Major military and political developments and major risks next (UPDATED!)

First, the biggest news of the day: the city of Izium fell to the Russian forces. Here is a map with Izium (Изюм) on the top and then two sets of arrows: the red ones show how the operational cauldron in the east of the Ukraine can be locked along the Lozovaia-Pavlograd while the black one shows the same option, but much closer to the surrounded Ukronazi forces along an Izium-Pokrovsk axis.

Which of the two happens first does not matter because the outcome is the same: Izium was the linchpin of the entire Ukie disposition and the last city to create not just a free fire zone in the slowly shrinking bottleneck for the Ukies to escape, but also the city which was defended by the best Ukrainian forces (the 81st UAF brigade).

Boris Rozhin (from whom I took the 2nd map) had this to say about what this means:

In the evening, reports came that our forces kicked the AFU out of Izyum (although there are reports that there is still some resistance in the southern districts of the city), where a part of the 81st brigade of the AFU defended in the city, which retreated from the city and is now covering it with artillery and mortars. The positions of the AFU were actively covered by aviation. Izyum is of decisive importance for the entire northern part of the AFU grouping in the Donbas. The highway has been cut (now with ends) Kharkiv-Izyum. Control over Izyum creates prerequisites for an offensive towards Slavyansk from the northwest. In addition, controlling Izyum, there are opportunities to attack Pavlograd and Barvenkovo, with further cutting of the Donetsk-Pavlograd highway, control over which will lead to a full operational encirclement of all AFU forces in the Donbas.

I full concur with this analysis. For all practical purposes that cauldron was about 80% closed “by fire” for a few days already, this time it will be closed by Russian/LDNR forces meeting each other somewhere in that big no mans land between Pavlograd and Donetsk.

There is also major combat actions happening along the south front, again, I will begin with a map:

The black line is the shape of the cauldron which the Russians apparently intend to lock around the Odessa region. I did not color the entire Ukie coastline in black, because I assume that it is currently under fire from the Russian Aerospace forces and the Black Sea Fleet. According to at least one video I saw yesterday, it looks like the Black Sea Fleet’s Large Amphibious Assault ships are now within visual range of Odessa. At the end of that envelopment Russia will have full control of the entire coastline from Dniester еstuary (or even from the Romanian border) to the Russian region of Rostov-on-the-Don!

A Mini Banderastan next?

Banderastan will now become a landlocked “country”!

This western region is where all the Western weapons and the international Nazi brigades are being concentrated right now. Some estimates say that the force levels defending this territory might be as high as 100’000 soldiers. Keep in mind that the highway between Kiev and Zhitomir has been cut off by Russian forces and that except for small roads, Kiev is slowly being encircled.

Whether Russia will bother with this region or not will largely depend on the West.

Right now the West has declared total informational and economic war on Russia. Furthermore, the USA has a long experience in creating “special pockets” from which to attack a country.

Finally, I would not exclude a NATO movement into the western Ukraine to “protect” the “innocent civilians” and “refugees fleeing the Russian massacres” being “murdered en masse” by the “indiscriminate bombing” by “Putin’s hordes”.

The rather pathetic zig-zags about “yes we will deliver fighters to the Ukraine” and “no we won’t deliver fighters to the Ukraine” seems to suggest that there are still a few folks left at Mons and the Pentagon who understand the risks of such a trick. They also must realize the futility of the entire concept (militarily speaking, this entire plan is absolutely ridiculous, do you need me to explain why?).

God willing, Lavrov will be able to get Kuleba to see the situation as it is and that Kuleba will be smart enough to understand that if these negotiations fail, there will be more negotiations in the future, only in even worse circumstances for the Ukies than today’s.

Next, political news. The Russians have now officially declared all the following countries as “hostile”:

All EU member States,
The USA
Australia
Albania
Andorra
Czech Republic
Great Britain (including Jersey, Anguilla, British Virgin Islands and Gibraltar)
Iceland
Canada
Liechtenstein
Micronesia
Monaco

New Zealand
Norway
Republic of Korea
San Marino
North Macedonia
Singapore
Taiwan
Ukraine
Montenegro
Switzerland
Japan

What does this mean?

At the time of writing (14:00 EST) all the Russians are saying is that there will be “financial and diplomatic consequences”. If you find out more details, please post them in the comments section!

I expect both diplomatic and economic sanctions to be announced in the coming days. And they will hurt like hell.

Next.

According to Maria Zakharova, Sergei Lavrov will meet his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmitrii Kuleba, in Turkey under the auspices of the Turkish Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu. According to the Turks, the topics will include “a ceasefire and a political solution”. This will happen “in the near future”. This was agreed between President Putin and President Erdogan, at the request of the latter. This will happen during the Antalya Diplomatic Forum.

While I was writing this I got the info that a Polish helicopter brought an Ukronazi delegation for talks in Belarus. According to the latest from Russian negotiators, it was yet another wasted day. But these negotiations will resume as soon as the Ukies get their latest orders from Uncle Shmuel.

The obvious problem is that the Ukie delegation has no authority, so all they do is show up, make some general statements of good will, then take all the (written) Russian proposals and say they need to retire for “consultations”. Obviously, these consultations are not with anybody in Kiev, but with the US and its EU colonies and the latter must at all costs get as many people dead (on both sides) as possible.

And yet, in spite of that, and while I don’t have much hope about any such talks, I will always welcome them: many thousands of lives could be saved if the Ukies capitulate. So even if the possibility to achieve anything is tiny, it is worth trying, even if just a few lives are saved.

However, in the mean time, there are numerous reports from many towns and cities under Nazi occupation of the local municipal authorities warning that anybody using a humanitarian corridor leading to the “occupier force” will be shot on sight and with no warning. There are many confirmed instances of such fleeing refugees being executed by the Ukronazis. The Western presstitutes are blaming it all on Russia, what else is new?

Conclusions:

From the point of view of Russian combat operations, today has been most successful and tomorrow promises an even quicker domino effect on the Ukrainian defenses pretty much everywhere except the far west (what I now call the mini-Banderastan).

Politically, the only important news is that Lavrov and Kuleba are supposed to meet soon.

And yet, I will end with an area of great concern to me.

Here is how I see it and PLEASE tell me I am wrong!

The Ukraine has lost the war, she will be disarmed and denazified
The West is waging total informational and economic war against Russia and believing much of its own propaganda (which is fantastically dangerous!)
The Western public has been sold nonsense about the Ukies being at the gates of Moscow and Russia being ready to surrender. Which means that when the reality will become undeniable there will be A LOT of VERY butthurt folks out there pointing fingers.
Economically speaking, Zerohedge put it best: “Carnage everywhere“!
Even much worse will be the folks who will try to still overturn this outcome. I am talking about the true nutcases in NATO (and in some sections of the USA ruling elites) which simply cannot even *imagine* that Russia holds all the cards, including the military one.
I can easily imagine, say, a Polish column with weapons and mercenaries crossing into the Ukraine and being wiped out by Russian missiles. I ask you this: what will NATO do next?

In fact, let me rephrase my question this way: is it at all possible that this war can end without a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia, keeping in mind that NATO cannot win and NATO cannot accept defeat?

Sadly, I don’t think so anymore, that kind of folly is a direct consequence of the Western PSYOPs which have convinced the folks in the West of two crucial things: 1) Russia cannot win and 2) Putin is bluffing.

I think that the folks in the Pentagon are smart enough to know that this is all bull, but the Eurorodents inside NATO and the EU?

Wouldn’t a military/political defeat of NATO in Banderastan not risk bringing down NATO as an organization?

Again, please tell me that I am wrong, but I don’t see how this war can stop before Russia shows NATO that nobody in Russia is bluffing and that any NATO country dumb enough to test that will be the target of missile strikes.

So, militarily, this war is pretty much over.

The future of a mini-Banderastan is impossible for me to guess.

But I am seriously concerned that this war might expand and directly involve NATO/EU countries.

And it might involve nuclear strikes by either/both sides.

So, please tell me I am wrong and that the West does still have enough brains to step back from this abyss?

Does it?

Andrei

UPDATE: for the first time Russian TV has shown the Donbass operational cauldron. I added the contours of this cauldron in the making with the think black line:

imo on March 07, 2022 · at 9:12 pm EST/EDT

“I just don’t see a third option.”

There is always a third “none of the above” option — and it is usually the eventual outcome.
The problem is we can’t see it easily.

The best thing to do with these statements is to posit them as scenarios (hypotheses) and put them aside in the “too easy” basket. Then work on new angles. Use metaphors.

Depending on type, or preference, or disposition, look at either the outcome (vision, end-state) or the process (action in progress).

What we know with more certainty than your 1 & 2 (above) is that what is happening now in the belligerent West is what should have happened in the 2007 global financial crisis. A dance with post-ideology reality. And its primary cause was the removal of the Glass Steagall Act in the USA under that criminal Bill Clinton. Again, a raid on the national savings to prop up a toxic “far from reality” Wall St Gangland project.

That smooth-tongued social-worker house-negro Obama (ref: Malcolm X) kicked the can down the road to benefit his mates and himself — he is of the “Tony Blair” sell-out type of that generation. That kicked-can landed here, in 2020-22.

It is complex (it is a complex):

1. On the real axis all that is happening on the ground is a localised Russian operation to clear out some unsavoury gangsters in the ‘hood. This is not a novel event. So, why all the western “Nato” hysteria this time?

Well, imo, it is because the bankrupt house of cards running their economies on fiat central bank play money, and claiming this is real GDP growth etc, is collapsing like a termite infested structure under the first strong winds of the storm season.

The historic technology differential advantages are gone since China (and to some extent, Russia) have emerged from their post-colonial malaise. That leaves only supply chain advantage — especially in a hungry and freezing world (or cooking hot without air-conditioning). The global (& economic) North and South poles are flipping.

Soon, as the local conditions worsen, both economic and social outrage/madness, the refugees from Africa and the ME will start to flow out of Europe and back to their homelands for a better life. Then who is going to clean the toilets and push the wheelchairs?

It is a dramatic picture to make the point that “bombs” going off is the least of the problems for a viable future on the edge of the new prosperous world with its center in the Russia-China-Iran triangle.

I’d suggest where the Europeans (& UK) are headed is a Libya scenario — that paradise lost due to nefarious wars of aggression by the Europeans & USA.

MY focus is not on a “technical-military” policing action in the Ukraine borderlands and a neutral/positive buffer zone from Finland to the Black Sea. Rather, it is on the receding sea levels (as per Java & Sri Lanka) as the post-tsunami wave heads towards the shore line. What I’m pointing out is, the only way to “see” forward is via penetrating metaphor and analogy.

2. In the imaginary axis (the non-real construction/narrative/discourse) domain there is all hell breaking out — mainly, imo, to try and front run the economic wave of destruction catalysed by (1) — or more, correctly, by the wests non-rational reaction to (1). Similar to the C19 event which the control-variable (Sweden & perhaps some of Africa) clearly demonstrated (even statistically) that there was little or no close correlation between the actual novel-virus (equivalent in effect to (1) above) and the hysterical government over-reactions. This 2020-21 public health crisis was a study in the mass-hysteria index. It has now shifted into the next gear.

As I have pointed out in previous (on the margins) posts that suggest models to use Total Risk can be seen as real-world Hazard + Outrage. At the moment, the Hazard is low outside Ukraine. The Russians clearly have no intention to do any more than they stated in writing back in Dec 2021. Clean out the ‘hood.

However, the huge non-rational over-reactions by the EU/Nato/USA (in (2) due to (1) have now started a new and wider-scale event. The economic South is rising up in hyper-outrage, not just because of risk of wheat and energy prices etc. There is also a huge post-colonial legacy of shame and anger – e.g., India at the moment. This is the equivalent of the tsunami wave coming ashore in Sri Lanka or Java. In itself, it is initially a (2) “non-real” (economic) event – i.e., words and discourse. But, given the right conditions these become and fold into real (1) type economic events. How this more hidden domain manifests on the day is hard to say and will be localised in the main. The constant will be chaos – and the law-&-control reaction to this – e.g., yellow vests in France & truckers in “Cuban-man’s” Canada.

And all because the criminal-class infested governments and control rooms of the West cannot raise a white flag and say Pax! Why not? Either they want to collapse and smash the game board rather than lose the game; or they are just insane blind with ‘woke’ ideology; or they have no agency and others are pulling their strings. The interpretation can only be a probability. I’d sit with 40%; 40%; 20% respectively at the moment.

What is certain, as Russian and China, (& Iran?) bunker down to feed and fuel and gadget-bling the rising Global South (India, Pakistan, Brazil, and …), is that crass-competitive criminal capitalism is gone and new “harmonised” South economy is on the rise. Rather than use the usual examples, I use Singapore – a “darling” city state department-store (with an airport) licking the UK-USA boots and a single government party that has never changed since post-ww2 post-colonial inception (far longer that Mr Putin!).

Show me a Singapore industry (airlines, communications, etc) that is not government owned or controlled. It is run on Chinese Confusion (& Triad) values. This is the future SE Asia wants. The India-China-Indonesia triangle covers the vast majority of the world’s population. They are physically and conceptually as far away from western Europe as the Europeans see them “down under” etc. Singapore aside, this was the centre of the world before European colonisation. It is simply returning to that status. Once these macro-dynamics are considered, and China-Russia hegemon resistance factored in, then the main issue for the European/Anglo-American world is loss of relevance to the future. The UK-criminals are not stupid – they read this when the USA pulled out of Afghanistan. That is why we saw such angry outrage outbursts in the UK parliament. They knew it was the tipping point – and not their way. We are simply now in another larger scale “angry outrage outburst” cycle.

To sum up your binary point of view and suggest a third. It is highly likely that nothing will happen once everyone settles down and looks out their windows. The Russians will simply finish cleaning out the borderland stables; LNG whatever surplus gas they have for NS2 (and maybe sanctioned NS1 if things get worse) after they pipe the quantities to China and sell on the spot market to “passing ships” off Kaliningrad; get on with life and Chinese bling; and wait and watch. It is the West and their failed economic theory and captured regulatory governments that are time-short. We are now in post-woke times.

As everyone settles down and looks out their windows, some will see pleasant futures. Others will see a Libyan landscape. I suspect, many in Europe will need to sell their wives and daughters. But I’m sure they will focus group that first. What we do know is, mass refugee movements will be managed by new bio-security (“have you got your authorised-only booster shot?”) systems. This will help protect the greener pastures from the panicked outflows.

It is not a conspiracy theory to suggest that Big-Tech systems of crowd control for Climate-Change refugees also just happens to work effectively for economic refugees. A White Flag cannot be raised by the crumbling empire: they have no cloth, no arms, and no brains. Hopefully the Russians (& others) will see this lack of real agency and adjust their programmes accordingly. I think their measured progress through Ukraine is a good sign.

The future outcomes are in individual nation-state resolve to pay the full cost of their actions (or inactions) – no amount of higher-level abstractions (e.g., Nato) will do anything other than suck their tax-money into the military-industrial-policing complex. A poodle complex that ‘yaps’ loud but cannot go to real war. Who is going to fund a war with Russia & China & Iran on $10+/gallon fuel prices? Suffer as they will, the UK will smile at the corners of their mouths because they can see the USA now falling into the same WW1-WW2 empire collapse scenario that lost them (the UK) their 19-20th century treasure.

605 Comments

amarynth on March 07, 2022 · at 4:27 pm EST/EDT

The ‘hostile’ or ‘unfriendly countries’ list is the countries that Russia will default on loans if any – or rather offer them rubles for payment – effectively a force majeure.
- Phil on March 07, 2022 · at 4:50 pm EST/EDT
  
  I agree with your analysis !
- cunhal on March 07, 2022 · at 5:13 pm EST/EDT
  
  This includes private russian companies for debts over a few million rubles.
- Patricia Ormsby on March 07, 2022 · at 6:38 pm EST/EDT
  
  Thank you for that explanation, Amarynth. I’ll pass this information along to my students in Japan until and unless it becomes illegal to do so.
  - Alabama on March 07, 2022 · at 7:04 pm EST/EDT
    
    As of today some Japanese co’s are trading w/russia, this is important as should Japan be forced to choose, they might well go with the Russians rather than sacrifice the energy card. Remember, bbls of oil not priced in dollars, are not so expensive at the pump, the only ones feeling the pain, are the western citizens.
    - Fred on March 08, 2022 · at 11:22 am EST/EDT
      
      Yeah right, ain’t no way Japan is splitting from the U.S. Their demographics are such they couldn’t even put together a very large standing army. Couple that with a very docile attitude of the younger Japanese.
  - Ugh... on March 07, 2022 · at 7:16 pm EST/EDT
    
    I don’t know of any personal ill will towards Japan from Russian people. I think many see the hand of US/UK in what’s going on.
    - spacewanderer on March 07, 2022 · at 8:09 pm EST/EDT
      
      Japan is currently a US colony. Former Japanese prime minister, Abe, was dethroned by the US after he rejected to go along with the US false flag operation against Iran(remember that Japanese oil ship attack by Israeli drone?). Abe said it was not Iran who attacked Japanese ship, and shortly after, out of nowhere, he suddenly resigned for “health-related reasons”. After his resignation, Japanese government has become much more hostile to China, and they started to aggressively implement various LGBT agendas come from the US upon its population while heavily strengthen its already severe feminist policies, which also has implemented by the US.
      - RodW on March 08, 2022 · at 7:08 am EST/EDT
        
        I agree that Japan is a vassal of the US, but I didn’t know about the trigger for his resignation that you mention. I’ll have to look into that.
        
        His successor Kishida seems like a total cipher. As you say, there seems to be a new emphasis on faggotry in Japanese media. Since Russia’s military action, the NHK (national broadcaster) news has become unwatchable. Every day, it’s begun without about 20 full minutes of atrocity propaganda and ‘analysis’ of the most partisan kind. I haven’t seen the like before, even regarding North Korea which does perhaps pose a nominal threat. It’s almost as if the Japanese people are being programmed for some sort of unprecedented development. Could it perhaps presage the involvement of the US military based in Japan against Russia? The thought seems preposterous, but why else are the Japanese being softened up like this? Or maybe they’re being prepared for the self-inflicted collapse of the Japanese economy, as a loyal vassal of the US and a proper member of the G7?
        
        repsinec on March 08, 2022 · at 8:04 am EST/EDT
        
        On Japan as a vassal of the US: the country inflicted economic sepukku in the late eighties with the Plaza Accords, when the Yanks ordered it to keep the Yen as strong as possible to choke the country’s export-oriented economy. What followed was one of the biggest stockmarket bubbles in history, followed by the “Lost Decade” of the 90s, which then morphed into the “Lost Generation” up to today. Capitalism and the free markets are fine so long as Uncle Schmuel benefits.
        
        John Doe on March 08, 2022 · at 11:28 am EST/EDT
        
        “…the NHK (national broadcaster) news has become unwatchable. Every day, it’s begun without about 20 full minutes of atrocity propaganda and ‘analysis’ of the most partisan kind. I haven’t seen the like before… It’s almost as if the Japanese people are being programmed for some sort of unprecedented development. Could it perhaps presage the involvement of the US military based in Japan against Russia?”
        
        Same here in Western Europe, news media has reached a new low. I think you and Andrei are onto something. News are bad as war propaganda is and this doesn’t presage good things. Ultimately, it’s not so much that the West doesn’t have “enough brains to step back from this abyss” (which they don’t, it’s called hubris) but there’s no way out economically. We’ve been in a deep, structrural crisis for a while. Remember that things were bad just before the pandemic hit and they aren’t any better, quite the opposite.
        
        C on March 08, 2022 · at 2:59 pm EST/EDT
        
        And I tought this kind of treatment (unwatchable biased propaganda) is only for colonies like Romania from where I’m…
    - Weather on March 07, 2022 · at 10:09 pm EST/EDT
      
      I’m from the US. Yes, mass censorship going on here. Putin demands are very reasonable , considering the Cuban missile crisis. I blame the west for this. They are so arrogant in their dealings it’s blinded them. This all could have been avoided, but these wicked liars running this country I guess want war…. the US doesn’t have 4 years left anyway and that’ll be by Gods design… judgment day. 2020sprophecy.com
      - Harry Stantz on March 08, 2022 · at 10:53 am EST/EDT
        
        Weather,
        
        Usually, a God-given dream is about something personal in YOUR own life.
        
        Wars, economic crashes, and natural disasters have been happening since man first sinned. Nothing new there. God is more interested in YOU, the individual.
        
        Hence, you might consider interpreting your dreams from a more personal angle. Here’s a good article.
        
        http://biblicisminstitute.wordpress.com/2015/11/14/the-meaning-of-dreams/
    - joey_n on March 08, 2022 · at 7:26 pm EST/EDT
      
      @Ugh…
      
      Well, I’ve seen certain readers of Russian-language RT and RIA show some anti-Japanese sentiment. One example was last August when news came out that the FSB ‘uncovered’ the use of Japanese biological warfare on Russian people. Granted, it’s not likely to reflect the average readership or even the population as a whole, but even so. Just because one hasn’t seen a phenomenon doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
- Mr SQ on March 07, 2022 · at 8:21 pm EST/EDT
  
  I am from Malaysia and I was surprised seeing Singapore on that list.
  
  What on earth was those Singaporeans were thinking and doing to get themselves on Russia’s enemy list?
  
  After some deeper reflection, might be not so surprising since the late Lee Kuan Yew turned Singapore into a component of the West supply chain, removed the natural Lingua franca which was Malay and force fed everybody to learn English and by the 90s went full steam ahead into the Neo-Con consensus.
  
  Also, Singapore is a money laundering country (the 1MDB case for example) so maybe there is some backroom thing and pressure.
  
  Curious to see how the Russian response will affect them in future since they are our next-door neighbour.
  
  Mr. SQ
  - Rufus Arrr on March 07, 2022 · at 8:47 pm EST/EDT
    
    I too am surprised by Singapore. I suspect that they would prefer to remain neutral, but took this stance out of some pressing necessity. One of which I am not aware of.
    - Giuseppe on March 08, 2022 · at 2:18 am EST/EDT
      
      Are you serious? Singapore has been an enclave of British intrusion and interference in Asia since they took over from the Dutch at the end of the 1700s. Singapore, in fact, buys all their weapons from the West and colloborates militarily with Israel very closely. Nothing else needs to be added.
  - Prof. Spudd on March 07, 2022 · at 9:40 pm EST/EDT
    
    Singapore apparently tried its hardest to join the Anglosphere, including by adopting its foreign policy.
  - Noel on March 08, 2022 · at 12:19 am EST/EDT
    
    As a Singaporean I am disappointed and disgusted with the limbless leadership who rather be a ‘footstool’ of the US and not stand in union with the rest of ASEAN. 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️
  - aremarf on March 08, 2022 · at 5:53 am EST/EDT
    
    Hello friends
    
    First, immense thanks to Saker for hosting the wonderful site and community. I have learned a lot from here in Singapore over many years but this is my first time posting.
    
    There is a bit of a demographic divide in Singapore. The more educated sections of society, who have many years of schooling in anglophone countries and systems, consume a lot of anglophone media, news, etc are more aligned with the US. They also tend to be younger. The less educated, older and historically side-lined Chinese-speaking people align more with China views, and in this recent conflict, they align more with Russia than Ukraine (due to consuming China media, probably).
    
    There is some degree of difference in their approval of our foreign policy. Some of the latter group have felt that our Prime Minister offends regional nations too often: quite a while ago, he made bad jokes and offensive comments at various times, e.g. that China was so polluted one just needed to open a window to have a smoke, or, regarding farmers dumping pig carcasses in the river, that one just needed to turn on the tap to get pork soup; more recently he offended Cambodia and Vietnam when praising a Thai general-politician, and very recently comments about lawlessness in the India legislative provoked a response too. Singapore was also widely criticised in China media for backing the US view on the Spratly / Diaoyu Islands.
    
    Overall, views here are divided, but the pro-China group is both numerically smaller as well as less influential in society.
    
    Also, I can confirm that other commentors who mentioned our close military cooperation with the US and her client states in the region e.g. Australia, New Zealand, etc are correct. The US navy docks here regularly at Sembawang Naval Base (supposedly a conspiracy to bomb it by Jemaah Islamiya was discovered and nipped in the bud, in the early 2000s). We also buy military hardware mostly from NATO countries + Israel indeed (and we also sell to Myanmar – a sore point for some local liberals).
    
    Singapore is also always welcoming of US trade deals, and of free trade deals in general, e.g. the TPP.
    
    Overall, I think Singapore behaves like a typical US client state, like Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan. I guess the difference is that some locals believe (quite justifiably, in my opinion), that Singapore ought to be more neutral, in view of China’s ascendancy in the future. However, Singapore has been a one-party state since 1965 (some argue 1959), and if there is no change in that, it’s likely that as a country we will remain a US client state.
  - Ash on March 08, 2022 · at 12:42 pm EST/EDT
    
    Probably;
    
    1. Singapore was among the first few countries to condemn the invasion before UNGA
    
    2. Malaysian air force with its Su30MKM was not given a slot at the recently held air show in Singapore and had to fly home.
  - spoonful on March 09, 2022 · at 8:00 am EST/EDT
    
    I thought Singapore was a “protectorate” of the UK like the Aussies and NZ – is that not correct?
- B.F. on March 08, 2022 · at 12:23 am EST/EDT
  
  amarynth
  
  You will notice that the “Hostile List” does not include Germany, which says plenty (not only does Germany have investments in Russia, it cannot function without Russian energy, especially gas). Chancellor Scholz has openly stated that Germany will not cancel the import of Russian gas, while on the other hand the EU (Ursula Van Der Linden), has stated that the EU will look towards other sources of energy, namely gas, which is laughable nonsense. These other sources do not exist. The US can only provide limited amounts at double price, something that analysts have been stating for years, while Europe’s complete gas requirements can only be met by Russia, or by exports being diverted from Asia to Europe, and you can only imagine what the political consequences would be of that being done.
  
  As for Russian military progress, I am very happy with the achievements of the Russian military. Many in the West have misunderstood (intentionally or unintentionally) Russian tactics, thinking Russia has trouble winning. They seem to forget that Russia is not replicating World War Two, using all it has. On the contrary, Russian intention has been – so far – to use limited amounts of fire power and avoid civilian casualties, as Russian regard Ukrainians as Russians, the exception being Western Ukraine, the former Galicia. As The Saker has stated, when Ukrainians inside the cauldrons start surrendering, the Western propaganda machine will have a tough time explaining things.
  - Thorsten Huber on March 08, 2022 · at 1:29 am EST/EDT
    
    Sie werden feststellen, dass die „Feindliste“ Deutschland nicht enthält, was viel aussagt.
    
    “ALLE EU-Mitgliedstaaten.”
    
    Google translation,MOD:
    You’ll notice that the “enemy list” doesn’t include Germany, which is saying a lot.
    
    “ALL EU Member States.”
    - B.F. on March 08, 2022 · at 1:47 am EST/EDT
      
      Thorsten Huber
      
      Apologies. My mistake.
  - B.F. on March 08, 2022 · at 1:34 am EST/EDT
    
    The price of crude oil has risen to 130 dollars per barrel. The price of gas has also risen. The West implemented sanctions against Russia. However, only a number of Russian banks have been suspended from SWIFT, the remaining ones being used for payments of Russian oil and gas. It would appear that the West is paying for Russian military expenses in Ukraine. What irony.
    - peterd on March 08, 2022 · at 11:01 am EST/EDT
      
      “What irony”
      An irony that appears for some German politicians totally unacceptable now (Norbert “Rottweiler” Röttgen, CDU, and The Green Party in Germany are going through paroxysms of anger and stomach churning feelings of mauvaise foi, reciting the following kind of song:
      
      If we were to solve our “fossil dependence on Putin” with a kind of “shock therapy”, this would then accelerate climate protection in the medium term. “Can we turn off Putin’s gas money tap? Yes, we can! Yes, we have to! We can and we must do without Russian gas and oil and coal.”
      
      “The costs of this shock therapy are likely to be high”, the German Greens say, “If 100 billion euros are immediately possible for rearmament and another 20 billion per year, then this sort of monies should also be available for peace and climate protection.” Or, they say, “do we want to wait until Putin turns off the gas tap of his own accord – or until global warming sends us the next receipt in the format of summer floods? One way or another, we have to get away from coal, oil and gas – especially from Russia. So, let’s do it now – whatever it takes – no matter what it costs!”
      
      The idealism of the Green Party is very clear to hear and sadly this is right now the main tenor of German Foreign policy. Not forgetting the VCs Robert Habecks recent trip to the US when he announced, I jest not, “a new renaissance in the transatlantic alliance.” Oh, his dissertation was on “ The nature of literature. On the genre-theoretical justification of literary aesthetics”(2000). The possible failure of Russian gas supplies, which currently cover 55 percent of total German gas consumption, Habeck thinks, rather like Don Quixote’s attack on windmills that he believed to be ferocious giants, can actually be won back by building more windmills and investing in renewable Green hydrogen.
      Germany is doomed. I think it was Alexander Mercouris who recently said, quite correctly, this is the worst set of German politicians to be leading a government since WW2.
  - RLE on March 08, 2022 · at 2:11 am EST/EDT
    
    Also France and Poland are not present. Italy, Belgium, Nederlands are not present also. Seems like Russians are still hoping for better relations with “old” continental Europe ?
    - esskumar on March 08, 2022 · at 2:47 am EST/EDT
      
      They are included in “All EU countries”
    - Merandor on March 08, 2022 · at 2:51 am EST/EDT
      
      The list is ALL EU member states, so they are listed just indirectly
    - Red on March 08, 2022 · at 3:00 am EST/EDT
      
      RLE all EU-members are included…
    - Old Microbiologist on March 08, 2022 · at 3:27 am EST/EDT
      
      All EU countries!!
      
      I am in Hungary which is dancing a delicate dance between Russia and the EU but also has a huge stake in the outcome as they would dearly love to get back some of the land stolen from them after the Trianon Treaty. This was the issue that got Hungary to willingly be part of the German Army in WWII after being promised to get all the stolen land restored.
      
      Also, Hungary set up a separate gas deal through the Turk Stream more or less divorcing them from dependence on Russian gas transiting Ukraine. They are also getting a new nuclear power plant from Russia plus Russia is a major export market for Hungarian products which are more or less banned from sales in the EU. Hungarians in Ukraine are treated equally badly by the Ukrainians (language, dual citizenship, etc.) and no Hungarians in any regions appended forcibly to other nations have assimilated even after 100 years. Hungary would never vote to allow Ukraine membership in either the EU or NATO but this only holds as long as Viktor Orban is Prime Minister.
      
      The next election is April 3rd and the US is assaulting Hungary hard and blatantly interfering in the election here dumping millions in advertising as well as an obvious currency war against the Hungarian Forint which has fallen 30% in the past 2 weeks against the dollar and Euro. I always laugh at the US complaining about other nations interfering in US elections as they do it everywhere blatantly. However, in the polls, Orban is still 10 points ahead but Hungarians are notable poll liars so you can’t rely on polling data. What is interesting is the opposition candidate Markay-Zay is an obvious US puppet so Hungarians are drifting towards Jobbik as the alternative which used to be the Hungarian neo-nazis who have rebranded themselves as conservatives. They were marching in Brown shirts shouting death to Jews, Gypsies, and Gays 12 years ago so I can’t imagine they have really changed much. The Fidez party is terribly corrupt and needs to go but the only serious alternative other than letting the US rule Hungary is the Jobbik candidate whose political platform is identical to Fidez so somewhat palatable to Hungarians who are enjoying economic prosperity under Orban. Two main issues will keep Markay-Zay out of office, Muslim immigration (150 years of Turkish occupation and 1.5 million dead Hungarians has ended that permanently), and Gay rights. These are non-starters here under any leadership. Only the liberal or academic (Soros aligned) elite support him (not the rich as they support Fidez). Really, Hungary would be better off leaving the EU and aligning with Russia and China similar to Serbia. The EU has blocked all funding to Hungary over the Gay rights issue so I see no advantages to staying in the EU now. The anti-Gay sentiment here is deeply engrained and no amount of propaganda will change that. At a minimum I see them leaving NATO within a year if Orban stays in power. So, as far as the US goes he must be replaced as an existential threat to US security as they like to always say about anyone who opposes them in any way. I wonder if he realizes just how much danger he is in now?
      - Danilo on March 08, 2022 · at 11:31 am EST/EDT
        
        Would be happy to see Hungary and Serbia connected as alays and part of new world order together with China and Russia. That would be benefitial im many crucial ways for both our nations. Greetings from Serbia.
      - Realist on March 08, 2022 · at 1:43 pm EST/EDT
        
        Victor Orban is A#1 in my book. He’s decided who are his friends and those of his country based on logic and morals, rather than the craven fear exhibited by the rest of the Nato countries who simply bow and scrape to the whims of the American fascists. I hope that Hungary can secede from the EU but especially from Nato and the thugs who run it. Nobody needs to reformulate a new Warsaw Pact any more than a resurrected Soviet Union. Just start acting like normal peaceable people once again rather than the haters and warmongers that Uncle Sam demands. The sooner the whole of Europe tells the American hegemon to get out and go to hell the happier will be the future of the human race.
    - anodinous on March 08, 2022 · at 3:41 am EST/EDT
      
      Its there. All EU coutries.
- Chris* on March 08, 2022 · at 3:30 am EST/EDT
  
  “The Russians have now officially declared all the following countries as “hostile”:”
  
  Missing in the list, TAIWAN (China)!
  
  “Why are the questions of war and peace still left almost exclusively to men?
  Reckless sacrifice of human life and the destruction of so much that mankind has built up over centuries.
  Are we incapable of valuing human life?
  No mother should see flowers growing on the grave of her children. ”
  A friend wrote it…
  I sent her back videos of Taiwan leader ordering weapons from USA, next Ukronazi women in combat gear shouting murderous war propaganda, and Brussels gangster Madame screaming for Russia sanctions and war rearmament.
  I have given up trying to convince brainwashed people, it is pointless, I distance myselves from them, i prefer reading a good book instead of pointless conversation.
  
  Yesterday I saw a video of a Russian woman burning her passport in a Western country.
  
  No, unfortunately, women are not smarter than men.
  
  Happy Women’s Day!
  - Shane on March 08, 2022 · at 5:44 am EST/EDT
    
    No, unfortunately, women are not smarter than men.
    
    Well some of them are, some of them aren’t. I’m surprised nobody has said the same.
  - ciaran on March 08, 2022 · at 12:45 pm EST/EDT
    
    “Why are the questions of war and peace still left almost exclusively to men?
    
    I tried to reply, “Margaret thatcher” , but my comment is stuck in moderation, being an ethnic Irish person born in Glasgow, Scotland, considering myself in no way British and now realising that not everybody gets Billy Connelly, Kevin Bridges or Frank Boyle or my sense of humour all I can say is – Love you mum. Happy Womens Day!
- Chris* on March 08, 2022 · at 3:32 am EST/EDT
  
  Sorry, Taiwan is in the list! Missed it.
Ranko on March 07, 2022 · at 4:31 pm EST/EDT

Russian army needs to speed this up if for no other reason then to prevent more people from dying because the only way to stop all of this is to destroy the Nazi’s the fastest and soonest possible.
- Edward Abbey on March 07, 2022 · at 5:41 pm EST/EDT
  
  Is that so? Good thing Russians don’t partake in that nasty captogen/meth, and aren’t known for hasty behavior. Can only go as fast as is efficient and purposeful, successful to do so, yeah?
- logan on March 07, 2022 · at 6:41 pm EST/EDT
  
  Being hasty would just play into their hands. Frankly the people themselves are partially responsible for allowing their society to be so subverted in the first place. If you’re so complacent that you allow for open Nazis funded by a hostile foreign puppet master to rule over you then it crosses over into negligence in my opinion. You always get the rulers you deserve.
  - the pair on March 07, 2022 · at 7:00 pm EST/EDT
    
    been thinking this as well. i can say from the many “eastern europeans” i’ve known that there’s a lot of cold war residue even among millenials. if they don”t HATE russia they usually HATE germany. 30% have been to either country.
    
    those kinds of grudges and revanchism lead to stupid choices.
  - Jon L on March 07, 2022 · at 7:35 pm EST/EDT
    
    As an individual though, how do you go about trying to remove an imbedded murderous group without being killed yourself – as many were. Leaving the country was an option for those who could and millions took that option, but the rest either became part of the system, or like the rest, loved their country, didn’t want to move, stayed in their local area and quietly did what they could and just hunkered down and hoped to survive….
    As a NZer living in Australia, with a criminally corrupt government and media, at least I can speak up without the risk of being ‘eliminated’. A lot of Ukrainians couldn’t
    - Rafael on March 07, 2022 · at 8:14 pm EST/EDT
      
      “As a NZer living in Australia, with a criminally corrupt government and media, at least I can speak up without the risk of being ‘eliminated”
      
      How long will that last?
      - eagle eye on March 08, 2022 · at 5:53 am EST/EDT
        
        As long as you can get your voice heard via a corrupt media. Not long in other words.
        
        Another expat Kiwi in the land of Oz.
    - Realist on March 08, 2022 · at 12:03 am EST/EDT
      
      With so many ethnic Russians throughout Ukraine, especially in Novorusiya shouldn’t there be an underground helping the liberators of the RF Army? Any data on the number of such Russian ethnics who have voluntarily surrendered to their liberators? Would they number in the thousands, tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands, or even the millions? Or are they just hunkered down, threatened by the Nazi battalions?
      
      I recall that during the two offenses into the Donbas–both efficiently repelled–the Ukie army had terrible morale with many conscripts fleeing the country rather than fighting. Is this no longer a liability for the Ukie high command? Is it something latent that may break out again once certain casualty limits are reached? Are these factors ameliorated by the Ukies or data the public is not being apprised of?
      - R on March 08, 2022 · at 4:59 am EST/EDT
        
        The most horrible battles are actually in the regions with ethnical Russians, i.e. Russians fight Russians. Nothing new here, but it should be recognized as it is and addressed accordingly instead of falling into a false line, which would undermine Russian credibility. That happened before in history. When it is over in the ethnical Russian regions, the western Ukrainians are not going to fight so fiercely, although they were and are the biggest initiators of all this.
      - aremarf on March 08, 2022 · at 6:06 am EST/EDT
        
        I saw on Telegram (Colonel Cassad), that locals try to remain anonymous when aiding and receiving aid from Russian forces, for fear of neo-Nazi retaliation, both immediately and in the long-term after Russian forces depart. So, Russia’s oft-repeated commitment to denazification is heartening and I hope it works.
        
        As for the UA morale and conscripts, I recall seeing, also at the same Telegram channel, that the initially unwilling Ukrainian army had been changed by long deployment in the region. Eight years of shooting at each other, even if initially reluctant, often does that to people, I’d think. Also, I saw a note once that the UA troops garrisoned at each city are not locals. Also, that neo-Nazis were embedded with regular UA forces to ensure compliance (this was earlier in the conflict – recently I see posts about UA forces fighting neo-Nazis occasionally).
        
        R on March 08, 2022 · at 7:20 am EST/EDT
        
        All is true.
        Eight years since the coup did enormous damage, especially to those who were children or teenagers then adults now. Eight lost years for/by Russia, flirting, oozing, trying to make friends with the collective West, deluding themselves that this is somehow possible. Do you know how many cursed Putin for abandoning them?
        I noticed however that almost all captured Ukrainian soldiers are Russians – by names, language, attitude.
        
        Albertus on March 08, 2022 · at 2:19 pm EST/EDT
        
        How can we blame these locals ? They don’t know what tomorrow is made of. If the RF forces return to Crimea and Donbass republics after a peace agreement, these locals who have shown support to Russians will be harassed, tortured and killed by the Ukrainians nationalists, just as hundreds or thousands have been after 2014 in Slaviansk and other places of the initial uprising of the separatists. So it is fully understandable that they remain so neutral and discrete.
        The game changer would be if Russia declares clearly and openly that there is no going back. That the objective of the operation is a liberation of east/southern Ukraine, i.e. Malorossia, from Luhansk to Transnistria, and that RF forces will support Malorossia militias in peacekeeping and protection of borders as long as needed. No going back. Only this would free up the locals to actively assist the Special Operation, as they would be certain that the RF forces stay to protect them and their families. Land Bridge until Transnistria, full take over of the Nortern littoral and no going back.
        
        R on March 09, 2022 · at 1:29 am EST/EDT
        
        Aggree, ambiguous Russian politics is not helping.
  - Michel on March 07, 2022 · at 8:03 pm EST/EDT
    
    What would you do if a bunch if heavily armed nazi thugs showed up where you live?
    
    This is what happened here.
    - Bob Valdez on March 08, 2022 · at 5:15 am EST/EDT
      
      Are you asking a rhetorical question, or a serious one? I could tell you what would happen to them, but the mods might cersor me for it. It would involve accurate gunfire from strategic positioning, concealment and cover.
  - Doug Hillman on March 07, 2022 · at 9:05 pm EST/EDT
    
    @logan, I suppose that would apply to us captive yanks as well. Fine with me if I die when the Neocon yoke is finally sundered. I’ll die happy like the old man shoveling tanker sludge in Waterworld as the flare drops, “oh, thank God”. I despise our Ziocon rulers but am fairly helpless to depose them. I’m sure that’s true of the majority of Ukrainians as well. I believe Putin understands that, and it’s why he’s moving at Treebeard’s pace … not too hasty.
  - Shane on March 08, 2022 · at 5:50 am EST/EDT
    
    I’m not so sure it is fair to blame the people. They are at a complete disadvantage in every way on every level, apart from numbers and numbers don’t mean anything if a society is too brainwashed to even see a problem to begin addressing it.
- Alberto Osejo on March 07, 2022 · at 7:42 pm EST/EDT
  
  That is the question that really matters.
  Uky, nato can not win and will not win. Europe is just a poodle with no shame.
  What will the pupeteers that manage the world thug (usa) will do?
  Who really kmows..
  - Felix Dzerzhinsky on March 07, 2022 · at 11:04 pm EST/EDT
    
    US Imperialism is now VERY dangerous.
  - norecovery on March 07, 2022 · at 11:34 pm EST/EDT
    
    Whitney Webb has information on what the world thugs will do (are doing now) — a terrorist insurgency, as they have done in Syria and elsewhere.
    
    https://unlimitedhangout.com/2022/03/investigative-reports/ukraine-and-the-new-al-qaeda/
    - BM on March 08, 2022 · at 3:24 am EST/EDT
      
      Maybe the elites’ plan is to start with nazi insurgency in western Ukraine, gradually allow the nazi armed insurgency to spread throughout the whole of western Europe (seen as feature not bug), thereby killing it as a competitor to the USA and progenitor of the holy chaos. Not sure if the spreading of the same insurgency into the USA would be seen as a feature or a bug, probably the former. Don’t expect sane intentions from these people, they are not sane.
      
      I can’t think of any other plausible result of what the elites have already started to do with their beloved insurgents, so that must be the plan.
    - Dave Hansell on March 08, 2022 · at 4:50 am EST/EDT
      
      A question arises in regard to this aspect of Western/US/NATO backed, trained and supplied insurgency contingency.
      
      It seems reasonable to anticipate this will, at the very least, form one of the responses from Zone A.
      
      Recent Official statements from the RF have made clear that any interference (is this the most appropriate term?) in the present operation/(Ukraine?) launched/originating from another/neighbouring States territory will be considered a hostile act by that State. With clear implications of escalation of hostilities with that State.
      
      This statement and its intent appears to have been widely interpreted as pertaining to ‘speculation’ of loaned military aircraft launched from third party States into the Ukraine with the specific intent to attack Russian military forces by proxy.
      
      The question in regard to such an insurgency is whether the Official Statement alluded to above would also incorporate Official policy towards an insurgency launched from a third neighbouring/regional State and supplied by other States?
      
      In other words, would this lead to the type of escalation which the Saker is concerned about in which any insurgency launched by proxy will be considered a hostile act of War against the RF by those backing the insurgency in the same way as military aircraft launched into Ukrainian airspace from the West?
      
      Thanks in anticipation.
- iR on March 07, 2022 · at 8:20 pm EST/EDT
  
  Patience is important. This situation seems to rapidly move from a millitary conflict to the largest hostage situation the world has ever seen. Put them under siege, cut their communications. Serve them russian food and vodka, russian radio & TV of life outside the prison … until they surrender. Undo 30 years of re-nazification. Their practically allready in a re-education camp volantarily.
Z on March 07, 2022 · at 4:31 pm EST/EDT

In terms of facts you only talk about Izum for today. Nowhere else.
The rest is in the future tense , ie what you hope will happen, not what’s happened today
- moderato cantabile on March 07, 2022 · at 5:28 pm EST/EDT
  
  Cher Z…seriez vous un “zombie”….
  Que demandez vous au juste…que le Président Putin vous envoie à l’avance ces plans militaires ?….Biden, sors de ce corps…
peter on March 07, 2022 · at 4:31 pm EST/EDT

Must see! Douglas McGregor on Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5Bmv9LzhNk
- timbers on March 07, 2022 · at 6:16 pm EST/EDT
  
  McGregor seems to closely match what I’ve seen here and other good sites – and this comes from Fox no less (I don’t follow US corporate conglomerate media but sites like Naked Capitalism and others like it). Being American McGregor’s sanity gives me hope your military hasn’t lost touch with reality as has our politics. What is striking is how disappointed the “news” guy asking question was and he not only didn’t hide it, but felt compelled to so out loud which really wasn’t necessary as he wore his disappointment on his sleeve. People with views that go against media narratives don’t usually get invited back to be guests again. Many figure that out quick which why they are so likely to re-enforce narratives.
  - John Ravenwood on March 07, 2022 · at 7:10 pm EST/EDT
    
    Would it surprise anyone if we don’t see Col. McGregor interviewed as an expert again?
  - Prof. Spudd on March 07, 2022 · at 7:27 pm EST/EDT
    
    I’ve noticed a difference in the the dissident Right in the United States versus other English-speaking countries… Americans are more willing to sympathize with Putin and give him the benefit of the doubt, whereas in the Commonwealth they still reflexively side with Ukraine. I’m not exactly sure why that is.
    
    Perhaps it’s because of the seething contempt with which the American dissident Right holds the Biden regime and the Democrat party. And it doesn’t help the American regime that most of the high-profile Republicans who’ve made anti-Russia comments (Lindsey Graham, Romney, Mike Pence) have been derided as RINOs [closet Democrats / sellouts] for years.
    - flaart bllooger on March 07, 2022 · at 8:34 pm EST/EDT
      
      i think the reason the dissident right is more sympathetic to putin and russia lies in the fact that they found out they were lied to by bush jr. it was their kids that came back in body bags for no good reason. once you find out that your government lies you into wars, its not so easy to put the toothpaste back in the tube. republicans started to become anti war, if you will. and when obama destroyed libya for no good reason it upset them. when he tried to start a war in syria, the right was acually quite impressed with how putin handled that situation and kept the u.s. neocons and neolibs at bay. no one except liberal progressives believed the maidan crap precisely because john mccain supported it. and here we are.
      - Shane on March 08, 2022 · at 5:54 am EST/EDT
        
        I think you have hit the nail on the head.
    - Bethany Ogdon on March 08, 2022 · at 12:58 am EST/EDT
      
      One reason is the non-stop “Russiagate” propaganda during the whole of Trump’s tenure in the White House.
- Kevin O’Malley on March 07, 2022 · at 6:31 pm EST/EDT
  
  Must read by Archbishop Carlo Viganò, former papal nuncio and Catholic theologian:
  
  In a nutshell: #StandingWithUkraineGovt = #StandingWithSatan
  
  And: #StandingWithRussia = #StandingWithChrist
  
  In the 30+ page declaration Archbishop Viganò references the demonically corrupt Ukraine government, the CIA-trained and backed Azov Battalion Nazis, the bioweapons labs in Ukraine, the wars crimes in Donbass from 2014 to present, et al. The most powerful piece I’ve read on this Russia-Ukraine issue.
  
  https://www.marcotosatti.com/2022/03/07/declaration-of-msgr-carlo-maria-vigano-on-the-russia-ukraine-crisis/
  - exiled off mainstreet on March 07, 2022 · at 7:11 pm EST/EDT
    
    I saw a version of the Archbishop’s statement on Lifesitenews.com. The Archbishop’s article covers all bases with an accurate view of the situation based on reality and a thorough study and knowledge of the history of the situation. The Archbishop exemplifies the best in Catholicism and is obviously a decent, honourable virtuous man in contrast to some of the establishment hacks that make up the dominant element of the church up to those running the vatican who have often reduced themselves to supporting the ultimate levels of corruption, degeneracy and abuse of power of various sorts.
    For those who have read absolutely nothing about the situation, the Archbishop’s article is a useful introduction of all problem areas, including links to other issues, such as the medicofascism problem being shoved aside by war fears.
  - Thomas Turk on March 08, 2022 · at 4:47 am EST/EDT
    
    Discussion on an imaginary deity’s kid or an imaginary hell-keeper is time wasted. The rest looks factual.. but we’ve already digested all that.
- Bethany Ogdon on March 08, 2022 · at 12:55 am EST/EDT
  
  That was interesting. Wonder why Varney had McGregor on for an interview? Maybe Varney’s court jester act he had going there is just a cover for getting McGregor’s opinion and information disseminated by the corporate media? Whatever the case, almost unbelievable to hear McGregor’s rational assessment on the msm.
Andrew Celestina on March 07, 2022 · at 4:32 pm EST/EDT

My deepest appreciation Saker, for all that you are, and all that you do for us.

A question: Does this blog exist in a distributable, archived form, with all its posts and comments? I want this vital historical record to be preserved for posterity.

Andrew Celestina
(Australian/Slovene)
Tec on March 07, 2022 · at 4:32 pm EST/EDT

Estou preocupado com o acúmulo de armamentos na Polônia e tropas dos EUA na Europa, isso pode não acabar bem.
:-/
Todd on March 07, 2022 · at 4:32 pm EST/EDT

I haven’t commented in years. I appreciate the site.
Unforunately, I believe you are correct Andrei.
I also live in the USA. The large majority of Americans cannot even tolerate the idea that the USA is not numero uno. Thus, we’ve seen the batshit crazy ideas being pumped out their from American politicians and talking heads:
Assassinate Putin! No fly zone!
Send weapons, guns, planes.
Who really decides on what NATO and the US military do? We don’t know, do we. We just know it ain’t “Biden.”
I think there is immense pressure to give Russian a black eye, and destroy her.
Thus, it will probably escalate further than most would think.
- bluedogg on March 07, 2022 · at 7:00 pm EST/EDT
  
  Oh, I don’t know here where I live (Upstate New York) it seems people aren’t that concerned, the younger generation simply don’t give a shit and except for a few of the older generation why it’s pretty much of an even split, as they are mostly concerned with the high cost of living which inflation is dumping on us. The reason politicians are talking shit is that the people have allowed them to get away with it for so long, voting them back into office time after time until it’s reached the point that no one really pays any attention to them.
- Prof. Spudd on March 07, 2022 · at 9:48 pm EST/EDT
  
  It’s Democrats and Boomers who are the most anti-Russia.
  
  Democrats because they’re a social justice mob trying to “cancel” Russia.
  
  Boomers because they still associate Russia with the Soviet Union, and believe the United States is the good guys and Russia the bad guys.
  
  Unfortunately, combined they’re a majority of Americans. Fortunately, they’re not the future, or the fighting-age men.
  - Amos on March 08, 2022 · at 3:12 am EST/EDT
    
    I’m a lefty and where I sit most of the people harping about the need to hurt and kill russians are republicans and good ol’ paleoconservatives. We even had a rally in front of one evangelical church down here, where people were equating Putin and Russia with Satan and Gog-magog. So basically your argument about democrats spearheading the war effort is a complete lie and fabrication. Just a few weeks back, one senators from the deep south – Mississipi was advocating for a missile strike on Russia… Lunatics and christians evangelicals begging for nuclear war… Matter of fact, the GOP controlled senate’s currently moving with legislation to further add sanctions on russian people, they think the dems have not gone far enough with their hysteria. Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Hawley are not boomers. The facts speak for themselves…
    - Prof. Spudd on March 08, 2022 · at 9:33 am EST/EDT
      
      Sure, there’s the brainwashed Zionist section of the GOP base. But Zionist Evangelical Protestantism (and its gnostic cousin, Mormonism) is definitely not trendy anymore like it was in the ’90s and ’00s, hence my remarks about “Boomers”.
      
      Furthermore, it’s actually rather leftist and normie compared to the actual dissident Right channels I keep track of. Younger right-wing men usually consider it lame, evangelical Protestants are increasingly rare, and the type who blindly support Israel are basically nonexistent.
      
      To put it another way, blind support for Israel is the normie right’s version of social justice, which the dissident Right rejects just as much as the leftist variety.
      
      ZEP still definitely has money and power in the Republican party, and is loud, but its bark is louder than its bite. Actual grass-roots support for it is tepid, and a far cry from the Dubya years. Otherwise, either Jeb Bush, or if not him then Ted Cruz, would have decisively beaten Trump in the 2016 primaries.
- Cato the Uncensored on March 08, 2022 · at 8:53 am EST/EDT
  
  Yes, a lot of Americans are still butt-hurt after getting whupped by the Russkies back in the ‘80s in Operation Red Dawn.
  
  Seriously, Hollywood did a great job of pumping up the Russians as the bad guys over the years.
  
  One of the biggest missed opportunities in history will be not inviting Russia into NATO, but a few Western oligarchs wouldn’t have expanded their already obscene fortunes without having held the Russkie Menace in reserve in case their other wars of terror against the Western peoples weren’t panning out
dave on March 07, 2022 · at 4:33 pm EST/EDT

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1500787906788663297/pu/vid/288×640/r6Omk4HNJu6KB5x4.mp4?tag=12

Ukrainian sapper filmed by local resident laying a bottle of incendiary spirit/explosive on a kid’s playground to organize a false flag on peaceful targets
eddiemd on March 07, 2022 · at 4:33 pm EST/EDT

I have hope that the Russians will capture US special forces and SAS inside the eastern front along the Donbass. When these Ukie forces get pinched down, the foreign actors will be captured. There could also be US .gov contractors lurking around there also.

Do you have back up ISP address or just the naming?
- Yoni Reinon on March 07, 2022 · at 6:10 pm EST/EDT
  
  They have captured them many times!!! Unfortunately they released them almost inmediately. Will now be different?
  - eddiemd on March 08, 2022 · at 6:34 am EST/EDT
    
    Show your sources.
JackJC on March 07, 2022 · at 4:34 pm EST/EDT

“So, please tell me I am wrong and that the West does still have enough brains to step back from this abyss?”

No. It does not. Exceptionalist ideology has trumped all logic.

Many years ago, Britain put the death penalty in for even petty crimes. What happened was an increase in murders as ‘in for a penny, in for a pound.’ Same mindset applies here, if the western elites are going to lose all, may as well burn it all down. But I’m feeling especially pessimistic today dealing with ridiculous part shortages on simple items.
- Garp on March 07, 2022 · at 6:49 pm EST/EDT
  
  Same concept in poker. Once you have contributed so much to a pot, it takes a lot of discipline to walk away when your hand doesn’t improve and your opponents are betting big …. Called being “ pot committed”.
Rodrigo on March 07, 2022 · at 4:34 pm EST/EDT

BBC – Brasil; soldado ukraniano com símbolo nazi.
Paul Damascene on March 07, 2022 · at 4:36 pm EST/EDT

Thanks, Andrei. You have every reason to worry about a direct confrontation w/ NATO, the crazies in the basement have the warmongers in the media broadcasting their ‘close the skies’ extinction rays to the hyper suggestible masses. For the politicians it may soon be untenable not to attack.

Certainly the nuclear threshold is a possibility but there are a few rounds of escalation one could imagine first–but so much of this is beginning to look like an open-source stampede to war, those escalation rounds could follow each other in very short intervals.

If & when a direct NATO destruction of significant manpower / material happens (a jet shot down, for example) then one such escalation is for Russia to communicate via hotline then directly to the world’s media, that the crew of the HMS Queen Elizabeth II, the UK aircraft carrier, newly returned to Portsmouth, has X hours to abandon ship, as a Khinzal, without a warhead will be punched through the carrier deck. That may cool the ‘close the skies’ crowd–who seem to think this is mostly a one-way punishment game, and have never seen war at home.

Next demonstration target — you have 1 hour to evacuate Langley, we will send a single conventional missile through your front door.
- Parfois on March 07, 2022 · at 10:15 pm EST/EDT
  
  @ Paul Damascene
  
  “… the crew of the HMS Queen Elizabeth II, the UK aircraft carrier, newly returned to Portsmouth, has X hours to abandon ship, as a Khinzal, without a warhead will be punched through the carrier deck.”
  
  That is the line of thinking that guided my contributions to this discussion in 2014: a show of force to stop the “Western gaggle” to spew out its vomit on everything Russian and to confront the fact that Russia’s concern was not bluff. I was then disappointed that Mr Putin’s kid glove approach was, as expected, taken by the Hegemon as proof of weakness, laughed at and derided as a meek bleating by the “gas station”. The consequence was that the Hegemon was emboldened by that response and ratcheted its provocations while entrenched itself at the Russian borders. As stated elsewhere, the grounds for my conviction of Mr Putin’s “error” was the fact that NATO was incapable of responding to a demonstration of resolve and “seriousness” and show the world that it was a tin god with feet of clay.
  
  The crucial difference now is that the Russian resolve has been stiffened by the recent additions to her arsenals, namely the “doom’s day” weapons which give Russia the upper hand in the confrontation. Much is at stake now because Russia’s stance is evidence that they are prepared for the ultimate showdown with the confidence of prevailing.
  
  I suppose we are facing now a critical period in modern history and the unraveling of the short-lived neo-conservative “PNAC” (Project for a New American Century).
  
  I don’t think that there will be an all-out nuclear war though but, considering the evident change in Russia’s attitude to a more forceful policy, I think it will make a demonstration for the whole world to see that NATO is a toothless tiger and it’s likely to find its “use by date” soon.
Musburger on March 07, 2022 · at 4:36 pm EST/EDT

“So, please tell me I am wrong and that the West does still have enough brains to step back from this abyss?

Does it?”

That’s the 64 million dollar question isn’t it? There definitely will be a faction that won’t back down and press for retaliation that would lead to a direct NATO/Russia war. And there will be a faction that realizes that would be suicidal. Which faction prevails?

There are people who have all their eggs in the basket of their ideology. That ideology might be nazism, religion, wealth, or whatever. And they are people willing to go down with the ship and bring everyone else with them if they are losing. I don’t know if that’s what we will see, but I think it is a possibility.
- stray on March 07, 2022 · at 11:57 pm EST/EDT
  
  Not with Stoltenberg in charge of NATO, he is know as an egotist idiot by anyone that has worked with him..
Andrea Catalano on March 07, 2022 · at 4:37 pm EST/EDT

In my opinion there are only 2 possibilities at this point:

1) The collapse of NATO and the EU.
2) WW3 (either nuclear or conventional or both).
- rr on March 07, 2022 · at 5:01 pm EST/EDT
  
  I vote for number 1.
  - Rafael on March 07, 2022 · at 8:20 pm EST/EDT
    
    I vote for number one too, but Andrea Catalano’s two possibilities are not mutually exclusive.
    - Saeed on March 08, 2022 · at 12:37 am EST/EDT
      
      I think the Zionists, neocons, international Zionist banksters, MIC, Big Oil, secret societies, etc. are losing control of their NWO plots, and therefore, desperate to bring things/realign plot to their original plans…even if it means blowing up the world into a nuclear debris.
      
      If it happens it will trigger massive death and suffering for human population on Earth that will lead to prophetic/biblical times.
      
      The Majestic Koran, Chapter 30: The Romans; Verse 41:
      
      “Corruption has spread in the land and the sea as a result of what their hands have done, so that Allah may cause to taste the consequences of some of their deeds, such that they may return to the Right Path.”
      
      Nothing happens in the Universe without the permission of Allah Mighty and Majestic. We as humanity have to go through this purification in order to return to Godly way of life filled with Reverence for God Almighty,vand compassion for HIS creations.
      
      Good news is that after these endtime trials and tribulations we get the gift to be with a Prophet of God Almighty (Prophet Jesus, peace and blessings of God Almighty be upon him and his Blessed Mother, Mary).
- Kerwas on March 07, 2022 · at 5:23 pm EST/EDT
  
  buddy i have bad news for you…we are already in WW3. Ukraine is only the first time Russia prevent things by react “hot” first before NATO can do anything serious.
  - Englishman on March 07, 2022 · at 6:20 pm EST/EDT
    
    I said to a friend many years ago that the Americans are the biggest threat to peace in the World,and WW3 had already started with the attack of the FRY,he laughed,don’t think he is now.
  - WV on March 07, 2022 · at 9:22 pm EST/EDT
    
    We have been in WW3 since at least 1945, but probably a bit earlier…ever since the Allies first realized they would win WW2.
    
    War is all the US does, and it’s all the SAME war…the war against the human race, nature, the future, and God.
    - Sarmat on March 08, 2022 · at 2:02 am EST/EDT
      
      WW3 is only a continuation of WW2 but also a continuation of the Eastern question. Same forces : croatian ustashis, banderists, muslim collaborators fighting to push Russia and Serbia in a corner
- Andrey N. Moskva on March 07, 2022 · at 7:49 pm EST/EDT
  
  The collapse of its euronato, the eu does not exist – this is nato ! )))
- MikeBa on March 07, 2022 · at 11:07 pm EST/EDT
  
  Ww3 will always be nuclear
  Ww4 will be less dangerous 😁
- Theodora on March 08, 2022 · at 6:28 pm EST/EDT
  
  Nuclear war is so last century. With today’s geoengineering more efficient, precise and possibly cheaper methods are available. Direct energy weapon, bioweapons etc make it possible to wipe out specific demographics and zip codes. Kill anything living and the infrastructure is unharmed. Much better than a radioactive ruin.
Frederick Herschel on March 07, 2022 · at 4:37 pm EST/EDT

No. The “West” would have to admit to being depraved and unhinged. Just psychologically that is probably impossible for the depraved and unhinged individual, particularly because, in this case, they are at no risk whatsoever personally. Recall that Victoria Nuland will not even miss a single pilates class if there is a nuclear war confined to Europe.

Nuclear war might war spread to the United States. If it does many, many other species on earth will praise God that humanity is gone. Some will go with it, but the remaining species will breathe a sigh of relief.

Humanity is a pestilence. All humanity? Yes, simply because the way humanity is set up, depraved and unhinged individuals rise to the “top” and control the rest. The United States may be an accident of geography, but nevertheless res ipsa loquitor.
- Italian on March 07, 2022 · at 4:51 pm EST/EDT
  
  If you think humanity is a pestilence, just get a rope and find yourself a tree.
  - XpMonster on March 07, 2022 · at 6:15 pm EST/EDT
    
    If you take a look at humanity and affect it has on the planet, you will find its little different to a cancer.
    I don’t share this misanthropy, but I understand where this coming from.
    
    To contradict this, humanity is the only species on Earth that despite contributing daily to its own destruction, is capable of understanding the beauty of this world. And what’s the point of all this if there’s no one left to appreciate it?
    - Ivor Ulfsson on March 07, 2022 · at 10:31 pm EST/EDT
      
      If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?
- Berndt Braincell on March 07, 2022 · at 10:57 pm EST/EDT
  
  Mind is a disease of Semen
  
  Reverend A.C. Verey
Nightvision on March 07, 2022 · at 4:38 pm EST/EDT

It is being underreported in the West how much economic damage is already being done to WESTERN Countries.

Here are a few highlights:

Michelin halts production at several large factories due to lack of supplies. The part multiple articles fail to mention or mention very softly in the fine print is this is related to specifically materials imported from Russia that are no longer arriving.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-04/card/michelin-to-halt-production-at-some-european-factories-as-war-hits-supply-chain-18BWxovP6KYXgcS22v6t

“Carmakers shut factories and freeze sales as invasion fallout spreads
OEMs including Toyota, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Aston Martin hit by war in Ukraine.”

“Porsche and BMW became the latest carmakers to shut European plants because of a lack of parts from Ukraine, while Toyota, Mercedes-Benz, and Hyundai, which is one of the largest brands in Russia, said they would cease manufacturing in the country. Ford, Renault, and BMW have already closed Russian plants.”

So many automotive manufacturers are shuttering plants due to parts they normally receive from Ukraine no longer coming.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2022/03/carmakers-shut-factories-and-freeze-sales-as-invasion-fallout-spreads/

Nickel and many other rare metals (palladium etc) are skyrocketing through the roof.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/nickel-spikes-82-russia-supply-fears-spark-historic-short-squeeze

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/carnage-everywhere-market-begins-break

https://www.ibtimes.com/palladium-propelled-record-highs-russia-supply-concerns-3426464

Gas prices in Europe near all time highs of $3600

https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/gas-prices-in-europe-hit-new-all-time-high-reaching-over-3-600-122030700783_1.html

While oil is now approaching $140 per barrel.

The White House is now making desperate round trips to Venezuela, Iran, and Saudi Arabia to beg for oil help https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/white-house-mulls-biden-visit-saudi-arabia-plea-more-oil

Meanwhile wheat prices are soaring from 50-80%, reports say https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/wheat-prices-soar-trigger-trading-190626322.html

https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1500898198583447563

European banks nose-diving: https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1500935772534415361

White House admits U.S. is screwed: “Need to prepare for long difficult road ahead….” https://twitter.com/Investingcom/status/1500930525405630471
- Kerwas on March 07, 2022 · at 5:27 pm EST/EDT
  
  What goes around, comes around.
  I already think of how to weather this storm on a individual level. i really considering to migrate to russia or any “friendly” state of the russophere for the time being for 15Years or something until this whole bullshit is dying down.
- The Kansan on March 07, 2022 · at 6:00 pm EST/EDT
  
  @Nightvision,
  
  Thanks for all this data. It is being kept under wraps in the US corporate media. All you hear is Putin evil, Putin=Hitler, Russians are indiscriminate killers, Russians are committing atrocities, why doesn’t NATO do something?
  
  Americans are about to wake up and realize that they are paying for something they did not sign up for. As the recession takes hold and folks lose their jobs, lose their homes, and find they are unable to pay for necessities they once took for granted, there will a great outcry. Expect the fencing around the Capitol to become permanent. Isn’t democracy great?
  - Gryunt Scarhide on March 07, 2022 · at 7:03 pm EST/EDT
    
    “Americans are about to wake up and realize that they are paying for something they did not sign up for. ”
    
    No they won’t. I’ve been hearing this “Americans certainly won’t stand for this anymore!” twaddle for nigh on 40 years now. Sure, they’ll continue to whine like mules, but if the covid scam taught us anything, it’s that the majority of Americans (and all humans) can be easily led to hate the wrong targets and attack the wrong ideas, especially if it’s the easy and convenient option. Consider yourselves warned.
    - cylindrical crown on March 07, 2022 · at 9:06 pm EST/EDT
      
      The 2 minutes of hate dictated by western governments and media has shifted from the unvaccinated to Putin/Russia. Where will it go after that? Maybe the Ukrainians. Maybe just ordinary people who tell the truth. Who knows?
      - eagle eye on March 08, 2022 · at 6:08 am EST/EDT
        
        Nicely put. Orwell understood the nature of the bastards brilliantly
    - Don B on March 07, 2022 · at 9:43 pm EST/EDT
      
      You’re spot on, Covid laid bare the complete failure of the American education (indoctrination) system. It would take a few generations to turn that around.
    - The Kansan on March 07, 2022 · at 9:44 pm EST/EDT
      
      @Gryunt Scarhide – totally disagree. Most Americans had no idea that gas might rise to $8 a gallon. They were angry when it reach $3.50. As the cost of energy rises it will affect everything Americans buy – food of course, most importantly. Most Americans are living paycheck to paycheck as it is. Get your head out of the USA lifestyle paraded by Hollywood. It’s all make believe. And remember Jan 6 and the BLM movement of last year. The home front is about to implode.
    - Doug Hillman on March 08, 2022 · at 12:10 am EST/EDT
      
      Gryunt, as we write, a freedom convoy of truckers is encircling the Washington District of Corruption to protest covid mandates (remember that bioweapon deployed against China and the rest of us?). The convoy may be dealt with in Trudy’s Canuckistani way, but I don’t believe that spirit of resistance to tyranny can be stamped out. Russia may now be providing spiritual space for that.
    - Ladi Butko on March 08, 2022 · at 10:53 am EST/EDT
      
      Yes, true, however, more than ever, the number of people who have awoken or are pre-woke is arguably high enough that their resistance alone could be a monkey wrench. If only 15% of a population is needed to affect change, then we must be close, or have already reached that point. About 20% did it with regard to u-turning the covid narrative. That said, the majority is stone dumb and that can keep things going for a long time. Additionally, the psychopaths will undoubtedly escalate with more shrill, scary and bloody antics to cause the unwashed masses to fall into line a la mass psychosis formation. 75% of the population has an IQ of 110 or below. 75%!!! Do you know what that means? To the chagrin of the wakened, these lemmings don’t recognize a problem when it stares them in the face, are completely enveloped by normalcy bias, support the prevailed Overton Window, and couldn’t think their way out of a box to save their life. And if it goes nuclear, all bets are off … even if just theatre nukes. Already the hysteria is off the charts. Rockefeller lockstep. Agenda 2030, WEF, and young global leaders, of which Putin is one. Smoke and mirrors … all to move forward the depopulatiin agenda. Game that one to its logical end.
  - frankly on March 07, 2022 · at 10:20 pm EST/EDT
    
    Eisenhower warned us decades ago. The worst of it with all the job losses brings even more poor men running off to fight yet another world war.
    
    It seems those who profit the most by these shenanigans don’t really care who wins or loses, it’s all about replacing equipment. Those who profit the most were glad to see all that gear go to the Taliban where the locals can only groan at their misfortune. Here we go again!
    
    But there you have it, to many the collateral murder video was all revealing, but still Julian rots in a cell and those who keep him there grin every time another vehicle gets blown to smithereens. There only regret is when the passengers die, as now they won’t profit from a shortened life dependent on pricey pharmaceuticals.
    
    NATO cannot win or accept defeat. This is where prayer comes in as you are undoubtedly correct.
    - John Kennard on March 08, 2022 · at 6:04 am EST/EDT
      
      “Those who profit the most by these shenanigans don’t really care who wins or loses”:
      
      The Fossil-Fuel Mob all the way.
      
      Raking in windfall-profits (after supplying the wind) already, all around the world.
      
      And if they don’t secure the fuels of Ukraine and Russia this time, they can sit on their profits and try again later.
      
      Win–win–win.
      
      I do wish people would stop calling the United States a “democracy”; it is a plutocracy, and has been from the first, with “pay-for-play” justice and political systems:
      
      Guess who those have never favored.
      
      And the actions of the US government, corrupt, cruel, and perverted, exactly mirrors the character of America’s rulers.
- WTFUD on March 07, 2022 · at 6:10 pm EST/EDT
  
  Your last twatter pic of Biden looking out of the WH window, the caption is, ‘Where am I?’
  
  Actually those Straussian duals like Blinken have succeeded in capturing the Foreign Policy Office and are dictating matters. I reckon it’s Israel who now doing the bidding.
Dominik on March 07, 2022 · at 4:38 pm EST/EDT

The biggest attack from Nato was on the Russian currency. 150Rubels per Euro is a bargain, but I cannot buy any Rubels anymore. I imagine that a Russian retaliation may come in the currency wars. Maybe Russia will end the dollar dominance by adopting Gold as the currency for their international trade.
- Cosimo on March 07, 2022 · at 8:56 pm EST/EDT
  
  I think Russian ciiizens can use gold as money, unless there is a ban on private parties shipping gold out of Russia. This was not possible until March 2, when Russia ended the 20% tax on gold purchases. I don’t suppose there is any law against making gold pieces of an accurate weight. People also need a way to get the gold to their overseas purchasers, so new delivery companies will take up the space formerly occupied by FedEx, DHL, etc. . I suppose people and companies will step up to the challenge and profit. How long before the first Youtube or Bitchute video on melting god and making uh, well they look a lot like coins, ya know ?
The chairmaker on March 07, 2022 · at 4:39 pm EST/EDT

Does anyone know why the Czech Republic (which is an EU member state) is specifically mentioned outside the EU ?

I notice several European countries west of Russia which are not on the list

Serbia I understand why,
but what about

Croatia ?
Bosnia ?
Moldova ?

My understanding is they voted to condemn Russia at the U.N.
- SoheilS on March 07, 2022 · at 5:11 pm EST/EDT
  
  The anti-Russian law passed in Czech Republic was pretty extreme. Perhaps the special mention is due to that…
- Perfect stranger on March 07, 2022 · at 5:13 pm EST/EDT
  
  Croatia is EU member
- Tavarich on March 07, 2022 · at 5:21 pm EST/EDT
  
  Croatia is in the EU… Moldova and Bosnia not. But who cars??
  - Берзои on March 07, 2022 · at 5:44 pm EST/EDT
    
    Bosnia along with Serbia did not impose sanctions to Russia. Serbia on its own will, while in Bosnia, Serbia prevented this decisions – Croats and Muslims would otherwise impose sanctions. I believe the only 2 status in Europe.
    Do not know about Moldova.
    - The chairmaker on March 07, 2022 · at 6:21 pm EST/EDT
      
      Well thanks for your insight.
      Didn’t know that Serbia had such sway over Bosnia
      
      And OFC Croatia is in the EU, the last one to enter the club, forgot about it. I stand corrected.
      
      BTW I don’t agree with the “who cares”. Russia specifically took the time to include North Macedonia and Montenegro, and geopolitical heavyweights like Monaco, Andorra, Liechtenstein and San Marino (combined population less than 200.000) so why exclude Bosnia and Moldova.
      
      I first thought that, it was because Bosnia is one of only 2 majority muslim countries in Europe west of Russia, and the muslim world is mostly supportive of Russia (my wife who is a teacher in a EU country highschool tells me that all her pupils (15-18 yrs old) of muslim or african descent support Russia and president Putin, despite – or maybe partly because of – the propaganda onslaught. They know next to nothing to geopolitics, they don’t know how to place the Ukraine on a map, but they instinctively know Russia is the good guy here. It’s heart-warming.)
      
      As for Moldova, it has a strategic importance in this conflict. It borders the Ukraine, and then, there is the whole transnistrian situation.
      But even if their current president is nominally “pro-european”, maybe they took the georgian way and refused to be dragged into conflict with their vastly stronger (future) neighbour.
      Maybe they’re also grateful for all the russian help during the Covid-19 pandemic.
      
      I don’t know, but I’d like to have some educated insights on the subject ;)
      - Bojan on March 07, 2022 · at 7:11 pm EST/EDT
        
        Bosnia is not under “control” of Serbia, but there is a political entity (a state-like) of Serbs in Bosnia, which constitutes cca 49% of BH territory and some 30-33% of its inhabitants. Serbs living there have a little bit more patriotic government than Serbia (yet still corrupt) and they all are fully aware of importance and positive role of Russia. Government in Serbia is constituted mostly of western puppets and they are now trying to please their masters but trying not to induce riots if they level too much on the western side. In Bosnia important decisions require consens of all ethnicities (Serbs representatives included) and this is the reason why so far Bosnia did not introduce special measures against Russia. The truth is that this mechanism is not functioning well due to internal political problems and some representatives of Bosnian government do not follow the rule of law and the constitution (by voting against Russia i.e. against the will of Serbian representatives).
        
        Some Guy on March 08, 2022 · at 4:22 am EST/EDT
        
        Vucic is not a Western puppet otherwise he’d have already announced sanctions against Russia. And he wouldn’t have allowed China to invest so heavily in Serbia.
        It’s just dumb to demand that he must behave ultra confrontational like North Korea, we are not in the position because they would crush us. Political neutrality buys us time until some day the balance of power hopefully has changed.
        But I fear it wont because I see tons of articles now appearing in the German speaking press declaring that Serbia is an enemy and that we had faked being friendly towards the EU.
        You want to sit in a bomb shelter again and eat out of trash cans while Mafia controls the streets? No one will help us if they start suffocating us again, we have no border towards a friendly nation that would help us out with trade for essential products.
        They are all looking towards taking a part of our territory and ethnically cleansing the people there. Western press will look away.
        Even the DNR & LNR have been in a better position than we are, at least they are bordering on Russia which blocked the West from ethnically cleansing everyone.
    - RMM on March 07, 2022 · at 6:57 pm EST/EDT
      
      Moldova will remain neutral – https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/74843/
- zarathustra on March 07, 2022 · at 6:14 pm EST/EDT
  
  Czech gowerment is now very much in hand of americans thereford what Czech gowerment doing is not Czech gowerment but pupets of america there is no real Czech gowerment same like Slovaks.
  Iam Czech 35 years in Canada I must say iam a shame of many Czech people
  to turn agains their liberators from red army.
  I think it is because what happened to CZechoslovakia in 1968 . People still dont understand why SSSR did it ,they dont make diference from then and now.
  But many old folks I think majority like russian people not so much for new generation, they did good job on them they brainwash them .
  I wish russian nation all the best they are my friends in my soul non my enemies.
  - Romanian Observer on March 07, 2022 · at 6:41 pm EST/EDT
    
    My 2 cents…. The Czechs only provided guns and ammo worth of 8 mil euros…. that is less than 1000 machine guns. Peanuts.
    So why the harsh law against Russia? To provide Russia an excuse to retaliate symmetrically against western spies that were sent in as reporters. All news media from West extracted their reporters from Russia. Thank you Czech Republic.
  - Rublev on March 08, 2022 · at 7:31 am EST/EDT
    
    41 years old living at a periphery of that little country. Covid demolished all the remaining faith in people and humanity I had. Now with Russophobia I am avoiding discussions on that topic. My very good friends thinking how independent & critical thought processes they possess start talking like parrots. On top a law has been recently passed threatening with up to 3 years in jail for anyone considered supporting Russia, Putin and his actions in Ukraine. Surreal..
    1968 probably plays some role in the mass psychosis. Maybe it’s a psychological mechanism of insignificant self perceived “victim” that built its identity on being little David against Goliath. Dunno..
    
    At se Ti dari v Kanade!
- Traveller on March 07, 2022 · at 6:40 pm EST/EDT
  
  Not sure why Czech Republic is specifically mentioned, maybe they did something that warrants special care by Russia…)
  Regarding Croatia, it is member of EU and NATO, so it is covered by that.
  Bosnia is basically divided into muslim and serbian half (Republic Srpska), and since Serbs are friends with Russia, whole of Bosnia is given green light, same as Serbia.
  They have voted in UN under duress, but they are friends with Russia, so there you go.
  Moldova is partially under Russian military control (Transnistria region), so that solves that.
- Goran on March 07, 2022 · at 6:45 pm EST/EDT
  
  Bosnia gets a pass because because the Republic of Serbia (RS) is within its confines, not the neighboring country called “Serbia”. The RS is ready to go its own way. Therefore Bosnia is a useful asset to Russian for causing more vibrations deep inside Europe. Russian is firmly holding on to the pain lever.
- Z on March 07, 2022 · at 10:45 pm EST/EDT
  
  Sanctions measures, not the UN vote is what matters.
- R on March 08, 2022 · at 3:27 am EST/EDT
  
  Serbia provides mines to Ukraine right now. Recently captured by DNR ( E. Basurin statement) and claimed to be Bulgarian. But you can clearly see the markings – KV 60 mm M73, which is produced by Serbia. Bulgaria does not produce mines.
  Serbia: Listen to what I am saying, do not look at what I am doing.
Friend on March 07, 2022 · at 4:39 pm EST/EDT

I don’t think you are wrong Andrei. I just can’t see anyone in the west taking a lead and steering this madness back to negotiation table. No one to talk to on the west, just delusional hotheads. Especially in the light of bioweapons labs revelations, we are one the one-way road to escalation between empire of lies and Russia.
Perhaps, it is time for Russia to remind Poland about consequences if they continue pumping weapons and mercs to banderistan? Bottom line is, who’s gonna draw first?
- Andrey N. on March 07, 2022 · at 7:56 pm EST/EDT
  
  Are you sure that poland / euronato is transporting weapons?
  Are you sure that to okraine, and not to the East, Central Asia, …? )))
Flying Dutchman on March 07, 2022 · at 4:40 pm EST/EDT

I never thought there was any but the most minuscule chance the US would let the Ukraine go without forcing some form of NATO-Russian shooting (but without itself having to participate directly – looks like Poland will have to fall on its sword). And that was before the Russians announced further goals of rolling back NATO’s extant weapons placement.

Meanwhile I have zero confidence in ANY Ukrainians whatsoever – the formerly-of-Kiev regime, the Ukronazis, the Ukroarmy, etc. – the Russians will find no viable partner. Putin will have to follow through on his threat to demolish Ukrainian statehood as such. Hopefully he can find some formula which doesn’t require annexing the western cesspool.
- Edward on March 07, 2022 · at 5:38 pm EST/EDT
  
  US will have Poles go into ukraine, but ‘outside of NATO scope’ so as not to risk a nuclear war. This won’t work, though.
Max Steel on March 07, 2022 · at 4:40 pm EST/EDT

Ukraine is too big of a prize for the USA to let go now. I just don’t see that happening. The USA will pull out all stops, including NATO intervention. Losing Ukraine to the Russians will be a major blow. They have spent 30 years and countless billions on prying away Ukraine. Can they just walk away? No. Sadly, this is going to get much, much uglier for everyone.
- Phil S. on March 07, 2022 · at 5:01 pm EST/EDT
  
  American hubris being what it is, I feel you are correct.
  
  Add in the fact that America has never seen a “real” war (although they do go on about their petty little internal squabble – their “Civil War”!), and for the majority “war” happens somewhere else, their forces are ALWAYS victorious, and it provides excellent entertainment to watch on their (overseas-made) large screen tv.
  
  Since US / NATO HAS to respond (or lose what little credibility remains), will the Russian counter-response be symmetric (“tit for tat” response) or asymmetric (which seems to be Russia’s forte)?
  
  We may yet see.
  - Old Mole on March 07, 2022 · at 8:58 pm EST/EDT
    
    The U.S. Civil War was hardly a “petty little squabble.” Historians have recently recalculated the death totals and come up with a figure over 700,000. But that was a long time ago now, and I take the general point that the U.S. during the 20th century never suffered any significant direct consequences, aside from the Japanese attacks on Pearl Harbor and a couple of island in the Aleutians, of a modern Total War.
    - J-P DeCouvreur on March 08, 2022 · at 7:44 pm EST/EDT
      
      Sorry but I find myself in need of interjection here. Hawaii did not gain state hood until 1959 (18 years after the “day of infamy”, and 60 years after the overthrow of the legitimate representatives of the Hawaiian people, meaning that the Japanese did not attack sovereign US territory. Besides that, Hawaiian monarchiste and nationalist are still of the view (and supported by some of those who dare speak out) that the US is to this day still an occupying force.
  - FiveGunsWest on March 08, 2022 · at 12:05 am EST/EDT
    
    The present US Federal Goobermint may not be here today had not Russia helped blockade the South during the Northern War.
    
    https://www.rbth.com/politics_and_society/2017/08/16/what-role-did-russia-play-in-the-us-civil-war_823252
    
    https://news.usni.org/2020/02/12/graveyard-ceremony-commemorates-when-u-s-russia-were-the-closest-of-allies
    
    https://www.wearethemighty.com/popular/time-russia-guaranteed-civil-war-union-clay/
- 1Beak1 on March 07, 2022 · at 6:08 pm EST/EDT
  
  Those Billions are Toilet paper. And, by the time this is over that Toilet Paper can only be cashed in the Wash Room. Soon, that paper will no longer negotiable as there will little on no Value.
  Plus, the US does not have an Answer to Russia’s Hyoersonic Missiles. Plus, see articles written by:
  
  1. H I Sutton titled, “Russia’s Newest Submarine, Khabrovsk, Could Redefine Underwater Warfare” and,
  
  2. Inder Singh Bisht titled, “Russia to Deploy Submarine Armed With Nuclear Drone in Pacific”. Who knows if they are also now in the Atlantic.
  How much uglier as the American ruling Oligarchs don’t want to be vaporized as Putin shows off he metal. He will now be respected after the slap in the faces of those deserving fools.
corvo on March 07, 2022 · at 4:40 pm EST/EDT

There is one error on Russia’s list of unfriendly countries:

Taiwan isn’t a country.

(Sorry, couldn’t resist!)
- Sherman Cheung on March 07, 2022 · at 5:52 pm EST/EDT
  
  Much Like Ukraine is a Province of Russia, Taiwan is but Province of China.
- Arfur Mo on March 07, 2022 · at 5:56 pm EST/EDT
  
  But it is a US supplicant. The US is trying to get Taiwan to construct a chip fab plant in the US, seemingly unaware that the US has a scorched earth plan for Taiwan should it ever fall out of the US grip. That could happen surprizingly quickly after the US plant comes online – ooops, the Taiwan chip fab plant goes up in flames.
Nightvision on March 07, 2022 · at 4:40 pm EST/EDT

An insightful thread about hidden Ukrainian military losses as taken from info buried at the bottom of a new NYTimes article:

“1) We hear a lot about Russia’s tactical/strategic problems, advances/offensives, but very little about the Ukrainian military and its problems. The coverage has been largely one sided. This @nytimes
article on the UKR 59th Brigade gives some insights.
2) The article notes that UKR forces are fighting valiantly, they no doubt are and have put up stiff resistance. But the 59th Brigade, based near Crimea, has also taken significant loses. You have to read to the bottom of the article to see it.
3) “The Russian force that poured out of Crimea was five times the size of his Ukrainian unit and quickly overwhelmed it. His brigade had no air support and few functional antiaircraft systems, because most had been sent to Kyiv to defend the capital.”
5) “The brigade’s commander … had lost touch with military leadership and was forced to make decisions on the fly.”
6) “Encircled [Kherson] and suffering heavy losses from strikes by Russian fighter jets, Col. Vinogradov ordered his remaining tank and artillery units to punch a hole through a unit of Russian airborne assault troops that had positioned itself at the Ukrainian brigade’s rear.”
7) “The fighter jets of the enemy attacked our tanks, several tanks were hit and burned, and the rest remained and did not flee,” Col. Stetsenko said. “ … they gave up their lives to break through the bridge to dig in on the other bank.”
8) The @nytimes
report notes that this brigade was not prepared for the war and only 1/2 of its soldiers mustered on the day of the invasion.
9) War is chaotic. Like, the Russians, the Ukrainian military is having planning, communications, and command and control issues, manpower and equipment losses, logistical problems, and such. We just aren’t hearing about this because the coverage of this war is lopsided.
Trauma2000 on March 07, 2022 · at 4:41 pm EST/EDT

Quote: “The Russians have now officially declared all the following countries as “hostile”:

… and Australia is third on the list.

I live in Australia.

You can not possibly understand how disappointing this is for my family and I right now… and no, I’m no trolling.

So much for ten or twelve years of plans. I’m pretty disjointed right now. Need a serious change of Government in Australia, like a ‘None of the Above’ kind of change.

Sh*t… I’m really upset.
- john1 on March 07, 2022 · at 5:53 pm EST/EDT
  
  In Canada we have the largest population of Ukrainians outside of Europe, and our deputy Prime MInister/FinanceMinister/Justin’s boss is an extreme Ukrainian nationalist.
  Russia cannot be feeling kind thoughts about Canada.
  - exiled off mainstreet on March 07, 2022 · at 7:23 pm EST/EDT
    
    Chrystia, the Ukronazi finance minister, has drawn a nuclear target on Canada.
- Don B on March 07, 2022 · at 9:52 pm EST/EDT
  
  This comes on the heels of the latter part of last year where the Australian government further pissed off China with the AUKUS BS. The level of stupidity to go and piss off both China & Russia is astounding.
- Suzy McHale on March 07, 2022 · at 10:29 pm EST/EDT
  
  I am also Australian, and am utterly despairing and furious at how aggressive our government is becoming towards Russia. They do not speak for me. Relations between our countries will be fractured for many years. I don’t think there are any other political parties opposing this measure (any candidates considering this would likely not dare to, given the prevailing Russophobic mood here). I think that we do have a sizeable Ukrainian diaspora (Victoria’s Liberal opposition leader, Matthew Guy, is of Ukrainian heritage, for example), so perhaps there is a lot of pressure from many within that community.
- grr on March 08, 2022 · at 12:51 am EST/EDT
  
  On the bright side Pine Gap is a juicy target, and so are other ZioUS installations and bases.
  Russia may clean house down under.
corvo on March 07, 2022 · at 4:42 pm EST/EDT

On a more serious note, Mr. Saker, to answer your concluding question:

One can only pray.

This is an especially tough time for nonbelievers!
- Cas on March 07, 2022 · at 7:34 pm EST/EDT
  
  Why, if I may ask? Believers seem to think they know what so-called ‘nonbelievers’ think, and what exactly is the definition of a nonbeliever according to you? This time is especially not tough to me, I embrace the changes the Russian Federation are causing, and if the dark side will meddle and cause hell to break loose I’ll be glad to give the bears a helping hand until my lights go out.
Deplorable Commissar on March 07, 2022 · at 4:43 pm EST/EDT

” The Russians have now officially declared all the following countries as “hostile”: ”

However, Poland is not on the list. I wonder why ?
- corvo on March 07, 2022 · at 4:48 pm EST/EDT
  
  Poland is on the list as an EU member state.
- SoheilS on March 07, 2022 · at 5:06 pm EST/EDT
  
  “All EU members” is 1st on the list!
- Prof. Spudd on March 07, 2022 · at 10:03 pm EST/EDT
  
  I wonder why Turkey, which is in NATO and was fighting the Syrian government, isn’t on the list.
  - Steve on March 08, 2022 · at 6:55 am EST/EDT
    
    No sanctions against Russia. The Sultan is being rather cautious, There are almost certainly some Turkish special forces or Islamist lunatics fighting the Russians, though. A Turkish flag and explosives were photographed as having been captured in Donbass.
Quadronos on March 07, 2022 · at 4:44 pm EST/EDT

I’d say the odds are a good 50/50 at present. I can only imagine the intense debate behind closed doors within NATO with one camp raging about something “needing to be done” opposed to a more realist group urging no further escalation.

If the Russians destroy a convoy entering Ukraine from Poland with war materiel, mercenaries etc I think NATO will blink or finally fracture as some members will refuse to be drawn into a military confrontation (Hungary, Turkey, Greece, Italy?).

Western Europe is weak and its public has no stomach for a fight that isn’t crossing their borders and threatening them directly.

As for Russia, I think it’s plain to see that the gloves are finally off and any pretense of maintaining a modicum of respect for its Western “partners” is a thing of the past
Taffy on March 07, 2022 · at 4:46 pm EST/EDT

Re “I can easily imagine, say, a Polish column with weapons and mercenaries crossing into the Ukraine and being wiped out by Russian missiles. I ask you this: what will NATO do next?”

To me the most dangerous factor is the giddy recruitment of “volunteers”—both hardened professional from who knows where, and kids who perhaps have zero military experience aside from what they get in Poland—and setting this crew in motion aiming to cross the border into Ukraine. Surely they would be met with a frontal onslaught by the Russian military if they set foot or tire in Ukraine. Or would they be ferried in by helicopters? Or transport planes? But to where? Either way, the Russian army would obliterate them.

Is there is some way to convince the West to abandon this very dangerous idea? Banshees like Liz Truss and Hillary Clinton, who have been encouraging this, should be called out and held 100% percent responsible for whatever happens both to this unit as a whole and individually to each such volunteer. These ladies should be challenged to get out in front of such a column themselves. They should be lampooned, ridiculed, and labeled Anglo-Saxon jihadists and Taliban. Cartoons showing them and their folly should be beamed worldwide so that they become laughingstocks. Furthermore perhaps they should be treated as common criminals with a price on their heads. After all, American politicians have called for the assassination of Putin. How to shock and shake the West out of its zombie-like frenzy?
PE Bird on March 07, 2022 · at 4:47 pm EST/EDT

Wouldn’t the West have intervened by now? Unless there is significant disagreement within the West (crazies vs. not-quite as crazy), resulting in “give them planes”, “wait no planes”, etc.

It’s anyone’s guess which faction will prevail. I assume (hope) there are enough sane military leaders in the West to avoid committing suicide.

Maybe their “strategy” is actually to create the 2nd Iron Curtain (Churchill created the first) and start a world depression. Doesn’t seem rational but they certainly aren’t acting rational.
- Parfois on March 07, 2022 · at 11:26 pm EST/EDT
  
  @ PE Bird
  
  “(Churchill created the first) ”
  
  Pay attention class! Someone among you knows factual history buried by the Hegemon’s propaganda factory. The infamous “Iron Curtain” was erected by Churchill+Truman, not by the Soviets, as the preliminary psyop for setting up NATO.
Larchmonter445 on March 07, 2022 · at 4:47 pm EST/EDT

No brains.

NATO countries will get hit.

Nato hides by saying individual countries should act to help.

Like their master, the NATO clowns are trying to stay 6 degrees of separation.

The US pretends its over behind the Atlantic looking at China.

No. They are trying to damage Russia so it can’t help China when the US hits China. That’s the game plan.

If you want no more war, no more nazis, all of Ukraine has to cauterized.

Then the mercs and dead enders will be at the Polish border, behind their own defenses.

A no man’s land, a mined zone, and then peacekeepers would separate from what survives in four to six states.

I’d also lease massive farm land to China, and they could bring in PLA to secure their investment..
- Kempston on March 07, 2022 · at 5:09 pm EST/EDT
  
  “The US pretends its over behind the Atlantic”
  
  Exactly, and given that the US is the driving force behind all this ie they are quite happy to see all hell break loose in Europe, wouldn’t it be desirable for Russia to make it clear to the Americans that if conflict between Russia and a NATO country does break out in Europe that the USA will be heavily targetted.
  
  That might make them pause for thought.
  
  I actually read a statement some time ago by a Russian military person that Russia could take down the US without using nuclear weapons. I can’t recall his name.
  - Kempston on March 07, 2022 · at 5:37 pm EST/EDT
    
    “If you want no more war, no more nazis, all of Ukraine has to cauterized”
    
    Second thought – This statement has to be absolutely true.
    
    Just think how the US/NATO can whistle up thousands of fighters, mercenaries, ISIS whomsoever, and without using US troops but instead supplying transport, weapons, logistics and pallets of money engineer a real firestorrm in western Ukraine.
    Remember Libya? And Syria? And of course full western media support for these “freedom fighters” . It seems obvious and they are already preparing for it. Russia not bothering with west Ukraine/ Polish border? Big mistake imho.
    
    Without cauterizing Ukraines border with defensive weapons it is an open door to endless war.
- tom 123 on March 07, 2022 · at 6:02 pm EST/EDT
  
  @larchmonter
  ” I d lease massive fram land china,and they could bring in pla to secure their investment ”
  I respectively dis agreed ,Russia should control the fram land put it.s own people to work ,who controls the
  food can control people world wide also China and Russia parts right nown you never known how that could change in the future just by having a new leader step in ,never turst any one and any country !!!
  TOM 123
  - Larchmonter445 on March 07, 2022 · at 6:23 pm EST/EDT
    
    Well, then you move your own troops closer to terrorists.
    A large layer of PLA or Chinese paid PMCs is a stout buffer.
    China needs food. Also China will pump money into infrastructure. No cost to Russia.
    
    So, after a 25 year lease, you have built up a whole complex of statelets all tied to Russia, EAEU, CSTO and the Russian World.
    
    Meanwhile China is more and more dependent on that Russia World. That’s leverage if new leadersip in Beijing thinks less friendly than Pres. Xi.
    
    Putin’s entire economic development and energy strategy and Eurasian Integration is based on bringing close, by allowing a piece of the action in oil and gas and Arctic development. First China, then Arab oil nations, then even Japan, all jr. investment partners (which is working perfectly in this crisis.). India and Pakistan, too. And Mongolia. All clever ways.
    
    I would definitely keep the landmass of Ukraine far from the West and deeply available to Eurasian partners.
    China wanted Ukraine as a big hub for BRI. So she gets a small piece, but big agriculture, and theyn will probably reforest areas for timber.
    - Platinum Wolf on March 08, 2022 · at 2:35 pm EST/EDT
      
      China has five key strategic issues presently that it is seeking to address:
      
      1. Dependence on the US$
      2. An ageing population projected to materially decline
      3. Backward semi-conductor technology
      4. Lack of material resources
      5. Inability to secure blue water access to the above.
      
      The Sino-Russo alliance goes a long way to addressing with points 4 & 5, aids with 1 (but much more work to be done), #3 is a matter of money, brains, time and space while #4 is more difficult….
- TJT on March 07, 2022 · at 7:51 pm EST/EDT
  
  Except that China will never send her soldiers to a land that they don’t speak the language of.
  Its common sense.The Chinese send engineers and crews to construct and if under contract, maintain the infrastructure.They have done this for many decades in African countries,I have seen the results of their work run to the ground by local lack of maintenance.
  Where have the Chinese at this time deployed PLA to protect their investments?
  Djiboutu is a military base.
  I would not entertain such fantasies.
  - Larchmonter445 on March 07, 2022 · at 9:45 pm EST/EDT
    
    PLA were in Iraq, in Libya to protect China’s construction interests.
    
    They have been working with Eric Prince to build PMCs to cover what the PLA used to do.
    
    They are not shy about having troops in Africa. They have been there for many years.
Phil S. on March 07, 2022 · at 4:47 pm EST/EDT

“So, please tell me I am wrong and that the West does still have enough brains to step back from this abyss?”

No, they don’t, and the general public are perfectly happy with the continuous flow of dis-information. This is “their reality” and they certainly don’t want their cosy little world upset by inconvenient facts.

Proof? simply count the “pro-Ukraine “victims” responses” to any of the many Western Media YouTube channels – the Australian ABC network being a particularly bad example.

When Russia successfully concludes this operation (as they clearly and undoubtedly will) it’ll be interesting to see the mental gymnastics needed to explain the “real” reality of the situation in terms of their “virtual” reality!
- watcher on March 07, 2022 · at 7:12 pm EST/EDT
  
  Oddly enough Tom Switzer (Between the Lines) had a reasonably good segment which I listened to in the early hours (could not sleep).
zidar on March 07, 2022 · at 4:47 pm EST/EDT

The West has lost its marbles. However, Russia will not stop with Ukraina. Ukraina phase covers first two items on the ultimatum from December. The last one is what worries me: NATO to retreat to pre-Gorbatchov borders. That means former Warsaw pact countries are kicked out of NATO. NATO will refuse, and unless host countries chase them (NATO) off, I believe NATO facilities in those countries will be dealt with stand-off weapons, Calibers and what not. So, Russia will not cross Ukrainian western border, Putin will likely be true to his word – fulfill all items in the ultimatum from December, or else….

Now hey know hw is not bluffing.
- The Kansan on March 07, 2022 · at 6:08 pm EST/EDT
  
  @Zidar,
  
  This will not happen. What will happen is once Ukraine is secure, Russia will then ask that the USA and NATO sign treaties that guarantee that missiles will not come to Eastern Europe. Russia will also submit to the same treaty, meaning the entire region will become a neutral buffer.
  
  The interesting thing I think is that the economic bifurcation (decoupling) will be permanent. Think about the effect that will have on Western capitalist countries.
- Englishman on March 07, 2022 · at 6:25 pm EST/EDT
  
  Indeed,let Western Ukraine fester in its toxic swamp,but Russia needs to finish what needs to be done in East Ukraine,i just hope they don’t fall into the trap the Americans have planned,and that is bogged down fighting a war for decades.
Gianni on March 07, 2022 · at 4:49 pm EST/EDT

Honestly, I don’t think the leaders of the hegemon or European countries in NATO are mentally capable of understanding that Russia is not bluffing. The west thinks it has the upper hand and will keep pushing Russia as they think they can break her. At some point Russia will have to act ‘’first’’ as Putin said he learned on the streets of Leningrad.

Only a massive, full-on shock and awe preemptive strike(s) by Russia against NATO capitals and the empire of lies might put an end to the delusion coming from the west.

NATO and the hegemon have to be decisively broken.
- Gianni on March 07, 2022 · at 5:47 pm EST/EDT
  
  Here is the ‘hammer’ that Russia is ready to drop on NATO targets and that includes the East Coast of North America as described in a comment by Dr. George Oprisko to:
  
  Andrei Martyanov – World and Ukraine on March 5, 2022 (Saker blog)
  
  ‘Western Approaches & Cross Fire Capability’ 10,000 missiles
  
  Dr. George W Oprisko on March 06, 2022 · at 5:16 pm EST/EDT
  All but forgotten…..
  Russia deployed a very large naval force to the Western Approaches just before the Republics were
  recognized. As I recall, it consists of every seaworthy bottom in the North, Baltic, and Far East Fleets…
  To date, nothing has been reported about it. Since its deployment at least 2 major winter storms have gone
  through the “Exercise Area” ~ 200 nm SW of Ireland
  For more about the Western Approaches…..
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Approaches
  It ranges from Dorsey Head on the extreme west of Ireland, to Lands End on the extreme west of Britain, and south to Pointe Du Raz on the extreme west of Brittany, thence west 500 nm into the Atlantic ocean.
  It’s import is that it funnels all trans atlantic shipping into the English Channel and ports east ward.
  In this case, a fleet located 200 nm SW of Dorsey Head, is out of NATO fighter/bomber range , has a clear field of view for it’s AAS systems to interdict any hostiles, but is close enough to both Britain and France for missile strikes on either or both from the western direction. This gives Russia a cross fire capability covering Britain, France, Netherlands, Spain, Belgium, Germany, Norway, Iceland.
  Most probably, that is it’s purpose, ie: to make it impossible for NATO to escape utter destruction should it
  choose war with Russia. Because this fleet carries > 10,000 missiles…
  Andrey, should he choose to do so, is welcome to elaborate.
  BTW, I served in the USN in wartime. My rank is LT. I spent 30 years at sea….
  INDY
  
  With great foresight Russia has exquisitely prepared…
  - Original Analyst on March 07, 2022 · at 7:07 pm EST/EDT
    
    I think you have not understood this comment of George Oprisko correctly. The Russian Fleet that he mentions is the one that was assembled off the coast of Ireland, ‘for exercises’ but then was forgotten about by the media. This Fleet in its current position can project its weapons systems across Western Europe and Oprisko suggests that this was the reason for its deployment and positioning.
    
    What Russia has placed off the East Coast of the USA is a quite different set of assets. There, the submarine fleet can get in as close as needed, to the East Coast. Within a small radius, there are 70 million population, so there is potential to do significant damage to US interests if called upon to do so.
    - Gianni on March 08, 2022 · at 1:04 am EST/EDT
      
      The ‘cross fire hammer’ is for self selected targets in Europe (above list); Avangard, Poseidon, and other military means are for targets in North America.
Midge on March 07, 2022 · at 4:49 pm EST/EDT

I agree with Scott Ritter that Russia can’t leave mini-Banderistan alone. Ukraine is not Russia’s enemy, NATO is. NATO + Galicia means constant pressure from Russia’s west, putting it and the Ukrainian government soon to be established on the defensive. Russia needs to secure the border with NATO, add Ukraine to Belorussia and Kaliningrad for forward positioning to present an offensive threat to NATO, so that if does come to hot war, Russia will have secured west Ukraine before it starts, and if it doesn’t, Russia will be in the best position to ratchet up pressure on NATO’s vulnerable flank countries, which, apart from Poland, do not want to become ground zero for WWIII. It will be tough to subdue Galicia, and may necessitate driving large numbers of people west. But NATO is playing for keeps, so doesn’t Russia as well?
topol on March 07, 2022 · at 4:50 pm EST/EDT

Some news from Slovenia.
Tomorrow the price of fuel will significantly rise. Today we have long rows on petrol stations. Something like this never happened last 30 years.
Next is the propaganda reporting of our national television. Two foreign volunteers were interviewed in western Ukraine this morning. They are very brave and so on. In our country live a lot of foreigners from all former Yugoslavia. They were some volunteers on the side of Croatia, Serbia, Bosnians and Albanians. They were never interviewed or written about in positive manner. There was a big difference. This people had their relatives there, that is their country of origin. This reporting is the first time that they are promoting such things as good.
ERing46Z on March 07, 2022 · at 4:50 pm EST/EDT

Like Russia, the U.S. also has “no place left to retreat.” Having exploded 950+ nuke across the western u.s. nuke test sights after ww2, the characters driving the crazy train from d.c. have little worries about the consequences of various-sized nukes being used across Ukieland to drive out the ‘White Walkers’ and the King of the North…of which the u.s. and NATO will ultimately fail to do.
Baora on March 07, 2022 · at 4:50 pm EST/EDT

The big problem is NATO may try to capture or destroy Kaliningrad.
https://ria.ru/20220307/esminets-1777097057.html
In this case, the use of nuclear weapons becomes inevitable. I’m very afraid of this.
- Taffy on March 07, 2022 · at 5:00 pm EST/EDT
  
  Yep.
  
  I have also been wondering about Kaliningrad.
- Phil S. on March 07, 2022 · at 5:29 pm EST/EDT
  
  Well, any attack on Kaliningrad will be an attack on Russian territory, and VVP has made his position very clear in that respect with his “future conflicts will NOT be fought on Russian soil” comments.
  
  Presumably a conventional, minor attack would be faced using conventional weapons. Attempted (or successful) destruction, especially of the Naval Base, might well elicit a far more destructive response – one that US / NATO would not recover from.
- The Kansan on March 07, 2022 · at 6:12 pm EST/EDT
  
  @Baora,
  
  NATO will not go near Kaliningrad. It understands that to do so would mean nuclear war. NATO and the USA do not want nuclear war.
  
  Their goal is to bring about the collapse of the Russian nation, and they believe they have the economic muscle to make this happen. It’s not going to happen. Instead, they are bringing about their own collapse.
  - Captain Phoebus on March 07, 2022 · at 8:57 pm EST/EDT
    
    Everyone in NATO, like the Poles, are sane and rational….
    - The Kansan on March 07, 2022 · at 9:46 pm EST/EDT
      
      @Captain Phoebus,
      
      You think the Poles would act unilaterally? Especially with Russia nearing its borders and Belarus right next door? Nonsense.
Putrid Shittgenstein on March 07, 2022 · at 4:51 pm EST/EDT

It’ll be fine.

From the perspective of the Reset, the war in Ukraine was required.

That said, it needs to end soon, like this week: because if it doesn’t we slip into a new phase of the Reset which will impact system-core stability.

The powers that be need to make a huge decision, and soon.
- evilempire on March 07, 2022 · at 6:19 pm EST/EDT
  
  It is not ending until Ukraine hands over the war criminals that were killing Russia’s brothers.
  Do the ptb have the power to force the monster they created to do that?
Hans Vogel on March 07, 2022 · at 4:54 pm EST/EDT

It is hard to answer your question. First, it is obvious that since neoliberalism has been adopted as the gospel of the “West,” all pillars supporting the state, the economy and society have been steadily eroded. The process was slow at first, but it has been accelerating ever more, especially during the last decade. Andrei Martyanov repeatedly stresses that the “West” is being run by idiots and incompetents and I can only agree. Given the utter stupidity of Western rulers, their satanic evil and sadism (just think of those anti-Covid measures), a war against one or more NATO members must not be ruled out. Today there was a message on anonymousnews.org, a German alternative news outlet, about hundreds of German volunteers already operating in the Ukraine (https://www.anonymousnews.org/deutschland/ukraine-bundeswehr-soldaten-im-krieg-gegen-russland/).

The main obstacle to a war involving more nations would be a rapidly developing economic and social collapse, due to high prices for heating, cooking, gasoline, and food. Inflation will increase and widespread social misery will soon spread all over the place. This may be unforeseen, but it also seems to tie in with the plans of psychopaths such as Klaus Schwab and his gang.

However, no matter how much detail and attention goes into planning, reality is a bitch and plans hardly ever materialise the way their authors had in mind. Perhaps the Russian armed forces are alone and unique in that their planning seems to take into account precisely the unforeseen. Schwab, the EU leadership, the NATO bosses and the Biden regime definitely do not meet the standards of the Russian armed forces.
- the end on March 08, 2022 · at 7:20 am EST/EDT
  
  In Slovenia the price of gasoline just went up to 1,7 EUR per liter. When it will hit 2 EUR/l or more, people will start blowing upon the administration. We are fed up with your stupid solidarity with Nazis. If the ruling class likes Nazis so much, let their sons go to the fight first, stupid volunteers second and leave the rest of ordinary people alone. Mr. President, I call you publicly to send your son first into the grinder, we all will miss him (or not).
moderato cantabile on March 07, 2022 · at 4:55 pm EST/EDT

Bonjour, Monsieur le Saker,

Oui, votre dernière question est cruciale et je ne sais pas répondre…il faut prier pour que l’Apocalypse n’arrive pas maintenant.
De ce que je peux voir dans les deux pays européens où je vis…les gens ne sont pas forcément chauds à penser que cette nouvelle guerre serait leur priorité.
Il y en a encore beaucoup qui sont restés dans la guerre COVID, et tout ce qu’ils voient dans cette nouvelle guerre c’est l’inflation…quand ils voient les prix augmenter ils ne pensent pas aux “mauvais russes”, ils pensent à leurs gouvernements qui leurs mentent depuis…ça dépends du pays.
Depuis longtemps.
Longue vie au SAKER !
Voronsky on March 07, 2022 · at 4:55 pm EST/EDT

I think if some small force like a Polish column crosses in and gets taken out, they will be disavowed as “mercenaries” and “not NATO” by the backstabbers. After Hungary 56 and Georgia 08 it’s seriously insane that Ze ostensibly fell for their promises of support this time around. There’s no way the bureaucracy risks actually getting into a situation of real defense – which it has never had to do despite being a “defensive alliance.”

Whoever is calling the shots understands the situation as you describe it. The US Congress and social media personalities are screeching for a “NATO no-fly zone” which has not happened yet. Unlike in Vietnam where the popular story is that the media held back US operations, here the US mil is holding back from what the bloodthirsty media is calling for!

I also still think that while some airfields in Galicia have been/will continue to be taken out, zero Russian forces will move there; and that there is even potentially a pre-ordained agreement at hand to this effect. Whenever capitulation happens, the leaders and their advisers in the chocolate city will decry it as treason and “secede.” Blinky has plans in place for continued government “in exile” with or without Ze. So we shall see.
- The Kansan on March 07, 2022 · at 6:15 pm EST/EDT
  
  @Voronsky –
  
  I agree with your statements – check my post below. NATO’s goal is to bleed Russia – not go to nuclear war. It believes (falsely) that it can do this with its economic sanctions. But it is mistaken. Instead, the bleeding will be done by the households of Western citizens.
Captainchaos on March 07, 2022 · at 4:55 pm EST/EDT

If the Zionist-globalist American empire intended to use nuclear weapons againt Russia they would have done it already. Russian retaliation in kind would mean the destruction of New York City – which is effectively the headquarters of the Zionist-globalists. Millions of their co-ethnics live in New York City so its destruction would be considered an unacceptable loss.

Eastern Ukraine will be annexed to Russia and western Ukraine will become a neutralized buffer state.
sadness on March 07, 2022 · at 4:56 pm EST/EDT

I don’t want to say what I’m thinking, so let’s try for this – the US Empire won’t accept defeat of their forever policies until they’re defeated at home – best to go for that defeat to be totally economic rather than NY the WhiteHouse & Congress in rubble – The loss of world banking, the dollar trashed & their world finance all lost – the country $30 trillion in debt with nowhere to go
Prowall on March 07, 2022 · at 4:57 pm EST/EDT

No. You are right, because the outcome of this great operation will show the real defensive capability and a ‘nuclear solution’ could be an acceptable end for those are running the Alliance.
Nicucino on March 07, 2022 · at 4:57 pm EST/EDT

For what is worth, I signed a petition running in Romania for keeping the country out of this conflict.
I also hope that Austria will maintain its neutrality. The idiotic gov overhere are playing with the idea of joining NATO, exactly now during these critical times, resembling that of a child plaing with a grenade.
There is also a worrisome prophecy of fr Elpidios from Rhodes. God help us all:
https://youtu.be/6KpTg16N-ZY
MN on March 07, 2022 · at 4:59 pm EST/EDT

Hello,

NATO will not go to war, maybe it will go in with troops in Western Ukraine, but then you will know that the deal was reached behind the scenes for partition of Ukraine.

They will just talk and talk about Russian occupation like with Crimea and how there is hope because there is resistance from the people within and such bull… Celebrities, transexuals and other strange pepole will wave blue ad yellow flags and so on..

In fact as I see it, West needed this war in order to put the Reich under one banner and one boot – USA , and to blame Putin and Russia for the economic collapse which is long overdue in homoglobistan.
- rr on March 07, 2022 · at 5:10 pm EST/EDT
  
  “West needed this war in order to put the Reich under one banner and one boot – USA , and to blame Putin and Russia for the economic collapse which is long overdue”
  
  Well, that’s one face saving exit strategy that has the best chance of keeping us all alive.
  
  I feel as if NATOstan is one big gaslighting operation. As so many point out, Putin is not dealing with rational actors but deranged lunatics with no moral scruples, at least as far as the outward facing public personalities are concerned. Zelensky, Von der Leyen, Trudeau, Macron, Draghi, Biden, BoJo, Ardern….how did it come to this????? How is such a collective leadership failure even possible??
  
  Let us hope that their advisors in the background have some survival instinct.
Mamusich Milan on March 07, 2022 · at 4:59 pm EST/EDT

Andrei, You are right. We assume rational actors. However, the increasingly desperate USA is not acting rationally. Anything can happen.
Stephen T Johnson on March 07, 2022 · at 4:59 pm EST/EDT

Is it possible to end without WWIII? Yes. Is it likely? No.
That frenzy being whipped up is not only crazy talk, it’s there to make negotiation impossible.
All that we can hope is that cowardice trumps overconfidence. Rational negotiation is not in the cards.

My two cents worth, and God knows I hope I’m wrong.
- Decorum on March 08, 2022 · at 3:48 am EST/EDT
  
  Stephen, this is WWIII. The question is what weapons will be used when it escalates, and what the objectives of the beligerents will be. The answer is unpredictable – World wars do not usually end where they start. The main problem will be what happens when/if the hegemon is perceived as weak? If his only choice is to press the self destruct button, then it’s over. I prefer to believe that Russia will provide a way for the West to declare success to itself while Russia receives security guarantees. Remember, the Cuban missile crisis removed US missiles form Turkey, but try to find an American that knows this.
Jones on March 07, 2022 · at 5:00 pm EST/EDT

Andrei, pelo histórico de maldade dos Anglo-saxões observado em todos os cantos deste planeta, é certo que eles não vão desistir ate que a Rússia seja definitivamente destruída. Meu ponto de vista é que a Rússia não deveria considerar nem por 1 segundo, nenhuma proposta vinda desse povo maléfico e avançar na direção da destruição dos EUA e OTAN, se quiser sobreviver.
- zé ca roceiro on March 08, 2022 · at 5:58 pm EST/EDT
  
  Estimado irmao lusófono,
  O grande problemas dos russos, em minha modesta opiniao, foi sempre exatamente crerem que eles seriam aceitos como membros da “comunidade internacional do crime” liderada pelo famigerado estado terrorista,segundo Noam Chomsky, que sao os United Snakes of America. Parece que só agora finalmente os russos se despertaram desse esturpor e sonambolismo libertando-se das sombras das cavernas e emergindo a realidade e com esse despertar tomando assim as devidas medidas de protecao para garantir a sobrevivencia da Mae Russia que nos é tao cara, sejamos russos ou nao!
  Translation:
  Dear Lusophone Brother,
  The big problem for the Russians was, imho, that for a time they believed they were welcome and respectfully accepted as members of the “international community of crime” led by the infamous terrorist state, according to Noam Chomsky, which are the United Snakes of America. It seems that only now have the Russians finally awakened from this stupor and somnambolism, ridding themselves of any illusions they could still nourish, freeing themselves from the shadows of the caves and emerging reality and with this awakening, thus taking the necessary protective measures to guarantee the survival of Mother Russia that is so dear to us, whether we are Russians or not!
Justin on March 07, 2022 · at 5:06 pm EST/EDT

I read that Russia only committed a small percentage of its troops to Ukraine. The remaining are these to intervene in case nato gets ideas to attack.

Imo Russia is holding back its best weapons to prevent info leaking to the west. That way of the west did go to war with Russia it would face many surprises.

I think there will be a war. When you demonise a leader like the west has done its very easy to get public support for a war.

Stop all communications with the other side then how do you deescalate?

You hope there are a few level headed people in the higher echelons of the military to exercise caution but I feel they are outnumbered.
- ESG on March 07, 2022 · at 5:15 pm EST/EDT
  
  In fact, the most important lesson comes from WWII itself – Germany steamrolled over the USSR until the former’s lines were spread extremely thin, while the latter built up its industrial and military capacity so that no one could stop the juggernaut that came from the East.
  
  In other words, Russia would do well to keep the bulk of its good troops behind, just in case NATO tries something stupid or Ukraine gets reinforcements from them.
Nightvision on March 07, 2022 · at 5:06 pm EST/EDT

One thing I notice about amateur reportage of the war is that amateurs focus on tactical details, professionals focus on strategic initiative and operational movements (while, as the saying goes, true grandmasters focus on ‘logistical problems’, but that’s another story).

Armchair amateurs continue to focus on one small Russian unit that took losses or some supply convo that had its tires blown out, but fail to grasp the nature and scale of the encirclement currently taking place in the Donbas. I was the first to vocally state several days ago that I refuse to pay attention to the Donbas encirclement YET, because the vast territory still left is not even close to being covered and connected by RF forces, and so it was best at the time to focus on other fronts.

But I can definitively say now, with today’s capture of Izyum and (to me more importantly) the successes of the southern flank, with their capture of Volnovakha and attendant villages/surrounding area, we are finally coming realistically close to the beginning stages of the cauldron actually being formed.

Now keep in mind, I think it is still days if not a week++ away from actually realistically closing. There is much fighting left to be done, and we still await any “surprises” from Ukrainian side, such as any unexpected break out and/or reinforcement attempts.

Most current maps actually are not up to date with the vast amount of villages/territory the RF forces have captured west of Volnovakha / east of Zaporizhzhia. You can see this most clearly in these maps

https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1500895448390946826/photo/1

https://twitter.com/Irkutyanin1/status/1500909632738541573/photo/2

^ This first map in particular shows clearly the most up to date captures of the front that’s north of Mariupol and East of Zaporizhzhia. All that vast territory there has fallen and the Ukr forces rear and flanks will already be soon exposed to arty fire control.

One thing that must be remembered is that Russian forces in general all over the country are very spread/thinned out, and so progress is slower than if they were all concentrated on one front. But once this massive cauldron closes, things will begin to “domino” rapidly, as Saker mentioned. Because several Russian fronts will converge and become concentrated into a massive concentration of troops and firepower. Then as they take over more territory they will continually “snowball” in size until a massive front of RF forces will basically be bulldozing over everything east of the Dnieper. So in short, once that cauldron collapses, things my greatly escalate in speed as the unified RF front will be now impossible to stop. I expect at that point for everything east of Kiev to fall much more rapidly.

With that said, like I mentioned earlier, I don’t expect this cauldron to close SUPER soon. It’s still days away if not a week or more, depending how cautiously RF forces take it and depending on what the Ukr forces inside decide to do. Will a large amount of them retreat? Or will they suicidally dig in and fight to the last man (thus delaying the inevitable)?
- FkDahl on March 07, 2022 · at 7:27 pm EST/EDT
  
  The Russian front lines have stretched out a lot and they are probably quite vulnerable to well organized counter attacks. Also the invading force was small, so small that I did not think an invasion was going to happen. The Russians could of course go the US way and carpet bomb around them, but such an approach is only permitted for some countries and not for others.
  - Nightvision on March 07, 2022 · at 8:04 pm EST/EDT
    
    key word being ‘well organized.’ The Ukrainian army can’t organize anything well on an operational level because their communications have been shattered and they’re low on reserves/equipment to quickly transport large units around. That’s why the only ambushes you see happening are small ones with a small squad of troops ambushing a couple supply trucks etc, nothing larger than that. And like I said soon the “stretched” lines will actually be consolidating into huge concentrated fronts where Russian forces will be an unstoppable bulldozer
  - George Kovachev on March 08, 2022 · at 1:24 am EST/EDT
    
    Actually, at this point there’s nothing stopping the russians to conduct carpet-bombings – they don’t give a damn about the western public opinion. The russians simply choose not to do so – it seems that one of their primary tasks is to minimize civilian casualties as much as possible. After all, indiscriminate carpet-bombings with complete disregard for the civilians – that’s NATO’s modus operandi. Russians are better than this.
Martin on March 07, 2022 · at 5:06 pm EST/EDT

Yes, the people in the pentagon know all this. The obvious consequence is that NATO will avoid direct involvement. The weapon deliveries are for the American defense contractors to make money, not to do much in the fight.
- esskumar on March 08, 2022 · at 4:32 am EST/EDT
  
  Exactly! Imo, the entire weapon delivery brouhaha is about showing weapons inventory exiting the stores. Whether it reaches the intended recipient or whether it is used as intended is not at all important. The depleted inventory translates into replenishment orders with hefty kickbacks to all the politicos and their henchmen. If Russia destroy’s the weapons, no problem. Even better would be clandestine mercenaries highjacking the consignment in the no man’s land and getting a good consignment of weapons for blackmarket sale around the world. That would be right out of Ukrainian playbook, where aid dollars from US taxpayers end up in the pockets of corrupt political and military bosses.
Goran on March 07, 2022 · at 5:07 pm EST/EDT

I don’t see a nuclear exchange happening. For the primary reason that the US needs the EU nations to keep functioning and buying over priced US goods. The EU is in some sort of hypnosis. They do not have anybody capability of rational thought. So nobody exists to save them. Vague recollection from a speech by Putin or one of his ministers a few days ago. The speech described an engagement with NATO in general detail. The engagement was short lived from hypersonic missiles carrying conventional warheads to key targets within the EU. This seems like the Russian way of war. Start at a base level and turn up the pain until it really hurts. I think the EU will feel the hurt immediately. Russia does not even expecting the US to enter such a conflict, well I haven’t read any statements explicitly mentioning the US. In the end the EU gets its ass handed to it. The rest of the world pimps them out or what is left of them and we all move forward looking at Europe not as the center of advanced culture but as barbarians who faked it all this time.
- Kerwas on March 07, 2022 · at 5:47 pm EST/EDT
  
  Then my dear non-European, you have NO idea of Europe in the sligthest. The whole Continent is LITERALLY coverd ankle deep in the boold of its wars of the last 2.000 Years and the last 70 Years was in fact the most peacefull we had here EVER since the first settlers reached the land somewhat 15.000 Years ago. This age is now coming to a close and the normal status quo will be established again.
  
  That means War all over the place. UK against France? Could happen soon. Germany against whoever bugs us at the moment. Greek against Turkey? Nothing out of the ordinary.
  
  What will happens if Russia finally decided to strike?
  Well first of all they have to ramp up their missile production of mr Zirkon and Mr Khinsal to have something of 10K each.
  
  then they should ramp up their Airdefense to the max or even better the S600 out of the Door and cover ther western flank with it.
  
  Then they have to look at their recon Fotos from space and ploting a target list for those missiles.,
  
  then they have to be as accurate as possible and strike the head of state in Germany, France, UK. They have to make sure they get killed. so nuclear would be favorable.
  
  Then they have to hunker down to tank the 2nd strike from Briton and France. maybe even from USA. if their AA systems are properly setup their will be a Russian state after even the USA decided to strike. Their AA capabilitys with their S500 rn a far better then the West. A S600 would be maybe even able to Tank a majorrty of the ICBMs coming in.
  
  After all this exchange of missiles, if the russian hit the right spots. The Madness will be finally over and the global cabal stop existing, their will be a big wondering of the survivers in Europe what happens and why so less is destroyed and live will go on. The USA will be a glass desert and nobody will ever talk about it.
  - Goran on March 07, 2022 · at 6:58 pm EST/EDT
    
    Not really understanding most of your reply. But it has some intrigue so let me respond.
    
    1. Missile count, targeting, military capabilities are Russia’s concern. From recent statements in the context of a Russia/Europe conflict, those concerns have been addressed.
    2. “Ages covered in blood..” – Yes that is my point. Europe will continue covering itself in blood until they learn civil behavior based on mutual respect.
    3. “The USA will be a glass.” – Ok so you see the US getting pulverized and the rest of the world moving on. The USA is a world master of deceit, lies and manipulation. To gauge its strength on military capabilities is not a full measure of its resilience.
Perimetr on March 07, 2022 · at 5:09 pm EST/EDT

RT reported that the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, secretly visited “an airfield near the border of Ukraine last week”. I think Milley was paying a visit to the mercenary army that the US/NATO has hired, organized, and outfitted. This doesn’t appear to indicate any particular reluctance on the part of the top US brass to get into it with the Russians.

I don’t think the Ukrainians are going to agree to surrender, which means the war will get much, much bloodier in the near future as Russian troops go into Kiev and other cities to eliminate the Nazis. This will drive the neocons absolutely crazy and make some sort of US/NATO intervention even more likely.

And finally, there still remains the issue of the US missile bases in Poland and Romania. Russia may ask again, but does anyone think the US will agree to shut these down? What happens when Russia takes them out?
In other words, even if a direct US-Russian military conflict in Ukraine can be avoided, how can war be avoided if Russia goes after the Aegis Ashore bases in NATO member states?
- Taffy on March 07, 2022 · at 5:32 pm EST/EDT
  
  Maybe bases and weapons in Romania and Poland can be sabotaged . . .?
  
  Are there any patriots in these countries who might like to not be targets ?
  - James 1 on March 08, 2022 · at 2:26 am EST/EDT
    
    “And finally, there still remains the issue of the US missile bases in Poland and Romania. Russia may ask again, but does anyone think the US will agree to shut these down? What happens when Russia takes them out?”
    
    What happens is that NATO will be sure to take a closer & slower look just to make sure they still feel so ” Superior” . If they then make a move Russia has to take out their key infrastructure – but in a totally surperior manner. No room for doubt – Stop now & survive!
Edward on March 07, 2022 · at 5:10 pm EST/EDT

I doubt a nuclear confrontation, but I predict that there will be two ukraines when this thing is over. But if the ukraine not under western control (most of it) is maligned by the banderite one controlled by the US, EU and NATO, with terrorist acts and such, it is very possible that the non-western controlled part of ukraine will be absorbed into Russia. It will be much harder, if impossible for the west to send in terror squads into Russia.
John MR on March 07, 2022 · at 5:10 pm EST/EDT

+ Saker

The chart does not show one Latin American nation on Russia’s hostiles list. Does Russia dismiss these countries as “whatever” or a pity move by Rusia and don’ see then a threat at all, you know despite voting with the collective West in condemning Russia in the UN?

This is to do with sanctions not the UN vote. Mod.
Lurker on March 07, 2022 · at 5:11 pm EST/EDT

not yet Saker, cooler heads should prevail at least for the moment. I am more worried the growing humanitarian disaster currently unfolding for civilians in Ukraine along with the danger of this invasion spiralling out of control would first cascade around the world (something that I think does worry Russia’s allies).
Spiralling commodity prices are going to start taking down governments, failing governments will spark civil unrest, wars, massive refugee flows, begetting even more violence and instability, *that* is when the danger of WWIII will come more into focus — it is when this conflict spreads. If its contained then perhaps this conflict will pull the world back from the brink. Anyways that’s my 2 cents.
cdvision on March 07, 2022 · at 5:11 pm EST/EDT

I think the next phase of this war is economic not kinetic, and Russia hasn’t yet started. I posted elsewhere:

“What I think Russia will do, particularly now it has published its “bad list” of countries, is sell its commodities at 2 prices. High for those on the bad list, lower for friends. Sell directly to end-user and eliminate the traders and middle men. Or if traders want to but they buy at the high price. And no payments on SWIFT as an added bonus. This will collapse the whole house of cards in the West very quickly.”

I believe that the collapse, first in Ukraine and then in the West, when it comes will be quick and sudden. To be clear, the situation the West is in is not remotely sustainable even in the short term. An implosion, not the circumstance for WW3.
karlof1 on March 07, 2022 · at 5:13 pm EST/EDT

Thanks for the update. Again, referring to the Putin Doctrine as I’ve explained it part 1 and part 2, there remains Ukraine’s territorial rearrangement and the fulfillment of Russia’s security requirements, which entails the rollback of NATO to its 1997 status, meaning no NATO nation abutting Russia. Those goals will be achieved because that’s why Russia’s done what it’s done. Putin and Lavrov were 100% honest about what would occur if the Outlaw US Empire didn’t listen and act accordingly after breaking all the OSCE security treaties and the Russia-NATO Founding Act. And as Lavrov has reviewed many times, Russia warned the West many times, but the West with its nose in the air refused to listen–Russia was deemed defeated and incapable of resisting or doing anything to alter the status quo. Russia will now present the West with the fait accompli that’s the Putin Doctrine for it’s the West that will now be defeated and has no means to resist aside from trying to blow up the planet.

As for Banderistan, Lavrov said on 25 February that neither Russia or Ukraine would allow Nazis as neighbors. And Putin said that a complete denazification must occur, and its criminals brought to justice. Too bad the real Nazi leaders will remain out-of-reach. The question now begged: What will Russia do if NATO declines to roll itself back to 1997? IMO, Poland and the Baltics had better ponder that very hard while also considering the future of their people. Same goes for Romania. I’d also be very surprised if Ukraine doesn’t join Belarus as a Union State in the near future. Yes, that implies Russia paying to repair much of Ukraine, which I see as the cost of Russian security–better that than lives.

Globally there’s a bigger picture as Neoliberalism and the WEF squirm in their death rattle. As Hudson remarked a few days ago on Crosstalk, the entire international financial arrangement’s going to be reformed into a very different creature. And with that will come the reform of the UN System as the Joint Declaration illustrated. We’re witnessing a very rare event in human history–a Paradigm Change. Presently eggs are being broken to make the new omelet.
Z on March 07, 2022 · at 5:13 pm EST/EDT

Abandoning the idea to send planes (i.e., allow use of it airports), Poland signals fear of becoming a target of Calibers.
In all likelihood, NATO’s strategy now is and probably always has been for a long simmering conflict that will be draining Rissia’s resources and morale.
nikopiko on March 07, 2022 · at 5:13 pm EST/EDT

I think in the end the cooler heads will prevail, at least militarily, in the west. I don’t think someone like col. douglas macgregor is(was) an anomaly over at the pentagon. Listen to the main actors and their contentedness of eventual Russian victory.(ie- listen to former mi6 head https://youtu.be/Yw5lzKVn3sc )The anglozionists want to either control Russia (like in the 90’s) or isolate it and bog her down for years to come. Then to drive wedges between those that are friendly with Moscow. Then move on to dealing with the big china question. Remember, Andrei, all these idiots you hear in the media are just that useful idiots.

It’s not like 1914 when there was less to lose if things spiraled out of control. I think the west will pull back this time.It’s most likely that we’ll nuke ourselves to smithereens someday, I just don’t think we are quite there yet. there are enough natural resources to move us along peacefully for a bit longer, though people will still vie for the bigger piece of the pie.
Auka on March 07, 2022 · at 5:13 pm EST/EDT

When you go to a restaurant and pay $50 for “all you can eat”, you do not leave with “a coffee to go”.

I do not see why Russia is negotiating, unless Lavrov wants to leave with “a coffee and a cookie” (he is capable of that).

This war will be very costly to Russia in terms of sanctions, international pressure etc. etc. It would not make sense to go to war again after 5-10 years. So, do what you need to do now (if you have brain, of course).
Watching the conversation Putin had with Russian woman pilots (called air hostesses, by the West) it seems
he does have brain (not sure about Lavrov).

I can see Russia from the Danube to Sochi on the Black Sea. A small Ukraine in the west, with no arms and in the neutral status, under Russian strict controll and protectorat (similar to what West has done to Bosnia). (however leaving a single peace of territory is leaving a potential for constant and continuous trouble – so it is
better to keep them under permanent domination – in USSR there were no problems with Ukraine)

Further, Baltic states need to be taken care off. This is unfinished business, and if they do not learn from Ukraine lesson, the fate of Ukraine is upon them.

What is wrong by restoring USSR (territory). Why is USA that has right to do so in any place of this World, and Russia has no right on their own territory?! Eventually Russia will have to unify with surrounding countries and re-create USSR, if is to be secure. However, oligarch have to be dealt with first in order to have support from the ordinary people for such a project.
WJ on March 07, 2022 · at 5:14 pm EST/EDT

I posted this at MoA and will here as well, as it directly speaks to your final questions.

I have to say the more this goes on the more I see two options on the horizon, neither of which is very cheery:

1. There is a thermonuclear war in which 90% of the US and Canada and Europe and Australia and 70-75% of Russia is incinerated, and the survivors try to make it through whatever of the world remains.

2. There is a war that does not go thermonuclear, which results in the world being split into two continental blocks, which are managed very much like Oceania and Eurasia in 1984: no civil rights; all spending toward defense and state security; quasi-fascist demand for conformity with official narrative; lower quality of life; dramatic increase in propaganda and the eventual restriction and even outlawing of foreign media or opinion.

I just don’t see a third option.
- Gryunt Scarhide on March 07, 2022 · at 7:07 pm EST/EDT
  
  “no civil rights; all spending toward defense and state security; quasi-fascist demand for conformity with official narrative; lower quality of life; dramatic increase in propaganda and the eventual restriction and even outlawing of foreign media or opinion.”
  
  How is this any change from the current state of affairs in the “free West”?
- imo on March 07, 2022 · at 9:12 pm EST/EDT
  
  “I just don’t see a third option.”
  
  There is always a third “none of the above” option — and it is usually the eventual outcome.
  The problem is we can’t see it easily.
  
  The best thing to do with these statements is to posit them as scenarios (hypotheses) and put them aside in the “too easy” basket. Then work on new angles. Use metaphors.
  
  Depending on type, or preference, or disposition, look at either the outcome (vision, end-state) or the process (action in progress).
  
  What we know with more certainty than your 1 & 2 (above) is that what is happening now in the belligerent West is what should have happened in the 2007 global financial crisis. A dance with post-ideology reality. And its primary cause was the removal of the Glass Steagall Act in the USA under that criminal Bill Clinton. Again, a raid on the national savings to prop up a toxic “far from reality” Wall St Gangland project.
  
  That smooth-tongued social-worker house-negro Obama (ref: Malcolm X) kicked the can down the road to benefit his mates and himself — he is of the “Tony Blair” sell-out type of that generation. That kicked-can landed here, in 2020-22.
  
  It is complex (it is a complex):
  
  1. On the real axis all that is happening on the ground is a localised Russian operation to clear out some unsavoury gangsters in the ‘hood. This is not a novel event. So, why all the western “Nato” hysteria this time?
  
  Well, imo, it is because the bankrupt house of cards running their economies on fiat central bank play money, and claiming this is real GDP growth etc, is collapsing like a termite infested structure under the first strong winds of the storm season.
  
  The historic technology differential advantages are gone since China (and to some extent, Russia) have emerged from their post-colonial malaise. That leaves only supply chain advantage — especially in a hungry and freezing world (or cooking hot without air-conditioning). The global (& economic) North and South poles are flipping.
  
  Soon, as the local conditions worsen, both economic and social outrage/madness, the refugees from Africa and the ME will start to flow out of Europe and back to their homelands for a better life. Then who is going to clean the toilets and push the wheelchairs?
  
  It is a dramatic picture to make the point that “bombs” going off is the least of the problems for a viable future on the edge of the new prosperous world with its center in the Russia-China-Iran triangle.
  
  I’d suggest where the Europeans (& UK) are headed is a Libya scenario — that paradise lost due to nefarious wars of aggression by the Europeans & USA.
  
  MY focus is not on a “technical-military” policing action in the Ukraine borderlands and a neutral/positive buffer zone from Finland to the Black Sea. Rather, it is on the receding sea levels (as per Java & Sri Lanka) as the post-tsunami wave heads towards the shore line. What I’m pointing out is, the only way to “see” forward is via penetrating metaphor and analogy.
  
  2. In the imaginary axis (the non-real construction/narrative/discourse) domain there is all hell breaking out — mainly, imo, to try and front run the economic wave of destruction catalysed by (1) — or more, correctly, by the wests non-rational reaction to (1). Similar to the C19 event which the control-variable (Sweden & perhaps some of Africa) clearly demonstrated (even statistically) that there was little or no close correlation between the actual novel-virus (equivalent in effect to (1) above) and the hysterical government over-reactions. This 2020-21 public health crisis was a study in the mass-hysteria index. It has now shifted into the next gear.
  
  As I have pointed out in previous (on the margins) posts that suggest models to use Total Risk can be seen as real-world Hazard + Outrage. At the moment, the Hazard is low outside Ukraine. The Russians clearly have no intention to do any more than they stated in writing back in Dec 2021. Clean out the ‘hood.
  
  However, the huge non-rational over-reactions by the EU/Nato/USA (in (2) due to (1) have now started a new and wider-scale event. The economic South is rising up in hyper-outrage, not just because of risk of wheat and energy prices etc. There is also a huge post-colonial legacy of shame and anger – e.g., India at the moment. This is the equivalent of the tsunami wave coming ashore in Sri Lanka or Java. In itself, it is initially a (2) “non-real” (economic) event – i.e., words and discourse. But, given the right conditions these become and fold into real (1) type economic events. How this more hidden domain manifests on the day is hard to say and will be localised in the main. The constant will be chaos – and the law-&-control reaction to this – e.g., yellow vests in France & truckers in “Cuban-man’s” Canada.
  
  And all because the criminal-class infested governments and control rooms of the West cannot raise a white flag and say Pax! Why not? Either they want to collapse and smash the game board rather than lose the game; or they are just insane blind with ‘woke’ ideology; or they have no agency and others are pulling their strings. The interpretation can only be a probability. I’d sit with 40%; 40%; 20% respectively at the moment.
  
  What is certain, as Russian and China, (& Iran?) bunker down to feed and fuel and gadget-bling the rising Global South (India, Pakistan, Brazil, and …), is that crass-competitive criminal capitalism is gone and new “harmonised” South economy is on the rise. Rather than use the usual examples, I use Singapore – a “darling” city state department-store (with an airport) licking the UK-USA boots and a single government party that has never changed since post-ww2 post-colonial inception (far longer that Mr Putin!).
  
  Show me a Singapore industry (airlines, communications, etc) that is not government owned or controlled. It is run on Chinese Confusion (& Triad) values. This is the future SE Asia wants. The India-China-Indonesia triangle covers the vast majority of the world’s population. They are physically and conceptually as far away from western Europe as the Europeans see them “down under” etc. Singapore aside, this was the centre of the world before European colonisation. It is simply returning to that status. Once these macro-dynamics are considered, and China-Russia hegemon resistance factored in, then the main issue for the European/Anglo-American world is loss of relevance to the future. The UK-criminals are not stupid – they read this when the USA pulled out of Afghanistan. That is why we saw such angry outrage outbursts in the UK parliament. They knew it was the tipping point – and not their way. We are simply now in another larger scale “angry outrage outburst” cycle.
  
  To sum up your binary point of view and suggest a third. It is highly likely that nothing will happen once everyone settles down and looks out their windows. The Russians will simply finish cleaning out the borderland stables; LNG whatever surplus gas they have for NS2 (and maybe sanctioned NS1 if things get worse) after they pipe the quantities to China and sell on the spot market to “passing ships” off Kaliningrad; get on with life and Chinese bling; and wait and watch. It is the West and their failed economic theory and captured regulatory governments that are time-short. We are now in post-woke times.
  
  As everyone settles down and looks out their windows, some will see pleasant futures. Others will see a Libyan landscape. I suspect, many in Europe will need to sell their wives and daughters. But I’m sure they will focus group that first. What we do know is, mass refugee movements will be managed by new bio-security (“have you got your authorised-only booster shot?”) systems. This will help protect the greener pastures from the panicked outflows.
  
  It is not a conspiracy theory to suggest that Big-Tech systems of crowd control for Climate-Change refugees also just happens to work effectively for economic refugees. A White Flag cannot be raised by the crumbling empire: they have no cloth, no arms, and no brains. Hopefully the Russians (& others) will see this lack of real agency and adjust their programmes accordingly. I think their measured progress through Ukraine is a good sign.
  
  The future outcomes are in individual nation-state resolve to pay the full cost of their actions (or inactions) – no amount of higher-level abstractions (e.g., Nato) will do anything other than suck their tax-money into the military-industrial-policing complex. A poodle complex that ‘yaps’ loud but cannot go to real war. Who is going to fund a war with Russia & China & Iran on $10+/gallon fuel prices? Suffer as they will, the UK will smile at the corners of their mouths because they can see the USA now falling into the same WW1-WW2 empire collapse scenario that lost them (the UK) their 19-20th century treasure.
  - WJ on March 07, 2022 · at 9:45 pm EST/EDT
    
    Thank you for that very full response. You are right, of course, that there is *usually* always a third option. The US could one day be a functioning republic if, well, if a lot of things happened to it—first of which is a return to an isolationist non-interventionist foreign policy and a decision to focus on investment in its own land and people. As I type that out I really can’t bring myself to believe it.
    
    Here’s to your relatively sanguine view of the outcome of current events. I hope something closer to your view than mine comes to pass.
CSFurious on March 07, 2022 · at 5:15 pm EST/EDT

Your article concerns me but I have always subscribed to the theory of “mutually-assured destruction” to prevent the launching of nuclear missiles by a Superpower.
Kerwas on March 07, 2022 · at 5:18 pm EST/EDT

No you are unfort NOT wrong.
Only thing i could imagine that once the strikes hit some NATO countrys, the commanders on the Ground understood what happens and claim “oh sry could not strike cause missle is ded”.

Otherwise we will all soon glow in the dark with out Pipboys strapped
JustTruth on March 07, 2022 · at 5:21 pm EST/EDT

Russia will force Western capitulation when it announces its sanctions against the enemy countries.
BaronAsh on March 07, 2022 · at 5:23 pm EST/EDT

In response to yr ending queries: I think the desired mid-term end for this is a stalement similar to left-right politics in democracies. Both sides have their narrative which makes perfect sense to them but the two cannot find any common ground. Quite possibly Kiev will end up isolated but not surrendered, i.e. a siege.
Or maybe Kiev somehow surrendered but then Banderastan becomes the locus of the Legal Ukraine Govt in Exile recognized by the West who do not recognize Russian presence anywhere in Ukraine West. But Russia cannot leave Ukraine West because Ukraine will not fully surrender.
So it is a stalemate or siege situation.
This is the most desirable outcome because it will keep the world wide economic war in place and thus extend emergency status which is the main domestic political necessity in each major country in order to keep pushing the totalitarian paradigm-shifting agenda.
We will see severe economic collapse – as desired – social unrest, political tectonic shifts and at some point more overt totalitarian ‘Great Reset’ system introduced. Ukraine really isn’t about a border dispute between NATO and Russia.
Hans on March 07, 2022 · at 5:23 pm EST/EDT

You are right, the risk of WW3 becomes higher with time. So it would be prudent to deescalate militarily and to not further expand the operation area. It would be possible to offer all Nazi forces to withdraw from the cauldrons unhindered towards western Ukraine, to save lives of servicemen and civilians, while still getting most areas denazified. After some mop ups, the controlled areas could begin a state building process, without a large military precense. All other objectives can be forced by economic warfare much more effective. This would free forces to return to Russia. I would expect/hope this is in planning already.
Philalethes on March 07, 2022 · at 5:25 pm EST/EDT

“So, please tell me I am wrong and that the West does still have enough brains to step back from this abyss?” Can’t give any such assurance, only must stress again that the “West” is not exactly the West. All these nations are under the control of people and forces that for the most part are foreign, and would be only too happy to see them destroyed along with Russia. Their ambition is to rule over the wreckage of both.

In other words, the inevitable results of real war between Russia and NATO would be for them a feature, not a bug. It’s what they’ve been about for some time already anyway. So it is pointless to hope that the “self interest” of the Western nations might provide some check on NATO’s actions.
CS on March 07, 2022 · at 5:26 pm EST/EDT

I’m defintely ignorant on the subject but… Ukraine pipelines are considered old and not in an healthy condition. Nord Stream 2 is RIP.
Russia’s operation has basically secured all the northern Black Sea coast, reaching Transnitria.

So… Could Odessa in the future become the receiving end of a giant russian pipeline?
Blackring on March 07, 2022 · at 5:26 pm EST/EDT

Andrei,

the Anglos are hellbent to defeat Russia and steal Siberian resources. You are right they can not defeat Russia in present state. And they know it.

They will use proxies to bleed Russia until it is weaken enough to step in and strike final blow.

Spanish corrida mimic that strategy. Picadores (Ukraine, Poland, Germany) wound mighty beast, Banderilleros ( Baltic statelets, and likes) distracts it. When bull is near death, cocky fellow in flashy suit walks in, make couple of cool moves, than stabs it in the heart with sword, and walks avay with glory and reward. Nice plan, but it won’t work this time.

Russia is not mindless raging bull, World is not the arena – there is not fence around. And surprise, surprise…another beast is ready to join the fight – China.
On top of that, El Matadore is obese, opiate addicted, hasbeen celebrity. This shitshow will end up in carnage. Visitors included.

If you can, don’t go anywhere near the arena.
- Auka on March 08, 2022 · at 12:25 am EST/EDT
  
  Agree with you 100% in the Spanish corrida analogy:
  
  Picadores (Ukraine, Poland, Germany) wound mighty beast,
  Banderilleros ( Baltic statelets, and likes) distract it.
  When bull is near death, NATO/USA stepps in.
  
  But if bull does not run around from one to another, aims one picador at the time,
  ripps apart one banderillero at the time, then the bull is declared unifit and corrida is over.
  
  If the second bull would step in the arena, game is over.
  So, this is the opportunity for China to start preparation for either Taiwan invasion (not that they need it now),
  or causing military problems in South China Sea, just cause tensions and show Uncle Sam that fighting at two fronts and with two superpowers is a nightmarish situation.
  This would teach Uncle Sam some humility and would save China from going through what Russia is going now. China better understand that they are going to be the next target, so two bulls are better than one –
  I agree!
  
  El Matador is a cocky fellow in flashy suit, full of pride and think he is exceptional. He is not rational and
  teaching him reality can save us all from nuclear armagedon. Otherwise, one small misscalculation and it is all over.
MJ12 on March 07, 2022 · at 5:27 pm EST/EDT

Saker:

Iceland, isn’t that where your website servers are?

May need to look into moving?
Ian Kummer on March 07, 2022 · at 5:30 pm EST/EDT

I would like EVERYONE to look at this Google Trends graph. I cannot upload pictures, apparently, but you can find it in the link below. This alone is proof that the West had no intention of peace, and is deliberately peddling lies to their respective publics.
https://readingjunkie.com/2022/02/22/the-minsk-agreement-and-the-big-lie/

We need to continue talking about the Minsk Agreement, as this thoroughly debunks the idea of “Russian provocations.” Regardless of who technically struck the first blow – it was the Banderist regime and the West that refused to adhere to the Minsk agreement. This was a clear roadmap to peace that was ignored for eight years.

I made a bunch of predictions, and restated them back on Feb. 22. Some were proven wrong, or sort of wrong – like SWIFT, or Russia’s “special operation” itself. However, it is interesting that even in the middle of a war, the Ukrainian gas transit pipeline remains in operation.
Chris on March 07, 2022 · at 5:31 pm EST/EDT

A psychopath cannot become a moral person. Ever. Doesn’t have a conscience. Cannot have a conscience. When a country is ruled by psychopaths, for the birds of a feather stick together, the politics of that country becomes politics of psychopaths. And they will pursue their politics to the bitter end. There is plenty of examples in the history.

Wow to Russia if it will trust ever their word.
Harry on March 07, 2022 · at 5:32 pm EST/EDT

The west has painted itself into a corner and they can’t see a way out, so they are muddling through for now, hoping that a solution will announce itself in time.

They’ve been telling the sheep for decades that Russia is a backwards, poor and underdeveloped place that thanks whatever wealth it does have to the west. In other words, they’ve let the sheep (and themselves too, probably) believe that Russia is dependent on them, economically speaking.

While that may have been true in the 90s, it certainly isn’t now. On the contrary, without Russian raw materials for fertilizer, the European agricultural sector will collapse. Without Russian aluminum and titanium, the European car industry will collapse. Without Ukrainian freon and argon, the high tech industry in the west might very well collapse.Those are just a couple of examples. There are plenty more.

Russia, on the other hand, needs very few commodities from foreign countries, and what she needs she can get from her allies. She does ‘depend’ on the west for certain types of goods and services, but that dependency is almost entirely based on patents and intellectual property rights. Almost none of it is beyond Russia’s capability to produce or provide on its own. The only thing holding it back is the respect it has so far given to intellectual property rights. If that ends … well, then we’re talking about losses to western economies counted in the trillions (dollars, not rubles).

So basically, the west, and Europe in particular, when it comes to its economic stance towards Russia, is holding a gun to its own head. They’ve cocked the trigger and are now threatening Russia with pulling the trigger. It’s insane, but that’s pretty much what they’re doing.

Because of the way the west has projected Russia towards its own population for decades now, its leaders can’t suddenly backtrack, not without committing political suicide personally. A real statesman might have the guts to sacrifice him or herself for their country’s well-being, but we’re awfully short on those. Our current crop will rather try and save their own political skins, even if they risk global war in doing so.

So to save that skin domestically, they need to exude strength and come up with all sorts of ways to be seen to be punishing Russia. That is the crucial part. It is not as much about actually hurting Russia as it is to create the perception for their own people that they are actually doing something. Inaction is not an option. Hence all the watered down sanctions and other measures that look great on paper (with some help from the MSM) but don’t amount to all that much. And hence the campaign against everything Russian in the cultural sphere. It makes it look like they are doing something.

It reminds me a lot of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QmvEbphF8c

There are a myriad of risks and problems with this approach:

– the law of unintended consequences, especially as the west seems to be winging it.

– the law of diminishing returns, there’s only so may athletes and cats they can ban and only so many halfhearted economic measures they can take.

– They’ve whipped up an frenzy and they may well decide they need to do ‘more’ to satisfy the crowds. Mobs are unpredictable and unruly and may push even western politicians into directions they’d rather not go but feel forced to anyway.

– just as the west falsely believes in their economic superiority over Russia, they also believe in their military superiority. That may lead them to takes foolish risks, as they would believe that Russia would have to know that too.

For me, the biggest risk lies in the fact that they have led the vast majority of their people to believe in a fake reality regarding Russia and its real economic and military power. As they still have a modicum of democracy left int he west, the politicians there can’t completely ignore the popular wishes. Even if those wishes are based on a perception of reality that is fake.
- Arfur Mo on March 07, 2022 · at 5:46 pm EST/EDT
  
  “The Government allowed no compensation to be paid to patent holders from unfriendly countries. The decree was signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.”
  
  https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_398724/9e774b54618bce923b7af44ecdf660b554118cdb/
  - Harry on March 07, 2022 · at 6:09 pm EST/EDT
    
    I’ve looked at your link and i don’t see your quote anywhere in it (I speak almost no Russian so I’m using Yandex translate).
    
    As far as I can tell this merely arranges for payment for patents where the patent holder had not given consent for its use:
    
    “2. The amount of compensation is 0.5 percent of the actual revenue of a person who has exercised the right to use an invention, utility model or industrial design without the consent of the patent owner, from the production and sale of goods, performance of works and provision of services for the production, performance and provision of which the corresponding invention, utility model or industrial design is used.”
    
    Half a percent of revenue (not profit!) is still a large sum to pay for patent use.
    - Andrey N on March 07, 2022 · at 7:36 pm EST/EDT
      
      «Rossiyskaya gazeta» – ofitsial’nyy pechatnyy organ Pravitel’stva Rossiyskoy Federatsii. 07.03.2022 https://rg.ru/2022/03/07/mishustin-obnulil-kompensacii-vladelcam-patentov-iz-nedruzhestvennyh-stran.html?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop Mishustin obnulil kompensatsii vladel’tsam patentov iz nedruzhestvennykh stran Pravitel’stvo razreshilo ne vyplachivat’ kompensatsii vladel’tsam patentov iz nedruzhestvennykh stran. Postanovleniye podpisano prem’yer-ministrom Mikhailom Mishustinym. Glava kabmina vnes izmeneniya v metodiku opredeleniya kompensatsiy, kotoryye vyplachivayutsya pravoobladatelyu pri reshenii ispol’zovat’ izobreteniye bez yego soglasiya. Soglasno dokumentu, v otnoshenii vladel’tsev patentov iz nedruzhestvennykh stran razmer vyplaty sostavlyayet 0% fakticheskoy vyruchki ot proizvodstva i realizatsii tovarov, vypolneniya rabot i okazaniya uslug, yesli ispol’zovany dlya etogo sootvetstvuyushchiye izobreteniya, poleznaya model’ ili promyshlennyy obrazets.
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      “Rossiyskaya Gazeta” is the official press organ of the Government of the Russian Federation.
      03/07/2022
      https://rg.ru/2022/03/07/mishustin-obnulil-kompensacii-vladelcam-patentov-iz-nedruzhestvennyh-stran.html?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop
      
      Mishustin canceled compensation for patent holders from unfriendly countries
      
      The government allowed no compensation to be paid to patent holders from unfriendly countries. The resolution was signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
      
      The head of the Cabinet has made changes to the methodology for determining the compensation that is paid to the right holder when deciding to use the invention without his consent. According to the document, in relation to patent holders from unfriendly countries, the amount of payment is 0% of the actual proceeds from the production and sale of goods, performance of work and provision of services, if the relevant inventions, utility model or industrial design are used for this.
      
      http://government.ru/news/44746/
      - Harry on March 08, 2022 · at 6:16 am EST/EDT
        
        Thanks. This is huge.
- The Kansan on March 07, 2022 · at 6:29 pm EST/EDT
  
  @Harry –
  
  Great synopsis: “So basically, the west, and Europe in particular, when it comes to its economic stance towards Russia, is holding a gun to its own head. They’ve cocked the trigger and are now threatening Russia with pulling the trigger. It’s insane, but that’s pretty much what they’re doing.”
  
  Exactly. And the blowback will be on them – not on Russia. I do not expect many of the current crop of Democraps that presently hold office in the USA to survive the mid-term elections. The rout might bury the party for good.
  - Don B on March 07, 2022 · at 10:19 pm EST/EDT
    
    If you’ve ever seen the movie Blazing Saddles your comment reminds me of the scene where the hero black sheriff puts a gun to his head when confronted with a hostile crowd and tells everyone that if they try to harm him he’ll kill the sheriff. They all back away in horror! :)
    - KL on March 08, 2022 · at 2:34 am EST/EDT
      
      Haha….I was exactly thinking of that scene!!
      It put a smile on my face, in these sad times.
  - Norhm Fowler on March 08, 2022 · at 7:21 am EST/EDT
    
    As an American, I can only say that elections here are far from locked up. Whatever the major American press touts about the presidential election, I’d say more than half of us, including myself believe it was stolen. Trump was a novice when it came to DC politics. The politicians in DC are the creme de la creme of dis-honorableness, hypocrisy, and now senility.
    
    I believe my eyes and ears. One need only watch the recent state of the union, in particularity Biden, VP Harris, and Pelosi, to understand that we are a very lost country with not only depraved leadership, but mentally deficient, demented and retarded leadership. I contrast our leadership with that Putin-watching him speak and expound deeply on economic, historical, and spiritual subjects, and I understand even further weak we are. To add insult to injury, our major media paints Putin as a deranged madman and our leadership as moral, intellectual pinnacles of decency. I feel like I’m crazy watching this.
    
    As far as the last few generations of Americans, you won’t see them here, they are dumber than dogshit. What is most important is that the newsreaders be transgender, gay, or minimally of color. It’s about the woke presentation not the facts. Cooper Anderson has that measured but firm voice, and he is gay with a baby, definitely trustworthy. I think the younger generation, a fraction of them, can get through a couple articles of the Huffpost, and because they are not getting their news from a Facebook blurb they think they are intellectuals.
    
    I don’t know if this is common, but a younger acquaintance of mine, half my age and Ivy leagues educated, was trying to settle a political discussion with me and he was sending me links to the Huffpost. He either gets his news there or he thinks I’m so stupid that this is the only form of press I will understand?
    
    We are a paper tiger. We are rotted out inside and becoming more so. Lets hope we are not overconfident to boot or danger is on the horizon.