This article was written for the Unz Review: http://www.unz.com/tsaker/major-syria-developments-soon/
A number of events have happened recently which point to the possibility that something might be brewing in the Syrian conflict.
First and foremost, there was Erdogan’s apology to Russia which was really much more than just an apology. The Turks have really extended a hand to Russia and their offer officially includes not only a return of Russian tourists or the sale of Turkish veggies in Russia, but a strong collaboration between the two countries against terrorism and even join military operations. The Turks have even indicated that they would be willing to offer Russia the use of the Incirlik airbase for Russian aircraft involved in the air operations against Daesh & Co. Then the Turks denied it, which is fair enough and which is how they, apparently, do business. Either way, the Russians politely declined (more about that later)
Second, just two weeks after another “leak” which claimed that 51 US diplomats wanted Obama to authorize airstrikes against government forces in Syria, the WaPo “leaked” the news that the USA was offering the Russians a new “military partnership” in Syria only to vehemently denounce this plan a couple of days later. “Moon of Alabama” immediately and correctly denounced this so-called offer as “nonsense”.
Third, while the Syrian move to advance towards Raqqa has clearly run into some major difficulties, there are sign indicating that the city of Aleppo might soon be fully encircled by the government forces.
Fourth, the Russian military has confirmed that heavy aircraft-carrying missile cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov might be soon deployed to the Mediterranean
Fifth, Defense Minister Shoigu has announced that he was promoting the current commander of the Russian task force in Syria, Colonel-General Alexander Dvornikov, to the post of the commander of the Southern Military District.
So what does all that mean?
Concerning the first point, it is remarkable that while Erdogan is personally extremely disliked in Russia, all the Russian military and foreign policy experts agree that Russia should, and will, resume cooperation with Turkey. There is an acute awareness in Russia that, like it or not, Turkey is a key player in the region and that Russia must therefore engage with any Turkish leader. Furthermore, the Russians feel that they are in a very advantageous position of strength and that now is the time to press Turkey for some real changes. Topping the Russian agenda is the objective to get Turkey to *really* close the Turkish-Syrian border and to stop financing Daesh by shutting down the illegal trade in oil. Second, several Turkey specialists have expressed the opinion that the bombing in Istanbul was really a Daesh warning to Erdogan and that this indicates that Erdogan took a real risk by turning to Russia and that Russia must now give him something tangible to support him in his terrible position. Again, this is not going to be a love-fest between the Kremlin and Ankara, but a case of pure Realpolitik where the Russian feel that they must set aside their feeling of distrust, and even disgust, and very carefully play the “Erdogan” card. At the very least, the Russians will demand an end to Turkish support for terrorism in the Caucasus and Central Asia and some tangible signs of real, meaningful Turkish collaboration against Daesh. In exchange, the Russians have indicated that they are willing to resume collaboration with Turkey on energy (gas, oil, nuclear plants) and economic (building, transportation) issues.
Russia has no need and no interest in the Incirlik air base. Not only is it basically run by the USA, but Russian aircraft have the reach to bomb anywhere in Syria if needed.
What is currently happening in the USA can only be described as utter chaos. When when a large number of diplomats admit that their own craft, diplomacy, is useless and when the only thing they can recommend is the fully illegal and, I would add, irresponsible use of force against a sovereign country (Syria) which is allied with, and hosting the forces of, a nuclear superpower (Russia), you know that you are dealing with a clueless and incompetent gang of amateurs. This also is the sign that the United States have lost the control (or even the illusion of control) and that the inevitable infighting has begun. That is very bad news because it makes the USA even more unpredictable and prone to “quickfix solutions” (which in the case of the USA is always more military violence and escalation). While I agree with Moon of Alabama that the US offer is a no-starter, I also see it as a possible diversionary maneuver of those in the USA who want to prevent the Neocon crazies from triggering a direct confrontation with Russia. If that is the case, some vague promise of collaboration from Russia would be good enough to at least temporarily shut up the crazies and hope that Trump gets elected.
All we know so far is that Obama and Putin have spoken on the phone and that, according to a Russian statement,
During the discussion of the situation in Syria, Vladimir Putin urged Barack Obama to facilitate as quickly as possible the separation of moderate Syrian opposition forces from the terrorist group Jabhat al-Nusra and other extremists that are not covered by the ceasefire regime. Both sides reaffirmed their readiness to step up coordination of American and Russian military actions in Syria, and emphasised the importance of resuming inter-Syrian negotiations under the aegis of the UN to achieve a a political settlement.
Whether any real “coordination” ever truly materializes remains to be seen.
In the meantime, the Syrians clearly need more help and while they are apparently making progress around Aleppo elsewhere they are running into problems. Rumor has it that Iranian forces have also taken a pounding recently. Some Russian experts are saying that the reason for this is that Hezbollah has made the determination that liberating Aleppo is the single most important goal and that crack Hezbollah fighters have been withdrawn from other sectors and concentrated around Aleppo. Whatever may be the case, in the Raqqa province Daesh still seems to be in control. This might change if the US somehow manages to convince the Kurds to make a push for Raqqa, especially if the Turks cut off the northern supplies routes to Daesh and the Russians help the Syrians. This could happen if only because anything could happen, I suppose, but I will believe it when I see it. It will be awfully hard to get the Kurds, who are basically fighting a civil war in Turkey, to agree to divert resources to the south and east to fight Daesh. The obvious solution is to get US boots on the ground, but that is politically very difficult for Obama who has promised numerous times not to do so. Of course, the *real* solution would be to make a deal with Russia and Assad and then jointly crush Daesh, but that would extremely humiliating for the United States. There are probably constituencies lobbying for all these options right now and I won’t even try to guess who will prevail.
While it is true that the Russian have confirmed that the Admiral Kuznetsov will be sent to the Mediterranean, silly rumors about “countering NATO” are, yet again, being circulated. The truth is that the Kuznetsov, while a formidable ship indeed, is also a Cold War “fossil” which was originally designed to extend the range of Soviet air defenses protecting the submarine bastions of the Soviet Navy. By the way, the correct classification for this kind of ship is not “aircraft carrier” but “heavy aircraft-carrying missile cruiser” (тяжёлый авианесущий крейсер) which means that unlike, say, USN aircraft carriers, the primary armament of the Kuznetsov are her powerful anti-ship missiles designed to sink US carriers.
On the Admiral Kuznetsov powerful missiles are hidden under the runway
Her complement of aircraft, fixed and rotary-wing, are a secondary capability: to extend the sensor range and to protect. This will probably change in the future, but in its current configuration the Admiral Kuznetsov is definitely a weird ship: her anti-ship missiles are useless against Daesh. Her rotary and fixed wing aircraft have been modernized and are very capable, but they are also extremely limited in numbers: 15 SU-33 and MiG-29K/KUB and more than ten Ка-52К, Ка-27 and Ка-31. So, at most, there will be, maybe, 10 navalized (and modernized) MiG-29K/KUB which would be a real threat to Daesh, plus a few Ka-52K. The SU-33 is a pure air-to-air interceptor, though capable of “dumb” (unguided) bombing while the Ka-27 and Ka-31 are SAR and EW helos respectively. Bottom line – in terms of fighting Daesh, the Admiral Kuznetsov brings very little. What she does bring, however, a world-class air defense capabilities and advanced command, control and communication. In other words, the Kuznetsov is an ideal task force command post. That, and the SU-33/MiG-29K combo, can very substantially increase the Russian capability of having advanced air-to-air aircraft on station for combat air patrols. But, remember, Daesh has no air force, so make your own conclusions here :-)
A Sukhoi-33 interceptor prepares for take-off
Here I would tie-in the promotion of Colonel-General Dvornikov, a man who knows the Syrian operational environment extremely well, to the Southern Military District, the district which, should things get ugly in Syria, would be the district supporting all Russian efforts in Syria and upon whom the Russian task force in Syria would be vitally dependent on. What better choice could there be for the Russian task force in Syria than to have its former Commander now in charge of support from the Motherland?
I have no way of knowing what the Russians and the Turks or the Russians and the Americans are discussing behind closed doors, so I won’t even pretend. But what I see is Russia, yet again, taking steps which would be expected of her if the Kremlin had come to the conclusion that the situation in Syria is likely to heat up again. Oh sure, it could be that Dvornikov got promoted to a position of responsibility just because a man like him was needed in the very important Southern Military District and that the Kuznetsov is just being sent to the Syrian cost for some, shall we say, “realistic trials”. But I have the feeling that the Russians are maximizing their options while the Americans are clearly struggling to even define what their policy now really is.
And just to make things more complicated, there are some semi-official differences between the Russians and the Iranians who wanted a much larger Russian intervention and who don’t believe in the peace process initiated by Putin. Finally, it is not at all clear from the Russian statements so far that they are willing to continue their intervention until the last Daesh fighter is killed, which is the position of Assad. So while Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and the Syrian have found a great deal of common interests, Russia is not in the position to act like a mini-USA and just give orders to everybody else. There are real differences in opinion between these loosely allied forces and each one retains a very large freedom of maneuver.
The political logic of a US pre-election period would suggest that US-generated conflicts such as the ones in the Ukraine and the one in Syria should remain limited to minor moves until the new administration gets elected and takes over. This might still happen in Syria, but a lot of signs are beginning to point to a possible acceleration of events on the ground.
The Saker
Washington is freaking out cause they know that when the truth about what they have been doing in Syria comes out, people are going to prison.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3ivZKHE-STk&ebc=ANyPxKrcxNk7N0kgA-87zgCIaI9hClQtuKV6XO00FbrwNY5U_lTjAy6VV7pi9B28EzvD3w0GldPH
Virginia State Senator Black on his visit to Damascus.
Slight correction: SHOULD be going to jail. But they won’t. Not in America today. Ask Hitlery Clinton.
Maybe if they want to scapegoat some pathetic underling, but nobody in the nomenklatura. One law for me and thee, another for the Uebermenschen.
Mr. Black never ever mentions the Israeli ,Mossad link to the terrorists operating in Syria. Thus mr. Black is peddling already known facts. It means nothing if he is not calling it as it is. It’s a start I suppose. Mr. Black knows full well that his career would be over within 24 hours if he mentions Israel.
You have to play the game with the cards you’re delt I suppose. Still, it’s a very significant shift for a Southern evangelical.
Dynamite! Senator Black is gentle dynamite. Must view.
The Senator forgot or did not want to say that the structure of power in Lebanon, is a French invention, not a Lebanese one. The French would have never dare to implement that weird and undemocratic rule in their own country, so they imposed it on tiny Lebanon, which by the way is a “country” they created by carving up Syria. Senator Black seems to be a good man, but he is not totally honest about many things so far, also he is not being honest about Hassan al Banna, for whom the senator is unable to know and pronounce his correct last name, and that means he does not know anything about Hassan al Banna, the founder of the MB, and much less about the history of the MB. If mister Hassan al Banna was still alive he would have completely cleaned up the “house” and would have eliminated most of the current MB extremist members, because keep in mind that the MB also have sincere, peaceful and honest people, I don’t subscribe to the MB at all, but let’s not be as radical as those we are pointing our fingers at. Big part of this nice man (mr Black) speech is mis-information, does he do it by ignorance or by calculation ?
@Brahim
https://youtu.be/LFOlOwoVT3k
If — IF — the US wanted to crush Daesh, all the pieces are in place. The failure to do so is strong proof the Obama administration is more concerned to thwart the Main Enemy in Moscow, despite all their blab about “ISIL” “ISIL” ISIL”.
From “To Crush ISIS, America Needs All the Allies It Can Get” http://nationalinterest.org/feature/crush-isis-america-needs-all-the-allies-it-can-get-16868 :
The fact is, there already are “boots on the ground”—lots and lots of them, closing in on the ISIS capital in Raqqa, Syria:
• In March, the Syrian Army and its allies (including Hezbollah and Christian militias), with Russian air support, recaptured Palmyra from ISIS and are now moving to retake Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, from Jabhat al-Nusra, the local Al Qaeda affiliate.
• Kurdish YPG “People’s Protection Units” are advancing against ISIS with American (and Russian) support.
• The Iraqi Army and allied Shiite militias, with American (and Iranian) support, have just seized the last ISIS stronghold near Fallujah, in Iraq’s western Anbar Province.
In short, from the west, north and east, tens if not hundreds of thousands of battled-tested Syrian, Kurdish and Iraqi fighters, backed up by the world’s two most powerful air forces, are in a position to crush Raqqa, and perhaps twenty-five thousand ISIS terrorists, in a deadly three-sided vise. However, anti-ISIS fighters need help, and if history can teach us something, we could—and should—be looking for a Levantine replay of the historical linkage of American and Soviet troops on the Elbe River in the German city of Torgau on April 25, 1945, when the two armies successfully cut the Nazi army in two and brought an end to World War II.
You have to remember, the Takafiri lunatics are an American “asset”, and given the evil that pervades Washington, they will not let go.
There is talk that Obama wants to end the Syrian debacle, but given his record, there is an equal chance that he wants to squeeze one last duplicity in with the time he has left.
The talk of the crazies being unleashed could be real or could be fake. Who knows? We like to give the benefit of the doubt, but with Obama, when has that ever paid off?
If he was sincere he would have held off on the missile base in Korea.
Personally, I don’t believe it. I don’t believe Obama can be trusted. Can he really be that feckless? He is a firm believer in the theory of exceptionalism. Exceptionalism is a repudiation of any human decency, and we have not seen a shred of decency during his tenure. He is a wanker.
Its important to remember the final results of that Elbe meeting. It marked the division of Germany into two for decades. Allowing the US and their stooges to seize ever more Syrian territory would lead to the partition of Syria. And would serve the NATO plans. If they can’t have “all” Syria they’ll split it. It means nothing to them the fate of the Syrian people.This is a fact, Syria,Iran,Hezbollah,and Russia,need to fully understand and prevent from happening.
That National Interest article is disinformation and reiterates the Nazi-Style Big Lie that America is sincerely “fighting terrorism.”
It conveniently ignores that the United States and its allies have been Daesh’s biggest sponsors and supporters.
Without the American Axis of Terrorism, Daesh and other Islamicist jihadists would have been crushed a long time ago or even never been spawned.
What is happening is that, because of the Russia intervention, America’s terrorist proxies in Syria are losing, so the USA has been forced to make a desperate tactical (not principled) change and sucker Russia into a “partnership” so as to save the USA’s precious moderate terrorists.
Trusting the USA is like trusting a mafia godfather
You will get a knife in the back or a bullet in your head, when he offers his hand in partnership to you.
Only that the Mafia Godfathers have a code of honor despite the filthy business they are in. The filthy thugs in Washington NEVER heard of any such code.
The only real reason why Erdogan apologized to Russia is as “simple” as:
The ISIS proxy (of usa, turkey, SA, Qatar, Israel) is loosing in Syria.
When USA realized that isis downfall in Syria was inevitable, the usa also stepped up in doing some actions against isis (before 99% was just fake).
And usa is now running with the 2nd option: kurdish rebellion.
The Kurds are getting strong, and they have allready carved out big chu ks of Iraq and Syria to themselves.
Which is just as good for usa, SA and Qatar oil/gass industry. (They get their pipes eventually and they get contracts through the kurds to the resources).
And as a bonus, the Kurds may in future be so powerfull that they can maybe help usa destabilize iran. (Very long run).
So its a win-win for usa.
For Turkey however that 2nd option the kurds, is the hell scenario for the turks.
They wanted to use isis to rebuild the ottoman empire.
Now instead they get a stronger and stronger kurds, which will very likely lead to civil war in Turkey (big portion of turkey is made up of kurds!).
So its a nightmare scenario for tirkey.
So when their “friend” usa backstabed their isis-project (because isis was about to fall due to russian strategy+syrian+hizbollah+iran special forces).
So instead turkey is faced with a serious internal threat.
So it became in turkeys interest to be friendlier with russia again. (Isis train is doomed).
Makes sense. That would explain all the heroic Kurd videos on utube.
did anon reply to anon, or anon, or himself? or next anon. ?
makes lots of sense on Turkey’s change of heart!
You forgot one minor teeny weeny thing that almost all arm chair commentators make regarding Kurds.
Kurds are ethnically Iranian and are recent immigrants (in the last 200 years) from Iran.
It is doubtful that Kurds would cause upset for their own lands and people in Iran where many of them still have contact with relatives.
Kurds are newcomers to Iraq, Syria and Turkey and are not indigenous, just as in the same way the Turkic people of Turkey are not indigenous.
Many areas Kurds claim in Syria they are actually the minority newcomers in. The same in Iraq and Turkey.
The Kurds are not welcome in Syria despite what the media says. Their immigrants status in Turkey is the real cause of the Turkish state victimising them.
Not at all certain why the Admiral Kuznetsov has been deployed to the Mediterranean. It has a few thrust-vectored aircraft, Sukhoi 27’s ans 33’s, which are out-and-out air superiority fighters. Is the Russian Federation expecting an air contest? Warning against one? I doubt it,
It also has a number of excellent helicopters, but they would be much better based in Khemeimin. Possibly the Admiral Kuznetsov will serve as off-shore re-supply and repair of attack helicopters? Assisting Khemeimin?
More likely this is a shake-down before the Admiral Kuznetzov’s refurbishment next year. There’s no doubt it’s had a number of problems, from troubles with it engines to the missiles. Russia is learning a lot about it’s military systems from the Syrian involvement, most of which have been positive.
But there is a lot of geo-politics going on here. Mainly about the desire of Qatar/Saudi’s/US to establish a gas route through Syria. Who declared a preference for a gas-line from Iran.
The conservative states would also like to break up the ‘Shia Crescent’ from Iran via Syria through to the Lebanon. And so the US would also like to ‘balkanize’ Syria, establishing a friendly Kurdish state (very different from that Barziani-led mob in Iraq), killing two birds in one stone.
It much depends on who takes over Al-Raqqah. Which I think explains why the SAA attempted their abortive thrust into Raqqah province toward the Taqba airbase, assuming much of Islamic State forces had been sucked north to defend against the Kurdish forces assault over the Euphrates. Didn’t happen, bad luck with the sandstorms that prevented any air support.
The Kuznetsov has always wintered in the Mediterranean when seaworthy. There’s not much it can do when the Arctic Ocean freezes over, and the Arctic night lasts for 23 hours of the day, but let the crew sit in Murmansk and lose its edge. It was in the Mediterranean for its fifth sunshine deployment during the 2013-2014 winter. It would train its air wing by teasing the Israeli air defences. The proposed deployment seems to be typical of the past ones, with the Syrian war just a useful pretext for a bit of actual combat training.
The Arctic doesn’t freeze over these days. Further, I suspect the Admiral Kuznetsov is largely a white elephant, looking for a reason to exist. It is best at off-shore assistance to a land campaign, such as Syria (or Kaliningrad). It’s not an exercise in force-projection, like an America aircraft carrier, together with its associated fleet of Aegis cruisers and guided missile destroyers and attack submarines. So it’s in the Mediterranean to figure out just how it should be re-designed.
Conflict heating up? Hello.
When are the Rio Olympics on exactly????
Beijing 2008 & Georgia/ South Ossetia.
Sochi 2014 & Ukraine
Rio 2016?
Be on high alert in a month’s time.
Love the article BUT there is one major problem Obama is not going anywhere election or no election.
I have imagined that the November election doesn’t happen due to a state of emergency and martial law. Is this what you mean?
Been hearing that since Bush I, then Clinton, then Bush II, and now O.
Not gonna happen without a fallout cloud floating over New York, imo.
War, either a re-ignition of a smoldering one (uke?) or a very big theater escalation of this Syria one, will be the cover for the next big financial collapse, could be any day.
They all know the timetable. Hell, they’ve all got the script from their controllers & are following it to the letter. That’s why the pieces are moving into pre-position.
Quite a shock, the, to read this about recent events at DB Deutschebank, & its lesser entity Monte bank Italy, & the inferred insults hurled back & forth these few days between Italy & Germany.
The presumed “POR or point of recognition” where abandon ship is hollered is single digits on DB. Today it’s at 12.5 closing the week, & it can do that distance drop in 1 day, as it did the day after the BrExit vote was done.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/41953/germany-cant-save-deutsche-bank
The belief by Wall Street that Germany will not allow DBK to fail is fading. Post the Brexit, tensions are running high among the remaining members, as seen in the spat between Germany and Italy. Due to the earlier hard stance of the Germans, it is likely that any move to bailout DBK will face considerable resistance from all of the member nations. If allowed to fail, DBK will cause a ‘crisis’ many times over that of which Lehman Brothers did. The final meltdown commences!
“the final meltdown” has been advocated, or evoked, for many years now. All we saw were partial meltdowns after which Mammon´s diktat was even stronger.
It cannot be the failure of one large bank only – DB or which ever – that makes Globalism go down the gutter. Mother Nature must intervene Herself. And She will. Even in USA and Germany there are some people who – no matter if they will die themselves in this process – pray for Her intervention!
The rock band TOOL made an excellent song (“Aenema” – from “anima” – the Soul or Mother Earth, and “enema” – colon cleansing) about this subject, the lyrics of which I copy here.
(To the Mod: please dont delete the text for its content of “obscene” words, as its subject itself, Mammonism and its consequences for human minds, is impure and cant be described in beauty)
“Ænema”
Some say the end is near.
Some say we’ll see Armageddon soon.
I certainly hope we will.
I sure could use a vacation from this
Bullshit three ring circus sideshow of freaks
Here in this hopeless fucking hole we call L.A.
The only way to fix it is to flush it all away.
Any fucking time. Any fucking day.
Learn to swim, I’ll see you down in Arizona Bay.
Fret for your figure and
Fret for your latte and
Fret for your lawsuit and
Fret for your hairpiece and
Fret for your Prozac and
Fret for your pilot and
Fret for your contract and
Fret for your car.
It’s a bullshit three ring circus sideshow of freaks
Here in this hopeless fucking hole we call L.A.
The only way to fix it is to flush it all away.
Any fucking time. Any fucking day.
Learn to swim, I’ll see you down in Arizona Bay.
Some say a comet will fall from the sky.
Followed by meteor showers and tidal waves.
Followed by fault lines that cannot sit still.
Followed by millions of dumbfounded dip shits.
Some say the end is near.
Some say we’ll see Armageddon soon.
I certainly hope we will cause
I sure could use a vacation from this
Stupid shit, silly shit, stupid shit…
One great big festering neon distraction,
I’ve a suggestion to keep you all occupied.
Learn to swim. [3x]
Mom’s gonna fix it all soon.
Mom’s comin’ round to put it back the way it ought to be.
Learn to swim.
Fuck L Ron Hubbard and
Fuck all his clones.
Fuck all these gun-toting
Hip gangster wannabes.
Learn to swim.
Fuck retro anything.
Fuck your tattoos.
Fuck all you junkies and
Fuck your short memory.
Learn to swim.
Fuck smiley glad-hands
With hidden agendas.
Fuck these dysfunctional,
Insecure actresses.
Learn to swim.
Cause I’m praying for rain
And I’m praying for tidal waves
I wanna see the ground give way.
I wanna watch it all go down.
Mom, please flush it all away.
I wanna see it go right in and down.
I wanna watch it go right in.
Watch you flush it all away.
Time to bring it down again.
Don’t just call me pessimist.
Try and read between the lines.
I can’t imagine why you wouldn’t
Welcome any change, my friend.
I wanna see it all come down.
Bring it down
Suck it down.
Flush it down.
Turkey, with feet on all sides of this conflict in Iraq, Syrian and at home but still firmly under NATO control means Turkey cannot be trusted pass a 24 hour mark as Erodgan has already proven a treacherous actor. Reports of a massing of CIA jihadist, claiming numbers up to 40,000 fighters for a big battle for Aleppo is chilling. This may be the big show written of in this article. One big final battle to decidedly determine the final outcome in a hastening of result, as Hezbollah has most likely properly sensed through its intelligence.
I just wish this war was at an end for the sake of the Syrian people primarily and for the safety and security of the larger world.
from RT about helicopter shoot down
https://www.rt.com/news/350336-isis-russia-helicopter-killed/
The Mi-25 is the export version of the Mi-24D; a ‘monkey model’. Add to that, their flight was originally to just test weapons after a refit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_variants_of_Soviet_military_equipment
The Russian pilots should never have taken it into real combat; they would have an exaggerated sense of its capabilities based on extensive experience with the ‘real’ thing. Brave they were, certainly, but also a little too eager for battle.
Its also possible they also didn’t have the flares that usually are fired upon withdrawal to decoy AA missiles. The DAESH are American proxies; presumably they know how to lure attack helicopters into ambush; TOW missiles look like they need a little setup time.
Saker, nearing the end of June, a senior Israeli official, Major General Herzi Halevy head of Military Intelligence, in his address to the Herzliya Conference, told the audience that Israel does not want ISIS defeated in Syria.
To this end, Israel will be doing everything it can to see this NOT happen!!
How does this stance by Israeli factor into the developments that you have just outlined?
Jaro, I heard the opposite from an article in the Debka Files. I’d link, but this was a good six months ago, and previous articles are behind a pay-wall. I think the Israeli’s now fear an ISIS/Jabhat Al-Nusra take-over of Syria. This is an unknown, whereas the Al-Assad government is. Unless you think Al-Qaeda and Islamic State are out-and-out CIA proxies.
“”I think the Israeli’s now fear an ISIS/Jabhat Al-Nusra take-over of Syria.””
I thought that was the goal?
To have it become a Terrorist State, that Nato and IDF would have to move in to eliminate, and well, there is all this land going to waste here now……might as well start building settlements.
especially when seeing these ‘ultimatums’ delivered now by Iran to Russia, as well as its clear message of calling out their complicity is no doubt a thinly veiled reference to the backstabbing they’ve got so far over their 2010 order of mere S-300s!
Still undelivered, now estimating spring 2017—honest!
TEHRAN (FNA)- Top Advisor to Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Brigadier General Khosro Orouj called on Moscow to use its defense missile shield in Syria to target all enemy targets violating the war-ravaged country’s airspace.
“The anti-aircraft systems that Russia has brought to Syria shouldn’t allow even one single (enemy) aircraft to fly over the country, but this is not happening,” General Orouj said with much regret.
His remarks came as Israeli airstrikes in Syria have been widely reported over the last five years of the country’s crisis in support of the Takfiri terrorists.
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950419001062
There have been no documented Israeli airstrikes from within Syrian airspace since the S400s were in place. They have stood off and fired missiles into Syria.
Iran is a joke. They have been the real cause of Hezbollah’s diminishment, the offensives bogging down, the Russians having to recalibrate and make political moves (diplomacy) instead of destroying Daesh.
Iran has the manpower to expend but its geopolitical doctrine is to use proxy shia armies and brigades.
That’s how they fight in Iraq, and they do the same in Syria.
They want Russians to send in thousands of ground troops?
Laughable.
Iran should put 100,000 men to use in Syria and the war will end in 6 weeks.
I have never been a fan of Tehran. I think the worship of them as some antidote to the Hegemon is delusional. It’s like Chavez was thought to be a Castro. He was a spendthrift who pissed away billions and left hell behind.
The Iranians have very heroic ally in Syria, a superpower military in Russia in the battle space, Hezbollah fighting heroically day and night, and they dither to join in scale what they should have done in Oct. until March.
A joke of a military so far.
As for the theme of this article, Obama wants to humiliate Putin. He will use Syria. He sent in the weapons to neutralize the Helos. He finally got one today. Two dead Russians, too.
Obama will also use Porky and the Ukies to start something that forces more sanction extensions on Russia. He’s even sending the USS Truman aircraft carrier to the taunt Crimean defenses.
Obama is the devil.
We pray for a lone assassin. America is in turmoil by his destruction of everything good. He is truly a satanic figure in domestic and international actions.
He is baiting China into some conflict. There is no end to his evil.
So, Syria is one of three major places of US vs. Russia. Ukraine and the Far East are others.
And the devil has only 7 months left to light the fuse.
Yes – how did a group of terrorists be able to take down a helicopter – where did these weapins come from? I read a while ago that the Iranians were pushing the Raqqa move against the Russian suggestion of focusing on Alleppo. It seems Alleppo is under fire again:
http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160710/1042719636/syria-aleppo-hypocrisy.html
A couple of interesting things in the news:
http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2016/07/09/474412/nato-awacs-daesh-syria-iraq
NATO announces AWACS deployment for anti-Daesh coalition.
http://tass.ru/en/world/887259
Ukrainian military 585 times during one day open fire on DPR territory
and what’s going on in Abkhazia? Seems to have been a few things brewing there
http://tass.ru/en/world/887293
And the childish, impotent Obama and his cronies carry on throwing their toys out of the pram with the Olympics
http://tass.ru/en/sport/887306
The irony of this Olympic political move is it clearly shows all the IAAF are interested in is making sure Russian athletes don’t compete under their flag – it is now clear to everyone…..pathetic.If they can’t win elsewhere use sport………
The icing on the delusional cake of this man is
http://sputniknews.com/us/20160710/1042717035/obama-wars-legacy.html
“US President Barack Obama told journalists at a press-conference following NATO summit in Warsaw that the US has engaged in “almost no wars between great powers” under his administration calling that a legacy he is proud of……”
Under his leadership the world has become a very dangerous place where the world is teetering on a possible nuclear war.
Great summary, Veritas. How could Scott abandon us at a time like this?? :-)
Canada is supplying:
1) a new BFF to the Latvian President (Trudeau – he’s seems very good at this)
2) 450 troops + Cdn Commander who will arrange for partners to supply the rest of the troops
3) up to six CF-18’s to conduct “periodic surveillance and air policing activities in Europe”
4) a frigate, to undertake ” operational tasks with NATO’s maritime forces in the region.”
… Does anyone want to translate/ analyse this? What does this mean?
Retribution or cover?
ISIS’ recent attacks do a good job of distancing certain countries from ISIS: USA, Jordan, Turkey.
It was rather inconvenient ‘optics’ last year when a Russian passenger plane was downed only weeks after Russian intervention while USA had not been attacked after over a year of supposed bombing and a $500m program to train an anti-ISIS force.
To complete the thought: could this be a(nother) sign of impending escalation?
So russia is basically betraying assad on whose request rusdia is in syria in the first place but has no qualm about inviting americans to help her in fighting against american created daesh
The most recent John Batchelor & Emeritus Professor Stephen Cohen weekly podcast had Cohen say that a source he trusts says Obama is isolated in the US. That Obama actually does want Daesh defeated and also wants the New Cold War with Russia wound down. But he cannot get support within his own administration.
Obama has been an enigma. The rhetoric for change and peace and tackling Wall Street that accompanied his first election campaign seemed genuine at the time. For me, like millions, it was inspiring. Hence the almost complete disillusionment since.
I vacillate between wondering if Obama is an agent of the Deep State, a Bilderberger appointee to fool the masses, whilst fascist corporate control of the USA and world (via TTIP, TPP, TSA and new regime change wars in Libya, Syria and Ukraine were unleashed, Yemen destroyed, Honduras subjected to a classic US sponsored coup and similar softer interventions in Argentina and Brazil).
Or has Obama been a brake on an out of control freight train? He did do the deal with Russia to stop all out US-NATO bombardment of sovereign Syria. He did cooperate with the Iranian nuclear negotiations, he seems to have seriously upset Netanyahu in criticising continued takeover of Palestinian territory). He tried to get Americans covered in the basic human right of affordable health care (Obamacare is a bit of a mess because of the hijacking via numerous amendments by the powerful private insurers who had 6 lobbyists for every member of Congress).
Is Obama a well meaning man overwhelmed by the Neocons and corporate fascists arrayed against him? Was he reminded soon after his inauguration what a president must do to avoid JFK’s fate? Or was he disingenuos in his campaign rhetoric, a psyop of the Deep State?
Is Trump another fake candidate? Or is he just an egotistical very rich man? But the rumour that he may appoint General Michael Flynn (one of the few voices of sanity in the US) as VP running mate is at least positive.
We all know Hilary Clinton serves her many corporate masters, as well as her donors in the Israelis and Saudis. She has no respect for law. If Trump is narcissistic and unpredictable, Clinton appears to be more narcissistic and predictably so.
So as Prof Cohen said, Putin has to act quickly while Obama is still in the White House. Better the devil (or lame duck) you know…
Yeah, but is just as likely its a trick. Ask yourself, if Obama wanted a resolution why is he giving antiaircraft missiles to ISIS? The guy has allied himself with nazis and cannibals.
The classic pitch of every grifter: “act now! Time is running out”
I also wonder about Obama but at the end of the day he is the one who lets it happen. He is the one who commissions and signs the executive orders
He is the one who fired Chuck Hagel
He is the one who let Michael Flynn get driven out.
They were both good men. You will notice that none of the scumbags in his admin were shown the door.
You will notice there is zero accountability in his admin…The White House is now officially evil, it’s worse than when bush was in there.
Frankly. I suspect this simply represents the lack of control over the American apparatus by any POTUS. The neo-cons are embedded in the Pentagon, the CIA, the NSA, the government.
Barack Obama, I believe, came into his position with the best of intentions, but soon learned it was impossible to change the course. There are too many black-budget projects previously approved to stop.
If he had any real balls, he would have removed the ‘State of Emergency’ powers that allows all those extra-judicial programs that are denied Congressional oversight. Which have been constant ever since WW2, except for a brief period under President Carter (who started the Mujahadeen project in Afghanistan under Zbigniew Brzezinski’s convincing). Unlikely at best, since the ‘War against Terrorism’ started, yet again another unwinnable war, like the ‘War on Drugs’.
Even Zbigniew Brzezinski said ‘Terror’ was just a tactic, not something like a country that could simply be stomped on by sheer use of force.
But Barack copped out. Went with the flow. Drones (extra-judicial murder). Limp-wristed acceptance of CIA and Defence Department projects to over-throw a sovereign government, completely illegal, of course. But that is exactly why the US authorities declare themselves exceptional and indispensable. They reserve for themselves the right to ignore international law.
If there is any justice, one day this will bounce back at them.
NB: latest Batchelor – Cohen podcast:
https://audioboom.com/boos/4786711-cold-war-never-ended-on-the-eve-of-nato-stephen-f-cohen-nyu-princeton-university-eastwestaccord-com
First off, never mind what obummer and Putin talk about, much less agree on: the USG simply cannot be trusted. That is Rule #1. Especially with biden in the dark shadows.
Secondly, the american Establishment is made up of a spectrum of people, ranging from the stupid, to the arrogant, to the downright evil. Eternal vigilance, distrust, and power is needed as the counter built on the solid ground of being morally right.
Allied to this is the gap between now and a new President. If hitlery were to get in – and I think she will not – all bets would be off. Assuming Trump wins, there would be the need to continue to distrust the USG, such is its very bad reputation, and take tentative and small steps and see whether that works out, and well and good if it does (here’s hoping…).
The spirits of the ancestors of a lot of American Indians would say that the Great White Chief in Washington speaks with forked tongue and can never be trusted to keep an agreement. Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was.
I think the whole Dvornikov think has been over-blown. Sounds to me like the man got a well-earned promotion. Everyone says he’s performed well in Syria, and that operation certainly seemed to be well-planned and well-execution which usually means a commander has indeed been doing well. He earned a promotion, and got it.
And, its a fact of military life that before one takes on a new command they must be relieved from duty at their previous command.
The Syria operation has moved past the early stages. The skills of the leader who could fore-see and plan and execute such a mission are not so mandatory right now. The next leader gets a chance to move in while the operation is in a bit of a steady-state. Doesn’t mean it will stay that way.
But it does make it a good time to change up your leadership. Dvornikov can take over Southern District and a new commander can move into Syria.
Also, its a part of a much larger pattern. It seems like Mr. Putin is replacing a large number of his commanders and making new assignments. Which in turn sounds like a large beauracratic process has been rolling along for some time, making assesments of current commanders and recommending who goes where in the shake-up. That didn’t happen over a glass of vodka at midnight, but it is something that a team of people has been working on for months.
Dvornikov is just one of these many changes. Which probably means he got the eye of higher ups during the first few months of the operation in Syria, and is only now seeing the results as he gets one of many new appointments.
Two quick points. The Saker has pointed out in the past, and I feel quite correctly, that the Russian force in Syria is a rather small one. The arrival of the Kuznetsov doesn’t change that.
I’d guess its mostly there for air-defense. Seems like the Moskva cruiser was there for that purpose before. The small number of planes might add to the cost of a US/NATO fight directly in Syria, but it wouldn’t change the outcome. The carrier-based planes might have an alternative place to operate from in the case of a terrorist strike on Latika on the coast. But, I’d guess the main reason the Kuznetsov is there is for its AA missile capacity.
It might well be the ship the Russians feel they can most afford to lose stuck out there by itself if this does turn into a hot, shooting war — but which still provides capacities they want in the region.
BTW, I’ve always felt the whole deal about the French-built helicopter/marines carriers was about Syria and not letting the Russians use those ships to project power. Kuznetsov might be the closest thing to filling that role now that the Russians don’t have those ships?
And in general, picking a lull before a storm to change and rearrange your commanders is a wise policy.
The myriad intrigue in Syria can seem complicated, but there are only two sides; the side that wants to keep Syria a whole sovereign state and the side that wants to break it apart and destroy it.
“The political logic of a US pre-election period would suggest that US-generated conflicts such as the ones in the Ukraine and the one in Syria should remain limited to minor moves until the new administration gets elected and takes over. This might still happen in Syria, but a lot of signs are beginning to point to a possible acceleration of events on the ground.”
In the past I believe americans would slow down their mercenary war mongering during the change over to a new figurehead. This to ease the changing of the guard as old staff are replaced by new staff. But recently the differences between the quislings has been so mininimal (in reality, not the soap opera promoted by the zio-gay media), such a reorganizing time out may not be needed any more.
Both the zionazi assault on Syria and the Ukraine are being heated up, along with a whole slew of soft war making on other countries the zpc/nwo have lost influence in. And we don’t know yet their other ops which are in the works now. My guess is there will be a steady accelleration of zionazi aggressive ops. Given their psychopathic supremacist mental deficiencies, the sods have no choice.
Great analysis; there’s much to absorb.
The SAA thrust at Raqqa seems to have been diversionary and exploratory; the real action was Aleppo and further securing Palmyra.
The Kurds at Manbij would have appreciated the diversion most. The SAA retreated so rapidly and in good order, it can’t have been a real defeat at the hands of DAESH but a planned provocation.
Given that Manbij hasn’t fallen yet despite American air cover, its clear that Raqqa is too big for either the available SAA or entire NDF at this time. Plus, the great dams before the city have to be secured first. There’s no real race to Raqqa in retrospect.
The Kuznetsov is an amazing little carrier. The only real weakness is the lack of catapults; fighters have only the ramp for take-off which limits their flexibility at the design level. Syria will give the Russians excellent live-fire training in carrier strike group operations that will surely inform the next generation of Russian carriers.
There’s just no way to explain Erdogan’s behavior…
Ramps do more than limit the takeoffs, they limit the bomb loads. The ramp concept is used for fighter jets. It works against bombers.
That is why catapults and a flat carrier is used by non-Soviet navies. It was a stupid concept.
The Liaoning a Ukraine built, Chinese carrier has very little capacity to be a true war-making platform.
I don’t yet know what their next carrier will be, but if it’s ramp, it’s stupid. You need catapults to lift the bombs weight or your jets are half their value. Fighter jets control airspace. Bombers support the ground war. Without bombs, the jets are fairly useless.
I have seen some 3D artwork showing flat double hull, massive carrier concept. If they build it, it will be enormous, like an airport on the water.
So the Russian ship is very limited for projecting power. It is a base of operations that is easy to defend in the Mediterranean. That’s it’s value. Another platform to add muscle to Russian presence and action. it can be moved to offshore Libya-Egypt later, if the war shifts to N.Africa.
As there is no mention of the “peace talks”and even in the media no confirmation seemingly of any progress shall we presume these are on hold, or terminated, doomed or there might be some optimism as they are under the aegis of the UN , but could stumble on for centuries, unless Assad does regain total control of the sovereignty of his vountry, I wonder at what point the moderate opposition and sponsors saudi quatar etc might walk away?
Also, the kurds are to be appreciated ,for their efforts against daesh we admire their determination eg female fighters but how should their strife with Turkey be settled, but how strong is their cause and chance of settlement over recent decades, should that be a point of focus now? I have been reafing Colin Thubrons “Shadow of the silk road” and
Most people here wish for Syria to remain whole but is there a just cause for Kurdish actions against Turkey?
Would I be correct in thinking that Kudish actions over last few decades are the elephant in the room? USA seems keen to use them especially against daesh and probably? against Syria and or Assad, does a point come when Turkey really says to USA either stop or help us to stop the kurds being troublesome in Turkey, or how does that situation affect usa-Turkish relations I cannot even take a guess at.O r should rus step into kurdish matters, or is that even possible as Syrian talks seem to be an example where best intentions grind to a halt.
I am not sure how much Rus can break apart Turkish-Ukraine relationships and their mutual support(considering the potential nato and eu “connections-aspirations”, or make it plain to Turkey step too far there could be consequences…….if too any extant there can be “trust” between turkey and Russia, that the USA might even permit or wish to denigrate or take advantage of against Russia.
Gosh, its getting very complicated for me to understand, but good to have straightforward clarity from Saker and colleagues here.
“Topping the Russian agenda is the objective to get Turkey to *really* close the Turkish-Syrian border and to stop financing Daesh by shutting down the illegal trade in oil.”
The latter aspect was one of the reasons behind the eariler South Stream proposal, effectively saying to Turkey, you can make as much money legally via South Stream, so let’s deal. Erdogan was full of hubris then, so he tried the ‘play both sides’ schtick. Eventually Russia pulled out at the end of 2014 and planned the Syria operation implemented in late 2015. Now there is a replay, with the message to Turkey that their ISIS funding is drying up and will disappear, so stop being dickheads and get in on the real long-term viable action. It may be enough for less egomanical Turks to sort out Erdogan.
I don’t see any thing concrete from Turkish or American side. Mr. Erdogan sent a regret letter – there was no mention of Turkish responsibility. Americans want dealing with Russians – but they want Russian to approach them. So, frankly, nothing has changed on the ground. If Russians think they are being given importance because Turkey/US want to mend ties – they are mistaken. Turkey is on verge of economic turmoil and US realises Syria/Iraq is proving yet another fiasco. Both need some one else to bail them out and/or take blame in case of failure. Who better than Russians for this task.
I have immense respect for Russia (USSR in past) for their role in maintaining multi-polarity in world (and for the fact that they stood steadfastly with India, since I am an India, during their need). But I have never understood their craze to be accepted by “West”. Even now if given a chance, Russia will forget all insults and backstabbing to join “West” and “Europe”. The press articles in Russian media (including RT and Sputnik) is filled with how much EU/NATO needs Russia – any person half-educated in world affairs know this. Why you need to keep reiterating this? Why this craze to be counted as “White”? I really don’t get it.
Its about strategy. The US cannot attack Russia without the support of its allies in Europe. So Russia is wooing Europe, and if that doesn’t work just causing doubt and uncertainty in European minds is enough. WW3 is thus being delayed or derailed. While it is a good strategy, such demeaning groveling is sickening to observe. Still, it is preventing WW3 from happening.
So, in summary, its either strategy or Russia is suffering from some weird inferiority complex with regards to their highly esteemed European brethren. Time will tell.
Strategy. WWIII would not be a just war according to christian dogma – only defending Russia itself or one of its close allies is a just war. Thus, Putin bombs IS in Syria in help of his ally Assad but does not take a first step to WW III in spite of provocations.
The Russian helicopter shot down with 2 Russian pilots killed,needs a definitive response. It would seem to me the answer would be for Russia to announce that when these happen they will look at the weaponry used in the attack. And if as suspected it is Western (US) demand an accounting on how the terrorists got a hold of that “particular” weapon. If no accounting is given then it will be counted as an attack by the weapon supplying country on the RF. And a retaliation will be ordered on that nations military.The reason the West “believes” (rightly so far) that they can get away with supplying arms to terrorists is because they are not punished for it.If they lived in fear of retaliation they would be “very” reluctant to supply terrorists.If the terrorists use US supplied weapons against the RF military,take down a US military target in Syria or Iraq. And past the word if it happens again, another US target will be taken down.Until the message is understood clearly to never do it again.With the West you play hardball,or don’t bother to play at all. They don’t understand anything but that.
Uncle Bob 1, a couple of questions for you:
1. So that I can better understand exactly what you are saying here, would you please define what you would consider a “U.S.military target in Syria or Iraq”?
2. Do you consider what the results may be of such a “hardball” action, in the very-likely case that no “acceptable” accounting for the attack weapon [used by Daesh (takfiri) or enemy mercenaries] would be forthcoming?
Thanks, G’ma
I think its obvious to my meaning on a US military target. It means a target manned by the US military. One of the planes,or a Special Forces unit operating illegally in Syria most likely. We don’t know the response. Would they get smart as during the Cold War and think,”Geez,if we kill some of them they’ll kill some of us. So we need to not do that anymore”. Or would they push further. No one knows. But one think we can be “almost certain” about. If no strong response is given, they will continue to do that,you can bet on that ,its just their MO. And after all these years I’d think that should be figured out by now.
Bob, the fact that what you suggest DOESN’T happen is one of the reasons I respect Russia. It’s almost as if the desire is for Russia to behave like an American would. And so the provocations go on, and Russia doesn’t respond the way the provocateur wishes. Kind of cool to watch, actually.
Very likely the New Syrian Army and its attack on Bukamal was the US strategy for Raqqa. Now one has to wait whether they will try again or that they will try something different.
2 Daesh stories today 10th:
Pentagram pleads poverty:
http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/07/10/474545/Daesh-Pentagon-Iraq-Syria-JIDO
The Pentagon has told Congress that its needs at least $20 million on top of its current budget to counter the threat rising from the Daesh (ISIL) Takfiri group’s reconnaissance and bomber drones.
Daesh is in possession of drones that can carry improvised explosive devices (IED) and are capable of performing surveillance missions, the Defense News reported Saturday, citing Joint Improvised-Threat Defeat Organization (JIDO) spokesman David Small.
http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/07/10/474535/Daesh-IHS-Syria-Iraq
The Daesh Takfiri terrorist group has lost 12 percent of the territory it already held in Syria and Iraq in the first half of 2016, a British think tank says.
According to a report released by the IHS Conflict Monitor on Sunday, the territories under the control of Daesh, which started its reign of terror in Iraq and Syria in 2014, are increasingly shrinking due to a string of setbacks it suffered last year and in the past months.
Greetings all,
Regarding Ego-gan. A sincere apology is presented right after the event, not eight months later.
Exactly. This groveling from Russia is pathetic. The Russian authorities need to know how to keep their foot down and actually stand by their statements and their stance. Sad thing is, I don’t think Russian’s themselves even care about the dead pilot or the shootdown of the jet. Many Russians are living in a weird fantasy land about greatness in the west and I think even current authorities, Putin included, falls for it. If Turkey gave an apology day after, fine. But as you said, it is 8 months later and finally gave one. Well, Russia should then wait 8 months + to finally forgive. But they forgave far too early and this is something that does not work well in politics, because both Turkey and US will see this as weakness and will then try to go for more. Maybe even make another shootdown of a Russian jet to see what the response is.
I think the Russians are having a bit of fun with Erdogan as Obama hits his last 6 in power. Just how mad is Kilary and how much is Trump a puppet?
The biggest control on Washington’s mad men and women is that US ships and planes can’t lock onto Russian planes and ships. Has Russia given this tech to China?
We’re in the midst of a growing faction war.The pot is beginning to boil.For news,it’s either MSN/most alt. news sites.Try these links if you want to break free of the sheep herd.Comments are very informative.Warning,research is not an option ;-) .( http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/07/05/no-hillary-prosecution-of-course/ ) + ( http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/07/06/dot-connecting-and-over-interneting-is-a-trap/ ) + ( http://www.veteranstoday.com/2016/07/08/police-murder-video-graphic-consider-not-watching/ )
There is still a plenty of time till election for intentional FUBAR by the current admin.
Actually the thaw between Moscow and Ankara is far less surprising than most people think. Having lost his game in Syria, with the US openly cooperating with his Kurdish enemies, and snubbed by the EU, Erdogan had little choice if he wanted to enhance his strategic position.
‘Maximising their options’ is surely what any side in a conflict has to try, so reading the Russian actions this way makes sense. However I don’t see this as necessarily heralding any imminent changes, even if Turkey finally seems to have picked its side which will make the jihadists’ position in northern Syria untenable.
Steady now…nobody benefits if a major player suddenly loses face on the international scene.
Obama is desperately trying to reolve the Syrian issue because he knows that when Hillary takes office she’ll escalate it if it’s not already resolved.