Russian peacekeepers are deploying to Nagorno-Karabakh after a permanent ceasefire was established in the region at 00:00 local time on November 10. 1,970 troops, 90 armored personnel carriers and 380 units of other equipment are set to be deployed in the region. The core of the peacekeeping contingent will be units of the 15th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade.
According to the statement signed by President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan and President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijani and Armenian forces halt their operations and keep the positions that they currently control. The sides also agreed on exchange of prisoners of war.
Additionally, Baku and Yerevan agreed on the following steps:
– Armenia should return control of the Kalbajar district to Azerbaijan by November 15, and the Lachin district by December 1, 2020. The 5km-wide Lachin corridor will be kept to ensure the connection of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia. The town of Shusha remains in the hands of Azerbaijan. In addition, by November 20, Armenia should return control of the Agdam district and a part of the Gazakh district to Azerbaijan.
– Russian peacekeepers are deployed for the period of five years with an automatic renewal for an additional five-year period, if none of the parties to the agreement decides to withdraw from it.
– A peacekeeping center will be created to monitor the ceasefire and the implementation of the agreements.
– In the next three years, the sides will agree on a plan for the construction of a new traffic route between Stepanakert and Armenia along the Lachin corridor. When the route is created, the Russian peacekeeping contingent will be re-deployed to protect it.
– Internally displaced persons and refugees will return to Nagorno-Karabakh and the surrounding areas under the supervision of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.
– All economic and transport links in the region will be unblocked. Armenia will take steps to provide transport links between the Azerbaijani mainland and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. This will be overseen and secured by Russian border guards. It is planned to ensure the construction of new transport communications for this purpose.
Azerbaijani President Aliyev also stated that the Turkish side would participate in the peacekeeping mission. Likely, the Turks will be involved in the peacekeeping center.
It should be noted that the ceasefire deal was officially announced late on November 9, just a few hours after Azerbaijan shot down a Russian Mi-24 helicopter, which was escorting a convoy of forces of the 102nd Russian military base near the village of Eraskh inside Armenia. The foreign ministry as well as the top military and political leadership of Azerbaijan, including the president and defense minister, immediately admitted the incident offering their apologies and proposing compensation to the Russian side. According to Baku, the helicopter was shot down by mistake in a time of tension and Armenian provocations. Open military conflicts always set conditions for various incidents involving forces deployed even in a relatively close proximity to the combat zone. The unprecedentedly rapid and straight reaction of Azerbaijan demonstrates that Baku was not interested in an escalation with Russia. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan saw Armenia as a direct participant of the Nagorno-Karabakh war despite attempts of the Armenian leadership to pretend that Azerbaijan was in a war with forces of the self-proclaimed Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh Republic only.
On the other hand, the location of the village of Eraskh is far from the actual combat zone. Therefore, there is a small possibility that this was a Turkish-instigated provocation/demonstration of force that should somehow warn and deter Russia from intervening into the Karabakh war on the side of Armenia.
This may be compared with the Turkish posture in Syria, when its warplane shot down a Russian Su-24 warplane in the first months of the Russian military operation there in 2015. Nonetheless, it should be noted that this Turkish demonstration led to little results and the Russian operation there turned the tide of the war to the favor of the allied government of Bashar al-Assad.
Expectedly, the November 10 peace led to a deep political crisis in Armenia, with chaos in the parliament and the strengthening of calls to dismiss Pashinyan from his post. In its own turn, the Pashinyan group fiercely resists this scenario pretending that it was not responsible for the loss in the war. In fact, the outcome of the current Nagorno-Karabakh war was inevitable taking into account the foreign and internal policy posture of Soros-linked Prime Minister Pashinyan and his inner circle that seized power as a result of the coup in 2018. SouthFront in detail forecasted the war in Nagorno-Karabakh and its outcome in its analysis “Crisis in Armenia and Balance of Power in South Caucasus” released in June 2018.
Currently, the pro-Western Armenian elites will try to keep their power justifying the Karabakh defeat by some “insurmountable obstacles” and the lack of support from Russia. Pro-Western Armenian media has already started blaming Russia for the alleged betrayal. If the Pashinyan clique somehow remains in power and succeeds in promoting its agenda, the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from the conflict zone and the full loss of Karabkah for the Armenians will become inevitable within the next 5 years.
What now is that Armenians need to jettison the New World Order and become good friends with their actual neighbors, Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, especially in light of the New Silk Road and Asian Landmass Economic Integration.
It’s a pity that God and family loving Armenia let the Devil into their home based on wanting to be deceived and greed.
What now? This about sums it up:
“The Nagorno-Karabakh peace deal amounts to a triumph of Russian diplomacy, miraculously turning a lose-lose mess into win-win. The key
now will be to make it stick, as Armenia licks its wounds and a triumphant Azerbaijan gloats.”
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“In short, Moscow has good reason to be happy with Monday’s agreement, but one should not imagine that everyone can now sit back and relax. Assuming that the ceasefire sticks for now, Armenia has five years to negotiate a settlement with Azerbaijan. Russia has some tough diplomacy ahead to try and make that happen.”
https://www.rt.com/russia/506324-nagorno-karabakh-battlefield-victory/
In the long run, Armenia did not have a chance to win. And Azerbaijan would NEVER give up.
Bolshevik idiots created such a teritorrial division, so called international law was on the Azeri side, collapse of USSR happened … bad luck for Armenians and N. Karabakh.
Armenians and Azeris can not live together. Unfortunatelly, exodus of Armenian people from NK is inevitable.
Their hatred is something hard to compare with anything in the world.
In ex Yugoslavia animosity exist but Serbs, Croats, Bosniaks and others communicate more or less normally and if politicians and media (and unfortunatelly clergy from all three main religions) do not create tensions I think that we would get full reconciliation and normalization without significant problems …OK, wounds remain, but we can somehow learn to live wirh that
But it is not possible between Armenians and Azeris …no way
I tend to agree with you…the agreement will have to go on for decades like presence of peacekeepers inTransnystria maybe( after all the OSCE overseeing Arm and Azer situation for decades was clearly not sufficient in todays political world of tensions and stresses)….seeing that the OSCE has been kind of firmly rejected by Russia in the “settlement” in any role-????-( there seems to be no active participation unless it will via the co-chairs just rubber stamp it)….can the CIS organisation be persuaded take a leading part in bringing a greater peace and some kind of reconciliation and stronger more long lasting? Is there any knock on effect to the 4 countries within the Commonwealth of Unrecognised States…which includes Artsak…South Ossetia…Transnystria….Abkhazia…….could CIS help sort out these situations too…..one wonders. Feels like there is a need to establish a more consolidated and basis and direction for all of these how vulnerable are they….bit if trouble in Moldovan elections now for example?
Russians will not stay that long time in NK. I think that people will leave NK because they do not want to live under Azeri rule and also there is not future for young Armenians in NK.
Not any more.
In sever a l years NK will be almost empty zone and no point for Russians to be there.
And Russians will leave from there.
Also, agreement is 5 years and if one side in conflict do not agree, peacekeeping mission will cease
My first thought is sadly this is the end of an ancient community. The armenians no longer have a sustainable future in the caucasus.
But on a bigger scale this is the end of Russia in the caucasus. Historians will mark this as the turning point. Russia will retreat further after this, perhaps Dagestan next.
Even worse the image of russia is that it is impotent, weak, and unreliable. It is unbelievable that they surrendered to turkish interests and got nothing in return. This is the greatest strategic blunder in decades.
While Russia is deploying its peacekeepers, Turkey didn’t have to, as its presence was already there, along with its F-16s and untold numbers of Syrian jihadists..
The Caucasus now has a new permanent “partner” in the Club..
Armenians in Nagorno karabakh should sit down and stay
It is hard probably now to think of this but – don’t give up the land – you can still negotiate and elect your own people to Local government etc
– you can still live as Armenian people with your culture and history
I agree that if Armenia keep Pashyan they are finished as a people in the Caucasus
If they blame Russia – why keep the base?
Next Turkey will finish them off
Aliyev should also not get too big headed
Beating a little poor country took weeks with Turkey Israel and jihadis !!!
Azerbaijan also needs to remember pride goes before the fall
Turkey is the real enemy – who was it that said never to trust them.
What I find interesting about Turkey is despite all its rhetoric about Palestinians and Islam – it’s foreign policy always aligns with Israel they share a lot of the same interests. They even sold them stolen Syrian oil. They are on the same side in Syria in Azerbaijan
Both are Russia’s enemies
Seemingly, everyone came out of this staged conflict with something. NATO-Turkey now has a path to the Caspian Sea. The Azerbaijanis got to feel like they are fearsome and strong, like the Turkic warriors of old. The Armenians can rest assured for the moment that they are on the good side of global Zionism. Russia gets a gas pipeline through Turkey, while also getting to act like they are still relevant in the Caucasus. And the Iranians received a firsthand demonstration of the power of global Zionism, and a message: “everyone is working together, against you.”
No one walked away empty-handed. One big happy global Zionist family.
Turkey blocked an Iranian-iraqi-syrian pipeline by occupying (via proxy) Idlib. To unblock it, turkey demanded to become a stakeholders (via proxy) in the Caspian sea.
Iran, Russia agreed to those conditions.
Everybody got something, and had to give up something. Even Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Next, if turkey is agreement-capable, Idlib will be liberated soon, Very soon.
Let’s wait and see.
Idlib is a very small province in the Northwest of Syria. How it is relevant to an Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline, which runs through Damascus to Lebanon?
Turkey does not have an independent foreign policy. Turkey’s actions in Artsakh have been NATO’s actions, just like in Idlib.
It is hard to imagine Turkey retreating in Syria. But it was also hard to imagine Russia allowing NATO to carve a path to the Caspian Sea, without putting up any resistance at all.
I am at a loss to understand why Iran would trade some irrelevant Syrian province in exchange for allowing NATO access to the Caspian Sea.
But I can understand Russia and Turkey striking such a bargain.
I stand by what I said. Everyone was a winner here, except Iran, and the people who had to die for this staged conflict.
Also, worthy of note in my opinion, is the fact that global Zionism, through their ziomedia, holds much more sway over public opinion in the Caucasus than Russia does. Russia can never hope to reverse the tide of Russophobia which is being unleashed against it, in my opinion.
Well, Iran was not involved in the N-K conflict directly so it shouldn’t expect to get anything but a demonstration.
Is everyone ganging up on Iran? Let’s get some perspective.
Iran has been at odds with Azerbaijan (the country) for a least 100 years, when the country came into being taking its name from Iranian Azerbaijan (the region in Iran). Coupled with the irredentist views of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Iran, understandably, fears a ‘pan-Azeri/Turkic’ sentiment amongst its citizens of Azeri descent, similar to that with the Kurds. The fact that Azerbaijan now hosts an Israeli outpost — and has for more than 20 years — is even the more galling for Iran, as the two countries are Shia. This doesn’t mean they’re enemies of course; Iran supplies all the energy needs of Azerbaijan’s enclave of Nakhchivan.
Iran has a better relationship — trade, political, energy — with Armenia, a Christian Orthodox country, than with its Shia brethren in Azerbaijan. This shows that Iran, for all its Islamic rhetoric, is pragmatic, and places economic ties over religious ones in its foreign policy. At any rate I place very little store in the notion of ‘religious divide’ or of the so-called ‘sectarian divide’ in political Islam. The sectarian divide is artificial, mostly generated in the West and mostly put into practice by zionist Arab regimes — and ignorant Muslims such as the bogus jihadis in Syria are falling for it. If only they knew their religion and their history a bit better — Wahhabi Saudi had no problems supporting the Shia Yemeni Imamate when pan-Arabist Nasser decided to interfere in North Yemen in the 60’s. The Wahhabis were more interested in preserving the monarchial system than protecting ‘pure’ (read Wahhabi) Islam. Nasser had threatened to ‘republicanise’ the whole of the Arab world. The petty tribal leaders — they still are — of the Arab states obviously wouldn’t stand for that.
Iran also has a long history with Turkey. Sometimes there was cooperation, sometimes conflict. They are competitors but since both are middle powers their competition is limited to the region. Both want to increase their influence in the South Caucasus but Iran’s options are somewhat limited compared to Turkey’s. Being pragmatists, they maintain an amicable working relationship.
But undoubtedly, both stand in the shadow of the great power in the region, Russia. Middle powers can only compete with great powers at the regional level and not globally. Iran’s options in the region are limited by its dependency on Russian protection in the UNSC. Russia has no objections to Iran developing deep relations with Armenia or Azerbaijan but Georgia may be a different matter.
So at the moment as far as the South Caucasus goes, Iran is keeping a low-profile, cautious and balanced approach. We could see it in its inaction during the active phase of the N-K conflict.
For a little levity, here`s Zakharova`s response to interest from the US Dept of State in learning more about the peace agreement.
https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1326434697518456833
“That`s what diplomatic channels are for.`”
Additional info provided in this analysis:
Nagorno-Karabakh peace: Battlefield victory for Azerbaijan, diplomatic win for Russia; Armenia saved from catastrophic defeat
https://www.rt.com/russia/506324-nagorno-karabakh-battlefield-victory/
“While certainly not catastrophic, the implications of this victory could hardly have been called positive for Russian foreign policy. In the first place, it undermined Russia’s credibility as an ally. And secondly, it threatened to create a dangerous example for other countries in Russia’s near abroad with breakaway regions, such as Georgia and Ukraine. Such an Azeri precedent could perhaps encourage others in the belief that their own problems could similarly be solved by military means.
Allowing Armenia to be completely defeated was not therefore in Russia’s interests. But Russia also has no interest in having poor relations with Azerbaijan, let alone going to war with it. Coming directly to Armenia’s assistance was not, therefore, an option. Even acting as a mediator seemed unlikely to succeed, given that Azerbaijan had no obvious need of mediation. It seemed that Russia was stuck in a lose-lose situation.
And then, out of the blue, on Monday evening, everything changed. Russian president Vladimir Putin announced that he had reached an agreement with his Azeri counterpart Ilham Aliyev and with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to bring the war to an end. Why the Armenians agreed is clear – their military situation left them little choice. Why the Azeris agreed is less obvious, given that they could probably have gained even more by continuing fighting. But the terms are sufficiently advantageous that it seems likely that they viewed them as too good to pass up.”
Meanwhile:
Live Updates: Some 130 People Arrested in Yerevan Amid Protests Against Ceasefire Deal With Baku
https://sputniknews.com/world/202011111081124260-Live-Updates-Some-130-People-Arrested-in-Yerevan-Amid-Protests-Against-Ceasefire-Deal-With-Baku/
The zionazis and their nazi/fascist little bros will be working overtime to sabotage any cessation of the hostilities.
Oh….any consequences for Azer. using phosphorous…cluster bombs and missiles on civilian areas???
But Armenia must pay when N-K attacked
BAKU, November 11. /TASS/. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has announced that Baku will engage international experts to assess damage caused to territories in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh that were handed over to Azerbaijan and will demand compensations through international court. “All moral and material damage and all destructions will be accounted, we will go to international court,” Azerbaijan State News Agency quoted Aliyev as saying at a meeting with military personnel Wednesday. He added that Armenia “will pay compensations.” “99% of buildings are destroyed in the liberated territories, residential buildings, schools, hospitals, public buildings, historical monuments, tombs of our ancestors and mosques,” Aliyev said, slamming the destructions as “vandalism and a military crime.”
https://southfront.org/maps-detailing-russias-observation-posts-and-peacekeeping-patrols-in-nagorno-karabakh-released/
The ceasefire was likely agreed to prior to the helicopter shoot down-
Considering Shusha/i was retrieved by Azerbaijan Nov.5 and fully controlled on November 7/20
The Armenians can blame Russia all they want- They can make a plausibe case for that, but, it’s irrelevant.
The fault lies 100 percent with Armenia- They could have settled this, under Pashinian, in 2018.
Pashinian rebuffed Russia’s Lavrov. Undoubtedly Pashinian was egged on by France and the US.
The Armenians choose to “poop in their nest” instead of getting along with their neighbours
There is little to no chance the firing on the Russian helicopter was “instigated” in any way by Turkey.
That’s the stuff of rubbish, because there is absolutely no reason to think it so.
Turkey has a deal for peace keeping. They had it prior to the shoot down. I don’t doubt that for a minute based on the time line.
Additionally, I had suggested this type of possible settlement for Nagarno Kharabak back when the 3rd ceasefire was faltering
“-Possible Outcomes?
1- Western Imperial Powers will Recognize “Artsakh” Talked about this here previously. This move will certainly set the region alight!
2- Turkey and Russia will send peace keepers in. The issue of territory will be settled once and for all. The same type of cooperation as we see in Syria. Iran may participate as well.
An Astana 2.0 if you like?”
Removed. No self promotion. Mod.
Had the Anglo’s got around to recognizing Artsakh… then we can be sure all heck would have broken loose
That’s exactly what they need to do. But will they? Or do to many Armenians have stars in their eyes (literally and figuratively) to see the folly of their own ways. Are they overly dazzled by all that glitters?
Surely there will be a russian investigation to check the Azer investigation re the helo. Eg tracking the source of the manpad.