Dear friends,
Many of you have asked for a SITREP on the situation in the Ukraine. I have forwarded the request to Juan and Gleb. I just came back home today and I don’t have the energy to make an analysis right now. Sorry. But I will say the following:
1) All the signs are that the Ukies have broken through several Resistance lines and that Donetsk is either surrounded or close to being surrounded.
2) The situation around Saur Mogila is very confused. From what I can tell the Resistance has lost the hill, but the Ukies have not taken it either. Both sides are shelling the hill.
At this point, I it too early to assess the situation. Yes, it looks bad, no doubt about it, but looks can be deceiving. For one thing, nobody in the Resistance side is in a panic or even disaster mode. The message I get it “the situation is serious but tenable”.
Here is what I wrote to a contact just a few hours ago:
What I don’t like is the fact that the Ukies are still in the offensive mode. They bleed, and they attack. They bleed again, and they attack again. Then they bleed some more, and they attack again. What if they suffer humongous casualties, and then win. Do you see what I fear? The resistance can do what the Germans did in WWII – win tactically, but loose operationally and then strategically. I am afraid that the resistance will “win its way to defeat”.
I am NOT saying that this is why is happening now. And at least one contact has replied to me “NO COLLAPSE. Everything is holding”.
We shall see.
Right now, I am going to hit the sack, sorry I am exhausted. If I get a SITREP tonight I will try to post it. If not, then tomorrow. Stay tuned.
The Saker
Back in 2011 Ukrainian nazis have already threatened to attack Donetsk because a court ruled that Bandera is no longer “Hero of Ukraine”. The nazi uprising was called “Maidan” back then, too. People were afraid that this could lead to a civil war.
“Yesterday near the monument to Bandera was a big rally. All Western Ukraine has risen. I’m afraid, as if all this has not led to civil war”
http://translate.yandex.net/tr-url/ru-en.en/www.segodnya.ua/politics/power/za-banderu-tjahnibokovtsy-hrozjat-forcirovat-dnepr-i-atakovat-donetsk.html
(BTW: I think this predictive article deserves a proper English translation. Also notice the “Articles on the theme”.)
Latest reports I’m seeing say Donetsk is NOT surrounded. Saker, please be careful posting what looks like Kiev disinformation.
It must be stressed, though, that there is no good outcome for Ukraine. It has suffered tremendous casualties to the regime’s military, although the true extent of the damage will not be known until the war is over, one way or another. There have been heavy casualties among the federalists as well, although both pale beside the numbers who have fled to Russia as refugees and will likely not return. The country has lost its biggest trading partner, its currency is in free-fall and it is on the brink of default. Its western benefactors do not have the money to rebuild it, especially considering half the money that was donated would be stolen. It is not unrealistic to imagine Ukraine will have lost better than a half-million people – and its population was already in marked decline. It has lost a tremendous amount of its tax-base in the east, without which the IMF dare not lend it huge amounts of money because there is virtually no hope of recovering it. The east’s cities are heavily damaged and have had their critical infrastructures deliberately ruined.
Every day of continued war just makes the damage that little bit worse.
According to some of the Serbs who passionately follow military situation in Donetsk region, Krasniy Luch iz freed from Ukrainian forces. It also appears that Saur Mogila lost some of its strategic importance once “South Cauldron” collapsed.
I do not believe that Russia is going to abandon Lugansk and Donetsk regions, ever, although it will keep it “warm” as so many Ukrainian/foreign troops keep disappearing there.
Regards, Spiral
As the North Vietnamese did against the U.S. Army, lost the battles but won the war. Not a good outcome that’s for sure, one I am sure that Strelkov and others are giving their all to prevent.
@Anonymous:Latest reports I’m seeing say Donetsk is NOT surrounded. Saker, please be careful posting what looks like Kiev disinformation..
Do you believe that the Prime Minister of the Donetsk People’s Republic is parroting Kiev disinformation? See for yourself:
http://ukraina.ru/news/20140809/1010118419.html
Besides, I wrote exactly this:Donetsk is either surrounded or close to being surrounded.
So what is your beef with what I wrote anyway?!
Cheers,
The Saker
The jig is up:
U.S. Airstrikes against IS in Iraq Part of War on Baghdad
http://nsnbc.me/2014/08/09/u-s-airstrikes-against-is-in-iraq-part-of-war-on-baghdad/
Everywhere the propaganda has suddenly turned hard on Christian killers ISIS. Obummer is talking tough and dealing death from the air. All very different from the Desert Storm Sagas but basically the same thing. If nothing else the Anglo-Zioinist media is flexible.
If Russia moves into Novorossia it will ease the path for a NATO re-invasion of Iraq — the beginings of which are already underway. The trick is to force Russia to move first. So far Putin has refused to oblige so now the Anglo-Zionists are moving directly to their primary target from the begining which was Iraq.
A sturdy pro Russian Shia corridor that can block all access to all Western pipelines is a nightmare of unimaginable proportions for the Anglo-Zionists. They have the hard power to block this and if push comes to shove they will use it. Also they’ll use it because basically they’re insane.
They’ve tried to make it clear to Putin but time and again he’s outwitted them and blocked their path. What Putin does now in Novorussia depends on how quickly the US escalates its intervention in Iraq. The primary obstacle to their plan to destroy Iraq appears to be the Maliki regime.
The Russian interest is clear: they must preserve Maliki and the state of Iraq. This means no Russian intervention in Novorussia unless Maliki is overthrown and/or Iraq is partitioned.
News are :
– Donetsk is encircled.
– Luhansk is in the way to be cut in two pockets : Krasnyi Luch has been taken by invaders.
-Strelkov mentionned Cossacks cowardly retreated without fighting.
Once Krasnyi Luch is fallen, road M03 can be cut at any time, meaning that the west part of Luhansk pocket will experience tremendous difficulties to receive support and supplies. A new cauldron could even be created.
It is obvious that Donetsk Republic can not hold the ground for a great deal of time. She can’t receive any supply. The question will be soon asked to Moscow if Donetsk forces will receive Russia’s support or not, and if not, will have to prepare for a breakthrough to Luhansk Republic. Provided this republic is not already split in two portions, in which case, the retreating Donetsk troops, if succeeding in reaching it, will be trapped in an other pocket.
The decision for an intervention has to be taken now, within 48 hours at most. But it is obvious that Putin is hesitating and, more, giving up on them. Too much empty talks, too much humanitarian whining. MFA spokesperson even mention that Russia needed a “bilateral” agreement for a humanitarian operation.
Can it sound more ridiculous ? Asking to Kiev, i.e. Washington, to have the permission for stopping the invasion that Yankees are precisely engineering ?
If Putin does not want to pick the fight, why did he gave his permission for the rebellion to act ? He has taken the decision, he’s morally obliged to rescue them. If not it will be a serious defeat for him, both morally and msychologically.
In Washington they will think : “It’s fine, next step, Belarus, Crimea, Moscow”.
“You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor and you will have war.”
I’m afraid this will turn from conventional war to guerrilla war. Many more people will die. Prayers for the innocents.
One indication of possible opportunities to blunt the threat was a remarkable proposal by Soviet ruler Joseph Stalin in 1952, offering to allow Germany to be unified with free elections on the condition that it would not then join a hostile military alliance. That was hardly an extreme condition in light of the history of the past half-century during which Germany alone had practically destroyed Russia twice, exacting a terrible toll.
Stalin’s proposal was taken seriously by the respected political commentator James Warburg, but otherwise mostly ignored or ridiculed at the time.
http://www.alternet.org/world/noam-chomsky-how-bin-laden-raid-could-have-led-nuclear-annihilation-humanity?paging=off¤t_page=1
Noam Chomsky: How the Bin Laden Raid Could Have Led to Nuclear Annihilation of Humanity
TomDispatch / By Noam Chomsky
http://www.alternet.org/world/noam-chomsky-how-bin-laden-raid-could-have-led-nuclear-annihilation-humanity?paging=off¤t_page=1
That article is a great read on why the US is doing what it is doing and has been doing since WW2 when it found out it was a superpower and the USSR was no match for it. The US is preparing for a first strike as it believe itself the indispensable nation and the world hegemon. When you say the US wants the resources of Russia, this explains most of the strategic moves made by the US. Sooner or later the US will be ready to make its move. They dont seem to care what damage it does to itself as long as no one else is around to challenge its capitalism and its corporations can make a killing on the killings.
Kiev Looks for Cannon Fodder
By Vladislav Gulevich
Moreover, the Ukrainian soldiers themselves lament the unbearable conditions they are forced to stay in: lack of ammunitions, lack of water, lack of clothes. Many of the soldiers are not recruits but mobilized fathers torn from their families. Those who ask too many questions are threatened by their commanders. The latter promise them criminal investigation and martial court
http://rickrozoff.wordpress.com/2014/08/08/kiev-looks-for-cannon-fodder/
NATO is desperate for war
By Pepe Escobar
With Fogh of War already fuming because “Russia won’t invade”, the pompously named “Secretary” of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, neo-Nazi Andrey Parubiy – who is the most likely candidate for having ordered the hit last month on the MH17 civilian aircraft – decided to step out; a certified rat abandoning a sinking ship move mostly provoked by the fact he did not get an extended ethnic cleansing overdrive in Eastern Ukraine, and had to endure a ceasefire. Poroshenko is not an idiot; after loads of bad PR, he knows his nationwide “support” is evaporating by the minute.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-01-080814.html
THE WEST ON THE WRONG PATH
By Gabor Steingart
This policy of running your head against the wall – and doing so exactly where the wall is the thickest – just gives you a head ache and not much else. And this considering that the wall has a huge door in the relationship of Europe to Russia. And the key to this door is labeled “reconciliation of interests“.
http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/2014/08/the-west-on-the-wrong-path.html
I cannot believe that anyone can be this incompetent. Could the complete failure occurring right now be intentional.
A few thrown out questions:
– Are they just throwing fodder while in the background training a real fighting army with up-to-date weaponry.
– Do they want to increase the hostility and the division of people within Ukraine.
– Are they just culling “useless feeders”
@Mark Chapman
I do not think NATO cares. What they can’t rule they must destroy. Look at Iraq, that’s what they call a good outcome. Oil keeps exporting and the people living in misery.
Going to be an interesting year. After all, Both china and Russia seems to get off their high horse and see things as they are.
SCO representing more than half the worlds population and a GDP to rival the EU or the US, it has the chance to blow past Nato.. With Bricks in the mix, it can become a powerful mix on the level of the UN. All this happened thanks to the US. If it were not for the US there would be no chance for china and India to do anything together, or to get Pakistan and India to do anything. Now you have Iran, Pakistan, India and China defending Russia’s far east.. Most likely isolating japan and australia. If Australia loses market it ends up as a nothing island and japan is in even worse shape. Korean unification is being blocked by the US and if they can get korea to go independent then both japan and Australia might rethink their places in the world. Unless the EU really start to rethink their policies and independence they will be left to scratch with the big dog with fleas. And would be carrying the nato bone all by itself. They sure wont be able to bully anyone anymore. After a decade of animosity between its members the US actually did what they themselves could not do. Put aside their petty differences and create an alternative power that is an order of magnitudes greater than Nato could ever hope to put up. Nato could ofcourse try to maintain parity but the cost would be tremendous. With declining access to the printing press trying to do a US would mean a dramatic decline in quality of living.
In 20 years SCO and Bricks would be the place to go instead of the UN and world bank.
http://www.rediff.com/news/column/modi-leads-india-to-the-silk-road/20140807.htm
Re Mark Chapman @ 10 August 01:31
The good outcomes for Ukraine and the rest of the world include but are not limited to:
1. Realisation of the costs of allying with US, NATO and EU.
2. Realisation of the costs of inaction/acquiesence.
3. Realisation of the role of the IMF in facilitating hegemony, and
how credit gives control to your lender.
4. Realisation of the roles and interests of the elites and oligarchs.
Infrastructures can be rebuilt with help from friends.
Obama’s Failing Wars. The Caribbean Front
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2014/08/08/obamas-failing-wars-the-caribbean-front.html
An article on the destabilization efforts of the Empire on Cuba and Venezuela. amazing that the US still follows assassinations of politicians who call for anything other than what the empire wants. For a country that yells the loudest on human rights, democracy, accountability and freedom they sure don’t seem very squeamish about giving refuse and support to mass murders and just plain mega thief’s that loot their entire population blind and store it in US$.