by Auslander for The Saker Blog
International press has pretty much ignored the ongoing civil war between 404 and Novorossiya for the last year. However, for those in Novorossiya, be they far from the lines or near the lines, the war has not stopped and will not stop for another year at least. The casualties on both sides are daily, what was so euphemistically called ‘daily wastage’ in the ‘great war’ that ended 100 years ago yesterday, said anniversary celebrated by both the ‘winners’ and the ‘vanquished’ of that war which saw the end of the world as it was known at the time.
Yesterday was also Election Day in Novorossiya, both republiks, Donetsk Peoples Republik and Lughansk Peoples Republik, elected new administrators. It matters not who was elected nor does it matter what the citizens of both republiks thought of the candidates, what does matter is the election occurred and, while overshadowed by the gathering of heads of state in Paris, some ‘west’ media did notice as did OSCE.
OSCE was particularly vocal in their screams that the election violated Minsk Agreement. This is the same OSCE that can not see a single orc piece of equipment, you know, those tiny tanks, heavy artillery, BMP’s and BTR’s, within the exclusion zone of the Minsk Agreement, nor can this sainted ‘organization’ ascertain where a particular tank shot came from that killed the elderly lady in a DNR village not far from Donetsk City on Saturday morning, 10 November 2018. They also could not ascertain where the rounds came from that killed one DNR soldier and wounded two others on 11 November 2018, during the election.
This is the same OSCE that can not see the fact that 404 has yet to fulfill a single article of Minsk 2 agreement which 404 could not wait to sign after Mutti Merkel and whoever were ‘presidents’ of France and UK at the time ran screaming to Moskau after the Debaltsyevo Cauldron battles ended in complete victory for DNR and a crushing defeat for 404 from which it has yet to and will never recover from. Of course, a good part of the reason for this scramble to Moskau was really to arrange for, behind the scenes and with no publicity, the release of various captured foreign soldiers, said soldiers, while not many of them, being from UK, France, Poland, Germany and US.
The clown show rushing to Moskau learned nothing and to this day, soldiers from those countries and other ‘eu’ countries are still assisting 404 in not only training but active participation in hostilities on the 404 side of the lines of combat. Some have been killed, some wounded, and some captured by the Armed Forces of Novorossiya. Most of those captured are released back to the 404 lines after a friendly chat with AFN intelligence officers and treatment for whatever injuries they may have gotten during the rough pounce of capture.
The elections in both republiks were rousing successes. It is estimated that in excess of 80% of the electorate participated, and there were numerous foreign observers at the polling locations including our sweet little friends from OSCE, not that what they say matters at all. Some useless fop from DoS, Volker, is complaining as usual but he doesn’t matter in the least. The citizens of Novorossiya have voted and by voting showed their preference as to how and where to live.
The actual voting was done as by law in both republiks, picture ID must be presented, this ID being your internal passport, and your name located and checked off on the voter rosters of each precinct. As with the elections in Sevastopol Region and Krimea in 2014, many of the voters did not bother to go in the voting booths, they simply checked off their choices on the paper ballots, walked to the clear plastic and sealed ballot boxes and dropped their ballot in the box, many not even bothering to fold them to ‘hide’ what they chose.
There is one report that as an incentive to get out the vote, all voters received a card with 100 rubles of time on their cell phones in each republik, the republiks having separate companies running the cell and ‘net systems for each. As an added ‘incentive’, two days before the election the bridge overpass in Yenakiyevo was opened, this bridge being destroyed during the fighting in 2014 and falling on two ork tanks. Not BMP’s or BTR’S, but tanks, at least one of which was a T72. This is an important event in that this road opens up heavy vehicular traffic on a significant highway between the two republiks which crossed over the railroad main line.
In regards to the daily SitRep, the ‘low key’ war grinds on. The orcs shoot daily and have systematically destroyed almost all the villages on the Novorossiya side of the lines, literally shooting up the houses one house at a time on one street over a two or three week time, then starting on the next street. Even tiny hamlets with no strategic value of any kind have suffered this treatment.
Casualties on both sides of the line are daily, although almost no civilians on the orc side are injured because AFN refuses to shoot at the orcs when they are sitting in or near residences or infrastructure. Needless to say, the orcs now plant themselves among the civilians and shoot all day and all night. OSCE of course sees nothing. There is even a photo and video of two OSCE vehicles sitting next to orc tanks in Zalizne just west of the lines at Gorlovka, the OSCE operatives studiously ignoring the tanks as they speak to media.
The ork army is exhausted. The steady attrition of their units and equipment has not ceased, and combine that with the rotation out of conscript soldiers, the drinking and drug use rampant in some units, and the soldiers themselves being pushed in to small local attacks which they always lose and lose men in, and desertion has become for the last three years a serious problem. Recruitment and conscription has also taken a serious hit, no one wants to be sent to the meat grinder of the front and it is estimated that in excess of 80% of young men who get the ‘greetings, please report’ notification either bribe their way out or run for the borders.
The population decrease in orcland continues unabated. It is estimated that the true population of orcland in 2013 was 42 millions. The loss of Krimea and Sevastopol cost them well over 2 millions, some say more than 2.5 millions, and the war with Novorossiya cost them an additional 2.8 millions in Donetsk Oblast and 1.5 millions Lughansk Oblast. It is estimated that over 5 millions of orc citizens are living and working in Russia, half a million in Byelorus, and another 4 millions in eu. Judging that half the 5 millions and 4 millions left before the 2013 census, that still leaves slightly over 11 millions of citizens who are no longer in orcland, reducing the populace to an estimated 31 millions. Since most who left for Russia, Byelorus and eu were younger men and women who were at the prime of their work lives, that’s a significant, read catastrophic, lost of productive citizens.
Industry has taken a serious blow from which it will never recover. Donbas, half of which is now Novorossiya, was the heavy and medium industrial powerhouse of 404 and the vast majority of that heavy and medium industry was concentrated in and around Donetsk City and Lughansk City. It’s gone forever. Mariupol has some industry but that has atrophied significantly since 2015. Antonov, the huge aircraft company that for decades was a leader in aircraft design and production, is gone, as in forever. Many of the talented designers and engineers are in Russia, working for Russian aircraft companies. Heavy engine production has ceased, as has aircraft power system production.
The killing hit will be in late summer of 2019 when Nord Stream 2 starts moving product. This will destroy what is left of the orc economy and cut off a not small income for various oligarchs who steal POL from Russian transport to eu. Russia has more than once estimated that 10 to 15% of product moved through the aging pipelines in 404 is ‘lost’, the orcs swearing the loss is ‘technical’ gas and oil used to run the pumps for transit. This straight faced untruth is the butt of many jokes in Russia, let alone eu.
In summation, while many have predicted that 404 will be gone starting in 2015, this has not happened. IMF, and eu and SehSha, have poured billions in to 404 in four years, most of which the populace is saddled with repaying and this is impossible for the populace to do. It remains to be seen what summer 2019 brings, but the only way 404 can survive as a semi recognizable ghost of what it was 5 years ago will be for IMF and eu to continue to pour money in to 404. This will not happen. Russia will in no way, shape or form ‘take over’ 404 for the good of Russia and the world, to do so would saddle Russia with the unimaginable debt 404 has managed to accrue and not even the foolhardy ‘atlanticists’ will advocate such a move if they plan on not having a neck stretching party at the nearest street lamp.
Howdi to Obama and the Banderites!
Bottom line, 404, aka in the past as Ukraine, is dead, it’s just a matter of time before the tottering corpse falls face first in to the mud. This fall may be next year, or the next next year, or a few years down the road, but sooner or later, and I bet sooner, the corpse will fall with a whimper heard only in IMF HQ and Foggy Bottom money printing rooms.
Auslander
Author
Sevastopol, The Third Defense.https://www.amazon. Book 1, A Premonition, The Move South. Set against a backdrop of real events and real places, the reader is left to filter fact from fiction.
An Incident On Simonka https://www.amazon. March 2014. NATO Is Invited To Leave Sevastopol, One Way Or The Other.
Defiance from Donbass. A heroic people who defy the Nazis, the Hegemon, the Oligarchs, the Khazarians, the Fifth Columnists, the EU, NATO, Nuland, Volker, Obama, Trump and the paid assassins who killed their three great leaders, Zakh, Givi and Motorola.
They will die rather than return to Ukraine. They have been the most open victims of Ethnic Cleansing and various other war crimes and crimes against humanity. Whole villages wiped out of males, (Krasny Limon), snipers shooting old ladies, children killed at schools and parks—nothing stops their inevitable exit from Ukraine.
It is impossible not to feel great love for these people of Donbass.
Truly inspiring to see the enormous turnout. These are votes for secession, not just for new leaders.
Putin: take notice.
Surkov: report this and act on it. Work to recognize and separate the entire Donbass not just these two statelets.
They will go down fighting before they return. The horrors that have been visited on them since April of 2014 are unbelievable, but no matter what, they defend their budding republiks and soldier on.
Many of the refugees and evacuees, women and children only, that we got out in summer, fall and winter of ’14 have stayed in Russia, but a not small number have returned to Novorossiya. All the husbands, fathers and brothers stayed to fight and all of them are still serving, and more than one of them has been wounded, recovered and gone right back to service.
Three of the five orphans we ‘kept’ have reached their majority and have gone to serve in AFN, the two teen aged girls from Iwon’ttellyou are field medics, the boy, now a young man, from Iwon’ttellyou has been fighting since early ’15, roughly two days after he reached his majority of 16. The other two, we have them squirreled away so far deep in Russia that if The World is nuked, they will survive. The oldest girl, 12 when we got her, has recovered well from the outrage that was visited on her and is doing top honors in school. Her sister, who at the age of 9 had the same outrage done to her as her sister, is also very well adjusted and doing aces in school, too.
In spite of the depredations visited on Novorossiya, the populace are united and will persevere. This is another one that eu/us will lose.
Auslander
Larch, I totally agree with what you said, and I quote you
“… Putin: take notice.
Surkov: report this and act on it. Work to recognize and separate the entire Donbass not just these two statelets…”
Aus, I quote “They will go down fighting before they return”
I agree Ukraine is dead. And yes, unless Puting says otherwise, Novorosiya will join Mother Russia.
As, Christian Greeks say, and I translate: “From your mouth to God’s Ear”
What or who does “404” refer to? In my part of the world, 404 is the area code for Atlanta, GA, USA, and Americans at times refer to regions by their area code. Thus, while I can get a part of the meaning from the context in which it is used, another part of my brain keeps substituting Atlanta for 404.
Thanks, I feel as though I’ve been reading Auslander’s reports from the region for some time now, and I always enjoy them and feel informed by them. So, thanks both for writing this and for publishing this.
404, ‘Not found’ on computer in this AO, in other words it don’t exist.
Glad you enjoy my reports and SitReps.
404 is the defunct Ukraine, the designation from WWW terminology for a dead link page of a website.
I would say 404 is a good number to use as the telephone area code of atlanta, georgia. A very apt number… ;-D
“…no one wants to be sent to the meat grinder of the front…”
Ah yes, the Ostfront! Never a popular destination, then or now.
And for exactly the same reasons.
“Industry has taken a serious blow from which it will never recover”.
And guess who couldn’t care less – indeed, rejoices mightily? That’s right, Washington.
“Bottom line, 404, aka in the past as Ukraine, is dead, it’s just a matter of time before the tottering corpse falls face first in to the mud”.
And somewhere in Washington, a bunch of US government creatures will be carving another notch in their totem pole. How many notches so far?
Well, currently ruined nations include Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan and Somalia.
Nations that Washington tried to destroy but failed ignominiously include Syria, North Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, Serbia, much of Africa and and most of Latin America.
Nations that Washington pretty much flattened out, but that have had time to rebuild materially include Germany, Japan and Italy. Although they are still politically and spiritually enslaved.
I was telling a German acquaintance of mine about 55 years old, that there are many US military bases in Germany. He had no idea, so I sent him a link showing 21 US military bases and 35,000 soldiers, second only to Japan. He was shocked. He simply didn’t know that his country is occupied by the USA.
And he is a school teacher no less.
MOSCOW, November 12. /TASS/. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday he saw neither pre-requisites for a Normandy Four meeting nor hopes for possible results.
“So far, there is no required ground for Normandy Four discussions; there are no pre-requisites and even hints at possible results are absent,” Peskov said.
Commenting on a meeting held in Paris between German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Pyotr Poroshenko who discussed the results of the elections in the Donbass region, the Kremlin spokesman said that Putin’s participation in this talk had not been envisaged from the very outset.
Moreover, in Peskov’s opinion, this “separate meeting held without Putin was organized because it is impossible so far to continue discussions in the Normandy Four format.
The term “Normandy Four format” stands for talks between the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France, or representatives of these states, on ways of settling the conflict in eastern Ukraine. There have been five summit meetings in this format and 15 meetings of the four countries’ top diplomats. The latest meeting of the Normandy Four leaders took place in Berlin on October 19-20, 2016.
More:
http://tass.com/world/1030456
German Foreign ministry says it needs a dialogue with Russia….wonder why …..well so far Merkel has been a non effective player in Minsk….presumably she is still Chancellor as pure decoration? Germany and EU increasingly having to admit they are affected by sanctions and that they are pointless because they do not really bother Russia….Austria says why sanctions…Italy too……new Macron euro joint security architecture with Russia’s interest or participation of sorts….perhaps..????.could mean what for Ukraine?????
The first requirement for Ukraine from the Kremlin’s POV is deNazification of the country.
Without the Nazis being removed from the Rada, the military, the paramilitaries, and the Intel agencies, Ukraine will stay in limbo, heading to an inevitable destruction.
No one wants to bail out Ukraine.
The US won’t let go of Ukraine as platform (basing) and its military as proxy for military action against Russia.
Until Ukraine actually “collapses” or implodes in some form of civil strife, there cannot be any intercession.
Ukraine is an mental asylum. It cannot be dealt with as a nation. So every idea, plan, effort put forth to hold it upright and get it moving forward has been stillborn and will fail. The entire ruling class, all the elites, every oligarch, all officials at all levels are corrupt. It’s not a functional nation-state. It’s a crazy house. Dangerous and deadly to themselves and all their neighbors as they fester in Banderisma and naziism.
Given the constant stream of outrages, such as the ‘reNazification’ with destruction of Russian statues commemorating the fight against the Germans and the Banderites, and given the constant destruction of Russian speakers’ rights, not to mention other minority rights, and it appears that the Nazi ideology is well entrenched, even the school books are rewritten to instill hatred of Russia.
Frankly, i see this in much of the youth of the post Soviet space. It’s a big problem, de programming the population, which has basically been brainwashed like in a cult will take a lot more work, and may not even be possible.
Excellent post Auslander, both enjoyable to read and informative.
The elections sound better organised and run, and less corrupt, than the mid-terms in the Great Satan.
PS please hurry up with your next 2 books.
Working on that, but it’s been a tough year. I’ve been ill, my wife is ill, three of our precious ‘children’, Plyushya, Ye’katarina and Sophia, have had serious illnesses and operations. Sophia is the author of Blue Cloud and is on the cover.
Two books, Incident and 3rd Defense, are in process of formatting for printing, should have them available by early December. The good thing is it’s now writing season, summer left with a ‘bang’ two days ago so time to wordsmith and get to work.
Auslander
“In summation, while many have predicted that 404 will be gone starting in 2015, this has not happened. IMF, and eu and SehSha, have poured billions in to 404 in four years, most of which the populace is saddled with repaying and this is impossible for the populace to do. It remains to be seen what summer 2019 brings, but the only way 404 can survive as a semi recognizable ghost of what it was 5 years ago will be for IMF and eu to continue to pour money in to 404. This will not happen.”
I believe the Saker predicted in early 2015 that Ukraine would collapse by the end of that year’s summer, and it didn’t happen.
Really?! I don’t know what it would take for you to agree that a country did collapse. I mean, of course, the Ukraine did not vanish from the map, there are people living there, there is some business being conducted and there even is something like a central government. That is also true for Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sierra Leone or Liberia. But here we are talking about the richest and most prosperous and powerful ex Soviet republic, with a very skilled population, natural resources, no natural enemy and in an ideal position in terms of trade. If the Ukraine was somewhere in Africa I would maybe not called it “failed” but for the European and Asian continent this is the most abjectly failed country ever, no? Can you name one even more screwed-up?
The Saker
You predict here, but it’s yet to be seen.
We should bookmark this thread and see how Ukraine is doing in late 2019.
The problem with the use of the word “collapse” is that it was used by supporters of the Kremlin’s strategy as illustrated with Minsk. The idea was that Moscow simply had to wait and not do much inside the Ukraine or Kiev to gain an acceptable regime. Due to collapse, Berlin and Washington would come to their senses and agree to a compromise. This has not happened. In my view, it won’t happen. Either come to a compromise with the West or create ways of forcing a deNazification. Those are the choices if you want an acceptable regime in Kiev. If you are contented with what you have now, keep doing what you are doing now.
In other words, things may be bad in the Ukraine, but that is not a collapse. And the deindustrialization of the Ukraine is not a failure by the US, it is a success.
Come on we’ve been through of this before. What would you call a population decline from 52 million in the 1990s to 42 million at the present time other than a demographic collapse. Ukraine, like all the other Eastern european states is bleeding people. Here is a report from the Atlantic Council (of all places) which draws attention to the demographic crisis in Eastern Europe generally but Ukraine specifically, since its problems are by far the most serious.
Ukraine Headed for Perfect Storm of Demographic Decline
BY PETER DICKINSON of the Atlantic Council
Children wait for the beginning of the Orthodox Easter service outside the Pechersk Lavra monastery in Kyiv, Ukraine, April 15, 2017. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko
In January, the Czech government announced plans to double its annual quota for Ukrainian fast-track migrant workers from 9,600 to 19,600. Three years ago, the quota had been just 3,800. Prague’s message is clear—Ukrainian workers are not merely welcome but vital to the Czech Republic’s economy.
The Czechs are not the only ones in Central and Eastern Europe seeking to entice greater numbers of Ukrainian workers to replenish their own depleted populations. From the Baltic to the Balkans, national governments are relaxing employment regulations and looking at ways to bolster their Ukrainian workforce. Many are actively recruiting within Ukraine itself, with billboards in towns and cities advertising the attractions of seasonal work or full-scale emigration. Others have set up agencies and launched multimedia campaigns as they fight over the human resource Klondike that is the highly skilled and grossly underpaid Ukrainian workforce.
It is not hard to see why the idea of importing workers is so popular across the region. Central and Eastern Europe suffers from a perfect storm of demographic decline that threatens to undermine the political and economic progress achieved over the past quarter of a century. Low birth rates, high mortality rates, and vast outflows of youth migration to the wealthier nations of Western Europe are combining to create shrinking populations where pensioners may soon begin to outnumber those of working age.
This phenomenon makes the region unique. According to UN figures, the ten countries with the fastest-shrinking populations in the world are all former Eastern Bloc nations.
Ukraine is prominent among these dwindling populations and set to witness an 18 percent decline by 2050. The UN list also features Bulgaria, Croatia, Serbia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Romania, and Poland. Over the next thirty years, each of these countries faces the prospect of at least a 15 percent drop. Demographers say such drops are historically unheard of except in times of war.
Why is Central and Eastern Europe turning to Ukraine as the solution to their demographic woes? Costs, skills, and proximity all serve to make Ukrainians attractive economic immigrants. The economic crash that accompanied Ukraine’s 2014 Revolution of Dignity and subsequent hybrid war with Russia has served to amplify preexisting economic disparities between Ukraine and its EU neighbors. Ukrainians earn the lowest average salaries in Europe, making the modest incomes on offer in Central Europe seem like a king’s ransom. Geographical proximity also makes Ukraine an appealing option, with Ukrainian workers readily available on short notice. They enjoy a positive reputation as highly educated employees with a good work ethic.
Perhaps the biggest selling point for Ukrainian migrants is their cultural compatibility. Western Europe has long grown used to the idea of covering its own demographic shortfalls through mass immigration from African and Asian countries, but this remains a politically toxic option for much of Central and Eastern Europe. Electorates there have repeatedly demonstrated their opposition to non-European immigration and have shown resistance to multiculturalism. These diverging attitudes toward immigration have caused ruptures between old and new Europe, leading to escalating confrontations within the EU and fueling the rise of populist nationalism in Poland and Hungary.
Against this backdrop of identity politics and anti-immigration anxiety, Ukrainian economic migrants have come to be seen as the least worst option for a region that desperately needs new workers but fears losing its historic character. Ukrainians benefit from positive perceptions as ethnically, religiously, culturally, and socially close to their Central European neighbors, making successful assimilation less of a challenge.
The popularity of Ukrainian workers is most evident in Poland. The Polish government has led the way in welcoming Ukrainians, issuing work permits to more than one million since 2014. The rapid expansion of the Ukrainian workforce has become a central plank of Poland’s economic policy, allowing the country to maintain growth rates despite labor shortages. The approach has set the tone throughout the region.
Poland has also sought to reap geopolitical benefits from its recent Ukrainian arrivals by positioning them as refugees. Polish politicians like to argue that the EU should be thanking Warsaw for harboring so many Ukrainians fleeing Russian aggression, rather than pressuring the country to accept Syrian immigrants. This argument has convinced few in Brussels while annoying many in Kyiv. In truth, virtually none of the Ukrainians who moved to Poland since 2014 would qualify as refugees. They are economic migrants drawn by the same promise of higher salaries and brighter prospects that has seen millions of Poles leave their own country for Western Europe.
While the debate continues over the status of Poland’s Ukrainian community, there is no question that the rapid expansion of this community is transforming the makeup of Polish society. Ukrainian communities of similar prominence now look set to become the norm throughout Eastern and Central Europe. Ukrainians are already the largest minority in the Czech Republic. Within a decade, they will be the dominant minority in towns and cities throughout the entire region.
The flow of Ukrainians into Central and Eastern Europe poses significant problems for Ukraine itself, raising the prospect of a demographic decline that could easily outpace what are already disastrous UN projections for the country.
As Ukraine’s authorities seek to head off this looming disaster, they will find that short of closing the country’s borders, there are no quick fixes. Resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine would certainly help by easing the short-term pressures created by millions of displaced people, but until salaries and living standards in Ukraine move closer to those in neighboring EU countries, the population drain will continue.
These trends will hit Ukraine’s impoverished rural communities and regional centers hard. The Ukrainian countryside has experienced rapid population decline since the Soviet collapse and continues to suffer from dilapidated infrastructure and economic inertia. These regional realities are likely to lend the ongoing decentralization process a sense of added urgency as small town Ukraine finds itself competing directly against life inside the EU.
Thanks to a big post-Maidan push to decentralize power, local Ukrainian communities already enjoy considerably more access to state funds. This will give rural Ukraine a fighting chance and allow inventive administrators to make individual districts more appealing. Coordinated nationwide efforts are also necessary in order to keep local communities alive and convince Ukrainians that they can build an attractive future for their children in their own country. Better roads, schools, and healthcare will encourage people to start families and persuade them to stay, even if the salaries on offer are not as high as elsewhere.
In the long term, nothing will prevent Ukrainians from continuing to vote with their feet unless Ukraine becomes more competitive. The current gulf in living standards between Ukraine and even the poorest nations of the EU makes further population shifts inevitable, with Ukraine trapped in the unenviable role of supply source for a region scrambling to bridge the gaps in its own depleted workforces. Unless Ukraine addresses this issue urgently, the country’s demographic crisis will only worsen. Within a generation, depopulation may become a far greater threat than both corruption and the Kremlin.
404 has suffered a 25% loss in population in five years, 2014-2018. The figure of 42 millions population is an estimate from a half a///d ‘census’ done in fall of 2013, far from the reality of today, and the announced 42 millions in 2013 may well have been somewhat optimistic.
As I made clear in the article, it’s the younger workers, the best and brightest, who are voting with their feet and leaving 404 in droves, not only to the sainted paradise of eu but to Byelorus and the slight majority to Russia.
Auslander
As for Poland: there are still many Polish Ukrainians around Lvov and other parts of Galicja. The same can be said with regards to Slovakia, Czechy and Hungary. They are willing to accept their own, and Ukraine likes to get rid of all the minorities. Except for Russians, who are the majority.
Also, not everyone wants to pack up and give the gang ruling Ukraine free lunch in the form of land.
Remarkable article about very remarkable people! Thanks!
I was also particularly moved by the comments from Larchmonter, Auslander, and others. As Larchmonter said, it is impossible not to feel great love for these people; I would add great respect as they personify the spirit, the strength, the soul, and the courage of the Russian narod.
Thank you Auslander for the detailed Sitrep. I have so much respect for the heroic people of the Donbass who have fought valiantly against a horrendous and unjust junta 404.
The war crimes that have been perpetrated upon them since 2014 will never be forgotten by many of us here at the Saker site who have followed this closely from the start.
The head of the 404 was in Paris yesterday meeting Merkel/Macron – Putin did not attend – let them (EU) fester in the utter disaster they created along with the US.
When people are united – they will never win. God bless and protect the people of Donbass/Novorossiya.
First, it mattered much who won in these elections…why? Those that won made sure that all strong contenders were eliminated from the race, entirely. Essentially Pushilin and Pasechnik ran unopposed. Thus, the elections were a dreadful sham and have disappointed many in the Republics, including the Militia members.
Most now fear that these seemingly elected ‘puppets’ of Akhmetov, Taruta and Purchenko will sell them off to Kiev, since Pushilin gave them back the mines and industries, that Zakharenko had seized, due to their collaboration with Kiev. And of course, these oligarch parasites can not sell their ‘treasures’ for prime market value, unless the Republics reunite with Ukraine.
So NO, these elections were not a success for the LDNR’s citizen’s wishes to be free from Ukraine. The elections were, in fact, a death sentence. RIP Novorossiya and all who shed their blood for you!
A grim and sobering counterpoint.
I don’t know how to respond to it, but I hope that those much closer to the situation that do know how, will address the vast gulf separating your perception from that of the author and most commenters.
Nova Shpakova
You are far from the mark. The point is Novorossiya held the elections, that was my point in the article. Reality is it does matter who one for day to day administration of DNR/LNR, but internationally it doesn’t, the very fact of the election and how it was carried out with no corruption or ballot stuffing says reams about the progress of the republiks.
The elected leaders are far from puppets of Akhmetov et al, they are representatives of the populace, not the oligarchs. Novorossiya will never return to 404 no matter what happens. Just look at the infrastructure that is out of range of the orcs. Vast monies have been spent on roads, bridges, railroads, electric, water and gas systems. Not a kopek was spent with Akhmetov owned the place, he stole it all.
Of course there is corruption, no place on this earth is without that human foible, but at least a fair amount is being spent on the populace during a war, instead of all being stolen in the ‘peace’ that was there before. As an indication, many thousands of refugees have returned from Russia to DNR/LNR. If things weren’t better, they would not return, war or no war.
Auslander
Seems like monumental arrogance and immutable cussedness on the part of Washington and its NATO war dogs to keep the violence emanating from the Kiev fascists well stoked and amply supplied with weapons and training. They absolutely do not want the war to end or the killing to stop unless unless Poroshenko and his Banderistas prevail, Donbass is crushed and Crimea is returned to the murdering thugs.
They would posture that any cessation of hostilities and liberation of the assailed provinces is impermissible because of bald “Russian aggression,” rather than the real truth of the matter. They would sooner that the native populations on both sides of the conflict line be decimated rather than to see the ethnic Russian side prevail and peace restored. They have no humanity or compassion whatsoever.
They refuse to apply the same philosophical arguments that they themselves used to justify the deliberate dissection of Yugoslavia or the excision of Kosovo from Serbia as an independent state, i.e., the right of self-determination and the cessation of what was claimed to be genocide–or “ethnic cleansing” in more gracious terms. Certainly both Crimea and Donbass have expressed the wish for self-determination and separation from the illegal Maidan insurrectionists and have acted upon it in democratic plebecites with quite definitive outcomes. The daily random killing of innocent civilians by ceaseless bombardment across a line of conflict seems an awful lot like “ethnic cleansing” to me, since all the victims are ethnic Russians killed by Ukrainian aggressors, with the help of NATO advisors.
Obviously, in a sane and moral world, Washington, NATO, the EU and the OSCE would have no legitimate standing to instigate or support the crimes we see committed every day. However, unless the genocidal fascists are defeated conclusively on the battlefield by the Donbass Republics, with or without assistance from the Russian Federation, I think all those Western factions will be happy to support this death cult ad infinitum, while they deny any responsibility for the consequences. They will continue to place the blame on Putin and Russia and most of the world will nod in agreement because they are too fearful to do otherwise.
Thank you Saker for this. Also Larchmonter, Auslander, et al, for your insightful comments.
How does this situation move forward. It’s a disaster from every perspective, humanitarian, economic, cultural, religious, security ………… .
If there were to be a referendum in Donbass as per Crimea, would the outcome be similar, overwhelmingly in favour ?
Would it be economically viable, not profitable, of course, just viable/doable ? Would Russia’s security not be improved, and that of the these desperate people ? If infrastructure ( a colossal problem I imagine) were to be improved, providing local employment but largely funded by Moscow/China/EEU ??? Would not the rest of Ukraine gaze in envy, as the ordinary man and woman must now do at Crimea ? As the world must do, but never admit it. Wouldn’t this show in stark contrast, the Russian way and the West’s?
This is probably a naive view of things, is it just down to money. I would be most appreciative if someone could take the time to comment.
Kind Regards
Nice sitrep + nice comments (from the usual suspects ), fingers crossed Ukropistan collapases in 2019, I’m tired waiting for Novorossiya rehab plan (like most of us)
What saddens me is the G.O.T feudal style which remains in the whole of former UA and the fact that this vote was a selection rather than an election (pun taken from a close relative still there). Mozgovoi was right regarding ALL pretendents to the iron throne. Anyway….
2 reports from today: arrogant/interfering, thieving, yank government via perry: http://www.stalkerzone.org/the-us-secretary-of-energy-wants-to-turn-ukraine-into-the-texas-of-europe/
Who remembers seeing the video of that sick, satanic jew newland, talking in 2013 about the (at least) $5 billion that the USG had spent on ukraine, with the chevron logo beside her?
Over 1 million freezing ukrainians (from ap): https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-6383793/Gas-dispute-leaves-hundreds-thousands-freezing-Ukraine.html
In Donetsk yesterday, as I was told at about 9pm (their local time), it was already -5C, yet inside the apartment there it was nice and warm.
” They have been the most open victims of Ethnic Cleansing and various other war crimes and crimes against humanity. Whole villages wiped out of males, (Krasny Limon), snipers shooting old ladies, children killed at schools and parks—.”
= western democratic values. I like to remind of the atrocities these values have done in India and the rest of Asia in Africa and the Americas
”Bottom line, 404, aka in the past as Ukraine, is dead, it’s just a matter of time before the tottering corpse falls face first in to the mud.”
Well, it’s most certainly a due reward — ask for European values and enjoy them accordingly but, very sadly, without any NATO to wreak havoc in Crimea. All the best to the heroic people of Crimea, the DNR, and the LNR.
Last but not least: Russia has a golden opportunity now to settle the Ukraine with Russians. This is especially urgent since Zionism has set its greedy, evil eyes on the very same land.
”OSCE of course sees nothing. There is even a photo and video of two OSCE vehicles sitting next to orc tanks in Zalizne just west of the lines at Gorlovka, the OSCE operatives studiously ignoring the tanks as they speak to media.”
OSCE = Occidental Sleaze Corruption and Evil. 100% Russophobia-on-duty. The organization has been raging and fuming non-stop about — yes — Russia’s-illegal-annexation-of-Crimea and the ensuing ”abuse of minorities” in the wake of aforesaid ”illegal annexation”. Just like the equally vile and putrid ”Yalta European Strategy”, the OSCE fraternity would find itself without any staff if there were no sops and perks to be had for spreading Russophobia.
The suffering of the Donbass people is beyond the limits of my imagination.
Thank you Auslander, for reminding us of the immense struggle and courage of these brave people resisting the evil trust upon them.
The SMM’s hug has been replaced with the brit Mark Etherington, a former paratrooper, wef 01 11 18.
In 1992-1995 he worked in the eu monitoring mission in Yugoslavia. European missions in Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia; was involved in collapse of Yugoslavia.
Having him in hug’s place is worse, and I expect him to be very biased against the Donbass Defenders.
A brief video from the AP (amazing) of a camp for young people in 404, training them to kill “non-humans”, ie., Russians.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=161&v=vMiJCClj_uY
The group operating this camp is “Freedom”, Svoboda, Свободу. A founding party, part of the Maidan junta, and in the Rada.
Led by a State Dept. favorite, Oleh Tyahnybok.
A whole new generation of young fascists, Russophobes and cannon fodder for US/NATO.
Ideology, AK-47’s, fear of the chimera, adult modeling–what could go wrong? These children will be warped for life.
The perfect agents to use for a lifetime if they survive into their own full adulthood.
A petri dish camp brewing hate and violence. That’s 404.
Haha, kudos in retrospect to the Saker for his excellent blog post (submitted July 9th last year) on the subject of the ”Pilban syndrome”. The clip above neatly explains everything about it. To wit, it is a state of mind where all your ugliness, backwardness, stupidity, and futility not just become top class virtues — it is also assumed here that aforesaid ’virtues’ will come to the rescue of ”Europe”, accompanied by your own rise to the status of worshipped hero, of course.
Imagine these slobs trying to lead the Ziogays. Can barely wait for it to happen, LOL.