Yes, the Russians have received a written reply from the US and NATO.
However, the actual documents have not been leaked yet (but, of course, they will).
Lavrov has said that there are some substantive aspects, but key Russian demands have not been met. He reminded that all OSCE member states, including the USA, that they all have signed the Istanbul Declaration of 1999 and and the Astana Declaration of 2010. Both these documents refer to the indivisible nature of security and make the promise to abide by this principle. Thus, while these documents do uphold the right of every country to choose whatever alliances it wants to join, it prohibits the member states to do so at the cost of the security of any other signatory.
Now Russia will send a letter to each OSCE member state asking them why they are reneging on their written pledge.
So what do we know?
It certainly clear that after one and a half month of “consultations” the War Party prevailed. Hardly a big surprise.
Russia is obviously not satisfied with the replies she got. Russian officials have already admitted this.
Russian armed forces are also engaged in truly large military exercises involving the entire Russian Navy (4 fleets), forces and command structures from Russia’s eastern regions. Russia is also deploying Airborne Forces, EW units, S-400 air defense missiles to Belarus. Finally, Putin has ordered a test drill of Russian strategic deterrence forces. All in all, the forces Russia is placing on high alert are now becoming quite significant and will impact much more than just the Donbass.
Other than that, this is way too early to reach any conclusions. As the French say, “you have to give time to time”, meaning that while there is a natural desire to finally get the final results and to make big statements about what just happened or will happen next, the truth is that now is NOT the time to come to such conclusions (at least if you care about the real world more than about your impatience).
The western media has literally conditioned its audience in Zone A to quasi instant “analyses” or “breaking news” and other buzzwords which they quickly spew irresponsibly but, considering the attention span and intellectual passivity of its audience, they get away with without any consequences.
I suggest that we not “play CNN” here and take the time needed to get the “real factual facts” and not rush into any premature conclusions.
I suggest that we wait a day or two before we reach any conclusions.
Andrei
We can hope that European greed will prevail over warmongering, this Ukrainian situation is showing that Nato is not a united front. Like for German businessman, surprisingly, also Italian big businessman go ahead and trade with Russia. I post the first news link just to show you how pissed off are the Tabaquis (i.e. Italy government).
https://www.euronews.com/2022/01/26/italian-business-leaders-embarrass-rome-by-holding-video-meeting-with-vladimir-putin
I think we should not underestimate the division inside the West side, as this US posture in Ukraine seems a way to force everyone to fall on the same line. Russia should continue to play on this. Is this the result of the “bilateral talks” strategy, neglecting at all EU institutions?
What would happen if Russia and China:
1. Announced the availability of digital national currencies backed by physical gold, especially for international transactions.
2. Initial value of physical gold to be today’s ruble and renminbi equivalent of $10K per ounce to be reviewed in 6 months based on market experience.
3. Current fiat US$ not to be accepted for payment for anything.
4. All contracts in fiat US$ to be renegotiated into national currencies within 6 months.
5. Any debts remaining in fiat US$ to be canceled in 6 months.
6. Negotiated acceptance of new US$ backed by audited physical gold.
7. Lend US 1000 tonnes of physical gold in stages based on staged withdrawal of all US military assets to continental US.
Specific numbers are simply suggestions.
An excellent idea!
President/Supreme Commander V.V. Putin assembled the Security Council of the Russian Federation
Let me remind you that in order to formally adopt a “Special Importance” decision, Putin needs to secure a Security Council Resolution. This is an unspoken protocol.
The State Duma and the Federation Council as and when necessary.
In the event of a threat to national security, the decision can be made not only by Putin and not only by a person. And “nuclear suitcases” (he is not alone) are garbage, and without receiving security signals (silence mode), strategic missiles will fly at targets. Even without launching the so-called command missiles in automatic mode. “Dead Hand” systems / so-called. “Perimeter”.
Usti, in Russia today there are 6 (six) underground command posts of the Strategic Missile Forces (RVSN), united into a single system along with …
How much does USSTRATCOM have? One at Offutt Air Force Base (Omaha, Nebraska) and a Boeing E-4B? )))
PS
I repeat once again: Putin will fire a “delayed presidential [duel] shot” of Russia on February 4 in Beijing and will be economic – in the form of agreements with the Secretary General-Chairman Comrade Xi.
Inaccurate quote. – in the original, Ryabkov has a “military and military-technical response.”
Lavrov:
– “We have extensive military and military-technical ties with our partners, allies, we have our presence in different regions of the world. Military-technical measures are measures for the deployment of military equipment, this is obvious.”
Federal Law of July 19, 1998 No. 114-FZ “On Military-Technical Cooperation of the Russian Federation with Foreign States” (as amended)
Article 1. Basic concepts
military-technical cooperation – activities in the field of international relations related to export and import, including the supply or purchase of military products, as well as the development and production of military products; …
Military products include:
weapons and military equipment – complexes of various types of weapons and means of ensuring their combat use, including delivery vehicles, guidance, launch, control systems, as well as other special technical equipment designed to equip the armed forces, ammunition and their components, spare parts, details , devices and components for instruments, training weapons (models, simulators and simulators of various types of weapons and military equipment);
…
In recommending your site to people, I have explained that you provide well-thought-out analyses, not snap ones. People are so used to up-to-the-minute news accompanied by the latest snap conclusions, which they will have forgotten five minutes from now and be hungry for the next.
What a world the cellphone has created!
What happened with the Ukraine war is there will not be one. The Brits and Americans were kicked out (security threats) and Zelensky got taken to the cleaners for terrorism and will be withdrawing Ukrainian terrorists and US contractors. The agreement was negotiated within the European Normandy format at Macron’s villa along with the Germans who negotiated all this without any help from the US. This means Europe broke with US who was fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian so they can charge Europe twice as much for energy. Really bad deal for Ukraine and Europe, but sense US and NATO not as strong in Europe as expected. I think the Europeans like Russia’s idea of security better than US’s. How could you hope for a better outcome to the Ukrainian War?
Russian Ambassador to Australia gave a one hour interview to the Australian press. Full interview available on YouTube via SBS (Australian government multicultural broadcaster).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnu8mfxrLfE
Kind regards.
Time to give time to time. A few days of waiting is good for all.
However, it is always fun to play the guessing game on what Russia will do next.
My guesses:
1. Syria- Increased weapons and supplies especially air defence. Announcement of new fighters for Syrian Air Force. Joint air patrols have already been announced. A no-fly zone over Syria will be announced.
2. UN Security Council resolution tabled to remove a foreign troops from Syria except those invited by the Syrian gov. This will force the US to veto it thus giving the US bad PR.
3. Announcement of Russian/Vietnam agreement re using Vietnam ports for Russian Navy.
4. Announcement of increased weapons sales to Iran. Strategic co-operation with Iran announced to achieve common aims such as removing US from the Mid-east.
5. Additions to CSTO members- perhaps some from former Yugoslavia.
6. Announcement by one of the smaller NATO members that they are leaving the organisation plusdemand to remove NATO weapons from their territory.
and so on….
@ Saker
Greetings.
President of Belarus gave an “Address to the Belarusian people and the National Assembly,” of which the “President of the Republic of Belarus” website only shows excerpts. Would it be possible to get a full transcription of his speech? I read a few quotes, and Lukashenko defines the conditions under which Belarus will go to war.
Thanks, and sorry to burden you with more work than you already have.
https://president.gov.by/en/events/poslanie-belorusskomu-narodu-i-nacionalnomu-sobraniyu-1643378628#block-after-media-scroll
Lone Wolf
404 delenda est!
The combined detachment of large landing ships of the Baltic and Northern Fleets of the Russian Navy continues its transition to the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea.
The consolidated detachment is divided into two groups, three BDKs in each
from said fleets. The ships of the Baltic Fleet (“Minsk”, “Korolev” and “Kaliningrad”) were the first to enter the Mediterranean Sea.
At some distance behind them is a group of large landing ships of the Northern Fleet (“Peter Morgunov”, “Olenegorsky Miner” and
“George the Victorious”).
The Russian ships are followed by a “duty observer” – the American destroyer USS Ross (USS Ross or DDG-71) of the Arleigh Burke type (assigned to the Rota base, Spain). Before that, a similar task was performed by the same type of destroyer Roosevelt (USS Roosevelt or DDG-80) of the US Navy, assigned
to the same naval base.
The US MIComplex has evolved to very efficiently steal money. The measurable utility of the equipment is not the primary goal. For Russia, who have ample evidence of conspiracy against them, they have no choice but to create the best equipment for the money.
That US military personnel are indoctrinated in a fantasy is evident. Those riding confidently about on aircraft carriers are living in a mirage. Meanwhile the Russian fleet is getting new ships that are small in size with deadly missiles. Or submarines that impress by their lack of detectable presence.
Russians have concentrated on the reality that results come from capabilities, not fantasies or Hollywood hype and DC bravado. I can only pray that if push comes to shove the Russians will treat civilians more kindly than the US treats its own people and that we will prove worthy of some respect.
Verbal diarrhoea – LTSD (s)
———————-
” I can only pray that if push comes to shove the Russians will treat civilians more kindly than the US treats its own people and that we will prove worthy of some respect.”
Perfection is never an option.
“The United States of America” is a complex of interactive coercive social relations not to be conflated with/restricted to a temporary geo-political construct self-misrepresented as “The United States of America” with Canada to the north and Mexico to the south.
The purpose of “The United States of America” is the continuation of coercive social relations through any means – a model of alienation, whilst the purpose of the Russian Federation is to live in sustainable peace and security with the co-operation of others – a model of cooperative inclusion/independence..
This was and remains the intention of a growing sum of some from 1969 onwards,understood as only being achievable on bases of mutual respect and co-operation not competition, and that “The United States of America” posed and continues to pose an existential threat to the continuation of life on this planet including their own, and hence require transcendence – defeat of the temporary geo-political construct self -branded “The United States of America” not being suffiicent in itself to facilitate the purpose.
It is also understood that although it is not the desired mode/trajectory of transcendence, one mode of transcending “The United States of America” is through Mutually Assured Destruction.
All of the above informed a question posed in 1969 following the Tet offensive in Vietnam, which still informs the activities of a growing sum of some – “How to drown a drowning man with the minimum of blowback ? ” – the ecological option under consideration at the time due to the self-ecocide of “The Soviet Union”, if informed by the understanding that too many cadavers poison the water supply, also informed by mostly former practices of “The Soviet Union”
That is not believed by many in the coercive social relations self-misrepresented as “The United States of America”.
This was and is understandable, since many social practices there-in are based upon charades/theatrics in the hope of assuaging at least some of their inherent fear/insecurity – in some instances resort to belief being one illustration of the attempt of assuaging, as a consequence of almost constant competition and punishment for failures – and hence requires a process of cooperative lateral transcendence to facilitate not “propaganda” which is a tool of coercion – the encourager of “what is” the limiter of “how to”.
The Russian Federation is not “The Soviet Union” since in interactions, change is a constant with variables including trajectory and velocity, hence notions predicated on stasis including “human nature” are illusions even in the tales of La Fontaine.
“The Soviet Union” was also a complex of coercive social relations and hence to some degree an emulative part clone of “The United States of America”, and hence never posed an existential threat to “the United States of America” but sought in oscillating degrees “detente” on the basis of spheres of influence with “The United States of America” , and a component of why a growing sum of some do not perceive the demise of “The Soviet Union” and its ongoing transcendence by the Russian Federation as an unmitigated catastrophe, even whilst understanding that The Russian Federation in co-operation with others does pose an existential threat to “The United of America” and that blowback cannot be wholly avoided, only minimised.
Off topic but that is a very cool looking watch!
You can read about this one and others here: https://russian24hours.info/
Andrei
Thank for the link Andrei! Is this your site? Very informative!
A couple of interesting stories today. And another comment at the end:
1. Ukrainians are asking the West to stop hyping fears of a Russian invasion. The US wants to hype those fears for their domestic audience with “horrible bad Russia”. And NATO the same for their domestic audiences in Europe. But the side affect is that investors and some others are fleeing Ukraine.And their economy (what there is of it) is taking a bad hit.So now they are trying to put a lid on that talk. The saying “be careful what you wish for”,comes to mind.
https://www.rt.com/russia/547666-zelensky-west-havoc-blaming/
2. The Poles want to make a deal with Russia,where the Russians can inspect the NATO installations in Poland.And they get to inspect Russian military installations in Kaliningrad. They say the Russians asked for that deal. My thinking on that is,if you agree to something like that you legitimize NATO having military installations in Poland to begin with. Which is what Russia has been saying they don’t want.So I’m not sure what to make of that.
https://www.rt.com/russia/547506-poland-ready-deal-moscow/
Before I get too worried/hopeful,take your pick on that,over what is happening with this crisis. I’ll wait to see a few things happening first.
1. A “shadow government for Ukraine” is formed.
2. Russia recognizes the Donbass republics as co-belligerents and officially gives aid.
3.Russia withdraws it’s diplomats from Kiev,and un-recognizes the current Maidan government.
4.Russia starts to prepare bomb shelters and instructs the public about them.
5.Russia cuts of much of the strategic goods trading with NATO states,and starts the use of a SWIFT alternative.
6.Russia bans the US dollar in their trade,inside and outside of Russia. Only trade directly with the US might be different there.
Until some or all of these things are done,I’m not overly worried.
Good advice indeed, Saker !
I’ve been thinking about it, and I have to modify my idea of a carrier trap set by Russia. I do not think Russia will fire on the US Navy unless the US Navy fires first, such as using Tomahawk cruise missiles against some target in Russia’s neighborhood.
If things get hot in the Ukraine, don’t you think China will notice a huge open door to attack Taiwan. Ukraine is nothing to America. Taiwan manufactures 90% of the chips we need for EVERYTHING in our economy to work.
We need nothing economically from the Ukraine.
We need everything from Taiwan.
And you don’t think Biden’s war hawks haven’t played this war game….??
Hug your kids while you can..