In a recent post I wrote the following:
And so once the “shock and awe” phase has failed to produce any signs of shock or of awe – what happens next? (…) an Anglo invasion of Syria might well trigger an influx of Shia volunteers from Iran, Iraq and Lebanon; that would also offer Iran the perfect opportunity to “send in volunteers” (remember that the students who took over the US embassy in Tehran were also ‘volunteer civilian students’ and that the revolutionary government denied having any control over them) (…) consider the following: the fact that the US or NATO cannot send troops hardly means that the Iranians, the Iraqis or Hezbollah could not do that. In fact, what could the US do if, say, Moqtada al-Sadr decided to send some of his followers to fight the Takfiris in Syria? Protest and threaten, but there is really nothing much else they could do (…) This is the huge weakness in the US/NATO posture: while the US/NATO/CENTCOM capabilities to engage in a massive bombing and cruise missile strikes are truly formidable, they have nothing else to follow up with. Everybody in the Middle-East knows that the Americans do not have what it takes to go tow-to-toe against an insurgency. These are the folks who used B-2 stealth bombers over Afghanistan but who a full decade later failed to even control most of Kabul in daytime.
As is so often the case, the events on the ground actually developed even much faster than I thought.
I can confirm on the basis of information received from three different sources that the Iranians have begun moving a large military force into Syria. One of these sources I can quote: Robert Fisk who wrote the article “Iran to Send 4,000 Troops to Aid President Assad Forces in Syria” for the Independent. There is also evidence of volunteers from Lebanon.
I think that we can safely make the assumption that the 4000 Iranians sent to Syria are just a beginning and that Tehran can send as many
soldiers as needed. I can also add here that we are not talking about well-meaning civilians here, but highly trained Pasdars – you can think of them as “the people who trained Hezbollah”. One of my best sources tells me that this entire operations is closely coordinated with Russian specialists while another source even mentions Russians on the ground with the Iranians.
It therefore appears that Tehran has decided to preempt a US/NATO attack on Syria by moving in forces even before the shooting start. I have to sincerely say that this is nothing short of a brilliant move as there is nothing at all the Anglo Empire can do to stop this at this point in time and once the full force is in place it will be impossible to target it separately.
I can add here that the idea of sending in “international brigades” has been discussed in specific Russian and Ukrainian military circles, but that it is likely that the Russian authorities want to keep the visible presence of ethnic Russian to a minimum. What they can do is send it Russian ethnic groups which do not externally appear as Slavs. I am thinking, believe it or not, of anti-Wahabi Chechens who are fully integrated into the Russian military intelligence service GRU (the Russians already did something similar once in Lebanon).
Both Russian and Iranian sources confirm that the two government are very closely cooperating on this entire operation and that uninterrupted close consultations are taking place.
In the meantime, most Hezbollah units are withdrawn from Syria and repositioned to defend Lebanon from a possible Israeli attack.
Bottom line: it is already becoming clear that Barak Obama made a huge – strategic – mistake with his “crossing the red line” nonsense about a “limited use of chemical weapons” by the government forces. Obama probably wanted to give the insurgency a better bargaining position for the Geneva II negotiations, but all he succeeded in doing is fundamentally changing the strategic balance on the ground. It is one thing to fight the Syrian military, it is a qualitatively other one to fight the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. By committing these forces already now, the Iranians are sending a chilling message to Washington: “we do not fear you, and our commitment to Syria is open ended”.
As a military analyst specializing in strategic analysis I have to marvel at the superb elegance of the Iranian move because it essentially checkmates the USA’s entire strategic plan for the Middle-East. When I wrote that there is no way the US would put any boots on the ground, I assumed that they would not dare to do that against the Syrians. But, at least, some really naive Americans could have hoped that with enough bombing of Syrian civilians (a la Kosovo) the regime would eventually have to give in. With thousands of Iranian Pasdars on the ground this is categorically not an option.
This development, apparently only noticed by Robert Fisk, is really a game changer. What this means for the USA/NATO/CENTCOM/Israel/al-Qaeda is this: “GAME OVER!”.
The Russian/Iranian alliance has done what it does best: it has responded asymmetrically to the US moves. While the entire world was focusing on S-300s deliveries and Russian Navy moves, it essentially negated the entire US strategy by qualitatively changing the facts on the ground before the US could even react.
US options at this point are extremely limited. Yes, it can still engage in an orgy of civilian killings just to punish the Syrians and prevent elections. It can also denounce the Iranian intervention, but since the entire planet by now knows that the insurgency is largely foreign and supported by the USA’s own admission (!), this would be rather hollow. It can also do the wise thing and strenuously look away from the Iranian presence on the ground and pretend like nothing happened. If it decided to do that, it could even try to get some kind of face saving deal at Geneva II. Attacking Iran is not an option (even less so after the beautiful elections the Iranians just had). Blaming Russia is not an option either as there is exactly zero proof of Russian involvement.
The war itself is, of course, not quite over yet. This will all take time to play itself out. But yes, this is most definitely the beginning of the end. To the disgraceful defeats in Afghanistan and Iraq the US can now add a no less disgraceful defeat in Syria. Good.
The Saker
Dear Saker,
I fully concur with your analysis, and I will add that the pictures coming out of the G8 summit show clearly that Putin will not budge one inch, but Geneva 2 is in jeapordy…
I will also add to your post the fantastic defeat suffered by the Empire and the IDF in Lebanon in 2006….A monumental obstacle to their criminal designs since then…hence they fine tuned their planning with the Wahhabi onslaught on Syria and Lebanon….
Best,
Joe
Putin is the best chess player to come along in ages. Although I still look at him askance, after all he IS who he is, but his actions so far are good. I have also noticed in past events in the ME, Russia’s role has been downplayed somewhat here in the West. Russia has a history of action when various MR countries have been under fire. He will not be fooled as he was in the case of Libya.
The true defenders of Islam, Hezbollah will not budge any more than Putin; they are already turning the tide in Syria to the point that the West is being pushed to madness. And resorting to the same horrific lies as they have in the past few decades used to instigate all out war.
@Joe:but Geneva 2 is in jeapordy…
Yes, indeed, but the question now is how needs it more? I would argue that it offers possibly the last chance for the Americans to save face.
I will also add to your post the fantastic defeat suffered by the Empire and the IDF in Lebanon in 2006
Agreed 100%. 2006 was – literally – a Divine Victory and a tectonic shift in the balance of power in the Middle-East. The problem with the Anglos is that, as they so often do, they ended up believing their own propaganda and this is why they failed to fully measure the magnitude and quality of Israel’s defeat.
Kind regards,
The Saker
Clearly Putin means business. The West is finally paying a price for what happened in 1993. Had the West treated Russia decently in the Nineties Russia might have become an ally and friend of the United States as Germany did after the war. As it is a lot of karma is beginning to hit.
Meanwhile the Western economy is extremely vulnerable. The banks are sitting on trillions of dollars of ghost assets and the lunatic neoliberal mechanism of the Euro is locking half of Europe into depression. Some French experts are predicting a second crisis on the scale of what happened in 2008. The dollar’s role as global reserve currency will eventually be challenged at which point there will be a dramatic fall in the US standard of living and the Empire will find it much harder to finance its military machine.
My dream scenario would be for the BRICS to solve the currency problem by setting up an International Clearing Union on the lines proposed by Keynes at Bretton Woods in 1944 and inivite the rest of the world to join. This would have the potential not only to terminate the imperial dollar but also end the Third World debt crisis.
Germany, my friend, did not “become an ally”. Germany was and remains to this day, an occupied nation, by both the US and Israel (albeit different capacities).
Other than that minor point, everything you say is inspired.
Germany just as any other country, would have taken everything from everyone if they had won the war. If the U.S. was so bad, then why don’t they level each country and take it over when at war. Everyone would be speaking German or Japanese if they had won. the united states let them keep their countries, not take them over as most every war winning country in history has done before. A few hundred years ago, the winning country would have rid the earth of the losing peoples.
Right you are Noor. Germany is an occupied country. It’s sovereignty is restricted by a secret treaty and its intelligence services are controlled by the US:
Germany’s sovereignty restricted by US and allies, insider’s book claims
The former head of the West German Military Intelligence has issued a book revealing secret details of a 1949 US-German treaty, alleging America and its allies have been deliberately suppressing the nation’s sovereignty.
In Gerd-Helmut Komossa’s book “The German Card”, he claims Germany has, until now, been controlled by the United States and its allies, and was even viewed as a possible target.
I would say your article is pretty close with what many Syrian friends and I know. Oh and Yes.. Iran’s and Syria’s Mutual Defense treaty is in play.
Putin at the G8 has now not only sent the S-300’s but the S-400’s and the 24 Barrel missile launchers are on their way.
What most American’s fail to see is the lies of Ben Rhodes. He has a degree in FICTION writing and is the one who gave Obomba the “Kenetic war in Libya.”
He also lied about the UN access (Same lie about Iraq) Where the UN confirmed that Rebel’s used chemical’s not Assad. So they “Rhodes” lied about this.
In the WWII War trials in Nuremberg, 5 Journalist’s were HANGED for their War Propaganda. It is also time to hang a few NSA and other government officials here as well as those who propagate lies. That according to US Constitutional Laws, Arrests, Trials and Convictions.
Obama (My Cousin) Should hang for TREASON! 11 Years of Wars. 11 Years of Al Qaeda and the deaths of thousands of US Civilian’s and Military and the hundreds of thousands illegally invaded. This is to AID AND ABET the Enemy and now for over a year and a half Obomba has been arming those that killed American’s. This is Treason on top of the massive War Crimes.
I would say your article is pretty close with what many Syrian friends and I know. Oh and Yes.. Iran’s and Syria’s Mutual Defense treaty is in play.
Putin at the G8 has now not only sent the S-300’s but the S-400’s and the 24 Barrel missile launchers are on their way.
What most American’s fail to see is the lies of Ben Rhodes. He has a degree in FICTION writing and is the one who gave Obomba the “Kenetic war in Libya.”
He also lied about the UN access (Same lie about Iraq) Where the UN confirmed that Rebel’s used chemical’s not Assad. So they “Rhodes” lied about this.
In the WWII War trials in Nuremberg, 5 Journalist’s were HANGED for their War Propaganda. It is also time to hang a few NSA and other government officials here as well as those who propagate lies. That according to US Constitutional Laws, Arrests, Trials and Convictions.
Obama (My Cousin) Should hang for TREASON! 11 Years of Wars. 11 Years of Al Qaeda and the deaths of thousands of US Civilian’s and Military and the hundreds of thousands illegally invaded. This is to AID AND ABET the Enemy and now for over a year and a half Obomba has been arming those that killed American’s. This is Treason on top of the massive War Crimes.