Open Thread for Today

NATO says peacekeepers suffered 7-15k KIA plus additional 40K wounded MIA AWOL = 47-55k casualties. Peacekeeping forces are estimated to be 120-140k

Is NATO telling us that peacekeepers have suffered 55% to 45% casualties ?

At what point does Russia realize that the US is in complete control of the Ukrainian army and is conducting all Ukrainian offensives remotely? Putin warned against interference, but the US is interfering more and more each day and Russian casualties pile up. Time to deliver on the warning Mr. Putin.

Peak Oil

Once upon a time we discussed this topic on a dedicated website. I found Dmitry Orlov there, discussing its relationship to collapse and geopolitics.

Dmitry has been right all along, of course.

We’re at day, what 27 now ? I think it’s the occasion to point out several major misses in predictions :

– last week it was predicted that Mariupol would fall in 4-7 days (DPR, Intel Slava). We’re 9 days later and Mariupol show no signs of falling soon.
– since about day 3 of the operation many people, Saker included, have predicted encirclement in the East. Now my impression is that encirclement is far from done, there are still three roads linking the Eastern forces to Dnipro.

Sorry to sound sarcastic, it’s just that I’m horribly frustrated myself. It does seem indeed as if the operation has stalled and we’ve reached an equilibrium. the only way to break this equilibrium is to bring more resources and troops. I don’t know the Russian plan here but I sure hope they have one.

Key predictions I will follow until end of March :
– several forecasts, by the French army, by Defense Politics Asia, that the Ukrainians would run out of fuel and ammo and weapons somewhere at the end of March. If beginning of April I don’t see signs, I will slowly despair…

I must say that so far the one which has been closest to the reality was Strelkov, although he’s horribly depressing to read and far too pessimistic. However I can’t help but notice that Saker and Martyanov were way too optimistic at the beginning.

I seriously doubt progress reports from advancing Russian/LDNR troops would help the defeatist mindset of those armchair generals who are showing “frustration” with the unattained goals of the Russian/LDNR armies taking Mariupol and not winning the war in a month, while blaming the Saker/Martyanov dynamic duo for making false projections, and lionizing Strelkov who believes he is the only “Napoleon” left in Russia.

However, the deliberate progress in the final defeat of the neo-nazi regime in 404 continues apace, Shoigu just reported to Putin the special operation is developing according to plan and on schedule. Allegedly, according to a Syrian news source, Russia aims to match the special operation ending with the annual celebration of victory over Hitler’s nazi hordes, on May 9.

Let’s hope for the best…

PS: Lots of good videos, map included. The Chechen brothers (may Allah bless them, protect them, and provide victory for them) are fierce and fearless, they are earning a glorious page in the history of the defeat of neo-nazis in 404.

https://voenhronika.ru/publ/vojna_na_ukraine/srazhenie_za_izjum_zakoncheno_na_ocheredi_kramatorsk_i_slavjansk_karta_boevykh_dejstvij_24_marta_vse_video_poslednego_chasa_2022/60-1-0-11699

The battle for Raisins is over – Kramatorsk and Slavyansk are next in line: map of military operations on March 24. All videos of the last hour (2022)

Yesterday, AFU reinforcements consisting of several battalions reinforced with tanks launched the last attacks in the direction of Izyum in order to unblock the remnants of the AFU units entrenched in the southern part of Izyum. The attacks were repulsed by the Russian Armed Forces and at the same time, Mount Kremenets (where the TV tower is located) was finally cleared-this is the main height in the region from which you can observe the movement of troops and direct artillery fire.

Ukrainian UAVs are constantly trying to hover over the Russian army, and air defense calculations are working continuously. Local reports indicate that the Ukrainian Armed Forces ‘ reserves left Lozovaya and Pervomaisky in order to stop columns of the Russian Armed Forces moving south. The APU actively maneuvers armored groups, and in some of them up to 16 tanks, the enemy’s barrel and rocket artillery works. (Repeated in the original)

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine decided to create a fortified area around Pavlograd to prevent the encirclement of the eastern front. Over the past five days, an artillery brigade and tank formations have been deployed here. About the fact that there is an accumulation of forces in Pavlograd, it has been known for a week. If the Russian Armed Forces implement the scenario of closing the boiler east of Pavlograd (say, in the area of Krasnoarmeysk), then the assembled forces in the area of Pavlograd will allow at least trying to deliver a deblocking strike.

A high-precision strike destroyed nine Ukrainian S-300s and four Buk-M1 missiles in the village of Danilovka, south of Kiev, the Russian Defense Ministry said. There the AFU had a base of the 96th anti-aircraft missile brigade. At the same time, it is not a fact that some of the destroyed air defense systems were fully operational.
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Lone Wolf

@Mats – the link was this

https://vz.ru/world/2022/3/22/1149639.html

“Now the level of desertion and surrender is very high among those Ukrainian brigades that were the first to come under the offensive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the DPR and the LPR. Ahead of all is the 53rd separate motorized rifle brigade (OMBR), the denazification of which was officially announced in Donetsk. Having lost contact with the command after the retreat from Volnovakha, the brigade began to roll back to the steppe to the north, suffering heavy losses. As a result, the servicemen of the 53rd brigade began to surrender in groups of 10 people, especially after the “Svidomo commissars” and commanders died or fled.

The fact is that over the past year, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been ideologically reformatted, in almost every platoon, “ideological”, they are also “Svidom” officers or sergeants from among the former National Battalion members, natives of Western Ukraine, or simply very ideologically motivated individuals, were introduced on the basis of rotation. If earlier the composition of some brigades or battalions could be homogeneous in origin (from one region of Ukraine), now there are practically no such units left, and ideological training was especially monitored at the level of special orders of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”

I think there’s something needing saying on the matter of the information war side of things, specifically the Russian information being completely drowned out by the Western infowar machine.

It is a true and obvious fact that it is so. But I think it’s somewhat inaccurate to say that Russia “lost” the information war with the Western media conglomerate. Truth of the matter is… Russia didn’t even intend to fight it, not in the same way the West does beyond token outbound messaging more for propriety’s sake than effect. It’s a war to which the Russian side effectively didn’t show up.
The “why” of it is simple: how could anyone expect Russia to fight it on even terms in the first place? It’s a contest between, on the one hand, the most monstrously overwhelming propaganda, infowar and thought control machine in history seeming like it’s come right out of dystopian fiction, that spans most of the world via US satrapies’ vassal media – from news to entertainment – parroting whatever messaging their masters put forward, as well as via the Internet and domination of its social network field… and on the other hand, Russia all on her own, in the position of a client of that infospace and not its overlord, held back by Atlanticist sympathizers who prevented or undermined decisive steps until the very end, and at its disposal is but a tiny fraction of the resources fueling the Western propaganda machine, resources already much needed elsewhere in Russia’s spending goals. And if that was not enough, the Western media stranglehold went on for many decades in much of that space, and brought up entire generations of people molded by them, their worldviews entirely built entirely upon, and out of, their thought control. How do you even compete with that? And thus Russia doesn’t even aim to.

What almost everyone – even some commentators I respect and alternative sites – simply does not get is that Russia does not really care about winning Western hearts and minds. There’re many reasons as to why – from the simple pragmatic calculus of allocating resources not on wooing Western citizens in a contest against a trillion-dollar media machine propagandizing them for decades, but on fortifying the media space at home and creating ways of protecting it against foreign domination (a finishing move in which we finally saw executed via the hostile mediacorps expelled and social media that chose hostility blocked); to the specifics of Russian cultural psychology that enshrines a belief in cold hard facts on the ground inevitably destroying any lies and falsification, which makes outbound messaging feel near-redundant to most Russians. Sure, Russia has/had its RT and Sputnik, but in truth, these always felt like token hobby horses or even national budget siphons – I fully share the Saker’s opinion of RT being annoyingly low-effort, in particular. Furthermore, Russians both common and powerful are not blind – they’re fully aware of the unbeatable disparity of means and respective positions in the media space, so even when they tried to get on the media game abroad, it always had a feel of “why are we even trying, there’s no point”.

That’s the simple truth of it – Russia, in both official and civil capacities, had long seen “international” infowar as a lost cause. It never truly tried to fight it. Sure, they’ll be more pleased if foreigners are not being hostile to them, but they’ve come to treat barely concealed or overt hostility as an inevitable status quo, and the value proposition of trying to sway them as completely unappealing. This is why the general media policy it adopted, which the Saker described very well in his essays on counter–propaganda, was and remains completely inward-oriented – primarily transmitting the Western anti-Russian propaganda to its own audience, well translated and uncut, to help impress upon them the foreign powers’ hostility towards them and cause them to rally together in its face.
And look at those facts on the ground now: we can say with certainty that this policy has by and large succeeded. Instead of wasting mountains of cash on, pardon my French, “trying to outpiss the wind” in the West, it used the West’s own hostile propaganda against it (Judo at its finest) to solidify a staunch defensive public opinion at home. Let’s be honest with ourselves – not even the best, most well-designed and convincing Russian information campaign in the West could compete against even the most base and stupid fakes concocted in any single Western media centre promoted throughout its media machine’s innumerable vectors; experience shows as much, with Russian outreach and information productions banned, deplatformed and prohibited from circulation, while the most paper-thin Western fakes (“Ghost of Kiev” anyone?) go viral globally and settle in the Western popular consciousness as if they were facts. Look even at many “alternative” sites my fellow readers are no doubt familiar with – see how many of them have swallowed the anti-Russian propaganda lines wholesale. Knowing this, Russia chose to focus on things that, it believes, matter more. Things like improving the army, working on self-sufficiency and building public support at home. And the sheer volume of Western hostility has been such that Russia did not even need to try propagandizing its populace much by itself, so it doesn’t really matter that their own counter-propaganda was not strong – the West did the job for them by itself.

So, no, I do not think saying “Russia lost the information war” is quite correct because this war is asymmetric in its tactics and objectives. In fact, I would even say that the West handed Russia a huge win on a silver platter – Western populations and even culture itself had already been steeped in Russophobia for many years, so their mad war-footing-like policies and proclamations have little added value at home, while in Russia they comprehensively destroyed all the work the West had done to undermine it, by completely destroying the reputation and positions of itself and its agents of influence. The simple undeniable fact of the West whipping itself up into a war frenzy is an incredibly powerful propaganda tool – not so much in the West as it is in Russia, not demoralizing the Russian people but instilling them with a bitter defiance and desire for a reckoning for all this unprecedented hostility, which the Saker also communicates well.

Does Russia have no “outward” infowar strategy at all? I wouldn’t say so either – it’s just that, as noted above, Russians believe facts always trump words. They intend to have the results of the war in 404 speak for themselves, in a “the king is naked” sort of way, showing shrill Western propaganda about its every aspect for the outrageous falsehood it is and destroying its reputation. Will it succeed? I personally doubt it will be as effective as Russia hopes – the Western infowar machine is just that strong, and will work overtime and put unprecedented resources into trying to obfuscate and deny those facts on the ground; Westerners will go on believing in the myths of cuddly-wuddly Ukraine and big bad evil Russia genociding their freedom. But – as I said before – Russians do not really care whether they do or do not. Russia has largely declared a clean break with the West culturally and psychologically, effectively “disowned” the Western societies. Westerners can believe what they like, they can accept truth or deny it, the only thing Russians care about is them not marching to war. And the only “packaging” they will offer them is sturdy coffins, if they do, as per the lyrics for Sacred War.
I wouldn’t say this policy is completely unfounded, either – as time goes on, cracks begin to form in the Western media wall, uncomfortable truths and evidence of sheer lies slip through. This will only progress further as the blowback from the West’s unbelievably suicidal policies sets in. And furthermore, this Russian tactic forces the West to waste a lot of time, resources and coverage on trying to maintain their propaganda façade, which they now cannot use to perception-manage their populaces’ discontent with other looming problems – like with the siege of Leningrad, they tie down Western media armies and prevent them from striking for effect elsewhere, greatly weakening the Western position overall.

In addition to this, there’s a special dimension, a sadder one, in which the same dynamic has taken place. Many predictions made much ado about the supposed tender feelings Russians have for 404’s population and how they’ll hate Putin for waging war in 404 and hurting them by collateral. What they fail to recognize is the legendary boorish hostility “svidomy” Ukies have been showering Russia with even long before 2014, and which turned into an insane deluge since, with the war sending them into crazed overdrive. And again, here the Russian info policy has been to give the demented Ukronazi screeching maximum coverage, so that every Russian knows of it. It is true that there are many families with relatives in Ukraine and Russia, but for the past 8 years many of the Ukie relatives high on Russophobic propaganda had disowned and forsaken their Russian kin and destroyed whatever familial bonds there were. Even before the war began, while Russians felt pity towards civilians, they were under no illusions of some brotherly loving people their government might needlessly hurt – they watched those “brothers” disown them and bay for Russian blood for 8 years straight, and put it into active practice in the Donbass (again, with Russian media giving their voices ample coverage). And since the war began, the Ukies’ own madness took care of the rest: Ukie TV news anchors and journalists howling on air about their desire to kill Russian mothers and infants and swearing to infiltrate nurseries to kill Russian babies, 404’s commanders boasting about deliberately maiming and torturing captives to death in live TV interviews, regular people who had acquaintances in Ukraine receiving streams of death threats and basest insults from their Ukie “friends” despite being mere unrelated civilians… These things are everywhere now, a constant point not just in Russian media but in everyday conversations too. And none of this is orchestrated by nefarious Kremlin agents or cooked up by Russian propaganda either – the Ukies very gladly did and are doing all this themselves, nobody was “pulling their tongues” as a Russian saying goes, Russian media merely reports on it and it’s all easily verifiable. That’s not even counting the “feats” of Ukronazi regiments in their final death throes that are now becoming publicized. So, does anyone really think there is any love lost for the Ukies among Russians now, after all this? Russians abhor war, yes, but they are not stupid – they’re not going to embrace pit vipers who claim brotherhood when it suits them only to attack when an opportunity arises. Russians ARE “anti-war” – but not by way of passively waiting for enemies to attack them, and rather by making sure the war is finished in the most comprehensive and final way possible, as fast as possible; si vis pacem, para bellum. For years Ukrainian media kept claiming they never want to be brothers with the Russians – they should’ve been careful what they wished for because they got it. They should not count on Russian pity and generosity to let them off the hook after all they’ve said and done, neither in terms of the combined-arms police operation that now destroys their ability to be a threat, nor in the eventual settlement they will have to face after the war. They made a not insignificant portion of the Russian society take them up on their word of “not being brothers” and turn away from them. By now quite a few Russians see them like they did the Vlasov traitors in WWII, as cowardly or mercenary turncoats who bought into empty promises of an absolute enemy – and those get no respect, pity or mercy. Ukies made their bed themselves, and it’s gonna be a very uncomfortable night.

Pardon the long, rambling post – I’m a lurker of this blog since 2014, but never commented before, just felt I have something to offer now.

I assume that the Satanists are providing their proxy forces in Ukraine with data from optical reconnaissance satellites. I don’t know if the Russian Peresvet laser system is capable of dazzling (or better yet, blinding) these satellites, but if so I hope it is being done.

Andrei, regarding repetitive strain injuries, see the books Somatics by Hanna and The Feldenkrais Method by Moshe Feldenkrais. The condition often involves tense muscles that do not relax, either because of mental stress, muscle imbalance, or neurological mis-training. Those books explain how to do neurological retraining. Positive effects can happen quickly, although tendonitis (caused by the muscle tension) needs maybe 5 days to heal. The concept is to identify the tense muscle, find the opposing muscle, and exercise that opposing muscle. Around the wrist, it is easy to determine the opposing muscle. Around the hip, it can be challenging.

Per Intel Slava Z, Looks like Mariupol has been completed cleansed as the head of DPR Denis Pushilin is already there. Can wnyone confirm this please!

Oil depot (Kiev) blown up:

https://t.me/anna_news/25861