Dear friends,
I am creating an open thread about the SMO in the Ukraine.
As a “primer” I recommend this machine translation of a Russian article:
Version two: https://vz-ru.translate.goog/news/2022/9/10/1176889.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
And, just to clarify, Sivkov (PhD in Military Sciences) is very critical of Putin and the Russian Military and while we can criticize much of what he writes, he is hardly a “flagwaver”.
Finally, please pay special attention to what he says in the last paragraph!
Next.
Thanks to some readers, I was informed that there is a very new blog out there:
So far, there are only two articles up, but both are very good (the blog is only ten days old!), so let’s welcome him and give him some visibility (please use your social media)!
Finally, a warning.
I am in contact with a lot of people and we are all observing the same thing: there is an ABSOLUTELY MASSIVE PSYOP operation being executed in support of the Kiev regime (and NATO and the Neocons). The Russian segment of Telegram is literally flooded with fake Russian channels all doing the same thing: trying as hard as can be to create a total panic. Sadly, this does have some effect, even amongst Russians who really ought to know better by now.
Over the past couple of days, this has affected our comments section too. We are all trying our best, but we all get tired and miss things. So I ask for your diligence.
I expect things to get a lot worse in the next 48 hours.
So, I beg for your patience if things go south in the comments section or if it takes more time than usual to moderate your comments.
As for myself, I do not plan to post any analyses until at least Monday. Why? Because 99% of the info currently out there is worthless trash and that I will therefore have to wait for the type of sources which themselves will wait for verifiable facts before making any statements. Besides, in 2 days things will hopefully become easier to ascertain.
I wish you all a very good week-end!
Andrei
Agree exactly !!
I can only say i hope Sivkov iz right if the Russian army pools this off then they are going not just to crush the Ukrainian army but the Western MSM narrative simultaneously.
The Ukrainian offensive in the Kharkov Region.
There are no western reporters in the warzone, and the Russian leadership does not give much information to the public, other than they have withdrawn troops from some areas.
We have Western reports from a Hospitalized Ukrainian Soldier and a Ukrainian Officer.
They both state that Ukraine is taking heavy casualties during the operation.
They claim that they are under heavy Russian artillery fire, so that for each 4 grenades they launch, they receive 20 Russian grenades in return.
They also claim that the coordinates they receive to fire at Russian forces does not hit the intended target.
Sources with knowledge of previous Combats in Donbass claim that Ukraine has been baited to launch the offensive, in order to lure the largest contingent of the Ukrainian Army into a cauldron, after which they will be surrounded and attacked by a major counter offensive of Russian aligned forces.
This tactics has succeeded in 2 major battles during the 8 year long war in Eastern Ukraine.
The first time the Ukrainian Army got caught in a Cauldron in Donbass; President Poroshenko had to sign the Minsk 1 peace agreement, for the release of the Ukrainian Army.
The second time the Ukrainian army got caught; President Zelensky signed the Minsk 2 peace agreement.
However neither Minsk1 nor Misnsk2 has been ratified by the Ukrainian Rada assembly.
To me it looks like Ukraine has now launched a Blitz krieg to strike as deep as possible into the Kharkov Region, without thinking about its supply lines from western Ukraine, or the possibility of being caught in a new Cauldron.
If the latest Ukrainian offensive is a trap, it would explain why the Russian command talks about retreats, in public, but are silent about what to expect next.
I believe that within 2 days that we will hear what is really happening on the ground.
In the meantime, people should take a deep breath before declaring a great victory for Ukraine.
Again hope you are right because right now what Sivkov says looks like fantasy.
possible, but when you look at a map there are two river systems in the area. Russia retreated to the Oskil River. The Ukraine forces had to cross a river east of the Oskil and are now sitting between these two rivers. Bigserge had posted a good simplified map in his recent post that shows this very well. That eastern river extends all the way to the Russian border. The military summary channel mentioned a few days ago that the Russians had not taken out any bridges in that eastern river. So the current scenario places Russians behind the Oskil and Ukrainians inside a natural cauldron between the two rivers and the Russian border… If Russia takes out all the crossings on that eastern river (someone provide a name please) the Ukrainian supply lines are cut, or at the very least hampered, and the trap snaps shut. With fall coming that river will swell and flow faster, becoming a harder obstacle to overcome, as long as it doesn’t freeze. So this area looks like a natural trap. Making it is quite possible that Russia just waited for Ukraine to enter the trap. Perhaps the reason why things stalled in that area for so long. Also possible that there will be a wait time now to get as much manpower and equipment into this trap. If that is the plan. The terrain looks suitable for it.
Strelkov said that the Russian army would start being defeated in autumn this year if Russia did not mobilize and take the war seriously. He said that Ukraine was just using cannon foder to defend the highly defensible cities while they were training and preparing offensive groups. Meanwhile Russia was slowly gnawing away at Donbas making no difference at all to the operational or strategic situation.
Most of panic inducing posts was not by people. Nevertheless it was effective
Get used to it, it will be only worse in coming years. Until we find solution, other than being offline.
Poroshenko was President during both Minsk agreements, he signed the first and sent former leader Kuchma to sign the second. Poroshenko is very guilty for todays situation, and should have to answer for it! As are his foreign handlers! Zelenski came on the scene much later.
Another very good blog: https://www.imetatronink.com/
Both two last articles are spot on.
…The decisive defeat of its Mother of All Proxy Armies in Ukraine, and that defeat’s indelible demarcation of the high-water mark of imperial expansion, will accelerate the already commenced transition of the planet to a multipolar, balance-of-powers paradigm such as characterized the world prior to the advent of American global dominance in the post-World War II era.
Simply put, it marks the end of the American empire.
And, as such, we are now at the most dangerous moment humanity has faced in the previous three-quarters of a century – very possibly in its entire history.
Now we will find out what the self-anointed Masters of Empire will do when faced with the impending loss of their dominion over the earth.
Something tells me they are highly unlikely to shrug their shoulders, wax philosophical about the whole thing, gather up all their military toys, and go home. To do so would signal to all their colonies and vassals that the jig is well and truly up; NATO will effectively cease as a meaningful and credible alliance; the European Union as presently constituted will quickly dissolve.
That said, I have no capacity to predict what the imperial powers-that-be will do at this pivotal moment in human history, nor can I confidently anticipate what the consequences of their actions will be.
All I know is that the moment of greatest danger in all our lives is now bearing down upon us. At some point – likely sooner than later – those who wield the power and control the levers of empire will make a move to preserve its dominion.
I am personally convinced they will fail – and abysmally so – but almost certainly not without leaving oceans of blood and mountains of ashes in their wake.
Prepare yourselves accordingly …
Gorgeous. The planet was in chains pretty much the whole of its existence. The axis of evil is always the same, for millennia. The Jig Is Up! I just hope…the Russians realize the life, God’s creation itself is at the crossroads.
The task is as big as the Universe. Time is Now. Fear not Death, for it is God’s gift.
Let it Rain, for You Shall not Pass.
@ Fear not Death,
As long as one has accomplished all that one needs to accomplish.
If not, fear the wrath of God if she knocks on your door.
You’re right, I think.
Losers always double. Saker’s right, we’ll know more and have better understanding pretty soon…and I agree, Mr N, I too expect it to get worse. What, precisely, would a nazi “double” be? I don’t like the answer I get. But it’s a sure thing they’ll double. Unless somebody stops them cold, fast.
I shouldabought a Geiger-counter…but it turns out the same. I note that propaganda telegraphs lies and truths too…over time and to a critical analytical, nay, cynical mind. Taken altogether the propaganda is a vast picture that betrays the lies and reveals the reality…”they” can’t back down…
I tried ordering a Geiger counter after the Fukushima accident. The first one turned out to be a musical device, the second never came (from Germany). Finally, about six months after the fact, the hardware store carried personal dosimeters for a while.
The takeaway is don’t wait until the crisis to get what you think you might need. Look into it carefully, and pick out something sensible.
Sure we all hope so but will Russia be able and willing to prevail in this gigantic struggle? I for myself have never been more confused by the Russian „tactic“ than now. To me Putin, Shoigu and Gerassimow watching military games at Vostok while at the same time a horrendous defeat is looming AMID lacking manpower in Ukraine is just beyond anything I can stomach (as a German). Sorry guys, but unless something is happening „in earnest“ (Putin !) next week I am done with the „ Traktor in chief“. May be Strelkow was right from the start in 2014 when he said that Putin will come to regret his decision to not follow through with liberating Donbas. In hindsight Stelkow was more right than wrong. Putin arrogantly gave the West 8 years to build up a war machine that the West is feeding day in and day out and he is sacrificing his people for his wrong assumptions and decisions. To my mind Putin is too weak to fully grasp the task before him. It needs a Stalin like leader whereas the Russians (!) – not the Americans – have a legalistically minded person at the top. Biden in contrast is completely ruthless.
I too wish that Putin were nearby, in Moscow.
But I guess the defense of Russia is more than a military operation.
Putin is a chess/judo master. Balnce, timing and power are required. Putin had to be patient for 8 years to prepare for WW3! Which is here already!
I agree with you 100%, the Russian military was where the Ukranian military is now. He had to build up the industry as well as the ‘army’ with modern weapons and tactics befor he could do anything.
The accusation is that Putin erred in not attacking in 2014. No, IMO, Putin knew full well that his armed forces were not yet at a status where they would have been able to successfully complete a Donbass “retrieval.” Instead, he had his people design and plan for the widely understood threats from the “West.” Just as the West spent eight years building up the Ukraine forces and infrastructure, the Russians were doing similar planning and buildup of their own. In my opinion, the Russians were far more effective and successful in their own preparations when compared to that done by the collective West. However, not being a legitimate military and economic “expert” we will have to sit back and watch what happens.
“..convinced they will fail…but almost certainly not without leaving oceans of blood and mountains of ashes in their wake.
LoL. They’re already doing that, though perhaps unintentionally. The ground is littered with their corpses, and bravado that stinks as much as the rotting flesh.
With confidence I can anticipate what the outcome of their evil, corrupt, and self-serving actions will be, already stated in the ‘good book:’ “the wages of sin are death.”
And they’ve bitten off more than they can chew, for a millennia now. It’s just a matter of time before the fat Na-Ze sings.
Philosophy for any tyrant was never a strong point. The jig is up.
Спасибо Андрей. Слава Богу за ваш блог!
An update from RF MOD…
🗓 Top News Today
◽️ Russian troops that operate near Balakleya and Izyum to be redeployed for reinforcement at Donetsk direction in order to reach preestablished objectives of special military operation.
🇷🇺 Servicemen of Izyum-Balakleya group of troops show their courage and bravery while conducting intense combats against AFU units. Footage of Solntsepyok heavy flamethrower systems and 2S-19 Msta-S artillery systems in combat action.
💥 High-precision armament of Russian Aerospace Forces has neutralised the headquarters of 5th National Guard Brigade, the provisional bases of the units from 92nd Mechanised Brigade and Kraken nationalist group deployed near Balakleya and Chuguyev (Kharkov region), as well as the command post of 54th Mechanised Brigade deployed near Ray-Aleksandrovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
📹 Russian Defence Ministry has published footage of Western MD Msta-B 152-mm howitzer crews destroying AFU armoured vehicles and fortified positions.
#MoD #TopNews #Russia #Ukraine
@mod_russia_en
It appears that the Russians are still doing what they have been doing the past couple of months: relentlessly grinding down the Ukrainian armed forces.
I just find it sad that the Russians had to expose so many liberated settlements by “redeploying” their troops out of the way of the Ukrainian offensive. While it will not change the outcome of the war, it will change the lives of the people who live there.
Yes, this to me is a great betrayal of trust. Even while it maybe a smart move defensively in military terms. It’s actually not showing enough care for the civilian population, whose lives and livelihoods appear not to have been meaningful enough for the allied forces/ Russia to defend. This will have consequences of it’s own in the region.
Allow me to do a simple reality check:
1. Russians move in random settlement.
2. AFU attacks
3. Russians retreat.
4. AFU do various war crimes over civilian population.
5. Conclusion: It is all Russian fault
Proof: “everybody” on internet said so! You didn’t even conclude anything, you’re been bamboozled. Following the same logic, you are guilty for being duped. Did you run into anyone that said something, anything, negative about Ukrainians DOING atrocities? I didn’t. Russians are guilty for leaving civilians to be massacred, those who do massacre are … unmentioned.
Ukrainian death squads are not natural disaster or, say, radiation. Those beasts are man-made, trained. Those who made them are guilty. The same who posses technology to hijack social networks. None of us can be guilty for being lied to, but we are responsible for consequences by doing nothing about it.
—
Attractive female walks in the bar, orders a drink and have a good time. Someone slips her a mickey, before you know, she is rape-drugged and violated by an gang. In an better world, gang would be castrated, bar owner arrested, and bar bulldozed. In your world, she is guilty for going into bar. And being attractive.
Leave that world.
—
I’ve noticed this new NATO-line springing up a lot ”what about about those civilians suffering at the hands of fascist death-squads”.
My sarcastic retort Ukraine is a vibrant, law-governed democracy its armed forces are heroic paragons who would never stoop to Nazi-like behaviour. Anyone saying otherwise is clearly a Kremlin troll.
Seriously though Russia isn’t responsible for Ukraineian war-crimes after all the Ukrs can choose not to act like beasts.
The effect of their beastlyness might frighten some who get exposed to it, but I dont doubt It’ll harden the resolve of the Russians overall and the DNR/LDR in particular.
Cost/benefit logic: Civilians – cheap. Soldiers – expensive.
Why should Russians protect enemy civies? Isnt that what Geneva Conventions are for? They will protect enemy civilians if it does not cost them and this is already more than NATO has ever done in their conquests.
I recently watched a go pro video of an American mercenary in Ukraine who had another American and French volunteer with him. They looked like they were doing recon activities all the while making it clear to the viewer they’ve had no military experience yet it turns out the one recording did volunteering for the Kurds and has been else where around the world. This thought of ‘’Why do they keep on repeating and acting like they have no military experience’’? Stuck with me. Also, he mentioned he has Circus 19 symptoms and forces and few sniff noises which I thought was interesting. The whole video just seemed like if they were found dead and the Russian authorities were to watch and gather the material off the GoPro they’d be led to believe these foreign fighters have no military experience and no connection to NATO. I’m starting to think otherwise that perhaps NATO are on the ground but the soldiers ‘left’ NATO because perhaps they had ‘circus 19’ symptoms so I’m thinking during the pandemic NATO probably enlisted a lot of soldiers under the disguise of circus 19 fears..thus they could deny any involvement as they discharged due to circus 19. In turn Russia wasn’t alerted by this disguised recruitment of NATO soldiers to be sent to Ukraine. My thoughts that all.
Interesting thoughts.
It is regularly reported that there are many mercenaries in Ukraine today. IMHO, the true mercenaries would have been discouraged and scared off a while ago. I am of the assumption that said mercenaries are actually NATO soldiers in Ukrainian uniforms. Their morale would not be low compared to many Ukrainian soldiers who felt let down by their leaders and were sent to the meat grinder. They would also be properly trained to fight and use western equipment.
Just my 2c.
Be mindful there are mercenaries on the Russian side also – the Wagner group being the main one. They have certainly not been “scared off”.
Scott Ritter interviewed a DPR commander who said Wagner works only for the Ru govt and are made up of the best of the best of former Russian soldiers. They aren’t exactly mercenaries, but agents of the Ru govt paid by the private sector. I look at them as a public/private partnership, like the ones US intel has perfected (think of the company Snowden worked for). Private enterprise usually gets better results than public.
I was about to write the same thing. Big difference having private Russian organizations with higher paid Russian soldiers doing official fighting than having NATO soldiers unofficially fighting in Ukraine, as they did in Yugoslavia.
What NATO are doing is like having the Chinese military wearing RF army uniforms… big difference.
Of course, the Russians would have planned for this course, hence, why they are committing a relatively small force.
I have also been thinking the same for some time,however how would they explain to their families what happened when they were turned into fertilizer?there must at least be hundreds dead.
They don’t explain anything. They express gratitude and condolence. Wars are very old activity. Dealing with families of fallen is rehearsed countless times in whole world.
In my country, when someone fake ignorance we say “He is acting as an Englishman”.
Please, when things are confusing, it is best to wait for the actors to speak; In addition, Russia has not given reason to believe that something is wrong. Everything is the most normal.
The Russians must be concerned about the long-range weapons in the hands of the ucronazis with which they are attacking civilian facilities and as they have said with the arrival of winter.
Even a Soviet defeat in that area has come to light, which is worth it after the occupation of Berlin.
Everything is the most normal.
Alas, no. There is a generalized freakout in many circles for two reasons:
1) the Russian side appears to have made mistakes (I said “appears” – we need to wait to know for sure, more about that on Monday).
2) The Neocon PSYOP is a huge tsunami which disconnects brains and aims at eliciting only emotions.
Let’s wait and see what really transpires from all this.
Saker, every day for months when I fire up the old phone, the first info up is the great victories Ukie has inflicted on Russia. A quick patter around the web and Ukie news is more like ‘projection’ and it’s them suffering the defeats……..and now, big Ukie blitz, not a peep, crickets, nothing. Weird shit.
Cheers M
You are the psyop!
I am in the dark like everyone but there are a few things that are clear:
1 Russia anticipated Empire’s strategy in Syria and successfully interceded with a minimal force
2 Russia anticipated empire’s strategy in Ukraine (post maidan) and did not allow the planned offensive to happen. So Russia successfully interceded with a minimal force in Ukraine also.
3. Russia anticipated empires strategy in Belarus and Kazakhstan (again, post maidan) and successfully interceded with a minimal force.
4 Russia caught Ukrainian advancing forces in cauldrons three times. Leading to Minsk 1 Minsk 2 and now the present situation.
5 NATO successfully sank the Moskva.
6 NATO supplies everything to Ukraine, and Russia does not escalate to total war. Russia clearly does not feel that total war would be in its best interest. Or rather, Russia seems to know that giving NATO total war will give NATO more domestic support.
7 Because of Bucha, Russia does not want to lose populated territory if it does not have to.
I think from these facts we can conclude that Russia does not get duped by imperial strategy or Imperial operations. Russia does not have a track record of “making mistakes”, but rather, a track record of anticipating Imperial strategy and gaming for it. Russia is not immune to NATO’s tactical tricks and NATO is quite capable of nasty tricks. Moskva is a big one. But Russia’s track record since Maidan makes it hard for me to accept that basic incompetence struck randomly against all likelihood. If we here on the blog we’re forewarned about the offensive buildup, it’s silly to presume Russia didn’t. Seeing the vulnerability of Ukraines advancing forces, the Ukrainian army’s resupply limitations, Russian air superiority, and Zelensky’s political overriding of military wisdom, I have to say that the probability of Russia “making a mistake” is low compared to the probability of Russia “seeming to make a mistake” in order to lure Ukraines offense out of its fortifications with no support. But a tactical retreat leaving friendly civilians behind who are doomed to enemy persecution is kind of another Moskva. Maybe the thinking is that Ukrainians will never have the opportunity to “de-Russify” Izyium because it’s a trap…. of course I am biased by my faith in Empire’s collapse but there is good reason to believe that Russia’s “regrouping” is BY DESIGN
Ps this community of compassionate warriors is good for my heart. Thank you
I think they are more interested in safely powering down the nuclear facility before a western shell actually hits it and does some irrepairable damage.
As the manpower leaves one region, the west scoots over to said location to do there best at making it appear as if they ran off some troops, rather than said troops moving to stop a humanitarian disaster about to be created by the west.
Re Kharkov:
It is very odd to see RF forces ‘melting’ in the face of the Ukrainian assault forces who seemed to have made remarkable progress without significant air support. No one seems to know the strength of the Ukrainian forces — MoA made an estimate of 5 brigades, or, for those keen on the flavour-of-the-day terminology, about 15 BTGs. He may be correct.
One phrase that caught my eye in RF MoD daily clobber report was ‘Russian troops that [sic] operate near Balakleya and Izyum to be redeployed for reinforcement at Donetsk direction in order to reach preestablished objectives of special military operation.’
https://t.me/mod_russia_en/4051
So let’s go back and look at the SMO’s objectives, one of which is to secure the Donbass republics. LPR been secured/liberated but DNR is still work in progress. The present fighting in the north is in Kharkov oblast, so the MoD statement makes a lot of sense.
Now, some people think this is a face-saving statement by the RF MoD but I think the Russians are just sticking to their aims and avoiding ‘mission creep’ which tends to result in diversionary actions not central to maintenance of the Aim and ultimately losing sight of the Aim. US/Nato are world champions at this — witness Afghanistan.
Reading Sivkov to wit: ‘diversionary maneuvers were carried out in order to “pull the AFU strike group out of the fortified areas,” ‘ I reckon the Ukrainians are in for a very nasty surprise not just in the north but also in the vicinity of Donetsk and perhaps Kherson in the next couple of days, especially if the forces — even if bolstered by regular Nato posing as mercs or newly-trained AFU just back from the UK — committed by the Ukraine in Kharkov are the best they have.
Keep in mind that another “stated objective” of the SMO is “the demilitarization of Ukraine,” which is a polite way of saying, “the destruction of the Ukrainian military.”
Now, as some observers have been hinting, if this whole thing is a gigantic setup of the Ukies by the RFA, (and one has to wonder exactly what is meant by RMOD statements like, “During the operation, the military has performed a “’number of distracting and demonstration activities imitating the real action of troops’, it added, without providing any further detail on said maneuvers.”
“Distracting and demonstration maneuvers imitating the real action of troops…”
Hmm. “Oh, Ukies, please don’t leave your dug in positions and move most of your best armor and troops into wide open killing fields where they are at the mercy of Russian air and artillery superiority, as well as Russian logistics advantages.
Of course, this sort of speculation could be nothing more than BS, but at least it offers an alternative narrative to the full court propaganda press the west is currently waging over this “catastraphic Ukrainian steamroller.”
The final paragraph of Sivkov’s piece explains clearly enough the meaning of “distracting and demonstration” activities:
Sivkov emphasizes that the diversionary maneuvers were carried out in order to “pull the AFU strike group out of the fortified areas.” “If this group would have remained in Slavyansk or Kramatorsk, how many would have had to” pick out ” it? And now it’s in the palm of your hand. Therefore, a whole complex of measures was carried out to mislead the enemy, creating the illusion that we have weak defenses in this area and allegedly there is no information about the preparation of the offensive. The enemy was misled about the location and actions of our troops, ” the expert added.”
This time real pro mercenaries: Academy pmc, equivalent Wagner.
Not amateurs coming for a safari, like the one from the 3 or 4 first months. Many died, many left.Last time I saw a report from MOD, +- 2300 (from 6800 at peak) were still active, probably not counting these academy.
> Stand Easy on September 10, 2022 · at 7:42 pm EST/EDT
> “It is very odd to see RF forces ‘melting’ in the face of the Ukrainian assault forces who seemed to have made remarkable progress without significant air support.”
The current tactics used by Ukraine do not need much air support, heavy slow artillery or anti-aircraft systems in the first stages. They chose speed, night operations, many decoys (to distort and trick sensors) and precision attacks behind lines, plus a lot of sabotage from roaming commando’s. NATO found openings in the Russian systematic organization using mainly distributed, “scattered” decentralized advances. It comes with a relatively heavy toll on the health or life of their soldiers though. This tactic assumes a time window to bring in heavier armaments to place in fortifications. Cleaning all these scattered pockets of troops remains time consuming. Perhaps it’s better to close the pocket off and reclaim the territory. Plus find a way to disable all enemy communication and internet links inside the pocket. In my view the lines with Elensky and NATO should be cut first and foremost. A fish keeps rotting from the head down…
By ‘air support’ I meant counter-air operations to prevent RF airforce from clobbering them from the air as happened to the HQ of two AFU brigades in Kharkov. By some accounts the AFU have already lost 4 000 dead in a space of three days, mainly from Russian air attacks — missiles launched by aircraft from as far away as the Caspian Sea — and artillery. Several logistics dumps in their rear have also been hit by RF aviation. Not looking good, actually, for AFU because they’re over-extending their logistics train.
Recently concluded Vostok 2022 exercise has also ‘warmed up’ around 35-40000 RF servicemen for possible service in the SMO. Nothing to stop Russian General Staff from employing them either for rotation or reinforcement.
Been itching all day for The Saker Thread (sounds like the holy trinity), to comment. Made do with MoA and what a field day the trolls/defeated are having. Those such as Chessmaster’s sarky Putin 50D comment. There’s a lot of pent-up frustration from the Enemy . . . . . . and who can begrudge them ‘their 15 minutes’, misguided or not, their side are being battered, day in day out, week in week out, month in. . . .
What’s more surprising is the ‘alleged’ despondency, even anger of the Faithful. Everyone commenting should at the very bare minimum have read Sun Tzu. Losing a battle, regrouping (lick your wounds) to emerge victorious having gone through such adversity only strengthens your resolve to inflict the ultimate defeat on your enemy.
We’ll have all the situational details shortly and great or not so great, we stand by Russia/Donbass/Decent Ukrainians and pray for NATO’s ultimate defeat.
Giving the delusional b@st@rds a little hope may lead to their undoing, thinking they can and are winning all of a sudden. Run out in the open to pursue your pursuer just makes no kind of sense. They say never underestimate your enemy which the west usually does and usually gets away with it in countries with no military to speak of … and still they lose.
Worse, I think, to overestimate their own capabilities and cherishing a notion of a morally bankrupt ideology to pull them through. We’ll win because we are us. LOL. Have a good weekend.
I noticed (in RT headlines- I am in the EU and Fuhrer Ursula does not allow me to tread the article) that Ze is crowing that the Ukies have gained 2000 square km in this counter-offensive ie 0.3% of Ukraine territory.
And when they lose that, Ze will brag:
“AFU made tactical retreat from less than 1% of Ukrainian territory.”
@WTFUD
“What’s more surprising is the ‘alleged’ despondency, even anger of the Faithful”.
I too was in dismay with the seeming success of this Ukrainian counteroffensive. The psychological effects on pro Russia supporters with the Russian retreat from Izyum is immense, and that’s an understatement( I am not sure how this will affect the Russian population’s support for Putin – but I reckon it will if similar ‘failures’ recur or this counteroffensive opens the door for even more Russian defeats, say in Donbass itself) . We can see the change in tone in say the Duran, other channels even avoid the topic altogether- these are all coping mechanisms. I think here are some of the possible manner of thinking that contribute to the shock , anger, perhaps frustration of the ‘faithful’ – especially those who are not military experts/have no military background (based on introspection of my own emotions ):-
1. The pro Russian narrative ran counter to the dominant pro Western narrative in cyberspace and MSM. Before this counteroffensive, Russian verifiable military successes was a psychological bullwark – this has collapsed with the massive triumphalism and jeering at Russian “weakness” by MSM and other Western cheerleaders/trolls commenting furiously in pro Russia channels. These trolls are out in full force to capitalize on this ‘victory’. It is like a loss of trust in the previous pro Russia narrative with a current reality that seems to fit(‘confirms’) pro Western narrative. It is understandably human to snap at this relentless psychological attacks. Most of us are not cool headed rationalists at heart, even with the most cool headed amongst us.
Regaining that trust from these angry ‘faithful’ is going to be very difficult. They felt betrayed , being ‘lied’ upon by pro Russia sites about the strengths and weaknesses of Russian military Vs Ukraine military(doesn’t matter if it’s true or not).
2. Izyum was touted as town of strategic importance to the Russian SMO. That has been drummed into our heads,say from the likes of the Duran in videos after videos. Russian triumph in that area was often used as an example to counter pro Western narrative of a “winning” Ukraine. That it fell very quickly , without much Russian resistance was a psychological shock. “If this town was so important, why did it fall to the Ukrainian military so swiftly? And if pro Russia sites claim Russia knew of this possible counteroffensive , why has Russia not prepared to defend this important town?” . They will come up with ‘logical’ inferences to ‘explain’ this ‘ loss’- “Putin is ‘too soft’ and docile to the West”, “Russia should have committed more troops”, “how come Russia air power and intelligence , if these are so great, ‘failed’ to locate Western weaponry like HIMARS and destroy them” , ” Russia should have done a shock and awe like US did – the SMO was a failure from the start” etc. This probably has more effects on those who prefer a harsher /hard-line stance on the US/collective West – I myself am one : hence my(being ethnically Chinese and pro Russia, pro China ,pro multipolarity) occasional ‘frustrations’.
3. The gains by Russia were hard fought and took a long time. The gains in the Donetsk area had been excruciatingly slow. This is in contrast to the speed of which Izyum and surrounding areas fell. Thus ,the optics run counter to the narrative of a weak and weakening Ukraine military (due to massive loss of troops and weapons)Vs a more powerful Russian military with time on its side , making slow but meaningful gains…this was the predominant narrative in most pro Russia sites such as the very influential ‘The Duran’. Russia appears weak and Ukrainian military strengths seem to have been underestimated in such an optics.
4. Majority of those in the cyberspace are non military people whose only understanding of military affairs are second hand accounts in books or YouTube videos by self-proclaimed “experts” ,or even computer games on warfare, or worse still war movies/Netflix, or even worse – American ‘flatten the country to dirt wars’ in Iraq , Afghanistan etc. With these bad standards as references , they would not truly understand war strategies nor the intricacies of war operations although the likes of this site and Brian’s New Atlas channel painstakingly try to explain. We are generally in an instant result , instant gratification era. Majority doesn’t understand that wars are not always winning , that there could be serious defeats even, or that errors do happen, and that sometimes retreats are needed to ultimately win the war. Deception, feints etc are useful manoeuvres in warfare and neither the West/Ukraine military nor the Russian military are going to expose their strategies and tactics. What we see even in this site and others are inferences , at best educated guesses,based on heavily propagandized info from both sides and “battle maps ” which surely cannot tell us the true and complete situation.
5. I think many Pro Russia sites became pseudo or even true ‘echo chambers ‘, probably not by intent. This is psychological and understandable. People supporting a side psychologically need reinforcements of their beliefs in the side they chose. The idea is that Russia is ultimately invincible and all weaknesses of Russian strategies (if any) are dismissed as not significant to the ultimate result. Concerns of some of the ‘faithful’ of these supposed weaknesses were dismissed. In my view, this is a problem – notwithstanding the true problem of ‘ concerned trolls’. Thus, faithful with concerns and concerned trolls are blended as a group – and the latter is always keen to convert the former to the “Russia is a lost cause” narrative. Pro Russia sites dismissive of the former actually help the latter.
Personally, after several days of dismay and copium, I have accepted current realities. I will continue to support Russia because to support the morally bankrupt, woke,progressive , anti civilizational West is ideologically impossible for me. That said, I am also a realist . I do think that Russia is militarily superior to Ukraine and should ultimately win this conflict. But I cannot vouch for the certainty of this outcome. In history, “weaker” forces had ‘unexpectedly’ triumphed over “superior” forces. This has always been my thinking. And this is a proxy war of Russia Vs NATO in actuality . I don’t want to dismiss US military , although the US is in decline . This counteroffensive should remind us never to underestimate the US/West despite their moral bankruptcy and ideological fixations. In fact, ideological obsessions are drives that can band even debauched and decadent elites to do unthinkable things.
Let’s see what Russia will do next. I am hopeful and think most likely The Saker and The New Atlas analyses are correct. Psychologically prepared though, for any eventuality.
Just my views.
@Sinotibetan
Each of your statements has been answered by Andrei in his last two blog posts.
I recommend you to watch the last 2 videos of Soothieex12 YT channel that’s run by a professional military analyst, and The New Atlas YT channel
You’re parroting the pro-NATO propaganda here even if you’re sincere.
@Biggus Dickus
Don’t get me wrong . I don’t buy these pro NATO propaganda.
I am just saying that these are the possible thinking behind the “anger” of the faithful. You are correct that these manner of thinking are the effects of pro NATO propaganda. I have already said that the Saker’s and The New Atlas analyses are most likely correct. These pro NATO propaganda did rattle me initially and I am sure they would be behind some pro Russian people freaking out. That’s what I meant . I am NOT giving credence to these thinking as the reality of the current situation of the SMO . I support Russia and still think Russia will triumph in the end.
My comment was a response to WTFUD ‘s surprise on the despondency and anger /freaking out of some of these pro Russia folks.
We should not be surprise at such reactions . Was merely stating my views on the possible psychological underpinnings for their reaction based on my own initial reactions too. The Saker and New Atlas have already provided succinct explanations and so if these people are still freaking out, the onus is on them.
Regards,
Sinotibetan
As I found my own thinking and feeling addressed in your long post, I thank you for that analysis. Anyway, what matters is »on the ground« only, and we shall see that soon, I guess / hope. Plus: whatever the outcome of SMO — our lifes in Europe are upended already …
I recommend you follow Strelkov so you will have any idea of what is going on.
Why don’t you and other Strelkov fans follow him into battle? Your flawless victories will silence all those disbelievers in his military genius.
Strelkov has gone batshit crazy and is desperate to be noticed.
Listen to him and you will be certain not to get anything…
Sinotibetan
It has been discussed in MSM for the last two months that AFU troops have been training in the UK and Germany at military bases, NATO bases in Germany.
About three weeks ago the MSM and alternative sources were discussing the positioning of troops and materials in the South to prepare for an AFU counterattack.
If one was to ask, from a strategic point of view, which is the most valuable positions to be held, Izyum or the South, I would argue it must be the South. The land bridge for Crimea, the ability to project force along the littoral territory of the Black Sea towards Odessa and the South western border.
Decisions need to be made based on resources available and with key objectives in mind. A restructuring of forces around Izyum and the river systems there is easier to facilitate and taking terrain into consideration, coupled with the stand off weapons available to the SMO troops gives far more time to reposition other troops to minimize the accession of territory that has already been gained.
The opportunities for Russian offensives in other areas of the north and east area are also far more numerable. Personally I am simply going to be waiting to see what develops from here. At some stage the AFU and mercenarie’ will come to a halt at some stage due to the territory in front of them or to await for lines of supply to catch up. When this happens all the AFU longer range weaponry will most likely caise a significant amount of damage to all these newly trained and equipped troops.
Ashas been ssaid time and time again. Men matter, machinery and territory is all a matter of priorities and future plans.
The MSM will have some feel good news. Although I am yet to hear anything about AFU forces casualties in that same MSM.
@Ad
Thanks for your point of view. I am not a military person but I agree with you : wait and see what develops from here.
Western MSM psychological warfare has certainly won, though. The Duran and even Moon of Alabama basically freaked out. This Ukraine conflict is a NATO/US/collective West proxy war with Russia and is part of the larger Euro-Atlantacist Vs Eurasian bloc conflict. We shouldn’t expect the SMO or whatever plans Russia have in future to be “smooth sailing” with no ups and downs. It is a war in all but in name. While I can understand and am not surprised at the freaking out of some Pro Russia folks , it looks like Western psychological warfare had worked well on some of them, and the virtue of patience , seem to be very scarce nowadays. The psychological effects seem to be working especially well for “hardliners”, who are prone to disappointment because they want Russia to punch Ukraine/NATO/US hard and win all the time. I had(still have) such tendencies – my posts in the Saker earlier when SMO started showed this psychological malady – so I am not surprised “hardliners” may be among the worst affected emotionally.
We shall see what Russia will do next. Casualties in Ukraine military are huge and I read somewhere that Russia has struck the electricity grid in Ukraine. So, likelihood of a Pyrrhic victory for the Ukrainians in this battle is very high.
Will wait for The Saker’s and New Atlas’ Sitreps.
…alleged’ despondency, even anger of the Faithful…Well, I am frustrated, to some extent, and nervous, too. Not anger regarding ru soldiers, NCOs, officiers in the front. But I thing top brasses strategist and people in establishment are not at such a perfect chees, pardon chess brains as we are to supposed to believe, there is a sometimes little of clarity and again it seems to me that glasnost took a nap. Though I know this is a war and something must be left not made public.
this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
When are we going to see the front page articles from The Saker, Pepe Escobar and so on that the military malpractice of the last 6 months will lead to the return of the End of History, but not liberal democracy as Fukuyama hoped, but the real end of history that of Technocratic Oligarchy?
Ukraine now has the larger and better equipped Army in the field. The ethnic regions of the Russian Federation are salivating to become independent and get the support of the West. Russia as we have known it is in peril and so are the dreams of an alternative to Technocratic Oligarchy.
And not just Russia will fall, but also Islamic Iran and Communist China. Xi is a dope who should have sent 10 million troops to Ukraine in March when it was clear Putin couldn’t handle it. Fortunately the defeat of Technocratic Oligarchy will come, but with Something New.
Only the new can fight the new.
¿Seguro amigo mio, sólo lo nuevo puede luchar contra lo nuevo?
Ecclesiastes 1, 9-11
What was it before? The same as it will be! what do what has been done? The same thing to do! And there is nothing new under the sun! There is nothing that can be said: “Look, here is something new!”, because that already existed long before us. No one remembers what was before, nor will anyone born afterward remember what is about to happen.
The turnip truck one may have just fallen from is not an icon or the epitome of farm vehicles.
Game is over
There is no ‘new’. This is the end.
The technocrats won. For ever. every base covered.
The plan will go on as scheduled.
Building a woman God has been long scheduled and has yet to show a home plate score, but just whos schedule is being planned? And how long could it take??
Forever has been a mighty long time that has yet to see its end fall.
Europeans fall for Mongol “retreats” repeatedly. Russians learned the lessons of maneuver warfare in decades and centuries past.
When I look at the current battle these are facts that I look at:
RA knew the offensive is coming. AFU troop build up was obvious. RA should and would have prepared.
RA could strike at those troop buildup to disrupt the preparation but they did not do that. To me RA wanted and allowed the offensive to occur.
With the might of RA artillery, missiles and air power (tactical or strategic) the offensing AFU brigades could easily be deterred, damaged or annihilated, but RA didn’t go all in to do that.
The supply of AFU comes in from North and had to cross a river. RA didn’t destroy the bridges so AFU supply and troops may continue to pour in the pocket of battle.
There are known large RA army grouping in Northeast but they are not attacking.
More territories were vacated yesterday from South so AFU can move in to occupy.
The southern edge of the battle pocket is another river. AFU must cross that river to move further. Is that possible? Think about the 155mm shells, Iskanders and F 500s near by
I personally see a RA Psyop creating FUD about RA’s defeat which encourages AFU to go all in with all their reserves into this battle pocket. Only then the northern river will be cut and pocket sealed. I see total annihilation of AFU grouping in coming days.
this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
The retreat does appear to be very quick – but I think you are overestimating the tactical and strategic ability of the RA. The opening few weeks of the war showed this with the disastrous government-felling attack on the capital, promptly abandonned for consolidation in the east.
Don’t underestimate the losses of RA ammunition stores that have been explosively documented over the past months, plus the rumours swirling about purchases of ammunition from North Korea. That may be playing a real role here in preventing the RA units from defending effectively at the moment.
Any purchase from NK would be more to support NK economically than to “help” Russians.
NK has no stuff to sell to Russia for oil they need. But they have a LOTS of arty stocks for war that never came.
If I was RU, I would not hesitate to support NK in this way. It is a win-win for both sides.
The only prerequisite is the “way to use” those old stocks. And there is a plenty of that at the moment.
So do not look into it too much. If it comes to pass, it will have a signifficantly positive effect on the NK while not much of it for Russia.
Russia is taking a strategic approach. North Korea (NK) has about 50% of the world’s rare earth (REE) deposits. There are other large mineral deposits in NK but this is the biggie
Rare Earth Discovery Puts North Korea on the Map
https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-discovery-puts-north-korea-on-the-map/
These music videos are a good reminder or teacher to us westerners what the Russians have fought for and through
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KoSD7Xnr4rk&t=191s
It really does kinda hurt my heart, and make me somewhat sad that so many people, even at genuinely respectable and long term credible blogs like this one and MOA either actually are zombie like empire trolls, or simply unable to see the forest for the trees?
The truth is none of us know the full truth of what’s happening.
I do have faith however that Russia shall not be defeated. The rot of the west is terminal. Such disordered pathology has already died…
Just momentum left as the parts and peices disintegrate into chaos from which something new shall emerge.
The next 8-10 years will redefine human existence.
It is over. All the bases now covered.
The Technocrats won.
The battle already ended in Jan 06, 2021. This is like the whites fighting the reds in 1918-22.
Learn to live under the technocrats.
Despair is a sin and who in the world use sin as a weapon? The destroyers of hope shouldn´t be granted such easy access to your mind.
In plain words, stop crying like a woman and fall for every plot that the Cult pushes your way.
> It is over. All the bases now covered.
> The Technocrats won.
I hope you do understand that if it turns out that P=NP, their “win” will turn out to be the most arrogant fall in the history of humanity.
And that is just one of the several mayor pitfalls “they” must avoid. :)
Regis Tremblay had Scott Ritter for an interview and it was incredible. Anyone who doesn’t watch it because Ritter spoke of NATO’s decision to remake the Ukrainian military into a full-fledged NATO army as a “gamechanger” should get past it and pay close attention from 13’45” in to the end. Because Youtube scrubbed Tremblay, I watched on Rumble.
Old news. NATO (the US) has been training and arming Ukraine since at least 2014 and likely long before. Russia has known who their really enemy is since the early 1990’s. Ritter’s comments (Ukraine penetrating to the Russian rear, “gamechanger” MiG 29s with HARM missiles, etc.) are way out in left field.
Tomorrow is September 11, better known in America as 9/11. A loss on such an anniversary would be devastating for the establishment government. I thought patience was one of the great Russian strategies…?
Tomorrow is a Holy Day for Neocons. They executed 911 with Cia, Mossad, and Dual Citizen Israelis taking the lead. Neocons would be happy to kill Russians or just kill their Nazi stooges under their command. Neonazis are degenerate stooges that are too dumb to organized more than a BBQ and a tatoo parlor.
If you want to know the full story about 9-11 and the players here is a link that lays it all out. In America we refer to it as nuclear 9-11. Still no justice.
https://www.veteranstodayarchives.com/2015/01/12/mapping-911-fort-lee/
I don’t know one way or the other on who has the upper hand in the “offensive”. However the Russian speaking citizens living in the abandoned settlements by allied forces face torture and abuse as retribution by ukronazis.
Some videos for today.
RT gains access to Kherson frontline positions:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/MURAD-Kherson:9
DPR forces eliminated Kiev regime sabotage group equipped with bombs:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/expl_don_1009:d
Russian TOS-1A Solntsepek fires at enemy positions:
https://rutube.ru/video/9fe0fae69873a539826125acb92e209e/
Russian Msta-S self-propelled howitzers pound the enemy:
https://rutube.ru/video/a8f268ca5901e6bdc9bf473d10b90667/
Kiev regime troop captured near Izyum:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/2BULKVPk7R60/
Kiev regime tank hit near Avdeevka:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/Uhk6aDASu3k4/
DPR Sparta battalion drone bombs Kiev regime trench:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/gMySGPlZ57d4/
DPR army destroys enemy position near Donetsk:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/jid1bj6X0PXW/
Let’s say that pulling out is some type of 5D chess on behalf of the Russian of the MOD and it actually works out.
They have still abandoned a lot of civilians who cooperated with them in Balakleya, Kupyansk and Izyum. What will SBU do to these people who worked with them? Got Russian passports? Sent their kids to summer camps in Russia?
Russia promised the people they are in Kupyansk to stay. Who will cooperate with them even if they do come back? Who will continue working with them in Kherson or Zaparozhye if they can be abandoned at any moment?
I am originally from Kharkovskaya oblast and I am afraid to think what is happening to my zemlyaki now at the hands of the Ukrainians.
Well, an observation of a nincompoop nobody here.
I have little, actually none, experience in military matters, having been kicked out of the army of my birth country after a few days due to inability to follow orders.
But, looking at the development of the salient over the last couple of days, aside from a sever clenching response due to being a “roosky” supporter and a military imbecile, but I digress.
Looking at the salient, I though, how clever, a cauldron in wording constructed by the victims themselves.
Reading Big Serge (your linked new blog) I came across something which reinforced that thought.
Serge stated: “I do not believe this is an “ambush” per se by the Russian army. The word ambush implies that the Russian forces were already in position, drawing the Ukrainians into a specific maneuver plan where they could be attacked from prepared positions.”
Well, Rooskies are cunning, remember Boris the Blade (Snatch with Jason Statham and Brad Pitt), and by NOT preparing (on site) anything, nobody would have any advanced info about any ambush. Bringing in reinforcements takes as much time as we are witnessing right now. Most likely way less time than it takes the UFA to withdraw out of their heroically gained advance.
Good chance to gain some “leading edge advanced” US overpriced “best” armaments, capture some dudes with inside information, and neutralize an important number of “first quality, highly trained, prime fighting force” adversaries.
Not saying the above is the case. But as Andrei Martyanov always says, “Nobody knows what the Rooskies are actually planning” my guess might be as good as the next one.
Great update, excellent links, Big Serge especially.
Muhamad Ali used a similar tactic, he called it “rope a dope”.
If this is not big victory for Ukies then it would be terrible disaster for them. This is the nature of very risky offensive.
It’s too early to tell if this is, in fact, a loss for Russia. But if it turns out to be, Questions need to be asked. Did this happen because Russia is stupid? Did this happen because Russia is weak? Hell no.
Therefore the only possible explanation would be that Russia allowed it to happen. Maybe it’s a judo move. Maybe Russia wanted a high profile reason to go shock and awe. Maybe Russia benefits economically from a prolonged war. Maybe it’s time to think outside the box.
All I can do is try to apply commensense to some reported activities… like the massive wave of UAF battalions deployed to the front… yet the RAF did not destroy these groups with air power given their capability and capacity to do so.
This appears (to me) to be a deliberate ploy given previous motives.
The whole mainstream media narrative smacks of sheer mendaciousness and desperation, to me anyway. I could be wrong, time will tell, but to me it seems the west needed to trumpet some kind of success however small at whatever cost. Europeans are facing a $2 trillion drop in disposable income. uncompetitive manufacturing and a $1.5 trillion bailout of their utility companies, and that’s just for starters.
The thieving Russia and Eastern Europe experienced in the 1990s is now to be visited on the EU and the UK. Mercedes, BMW, and Siemens will be snapped up for pennies by Black Rock which will then switch production to China and India who have cheaper labour and cheaper energy.
The fog of war is so thick now that it is impossible to discern even whether Russia still holds Izyum.
Breath-in, breath-out. Trolls included (on all sites)! we’re all ‘Armchair Reckoners’ with varying depths, ranges, and partial fields of personal and professional attention and information, not a one of which ‘knows’ the RF status, plans, intentions or adaptability – save for the broad ‘wrap’ of ‘Demilitarize, Denazify, Defend Donbass’.
The truth is none of us knows or will know the full truth of what’s happening. Everything else for now is varied individual or group degrees [including ‘NATO’, RAND, RUSI, et al.] of reckoning, speculation, guessing, jig-sawing (partial pieces and projections of our own what’s supposed to / should be / ought to logically / if only / etc would happen), ‘see it this way’, ‘see it my/our way’, etc.
This ‘war’ is being simultaneously fought on several [ at least three] complex and interacting fronts (stress interacting):
– Geopolitical (killing the empire and its ‘resets’),
– Neopolitical (building a new, global (except for the ‘West’ at present) mutual currency, trade, financial, sovereign, political etc. reality [BRICS+, SCO, EAEU, and all the stuff Pepe and others point out],
– SMO [‘Demilitarize, Denazify, Defend’]
– Circumstance [weather, ‘moves’ (like US/EU/UK elective hara-kiri [ritual suicide by disembowelment] sanctions), at least 75% of the planet(!) is (increasingly and visibly) voting and moving to assist Russia, Et al.
So many posters almost everywhere are very focused on the short-term status of SMO ‘moves’ or on longer-term (Feb-Sep) apparent SMO developments without even an ‘inner’ ear as to actual RF thinking, intents, planning, execution, and re-thinking.
I echo many others like ‘WTFUD’ (“We’ll have all the situational details shortly and great or not so great, we stand by Russia/Donbass/Decent Ukrainians and pray for NATO’s ultimate defeat.”) and ‘Robert Michael Hope’ (“I do have faith however that Russia shall not be defeated. The rot of the west is terminal.”).
And as ‘Cara VanNetta’ earlier reminds us, tomorrow is September 11, better known in America as 9/11. A Russian strategy echo(?) as well as an ancient biblical one (Ecclesiastes 9/11 [KJV]):
“11 I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all.”
Clear skies RF
“We haven’t even begun” said President Putin (I think he meant “we have barely begun”). The big-picture perspective of Russia’s leaders is all-encompassing, knowing they are going up against determined “full spectrum dominance” by the hegemon empire.
‘Armchair generals’ criticize Putin & Shoigu & Gerasimov for overseeing Vostok military exercises while supposedly “ignoring” the UA Kharkov offensive – whereas probably the commenters don’t realize, those exercises are critically important preparation for a far bigger conflict yet to come in the east, that will engage the full range of naval and air fighting resources in concert with other countries, once the SMO has vanquished the NATO proxy forces and secured the western borderlands.
Yes, it has been interesting reading a few sites, so many new names have popped up essentially waving the Ukraine flag. It is certainly possible mistakes were made, however it is too early to know, agree that we all (on both sides) need sit back and relax for a for days and see what transpires. Don’t see the inevitable outcome changing though.
I think the general staff of the RAF have promised VVP the least number of body bags possible
Much of this retreat was planned as troop concentration and movement can be observed. Where the enemy miscalculated is RAF will load up with it’s forces to fight this one and who knows what plans the Ukies had there? Get a NATO bombing run in? or something to cause mass RAF casualties?
Now they are caught with their pants down and this may be a cauldron in the making. Once you herd them all in with a river on one side a highway on the other, its a slaughter house
The Ukies can thank NATO and USA for being true to their word. Fight this war to the last Ukie
Patience, people. There is absolutely no need to panic. War is dynamic and never plays out in a one directional pattern. With today’s military surveillance technology it is ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE that Russians are not alerted of this so-called counter offensive in advance during its preparation stage. Anyone who disputes this please cite your underlying theory.
What is the grand strategy of the RF central command on this we can just wait and see.
I would like to report that here in Hong Kong far far away from the battlefield, the news media and internet news forums and blogs are 99.99% flooded and poisoned by western BS narratives. The Saker is one of the very few places where I can still get real insight on what is actually taking place.
I read some BS on Telegram the Russians thought the 30k troops were heading to Zaporizhzhia, that city with the nuke plant not quite halfway between Kherson and Kharkov. It said the Russians thought this because had been the plan. It claimed this was inside info from the UFA in Kiev that Zelensky overrode it at the last minute and his impetuousness caught the Russians by surprise and thus was a kind of accidental genius. It claimed the leak was a highup person who had tried to stop the last minute switch. Ah, the smell of manure in the morning.
Also I don’t know if anyone mentioned the “3rd army corps Russia” news in the last week or so . MSM from Ukraine MOD sources,some of it that the corps had a setback and would not even be in Rostov until November , then a few days later some had been spotted around Kherson, despite have been formed in the North and supposedly not ready. Both ‘not ready’ and ‘in Kherson’ meant not going to bother any Kharkov action.
Finally, in chess sometimes you leave a pawn unprotected, called a ‘poisoned pawn’. Sometimes for concrete reasons and other times you just know vaguely the opposition would be dumb to snatch it and you don’t calculate at all. You just leave it there and only react afterwards. In most of the latter situations the game gets tougher than it should have been but it turns out it had been a poisoned pawn, your instincts had been correct.
ZE being 100 % under UK influence, it is probably UK who forced ZE to switch to Kharkov iso Zapo. As here Macron is crazy about some ‘peace’ but via a UN peace mission to demilitarize( lol ..he uses RU term now) the NPP.Macron called ZE today about that issue. Barbiebock went to Kiev for the very same reason.Brits don’t want any cease fire even for the NPP(which is a pretext of course), they already voted a 300 billions bailout of energy bills till the end of 2023.Macron, as in the eurozone, does not have such money, Germany not for very long, all other EU countries are almost bankrupted.
Many elections coming this fall, most important in Italy 09/25( second RU gas customer in terms of money, after Germany). Austria will also vote soon and some smaller countries, it may change the eco pro war situation a bit..or not?
Expect all kind of attacks around the NPP, probably their next target(again).
Big Serge indeed was well worth reading. Now that Ukie best troops are out in the open the Russian counterattack will be devastating.It is sad about all those civilians in areas the Ukraine recaptured. I pray that the SBU and Nazis do not run amok. Still, in the Big Picture of moving from American hegemony to a multi polar world, it was unlikely that the Russians would not get their hair mussed.
Brother Ranzam Kadyrov at his best, calling a spade a spade.
He is in the thick of things, and when he said “mistakes have been made,” he can speak with authority.
He has committed thousands of Chechen brothers to this cause, he is responsible to bring them home, safe and sound.
He will not allow cover-ups, pretexts, or justifications, for the blood of his brothers is on the line.
——————————————————————
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses/9571
◾️If there are no changes to the special military operation today or tomorrow, I will be forced to go out to the leadership of the country to explain to them the situation on the ground
– Kadyrov
Kadyrov has criticized the situation:
– I, Ramzan Kadyrov, am officially declaring to you that all these towns will be given back. Our guys are already there. Another 10 thousand fighters are ready to leave.
– In the near future we will reach Odessa, you will see concrete results.
– I am not a strategist, as in the Ministry of Defence. But mistakes have been made. I think they will draw conclusions. When you tell the truth to your face, you may not like it. But I like telling the truth. We talked to the commanders at the fronts.
– It’s a shame that nothing was said for a few days. It is obvious that people were not prepared for that. We always talk about our work.
– If there is no change in the special military operation today or tomorrow I will have to go out to the leadership of the country to explain to them the situation on the ground. It is very interesting, “awesome” I would say.
– There are several pluses in giving them several villages and towns. We did not advertise it, but we had a special mission. Our guys have gone in and started their work.
– In the near future we will meet with military correspondents and explain to them what patriotism is. Patriots must not be offended if someone did something wrong. We must unite people around us.
– I know one thing. Russia will win. NATO weapons will be crushed by the spirit of our fighters. Our appearance is already making their hands and feet tremble.
——————————————————————-
Lone Wolf
Ramzan Kadyrov.
Probably a man who has dedicated his heart and mind to this war the most.
He deserves to be the one who speaks the truth. Man doesn’t struck me as a liar, and you can clearly see his dedication to Mother Russia.
Headless chickens running in panic or those having foot in air and joy – that’s the melody of armchair generals in social media. But actually very few people really know what really is happening.
I think it’s better to come back to start point: why RF believed it needs just around 100,000 soldiers to handle Ukraine (+DPR and LPR militias)? That’s the real mystery.
Perhaps it’s not about decimating Ukrainian Armed Forces but eliminating European Union. The long long period war in Ukraine is the tool.
Military Summary and Moon Of Alabama think that Ukraine counteroffensive is a disaster for Russia. Whereas, Andrei Martyanov thinks it’s not. I hope Andrei is right.
Military Summary is an obviously pro-Ukrainian-slanted shill (his wife is Ukrainian). MoA is normally pretty sane and objective, but seems to have panicked a bit in the last few days.
@ Anton Gorbatow on September 11, 2022 · at 12:44 am EST/EDT
Military Summary and Moon Of Alabama think that Ukraine counteroffensive is a disaster for Russia. Whereas, Andrei Martyanov thinks it’s not. I hope Andrei is right.
——————————————————-
@ palmtoptiger on September 11, 2022 · at 5:48 am EST/EDT
Military Summary is an obviously pro-Ukrainian-slanted shill (his wife is Ukrainian). MoA is normally pretty sane and objective, but seems to have panicked a bit in the last few days.
——————————————————
I never trusted either of them.
“Military Summary” predictions and forecasts have turned out to be wrong one too many times.
“Moon of Alabama” never earned my respect as an analyst, IMHO, he’s a copy and paste guy, whose background as a “tanker” in the German army and his blog, elevated him to a “Clausewitzian” level for his supporters, an idol with clay feet.
Many of his analysis don’t hold water.
No doubt the current AFU counter offensive is a setback for the SMO, however, it is far from being a disaster. Russia & Allies armies are intact, minus those KIA/WIA/captured during the retreat. Even if a forced retreat, it was done according to Russia’s Way of War, it was not a stampede or a rout.
I don’t understand why people continue to get information from outlets such as those, there are much better sources of info, analysis, and debate, all over the net. And the best source of analysis, is your own. Unfortunately many have fallen into the trap of mental inertia, hoping others would think for them, delegating their analytical homework to others.
Some posters here are still reading PCR, leaning heavily on his senile rants. Others still trust Lira, even after his “disappearance” with the SBU. War gets life moving at hypersonic speed, leaving behind all of those who cannot cope with the new realities, filtering new events with their old, phased out, glasses.
Many new thinkers are out, created by the natural need to fill the gap with fresh analysis and insights into a high stakes war that presents us with new challenges every day.
We just have to find them.
Lone Wolf
After 6 months of war, the USA–with the most powerful miltary in world history–manages via its proxy its first and only minor tactical counter offensive
Why are we talking about this?
Maybe because for months many of us have been calling for the Russians to bring the full force of its military or they’ll be pushed back to Russia. We were told there was no need for this that Ukraine couldn’t muster up a counter offensive. That Russia didn’t want to risk civilian casualties yet online you literally see civilians welcoming Ukrainian troops in the towns once held by Russians. And yet here we are Ukrainians pushing 30 miles into the Russian lines. Love this site but I wanted Russia to beat the crap out of NATO and I thought I understood their strategy but to be honest I don’t anymore. Armchair general I suppose but you beat your opponent into submission to win a war. They should be running round the clock air strikes on any thing that moves across the border from Poland etc. There are still to this day video of heavy weapons pouring into Ukraine by train Putin & Co better pull their heads out of their asses and soon.
Lol this “counter offensive” is actually amusing. Dont see what it accomplished since RF isnt primarily interested in occupying cow pastures as it consistently turns NATO supplied arms into scrap metal.
@Sadly, this does have some effect, even amongst Russians who really ought to know better by now
Sadly, that shows that the Western PR is very skilled. I was distressed at the speed with which most pro-Russian started peppering their analyses by repeating several times in the course of the ‘discussion’ the talking points of western defeatist propaganda. Russian ‘defeat’, ‘Putin’s blunder’, Putin’s ‘red face’, ‘mounting criticism against Putin’ by his military, ‘major psychological blow’, Ukrainian ‘victories’, ‘expect that criticism will mount in the following weeks’.
But that, at least imho, reveals the real thrust of the ‘hybrid’ war that the West wages against Russia at least since 2014, activating the ‘Nth column’ to take to the streets and bring ‘regime change’.
So, the Russians ‘may’ have suffered a minor setback and all is lost?
Come on, lets not emotionally overcompensate here, I don’t think anyone (Outside of those directly involved) has a particularly clear picture of exactly what happened, and it does appear that there is a concerted effort to spread questionable (AKA Bullsh!t) narratives in western media.
It sounds like there may have been some mistakes, humans make mistakes, I’d be surprised if one setback is going to cost the RF anything more than time.
“Sivkov (PhD in Military Sciences) is very critical of Putin and the Russian Military”.
Everyone and his brother are very critical of Putin and the Russian Military. Except me who watched the Red Army chew up 80% of Hitler’s Wehrmacht and de-Nazify East Europe from Kiev to Berlin. Incidentally they liberated Lvov and saved the life of a girl who grew up to become my wife, so I must admit to having a personal bias in favour of the Russian Military.
As for Putin, I began by being scornful of his talk about solving the problem of terrorism in Chechnya. Then I saw him solve it and move on toward solving the problem of terrorism in Syria. Syria proved to be the “stone in the middle of the road” which showed to the world that it was possible to resist NATZO’s “irresistible armed might”.
Also, I have watched Putin undo the terrible harm done to Russia by Gorbachev and Yeltsin with their blinkered admiration for Western Liberalism and its bloodsucking Financial Oligarchs. Since Oligarchs own most of the information media, I am not surprised that many voices are “very critical of Putin”.
I am more inclined to believe what the first, top comment said.
No offense, but this “special military operation” is not so special anymore. This is a full blown war, and it needs to be treated as such.
There are no battles for This or That in a SMO.
Saker,
I wish to make what will be my fourth and last post.
As a midwesterner in America I would like to address several topics that lay within my purview being deep within the belly of the proverbial beast.
First is the state of information:
For the most part there is concern among many average “rural” or “country people” over recent verbal attacks by the biden government that demonize those groups and others as well.
While many may not be here reading daily MOD reports or even know what one is, there is a poor mood about the sending of weapons in light of recent events.
My personal opinion is that anyone with compassion has awakened to the obvious.
I do fear for those lost in the propaganda. Within those groups a terrible thing may arise.
Ukrainian flags are few and far between, no events, just a sullen populace coming to grips that the federal system is targeting them and hoping beyond hope that mid term elections change the face of american politics.
I am also hopeful as many cracks have formed in the wall of media suppression and I hear more actual facts being discussed albeit in low tones.
This is another trend around here, people are not talking a lot about anything. Greetings, platitudes, small talk about minor happens and events are all done with a cordial glee. The more distasteful topics as well as the less distasteful seemed to be shunned for happy talk in the middle.
The recent admissions of unchecked migration highlight the porous southern border.
I suspect there are many who would welcome a case of ‘kalish, semtex and rpg falling from the sky from a wealthy benefactor yet I suspect they would not be used, not yet.
You see civility is still being attempted, chances given to the system to affect change, apple carts are not overturned, politicians still walk freely but only in certain places.
Within one hours drive One will find places none of that is true. St.louis, Chicago, has many no go zones run by increasingly effective criminal elements. This is the otherside of the coin, the desperation building as more people fall behind economically creating more negativity and strife culturally. Again I am hopeful as the “good” outnumber the “bad” in about the same historical ratio with mostly the intensity of interactions being impacted higher.
It is apparent that starting the second american civil war is not that easy to do and for that I am thankful to my fellow citizens.
Now to admit the factor of time. How long can they sustain? How much has been intentionally crafted to create such conditions?
There is no help coming from the average citizen over the War. My fervent position is that everyone is waiting to vote in the upcoming elections yet is quite aware they may not be counted properly or at counted at all. This is the stain from 2020. I have never considered myself able to judge the actual count, I simply observe the loss of trust created by the appearance of a badly run election. I fear exploitation will attempted yet hold hope for many are alert. only with a new government will the madness be abated.
As this is an open thread I will take a small liberty and touch briefly on a few matters.
Taiwan. How much is it worth to be given a free chance to practice an invasion? How much to do so in complete safety? My observation is the speaker of the house allowed exactly those outcomes with her actions. I am concerned my fellow citizens can not follow multi threaded activities were the participants are actively engaged in preventing discovery.
The increase in quality of american involvment against Russia is as I indicated in my earlier post laid bared for any who wish to look. While there are many considerations, I worry when the real decapitations begin to occur. The ability to pinpoint attacks become a matter of statistical numerical chance. Enough opportunities yield results.
Space is becoming crowded, what is really up there? when will that large satellite second in magnitude to the moon be joined by many more and how long before the forums are congested with “Alien Fleet” stories.
I swear two of my braincells die when I accidentally read flat earth posts.
In closing, To all here and abroad that still functions as a normal human You are to commended, To all the Courageous Souls who risk life and limb to bring truth to light You have my undying gratitude.
To those who ordered the 9/11 demolition job to be instigated and to those who created the conditions allowing events to occur you have my unyielding resolution to never forget and never forgive.
To our Russian friends who are suffering the most, enduring violence, needless misfortune and loss,
You all have my eternal vigilance to preserve Your truth and my solemn vow of Memorial to my last breath.
To You Saker, fly well for the storms are nigh and the tempest lurks.
I retire to my place in history.
Bob: I, for one, would strongly prefer that you not retire. Your statement above is downright elegant, in my mind — intensely noble and commendably human.
I haven’t seen your other posts, but that one was much appreciated.
Wondering what is motivating Ukinazi troops increased zeal when it comes to their use of ISIS style storm tactics which seemed to have caught the Russian forces by surprise. Nobody can deny that courageous Ukrainians be it in their language, religion, history and culture are much much closer to Russia than say to Germany or Sweden. Personally, as an inexperienced outsider, I could never figure out if the person I met was Russian or Ukrainian, but could tell precisely if that person wasn’t German, Swedish, Hungarian, Polish..etc. So their disproportionate show of zealousness, from the beginning of the conflict, isn’t because they seek to save Ukraine, if that was the case they would have instantaneously sided with Russia and kicked all those NATO-backed neonazis out of their country first then made proper dealings with Russia separately. Most likely, the personal gain factor ($) is behind their zealous behavior. Also they must have easy access to some kind of illegal drugs. When the NATO and the US announce a multi-billion aid package for Ukraine a big chunk of cash and other goodies is sent to the Uki soldiers based on performance, depending on their ranks and files, those with neonazi credentials get bigger incentives and so on. This is what’s encouraging the ordinary Ukrainian soldiers. In other words, the globalists have commercialized the war in Ukraine using clueless Ukrainians as their cannon fodder. Very similar to what has been done to the world of sports as exemplified in the Euro football league where players are bought and sold for tens of millions of Euros. The war in the Ukraine is another commercialized enterprise of the neocons and WEF. Russia, China and Iran must have to deal with that evil phenomenon without hesitation, since their very own existence as sovereign nations depends on winning the battle.
I can see why the MoD has been so quiet–let the blog-o-sphere chatter away in FUD. I won’t dampen the joy of my Russophobic relatives who think the Ukrainians are fighting an existential battle while Russia’s citizens are sick of a war they continue being roundly trounced in. If all the news they ever hear is how Ukraine is humiliating Russia, it will make no difference at all where it actualy counts. (The non-Russophobic relatives have other news sources.)
Serge has good points to make as well. Thank you for both recommendations!
It is said that Napoleon always scouted the battlefield and waited for the enemy to make a mistake and then pounce on it. So whether Russia expected this, or planned this or was caught off by guard by the Ukraine makes no difference. As long as Russia is smart enough to see that this is a killing field and act on it, then I am happy. If it does manage to bring its own reserves and major armies up , then Russia will destroy the ukro main army as it has wanted to for months.
Thanks so much Andrei!! The Big Serge blog is also a fine summary and will be interesting to follow.
I hope comment will be allowed. A lot of pro Russian supporters are probably disappointed because of current events, because we have formed, as non experts, unrealistic (superhuman) picture of Russian military capability. We have formed such picture due to our own military ignorance,but frankly, also under influence of pro Russian blogs and internet resources. I am talking about myself, having gleaned all my “knowledge” from those resources. Yeah, a lot of us thought that “Ukrainians will be destroyed with stand off weapons in one week”.
Look, Russian army is strong and is nuclear superpower. But, it seems to me, after following this conflict closely, that it is not fighting “network centric warfare”as in computer game, it does not have enough capable special military drones (I tend to believe Rybar and Poddubny here more then Martyanov), there are therefore problems with orientation on battlefield, reconaissance and identification of targets (lack of military satellites as compared to West,lack of AWACS planes). It is truly hard to explain how can Ukrainians be relatively succesful with their logistics, utilizing mostly train network.
It also seems that air force utility, of any armed forces, is going to be quite limited if opponent has air defense at least on level of late Soviet Union technology….Finally, there is also question of size of an attacking army. And if it is true that Donbass militia is less well equipped then Russians themselves, that is just a shame.
And so on.
I do believe that human and material losses of Ukraine are many times greater. How long can they endure this, I have no idea.
I do not believe that Russians set a trap for Ukraine. Why? Because if they had, they would not have divulged it, or so to speak they would not have sold the bear’s skin before having hunted it (French proverb). Instead they would have waited une after annihilation of Ukrainian forces. If they do not match words with action in the next few days, everyone will laugh at Russia.
A new report from the Military Summary Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stgKKzG3kwo
I think these problems can be overcome if the right measures are taken.But right now things are not good at all.
Another good blog for the French speaking crowd:
Washington and London play the last chance card: an offensive in Kharkov – by Edouard Husson
https://lecourrierdesstrateges.fr/2022/09/11/guerre-dukraine-jours-191-198-washington-et-londres-jouent-la-carte-de-la-derniere-chance-une-offensive-sur-kharkov-par-edouard-husson/
As much as I would like this two articles to be true, i can not get rid of the picture of the black knight in Monty Python, saying “ Non shall pass” while getting slaughtered.
Whatever are the Russians doing, one thing is sure. The civilians will pay the price.
I don’t claim to know what’s going on and am not an ‘armchair general.’ I do know both sides are heavily engaged in a propaganda war and as social media is largely run by the US, the west is winning that. However, I do raise an eyebrow when I’m told a third rate Ukrainian army comprised largely of a rag tag of conscripts and ideological Nazis are winning the military conflict against a professional Russian army. In much the same way as I shook my head when told of the previous ‘success’ of NATO in Afghanistan, or Saddam’s vow that he would defeat the NATO forces sent against him in Iraq.
Let’s leave US double speak out of this. What is happening is not a policing action, an SMO, or an intervention. It’s an unofficial war between NATO and Russia on Russia’s doorstep and one Russia can’t afford to lose.
Its going to happen sometime. Its the law of averages.The combined armies and military strategists of NATO are going to be even remotely effective, for once.This of course would be portrayed by their propaganda machine as the greatest military victory ever! They could lose thousands and thousands in the process and not give a damn. And of course they will try to cause as much disharmony and discontent as possible as any half capable propaganda machine would.
The point is to remain calm,learn and carry out the tactical arrangements that are planned for such events.
But these are all early moments and all does seem highly strange,a bit suspicious and nothing would surprise be. But certainly overacting and jumping to catastrophic conclusions really does aid Nato, is exactly what they want and is a key aim of their propaganda attack.
Further to my earlier comment I want to add that it makes total sense to me for RA to make tactical retreat for 3-5 days. The AFU troopers are stuffed to their gills with amphetamine/white powders. They fight like maniacs so why waste precious lives of allied soldiers on these drugged up zombies? Plus within the week all tanks will run out of fuels and there is no way fuels can be supplied/distributed along those routes without being destroyed. It is also my take that drug sack of those zombies will be empty within 3-5 days.
I feel sorry for those AFU soldiers playing cannon folders for a dying evil empire.
Looks like an excellent opportunity for a nuclear ‘false flag’ by the USA and NATO. “Russian military strategically retreats into a position where they can close the trap and wipe out Ukraine’s counter offensive forces easily”. The world’s propaganda media tells the “lies” that Ukraine’s military forces are winning and pushing the Russians back to their own country, and there you have a “false flag nuclear response”, that looks like Russia’s military had to resort to the use of nuclear weapons or suffer defeat. Do the idiot American and Nato executors and planners not know the “end result of introducing nuclear weapons into an armed conflict”? I am probably an idiot for saying this, but, WORLD WAR 3 is inching closer by the day. Do the “western powers-that-be” have a “death wish”? deliberately conspiring against the future of mankind?
A convincing nuclear false flag would require NATO to incinerate its own Army.
That would only happen if it was used as justification for an instant nuclear attack on Russian forces, which would guarantee massive nuclear escalation.
But you are right to look for and anticipate the purpose behind the massive propaganda onslaught.
What is the goal?
As a Brit we will never be in a democracy when such an institution exists. The royal prerogative and veto powers are immense and have been used many times to circumvent democratic accountability over the crown. These powers are also very worrying in their potential use. Any popular movement that has the potential to seriously challenge wealth in order to achieve a fairer society can be thwarted by being organised around the monarchy. This could be lead by the military using the monarchy.In fact, this was indeed being planned using Mountbatten in the 1970s with Scorpion light tanks on the streets and at airports ready to act. There is also the issue of the totally unelected House of Lords and its ability to obstruct democracy as enshrined in the British legislative process.The British Crown has also interfered in other countries democratic processes.
All of this hugely costs the British taxpayer and there is also so much wealth that was just simply stolen from other countries.
The NATO Nazi attack in Kharkov is an epic fail for the UAF, which these days is more NATO than Ukie. The most common mistake that people make is to assume that military actions are about territory. Territory is less important than destroying your enemy. In the SMO, that’s what “demilitarization means– destroy Zelensky’s ability to make war But to destroy your enemy you have to persuade them to come out and fight. Zelensky needed more money for his future life in Beverly Hills as a billionaire. So he jumped at the bait. And his troops pay in blood. As I say here: https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/the-failed-nato-nazi-offensive-in The Failed NATO Nazi Offensive in Kharkov.
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/09/clarity-in-small-dozes.html?m=1. Martyanov remains determined there is disaster for Ukies unfolding, as they are going to be decimated. First part of his article seems (to me) to hint in direction of “planned retreat theory”.
Thanks for posting that, In particular, this: “выбить технику,которая находится не в городах и укрепрайонах, а на открытых пространствах” …completely rings true as far as Russian military doctrine is concerned. Here it is again:
The Great Commanders – 106 – Georgy Zhukov
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RNmz8ARKc8&t=1265s
Additionally, during the GPW, most of the Stavka offensives, came as counteroffensives, after the Germans expended themselves, or with sufficient deception (маскировка) to ensure they were attacking where the Germans were weakest (eg: Bagration).
For those very familiar with the Great Patriotic War, this book answers a lot of questions:
Soviet Military Deception in the Second World War
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2377863.Soviet_Military_Deception_in_the_Second_World_War
Earlier in the SMO, I was wondering why they let all of those Western weapons flow to the Donbas, but so long as they were flowing to “open spaces” and not the cities, M. Zhukov would have approved. IMHO
URGENT:
Reports that Kiev regime forces began clearing their own defensive minefields in the Ugledar direction.
The next Kiev counteroffensive in the southeast towards Mariupol is about to be launched.
Mark Sleboda twitter
The terrain in Ugledar is more similar to Kherson open country so I don’t think that the offensive there will easy for the Ukrainians.
https://tsargrad.tv/news/fakt-podtverzhdjon-razvedka-ssha-gotovila-kontrnastup-vsu_622643
“We need to understand something else. Now the United States needs to show that the Kiev regime can win. Although this has nothing to do with reality, the created picture will allow for some time to restrain the riots both in Ukraine and in the European Union.”
“Meanwhile, now the UAF, according to military sources, are planning an offensive in the Ugledar direction. They can strike on the night of Monday, September 12.”
Another report recorded UAF de-mining.
That mention of riots in Ukraine – is something being covered up?
RuMOD “succesfully misled” UAF into liberating huge swathes of their country’s territory. And left them large amount trophies in the process. Sure, whatever. If this is what passes for “military science” in Russia, I can see why the “special operation” is going the way it’s going.
Ukraine now claims to have deceived Russiathru Western media disinformatuon into focusing on Kherson, when in fact the real action, with best NATO hardware, was planed from the start for Kharkov area (even this might not be the final objective according to some reports, but a furst step).
What one should have learned after these 6mos in UA, is that nothing can be taken for what it appears to be on the surface. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn’t and we don’t know which until days/weeks later.
From where I sit, RU’s “withdrawal” from the Izyum theatre feels too much like its Feb/Mar “attack” on Kiev to make me jump to either “strategic ambush” or “collapse” conclusions.
What I am 99.9% sure of is that the RU Command did not get taken by surprise, and that it wasn’t through incompetence or a lack of resources that they’ve allowed the attack to develop. If I was on the UA General Staff, I’d be getting uneasy about how well it’s going (casualties aside).
Sherlock Holmes said:
Obvious facts abound here, and there’s altogether too few less than obvious ones. I’d wager that the latter will prove more telling in the end.
PS: If UA casualties prove even worse than Kherson, especially if the attackers are the best UA has left to it, the RU General Staff may have calculated that the attrition is worth giving Izyum and Balakeya up temporarily. Especially so if it opens the road to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
As Pyrrhus said: “Another victory like that and I’ll be ruined”.
The civilians left behind (many did get out) to be murdered by the SBU for cooperating with Russia, may not agree that this was a brilliant idea. Many civilians will be asking ‘is Russia really here forever’?
“So, hopefully, the hardest day of this war is behind us. Yes, we surrendered a lot of very important and very necessary cities, villages, directions, but there’s nothing to be done, we have to go through it and move on. Because the war continues and, judging by the statements of the NATO Secretary General and the head of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Kyiv plans to fight it to a victorious end, which they see not only in reaching the borders of Ukraine in 2013, but also in the demolition of the current government in Russia.
And this is very good, because even the biggest “peacekeepers” in Moscow are knocked out of the hands of the last trump cards. We are all in the same boat.
But back to the front. What do we have here. The night passed relatively calmly. It is obvious that the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is fizzling out and there are many reasons for this. Firstly, logistics, it stretched for tens of kilometers, and it is not so easy to arrange the supply of troops. Secondly, losses. They are large (although much smaller than near Kherson) and they cannot be ignored either. And thirdly, the Russian command is gradually coming to its senses and new reserves have stabilized the front, albeit in the first approximation.
Attacks on Liman were repulsed yesterday with heavy losses for the enemy, and he is forced to regroup. The same is true in the Seversky direction, where yesterday the enemy tried to immediately break through our defenses in the direction of Lisichansk.
The only dangerous direction for today (but not for tomorrow) is Veliky Burluk, which Kyiv will try to take, today or tomorrow. It is probably here that the dynamics will take place today, as a result of which it will become clear how much one side recovered, and the second finally fizzled out as a result of the battles of September 7-10.”
https://t.me/s/intelslava
There is also an ongoing massive psyop about “China collapse” these past weeks, which is now overlapping with “Russian military collapse” psyop.
…there is an ABSOLUTELY MASSIVE PSYOP operation being executed in support of the Kiev regime (and NATO and the Neocons)…
There are a few things, or sometimes perhaps even more ones I dont agree with Mr. Sakere and Mr Martyanov, and he is not sometimes putting my comments on. This time however,I absolutely confirm his words above-mentioned, as for my Fatherland, which is Czechia, is concerned, it should be noted that some top brass from the Czechia establishment are publicly talking not about economic only collaps, but even about regime-change, after about 30 years from 1989, ironically in the height of such a furious anti russian propaganda and we, OTAN, are winning, Heymars, Heymars etc, ad nauseaum…. How is the situation in other countries of the EU, guys?
Perhaps The Good Soldier ( favorite book btw ) missed the 70,000-100,000 Prague anti-NATO protests a few days ago?
Could turn into the famous Monday Demo’s that brought down the DDR back then.
France has Yellow Vests, it is much worse now.
Italy has elections.
Ye ain’t seen nothin’ yet!
Actually, I was there in the crowd in Prague. And it is j still no autumn. I partially live in France and I know the Vests there well. I frankly does not know what made you react this way to my reaction, However, my bad perhaps, as moi not being good in English.
Salutations!
Great to know – what were the themes in Prague?
The Yellow Vests, as far as I know, do not say dump OTAN, or any principle – they try to be completely party-independent.
Here in Britain the media psyop has been compromised to a great degree by the death of a certain 96-year-old lady and the ensuing blanket MSM coverage; according to one poll I‘ve seen, her replacement has a public approval rating of 18% (less than Joe Biden! Imagine that!). For myself, I have long since become inured to the whole business so I am currently watching Bologna versus Fiorentina from the Italian Serie A soccer league.
Regarding the situation at Kharkov, from the maps in The Saker’s earlier post, the Ukrainian intrusion/incursion looks to my non-military eyes like a cauldron waiting for a lid…
Hele Švejku, jestli to nebude tím, že nás voni ti nahoře znaj. Vědí, že Ukrajincům nejsme schopni prominout, že bránej svou vlast jako lidi, co mněj ňákou tu sebeúctu. Poserové prostě hrdiny nesnáší.
Thanks Saker again for your insights!
The big Serge Thoughts blog, that you added a link to, explained everything in similar way as you did. Adding that Russia (her armed forces) has to adapt their forces to stop ukies counteroffensives. By striking logistic, supply and concentration of 1st tier army in ukie depth (not only 2nd teir poorly trained conscripts that are buying time with their lives on front lines for build up of 1st tier army in the depth) more seriously, that is equipped and trained by combined west. And to add more man-force to stop ukie taking over already liberated settlements until firepower reserve kicks in. Only that way RF can stop torture/execution of Russian people and destruction of civil infrastructure in even shortly retaken settlements (like Balakleya for example).
I sincerely hope that RF will adapt their strategy and save more civilians and infrastructure at the same time intensify attacks on ukie 1st tier army build up.
Thanks again and all the good to you and your closest ones as well as to your readers and our valiant RF soldiers. победа будет за нами!
One thing must be said.
Russia totally underestimated the power of western information weapons.
Information today can change the perception of a war to the point that it’s not necessary to win on the ground, it’s enough to keep chaos on the battlefield for months and years while information claims victory or moves the attention of ALL people elsewhere.
And western information can enter anywhere and force regime changes.
So the first thing to keep in mind when starting a war or conflict with the west is that they have built a perfect mass control weapon and can use it against anyone, which is the real issue now in Ukraine.
And one more mistake, in my opinion, is to think to be able to make a controlled and scientific militar operation against Nato. It’s impossible. You cannot control all the effects of such an operation, you cannot control all the outcomes you open, you cannot make a logical operation and then pretend all is solved.
The west is such a wicked and dangerous out of control empire that it will easily turn any controlled operation into a mess of chaos and confusion, which is what’s happening now.
So now Russia should accept that SMO, as an idea and attempt, is not possible anymore. She should upgrade to a new phase, which could be an escalation or a change of strategy, because it’s clear we are in front of a massive confrontation between Russia/China and Usa/Nato (with satellites).
And one more thing to keep in mind is that now Europe is in total full control of financial vampires and this means it will never help Russia to achieve anything and it will never break ties with fascist Nato information and behaviour.
Dunno Fab. These information weapons do not reach as much the pro-Russian population. It emboldens the Ukrainians though. Especially the servicemen. A narrative so they can lay down their life for a “future”.
Is it true that Ukraine has been attacking the water supply of Donetsk and residents are receiving water only
every third day? Most of them live in apartment buildings which have remote heating. Without water, remote
heating does not work, hence it’s not clear how the Donetsk population shall stay in place during the winter.
I have read that allied forces had been redepolyed to Donetsk to try and end the shelling so that that won’t
happen. Maybe that was the reason why the defence line at Izyum was so thin – the command took the troops
from where they thought they could afford it. The Ukrainians noticed it, prepared the offensive, the command
noticed their preparations, made some counter-moves but it was too little to late. There was no initial plan for
drawing the Ukrainians into a killing zone although that might be the outcome, or maybe what the command
hoped to get in return for the more or less forced withdrawal. Overall, a strategic win for Ukraine initiated by
what amounts to a gigantic war crime. Countering that within the current format of the SMO is not possible.
A MoD briefing from today or yesterday talks at relative length about the electricity supply in the DPR and how
it is being interrupted by Ukrainian action. This seems a little bit unusual. Are they preparing their audience for
Russia taking steps in reprisal?
Big Serge mostly is on twitter. His work is, indeed most interesting .
The extraordinary panic about this offensive really helps to highlight just how disastrous most of the UAF’s efforts have been.
If we take a mental look at the events from November 2021 to September 2022, then two versions are possible.
1) Events in Ukraine are seen as a “diversionary war”. And SMO is seen as a feudal lord’s raid with a squad, not a war. The Russian Minister Plehve in 1904 is credited with the phrase: “To keep the revolution, we need a small victorious war”. US Secretary of State Hay in 1898 is credited with the phrase: “This should be a splendid little war.”
2) The events in Ukraine are seen as a preventive defense of Russia from the real threat of aggression by NATO countries.
Well, what happened teaches that you should not rely on the speeches of politicians, military observers and military journalists if they are not completely independent, which means they are impartial and objective.
How to distinguish an impartial and objective person from a politician or a propagandist serving him – he does not adhere to any ideology, there are no emotionally charged ideologues in his texts and speeches.
It is probably more useful for the soul to think about how you personally live among events that you cannot influence, and when you are ruled by people you did not choose.
This is my philosophical mood right now.
Mine as well. May I add:
3) the SMO as prolonged, painful, alternative to any direct conquest or destruction of Russian (speaking, breathing) borderlands and massive capital destruction. And it draws in NATO and EU resources and “cancellation” attempts which only fuels rifts exactly where Russia seems a rift beneficial: US vs BRICS and the EU national parliaments. Also widens some differences in the EU (Hungary, Poland). The SMO seems to be designed to last through the winter or at least the energy and refugee crisis. It’s painful for all citizens involved. But here one needs to pause emotional and compassionate impulses. All big changes in the world bear a price.
Russian troops with an Ukrainian POW
https://ok.ru/video/3795834833536
Ukrainian troops kicked Russian POWs
https://ok.ru/video/3795834047104
Has anyone noticed this aspect ?
Secrets of the battle for Balakliya: Russia did not touch ukrainian gas fields, but now the Russian Aerospace Forces are moving into a special regime
Attacking our troops in Kharkiv region, Zelensky made the biggest mistake
https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/345530/
“To make it clear what we are talking about, we will cite some facts: from Balakliya to Shebelinka, where Naftogaz produces more than 40% of blue fuel, some 19 km. According to derzhavna of the statistics service of Ukraine, the GPU “Shebelinkagazvydobuvannya” in 2020 supplied consumers with “nenki” 7.552 billion m³ of gas and more than 128.04 thousand tons of gas condensate and oil.”
Somehow went under the NordStream radar….
Unfortunately, another feed to the EU-OTAN propaganda. I just has learnt Izyum fallen. Not too much left to believe to Stavka how smart all that feint has been designed, ru pundits and Mr Saker all things goes according to the plan , see links to another ru taking heads trolling for media. Very nervous about these civilians, ethnic ru again abandoned. I had live over 30 years in Africa and know very well the local armies were able to commit there atrocities regarding non-friendly population. And SBU, Kraken and others are in my opinon the same scum , more Butcha can be expected. I say it again, after Izyum, call this operation FUBAR, dear ru establishment. What about impact on your people and ru public opinion, by the way?
As for me, I perhaps already just believe Mr Kadyrov.
I do am convinced the offensive will be stopped. But what costs for? Is tis WWII revival?
As I read the comments in relation to the so called “Ucranian success” versus the SMO, I was thinking to myself, since when Russia has to give very detailed explanations to the four corners of the world of what they are trying to do???
For Pete’s sake the Western sociopaths, specially the U.S. does as it pleases and it only uses it’s very narcissistic self importance to justify it’s very criminal behavior. I am very well aware we humans are imperfect, but to tolerate, let alone, justify complete sociopathic behavior of such a delusional and narcissistic “civilization”/society like the so called “free world” aka “collective West” is beyond obscene. To allow ourselves that NATO’s “cognitive warfare” manipulate and control our deepest emotions is basically allowing the Western sociopaths to gain “an upper hand”.
It wasn’t until relatively recently I started to “look East” to wean myself away from the ideological poison that the so called “free world” , specifically, the U.S. has been force feeding in their “education system” since childhood. Russia, is one of the lead ones. It’s not about being a blind supporter of Russia, for me, it’s been about having certain admiration and respect for a people who have gone through a lot in their almost 2, 000 years history and they are still around fighting the good fight.
1. In new developments, it seems the Russian military withdrew from its positions in the north part of Kharkiv Oblast. Completely. They now seem to be only present in Russia and east of the line Urazovo-Dvorichna-Kupiansk-Borova-Sviatohirsk. This is most weird. I wonder what the rationale for that is. First: it’s obvious they weren’t pushed out by Ukrainians, they literally withdrew. So it was a decision from the top, but why? I have no idea. O_O The only semi-sensible reason I can give is that they were protecting the rail line from Belgorod to Kupiansk, by maintaining a large buffer zone in front of it. And now that that buffer zone has been expended, the rail line can’t be protected, so there’s no point in keeping soldiers around it and they left. The other option is that the Russians didn’t prepare a fortified line of defense anywhere in the area so there’s no point for them to stay there.
2. It seems also that there is a pretty salient south of Izyum. Originally yesterday, the word was that Russians gave up on everything west of Borova-Sviatohirsk, but now it seems that they are still present in the northern half of Sherwood forest and are still sitting on about 15km of M40 road. If so, they are still preventing the resupply of Donbas by Ukrainians using M40.
3. It occured to me yesterday that, by now, any fortifications the Ukrainians used to defend against Russians in Donbas, and that were taken by Russians, are probably destroyed. For example, Popasna was taken half a year ago. And in that time, Russians had the opportunity to tear down all fortifications. Remove the wood supports. Jackhammer the concrete into gravel. Fill the trenches in with dirt. So giving up such land isn’t as much of a problem as it might seem because retaking it will be much easier. Where there were fortifications earlier, there is only ground now.
4. Yeah, the PSYOPS assets are leaking through in the comment section. It’s OK I guess, a little target practice for us in spotting them. :)
The ukes are trapped. If they fall back any further than they have, there will be nothing between the Russians and the Dnieper but open steppe with no place to run or hide. They have to attack and not only does the 3-1 thing work against them but Russians can actually use Mongol tactics, falling back and luring them into traps and, as if that wasn’t bad enough around Kherson, they’re now trying this thing up close to the Russian border from which Russian war planes can hammer any vehicles involved to pieces so that it’s just ukes in tennis shoes stuck 20 miles into some small salient (i.e. surrounded). Logically, all this can be is a giant Russian trap and a bunch of ukie mice walking/running into it with big smiles….
It seems Donetsk is fallen
Let me guess – this bs comes from Kiev Post?
I’m of the opinion that even what passes for “blogs” or “anslysis” can in fact be simply another form of warfare where the witting or unwitting analysts are themselves being maneuvered about to bring the desired result. So whether someone believes they “know” something they may in fact be a tool in a wider war of perception. In the end we the audience simply do not know.
Re: trolls etc.
1. Anyone who tells you what happens next is full of it.
2. If the comment is more than 250 words it’s probably useless. Get your own blog, do not piggyback on The Saker.
3. A small set of permalinks is a good substitute for the annoying set of commenters who repeatedly post links to the same site.
Keep up the good work and do not let them wear you down.
When I was at school, the bullies were always in a group, much like hyenas. Kids who were potential favorites of the class mostly stood alone and did their own thing.
Others knew how to stay out of bullies’ way and laugh when it was required.
It only took few packed punches to the loudest of them in everyone’s presence for the story to do the rounds…..that they are not invincible. Yes, i did it being half his size!
You do damage and get bruised in return. The fight is all about psychology, giving a message that status quo is gone forever. Game of hyenas doesn’t end, but the mask is lifted for all to see. You are not the only game in town.
SMO was what everyone knew would come. Pepe wrote about it for 20 years. Afghan invasion was seen by all four major countries around it as a way to scupper all possibilities of development, start of endless war. When that was a hostility against these countries indirectly, and colour revolutions on other side being another indirect hostility, reaction had to happen now or 10 years later, whatever the outcome. Alternative is to accept your side’s slow death.
You don’t go into a fight with bigger opponent thinking that everything will work out. You might lose, bruised or broken, but the bully loses even bigger, prestige and a few bones forever.
Damage is irreversible. All animals saw the mask coming off, and it was himiliation that won’t go.
What is the purpose of the massive troll farm propaganda offensive?
To drown out the truth of Ukraine and NATO’s horrendous losses.
One possibility.