(thanks to alibi “a” for sending me this piece!)
by Dinesh Narayanan for ibn live:
In the aftermath of the Mumbai terror attacks, the question that everyone is asking is ‘Why’. India already claims it has evidence of Pakistani hand. On Friday, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had made a stern call to Pakistan and had asked them to send the head of its intelligence agency, the ISI, to India. However, Pakistan has refused to do the same.
But is it a bit too soon to jump to conclusions? In an attempt to get some answers, we speak to Lahore-based journalist Ahmed Rashid, an expert on South and Central Asia who authored bestsellers such as Jihad, Taliban and Descent into Chaos. He tells Forbes Network 18’s Dinesh Narayanan on phone from Rome that the attacks are a conspiracy to drive a wedge between the two neighbours. Excerpts from the interview:
QUES: Do you think the attack on Mumbai was planned to de-stabilise the conciliatory efforts of the Indian and Pakistani governments?
Ahmed Rashid: I think the attacks were strategically planned by al-Qaeda through the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) militants they train. It is trying to work out a space for itself in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). They have been hurting very badly in there because of pressure from the Pakistani army and US missile attacks.
QUES: What is the objective?
Ahmed Rashid: It is a military strategic objective to get the army out of Bajour and stop the US from stepping in. If tensions between India and Pakistan escalate, the army will be moved to the Indian border, as happened in 2002. After the attacks on the Parliament House in Delhi, India built up troops on the border. Pakistan responded by moving its army from the Afghanistan border to the Indian one. And al-Qaeda had a free run of FATA. They are looking to repeat the exercise.
QUES: Do you think they are likely to succeed?
Ahmed Rashid: The danger is the escalation of India-Pakistan accusations. They should not fall into the al-Qaeda trap. The Indian Government has already jumped the gun a bit. It is a weak government and is under pressure to do something.
QUES: What would happen if the Indian and Pakistani governments see through the trap?
Ahmed Rashid: Then there will be more attacks in Pakistan. This is a very critical period for al-Qaeda. It has only a few months. The US is preparing to send 20,000 troops into Afghanistan by April. The al-Qaeda is under tremendous pressure. They need to do something.
QUES: Will the new government in Pakistan be able to genuinely change the relationship with India?
Ahmed Rashid: It is a weak civilian government, just like the Indian Government. It is a Government that is besieged by a collapsing economy and tensions with the army. But it has its heart in the right place. The army needs to come under a democratic government for the outlook on national security to change.
Dinesh Narayanan is Associate Editor at the new business magazine to be launched by Network 18 in alliance with Forbes, USA.
Al-Qaeda here, Al-Qaeda there, I’m sick and tired to read about them connected to every single bullit being shot.
What about all the connections between the attackers and “other groups” I read about? What about money, training, intelligence, logistic, etc? What about deceiving tactics and propaganda leading to blind alley or false track?
It looks like Al-Qaeda is sort of a God who influenced all participating sides in South Asia and the Middle East.
I wouldn’t be so spunky to favor one interview, review, or text over others when all the mess after the shootout wasn’t clear off.
Regards
@p202: I wouldn’t be so spunky to favor one interview, review, or text over others
That’s why we each have our own blog where we do what we want :-)
Seriously, this version has the immense quality of providing a plausible rationale for the attacks – something the other versions lack…
As for al-Qaeda, you are getting too hung up on words (again). I am not even sure that any such thing like “al-Qaeda” really exists, but that does not matter one bit. Call them al-Qaeda, call them Wahabi, call them Salafi, call them Deobandi, call them murderous insane thugs – whatever. The fact remains that there is a group of Muslim fanatics out there every bit as nasty and evil as the US and Israeli propaganda wants us to believe they are. There is a tendency among some of those who are opposed to the USraelian empire to believe that anything and everything the US and Israeli propaganda says is a lie, but that is not so, alas. The terrorist threat which the Empire constantly tries to scare us with is real, albeit not quite as ubiquitous and organized as they claim it is.
But its there, alright, and we should not stick our heads in the sand about it because, as the saying goes, when your head is in the sand, our ass is in the air…
This comment has been removed by the author.
VS: “thanks to alibi for sending me this piece!»
I’m flattered, but the credit should go to somebody else. I’m not the one who has sent that piece to you.
But still – it was nice to get mentioned in your blog.
PS. If there will be no one to claim the prize you can leave my nick.
Cheers.
@alibi: call me stupid, senile, distracted, confused, scatter-brained, etc. – I plead guilty as charged :-)
Too many of you have a name starting with “a”…
But hey, since you got the credit, now you need to send me some good article ;-)
Great analysis
The Neo-Yeltsin Administration? (By Michael Hudson)
http://www.counterpunch.org/hudson11262008.html
So I was thinking after reading this article and thought about a conspiracy theory. What if it was the Pak govt which wanted this to happen? I mean think about it, Taliban was created by the ISI with the blessings of the Pak govt and the Pak army (obviously). And currently they are being hosed down in the FATA region due to which the Pak govt is very unpopular. This was the case during last days of Musharraf’s prez. So maybe due to internal pressures (read: lack of money / credibility of the pak govt), they instigated the LeT to get some dirty work for them so that they can move their soldiers from the NWFP / FATA to the eastern border and so show to the people of pak that they have stopped doing America’s dirty work.
/conspiracy theory.
-CD
Saker, you may want to read this piece. Former analysis by this author proved to be accurate. She considers it is all about Plan “B” for Afghanistan, after the plan “A” has failed. (I think you can read Spanish, can’t you. But if you have any doubts just ask me. I can manage pretty well. LOL).
In my view other factors can be added into the equation, such as the gas-deal that was on verge of being signed among Iran+Pak+India, what would indirectly be a peace-deal too, since Pak+India should have to overcome their old enemity so that business could prosper. And, perhaps, this peace-deal between the two (adding it Iran as a commercial partner and ally) is hard to digest for other parties, and I’m thinking of two.
As to the Chabad sect, I’m not familiar with it. Amirian says they are antizionists (and I trust her), however in today’s article in the Guardian, Seth Freedman alludes to the petition that a relative of the murdered rebbes in Mumbai addressed at one zio-paper (while the corpses were not yet cold!…) asking not to vacate the Hebron House squattered by colonists since a year ago. So, maybe the explanation is they are on the right of the farther right, i.e., antizionists but avid to grab the Palestinian land (contrary to Neturei Karta’s position). Curiously the zio-regime is instrumentalizing the Mumbai attack for its own hasbara purposes, to the point that Livni’s declarations are plain idiotic. (Nothing new, most of hers are. LOL)
Regards.
New Delhi is being influenced by US pressure to quit the project. (nov 23, 2008)
@Lucia: first. welcome back to my blog!! I am really happy to see you back again, in particular since you and I both ended up leaving Tony’s blog.
Thanks for the very interesting article, indeed yes, I read and speak Spanish fluently, though more like a “Sudaca” then a Castillan gentleman (-: I have a rather strong “cantito porteno” from Buenos-Aires :-).
The idea that these attacks mainly benefit the USA because it justifies anti-Pakistani attacks and pushes India into the Imperial fold is very interesting.
“CD” makes an interesting argument about why the Pakistani government might actually be happy with these attacks
Could this be a situation where everybody (the Wahabis, the USA, Israel, Pakistan and the pro-US Indians) are all happy with the outcome, each for their own reasons?
A good friend of mine with lots of experience liked to say “I don’t often believe in conspiracies, but I do believe in collusions”. In this case, we might not have a grand conspiracy at work (conspiracies are always hard to organize), but a huge collusion of various actors all happy for their own reasons, I don’t know and I am open to any and all suggestions.
I would not here that collusions are hard to detect or, even more so, prove, since – unlike conspiracies – they do not require organizational features.
Again, in the case of the Mumbai attacks I fully open to any interpretations and I will give myself time to try to sort out which are the most plausible.
If you see anything else interesting, please let me know, ok?
Again – welcome back!
The Saker
PS: The Chabad Lubavicher are a weird bunch who, as far as I know, only would recognize Israel if it was created by the Messiah. I have seen reports that the families of the killed Lubavichers refused to have the coffins of the victims covered by an Israeli flag. Check out this article:
http://www.presstv.ir/Detail.aspx?id=77226§ionid=351020202
Saker: If you see anything else interesting, please let me know, ok?
Sure, I’ll do.
Thank you for your welcome. I read your blog often, even if I don’t post. Keep up with the good work.
Regards
Tony Karon’s view: The key question: Who benefits if Pakistan is blamed for Mumbai?