Russia – China Economic Front – Competition or Alternative to the Western Economic System?
Peter Koenig
4 March 2016
“The Saker”
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), including new members India and Pakistan, the Eurasian Economic Union – EEU (an alliance of six Eurasian nations – Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan) are about to sign a Trade and Cooperation Agreement. The SCO and the EEU Integration will become a powerful Platform for the promotion of the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB).
This is a transcript of a Russia-TV24 Skype interview on 2 March 2016, on the subject.
Russia-TV24 Question: Can these plans [described above] be compared to TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) which was signed last year by the US and other countries of a Trans-Pacific region?
Answer Peter Koenig
You may want to add to the SCO and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), the importance of the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) – which eventually will be interesting for Europe, especially Germany – that is, as soon as Madame Merkel, or her successor, will see the light. In 2014 Chinese President Xi Jinping offered Madame Merkel for Germany to become the western most pole of the planned new trade and development Silk Road. Most Germans want closer cooperation with Russia, with the East in general. They see that the future lies in the East, not the West. But for some reason Madame Merkel is hand-cuffed by Washington.
To answer your question – the Agreement between the SCO and the EEU will be of more importance to the countries concerned than is the TPP, because it is an accord of equal partners, whereas the TPP, similar to the TTIP (Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership planned with the 28 European Union members), is one-sided – in favor of the US and can only be imposed because the so-called partner countries are all vassals of Washington. – As the US empire is declining, this may change and once partner countries realize that they are being short-changed by the deal, they may simply abandon it.
Abandoning it, may mean joining a different economic system, applying to join the EEU – SCO – the Silk Road.
Russia-TV24: What kind of cooperation can we see within the new organization? It might be a trade union or something else?
Answer PK
It may start as a trade union – or a union for trade; I could imagine, with the longer term objective to become a political union or federation that shares the same geopolitical interests. One of the most important impacts of this cooperation is that it will further marginalize the US dollar, and therefore the US economic hegemony. This cooperation will trade in local currencies, which is already happening among BRICS and SCO countries. It will have special importance for trading in hydrocarbons, for which transactions have traditionally been nominated in US dollars, hence the trillions of dollars flooding the world, through which the US Government is able to manipulate world economies, impose sanctions at will.
Once the dollar loses its importance it will rapidly decline as a reserve currency – which is already happening. When 15 years ago the dollar covered close to 80% of the world reserves, today it has declined to less than 60%. Once the 50% threshold will be reached, the descent may be even faster. In addition, as the Chinese Yuan has been admitted officially by the IMF as the fifth currency in the SDR basket, it can be expected to gradually replace the dollar as an important world reserve currency.
Russia-TV24: What will this new trade and cooperation agreement mean for the two conflicting partners India and Pakistan:
Answer PK
It certainly has the potential of bringing them closer not only in trade but also politically. After all, trade when on equal footing, has often been an enabler of conflict resolution. This may not happen from one day to the next – but the agreement is likely putting the process in motion.
Russia-TV24: Do you think this process might be a part of the East-West competition?
Answer PK
More than a competition, I believe this agreement may show the world that another economic and monetary system is possible – where countries trade fairly with each other, where the meaning of trade is recovering its true sense of the word – an exchange where all partners benefit. This is clearly not the case with the US-sponsored TPP and TTIP. Both of them are lopsided and imposed on vassal governments, rammed down the partner countries legislative by false propaganda.
I do believe and trust that this new EEU – SCO accord will become a real alternative for countries that seek freedom from the fangs of Washington. After all, the SCO – EEU countries comprise about one third of the world’s GDP and almost half of the world population. Their unity could clearly live independently from the western monetary system.
Peter Koenig is an economist and geopolitical analyst. He is also a former World Bank staff and worked extensively around the world in the fields of environment and water resources. He writes regularly for Global Research, ICH, RT, Sputnik, PressTV, CounterPunch, TeleSur, The Vineyard of The Saker Blog, and other internet sites. He is the author of Implosion – An Economic Thriller about War, Environmental Destruction and Corporate Greed – fiction based on facts and on 30 years of World Bank experience around the globe. He is also a co-author of The World Order and Revolution! – Essays from the Resistance.
Call me an optimist, but this is how I have envisioned the new trade gatherings – as the counterpoint example to the TPP pseudo scenario much as Putin’s international law policies provide a counter example to the ‘my way or the highway’ approach we have seen from the US since the turn of the century.
The latter has become the answer to all problems domestic and international in this sorry and sad country – we very much need schooling on the right way to approach trade between countries and I very much hope we are about to be re-educated in this fundamental and all important interaction between sovereign nations.
Guess it will be a cold day in hell before Turkey ever gets into the EEU or SCO now..
Now back to our imperial project to cause the most mayhem and profits from the institute for humanitarian’s who sedate you before blowing up your family so as to spare you the pain of seeing body parts of loved ones on your face.. See the concern of imperial subjects to the losses of those fighting against global tyranny and a bomb a day keeps the money flowing more freely society of higher learning and planning..
What’s missing is that most of their fatalities were in getting rid of entrenched liver eaters from close to their own neighborhood’s. Unlike the imperial crusaders who seem to think liver eating, sex slaving, head chopping non shaving or washing lowest scum of the earth makes for good a neighbors to other people and a fitting date for your daughter’s next molest.. Notice how the imperial stupid thinks blowing up a country on the other side of the planet with mostly cave dwellers were for their own safety and to keep their loved ones sane but those up in arms against these vile scum within walking distance is for some global dominating scheme planning to take away their imperial freedom and liberty.. Don’t forget, the best imperial subject is one from far away that is local that you can buy CHEAP that would sell his own mother into sex slavery..
Hezbollah Fatalities in the Syrian War
Analysis of funeral reports and other open-source data offers potentially revealing insights into the militia’s combat losses in Syria, its shifting role in the war next door, and the security of its position back home in Lebanon.
Lebanese Hezbollah’s entire raison d’etre is founded on the doctrine of al-Muqawama, or resistance against Israel. Since at least 2012, however, the Shiite militia has fought fellow Arabs in neighboring Syria on Iran’s behalf, in an attempt to secure the survival of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and thereby maintain its own overland lifeline to Tehran. Unsurprisingly, this awkward conflict between theory and practice has resulted in contradictory statements from Hezbollah’s leadership concerning the extent of the group’s presence and participation in the war next door. During the conflict’s early years, they dismissed all such claims as enemy propaganda, yet they have acknowledged and even boasted of their involvement as the war drags on.
Hezbollah’s funeral announcements, in particular those appearing on http://www.southlebanon.org, and http://www.yasour.org, provide useful insight into the actual nature and extent of the group’s participation in combat. Comparing this data with Persian-language open-source material regarding fatalities among Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also illuminates an apparent shift in how Tehran views Hezbollah’s role in the war.
WHAT THE FUNERAL DATA TELLS US
According to the above sources, at least 865 Hezbollah fighters were killed in combat in Syria between September 30, 2012, and February 16, 2016. Since the group’s leadership has every reason to downplay losses, this figure must serve as an absolute minimum number killed — the actual toll is likely higher. Indeed, over the same time period, these sources reported a seemingly high number of young Lebanese males dying from traffic accidents or sudden heart failure; such announcements could be an attempt to hide the real number of Hezbollah fatalities, though neither this conclusion nor the veracity of the traffic/cardiac death tolls can be established with certainty.
The sources further identify 49 of the deceased as “al-Qaid al-Shahid” (martyred leader/commander) or “al-Qaid al-Maydani” (field leader/commander). This indicates they served as commanding officers, distinguishing them from rank-and-file fatalities.
The open-source material is extremely secretive about where exactly these fighters died in Syria; of the 865 known fatalities, place of death was disclosed for only 32. And in several cases, this information was extracted from Persian-language material rather than Lebanese sources.
The data also shows several fatality peaks: May 2013 (88 fighters killed), July 2014 (36), February 2015 (34), and a relatively high average of 36 fatalities per month from May 2015 to January 2016. The December 2013 peak shown in figure 1 is misleading because the sources announced nearly a hundred fatalities all at once, even though the actual month of death/burial for many of them occurred earlier.
Figure 1. Hezbollah and IRGC Combat Fatalities in Syria
These fatality spikes might also indicate place of death for fighters even when that information is not openly disclosed, since the peaks in funerals tend to coincide with major battles in Syria:
In May 2013, Hezbollah and the Syrian army launched a joint offensive against the city of al-Qusayr, strategically located between Damascus and the Mediterranean coast and close to the Lebanese border.
Although there is no record of Hezbollah operations in July 2014, the increased fatalities that month coincided with the Islamic State’s seizure of the Shaer gas field in Homs governorate on July 17, and its capture of the 17th Army Division’s base near Raqqa on July 25.
The February 2015 fatalities likely reflect the joint offensive by the rebel Free Syrian Army and al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra against Hezbollah strongholds in western Qalamoun, near the Lebanese border.
The high monthly fatality rate in the last half of 2015 includes the battle for Zabadani last July; it also marks the run-up to and aftermath of the first Russian air campaign in Syria, which began in late September 2015 and ushered in a period of increased offensives by regime forces and their allies.
HEZBOLLAH LOSSES VS. IRGC LOSSES
The fluctuations in Hezbollah and IRGC fatality rates appear to reflect the Islamic Republic’s shifting tactical considerations in Syria. Initially, Tehran preferred to have Hezbollah play the direct combat role in Syria rather deploying large-scale IRGC forces there, which could have provoked other external actors to follow Iran’s example. This resulted in large Hezbollah fatality rates and very few IRGC fatalities.
Eventually, however, increased Hezbollah fatalities in Syria threatened to upset the military balance in Lebanon and even tempt outsiders to exploit Hezbollah’s preoccupation abroad in order to teach the group a lesson back home. As a result, the IRGC apparently began deploying many more of its own troops to Syria, as reflected by the sharp decrease in Hezbollah fatalities and the simultaneous sharp increase in IRGC fatalities after September 2015. Not coincidentally, this was also when the Russian air campaign began — all of which suggests that there are limits to how much Hezbollah can do in Syria to advance Tehran’s objectives.
WHERE DID THESE SLAIN FIGHTERS COME FROM?
Despite Hezbollah’s secretiveness regarding many aspects of its Syria deployment and fatalities, its funeral announcements provide detailed information about the native governorate, district, and village of origin for most of the fighters killed in combat. That information in turn provides limited but valuable insights into the militia’s recruitment base in Lebanon and force composition in Syria.
Of the 865 fighters reportedly killed, 682 hailed from the Nabatiyah, Beqaa, and South governorates. No governorate was indicated for 136 fighters; 10 others originated from villages on the Syrian side of the border, while the remainder were born in the Mount Lebanon, Beirut, and North governorates.
Figure 2. Total Hezbollah Combat Fatalities by Native Governorate
Lebanon lacks an official census, so it is impossible to analyze these numbers relative to the total populations or Shiite composition of each governorate. In general, however, most of Hezbollah’s combat fatalities seem to have originated from Shiite-majority governorates and subdistricts. Several districts showed particularly high rates: Baalbek (158 fatalities) and Hermel (43) in Beqaa governorate; Bint Jbail (79), Marjeyoun (52), and Nabatiyah (122) in Nabatiyah governorate; and Sidon (37) and Tyre (137) in the South governorate. (Note that for the purposes of this study, Beirut governorate, which is not subdivided, counts as both a governorate and a district.)
Figure 3. Hezbollah Combat Fatalities by Native District, January 2012-February 2016
A further breakdown of the data shows that some districts had a mixed pattern of city dwellers and village dwellers killed in combat:
In Baalbek district, 44 of the 158 fatalities were natives of Baalbek City, 13 were from Brital, 9 from al-Khraibe, 8 from Younine, and 6 from al-Bozalieh. The remaining 78 were recruited from 36 distinct villages.
In Hermel district, the majority of the 43 combat fatalities were city dwellers: 23 were from Hermel City, 14 from al-Nabi Shayth, and the remainder from al-Qasr and Zita.
In other districts, however, most slain Hezbollah fighters hailed from the countryside, with fatalities more or less evenly distributed among various villages and smaller towns:
In Bint Jbail district (79 fatalities), Aita al-Shab (12) and Beit Lif (11) suffered the most losses. Bint Jbail City lost 7 fighters, while the remaining 49 fatalities originated from 19 distinct villages.
In Marjeyoun district (52), Majdel Selm (10) and Meis al-Jabal (10) suffered the most losses; the remaining 32 fatalities hailed from 7 other villages.
In Nabatiyah district (122), Nabatiyah City suffered 14 combat fatalities; the remaining 108 were distributed among 42 villages.
In Sidon district (37), only 3 originated from Sidon City itself; the remainder were distributed among 16 villages.
In Tyre (137) too, only 5 originated from Tyre City, while the remainder came from 42 distinct towns and villages. Only Shahabia (12) and Majdel Zoun (10) suffered double-digit fatalities.
The data therefore provides some indication of Hezbollah’s force structure. The wide distribution in place of origin for fighters killed during any given period (including the peak periods discussed above) indicates a mixed force composition. This stands in contrast to the provincial force structure of the IRGC, in which entire units are often composed of personnel from the same area.
Figure 4. Monthly Hezbollah Combat Fatalities by Native Governorate
Again, lack of official, reliable information about Lebanon’s demography prevents firm conclusions regarding the impact that these combat fatalities might have on Hezbollah’s ability to defend its positions back at home against adversaries. However, to the extent that its losses are more or less evenly distributed among rural villages and small towns, with few communities suffering double-digit losses, then the militia may have preserved its manpower base.
Ali Alfoneh is the author of Iran Unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards Is Turning Theocracy into Military Dictatorship (AEI Press, 2013).
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/hezbollah-fatalities-in-the-syrian-war#.VsuLscIpxA4.twitter
I would reject the idea that Hezbollah’s fighting in Syria is to further Iran’s interests. That it may also do that, is a secondary fact. The important facts are,if Syria falls to the jihadis,Lebanon would be completely surrounded by enemy states. And the next assured target of the jihadis would be Lebanon,and Hezbollah in Lebanon in particular.So unlike what the US always claims about their military involvement in the MENA ,is on the other hand, very true for Hezbollah (fight them over there instead of here). Either they fight the jihadis in Syria,or they must fight them inside Lebanon itself. The same is also true for Iran’s and Russia’s military involvement in Syria.The jihadis make no secret of what their plans are. Once they gain power in the Arab states,they intend to attack Iran and Russia themselves.It isn’t a question of “maybe we just give them Syria.And then the war is over”.Their plans are for the entire Muslim World.And any part of the World they can claim as old Islamic territory.The deaths of Hezbollah fighters in Syria,while tragic,isn’t to protect Iran or Syria. But instead to protect their homes, and save their families in Lebanon from being slaughtered by jihadis.
pk…
*And here we come to a number of the monster’s multiple destructive tentacles: The people-mass eventually has to be reduced to about a billion or two. Easier to control and manage. The Rockefeller / Kissinger dictum of the fifties and sixties – from which emerged an economy of control: GMO-agriculture that can inflict famine, infertility (as already tested in the 1990s in India) and deadly or debilitating diseases. Another tentacle spreads biological and disease warfare, take the Ebola epidemic in West Africa in 2014 and the recent Zika outbreak, not coincidentally emerging and being tested in Central and South America, notably in Brazil, a country Washington wants to subdue and dominate, much like they have managed in Argentina with an ‘election coup’
(http://www.globalresearch.ca/argentina-a-quiet-neoliberal-coup-detat-in-latin-americas-southern-cone/5492654
http://www.globalresearch.ca/argentina-revisited-one-month-on-towards-a-neoliberal-democratic-dictatorship/5502615).
The Zika virus has been created in the early sixties, is patented and is owned by the Rockefeller Foundation
(http://www.globalresearch.ca/who-owns-the-zika-virus/5505323).*
………………………………………………………………
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article44256.htm
Ebola = Hoax
(In most cases misdiagnosed malaria if anything at all)
Zika = Hoax
(The Zika virus has been around since ages and is considered almost harmless. Currently used to cover-up microcephaly cases from over-vaccinations and heavy pesticide straying in Brazil)
The U.S., Japan and India Are Planning Naval Exercises Near the Tense South China Sea
gotta wonder, whats that elephant doing in sco, brics ?
or is that a trojan ?
hehehehe
http://time.com/4245929/u-s-japan-india-naval-exercise-south-china-sea/
I know, it is a strange thought, but India has the ambition to be an independent & sovereign country. That is why India likes to position itself carefully between the great power blocks. Respect.
i’ll try to answer your posts in an open thread
….
denk on March 05, 2016 · at 12:09 am UTC
i’ll try to answer your posts in an open thread
Something I have not seen addressed at this site is the ties of the British commonwealth/Commonwealth of nations – the ties between the countries that play cricket as a national sport.
From wikipedia for what its worth…
The Commonwealth dates back to the mid-20th century with the decolonisation of the British Empire through increased self-governance of its territories. It was formally constituted by the London Declaration in 1949, which established the member states as “free and equal”.[6] The symbol of this free association is Queen Elizabeth II who is the Head of the Commonwealth. The Queen is also the monarch of 16 members of the Commonwealth, known as Commonwealth realms. The other members of the Commonwealth have different persons as head of state: 32 members are republics and five members are monarchies with a different monarch.
peter au
*Something I have not seen addressed at this site is the ties of the British commonwealth/Commonwealth of nations*
your point is ?..
Presently, 6 comments, 1 comment pertaining to the post, PK’s interview, 5 completely unrelated, except for a few acronyms. Things are getting strange at the Vineyard.
Moderators have asked commenters to post Off Topic comments in the Moveable Feast Café thread. I have no explanation to why readers keep posting OT. It can’t be that hard to find the MFC thread, or a thread that deals with the subject of the comment.
the question on india is prompted by this para…
*The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), including new members India and Pakistan, …*
to me it kinda like begging the question.
even tho it isnt about economics. ?
Off-topic comments are posted here for a very good reason – in the absence of a forum here where members of the community can chat and inform each other of recent developments of interest, they post in the last article published here, so that their comments aren’t ignored/buried in some “old” article from days ago.
Please note … we have the ‘Moveable Feast Cafe’ which is an open thread with two new open threads per week. Your off topic comments can go there. Mod-hs
that was me !