It is pretty clear what took place yesterday night. Even if you don’t read Russian, the following chart released by the Russian Ministry of Defense says it all:
Basically, 4 Israeli aircraft were sent on a bombing mission against targets near the Russian facilities in Khmeimim and Tartus (which, by itself, is both stupid and irresponsible). The Israelis *deliberately* did not warn the Russians until less than a minute before the attack took place, thus the Russians did not have the time to tell the crew of the Il-20 electronic warfare aircraft, which was on approach for a landing, to take evasive action. When the Syrian S-200 fired their missiles to intercept the incoming missiles, the Israelis F-16 used the Il-20, which has a much bigger radar cross section, to hide themselves resulting in the loss of 15 lives and one aircraft.
Typical Israeli “cleverness”.
The Russian MoD placed the full blame on the Israelis and declared that this attack was “dastardly”, the Israeli actions as “hostile” and said that Russia “reserves the right” to respond with “adequate counter-actions”.
This is one of these rare opportunities when there is, I believe, a viable and logical option to respond: tell the Israelis that from now on any of their aircraft approaching anywhere near the Russian forces will be shot down.
Will the Russians do that?
I doubt it. Why? Because of the very powerful pro-Zionist 5th column in Russia.
I am pretty sure that the Russian military would love to take such an measure but, unfortunately, they are limited in their actions by the 5th columnists in the Russian government.
We shall see. If Russia does nothing, it will be interesting to see how those who deny the existence of a pro-Zionist 5th column in Russia will explain this.
The Saker
PS: the only positive effect from this tragedy is that this will go a long way to trash the image of Israel in the Russian public opinion (which is constantly subjected to pro-Zionist propaganda in much of the Russian media).
UPDATE1: there we go: Putin is already “downgrading” the gravity of what happened. He has just declared that “the Israeli jet didn’t down our aircraft” and spoke of “tragic circumstances“. True, he did add that the Russians will take measures that “everyone will notice” but I am personally dubious about these “steps”. I hope that I am wrong. We will find out soon.
UPDATE2: I am watching the Russian media and I have to report that Zionist propagandists (Russian liberals and Jewish commentators) look absolutely *terrible*: they are desperately trying to blame everybody (the Syrians, Hezbollah, and even the Russians) except for Israel. This will not sit well with the Russian public.
Russia is being sucked into a quagmire. Get out now before this wrecks Russia. Is Putin turning into a Gorbachev?
Privet Saker,
the question I would ask is: what are the recent Russian immigrants in Israel thinking and saying?
Don’t these people have business and cultural connections with Russia? What I can say from my emigrant experience is that the last thing a relative newcomer to a country wants is a crisis between the old country and the new.
The follow up question would be: is there an Anglophile group of people within the Israeli Air Force interested in sabotaging the “complex” (as you have said, correctly, in my opinion) relationship between post-soviet Russia and the Jewish State?
The only light at the end of the pitch-black tunnel that is Israeli, I can see, is the possibility that if one day, decency and humanity sinks into that place, they, the Israelis could see in Russia an enabler for negotiations based on peace and dignity with the Palestinians and Arab countries. In fact, Russia would be the ideal umpire in such negotiations, because it is the only country that has the respect of patriotic arabs. A respect that it has conquered fo itself with the blood it left on Syrian soil and sky.
This is “optimism of the will” of course which always comes in sync with the “pessimism of reason”.
But what I would like to know, who are the forces that want to nip that remote possibility, but still a possibility in the future?
Cheers, compa…
thats it right there… a perfect and crucial corollary in the mix: Russia is and would be the perfect umpire if the Israelis wanted peace with its neighbours.
but my contention is that they do not..not now or ever. just about all of them. all opposite peace ideology and possibilities in the Israeli realm are minute to vanishing
I don’t see that it is at all ‘certain’ exactly what happened…nor what actually brought down the Russian spy plane…
First of all the Russians announced long ago that the Syrian air defense system has been ‘fully’ integrated into the Russian IADS in Syria…it is hard to see how Syrians rocket crews would be firing without coordination or even direct involvement of Russian officers…
Second…the S200 would not have locked on to a friendly aircraft squawking its IFF code [identification friend or foe…an encrypted and automatic aircraft transponder signal]…that is a very big issue right there…combined with the presumed competence of the entire Syrian airspace under Russian chain of command…it is very hard to envisage such a scenario…
Yes friendly fire accidents do happen…but usually in a much more complex battle environment with a lot more elements than just one airplane…
What is abundantly clear is that the entire incident was carefully preplanned and involved not just Israel but also the French ship and British aircraft in the area, almost certainly flying out of the nearby Akrotiri RAF base in Cyprus…
There is also the issue that the above infographic from the MoD does not actually confirm what is being said about the Israeli F16s being in the Ilyushin’s radar shadow at the time of the SAM hit…in fact it shows just the opposite…look at the distance between the ‘x’ where the Ilyushin was hit and the flight path of the F16s…they are separated by about 30 km…that is nowhere near being in the radar shadow…which would be a distance of maybe fractions of a km…
Also the Israeli’s claim that they were already on their way back at the time the Russian aircraft was hit…and the graphic exactly confirms that…we see that the flight paths of the Israeli planes and the Russian aircraft are very close at one point…right when the Ilyushin makes a right turn to the north…even if the Israeli jets and the Russian aircraft had arrived at this juncture at the same moment in time, the Russian aircraft then proceeded flying north for about 30 km before being hit…and the Israeli jets which made a south turn at the same spot would by then have been at least 40 km south…for a total separation of 70 km at the time the Ilyushin was hit…
This does not add up in any way shape or form…so why must we assume that this ‘official’ story is in fact what happened…there is no reason to, and many reasons against…
Why should we fail to consider that the French frigate Auvergne did not bring down the Russian airplane with its very capable SAM system, the Aster 15 and 30, of which it can carry 16…?
The British aircraft in the area at the time could also have brought down the Ilyushin quite easily with an air to air missile strike…
The Russians recorded the missile launches from the French ship and also tracked the British aircraft…
We can in fact be reasonably confident that the incident was a deliberately planned provocation, being timed precisely to coincide with the breakthrough deal in Sochi on the Idlib pocket…this deal is actually a huge win for Russia and Syria…it basically brings Turkey fully to heel on Idlib without firing a shot…
If you look at a map of Idlib, a 15 to 20 km wide zone around its periphery would account for easily half its entire area…this area now legally and effectively is back in Syrian hands…under the security guarantee of the Russians, who will enforce this zone jointly with the Turks…
The significance of this hasn’t sunk in for most people other than the neocons and regime change dead enders, who rightly see it as a nail in the coffin of Idlib, and by extension the entire Syria project…
They had been using Erdogan as a cat’s paw on the Idlib issue and surely put huge pressure on him to not do such a thing as giving away half of Idlib with the stroke of a pen…that they are mighty pissed would be an understatement…
For his part Erdog finally had to make a choice after dancing on the head of a pin for the last couple of years…the US continues to build a hostile Kurdish statelet on Turkey’s underbelly…while the so-called Manbij ‘roadmap’ has turned out to be so much BS…as per usual US broken promises…
In the meantime, Turkey needs Russian gas and the money that goes with that, Russian nuclear power and Russian military gear…she also needs Chinese investment and financial help and both Russia and China are unbending on the issue of the terrorists in Idlib, thousands of which are Chinese and Russian nationals…there can be no more fancy footwork for the Sultan…
So the provocation came very quickly…a hail Mary to try to undo the big win that happened in Sochi just hours before…Russia is doing exactly the right thing by putting the blame on Israel because Israel was committing aggression at the time…
Blaming France or Britain on the other hand would cause a diplomatic meltdown and also a huge roar for vengeance among the Russian people who have had enough of being disrespected by two bit actors like Britain and France…
Israel is going to quietly go along with this cover story and Russia is going to take some very concrete steps to increase security in the Syrian airspace, just as they did after the Turkish downing of the Russian jet in 2015…
I remain of the opinion that (1) the IL-20 and its experienced ELINT crew were the prime target in the whole ‘raid’ and (2) the Israeli F-16s were only a distraction – an Israeli F-35 did the deed. Remember, there is a whole operational squadron of Israeli F-35s, which has been practicing being stealthy over Syria and Lebanon (and maybe Iran).
My opinion is that the Israeli F-16s were used to keep the Russian/Syrian radar operators focused on them and ignoring the rest of the area. The main mission of the F-16s could have been to draw-out the Syrians to fire S-200 missiles at them. Without that, the downing of the IL-20 by ‘nothing’ would have been too obvious.
If the Syrians were firing S-200 missiles towards the general area, there would be ‘plausible deniability’ that a S-200 took-out the IL-20. A quick ‘snap shot’ by the radar-invisible F-35 could explain the issue of a Syrian missile ‘ignoring’ a Russian IFF transmission from the IL-20. Meanwhile, the F-16s flew around looking busy…
This might even explain why the Russians noticed a ‘firing’ from the French frigate around that time. Their radars may have picked-up the (non-stealthy) missile from the F-35 and assumed it was from the frigate. This could have even been a part of the overall plan, if the Israelis wanted to spark a NATO incident when the Russians fired back.
(My condolences to the families of the IL-20 crew.)
Very good explanation of may have happened. Now, let’s wait for Russian response. I am sure there will be one…
You must have a good understanding of those graphics to be able to make this kind of conclusion… I don’t. I am still thinking about your comment, and it seems that not ‘blaming France or Britain’ for the downing, just to avoid a ‘diplomatic meltdown’, does not make much sense. In my simple opinion, this would be a good moment to expose them – Russia should not think about using this as a blackmail for getting some diplomatic advances as I do not believe it would not work. They are not trustable, and the opportunity to put them down is now.
I prefer to believe that the ishreali did it. It makes sense as they are the ones to lose the most with the end of the wars in the ME.
“Once we squeeze all we can out of the United States, it can dry up and blow away.” Benjamin Netanyahu, 2002
“WE, THE JEWISH PEOPLE, CONTROL AMERICA. AND THE AMERICANS KNOW IT.”
— Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon
October 3, 2001
Get out of the way gentiles–we are taking over the world on behave of our benefactors–who will remain anonymous–until they choose to come forward.
He has just declared that “the Israeli jet didn’t down our aircraft”
And Putin is factually correct. For the Israeli jet to down the Russian aircraft, it would have to have fired an air-to-air missile at it.
Current evidence suggests that the Il-20 was downed by a Syrian SAM fired at the Israeli F-16. The SAM missile locked on to the larger Russian aircraft as the F-16 passed close by. The F-16 pilot may have wanted this to happen but it was not pre-determined to happen.
Israel is still at fault and totally responsible as i) it carried out the ‘original sin’ of the act of aggression against Syria and ii) it deliberately abused the notification proceedure agreed between Russia and Israel so Russian assets could be moved out of the way. Russia is not the world’s policeman and Israel’s ‘national security’ beef with Iran is nothing to do with Russia. That said, Russia would be happy to mediate between them to give rise to a peaceful political solution but Israel doesn’t want peace.
Dear Saker,
I am certain President Putin and Russia’s military leaders will come up with a solid plan in response to that dastardly incident. As you point out in your second update, the Zionist fifth column speakers are struggling with this incident. That was one of my first thoughts too when I learned about the incident. There is not much they can do at this point in time because the Russians are very patriotic and will move closer together. We remember how Americans came together behind G.W. Bush (even the ones who hated him) in the US after the false flag of 9/11.
Putin and his generals have the psychological advantage at this point because the people were deeply offended by Israel’s moves. I am confident they will come up with a plan to seriously restrict Israel’s free reign of terror over Syria.
Grandpa always asked: how many times do you let a rabid dog bite before you put it down?
Why does Putin give S-300’s and S-400’s to the likes of Turkey and Saudi Arabia and withhold them from Syria and Iran? Why let IsraHell bomb Syria with impunity? This friendly fire stuff stinks!
I don’t buy this history at all.
It’s hard to belive a defense missile hitting a friendly target.
Since the Russians decided to not retaliate (now), they hidden the truth to avoid unnecessary pressure.
You are certainly right about the Jewish 5th column in Russia–embodied by the Chabad Lubbavitchers (who also control Trump) and the Jewish oligarchs. Putin undoubtedly harkens back to his roots in the Judeophilic KGB. S300 has been promised to Syria since 2015 but not delivered. I see much of this as Kabuki theater leading to creation of a world Zionist empire, of which Russia and China will be vassal states. Many Ashkenazic Jews (racially comprising the majority of Jews) consider Russia belongs to them anyway because their old Khazar empire controlled much of it. And China also has a substantial Zio 5th column, as does India. As for the Zionist-controlled U.S., I suspect it will prove Castro right when he said some time ago that one day “the U.S. will be less important than Cuba is now.” A comment attributed to Netanyahu was that the U.S. would be left a “husk.” Heck, 18 years of war for Israel have already bankrupted the country…