That is interesting. The US appears to have accepted Putin’s “Russian Gambit”, Kerry and Lavrov are reported to be immersed in complex technical discussions, the risks of war seem to be averted, and yet the Russian Navy is continuing to strengthen its task force off the Syrian coast. According to Russian sources the following ships are being sent to reinforce the task force:
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| Large amphibious assault ship Nikolai Filchenkov |
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| Guard ship (destroyer) Smetlivyi |
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| Admiral Chirkov |
When asked about these reinforcements, the Commander in Chief of the Russian Navy, Admiral Chirkov, declared that “Russian naval presence in this region will grow until it reaches a level which will make it possible to prevent even a suggestion of a threat against the borders or security of the state. He did not specify *which* state he had in mind.
I am trying to make sense of the often contradictory information given by different Russian sources and the picture that I get is that the following Russian Navy ships have either already joined the Russian naval task force of the Syrian coast or will join it very soon:
- The heavy amphibious assault ship Peresvet
- The heavy amphibious assault ship Admiral Nevelskoi
- The heavy amphibious assault ship Minsk
- The heavy amphibious assault ship Novocherkassk
- The heavy amphibious assault ship Aleksandr Shabalin
- The heavy amphibious assault ship Nikolai Filchenkov
- The large anti-submarine ship Admiral Panteleev
- The large anti-submarine ship Kerch
- The large anti-submarine ship Smetlivyi
- The guard ship (destroyer) Neustrashimyi
- The heavy missile cruiser Moskva
- The heavy missile cruiser Variag (unconfirmed)
- The medium intelligence ship Priazovie
Contrary to what it had initially announced, the Russian Navy seems to have canceled plans to send the guard ship (destroyer) Nastoichivyi.
Now I am sure that you also have noticed the large number of heavy amphibious assault ships. This is officially due to the rotation which supposedly is taking place in which the ships indicated in blue are supposed to be replaced by those shown in purple. Okay, but what does ballet mean, really? And why so many heavy amphibious assault ships? Are the Russians seriously planning a mini D-Day in Syria? Hardly. And yet the Russians have admitted that they have created a special “operational command for long-distance naval operations” for this naval task force.
This is what this looks like to me: heavy amphibious assault ships like the Nikolai Filchenkov have two main purposes: deliver an naval assault force or deliver equipment. Since I do not see a situation in which Russia would have to put “boots on the ground” in Syria, I have to conclude that there is a lot of heavy gear in these ships and that the “rotations” occur once the gear has been delivered. As for the rest of the naval task force, it is hear to protect these heavy amphibious assault ships for overzealous US and NATO curiosity and maybe even hostile actions, while at the same time taking the airspace of the eastern Mediterranean and Syria under full control.
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| Aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov |
For the time being his naval task force is supposed to say on station. There are even rumors that the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov will join them later this year.
I am sure that if pressed, the Russians will say that they are delivering humanitarian aid. Right :-)
The Saker
Just a quick thought – that is a lot of floating AA capability; call it a mobile no-fly zone – to protect the transport ships and/or to keep Turkey and the like from violating Syrian air space? I think Russia may be ready to do more than watch and talk if push comes to shove (sorry for the cliches).
Part of the calculus of war would include the economic impact of oil price surges, disruption of the financial markets etc. Here Russia is in far stronger position than the Empire. Perhaps Russia senses a tipping point is near. Partly wishful thinking and partly a hunch on my part.
Thanks and congratulations on your internet milestone!
Hi Saker,
How would you rate these ships vs the US Navy in a hypothetical fight in the eastern Mediterranean?
And when they the Moskva is a ‘carrier killer,’ what exactly do they mean?
At any rate, this seems a very positive development. The Russians may be sending the US a signal that they have no intention of backing down and therefore further escalation is pointless.
There’s going to be so many ships over there. Have you noticed how many chinese ships are over there? China sent her largest dock landing ship, and this one is not for observation; and there is also the Luhu destroyer.
There are also chinese submarines, and back then in 2009 they were undetected by the US fleet during some military drills in the Taiwanese waters.
@Lysander: And when they the Moskva is a ‘carrier killer,’ what exactly do they mean?
Check out this page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slava-class_cruiser
and notice the photo on the top left with the caption “Placement of P-500 Bazalt (SS-N-12 Sandbox) launchers on the Slava class”. You can get more info on this supersonic cruise missile here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-500_Bazalt
Basically, the Moskva class heavy missile cruiser 18 special missiles designed to sink a US aircraft carrier. That is *the* main function of this type of cruiser. In reality, the Russians would use a combination of surface ships like the Moskva, Oscar-class attack cruise missile submarines (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oscar_class_submarine) and cruise missile armed bombers to attack US aircraft carriers and associated battle groups. But even a lone Moskva class is a credible threat for any surface ship. Actually, this ships also come with the naval equivalent of the S-300 and advanced anti-submarine capabilities. So they are really a formidable threat for any foe, regardless of location.
How would you rate these ships vs the US Navy in a hypothetical fight in the eastern Mediterranean?
Most of the Russian naval task force ships are far older than the USN ships. Also, the Mediterranean is Yankee-land where the USN can get support everywhere. Naval warfare is HUGELY dependent on air support. Right now the Russians have *zero*. Bottom line: the Americans and their allies would most definitely win if they launched a determined attack. However, the costs of such an attack would not be trivial. The Russians do have top of the line air defenses, radars and sonars. You can be sure that they have at least 1 or 2 attack submarines including Akula IIs which I consider superior to current US attack subs. So the risks of an attack on the Russians would be huge (not to mention a risk to escalate to WWIII).
What is more relevant is that the Russian naval task force is not USS Liberty and the Israelis most definitely cannot try to attack it.
But again, the real purpose of the Russian presence there is not to fight the USN, but to a) provide airspace control for the Syrians and b) bring in equipment.
@Snoopy: can you give us more details? I have seen no info about the Chinese naval presence. How many ships have they sent and what can these ships do?
Thanks,
The Saker
@anonymous:Just a quick thought – that is a lot of floating AA capability; call it a mobile no-fly zone – to protect the transport ships and/or to keep Turkey and the like from violating Syrian air space?
Yes, definitely, the floating AA capability of this task force is extremely impressive so the range of options of what they could do with it is equally big.
Its anti-air capabilities are indeed impressive. And if a US attack materializes, they can provide early warning and an air picture, so that the Syrian IADS can remain inactive and difficult to target.
They might even shoot down some cruise missiles.
Its anti-air capabilities are indeed impressive. And if a US attack materializes, they can provide early warning and an air picture, so that the Syrian IADS can remain inactive and difficult to target.
They might even shoot down some cruise missiles.