So, after lots of speculation, we now know that the Kremlin has decided to mobilize about 300’000 soldiers from a total mobilizational potential of 25’000’000 soldiers. That’s just a little over 1% of Russia’s mobilizational potential. We are talking only about those soldiers who have an official status of “reserves” and all of them will have to undergo a special training before being sent to the Ukraine.
A few comments about this decision:
- It will take Russia a few months to gather and retrain (refresher courses) these forces and they will not be immediately available to protect the Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhie and Kherson regions during the upcoming referendum on to whether to join Russia or not. The 3rd volunteer army corps is already deployed in the south and could greatly assist in this.
- Putin and Shoigu gave several reasons for this decision, including the very long line of contact, the direct involvement of NATO personnel who are now running the Ukronazi regime in Kiev and the threats by the West to dismantle Russia.
- Shoigu indicated that the UAF lost about 50% of its personnel (over 100’000 soldiers out of a total potential of about 200’000). He also added that most of the Ukrainian weapons systems, which were of Soviet origin, was mostly destroyed. Russian KIAs are just under 6000 soldiers.
- Shoigu also clearly spelled out that “we are not so much fighting against the Ukraine but against NATO plus the united (collective) West“.
- Shoigu also mentioned that all of the NATO satellite capabilities (70 military and 200+ civilian satellites) are used against Russia right now.
- Finally, Shoigu added that NATO high precision weapons are deliberately used by NATO commanders to terrorize civilians.
In other words, Russia is preparing for an escalation of this war in the coming months. She is basically augmenting her forces to a level which could deal with a major NATO escalation in the Ukraine (and elsewhere as not all mobilized forces would have to be combat units; deploying more C4ISR capabilities, logistics/supply forces or civil affairs and counter-terrorism units would also make sense).
The other big news of the day is, of course, that Russia will back and accept the outcome of the referendums in the four regions mentioned above.
Frankly, I have mixed feelings about this decision, but I understand that the Kremlin simply had no other option for the following reasons:
- This decision put away the thorny issue of “will the Russians stay or leave”. Once the four regions vote to become part of Russia (which most opinion polls say will happen), they will forever retain that status.
- With all the rumors in the West about a limited use of nuclear forces, by making these four regions part of Russia proper, not just de facto but also de jure, Russia extends her nuclear umbrella over them (Russian military doctrine allows for the use of nukes if the territorial integrity and safety of Russia are under threat). Here I will quote Putin:
They have even resorted to the nuclear blackmail. I am referring not only to the Western-encouraged shelling of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, which poses a threat of a nuclear disaster, but also to the statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons – against Russia. I would like to remind those who make such statements regarding Russia that our country has different types of weapons as well, and some of them are more modern than the weapons NATO countries have. In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff.
- Furthermore, I have always said that for all my total support and sympathy, the LDNR republics have major issues (including security issues!) and I am immensely relieved that the Russian state organs, including security services, will now directly take over the management of these republics.
Of course, we can expect the usual hysterics and doubling-down from the Western ruling class which already promised never to recognize the outcome of any referendums. Russia understands that and she has now taken the measures needed for a long conflict.
As for the Ukronazis, we can be sure that they will do everything in their power to try to disrupt the referendums. Furthermore, the NATO commanders in Kiev fully understand that the Russian forces will only become more powerful over the next few months, so they will be in a hurry to score as many victories (including the murder of civilians and strikes against the civilian infrastructure) as possible.
I fully expect an increase in NATO+Ukronazi attacks in the coming weeks and months. These attacks will only stop when a) the West runs out of resources and b) then their outcome will bring no tangible results whatsoever.
For the consolidated West, this was has been mostly about optics: PR, PSYOPs, propaganda, you name it. With this latest Russian reaction, it will become even MORE crucial for the rulers of the consolidated West to convince their serfs that Russia is losing and the West winning.
Since the Western ruling classes know that time is running out (both militarily AND economically) they are desperately trying to conceal this by vociferously proclaiming that the Russian “field negros” will get punished (lynched!) for their audacity to disobey the Great Masters of the Universe.
I want to note here that this mini-mobilization will have a important psychological effect upon the Russian society: the “business as usual” mindset is now clearly obsolete. The Russian MIC has received a direct message that it is now also “mobilized”. The rest of the Russian economy will take notice, I am sure. As will the people. I welcome that “change of tone” very much.
Anyway, I will conclude with a few short items.
Some trolls have constantly been begging me to “show them the bodies”. Okay, I found a Telegram channel with enough bodies to, hopefully, satisfy them: https://t.me/ZLOIORK
Next, the Poles have already threatened to conduct their own referendum in the western Ukraine. Who would have doubted that the Hyena of Europe will bite off a little morsel of the Ukraine for itself (especially one which did belong to Poland historically).
In the meantime, Armenia has threatened to leave the The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a decision which, if that happens, I will fully support and celebrate! The CSTO needs a good cleaning, to put it mildly. Russia saved the sorry asses of Lukashenko, Tokaev and Pashinian, and yet all three are still playing that wannabe smart-ass policy of “multi-vectorness” which, in plain English, means “we want Russia to protect us while we sell out to the USA”. The truth is that Russia has much better partners than most of her immediate neighbors and the likes of Lukashenko, Tokaev and Pashinian need to learn things the hard way. That is what Armenia is experiencing right now. Maybe Lukashenko and Tokaev will get the message and learn the lesson. As for Armenia, it will just get what it deserves…
In sharp contrast to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran and even Turkey have been much more responsible partners for Russia (though Turkey also needs a “reminder” from time to time to behave). And since now the Armenians have “security guarantees” from no less than Pelosi (!) they can now sleep in peace with no need for Russian protection, right? :-)
As for the City on the Hill, the world Sole Superpower, it is busy with nonsense like this: “Unexpectedly, the USAF Finds Itself With a Critical Shortage of Pilots While It Says It Has Too Many White Officers“. As the French like to say, the more things change, the more they remain the same…
On a more personal note, we now have almost 1000 commentators who signed up. Thank you all for taking the time to do so! The comments section is already showing clear signs of improvement (already much less trolls/idiots than in the past).
That’s it on my end. Now I turn the comments section over to you.
Cheers
Andrei
UPDATE: Russian sources are reporting that Western PSYOPs are actively spreading FUD all over the Russian Internet with all sort of nonsense about the partial mobilization. Hardly a surprise, so please try not to fall for this nonsense.
PS: the clueless Russian 5th column tried to organize some protests against this mini-mobilization. The outcome? 364 people arrested. 96 in Saint Petersburg, 89 in Moscow and 45 in Ekaterinburg. Which gives you a good idea of how utterly irrelevant the 5th column has become in Russia (except in the circles of power where Atlantic Integrationists are still hiding, waiting for better times).
Here is a photo of Alexander Belik, the coordinator (while Navalnyi is in jail for fraud) of the “movement of conscientious objectors”. I don’t think I need to comment about this ;-)
Has Lukashenko not been “straightened out” since beginning of war? You think he is still doubtful or even has potential to change sides?
I think that he is hopeless and the issue of Belarus will only be settled when he leaves and some other leader comes to power. And no, so far, Belarus is all words, words and more words (mostly silly nationalistic nonsense) but ZERO support for Russia’s SMO. Not even humanitarian.
You have to understand that Belarus suffers from the same problem as all the other limitrophes: they are run by corrupt families who are terrified that if Russia takes over, they will lose their cozy incomes. This is less true in countries like Azerbaijan but mostly true for the rest of them.
Russia ought to build a network of alliances OUTSIDE the CSTO or, alternatively, make the CSTO a two-tier organization split into group A (all talk no action) and group B (real allies).
My 2cts
What would realistic danger to Russia be if Belarus and Kazakhstan
succumb to a color revolution? Didn’t things go downhill in Ukraine
very fast after the Orange revolution?
Both Belarus and Kazakhstan are important to Russia, each in its own way.
What Russia cannot afford in either one of these countries is the West creating yet another anti-Russia as it has in the Ukraine.
As for Armenia, it is mostly irrelevant to Russia. If they want to live in Pelosistan, let them.
There have been news that Belarus is preparing its military while opposition there does the same thing opposition does in Russia, it tells people to hide from authorities to avoid mobilization and if taken to the front surrender deliberately.
Maybe it’s just a smoke without fire so to speak, but I believe there’s no better time for Belarus to prove itself than now especially when everything goes towards major escalation from all sides.
Imagine surrendering to Ukrops forces. You’d be better off blowing your own brains out rather than suffer torture before being killed.
In my opinion you are a little unfair with Belarus, and you are wrong comparing it with Kazakhstan.
My wife is from Belarus and I know well the country and society, as well as I know Russian society
First, Belarus always supported Russia diplomatically and this is not a minor thing, few countries did it. I think only Belarus, Syria, Cuba and North Korea.
About the lack of militar support, Belarus professional army is very small, and it’s deployed in the border with Poland and Ukraine. They don’t have nothing else, only the possibility of mobilise. You can not blame them for not participating, but they are a real ally of Russia. It’s not by chance that Rand corporation pointed it as the only real ally of Russia.
It’s true that sometimes Lukashenko flirted with the West, but he did in a different manner than old other post Soviet. He really tried to over trick the West, took all possible investment and don’t let them nothing in exchange. You will never see a NED organisation in Belarus. All the strikes if 2020 were organised through Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine. There is no NATO soft power there at all.
Indeed there is even less soft power of NATO there than in Russia.
Finally, as society, they are the most Soviet and traditional of all the post soviets, including Russia.
Liberalism does not exist in Belarus, they achieve this strikes but even then most of society didn’t support it.
You will never see typical girls with blue hair in Belarus. Indeed I hope that the break with the West will bring Russia to the spiritual state of Belarus. A real mix of sovietic care of people, toughness and religion.
Also Belarus is a country that suffered a lot, totally destroyed in the Second World War, more affected that nobody by Chernobyl.
And believe Mexico, they are real friends of Russia.
Indeed they are the same muscovites that created Vladimir and Tsarsom of Moscow. The West of Belarus went to some process of Polish-ing in the past but it is mostly erased.
They are definitely not the same than Armenia, Kazakhstan or others.
Indeed in my opinion they are part of Russia, something that Putin shares with the State of the Union
Believe me (not Mexico) I am sorry, I was writing from mobile and the corrector made me write that tip
” These attacks will only stop when a) the West runs out of resources and b) then their outcome will bring no tangible results whatsoever.”
Point a) is correct. About point b), I have some doubts. They are irrational and in s psychosis too much to realize that tangible results are missing. They would continue for shear joy of inflicting pain and death to others. If we look at the bigger picture, we all know winter is coming. May not affect ukies as much as supposed, we wait and see. However, Europe will feel the winter. No need for temperatures to drop below zero. +1 even +5 is enough to produce real misery.
Good luck to all of us. This is not a bluff, smart people can see it.
Putin and Shoigu are drawing red lines at the borders of the four regions. What are the chances that NATO and the collective West will finally wake up and accept defeat (before it’s too late)?
They won’t. I think they’ll actually fight to the last european, not just to the last ukrainian.
It’s all about the money. War’s a racket and this is big business.
@ Saker
Thanks for the report.
Impossible to fight a gentleman’s war with a gang of nazi criminals. Will be waiting for the 800 aircraft Russia recently deployed at the border to launch a carpet bombing campaign before the referendum.
Mobilization is Putin response to the bloody “red line.”
Lone Wolf
Indeed a Ukrainian wide bombing campaign needs to happen,all the command and control bases hit,and the airports and railway hubs,and selected targets in Kiev like the SBU/Gestapo,that place is crawling with CIA scum,see how they like them apples
@ Englishman on September 21, 2022 · at 1:38 pm EST/EDT
Just read that UK intel told Zelensky if Ukraine shells the oblasts during the referendum, Russia would unleash hell on Ukrainian infrastructure. UK counseled him to protect the only two nuclear plants surviving.
Lone Wolf
Very conservative bodycount by MOD. Ukraine had 200,000 to 300, 000+ troops, At start of Z. Captured Ukrainians were reporting units with 90% losses from march to August. Now they are reporting 50%+.
Imo, we should be expecting body counts in the millions, if nato starts sending more “volunteers” and mercenaries.
You are confusing and conflating different figures which describe different forces. Ze spoke of a million men army, Shoigu of 200’000 – that is because they are referring to different things.
I don’t have the material time to break up the various parties involved on each side, sorry, but maybe somebody else will. If not, just assume that forces are like pyramids: the top is very different from the bottom. And, second, numbers don’t really matter. Or, should I say, LOCAL CONCENTRATIONS is what matters a lot, not big figures.
If somebody with a military background has the time to explain all that I would be grateful.
Also, 2000 dead mercenaries seems like a pretty good deterrent to me.
But I am already waiting for the usual “show us the bodies”.
Whatever.
Where is that 2000 dead mercenary figure from? Was that a detail released by the Russians?
Listen to Sergei Shoigu’s interview today. It is on the Saker site. Mod.
We’ll see. I doubt it will stop the u.s state department from sending more. There were estimates that half the recent offensive force in kharkiv were “foreigners.”
local force numbers by Ukrainians was effective in the recent offensive, and Russia is also bringing a potential increase of 50% to 100% in numbers of the “Z” op force.
A 50% foreign mercenary army in Kharvkiv (if true) is a bold move by the NATO powers. The blatant nature of the NATO intervention belies a much more belligerent stance over the longer term. This leads nowhere good.
It is, hence why everyone in the pro russia telegram were shocked.
A major global conflict is now inevitable, the usurious banking apparatus can no longer extend itself. Everyone must prepare as best they can for the coming decade. Life will forever change for each and every one of us.
Those attempting to maintain their control of global affairs, who have centuries of political momentum behind them, and whose secret societies have infiltrated all levels of government across the ‘democratic’ world, have no choice but to make their stand, their final grab for total control.
The losers in this battle will be the worlds most vulnerable, who will starve en masse as supply chains collapse – while those in the industrialized world will fare little better, as a police state technocracy uses the cover of global war to further remove rights and freedoms.
Prepare yourselves, be on the land, seek out God in all things, and speak truthfully now without fear. The lines have been drawn – Christ, or Globohomo / Justice and Truth or Tyranny and Deception.
Be not lukewarm.
What about Nicholaief and Odessa?
After the 4 regions are integrated into Russia via referendums, are the Russians going to stop there or continue for a land bridge all the way to Transnistria?
Personally I think it would not make sense to just stop at Kherson.
Would like to know your opinion on that.
Cheers
We just need to wait and see.
My personal sense is that Russia is waiting for the situation there to get hard for the Ukronazi authorities before she will strike. But that is only a guess of mine.
On very few people really know what the plan(s) is/are.
Russia’s 1,000-kilometre border with Ukraine could be reduced to 250 km if the border is moved to between Berezove and Chernivtsi. Kiev can be part of Russia again.
I wouldn’t believe for a minute that Russia wants Kiev. But as this goes along I’d look for the lights to go out this winter, in Kiev. That will flush the corrupt western Intel and so called diplomatic apparatus from the city. Kiev needs to be punished for her foul deeds in all of this. No need to level the city, just turn off the electricity. My take, your mileage may vary.
I don’t think it’s speculation that Russia is now partially mobilizing. Despite all the previous excuses offered for the slow advance it was pretty obvious that Russian forces were scattered too thinly as the recent offensive proved.
From the early beginnings of Neo-Nazi Batallions and a ragtag of foreign volunteers, it’s now quite obvious that Russia is fighting NATO in all but name and is finally taking this more seriously.
So much for the ‘experts’ then. Let’s leave talk of creating multipolar alliances to a later date as finally Russia is waking up to the approaching danger led by NATO.
If you call 1.2% “partial” then okay.
I don’t agree with that characterization though
It’s not I who suggested a partial 1.2% mobilization as an executive order rather than full. The previous general consensus was that the Russia advance was slow because the Russian forces were mindful of civilian casulaties and structural damage, but now seems obvious that manpower was lacking, which is what we few have been saying all along.
The Russian advance was slow because of the fortified areas from which the Ukronazis had to be pulled out. Russia achieved that. That was never a “slow” advance, but rather a “carefully deliberate” one. Also, this increase by 300’000 will not affect the conflict right now, hence it is not designed to plug any current holes, but to give the Kremlin the resources needed when the (probably inevitable) NATO offensive later on.
And yes, those who were “saying that all along” were like a broken clock: right once every 12 hours or so :-)
You could also say that they were right for the wrong reasons if you prefer.
I just wonder what someone like Zhukov would have said about a “carefully deiberate” advance, because NATO certainly saw what recently happened as a sign of weakness.
If someone had said even a couple of months ago the Ukrainians would launch an offensive that would push Russian forces back, they’d have been laughed at. NATO are not going to get militarily involved with another nuclear power.
Occasionally, the broken clocks turn out not to be broken and as Russia now calls in reservists, something it should have done months ago, I hope it also abandons it’s quaint terms of “intervention” and “SMO” and starts to view what is happening as a proxy NATO war.
Finally, Mr. Putin is echoing the “broken clocks” and is stating he wants to get this over as quickly as possible, because he can see this escalating if it carries on, just as we broken clocks can.
Exactly when did President Putin say he wanted to get this over with quickly?
Ukraine traded tens of thousands of soldiers and a mountain of equipment for land that Russia tactically withdrew from and is now taking back. Real Ukie casualties are likely running 30:1 or more. For reference a loss rate of 2:1 is considered a rout. You think that’s a victory for Ukraine?
Mobilization is simply preparation for continued escalation by the west, particularly in Central Asia with color revolutions, border incursions, and the typical nefariousness of the CIA and MI6, proxy armies, and hybrid warfare.
Zhukov lived during WWII.
You might as well interview Kutuzov or Alexander Nevsky
My reference to Zhukov was in the way Russia cleaned out the Nazis in WW2 instead of a “careful deliberate” advance. Mr. Putin has already told China and India he wants to get this over as quickly as possible, at the summit in Uzbekistan and Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s summit respectively.
The situation has changed. What started as a military operation against Ukraine has turned into a NATO war againt Russia. The only thing missing are NATO boots on the ground. Gone are the days of the western gullible turning up in Poland for an ‘adventure.’ Yes, the game has changed and the recent offensive is not a sign of NATO incompetence. Ukraine lost many killed, NATO lost zero.
I also think we need to be mindful that we don’t start to go down the path of the western media. Tactical withdrawals, military setbacks, or losing ground, call it what you will are not victories and resemble the former Ukrainian “mission accomplished” excuse. Likewise, “we killed a lot of them” and “it’s a trap” now sounds equally as odd.
I’m 100% behind Russia on this; the thought of a continent ruled by the EU and Wall Street is a frightening thought and I think we all realize that if Russia fails to stop NATO, China is next. Yet I think it’s equally important to hold on to reality and not become trapped in propaganda and beliefs. Hopefully, the call up of reservists which many previously scoffed at and said weren’t needed will even up the odds in Russia’s favour again.
Zhukov didn’t end WW2 in 6 months, nor clear Soviet territory in that time. When Zhukov wiped out a German unit, it wasn’t replaced the next day unlike how Ukraine gets rearmed and equipped weekly by the West.
There are all types of reasons and necessities for the pace of this SMO, from political, economic, strategic or tactical which only the leadership have full knowledge and control of, while the public just get to view the optics of what takes place day by day. The Russian state now has its own public demanding to get more heavy with the situation, always a nice position to be in when you are taking military action. Russian allies like China and India are on board, no doubt because of the careful use of Russian power so far. The coming US mid term elections are in November, just about the time that the 300 thousand Russian reservists will be moving into their new bases in Donbas, ready for further operations over frozen Ukraine. Russia just needs to keep the lid on the kettle until then, and the West will self destruct on its own. Why waste Russian troops, when the coming energy catastrophe of Europe will bring about regime change there by its own citizens.
I’m all for Russia, I trust in that they can manage this military operation. It would be out of place for me to speak critically of how Russia is proceeding with its established objective, since I don’t know fully the innermost workings.
I perceive a strong sense of confidence in the nice steady engagement in Ukraine. They know, Russia has plenty of horsepower under the hood no need to floor the petal.
If NATO increases Russia is obligated to do the same. You have to believe all these possibilities have been considered and the flexibility to adjust has also been included.
Also, don’t forget God is in this thing and He blesses and God curses. Therefore, we definitely expect God to bless the efforts of men who attempt do what’s right in His sight. I honestly believe in this regard Russia is more upright.
We have in record folks, it’s not uncommon at all, for God to raise up another nation to chastise another.
He wants to negotiate as quickly as possible, but if it comes to war, we are prepared for the long haul.
The west does not want to negotiate, and must have quick “victory’s” at anyone’s expense, usually Russia’s.
This is not rocket science, it basic common sense.
Asia Teacher
writes
«… because NATO certainly saw what recently happened as a sign of weakness. »
Stop it please with cartoon-like conclusions — that conflicts are a complex matter, not a Speedy Gonzales cartoon. Do you speak on behalf of NATO? — No! Then how that you dare to write you are certain NATO saw it that way? We, that come here to read comments too, are already sick of superficial msm suppositions passed as certainties. This rhetoric trick is not honest.
Let’s not get reality mixed up with western propaganda. You saw what happened throughout the Middle East; fast and devastating. It’s not my opinion or “msm suppositions”, it’s fact. Perhaps you’re looking for comments that reflect your world views? I also write articles and perhaps you you do or don’t agree with those. If you have views on what’s going on perhaps you might like to write an article and submit it yourself instead of doing the well worn social media accusations? :)
There will be no NATO offensive.
In fact, if Russia level NATO command centres in Lviv & Kiev tomorrow, take down a few satellites, this will all go away.
NATO is a paper tiger, even Iran could deal with them.
I’d like to see the multi billion dollar NATO HQ in Brussels levelled. And preferably in the middle of a busy day with maximum staff in attendance.
Also, my understanding is that heretofore most of the fighting on the ground has been done by the Donbass militia. If/when the oblasts and citizens therein are within RF proper, RF military will be deployed differently and also the command and control functions presumably will become joined (Donbass militias and RF forces).
I don’t know how many RF forces are in the Donbass theatre already (about 100,000?) but they have been held back in many ways so now this new resolution is in effect as of today Sep 21st, things can already begin to change substantially on the ground in Donbass whether or not the 300,000 are there already.
It also sounds like some of those satellites are going to be shot down plus Kiev-based C&C units including those manned by NATO-US personnel (which is most of them I believe). Because instead of this being an illicit RF strike from within a disputed province it will now be a proportionate, defensive response to direct attack on RF territory and citizens endangering life and limb.
Approximately 200k russian forces including donbass militias vs 300k Ukrainians regulars at start of Z op, not including Ukrainians territorial defense maybe 100k+ and 10k+ mercenaries.
They are not out of the fortified areas yet and it’s going to take months more to get out.
Actually, they are advancing every day. And that is mostly LDNR+Wagner.
If the Russian military decides to hit hard (like they are doing in Bakhmut) then it will be much faster.
Eventually, the LDNR forces will become part of the Russian military. It will be interesting to see how far the LDNR forces will go before the LDNR formally becomes Russian territory.
“Russia is waking up to the approaching danger led by NATO.”
It’s been my impression that Russia has been aware of the danger of NATO for the past 30 years and has been preparing for the day when they’d have to deal with this. Otherwise, they would not have moved away from the West since Putin came into office. Likewise, they would not have started the SMO, nor now started a mobilization. The Russian General Staff has objectives and a plan to reach those objectives based in reality – not in wishful thinking, like the West. And that plan evolves 24/7 as new events unfold and new information becomes available.
I think there is some tunnel vision on this SMO and Ukraine – this is one part of a global operation; it’s not the whole thing. It’s not going to end with Ukraine. I’m making the assumption that the entire Russian military/intelligence/diplomatic apparatus is in full war mode and will be there for several years. I could be totally wrong, of course, I’m no geopolitical or military expert; I doubt I could even assume the mantle of “amateur”, but I do know a little about fighting and nobody who has been in a real fight and survived (as Russia has many times in her history) goes into the next one half-assed or half-committed – if it’s a real fight it’s all or nothing. The US is running the Western efforts but they haven’t been in a real fight, an existential fight, since the War Between The States, they forgot how it’s done. Just my opinion, though.
Andrei, given that it will take say 2(+) months for Russia to organise the new fighting force, what can it do in the interim to protect those new Russian territories (not sure exactly what to call them: the RF has 21 republics), from increased attacks? There are still problems of the DPR forces getting all the military equipment they need.
I already replied to that question in the text.
Did you read it?
Andrei
If you are referring to this: ‘The 3rd volunteer army corps is already deployed in the south and could greatly assist in this.’ I was referring to the DPR (& also Kharkiv). It can’t be in 3 areas, it would be spread too thin. It’s in the south because it is needed there.
The 3rd corps is in the south for very good reasons: that is were the “action” is right now.
The line of contact in the Kharkov region is stable with very little movement either way.
That could change of course, but I am confident that there is a ready 2nd operational defensive echelon and strategic reserve.
This entire super-dopper Ukrooffensive has petered out.
Now NATO must decide where to throw the remaining forces to get a purely PR “peremoga” one last time.
Excellent decision by Russia to include the Four regions(based on outcome of referendums) into Russian federation. I think this was inevitable considering the constant Ukronazi+NATO attacks on civilian targets.
Even though the Russian approach looks little slow at times, I believe Russians are doing the right thing by progressing step-by-step. Doing so helps them to make better moves and avoid unnecessary casualties.
However, we can be pretty sure(if history is anything to go by) that a final encounter between Russia and the West can be delayed but not avoided.
A generally overlooked factor in all this is something pointed out by Dima on the Military Summary at least two months ago. When Russia and its allies finally work their way through the Ukrainian defences in Donbass, the front line will inevitably shorten considerably thus releasing a large number of allied troops. I am sure it is one of the reasons the Ukrainians are hanging on in Donbass rather than retreating and cutting their losses as might be expected.
The distance from Kharkov to Kherson in a straight line is only 450km compared with the current greatly extended front line.
Re update and internet manipulation. Here is an study of it by some Australian academics. It shows the great majority of the bots are bogus from the West – https://www.adelaide.edu.au/newsroom/news/list/2022/09/08/bots-manipulate-public-opinion-in-russia-ukraine-conflict
Correct.
Most of the Russian language Telegram is massively flooded by AngloZionist PSYOPs.
Saker, You say that you have mixed feelings about Russia’s decision to accept the 4 oblasts into Russia (should they vote to request to do so). What do you think the potential downside is?
You say that the attacks by the West will stop only when they run out of resources and then their outcome will bring no tangible results. But if Russia strikes a decisive blow against the West, I think there’s a good chance the West will stop.
It occurred to me that Russia may have allowed the Kharkov counteroffensive to happened so that Ukrainian forces would be further depleted and further away from the 4 oblasts during the time that they will be holding their referenda.
What Russia takes, she will own and be responsible for.
I personally would prefer that Russia take as LEAST territory as possible and have the Ukrainians liberate themselves from the Nazi occupation. That has not happened yet, and the mix of propaganda and terror has been very effective to keep down the pro-Russian Ukrainians.
Russia will be responsible for law and order, social programs, education, reconstruction, defense, investments, etc. etc. etc. The folks living in these regions will soon expect the same kind of life as Russians enjoy, and the experience of Crimea has shown that even that is hard and takes time.
I guess that by now this is inevitable. I just have no illusions about what kind of “prize” Russia is getting with these regions.
That being said, I personally believe that Russia should, in time, liberate the entire Nazi occupied coast of the Black Sea, including Nikolaev and Odessa. But now now, let them “stew” in fear of such an operation somewhat longer. But eventually a land corridor to Transnistria would make sense.
Banderastan can only be allowed to survive once it poses no threat to Russia.
3 or 4 strategic strikes can end this. Russian procrastinations are all that’s stopping bringing this to a conclusion.
Yes, maybe Putin wants to kill more Nazis as per the SMO but Russia can drive them all west and level Lviv for good measure.
By this time the EU and the rotten British would be begging for mercy.
Russian KIA of 6,000 likely does not include allied losses from Donbas.
Russia sees a long war ahead and us prudently preparing.
Meanwhile Germany and the EU have stated they will not engage in war against Russia despite having already done so.
The 6k are KIA from the SMO.
The Nazi war against the Donbass also killed another 14k
and yes, Russia is preparing for a long war, you are correct.
6k should include donbass militias. Reports on telegram were 2k dpr losses, 2k lpr, and rest Rus armed forces. Not including civillians deaths.
I don’t think there is any doubt these referendums will pass and these areas will be integrated into Russia rather quickly. This changes the legal framework of the SMO and allows for total war against any country that attacks Russian territory. This call up of 300,000 looks to me as the 1st phase of perpetration for that.
There is going to be a short Sitzkrieg before this thing kicks off in earnest. Now is the last chance for the collective West to negotiate. The Chinese are urging the start of negotiations right now.
https://sputniknews.com/20220921/china-urges-all-parties-to-ukraine-conflict-to-cease-fire-and-negotiate-1101044750.html
I know the collective West will again refuse but the only chance of any NATO military victory in Europe against Russia involves the repeated use of Tactical Nuclear Weapons at the very least. Russia knows this and President Vladimir Putin commented on this in his speech.
Are we in the West really ready to go down this road? Does this benefit the average citizen in any way? Are we going to let these so called Western leaders get away with this? Better find answers quick because soon it will be too late.
Do the Russians have neutron bombs?
Yes
Andrei
Well, then.
EDIT: just watching the military-channel and he pretty much hinted at it.
So, let’s assume the Russians were to detonate small yield tactical nuclear devices to protect the nuke power plant, and then to isolate Central Ukraine from everything east of the Dnieper… and use them also to destroy the cities that they want to invade (civilians are gone) to keep down their casualties.
Would NATO go to nuclear weapons? Would NATO give tactical nukes to the Ukrainians?
The Russians blew up Berlin once.
Mind you, we are NOT supposed to have neutron devices. I mean, they are rather easy to do, but Carter stopped it. And, if NATO were to use nukes against Russia (and East Ukraine might just be part of Russia soon) would they be crazy enough to lob a nuke onto Russian soil?
In any event, the Russians soon will have a 500,000 strong army in Eastern and Southern Ukraine. I think by Christmas.
Let’s pray the pragmatic Republicans take over the US Congress this fall. They are corrupt the old fashioned way.
In any event, the Ukes are screwed big time. Putin just pulled a check mate and there are not enough CRM-114s for the Ukes to block.
BTW- if the Poles attempt to take over part of Western Ukraine (give them Galicia, good riddance) then they give much creedence to the Russian claim of NATO interference.
Will the Russian push onto the whole of Ukraine now?
The US may “retaliate with a crushing blow to the Russian army if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine”, says the FORMER commander of US forces in Europe. Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges
America’s response “may not be nuclear” but warned that if Putin used nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the US could try to “destroy the Black Sea Fleet or destroy Russian bases in Crimea” – ex general Ben Hodges
.. are you fucking dumb, Ben? Does this clown realize that would result in an immediate nuclear attack on Washington or New York?
Americans are fully ready to end the world over Ukraine. Absolutely mental.
Well, Hodges is truly a drooling idiot.
Best to just ignore him and the likes of him.
Ben is hilariously high on his own supply. I usually wouldn’t link to an article from the Ukraine today but this level of delusion is something special.
https://ukrainetoday.org/2022/09/20/retired-us-general-ben-hodges-weve-reached-irreversible-momentum-for-ukraine/
This is the level of the leadership in the high command of the U.S. Army! These people are something else. I hope they don’t actually believe the things that they say and this is some sort of PsyOp to encourage the even crazier Ukrainian command.
The casualty numbers that Shoigu gave are regular army for both Ukraine and Russia i don’t think that includes Neo-nazi battalions on the Ukro side or the Rosguardia on the Russian side.
i don’t think that
Based on what?
Please explain how you made your calculations
thank you!
The number have to bi higher for both sides i’t impossible for the Ukrainians to have lost less then 75-80 thousand men and those are just the dead.
As for the Russian side the number doesn’t include Wagner or LNDR troops.
Both are too low for a 7 month war that is this ferocious.
I am sorry but “have to be” is not a part of any mathematical calculation.
Why don’t you simply admit that you are NO IDEA what the real figures are :-)
I have no idea because i can only base it on what has been said publicly Shoigu and Zaluzny don’t give me a call every month to tell me.
Nobody can convince me that the Ukrainians(regular army,neo-nazi,mercenaries,reservist) have lost less then 75 thousand because they are loosing an average of 10 thousand a month with every net month loosing more.
Russia and the Allies have to be over 10 thousand dead.
That’s not counting the wounded.
Ukrainians themselves were admitting to 1000 losses a day a month ago.
I can see your math angle, to create doubt. But disagree on the Russian underestimation of own losses. They are always on the conservative side of either their operations or getting ahead of themselves in any way. Slow, deliberate and calculating is their “MO.”
Anybody can get a general idea of Ukro-nazi losses by checking in on Ytube any day of the week. Lately for e.g. there’s been a flurry of pro nazi propaganda videos heralding RF’s imminent destruction, natzo’s rise to victory, and the blazing US economy. Or other such garbage.
If I’m right, by the recent uptick of these videos, I’d judge their losses in the last Kharkov ‘offensive movement’ as catastrophic. Basically, the exact opposite of what’s out there in Ytube. But an exact number is sketchy and wouldn’t hazard a guess.
“Next, the Poles have already threatened to conduct their own referendum in the western Ukraine. Who would have doubted that the Hyena of Europe will bite off a little morsel of the Ukraine for itself (especially one which did belong to Poland historically).”
I wonder why Poland would like to bear Western Ukraine over its shoulders.
Beyond any emotional and symbolic importance, this territory is full of anti-Pole Banderites (remember Valyn?) with scarse value to the Polish economy. It will become a burden such as Eastern Poland, which is impoverished and increasingly aging, living on subsidies from the Warsaw government.
In fact, Duda was able to be reelected by a narrow margin thanks to the support of Eastern Poland. The “advanced” or “modern” areas of Poland voted massively ot the EU Liberal Trzaskowski
(see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Polish_presidential_election)
“As for Armenia, it will just get what it deserves…”
Well, Armenia has a fundamental contradiction in its cultural identity:
– It was always saved by Russians in the last century (hadn’t been for the Soviet Union, no Republic of Armenia, either Socialist Soviet or not, would exist)
– Its diaspora around the World (USA, Argentina, EU, etc) is staunchly pro-Western and pro-Capitalist. Not the first time a diaspora works hard to climb on the ranks of Western societies in order to gain protection and influence (Jews did also), but forgetting the realities in the ground may mislead them to accept Washington interests as their own in their fatherland.
@ Andres on September 21, 2022 · at 3:51 pm EST/EDT
I wonder why Poland would like to bear Western Ukraine over its shoulders
———————————————————————————————————
That’s not Poland, that’s the US/NATO. That would be the next salient/launchpad against Russia, the leftovers of Ukraine.
Lone Wolf
True. We are doomed, until denazified. There is neither Polish sovereignty, nor Polish military. There is nothing. The question – will these remnants wake up or will they just try to survive.
@ Viola Tricolor on September 21, 2022 · at 4:59 pm EST/EDT
The question – will these remnants wake up or will they just try to survive.
—————————————————————————————————–
The ideological trend for Eurostan is nazification. Russophobia will be used as one of the ideological tools to nazify Europe. As the economic/energy crisis deepens, and the masses protest, the ruling classes will offer them nazism as a coalescing ideology, same weapon they used after the 1929 market crash.
They already have a culprit for their plight, Russia.
All they need to do is to organize the discontent around an ideology that highlights strength and aggression as their main tenets. And they are already doing that. Look at this Croatian soccer fans, in Italy for a football game, marching on the streets of Milan, doing the nazi salute.
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-717315
Croatian soccer fans perform Nazi march in Milan
Hundreds of fans of Dinamo Zagreb were filmed marching through the streets of Milan before their team’s game against AC Milan, arms extended in Nazi salutes.
————————————————————————-
Lone Wolf
Questions for the Saker and or anyone else who can help me re: Poland.
Where can I find any further information re this threatened referendum?
I am new here, nowhere as knowledgeable as many of you and certainly not clear. Is it being proposed that fairly soon certain Western oblasts in the Ukraine could really vote to become part of Poland?!
What would the Zelensky forces say to Western Ukraine succeeding to become part of Poland?!
I would be very grateful for any responses and/or relevant links.
I am also very grateful to the Saker for his committed work in educating me and untold thousands more.
(As to myself: I am new, naive, different in some respects as I am a Catholic, but horrified by the Empire and definitely very, very grateful for this forum
From the Russians With Attitude Podcast:
“Aiden Aslin along with 10 other western mercs were released from DPR/Russian prisons and sent to Saudi Arabia that served as a mediator.
Aslin was “sentenced to death” in DPR (there were not a single death penalty executed in DPR). This was a circus from the start.
British mercs go to Ukraine to live out their wildest fantasies of killing and torturing.
They get captured and, of course, “sentenced to death”.
British tabloids run w/ the stories of “inhuman orcs” that’re about to kill good ol BRITONS, then they get released after few months” {End}
This type of catch and release will only embolden western mercenaries.
Can you guess what is missing from your “report”?
Take a guess?
It’s not my report – ostensibly they received prisoners in return. However they have many many hundreds of Ukrainian prisoners to trade.
If the goal was to use the mercenary prisoners as pieces in a prisoner swap then the announcement of death sentences was foolish – announcing their sentence and then later releasing them is a public relations fail, and will embolden other mercenaries that they too will get rescued if they are to get captured.
Speaking about the harshest consequences for foreign fighters while following up with full scale releases does not instill fear in the enemy.
I do hope the Russians and their allies got everything/everyone they wanted in that swap.
6000 killed Russians do not include LDPR forces and mercenaries (Wagner).
Any estimate of those casualties?
What is the sentiment in Russia regarding mobilization? It’s one thing if volunteers and professionals are killed, but a different thing your are called up.
> the LDNR republics have major issues (including security issues!)
But won’t Russians have to ultimately deal with the mess in any of the oblasts that decides to join?
yes, and they will do a MUCH better job that the rather clueless LDNR security services
Nothing unexpected. Russia was always waiting to see if NATO was going to escalate. Probably concluded a month or so ago that they would, what kind of escalation it was, assessed the risks, and started making preparations. I don’t think NATO has any surprises for Russia, but Russia might have some for NATO, but probably not major. It is mostly a matter of execution.
Russia was always waiting to see if NATO was going to escalate.
Of course they did. Those who say otherwise are just parroting western talking points. And the more the evidence shows these parrots wrong, the more and louder they repeat that mantra “Russia needs to wake up”. There is no reasoning with these folks, they will just peter away over time.
Russia might have some surprises for western adversaries that are major. In July Mr. Andrei Martyanov did a presentation on them, and it surprised me (just a hobbyist). Leaving me to conclude it a stupid idea, to poke or prod a sleeping bear, who just wants to relax…
The data Mr. Martyanov presents is well past “next level” in Russian defense missile architecture. There is no data available to try duplicate it. Making their latest self-defense system developments likely “indefensible.”
/andrei-martyanov-july-aviation-and-hypersonics/
Never lose sight that Russia is learning to fight NATO.
Engineers and tacticians may be asking to go slow to have time to study, adjust and test new stuff and ways.
Emotional Twitter teens warlord may ask for a “glorious” swift victory , but best strategy is to push nato to show all they got.
You must pay to learn.
I understand stuff and men are lost in larger number than would otherwise be if Russia was giving it all away.
Later it may win big to have paid more to learn more.
– Stakeholders management
It’s true that a picture is worth a thousand words. Belik seems to be a benchmark like the metre from Sèvres of globohomoshlomo agenda. Absolutely hilarious.
As for the referendum on the affiliation of eastern Ukraine to Poland. This is all just primitive propaganda of American puppets and emanations of anglozionist propaganda. I don’t know a single person, even from the stupefied crowds, who doesn’t realise that any claim to eastern lands will result in a ricochet of German claims.
A question for Saker.
Why when Russia has 1.1 million active military personnel do they need to call up reservists that need to be trained?
this should be due to the fact that there are conscripts in most units. and the russians do not want conscripts fighting, if possible.
the reservists in question might be more thoroughly trained then the ordinary conscript. but i am just guessing, here.
Let’s be clear: Putin said that if Russian territory is threatened “we WILL certainly make use of ALL weapon systems available to us”. Soon the 4 oblasts will become part of Russian territory.
The USA should focus on these words: “I am not bluffing”.
@ Anton Gorbatow on September 21, 2022 · at 5:17 pm EST/EDT
The USA should focus on these words: “I am not bluffing”.
——————————————————————————-
Anton, the US history is that of obliterating those who are weak. They have never in their short and twisted history faced an enemy of the caliber of Russia. They will shit in their pants before launching an attack on the Black Sea Fleet. They know they have a Russian sub somewhere in the Atlantic that will unleash a nuclear tsunami on them.
I am not worried about Ben Hodges.
He’s several concentric circles outside the Beltway, a non-entity. But they still can use him to bark at Russia when needed. The only way to reason with the arrogant US elites is with force. It is as stupid as it sounds, you can blame their arrogance for their stupidity. They are the ones bleeding Ukraine, as Putin confirmed.
You can sleep well, buddy.
The US ruling classes have a well developed sense of self-preservation, they will not risk their cushy lives for Ukraine.
Lone Wolf
The initiation of the “Special Operation” by Russia was a gamble often ascribed to an overly optimistic assessment by it regarding the strength of popular support for the Ukrainian government, etc.
Moralistically, propagandistically, and of course legally, if perhaps not strategically, an Ukrainian initiation of “aggression” into the would-be “republics” and/or Crimea itself would have been far preferable for Russia. But after its supposed reversals in Izium, and supposed advances by Ukraine further into Luhansk (plus its claims to retake Crimea in a not too distant future), Russia faces the diametricization (an assessment abetted by the reporting of the Western MSM) of its entire operation.
To wit, no longer a “precise, measured and quite restrained” “special operation” into a recalcitrant foreign state, but rather the likelihood or indeed eventuality of an aggressive war against it and its vital national interests, beginning with Crimea, but not limited to that.
This diametricization is, in one strategic scenario, precisely the event that should have been the casus belli for Russia to begin with. The Ukrainian government and NATO, seconded by the Western MSM, themselves now state its not a question of if, but when Ukraine will invade Crimea.
Moreover, the Ukrainian government, Western think tanks, and MSM journalists have all suggested not stopping at Luhansk and Donbass, or even Crimea, but of transforming the mission of Western support for Ukraine into the much vaster (which would be a true and incontrovertible *aggressive* escalation) project of dismantling Russia itself.
Are these aforecited developments and transformations not precisely what allow, arguably “require,” Russia to call for partial mobilization in preparation for a true defensive war against what it has for centuries claimed were its vital national interests: Crimea; Black Sea litoral; Russian border regions and ethnic enclaves and exclaves?
Perhaps this diametricization of the conflict in Ukraine now offers Putin the war he always sought, not least of all morally, ideologically, and legally: a defensive war in which the most foundational elements of what have been vital Russian national interests for centuries are manifestly at stake.
In short, no longer an optional and “aggressive” war against Ukraine, but rather a *defensive*, indeed existentially defensive, war against NATO aggression spearheaded by Ukraine and directed at multiple parts of its national core interests and responsibilities: Crimea; Black Sea litoral; ethnic Russian exclaves and enclaves; the entire Western and Caucasian limes of the present Russia state.
Perhaps this diametricization of the conflict in Ukraine now offers Putin the war he always sought, not least of all morally, ideologically, and legally:…
In short, no longer an optional and “aggressive” war against Ukraine, but rather a *defensive*…
Let me try to put this simply.
Putin never sought war. The ‘Ultimatums’ that he put to the US and Nato last December were designed to avoid war. One of the fears the RF had at that time was the possibility of Nato missiles being placed within less than 5 minutes of flight time to Moscow. This fact is known by both Russian and Nato political and military top brass.
Russia was facing an existential threat — it said just as much — and taken in that light, the SMO is a *defensive* operation right from the start to remove an incipient threat to its security. After being rebuffed by the West on its requests for civilised discussions on indivisible security in Europe, RF found that the West was in fact only playing for time while goading the Ukraine into undertaking an assault on the Donbass republics, not only threatening the lives of millions of Russians resident in those areas, but, if successful, eventually resulting in the placement of those missiles on Ukrainian territory.
By all accounts the SMO has resulted in at least the demilitarisation of the Ukraine. Ukrainian war potential has been severely degraded and it is only able to continue fighting with massive Western aid. The Ukraine’s military is on life-support despite optimistic prognoses by its (spin) doctors.
This update on SMO from Lt.-Gen. Igor Konashenkov just found and thought to insert it here. It’s the latest I’ve seen since the AFU movements in Karkov near Sept.11. Specifically, he mentions a successful action against Kracken nationalist group in Kharkov @:30, among many others.
This one is banned from Ytube of course, because of obvious digression from the hysterical narrative they’re building on there.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/zZ1SaH6nI21c/
There is an aspect to this mobilization that most commentators are missing.
The contract professionals would be reaching the end of their contracts (they already are, people are complaining about boisterous bragging drunken parties with too much money by people who have finished their contract period). The mobilization allows Russia to keep them on board for longer. So.
1. The reserves will be used to be better able to defend the 1000km front lines, which are stretched too thin at the moment.
2. The contract soldiers will be kept on to keep the machine going.
3. Wagner PMC will be using storm troopers recruited from Russian prisons to launch new offensive actions & tactics.
Meanwhile, in the West the talk is that Russia is “mobilizing”…. blah, blah… when it looks like it’s just about calling back reservists. And the Ukraine is making significant advances over the defeated Russian forces.
I doubt NATO can send more soldiers and it is becoming a war of attrition here. If the Ukrainians keep throwing bodies at the front, which what they did as the Russians retreated to more defensible positions, Russia will escalate the War as they showed when they brought down the Eastern Ukrainian grid.. and remember their trains are electrified, so when that happens, no troops can be moved around.. they all get stuck in train stations.. sitting ducks for missile attacks. Freezing the movement of Ukrainian forces is a game changer.
Plus the Russians are getting their small, armed Iranian drones, which means they can now attack small formations of Ukrainian troops when detected, without waiting for artillery to be called. This is also a game changer as it answers the new Uke tactic of moving in small formations.
Going forward, more than doubling the Russian forces will have an impact, since the Ukrainians just don’t have the reserves and are squandering them right now on their futile attacks against settled down Russians. Once the winter hits, the rivers freeze, Ukraine loses power (and heat and trains), can not support its army, the Russians will come to a much larger army, a professional army.
I ought to note that NATO will be freezing their butts off and pretty much getting along with depleted inventories.
My fervent hope is the US Democrats and Deep State do not steal the mid term elections and somehow a pragmatic Republican Congress ( just a bit better than the Democrats, but better in this respect ) will put an end to this nonsense… because it’s bad for business, something the dogmatic Democrats don’t seem to care much about.
@ Christian Heretic on September 21, 2022 · at 3:53 pm EST/EDT
This type of catch and release will only embolden western mercenaries.
————————————————————————————————–
Sentencing a man to death, is no joke. The joke is, to let him go after the sentence.
Letting a man go after a death sentence is the equivalent of pointing a weapon to someone who deserves to die, and at the end not pull the trigger. Reason why the Japanese samurai had so much ritual around weapons, was because you never get a sword out of the scabbard to then not use it. Once out, it had to cut, maim, or kill.
The release of these war criminals has been confirmed. What reasons the DPR/Russia had to let them go, will remain in mystery.
They are now laughing, getting ready to go back to Ukraine. See below.
A shame.
https://t.me/swodki/165894
Это позор.
Трио освобождены.
Волына. Калына. Редис.
“rosich_rus”
—————–
It’s a shame.
The trio are released.
Volyn. Kalyn. Radish.
“rosich_rus”
——————–
Lone Wolf
The only reason for them to walk…legally….would be if they told the truth, and they were there in a training and or support role only. If they return to fight again…they will seal the fate of every captured merc….or those caught by LDNR regs at the front anyways…….summarily dispatched.
Cheers M
@ sean the leprechaun on September 21, 2022 · at 9:22 pm EST/EDT
Another angle, sean, would be what’s coming is a no-holds-barred phase, Russia/DPR might be getting their loved ones before the storm comes. Ukraine has shown their bestial brutality with prisoners, better get all the prisoners they could exchange, and if the Ukronazis wanted the foreign fascists, they could have them. The life of Russians/DPR prisoners is more important than all the foreign mercenaries.
We might never know what really happened.
Cheers back,
Lone Wolf
I reported on the Polish ulterior motives and why when in Warsaw way back in March.
Here’s the article: https://watchingromeburn.uk/news/will-poland-go-rogue-invade-ukraine/
“[…] I am immensely relieved that the Russian state organs, including security services, will not directly take over the management of these republics.”
is that really a “not” or should it rather be a “now”?
it is a quote from under the red “this is not a bluff” statement.
i think this might be a typo? because i think it has confused some people.
if it is me who is confused, i do apologize :)
Yes, sorry, MY BAD!
I meant “now” and, thanks to you, I corrected that!
Thank you
it is a pleasure to have been able to help.
I have so often seen that not-now switch on various blogs, that I suspect it is either a spell-checker or an algo.
On a querty keyboard these keys are not close. It sure does cause confusion!
Some blogs offer an edit button tool for 15mins (eg. WUWT).
Does anyone know how these referendums will take place? Does 100 percent of the territory of an oblast/region need to liberated before a referendum can take place so that all inhabitants have the opportunity to voice their choice?
I can understand that the referendums could probably take place in Lugansk and Kherson as they are virtually fully liberated. But how will it take place in regions like Donetsk (one third of territory still to be liberated with large settlements) and Zaporozhye where most of its population probably resides in Zaporozhye city itself which is under Ukrainian control.
If it’s about getting the voice of most of the region’s inhabitants, this will be lacking in Zaporozhye and Donetsk.
And if it’s electronic via the internet, will it be secure for the inhabitants that still live in the Ukraine controlled parts?
What is the difference between Fit For Service and Mobilisation Criteria ?
According to GlobalFirePower, Russia has 46M FFS, but minister Shoigu says 25M match the mobilization criteria.
Also Ukraine had 15.6M FFS pre-SMO, even without Crimea and Donbas should be still ~ 12M FFS. Why was Ukraine so unsuccesful in mobilisation and run out at 300k ?
Would Russia be more succesfull in Novorosia in creating own defense army out of local FFS ?
Some videos for today.
RT – Partial mobilization begins in Russia as 300,000 reservists are called up (only reservists with military training will be mobilized, not university students):
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/mobilization_Finoshina_2109:b
Donbass Republics, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions to hold vote on joining Russia (yesterday’s huge news, for anyone that missed it):
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/vote_upcoming_2009:2
Russian VDV troops fighting in the special military operation:
https://rutube.ru/video/96911f28d5062547c49b653892bc9ccf/
Various Russian military units battling the enemy:
https://rutube.ru/video/23e3c2c0e4e09b14a0fe90db14d89f63/
Russian Su-25 aircraft strike military targets:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/SU25JET:c
Russian Buk & Osa SAM systems destroy Kiev regime military targets:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/BUK-OSA:e
“Shoigu also mentioned that all of the NATO satellite capabilities (70 military and 200+ civilian satellites) are used against Russia right now.”
Do the Russians have some means to inflict some damages to these satellites, and if yes when would they want to use it? I guess whatever might happen with those military satellites, it will not be disclosed?
Thank you again for all your analysis
Reinforcement — or partial mobilisation if you like — of/for the SMO is only natural to my mind. The liberated areas are larger than Bulgaria with a 1000 km front; with only two, the LDNR republics, having fully trained militias to protect and defend them. A total force of around 150 000 men would be hard-pressed to do the job properly.
It is interesting that although RF has one million people on active service, it chose to mobilise reserves. I reckon it’s a matter of priority and superb force planning: defence of the homeland comes first and always — removing 300 000 men for the SMO would reduce the ‘ready’ active forces by a third; forces that may be needed for any pressing contingency elsewhere.
Some people are wont to see the partial-mobilisation as a sort of planning failure on the part of the RF; I see it as a measured and thoroughly thought-out response to events in the Ukraine. They obviously anticipated the referenda in the liberated regions among other developments. The newly-mobilised will need several months to get up to speed, of course, but don’t forget that around 40 000 men have already been exercised in Vostok 2022, and, I presume, ready for quick deployment to the Ukraine should the need arise in the interim.
“It is interesting that although RF has one million people on active service, it chose to mobilise reserves.”
i agree. the reason might be this, perhaps:
conscripts are just ordinary young men. they may have all kinds of plans for their future. and they usually have a family, at least parents. and it might not be their first and foremost intention to go to war. even if it is necessary to defend their country.
the reservists in question will likely be professionel (ex-) soldiers. they will also have family, most of the time.
the difference is that if you willingly chose a dangerous profession, everyone (including friends and family) understands that their are risks involved. risks that you chose and accepted.
so if you were a tank driver for maybe 5 years and then became part of the reserve, you chose a dangerous profession on your own will. like a firefighter or police officer.
a conscript … not so much.
so if conscripts die, their families might react differently then the families of reservists.
so public oppinion might be a factor, maybe? and maybe also respecting the individuals will to risk his own life?
it might all boil down to morale of the force? and furthermore, reservists (professionel ex-soldiers) may have longer and superior training over mere conscipts, maybe.
just some ideas. i am not saying they all make sense. if one does, or is at least thought-provoking, i am glad.
“The newly-mobilised will need several months to get up to speed”
i would say maybe two weeks to make sure they can still drive the tank they have driven for 5 years and stopped driving 2 years ago (just an example). but more time to work together within the newly formed military formations. they all know their trade, their profession. they will need to learn to work together in the newly formed units as a team. that should not take several months, i guess. maybe more like two months?
i am not sure, but i challenge the idea of several months for that.
no offense meant.
So I decided to watch some television media about this issue mostly in the English language and some in German (something I almost never do).
The message I got was Russia is losing the war in Ukraine and needed to call up additional forces in a desperate measure to turn the tide. That this force isn’t going to be trained, will be thrown to the front lines and will surrender at the first opportunity, etc.
I think this is a complete misrepresentation. There is a referendum going on right now about several states joining Russia. It is expected to pass by a very large majority. Once these states are part of Russia any attack on them will be like activating NATO Article 5 for the West. Russia looks to me to be preparing for NATO escalation and perhaps an all out war with the collective West. I think by misreading this as Russian weakness an outcome of war between the collective West and Russia is almost assured. I think this is why the prospect for the use of nuclear arms was raised by Russia for it is very likely that NATO forces will have to resort to such arms early in a conflict with Russia.
A force of 300,000 men isn’t going to be recalled all at once. These men will more than likely have specific specialty training that is needed in the 1st phase of a conflict with the collective West (logistical, mechanical, technical skills). The men will have had military training and will need to get into physical shape and requalified in general military skills. This will not take very long.
I think this should be considered very carefully by the West. This is likely the beginning of contingency planning for the end of a proxy war and the beginning of direct confrontation. Just my 2 cents. Be ready!
What worries me, is the addition in the here red accented quote from Putin “This is not a bluff”.
Putin is always very careful in his words on the international stage.
I have my doubts whether this has been added to the general public (It is painful to the senses and brain what kind of ‘news’ is spewed out over us in the west).
The freaky thought is that it has been added for decision makers, who really think that they can get away with anything.
I’m not very optimistic. We have too much of these so-called ‘young global leaders’, who excel mostly in having a deadly mix of arrogance and naivity.
Cheers, Rob
I agree with Lone Wolf that release of main Azov commanders (Prokopenko et al.) is bad move for morale and also justice for civilian victims. Russian officers were recovered,yes, but those characters were equivalent of Goebbels and Himmler.
I don’t know for certain if it’s true or not. But there are reports that the Ukrainians traded Viktor Medvedchuk along with Russian POW’s as well. Remember his wife begged Putin to help get him out. And that Putin is godfather to his daughter. But besides all that. If there are plans to liberate all of Ukraine,or at least replace Zelinsky in a coup. Medvedchuk would be a good choice to install as president of Ukraine under a Russian occupation.He would need to be free if anything like that was to be done. That might explain what happened with the prisoner exchange. If not I totally agree with you,that was a bad move to make.
The prisoner exchange seemed to be made public just after the mobilization order. Both must have been months in planning.
What looks very weird is the condemned sent to Saudia – they have a well known appetite for public executions by sword – 80 in one day a year ago!
Anyway glad to see no public executions in Russia’s name.
https://readovka.news/news/112770
“Also, according to the military, 10 foreign mercenaries were sent to Saudi Arabia, including British citizens Aiden Islin, Sean Pinner, Andrew Hill, John Harding and Dylan Healy, Americans Alexander Dryuke and Andy Hyune, Moroccan Ibrahim Saadoun and Croatian Vekoslav Prebeg. All of them were previously promised the death penalty, and some of them were sentenced to it in the DPR.”
https://readovka.news/news/112492
“Denis Pushilin: public executions of foreign mercenaries in the DPR will not be carried out”
Here is a photo of Alexander Belik, the coordinator (while Navalnyi is in jail for fraud) of the “movement of conscientious objectors”. I don’t think I need to comment about this ;-)
This Alexander Belik looks like a freakshow who would fit in perfectly somewhere in the collective West.
He is an Emo Dissident, extraordinaire.
At the risk of being savaged here, Scott Ritter on the Karkhov offensive :
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/09/12/scott-ritter-why-russia-will-still-win-despite-ukraines-gains/
implying a RF manpower deficit because of a phase change by NATO.
Here Ritter mentions General Mobilization and inflation at 1:17:04
Ukraine Counteroffensive with Scott Ritter and Richard Medhurst
https://youtu.be/08qRsf0UmJo?t=4541
Ritter suggests a mobilization based on the Chechnyan model to avoid inflation right at the wrong time.
Kadyrov expresses his dissatisfaction with the prisoner exchange.
————————————–
https://t.me/readovkanews/42305
«Крайне недоволен вчерашним обменом» — Кадыров раскритиковал решение Минобороны РФ и ФСБ
Глава Чечни заявил, что решение об обмене военных преступников на военнослужащих — недопустимо. Также Кадров отметил, что люди, оскорблявшие честь чеченского народа «ответили сполна за свои слова». При этом Рамзан Ахматович назвал это лишь его личным мнением.
«Я бы понял, если был бы равноценный обмен Мы выполнили обмен на украинских условиях. Это неправильно. Наши бойцы давили фашистов в Мариуполе, загоняли в “Азовсталь”, выкуривали их из подвалов, гибли, получали ранения и контузии. Передача даже одного этого азовского террориста должна была быть неприемлемой», — написал Кадыров.
Telegram
———————————–
“Extremely dissatisfied with yesterday’s exchange” – Kadyrov criticized the decision of the Russian Defense Ministry and the FSB
The head of Chechnya said that the decision to exchange war criminals for servicemen is unacceptable. Kadrov also noted that people who insulted the honor of the Chechen people “responded in full for their words.” At the same time, Ramzan Akhmatovich called it only his personal opinion.
“I would understand if there was an equivalent exchange We completed the exchange on Ukrainian terms. It is not right. Our fighters crushed the fascists in Mariupol, drove them into Azovstal, smoked them out of the basements, died, got wounded and shell-shocked. The transfer of even one of these Azov terrorists should have been unacceptable,” Kadyrov wrote.
Telegram
———————-
Lone Wolf
Good report from iEarlGrey on the prisoner exchange feeling inside Russia. And on the Russian mobilization:
It’s 1941 Again In Russia. Aslin and Pinner RELEASED ALIVE.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffC0mcYcKfM
A little clarification on the mobilization:
By Margarita Simonyan – the head of Russia Today:
“We talked with the Defense Ministry, asked to clarify who exactly falls under the mobilization.
Here’s the answer.
Citizens who fall under ALL THREE points are subject to mobilization:
1. Who served in military.
2. Who has a military specialty that is needed now (which one is needed now is classified).
3. And most importantly. THEY MUST HAVE COMBAT EXPERIENCE.
Let it be for now. I will keep you updated as I understand.”
@russianhead
This is how all the Russian regions need to respond,hopefully they all will:
The conscription plan in Chechnya has been overfulfilled by 254% due to the formation of new military units, Ramzan Kadyrov said. He also noted the presence in the republic of a reserve of thousands of volunteers who, if necessary, “will be able to join the ranks of the defenders of the Fatherland.”
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/26604
If there’s one thing I detest it’s propaganda, even though it’s a necessary evil. Probably, as often it’s so obvious and turns reality on its head. Just as I smiled at the ‘Ghost of Kyiv’ who shot down dozens of modern Russian fighter jets in his old MiG-29 long before it became fashionable to do so, I raise my eyebrow at claims here that NATO is a paper tiger and couldn’t even beat Iran. But for Russia’s intervention in Syria, Iran would have been next and the US would now control the Middle East oil supply, which it would sell back to Europe for a tidy profit of course.
If any one country controls the reserve currency as well as having a 30 country NATO army at its command, it’s pretty well unbeatable. My guess is that having failed to take the Middle East oil supply, the US now wants Russian energy supplies and will do everything it can to de-stabilize Russia whether socially, economically or militarily and try to get a return to the Yeltsin years of plunder.
It’s not an opinion to state that the longer the Ukraine conflict drags on, the more confident NATO are becoming and increasing the supply of weapons and materials into the Ukraine. It also raises an eyebrow to suggest all the General Staff’s within NATO combined are incompetent and the recent Ukrainian offensive proved otherwise.
One doesn’t need to be an expert to know that a US led NATO wouldn’t succeed in Afghanistan, or that NATO would overwhelm Iraq in 2003. Likewise, the partial mobilization now occuring in Russia is not because they’re still advancing. Likewise, the sudden quick referendums in Lugansk and Donetsk may well be that with Ukrainian forces already on their doorstep, inclusion into the Russian Federation would mean any attack on them would mean an attack on Russia itself, something NATO certainly wants to avoid.
We all have our views, sometimes we’re right and sometimes wrong, but we should stay clear of beliefs and not engage in the drum beating propaganda from either side and stick to observable facts not statements based on beliefs.
“If any one country controls the reserve currency as well as having a 30 country NATO army at its command, it’s pretty well unbeatable.”
Except this; ‘they’ are not unbeatable. We know it and they’ know it. If ‘they’ were truly unbeatable they would have escalated long ago.
Militarily, NATO are unbeatable. No one country can win against 30. Both Russia and the US are nuclear powers, so both unbeatable and it’s for that reason NATO haven’t actively joined in.
General Frost, General Mud, and Marshal Time are in charge of the Winter campaign.
Maybe that is why
Lukashenko says Belarus won’t announce mobilization
The president noted that the authorities’ opponents were creating various fakes in this regard
https://tass.com/world/1512127
@ bonbon on September 23, 2022 · at 8:23 am EST/EDT
General Frost, General Mud, and Marshal Time are in charge of the Winter campaign.
Maybe that is why
Lukashenko says Belarus won’t announce mobilization
————————————————————–
Lukashenka is a comme ci, comme ça, wishy-washy nobody, a tin-pot petty tyrant with a room temperature IQ. He’s not a Russian ally, he plays the game to Putin just to save his own ass, which Putin already saved more than once. He’s not someone I would go to war with, he’d betray you at the first sign of danger.
Not an honest man.
Lone Wolf
The united west and western Ukraine have been unbelievable at least to my in their desire for war. Could it be for the following reasons?
Good day,
Do you think the discovery of Petroleum on the Ukrainian Black Sea coast
is partly repsonsible for the current mess between Russia and Ukraine?
The Petrol discovery along the Black Sea coast of Ukraine happened in
July of 2013.
The US and NATO with the help of color revolutionaries over threw
President Viktor Yanukovich of Ukraine, known as Maidan and/or Euromaidan
coup in Feb 2014. Zelensky became president. The Luhansk and Donetsk
set up independent regions in the Donbas in response to Zelensky’s
Presidency and the Maidan Coup.
From 2014 to the Special Military Operation by Russia in Feb. 2022, the
United States and the EU/NATO were supplying monetary and military
support for Zelensky and the Ukraine. As I understand it from several
non US or EU/NATO sources the Donbas republics were being shelled daily
during this period. Ukraine had prepared to take back the Donbas and was
due to invade when Russia declared the SMO (Special Military Operation).
I haven’t spent the time to really sort out what happened. I am deeply
suspicions of the West’s story. They have a long ways to go to reclaim
an even very cautious acceptance of their story. That is trust but
verify. So far my trust is taking a beating.
be well
be well,
william
@ wilav on September 23, 2022 · at 3:40 pm EST/EDT
Do you think the discovery of Petroleum on the Ukrainian Black Sea coast
is partly repsonsible for the current mess between Russia and Ukraine?
———————————————————————————————
Thanks for bringing that issue to my awareness, I didn’t know oil had been discovered on Ukraine’s black sea coast in 2013.
Regardless of the oil, Russia’s taking the Crimea have many other factors behind, mainly related to Russia’s strategic vulnerability. NATO had already planned a naval base in Crimea, a short distance to the heart of Russia. There were also historical factors, no less important for Russia.
Against that backdrop, the oil finding takes an strategic value too, given the potential wealth it could have given Ukraine once exploited. Ukraine’s political stupidity is the only reason they truncated their own future. Russia was willing to have Ukraine as a “western partner” as long as they kept a neutral policy toward Russia.
They decided to become pawns of the west, and that was the beginning of their end.
Unfortunately, I believe Russia will take the entire southern coastline of the Black Sea, all the way to Transnistria, making whatever is left of Ukraine a landlocked country. I certainly hope they do, closing that flank for Ukraine, forever. That seals the oil issue.
Lone Wolf