This article was written for the Unz Review: http://www.unz.com/tsaker/russian-military-options-in-syria-and-the-ukraine/
The past two weeks have been rich in military developments directly affecting Russia:
Syria:
1) Russia has announced that she will transform the Khmeimim airfield into a full-fledged military base with a permanently deployed task force.
2) Russia will deploy her heavy aircraft-carrying missile cruiser (often referred to in the West as an “aircraft carrier”) Admiral Kuznetsov to the eastern Mediterranean to to check the combat capabilities of the ship and its strike group and to engage, for the very first time, the state-of-the-art Ka-52K Katran helicopters.
The Ukraine:
1) Following the failure of the Ukronazis to infiltrate saboteurs on the Crimean Peninsula ,which President Putin called “stupid and criminal”, Poroshenko has now ordered a reinforcement of his military forces on border with Crimea and eastern Ukraine and placed its military on its highest alert.
2) The authorities in Kiev decided not to accept the credentials of the new Russian ambassador to the Ukraine.
3) President Putin declared that in this context, negotiations with Kiev are “pointless”.
While not directly connected, all of these news items point to a possible military escalation which could result in Russia having to engaged her military in combat operations in Syria, Crimea and Novorussia. Thus is makes sense at this point to review the Russian options in all these theaters of war.
The Syrian theater:
There is a great deal of misunderstanding about the Russian military options in Syria. Just as the major Russian military intervention which was initially expected failed to materialize (the actual Russian intervention was very limited in both size and time), the reinforcement of the Khmeimim airbase will not result in a major strategic shift in the regional balance of power. A couple of reminders:
First, the Russian naval base at Tartus is not really a “naval base” at all. It is a port which the Russian Navy has been using, but it lack the capability to dock large ships and it is not defended in a way a normal Russian military base would be. In fact, the Russian refer to it as a “пункт материально-технического обеспечения“ or “material-technical supply point”. It is possible, even likely, that in time Russia will expand and reinforce Tartus, but for the foreseeable future Tartus will not be a major military outpost for the Russian Navy.
Second, the airbase in Khmeimin is located in a very dangerous spot: roughly 1000km from the Russian border and only 50km from the Turkish border. It is also nicely wedged right between the CENTCOM “area of responsibility” and NATO. This is most definitely not a location you want to try to threaten US forces from. Also, this is also not a location which Russia would defend with nuclear forces.
Defense Minister Shoigu did, in fact, clearly spell out what the purpose of the Russian presence in Khmeimim will be: a) to attack terrorists and b) to defend Russian nationals. Again, these are very limited goals which will be attained by using limited means. To be sure, Khmeimim will also become a crucial intelligence hub for Russia and, once the airbase is expanded, the Russian search and rescue capabilities will be dramatically enhanced. For both of these tasks Russian special forces will be permanently stationed at the airbase. Finally, the Russians will increase the size of the runways to make it accessible to the heaviest Russian transport aircraft. But the fundamental characteristic of the Khmeimim airbase will always remind that it will remain vulnerable due to its location and long distance from Russia.
As for the deployment of the Kuznetsov, which is primarily a formidable air defense ship, it will allow the Russians to get a much fuller signal intelligence picture the region and will provide a solid protection for both Tartus and Khmeimim. The first-time deployment of the Ka-52K (which were initially commissioned to be deployed on the French “Mistrals”) will be a testing side show but not a crucial game changer in the war.
All in all, the Russians are most definitely increasing their capabilities and the range of options to chose from different options depending on the evolution of the situation. At this point, there are no signs of a major shift in the Russian position: ever since the “semi-withdrawal” of Russian Aerospace forces from Syria, Russia is still counting primarily on her long-rage bombers (Tu-22M3). These can, if needed, be supplemented by Su-34/Su-30/Su-35 strike groups flying out of southern Russia.
The Ukrainian theater:
The situation in the Ukraine is much more unpredictable than the one in Syria and it has been so for a long while now. Almost every week we saw warnings about a possible Ukrainian attack, sometimes even announced as “imminent” and then that attack failed to materialize. The dangerous thing about these false warnings is that they were not false at all and that these attacks truly could have happened almost any week. Worst of all, there is now a “boy who cried wolf” phenomenon taking place where everybody is becoming bored with the endless warnings about an imminent Ukronazi attack. The problem is that, of course, such attack is becoming more and more likely with every passing day.
There are those who argue that an Ukronazi attack against Crimea would be suicidal, and they are absolutely correct, and that an Ukronazi attack against Novorussia would be exceedingly unlikely to succeed, and they are correct again. The assumption here is that the regime in Kiev is capable of rational calculation and that the purpose of such an attack would be victory. But, in reality, victory was never a Ukronazi goal. Instead, the goal was always to draw Russia into a open war. The Ukronazis themselves are deluding themselves in the hope that they will get to do what the Croats did in 1995 when they, backed by the full airpower of NATO, attacked the (disarmed) Croatian Serbs in the so-called “Krajinas”. In reality, the situation in the Donbass is totally different: not only are the Novorussians not disarmed like the Krajina Serbs were (all their “heavy weapons” were in UNPROFOR controlled depots), but unlike the poor Serbs (who were betrayed by Milosevic), the Novorussians know that if things get tough Russia will back them, including by deniable long-range artillery strikes (as she did in July 2014). As for Crimea, even the most deluded Ukrainians must realize by now, even if they don’t admit this, that they will never re-take Crimea.
The problem for Russia is that while the regime in Kiev is slowly rotting into irrelevance, there is only one thing which the Ukraine can offer the AngloZionist Empire: to become the sacrificial lamb in a desperate effort to provoke Russian into an intervention and thereby make the current “tepid war” between NATO and Russia fully irreversible or even “hot”. An overt Russian counter-attack in the Donbass, or even from Crimea, is every Neocon’s dream come true.
So far, all the Ukronazis were capable of doing is constantly shelling the civilians of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics which, being 100% dependent on Moscow, had to put up with this infamy even though scores of innocents civilians have been killed every day. There is also a lot of indirect evidence that the military capabilities of the Novorussians have dramatically increased over the past year or so and that makes it even more frustrating for them to put with the constant provocations and murders of civilians. The Kremlin, however, has evidently decided that a small and steady stream of murdered civilians in the Donbass is still preferable to a full-scale military operation followed by, and this is often overlooked, the occupation of at least some part of the Ukrainian territory. Indeed, once you occupy it – you own it and you are responsible for it. Nobody in Russia is willing to shoulder the costs of a war and the subsequent occupation and reconstruction of a territory currently under Ukronazi control. Finally, why give the regime in Kiev a life-saving distraction when it does such a world-class job slowly but surely destroying itself?
The paradox here is that the Russian strength is also the Russian weakness: chances are that the Novorussians are capable of not only stopping a Ukronazi attack, but even of an operational depth counter-attack. Thus, it is most likely that Russia herself would not be pulled into an over war over the Donbass. But in Crimea there are no Novorussians, no Donetsk or Lugansk people’s republics. In Crimea there are only Russians and Crimea is Russia. Thus any Ukronazi attack on Crimea would be a direct act of war against Russia which Russia could not ignore or reply to by using a “voentorg” + “northern wind” combo (voentorg: covert supplying of weapons; “northern wind” covert supplying of military specialists). If Crimea is attacked, the Russians will have to strike back, whether they want it or not.
If that happens, the Russian counter-strike will most likely be limited and will probably focus on the forces directly responsible for the attack. But if the Ukronazis use their artillery from well-entrenched positions to unleash a steady barrage on the towns of northern Crimea or if, God forbid, the Ukronazis use ballistic missiles to target major urban centers in Crimea, the Russians will have no choice but to counter-attack swiftly and decisively. And since 08.08.08 it is become clear that the West will *always* blame Russia, even if she is first attacked by another party.
In purely military terms, any conflict between the Russian armed forces and the Ukronazis would be a massacre: all the Ukrainians can bring to the battlefield are numbers, but they are completely out-gunned, quantitatively and, even more so, qualitatively by the Russians. The Russian artillery is currently the most capable on the planet, it is even far superior to anything in the West, and its effects on the Ukrainian military have been absolutely devastating in the past. Russia has an unique combination of UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) and EW (Electronic Warfare) capabilities which are directly plugged-in into the targeting systems of Russian multiple-rocket launchers which can reach as far as 90km into the enemy’s rear. Finally, the Russians have been working for years on advanced submuntions and thermobaric warheads which can be used with devastating effect on armored forces and fortified positions.
This combo of UAV and advanced multiple-rocket launchers form what the Russians call a “reconnaissance-strike complex” or RSC (разведывательно-ударный комплекс) which is a concept first developed by the Soviets as far back as the 1960s. The RSC fully integrates all the following elements: reconnaissance, guidance, electronic counter-measures, navigation and engagement of high-precision weapons.
Now, with the advent of new UAV and counter-battery radars, this concept has reached its full maturity and is now the cornerstone of Russian combined-arms operations. What this all means in practical terms is that the Russians now have the capability completely destroy several mechanized battalions in 2-3 minutes only. And there is nothing, nothing at all, which the Ukrainians could do against this.
The Russians also have vastly superior armor, electronic warfare capabilities, aerospace forces, intelligence and reconnaissance capabilities, training – you name it. The Ukrainians don’t stand a chance.
One big canard is the notion that US deliveries of “lethal weapons” to the Ukraine would somehow tip the balance. In reality, no amount of weapons would make any difference. Russian capabilities today are as far superior to the Ukrainian ones as the capabilities of the US military were superior to the Iraqi military in 1990 during Desert Storm. While in 1991 the Ukrainian military was nominally larger than the Russian one (the Ukraine inherited the entire Soviet strategic 2nd echelon forces), it did not have a war in Chechnia to force it to begin reorganizing like the Russian one had to, nor did it have a President like Putin who as soon as he came to power embarked on an immense military reform whose fruits are now finally showing. As a result, the Russians have now achieved several generational breakthroughs while the Ukrainians are basically stuck with 1980s gear and a completely disorganized, corrupt and incompetent military. It will take the Ukraine decades to catch-up to the Russians, and that only if some kind of highly improbable economic miracle happens.
Conclusion:
The wars in the Syria and the Ukraine are, as is so often the case, largely predetermined by geography. There is really nothing Russia could do to meaningfully and directly oppose the US military in the Middle-East or the Mediterranean. Likewise, there is nothing the US can to meaningfully and directly oppose the Russian armed forces in eastern Ukraine. This is why both sides will try to act indirectly, on the margins, via proxies but without getting directly exposed. While this strategy is fundamentally sound, it is also dangerous because indirect warfare by proxy is harder to control and leaves both sides open to provocations, false flag operations and the covert involvement of third parties. This is why both wars are so frustrating to follow: on one hand all sorts of highly speculative scenarios cannot be simply dismissed, but on the other hand, nothing much seems to be happening. And when something finally does happen, it is unclear as to what the possible consequences might be. Finally, both wars involve highly ideological and fundamentally ideological actors (the Ukronazis, the Daesh crazies, the Neocons) who cannot be counted on to act rationally. Alas, all the theories of deterrence always assume a rational actor. But how do you deter a delusional maniac?
The Russian options in both of these conflicts are limited by objective circumstances and by larger political considerations. I would argue that Russia has done an absolutely amazing job in Syria with very limited means and in a supremely dangerous environment. As for the Donbass, I would be much more nuanced. And while I do believe that Russia took the right decision by not overtly sending her armed forces in the eastern Ukraine, I also have to admit that she also showed poor timing and even indecision in dealing with the Nazi crazies in Kiev: it took the Russians a long time to get the Voentorg and “Northern Wind” up and running and while this was the correct response, it was also one which took a long time to become fully effective. Then there is the issue of the (now former) Russian ambassador to Kiev, Mikhail Zurabov, who was totally ineffective in getting anything done at all (while he was left in place for so long is still a mystery to me). True, Zurabov had nobody to speak to, but that does not justify him cozying up and playing buddies with Poroshenko as he reportedly did. Now that the Russians have finally appointed a competent person to this role, Mikhail Babich, the Ukrainians are refusing to accredit him which, apparently, the Kremlin is accepting with bizarre equanimity. In December, Putin also appointed another very powerful figure, Boris Gryzlov, a permanent member of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, as the plenipotentiary representative of the Russian Federation in the Contact Group on settlement of the situation in Ukraine. It took Russia a very long time, but now with Gryzlov and Babich involved, Russia is finally involving some high octane personalities in the negotiations process dealing with the war in the Ukraine. Again, a good decision, but a very belated one.
Could these measures indicate that the Russians have information that something major will soon happen with the Ukraine? Possibly. I sure don’t know, but it does look to me that they are preparing for something.
As for Syria, the Russian are trying to increase their options, but it unlikely that anything major happens before the next US administration comes in. Besides, with Erdogan still busy with his crackdown on any opposition, it is also unclear what course Turkey will take once the purges are completed.
And then this, just in:
According to almasdar news (https://www.almasdarnews.com), Iran has just granted Russia the right to use the Hamedan Air Base in western Iran. The original article entitled “Russia deploys jets at Iranian Airbase to combat insurgents in Syria (Pictures)” (https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russia-deploys-jets-iranian-airbase-combat-insurgents-syria-pictures/) even claims to show pictures of Russian Tu-22M3s already deployed in Iran. IF that is true, this is very significant. Unlike Khmeimim, Hamedan is safe and is perfectly located to conduct military strikes in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle-East. One problem though: al Masdar is an Israeli project, part the Israel Project, a “pro-Israel public diplomacy organization founded in the United States at the height of the second intifada”. I checked with a well-informed Iranian source, and it is not confirming any of this at this time. The Russian blogger “Colonel Cassad”, however, did some investigating of his own and seems to consider that information as plausible. Other Russian sources are confirming that Russia has asked Iran to allow Russian cruise missiles to fly through Iranian airspace. It does appear like the collaboration between Iran and Russia is strengthening which is, of course, very good news.
Finally, if Erdogan is serious about collaborating with Russia and Iran against Daesh, then one way for Turkey to do that would be to open the Turkish airspace to Russian air and missile strikes against Daesh. If that happens, Russia will have the choice of four locations to launch strikes: Crimea, southern Russia (Abkhazia), Khmeimim in Syria and, hopefully, Hamedan in Iran.
A place to keep a special eye on is the Bombora military airfield near Gudauta, in Abkhazia. According to Lentra.ru, the length of the main runway is 4km (this is a mistake, the actual length is 3km) and this runway ends right on the seashore allowing aircraft to take off at very low altitudes and thereby remain under enemy radar coverage (see image below). This airfield is currently protected by some 4’000 Russian soldiers deployed in Abkhazia who are equipped by the newest Russian weapon systems and who form the backbone of the Russian 7th Base [for more on this base, see here (from an anti-Russian source) and here (including some pretty interesting photographs)]. This airfield is ideally located to become a major hub for the operations of Russian Aerospace forces.
The Saker
Bombora military airport near near Gudauta in Abkhazia
UPDATE:
First, as correctly pointed out, I made a mistake and confused two websites called Al-Masdar (the source):One is the Israeli project mentioned in this article, led by chief editor Shimrit Meir. This website is called Al-Masdar.net. The other page is a pro-Syrian-Iranian-Russian news website called almasdarnews.com. I apologize for this mistake.
Second, it seems that almasdarnews.com is correct. Several Iranian websites are now also reporting the Russian deployment at the Hamedan Air Base:
http://www.eghtesadonline.com/
RT is now also quoting the Al Masdar article thus indirectly confirming it: https://www.rt.com/news/356098-russian-bombers-iran-hamadan/
This is an extremely important and positive development which shows that the military cooperation between Russia and Iran has now reached a new level and which will have a major impact upon this war. This is very, very good news.
The Saker
Thank You Saker for a detailed analysis. Many airfield options for Russia in Syria, but it appears no radical change in strategy, bomb Daesh into smithereens. The Ukraine issue is more worrisome, I can see a Ukie attack closer to the US presidential elections. Then Hillary can hit the ground running with a semi-fresh war to kick off her presidency.
If Russia can find the balance and maintain the status quo for the next 8 or 9 months, I think they tip the scales in their favour permanently. If Hillary can’t kick off a war immediately, I can’t see her able to do it in 2018.
Interesting times ahead, I hope Russia can hold strong.
Yes, I agree. I especially agree with this part.
“I also have to admit that she also showed poor timing and even indecision in dealing with the Nazi crazies in Kiev: it took the Russians a long time to get the Voentorg and “Northern Wind” up and running and while this was the correct response, ”
Firstly it was shocking that Russia allowed the coup to happen in the first place, preventing things like this from happning is the function of security services.
The takeover of Ukraine by NATO is probably the biggest win for NATO in modern time, I can see anything bigger execpt the collapse of USSR, and the biggest loss for Russia in modern time. Even the nazists did not manage to take Ukraine from Russia.
This is an enormous catastrophic loss for Russia, and while Ukraine leadership generally shift between very corrupt and mildly pro-USA and pro-Russian every election term, the war in Donbass and the reunficiation between Russia and Crimea has not only allowed the most extreme pro-USA crazies to take power, in the most total sense over media, education, security service, every institution.
But it has allowed them to really sink their claws into the mind of the general population, and has begun a controlled changed the culture of Ukraine.. Now this has been ongoing for decades funded by people like George Soros, but generally a controlled cultural shift takes a long time, key people needs to be installed in media, in education, in politics, it is a slow and gradual process and the people does not accept too much new at the same time.. But in the case of Ukraine, the donbass war and the loss of Crimea has allowed bandirst to achieve a level of control over Ukrainian culture that would otherwise have taken 50 years.
For the moment the bandits only control the Ukrainian institution and they have little support among the populace yet, but soon, very soon perhaps 5 years, perhaps 10 at the most. The collective mind of the Ukrainians will begin to change and their entire culture will shift to anti-Russian and once that happens it wont matter if the government is overthrown, a new anti-Russian one will just take its place, as the general culture of Ukraine will have become like Poland or Baltics. NATO will have taken a large part of historical Russia and created an anti-Russian Russian there right on Russia border, 40 million Russian turned to hate Russia.
For those that dont know what a controlled cultural change is.
This is the west in the 1950s.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17u01_sWjRE
This is the west today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBFFjRT0o6Q#t=13m44s
The same change can happen in Ukraine in 5-10 years, execpt Ukraine wont go from anti-gay to pro-gay but from pro-Russian to anti-Russian.
I feel like Russia was slow and inefficient from the very start at all respects, firstly, the coup should never been allowed to take place.
But when it did take place it should never have been allowed to finish. A simple thing would be to tell Yanukovich to realocate his government and create a provisorical government in Donetsk, were Yanukovych has 90% support and there were no demonstrations, after which Russia should have told him to declare a state of emergency, saying that foreign elements, corrupt oligarchs and extremists controlled from the outside was seeking to overthrow the democratically elected government of Ukraine.He should then have proceeded to mobilize the army and the special forces, and immediately arrest all oligarchs loyal to NATO, just that single act would get him enormous support, he should then secure as much controll over the media in the south-east as possible and make sure everyone knew this was a USA backed bandirest coup, then he should declare the formation of “Ukrainian anti-fascist militas in every town, specifically in every south-east town, to protect against NATO bandirest encroachment” these anti-fascist militas would act with the support of the government and just beat the shit out of any fascist groups, they would also be armed if need be to deal with oligarch armies, their ranks could also be flooded by paid thugs and special forces from Russia, but likely this would not be needed as support for Russia was at that time, very high in South-east and dislike for nazists and bandirest very strong, so likely these militas would swell by themselves and make any large demonstration or such by pro-USA thugs impossible in the south-east.
At this point the governent of Ukraine would pretty much have been saved, there was no democratic support for the overthrow of the government in the areas of Donbass and the south-east, so USA could not naturally raise any demonstrations there from the local population, and if they tried to move people in from west-Ukraine, they would just be beaten down by anti-fascist militias. And also remember at this point all the USA loyal oligarchs would have been arrest and tried for terrorism and treason and sentenced as such publically.
At this point the Ukrainian government would be saved, and the South-east would be under milita and army controlled(No army units from the west would be used) the demonstrations in Kiev would be useless as the government would not be there.
At this point several things could happen, yankovic could begin to deal with the coup, sezing ore media in Kiev and arresting more oligarchs, leaders and those that economically supported the coup, at the same time as making enough concessions to rob the demonstrators of their motivation.
If the demonstrators were strong and refused to disperse Yankovich could in effect break Ukraine apart, NATO forces would controll west Ukraine and pro-Russian forces, in the form of the army, special forces, and anti-fascist miltias would controll the south-east(All of Novorossiya) Yankovich media could begin to propagate for seperatism, saying things like “South-east Ukraine produces 80% of the GDP and west Ukraine produces nothing but takes everything” and eventually Novorossiya could join Russia or form a new country if the demonstrations did not end in the west and the country remaind divided.
Such options were however lost when Russia unified with Crimea, this was seen as a major betrayal by many pro-Russian Ukrainians and support for Russia plummeted in Ukraine, the war in Donbass made this even worse, as media was flooded with images of Ukrainian boys blewn to piece by what media claimed was “Russian forces” but even if the people did not believe the Russian army was there, the fact is that Russia support people that butchered their children, and support for Russia dropped even more. And today Ukraine stands on the verge of becoming an anti-Russian bastion. With 80% of the populace supporting joining NATO and 70% of the population disliking Russia.(It used to be 70% of the populace liking Russia)
Dear The Saker,
Thank you for the update.
In regard to airfield options – since you published your article it has been confirmed this morning that Russia and Iran have signed an agreement to share Iran’s Hamadan airfield. They have already bombed this morning
https://www.rt.com/news/356098-russian-bombers-iran-hamadan/
and
http://sputniknews.com/military/20160816/1044308860/russia-aristrikes-daesh-amrs-depot-syria.html
Putin also stresses Russia is sincere with building relations with Turkey
http://tass.ru/en/politics/894547
The Russians also have started large military drills in the South – tying in with your last paragraph:
http://sputniknews.com/military/20160816/1044312033/russian-missile-artillery-units-servicement-drills-south.html
Rgds,
Veritas
The Chinese could be asked by Syria to expand the port at Taurus. It would be done very fast. They are currently the world’s biggest port constructors and modernizers.
Piraeus, Greece. Gwadar, Pakistan. Two of their more recent huge jobs.
They were to work on Crimea;s port before the Maidan.
It wouldn’t cost the Russians. China has pledged to do infrastructure work for Syria.
And it would give the Chinese another excuse to bring in troops with their construction people. They belong in the fight against ISIS. I heard a report that Uyghurs are numbering in the thousands now in the battle in Aleppo. So China would best kill them in Syria than deal with them in Xinjiang.
There is four plus months left before a new President in the US. If it isn’t Trump, Russia has to have accomplished its goals in Syria. Clinton and her neocon lunatics will try desperately to take out Assad. It won’t matter the stage of the ISIS war.
@Larchmonter445
On RT news – Chinese are now joining to support the Syrian Government and providing military assistance. Nothing on the websites as of yet. All annonced just now on live news…..all changing very rapidly.
https://www.rt.com/news/line/
“11:23 GMT
China says seeks closer military ties with Syria
China wants to have closer military ties with Syria, state media on Tuesday cited a senior Chinese officer as saying during a rare visit to the war-torn Middle Eastern country. Guan Youfei, director of the Office for International Military Cooperation of China’s Central Military Commission, met Syrian Defense Minister Fahad Jassim al-Freij in Damascus, China’s Xinhua state news agency said. Guan said China had consistently played a positive role in pushing for a political resolution in Syria. “China’s military is willing to keep strengthening exchanges and cooperation with Syria’s military.” Guan also met a Russian general in Damascus, the news agency said, without giving details. ”
Update:
https://www.rt.com/news/356161-china-syria-military-training/
Also an article in the South China Morning Post
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2004676/chinese-military-provide-aid-and-training-assistance
The Chinese military will provide aid and training assistance to the Syrian government, as a Chinese military envoy agreed with Syrian defence minister in Damascus on Sunday.
The latest move is another step taken by Beijing to strengthen engagement in the Middle East. Beijing appointed Xie Xiaoyan, its former ambassador to Iran, as its special envoy to Syria in March.
And the Chinese would now have a base of operations for such a port-expansion project very close by. The Chinese just took over the operation of Greece’s largest port.
Interesting viewpoint, Saker.
Is the Syria base a big deal or a small deal? Mercouris shares my own exultation: Russia just tipped the balance of power in the Mediterranean
For the west, suddenly the “American lake” of the Mediterranean just became shared with Russia. And I hadn’t even quite realized that the Kuznetsov was going to guard the eastern end of that lake. I think it’s important to look at the shock of this for the west, as I and Mercouris do.
But you’re Russian. And now I’ve looked at your link to the Abkhazia base. Some real power there. And it’s warm, and it’s Russia. So I guess bases are relative. And maybe Syria is distant from Russia. Your perspective is sobering, and valuable. And thank you, by the way!
But the fact is that Russia is already the ultimate guarantor of stability in the Middle East. And its eastern Mediterranean presence is something that greatly reassures the people, and something that Russia will grow into – ultimately a culture of Syria veterans will grow up in the Russian mind.
And perhaps you should review your former position on whether Russia would defend this base with nukes. Perhaps no base is worth global destruction, but if any is at all, then this one is also. Russia has acted to fortify its position in Syria from the first day, and this activity will now increase.
In Khmeimim, Russia is here to stay. Putin wasn’t sure once. He’s decided, or at least bowed to what must now seem inevitable to Russia’s planners. This will become Russia. It will be a real base. And it will push up against the US. And slowly move it back. Russia is replacing the US in the ME, as your frequent guest author, Ghassan Kadi has long asserted.
I suggest this is a nuance worth taking into account as we move forward.
May you be well :)
I concur. Putin has taken the measure of NATO. He has exploited Erdogan’s vulnerability. He has passively received recognition from all ME regional leaders, including their military and Intelligence chiefs, that Moscow is the new power filling the Obama-US vacuum. For one year, a procession of state leaders, generals and spy chiefs have gone to Moscow to arrange their pecking order. Israel’s Bibi Netanyahu has been there three times. That should be proof that Moscow is in charge. Saudi, Jordan, Egypt and now Turkey have knelt before the new regional decider.
Russia is new to foreign bases outside its contiguous border neighbors. It has bases in Central Asian neighbors. The two geopolitical base locations are in the hottest geopolitical spots. Syria and Cam Rahn Bay, Vietnam, on the edge of the South China Sea. This Vietnam base will be airbase and naval/submarine base for Russia.
Both geopolitical bases confront the Hegemon with the reality of Russia. It stands with its allies and friends. And it alters everything. These are not equivalent projections of power per se. The US is still the most powerful because of dominance of its naval power. But the Russian presence now leaves the US very limited in options. It can not bully in the regions any longer. It can start a war of enormous cost to US forces. Carriers will sink. Thousands of US sailors will die. Or the Hegemon can dial back and deal with conflict of interests diplomatically. Accommodation between military forces can be made. Russia’s presence as permanent player changes everything.
We see talks among many levels of diplomacy, military and executive officials now because Russia stepped into conflict zones. One is a hot military conflict. The other a very tense hegemony or bust South China Sea standoff. China will never back down. President Xi would lose face totally. The US Navy will not relent. That zone of naval passage has been where US Naval history was written. Gunboat diplomacy by the US has been a feature of the region for 150 years. That is significant, though the Chinese laugh because they dominated those waters and all of Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean 600 years ago. Zheng He and his navy ruled all the way to East Africa in the early 1400’s.
Into this comes Russia, Putin, and everything changes, as it has in Syria.
Russia is not throwing its weight around. It is adding its weight as ballast to stabilize regions. Its presence moves most of the issues from unipolar hegemony to multi-polar diplomacy.
Military power expresses hope as certainly as it can deliver death. It can calm as well as generate chaos.
In Syria, by necessity, it is being used surgically to destroy terrorists. In South China Sea, it changes the dynamics.
The US now understands that the stones on the GO board are being played by Putin. Strategy is everything. The US has been losing stones and geography. The goban has replaced the chessboard. The US didn’t even know the game had changed until recently. It is way behind.
Russia has brought its military, diplomacy, technology and moral authority and now sinks roots in friendly nations.
The last move the US made was a massive fail. The coup in Turkey. It finished the US/NATO hegemony. In fact, it will be seen over coming years as the beginning of the end of NATO. Putin did that. Russia did that. Basing in Syria did that. Erdogan would not have been the target and Erdogan would not have been save by Russia without that base in Syria.
New ears and eyes are at work in the ME. That is why all the leaders go to Moscow. They understand who can protect them, not just from terror but from the Hegemon.
Nicely written Larchmonter.
The thing that the rest of the world recognises and values, even fears, is someone like Putin who, when he says something, he does it, i.e. he’s reliable and can be trusted to do what he says, and won’t stab you in the back (he’d do that in the front, but only after first warning you).
Whereas with the USG, they are lying, murderous, robbing back stabbers who can’t be trusted, except to eventually push you off the cliff (like ISIS).
Hello saker,
Question
are there economic means that Russia can use that would further detail the Kiev government?
Why not close the border and introduce visas?
Why do they continue to trade? The money just gets stolen by the junta anyway?
Ukraine have shown they are prepared to kill those in Donbas and Crimea
Why do the Russians not do all they can to squeeze them economically?
I would say because Putin looks at the Ukrainians as wayward relatives – some of them – and doesn’t want to punish them, certainly not the whole lot. He would much rather prefer this to be a bad episode for it to return to more or less normal relations, eventually.
For clarification, it would seem that there are two pages going by the name of Al-Masdar (the source).
One is the Israeli project mentioned in this article, led by chief editor Shimrit Meir. This page is called Al-Masdar.net
The other page is a pro-Syrian-Iranian-Russian news website called almasdarnews.com
While their names are very similiar, they differ in terms of ideology and what kind of news they report and how they portray the AngloZionist empire.
Kind regards
Aram
Hello Saker,
Interesting summary and analysis, added to the Lavrov and Shogui postings.
You raise many issues/ concerns about Russian strategy in Ukraine and Syria.
I don’t want to misread you but It almost as if they don’t have clear objectives that you can identify?
I am confused and concerned.
Have Russia by their refusal to engage backed themselves into a situation that they can’t control?
Is this what has happened,
Why this approach was taken are they playing for time.
Ivan creates options. These are the material from which winning strategies arise according to need. And Ivan avoids making the error of bothering his enemy while that enemy is making a mistake.
Is this “playing to time” or “failing to engage”?
When number of options is reduced the anticipation of the exercise of those options becomes easier. When options equals one your enemy knows what you’re about to do.
Then you lose when option equals zero.
Watch and learn
Thank you for article……….any thoughts on Turkey Iraq Syrian Kurdish PYK and PKK situations how they might influence things?????? do these groups become more active as now they could see a weakened or vulnerable Turkey? Anna-news has vids of PKK attacking Turkish troops, what is Rus position on Kurds……….Is USA syrian coalition doomed, falling apart or continuing…”success’ seems to have been attained in Manbij where they were bombing civilians………….do not wish to suggest more work for Saker and researchers but
does anyone know???????????
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2016/08/russian-defense-minister-sergei-shoigu-speaks-ttg.html
The SDF and the new al-Bab Military Council give the US the fig leaf needed to continue supporting the Kurdish drive to unite Rojava. I also believe the Kurds and the Arabs of the SDF are not of the “Assad must go” camp. They may be ambivalent of his continued regime in Damascus, but they desire a united Syria with some hard won federated semi-autonomy. They know they live in a tough neighborhood. The US will have to look elsewhere for their new unicorn army.
Anonymous: ” I also believe the Kurds and the Arabs of the SDF are not of the “Assad must go” camp. They may be ambivalent of his continued regime in Damascus, but they desire a united Syria with some hard won federated semi-autonomy”
Of course they are not part of the “Assad must go” camp, because they have zero interest in a united Syria- federated or otherwise- So whether Assad goes or not isn’t relevant to their agenda.
The US doesn’t have to look anywhere for their ‘new unicorn army’- The kurdish thugs backed by NATO/US/Israel will continue on until they are beaten back or are forced to a compromise
Kurdistan aka Israel 2.0 is the plan-
Anonymous on August 16, 2016 · at 11:15 am UTC
keep forgetting to fill out my name and email!
The comment at 11:15 am UTC is mine, Penny. From the pennyforyourthoughts2 blog!
At the moment it seems the Kurds are using the US, Rather than the US using the Kurds. I had that thought when they headed for Manbij rather than Raqqa as the US had announced. Now they are heading for Al Bab rather than Raqqa.
Another section from the linked article here on Shoigu saying that Russia and US reaching some sort of agreement.
“What is Shoigu talking about here? He has never struck me as one given to idle chit-chat or speculation. My guess is that he is not talking about the city of Aleppo. That would be a stretch. He is referring to the coming battle for al-Bab and the closing of the link between IS and the Turkish border. They are preparing for a “Meeting on the Elbe” moment which will require close air-ground coordination. It is militarily prudent to discuss such things.”
Worth reading the article. Also the Syrian Kurds to not appear to be acting as terrorists in Syria.
in the last few months they have spent some time fighting alongside or in coordination with the Syrian government forces. Only several small clashes between Kurds and government forces near the US base.
Anonymous on August 16, 2016 · at 2:10 pm UTC
“At the moment it seems the Kurds are using the US, Rather than the US using the Kurds. I had that thought when they headed for Manbij rather than Raqqa as the US had announced”
wrt manbij, if it was really the case of the kurds using the US why would the US have supported the kurds with devastating airstrikes killing civilians etc in Manbij?
Why didn’t they just leave them to their own devices?
“Also the Syrian Kurds to not appear to be acting as terrorists in Syria”
So killing and displacing civilians in Manbij and elsewhere is not “acting as terrorists”?
There are ample reports regarding this occurring in Syria, as well as Iraq.
In fact it was reported in Manbij recently, the kurds burned down the land registry office- that will impede the displaced (by US bombs and Kurdish thugs) from returning to their homes- quite convenient for population displacement and ethnic cleansing
The only reason ISIS and al Qaeda continue to control territory is because a reasonable percentage of the population in those areas fully support. As for the destruction of Manbij that is US modus operandi, same as Ramadi.
If the Syrian Kurds were to go along with the US and declare independence, there is a good chance that at some point in the future the US will dump them to kiss and make up with Turkey and I think they are aware of this.
Perhaps they may end up going along with the US and declare an independent state but at the moment it looks as though they are using the US to simply gain more autonomy within Syria once AQ and associates are cleaned up.
JJ: The Kurdish militas are NATO proxies. That’s all they are. They are the equivalent of ISIS/L
One is the left hand- One is the right hand
The PKK has been attacking Turkish troops. Turkish police. Turkish civilians.
The PKK has been displacing the Kurdish population in Turkey-
JJ: I should have also added the Kurdish militias have been attacking the Iranian police/soldiers and politicians- it’s not getting a whole lot of coverage- but I’ve covered it at my blog. This is an expansion on the NATO goal to remake the middle east and increase instability in the region for Russia- with an eye to eventually destabilizing Russia- but were not fully there yet
Iran and Turkey last year made an agreement regarding their mutual shared security interests,
having a common enemy in the NATO backed Kurdish militia thug/terrorist/drug runners/human traffickers etc.,
http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2016/08/syrian-kurds-aka-pkkypg-terrorists.html
The US recently made a multi base deal with the Kurds- in Iraq, including PKK, ensconced in Iraq
http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2016/07/the-puzzle-of-us-multi-base-deal-with.html
One base firmly in PKK territory, the US will use this to support the destalization of Iran
“A stunning surprise is that the US will be allowed to build the fifth military base in Halabja on the border with neighbouring Iran, according to the Fishar News report”
My commentary- Stunning because that’s PKK turf! Stunning because the US will reprise it’s support to the ‘beleagured kurds’ yet again. Surprise the US has been supporting terrorists. Always
http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2016/07/irans-kurds-now-growing-restless.html
http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2016/05/kurds-on-attack-in-iran-as-predicted-so.html
http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2016/04/irans-forgotten-kurds-step-up-struggle.html
http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2015/08/p51-is-distraction-early-seeds-of.html
could a victory in Aleppo before january push the neocons into something really stupid in Donbass or even mroe stupid in Crimea?
Very,very,interesting article on RT about Russian long rang bombers (the big boys) hitting ISIS in Syria ,flying out of “Iran”.The Iranian are letting Russia use a big West Iranian airfield for air striking ISIS. The beginning of expanded Russian-Iranian military cooperation.I figure there are some mad fellows in Washington right now.:
https://www.rt.com/news/356098-russian-bombers-iran-hamadan/
”The Kremlin, however, has evidently decided that a small and steady stream of murdered civilians in the Donbass is still preferable to a full-scale military operation followed by, and this is often overlooked, the occupation of at least some part of the Ukrainian territory. Indeed, once you occupy it – you own it and you are responsible for it.”
How many non-sequiturs can you get into one sentence. The alternative to daily murder of ethnic Russians in the Don Bass by the Ukrobnazis is NOT necessarily a full-scale military operation; a limited operation carried out by the NAF would suffice to silence the Ukies in the demarcation line. One thing is certain if nothing is done then the Ukies/NATO will be further emboldened. Restraint, retreat and appeasement never stopped anyone. Nor would a military response by the NAF result in a Russian occupation. The Georgian operation should serve as a template. Give the Ukies a bloody nose and then withdraw – no occupation. When the Ukies meet with determined resistance, they run – like they did at Ivolaisk and Debaltsevo.
Indeed.
It is beyond me why it was not done yet – short of – the same russian nationals live on both side of the demarcation line, any offensive Will cause…khm…how you say?…collateral damage.
Problem with the Ukraine is, that it is Russia.
In the most literral sense Russia’s situation compares to a trapped creature chewing it’s own appendage off(Ukraine) in order to free itself. And since gangreene already set in, none too soon…
The iranian base confirmed in Sputnik as well (Russian defence ministry):
http://en.ria.ru/military/20160816/1044308860/russia-aristrikes-daesh-amrs-depot-syria.html
progress
MOSCOW, August 15. /TASS/. Reconciliation agreements have been signed during the day with representatives of 13 settlements in the Syrian provinces of Latakia (4), Hama (4), As-Suwayda (4) and Homs(1), the Russian center for reconciliation of the warring parties said in its regular daily news bulletin posted on the Russian defense ministry’s website on Monday.
MORE NEWS ON
CONFLICT IN SYRIA
© Vadim Savitsky/TASS
Russia, US in active talks on situation in Aleppo — Russian defense minister
700,000 people remain in Syria’s Aleppo — Russian defense minister
Germany wants Russia to use influence on Assad
Lavrov insists Syrian opposition break from IS, Al-Nusra terror groups
“The number of settlements joining the reconciliation process has grown to 408,” the center said.
Talks on joining the regime of cessation of hostilities were continued with field commanders of armed opposition groups in the provinces of Hama, Latakia and Damascus. “The number illegal armed groups that declared their commitment to the ceasefire terms remains unchanged – 69,” the center said.
The bulletin said the regime of cessation of hostilities held largely in Syria during the day. Seven violations were fixed, six in Damascus province and one in Latakia province, it said.
Humanitarian situation in the western part of Aleppo is under control of the Syrian government. First aid points and points supplying hot meals continue working in the areas of humanitarian corridors.
The bulletin marked that units of outlawed in Russia Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra terrorist groups were preventing the establishment of the regime of cessation of hostilities in full.
A ceasefire regime brokered by Russia and the United States on February 22 officially came into effect in Syria at midnight Damascus time on February 27. This does not cover terrorist groups such as Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra, both outlawed in Russia, and other groups recognized as terrorist by the United Nations Security Council.
An hour before the ceasefire came into force, the United Nations Security Council adopted a resolution in support cessation of hostilities in Syria. The document was initiated by Russia and the United States and won support from all the 15 members of the United Nations Security Council.
The Russian reconciliation center aims to assist armed groups in Syria in concluding ceasefire agreements, maintain the truce regime, control its observance and organize the delivery of humanitarian cargoes to civilians.
More:
http://tass.ru/en/politics/894486
MOSCOW, August 16. /TASS/. Russia’s long-range bombers Tu-22M3 and frontline bombers Su-34 have destroyed five large armament depots, three command posts and militants’ training camps in Syria used by terrorists for operations in Aleppo, the Russian Defense Ministry reported on Tuesday.
READ ALSO
Russia, US in active talks on situation in Aleppo — Russian defense minister
700,000 people remain in Syria’s Aleppo — Russian defense minister
Germany wants Russia to use influence on Assad
Six Russian Tu-22M3 backfire long-range bombers deliver strikes on IS facilities in Syria
“The air strike has destroyed five large depots with armament, ammunition, fuel and lubricants, militants’ training camps in the areas of the communities of Serakab, Al-Bab, Aleppo and Deir ez-Zor, and also a large number of militants. The arms and ammunition depots, the training camps and the command posts destroyed by the air strike were used to provide supplies for the militants operating in the area of Aleppo,” the defense ministry said.
The bombers dealt the strike from the Hamadan air base in Iran.
“Long-range bombers Tupolev-22M3 and frontline bombers Sukhoi-34 took off from the Hamadan air base in Iran carrying the full bomb load to deal a massive air strike against facilities of the terrorist groups Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra in Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor and Idlib provinces,” the ministry said.
Russia’s Sukhoi-30SM and Sukhoi-35 from the Hmeymim base in Syria provided protection. All planes coped with their tasks and returned to base.
This is the first time Russian planes have used an Iranian airdrome for the operation in Syria. On all previous occasions Russia’s long-range bombers operated from airdromes in Russia, and front-line bombers, from Hmeymim in Syria.
More:
http://tass.ru/en/defense/894527
Saker, ‘though scores of innocents civilians have been killed every day’ – at present, the number of civilians murdered (not killed: when you are deliberately targetting residential areas) is very low per week.
Also, it seems that kiev is running out of arty shells, using a lot more mortars, which means they have to move in closer to fire them. It was reported that an ammo store blew up in Zaitsevo yesterday, and more and more of the ammo stuff is old.
As for Gryzlov, what has he done? I view him to be effectively useless, but then, to be fair, unless they deal directly and only with biden the POS and get results, so is everyone else, including the West, which is a waste of time talking to the European ‘leadership’.
So I think once biden is out of the way, with Trump in, the main danger period would be in the changeover months; and Crimea is potentially more dangerous than the Donbass.
You are the military analyst, Saker, and have generally proven right in your predictions. Are you quite sure that Obomber’s NATO won’t use any strike that Russia may be forced to make against the junta’s territory, be it north of Crimea or near to the Donbass, to unleash an attack against Kaliningrad, thus opening a wider war with Russia? After all, those NATO peaceniks have been stockpiling war materiel throughout the Baltics, Poland and Scandinavia, they’ve added four battallions of personnel in the region, and have played their “war games” on Russia’s borders with those countries for months now. It may be a feint, but it may be the obvious piece of Russian real estate to quickly strike, especially since Obomber’s designs on making the Black Sea into a NATO lake, thus putting the Sevastopol base at risk, have waned because of events in Turkey and a decision by Bulgaria. Of course, the notion that any of the American activity in the Baltic or Black Seas was strictly defensive (against “Russian aggression”) was always pure hogwash. It’s all prelude to a war that the neocons fervently desire.
Hi Saker
The 2018 elections are what the Anglo-Zionists are waiting for. They are hoping to have the Russian 5th column fully in place in the Kremlin. With the Russian Central Bank already under their control it is just a matter of the time – at least that is what they are placing their bets on. The question is where does Russia stand without Putin.
In my view, the main reason to read Saker is to get wind of the Kremlin’s PR line.
Both Donbass and Syria are huge failures for Russia. Naturally, Russia’s response to that is to downplay its responsibility and involvement, with Saker’s help.
Syria is a case in point – in my view the primary case in point. Russia continues to claim that its only interest in Syria is to fight terrorism. But, of course, it knows very well, just as we know, that the terrorism unleashed in Syria is a proxy war, an extension of the same unending war that brought down Serbia, Iraq, Libya, etc. The US destroys any country that bucks its hegemony. Yes Russia can sit back and watch country after country go down, pretending that it has no stake, refusing to even acknowledge the role played by its ‘partners’. Eventually that wildfire will come to Russia. Another country going down currently is Venezuela. Putin acts like it’s all happening far far away. But the world isn’t that big anymore. Russia can continue to act like it doesn’t need to concern itself with all these little countries that the US is taking out one by one (or two by two, or three by three). No one believes it. Not really.
Like the US, Putin leaves behind him a trail of failed states. Weird how he seems to care more for his ‘partners’ than he does for any allies. Is this because he really is the Hegemon’s junior partner? He pretends to stand up for the little guy around the world, but it’s all just shadow boxing.
Again, Syria is a case in point. Throughout the war, Putin has been there to help Assad – but always too little too late. The Syrian government has been fighting an endless supply of terrorists, backed and supported to the hilt by the Hegemon. For the most part, it hasn’t even gotten the help that Donbass has gotten, and Donbass has gotten just enough help to be a disaster area. When Russia finally made a decisive move in Syria, the war quickly changed momentum and the Syrian Government achieved the upper hand. AT that point, the Syrian government could have resolved the war, though some reinforcements on the ground would have been needed. Just at that moment Putin chose to not only destroy Syria’s forward momentum, but to give the Hegemon the time and diplomatic cover it needed to reinforce and rearm. The result is Aleppo.
Aleppo is the most important battle I have seen in my lifetime. It could have been a real rebuke to the Hegemon, but now it looks to be a devastating setback for Syria. The Hegemon will achieve its goals in Syria, apparently. Putin will , I guess, get his piece of the pie. It seems negotiatons are underway. Presumably Assad will go under the bus, Syria’s integrity will be maintained, but not really. Another failed state seems to be borning, with Putin acting as midwife. Maybe the air base is part of Russia’s reward.
So maybe we should believe Putin when he refers to the Hegemon as ‘our partners’, or ‘our partner’.
delusional bumf!
the only partnership involved is the partnership that exists between opponents in a deadly knife fight.
I think youre missing the point. Once the world sees that you can defy the americans and not be annihilated the floodgates will open and the us hold on global power will be broken. This has never been about assad. That is only an excuse fostered by the american press. Once the world sees a little country like syria styming a world power how cooperative do you think larger countries will be?
Once the world realizes the the us cannot force china/russia to comply with their agenda one of two thing will happen. Either the us backs down and begins to accept the interests of others, becoming poorer and facing possible social unrest in the process, or goes to war before china/Russia are fully modernized and ready.
Hello Saker
Interesting article.
There appears to be some confusion in your citation of the almasdar news website which you have as https://www.almasdarnews.com/ and whose primary language is English.
The website referenced by http://www.theisraelproject.org is http://www.al-masdar.net/. Similar domains but entirely different perspectives.
You may wish to check and rectify the reference.
Thanks.
Best Wishes
Petar
Theatre of war? So it’s all just a bit of harmless play-acting, after all?
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2004676/chinese-military-provide-aid-and-training-assistance
The Chinese military will provide aid and training assistance to the Syrian government, as a Chinese military envoy agreed with Syrian defence minister in Damascus on Sunday.
Good points.
“The interesting and multidimensional application of this move, is that Russia (Vladimir Putin) has single-handedly secured the safety of Iran and its people from attack by NATO, Israel, the U.S.–or its rambunctious ISIS-ISIL-Al Nusra (or other Wahabi Salafists). By placing Russian bombers (and other military vehicles and “advisors”) in Iran and launching from Iran attacks against ISIS, Russia essentially establishes a base in Iran and thereby claims that any attack upon Iran is an attack on Russian interests, and simultaneously establishes that the purpose for this base is to conduct joint operations with Iran against the enemies of civilization, history, and the future–and any government, country, or bank funding these ISIS enemies (U.S., Israel, NATO, Saudi Arabia-Gulf States) will find themselves without a future….CHECK.
China and the South China Sea will be the next joint national operation with Russia-Iran-China then securing the loyalty of India, similar to Turkey.
Turkey now seems to be taking the advice we wrote in December 2015…that it become the Switzerland of the Middle East, and not the servant of NATO. Truth is stranger than fiction.”
(Scott Bennett on FB)
either fortruss or sputnik were carrying article that only Pres. Putin was able to stop the immediate sending of 642 cruise missiles into Syria because or USA intentions after the chemical attack which was done by mod opposition ,by getting the chemicals disposed of……….not Assad……….ye gods, Syria was so close to a” kickstarter “campaign by USA………
Syrian Militia, Kurdish Forces Clash in Northeastern Syria
http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160816/1044322670/syrian-militia-kurds-clash.html
“Syrian pro-government militia clashed with regional Kurdish security forces in the mostly Kurds-controlled city of Hasakah in northeastern Syria on Tuesday.
According to the Kurdistan24 broadcaster, the violence broke out after the pro-government militia arbitrary arrested several Kurds earlier in the day.
Kurds are Syria’s largest ethnic minority. The Kurdish population also lives in Turkey, Iran, and Iraq. Syrian Kurds say they want to be part of Syria and do not strive for independence, yet have previously called for more autonomy.
In March, they declared a federal region in northern Syria. The Syrian government responded by saying that the Kurds’ unilateral decision had no legal power.”
While the terrorists and non-existant phony “moderates” are a black and white problem, it’s basiclly one of erradication, the different Kurd factions present a more gray situation in their relation to Syria, and probably reflects more diversity among who is backing them.
The Neocons in the USA won in the Olympics big time because they eliminated the competition. Look to that and know that they will feel empowered and entitled to extend the strategy. The utter nonsense against Trump as a Russian agent continues unabated. They are gearing up, indeed, and have nothing but contempt for the Ukrainians.
What Russia is doing diplomatically and strategically in the MidEast is driving them to mouth frothing rages–not only has Turkey been “lost” or at least neutralized for the moment, but also Iran has been strengthened ( they were giving the Turks info about the higher ranks of the Gulenist movement and the possibility of a second wave of nation wide uprisings being called into manifestation using lower ranking members in all the cities and towns: almost in a one-two punch).
F. Gulen has manufactured a cult group in a top to bottom, need to know type hierarchy and it is quite possible that the top leadership is just telling their beloved Guru what the old man needs to know. People in the US who are hosting these types need to insist ( no, they cannot hide under the cover of religious freedom) in knowing who they are and what they are doing. I am surprised Trump has not been on this. So Erdogan is not as crazy or abusive as he seems with his mass arrests. Time will tell on this one.
I saw an article the other day ( forget the source) about how the US is losing the “proxy” war with Russia in Syria . Meanwhile Israel, the loyal tail that wags the dog, sits on the sidelines letting her “masters” provide more and more sustenance.
Killery and her managers will start a “show-war” if that is what they need to secure the American populace and State power. Look to what is happening in the USA domestically in the coming months for the timing.
now it is official:
http://tass.ru/en/defense/894527
http://tass.ru/en/defense/894578
although far from old phrase TASS is authorized to declare….
it looks there is emerging trend of passing again official information trough TASS reports
Hi the Saker,
Here in Holland the news is conformed via nu.nl. A MSM site that gotten it via reuters
http://www.nu.nl/syrie/4307820/russen-bombarderen-syrische-militanten-vliegveld-iran.html
Regards, Hugo
Thank you Saker for a great article. You might also be interested to know that a high ranking Chinese PLA General has visited Syria and pledged ‘military aid and training’ to Assad, as reported by RT https://www.rt.com/news/356161-china-syria-military-training/
This is huge, and looks like the first outlines of a major Russia-China-Iran-Hezbollah anti-ISIS terrorist alliance, but with major geo-strategic implications in the middle east conflict. I understand too, also according to RT, that Turkey might be joining up. If true, that would be a shocking about turn and blow to the US led UK-France-Saudi-Qatar-‘moderate rebel’ alliance.
Priceless article on who is in charge in Ukraine now. Enjoy this parade of freaks… I wanted to say – government officials
http://observer.com/2016/08/senior-ukrainian-official-facebook-shames-olympic-team/
Tass reports today Kerry phone Lavrov seemed to have confirmed arrangements for cessation of hostilities in Syria…and coordination for dealing with terrorists(I seem to nave heard that before)…following on from mid July meeting…….is this slow pace a sign of caution, or patience with procrastination, wrapping up the details, playing Kerry along to a spot where he is stuck conforming to unsc resolutions……..maybe talking about the negotiations whatever status they are at the moment, or does Lavrov say what rus does is what you are gonna get haha like our new base in Iran plus probably we will not give you a guided tour of Hmeimem either…….one wonders.
http://tass.ru/en/politics/894616
hence
“US forces ensured the safety of Russian bombers en route to Syria from an Iranian airbase as the aircraft traversed areas controlled by the US-led coalition, Operation Inherent Resolve spokesperson Col. Christopher Garver said during a press briefing on Tuesday.
WASHINGTON (Sputnik) — The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed on Tuesday that it had deployed Tu-22M3 bombers and Su-34 strike fighters in Iran and these aircraft have already been used to carried out airstrikes against Daesh in Syria.
“[Russia] activated [the Safety of Flight Memorandum of Understanding] system, as we have in the past, they informed us as they were coming through, and we ensured safety of flight as those bombers passed through the area and toward their target, and then when they passed out again,” Garver told reporters.
A multifunctional fighter-bomber Su-34 of the Russian Aerospace Forces lands at Hemeimeem air base in Syria
© SPUTNIK/ ALEXANDER ASTAFYEV
Russian Air Forces to ‘Minimize Risks’ of Syrian Operation by Using Iran Airbase
Russian airstrikes in Syria initiated from an airbase in Iran have had no impact on operations of the US-led coalition against Daesh in Syria and Iraq, he said.
“They [Russia’s actions] did not impact coalition operations in either Iraq or Syria during that time,” Garver told reporters.
The United States signed the bilateral Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Russia on flight safety during combat missions over Syria in October 2015.
The spokesperson noted that under the MOU, the coalition has received information about the planned Russian flights in Syria from an airbase in Iran ahead of time.”
or else….what if denial…………
ahah thery are trying this instead
MOSCOW, August 17. /TASS/. There are no reasons to suspect Russia of violating a UN Security Council resolution because of the use of an airfield in Iran, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Wednesday.
“There are no reasons whatsoever to suspect Russia of violating Resolution 2231,” the minister said. “In this case, there were no supplies, sale or transfer of warplanes to Iran.”
READ ALSO
Russian planes took off from Iranian airdrome to eliminate 150 militants in Syria
Russia warned US it uses Iranian base for bombing IS in Syria — Pentagon
Senator praises anti-terrorist coalition of Russia, Syria, Iran and Iraq
Russian bombers first time use Iranian air base for strikes in Syria
Russia’s Aerospace Force for the first time used Iran’s Hamadan airdrome to attack terrorists in Syria on August 16. Sukhoi-34 and long-range Tupolev-22M3 bombers participated in the raid. They hit facilities of terrorist groups Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra (both outlawed in Russia) in Syria’s provinces Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor and Idlib.
Mark Toner, a spokesman for the US Department of State, told reporters that Washington is exploring whether Russia’s use of an Iranian air base to hit extremists in Syria is a violation of a UN Security Council resolution. He noted that “it could very well be a violation of UN Security Council resolution 2231, which … prohibits the supply, sale or transfer of combat aircraft to Iran unless approved in advance by the UN Security Council.”
More:
http://tass.ru/en/politics/894693
—————————————————–
The US-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) made an agreement with the Daesh, letting some 200 of its fighters escape from the town of Manbij in exchange for them laying down weapons, US media reported.
MOSCOW (Sputnik) — The militants’ convoy left the town after being guaranteed safe passage by the SDF, which had Daesh-held Manbij encircled since June, a senior US defense official told the USA Today newspaper on Tuesday.
The militants left the city on Friday while being monitored by US drones, the same day when the US Department of Defense announced that the liberation of Manbij was in its final stages.
The liberation of Manbij was announced by the Pentagon on Saturday, with militants alleged to have tried fleeing the city and mixing with civilians.”
————————————————
“The Chinese military will assist the Syrian government, including assistance provides “training personnel”; it was announced after talks in Damascus, the Syrian defense minister Fahd Jassem al-Freij with the head of the Office of International Military Cooperation of the Central Military Commission of the PRC, Rear Admiral Guan Yufeem (Photo 1).
“The parties have agreed to expand the staff training program, and the Chinese military have offered to provide humanitarian support to Syria, “-” Interfax “message to Xinhua, noting that the details are not specified.
Guan Yufey also met with Lt. Gen. Sergei Chvarkovym, head of the Russian Center for reconciliation of the warring parties in Syria.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry in a telephone conversation discussed the situation in Syria, focusing on the situation in Aleppo. “We continue to discuss the situation in Syria, with a focus on the situation in Aleppo, where government forces with the support of Russia conducted a large-scale humanitarian operation. The questions of preparation for the practical implementation of the agreements reached during John Kerry’s visit to Moscow on July 15 on the coordination in the fight against terrorist groups in Syria and to ensure the cessation of hostilities “, – said in a statement the Russian Foreign Ministry. It is noted that the conversation was initiated by the US.
Planes of distant aircraft Tu-22M3 was used for the first sortie in Syria airfield in Iran. Together with the long-range bomber Tu-22M3 with the Iranian Hamadan airport, with a full bomb load soared and Sukhoi Su-34. Russian aircraft attacked the group air strike against targets of terrorist groups “Islamic State” and “Dzhebhat en-Nusra” in the provinces of Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor and Idlib.
“As a result, struck five large warehouses with weapons, ammunition, fuel and lubricants, training camps for militants in the areas of human settlements Serakab, Al-Bab, Aleppo and Deir ez-Zor, 3 militants control point near the town of Jafr and Deir ez-Zor, as well as a significant number of insurgents “, – reported in the Defense Ministry.
The number of settlements that have joined the reconciliation process has increased to 410. The number of armed groups that have declared their commitment to the terms of a cessation of hostilities, remained unchanged – 69. The
cessation of hostilities during the day was observed in most provinces of the Syrian Arab Republic. Recorded 7 violations in the provinces of Damascus (5) and Latakia (2).
The Russian Air Force and videoconferencing Syria opposition militias, have declared a cessation of hostilities and to report to the Russian or American centers reconciliation information about their location, strikes are not applied.
Russia warned the United States on the use of Iranian airfield during application of air strikes on the positions of militants IG in Syria. This was reported by a representative of the international coalition led by the US Colonel Christopher Garver. “Russia has warned the coalition, according to the memorandum of understanding between the United States and the Russian Federation on the safety of Syria, – he said -. Departures no effect on the operation of the coalition in the skies over Syria and Iraq.”
He stressed that Moscow “to activate this system, as well as the US acted earlier. ” “They told us about their operations, and we have ensured the safety of their flight when they flew the bombers to their targets and returned,” – said the general. Garver said that the coalition had enough time to ensure the safety of its operations. “We did not have much, but enough time to ensure the safety of flights coalition – he said -. We have enough time to react to it and make sure that their flights will not affect the operation of the coalition.” He declined to comment on the strikes themselves Russian aviation and advised to seek details of the Russian authorities to
use Russian territory for Iran’s air strikes in Syria causes in the United States regret. This was announced today at a regular press briefing Deputy Head of the press service of the US State Department Mark Toner. The current actions of Russia he described as “unfortunate” events, “but not surprising or unexpected.” US Secretary of State John Kerry in today’s telephone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov “expressed our concern” about the departure Russian bombers from bases in Iran for attacks in Syria, said Toner.
If Moscow will not force Damascus to “do what he should “US will not lose anything, but it” is not the best course of events, “said Special Assistant to the US President on anti-terrorist group” Islamic State “Robert Malley.
” The Russians have said they are not opposed to the political transfer of power, but they want to avoid a situation in which public institutions are destroyed, the country will collapse and the jihadists will come to power. They also advocate the observance of the cessation of hostilities, but they are opposed to this use the “Al-Nusra.” We agree on both these points, “- said Malley, who is also the coordinator of the White House for the Middle East, North Africa and the Persian Gulf.
” Let’s face it: If Russia one thinks and says another, or if it can not make regime to do what it should, in that case we have nothing to lose. Support for the opposition will continue, and the regime will not be able to succeed. This is not the best development for us and for the Syrian people, as the war does not stop. But this is not the best option for Russia, which will be drawn into the widening conflict, during which the supply of arms and assistance to the opposition will not stop, and there will be chances for its early completion. The longer the war, the more Russia will invest in it and get out of this situation will be more difficult. Again, we ourselves have gone through this, “- he concluded. He noted that the US, together with Russia would like to achieve, “the termination of Syrian air strikes on civilian and opposition”, strengthening the fight against the IG and “Dzhebhat en-Nusra”, as well as the political process, reports TASS with reference to Foreign Policy.
The situation in Syria Aleppo critical, urgent need to return to a political settlement in the country, the statement said the UN independent Commission of Inquiry into Syria. The document emphasizes that “the Commission is seriously concerned for the safety of civilians, including, reportedly, 100 thousand. Children”, which is currently located in the eastern part of Aleppo, where in recent days there is an intensification of the fighting.
According to the commission, these attacks allegedly “are a prelude to the siege”, aimed at capturing the power of the city using the strategy of “surrender or starve.” “The situation for civilians in Aleppo has become critical and require immediate attention and response to it”, – stated in the text of the statement.
“In war there are rules. The Commission calls on the warring parties to act in accordance with international law. The Commission stresses, however, that the shelling of Aleppo, even in accordance with the laws of war, only aggravate the situation for the civilian population. While attacks continue across Syria, the Commission calls upon States that have the effect, in particular those that support the sides of the conflict to put pressure on them to return to political negotiations. Up to this point our eyes Syrian men, women and children will continue to pay the highest price, “- said in a statement the Independent Commission of Inquiry into Syria.
Jordan’s King Abdullah II urged the international community to share responsibility for Syrian refugees, who are in the territory of the Kingdom. He warned that problems caused by their presence “grow and worsen.”
According to him, international assistance covered only 35 per cent of the costs that go to the contents of refugees from Syria. The rest is more than a quarter of the country’s budget. It is not possible to implement Jordan’s economic development plans and increase the debt. This is an intolerable burden on the state, so “the international community should fulfill its duty, given the global nature of the crisis in Syria,” said the monarch. In Jordan there are about 600 thousand Syrians, according to TASS.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Seyran Ohanyan discussed the humanitarian operation in Syria. Ohanyan expressed support and solidarity with the humanitarian efforts of the Russian Federation to assist the Syrian people.”
http://www.anna-news.info/node/62761
google translate
more regional details there on that link
———————————————————————————-
follow on
MOSCOW, August 17. /TASS/. The Russian Defense Ministry has advised US Department of State officials to check their knowledge of international law following the latest statements regarding the use of an airdrome in Iran by Russian warplanes, Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov has told the media.
On Tuesday and Wednesday Russian planes took off from Iran’s Hamadan airdrome to hit facilities of the terrorist organizations Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra (outlawed in Russia) in Syria. The US Department of State said shortly afterwards that it was looking into whether Russia’s actions were in compliance with the UN Security Council’s Resolution 2231.
“It is against our rules to give advice to the US Department of State. But one finds it really hard to refrain from a recommendation to look into whether Department of State officials follow any logic and know fundamental international legal documents well enough. Such testing should begin with the knowledge of the UN Security Council’s Resolution 2331, which requires getting UN Security Council’s consent to the sale, handover and use of combat planes inside Iran,” Konashenkov said.
READ ALSO
Russia warned US it uses Iranian base for bombing IS in Syria — Pentagon
Russian planes took off from Iranian airdrome to eliminate 150 militants in Syria
Russian bombers first time use Iranian air base for strikes in Syria
Iran lets Russia use its infrastructure to fight terrorists in Syria
Use of Iranian airbase for strikes against terrorists put Russian pilots to test — expert
Also, he said the Russian Defense Ministry would like US Department of State officials to remember that Syria was a sovereign country and to stop to think if any provision of the UN Charter, any UN Security Council resolution or bilateral treaty between Syria and the United States allowed US planes and combat drones to bomb its territory from Turkey’s Incirlik base or any other foreign military base.”
“We are certain that after he passes such a test, Mr. Michael Toner (US Department of State deputy spokesman) will no longer feel regret about the elimination of Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra terrorists in Syria,” Konashenkov said.
More:
http://tass.ru/en/politics/894715
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MOSCOW, August 17. /TASS/. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has pointed out that the US cannot separate opposition from terrorists in Syria acknowledges it.
“Regrettably, our partners in fact acknowledged that they cannot do this,” Lavrov said. “But we are not making a tragedy out of this.” “The directions of our work now allow switching to a coordinated and a more efficient cooperation in the fight against terrorists,” he added.
READ ALSO
Lavrov says there’s no reason to suspect Russia of violating UN SC resolution on Iran
Russia warned US it uses Iranian base for bombing IS in Syria — Pentagon
Russia, US in active talks on situation in Aleppo — Russian defense minister
Russian bombers first time use Iranian air base for strikes in Syria
According to the diplomat, Russian and US special services, military are discussing certain mechanisms of settlement in Syria. In particular, Moscow is discussing steps to ensure control over Castello Road from the Turkish border to Syria’s Aleppo.
“We are discussing the opportunities of ensuring control over the so-called Castello Road to the Aleppo area from the Syrian-Turkish border with both the US and UN representatives,” he said on Wednesday .
“We are considering ways to strengthen the humanitarian initiative in Aleppo with the United States and UN colleagues,” Lavrov said. “As you know, there is a network of humanitarian corridors. One of the corridors is meant for militants who have realized the fruitfulness of their actions.”
“By the way, they can leave with weapons. And these proposals remain in force and these corridors are open,” he added.
Opportunities for creating more routes to deliver aid to eastern and western Aleppo are also being discussed.
“We are also discussing with the US and UN the possibility of extra routes of humanitarian aid delivery to eastern and western Aleppo, which is under the control of militants,” the minister said.
“The main task is to organize coordination in settling the Syrian crisis,” Lavrov said.
“This is being discussed among the militaries, special services and foreign policy bodies. We’re discussing in all these formats – at the level of the Foreign Ministry, the military and the intelligence services – specific mechanisms of implementing the accords reached during a visit by the US Secretary of State to Moscow on July 15,” the Russian foreign minister said.
More:
http://tass.ru/en/politics/894692
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LONDON, August 17. /TASS/. The West needs to cooperate with Russia to resolve the crisis in Syria and defeat radicalism in the Middle East, Daniel Kawczynski, a member of the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, has told TASS.
READ ALSO
Lavrov: US cannot in fact break Syrian opposition from terrorists
Russia warned US it uses Iranian base for bombing IS in Syria — Pentagon
Lavrov, Kerry discuss actions to ensure ceasefire in Syria
Russian diplomat calls for practical steps to isolate IS from moderate opposition in Syria
Syrian talks should not depend on preliminary conditions — Russian envoy
“The situation in Syria continues to be extremely difficult and there have been numerous criticisms of Russian policy in that country, but Western attempts at resolving this conundrum have equally failed,” he said. “We need to get back to ensuring that decisions like Syria are ultimately debated effectively within the United Nations and in particular the UN Security Council with us trying to engage with the Russians at an attempt to bring peace back to that country.”
“Can we really expect to defeat radicalism in the Middle East and the ongoing strife in Syria and Libya without the effective understanding and co-operation of our fellow member of the UN Security Council? I have heard of one European senior politician claiming that Russia poses a greater threat to us than ISIS (former name of the Islamic State terrorist group banned in Russia – TASS). It is with regret that sort of misinformation and wrongly placed suspicion which does a great deal of harm in attempts by others to ensure that we start to trust one another more and work to defeat terrorism,” the lawmaker pointed out.
Kawczynski added that “US Secretary of State John Kerry has shown a real willingness and leadership in engaging with his counterpart Mr Lavrov to attempt resolution of this problem.” “I urge our own Foreign Office to take a leaf out of his book and try to emulate that co-operation with the Russians over Syria,” the politician said.
More:
http://tass.ru/en/world/894721
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Germany moving to divorce Turkey? Interior ministry release report after freedom of information request by die linke, revealing Turkey does support terrorists….Hamas, muslim brotherhood ,various Syrian groups…..etc
Good luck to Merkel and co as a gift from Erdogan they will receive 2 millions+ ‘refugees’.Be ready for more false flags and real attacks in Europe.I’m not sure at all that the real people of these countries are going to like that one.
It looks as though Russia is cranking up to break the back of the jihadi’s again, But I think they will pull up again when AQ is largely destroyed as a fighting force. The Syrian army simply has not got enough manpower to occupy hostile territory. The only way to win the war is to prevent the foreign backing of the so called opposition. This is what Russia has been working on for the last 6 months of the ceasefire.
Turkey is now more amenable if not fully onside, Yemen suddenly has an endless supply of of guided anti tank missiles and are knocking out a lot of Saudi tanks and other vehicles which seems to have quietened the wahhabi prince, but the war in Syria cannot be ended until the US cease supporting the islamists, as much of the population has the same ideology.
might be ok cos Iranians in Iraq are sorting out ISIS..
https://www.rt.com/news/356233-iran-shia-iraq-syria/
Iran-backed Shiite fighters in Iraq now number up to 100,000 fighters, the first-known estimate of their size, according to the US military. It was earlier reported that Iran’s Syria-based commander is preparing to retake the Iraqis city of Mosul.
In what appears to be a deepening role played by Iran in the fight against Islamic State (IS, ISIS/formerly ISIL), the forces’ estimates range anywhere from 80,000 up to 100,000, according to spokesman Colonel Chris Garver, who confirmed the figure to Fox after it was first floated by the head of US Central Command, Army General Joe Votel in late July, according to the Tampa Bay Times.
According to Garver, not all Shiite fighters making up the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are Iran-backed – that figure usually stands at about 80,000. The rest of the figure is a mashup of Sunni tribal fighters from Iraqi provinces of Anbar and Nineveh, also rising up against the IS threat.
READ MORE: US military warns victories in Iraq and Syria not end of ISIS
The new estimates coincide with Moscow’s confirmation that it is now launching anti-IS operations in Syria from an Iranian military base for the first time on Tuesday. Tu-22M3 and Su-34 bombers took off from the Hamedan Airbase, striking IS and Al-Nusra Front facilities in the provinces of Aleppo, Deir ez-Zor and Idlib. They were covered by Su-30m and Su-35 fighters, which took off from Russia’s Syria-based Kheimim Airbase.
Aside from the PMF, another Iranian outfit – the Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force – is now forecast to play a massive role over in Iraq’s Mosul, which has been in IS’ grip since 2014.
During a Tuesday press conference, Garver commented on the prospect of Shiite militias participating in the liberation of the Sunni-dominated Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city. This was upon hearing reports from the PMF that Iran’s prominent military commander from the Syrian theater of operations, General Qassem Soleimani, has moved his troops on the outskirts of Mosul to gear up for the operation. This was reported by the Long War Journal after remarks translated from the Fars News Agency.
Read more
A Tupolev Tu-22 M3 strategic bomber of the Russian Aerospace Force © Ministry of defence of the Russian FederationRussian Tu-22M3 ‘Backfire’ long-range bombers strike ISIS from Iran’s Hamadan airfield (VIDEO)
However Garver, according to Fox, also stated: “We are not coordinating with the Iranians in any way, we are not working with them in any way.” He added that “the government of Iraq comes up with the plan, we are supporting [their] plan for the seizure of Mosul.”
Soleimani is said to be planning a coordinated operation with Iraqi government forces and the PMF.
This multi-pronged approach to fighting IS in Syria and Iraq also got a new player in the face of China, as Beijing announced Damascus’s blessing to have the Chinese military provide humanitarian aid to Syria while also training Syrian personnel, Xinhua reported following word from a high-ranking People’s Liberation Army officer.”
“US military warns victories in Iraq and Syria not end of ISIS”
LOL.
Of course the Americans are “warning” (i.e., promising) that victories over ISIS in Iraq and Syria will not be the end of ISIS.
In fact, the United States is trying to do everything in its power to ensure that its beloved moderate ISIS terrorists survive!
@JJ
An analysis here by Elijah J. Magnier giving an overall very clear picture on what the US under Obama is doing in the middle east.
Puts everything into a clear picture from the 2012 DIA report that a salafist/islamic state would emerge, to the humanitarian aid for 40,000 refugees on a mountain, the massive MSM marketing campaign to sell ISIS to the present.
https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2016/08/17/obama-has-the-upper-hand-over-iran-and-russia-in-syria-and-iraq-and-without-major-ground-forces/
Also a very good analysis here on Turkey by a commenter at Asia times.
Erdogan – an erratic madman or or a smart operator ensuring his political survival while taking Turkey out of the US orbit into Eurasia?
Two things that were bugging me about Erdogan. It was Erdogan that initiated the 2 years of peace with the Kurds after 40 years of war, and it was Erdogan than brought about Turkish prosperity by trading with Eurasia.
http://atimes.com/2016/08/iran-taps-into-turkish-russian-reset/#comment-2837433889
On Russia being slow with the Voentorg, Northern Wind and the Ambassador to Kiev, issues, one has to keep in mind Putin’s natural caution. Putin tends to act very cautiously and this can be mistaken for hesitancy or slowness. It maddening at times, but his strategy and policies consistently bear fruit.
On the issue of the permanency of the base at Khmeimim, Russia must have strong guarantees of its security. Putin is way too cautious to Put a base well within NATO’s reach and not provide it with such guarantees. Thats why I don’t believe that Russia would not defend it with nuclear weapons. Without such an ultimate guarantee the base would be too tempting a target for the US. Its well known that the US would like to inflict a major and humiliating defeat on Russia. They tried to do so by taking Crimea and Sevastopol and failed. Without the ultimate guarantee from Russia, the now permanent base at Khmeimim would fit the bill perfectly.
If it ever comes to an open war between Ukraine and Russia, it will be for the same purpose as many previous wars sponsored by the A.-Zionists – to kill as many White Christians as possible and pave the way for the NWO of Multikulturalism and Multiethnicity in Eastern Europe.. out of necessity Poland would be included as they have the most Monocultural society in Europe.. thus a “brotherly war” between Russians-Ukrainians-Poles would ensue.. killing millions of ethic Slavs and making way for hordes of Muslims and Africans to invade Eastern Europe in it’s wake.
Slavs must hold together as we are the last hope our Race has left.
Eliot Higgins @EliotHiggins Aug 4
Just launched – @sentry_syria an emergency broadcast network for Syria to war civilians of incoming attacks.
https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/761188696184000513
Russia Uses Airbase in Iran as a Safeguard Against ‘Satellite Surveillance’
http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160817/1044359571/russia-iran-counterterrorism-spying.html
Hello, Saker readers,
Are there any American military analysts who’d have thoughts on what Moon of Alabama posted here? They haven’t updated since yesterday.
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2016/08/russia-launches-massive-air-campaign-to-stop-us-supported-al-qaeda-attacks-on-aleppo-.html#more
EXCERPT:
***
“The Russians have warned since April that such a large Jihadi offense was imminent, but it held back from any response while in talks with the U.S. administration. But the U.S. willingness to talk was largely a deception in support of the now ongoing attack.
“The Jihadi campaign aims to occupy all of Aleppo city. It was named after a man who, in 1979, mass murdered a group of cadets belonging to a religious minorities. Should the Jidadis manage to win in Aleppo thousands of civilians will likely die. This would not only effect minorities. Aleppo is a Sunni city and the war is, contrary to ‘western’ propaganda, not between religious minorities and the general Sunni population but between radical Sunni sects and their mainstream brethren.
“About two weeks ago the Russian military openly prepared an appropriate response. Their most modern spy plane, a Tu 214R was send to Syria to collect targeting information. This in addition to two Il-20M reconnaissance planes already deployed there. Navy maneuvers along the Syrian coast as well as in the Caspian sea were prepared. Agreement with Iran about support measures were arranged.
“At least seven Russian ships, all capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles, were positioned in the east-Mediterranean and in the Caspian Sea. Yesterday long range Tu-22M3 strategic bombers and Su-34 tactical bombers deployed to Hamedan airbase in Iran. The route from Hamedan to Syria is 60% shorter than from Russia. The planes will thus be able to fly more often and with additional load. Iraq granted overflight rights. This open cooperation, publicly announced with pictures from the Iranian base, sends a loud message to the “international community” of Jihadi supporters. China adds to it by announcing tighter cooperation with the Syrian military.
“Today a large scale bombing campaign against all support, supply and reserve assets of the Jihadis attacking Aleppo was launched. All major communications points, headquarters, depots and assembly areas between Aleppo and the Turkish border west of it will be bombed. Any reconnoitered fixed target will be attacked, probably multiple times, and destroyed. Then moving convoys and other targets of opportunity will come under attack. The campaign will continue for several days.
“Such large scale attacks in the rear of attacking forces have no immediate influence on the front-lines. Expect some renewed Jihdai attacks on Aleppo city proper to divert from the slaughter of their assets in the rear. But after a few days their front-line supplies will run out and no new supplies will be there to arrive. The general attack on Aleppo will then falter.
“All of this will only stall the situation in Syria. The Syrian government currently lacks the capability to retake and secure the large area between Aleppo, Idleb and the Turkish border. Additional changes in the strategic situation will be needed to turn the war into either direction.
“But the then likely failed attack on Aleppo will have chewed up a large amount of assets and personal the U.S. supported Jihadis and their allies are able to deploy. The center of gravity of the war will probably move elsewhere, away from Aleppo proper.
All this of course depends on luck and all the other imponderables of war.”
There could be another reason- behind the obvious- behind the Iranian invitation for the Russian air force to use their base; With an eye on pending Hillary Clinton presidency and her warmongering stance, the Iranians may soon find them self as the next target of convenience for the new neocon president who needs to have her own war; in this context having the Russian air force on the ground in Iran -especially the TU long range bomber whose true specially is sinking NATO ships with the Kh-22 anti ship missile- may give the Americans and Israelis some pause before attacking Iranian air force infrastructure. I would not be surprised to see in the next fee months an increased Russian air force any maybe even naval presence in Iran on the behest of the latter.
I saw in interesting article, I think on SputnikNews, but it didn’t stay up online for very long and I couldn’t go back to find it. I think the online article was ‘updated’ to a completely different one.
The premise of the article was that one of the reasons (and there’s always more than one) that they launched the latest strikes from the airbase in western Iran was that the Russians felt that someone who has satellites and the ability to globally track airplanes was tipping off Al-Qaida (Sham or otherwise) and ISIS as to when the strikes were coming.
Like I said, can’t find the article now, so maybe it got pulled and replaced very quickly.
But, its an interesting thought. The operational tempo of these large heavy bomber strikes on the terrorists is not such that flying from close-by is an advantage. Its not like they are landing the plane, refueling and rearming, and putting them back in the air multiple times a day like the air-crews during the Battle of Britain. The tempo seems to be one strike a day, or even less often.
At first, I thought the reason for the use of the Iran airbase was mainly political and symbolic. But, if someone who has satellites and awacs in the air and who can see the strike coming was indeed tipping off the terrorists that bombs were inbound, then its an interesting idea that the planes were moved closer to give less warning time to the terrorists.
Gee, I wonder which country with real-time satellite surveillance (or AWACS) would pass on information aiding the islamicist terrorist groups in Syria.
Obviously, it would have to be a country with close ties with the terrorists and would have the motivation to support their jihad against Syria.
It would also have to be a country that has been vehemently against the Russian airstrikes against the terrorists.
Who in the world could this terrorist-supporting country be…..
Luxemborg?
Curacao?
Suriname?
Yer Putin’ a smile on my face . Thanks mate !
Article here http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160817/1044359571/russia-iran-counterterrorism-spying.html
“We would rather not point fingers but jihadists and ‘moderate’ rebels who joined them have managed to hide from Russian warplanes suspiciously too often. This could only be done if they have access to satellite surveillance data,” the business daily suggested.
Vzglyad emphasized that radical groups lack equipment, particularly satellites and electronic warfare systems, needed to track long-range bombers as they take off from the Engels Air Force Base located east of the Russian city of Saratov.
Add to that this tweet from CIA asset Bellingcrap Higgins…
Just launched – @sentry_syria an emergency broadcast network for Syria to war civilians of incoming attacks. https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/761188696184000513
US is warning AQ of incoming Rus air force attacks.
Part of the reason of Russians have limited the number of bomber runs in the support of the Syrian Army and their allies is the realization that no matter how much they bomb, they need foot soldiers on the ground to hold the terrain. Otherwise all the bombing in the world would not secure the land.Since Putin does not what to commit Russian soldiers on the ground ( at least not in the numbers to make a difference), it appears that Putin is striving for diplomatic solution and some level of compromise. The desire to keep Syria whole under Assad is one, but the reality on the terrain is totally different and not very encouraging for Assad; I would not count on the Turks to make a positive difference in this conflict. Apparently just the other day they let another 1,000 head choppers cross the border -unhindered -into Idlib province. Never-mind the endless supply of ammunition, food and weapons to the terrorist which stills flow unabated;
It’s being reported today that SAA has launched airstrikes against Kurdish terrorists in Al Hasakah. after they attacked loyalist forces
It’s a first-
http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2016/08/syrian-airstrikes-on-kurd-terrorists.html
Since the ceasefire back in February their have been a number of clashes between the Asayish Kurds and the NDF. on each occasion both the SAA and YPG have stepped in to stop the fighting.
the YPG and SAA are now very close to meeting up north of Kuwares air force base if the YPG advance on al Bab. This would effectively cut off ISIS from the Turkish border.
That these clashes have been occuring spasmodically between Asayish and NDF since YPG and SAA worked in coordination north of Aleppo which was also around the time the US moved special forces into and set up a base in that area off Syria makes me think that severity of this clash is because the US do not want the YPG to join up with SAA at Kuwares.
As the YPG is not showing an interest in fighting the government forces, it seems the US is most likely using the Asayish Kurdish group to try and start a hot war between the Syrian government and the YPG.
Quem…
Advocating Reason in US-World Relations
The website was founded in 2014 as a platform for thoughtful discussion on topics of current interest, including world peace, modern physics, American foreign policy in Europe and Asia, health, and the environment. Due to the urgency of the current crisis in Donbass, US relations with Russia, and the upcoming presidential election, these topics are the primary focus of the Institute at the present time.
Editor’s Note – April 10, 2016
We continue to advocate friendship with Russia and independence for the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. We urge as well the strategic containment of China which—unlike Russia—has not relinquished the sovereign territories it invaded and seized during the twentieth century, namely Tibet and Xinjiang. Until it grants full independence to these nations, China remains an enemy of global freedom.
………………………………
China the enemy of global freedom? And here’s me thinkin it is the US that has military bases all over the world, that spies on its allies, that has been at war for all of its very short history.
Part of the corporate independent media established for serving up disinformation to the unwary?
Thank you for highlighting this individual and their promotion of their institute & site – their comment has gone to the Saker.
Note: Mr Pomeroy – please refrain from promoting your site here at the Saker and also breaking the moderation policy of not only attacking the Saker personally but this sites views. Mod
“Global Freedom” is a Goebellsian euphemism for the Anglo American Empire, which itself is founded upon the theft and continuing occupation of Native Indian, Hawaiian, Mexican, Aboriginal, or Maori lands.
To be an enemy of this “global freedom” is an unintended compliment coming from the Anglo Americans.
In their typically Orwellian fashion, the Americans particularly specialize in balkanizing “enemy nations” under the guise of championing freedom or independence–even as their own country was founded and exists as a European colonizer state.
As such, it is long overdue that the United States of America be strategically contained until it grants full independence to those many nations currently under American occupation inside the self-styled Land of the Free. ;-)
Politico: Hawexit
http://www.hawaiiankingdom.info/?p=2459
What´s the perspective on Mosul? It seems like there is a kind of competition going on and that the russian bombers in Iran could also be used to support the large Shia-army gearing up at Mosul? The Kurds/US on one side and the Iran/Russia/Turkey on the other?
I should ad this interview from Rudaw with Khasraw Goran, a member of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leadership council:
“Rudaw: Most Iraqi officials, especially Shiite militia leaders say that they do not need the participation of any foreign troops in the Mosul battle, and that the can liberate the city by themselves. How accurate is this assessment?
This assessment is inaccurate. No place can be liberated without global coalition air support. Fallujah, Ramadi, Baiji, and Qayyara could not be liberated without support from coalition air force. If such places as Baiji and Qayyara were not possible to retake from the Islamic State (ISIS) without coalition support, how could Mosul, such a big city with 1.7 million people, twice bigger than Erbil, and has been under ISIS for two years where they have brainwashed people, and raised more members, be liberated without coalition support?”
http://rudaw.net/english/interview/11082016
I am suprised the Saker is uninformed about al-masldar news. It partners with South Front, and has direct correspondets in the SYrian Military and gov. On of the most reliable source of info on the syrian theather.
Saker,
if I may, I would like to ask you some questions which you might be able to address. In this recent article
http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/siv-oneall/68590/we-need-to-distance-ourselves-from-nato-if-we-want-to-avoid-war
the authors make the uncorroborated claim that:
***
Russia now faces three choices, in terms of dealing with NATO:
1. Giving up, and accepting the role of an American vassal
2. Waiting for NATO to strike first and thus be neutralized
3. Strike first with tactical nuclear weapons against European missile bases which constitute a direct threat and expect the U.S. not to retaliate, risking a counter-attack on its own territory. (Donald Trump has already implied that the United States will not unconditionally retaliate militarily to protect its NATO allies.)
President Putin has indicated that it is the third military scenario that Russia is now considering. The only question is when. The loser, in whichever case, will be Europe.
***
Are you aware of evidence that Russia is considering this first strike policy? If so, do you think this is serious or is it a bluff to scare NATO into removing its bases on the Russian border?
In this interview
scotthorton.org/interviews/2016/08/10/81016-alastair-crooke/
former diplomat Alistair Crooke states that some persons in the Russian government believe that the U.S./NATO intends to attack Russia. What part of the Russian government believes this? How do you think this belief will change Russian behavior? Mr. Crooke also states that the Russians do not think they are currently ready for a war with NATO. If in the future Russia does feel ready, do you think war becomes more or less likely? I admit some of these questions are not easy to answer.
Thanks for your blog.
Everyone always fights the last war not the war at hand.
The American conventional military edge on Russia is irrelevant and useless. Yes it is good to have some conventional military power to prevent any type of foreign backed color revolution etc. and to be able to last more than week or 2 before going nuclear as a kind of pause mechanism. Beyond that conventional forces today are useless and a big waste of money, unless you want to bombard and occupy a defenseless third world country. Just as the Soviet advantage in conventional forces during the cold war meant nothing. It just made them good targets for tactical or bigger nukes. The same is true of the conventional USSA military advantage over Russia today, it is totally useless. Russia and the USSA can project their full nuclear military power anywhere on the planet in 30 minutes and it is relevant how far any such country is from the USSA or Russia.
Such stupid idiotic and dangerous talk that Russia can’t protect its friends it has treaties with is very dangerous and only encourages the mad men that rule America today. Russia needs to make it very clear to the billionaire criminal oligarchs, who rule the USSA today, that if they don’t agree to get out of Syria and Ukraine etc. areas of vital Russian national interest ASAP, they the billionaires specifically will all be destroyed along with their families etc, along with every American military base on the planet in 30 minutes. Russia needs to demonstrate total nuclear commitment in this respect. This is what kept the cold war from getting hot. This is what the USA did in Cuba.
To do anything less is to make certain there will be a global nuclear war within 5 years or less.