The Russian leader has re-enacted the famous American goodwill tour of his predecessor a half century ago, but faces the same Cold War scheming. Will his attempts to befriend Europe have more success, wonders Eric Walberg
The past two years have witnessed a much more pliable Russia, retreating from the fiery rhetoric of Putin concerning NATO, the war in Afghanistan and America ’s targetting of Iran. Russian President Dmitri Medvedev has turned Russian foreign policy around, playing to US. He signed the new START treaty, agreed to transit war materiel to Afghanistan, and supports US-sponsored sanctions against Iran. To crown his charm offensive, he made a photo-op visit to the US last month to meet not only his “reset” friend in the White House, but business leaders such as Apple CEO Steve Jobs in Silicon Valley, much like his predecessor Nikita Khrushchev rubbed shoulders
Khrushchev enjoying a hot dog in Iowa
with American farmers a half century ago.
At the same time, Russia is pursuing a less spectacular tack, one which is perhaps more important in the long term, to win over Europe. This process began under ex-president Vladimir Putin and is now gathering momentum. Integration into Europe is the name of the game. The proposed new European security treaty unveiled last year was a serious offer. The new EU-Russia Political and Security Committee, chaired jointly by EU High Representative Catherine Ashton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, announced that Trans-Dniestr may soon see the withdrawal of Russian troops, there since 1991, to be replaced by a joint European-Russian peacekeeping contingent. The European Parliament last month approved a resolution for visa-free travel with Russia. As the US flounders in Afghanistan, the accommodation with Europe becomes a reality.
So it is important to see the current Russian wooing of America as part of a two-track policy: to get Europe to continue to improve relations, it is necessary to keep the prickly Americans onside. Top on the agenda is ratification of START, now being debated in both US and Russian legislatures. Both Medvedev and United States Barack Obama have staked their careers on getting the treaty ratified. Medvedev’s recent trip was intended to show his unthreatening boyish demeanour, to lavish praise on US high tech, and disarm Cold Warriors in the Senate who threaten to derail the treaty. His allies even include Henry Kissinger who praised the treaty. Medvedev warned if it is not ratified simultaneously, the two countries would revert to some kind of Soviet past, when Russia was “cheated” by US non-ratification.
Russia’s accession to Washington’s demand for new UN sanctions against Iran could be dismissed as a meaningless gesture if it wasn’t for the subsequent cancellation of the S-300 missile contract. Russia signed the contract in 2005, when its relations with the US were at an all-time low after US-supported colour revolutions in Kyrgyzstan, Georgia and Ukraine. Russia finished assembling the missile systems in 2009 but has now admitted openly that it was cancelling the agreement due to pressure from Washington. The cancellation of the contract was a coup for Washington, and a blow to those who have come to expect Russia to take an independent role in world crises. It is also an expensive move, costing Russia up to $400m in a forfeit penalty, in addition to the $800m value of the sale, and could come back to haunt Medvedev.
It came as a surprise to many. As late as April, Mikhail Dmitriev, the head of the Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, said that Russia was planning to deliver the missiles. Even after the 9 June UN Security Council vote approving the new sanctions, Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said “Russia is in no way bound by the UN Security Council resolution in relation to supplies of the S-300 air-defense systems to Iran, and work on that contract is underway.” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov supported the deal to the end, saying on 11 June the decision to cancel would require a decree from the president.
Commentators in the Russian media have been highly critical. Defence Ministry adviser Ruslan Pukhov said that Iran, which has been buying $500 million worth of arms from Russia annually, could now turn to China for its future weapons and military equipment needs. Iran has already cancelled plans to purchase Russian civilian aircraft. “ Russia is losing the whole Middle East arms market because it wants to kowtow before America,” commentator Alexei Pushkov said. Viktor Ilyukhin, a communist State Duma deputy and former prosecutor, defended the sale, saying, “Over centuries of its co-existence with other nations, Iran has never initiated a war against any of its neighbours.”
So it was crucial that Medvedev’s trip to Silicon Valley show that his pro-American reset would bear fruit. He chummed around with Obama and met business leaders,
Steve Jobs gives Medvedev an iPhone 4
calling for US investment in Russia, much like Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev did a half century ago. Little did he know that the FBI had already informed Obama that it was about to bust a supposed Russian spy ring. What should have been a chance for Obama to rejoice at how thoroughly reset the reset button was, with Russian-American smiles on all fronts, became instead an embarrassing fiasco. Ten alleged Russian agents, mall-loving suburbanites one and all, were charged with “deep cover” intelligence gathering two days after Medvedev completed his tour. That it was intended to scuttle Russian-US rapprochement is shown by the fact that, having tracked the “spy ring” for a decade and touting the operation as the biggest in US history, the FBI couldn’t point to one piece of high security information changing hands.
The operation can only be interpreted as a “deep cover” prank, intended to keep the Russians off-balance, despite their compliance with US demands on all fronts. The whole affair, from photo-ops in Silicon Valley to faux intrigue eerily recalls Khrushchev’s two-week US tour in September 1959 and the spy scandal that came in its wake. The Cold War was very much on. The voluble Khrushchev, eager for peace and the chance to emulate the American Dream, visited farmers, night clubs, chatted with Marilyn Monroe on a Hollywood set, charming and disarming his foes.
But when he called for disarmament the stock market lost $1.7 billion in a flash. Detente was not in the interests of either Wall Street or the Pentagon, so it came as no surprise that — unbeknownst to president Eisenhower — U2 spy flights over Russia resumed a few months later and one Gary Powers was shot in May 1960, cancelling any residual goodwill. Eisenhower had been tricked, and furious, he used his farewell speech to try to warn the American people of “the disastrous rise of misplaced power in the military-industrial complex”. But too late.
History is replaying itself in spades. Medvedev wrestles his doubters in Moscow, sacrifices good relations with Iran, lets the Taliban know Russia is still very much its enemy,
Russian spy Anna Chapman
gives the US its Starwars, much as Khrushchev abandoned China, put Third World revolution on the backburner, and agreed to ban nuclear weapons tests. All in the interests of world peace and improving the lot of the Motherland. Only to be made a laughing stock by a US establishment not willing to give an inch.
When asked in Riga last month about the purpose of stationing 100 US Patriot missiles 80 kms from the Russian border in Poland, NATO Secretary General Anders Rasmussen said, “I would urge Russia to forget old Cold War rhetoric.” What he really meant, of course, was: “Stop asking questions, accept whatever NATO does and unconditionally support the alliance on key issues such as Iran and Afghanistan,” says Alexei Pushkov, director of the Institute of Contemporary International Problems in Moscow. Putin pointed this out and was condemned as a crypto-Cold Warrior.
Now Medvedev is trying to say it more politely. But his softer approach falls on deaf ears. Or is taken as a sign of weakness. Current Russian foreign policy shows it is eminently possible to find accommodation on all issues. There is no need to dismember or otherwise threaten Russia. However, American hawks need it as an enemy, preferably a weak, isolated one, not a strong member of an independent Europe. This is what scares them and they will continue to scheme to prevent it.
It appears that Obama, like his legendary predecessor, genuinely wants to do good — while maintaining US hegemony in the world, of course. But he has been tripped up at every step. Will we soon have a replay of Ike’s farewell speech? And will Medvedev too suffer the sad fate of the hapless Nikita in the Kremlin?
Well, Medvedev has traded 4 spies working for the US detained in Russia for the 10 Russian “spies”, and also will pardon another 16 spies working for foreign countries.
http://en.rian.ru/valdai_foreign_media/20100709/159743783.html
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20100709/159750873.html
I don’t get it. Russia really seems to be going back to the 90’s, when they did everything to have good relations with the US, and even this wasn’t enough. That is really a tragedy.
Hi Carlo,
============
Russia really seems to be going back to the 90’s, when they did everything to have good relations with the US, and even this wasn’t enough. That is really a tragedy.
============
The following is an interesting analysis from a Muslim former-Soviet perspective.
http://www.crescent-online.org/news-a-analysis/1880-july-2010/2829-islamic-irans-options-in-dealing-with-russia.html
I don’t agree with all of it, but it’s well worth reading for a complementary analysis from another perspective that rarely gets heard these days.
Of course, you know my own view already :D
Peace
Well, I don’t agree at all with the claim that Russia wants to integrate with the West. Russia is still in a weakened position, it is trying to reach some kind of agreement with the US and Israel, but I would never put it on the same level as, say, Western Europe. It is quite an independent global player, though surely less than 3 years ago. Anyway, I am sure I’ve stated this before.
However, the conclusion is interesting. Iran never caused troubles to Russia in the Caucasus, never criticized Russia for the anti-terrorist operations in Chechnya and other hotspots, and even showed some support in the South Ossetian conflict. But this may change, and perhaps it is already changing, as Iran seems to be approaching Georgia lately. This is something the Russian elite should realize.
@Carlo and Ishamid: I agree that Iran has to make Russia “pay” for what happened at the UNSC, but it has very little room for maneuver for two basic reasons:
a) Iran needs Russia far more than Russia needs Iran.
b) In case of Iran-Russia tensions, China will back Russia because China also needs Russia far more than it needs Iran.
However, and this is a BIG however, Russia does still need Iran, so the Iranians can – and should – show that they are partners but not beggars and if Russia continues its current pro-US course, there are things which Iran can do to make the Russians realize that Iran should not be taken for granted.
But the article goes way too far. Iran “penetrating” into areas which are vital to Russian interests is plainly dangerous. Russians died to keep Tajikistan safe from the Wahabis, and the Tajiks are quite aware than Iran has no 201 Motor-Rifle Division to offer if the Russians are out (much less so Airborne Divisions).
Lastly, Iran is about to be viciously attacked by the USA and Israel and while this attack will eventually fail and lead to a defeat for the Zionist coalition, Iran will suffer tremendously from this aggression just like Lebanon and Gaza did. So this is no time for Iran to enter into any type of confrontation with Russia.
But politically, Iran can put pressure on Russia and I hope it will do so. I also hope that countries like Venezuela, which must be watching all this with some dismay, will support Iran.
@Carlo and Saker:
You are right that Iran has little leverage with Russia, and some of that article is basically wishful thinking [as mentioned, I don’t agree with all of it]. He does note the “takfiri”/Wahhabi element that has infiltrated and undermined the liberation movements in the Caucasus, and that’s good…
I guess the jury is still out on whether really “Russia wants to integrate with the West.” I still believe that’s very much the case, for reasons we’ve bounced back and forth earlier. Recent events seem to support that as well.
A key insight of the article is that Russia has not developed a comprehensive ideology of its own in the wake of the collapse of international communism. Its moves seem to all be geared towards integration within the capitalist power structures (G8 etc).
Medvedev was just as peeved as the rest of the West at the “audacity” of Turkey and Brazil to upstage Russia as permanent member of the Security Council (“how dare they?!?”).
At minimum, perhaps we can agree with the author that Russia is suffering an identity crisis of sorts, and disagree as to where and how that crisis will sort itself out: true independence or Western integration.
Without a solid, competing ideology and weltanschauung, I don’t see how a truly independent Russia is going to emerge from the post-Soviet identity crisis it is still experiencing, so for the moment I agree with the author that integration into the global capitalist power structures will remain a priority.
Peace
Is it just me or Eric is getting lazy? This article has so many errors. I guess it’s just me.
@Ishamid: Russia has not developed a comprehensive ideology of its own in the wake of the collapse of international communism
Here you hit on an ABSOLUTELY CRUCIAL truth about Russia. You are so right that this topic deserves a full article in itself. I will also say that this the one area in which Iran and Venezuela are ahead of Russia by several orders of magnitude, in particular Iran. Without going into a full discussion, which I really think I might want to do in the near future, I would say that the current mix of capitalist greed, primitive Russian nationalism, pseudo-Orthodoxy, and leftovers of communist collectivism can hardly be the basis for any kind of coherent ideology. Russians are literally orphans of their culture and history and they don’t really know what exactly they are or what they should be about. This is an old crisis which began with the disastrous “reforms” of Peter I (which some call “Great” but which I don’t), it continued under a regime of a totally Westernized Russian nobility, it got much worse under Communist rule (which was really Russophobic) and it continues today with the pseudo-patriotism of most Russian politicians which are all unprincipled politicians.
This might make you smile, but my dream for Russia would be that it would follow the example of Iran, being a democracy, but with strong and clearly defined national and religious markers preventing the democracy from being bought by the plutocrats.
Its really a topic for a PhD thesis, but I just wanted to say here how much I agree with your statement.
@anonymous:This article has so many errors
Please be specific and give us examples. Thanks!
Saker: Please be specific and give us examples. Thanks!
Here goes a quote: “The past two years have witnessed a much more pliable Russia, retreating from the fiery rhetoric of Putin concerning NATO, the war in Afghanistan and America’s targeting of Iran“.
“The war in Afghanistan” – I’m afraid that Eric is confusing Afghanistan with Iraq here. Putin actually invited Bush to get together and go against the Taliban way before the September 11. And then Putin was the first to offer help to make the American operation in Afghanistan as smooth as possible. Remember the Northern Alliance which was one of the major forces that drove the Taliban out off the country. The US ground forces were pretty much limited to the special ops navigating the Air strikes. The Russians provided the US with plenty of intel too. Putin gave ok for Bush to establish bases in the Stans, And the Russians most likely want the US to remain in Afghanistan for as long as possible.
Another quote: “…if it wasn’t for the subsequent cancellation of the S-300 missile contract…”
“….has now admitted openly that it was cancelling the agreement due to pressure from Washington…”
For some reason he keeps saying that. But further he says: “…foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said “Russia is in no way bound by the UN Security Council resolution in relation to supplies of the S-300 air-defence systems to Iran, and work on that contract is underway.” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov supported the deal to the end…”
No quotes on the cancellation though. Even the Iranian Defence Ministry demanded the Russians to come clear and let the Iranian people know if they were gonna honour the contract. Could it be that Eric knows something we don’t but just can’t reveal his source?
Another quote: “He /Medvedev/ signed the new START treaty, agreed to transit war materiel to Afghanistan…”
Eric means here that by signing the new START treaty Russia demonstrated it’s willing to cave in. Unfortunately for Russia she is in no position to continue a war race with the States. She has no resources and no desire. It’s been admitted by many Russian and the Western analysts that when for Obama this treaty is more like a PR move for Russia it gives a good chance to have a little break at list for a time being.
Another quote: “Both Medvedev and United States Barack Obama have staked their careers on getting the treaty ratified”
Well, I don’t know about Obama but one should be pretty ignorant about Russian political kitchen to say that.
Another quote: “So it was crucial that Medvedev’s trip to Silicon Valley show that his pro-American reset would bear fruit. He chummed around with Obama and met business leaders, calling for US investment in Russia, much like Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev did a half century ago”
So Nikita Khrushchev was calling for US investments then huh? Very funny indeed.
Another quotes: “…keep the Russians off-balance, despite their compliance with US demands on all fronts…”
I’m still yet to learn from the article what demands on ALL fronts he is talking about.
“…Medvedev… lets the Taliban know Russia is still very much its enemy…”
What is it, just ignorance? The Russians were pretty straightforward about their feelings towards the Taliban. Sorry Eric didn’t notice that’.
“/Medvedev/….gives the US its Starwars, much as Khrushchev abandoned China…”
Khrushchev abandoned China? What was that? Was it the best Eric could come up with after analysing the China-Soviet relationship back in the 50-60th ? I don’t even know how to comment on that
Saker: “This is an old crisis… and it continues today with the pseudo-patriotism…”
There is one important thing that the Russians have been lacking for a very long time.
Self-respect.
The Russians had grown to think that themselves and their country are worthless. Stupid too. But most importantly just worthless. They wanted to be like all the nice and beautiful people in the West. They wanted to own a pair of jeans… or better two pairs. A car of course. Some nice magazines too. They were really hungry for those shiny magazines. Well sure some meat and sausages wouldn’t hurt them, but they weren’t hungry physically. They were hungry for a new world that they knew was there. Just behind the border. The new world full of nice and beautiful people. Just like in the magazines.
So back in the 90th they were eager to trade their stupid and worthless country including themselves for the new world. And they did.
Lucky for them there were plenty of good people in the West who liked the idea.
It still gonna take a lot of time, education, travel and whatever else for the Russians to begin to learn that their nation isn’t worthless. It’s probably gonna take a hell of a time. The Russians are yet to become a nation. There is still a good chance that the whole thing will collapse again. And Russia still has plenty of friends in the West who would kill for that chance. Putin is trying to gather the nation together and consolidate them. He needs an idea and nationalism is the answer for him for the time being. Nationalism is an idea that never fails to consolidate a nation. Where it’s gonna go nobody knows. Neither does Putin.
As for the liberties… I guess if it wasn’t for the West and it’s fixed idea that good Russia is dead Russia it would be much easier for the Russians to go democratic. They will find their way eventually. Or they won’t.
@anonymous: thanks for all your inputs. Can I ask you for a small favor? You make a lot of good points and I like to “get to know” people who post here so may I ask you to sign your post with any pseudonym or handle you choose? No need to open any account, or sign into Google or OpenID, keep on posting anonymously, but just add some kind of name at the bottom of your posts.
Thanks!
The Saker
PS: I think that I will write a piece about the topic of Russian self-identity, possibly next week. I will be most interested in hearing your reaction to it.
Hi Saker,
I guess you can delete a couple of my comments that just duplicate each other. I got confused by the system and keept submiting them. Sorry for the headache
I used to post under alibi here but being away for a while forgot my password. I’ll be just addiing alibi then if that’s ok.
anonymous: your wish is my command :-)
Seriously, I did not want to remove anything without your agreement.
The truth is, the google comments moderation is buggy. Sometimes even I post stuff which only appears many hours later, God know why…
But that is better than all the spam I was getting I suppose.
Say, pretty please do sign your posts with some kind of pseudonym. this really does make conversations easier.
Cheers!
VS
@Alibi:
Привет дружище!! Welcome back. I was hoping that this was you writing. Yes, please post as often as possible and let us all benefit from your sharp and critical mind!
Just sign ‘alibi’ and I will know that it’s you.
Cheers!
The Saker
Just a quick word to add my thanks and appreciation to VS’s for Alibi’s thought-provoking comments.
[excellent blog!, btw]