[This article was written for the Unz Review]
We now know a little more about which version of the S-300 family the Russians have delivered to the Syrians: the Russians have converted a number of S-300PM and S-300P2 systems to the export version S-300PMU-2 “Favorit” which, by the way, is also the version Russia delivered to the Iranians and to the Chinese. This system uses the 48N6E2 missile and has an official range of 195km. I will skip the rest of the technical details and just say that this is a recent modification with excellent capabilities, so all the rumors about Russia delivering some antiquated version of the S-300 are now proven false (as usual). In fact, this is not the first time that the Russians have delivered an “Israeli-restraining” air defense system: in 1983 the USSR delivered a number of S-200VE “Vega-E” (SA-5b) air defense systems to Syria which significantly limited Israeli operations over and even around (AWACS) Syria.
Combined with the EW systems also delivered by Russia, these air defense systems clearly are having an impact on US and Israeli operations. And while the Americans are admitting that this is a problem for them, the Israelis, as usual, have both complained about this delivery and boasted that they did not care at all. adding that they would continue to bomb Syria whenever they feel the need. The Israelis have even declared that they would be willing to kill Russian crews if their aircraft are shot at. Except, of course, that so far the Israelis have stayed out of the Syrian skies (keep in mind that according to Israeli sources in 2017 the IDF attacked Syria over 200 times, roughly one attack every 2nd day!).
This time around, not only are the Israelis facing a much more competent air defense system, this system is also highly mobile and therefore much harder to locate, which will greatly complicate future attacks. Furthermore, since one S-300PMU2 battalion can track 300 targets (and engage 36 with 72 missiles simultaneously) at a very long range, the Syrians will now improve their early warning capabilities tremendously, which will make it much harder for the Israelis to successfully conduct surprise attacks against Syria.
Sooner or later, however, we can be pretty confident that both the Israelis and the US will have to try to strike Syria again, if only for PR purposes. In fact, this should not be too difficult for them, here is why:
First, and contrary to what is often claimed, there are not enough S-300/S-400’s in Syria to indeed “lock” all of the Syrian airspace. Yes, the Russians did create a de-facto no-fly zone over Syria, but not one which could withstand a large and determined attack. What the combined Russian and Syrian forces have done so far is to deny some specific segments of the airspace above and around Syria to the AngloZionist aggressors. This means that they can protect some specific, high-value targets. However, as soon as the US/Israelis get a feel for what has been deployed and where, and how this entire integrated air defense network works, they will be able to plan strikes which, while not terribly effective, will be presented by the propaganda machine as a major success for the AngloZionists.
Second, air defense operations are always a game of numbers. Even if you assume that each of the air defense missile has a probability of a kill of 1 (meaning that every air defense missile fired will destroy one incoming missile), you still cannot shoot down more missiles than what your own stores allow you to fire. The US/NATO/CENTCOM can, if needed, engage many more missiles in a saturation attack than the Russians have available for defense. This is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future.
Third, the US/NATO/CENTCOM/IDF all have advanced EW capabilities which will allow them to try to disrupt the Russian fire and reconnaissance capabilities, especially if low RCS aircraft (such as the F-22, F-35, B-1B, etc.) are used in the attacks. Low-RCS aircraft (and missiles) don’t have to operate alone and, in reality, they are often engaged with the support of a determined EW effort.
Finally, the Empire also has long-range weapons which could be used to strike Syria (such as the AGM-158 JASSM low-RCS standoff air-launched cruise missile), especially during a combined electronic warfare and standoff antiradiation missile attack.
So, all the AngloZionists really need to do is to be very careful in their choice of paths of approach and choice of targets, use low-RCS aircraft and missiles under the cover of a robust EW engagement and then use a large enough number of missiles to give the appearance that the Empire has defeated the Russian and Syrian air defenses.
Judging by their past attacks against Syria, the US and the Israelis are far more concerned with the need to appear very powerful, effective and quasi-invulnerable than by actually achieving some meaningful military objective. Of course, this need to appear invulnerable also means that the AngloZionists really cannot afford to have one of their aircraft shot down, hence their current reluctance to test out the Syrian air defense capabilities.
Sooner or later, however, the Israelis will have to try to “defeat the S-300” as they would put it.
The problem for the Israelis is that they don’t really have any good options. The problem is not so much a technological one as it is a political one.
Let’s assume that the Israelis conduct a successful strike against a meaningful target (if their attack is symbolic, the Russians and Syrians can just limit their reply to the usual protests and denunciations, but take no real action). What would Russia do? Well, the Russians (Shoigu specifically) have already indicated that, if needed, they would increase the number of S-300 batteries (and required support systems) delivered to Syria. Thus, the main effect of a successful attack on Syria will be to make subsequent attacks even harder to plan and execute. Would that really be a desirable outcome for the Israelis? I don’t think so.
If each successful Israeli strike makes each subsequent strike even harder while increasing the danger for Israeli aircraft, what would be the point of such attacks? Are there any truly high-value targets in Syria whose destruction by the IDF would justify triggering a further degradation of the situation in Syria? Conversely, if you were Syrian (or Iranian), would you not want the Israelis to strike Syria (or even S-300 batteries) hard enough to force the Russians to deliver even more air defense systems (not necessarily S-300s by the way!)?
Just as with the case of Hezbollah in Lebanon (which the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 helped create), and the coming to power of Hassan Nasrallah at the head of Hezbollah (which the murder of Abbas al Moussawi by the Israelis in 1992 propelled to the position of Secretary General of the organization), the Israelis are re-discovering again and again the truism: while simple, brute force violence does appear to be effective in the short term, in the mid to long-term it always fails unless backed by meaningful political measures. The big axiomatic truth which the Israelis still are stubbornly refusing to recognize is that all true security is always collective (something the Russians have been repeating for years now). In the case of Syria, Israel would be much, much better off negotiating some kind of deal with the Russians, the Iranians and the Syrians (even an unofficial one!) than trying to prevail by blowing up targets in Syria.
I would even argue that with the Trump presidency now dramatically increasing the rate of collapse of the AngloZionist Empire the Israelis need to start making plans to involve other actors in their regional policy. The truth is that the US is not in a position anymore to remain a key player in Middle-Eastern politics and that decades of abject submission to the Likudnik agenda have irreparably damaged the US credibility and influence in the Middle-East (and the rest of the world).
I would compare the delivery of S-300PMU-2 “Favorit” batteries to Syria to a chess opening or an irreversible move like castling: it does not, by itself, decide the outcome of the game, but it does create a baseline environment in which both players will need to operate. For the Russians, the next step is quite obvious: to continue to deliver all types of air defense systems to the Syrians (especially more Pantsirs) with the goal of eventually being able to protect the entire Syrian airspace from any attacks by the US or Israel. The main elements of a multi-layered air defense network are already deployed, Syria now only needs larger numbers. I very much hope that Russia will provide them.
The Saker
First reading, a calm, measured analysis of the technical impact of the S-300 systems now operational in Syria (though manned by Russians while Syrians are trained for a few months more).
Also, in this evaluation are considerations laid out as options for attacks on Syria by IDF/US forces and the subsequent Russia reaction to improve the defenses as needed if attacks occur.
In all, a timely piece, that accurately measures the military, geopolitical and psychological impact of Russian measures taken to defend Syria, and Russian, assets from Israeli and US attack.
The Russians already had some S-400 class systems in place at Tartus, so no change to balance of power in theatre until the Russians turnover the S-300 class systems over to full Syrian control.
S-300 has the range to shoot down civilian aircraft over Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, parts of Greece, and possibly even Cyprus. Russia has a vested interest in selling these systems so a mistaken shoot down is wholly unacceptable as an outcome.
What is Russian doctrine on “zero to 100%” training for a system of this complexity?
Given the stakes, it seems highly unlikely that shortcuts would be taken. Best guess would be 9-12 months before Syrians are allowed to take control of the system, though obviously individual Syrian operators would be in place under Russian command earlier.
As such both Russian and Israeli government comments at this time should be perceived as more posture than substance. The actual flashpoint would be some time next year if no peace plan is in place by then.
Let’s not forget that the upgrade of the syrian air-defense system has first of all been decided to protect russian assets in Syria. Not to protect syrian or iranian ones.
well, I think the approach has changed >>>
Russia Sends S-300 to Defend Syrian Soldiers, Not to Punish Israel – Ambassador:
https://sputniknews.com/world/201811091069663153-russia-syria-israel/
The problem Israel and US are facing is after the sucker play of shooting down the IL, both entities were warned in no uncertain terms that more deaths of Russian servicemen or Russian women will not be tolerated. This warning was made crystal clear both publicly and privately and I would bet that the private warnings were a bit stronger than those voiced in public.
With Russian Army technicians integrating Syrian air defense systems with Russian systems, there is no doubt in my mind that all Syrian S300 and Pantsir systems have Russians physically in place with said systems. Attacking any Syrian air defense system risks killing or wounding Russian soldiers, and the question is will Is/US take the risk? My thought is probably yes, they will, and if and when Russian soldiers are killed or wounded, the usual ‘it was an accident’ excuse won’t fly.
In this scenario, what will be Russia’s reaction, or action to prevent such an event? IS/US will, actually they must, test the systems sooner or later, and if this ‘test’ results in injury or death to Russians, it will be basically IS/US calling what they feel is a Russian bluff. Problem is, Russians don’t bluff. They warn once, but they don’t bluff. Since half if not more of IS/US military ‘prowess’ is bluff, of course IS/US will assume Russia is doing the same, bluffing. How wrong they are, and the miscalculation of calling a Russian ‘bluff’ can have incalculable results that could increase exponentially in minutes if not seconds.
As far as supplying more S300 and Pantsir systems, and S400 systems, to the area of altercation, I don’t see that happening in vast numbers. Russia has a very long border with ‘the world’, the longest on this rock, and her borders come first. As stated in the article, IS/US could send swarms of missiles to in essence overwhelm Russian defense systems with shear numbers in local points of interest. Would IS/US do this, either in Syria or another area along Russian borders, is an interesting question that we may have an answer for in the not too distant future. Reality is IS/US are at war with Russia, it’s just the two sides are not officially shooting at each other….yet.
Auslander
Author
Sevastopol, The Third Defense. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B079KRPLS4 Book 1, A Premonition, The Move South. Set against a backdrop of real events and real places, the reader is left to filter fact from fiction.
An Incident On Simonka https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01ERKH3IU March 2014. NATO Is Invited To Leave Sevastopol, One Way Or The Other.
“As stated in the article, IS/US could send swarms of missiles to in essence overwhelm Russian defense systems with shear numbers in local points of interest”.
Surely at some point the Russians would do something to cut off the flow of incoming missiles at source. How long can a world-class military power just stand under a rain of explosions, sticking its chin out and looking tough? True, Rocky Marciano claimed that he won boxing matches by letting the opponent hit him until he got tired, and then knocking him out. But even in that not-very-close sporting analogy, note that Marciano did launch a knockout punch in the end.
Yes and those illegal US/Nato bases in Syria should be on the list,they should have been told to leave by now or they could be a target.
never heard that quote from marciano…but Ali’s rope a dope is well known.
but..you understand the tactic wrong.
NO HEAVYWEIGHT boxer can absorb enough punches till his opponent gets tired then suddenly come up with knockout power.
lol…the idea is laughable.
what is actually happening is the opponent is THROWING enough punches….but certainly not connecting to the head/face maybe the midsection…most certainly the arms protecting defensively….that he becomes tired over the course of rounds….a technique very very few can make work BTW.
Auslander, you wrote:
“As stated in the article, IS/US could send swarms of missiles to in essence overwhelm Russian defense systems with shear numbers in local points of interest. Would IS/US do this, either in Syria or another area along Russian borders, is an interesting question that we may have an answer for in the not too distant future.”
Well, then, Russia will have to target the launch platforms, source of munitions, supply lines, etc.
If a killer is firing a hail of bullets at you, you don’t try to shoot down the bullet. You take down the killer with the gun. Russia will have to man up if attacked and shoot at the killers with the guns shooting bullets. Just my thought.
I have no doubts that if a missile swarm comes our way the retribution will be the stuff of legend, whether we personally survive or not.
Auslander
If even one F-35 is shot down by an S-300, it would be disastrous — not to an attack on Syria, but to the marketing program for F-35s. Customers are not going to invest in these overpriced airplanes if cheap and readily available Russian missiles can knock them down. It seems unlikely that the US would be willing to risk their entire F-35 marketing program just for some temporary political advantage from a successful raid on some target in Syria.
Nazcalito
Yup, they would risk it and if one or even ten of those flying money pits hits the ground at terminal velocity, IS/US will still shove that overpriced piece of flying excrement down their ‘allies’ throats. Let me know when Dries and Migs that cost 5% of the cost of an F35 are helping them go swimming or make little dust devils in the desert.
For Lord’s sake, UK has two 3 billion, read 6 billion, pound ‘aircraft’ carriers that do not have aircraft and will not have aircraft for another three years, if then. UK has mortgaged their soul, what there is left of it, to purchase F35’s for those two white elephants. Suits me. Go for it, Brits.
Auslander
On the flip side, it would be bad for S300 marketing if US or Israel knocked out the launchers with old F15s.
The drone swarm problem evidently is being worked in Russian defense sectors (to state the obvious)
One focus is on EW defense measures-have no idea how far along these programs are but, as in other areas, the Russians are rapidly putting lessons learned in syria to very good use:
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russia-wants-jam-one-americas-most-deadly-weapons-war-35177
There was an American writer for a sporting magazine, Field and Stream if I recall, and he once explained how to grow a rifle and shotgun collection with opposition from the wife. The first one was, “It’s for deer, honey.” The second was a shotgun, “for quail.” The third, which was the crucial number, would be a .22 “for target practice.”
After three long guns had been established in the house, it became easier to grow the collection. With “a bunch of guns” in the house, what difference did one more make? Once the threshold of “a bunch of guns” was achieved, the battle was won.
Syria is now protected with “a bunch of S-300 systems.” These were installed during the sensitive period before
an American election. The election is over and the systems are installed.
Many thanks for your analyses.
You quote the key factors. The USA couldn’t afford to have one single advanced aircraft downed or a large warship sunk.
And they have vulnérable military bases on the syrian ground
It’s pitty cargo and tanker ships can’t be sent overland into Syria. They seem to be more deadly to NATO power than Russian missiles.
Watch this Spanish beer commercial to understand why US and NATO warships have such problems. “We are a warship – we have right of way.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvRYd8U7qGY
Ha Ha! Too Funny!
Very good assessment.
Given the EW capabilities available to the USN/USAF/IDAF, it would take about 3 days and 600-700 cruise missiles to destroy the current Syrian AA/AD defense systems. Add another 300-400 missiles in order to do the same to the Russian systems currently deployed in Syria. 4th generation bombers and F/A aircraft could then follow through.
This would require a huge commitment of forces beyond what the US has deployed in the area until now. It would be necessary to redeploy many naval and air assets from the Pacific to the Middle East. As important as Syria and Iran are to the Zionists, I don’t think that the US would risk Taiwan, just to make its point with Iran or Syria.
The Israelis won’t try to do this themselves. It would risk wholesale retaliation by Hezbollah’s missiles. And Lebanese airspace is within the range of Syrian/Russian defense systems, which would certainly be used to protect them.
Recently, the only airstrikes by US forces have been in the vicinity of Deir-el Sor and parts east of the Euphrates: about as far as you can get from the S-300s etc. and still be in theater. Presuming that the Israelis still have the license to fly over Jordan and Saudi Arabia, the IDAF could “test” the S-300 by bombing targets beyond their range as well.
Yes, Israel and the US can take out Syria. What Israel never talks about is what happens once Russia shoots back. Israel is tiny, even smaller than Syria. A few hits in critical soft spots and it’s game over for “Israel” as a habitation. What then? Where to start the next Zion?
So, it will require an uninterrupted 5-day rain of 900-1100 missiles (180-220 per day)…
That will, indeed, overpass, and maybe even destroy the AA defenses.
However, such an enormous attack won’t be responded only with local AA defenses;
it will take much less than 5 days to have also some long range missiles like kalibr hitting vessels, bases, aircrafts, maybe even satellites.
If such a massive attack would be launched, it would take less than 24h to be halted, not because the missiles would be intercepted (even if a lot of them will), but because it would be an escalation that will prompt an escalated move too; and the costs will be so high to the Empire that they will rush to halt the attack and implore a truce.
The current AA deployment is a deterrent for the current (or, more exactly, for what was current until that deployment) attacks: quite small attacks (only a few planes or missiles involved) on low level targets.
A qualitative change on the targets, or a massive quantitative change, will be a _strategic_ change, and will be answered accordingly.
The key to prevail is not to become “invulnerable” (not only is that impossible, but it often has the opposite effect), but to have a deterrence strong enough; _and_ to plan and implement possible deterrences for the possible escalation paths.
Russia is in a very good and strong position.
China is in a good position, and very actively working to make it very good.
Pavlo:
I agree. The notion of a saturation attack to overcome the AA defenses in Syria, whilst a theoretical possibility, will never happen because (as you say) such an attack would trigger massive escalation before it could be concluded. So completely implausible, in my opinion.
It also needs to be remembered that the supply lines for the US would be massively over-extended for such an attack, whereas Russia could retaliate quickly from its home territory with much heavier force.
The swarms of incoming will be drones. Many levels of UAVs by the hundreds in each swarm.
Mix in some cruise missiles and guided bombs with a second wave.
Then a large swarm of cruise missiles for a third.
And finally, planes and missiles.
Of course, long before that plan plays out, ships will be sunk, bases blasted and the plan will be abandoned because nuclear will be the next option or not.
Overestimating one’s own military prowess is almost as deadly as underestimating your opponent’s will to win and their preparedness to end your entire existence.
The US and Israel and NATO suffer these deadly traits of hubris and stupidity.
Russia has demonstrated its will and preparedness.
Check the Chechen war, Georgia, Crimea, Donbass boilers, and Syria and then look at the track record of the US and its henchmen.
It may be the Syrian Decapitation Plan dreamed up by Pentagon, Tel Aviv and friends, but it will never play out.
Russian radars see everything that rises off the surface of the Earth, unless its from behind a mountain.
In order to be successful, it would take an EMP attack to destroy Russian radars and EW.
Obviously, that’s a global nuclear trigger.
There simply is no real path to the goals of US and Israel to overcome Russia in Syria.
Great analysis. You briefly mentioned the decline of the empire, signs of which we continue to see on a daily basis. The recent sanction waivers for multiple countries, for example, are one of the biggest signs of decline yet. Coincidentally, the list matches up with the list of countries which publicly declared their intent to circumvent or flat out ignore the sanctions. How very “generous” of the US to “grant” waivers to countries who said “F*ck off!” to the sanctions anyway.
I heard alt-media analysts and experts predict the financial crisis we are about to face years ago, it is now slowly but surely creeping into the mainstream, that a financial crisis is happening at all. Up to this point, it’s all been roses and sunshine, if you listen to MSM “experts.” This is one of the biggest and most significant crises in history, which we are about to witness, it will wipe out the dollar hegemony and US hegemony with it.
Another sign of the times, is the growing list of countries trading in their own currencies with other countries, bypassing the dollar. 15 years ago the US was able to “punish” countries which tried to do that, now they simply can’t any more. This, coupled with the financial crisis, will trigger hyperinflation in the US, when all those unwanted dollars start heading home.
Presumably the State Department interprets “F*ck off” as a request for waiver.
As someone once accurately remarked, bullies usually give in quickly when challenged.
The US/Israeli elites will not accept the demise of the dollar hegemony. Look at Trump’s America. Trump is printing dollars like never before and increasing the deficits, while attacking the rest of the world economically and demanding everyone pay more tribute to the US. Trump himself, like many of his countrymen, at this point don’t care about facts or reason, image trumps all. Look like a winner and all is good.
This means that the US/Israel will keep going to war, keep regime changing, keep pushing no matter what. If the economic crash gets too serious to be ignored or papered over, they will start the hot war.
I’m certain that the US is looking to take over, ie “liberate”, Venezuela with it’s gold and oil reserves as a fix to the US’ economic woes. The coup in Brazil, hard to call it an election when you throw the leading opposition in jail before the election, is a continuation of the US/Israeli takeover of Latin America. This sort of thing will continue and get worse until the US/Israeli system is defeated. There will be no ‘soft’ collapse.
My thoughts exactly Christian. Being born and raised in the US as well as being a person of color, I understand quite well what makes the US ruling class tick. They are an utterly psychotic bunch whose supremacist mindset can be counted on to over-ride, if it even exists in them to begin with, what would in normal human beings be a strong impulse to self-preservation. The Empire is clearly crashing and they are confronted with a bereft, alienated and angry population which may revolt if they are suddenly cut-off from the Amazon goodies and find the supermarket shelves bare. In their twisted mind taking the Sampson route might be preferable to a replay of the fates that befell Marie Antoinette and Louis XVI. Moreover, the objective conditions across the globe point to a replay of the earliest 20th century as many of the problems of the era have never been resolved (namely, the conflict between globalized production and the economy that results versus the nation-state system that requires control of markets and resources by each individual player) . Speaking of which, for those who care, note that today (Nov. 09) is the 100 year anniversary of the peak of the German Revolution. I truly lament what could have been had that revolution succeeded.
Ahh Johnnie Lad,
“I truly lament what could have been had that revolution succeeded.” Perhaps if you understood history you would have perceived that which you lamented.
There were revolutions up to about 1923 that mostly failed; but what the Bolsheviks failed to achieve, the 2nd WW did achieve and the ‘Communists’ had controlled over most of that part of Europe, and the other side of the coin, the ‘Capitalists’ under the Marshall plan held the other parts of Europe in thrall.
In the 1990’s with the collapse of the USSR marked the start of a revival of what those people can achieve. What we are witnessing now is the collapse of the ‘Capitalist’ era, as prophesied by the Russians back with the collapse of the USSR.
Will the US and company succeed in destroying the world as we know it? I really doubt it as the two main ingredients for winning a war, wealth as in gold, and the ability to sustain war (manufacturing) have both been lost by the US.
Once you understand that the fake gold bars made of tungsten discovered by China, and to then find out that thousands of those tungsten bars had been made, then you realise that this was done for a purpose and that the US has virtually run out of gold, and are losing the oil monopoly as well and are thus incapable of any protracted warfare.
I used to believe that as well, now, I’m not so sure they will be able to start anything when the S hits the fan. For a war to happen, they would need to remain in control, I’m not so sure they will retain that when the stock market crashes and mass panic engulfs the nation. Israel on it’s own can’t do much of anything.
I’m also not particularly alarmed at the prospect of nuclear war, the top officials are all insane lunatics, but down where the buttons are pushed? I doubt that. There have been multiple instances where false readings and false alarms almost lead to disaster, were it not for a few individuals on both sides who took a closer look and discovered the error, in other words, those people will not simply obey orders to commit mass murder.
Back when the US dropped nukes on Japan, nobody knew what the hell this was, now, everybody knows nukes, everybody knows the devastation and everybody is aware of who has them, it’s not simply a matter of following orders.
All this ridiculous rhetoric of “usable nukes” is just verbal diarrhoea, intended to intimidate the other side to be nice or else. I don’t think a huge war is on the horizon.
PS: Not to mention the fact that the US is incapable of winning any of the wars they are currently fighting. Intentionally prolonging a war for profit is one thing, dragging out a conflict to the point of embarrassment is an entirely different one, and we are far past the threshold of ridiculous for the “almighty” empire.
As usual, an excellent analysis by the Saker. I agree with almost all said. Almost, because I note the continued omission (‘continued’ because the Saker and other analysts seem to never mention this) of a relatively recent Russian declaration should conditions warrant, Russia will go after the launchers themselves. This is an extremely important point not yet addressed by the Saker (sincere apologies if I have missed something).
It is absolutely true that the IS/US coalition have enough firepower to overwhelm the Syrian defenses, but if the AngloZionist launchers are destroyed (even one of the launchers!) that immediately changes the game, both militarily and politically. Russia has clearly warned these people that they will attack the launchers if they feel it necessary. We should not ignore that warning – it was clear and unambiguous. This means that the Russians are prepared to radically expand the conflict if Syrian/Russian assets are seriously threatened. And we should not forget that though Russia has only limited assets within Syria, their long-range precision attack capability from as far away as Southern Russia or Iran presents a real force multiplier into the game.
Will IS/US risk such a confrontation? I hope not.
@Victor,
I agree with your reasoning, but I also have some doubts. And that doubt is based on an amazing lack of public interest, and MSM ‘journalism’ that just states prepared statements.
Did someone read in the MSM that most of the Tomahawks, fired by the US Navy, are lying on the bottom of the Mediterranean? Did someone read in the MSM why US forces are illegally occupying a third of Syrian territory?
For a time I thought that public opinion would tip when obviously too many body bags were returning. Now I’m even doubting that.
Let’s compare it with Afghanistan. US forces are there now for 17 years, officially ‘fighting terrorism’. In a third world nation. The question is not even asked, whether the US military can formulate a defined military target. And more amazing, the US military have 5000 to 10000 casualties per year there. Add to that, the amount of military contractors is about three times the amount of militaries itself, so the actual number will be 2-3 times as high? How do you keep that hidden in a time of internet and smartphones?
‘And nobody seems to notice, and nobody seems to care’, to paraphrase the late George Carlin. And he was right. They come away with it, and people are sleeping. I’m cautious about these subjects, but once I asked a family member why he called the war in Syria a ‘civil war’, when as good as no Syrians are among the ‘rebels’. He looked at me in total amazement and quickly fled into his comfort zone.
Americans will only *begin* to wake up, when their country itself will be hit. Let’s hope it will not come that far, and cooler heads prevail.
Cheers, Rob
To the Afghanistan casualty list you can add the 12 innocents murdered in Thousand Oaks by the PTSD’d Marine who served 7 months in Helmand Province years ago. Then multiply that by ?x as blowback from 17 years of futile combat.
The US brings home their “wars” in the broken minds of their soldiers who often erupt in violence (such as the murder of American Sniper and his buddy) and thousands of domestic violence and violence against law enforcement officers who have to quell the danger of trained and broken minds with weapons.
None of those crimes is attached to the cost of Hegemonic Dominance.
And just yesterday, a report surfaced that the US military will “have to stay for 2 more decades” in Iraq.
Abject delusional thinking.
Of course, when you look, not at body bags and flag-covered caskets, but at $$$ budgeted and $$$$$ ‘disappeared’, you understand the policy. Hegemony and Corruption are Siamese Twins.
The War Against the Civilization in Iraq was commenced for three reasons:
1) Saddam Hussein was giving $25,000 (approx.) to families of suicide bombers. Made Ariel Sharon unhappy.
2) He had tried to have Bush the Elder killed. Supposedly. (Probably cover for MIC desire for more war.)
3) He was going to abandon the dollar in his new oil bourse. Funny how that turned out.
And of course, would have given ‘us’ control of ‘their’ oil.
It was going to be a cakewalk, costing $5b or less.
As it has turned out, if the trillions the war has cost were to have been invested in new nuclear power plant technology such as molten salt thorium reactors, the US would be well on its way to oil freedom and the major exporting nations would have been ruined by now. But we didn’t and they aren’t.
Hmmmmm. Perhaps it was a Russian plot after all.
Dear Jimmy,
Your first two reasons, I believe are erroneous. The third reason, though correct, I believe was only initiated by Saddam when he realised that the US had tired of him.
One of the things I noticed about Ariel Sharon was that every time he ‘needed’ a Suicide Bomber, he got one. And then, once Ariel was removed to make way for Bibi, the suicide bombers in Israel seemed to have ceased.
Then there was the Palestinian terrorist, Abu Nadal, who was residing in Iraq at the time the US plan to invade Iraq in 2003, and once that became certain Saddam had Nadal liquidated. What was really interesting though were the number of Intel agencies who believed that Nadal had always been an Israeli asset.
As others have mentioned, Putin’s 1st priority is securing his country’s borders. I guess we can assume the rate at which Syria receives S300s depends on how quickly the S300s currently in Russian service are replaced by S500s.
All of that being said, wouldn’t it be wise for Syria to secure its southeast where USAF has been invading?
What is Russian capability of production of their air defense systems? How many launchers and missiles of the type used by the S-300 and S-400 are produced each year? What is the capability for expansion?
I am also curious about this. I wonder also how many S-400 units Russia has deployed right now in Russia.
SteveK9 and Liz R D’lipse.
Do you really think Mother will release such information, and do you think I would say something even if I knew said informations? I wouldn’t say a word if there was an S 500 Battery parked in the vacant lot two blocks away from our domicile with two of our dogs on guard duty and little black Ye’katarina snoring away under the radar prime mover.
Auslander
Wikipedia claims roughly 320 S-400 systems in existence in Russia itself as of January 2017, which is likely a significant underestimate of the total number of systems built. Since these were introduced in 2007, we can estimate minimum 32 fully loaded S-400 systems built per year. Of course, it is likely that in the first couple years only a few were produced while training and acceptance testing was ongoing and that production ramped up in later years. As well, it is a safe bet that numbers produced are limited by budget concerns rather than production capacity, which would mean that in a crisis production can be dramatically increased with little difficulty.
Based upon this I would guess that Russian industry is likely capable of turning out a complete S-400 system along with the necessary compliment of missiles (about twelve per launcher) every two or three days, if need be.
I couldn’t find any numbers on the S-300 systems.
Thank you Saker for this report. Concisely written in a manner that even I can comprehend. Appreciated.
I would hope that long before the Syrian ADS was overwhelmed, launchers would come under serious attack.
I believe the bankers, elites/degenerates (I hate that word,’elites’ makes them sound better than us, whereas the opposite is the case) would like a ‘contained’ war, large enough to bury the financial system and start again. Is that even possible ?
Surely if things escalate in Syria, Israel is very vulnerable. Do they not care ?
At some point the Russians would counterattack. I’m under the impression that US bases have no effective means of defense of Russian long range weapons at all.
If the General sitting in CentCom gets fried then what? All that really protects him is the threat of escalation, which in Russia’s case means the End of the World. Certainly the US military knows that nothing in Syria is worth that risk, but the politics in the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia are all going bat shit crazy at the same time.
It’s interesting to note how oblivious the average American is to all this right now.
The best thing for Syria is retaliatory capability. Air defenses are great, but they have the disadvantage of giving the enemy the choice of when and where to attack.
OTOH, air defense combined with surface to surface missiles that are launched immediately after each enemy attack create a serious deterrent. First, the enemy is assured he will suffer losses. Second, the time and place of the retaliation is determined but the Syrians. Third, the time and place of the subsequent Israeli rage attack is determined by the Syrians since they will have to re-attack right away and will want to attack the ground missiles that had just hit them (and they will happen to be under thick air defense.)
I’m not suggesting Russia involve itself in every fight. Only stating what would be a very efficient and cost effective deterrent to future attacks.
“…..Are there any truly high-value targets in Syria whose destruction by the IDF would justify triggering a further degradation of the situation in Syria? ”
I think that depending on the level of desperation or miscalculation emanating from Tel-a-Viv, the Israelis could overreach themselves and opt to go after “high value” targets like Syrian president, Bashar al Assad or say Qods force commander General Qassem Solamanei on one of his visits to Syria.
Perhaps in the vain hope that such an act would invariably drag the US even further into the Syrian swamp where Israeli interests and options have gone from bad to worse to sheer disaster, the longer the conflict drags on.
Please bear in mind that we have seen Israeli political and military leaders gone from gloating about the imminent collapse of the Syrian “regime”, and salivating about securing US recognition of Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, to now having to contend with S-300s on their door steps, in the possesion of the Syrian military, which is now stronger than ever.
So there is no telling what the criminals in Tel-aViv might do to reverse their misfortunes.
They have recently mentioned the possibility of Syria “misusing” the S-300s to target Israeli civillian aircraft, do please dont be surprised if they manage to somehow engineer such a scenario, because this would definately drive a wedge between Damascus and Moscow, and force Russia to reconsider giving such armaments to the Syrians.
Therefore please look out for Israeli false flag operations aimed at doing just this.
“…Conversely, if you were Syrian (or Iranian), would you not want the Israelis to strike Syria (or even S-300 batteries) hard enough to force the Russians to deliver even more air defense systems (not necessarily S-300s by the way!)?”
Both the Syrians and Iranians governments are principled and are seeing their goals acheived without having to resort to any underhand measures, and I suspect that this will continue.
False flags, staged targets and manufactured chemical weapon attacks etc are what you can expect from Tel-a-viv, not Tehran.
Selah
Selah
Saker,
Excellent article. My thought about your “Russians did create a de-facto no-fly zone over Syria, but not one which could withstand a large and determined attack”
My thought is, that Russians have enough unless the “allies” decide to launch an all out attack consisting of hundreds of airplanes, missiles, etc. Russian ever seeing eyes above the skies can see them as they launch, thus allowing Russians to launch counter attack (defense, if you will) using other means.
The Russian capacity for retaliation should be discussed in this context as well. A salvo of cruise missiles from the Caspian would be much smaller (maybe), but Israeli air defenses are hardly mobile. The arrow 2&3 systems have to be deconstructed to move at all, and compared to RF complexes, Israeli systems would be fairly easy to overwhelm. This gives a more ominous meaning to the recent warning of the RF having 30× the number of cruise missiles that they had in 2015.
Although over my noggin’, trying to grasp and make sense of an overall Syria-vs-planet narrative, am noticing in the timing of this analysis another unanswered and still lingering question: what role does the US election cycle play in all of this?
Not to beat the camels back (to mix metaphors), but, it’s amazing how much this conflict shadows some kind of Cold War era gambit (leading to? another Indo-China, or a Perestroika), after all, it has been said repeatedly that “KGB agent” Putin is the biggest threat to the West since . . . et cetera. Rehashing the veritable “eternal conflict” which, in hindsight, just so happened to be the ideal mechanism for divvying-up all of Europe, Asia, Africa . . . well, the whole planet really; not to mention coaxing the homefront into a navel-gazing stupor — and the heads haven’t left the sand yet. America’s CMIC has grown beyond all comprehension, and Russia is no stranger to this game of (I don’t actually know how to define it properly, can anyone?), let’s call it survival, for lack of an all-inclusive term, but, what does Putin see as a “game-changer”, in this “game”? my take is that there is none. This conflict isn’t the whole enchilada, or even a piece of the pie, but just a necessary diversion for the sake of keeping-up-appearances. Except I agree that Russia exhibits a “survival without sacrificing her humanity”, while the West looks to “survive at any cost”! (even, at the expense of all humanity.) the game-changer here can be nothing short of cataclysmic.
Excellent preliminary analysis. Russia’s decision to provide a limited number of S-300 batteries clearly demonstrates that Russia only wanted to send Israel a measured warning…!
Will Israel be foolish enough to challenge that warning? Assuredly! Israel will, at first, be quiet and, when it feels it can get away with it, Israel will strike.
It is at that moment that Russia’s resolve will be expressed, either by sending more S-300 batteries or by doing nothing.
Yes, the primary goals of the delivery of the S-300’s were three: 1) protection of Russian assets in Syria from failures of the S-200 systems operated by the Syrians (i.e., the downing of the Russian surveillance plane used by the Israelis to hide behind), 2) reduction of Israeli air attacks on SAA assets which threaten SAA capability, and 3) to send a signal to Israel that its aggressive policy against Syria is not welcomed.
It was never the intention to defend against a massive air attack by the US and NATO as that would not be feasible without commitment of more Russian assets than would either be feasible or would put Russian personnel at risk.
Israel, however, is not prepared or able to engage in the sort of massive air attack which the US and NATO could mount. Plus a massive enlargement of Israeli attacks would force Russia to both increase Syrian defenses – possibly with S-400 systems and even Russia air assets – and even forcing Russia to retaliate directly against Israeli assets inside Israel. Russia knows this and is simply making the sort of pin-prick and constant Israeli attacks which Israel has launched more difficult for Israel. That appears to be successful.
Once Israel figures out how to attack targets inadequately protected by the mew S-300 systems, it will undoubtedly renew such attacks. But they will be less effective except for PR purposes, as The Saker correctly states. They probably will avoid directly attacking the S-300 systems but simply find ways to evade them. The end result will be Israeli attacks are less effective against either SAA or Iranian targets, as both will maneuver their assets to insure S-300 coverage over time.
Check and mate, advantage Russia, Syria and Iran.
RSH,
Your point #1 is correct. Once the S-200’s are locked into the S-300 network, Russian commanders will be able to suppress launches from those systems unless the local Syrian battery officers intentionally end cooperation with Russian forces by pulling them from the network.
There is no proof that your assertions #2 and #3 are true. In fact, just the opposite, it is widely known that there has been no change IDF missions against Iranian forces in Syria. And, Russian forces continue to coordinate with Israel in relation to IDF activity over Syria.
Check — advantage Israel, Russia, the U.S., and Syria (everyone other than Iran/Hezbollah/Hamas). No mate yet, though.
Chess may not be the best analogy — There are many unequal sides, not two equal ones; The demise of a single King will not end the conflict; etc.
To further clarify, I probably should not have used the word “suppress”. Air battles are typically too fast for an intercept to pass thru a human step. The “protection” for Russian units would be baked into the prioritization of the AD web as a whole.
As a hypothetical — A Syrian S-200 unit 40km East of Tartus would be assigned intercept envelope by the S-300 Central AD of:
— 1st Priority — North towards the Turkish border (say 75km)
— 2nd Priority — East and South (40km)
— 3rd Priority — West towards Tartus (20km)
— Self Defense / Use Reserve — Any direction (10km)
The tasking both “protects” Russian Tartus as it is never in a valid envelope and “strengthens AD as a whole as the web would begin engaging launches from Turkey as soon as they crossed from Turkey into Syrian airspace. If the S-200 first engagement fails the more capable (but much more expensive) S-300 launchers would obey their own intercept envelope priority rules.
“There is no proof that your assertions #2 and #3 are true. In fact, just the opposite, it is widely known that there has been no change IDF missions against Iranian forces in Syria. And, Russian forces continue to coordinate with Israel in relation to IDF activity over Syria.
Check — advantage Israel, Russia, the U.S., and Syria (everyone other than Iran/Hezbollah/Hamas). No mate yet, though.”
Got any proof or is it just hutzpah? USA! USA! Wink! Wink!
Words are not enough! They have to be stopped their tracks, period! They have to feel – that elite – that that’s the end of « staging ». They have to start paying the price.
Methinks the coming offensive to clear Daesh from East of the Euphrates will see the initial challenge by the Outlaw US Empire to the new Syrian air defense assets as they’ve conducted airstrikes consistently against any movement Eastward from Dier-Ezzor or al-Bukamal.
The Zionists have another problem: who gets the short straw and becomes the test pilot against the new Syrian systems–it’s a lot different from bombing defenseless Palestinians when you get the target locked warning screaming inside your helmet before you’ve let loose your payload. Sure, they went to Ukraine to train against the first S-300 versions, but as I understand it, the differences in capabilities is very large and the EW environment far thicker and more effective. Here’s the newest Combat Approved video about the Nebo-M radar complex which is the “Stealth Catcher” and likely deployed in Syria. Given the integrated nature of the air defense network, the S-300s can get targeting data from alternate radar sets thus allowing themselves to remain masked yet capable of firing; so, there’s no easy way to directly attack an S-300. Which Zionist pilot will volunteer to get killed to prove the system’s effectiveness; or as Saker makes clear, is the political cost too high for such a foolhardy act? IMO, the Zionists will let the USAF test it first.
In 1973 the IDF had huge problems with Soviet SAM missiles based in Egypt. The US provided counter-measures after the electronics profiles were captured by “suicidal” IDF pilots and then sent to US for ways and means to knock out the SAMs. That all happened and it led to the fat, homicidal IDF General to sweep around and capture the Egyptian forces.
Never underestimate the enemy. They have heroes also, even suicidal heroes.
Certainly not an underestimation. Rather, it’s 45 years and 2 generations since that far more existential war, and in the interim, far fewer suicidal Zionists exist. When Zionist impunity was defeated not too long ago, its press went bananas. The tenuous political balance within Zionistan worsened as the lost impunity further motivated anti-IDF and anti-Zionistan forces within the Chosen Few portion of the polity. Note Saker didn’t delve into Zionistan’s internal politics as another reason related to the political cost of attacking Syria. And worse than a dead pilot is a captured pilot, the odds of which is vastly increased adding yet another straw to the political camel’s back. And as it fails to beat back the BDS movement, further Outlaw behavior only serves to provide it further momentum.
Cost versus Benefit. As I wrote above, I’d let the Americans go first.
When Israel attacks and destroys S-300, Putin will do nothing.
“Our partners…blah, blah, blah.” He makes me sick.
Unless Shoigu takes charge.
Thales the Milesian
Well then, seems to me you need to come to Russia, obtain citizenship and run for President. Oops, you can’t run, you is still foreigner, but still, it’s a nice thought since you have so much more information at your fingertips than President Putin does.
On the other hand, nothing is stopping you from going to Syria and putting your money where your mouth is, IOW volunteer and join one of the ‘special’ brigades. Pay is good from what I hear.
The Tovarich General Shoigu is an essential part of the troika, not ‘the’ troika.
Auslander
I wouldn’t bank on this. Russia has always kowtowed to the Kosher Nostra in Washington and Tel Aviv in return for worthless promises that are never kept. Russia will always sell out friends and allies, for precisely nothing in return.
Russia supported and facilitated US economic strangulation of Iran on bogus WMD pretexts. It did so in return for an undertaking not to deploy missile systems on its borders. Needless to say, this promise was never kept. Similarly, Russia refused to complete Bushehr, as it had contracted to do. It also refused to deliver S300s Iran had paid for. Iran had to develop its own system instead.
Russia also endorsed and facilitated the FUKUS/ France, UK, US destruction of Libya, the US economic strangulation of Iraq, which caused the deaths of 500,000 Iraqi children under 5 from 1991 – 2003. It is currently doing the same with DPRK.
Russia will probably stab Iran in the back again over current US unilateral sanctions, probably in return for some worthless promises over sanctions against itself, arms control, or something else.
Russia never misses an opportunity to stab its friends in the back and act against its own interests.
My condolences that you have missed out repeatedly on the Big Shootout you’ve been waiting so long for.
There’s always time to start WWIII…
Are you so desperate for it to kick off?
Mark
“Russia also endorsed and facilitated the FUKUS/ France, UK, US destruction of Libya, the US economic strangulation of Iraq, which caused the deaths of 500,000 Iraqi children under 5 from 1991 – 2003. It is currently doing the same with DPRK.”
Would you care to give verifiable documentation on this ‘500,000’ dead children in 12 years? I am curios as to the source for this info, I’ve not seen it before.
Auslander
Please read:
Effects of Iraq Sanctions
http://www.globalissues.org/article/105/effects-of-sanctions
The figure has not been disputed by high level members of the Clinton administration. On the contrary, they have publicly supported the policies that created that holocaust.
Oh please………..
Auslander
Madeline Albright – It was worth…
https://www.instagram.com/p/BouTZJxHOV7/
It’s worth noting the Madeleine Albright never refuted or denied her comments. In hindsight she only regretted not reframing the question posed to her by the journalist so she could deflect and spin properly. This little misstep was a rare glimpse of the truth sneaking past a trained operative.
The Big Picture
https://imgprx.livejournal.net/15132a234ef6bb9134e41415f56bbba264567238/idQmzoHX7GkxOTpdYZk_2NkJA9mNakJXnInujrsHqt_CDwUZI9ScpY2t2MOIZWa_5CwVYASdzhof8qyb3mkvfu0VR0AcI-X4n1UH1RFbbUHhWD5-pqizSSMU9P5eT3ml
Hello tri-static interlinked air defense radar, good bye so-called stealth aircraft.
Great analysis, Saker.
“all true security is always collective”
Whereas the exceptionalist mindset is locked into unilateral action. Self-permissioning is a birthright. There is also within exceptionalism the inference of selective nihilism: Me king, you dead. Collective security can never be more than an interim accommodation.
As Israel persists in tightening the ratchet around itself (which it will), it will produce an ever-expanding threat that clearly overflows its own capabilities. So we see the requisite scale for WW3 emerging against which America will be thrown with all the self-fulfilling prophetic energies 70 million Christian Zionists can assemble.
We’re in a scale-adjustment phase. More scale…
It’s curious how I always keep coming back the Islamic eschatology of Sheik Imram Hosein who suggests that Pax Judaica requires two things 1) a dramatically curtailed world population and 2) a Greater Israel.
#2 will follow easily from the chaos and ashes of #1.
Chabad’s role might be stage direction; to whisper in the ears of Russian and American leaders and subtly coax the conflagration forward.
“Muslims and Orthodox Christians, who both share many eschatological similarities, are assured of victory at the end of history. We are, in fact, on firm foundations when we anticipate a Muslim-Orthodox alliance in the military struggle for the conquest of Constantinople which, according to the prophecy of Prophet Muhammad سلم و عليه الله صل ,will follow immediately after the Malhama or Great War (Christians refer to it as Armageddon) in which 99 out of every 100 combatants will be killed. (Sahīh Bukhārī, Sahīh Muslim.)”
–from ‘Dajjāl, The Qur’ān and Awwal Al-Zamān’, by Sheikh Imran Hosein
Of course in the thermonuclear age, we’re all ‘combatants’.
My prediction is, that as with every other salvo of new hostilities, this will also begin with a false flag operation.
Under the present circumstances, the most effective action would be to make syrian SAM batteries shoot down an airliner, or at the very least make it appear, that a given liner packed with an assortment of international crew and passengers was taken down by either a Russian or supplied by Russia SAM.
Whip up the “international community” using the well established methods and implement punitive measures of the “coalition of the willing”
Basically all you have to do is to hide strike aircraft behind the radar signature of an airliner this time, then let the dogs loose.
I would hate to have to travel by air in the vicinity for the foreseable future.
@ Victor 4:54 –
You are right; I heard him say that. I recall vividly, listening to a speech by Putin (with English subtitles) in which he stated clearly that any military attack on the territory of the Russian Federation will be met with an immediate nuclear response against the territory(s) of the attacker(s). I’m sure that I’m not mistaken about that; as a citizen and a resident of the most likely aggressor, I paid very close attention to that.
If Shoigu and Assad can influence Putin and Lavrov to pack S-300s in Syria, Israel will have to take cover or begin to lose aircraft. An alternative plan would be for Russia and Syria to retaliate by raiding Israel bases from the air.
This hype over the S-300 deployment completely misses the important points. The Russian forces already had the capability to destroy IDF aircraft engaging in attacks on Syria via their own previously deployed S300v, S-400 and and naval assets before this S-300 deployment. What was lacking was not capability, but will.
It still seems unclear just how many S-300 launchers have been deployed to Syria. The original Russian announcement was only 4 launchers (one under strength battery), while others are claiming as many as 24 launchers (three full strength batteries). In either case, these S-300’s are only nominally under Syrian control as they are almost certainly operated by Russian troops answering directly through the Russian chain of command and hence are no different in any practical sense than the S-400’s in Latakia. Shooting down IDF/US planes with these S-300’s will have the exact same effect politically and militarily as the Russian S-400’s doing the job. What has changed that anyone should believe that the Russians have suddenly changed their calculations about the direct use of force against IDF/US aircraft? Answer? Nothing.
It is true that the deployment of enough S-300’s would allow the Syrian/Russians to provide better coverage over larger parts of Syria and would increase the number of weapons required for a “saturation attack” to overwhelm these defenses (this is much less so if the total launchers delivered turns out to only be 4), but how has this S-300 deployment really changed the fundamental situation in Syria? The reality is that it hasn’t. Again, the issue is not about capability, but about will.
People are making much of the IDF’s apparent suspension of of its air campaign against Syria and attributing this to the S-300 deployment. But this is just not supportable by the facts as we know them. As I said, the Russians already had the ability to target attacking IDF aircraft (and to provide targeting info to Syrian AA batteries as well). What has led to the apparent IDF suspension of their air campaign is not the S-300 deployment, but the perception by Israel that they have angered the Russians and that the risk to their pilots and aircraft had increased, but this has ZERO to do with the S-300 deployment.
I do not agree with Saker’s assertion that the IDF will have to attempt to overcome the S-300 deployment for two reasons…first of all, it isn’t the S-300 deployment that is causing the problem…second is that they have no need or desire to endanger their own aircraft in attacks against formidable air defenses when they can simply have the Americans do the job for them, which I suspect they soon will.
The fact remains that the Russians have for two years now been laying down red lines that the IDF/US have repeatedly violated. It is not just a matter of IDF air attacks (which had previously been done with at least the tacit approval of the Russians), but Russian forces themselves have been repeatedly attacked with drones which are being supplied and coordinated by the Anglo-Zionists. So long as these attacks have been largely unsuccessful, the Russians have been content to ignore them. The Russians, despite their public pronouncements, have been content to accept the deaths of Russian servicemen in small if steady numbers. The IL-20 shoot down which killed 15 servicemen in the immediate vicinity of the Russian air base was simply too much to swallow and for domestic concerns, Putin had to do something. So what did he do? He restated the previously unenforced red lines (essentially saying that this time, they really mean it) and made a big show of deploying some S-300 launchers to Syria. That’s it.
So I ask you, how do Russian red lines have any more credibility today than they did before the IL-20 shoot down? The short answer is that the Russian reaction has done nothing but reinforce the notion that they are running their Syria policy on a huge bluff…and that bluff is about to be called. War is coming, soon.
“In either case, these S-300’s are only nominally under Syrian control as they are almost certainly operated by Russian troops answering directly through the Russian chain of command and hence are no different in any practical sense than the S-400’s in Latakia.”
I suspect you miss the main point — strategic ambiguity.
If an Israeli/US asset is shot down with new Russian S-300’s then it is 100% certain that ‘Syrian’ personnel did it!
On a more defensive note, the main reasoning (at least public) for Russia’s response was to ensure no future mistakes and shooting down Russian assets due to discontinuities in missile command and control etc.
There is NO strategic ambiguity with these S-300’s. Everyone knows they are manned by Russian troops and fall directly under the Russian chain of command. In order to have strategic ambiguity, there needs to be a belief, or at least a plausible argument that these S-300’s can target aircraft independent of the Russian chain of command. This simply does not exist today.
Insofar as preventing future friendly fire incidents, again the deployment of the S-300’s changes nothing really, save for these 4 (or perhaps 24?) launchers. The real blue on blue issue almost certainly had more to do with the Russians not fully sharing targeting and tracking info with the Syrian batteries and not sharing their IFF info. This seems to have been done on a selective basis with the Russians simply not providing this data to the Syrians on the IDF strikes that they had tacitly approved.
Providing IFF info for the Syrian batteries was the logical solution to the friendly fire problem, which has nothing to do with S-300’s. Again, this is mostly hype. The real changes on the ground are a result of the political climate (The Russian military and people don’t like their people being killed because of Israeli intransigence), not on any real change in capabilities.
What at are the EW and spoofing capabilities of the bulk of the IDF aircraft, her the F 15 and F 16. Those will show up over Syria and be the first prey of the Syrian air defense.The loss of an Israeli F 35 to an S-300 would be major catastrophy for all parties involved, especially Lockheed. I doubts whether Germany is willing to risk her 6 Tornadoes flying recon. over Syria.
It probably does not get any more obvious than this but here it is: (delusional neocon US envoy to Syria):
US envoy to Syria James Jeffrey said yesterday that Russia should maintain a “permissive approach” towards Israeli airstrikes in Syria.
Speaking with journalists via a conference call, Jeffrey explained that “in the past Russia has been permissive in consultation with the Israelis about Israeli strikes against Iranian targets inside Syria,” adding that: “We certainly hope that that permissive approach will continue”.
Well….considering MoD said there had been 200 plus IAF flights into Syria…most without complying to” agreed” procedures…….this guy is a comedy act.
People will never understand what is happening in Syria if they don’t understand Zionist goals. The Israelis are not interested in peace and stability. Their greater Israel project is only possible under conditions of chaos and instability. It has been a well known Israeli goal going back to prior to the 1948 war that all of the (then) new Arab states must be destabilized and broken down into ethnic principalities which will be easily manipulated and dominated by the Israelis and which will have no power to oppose Israeli expansion.
Given this, attempts to engage the Israelis on terms that would promote peace and stability are pointless. What they seek is outright victory and global domination. The only thing that causes them to back up are real credible military/economic threats to the viability of the Israeli state. Even then, all that is achieved are tactical pauses in the conflict, not peace. The only real solution is the end of the zionist project and the destruction of global Jewish power. Anything less simply will not achieve any kind of long term stability. The more time that goes by, the more destructive this war is going to be. Better that we had finished this in 1945 when it could have been done relatively painlessly.
Where can we get Zionist Goals heads up displays? That would make the job of seeing everything through Zionist Goals and we would never self-deceive.
Some folks have to see Zionists everywhere masterminding everything.
I see them marginalized of late. Their Saudi alliance is in deep doodoo. They can’t fly their powerful air force anywhere they want. Iran has China, the EU and Russia helping them avoid sanctions. And Hezbollah has them suffering nervous colitis.
How goddamn important are they and their goals?
You make them gods and then you make yourself powerless.
They have spent the last six months killing children and nurses. They aren’t much by any standard.
@ Larchmonter445
A “heads up display” is not necessary to see Zionist goals in the Middle East and beyond. All one has to do is read the writings of various key Zionist players going back nearly a century.
Yes some people continue to see Zionists everywhere involved in everything…but then perhaps that is because they are deeply involved in so much, right? Zionist control over, not just the US government, but the entire US political system is near total. The Zionists control over the US government today is greater than the control a rider exercises over his horse…Total? Perhaps not, but is that really the bar for when it is okay for Goyim to notice?
Another consideration, often missing in the analysis of deploying modern (read: current) S-300 systems like the PMU-2 variant, is an opportunity to determine its effectiveness (and shortcomings) in actual combat. Russia, China, Iran (etc) have all rolled the dice on Air Defensive based on these systems without ever witnessing effective countermeasures deployed against them.
The only time an attack can occur within shooting distance of an S-300 system is if a weakness can be found and exploited. Each time shots are successfully fired, you can bet real money that Russian Air Force Intelligence plus the full kit of Scientists, Engineers, and Technicians at Almaz/Antei will be working double overtime to understand what fell short and work really hard to plug any faults. Each iteration of attack/discovery/fix will make the next iteration much harder (and more dangerous) to execute. You can bet there will be real pushback from the military to make sure that political capital gained be worth the possible future loss of future operations against any land being protected by these systems.
In other words: does anyone think its wise to tip off the Empire that a 57 Quadrillion credit DEATHSTAR can be completely destroyed by throwing at it bunches of old X-fighters firing a few cheap proton torpedos down the thermal exhaust port?
“I would even argue that with the Trump presidency now dramatically increasing the rate of collapse of the AngloZionist Empire the Israelis need to start making plans to involve other actors in their regional policy. The truth is that the US is not in a position anymore to remain a key player in Middle-Eastern politics and that decades of abject submission to the Likudnik agenda have irreparably damaged the US credibility and influence in the Middle-East (and the rest of the world).”
Got that right bro!
God bless the Useless Sociopathic Aholes of the AZ Empire who make it easy for Iran, China and Russia to create a multipolar world.
USA! USA! Wink! Wink!
One thing missing from the article and the comments is whether and at one point would Syria/Russia go on offense. This is all about air defense. Basically sitting there like a punching bag, hoping you are strong enough to take the blows. Perhaps Israel’s nuclear arsenal makes them believe a war to destroy them cannot be undertaken.
It has been said that Russia has the strongest military in the world. Two reasons are cited.
1) Having been designed by brilliant scientists and engineers, whose purpose is to produce effective weaponry, the result is that the Russian military equipment works. Contrasts with Hegemon’s reliance on MI(C and its profit motive.
2) The Russian defense system is exactly that, a system to defend the nation (and adjacent territories that have utility. It does not need to launch wars or aggression to obtain more land. Russia has enough land.
An offensive would weaken the nation.
This is all about air defense of ground operations. When Rogue State’s immature ploy to drive a wedge between Russia and Syria, Russia responded by upping Syria’s air defense capability. Right now they’re sitting there like a rattlesnake, coiled and ready to strike.
Israel’s nuclear arsenal is pointless. As Israel becomes more and more a pimple on the ass of history, its vaunted nuclear arsenal will become more and more like a staph infection. That is, something that everyone agrees must be eliminated.
Everything is evolving and right now the delivery of s-300 missiles to Syria means that Iran can take this time to teach and construct a new missiles fabric in syrian soil that permit them to increase his defense possibilities. So Syria won’t depend solely in the aide from Russia but in their own production of iranian missiles.
Very logical. Thank you.
For me, it is clear that the leadership of the Jews are trying to work out where to send their tribe. Palestine is no longer a safe place and all the PR in the world is not going to change that fact.
Personally, I suspect (I have no proof), that these leaders planned to move their sheep to Crimea – and to gradually push the locals out to the mainland. Russia forestalled that plan and hence the unceasing vitriol being poured by the MSM against everything remotely Russian.
Of course, Ukraine is depopulating at a rapid pace – but it has always historically been indefensible due to its geography. Crimea is another matter entirely.
One thing that hasn’t been noted is that Iran’s indigenous Bavar 373 has supposedly been deployed, and in serial production. Very similar to the S300, the Iranians claim it outperforms the S300 P-series. In Iran, the Bavar’s radar systems are reportedly fully integrated into the S300 systems they received in 2016.
I have no idea whether they’re being built in large enough numbers, but should they start deploying in the Syrian theatre to protect Iranian assets and augmenting the Syrian S300s, USIL’s options will be sharply curtailed. It’ll be a “Go Big, or Go Home” moment. The possibility of this development doubtless contributed to the reapplication of sanctions.
all chess moves are irreversible.
yes..a piece can move to the previous square…if THAT is what you mean……but NOT until your opponent has moved.
Ashkanazi fighter pilots should be considering the composition of their last letters to their families.
You have to hand it to the Russians, they have been very careful no to escalate tensions, the Russians have played a very steady incremental game, they move their pieces very slowly and incrementally, if they tried to deploy these A2AD systems when they first came in, they might’ve provoked a reaction. almost all territories have been liberated, and with the idlib dmz, now instead of jumping for their victory they took a step towards it. they used the shooting down of their plane very nicely to deploy their air defense systems, now Syria has a better defense system than that of turkey.