Iraq’s influential leader Moqtada al-Sadr has announced plans to set up a new resistance group to fight US occupation in the country.
“The resistance will be carried out exclusively by a special group which I will announce later,” Sadr said in a statement read out at a mosque in the holy town of Kufa.
The cleric vowed to uphold resistance against the occupiers until the liberation of Iraq
Sadr said the group will direct its operations against occupying US forces and will be banned from fighting any Iraqis.
The 60,000-strong Mahdi Army led by Moqtada al-Sadr had regularly clashed with US forces since their invasion of Iraq in March 2003. The group, however, declared a ceasefire last year in August, and maintains that so far its fighters have lived up to it.
The announcement follows Sadr’s call for continued protests against negotiations with Washington over the US presence in the country until a referendum is held on the issue.
Iraqis remain wary of an agreement in principle between Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and US president George Bush that would give a legal basis to US troops in Iraq -currently numbering to about 150,000- after the December 31 expiry of a UN mandate defining their current status.
Apart from their recent victory against Maliki’s army, which lacked the resolve to fight and may have been infiltrated with Sadr supporters, is there any evidence that Sadr’s forces would be effective against the American forces? In spite of all the rhetoric we hear about the Mehdi army being equipped and trained by the Iranians is there any real evidence that they are anything but a loosely affiliated and poorly armed militia. It would seem that they lack the discipline, training, and equipment of forces like Hezbollah.
-AA
It’s hard to tell for sure but most reports say that the Mehdi Army which fought in Basra was vastly superior to the one which fought the Americans in Najaf. Moqtada al-Sadr is trying to avoid a direct confrontation with the US forces so we will know for sure only if and when such a confrontation occurs. However, I see now reason why the Mehdi Army could not fully use all the advantages inherent to an insurgency on home turf versus a foreign occupation force (which, to make things worse, is rotated in and out). An insurgency does never win militarily, it wins politically and all it needs not to loose it to survive whatever the occupation forces throw at it. Even Hezbollah, arguably the most formidable insurgent force on the planet, always ends up using its military successes as a means tp a strategic *political* objective.
I would give the Sadrist an B+/A- grade so far. They survived, they confronted the occupation forces three times without loosing, they pushed the Maliki regime to pretend to oppose the SOFA, they made al-Sistani also speak against it, they are reaching out to the Iranians and to the Sunni opposition and they are, by all reports, immensely popular. I say that’s pretty good for a young movement. Sure, its not quite the Divine Victory of 2006, but its a very good start. Will they be able to over-run the Green Zone? Probably not anytime soon. But as long as their political objectives are achieved I would say that their military capabilities are adequate for the task.
What do you think, does this make sense?
It makes sense. It’s just that I am reading Cockburn’s book on Moqtada and the none thing that strikes me is that
even though Sadr may enjoy enormous popular support, I see little evidence that they possess the weaponry or skill of a force like Hezbollah. As much as we hear about efp’s, they are samll fry compared with modern weaponry.
Just imagine how much worse things could get if Sadr’s forces had antitank weapons and the training of Hezbollah. I’m afraid that if the US or Israel does bomb Iran this could be the next step.
Here’s what I mean:
Israeli Merkava Tank V Hizballah fighters using Russian LAW’s
-AA
Agreed. The Mehdi Army is nothing like Hezbollah, you are right. By its level of expertise, Hezbollah is much more like a special operations force (that is why I mostly refer to Hezbollah troops as “operators”)whereas the Mehdi Army is really more typical insurgency in the process of becoming more mature. Its Hezbollah which is the anomaly here.
But still, the Mehdi Army capabilities might be adequate to prevail politically.
Thanks for the very interesting link!