As was predicted by many, in spite of the agreement signed in Moscow, things on the ground in the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan have escalated: the Armenians have claimed that Azeri drones have attacked Armenian tactical ballistic missiles on Armenian soil and the Azeris have confirmed this, saying that this was both a warning and a preemptive attack to protect Azeri civilians.
Bottom line is this: Azerbaijan has now officially attacked Armenian soil (as opposed to Karabakh soil) and Armenia now has the right to appeal to the CSTO. So far, the Armenians have not done so, but now they can and, I believe, probably will do so.
Another interesting development is that the USA has accused Turkey of being involved in this war. This means that by now all three countries Russia, France and the USA are now declaring that the Turks (and or their “good terrorist” proxies from Syria) are involved. Aliev is outraged and accused everybody of lying.
Finally, Azeri and Turkish outlets have claimed the Kurds are now fighting on the Armenian side. However, there have been no verifiable sources for this probably false rumor.
As for the Armenian leader Pashinian, he has accused Aliev of being “Hitler”.
What does all this mean?
Well, for one thing, it was inevitable that the very first ceasefire agreement would be broken. In such situations, they typically are.
The real risk now is that Russia will have to intervene. There are three most likely scenarios for such an intervention:
Peacekeeping operation: that would only be possible if all sides to the conflict agree to such an operation. At this point in time, this is still unlikely, but that could change fairly quickly. However, Russia will only send peacekeepers if the parties agree on a long term political solution to this conflict. Right now, they prefer fighting down to the last bullet, but this will soon change for both parties.
Peacemaking operation: for this to happen, the UNSC should agree to give a mandate to Russia under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. While it appears that Turkey currently has no backer in the UNSC, the US and UK hate for everything and anything Russian will probably secure a double veto (with a possible French veto to boot!) just to avoid Russia succeeding at anything, including bringing peace to the region.
CSTO military intervention: in other words, Russia would strike at Azeri forces and assets to stop the Azeri aggression on Armenia. This is something Russia absolutely will avoid, if at all possible since Russia has absolutely no desire to destroy her excellent partnership with Azerbaijan and her very tenuous and unstable partnership with Turkey (say, in Syria).
It is obvious what Russia will do next: using overt and covert means, she will try to affect the situation on the ground in such a way as to basically force both sides to agree to a Russia-led peacekeeping operation.
The main problem right now is Erdogan who is spending most of his time making inflammatory statements and who is demanding that Turkey be included in any negotiations. The way the Turks want this is to have Turkey negotiate on behalf of Azerbaijan and Russia negotiate on behalf of Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh. So far, Russia has categorically refused this option.
So where do we go from here?
Well, things are probably going to get worse before they get better. Either that, or they will get worse before they get MUCH worse. I hope for the first option, but if Turkey and/or Azerbaijan continue to strike at Armenia or if Armenia recognizes “Artsakh” then all bets are off. We better pray that cool heads prevail on both sides and that Russia can make Erdogan an offer he won’t be able to refuse. For example, the Russians might declare that the Russian contingent in Armenia will now protect the Armenian airspace with Russian air defense systems (ground or air based). If, for no apparent reason, Azeri and/or Turkish aircraft start falling out of the skies, Erdogan might reconsider.
We shall soon find out.
The Saker
How long before the ‘Russian experts’ on FOX declare that Russia stirred up this conflict in order to try for another land grab?
It doesn’t have to be true.
It doesn’t even have to make sense.
It just has to portray Russia as villainous on FOX/CNN and they will repeat it.
FOX? Hey dear, the new Trump republican party is more worried about GLOBALISTS than Putin, all hawks moved to the democratic side, of course in the republican party there are still some neocon globalists, but they are a dying breed, John Mccain (rest in hell) was the last important figure from them.
Update your political views.
The problem is social media companies (like other media companies such as CNN and NYT are propaganda (PROPAGAte an ageNDA) outlets that are staffed throughout by Democrats. They are basically censoring conservative thought and reason.
They are projecting their own severe election interfering onto an external animus they have created for the purpose, Russia.
Yeah Pompeo, Trump, Graham and Bolton are gentle peace loving doves. If you think that either of the two main parties are honest brokers I’ve got some land in the Everglades to sell you.
Isn’t the “Trump Republican Party” also more worried about Iran and China? Groups more friendly to Putin than President “Big Fan of Israel” (Trump’s words) will ever be…? What’s the strategic difference between warmongering against Putin and warmongering against all of Putin’s allies?
And between pulling out of the INF treaty, shipping Javelin missiles to Nuland’s Maidanites in Ukraine (more advanced, distinctly American, lethal aid than what the Obama administration sent them), etc., the Trump administration is also warmongering against Putin.
Fox? You mean CNN, BBC, and Jihadi Julian Röpcke of Bild.
Röpke is an esp. nefarious pos. It’s an lying Anglo-zio infestation of a “media”.
The whole conflict has the potential to let not only go the region go to hell, but also trigger overt and covert alliances. The mad dog Erdowahnsinn is also pouring tons of nuclear waste into people’s souls. I dunno, but how are the turkic peoples all over Europe and Central Asia thinking this will play out? Their reputation is already down the gutter. Hurts to see that this really will inflame hate much more. Had enough good relationships with Turks and Kurds, but man speaking to these guys makes it clear, that they will happily light their residence countries on fire to help either side reach any perceived upper hand in the Near East.
Willingly or unwillingly, Turkey is the bait! The West is trying hard for a long time, to drag Russia into a bigger conflict to bleed it out and than to take it over – if they succeed and I think this time they will, Turkey will be completely wiped out and all of Europe with it – guess that’s what the West need to move on and to finally establish a new technocratic world order but it comes with a steep, steep price 😂
I think the Russian diplomatic service and military will arrange the Peacekeeping directly with both sides.
The full weight of Russia, the Kremlin and Putin’s personal gravitas will make it impossible for them to reject.
I’m betting the logistics is being worked out in the last few days. It could take several more days of planning.
Also, Erdogan has been spoken to directly by Putin about removing his Syrian Islamic terrorists.
This will take a few days to ferry them out and back to Syria or Libya.
If Erdogan hesitates, the Russians will decimate his proxies.
So, Peacekeepers will be going to the combat zone in the days ahead. It seems inevitable.
But there is a lot of preparation to be done first.
Meanwhile, there’s a ceasefire Putin will insist be enforced.
Putin wants both adversaries to remain within the Russian sphere of influence. He won’t want the UN, US, Turkey or France to stick their nose or foot in the area. And his personal prestige is on the line.
Expect the full weight of the Russian military to come to bear on all who resist Putin’s wishes.
Russia has much to lose and Putin isn’t in the mood to lose anything.
Lavrov, discussed this yesterday:
https://tass.com/politics/1212035
“….Russia does not exclude the possibility that Russian military observers may be included in the ceasefire control mechanism in Nagorno-Karabakh, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Wednesday in an interview with the Sputnik, Komsomolskaya Pravda, and Govorit Moskva radio stations.Today it’s not even the peacekeepers [who should participate in the verification mechanism] but the military observers, this should be enough. We think that it will be absolutely correct if these were our military observers but the final word should belong to the sides [of the conflict]. Without a doubt, we go on a premise that both Yerevan and Baku will take into account our alliance, our relations of strategic partnership,” he noted…..”
Hmmm…a bit like Lavrov spent years in friendly discussion with the USA guy who endlessly promised to sort out militant from moderate rebels in Syria????? Even now….more convoys etc going to north east Suria….Turkey has established its 51st post in Idlib…..
@Larch
You are seriously overestimating Russia’s willingness to force a solution. Sentiment is anti incursion. I think Ishenko is right, let them destress and remember the good ol days under the Empire to come begging to go back into the fold. All I see right now Russia is clearly disliked by both populations. Pashinyan and his Armenian Sorosiat are no coincidence.
I think Russia should a very cynical stance and act ruthlessly if their interest are at stake. They should also red lines. Armenia, terrorist in Azerbaijan coupled with a Turkish reunification of both and NATO participation of any country in the Caucasus will mean hot war. I think best biz practices is to deploy bases on all Caucasus states with a direct control of gobermints in all of them after a while. The populations are lost anyway.
There are three most likely scenarios for such an intervention
I believe the 3 Russian intervention scenarios will occur in the reverse order you listed:
*Armenia, desperate because they are surrounded by enemies, will activate CSTO, and Moscow will agree. Activating CSTO will (a) provide Moscow a chance to test & refine new technologies, doctrines, and procedures; (b) Confirm that CSTO is a legitimate & strong organisation; (c) Disrupt Turkish & Israeli plans in the Caucasus; and (d) Force an attitude change in Yerevan.
*If & when CSTO forces fortify Armenia and even kill some ISIS terrorists, Azerbaijan will be forced to acknowledge CSTO’s superior strength, and thus agree with Armenia to provide the CSTO forces a peacekeeping mandate. Perhaps a UN mandate mixing Turkish & CSTO forces doing “joint patrols” can allow all parties to “save face.”
The main problem right now is Erdogan who is spending most of his time making inflammatory statements and who is demanding that Turkey be included in any negotiations.
It was, and still is bizarre to me why President Putin would encourage Russia’s best defence technologies, S-400 & Su-57, to be sold to Turkey. If the average pundit, based on open sources, could see that Erdogan is not trustworthy, then surely President Putin knows more; yet he trusted Erdogan? Saving Erdogan from a coup, and restoring economic relations should have been enough carrot to Erdogan, but S-400s should not have been transferred until Turkey withdraws from NATO, and more importantly, withdraws support for ISIS + al-Qaeda.
That said, let us hope the Russian “tripwire” force in Armenia does not get destroyed by the Turkey+Azerbaijan+Israel+ISIS alliance.
I believe the 3 Russian intervention scenarios will occur in the reverse order you listed:
I intended this as a list, not a sequence.
Kind regards
The Saker
Dick Lenning
“It was, and still is bizarre to me why President Putin would encourage Russia’s best defence technologies, S-400 & Su-57, to be sold to Turkey. If the average pundit, based on open sources, could see that Erdogan is not trustworthy, then surely President Putin knows more; yet he trusted Erdogan?”
If going by your own argument then Putin did not safe Erdogan but Russia as he should because he must have had the knowledge that what would replace Erdogan would be worse for Russia. It is obvious that if the coup had succeeded Erdogan would have been replaced by a CIA puppet at Russia’s backyard. Think of the consequences of such a scenario for Russia, so Putin sold this qualitative weapons to Turkey to keep Erdogan safe and make it difficult for him to fully return to the US camp.
It may not be a perfect or even a good plan but this appears to be the best Russia can do for now in making sure the CIA/deep state did not regain Turkey and I think Iran too agree that Erdogan is lesser of the two evils.
It is obvious that if the coup had succeeded Erdogan would have been replaced by a CIA puppet at Russia’s backyard.
I agree that saving Erdogan from a coup was a good move, lesser of two evils, etc. I also agree that restoring trade, and building TurkStream pipeline was a good reward for Erdogan’s change in behaviour.
I do not agree, however that Putin should have authorised delivery of S-400s to Turkey. Given Erdogan’s moves in the Caucausus, continued support for Idlib terrorists, and his moves in Libya, I do not see how Putin can move forward with sales of Su-57 to Turkey.
Consider that going by great strategists, the aim is not to truly reveal your strengths and plans but rather deceive the enemy. What if all those blunders we see Putin doing and Erdogan’s belligerence is just a ruse to confuse NATO? What if Erdogan is being evasive with his true intentions and lighting up fires that Russia can solve but in the process project an image of conflict with Russia, to excuse/hide other things that Erdogan is doing in siding with Russia to unravel NATO? The selling of key strategic assets by Russia to Turkey is the dead give away. Why would Putin do it unless he Is privy to some classified information of the real intentions of Turkey? For example, Erdogan’s Syrian terrorists must be terminated intelligently without triggering the backlash in Turkey from same terrorists if they figured out Erdogan’s betrayal. So, Libya and even this conflict could be Turkey’s way of quietly disposing of them, and this might explain Putin’s patience with Erdogan’s shenanigans.
How can Turkey antagonize US, NATO so openly without blowback? By feigning an impossible Neo Ottoman empire rebuilding to explain Erdogan’s megalomaniasm and irrational actions. This could be the only way of slowly weakening NATO without the outright blowback for outright betrayal, by simultaneously pretending to irk Putin.This seems more likely to me than Putin is duped by Erdogan narrative. But I could be wrong. Just my thoughts with no data or any other proof.
It may not be as bad as you think. Suppose Erdogan wants to go against Putin, well, how long can the Russian systems last without new parts?
Exactly how would a CIA puppet be worse than Erdogan for Russia?
I know!
Perhaps he would have remained in NATO? Maybe Amerikastani nuclear weapons would still have been at Incirlik? Perhaps he would have sent headchoppers and troops into Syria, colonised Afrin, sent headchoppers and troops into Libya, saved the slave trading, refugee smuggling, anti Russia GNA? Could he have sent headchoppers and planes and drones to Azerbaijan and start a serious conflagration on Russia’s underbelly?
After all we know Erdogan would never do any of those things!
If Erdogan were replaced by a CIA puppet, Syria and Turkey would have gone to war – a war that will involve NATO.
Biswapriya
You have decided to read my comment with a prejudge mind, but let me explain further. No nation or leader have a perfect policy and that includes Putin, to me he’s just a tactician and good manager with one of the best intelligence agencies through which he receives information which most of his decisions rest on.
So he’s no magician and no matter what his admirers say about him he also make wrong decision sometimes but what cannot be denied is that he tried to do his best for Russia based on his secular outlook. So was the decision to save Erdogan an error? Maybe. Could he have made better decision? Probably or probably not, what we all tried to do here is to make an educated guess with nothing compared to the type of information at a government disposal.
Putin may have saved Erdogan hoping for the best relationship after such episode but the neo sultan turns out to be a maverick and a loose cannon, but how did that end for Ali Abdullah Saleh? The sultan days are number.
Anyone trusting Erdogan at any time needs serious help.
First of all, let me make clear that I am a Russia and Putin supporter (lest my post attract howls of protests and vilification).
The point raised for discussion by Biswapriya (and others) was that Russian policy and actions are very puzzling. Like supplying S-400 to Turkey. Now can you believe it? A challenged Russia manages to create a state of the art weapon and instantly turns it over to Turkey (and hence NATO). Surely there were other ways to keep Erdogon placated other than offering him your jugular and handing over the sharpest razor you possess.
Then there is the big puzzle of the way Russia keeps repeating – and repeating – and repeating – its mistakes in dealings with the West, especially with the US, Britain, Germany and France. These have spat on Russia’s face not one but dozens of times, continue to harm Russia economically whatever way they can, and yet? Russian behavior towards them remains the same! Being polite and diplomatic and correct in behavior are fine, but remaining subservient and obsequious is a different thing. What crumbs from the Western table does Russia hope to get? The West has not Russia dine at the same table as them for thousands of years. Why on earth don’t Russians see the facts the way they are?
The US did not let Russia get away with placing nuclear bombs in Cuba, some hundred miles away from its coastline. Yet NATO B-52 bombers laden with nuclear weapons dance around Russian borders, brazenly declaring that they are conducting war drills to “deter Russian aggression”. Perhaps one day some Curtis Le May type of deranged US/NATO General (and there are plenty of them!) may decide to let fly some of those nuclear tipped missiles at Russia. Then what?
Perhaps I lack the acumen to appreciate Russia’s game of geopolitical chess. But all I see is blunder after blunder.
The nuclear missiles that the USSR wanted to place in Cuba were a reaction to the US putting nuclear missiles in Turkey. During the Cuba crisis they negotiated an agreement that included that the US took their nuclear missiles out of Turkey and the USSR wouldn’t put them into Cuba.
Note that when you say, “The West has not Russia dine at the same table,” “the West” is not the same thing as the banker gangsters who control much of the West (and the East). Please check out Tarpley’s “U.S. Civil War: The US-Russian Alliance that Saved the Union.” The Bank of England oligarchs were prevented from sending naval vessels to aid the Confederacy (the banksters were on the US South’s side) because Tsar Alexander II sent Russian ships to back up the Union first. After this, President Lincoln’s Secretary of the Navy, Gideon Welles wrote, “God bless the Russians!”
Now, the assassination of Lincoln leading to the Federal Reserve oligarchs taking over the US, the assassination of Alexander leading to the Bolshevik oligarchs taking over Russia, etc. turned both countries on their heads, but it shows that not everyone follows the banksters or their corrupt ideologies, just like how not all Russians support Bolshevism and eventually kicked it away.
This is why Putin, Lavrov, etc. keep calling Americans, etc. their “partners.” Yes, Disgusted, some people (Erdogan included) will always want slaves, not partners, but won’t regular, decent people, who can be communicated with directly via the Internet and alternative media, stand for better? If Russia throws diplomacy to the wolves, stops waking people up, and fights the entire money mafia, then the “international clique” will win like it won the previous world wars.
Thank you for expressing word by word what have been my personal my opinion and my own vision of what Putin’s stance has been for a decade face to the continuing hostility and provocation by the US Empire and its Europeans puppet states. For having defended these views for a decade I have been called many times a warmonger, a complete ignoramus and a peasant incapable of understanding the subtleties of world politics and the fine, genius mind of the masterful chess player. After all I used to say many times that if Putin was left to follow his own personal foreign policy face to the West (“My first priority is to have good relations with the U.S.”) all this story would end up with NATO armies camping in Red Square and their commanders demanding that he vacates his office in the Kremlin for them to establish their HQs there and with him protesting that such is not a “helping attitude by his Western partners”. Fortunately some people around him had enough of that song and told him he couldn’t let go Crimea and that he couldn’t let Assad being Qadaffi-ed so to speak. And here we are, except for those two instances, Russian foreign policy has been a disaster during the last decade, all what Putin can show for his “good neighbor policy”: is abuse, sanctioning, more sanctioning and provocation after provocation, all he has to show for his efforts is NATO installed only a few hundred miles from the Kremlin, something that would have made any leader of the Soviet era to be shot for treason. With Putin at the helm Russian has been made the target of every possible form of attack by NATO, bar only a shooting war or a nuclear attack and all that with absolutely no tit for tat response. That’s the real result of his foreign policy, a Russia far more vulnerable and more under siege than the one he would have had him decided to put his foot down in Syria in 2011 by declaring that country under the Russian nuclear umbrella and sent nuclear tipped missiles and then sending everything Yanukovich needed in 2014 to crush the neocon-Fascist coup d’etat. Most likely Russia would have experienced exactly the same kind of Western punishment it has suffered anyway but the world would know by now that the man in the Kremlin is a tough cookie, no one to play with, which is absolutely not the case as by now. Nowadays he looks like more like a guy from which everyone can get whatever he wants and to whom they can pay for that with a kick in the teeth. Disastrous is the only way I can describe his foreign policy of the last decade.
To be fair, Gato, the banker gangsters were hitting Germany and Japan with sanctions and military provocations similar to Russia now. Did looking like “a tough cookie” by attacking Poland or Pearl Harbor do any favors, long-term? Or did the banksters pretend the attacks happened for no reason, circle the wagons even tighter around their subjects and proxies, then use their numbers to absorb twice the military casualties and defeat Germany, Japan, and the other Axis countries…?
The banksters are trying to provoke a major escalation because they want a major escalation. Say Putin needlessly gave them such an escalation with “nuclear tipped missiles [to Syria]… everything Yanukovich needed in 2014 to crush the neocon-Fascist coup:” What’s the next few moves, Gato? Russia lacks the force projection to push an offensive, meaning the banksters would keep the initiative.
And then what? The banksters would fall back on assets they control in other places like NATO countries, the Five Eyes nations, the EU, etc., and revamp their war machines using immediate losses to galvanize support for themselves (e.g. “another Shoah” in “Israel” and Ukraine if “butcher” Assad and “new Hitler” Putin are not stopped). Essentially, it would be a repeat of the re-industrialization under policies like FDR’s New Deal and the Soviets’ Five-Year Plans.
Would moral, rational voices like The Saker be able to counter those narratives in the banksters’ countries like they are successfully doing now? Hence why there are not tens of thousands of Americans actively fighting in Syria, Ukraine, etc.? Or would anti-war voices be censored, prosecuted, and persecuted as “Russian agents” more ruthlessly than ever? Would Russia’s nuclear arsenal make the banksters back down? Or don’t the banksters believe they can hide in their underground cities if it comes down to the Samson Option?
I understand how Putin’s… open hand strategies seem disastrous, especially when we see so much of closed fist strategies. But open hand really is the better option.
The usa tradeed nuclear miss
Es in cuba for nuclear missles in turkey. ..just fixin it for ya
Quite stunning the Azeris would attack Armenia directly knowing they would draw Russia into the war against them. Seems like a dumb move. Unless if course you have a mega-backer…bigger than Turkey.
The hidden hands have tried to provoke Russia to WW3 in Ukrainia, then in Syria and did not work…is this their last option? Turkey is only doing what its masters in NATO tell her.
And honestly, that pattern of proxies provoking escalations with Ex-Bolshevik Russia goes at least back to the Russo-Georgian War in 2008. President Saakashvili was installed by the Bush administration. Saakashvili is now wanted in Georgia on corruption charges, but he popped up again during the Ukraine escalation attempt, and that has been going straight through the Obama and Trump administrations.
Historically, this strategy generally works for the banker gangsters. For example, in reference to the US’s military provocations against Japan, Major General Smedley Butler sarcastically wrote in “War is a Racket” that Japan “of course, will be pleased beyond expression to see the United States fleet so close.” That was in 1935, years before the war, never mind the attack on Pearl Harbor, which was really Japan’s response to years of provocations.
Nowadays, however, Russia has options created by the Internet, alternative media, 3rd/4th-gen warfare, etc., so it does not have to respond like the banksters require.
But if the Armenians are launching ballistic missiles from Armenia proper to Azerbaijan proper (assuming that is the case), than it is not so stunning why the Azeris would do this.
Harry Red,
From Saker’s write-up it appears this was a pre-emptive attack by Azerbaijan.
“the Azeris have confirmed this (drone attack within Armenian territory), saying that this was both a warning and a preemptive attack to protect Azeri civilians.”.
Maybe Azeribaijan’s defensive anti-missile technology against Armenian missiles is completely overwhelmed and they were perfectly justified to go and take out the source of the missiles in enemy territory…? It’s still a risky move though, politically, given the defence pact between Armenia and Russia.
Hi Serbian Girl – here is a good article about Azerbaijan – from 2012 – but still current
https://www.globalresearch.ca/azerbaijan-mafia-state/29818?fbclid=IwAR0U9PoQTftowNQYPzqij4Mr0XxvRyAT6Klb4WrKB0obQ594Y1DYT0c5a3Y
The shocking and staged video of two Armenian prisoners (one old and one young) shot by Azeri soldiers is another step towards the worst…
to be honest, both sides are committing atrocities en masse, especially against prisoners of war…
it is pretty horrible, but I chose not to post that here as it would really add little to the discussion
cheers
The Saker
You are right. OK, we are Christians and that is reason that our symphaties are more on Armenian side but they are not different from Azeris.
To be honest, both sides commit terrible crimes. Their hatred is something unimaginable even for us in Ex-Yugoslava.
Actually, in Ex-Yugoslavia, except minor incidents there are not huge problems.
Serbs, Croats, Bosniaks, Montenegrians, Macedonians, Slovenians…ordinary people communicate quite normally.
Only politicians bastards and their orchestrated media trying to keep tensions all the time. With Western support.
It is not possible between Azeris and Armenians. Only hatred between Serbs and Albanians can be compared to that and even that hatred is not comparable to hatred between Azeris and Armenians.
Russian and SCTO peacekeepers in Nagorno Karabah…it is only solution at this moment. And I do not see any reason for both sides to be against this.
Bosnian Croat,
Paisan, this is off topic but Serbs in general don’t hate. Others hate the Serbs. I am afraid that there is no bigger hatred in the world of that exercised by Croatinised Serbs towards their former brothers who still call themselves Serb. Armenians and Azerbaijanis kill each others soldiers by bullet, an unlucky civilian gets killed or wounded by a mortar grenade where Croats barbarically annihilated Serb babies where the lucky ones received a bullet to the head.
Yes, Serbs and Croats do talk but that is due to the fact that the Serbs still have not come to term what had really happened to them in WWII and due to the fact that Serbs are ruled by quislings but that ought to change one day. Also Croatian secret services have a free hand in Serbia and influence local politicians who create pro-Croatian policies. Croatians linked to HDZ (ruling party in Cro) own the company in Serbia that publishes textbooks for primary and secondary school students where they push pro-Croatian agenda. Even embarrassingly large number of University professors in Serbia are on the take promoting disgusting anti-Serb agenda.
This is a pile of nonsense not worth to respond.
Marko, you are barking against wrong tree. If all Croats were like Bosnian Croat we would never had a war in Yugoslavia. It is not his fault that Serbian politicians allow Croatian secret service to roam free in Serbia and professors teach Croatian propaganda.
Bosnian Croat was supporting Serbian case on this forum ever since, and that should be appreciated. See, in Bosnia not all Croats are the same, not all serbs are nor Muslims. Where I lived in Bosnia, Croats were on the Serbian side. A few of my personal friends from Muslim ruled city were rescued by Croats. Evan around Sarajevo, Serbs and Croats did not fight each other. Near Zenica and Varesh serbs helped evacuate Croatian civilians over Vlasich mountain.
Croata in Herzegovina are very different story, very different people. Other areas where Serbs suffered in WW2 and 1990 wars are along northern Bosnian border, river Sava. Most of them came from the other side of the border, from Sl.Brod – Viknovci or around Zagreb – very few Croats live immediately south of river Sava, that is Serbo-Muslim domain. Those are the ones you are talking about. Even among them, not everybody is the same.
I could guess where the Bosnian Croat is from, we might even know each other, but I will keep that for myself.
In any case, Bosnian Croat is the least deserving person to scolding for Ustasha crimes.
My remarks are not against Bosnian Croat whom I respect although he did insinuate in his comment above that Serbs hate Albanians… Serbs in general don’t hate. You haven’t seen hatred until you saw Croatian hatred toward anything or anyone Serb. As for Ustashe, why is it unacceptable to call them Croats? We call the Nazis German, don’t we? Cheers
I’m sorry Mod for straying off topic.
I am not a Christian and my sympathies are with the Armenians. And my sympathies are with the Armenians because they’re, whether they realise it out admit it out not, are fighting against a NATO project to further strangle and isolate Russia. And since Russia is just about the only military bastion standing against NATO enslavement of the world, any war to strangle and destroy Russia is a war to strangle and destroy us all.
Biswapriya,
Thanks for stating your case so factually.
Just because one side in a war is Christian does not mean all Christians everywhere should stop using their brains and automatically side with the Christian group.
Please, this war is not Muslim against Christians or vice versa, so don’t make it a religious one. No one should support any side based on their religious affiliations. Understand the intentions of the side that has started the aggression, Azerbaidjan, and the intentions of the Armenians in Karabagh defending their right to live freely and peacefully on their ancestral territory.
I am no expert at all, just been reading the Saker and other sites for a few years, but… aren’t we having in the Azeri side, at the same time:
– regular Azeri soldiers (chiites)
– Turkish “observers” (sunnites, be them scolds of moderate or practical Attaturkism, supporters of thugish Erdoganism, dreamers of Neoottomanism, or whatever)
– mercenaries from the Iraqi and Syrian battlefronts [radical sunnites, gathered by the Muslim Brotherhood (“political sunnites”), instrumentalized by the MI6 (theoretically anglican), funded by Gulf regimes (sunnites) and Israel (theoretically judaism?), armed by an SPV from Azerbaiyan set up by Petreus and his funders from a well known fund, and carried by Turkish MIT…
And all this with the supervision of NATO (a tool of apatrid anomist banksters and billionnaires with a globalist agenda (maybe Khazarian-Talmudic [hence the hate for Russia], maybe Luciferean, maybe Ahrimanic, depending on the source), and the meddling of Israel and its hatred towards Iran and its using of Azerbaiyan as a bombing springboard against Iran. No wonder I read longtime ago (in Le Monde Diplomatique, I believe, which strangely hardly criticizes Israel, a common stance in post-Chiracian France) that Iran was extremely worried by the collusion Azerbaiyan-Israel and even willing to help Armenia under the table, *despite* being chiites the Azeris…
This looks to me everything but a Muslim-Christian reenacting… rather it makes me think of all those tabletop wargames from the early 80s where a WWIII would start somewhere at the Curtain…
In fact, I’m surprised of the scarce mentions to Iran in this thread and topic. Surely they can not be calm being so close to this conflict.
The whole point with Maidan Color Revolution in the Ukraine was to drag Putin into a lose-lose situation. If he invaded Donbass to protect the Russian-speaking population from Nazis, then all the Western fantasies of “Russian aggression” would have be proven true. If not, then he could have been accused of “treason” (at home as well as abroad). Luckily he managed to find a middle ground in a rather cunning way.
It looks to me like the current conflict between Armenia and Azerbajan has a similar purpose.
And these fantasies have not been “proven true” in the Westernaganda how? As far as they’re concerned, these are incontrovertible and set in stone:
1. Russia invaded Ukranazistan.
2. Russia shot down MH17.
3. Russia poisoned the Skripals and Navalny.
Russia got all the blame for something it didn’t do but should have, and didn’t get any of the benefits that it would have if it had actually invaded Ukranazistan, eliminated the Nazi coup regime, or at least liberated Novorossiya absolutely and completely.
As far as the banker gangsters and their rich-get-richer wars are concerned, are people in media having something “proven true” good enough? Or do the people on the ground, actually fighting in the banksters’ wars need something “proven true”…?
Biswa, we are a long way from the days when regular people hearing about the banksters’ enemies largely came through the banksters. For example, in 1945, Chicago Tribune journalist Walter Trohan said that because of “censorship restrictions in the United States,” he was unable to report on Japan’s seven month-old surrender offers until two weeks after Japan was nuked.
On the other hand, in 2013, we were able to see evidence and analysis for why Syria’s “moderate” extremists were behind the chemical weapon attacks, not the Assad government, within hours of the attacks. The Armed Forces Tea Party, American military could organize anti-war protests on Facebook within days.
The main problem for Russia that it is quite often reactive instead of proactive, which has some unfortunate consequences as the result, mainly, you get to choose between unfavorable solutions and minimize the damage (please note I’m trying to see this from the perspective of purely Russian interests, not taking the moral dimension into the consideration).
Let’s not pretend that the stakes aren’t high for Russia in this for her extremely sensitive region. My opinion was and still is that Russia should exert strong pressure on Erdogan to stop fanning the flames. Azerbaijan would not feel as confident as it seems to be now to pursue this war without strong Turkish backing. Pressuring Erdogan to abandon his aggressive designs in the Caucasus, I think, is a key to reaching a political solution to the conflict.
The deluded Turk needs to be shown the door – to get the hell out from Caucasus and never come back! His beloved head-choppers that he had relocated from Syria to Libya and now to NK have a very limited lifespan – they are surrounded there and these that surrounded them are just waiting for the orders. We should well guess who these guys are. Agree that Azeris will have to pull their heads in once the Turk is out of the picture. I believe that is what Russia is working on right now. They have quite a few levers to use with this “loose canon” Turk and these levers will be activated. As I said before this man never learns his lessons. This time he might have to do that hard way!
I think Erdogan will be taken out soon by the cia. Perhaps once he’s served his purpose or if they think he’s lost the plot.
I think that Russia, being part of the region, knows the mentality of the inhabitants. So, every now and then a fire is needed to burn off excess anger and frustration. Unfortunate as it is, it has been the way of life everywhere really but especially in that part of the world for eons. Nothing will change that. Why bother with preemption and risk uniting Russia’s enemies. Contain it and move on. Local chieftains, including Armenia’s Soros-loving Nicol Pashynian, have to learn to respect Russia and its interests. One cannot simply open Pentagon bio-labs, discriminate against everything Russian at Russia’s doorstep and expect all that to go by unnoticed. Armenians have to deal with their Vucic the same way the Serbs will have to deal with the original Vucic.
Russia MUST be more reactive then proactive for next 10 and maybe even 15 years.
Next 10 to 15 years Russia have crucial task to undertake and finish all vital projects … russian future depends on that.
That’s why Russia have to avoid to be dragged into any huge conflict which would exhaust Russia economically.
And it is of greatest importance for entire world. Because only Russia can resist to USA and UK imperialism.
Only in multipolar world small nations have any chance to survive.
No wonder that Empire of Evil will try to do anything to get Russia into trouble and disaster. Like Afganistan in eightees.
So far, Russia and Putin have managed to avoid traps. This mess in Caucasus is probably the most serious challenge for Russia.
Russia is too important and has to preserve itself. One day in near future Russia will be strong enough to be able to undertake more PROACTIVE strategy.
The danger of becoming “proactive” is that Russia will once again become an Imperial power that feels it must intervene everywhere. That always ends badly. Once thing, however, the Russians could do better, is to treat their Western “partners” like thieves and confidence tricksters. They must trust nothing the West say or do. It was the Russians that gave the Dutch MH17 Black Boxes unopened. Why didn’t they jointly open the Black Boxes in Moscow and give the data to the world? More recently they allowed the Germans to take Navalny out of the country. Why did they do this when Russian medical experts was that he couldn’t be moved. Russia could have invited German doctors to assist in Russian hospitals and that would have been the end of the story. I know hindsight is a wonderful thing but I don’t believe North Korea would have made these mistakes. If the Russian government starts to believe that everything their Western “partners” say are lies and that they are always conspiring to destroy Russia, then they won’t be far wrong.
@Michael Thomas
Not necessarily, these are extremes we’re talking about, ie, being defensive and reactive and being an aggressive imperialistic warmongering power (in the mold of the USA). Staying on the defense all the time means giving your enemies the initiative, and that’s quite dangerous. Russia should, I believe must act proactively in order to protect its vital interests. Putin has, in many ways, doing exactly this, but it feels like it was the bare minimum, ie, the annexation of Crimea, intervention in Syria, etc. However, this may not suffice, as we can see, the Empire continues to besiege Russia from all sides: Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia…
My belief is that the leaders of the Empire do not truly fear Russia, their propaganda is meant for public consumption and has various internal uses, but they would not behave as they do if they truly feared a Russian response. Despite his many flaws, Stalin remains the only leader in modern Russian history who the West feared and respected.
It’s not a part of Russian culture to resort to flexing its muscles (that’s what Westerners do) but a strong message to its enemies is something entirely else.
Now, the key question is, when’s the moment to intervene? Where do you draw the line? In some circumstances, the cost of inaction can be high, while in others, it’s wise not to act. Russia should act in the Caucasus, I believe that much we agree upon.
That have been always the problem with Putin , he is extremely reactive , extremely predictable , too soft and too polite , everyone knows putin is very insecure at the time of using force , and you see that in action in syria.. With nato and israel targeting with cruise missiles and drones every week syria.. they even lost a intel plane with dozens of russians officers.. and i don’t think the excuse of how the plane crashed.. there is no way that syria hit the plane with an s-200 .. they denied such claims when israel came with that.. so likely israel airforce hit the plane..and he is the only one to blame for their deaths.. the problem is , when you show weakness to bullies
they will continue bullying you , again and again and again , and showing weakness ,softness and politeness only encourage your enemies to take advantage of you.. and this is why nobody respect Russia.. no body give a damn about russia interest.. russia is a country that have not a single ally that helped russia in syria ,when he asked help..to fight terrorist..
all this problems putin’s Russia face in the world.. all of them are consequence of Russia lack of leadership ,
lack of influence , putin have been developing russia in the wrong places..aside of military ,russian civilian business have been its economy based as a gas station and a sport power and as a wheat super power.. as a tourism spot.. this are the way putin “Develops” russia. while at same time allows the west to lead in world high tech industry ,that is so influential business in the world.. what putin promotes is development without growth.
building cosmetical changes in russia, more tourism ,winning more gold medals in olympics , is not going to convince europe to abandon nato.. europeans only follow leadership.. those that lead the world.. and putin neither russia are leaders.. they are followers.. when it comes to business.. this is the core of all the problems of russia face.. it does not influence the world.. lack of leadership ,while US in the other have an empire of influence with their business . If russia had leadership.. was a super business power leading the world into the future. and already had an alternative to american business.. then europe will find no need to follow the american system and will join the russian one .. and in alliance with europe.. russia will have far more tools ,far more streght to pressure turkey and azerbaijan to stop their wars in syria and armenia or else face total economic isolation. from the world.. but by building better nukes or breaking banana food records.. or earning more sport medals ,putin is not going to impress any nation into abandoning the anglo american jewish system that dominates the world. all this wars that russia face.. is consequence of putin’s russia incapability of influencing those nations towards russia orbit… nobody will follow a country that complains and complainsa nd more complains about the west unfairness but do nothing about it.. they follow the american system , american UN , american internet and later wonder why no one takes russia seriously or respect them.. if russia wants respect.. needs to abandon its outdated president and modernize the nation economy ,to directly compete with anglo system.. the only nation who have leadership is china with their business ,russia needs to look at china ,the things they doing right. the only gold medals putin’s need to look for .. are space exploration medals and high tech business and entertainment that compete directly with the western world..
That weak man Putin was the one who saved Syria from total chaos.
You seem to be forgetting that Israel has the US to back them and any Russian counterattack would’ve been termed as aggression against Jews. Moves like that have to be avoided for the greater good
I’m quite sure that there would be a day within the next 20 years when Israel will be answered accordingly for their heinous crimes.
I believe this is all part of:
– A Turkish adventure and power play. They are trying to extend their sphere of influence, like what they are doing in Syria and Libya.
– The Turks are trying to fill the gaps left by the US and Western powers as those powers start to decline. It almost seems as if Erdogan is in a hurry. As if there is some kind of window of opportunity that he needs to quickly take advantage of.
– The numerous videos made of the drone strikes by Turkish drones is a big commercial and marketing success for the Turkish weapons industry. NK is becoming the testing and commercial marketing ground for Turkish weapons.
– The Russians know all of this and they are playing the game. Its all one big game, where Western declining influence is being filled by Russia, Turkey, Israel and Iran, and these actors are either cooperating or competing in some departments.
– All of these parties are heavily marketing their weapons and drone technology, Israeli and Turkish drones, Russian Ballistic missiles and air defenses, Iranian cruise missiles and torpedo’s, etc. etc. These are multi-billion dollar industries and they influence government policy and strategies.
Interesting thinking. The west is leaving a vacumn and turkey will fillin the void. Good thinking, great game wise.
An interesting result of this conflict is that in most of the likely endings US/NATO come out the big winners. They will gain a toehold (first political then military) in either of the two warring states. Russia has now come to be fully surrounded (360 degrees) by smoldering, explosive and toxic dumps – Georgia, Ukraine, Armenia, Azerbaijan, the gaggle of Baltic lunatic asylums, Poland, and the not-too-friendly Swedes.
Now isn’t that a massive display of Russian failure at policy and strategy?
So what is Russia supposed to do in your opinion
To attack all of these countries
Do not be too dramatic. If all those countries turn into asylums for lunatics it is their own problem, not russian problem …
I am not being dramatic, just literal. Russia is literally (not dramatically) getting surrounded by hostile and unreliable states into which NATO is drooling to get into. With St. Petersburg and Moscow coming nearer and nearer within enemy sights and missiles, the danger to Russia is obvious to see. What will wake you up? NATO troops 35 kms from the gates of Moscow a la WW2?
If I express concern it is because I hope and wish for Russia’s success. A strong Russia (and China) is (are) the only obstacles to America establishing its “full spectrum dominance” over the planet. The Nazis were less ambitious than the Americans. They only wanted control over continental Europe. Our American friends have openly declared that they want full spectrum dominance over planet Earth and Space – perhaps over God himself.
Ther is a far more potwnt obstacle.to full spectrum dominance. It is the disgust of every day mortals everywhere.
Jesus once said ” the meek will inheret the earth.”
It is worth pondering on what that means and what the meek might have to do to claim that inheritance.
There’s no way the West can attack Russia on any of those fronts in the first place. You seem to have forgotten the state-of-the-art defenses in Russia for all potential threats.
Let those neighbors be messy cesspits if they wish for it, Russia owes them nothing.
To disgusted
Think again. To answer your question – not at all! Russia does not have any failures with regard to the former soviet republics, very much the OTHER WAY round! People in the West just cannot see it..US and NATO(same thing) will NEVER have any foothold there. Russia is surrounded? Are you kidding here?! Try that!!
I’m sure the Putin amen brigade will find a way to explain it away even if Kaliningrad is captured by NATO and Crimea is threatened with invasion.
“Not-too-friendly Swedes” you say?
Unfortunately I can hardly name a European country which is currently more rabidly Russophobic than Sweden – with the Ukraine as the only possible exception. And this despite still insisting on our (largely non-existent and hypocritical) “neutrality”.
Agree 100% … though it has been like that for looooong, long time. The word “currently” doesn’t really reflect the time span.
During the 90’s Serbs replaced Russians as #1 vilains but with Putin Russia took the lead again.
It is not much better across the border where i live raggmunk.
Dessverre er Erna Solberg og resten av stortinget bestående av forrædere og lavpannede akademikere akkurat som deres “feminist” regjering.
Sorry for going native and the norwegian rant mods😔
Does anyone still think that Russia should not have stopped the war starting on the first place with a few phone calls and a public statement that it would not allow the facts on the ground to be changed by violence?
The Amerikastani position can be safely dismissed. The Ottomans are still part of NATO and Amerikastan playing good cop to Erdogan’s bad cop is just meant to put the pressure on Pashinyan to join NATO. Which he will rather than ask Russia to save him.
Why has Pashinyan not recognised Artsakh yet? Why is he committed to defending territory even he acknowledges to be Azeri? Why unless he intends to abandon it at the earliest opportunity?
I don’t know how true this is but elsewhere I read that many of the soldiers going to fight in Nagorno Karabakh are anti Pashinyan veterans of the 1988-93 war and that he had had some of them imprisoned earlier. If that’s true, he’s just waiting for them to be killed off so as to eliminate opposition to his regime.
Remember the people saying “why should Russians die for Armenia”? They didn’t need to then. Now, whatever they do, some are probably going to die.
Perhaps anti Pashinyan veterans are there with different goal. Most revolutions in Europe were done during state of war. People are armed, by the same government they oppose. In time of peace, it is impossible to bring down powers supported by Zio Nazies. However, everybody knows who traitors and quislings are. Once soldiers come back from battlefield, they are still armed and pissed off on those who imposed the war on them. NATO and CIA cannot help their stooges at those times.
Eastern europeans do revolutions as well, only color used is red. No need for Russia to take back Armenia to people. That would not be a wise move with NATO stooges in power. However, they can always influence, encourage and support anti Pashinyan veterans. Perhaps that is gapening, nobody talks about that for obvious reasons.
In the end, Erdogan won´t lose, far-fetched as it might seem, he has managed to stir to a frenzied Aliyev, and if the conflict ends with a tie or an inconclusive result after all the posturing, the Aliyev clan might find itself in the middle of a Turkish color revolution, with the turks placing their own puppet. ( Not that Aliyev is not already a Turkish puppet).
Result: Turkey gaiins full control, a foothold on the Caspian Sea. After the looting of Syria, Erdogan and his family have developed a taste for the oil business, especially if it is cheaply stolen.
That means the oilfields of Baku, and the gas fields of Azerbaijan and the control of the TAP gas pipeline, Turkmenistan and Georgia dependent on Turkey’s whim.
For the Turks casualties are part of business. Following video appeared on Colonel Cassad blog.
listen to this conversation, translation in the captions:
https://youtu.be/6pgxn1VEbMw
There are a couple of videos appearing on Rusvesna, with an apparent strike on Jihadist encampment in NK, apparently Russian strike.
For the Sultan, Oil has become the name of the game, money makes the world go round. The Central Asia Stans seem to be charmed by the audacity of the Sultan, and polls show that they are more attracted to an alliance with the Neo Ottoman empire.
From Azerbaijan opens up the wide open steppe and mountains of the Turkmen homelands.
Yes, you’re right. Erdogan is not going to crash and burn, no matter what the fantasies of people desperate to explain away the Russian appeasement campaign. And since Erdo is NATO, anything controlled by him is de facto NATO.
That’s your wish. Noone who tried to grab a lot could stay around for long and that’s the same for erdogan.
All your assumptions are based on a favourable end in the war for turkey. That would be wrong if there’ll be a major blow to their side. It’s not a cakewalk for the Azeri side as the things go on right now.
One wonders who the “dear master” is the syrian militants are referring too….thanks for posting link.
And
https://southfront.org/80-hts-militants-were-killed-in-recent-russian-airstrikes-on-syrias-greater-idlib-photos/
Could be the supply base from where they came
There is a fourth option and that is for the Armenians to gain a devastating military victory in the battlefield. The Armenians have more incentive to fight hard – they are surrounded and had suffered genocide at the hands of their ethnic opponents. And the Armenians are proven to be mean and skillful fighters.
So perhaps CSTO can facilitate an Armenian military victory without Russia getting involved in the actual fighting. Turn Armenia into a sort of modern day Prussia.
How? The way Russia allegedly “invaded Ukranazistan” to help the DPR and LPR annihilate the Ukranazis at Debaltsevo? Even if Russia wanted to, that’s a little more difficult in Armenia with no land borders with Russia and no covert way of sending troops and heavy weaponry at all.
Train the Armenians to fight better. Train them to produce arms. Look at the Yemenis who would have shoved the you know who and their US backers into the Red Sea if they are better trained, including producing their own drones and missiles. Desperation makes very fast and good learners since their lives depend on learning fast and well.
The precursor of the Prussia – Brandenburg, was invaded and plundered during the 40 years. They only managed to prevent further invasions and got a respectable place at the negotiation table when they finally managed to raise and trained an army of 8,000 men. From then on, Brandenburg burnished a military tradition which was inherited by the enlarged state of Prussia (which later on became Germany). It was said that Prussia was an army which has as state. But that was the only way Brandenburg/Prussia, surrounded by ferocious and greedy powers who were bigger, richer and more populous than it (France, Austria, and yes, Russia), could survive. From about 3 million people, Brandenburg expanded into the Germany of 60 million just before WW1.
The population of Armenia now is about 3 million. There is about another million in the diaspora. They are intelligent and good fighters. Just give them a chance and means to defend themselves and in the long term, be strong like Prussia. But I don’t think they could ever endanger Russia like Prussia did since the Armenian population is no where near the German population of divided Germany, of which Brandenburg was but one of many German states of the time. There is therefore no bigger Armenian population for Armenia to unite and threaten its neighbors once it became strong like Prussia.
Russia should enable Armenia to defend itself both now and in the future.
Armenia now
As for sending arms and advisers/trainers, airlift them via Iran.
And what everyone so we have that once experienced and committed Armenian forces are written down by attrition, there will be anyone willing to fight? They aren’t fighting for their hearth and home like the Novorossiya armies. Even the Pashinyan regime claims that Nagorno Karabakh is Azeri territory.
Also, there is no time to do any of that. The Armenian lines are collapsing.
I don’t think the Armenians will be “written down” by attrition. We have the modern case of Israel which is like a modern day Prussia, trained and equipped to fight effectively.
The Armenians have already shown that thy can fight by achieving victories in two wars with the Azeris. But they did not go for a decisve victory.
The Azeris is reliant on their larger population and (dodgy) support from Turkey. But numbers alone cannot decide the outcome of war – Sun Tzu.
What Armenia should do is to go for a decisive victory and force Azerbaijian to grant independence to Nagorno Karabakh. A decisive victory, destruction of the Azeri armed forces including those of its allies and with the seizure of the Azeri capital like what Prussia did to France in 1871, or to a lesser extent what China did to India in 1962, will traumatise the Azeris such that it will ensure peace for at least 50 years. With such a capture of the Azeri capital, Armenia can dictate a just peace.
I don’t think the Armenian lines are “collapsing”. How do a battle line collapse in a mountainous region, especially a battle ‘line’ with commanding heights in the hand of the defenders? Fast and hard striking forces are the key for the Nagorno Karabakh Armenians who command the heights. Think what China did in South Eastern Tibet in 1962 when they had the commanding heights against India.
Sure Nagorna Karabakh does not belong to Armenia and officially and legally ‘belong’ to Azerbaijian. But the bottom line is that Nagorno Karabakh ultimately ‘belongs’ to its inhabitants.
Now the majority in Nagorno Karabakh are Armenians and they want independence since they feared being ethnic cleansed by Azerbaijian if they took over. That was the original reasons why they fought and those are still the reasons why they are now fighting.
I believe a war, any war, always has a rational basis ie. it serves a political aim. The N-K conflict is no different.
Turkey appears to play a significant role — at least in the public eye — in this particular iteration of the long-festering conflict so it’s pertinent to ask what exactly it wants to get out of it.
Erdogan, I believe, is trying to achieve a few things: one is to get on the front foot after setbacks in Libya and Syria; another is to cement Turkey’s role as leader in the Turkic world and the wider Muslim world. Both have to do with his vision of Neo-Ottoman Turkey. In the process he has of course stepped on a few toes and made himself thoroughly disliked in a number of capitals; nonetheless he thinks it’s worth it.
Having said that, the unseen role of Israel — I’m not simply bashing Israel here — also has to be considered. Indeed a talking-head on French TV has described it as a troika of Azerbaijan, Turkey and Israel vs Armenia, with the Jewish state supporting Shi’i Azerbaijan to the hilt.
The reports of Turkey — or perhaps Israel — relocating jihadists from Syria is significant if true (I’ve not found third party reports) but if true, then Erdogan has truly dug himself into a deep hole. He knows Russia will not stand for that — they’ve discussed this with RF since Chechnya war days — and in reply RF will simply boost support for the PKK/YPG, giving him a gigantic headache on home turf.
Same calculation goes with Turkish military attacking Armenia directly. Russia will find it hard not to come to Armenia’s aid. Erdogan, on the other hand has no guarantee his so-called Nato allies will come to his. And if they did, he’ll be back to square one, as he was before, a right, proper vassal of the Empire; and with it his vision of a neo-Ottoman Turkey will literally vanish in smoke.
I am not disputing the claims that Israel is on the side of Azeris, but i like to know what is in it for Israel? Can someone explain that to me? Is it just to make arms sales money?
https://sputniknews.com/world/202010151080780706-president-aliyev-azerbaijan-will-never-accept-nagorno-karabakhs-independence/
So Sputnik ran parallel interviews with both sides, giving them identical questions and time to answer. This is what I call impartial journalism by the way, huge respect and kudos to the personnel at Sputnik!
At this moment it is the Azerbajani side which sounds like the voice of reason to me to be honest. Without Turkish and Israeli involvement in this conflict I would be completely on their side.
14 OCT, 19:04 Putin, Erdogan call for activation of political process on Nagorno-Karabakh Vladimir Putin has also expressed serious concern over the participation of Middle Eastern militants in the hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh © Mikhail Klimentiev/Russia’s presidential press service/TASS MOSCOW, October 14. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish colleague Recep Tayyip Erdogan have discussed the situation around the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict during a phone call on Wednesday, the Kremlin press service informed on the outcomes of the talks between both countries’ leaders. “Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan have called for activation of political process, namely based on the progress reached within the OSCE Minsk Group,” the Kremlin informed. Both sides have reaffirmed the importance of a humanitarian ceasefire reached on October 10 in Moscow. Vladimir Putin has also expressed serious concern over the participation of Middle Eastern militants in the hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh. “They have stressed a pressing need for solidary efforts with the aim to put an end to bloodshed as soon as possible and to move towards peaceful regulation of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. They have expressed hope that Turkey, as a member of the OSCE Minsk Group, will make a constructive contribution to conflict de-escalation,” the message informs.
I still have no idea why OSCE has no methods of sanctions or means to expell Turkey or any other means of punishment for seemingly”initiating” this action and sponsoring Azer…..exposing its uselessness and toothlessness…..and Erdo has brazenly taken full advantage of this. Another organisation to be added to the list that Lavrov should consider?
Where does Iran fit into the picture?
They share a border, seems a good place for them to expand their regional influence…
Armenian branch of Hezbollah maybe?
Exactly my question. Surely they must be worried about sunni mercenaries next to their North frontier?
Israel using AZ bases to bomb them, NATO further colonizing AZ and/or Armenia, turkic ‘Stans getting involved,…
It is Armenia that is attacking civilians far from the war zone. It is getting the worst of it by far on the battlefield and is now trying to draw Russia into the conflict to save its occupation in Karabakh. There is no evidence Azerbaijan has attacked anything on Armenian territory – it would be foolish to do so. Azerbaijan has a perfect right to defend its civilians and fight on its own territory. It is 100 per cent in the right under international law. Turkey is not involved in the conflict and is only doing the necessary in supporting Azerbaijan in a moral way.
I generally support the Saker’s analysis and am a Christian. But I believe the anti-Turk agenda is coloring judgement here. I support a Russian/Iranian/Turkish accommodation to keep the West out of the region and stability.
Azerbaijan bought $123 million in defense and aviation equipment from Turkey in the first nine months of 2020. … $36 million in August and $77.1 million in September”
“There is no evidence Azerbaijan has attacked anything on Armenian territory – it would be foolish to do so”
Saker specifically talks about a drone attack on Armenian soil…so you’re saying this didn’t happen?
“Turkey is not involved in the conflict and is only doing the necessary in supporting Azerbaijan in a moral way.”
Turkey is supplying military equipment (along with Israel) to Azerbaijan and has transported thousands of jihadi mercenaries to the conflict zone. Their corpses are now being picked off the battlefield as apparently they are in the front line attack of the contact zone.
https://mobile.twitter.com/MuradGazdiev/status/1316073390797729804
I agree that we do not need to emit judgement against this side or the other but at least we should try to keep the facts straight..
The US/NATO system has decided, on its highest levels, to only start a war with Iran after Armenia has been neutralized. Scenario
1. Azerbaijan and Turkey conquer Nagorno-Karabagh, distract Russia and weaken Iran. (This is a militarily impossible goal because Nagorno-Karbagh is a natural fortress. The US/NATO idiots are the same people who insist on trying to impose their hegemony over mountainous Afghanistan)
2. Armenian is a modern nation with a cosmopolitan diaspora that has influence from Melbourne to Hamburg. The decision by the US/NATO technocracy to allow Turkey/Azerbaijan to destroy the Armenian presence in Nagorno Karbagh is yet another fool’s errand. The global Armenian diaspora would react exactly as the global Jewish community did during the ’48 war and the ’67 war.
There is one difference, the Armenians have never received any appeasement for the events in 1915 that they, wrongly or rightly, believe was a Holocaust.
3. The UAE and Egypt are engaged in a proxy war with Turkey in Libya to contain Turkish neo-imperialism. They are keenly interested in the Nagorno-Karbagh Armenians’ victories against Turkey, Azerbaijan, Israel’s arms, and the US/British “Media.”
4. The Czars original promise to Armenian Christians was to guarantee their safety in the Ottoman Empire. This was the original Armenian Question. The Question was answered when the USSR guaranteed the survival of the Armenians. This was a cornerstone of the long-term Armenian-Russian friendship. PM Pashinyan’s pro-Persian pro-Western politics was the only chess move that Armenian had when Russian decided to give the S-400 to Turkey. This is not an abandonment of the Armenian-Russian alliance but an effort to find other friends in a very, very bad neighborhood. Now the Armenian have learned that the West is not reliable because the West is willing to risk a the lives of the 150,000 Armenians in Nagorno-Karabagh in order to set the conditions for the US/Israeli war with Iran.
5. Biden is likely to win the US election, and the US/Israel war with Iran that has been planned since the early 2000s will need a new causus belli. Russia, China and Iran must get their collective heads out of the sand to work in coordination to prevent this Israeli/US war against Iran, a grand calamity if there ever was one.
Regarding point 5, i think the Chinese leadership is busy deciding whether to liberate Taiwan instead… something they have postponed for far too long.
Behind all the lies and rationalizations of Turkey, America, or NATO are the true drivers of this conflict: NATO’s “Drang Nach Ost” and American/Turkish/NATO control over energy transport corridors:
NATO, Energy Geopolitics and Conflict in Caucasus
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/10/14/nato-energy-geopolitics-and-conflict-in-caucasus/
Look man, my ego would really like to ‘pop off’ right about now, but my ‘higher self’ has more important shit in mind.
The Turkish aggression and expansion must not only be checked, but stopped. The use of ‘radical militants’, i.e. terrorists/black market mercenaries, must in no way whatsoever be allowed to spread, to anywhere, at any time, whatsoever. The Turkish connection to underworld and organized crime networks is just about the worst kept secret in human history, but that is only an aside. The fact is that this aspect of the inhuman and, frankly, evil entity’s attempt to break out must not only be contained but must effectively be ’caused to no longer be a threat to life on this planet’.
If we are to live, and be free, in our own world, this is now necessary.
Nagorno Karabagh/Artsakh doesn’t belong to Azerbaijan.
Artsakh was an Armenian land from since 4000 years ago and had an overwhelmingly Armenian population before and after Azerbaijan was created only a century ago. Eighty-five percent of Artsakh’s population was still Armenian when Armenians seceded from nominal Azeri rule in 1988, despite decades of oppression and attempted genocide by the Azeris.
The Armenians chose independence from the Azeris bent on exterminating them. The principle of self-determination is universally recognized as is the right to life. Azeri civilians backed and led by their government officials raped and tortured to death hundreds of Armenians in the Azeri cities of Baku and Sumgait between 1988-1990 whence thousands of Armenians living in Azerbaijan were ethnically cleansed.
Artsakh’s nominal administration only, was “gifted” to the Azeris by the perfidious dictator Stalin as a bribe to the Azeris and the Turks with whom he wanted to establish closer relations.
Azerbaijan, in the position of an independent sovereign state, never wholly outright owned Artsakh which was an autonomous enclave inside the USSR of which Azerbaijan itself was only a part of to begin with, and not an independent sovereign state on its own.
In addition, and as mentioned by Gary Kasparov himself, Soviet law in 1990 granted autonomous oblasts/regions the right to vote for independence upon dissolution of the USSR:
“The law of the Soviet Union, which was adopted in 1990, provided for a fairly clear rule for the secession of the union republic, and it was clearly stated that the autonomous republics and national groups of compact residence should vote separately. And in the event of this disintegration, they have the right to their own self-determination. This is a very important point that many people ignore now. Therefore, the question of Azerbaijan’s sovereignty is dubious,” Kasparov observed.
Lastly there is the United Nations General Assembly Resolution 1514 (XV) of 14 December 1960:
Convinced that all peoples have an inalienable right to complete freedom, the exercise of their sovereignty and the integrity of their national territory,
…to this end Declares that:…
2. All peoples have the right to self-determination; by virtue of that right they freely determine their political status and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural development…
4. All armed action or repressive measures of all kinds directed against dependent peoples shall cease in order to enable them to exercise peacefully and freely their right to complete independence, and the integrity of their national territory shall be respected.
5. Immediate steps shall be taken, in Trust and Non-Self-Governing Territories or all other territories which have not yet attained independence, to transfer all powers to the peoples of those territories, without any conditions or reservations, in accordance with their freely expressed will and desire, without any distinction as to race, creed or colour, in order to enable them to enjoy complete independence and freedom.
The UN is contradicting itself by demanding that Armenians vacate their own lands or accept to be genocided again by the Turks.
Makarios, my sympathy is with Armenians. But if international law truly gave “right to self determination” then all bets would be off. There are thousands and thousands of situations across the world where certain ethnic/religious groups, endowed with certain autonomy or not, strive to secede from community they are currently part of. Do they all have that right? We would have thousand independent states now, if they did. General Assembly Resolutions are not even legal, they are political instruments.
“…General Assembly Resolutions are not even legal, they are political instruments.”
Igor,
I believe it is based on some of these UN resolutions that Turks and Azeris are making their claim to Artsakh?
In any case, no-one has the right to commit genocide on a peaceful population who are living on their own land without bothering anyone else.
The Turks and the Azeris not only were they not living in large numbers in Artsakh (only about 15 percent of the population), they do not need these mountainous area for economic purposes.
The Turks and the Azeris are lying about the main reason they attacked Artsakh and Armenia: they want to conquer and invade the southern part of Armenia using the pretext of the Artsakh war thereby realizing their dream of creating a land connection between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
inappropriate sentence removed … mod
Oh man, I am SO tired of that “argument”; Had Putin done this or that he would have been accused by the West of this and that. Had he sent all the military aid Yanukovich needed to crush the Kiev coup of Feb.. 2014, he would have been accused of being the new Stalin, blah, blah, blah. What are these people thinking….? the poor man hasn’t done ANYTHING and yet he has been accused by the presstitutes of the MSM and the corrupt politicians of the West of all possible sins…! Truth is, had he done what he should have done in Syria, Libya, Ukraine, his character assassination would have been exactly the same as it is now.
They will give Erdogan a win in this war. The war is a Turkish one, not Azeri. I don’t know how they’ll do it, but I think that’s what has to happen to make it stop. Erdogan will be declared winner in this war and he’ll get huge support from his population.
President Putin, you are losing the insidious “game” Erdogan & Merkel are playing against Russia: not a single drop of oil is channeled on the Southstream, neither will be on the Northstream. All those gigantic efforts have been spent for no avail. All Turkish moves are cooked up by the Zionist masters of the UK, the USA & France. The “free atom” Erdogan is the bait to entice Russia into hot war (they care less if Turkey is whipped out from the face of the earth). If Russia is not dismembered, as did its resources & three generations of communist production & wealth pillaged by the Judeo-Bolshevik nomenclature, there is no sign of a viable future for the West: Russia´s destruction is their salvation. Nothing changed since Napoleon.
@ hamparsoum agop torossian
I have been saying it for almost a decade and I repeat it now because I have been proven right in the end and all Putin fans proven wrong: The real Achilles’ heel of Russia lies not in the mettle or her people, not in the technological, economical or military fields but in a single thing: the undying yet unrequited love of her leader in the Kremlin for the (decomposing empires of the) West. And don’t get me started with the Tel Aviv gang. It is that weakness in their shield what has brought for the first time since WW2 hostile military forces only a few hundred miles from the Kremlin, without ANY cost…!. Undying love which was better proven by his abandonment of his natural ally in Kiev, Yanukovich and his free pass to NATO so the historical enemy of Russia could advance without ANY obstacle to that privileged position, a strategic stone’s throw from Moscow, only because he wanted to look good and be liked by the West during his Sochi self congratulatory show. More important to him was to look good for his adored West than to keep hostile forces as far as possible from his Kremlin offices…!
In June 1941, when the German steamroller was taking down division after division of the Red Army in its way to Moscow, Stalin has been reported to have cried out: “We have lost everything Lenin built…!” Maybe it is about time for mister Putin to start rehearsing that script.
While many here won’t agree with you I do
Putin allowed his enemy to bring his military around Russia and i mean really close
He allowed that the retarded West insults Russia to an extend that was never seen in history before
Ukraine Skripals Egypt plane MH17 Navalny to name only a few of a very long list
And the master in chief Putin just let them do to Russia whatever they think of without giving them a proper bill
Even Syria he can not finish correctly allowing Israel to bomb and the US to steal untill today
So where we are going from here?
Unfortunately i guess it will continue exactly like that
Putin probably has also his masters like Trump and they are from the same tribe
Bad times are ahead of All of us
Statements such as, , should be based on facts, even if one thinks that it does not add anything to this particular discussion. If anyone has any solid proof, please provide them, otherwise you are helping in the spread of misinformation. So far we have not seen atrocities committed by the Armenian side. Yes they are retaliating and defending themselves against Azeri aggression supported by Turkey, and there is enough evidence to demonstrate who has violated the ceasefire which was in place since 1994 by starting the agression. Secondly, international journalists are free to report from Nagorno Karabagh and Armenia, yet we all know how restricted the journalists are in Azerbaidjan. Furthermore, the Red Cross has visited Azeri prisoners of war and wounded in Karabagh, and there is absolutely no evidence of anyone being mistreated by the Armenian side. Making general, cliche claims, such as both sides are , in an attempt to appear does not help the discussion, nor the understanding of the situation.
Let’s not ignore the fact that this is technically a war by Turkey against Armenia to eliminate, what Erdoghan called “the last survivors of the sword (i.e. survivors of the 1915 genocide)”. Add to that his latest trip to Ukraine and declarations he made about Crimea, and the myth of friendly Azerbaijani relations with Russia doesn’t hold much water.
If Armenia loses this war, in a few years Russia will find itself sitting on a hot Turkish mess stretching from Istanbul to the Xinjiang.
Statements such as “both sides are committing atrocities”, should be based on facts, even if one thinks that it does not add anything to this particular discussion. If anyone has any solid proof, please provide them, otherwise you are helping in the spread of misinformation. So far we have not seen atrocities committed by the Armenian side. Yes they are retaliating and defending themselves against Azeri aggression supported by Turkey, and there is enough evidence to demonstrate who has violated the ceasefire which was in place since 1994 by starting the agression. Secondly, international journalists are free to report from Nagorno Karabagh and Armenia, yet we all know how restricted the journalists are in Azerbaidjan. Furthermore, the Red Cross has visited Azeri prisoners of war and wounded in Karabagh, and there is absolutely no evidence of anyone being mistreated by the Armenian side. Making general, cliche claims, blaming both sides in an attempt to appear objective, does not help the discussion, nor the understanding of the situation.
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Russia has shot down a number of Turkish drones that entered the airspace around Russia’s military base in Armenia.
https://eurasiantimes.com/russia-shot-down-a-total-of-nine-turkish-bayraktar-drones-near-its-armenia-military-base-russian-media-reports/
The extant Turkish Republic of 2020 is guilty of committing and perpetuating the Armenian Genocide!
So why are Armenians being so senseless?
Fact: Turks claim Armenians were deported from war zones for their own safety — NOT with the goal of killing them and committing genocide.
Fact: Turks today conceal (and reportedly destroy) Ottoman Turkish deeds records and archives to obstruct official confirmation of Armenian ownership and thwart the inheritors of the Armenians they “deported” to reclaim and return to their homes, lands and property;
Thereby;
Fact: The Turks are continuing to commit genocide on the Armenians by preventing them from returning to their homes even though WWI has been over for more than a century.
So why…
…aren’t Armenians suing the modern day Republic of Turkey for perpetrating the ongoing genocide *today*?
Aren’t the hapless Armenians being self-defeating instead of helping their cause?