By Chris Faure for the Saker Blog
China will not be conquered again, even if every last Chinese has to join the fight.
In the past four days, China has sent first 28, then 29 fighters and bombers near Taiwan. (Taiwan itself reports different numbers). Then, the US announced on Sunday that this is provocative. So, China called the statement irresponsible and sent a massive number of 59 fighters and bombers near Taiwan in a ‘take that!’ move.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1235639.shtml
But first, why would China militarily get involved in Taiwan, as it is their own territory under the 1992 Consensus for “one-China”? Taiwan is clearly China’s internal affair. What are their red lines?
- Taiwan declaring a flash independence (they cannot really because they are umbilically connected to the mainland)
- Internal turmoil inside Taiwan as we saw in Hong Kong
- Taiwan may make a non-legal military alliance with another country
- And any violation of the 1992 consensus.
None of these conditions are currently present, but we will need expert advice on the 1992 consensus. I do not know de jure how close Taiwan is to that red line. De facto the Taiwan announcement that they are preparing for war is completely provocative.
Currently China is not threatening, she is using her air force to deliver very strong warnings that the conditions are approaching red lines.
Lets look at Global Times. Bear in mind that the Global Times is not a bullhorn for Chinese people. It is for the dissemination of information to western people. That is its function. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1235638.shtml
The Take Aways are:
– Time to warn Taiwan secessionists and their fomenters: war is real:
“The secessionist forces on the island will never be allowed to secede Taiwan from China under whatever names or by whatever means, and, the island will not be allowed to act as an outpost of the US’ strategic containment against China. “
– “The strategic collusion between the US and Japan and the DPP authorities is becoming more audacious, and the situation across the Taiwan Straits has almost lost any room for maneuver teetering on the edge of a face-off, creating a sense of urgency that the war maybe triggered at any time.”
Sunday, further Global times writing appeared, by a GT voice, warning the EU (GT voice should indicate to us that this is unified among the Chinese people).
EU warned not to play with fire on Taiwan question. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235387.shtml
The Take Aways are:
– China will reconsider the European trade agreement.
“If the EU simply wants to develop normal economic and trade relations with the Taiwan island, its unusual emphasis on the latter’s role in its Indo-Pacific strategy should be viewed with suspicion. Some European politicians may think that playing the “Taiwan card” will draw more attention and could help pressure the mainland to make more concessions. But confusing the right and the wrong on China’s bottom line is a dead end.
The Chinese mainland’s position on the Taiwan question remains clear and resolute. All exchanges with the island must be handled in strict accordance with the one-China principle. They cannot exceed the scope of normal nonofficial cooperation and exchange.”
So, this is where we stand in this face-off and more analysis will follow.
I think China increased the number of fighter jets close to Taiwan to sent a message after the US government last statements which treated Taiwan like an allied country and not a part of China.
China can strike anything in Taiwan from its airspace like Russia can strike anything in ukraine or the black sea from its airspace. There is no need to send fighter jets that close to Taiwan to start something kinetic.
The US is using Taiwan to increase its anti China policy like the US used ukraine to increase its anti Russia policy. The Taiwanese should wake up because being as dumb as the Ukrainians is actually very bad.
Readers may or may not know the following facts. Oct 1 is China’s national day and a big celebration and holiday for billions. It has been the tradition of US military to probe and provoke China during their holiday seasons (e.g. Chinese New Year, mid-Autumn festival, etc).
Two US carrier groups are currently stationed east of Taiwan, performing all sort of military exercises and provocation. UK carrier is also with US groups. Japanese, Australian (plus may be some other nations) ships and/or planes are also involved. They tried to approach in mainland/Taiwan direction, especially at night. There were also unknown number of submarines. In addition, strategy bombers (B-52) were flew in from Guam.
China responded with 38 and 39 sorties on Oct 1 and 2 respectively, to intercept the US led forces. On Oct 3, there were 19, and Oct 4, a record breaking 52 (Different sources reported different numbers). None of these confrontations have to do with Taiwan. But Taiwanese hypocritically complain, against China. Ironically, they are quiet about the real provocateurs.
To add further hypocrisy, US States department also complains about China:
“The United States is very concerned by the People’s Republic of China’s provocative military activity near Taiwan, which is destabilizing, risks miscalculations, and undermines regional peace and stability. We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure and coercion against Taiwan.”
https://www.state.gov/increasing-peoples-republic-of-china-military-pressure-against-taiwan-undermines-regional-peace-and-stability/
xD HA ha I keep posting and then deleting… it mor fun to watch white-filtered ‘response’ or mor like reaction (or worse)… thanks d dan :)
ya the usual provocations… or mor like A.D.D (Attention Deficit Disorder)- I’m still here I am the greatest! at least they didnt ‘accidentally’ release another round of bioweapon right? not to say another round is Not In Place! for the white readers – GT, though is not fake news, but they are designed for white readers and often, out of ‘nationalistic pride’, may use a few more expressive words than need be ;) wink XinHua, the official state news media, has eng site too you know :) (but they do the reversed – they take out words that you dont need to know)
let me giv you another ‘data’ that you will Never hear from nobody!
back in Mao’s war, he wanted a million standing/marching army (and word is, history may show it, he has mor)
now in Xi’s war, what if I tell you, china now has 100M military-related persons? ya, USSA population is only 330M (just for comparison) 100M chinese boys/girls out of 1.4B is quite normal, wouldn’t you say so? wanna play?!
USA! USA! USA!
… homeland terrorist serial war criminals no more!
bwbs
p/s enjoy the air show, TW cabbage and your traitors!
btw the blackhawk your SamSugarDaddy sold you, for your escape, is the property of taiwan ppl, paid by taiwan tax-payer money. Its not your toy and you can be sure, you and your ancestral grave will be excavated from anywhere the dragon-ppl lives!
pp/s was going to address (b) from YL post… which will change the world map 4ever… some will rise other will sink but the water! water! will be (roughly) the same… but am too comfy in my 16hr long sleep… beauty(sleep) is 4ever! If I cannot die young, then I wanna Die Pretty :D
I would like to mention another fact here: Taiwan (and Japan) are islands, with densely populated zones and densely concentrated industrial zones. Which means that if China or Russia are ever attacked by, or from, these islands all they need to do is lob just a few well aimed missiles at a few critical nodes to create not only total chaos, but also cripple the WORLD high tech industry (this is also true for the ROK, by the way, were one specific facility can be easily destroyed and create total chaos worldwide.
Which means that those who in the Anglosphere think of their Japanese or Taiwanese “allies” as canon fodder are kidding themselves. Just 24 hours after any attack on the DPRK, the PRC or Russia the world economy will violently crash just from the sheer panic induced by such missile strikes.
As for the people living on Taiwan, the ROK or Japan, they will deal with such industrial pollution and chaos that warfighting will be the last thing on their minds.
And, if they don’t fully surrender at that point, both Russia and China can turn their small islands into wastelands.
By the way, the US force planners all know that. This was first taught to me by a *very* experienced US force planner in a class he called “why Japan cannot fight any war”. I am just adding the ROK and Taiwan to the list.
Finally, I think that most people in the region, at least in the ROK and Taiwan are aware of that. Not so sure about the Japanese whom I see as “broken” by WWII and the US occupation since.
What are the air defence capabilities of Japan the ROK and Taiwan?
Do they have long range cruise missiles to strike at important targets in China Russia and the DPRK?
Zero.
Yes, they do have air defenses, but at least Chinese and Russian missiles, they are useless.
Nobody in the West has decent air defenses (except Turkey, if you want to call it western).
Just look at the US and/or Israeli air defenses.
They are supposed to be the “best of the best” in the West….
and with the era of hypersonic weapons and (real) 5th generation multi-role fighters
The West never developed serious air defenses because it knew full well that all the western wars of imperialist aggression.
Even if the USN puts its best ships (their air defenses are decent) all around these Islands, the Chinese and/or Russian hypersonic missiles will sink them.
I know a bit about the Patriot missle system (32nd ADCOM 1/7) and I can tell you the effectiveness of this system has always been greatly exaggerated. These nice exaggerations probably made the fine folks at Raytheon a pile of cash though.
I would imagine that the USN would probably not venture its vulnerable ships too far past the 2nd island chain. Submarine warefare and bombardment of Chinese defenses plus C3 would probably be the opening move. Then the blockade that is practiced as per Talisman Sabre.
The problem of vast distance and logistics are a real issue for the US command. If China can take care of the big players in the 1st island chain and the vast supplies stored in Guam then the USN is in real trouble.
There also is the real possibility of India and Pakistan involvement in such a conflict with China. If China is subjected to a blockade might Iran make an effort to close the straights of hormuz? Might Russia take the opportunity in such circumstances to sort out Eastern Europe and make Western Europe an offer they can’t refuse? I guess the point I’m trying to make is that we shouldn’t get so short sighted and only think of what the Empire will do in one theater. There are consequences all over the world and such a conflict has the potential to see the dominos fall across the world. In such a scenario I can’t see where this would end well for the Empire. Much less for all of the life forms on this planet. War with China is madness IMHO.
Well, as the venerable Andrei Martyanov said in one of his posts – most of the americans weapn systems these days are designed for sale and making nice profits for the developers; russian weapon systems are designed to get the job done ;-)
Which in turn reflects the perceived likelihood of being attacked.
The US government understands that nobody is going to attack the USA without being attacked first.
The Chinese and the Russians (and even more the Iranians and Venezuelans) know that they will be attacked if Washington thinks it can win.
Therefore it is vital to make sure that it can’t – and it knows that.
isn’t this one way to keep the balance and peace and simmer?
Japan…”broken by WWII and the US occupation since”, as you say. But also made rich again by, first, the Korean War and, second, the Vietnam War. The psychological dependency of the Japanese on the USAmericans is pitiful.
I have a questions concerning the 1992 consensus mentioned in the article:
The CCP’s definition is that the PRC is the sole representative of the chinese people, both in mainland and on the islands, with RoC being a local government. On the other hand, the KMT defined it as RoC representing Taiwan, and PRC representing the mainland, with to different governments claiming the same country awaiting unification.
Now, I understand that CCP views taiwanese as descendants of an enemy, who was defeated in the 1949 civil war and who refused to surrender, but why this preference toward the CCP on this particular topic? The fact that taiwanese have the US backing doesn’t necessarily makes them the bad guys.
Even if the taiwanese declare independence – so what? What’s the big deal? If they want to go their way – let them. The russians let the other former soviet republics to go away, peacefully (more or less). And see them now – the russians are back as super power (even if they don’t want to claim that status); the former soviet republics, which became western lapgos were turned into shitholes (with Ukraine being the most “shining” example).
What do you think would happen if some of the countries of United States would want to secede from the whole State union (= USA) ? Do you think that this would go easy? Or even allowed to do ? To declare for example Texas on its own as independent from USA ? Or California ?
These are actually very good questions. It would be interesting how these scenarios are going to play out – given how the things are going recently in U.S. we may even see the answers in our life times. My bet is on the balkanization of U.S.
George, this definition: “The CCP’s definition is that the PRC is the sole representative of the chinese people, both in mainland and on the islands, with RoC being a local government. ”
is the one accepted in the UN and is international law.
Taiwan refuses to hold a proper referendum to start with, because many in Taiwan want to reunify. That fact is never discussed. There now is a reunification party, led by a good guy (or so I am led to believe).
There is more than one issue here.
Taiwan holds massive manufacturing of microchips, developed under the mainland who assisted.
And the issue is not just ‘let them go’, it is the attempts of the US to support the separatist forces, in order to regime change.
@George Kovachev,
The KMT and the mainland cohort that retreated to Taiwan after the civil war and their descendants make up only about 15% of the Taiwanese population and it must be noted that the KMT and their pan-blue supporters are the pro-unification faction in Taiwan and they have the implicit backing of the CCP.
Mainland China, and it is not just the CCP, wants to reunify with Taiwan for two reasons. First, it is a historical and emotional issue for Chinese people because Taiwan was carved out of China during its century of humiliation, and for this reason reunification is important in terms of restoring China’s territorial integrity and redressing a historical wrong. It is a means to achieve closure to a difficult and painful period.
Second, Taiwan’s geographical location is of great strategic value. If Taiwan were under China’s control, China would be able access the Western Pacific with ease. Conversely, if Taiwan were under the control of China’s enemy (e.g. the US), the enemy would be able to contain China behind the first island chain, as has been the case for decades.
You are confusing issues of “sovereignty” with issues of “governance”, which are two completely different things.
The 1992 consensus can not be clearer on the issue of “sovereignty” – there is but One China, and that One China includes both the mainland and the island of Taiwan.
The question you raise is that two different governments each claim to be the legitimate ruler of that One Country and, furthermore, each insists that the other government is a usurper of that legitimate rule.
As far as the CCP is concerned that’s not really a problem.
Why? Because this is an internal spat between the central government (i.e. them) and a rebel province that refuses to listen to reason (i.e. Taiwan).
Fine. If that is all it is then the CCP will wait it out until a negotiated deal is reached with that rebel province, because as far as they are concerned the identity of the One Government Left Standing is not in any doubt (i.e. them).
But the issue here – the thing that gets the CCP’s knickers in a twist – is the idea that Taipei might do something stupid at the behest of a foreign country (three guesses who).
At the minimum that foreign country might arm Taipei to the teeth and tell them not to negotiate at all over re-unification. That, obviously, is an unacceptable interference in a strictly internal dispute.
At the worst this foreign country might entice Taiwan to unilaterally declare independence. That – obviously – takes the very notion of a One China off the table, and as far as the mainland is concerned a restart of the 1949 civil war is inevitable.
So, with all that in mind, back to your question: “but why this preference toward the CCP on this particular topic”
The very simple answer: There is but One China, and the CCP is universally recognized as the sole legitimate representative of that One China (check out whose bum is on the seat in the UN to know that).
So if Taipei keeps to the existing status quo then the CCP will simply wait this out until Taipei comes to its senses.
But if Taipei attempts to permanently break away then – axiomatically – that is a gauntlet they are throwing on the table in front of the sole legitimate representative of the sovereign state of China.
And when there is a ding-dong dispute between A Sovereign and A Rebel Province then international law and international norms side with The Sovereign, they do not side with The Rebels.
And quite rightly too.
And the Ruhr in Germany seems to be also such a target.
Taiwan …island ..target energy and internet cables….airport control systems.. port management systems and only if necessary blockade by ships ..missiles. Wait.Perhaps no loss of life none if warnings are given . Simples?
?
All true. And I think it only need common sense to agree with this.
But the big problems is Taiwan Leaders/politicians/analysts/journalists/activists etc., did not, will not, and can not tell this fact.
And when once a while somebody mention this, they alway been label, capitulationism, licking China, China-Puppet, Taiwan betrayer.（投降主義, 舔共,中共同路人, 叛台，等等）
And they keep selling people Taiwan version Anglo propaganda:
1. US are the greatest military/economy power of the world. (Even after US Afghanistan debacle.)
2. Democracy is the great and universal value. And The west are wonder democratic countries.
3. We are democratic allies/mind-like partner (what ever that means), and those US-led west will save us, kick China’s ass.
Those lunatic even said Taiwan will WIN (and Taiwan people, not few, I guarantee you, actually buy this)
https://newtalk.tw/news/view/amp/2021-10-05/646233
“ 56架共機擾台創新高 吳釗燮回擊：民主、台灣終將勝利”
Translate by machine:
56 total aircraft disturbances hit a new high
Joseph Wu(Taiwan FM) fights back: Democracy, Taiwan will eventually win
This is how dangerous the situation is, FYI.
Does anybody has more information on the power outages in China?
This Global Times article
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202110/1235591.shtml
has the headline “Beijing’s rationing electricity not an approach for the whole of China to emulate”, while
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235530.shtml
has “S.China’s Guangdong to hike electricity prices for industrial users amid power shortage”.
Gas and coal seem to be short for whatever reasons worldwide?
I remember to have read at various places that China would not only no longer deliver coal to Africa, but would also stop its own use of that, due to “climate change”?
We have for example in GT the article
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202109/1235537.shtml
“China is ‘a country of action in promoting global climate governance,’ urges developed countries to face up to responsibilities”. The first paragraph here is
“In response to US climate envoy John Kerry saying that he expected China to make further decisions to reduce emissions in the next 10 years, calling it a “key decade” to curb global warming, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Thursday that China has always been a country of action in promoting global climate governance, and noted that addressing climate change also needs developed countries to face up to their responsibilities to show greater ambition and action.”
It seems that people (e.g. Hudson) always hoped that China would only pay lip service to that, but possibly that has changed?
Nothing credible that I’ve seen suggest that China takes the Western plot to achieve full spectrum dominance over all of humanity using the U.N. as cover under the guise of a so called “climate crisis” seriously at all. The climategate scandal involving East Angelica opened their eyes to the fraudulent narrative of that western power fraud.
China plays along because they can sell a huge amount of ‘stuff’ to the poor western idiots being scammed while diversifying the energy sector and reducing REAL pollution which is an enormously costly problem in China.
The blackouts/brownouts are a result of rationing of electricity by local area government administrators so China can meet agreed climate targets. It’s more than a suggestion, it’s a fact. They are attempting to transition from coal fired plants to alternative sources of energy. Not a lot to do with the climate change is a conspiracy but rather the understanding of the internal impacts pollution and shifts in the climate is having on the coastal infrastructure and economy of China. Long term and extensive roughts in the country are impacting on food production. Researching, developing, manufacturing or alternative power sources will bring economic benefits to the country that gets the ball rolling early.
There are geopolitical benefits to all of this of course, no single reason as to why it is being undertaken but the desire to manage climate change is definitely one of them.
I see the power outage in China as part of hybrid warfare to crush slowly zone A by spare part shortage. Several big factory in zone A are already temporarily closed because parts shortage.
If I was them I would pay special attention to items that the US is talking about removing tariffs on, and either add equivalent (or higher) export tariffs or put quotas and require US-style licenses for exports. Two can play at that very ugly game.
I have not experienced any power shortages, or brownouts. Nor has my relative. Nor has my friends. Nor has any of my client factories. And I live in Zhuhai, China.
I can confirm that China has put restrictions on factories that manufacture AMERICAN parts. And the percentage of their client load determines their access to energy and power. This is a fact.
I agree that it was a shot across the bow but the proximity to Taiwan has been overstated in western MSM. On Drudge, the headline was, ‘China flies over Taiwan’. If you look at this map
https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1444259257558323207/photo/2
I’d say that their air group was over 150 miles south of Taiwan. The U.S. is much more aggressive with naval ships and nuclear bombers around Russia and even China but we are caterwauling as if China landed on Taiwan and had a barbecue before leaving.
Yes. All the reports fail to mention that 50% of the Taiwan ADIZ covers mainland China.
When Aeroflot flies to Dulles, it enters the US ADIZ. Big deal.
The purpose of an ADIZ is simply to monitor civilian air corridors.
The MSM continually attempts to portray such flights as a transgression, but when the Chinese fly over Fujian Province or Zhejiang or Jiangxi, they are also in the Taiwan ADIZ.
There are 2× as many Chinese in the Taiwan ADIZ as there are Taiwanese.
Where are the fact checkers.
What if China stops her use of coal because she is moving full steam (pun intended) into nuclear energy?
What if China already has a viable small reactor technology, eg. the molten salt small scale reactor that she has already begun building?
What if China can foresee that she hardly need coal by the next decade?
What if China also escapes the petroleum choke point in the Malacca Straits by the next decade?
What if China succeeds at going green faster and better than the loud-mouthed West, gaining soft power brownie points along the way?
What if China turns into an inland power, escaping the dangerous oceans (US submarines) by the next decade?
Can China build nuclear reactors as fast as she builds cities, bridges, fast rail, EV cars, warships, fighter planes, satellites, space stations, etc?
“What if China stops her use of coal because she is moving full steam (pun intended) into nuclear energy?”
China consumes half the world’s coal production. Some of it is imported. It does not export to Africa as someone else mentioned.
Need I say more?
Alfred (Antalya) — “China consumes half the world’s coal production. Some of it is imported. It does not export to Africa as someone else mentioned. Need I say more?”
Alfred, you are looking at the status quo, not looking at things in 10-year time tranches like the Chinese people.
In 10 years’ time, China would have moved into nuclear power, drastically reducing the use of coal, and drastically reducing the use of petroleum and gas.
That translates into drastically reducing her exposure to the Malacca Straits choke point, which the much-vaunted USUKA move is aimed at.
Simultaneously, China is laying on multiple rail connections to Europe, who will need to go on buying Chinese stuff even if the US petulantly stops buying (for a little while).
At risk of sounding boring, I suggest again that you look at time in 10-year tranches, and not to just look at what existing trade statistics tell you today.
The Chinese molten-salt small reactor can be built fast, small (city-sized, not country-sized), and China has the money to build hundreds of them.
As well, if you have not read up about this new (breakthrough?) design, then you do not know what I am talking about.
And so, it is useful that you say no more, no?
What if China is leading the race for practical, affordable, safe, reliable fusion power?
Fusion power, if/when they get it working, will not be the boon everybody thinks.
It will not be cheap, even though the fuel, like solar, wind, & geothermal is free.
China has 5 different nuclear technologies under development. If any one of them hit it big I would bet it is the LFTR design. Thorium being way more plentiful than uranium. Once they perfect the design they role it out not only internally but as a “foreign aid/investment” for African countries.
China becomes the “OPEC of Electricity” and has a stream of revenue for a century from all the countries it exports the reactor to. No money down is very tempting for poor countries.
TRM, thanks for thinking like the Chinese leadership.
In the geopolitical game of Go, you look for huge longterm gains that outsize temporary losses.
And so, Chinese leadrs do not think like smallminded individuals who go, “nuclear is expensive / dangerous / does not work / ad infinitum.”
The Chinese leadership is One Gigantic Learning Machine, and their job is to solve problems to serve the Chinese people.
Example? China bought 4 complete highspeed rail systems, including copyrights from Germany & Japan, combined the best of each system into a new system, added “Chinese characteristics”, and now leads the world with their own high soeed rail.
But some people still go, “but, but, but, high soeed rail is expensive.”
The Western media coverage was ridiculous. Apparently Chinese aircraft entering Taiwan’s ADIZ was a hostile and suspicious act.
Has anyone noticed that Taiwan’s ADIZ extends several hundred kilometres into one of the most densely populated parts of China?
If Taiwan’s ADIZ had any legal or military significance, China would not be allowed to fly military aircraft across its own territory! However, ADIZs are arbitrary and virtually meaningless. Any nation can declare an ADIZ of any size wherever it likes.
Incidentally, just try to search online for detailed information about, e.g. the UK’s ADIZ. When I searched, all I came up was page after page of stories about the wicked Chinese.
Taiwan and the Fight for Democracy
A Force for Good in the Changing International Order-Tsai Ing-wen
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/taiwan/2021-10-05/taiwan-and-fight-democracy%3Famp
https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202110050202.aspx
I leave this monograph of Tsai Ing-wen(President of Taiwan) here, and said she won 8,170,000（57.1%） to let you know how many Taiwan people think like this. (No matter good or bad, IMO, it will take us into abyss.
Time is on China’s side. She should not get baited into a premature conflict with a waning hyperpower. The island of Taiwan isn’t about to sail off anywhere in the next half century.
While I deplore the behaviour of the United States and its allies since WWII pretty much everywhere, including its support for Taiwan as representing China on the UN Security Council in the early days, I do believe that whether Taiwan is, or perhaps I should say, continues to be, a part of China is something that the people of Taiwan should decide and that if they really want it, it is up to the PRC to negotiate a peaceful settlement and let them go. Taiwan should be free to trade with the U.S. or any other country but trade in weapons and other military technology should be prohibited for the foreseeable future. China can provide for Taiwan’s defensive needs.
Wrote this comment and published it at MoA. Hope the html tags work.
The importance of the “Chinese Korean War epic” The Battle at Lake Changjin is duly noted by Tom Fowdy. The film’s trailer imbedded in the article differs little from Western war epics except for the roles being reversed–patriotic Chinese troops assembling then attacking US forces led by a smug General McArthur:
“Despite there being thousands of movies glorifying US exceptionalism and militarism, CNN predictably branded The Battle at Lake Changji a ‘propaganda movie’ – but that ultimately tells us little about why it’s been so successful, and why there is such an appetite for films like this in China….
“[T]his particular movie is proving popular for specific reasons, and it is true to say they are political: there is a rising wave of patriotism in view of China’s increasing tensions with the US. The film’s premise has never been more relevant.
“Whilst nationalistic movies have had huge success in China before – in particular the now notorious Wolf Warrior 2, which depicted a fictional rescue mission in Africa – the Korean War has long held a special status in contemporary Chinese history.
“Officially described as ‘The War to Resist American Aggression And Aid Korea’, China’s intervention in the conflict in 1950 is heralded as a historical turning point as it represents the moment where the country was no longer prepared to be militarily subjugated or bullied by the West. Instead it stood up to it, and held its own in the process, consolidating itself as a force to be reckoned with. [My Emphasis]
It would be folly to ignore observations like mine and Fowdy’s for what are very solid reasons:
“[The Korean War’s] legacy instils a sense of confidence that China has taken on the US before, held its own and can do so again.
“This sets the stage for its relevance today, with US-China tensions escalating, the Americans attempting to advance their military containment of China via AUKUS and sporadic aircraft carrier naval exercises, while things are heating up in the Taiwan Strait.
“As a result, the legacy of the Korean War has become something the Chinese people can connect with in a patriotic way, expressing their own sense of national confidence with a view to the challenges which lie ahead.
“And whilst a film is a film, its message and the legacy of that war should be taken seriously: that China is always prepared to fight for its own interests, press hard and endure sacrifices for doing so, whether in the past, present or future. This is how the Chinese people understand their own national obligation.
“The People’s Republic of China is built wholeheartedly on these recurring themes of humiliation and national revival, and in no circumstances will Beijing let the country be subjugated again. We will see this play out in the various flashpoints of the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and so on, and while conflict may not be inevitable, the message is abundantly clear: do not underestimate China.” [My Emphasis]
That message was again made clear by today’s Global Times editorial which depicts DPP leader Tsai Ing-wen as grasping for straws as she crys for help in an article published by Foreign Affairs:
“Tsai repeatedly used the word ‘democracy’ in the article, like a cultist regarding what she called ‘democracy’ as a talisman. However, everyone can see that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has hijacked Taiwan’s democracy and has turned it into an extreme ideology to confront the Chinese mainland … Taiwan’s practices of acting as a strategic outpost against China in exchange for US’ protection is the craziest gamble in the history of international politics….
“The further the DPP authorities go down the path in colluding with external forces, the closer they move to their tomb.
“There is no force in the world whose will to ‘defend Taiwan’ is stronger than China’s will to fight against secession and achieve reunification. To be precise, they are completely incomparable. China dares to have a life-and-death fight against any force that hinders our reunification, but no force dares or is willing to fight to the death against the world’s second largest economy, as well as a nuclear power, in order to prevent China’s reunification.” [My Emphasis]
And as China has said, any provocative move to bolster Taiwan’s defenses–Outlaw US Empire deploying troops stationed in Japan and/or South Korea to Taiwan, for example–will be met by immediate action by China’s PLA to occupy Taiwan and force reunification. And that’s where the movie’s importance comes to play as combat between PLA and Imperial Stormtroopers becomes quite possible–the Chinese knowing they won the first time while the Americans are again underestimating China’s resolve. Most importantly, Taiwanese are politically divided on reunification, with the mainland being on good terms with the KMT as it sees them as unification partners.
Ultimately, the Outlaw US Empire has much to lose and nothing to gain by further antagonizing China over Taiwan or the SCS or anything else. The GT editor remains too shy to boldly pronounce China’s being the world’s economic leader, but that fact is now true and will remain so for decades to come. The Outlaw US Empire’s debt ceiling crisis shows very well that it can’t afford any new conflicts and must disengage from those it remains involved with.
@Outlaw Historian,
It’s misleading to suggest that the Taiwanese are politically divided on reunification. The reality is that the overwhelming majority here support neither reunification nor the KMT. Furthermore, the minority that do support reunification and the KMT are old and will soon die out. If China is serious about reunification, it cannot rely on the support of the Taiwanese people, and the KMT is now frankly a lost cause. China has to, quite simply, force the issue by defeating the US in their geopolitical contest thereby depriving Taiwan of the external inference that has allowed it to maintain its current status as a renegade province.
As for the Meng incident, I’m glad she is finally free. As a canuck I was very embarrassed by the STUPID decision the government made to hold her.
If 2 bull elephants want to get it on and have a big fight you’d have to be start raving mad (or Justin Trudeau) to get in the middle.
About 1992 Consensus for “one-China” (92共識）
you can forget about it, (right now, of course. in the future, it may change, but right now I didn’t see any sign of this inTaiwan political environment)
Current Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-Wen and her party DPP never admit it, and keep defaming it and slandering it if they got any chance.
Now it’s almost political suicide to say you support it in Taiwan, if you want to be elected, especially elected as president.
Same as one country two systems (一國兩制）,it’s also ruin because of western propaganda of Hong Kong issue in 2019-2020.
This is the situation of Taiwan political environment right now.
FYI