Selections from Godfree Roberts’ extensive weekly newsletter: Here Comes China. You can get it here: https://www.herecomeschina.com/#subscribe
Further selections and editorial and geopolitical commentary by Amarynth.
If you do not know about the wandering elephants that are firing up imaginations, you cannot possibly be up on your reading on China.
The launch of the Huawei Harmony operating system is the first serious competition for Apple and Google in the world. Yet again China has done a spectacular segue since 2019, when Google pulled Huawei’s Android license, then came an Intel and Qualcomm ban, and finally the news that ARM had halted all business with Huawei as a result of a US executive order. The expectation was this would be a death blow to Huawei and in the technical circles, regular reports foretold of ‘doomed to fail’. Yet, as we’ve come to expect from technology China, with a spectacular segue, HMS will compete with Google and Apple, the HarmonyOS will roll out to 300 million devices this year, and six digital technology ecosystems will upgrade as a result of the new OS, and the modern problems that it solves.
The deeper benefit for China of course is that with this development, they have concurrently developed a mass of now experienced software designers, project leads, programmers, skilled in software development methodologies, with a much more mature skillset than before the inelegant and frankly uneducated calls in 2019 that this move will doom Huawei to fail.
What is China saying about the G7 meeting that has just completed? It is not flattering.
BEIJING, June 14 (Xinhua) — At their just-concluded gathering, an exclusive club of wealthy developed economies has once again shown to the whole world their so-called “common values” are no more than deeply-entrenched ideological prejudice and sense of arrogance.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-06/14/c_1310007114.htm
Big Finance
Yes, we’ve heard it all – China and its supposed debt trap and over-leverage and one after the other scare phrase. But even the very well-known publications with inserts of ‘investors are concerned’ and ‘corporate default fears’ have to report some of the numbers of China’s sovereign bonds.
Foreign holdings of Chinese government bonds reach $327.3 billion and reached $564.6 billion in Chinese stocks in April. Chinese 10-year bonds offer high yields (3.089%) than US Treasuries (1.576%); foreign ownership of Chinese bonds is expected to increase from 10% to 15% by 2024.
Three Gorges Renewables soars in China’s biggest IPO in 17 months
Shares of the company surged up to 3.82 yuan apiece in early trading, surpassing its IPO price of 2.65 yuan. The renewables unit of China Three Gorges Corp raised 22.7 billion yuan ($3.6 billion) in May, becoming the largest listing in 2021 so far in China. The parent company said proceeds from the listing would be used to invest in offshore wind power projects and replenish liquidity.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-three-gorges-renewables-group-015805708.html
Little Finance
In line with Beijing’s wish to bolster credit for micro and small enterprises, MSEs, loans reached $2.63 trillion in April, up 32.5%YoY. China’s 44 million MSEs and 95 million self-employed individuals are primary national job providers.
Trade Warnings
Despite European media blowing hot and cold, there is a concern about pure trade. The business environment and the political environment may tell a proverbial tale of Two Cities.
Europeans increasing China investments and move supply chains there. 60% of European companies plan to expand their China operations in 2021, up from 51% last year. 50% reported higher China profits, up from 38% last year.
EU companies warn Beijing-Brussels political tensions are hurting business. “An ‘alarming’ 41% of respondents believe business has become more political in the past year, adding that there is ‘growing concern’ over further tensions during 2021.”
Boeing CEO Dave Calhoun warned that a prolonged trade deadlock between the U.S. and China threatens the comeback of its 737 Max and, ultimately, his company’s longstanding role as a U.S. industrial champion.
More trade in a different world
Russia-China trade jumped 25% in 2021 to $50.65 billion. In May, Russia-China trade reached $10.5 billion. Exports of Chinese goods to Russia increased by 35.3% to $23 billion, while imports of Russian products surged 15.4%, to $28 billion. Read full article →
The first China-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC) industrial park, Rashakai SEZ, broke ground in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, on the Afghanistan border. It occupies 4 square kilometers, will be built in 3 stages, and host manufacturers in mechanical equipment, food processing, electronic appliances, and more. Read full article →
An 18,000 m2 international exposition center, scheduled for completion in 2022, is being built in the China-Belarus Industrial Park. With meeting spaces, a hotel, catering halls, and support for large meetings, it lets companies from around the world set up operations and enjoy tax benefits and free access to Russian and Kazakh markets under the Eurasian Economic Union free trade block. The park’s transport links east and west are a major lure for the German and Austrian companies that are key investors in it. Read full article →
Shein beat Amazon as the top shopping app, ahead of Nike, Zara, H&M, and Uniqlo in May. Last year, it sold $10 billion worth of apparel, nearly half of Inditex, Zara’s parent company. The Chinese app is a global force with over 22 million users shopping daily. Who is behind Shein? Read full article →
Long Read
RCEP’s Market is 2.5 Times Larger than that of the EU and USMCA
Op/ed by Chris Devonshire-Ellis
Understanding Asia’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership in the context of the United States and Europe
Are you aware of the implications?
The significance of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement has flown somewhat under the radar as concerns its impact upon future global and regional trade. Often referred to as a Free Trade Agreement – which it is – comparisons have tended not however to be made on a global scale, and especially with the United States or Europe. Yet in fact, RCEP is in many ways Asia’s equivalent of these blocs.
Although the world is divided up into various regional trade blocs, some are more effective than others. South Asia’s SAARC has long been rendered less effective than it ought to be by intra-bloc quarreling over product inclusions, South America’s Mercosur has similar issues, yet on the other hand has agreements with more Latin American countries than are full members. There are additional multi-lateral FTA between blocs themselves, such as the EAEU’s agricultural trade agreement with AfCFTA, and negotiation of deals with China and India. ASEAN exists between the ten nations of South-East Asia (identified here as part of the complete RCEP agreement) with the ASEAN bloc having agreements with India and other countries, and so on. Identifying where these agreements are and intersect would require a complicated map with hundreds of sections.
n this article however we concentrate on the largest by trade volume – and point out the global significance of RCEP by comparing it with the USMCA (NAFTA) and European Union free trade areas.
USMCA
The USMCA (previously known as NAFTA) includes Canada, the United States and Mexico. It originally entered into force in 1994. It has a population of 490 million, a GDP of US$24.8 trillion, with annual per capita income at US$50,700. GDP growth the past three years has averaged 2%.
EU
The EU began life through the Treaty of Rome in 1958, has a population of 448 million, a GDP of US$17.13 trillion and an annual per capita income at US$38,256. GDP growth the past three years has averaged 2.1%.
RCEP
RCEP was agreed in 2020, with ratification of members still underway. When completed, it will have a population of 2.6 billion, a GDP of US$26.58 trillion and an annual per capita income at US$17,059. GDP growth the past three years has averaged 6.5%.
As can be seen, while the USMCA, mainly through the wealth of the United States, has the wealthiest consumer population, closely followed by the EU. RCEP however has by far the lowest per capita GDP but displays a wider internal variety of income levels among its members – from a high of US$58,484 (Singapore) to a low of US$1,308 (Cambodia). However, GDP growth amongst the RCEP nations has been three times higher the past three years (factoring in Covid) than in either the USMCA or EU blocs. When this is combined with a total population that is 2.5 times larger than that of the EU and USMCA combined, it becomes obvious to see where the continuing future consumer growth and wealth development will be.
However, the emergence of RCEP also presents global trade and political challenges. While Washington dominates the USMCA, and Berlin to some extent the EU, the RCEP power base will be Beijing, although it will require diplomatic tact in a manner not always recently shown by Chinese diplomats – a point picked up by President Xi Jinping earlier this week when he called for expanding its circle of friends.
While the Western media automatically assumed those comments were directed at Washington and Brussels, they were more likely to have been with a more regional focus in mind – and to Tokyo and New Delhi in particular, neither of whom have particularly close relations with China. Yet Beijing needs them both onside to develop RCEP to its potential – Japan as a member state, while India contemplates inclusion. The door for India participation remains open, even though India dropped out of RCEP in 2019.
RCEP+
China though has plans to develop the Asian bloc – a kind of RCEP plus – still further. It has already signed a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union, which when tariff reductions are agreed will push the Asian bloc in a north-westerly direction and into Central Asia, while the Indian RCEP position remains negotiable. A new, more approachable Beijing could then oversee the development on an Asian region growing west and north to become a continental bloc during the first half of this century. In time, Asia will become a full Free Trade Area backed by a comprehensive protected digital currency with an international (and non-US controlled) financial structure. Whilst the nation states will still be sovereign, the economic development will be transnational and green.
Asia will then stand with two other global regions – North America’s USMCA and the European Union. But new Asia will be the geographically largest, wealthiest, and most innovative. At its core will be the Chinese domestic economy, by then the worlds largest. With a strong currency, partially backed by gold rather than US debt, it will suck in huge imports mainly from Asia but also North America and Europe. This new reality – described as a ‘specter’ in the West, is what US President Joe Biden is actively trying to prevent in his G7 meetings this weekend. In fact, it is a de facto G11, as India, South Korea, Australia, and South Africa are also attending.
As mentioned, RCEP is often thought of as a regional East Asian free trade agreement. In actuality, its rise will come to dominate Asian, and significantly impact upon North American, European, and other regional trade blocs, on a global basis. The question for businesses executives globally is: Are you prepared to take advantage of this – or wait until it arrives on your doorstep?
This is but a fraction of what I gleaned from the Here Comes China newsletter. If you want to learn about the Chinese world, aka Zone B as seen from China, get Godfree’s newsletter here: https://www.herecomeschina.com/#subscribe
And once you start seeing old-style Hitler humor done by an Indian comedian on the German reaction to China’s success in its space program, you know that the propaganda against China is now beginning to be seen for what it is. On a lighter note, Enjoy the humor!
Hitler learns about China’s Zhurong Mars rover’s success.
Awesome work dear!
Never knew elephants migrate that far away that long!
Also some new born panda news this wk in malaysia :)
But… This caught my full attention in China –
Hong Kong to test linking mainland’s digital yuan with local payments
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-06-09/Hong-Kong-to-test-linking-digital-yuan-with-local-payments-10WJRE05cTC/index.html
p/s see it as test trail w international markets (dated Jun 2021)
Why is China promoting the digital yuan?
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-05-28/Why-is-China-promoting-the-digital-yuan–10CYsg4rIJ2/index.html
p/s audio is broken so just read the subtitle – this explain what is ‘digital yuan’ from a chinese banker, thus authority from CCP china, not as what I thought or what the west has spewed (dated May 2021)
Major Chinese state-owned banks begin promoting digital yuan wallets
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-03-23/Major-Chinese-state-owned-banks-begin-promoting-digital-yuan-wallets-YRw0YNMRpe/index.html
p/s see it as china launching in interntal domestic market, through all the Biggest chinese banks – everyone is IN now (dated Mar 2021)
Notice the dates of news being released…
Notice the legal status of the digital yuan for the consumer – does it still meet the criteria of store of value?
Notice the commercial banks will be dead if the consumer transac direct w the china CB…
So? What if you can Buy-Direct from china’s e-everything-platform? (thanks to c19 or whatever) How long b4 you transac in digital yuan, since over 50% of stuff you buy is from china?! Imagine it becomes the chosen e-currency-digital yuan-platform for all multipolar world?! Add on to RCEP – Imagine!
China has been trying to e-everything, c19 ‘pandemic” super charged it and made everything international-linked! A grass root new money market system in progress maybe?
I can buy so much more local Jap and Kor stuff like never b4, with a click of the mouse!
Yummy adzuki bean green tea ice-cream!!!! Thousand year old salted eggs! Some freshly picked tea leaves from some secluded mountains.
As long as the (chinese/international) merchants accepts the digital yuan, its a click of the mouse from my end.
What if you can complete a University degree, from a country thousand miles away from your bedroom, and never left home?! Paid in world-wide accepted digital yuan backed by CCP’s china (and its rising military and russia’s partnership)?
This clingy gf wants all the blinks :D (read Andrei Martyanov’s Blog)
Digital Yuan is not as simple as the west colored it to be, obviously through their only colored-lense (white)…
Hmmmmm… the ambitions is more than meet the eyes ;)
somebody once said smth about the control of ‘money’???? Ha :D
Show me the king (is still alive) and I will show you the (new) money!
This was my WoKe moment this wk on china stuff :p
I mean the ice-cream, the food stuff, not the digital stuff!
be well be safe
Once there were millions of Asian elephants across China, all the way north to Beijing. Agricultural policy over thousands of years saw the population drindle to around 200 in a southern provence boarder area with Thailand etc.
“This landmark account of China’s environmental history, written by an internationally pre-eminent China specialist, “should stand for decades to come as a unique statement on motives, processes, perceptions and consequences of environmental change in China.” (Jennifer L. Mnookin, American Scientist)”
See “The Retreat of the Elephants: An Environmental History of China” (2006).
https://www.amazon.com.au/Retreat-Elephants-Environmental-History-China/dp/0300119933
Wonderful job! Many thanks.
When Einstein and Szilard discussed atomic power-reactor, they say, Einstein considered the idea to be “a hellofaway to boil water”…which is to say very complicated.
After watching China buy intact US steel mills in the 1970’s and paying Chinese wages in the US to do it, and obviously paying off (I know the construction business- nothing works without bribes) paying off powerful interests – after that the vast and complex method and direction of flow has been in agreement with the Sun –
Which everybody knows rises in the East.
Hellofaway to get there.
…….
Some people might want to study the battle of Salamis… (speaking of Taiwan – where some expect “Salamis 2.0”)
Empires generally need to be persuaded that their Time is Past…their elite juntas are delusionally bound in internal hysteresis and ask for therapy.
Xerxes was young, but he could tell a hawk from a handsaw… These people maybe don’t learn so fast…
https://barrystrauss.com/books/the-battle-of-salamis/
The launch of the Huawei Harmony operating system is the first serious competition for Apple and Google in the world.
You should read what happened to bada, tizen, sailfish OS and a plethora of other competitors of iOS and Android. Making an operating system isn’t a big achievement these days. In fact most of the countries who consider themselves to be major powers should have already made their own operating systems. It is a shame that the Russian government buys the sailfish OS (https://www.engadget.com/2016-11-29-russian-government-turns-to-the-ghost-of-nokias-mobile-os.html) and that the chinese are still forking open-sourced android and coming up with sloppy iterations when college programmers can come up with better versions. What is more alarming is that Russia and China do not have competitive local chipset design and semiconductor industries that can rival the western companies. Software backdoors can be taken care of, but what about the hardware backdoors?
not sure about that. just a matter of time china will dominate the semiconductor industry. chinese companies scouted many Taiwanese engineers and south korean samsung executives. notable is a former samsung executive who pretty much built samsung semiconductor.
Nope, Huawei designed one of the best mobile chips. But is only stopped by the “maga” sanctions that forbid all other companies to sell to any other Chinese chip companies that has ties with Huawei, including TSMC. Clearly the US is losing and resorting the usual anti competitive sanctions tricks. United Sanctionistan of America.
Huawei being forced to kill it’s kirin chipset because it’s manufacturing was stopped by TSMC under US pressure is exactly why I made the comment. China would have to rapidly grow in the chipset manufacturing department to catch up with the competition. And in case of PCs, there is no alternative to Intel and AMD in terms of performance.
“And in case of PCs, there is no alternative to Intel and AMD in terms of performance.”
Apple’s ARM (RISC) developments are outperforming the fastest Intel processors and will surpass AMD any day now. CISC is done. The Chinese are not far behind.
I meant competition between the west and Russia-China. Apple is an American company.
can you provide links of detailed proof to the following that you wrote,
>”her stooge inside India who were forcing INDIAN govt.to be very friendly to China and be distant to Russia; So much so that they forced rajiv Gandhi to accept Tibet as part of China in autumn 1988.”
>”There was a chairman of Ficci who was also owner of ranbaxy,(some sikh)……That sardar was also pushing for less military expenditure in india.You can check that in many papers and weekly journals of mid 80s about that.” (it would be better if Indians give me the links, because I dont know where and which Indian newspaper and magzine to look into)
>”During the 1971 War, China didn’t even move a truck despite US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s repeated requests to launch some kind of attack on India. The Chinese sat on the sidelines mutely watching India humiliate their client.”
I am interested in reading more about the above mentioned points of yours
British and americans creating Taliban Muslim terrorists
They did not create the taliban, the taliban morphed from an already existing resistance force which fought against the communists. This resistance force was supported by the CIA. But CIA was not alone, even Israel and China had sent military arms and monetary support to them. Additionally, Saudi Arabia contributed a nearly equal amount to the mujahideen as the USA. Since it’s inception, no one has supported taliban more than Pakistan. Freedom fighters to one are terrorists to another. Taliban has office in Doha, Qatar and is recognized by many muslim countries as a legitimate political force.
(source: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/who-responsible-taliban)
Removed. Stop trolling this site as you are banned. Mod.
The comment has been removed. Mod.
Much appreciated Mod!
Just to show how much misinformation the troll poured,
The recognition of tibet as being part of china came during the tenure of Atal Bihari Vajpayee, not during the reign of rajiv gandhi. (atal was a right wing prime minister and rajiv was a centrist, hence the troll’s hate against rajiv)
(Source: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india/tibet-is-part-of-chinese-territory-says-india/story-qoBXiQP0y8h8tQLqi7hXLP.html)
He mentioned in his comment that the USA pressured China to attack India during the 1971 indo-pak war. On the contrary, Indian newspaper reports that the USA offered military support to India in case China entered the war to augment Pak army.
(source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/US-promised-India-help-if-China-attacked-during-1971-Indo-Pak-war/articleshow/11099922.cms)
It is also clear from the prior missions that the CIA undertook along with India against China, that the USA would help India against China.
(One such mission: https://historyofyesterday.com/the-cia-lost-a-nuclear-spy-device-at-25-000-feet-554a01093bf)
The Indian army plans it’s military strategy based on a concept of a two front war, against China along the eastern borders and Pakistan along the western border. Their thinking goes that since China and Pakistan are staunch allies, a war against one will make the other enter into the battle arena. This concept has actually never been true (like he said himself, china didnt help pakistan in the two indo-pak wars). This is the basis for the troll’s claims.
As for his remarks about the ranbaxy and it’s president, the head of ranbaxy is a sikh. Some sikhs fought for an independent state called khalistan to be carved out of western India, as they claimed that they do not belong to the hindu fold, which is why the Indian right wing hates them. And this is reason for the troll’s vituperation against the sikh guy.
I wonder if the elephants shouldn’t have been driven back at the beginning – this happens in Africa too – elephants leave the parks – but are usually translocated back – I sure hope this ends well.
And how exactly has putin betrayed his allies? care to give some examples
Readers may not know what China does to help those elephants migrating. Local officials block and redirect traffic, educate and prepare residents, stop electricity along electric poles (in case the elephants knock the poles down and get electrocuted), setup 5G stations and camera monitors, help track the lone lost male elephant…
It is fun watching them from afar – but people sometimes forget elephants and humans could be dangers to each others.
They eat and drink. Unless the male is in musth or the female sees threats to the calves they are usually non-threatening. BUT they do like home brew alcohol and can smell it from a long way off. One of the main conflict and building damage causes in India is the subsistance farmer’s local brew distillery.
This herd has always roamed freely, even venturing into nearby Myanmar and Laos..
They also turn mean on occasion; killing a few agricultural workers every year near their home turf..
By roaming as far east as Yuxi, it has been suggested that this was their prediction of the series of earthquakes which soon followed around Yunnan Province..
The animal kingdom is hard-wired that way..
@eddie, if they have killed as you have alleged, then I think the authorities in those countries where the killing took place would have shot a few and forced them back into their designated habitat.
Give your link please for those killings of agricultural workers by the elephants.
If lies were inflationary, and time were interest, the talk of western inflation would be everywhere and the already agreed solution would be to raise rates.
So to now hear the talk, but to deny the solution , has some in the MSM wondering just which way to go, keep being paid to lie knowing the cliff of solution is quickly approaching? Or bailout and find another job, my guess is the former.
I didn’t even know it was possible to buy Chinese bonds. I’d be interested in finding out how to do that. I tried to find a way to buy Russian bonds but that ended up being impossible. If you live in the U.S. the only way I found to invest in these markets was in their stock markets using ETF’s ERUS (for Russia) and MCHI (for China).
Go through HK maybe?
One can also go to SG and open an international bank account in the branch and trade online from there… of course your US citizen status and gov checklist is another matter