By Nightvision for the Saker Blog
Today we start with the largest news. Ukraine continues escalating provocations in the asymmetrical/guerilla/insurgent direction as we’ve outlined in previous sitreps. Last time an oil depot was hit in the Belgorod district, it was reported that Russia moved a new S-400 system near the Kharkov border. So now Ukraine shifted its tactics further north out of range, and we see sabotage of various sorts occurring on the Russian border 250-300km NW of Kharkov.
Not only oil tanks hit in Bryansk (no evidence of air attack this time, possible on the ground sabotage), but various shelling of villages, and attempts to sabotage Russia’s rail systems, as explosives were found: https://i.postimg.cc/Y9qskhtC/FRPzb-S6-Vk-AAcy-U9.jpg
Also in the region it was said two new Bayraktar TB2’s were shotdown. Photos of one of them:
https://i.postimg.cc/9QCS1xs9/5420165349808126534.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/Dw6NNrKM/5420165349808126535.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/R00YxWSV/5420165349808126536.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/Jhd2rR03/5420165349808126537.jpg
A new Turkish cargo plane landed in Poland yesterday as well, likely carrying a fresh batch of TB2’s, so we expect to see more shotdown in the near future. Over 40 have already been shot down.
Now Ukraine is stirring something up in Transnistria. Multiple sabotage attacks have occurred, including one on a military installation, destroying two radio towers and damaging others.
https://www.rt.com/russia/554556-transnistria-president-terror-attacks-ukraine/
https://twitter.com/SilksworthPost/status/1518880598605017089
Transnistria now erecting barricades: https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1519045236617584640
There is a lot of talk and rumor now, like the following: “Now Transnistrian telegram accounts are claiming Ukrainian military massed on their border: “According to subscribers. On the border with Transnistria, a large concentration of Ukrainian troops was noticed, in particular tanks and other armored vehicles”
And much of this rumor could be dismissed if it weren’t for the suspicious attacks that now suddenly occur on Transnistrian land, and the following statements from a prominent Ukrainian journalist and as of last year ex-advisor to the head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, who reportedly said today:
“Ukraine has the legal right to demilitarize the military facilities of the Russian troops that threaten us,” the editor-in-chief of the odious publication Censor wrote on social networks. no, adviser to the head of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Yuriy Butusov.
He said that this would make it possible to capture Russian prisoners for exchange, “eliminate the threat of a breakthrough by Russian troops”, seize large arsenals of ammunition. Release two Ukrainian brigades that are stationed on the Ukrainian-Moldovan border
There is only one chance left to save Mariupol – a strike on Transnistria” – Advisor to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine.”
https://news.obozrevatel.com/vojna-v-ukraine/putin-vyibral-put-totalnoj-vojnyi-butusov-obyasnil-pochemu-nuzhen-udar-po-pridnestrovyu-i-kak-eto-spaset-mariupol.htm (autotranslate this article)
(Russia, by the way, has over 4000 AFU prisoners, 300 of them officers. More POWs were taken in Illych Steel Plant alone than all of RF and LPR/DPR prisoners in Ukrainian hands combined.)
So, not only is he floating this idea as a way to seize large arsenals of ammo as we’ve already outlined above, but as a final hail-mary shot to save Mariupol by seizing enough Russian prisoners that could be used as leverage in an exchange. Interestingly enough, this comment coincides with yesterday’s demands from Arestovych/Kiev, that:
1. there should be a negotiation with Russia done right at the walls of the Azovstal factory and
2. that Russian POWs should be exchanged for all the Azov militants and 36th Brigade marines currently trapped in the factory.
The problem with this demand is that Ukraine doesn’t have anywhere near the amount of POWs that would match the number of remaining militants in Azovstal. Ukraine “claims” to have around 500 total POWs for Russia/DPR/LPR, and this number is likely greatly inflated by double or more. Azovstal on the other hand has 2000+ trapped militants remaining by some reports. So apparently some in Kiev imagine the capture of Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria could equalize this trade and allow the exchange for the trapped Azovites.
“#Ukraine and #Romania plan joint aggression against #Transnistria (Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic) late April-early May. Romanian military disguised as Moldovan military are training in camps in Romania and arrive in #Moldova in large numbers. Details: https://t.me/ZradaXXII/1959”
There’s rumor that a ‘large number of Romanian soldiers and officers’ have been deployed to Moldova under Moldovan uniforms, including officers and commanders replaced by Romanian counterparts.
The objective appears to be a huge military storage site in Kolbasnaya, that people are hyperbolically saying has enough artillery shells to last a 10 year war. Ukraine is understandably foaming at the mouth to acquire this ammunition as they are in dire shortage of same. “Rumors” that an attack on Tiraspol is already being planned for late April to early May.
This is troubling due to the compounding nature of other reports about clandestine buildups from Poland and other countries.
This was a report from around the time of the Moskva hit:
“Two days ago: The NATO Secret Monitoring Service started working in Odessa and tracking the ships of the Russian Navy. This was reported by RIA Novosti with reference to a source in the Russian law enforcement agencies and his Ukrainian informant.
According to the interlocutor of the agency, the NATO monitoring group operates in one of the suburbs of Odessa. Service workers are equipped with equipment that allows determining the exact coordinates of any vessel in the Black Sea within a radius of 200 kilometers.
The main specialists are employees of the Romanian PMC Nordstarsupport Group.
The interlocutor also noted that the tasks of the group are to prevent the landing of Russian troops in the Odessa region and the issuance of the location of Russian ships for targeting Ukrainian anti-ship missiles “Neptune”.”
Russia then announced the investigation of at least two British SAS special ops groups in Lvov: https://www.rt.com/news/554380-ukraine-uk-sas-sabotage
And one report says that: “French sources report that servicemen of the 13th Parachute Dragoon Regiment, which is part of the Special Operations Forces, were deployed to Ukraine. The group includes instructors on the use of MILAN anti-tank systems and AT-4 grenade launchers”
As for Poland, we hear this rumor:
“❗️Poland is secretly preparing a “liberation campaign” against Ukraine. For this purpose, a set of measures is being carried out – the supply of weapons, equipment and mercenaries across the Polish-Ukrainian border. Several formations of the Polish Army – the 18th motorized rifle division and the 6th airborne brigade – are preparing for a “peacekeeping mission”
The Polish Army stepped up measures to the maximum extent possible to complete the units to wartime states. The recruitment of “volunteers” is carried out through the websites of the Ministry of Defense of Poland.”
Now, much of that is very speculative but they add up to a growing concert of evidence regarding western powers / NATO’s increasing involvement in Ukraine’s western flank. In fact some of these are from a few days ago and I held them back due to their speculative nature, but due to today’s concrete attacks on Transnistria, these things begin to look more and more real.
While some of this could revolve around an effort to free Azov militants, much of it is likely an escalation to thwart Russia’s coming destruction of the JFO grouping in Donbass. More and more reports pour from the Donbass of how badly it’s starting to look for Ukraine. Not only are there dozens of daily surrenders on every front, but huge losses in KIA each day and more and more from both groups are being identified as reservists sent from the far West, with little training.
Here’s one report
#UKRAINE—In preparation for #Russia|n offensive & due to severe lack of personnel & low morale among servicemen, #UA General Staff is preparing the following Territorial Defence Brigades for immediate transfer to #Donbass: —101st #Uzhgorod —102nd #IvanoFrankovsk —103rd #Rovno ½
These are lowly trained territorial defense showing up now on the eastern front. And judging by recent surrenders, they look it – many of them old and haggard. Last sitrep around 20 surrendered near Donetsk, today we have another batch of ~80 captured from Yampil on the northern front.
🇷🇺🏳In Yampol, Donbass, a group of 79 troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine chose life.
We are seeing more and more mass casualties and surrenders. This coincides with the show of Ukrainian desperation in the west. pic.twitter.com/5tHo693qz1
— Chebureki Vibes (@PelmeniPusha) April 26, 2022
Video: https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1519013593324437505
Alt link: https://www.bitchute.com/video/faCuHupYndeO/
And the KIAs coming from the new pushes are more numerous than ever. I’ve refrained in the past from posting too much of it but the recent uptick in Ukrainian/Western propaganda about how Ukraine is ‘winning’ requires me to offset it by showing the stark reality of what’s happening on the ground:
Warning graphic (18+). These are the types of massive losses the AFU is taking just in the past day or two alone:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/cvAGUfIjkYUr/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/lshhfsDeFKkF/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/MVlToI1D3Hnt/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/N6BpDFFW2Blt/
https://www.bitchute.com/video/j5UNcl5jU5yA/
#Ukrainian paratroopers of the 25th Airmobile Brigade were destroyed at Novotroitsky area #Donbass pic.twitter.com/ZpsehVPYC8
— Middle East Update (@islamicworldupd) April 26, 2022
And for those that keep talking about phantom AFU campaigns in Kherson. Here’s what really happened in Kherson yesterday, Russia stormed AFU positions in Oleksandrivka with huge AFU losses. Complete destruction of their positions:
(18+) https://www.bitchute.com/video/XyhbW1JQ8ORM/
I don’t think we’ll be seeing any ‘offensive’ from them anytime soon.
Russia launched massive attacks on infrastructure last night as well, destroying many key rail lines and bridges.
https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1518939305296777218
https://twitter.com/Levi_godman/status/1518902869226934272
A map showing all the strategic rail crossings that were hit:
And another map: https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1518587585664274432
Russian MOD confirmations: https://twitter.com/Levi_godman/status/1518636779720564736
https://www.rt.com/russia/554519-russia-hits-supply-ukraine/
Western supply lines in Ukraine destroyed – Russia
It is believed that this is the final softening phase before a stronger offensive in Donbass begins. Western weapons will now have a much harder time getting to the frontline, particularly heavy weapons like tanks/artillery which are now said to be provided soon to Ukraine. These require railways to get to the frontline.
And on that topic of heavy arms to Ukraine, something important to note: many countries are now cobbling together a Frankenstein list of “high end” heavy arms to contribute. T-72’s and M-84’s from Poland and Slovenia, Marders, Leopards, and PzH2000’s from Germany, Cesar Howitzers from France, Mastiffs, Wolfhound, and Husky vehicles from UK, Archer artillery systems from Sweden, Humvees, M113 APC’s from U.S., and M777’s from Canada, and on and on and on.
For anyone versed in military matters, this is absolutely ridiculous. There is no way in hell the Ukraine will be able to utilize any of this stuff in any productive capacity for long. Firstly, the vast majority of it will never reach the frontlines and will be destroyed in transit. But just to play devil’s advocate, even if it were to actually reach the frontlines, any military analyst worth their salt knows that it’s a huge detriment to operate many non-interoperable systems on the frontlines due to the complete nightmare it creates in lack of parts and ability to properly maintain or repair this equipment.
In fact at the start of the SMO, Russia was heavily criticized by some military blogs because Russia uses so many different variants of each system concurrently, and this creates problems for maintenance and logistics – for instance T-72, T-72a, T-72b, T-72b3, T-72b3m, etc, etc. But of course Russia has the military infrastructure to deal with this, Ukraine doesn’t.
In a previous sitrep I already reported how Ukraine no longer even has an ability to repair its tanks and they have to be shipped out to Czech Republic who will now be handling the repair outsourcing because Russia has destroyed the AFU’s maintenance infrastructure. War is all about logistics, and to have this gigantic Frankenstein mess of dozens of different systems all utilizing different types of ammunition and parts that can’t be sourced adequately on the frontlines is a complete joke. It will never work and would quickly bog down into an intractable mess of quickly abandoned equipment.
In short, all this equipment is not much worry as the logistics problems it creates are simply insurmountable in the long run, even if it makes it to the frontlines in the first place. I would worry more about the supply of legacy soviet ammunition for the artillery systems Ukraine still operates.
There are signs of desperation from Ukrainian commanders in that regard:
“First Lt. Ivan Skuratovsky, serving in Ukraine’s 25th Airborne Brigade: “the situation is very bad, [Russians] simply destroy everything with artillery, shelling day and night.”
https://twitter.com/paulmcleary/status/1518547335516758017
“Grenade launchers are good, but against airstrikes and heavy artillery we won’t be able to hold out for long.” Ukrainian troops told me they need Western military aid, particularly drones & artillery, ASAP. They fear if they don’t get it they could end up like those in Mariupol.”
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1518644544828592128
-On the frontlines, Izyum continues to get reinforced by the 1st Tank Army and elements of the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army.
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1519018123348922368
Some advances have been noted. The west flank of Izyum is being secured:
https://twitter.com/GeromanAT/status/1518858233787604992
And since the mentioned prisoners were taken in Yampil, that town is likely to fall in the near future, opening up the way for Lyman.
Here’s a good map of the current: https://twitter.com/Denyo666/status/1519023312722137088/photo/1
Note that Zavody on the western end of Izyum is still disputed but RF is actively attacking it as we speak. And south of Kurul’ka (the salient south of Izyum), forward scout units of the RF are advancing on and have been attacking around Pashkove, which is only a few kilometers from an all-important railway that runs through Barvinkove. This railway has supplied Slavyansk from the west and whether Russia has hit its junctures with strikes or not, the goal here is clearly to advance south a few more kilometers and capture the railway and Barvinkove as well, cutting Slavyansk agglomeration off.
The only other thing of note is reports that Russian forces are now fighting at Gulyaipole which is a major stronghold town of the AFU on the west Donetsk line which Russia has been creeping towards for weeks. Once Gulyaipole and its eastern stronghold neighbor of Velyka Novosilka are captured, it creates an almost free pathway towards the main highway artery that supplies the Donetsk grouping from Zaporizhzhia.
As for Mariupol, there are more images of the Azov wounded:
https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1519001090863292422
DPR head also announced that Azovstal factory will not be rebuilt, while Azovmash and Illych factories to the north of it will be. This could be an ominous warning for Azov remnants as it would mean Russia would have no qualms in destroying the Azovstal completely. The only thing that appears to be stopping them is the apparent confirmation that Azov is in fact holding many civilians (they claim 1000) hostage in the basement, including many children, of which videos have now been released.
They are clearly using the civilians as their last bargaining chip and it’s a difficult situation for Russia to navigate as it does not want to create a massacre of women and children by bombing the positions nor be responsible for their starving by besieging the factory indefinitely. This is the chief reason that negotiations continue.
There were some reports that Azov doesn’t trust Kiev and in fact now wants to be released to a “3rd country”, which is reportedly Turkey. If true, this would make sense as there were reports weeks ago that Kiev in fact even launched Tochka missiles at Azov in Mariupol, showing a clear secret friction of some sort between the nationalist battalion and Ukrainian authorities.
https://tass.com/world/1416593
Here’s a current map of Mariupol, with a confirmed location of where the civilians are being held in the bomb shelter:
A few other random bits of news:
Governor Kim of Nikolayev has admitted to the creation of death squads to root out and kill “traitors” extra-judicially
https://www.rt.com/russia/554475-ukraine-governor-traitors-extrajudicial-executions/
This is further proof of what was done elsewhere in Ukraine, notably in Bucha where it’s now proven that the SBU hit squads liquidated ‘traitors’ on the heels of the Russian troop pullback.
Also, a commander of the DPR named Eduard Pelishenko, with the call sign “Crimea”, was said to be ‘seriously wounded’ near Donetsk by a “loitering munition”. This could potentially be the first sign of Switchblade-300 usage on the battlefield. Though he is expected to survive but it shows what we’ve discussed long ago, that the Switchblade-300 in particular will be used for covert assassinations of VIP targets.
Ukraine wants $2 billion per month from the Biden admin. https://www.rt.com/news/554520-ukraine-wants-2bn-dollars-month-from-us/
And lastly, Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, has stated what’s been on all of our minds:
Ukraine May Collapse Into Several Independent Countries, Russia’s Security Council Secretary Says
This appears to be the first such verbalized confirmation from the Kremlin side of the likely direction Ukraine is headed in.
So NATO is supplying weapons in numbers to kill Russian soldiers, I’m sure there are plenty of theatres where the natives don’t want western forces.
Is that why the Afghanistan war and the Yemen conflict was shut down in anticipation of war elsewhere?
It’s time to shut Germany off the gas and supply weapons to multicultural western countries stupid enough to allow fundamentalists in.
Right on! The fundamentalists are already there.
” Is that why the Afghanistan war and the Yemen conflict was shut down in anticipation of war elsewhere? ”
BINGO !
The US didnt leave Afghanistan in a disorganized mess, That was just theater for the masses and geo-political subterfuge. A deal was made, All the weapons left there were a gift to the Taliban, who now can make all its neighbors nervous. Pretty devious.
Awesome SitRep once again, NightVision! I really do look forward to your reports. The western rhetoric is just getting so ugly, especially the UK.
All the best!
“The western rhetoric is just getting so ugly, especially the UK.”
Boris seemed a little subdued in India.
Did my heart good.
Clawback/civil-forfeiture and prison for all plutocrats/plutocratic party-bosses!
Not to mention the simple bribe-takers (EU leadership).
The media rhetoric here in Japan has literally died in the last four days. Whereas last week it was segment after segment on the morning TV shows about Ukraine, crying women and children mostly, or immigrant Ukrainians telling their horror (again, only women and children) with serious voices and ominous tones and maps and diagrams, now there is barely a single headline. The storys have shifted back to local issues – a capsized tour boat with 20 something missIng mostly. But there are more road rage and petty crime stories than the words ロシア or パーチンon the news now.
Sugoi, arigatou bud.
spot on. All agents of the tax haven trust shadow empire. Political, media and judicial bribery everywhere.
I really look forward to these sitreps from Nightvision.
Since I don’t have a military background, my only question is why Russia doesn’t use more planes to bomb strategic targets? I understand that artillery is required to dislodge stubborn and dug in Ukrainian soldiers. However, it seems that Russia relies more on missiles than planes. Any reason why?
Not a military expert either, but as a 5 stars armchair general I can still try: Cost $$ (fuel, maintenance) vs low cost for guided artillery, risk to lose warplanes if they fly at low altitude, this is for the Donbass. For remote regions, risk to lose pilots, and it tends also to show that Russia has a huge inventory of Kalibers & others.
Well they are using more than you might think so it depends on how much you really expect them to do. For instance it was reported that they are supposedly doing upwards of 250 sorties a day which is a fairly big number. This means they’re doing way more aircraft strikes than Kaliber / cruise missile strikes. There are countless videos of Su-25 pairs and Su-34’s doing daily runs, and of course the ubiquitous Ka-52, Mi-28’s which are everywhere as well. Also Kh-101 missiles are being launched from Tu-95’s. Now if you’re talking about mass bombing runs as in carpet bombing with Tu-22’s and Tu-160’s etc that’s a different thing and they haven’t done that yet to my knowledge.
But there is a chance we might see that once a larger Donbass offensive begins, perhaps we’ll see larger bombing runs on the vast trench networks in the cauldron.
Missiles are usually more accurate. The Russians are trying to minimize collateral damage and unnecessary infrastructure damage. Plus, with planes, there’s always the danger they might get shot down, resulting in the death/capture of the crew.
My 2 cents?
Ukraine was setup as a trap for RF.
I think that the GSP was planning another Afghanistan with stinger missiles shooting down large numbers of RF aircraft.
(as well as atm to destroy large numbers of tanks)
But RF isn’t playing that game. Immobilize the puppets armies then crush them safely using indirect fire.
That’s probably partly it as well. Certainly Russia is flying way less than it can because of how saturated the region is with manpads, but it still puts up a good amount of sorties. In Syria they were doing 20 sorties a day with 40-50 at peak times. Here they have been doing 150-250 a day but keep in mind this sortie count likely counts rotary as well as fixed-wing and I assume drones as well
Russia is flying 2000 fix wing sorties a day. Ukraine 20.
Lack of guided munitions to use from aircraft?
In Syria they seemed to use a lot of dumb bombs guided by GPS which are not as accurate
With electronic jamming perhaps GPS systems are not reliable?
Still some anti air systems working deep in Ukraine territory.making deep penetration missions hazardous?
In the 1991 gulf War the coalition depleted their cold War stocks of smart munitions and cruise missiles in the 6 week air campaign
This has been going for 8 weeks and russia probably doesn’t have as many guided munitions as US did/ does
Another thing it seems their has been a strategy by western strategists complicate the capture of Odessa both by the moskva and landing ship sinking,perhaps by sabotage and now the Moldova business?
Trying to get Russia out of sync with its own battle plan?
SouthFront said today that an Su-34 was shot down near Kharkov by Ukraine but the 2 pilots were rescued by a russian search team. Which missile was used ?
this was yesterday or day before and all appearances so far is it was not shot down but had mechanical failure. This is because the plane had a strange “flat spin” that can happen if engines malfunction and there was zero smoke or damage of any kind visible on the footage. A day later Ukraine (today) released a completely fake doctored video where they spliced footage of inside one of their SAM missiles, showing the radar etc and then edited the plane falling into it. This footage is 100% fake. The Su-34 appears to simply have had a malfunction. Both pilots ejected and were rescued as there is footage confirmation that a Russian search and rescue helicopter was immediately dispatched to pick them up.
Starstreak & Stingers…. especially for planes in the air support role very dangerous weapons…. the only thing the Ukies still have plenty of. Only of tactical use – not interconnected – but hey: what a weapon (especially the StarStreak from the UK).
Most likely that is the answer to yr question.
Regards
None. It wasn’t shot down. It suffered from a mechanical failure (according to Russian statements).
If you look at the clip of the plane going down, you see no sign of damage or smoke or anything, but the engines are no longer running. That does support the Russian version of events.
The Ukrainians claim they shot it down with a Buk, but they were dumb enough to release a clip of their own which is supposed to show the Buk shooting down the Su-34, but it it very poorly put together and at no point does it actually show a missile being launched at the plane. It screams ‘fake’, which makes their entire claim unreliable (then again, when aren’t they?).
I agree with NightVisions assessment, the Video that was released by the Ukies was so faked, random footage not coherent what so ever to the actual event to fool the audience.
It is so obvious, that the claim of a ‘shoot-down’ is laughable, by the amateur editing of different scenes and making a ‘false’ claim. It’s remarkable that so many fall for the media propaganda so easily.
Looks like they have some BUK stuff and possibly S-300 tucked away in Kharkov. I haven’t seen footage of the alleged SU-34 shoot down, but I have seen an SU-27 or SU-30 (hard to tell from the video) shot down by BUK near Kharkov.
‘According to the interlocutor of the agency, the NATO monitoring group operates in one of the suburbs of Odessa. Service workers are equipped with equipment that allows determining the exact coordinates of any vessel in the Black Sea within a radius of 200 kilometers.’
This place, with staff, still exists….wtf?
Cheers M
@sean the leprechaun
Agree, that sounds like a* huge* liability. Maybe it has not been taken out due to its being a NATO asset? I am sure @NightVision or @ Lone Wolf would have a better answer.
I don’t think it being a NATO asset would save it – they obliterated Yavoriv training centre and by all accounts there were NATO instructors there. Maybe the Odessa place is in a building with civilian human shields?
@irf520
Good point.
Sometimes a target like that has to be destroyed by commandos on the ground,close up and personal,it also sends a message they really will not like.
But if captured intact or at least partially intact …. it could be a huge windfall of information.
A Chechen soldier gives a heartfelt account of recent battle with Azov Nazis who were using civilians as human shields and worse:
https://twitter.com/BeardedBrownMa1/status/1518906855401181184?s=20&t=q1OSvoosCm9Z9CjWS-QGug
ahh…. AzovNazis surely learned a lot from their IDF-Child killer bastard brother, very good at killing women-children and defenseless civilians. So it is pure joy knowing that Chechen sending em straight into hell. Also, those who died in this war, martyrdom is theirs. for Ukrops & AzovNazis, hell is their resting place
“Slava People in Zone B!”
Slava People in Zone A.
Who must necessarily be the most miseducated, lied-to, disenfranchised, robbed and oppressed from the first.
The West is disposing of surplus and outdated weapons. The modern weapons will be replaced. That’s the name of the game. The West is depleting it’s weapons stores and replacement will be expensive. The taxpayers will be stuck with the tab while the Oligarchs and Plutarchs profit.
Indeed…and here is a good US commentator on the scam>
Why are they hiding this about Ukraine? | Redacted with Natali and Clayton Morris – YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZpzPWnoHGk
“The Oligarchs and Plutarchs profit.”
The fundamental policy of the “Empire of Lies.”
Thanks, very informative.
I notice that situation with civilians in Azovstal is very unpleasant. It might force Russians to go “Idlib way” on Azovites; that is, they might be released and left to leave to place of their own choosing, all to save civilian lives. That would be a shame, as many Azov members would have to be tried for war crimes, or they would in any event probably spend at least few years in detention, probably helping to rebuild Donbass.
The other thing is Transnistria. Nightvision, do you have any opinion on vulnerability on Russian contingent there? Ukrainians talk about them as about sitting ducks, waiting to be captured and then used in various combinations. Is this small unit, lightly armed? What are we talking about, few thousand Russian soldiers? How can they be reinforced, rotated, supplied, if at all?
By air atm. Guess they can fix it by means of a big VDV drop..
There are people more knowledgeable than me on the matter speaking about this very thing right now. Here’s some of the numbers they’re working with:
“What troops protect the PMR?
At the moment, there are 2,500-3,000 Russian servicemen in the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR). These are the 82nd and 113th separate guards motorized rifle battalions, and the 540th separate control battalion.
The total strength of the PMR Armed Forces is 15,000 people. The PMR Armed Forces have 4 motorized rifle brigades located in the cities of Tiraspol, Bendery, Dubossary and Rybnitsa, of which one is guards (deployed in the city of Tiraspol). Four special forces battalions. Mob reserve up to 80 thousand people.
In addition, there is information that a detachment of helicopters is located there, as well as two battalions of military unit No. 13962 to protect one of the largest weapons and ammunition depots in Europe in Kolbasna.
100 tanks
Up to 200 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles
· 35,000 vehicles
Combat vehicles with ATGMs
BDRM
500 units of military engineering equipment
200 air defense systems
MLRS “Grad”
Artillery guns and mortars”
“Mobilization potential of #Transnistria|n army:
—7.5k active service
—15-20k active reservists
—80k deep reserve
In addition, Transnistria went through the conflict with #Moldova at the beginning of the 90s, most men are soldiers. It has universal conscription (1 year).”
” Although opening #PMR/#Transnistria front makes sense for #Ukraine from standpoint of opening up maneuvering, it is a very risky proposition. It bets on #Russia swooping in to defend PMR. But why would #RF? PMR is fully capable of stalling anything Ukraine, by itself, brings. 4/7
Which is why rumours of #Poland preparing an expeditionary force in #Romania cannot entirely be dismissed. Similarly, the rumours of Romania preparing to get involved to try to effect an anschluss of #Moldova and #PMR are also worrisome. #Transnistria would have a hard time. 5/7
Defending against the battered #Ukraine|ian forces is one thing—at this point, #PMR will definitely succeed in at least stalling them, and, more likely, in completely rebuffing or defeating them. Facing a dual front, with #Poland/#Romania/#Moldova coalition on one side, 6/7
& #Ukraine—on other side, is something #PMR/#Transnistria can withstand only for a very short time. Essentially, dragging #Russia into PMR conflict (and opening up room for maneuver for #Ukraine) must rely on dual strike on Transnistria. Which is why all this is important. 7/7 ”
Like they said above ^ it seems to me if those numbers are accurate that it’s a fairly good number, enough to defend and stall a sizable opponent for some time, particularly if it’s a Ukrainian attack they could hold out against them indefinitely. The only ones they wouldn’t be able to handle is some sort of mass Romanian/Moldovan joint attack or something to that extent.
And as others have said, Ukraine would risk alot by getting its precious forces tied up over there as Russia would be able to potentially snatch Nikolayev/Odessa from under their nose.
Thanks, analysis makes good sense. Polish- Romanian involvement would be astonishing move, as it would mean (under international law) attack on Moldova (TNR is not recognized). Or Moldova could formally invite these two countries to help her incorporate TNR again. Very risky move definitely, as it could set in motion similar chain of events like in Georgia/Abhazia/South Ossetia conundrum, ending in recognition by Russia of sovereign TNR.
It would be interesting to see the “Empire of Lies'” “spin” on two larger NATO-members attacking and overwhelming a smaller non-NATO neighbor.
Especially when that depot blows from inside or above the minute the bombing starts or borders are breached.
Let us hope no one tries to set that kind of evil precedent of storming at the cost of civilian lives.
If held up Azov are traded in prisoner exchanges, so be it. You save a 1000 civilians, that’s the best PR you can have. Russians just need to make sure this gets publicity in the West that they sacrificed so much of their goals to save civilians. Don’t let that one drop. We don’t know when and where this will end, but do not set the precedents of mass civilian casualties, because that itch will not go for a decade, like Iraq itch hasn’t left for two decades now.
If they are strip-searched and thoroughly registered, It might be the right thing to do. There are numerous ways to deal with them later. But don’t send them across the Black Sea- make it the Atlantic. Let their mentors deal with them.
Those holding civs hostage should be allowed to go, but only after their personal info is surrendered.
Promise is given of fair treatment.
Then they get picked up later one by one in police operations ala Mossad/Eichmann and are brought to trial in Moscow or some appropriate trial site in former UKR.
I admire (and appreciate!) the intelligence and restraint shown by Russia.
The US/UK/NATO are actively involved in military action in Ukraine from providing intel and weapons to troops on the ground. This makes them legitimate military targets, and not just in Ukraine. Russia would be well within its rights to take out the AWACs just for a start.
Restraint here is preventing or at least delaying WWIII, which the US seems hell-bent on starting. Ukraine attacking Moldovia and Russian territory are clear escalations, and Poland seems ready to burst a bladder holding back from open aggression.
As for Empire’s propaganda failing, most won’t notice or even care until it hits them personally.
@ Black Cloud on April 26, 2022 · at 7:03 pm EST/EDT
I admire (and appreciate!) the intelligence and restraint shown by Russia.
—————————————————————————————————-
Russia, thanks to The Most High, can afford it.
The US will not have hypersonic weapons until 2027. The gap Russia has created with advance weaponry, allows her to be deliberate in her unfolding strategy. In Ukraine, Russia is exerting Full Spectrum Dominance. Regardless of the Hail Mary thrown by the West, there is really nothing they can do for Ukraine, which has already been strategically defeated.
Russia is playing classic Sun Tzu to the tilt, “Every battle is won before it’s ever fought.”
They won the battle long ago, saw Ukraine’s intentions, and unleashed her blow before Ukraine delivered theirs.
Timing, in war, as in everything else, is everything.
Lone Wolf
Will U.S. even exist in 2027? Civil War must be only a few years away at most.
Civil War on/in which divide? Maybe some State pushing for autonomy and neutralised quickly. It’s a very fragmented country and so various groups of influence, BLM, Proud Boys, LGBTQ+, Harvey Wall Street Bangers, Keystone Kops, Latino, Sino, Irish & Scottish Sheep Shaggers, Hells Angels, KKK, Mexican/Columbian Drug Cartels, Demonic & Repugnants . . . . .
I predict Texas, Florida, and possibly other southern republics will secede sometime by 2030
Should you even do that, seeing as the Polish are still not coming across the Ukrainian border, as predicted?
Well I read a very informed article on ZeroHedge 3/4 years back that the US Government were stockpiling ammo. Apparently 300 bullets for every American. One Senator stated, we’ll never run out of bullets to kill Americans, I can promise you that. They still re-elected him though. That’s how dumb they are.
If you think Azov are bad watch when the US Government are dishing it out to their own. Dissent at home is verboten
You’d be surprised how many Americans have a safe full of semi-auto battle rifles, or scoped hunting rifles, and not only know how to use them, but have thousands upon thousands of rounds to feed them all, and will gladly arm their entire neighborhood when the time comes…
So come and take them.
You are correct. Lt. Col. (Ret) Allen West is someone to watch as Texas prepares to vote to consider succession. 2030? More likely 2024.
Texas is the only state to have their own electric grid. That might come in handy. Remember what Enron did to California.
…..Gambinos, Sopranos, Amish, Mormons, Nazi Lowriders, Cowboys, Redskins, Dead Rabbits, Jets, Sharks, Manson Family, Addams Family, Brady Bunch…
Mad Max 4…coming to a screen near you soon!
For many, that’s the reality they already live in. But they can’t do much about it, at the moment.
If- however the federal government fall – there’s a window to act, when you can make a real change.
This might be a good time to study what happened in the former Soviet-region. So you know what to look out for.
I think your infra-structure will become a huge problem, on most levels – and a source of strife if you dis-integrate.
The DHS comprehensively monitors all opposition to the plutocracy, with all Federal, State and local police welded into one for the purpose by “fusion centers,” a nationalist policy violating Federalism, and vigorously infiltrates; looks for and vigorously prosecutes for unrelated offenses; acts as agent provocateur; and no doubt where necessary provides “parallel histories” for purpose of prosecution.
See the Whitmer kidnapping-plot, although the fools in prison can have hardly represented serious opposition; maybe a show-trial was desired “pour encourager l’autres.”
Any local-government-controlling Mob can call on this machinery against any serious reformers, said system being “faith-based” (“based on trust,” like the Internet).
A nice little blockade of the Hormuz Strait will lead to the stock market crash on the Wall Street which would lead to massive demonstrations and ultimately a spectacular shooting civil war raging in all major cities in the USA.
John,
Indeed – the Regime in Washington will defend its system with utmost brutality. The slightest hint of insurrection will be met with overwhelming force.
Rather than peaceful negotitated breakup, I fear more of a horrific Spanish Civil War Style Situation
Yes, indeed. Fusion centers are what keep an eye on the masses.
Citizen snitches will turn you in, if you voice unpopular positions. They can and will monitor all your phones, follow you and harass you, send provocateurs to entrap you or instigate you.
Not according to the novel “Twilights last gleaming” by John Michael Greer. Although the plot had the US pitted against China using Tanzaniar as the proxy, the US ended up breaking in 2025. Prophetic?
The best, funniest and saddest post-US novel is surely Goulart’s _After Things Fell Apart_.
The Rand Corporation’s “suggestions” (2019) to weaken Russia, include a war in Transnistria.
If Poland or Romania attack Transnistria then they would leave themselves open to Russian missile attacks on their own military facilities. We are heading towards a wider conflict and Russia not reacting forcefully to such an attack will be seen as weakness and embolden NATO further.
Yes, Poland appears the main shit eater in the EU for the Satanic States and should be sent a severe reprimand. One more provocation and we’ll send in an airborne flotilla of Mr Kinzhals & Friends.
Poland and Romania are asking for it.
@Rafael
//Russia not reacting forcefully to such an attack will be seen as weakness and embolden NATO further.//
what makes you think that Russia won’t intervene in such a conflict?
Maybe There is a Western friend of Russia who would storm the area if Transnistria is breached.
I doubt Lukashenko would sit it out if Romania and Poland had a party near his back yard.
I hope this mess in Ukraine is resolved quickly and Ukrainian’s taking charge of the Spring Clean when given the opportunity. There are a lot insidious elements working in their country trying to prevent that but the worm will turn as they say.
Excellent article!
It seems that while this is not yet victory, it is the beginning of the phase in which victory is going to occur, slava Bogu. And afterwards the Ukraine can rebuild free of Western dominance.
Maybe stupid but i have a question. why many dead soldiers are without shoes ?
Boots wear out quickly on a battlefield, and are a valuable commodity for soldiers isolated from resupply. Boots in fair condition are unlikely to be left behind by retreating comrades.
yep you might be right i saw also one dead guy on sneakers. He might have been to late yo the free shopping. But why do they not take also the clothes. I see also some Ukraine captured soldiers in a half jogging outfit. Just asking.
Yeah they were out jogging and minding their own business when pulled over at a checkpoint. Poor saps!
@Hoop, there are a lot of Ukrainian dead and POW’s wearing running shoes which suggests logistics/supply problems. Running shoes do not hold up in the field and will be exchanged at the first opportunity for better gear. If you’ve ever tried hiking 25 km in soggy sneaker’s you’ll know what I mean.
Also remember, when you’re in really deep shit your weapons and kit were made by the lowest bidder, same with the uniform so disintegration in the field is possible – happened to me. Geneva convention states that a resisting force does not need military uniforms but to be identified as a legal resisting force hence party to the articles, they must have a recognized insignia. The green/blue/yellow armbands would meet that requirement but again, lack of consistent uniform suggests supply issues in the rear so decent condition kit will be picked up as available to cover supply chain shortcomings, and try to cover up that Royalle Blue windbreaker that irritates your mates because it draws unfriendly fire – not that any fire is really friendly.
Lastly, gear, it’s amazing how awful some kit is and the civilian gear is often better and warmer. Underneath any uniform (if you have one) is often civilian gear which is overlooked by the officers and NCO’s when in the field although never on the parade ground or an FTX. I still wear some of the old now-surplus heavy wool kit because of its warmth on training exercises.
@JackJC: “Also remember, when you’re in really deep shit your weapons and kit were made by the lowest bidder, same with the uniform so disintegration in the field is possible – happened to me.”
Sounds to me like you may have been in the U$ Army, because I read of GIs in Vietnam throwing away their Army Service rifle if they were lucky enough to pick up a Kalashnikov.
All soldiers exchange kit for something they think works better, human nature.
The M16 initial deployment was an unmitigated disaster. Rushed into production without proper corrosion resistance and changing powder types from extruded to ball type sealed it’s reputation against the AK. Even in much other later operations I know of soldiers who picked up an AK instead of western rifles.
AK accuracy “Good enough”, reliability unmatched.
Boots are everything. The right boots makes you are feel extremely comfortable and able. I was in the Civil Army, fire fighting m.m.
I remember the clothes and boots as well thought out in all practical manners. The daily uniform could be used summer (open) and winter (closed), it was fire resistent and easy to wear. Same with the boots, black long lasting leather to open in summer, and close in the winter.
Unless you are cannon fodder but want to win the game, its not worth it to save on gear and food.
It cost only a little exstra but has a huge influence.
It is amazing that Ukrainian soldiers still fight in spite of casualties.
What is keeping them from rebellion?
I think 3 chief reasons:
1. the propaganda from ukraine/west is super strong (and complete blackout of Russian side news) so these troops only hear the fake cheerleading every day that their side is “winning” and Russia is suffering 50,000 KIA and will soon collapse etc etc. So they honestly think they stand a chance, which is ludicrous.
2. many of them are on tons of drugs, not only meth labs have been already found but numerous times prisoners who were clearly on drugs were recorded like this and many others https://www.bitchute.com/video/whEVBKGN3iEN/ I mean hell their own president is on drugs https://www.bitchute.com/video/Y6CGIO0d8Tue/
3. Many AFU prisoners are reporting that anyone wanting to surrender is being shot by the hardline commanders. They are terrified of surrendering or deserting and there are NUMEROUS confirmed verifiable pieces of evidence showing that deserting/surrendering soldiers were shot in the back including the videos we’ve seen of Ukrainian soldier chained by his legs to a post, and others discovered in Volnovakha shot in the back of their head by their own commanders, same thing in Mariupol and many prisoner testimonies of this from their side.
4. Many of the conscripts have grandparents and parents and siblings and wives and children (a powerful influence on the Soviet show-trials).
Excellent sitrep!
It seems that Ukrainian losses are superior to German losses in Stalinrad cauldron.
My expectation is that we are weeks away from strikes upon NATO weapon convoys in NATO countries.
What is the likely move by Russia if Transnitria is attacked from two fronts ? Bypassing Nikolaiev ?
Serious question:
How much is my share of Gazprom worth?
OGZPY
In rubles, dollars or otherwise.
Shares of Gazprom ?
In 7-10 years a huge gain – possibly 15% CAGR Until then, you gotta sit tight. One can guess the dividends are piling up in a Russian Bank waiting until the war end.
I have no choice but to sit, tight, it’s locked up.
It was a hedge against US dollar collapse, & the fundamental fact that they have the Gaz.
If it’s WWIII none of it matters.
15% return on what starting value is the question. $2? $10? $50?
If those dividends pay Russian compound interest rates that would be just fine.
No one seriously cares.
If Russia allows Azovs to go to Turkey, they would soon be back to fight against Russians.
The Turks would not be happy about such move by Erdogan, they will be against it. They got problems already with Kurds and Gulen Militants, and while their Economy is sucks also.
re: “In short, all this equipment is not much worry”
It is, however, profitable for the arms manufacturers, which is why they will continue to try to pour them into Ukraine. They get paid whether the weapons are used or not.
The rot and corruption runs deep in the western military-industrial complex. It is matched only by the stupidity of the mass murdering monumental thieves who run the western governments.
The pronouncement today by Sec of State Blinken “that US weapons and supplies were now making their way to the Ukrainian fighters in 72 hours” (https://nypost.com/2022/04/26/blinken-state-dept-budget-will-cause-russian-strategic-failure/) is intended for U.S. domestic consumption and to force Congress to increase funding for the State Department. Clearly, it has no basis in reality, just as all of the previous rosy pronouncements in Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc., had no basis in reality. What these ghouls count on is the historical amnesia that is endemic in the U.S. and western world. Much of that amnesia is by design, as the “woke” ideology that permeates the education system seeks to either erase or rewrite history to its liking.
In my estimation, the U.S./NATO is fighting and winning a propaganda war while Russia is fighting and winning a real war.
The only people they’re convincing live/work within their sphere, with this number dwindling as the eviction rate and soup kitchens soar.
Thank you Nightvision for another brilliant update!
What’s your thinking on how RF can mitigate the coming danger in Transnistria? Does RF have enough reserve along Southern border/Crimea to quickly establish a land corridor between Kherson and Tisaprol? Can RF artillary/MRLs reach and attack Romanians and Poles in Moldova? Or are strategic bombers/standoff weapons able to flatten those P/R troops if RF chooses to ? How else can RF reinforce peace keeping force in Transnistria?
Transnistria has an interesting history. It actually has the largest area of wine caves in the world and has traditionally been involved in smuggling of contraband. That would inform me that the cave system is ideal for storing sufficient weapons to deter any attack from the West…
I agree the idea of many Nato countries sending many different heavy weapons to Lvov in the hope that they can get them to the East is crazy. Particularly if anyone thinks they are going to be firing at a full daily rate and thus requiring enormous trucking of shells. The eventual destruction of rail links was always going to happen once the Civilians were out.
So are Nato countries actually delivering all this stuff? Or is it just more talk to sound supportive when they know Ukraine has lost this. Probably just talk.
Zelensky is a f*****g animal. While he’s basking in the faux adulation of the West enjoying being a Dictator Despot and Tyrant he is solely presiding over the hige numbers of deaths in the AFU because he’s such a narcisst revelling in his own Glory and the belief he is the new Messiah (The West having fuelled these) that it is now obvious he doesn’t give a damn about the Ukraine its peoples and its future. Gos damit man give the Order to the UAF to surrender and prevent further bloodshed. Otherwise you Arestovich and the rest of ur corrupt posse get out there to the front line and lead your troops into anihilation. F*****g cowards. Other thing if you need all these billions of Euros for Ukraine sell ur USD$ 34mn Mansion in Florida and return the USD2bn you stole from the Ukraine and its peoples and that’s the same for all ur Cabinet’s stolen Ukrainian Financial assets. You are lower than any animal on this earth. You will face your Judgement and it will be a terrible one. You are not worthy of redemption.
Yep just look how arrogantly he’s enjoying his 15 minutes of fame while his country burns and thousands of his people die needlessly https://www.bitchute.com/video/4OCZ4XRXfAHs/
He’ll argue that the 9 years he spent on the fringe comedy circuit playing to small audiences, cutting his teeth as a relative unknown, that it was destiny he’d become Ukraine’s best known comedy actor, with the Presidency the next obvious progression.
He’s a Khazar and couldnt care less about Slavic lives. This should be obvious to everyone.
This 100%
The fact that most people don’t know about the khazars and who they are and what their history with Slavic people is, shows that the media is completely in their hands.
Zelensky is a khazar, and Slavs are their eternal enemy, considered nothing but cattle. Fit only to milk and slaughter.
Their end time propechies say that they will blot out the memory of “amalek”, and extirpate us all before their messiah (the antichrist) rules the world.
Zelensky is an unhinged subhuman drug addict twerp narcissist So theres lots of those creatures But in his position of power he has a Masada complex and that is a real danger to the whole world I hoped from the start of this Russian op part of it would be Zelenskys capture At this stage forget capture just kalibrate him as he so deserves
But Is there any evidence RF leadership calling for Zelensky’s removal by Ukie patriots? One would think he would have been offed by now… Further, IMO, to have such a dizzying effect on western nations to keep shipping weapons and cash, Zelensky may have damning evidence of WHAT’s been going on inside all those biolabs AND just how much millions-or even billions in cash was laundered full circle via Ukraine into the Biden family bank accounts. What else really justifies the stupidity of endless weapons shipments by the West to a war strategically lost by Ukraine days after it began?
ERing46Z There is a blog by an Australian (Gary) with an article from Cairn News who interviewed via satellite a Cossack Colonel Commandor at Azovstahl. He said there was a massive anti-Zelensky demonstration in Kiev yesterday with Ukranians demanding his resignation. There are some things that the Ukranian citizens can do and one of them is to keep up these demonstrations en masse. Also, the Colonel set out exactly in what a bad position/state the AFU are in. They are in a hopeless, entirely hopeless situation and many many more of their lives will be lost if they do not surrender. The Cossack Colonel also said that they now had full control of Azovstahl that on Tuesday 47 French Mercenaries surrendered to the RF Army with a further 52 in the evening from the French Foreign Legion. They report there are about 400 Azov soldiers down there. Doesn’t look like there are any women or children. He also said there was a biolab they had uncovered in the 11 sq km Azovstahl complex and there were 3 in Odessa, Nikolyev I think and somewhere else that were yet to be destroyed. So, it looks like there might be some truth in the suspicions that have abounded as to what there is in Avostahl. The Journalist from Cairn News Robert Lee has indicated they will bring further updates from Azovstahl.
In war, the first casualty is Truth.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fake_news_websites
Thanks for your continuing effort to keep us informed.
I wonder: is there any chance that some of the U.S./NATO weapons captured in Ukraine will find their way to Syria and end up in the hands of any groups opposed to U.S. forces illegally occupying the country?
Or Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Bolivia?
>>I wonder: is there any chance that some of the U.S./NATO weapons captured in Ukraine will find their way to Syria and end up in the hands of any groups opposed to U.S. forces illegally occupying the country?…
Sounds like a plan to me.
Watching this Special Military Operation unfold over the last couple of months, and thank you Nightvision for your invaluable Sitreps, three things stand out for me before all others:
1) Russia went into this fully prepared and determined to prevail. I even wonder if she foresaw the theft of her treasure? (The sinking of the Moskva may have caught her by surprise.)
2) The ‘west’ has had no positive contribution in any sphere or at any time since this all kicked off. Theirs is wholly negative, reactionary and destructive.
3) Of all the double-dealers talking out of both sides of their mouths, Turkey’s Erdogan would have to be shortlisted for the most dishonorable.
Hal,
1) The theft was foreseen. Glazyev in a recent interview said he warned about it in his 2016 book “The Last World War”.. but it was a necessary pill to swallow, in order to break confidence in the integrity of the dollar/pound/euro/yen system and recruit most of Zone B to join them in a new system. It is amazing the blows which crumble any other nation that Russians repeatedly survive! This alone is a sign of divine favor. And what’s stolen may not stay stolen forever.. the price will be exacted eventually, if the Anglos want certain essential commodities. And if they can’t afford it at that point, well Alaska and other territories will do in compensation.
3) The Turks have been rudely elbowed aside. Snaking to the head of the class are the Israelis openly fighting in the Ukraine now?!
https://www.indianpunchline.com/us-recruits-israel-against-russia/
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/israeli-troops-arrive-in-ukraine-to-fight-russia
“And if they can’t afford it at that point, well Alaska and other territories will do in compensation.”
Any chance they’d take Maine? Asking for a friend!
Wow, do the Israelis really want to piss off the Russians?
When i saw the video linked in the story of the Chechen telling of how a mother and child were shot point-blank, my first thought was, Send these guys to Palestine next!! But I thought better of hitting “send”—kind of an OT provocation.
But I shall say it now.
The whole Pal population is in a sense held hostage to the goon state of Israel.
IDF think nothing of shooting female medics wearing white and children and boys.
Can we see it more clearly now?
Thanks for update Nightvision! This SMO is a tactical masterclass. Go Mother Russia! “The Russian World” is a kind of Venezuela’s Bolivarian Revolution with a self-determination regional integration project.
A few videos for today.
High-precision strike takes out Kiev-regime military depot:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/strike-military-depot:3
Russian tanks suppress fortified positions of Kiev-regime army:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/russian-tanks-ukraine:4
UR-77 mine-clearing vehicle fires on Azovstal steel plant’s area in Mariupol:
https://odysee.com/@Ruptly:d8/Mariupol_dpr-TW:f
i’ve been trying to come up with an analogy for the pointless western arms flooding into ukraine and getting blown up before they even get to a warehouse and then i remembered this:
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-06-21/amazon-destroying-millions-of-items-of-unsold-stock-in-one-of-its-uk-warehouses-every-year-itv-news-investigation-finds
i’ve probably said it here before, but the US economy is basically finance voodoo and military cronyism. how sad if all the “extra” ordinance gets disposed of and needs to be replaced by the private companies who suck on the federal budget like a tick on a dog’s ass. also such a shame that so much “lend lease” and IMF debt is getting built up.
i’m surprised the US hasn’t started sending nuclear waste under the auspice of “providing brave insurgents with the material for dirty bombs”.
It’s called creative destruction- it makes sure we stay on the hamster-wheel.
As opposed to the alternative – debt-cancellation, what would have set us free.
God didn’t just ask us to have a seven day sabbath and annual sabbaths. he also commanded we let the land rest every seventh year, and debt to be cancelled after seven times seven years.
Every time God punished his people in the OT, this was on top of the list of offenses.
Very good point The Pair.
Not that I’m a marxist, but Marx foresaw the production of goods for destruction 150 years ago and realized that it was end-stage Capitalism.
Wars have always required the production of military products for destruction, explained beautifully by US 5-star Maj. Gen. Smedley Butler wrote that “all wars are bankers wars” in his short treatise ‘War is a Racket’ (in PDF)
https://ratical.org/ratville/CAH/warisaracket.html
But if corporations like Amazon are also destroying consumer products, we can see how fast the demise of Capitalism is approaching in the collective West.
I believe this to be true as the last 40 years of Neo-liberalism (witness Reaganomics & Margaret Thatcher’s: “There’s no such thing as society”) have softened up the general public to accept lower living standards & Authoritarian Populism (the forerunner to fascist dictatorship). Witness the rise of Trump in the US, BoJo in the UK, Macron after his ‘win’ in France, Morrison in Australia, Klaus Schwab’s ‘wunderkind’ Trudeau in Canada & the recent soft coups in Pakistan & Sri Lanka – both important Chinese economic trading partners.
The reason why its important to be vigilant of these trends in the collective West is, after the Reichstag fire, it only required one act of the German Parliament, the Enabling Act, for the Nazis to take full control.
“Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty” – often attributed to Thomas Jefferson
So I guess Nuland’s recent “tactical nukes” comment related to the upcoming attack on Transnistra, assuming she feels that territory is otherwise undefendable by Russia.
“Ukraine May Collapse Into Several Independent Countries, Russia’s Security Council Secretary Says”
Straight from the playbook of the Globalists. Split up the world in small units without an army to defend itself against the UN army. Do we see this playing out? The West depleting its military equipment, Europe in the process of splitting up, actually already is within the EU.
Europe/EU splitting up only means a few hundred bureaucrats/oligarchs/crime syndicates in each State stabbing each other in the back.
Isn’t the playbook of the globalists the exact opposite? Ideally the globalists want to have just one world-spanning nation, because that’s easier for them to control.
They want one grand nation only when it is their grand nation. Otherwise divide and conquer is routine.
Agreed, but Ukraine was the nation of the globalists / deep state. So I don’t think they’re happy if Ukraine were to be split up. Certainly all globalist outlets and mouth pieces want Russia to fail in Ukraine.
Globalist = Khazarian Mafia. This war with them and Russia/Orthodox Church has been going on for 1,100 years.
They are also known as the “name stealers.” They would provide shelter, housing, food and hospitality to traders doing business between the east and west. They would learn all the info from the traders probably through conversation and drink plus torture. They would assume their identity, do the business and cheat both sides in the transaction. The family of the murdered trader might get killed because the name stealer cheated someone.
Truly evil people. Good modern eamples include Victoria Nuland (who is from Ukie), Kolomoisky, Pinchuk, Soros, Colonel Alexander Vindman and his family.
But one-world government still requires administrative Gaus.
Gauleiters are appointed, not elected.
All must be Globalist Party-WEF operatives.
These cadres of Global Leaders are being trained and put in place by the WEF.
It’s on their website.
It’s not their playbook, they just try to hedge their positions.
The only case-studies is comes from history. That’s what happened when Rome fell and Europe turned into “the dark age”.
But that’s darkness might be related to the lack of written history, as in bureaucracy, more than in actual plight.
The climate was – for one, more favorable than it is today.
Brilliant as always Nightvision.
When Phase 2 really kicks in, we are going to see a lot of videos of surrendering and dead-in-the-field Ukrainian troops. It’s almost sad; they are being sacrificed by the Zelensky regime and its external handlers.
I think Russia truly wanted to avoid Phase 2. It didn’t want to conquer cities and destroy the average Ukrainian soldier.
But the Ukrainian and American refusal to negotiate, the attacks on Russia’s economy, and the US plans for a long war, etc. have forced Russian resolve to liberate the Donbass by force, and to secure the whole coastline.
Ukraine will barely exist in a few months.
This is the context for Blinken’s statement today about accepting a negotiated end, involving neutrality for Ukraine. The US is trying to preempt the coming hammer blow of Phase 2, which will shock NATO into some sense I imagine.
I would point out that the Ukie Army is in the same position as the German Army in 1918 at the Time of the Hundred Days Offensive, it’s running out of reserves and its morale is crumbling. The Germans collapsed even before the Allies reached German territory. The Ukrainian Army could collapse well before the Russians reach the Dniepr and Ukraine would fall into warlordism with NATO trying to grab as much as it can.
Look towards Kaliningrad and Tiraspol, what happens there will shape the next stage of the war, when military operations move into the Baltics, Poland and Romania. I don’t see NATO as being anymore agreement capable than Napoleon was, the war will end when the Russian Army washes its boots in the Atlantic and the defeated remains of the American Army have been driven into the sea.
But this cannot be accomplished just by military means, to win against Napoleon, Russia had to stop attempting to compromise with the militant Liberalism of the French Revolution and become the Champion of European Conservatism. This rallied the European enemies of Napoleon and of the French Revolution on Russia’s side just as the Soviet Union rallied Communists and anti Imperialists across the world in its support.
To win this war, Russia cannot play friends with the Neoliberals and the Globalists, it will have to be the Champion of their enemies, the Populists and the local Sovereignists.
To try friendship with the Western elites is like trying to be friend to members of a mind control religious cult without joining them, ultimately they will turn against you.
The stability of Western Europe in the 1945-1990 period was a product of the Soviet Union’s support of the Communist Parties of Europe, this reestablished political pluralism in Europe and prevented a totalitarian ideological monopoly.
Europe as been incapable since the late 18th century of maintaining political and social pluralism by its own unaided efforts, left by itself it collapses into totalitarianism, its real Constitution is the Russian Army, since any ideological hegemony west of Russia immediately becomes a geopolitical threat to it.
@ MonSeulDesir
“The stability of Western Europe in the 1945-1990 period was a product of the Soviet Union’s support of the Communist Parties of Europe, this reestablished political pluralism in Europe and prevented a totalitarian ideological monopoly.”
I have attempted to sort out the multiple causes for transformation of Western Europe as a place of social and political pluralism into a tweedelee-tweedelam “democracy” with converging political parties towards a single-party state following the US system where both parties follow the same script. The same phenomenon is observed within the capitalist economic model and its tendency towards the formation of monopolies with extensive vertical and horizontal integration, hence the concentration of economic power in fewer hands. Just today I looked into a small company twenty years ago changing today into a mammoth multinational through acquisition of competitors and having whole markets at their disposal. The supposed anti-competition laws are dead letter.
I did perceive that the dissolution of the USSR was a disaster because an unfettered and unhinged US would turn into a Hegemon running roughshod across the world, and my presentiment was proved right. But I did not
look into the effects on the European political scene, presuming that the traditional balance would prevent the emergence of centralization of political in a narrow political elite without alternative policies.
Looking at it through that angle, it confirms that indeed Europe lost its way because the guiding beacon of socialism was extinguished. So Marx was right, again: capitalism leads to economic monopoly, hence, because the economic model determines the political structure, to political monopoly, hence the end of pluralism.
On another level, the global one, Russia is making amends and restoring international pluralism (multipolarity) and it might percolate down to the national level again.
“People of the Abyss” by Jack London
Spells it all out very well.
Re ” The Ukrainian Army could collapse well before the Russians reach the Dniepr and Ukraine would fall into warlordism with NATO trying to grab as much as it can.”
That could be a terrible situation. The chaos of this kind of situation could further victimize and terrorize the remaining civilian population.
To preempt that situation I wonder whether Russia has considered the importance of establishing basic civilian structures in areas where the UKr civil administration has broken down.
My POV on this is from a book I copyedited about the chaotic situ in Syria and areas of Iraq and the modus operandi of groups like ISIS. It was pointed out that in areas where civil administration has broken down, even terrorists and extremists can get a foothold by organizing basic such as schools, clinics, and especially courts.
Similar to humanitarian aid but not quite the same perspective. The point is to get “normal life” up and running as fast as possible. The issue of courts is really quite important. Important focus of denazification, I should think.
And this reminds me of Putin’s recent speech. I don’t think he made any mention of the potential responsibilities of the Russian prosecutors’ offices in connection with possible occupation and installation of civilian justice in Ukraine, and other needed civilian functions.
Reports of explosions in Belgorod and Voronezh.
Great sitrep, Nightvision. Thanks very much for the detailed information.
Thanks much for your reports NV, they are most helpful.
So WTF is a giant arms depot doing in the middle of Transnistria? Soviet era?
With all the quasi public buzz and speculation on this topic the Russian planners must have gamed out a number of scenarios and have contingency plans. Does Russia have free air access to the region? Or is it conditional? Land access? Very likely conditional I would think. They must be thinking hard about Odessa and the remaining Black Sea coast…
All the pictures are of interest because they are about the war, but I think the Russian army should or will forbid soldiers from taking pictures of the dead and uploading them to the Internet. An army should respect the fallen foes. They put the passport of the young man next to his body, and professional soldiers are doing that. It gives a bad image of their army and in particular of their leaders who must know and allow it.
They’re only trying to demoralise what’s left of the regular Ukrainian forces who’ve been told they’re winning by deceitful vested interests. Many will see those photos and will surrender at the earliest opportunity. Sounds crazy but those pics could save lives. which has been Russia’s goal since Day One of SMO.
The Ukies have been torturing Russian POW’s while the Ukrainian POW’s are fed and unless they’ve been involved in war crimes, released.
“The Ukies have been torturing Russian POW’s while the Ukrainian POW’s are fed and unless they’ve been involved in war crimes, released.”
I know they are treating the captured Ukrainians well, but their fallen foes can be disrespected too. I don’t understand Russian, in some videos they talk.
Putin didn’t know there were conscripts fighting. I think if he saw these videos he would forbid all the picture-taking. Some higher-ups could get demoted. It’s very wrong to look inside the pockets of a dead soldier, find his passport, put it next to his chest, film and upload it (“professional soldiers” doing this). If it’s a tactic like you’re saying, it’s worse. Most likely only a few units and soldiers are doing this. But, there must be no rule forbidding it. It’s a clear issue of right or wrong. If the press were to ask Putin for an explanation, he would not be able to excuse it.
You have no idea what it is like on a field of battle so why pontificating about what is right or wrong about having the IDs on the bodies of the fallen?
Here is a hint: photographs are taken whenever possible to document and identify the dead for official records and to advise the other side of their losses, place and cause of death.
Misuse is another matter altogether.
“Misuse is another matter altogether.”
The point is about what is shown on videos uploaded by the soldier, who apparently has no proper orders forbidding him to do that (yet). Those orders will come sooner or later.
@Tranquilocomp,
My uncle is still lying unfound somewhere, his body has never been found and you have no idea of the pain and suffering that inflicted on my Grandfather and our family. He searched for years through obscure areas of the battle zone but nary a trace. I still have the original telegram.
You should stop posting drivel about which you have no knowledge. Better a photo and knowledge than never knowing. Better a grave than searching and hoping.
“Better a photo and knowledge than never knowing. Better a grave than searching and hoping.”
Are you saying that the family should think as you say when they see the face of their young son in that condition with the enemy soldier showing the passport next to his face (that is blown-off), or that this is the service that the soldier is trying to provide? The answer to both is “no.” This disrespect for the fallen soldier has nothing to do with communicating to the family the death of their loved one and the family understands the fact. Let us not turn a dishonorable thing into a good thing.
“You should stop posting drivel about which you have no knowledge. Better a photo and knowledge…”
The grief of your Grandfather is a fact. People grieve in different ways. Some persons, I think most, would not do what he did. Some might even believe that it is fitting that the son remain where he died. I think in ancient times they burned the bodies of the dead. I don’t know how the families knew their son died. It’s “drivel” to universalize a personal preference as you see fit. I don’t think your Grandfather would have appreciated a picture like that – no, Sir. He would not have grieved like he did, but I think he would have been angry. The issue to him would have been this other one; I think so. Maybe you know better if he would have agreed with you and not with me, and I would certainly accept that as the truth.
I think you need to reread your post and think very carefully on what you said. Do a search on Youtube for ‘Adventures with Purpose” or ‘Finding lost Russian Soldiers”, look at what I wrote, the emotional release of families that finally – sometimes after decades of searching – have closure.
Read again your second paragraph and hang your head in shame. Anger passes, but the loss is accepted – the pain of not knowing is forever. I find your post distasteful and odious, we will not interact again.
I think, that it’s right to show even the cruelest scenes.
The war itself robs away the human dignity. There is no individual anymore.
War is not video game or heroic deeds. The death is arbitrary and not beautiful.
To show real results is to eradicate the glamour of Hollywood war.
Phones are banned in the Russian army. And social networks. And selfies. So yes, Russian soldiers don’t take photos.
Photos and video are taken by:
1.Chechens. They are an interesting mix of military police, SWAT and the personal guard of Chechen President Kadyrov. They are integrated into the Russian army, but this is more of a NATO integration (think of a French battalion in a German brigade) than “we are one army”.
2.The Donbass militia. These guys have zero respect for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (VSU). Suffice it to say that the civilians of Donbass are calling the Ukrainian military VSUki. It’s It’s like Irish called the “British Infantry Terror Squads” It’s like BITcheS. Yes, 8 years of shelling of cities are not in vain.
3.All kinds of reporters, from RT and celebrities like Sladkov or WarGonzo, up to a random local dude with a phone.
“Phones are banned in the Russian army. And social networks. And selfies.”
Thank you. I had the Chechens in mind, too, when I wrote “only a few units and soldiers” most likely are doing this. The Donbass militia must be harder to control due to their war. 3) is an excuse that doesn’t apply. 1) and 2) are good excuses but excuses only. Who is the commander in chief of all these forces? Kadyrov recognizes Putin as his commander in chief. A “NATO integration” is under a military commander in chief or supreme allied commander (SACESUR) who is under a chairman of the MC, a military committee (someone is in charge).
In almost every speech, Kadyrov and his officers say that their commander-in-chief is Putin. Also, no “excuses”. It’s just the way it is.
tranquilocomp,
To give you some perspective on why that may be happening, I suggest taking a look at a few of these videos and the comments below them. If you thought those images were difficult to look at:
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=excavating+nazi+soldiers
That is what war looks like on Russia’s Eastern frontier and the way Zelensky and the CIA are fighting this one, those corpses are destined for the same anonymity and fate.
By American sensibilities, possibly what the Russians are doing is repugnant, but I think Americans ought to see these, as they the product of what the American Empire has exported to the rest of the world over the last three decades.
Thank you for the link. You make the same mistake as JackJC. This is a simple issue of right or wrong. This is not about a personal impression or effect, or about a political result, or about Americans in N.A.
Putin as commander in chief would not be able to justify it on camera. The whole image of Russia would hang in the balance at that moment. He would have to order that the same order that exists for the RF forces be extended to all forces under his command (commenter TAKT: “‘Phones are banned in the Russian army. And social networks. And selfies. So yes, Russian soldiers don’t take photos'”).
“This appears to be the first such verbalized confirmation from the Kremlin side of the likely direction Ukraine is headed in.”
Zakharova also spoke of it at I think the of the Bucha incident.
Excellent sitreps.
The Ukie POWs taken by Russian troops should be allowed to text and phone their compatriots on a mass level in the Ukie army who are still fighting to give up and surrender to save their own lives. They should also send videos and pics of theirs showing them how thw Russians are treating them as opposed to the rumors that the nazi regime have been feeding to their troops not to surrender aa the russians would kill them. This is one way of panic driven ukie troops who are actually trying to surrender but otherwisw fears of getting killed by Russian troops.
This is what could be causing those fires in Russia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FIfnOr85vQ
At this point, the sabotage theory is almost unthinkable.
“This could be an ominous warning for Azov remnants as it would mean Russia would have no qualms in destroying the Azovstal completely The only thing that appears to be stopping them is the apparent confirmation that Azov is in fact holding many civilians (they claim 1000) hostage in the basement, including many children, of which videos have now been released.”
The USA has always claimed that civilion casualties are “collateral damage” and not intended. Russia hopefull will follow that line & save time & trouble by bombing the Azovstal to pulp. Hit hard & fuck the consequences. The Civilians should be given 24 hrs notice that an attack was planned & get out . If not then the blame is on the cowardly defenders using the civilians.
Children in the vids are happy, well fed, clean.. the ladies same and made-up!! One child who was questioned made a small error in the well rehearsed show, (all to impress the slow witted who comment.. ”what about the civvies”).. the child said.. ‘I wish to see my dad’.. he was immeditely corrected to say .. ‘I wish to see my relatives’.. implying that his dad had his child with him. Bet there’s not a civvie in there.. otherwise they would already be OUT, so the Azovs could not be blamed for having a human shield
Ukraine attacking Transnistria would be funny. Because in the western official view that is still Moldova. And Moldova is a NATO member. So would be Ukraine invading a NATO meter state.
Moldova is not a NATO member. Romania is, eversince the SMO started, Ukraine tries to involve Romania somehow. Now the narrative is: today Ukraine, tomorrow Moldova, the day after tomorrow Romania.
For Romania Moldova is a sensitive point, so Ukriane hopes will involve Romania somehow.
Or maybe they are just inbterested of the weapons in Transnistria or to cause chaos, to do something to ruin things as they do
An ammunition deposit near Belgorod was blown up Wednesday morning. NATO special operation squads very active in both west and east fronts deep behind the lines.
Everything indicates that very soon there will be bigtime action around Nikolayev, Odessa and Transnistria. It will be a different kind of warfare, since the terrain is much less fortified and less populated. I can see the Ukranian military concentrations being heavily airbombed and several tank columns heading east. Only 13 days to victory day. Pretty sure NATO will try to ruin that big propaganda act beforehand.
If they will achieve victory before victory day then they need to speed up this operation to warp speed i think
How come that these squads can/are allowed to operate behind russian lines like this
I have to wonder…
if Russia is purposely allowing minor incursions and provocation by Uky to hit inside its borders? to be served in kind but accordingly. Since they don’t really benefit the outcome of the SMO in favour of the Uky’s whatsoever, at least not in a meaningful way so far.
It sure gives the Russians a justified reason, where they look less like the aggressor, and her allies will understand when Russia is to respond, catapulting the dial of pain to an ever increasing form,
Very interesting and scary if Transnistria comes into play! In any case, have you noted that railway strikes were aimed in Western Ukraine? The eastward limit of these strikes could suggest the limit that Russia is planning to achieve in the near future, since Ukraine railways will also work as Russian main supply lines once they advance there. Does this make sense?
Are the Americans buying back all the stuff they left in Afghanistan, to give to Ukraine?
Another excellent sitrep. Thank you.
As a point of precision however, the prisoners taken in Yampil were reported elsewhere as being from the Ukrainian 79th Brigade rather than being 79 in number.
That having been said, The Telegram channels I follow definitely seem to have an increase in footage of both UAF KIAs and POWs over the last couple of weeks.
Any chance NATO would ship heavy equipment to Ukraine in advance in order to organize its own direct involvement on the war
Incredibly down to earth and objective reporting in a world gone mad, excellent, but OMG what a frightful mess on the ground of the Ukraine, in time history will reveal the full meaning of this fighting.
Nightvision,
Regarding the military equipment being sent from NATO countries to the Kiev regime. It’s my belief that the true junk will sent directly into battle in a effort to delay the Peacekeeping mission.
However, the good equipment will be held back and 6-9 months of intensive training will be given both in Poland and the Lemberg region.
Looking past the Donbass Cauldron Operation….
NATO and the colonial powers are giving every signal that they want this to be a long and big war. They are preparing their Public for open NATO involvement. They are going to build , supply, and train a large Army for a future counter offensive. It’s my guess that the combined NATO-Kiev Army will be ready for operations sometime next Spring.
The rough size for the counter offensive will be perhaps 200,000 Ukies and 150,000 NATO. That’s the bare minimum for a counter offensive. I wouldn’t be surprised if NATO figures it needs a 500,000 size Army.
Moscow knows this, and has a gameplan to defeat NATO‘s escalation. Watch carefully for signs.
Exile on April 27, 2022 · at 4:46 am EST/EDT
Now this sounds pretty depressing and pessimistic.
I was always wondering why the new fency military equipment is sent to Ukraine from NATO states knowing that on the short term it will never be ready due to various reason (training time, combined tactics with new weapons, transport to the front).
One reason could be another counter offensive planned for autumn ’22 or Spring ’23.
Two reasons speak against that prophecy:
1. Where should the 200k Ukies come from? Didn’t they realize by now that they are used solely as cannon fodder? There are not so many strong young men with the “right” mindset left in UA
2. If NATO goes in officially with 150k people then this is WWIII. Who is going to do that…end of mankind…
My estimation is more the following:
1. Rebuild “Galizian” army to keep Russian forces busy on the border to “Novorossija” with shelling and constant provocation.
2. Start initiative against Transnistria to provoce Russia even more and dragging Romania into the conflict.
3. Do some shady “peacekeeping” mission of PL troops in Western Ukraine to create a clumsy situation for Russia to attack official NATO-Country personell, potentially backed by UN resolution.
For me a direct confrontation of Russian and NATO troops is not in the books of western world as a potential alternative.
Rasta,
Thanks for the thought provoking alternative ideas. Let me muse a few days on your good ideas
Problem with this is that they cannot rebuild the destroyed military infrastructure of Ukraine. Transnistria in fact has a quite big military, it would take some considerable forces to attack.
Well we all know an army of the size you quoted needs equipment, and massive amounts of it. Also time is needed to mass the personnel and equipment. Pre Iraq illegal invasion it took months to do so.
I can’t see RF sitting around and doing SFA as Saddam’s forces did.
They will be Kalibrated.
@ Exile
“…Moscow knows this, and has a gameplan to defeat NATO‘s escalation. Watch carefully for signs.”
———————————————————————————-
The signs are already out there for everyone to see.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense got prepared to accept 16,000 volunteer soldiers from Syria. Likewise, there will be many other countries that would volunteer their troops, officially or not, à la “volunteer army” the Chinese sent to North Korea back in the 50s.
US/NATO’s plan was to build a not-so veiled “coalition of the willing idiots” by unleashing a campaign against Russia at all levels, a “cancel Russia” gigantic PSYOP with the goal of gathering useful idiots from all over the world, willing to fight for “democracy & freedom” (vomit.) The West did the same trick in Syria/Iraq, where “muslims” from all over the world volunteered to fight for the “caliphate” (read CIA/MI6/Mossad plans for the “New Middle East”). There will be thousands upon thousands coming to Ukraine, they are already dying by the hundreds in 404, and will continue to die by the thousands, we can be sure about that.
Russia will get her share of volunteers, and if worse comes to worse, China will join the frey, officially or with a “volunteer army.” They know Russia is fighting an existential war for them too they cannot afford to lose. Both Russia and China can also call on regional, collective defense treaties they both belong to, in case of necessity.
IMHO, the “Ukraine War” or the “Denazification War” will expand to unimaginable limits during this year and the next one, becoming a true East vs West conflagration, both parties mustering large international armies. Chechens and South Ossetians are only the beginning, Syrians may follow. Don’t know what is happening with them right now, they may be undergoing training to meet the requirements of the Russian Army Forces.
Both Russia and the collective West know this is a decisive, existential war, that will decide the future of Europe’s transatlantic relations, and Russia’s geopolitical lebensraum in Eurostan’s sphere.
In a nutshell, a war between Zona A and Zone B.
Lone Wolf
Lonewolf and Nightvision,
Thank you for your considered responses to my Spring 2022 massive NATO Counter offensive post
Agreed that finding 200,000 Ukie’s ready to be intensively trained for the next 6-9 months is perhaps a non-starter. BUT, NATO needs 350k to 500k size Army for a glorious counter-offensive; how are they going create that size of a force ? My guess is NATO can only provide 150k-250k that still leaves 200-250k short.
The Pentagon’s way of war is build up of a overwhelming force over many many months and then indiscriminate Carpet bombing followed by Blitzkrieg. So we should noodle how NATO finds 200k-300k troops to start training PDQ for warfighting in 6-9 months.
Lonewolf – I am absolutely horrified by the implications of your post regarding a ever expanding global war. But, I think you are correct.
The War Party is escalating this conflict off the cliff. My reading of the War Party ( Blinken, Boris Johnson, Nudelman, etc) is they simply haven’t a clue how much the Constellation-of-Forces has changed in the last 15 years.
It’s shocking, how after the abject failures in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and even Kazakhstan that these serial failures remain still running our Foreign Policy and Military. In a healthy society, anyone remotely associated with such repeated failures would be put out to pasture.
That’s what scares me the most – the Blinken’s of our world seem to think they have been victorious over the last 15 years.
well at face value what you say is the only logical thing that makes sense because there’s no way sending all that equipment to the frontline in a hurry would work, or accomplish anything apart from having that equipment very quickly abandoned. With that said I personally don’t believe your theory will come about due to the following:
1. I still think most of the alleged ‘equipment deliveries’ are performative and token in nature. For instance Poland just sent some tanks but refuses to disclose how many ‘for security reasons’, the more likely reason is because it was like 10 tanks or less.
Many of the other earmarked deliveries are very low amounts that would not make any sort of appreciable impact on a battle field, and certainly not enough to arm a giant 200k field army.
Of course there’s the possibility that the deliveries will continue to ramp up and increase in scale but I’m not sure how likely that is.
2. As for the other part, I don’t know how likely it is that Ukraine can realistically muster another force of anywhere approaching 200k in the west. I know all the nominal amounts that Ukraine is supposed to have, we’ve all read their stat sheets of huge reserve forces of 900k and yadda yadda. But reality seems to be different and there are many reports that the vast majority of military aged men already escaped the country and that Ukraine in fact is struggling to mobilize anything in the west. Now this could be completely wrong and maybe they scrounge up a large amount somehow but I’m personally doubtful of this. Particularly as months go by and the situation in the east looks worse and worse for them I simply find it hard to believe they’ll manage to scrounge up much of a force and they are supposedly ALREADY committing reserves from the east (some of which I outlined in this SitRep), not sure how they plan to replenish those.
So more realistically to me is: NATO will find a way to put more mercenaries and NATO soldiers in Ukrainian uniforms and manage to scrounge up a force of 20-30k at most in the west of the country by end of this year or next year. This 20-30k might be well armed with all the new goodies in the west but by then it likely won’t mean much as the power and numbers disparity at that point will be so heavily NOT in their favor that I don’t see how they would stand a chance.
“So more realistically to me is: NATO will find a way to put more mercenaries and NATO soldiers in Ukrainian uniforms and manage to scrounge up a force of 20-30k at most in the west of the country by end of this year or next year. ”
I think this is spot on, it’s a typical method of US escalation, sending in spec ops teams, advisors – which has been going on for 8 years – getting itself into a war like Vietnam without actually declaring it. One question I have is: does Russia actually want this? I wonder. Because I personally think that the Kremlin believes – I have no evidence for this, I am speculating – that until it defeats the US on the battle field it won’t win the longer term victory against NATO, which in the end, is the US. I’m thinking that Russia may want to draw the US in, as a strategic aim, not because they are itching for a war but because this is the only way to defeat them decisively, allow & encourage a building up of a few tens of thousands of western NATO mercs, or regular troops, & then destroy them Operation Bagration style.
US has hundreds of thousands of military (at least 50,000 spec ops), 200,000+ mercs (Blackwater type of scum),plus whatever NATO total is.
Destroying a few “tens of thousands of western NATO mercs, or regular troops” would not be a defeat of the USA, it would just be a bloody nose.
“…6-9 months of intensive training will be given both in Poland and the Lemberg region.”
Says the Austro-Hungarian.
Lwow, says the Polish-Lithuanian.
Peter,
Still say Agram, Peking, Bombay, and Ceylon; even occasionally Pressburg.
BTW xchristos voskrese my friend.
Of course it may be that all those weapons are not intended to reach the front at all, but are building up supplies for an attack on another front.
Russia is at war with Ukraine who are losing, they need some painful asymetrical moves to throw Russia off. NATO may not be the power it was but no doubt has some decent strategists that can cause all sorts of mischief. Always foolish to underestimate an enemy.
Another excellent sitrep. One thing I would add is that to train tank crew takes a considerable time. Someone on “professional” military analyst Rob Lee’s twitter channel (@RAlee85 – check it out for the laptop bombardiers convinced Ukraine is winning. Former US Marine has got a bit subdued recently….) said that it takes 12 months for a Finnish conscript to be trained to operate a tank; apparently the US Army’s basic tank course takes 15 weeks.
That’s not producing experienced soldiers: I assume that means the most basic position (Loader on NATO tanks – Russian types have an autoloader). It takes much more time to learn to drive or fire weapons effectively, plus each command position: tank commander, platoon commander, company commander, etc, is more complex and needs actual experience. Then you add the chaos of battle.
Sending inexperienced kiddies with a few weeks training into war in obsolete tanks is a recipe for disaster. Actually, even if the Russians didn’t bomb them, many of them would be crashed into ditches, thrown tracks or broken down before they get there.
Incidentally, there are a few real-world examples. If you play wargames on a computer the German WW2 Panther is immensely superior to the US M4 Sherman, particularly with the 75mm gun. In reality, in September 1944 at the battle of Arracourt in France, two forces met each other, both attacking (unusual situation). Bad weather grounded US airpower. The inexperienced, badly-led, German Panthers got the snot kicked out of them by experienced US troops, mostly fielding the 75mm-armed M4.
It is futile sending this stuff, just makes the situation worse.
The ruling class in the west have gone insane. Like many others here, I worry about escalation.
Yep that’s the other main problem is the longer the war goes, the more experience and battle hardened are Russia’s forces and the less and less experienced are the Ukrainian reserves in the West that Russia will have to face, because it’s already killing off all the experienced Ukrainians. So by the time this rolls around, as you said it will be freshly trained completely inept recruits from the west going against battle hardened experts and it won’t be much of a fight in that regard.
And yes most of us are familiar with the complete hack Rob Lee who’s nothing more than a NATO shill who spews propaganda and tries to appear impartial by questioning only the 1 or 2 most obvious parts of western propaganda. He’s a complete joke and has no clue what he’s talking about because all of his flawed analysis, once again, is premised on completely fraudulent data (50k KIA for Russia, 5000 lost tanks, etc, etc. Goofy cartoon numbers)
First nuclear bomb now for Australia..? they deliver too much weapons against Russia, are far away from all the other continents and could be used as last warning for the rest of the West ?
Thank you Nightvision for the Sitrep. So, our authorities still try to get us into this War – Romanians.
I don’t know who gave them this right, as long as we, Romanians, over 90% don’t want this.
I wonder who’s interests they serve and how can they be as naive to think people will not find out that it was their provocation that put us into a bad situation?
They will cry like a baby: Russia attacked us unrpovoked, yet it will be due tot the provokations Romania keeps having, this is madness, what they do for Ukraina, that has Romanian territories and didn’t allowed Romanians to speak the language and opressed them.
PS: nothing against Ukrainian refugees, I see Ukrainians the same as Romanians: used by some politicians that seized power for the benefit of others and distruction of their homes
Read your Sitreps when I can with a keen interest. I have to say that there is a certain beauty in reading the truth, however unsavory it is. In the end its all that counts. Well done, respect and appreciation for your efforts. Thank you.
Thank you. Also for checking out the risk- possibilities of the current supply of “heavier” weapons eg howitzers.
Even today UK is calling for tanks even planes…and what was wished for and may happen after the Nato USA meeting with 40 foreign Defence Ministers at Ramstein yesterday could consolidate current supplies or move to next level. Maybe they will all just pile up in Poland until it believes it has enough just to protect its interests eg Lvov….or maybe more confrontational against the new “barrier” or militsry enforced areas that surely Russia will have to have for how long until stablity is proven ….security agreements architecture actually EU
signed off….whenever…..possibly.
Still not sure about Odessa situation….maybe could be some kind of Rus.surrounded isolated area from Ukraine but allowed to be administered by them but no Nato contact eg shipping airport etc…and having Rus. kind of border control. Kind of reverse border situation that Kiev had with Donbass.
??
Depending on defensive structures between Maripol and Transnistria Russia could punch westward towards Moldavia, anywhere north of Odessa. If they feel Donbas cauldron is a static meat grinder. This would isolate Odessa and complete the land bridge to the west. Not sure if Russia has or could commit the manpower to do that, but someone may just force their hand…..still wondering why the command and control structures in the Ukrainian rear echilon in eastern Ukraine are left to function. Perhaps a gentleman’s agreement?
Embassies returning to Kiev. Bold move, they know something we don’t. Just a guess, a back room deal has been reached between NATO and Russia. Russia would need to guarantee their safety, i.e. we won’t hit that…..the Chinese may feel different. Kiev will remain in old Ukraine, or it’ll be split east/west as the river runs through it.
Cheers M
Nightvision thank you for your sitreps.
I am American and our media makes me sick with all the lies and censoring of what is really going on there. I am a veteran of two wars and could see early on what was going on there. Discussing it with friends got me into trouble as they believe the Russia is a monster story.
I no longer discuss it unless they bring it up. What boggles my mind is they cannot see the, We want peace and yet lets send weapons to Ukraine to kill Russian as the gateway to WWIII. Critical thinking is not going on if Ukraine is powerful and winning this conflict why all the dire need of war making equipment.
Keep up the good work in getting the truth out there.
Very well said ,Canadian veteran
To Gutteriez and other bleeding -hearts and virtue -signallers:
Civilians? And? So why hasn’t ukraine Zelensky, the USA or the nationalists dogs organised to have those civilians leave the Azovstal in the humanitarian convoys Russia has allowed MANY times? Why is it only Russia’s job to save these civilians?
Spare us your lying bullshit. We know what you are up to; Stalking for time to save the Nato officers and Nazis.
Be happy I am not Putin, because you have had way too many chances to save any civilians in there, and you gave us no chances to save any of our own civilians in Donbass etc. I would have flooded the complex already,
Great sitrep.
Bravo to Russia for sparing civilians in Azovstal.
Obviously the Western media are not showing vids of civilians being abused within the AT—because holding hostage *is abuse.*
Another thought: If soldiers of one nation’s military don the uniform of another nation’s military, doesn’t that remove them from the protections of the Geneva Convention?
A comment from elsewhere:
“Putin promised if they continue strikes on RF territory that Kyiv leadership will be striked. No strikes at all, more and more people in Russia being hit by shells. Another proof that Putin’s is sabotaging this whole war.”
So more strikes last night on Russia but still no retaliation. This is frustrating many people.
Why would Putin be holding back?
I did hear this report today:
“🇬🇧🇺🇦🔥 Mi-6 have passed intelligence to the Office of the President of Ukraine and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine that Russia is preparing strikes against decision-making centers in Ukraine. It is recommended not to use the command posts of the Ministry of Defense, the coordinates of which are known to the Russian special services.”
What will they do when they run out of iffy Soviet-era weapons in Eastern Europe to try to get into Ukraine? Germany and an idea– how about being seen as compliant while avoiding contributing to blood shed:
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/politico-germany-approves-tank-sales-to-ukraine-bowing-to-pressure.html#more
and when these resources are also depleted, how about very realistic cardboard tanks?
Not much progress as far as I can see. A few dead bodies and a few drone shoot-downs don’t equate to “massive losses.” Meanwhile, thousands of Russian troops are tied down in Mariupol by a couple thousand Ukrainian trapped Ukrainian troops. Time for Russia to “take the gloves off.” Else they will be fighting forever in the Ukraine. It’s nearly impossible to defeat the enemy in a guerilla warfare campaign. Superior weaponry may win some battles, but it didn’t win for the U.S. in Vietnam, Iraq, Yemen, or Afghanistan
The US doesn’t speak Vietnamese, Arabic or Farsi….and that’s why they didn’t win in those places. Also those places don’t mold well to ‘western’ decadence. They still have real ‘non alphabetized’ culture.
Cheers M
Cesar,
I think Russia is very naïve about how the Ukrainians really feel about them, hence the disaster when they first entered the country.
This post from ANNA NEWS sums up how vile Ukrainians have become. Who on earth would make a video so vile whether fake or real?
It is time to take the gloves off. If I was Putin, I would send a clear message and Avangard Kiev. Put the fear of God in these animals.
ANNA-NEWS|News|Syria|Donbass|Nagorno-Karabakh
forwarded from
Voenkor Astrakhan
5:40
Let’s talk about Ukrainian culture, sorry for such an oxymoron. Here is a video of a popular Ukrainian blogger going to the Gostomel area, as he talks for trophies, climbs into a wrecked tank and finds a bone there. Perhaps he actually brought with him the bone of an animal, but the essence of this work does not change. Then he happily goes home, prepares what he has found and tells that he always dreamed of trying it. I always dreamed of trying a Russian… All actions are accompanied by comments.
The video is nasty, but just to be clear, all this is not a joke or fake. Here, who is not squeamish, can turn on and look at “peaceful, cultural, democratic European Ukraine.” It’s not even a matter of whether the author really eats a Russian tanker, or realistically portrays. The point is the general atmosphere of complete inadequacy.
Seen vid of a Jihadi eating some part of another human……………Avangard, you say, nice idea…..is it big enough to get the whole job done?
Cheers, M
Should be. It’s like getting hit by a meteor. They wouldn’t even have to add a nuclear warhead to it. Just hit the decision makers with it and be done and let everyone know they are next if they keep effing with Russia.
I read a few updates on Telegram, didn’t watch or entertain the video, apparently the clip of the man eating human meat is from a destroyed Ukrainian tank, not Russian.
So he may be eating his own… regardless it is still disturbing.
Rumors going around on Swedish tv that UAF has recaptured Snake Island, has anyone else heard this?
How would they capture the island without any real naval force.
My thoughts exactly.
Although, if there is any truth to the rumors that NATO is providing tracking of vessels in the Black Sea for “instructors” on the ground that can fire anti-ship missiles then we can assume that the Black Sea Fleet is keeping itself well away from the coast which theoretically would enable a helicopter/speedboat assault to re-take the island, although I fail to see what the Ukrainians would gain by doing that.
Just wondering if this rumor has been spread elsewhere or just a localized figment of someones imagination.
Snake Island supposedly housed a bioweapons factory run by a country that Igor Kolomoisky has a passport from. That same country just sent ground troop advisers to help Ukraine.
Interesting… but even if true, I fail to see what the Ukrainians would gain by re-taking it considering the Russians already have been there for a while and if there was anything sensitive there its probably long gone to some safer place in Russia proper.
Russia will permanently annex parts of the Ukraine now. It is has expended far too much “blood and treasure”. If the Khazars who run the Ukraine had surrendered 30 days ago the outcome may have been different.
@ Nightvision on April 27, 2022 · at 9:31 am EST/EDT
“…well at face value what you say is the only logical thing that makes sense because there’s no way sending all that equipment to the frontline in a hurry would work, or accomplish anything apart from having that equipment very quickly abandoned. With that said I personally don’t believe your theory will come about due to the following:..”
——————————————————–
A short response to your reply.
Attachment to a linear narrative develops into a linear vision, through which other aspects of an unfolding reality become blurred.
My theory is based on my observations of the Empire of Lies intel agencies, which in their majority are a one pony trick. CIA/MI6/Mossad continue to arm and beef up ISIS from Al-Tanf, both in Iraq and Syria, after the Russians have bombed several regiments of the same to bits. They will play the lessons learned in Syria and beyond to Ukraine, and more they will invent along the way.
My vision of an internationalization of the conflict has nothing do with arming Ukraine, cannon fodder will come first, weapons will follow. There are plenty taqfiries already fighting and dying for Ukraine, and thousands more are unemployed in refugee camps all over the ME. Western Ukraine landscape is the best for a guerrilla war, I can assure you Western intel is already building bases along the Carpathian mountains for a long war against Russia.
It is a serious mistake to underestimate one’s enemy, and Ukraine so far has proven resourceful and willing to stand up to Russia even though at a severe strategic disadvantage. They are also being spurred by the West with open coffers and supplies. We don’t know what the West has in store for Russia, but we do know that,
1) they are willing to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian;
2) they are hellbent on making Ukraine Russia’s last stand.
So far, they have been throwing their junk to Ukraine, but they are beginning to upgrade their hardware. Poland has turned into a recruitment center and a weapons warehouse, they have strong geopolitical designs on the region, and will take full advantage of this conflict to pillage what they can.
Contrary to you, I don’t speculate with figures or timing, particularly without any basis for them. War is serious business, guessing games and speculations are to be kept out. “Figures lie, and liars figure,” goes the proverb, trying to venture numbers into what the West/Ukraine will do in the near to long term, is, well, a game I won’t get into. All we need to know is their intentions against Russia are evil, and in view of the recent ME experience, they will do all they can to provide Ukraine with men and materiel for as long a war of attrition against Russia as they can.
To be cont’d…
Lone Wolf
Lonewolf,
We are both just trying to figure out the possible paths this tragedy will take. It’s perfectly reasonable to try and quantify some force structures to get a better handle on the possible paths. It’s not precise by any means, but gives us better grasp what options NATO is choosing.
We all agree that this will escalate into a long and big war.
You are also correct in mentioning all the other possible fronts such as Syria. Someone earlier brought up Chinese forces getting involved in the European Front – that’s far fetched but certainly possible.
We also keep forgetting East Prussia and Kalingrad as a NATO option.
It strikes me that President Putin’s warning to countries whose interference comes to strategically threaten Russia was aimed especially at Poland and Romania. “Decisions have already been taken”. So, there is a red line that will trigger lightening fast retaliation. And there was an explicit reference to newer Russian weapons in this warning.
My guess is that precise strikes would maim energetically those countries by striking ports, pipelines and power stations, without forgetting decision-making centres and military infrastructure.
I hope American Taxpayers realize who’s footing the bill as ‘they stand by Ukraine’!
NEWS: Ukraine, Russia, Donbass
🇪🇺🇺🇦 Europe is amazed by the scale of the import of luxury cars to Ukraine .
This statement was made by the Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Mustafa Nayem.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine allegedly needed thousands of new BMW X5 and Mercedes-Benz S-Class.
In just 8 days after the cancellation of customs duties, 14,300 passenger cars were imported into Ukraine — allegedly “assistance” to the army.
Kiev’s European “partners” have even decided to reduce the number of checkpoints through which cars from the EU are imported free of charge.
Thank you for these great overviews!
And a general Russian military question . . . on the Intel Slava Z telegram page, I see the phrase “in the Slavic direction” with some frequency. What does that mean? Is it a quirky attempt at translation that doesn’t make sense in English?
I think Slavic is one of the name of a town/city/settlement in Donbass.
@ Nightvision
This is the internationalization of the Ukraine conflict I addressed in my two former posts.
3,000 “Gray Wolves” were transferred to Ukraine via Poland, toward Kharkiv and Mikolaiv-Odessa hotspots, important targets in Russia’s unfolding Spring Offensive. Turkey is now actively working against Russia, denying airspace to Syria, making billions with the Bayraktar drones Russia continues to shoot by the dozen, and now providing cannon fodder to 404.
Who knows how many more are waiting in the rat line.
—————————————————————————
Summaries from the Novorossiya militia
yesterday at 4:20 pm
27.04.22. Note from the channel “WarGonzo”.
“⚡3,000 “gray wolves” were transferred to Ukraine through Poland
This is reported by the sources of the wargonzo project living in the territories temporarily occupied by the Kiev regime.
The participation of Turkish ultra-right nationalists in the fighting in Ukraine is also confirmed by our interlocutors, who have access to radio intercepts. The first data on the arrival of 3,000 “gray wolves” on the Ukrainian-Polish border appeared about ten days ago, but only now we have learned that they have already been transferred to the Kharkiv and Odessa-Mykolaiv directions (three detachments of thousands of fighters have been defeated). Wagons with Turkish militants passed through Zhmerenka – along with heavy equipment and artillery.
The interlocutors of the wargonzo project from the military-analytical bloc suggest that the Turkish “help” of the NATO curators of the Kiev regime plan to use for counterstrikes near Kharkiv and Mykolaiv.
Given that it is Turkey that supplies the criminal neo-Nazi regime with the notorious “Bayraktars”, the appearance of ultra-right “gray wolves” on the Ukrainian front looks absolutely logical. Moreover, the “gray wolves” have a lot of experience in conducting military operations against the Russian army and its allies in the Middle East. Activists of this radical organization at one time claimed responsibility for the shooting of Russian pilot Oleg Peshkov in Syria. ”
———————————————————-
Lone Wolf
Forgot to add the link to the post above.
https://m.vk.com/wall-57424472_346384
Lone Wolf
I was taking this post seriously, but nobody pro-Russian or pro-Ukrainian is calling this war an SMO outside of Russia which hints at a unhealthy level of bias.
With that in mind, going back through what’s rumor in here, watching the videos of a few dead Ukrainian soldiers described as mass casualties, it’s a pretty meatless sitrep.
But… I haven’t seen the pro-Ukrainian side report any decent victories in the last week which is concerning to me (Ukranian bias), and the narrative that Ukraine might pro-actively invade Transnistria is compelling. NATO forces are visually confirmed to be on the Black Sea border of Romania with Ukraine. I’m watching Transnistria closely because marine landings there in Ukraine by Russia trying to reinforce Transnistria would have to go through sovereign Moldovan which has close ties to Romania.
How long can Russia afford to not mobilize? Russia has not called up reserves, and is not using conscripts in Ukraine. How serious is the lack of manpower?
Clarin (Buenos Aires):
deepl translate
“Marine weapons
War in Ukraine: Russia deploys dolphins to defend its Black Sea naval base
They are two groups of dolphins captured by U.S. satellites. They protect the Russian fleet from possible attacks by divers.”
“The presence of dolphins trained in the Black Sea was reported Wednesday on the USNI news portal.
It explained that the Russian Navy placed two dolphin pens at the entrance to the port of Sevastopol, just inside a boardwalk. The pens were moved there in February.
The presence of dolphins in Sevastopol could prevent Ukrainian special operations forces from infiltrating the underwater port to sabotage warships.”
It says they weigh as much as 650 kgs. and are as fast as 35 kms/hour.