Check out this great article by AP: AP Interview: US troops may be sent to E Europe. Looks nice and official – here is a US 4 star general who has been tasked by EU ministers to come up with a plan to “protect” NATO member countries from the “Russian threat” which he estimates at 40’000 men. To look more credible, the good general makes some “military sounding” statements:
“What we see there is a force of about 40,000, I would characterize it as a combined arms army. In other words, this is an army that has all of the provisioning and enablers that it needs to accomplish military objectives if given them (…) The Russians’ assets include fixed and rotary wing aircraft, artillery, field hospitals, communications and jamming gear.”
So far so good. And then comes the masterpiece:
The general adds that however the Russian contingent might ultimately be used, it’s “ready to go essentially at command. We talk about inside of 12 hours“. WOW! Scary stuff.
One problem with that:
The good general does not seem to realize that there is no such thing in the Russian military as a “12 hours readiness”.
Let me explain.
For an imperialistic naval power, a 12 hours readiness or even a 24, 36 or 48 hour readiness is extremely high. That the time needed to get in 82nd Airborne ready to go, and that is quite good enough for the USA whose own territory is only threatened by illegal immigrants from Mexico and bad drivers from Canada. 12 hours is really fast only when what you want to do is to invade some small country – preferably an island with no military – or if you just want to go and kill some Brown people somewhere, just to show how scary and powerful you are.
But for a land power like Russia, 12 hours readiness is absolutely unacceptable, much less so for units supposedly on high alert and ready to invade the Ukraine. How long would it take for a US/NATO missile or bomber to get to the nearest Russian base or deployed unit? You take that time and it will give you an idea of what “high readiness” means to the Russian military. It is counted in minutes, not hours, and most definitely not 12 hours.
It appears that the US general spinning this fairy tale tried to make is sound real scary and thus he came up with what he believes in a fantastically high degree of readiness for the Russian forces: 12 hours. What he clearly did not realize, is that by Russian standards a military force with a 12 hour readiness is essentially on holidays and at the lowest possible level of readiness.
Furthermore, it might be a good time to remind everybody that the US intelligence did not see the Russian military move in 2008 (during the 08.08.08 war) and neither did it see the “Polite Armed Men in Green” move into Crimea. So much for the most bloated intelligence community on the planet…
Lastly, a “combined arms army” is definitely not the adequate tool to use if the Russians wanted to invade the Ukraine simply because the Ukrainian military simply does not have the kind of force one would attack with a combined arms army. To deal with the Ukie military a much lighter and mobile force of mechanized infantry and a few battalion tactical groups would be plenty. Frankly, some Interior Troops (police forces) such as the SOBR and the ODON would be much better suited as they are used to deal with criminal and paramilitary thugs like the Right Sector.
A US 4-star general really should know better. I am embarrassed for him.
The Saker
ЭТУ СТРАНУ НЕ ПОБЕДИТЬ! Русские не сдаются!
today at 8:22 pm
ВНИМАНИЕ ВСЕОБЩАЯ МОБИЛИЗАЦИЯ!МАКСИМАЛЬНЫЙ РЕПОСТ
По информации от наших активистов с гражданских блокпостов, к Донецку, Луганску стягивается тяжелая украинская техника. По агентурным данным сегодня ночью или на рассвете киевская хунта поставила задачу решить вопрос с нашим протестом категорично и решительно при помощи военной силы.
В ОГА СРОЧНО!!! Необходимы: медикаменты ( средства первой помощи ), любое топливо, средства самообороны!
Всё выше перечисленное можно подвозить прямо к зданиям ОГА!!!
Так же можно и нужно помочь финансово:
Для гривен: карта приватбанка 5168-7423-0869-5224
Координация: 050-143-01-32 Александр
ДОРОГИЕ ЕДИНОМЫШЛЕННИКИ МЫ БЛИЗКИ К ПОБЕДЕ КАК НИКОГДА!!!НУЖНА ВАША ПОДДЕРЖКА!!!ДОНБАСС – ЗА РЕФЕРЕНДУМ!!!http://vk.com/iniciativa_donbassa
Crazy Ivan says…
Please, use Google Translate. Here it is:
THIS COUNTRY DOES NOT WIN! Russian do not surrender!
today at 8:22 pm
WARNING general mobilization ! MAXIMUM repost
According to information from our activists from civilian roadblocks to Donetsk, Luhansk contracted severe Ukrainian machinery . On agents’ data tonight or at dawn Kiev junta has set the task to solve the problem with our protest categorically and emphatically by military force .
In RSA URGENT ! Need: medicines ( first aid ) , any fuel , self-defense !
All of the above can directly drive up to the buildings AOH !
You can and should help financially :
For hryvnia : 5168-7423-0869-5224 stake Privat
Coordination: 050-143-01-32 Alexander
DEAR MINDED WE ARE CLOSE TO VICTORY EVER ! NEED YOUR SUPPORT ! DONBASS – FOR REFERENDUM !!! http://vk.com/iniciativa_donbassa
some anti-maidan guys from charkow seem to have cought/kidnaped a US-merc.
video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9mSvoN2OWA#!
after getting beaten he claims to be a us-citizes. he is wearing the uniform of the ukraine anti-terror-unit.
might be staged, but the question remains why he is wearing the uniform.
*******************************
Nasrallah’s remarks on Syria
Hizbullah Secretary-General, His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah: An exclusive interview with As-Safir Lebanese Daily
http://assafir.com/Article/129/345739
*********************************
Well, again, an invasion has to be like a Hollywood movie. Action, shoutings, smoke, noise, shock. Awful.
WizOz
That general is typical of those the Jewish zionist western media showcase as military expertise. And judging from how U.S. and NATO conduct their war making, he is probably fairly typical of the sort of brass they are fielding now.
вот так
вот так, I expect he’s fairly typical of the sort of brass we’ve had at least since Korea. Once “we won” WWII, we’ve been plagued with the type who climb the ranks on the merits of who they know, how well they play up to their superiors and what they look like walking down the hall. I don’t think a one of them even realizes we haven’t won a war in the past 100 years despite all the countries we’ve invaded and destroyed. After all, smarts have never exactly been our strong suit.
Unfortunately many of my fellow Americans seem to believe anything.
Saker,
I generally agree with your post. I don’t agree with your statement to feel sorry for the General
There is no need to feel sorry for General. His is intentionally blowing smoke up everyone’s ass. It’s part of the disinformation campaign/propaganda.
As far as deployment times of the 82nd & similar US military units:
I can tell you from first hand experience in various QRF’s, etc., we would be wheels up in less than 15 minutes.
I know for a fact the Russians have similar versions of this & so does this General. That’s why everything he’s been saying to the media is all BS.
Meezer
I
The part that I disagree is about the time it takes the 82nd Abn to deploy.
I can tell you first hand experience with the 82nd (and a few other outfits) t
@The part that I disagree is about the time it takes the 82nd Abn to deploy.
When is the last time you saw the 82 move out to deployment (i.e. by definition overseas) in 15 mins? Sure, when everything is ready, it can get on wheels (as you say) in 15, but real deployment is not on wheels, but on wings. Grenada? Desert Shield? Afghanistan? Nope – ever time this was a matter of *days*, is that not so?
Is that not true?
Besides, *why* would the 82 need to be on wings in 60-90mins anyway?
Finally, the 82nd is not mechanized, it is composed of para infantry regiments, so comparing it to a fully mechanized VDV division is apples and oranges: the 82 needs to get its wheels *somewhere else*.
Or has that changed recently? Am I still stuck in Cold War realities?
Kind regards,
The Saker
Nora
“how well they play up to their superiors and what they look like walking down the hall.”
Yup. :D
вот так
The talk about Russian troops on the border, and I would include the empty talk about Transnistria (WHY WOULD RUSSIA NEED TO INVADE THERE?) isn’t really supposed to be analyzed intelligently. It is just empty chatter, whose purpose is attaching fearful militarist terms to Russia, as the DEFINING attributes of Russia, not as specific events in time. That’s it. Nobody (within MSM narrative) asks: “Well what is Russia’s normal force deployment? If their total military force is X, isn’t 40,000 troops on Ukraine frontier pretty much normal? Keeping all those troops in the middle of Siberia would be kind of pointless.” Obviously asking “Why was Kiev talking about numbers multiple 100,000 higher just days ago?” is against the rules, you can’t point out the emperor is eating his own tie.
Further, this dialogue is silly because it ignores WHY Russia’s military might be on higher readiness: it’s not just because they’re evil and all of a sudden randomly decided go on the warpath. Russia has been clear about it’s position from Day 1 of the coup, not recognizing the putsch (with specific legal rationale) and so on, and their actions since have been entirely in line with that… Yet their DIPLOMACY and the factual points it raises is utterly ignored by the NATO media. Now I’m sure that there is more serious engagement behind close doors, at least by some NATO members, but publicly they must maintain the facade with designated good guys and designated bad guys, no messy details to ruin that scenario, and no questioning of their own actions/inactions leading up to events.
The EU itself (actually PACE) specifically issued a warning of fascist nature of Svoboda and warned against any cooperation with them. Clearly there was cooperation with them by NATO and other Ukrainian parties, yet no accountability for that. They are now even portrayed as ‘moderates’ in some pieces I’ve seen (in contrast to Right Sector brownshirts, of course).
Russia is supposedly acting “bad” outside the norms of diplomacy… Yet it was the EU who turned down Yanukovych’s request for 3-way talks with Russia to negotiate an economic agreement for Ukraine that is neutral between both sides and still viable. The EU turned that down, no reason given: a neutral position that is beneficial to all sides is obviously not worthwhile.
Russia didn’t even sign the agreement between Yanu and Maidan that the EU brokered… And the EU was happy to instantly forget about it, not bothering with giving a reason why it couldn’t or shouldn’t be followed thru with… “Their guys” “won”, and that’s all there is to it.
Honestly, EU diplomacy and pronouncements of PACE pretty much lost any credibility they had, because they’ve shown that they will engage in instant amnesia the moment it is convenient to them, breaking their own rules and moral stances, and going back on agreements they’ve signed. Beyond Russia and Ukraine, what world conflicts in the future might have been solved without further violence, but for diplomacy and EU credibility having being destroyed here?
No matter how stupid western propaganda appears to most of us here on the Saker’s comments pages, there are still tons of people who fall for this sort of junk, many of them gleefully as they have already been indoctrinated by decades of brutal lies, distortions and fabrications. It is therefore important to publicly challenge and expose even the stupidest of stories.
On the positive side there was this news today …
VoA stops airing in Russia due to contract expiration:
http://rt.com/news/voa-radio-broadcast-halt-496/
> Kiselyov denied that his decision has “anything to do with the freedom of speech”
> as Voice of America and the Voice of Svoboda “have nothing original to say”.
> “They sound like they are broadcasting from another world, at least from
> a world that doesn’t exist anymore” he added. “I regard these radio
> stations as mere spam on our frequencies”.
… wonderful! How Russian regulators could ever allow this toxic shit to be broadcast on their domestic air waves is beyond me. Now that USAid and VoA are gone it’s high time for the Russian authorities to take a close look at the activities of the remaining foreign sponsored subversives, such as the gazillion of US bible belt nutters and their sects.
Is there a good discussion/outline on the difference between Ukraine and Belarus in respect to western and eastern borders/relations etc? The current map does not explain this very well to outsiders.
U.S. national strategy must be founded on the control of the sea. The oceans protect the United States from everything but terrorism and nuclear missiles. The greatest challenge to U.S. control of the sea is hostile fleets. The best way to defeat hostile fleets is to prevent them from being built. The best way to do that is to maintain the balance of power in Eurasia. The ideal path for this is to ensure continued tensions within Eurasia so that resources are spent defending against land threats rather than building fleets. Given the inherent tensions in Eurasia, the United States needs to do nothing in most cases. In some cases it must send military or economic aid to one side or both. In other cases, it advises.
Stratfor
George Friedman
From Bulgaria
Dear Saker
Please, try to put some effort in translating this Croatian text
Nije glupost. Budući da UK i USA zanima boljitak Srbije i da njim je Srbija mnogo važnija od Hrvatske (koja njim je neželjeno dijete koje se ,eto, dogodilo), onda i domaće anglofile izravno ili neizravno zanima boljitak Srbije jer zastupaju i brane upravo politiku anglosasa kojima je Srbija #1. Dakle, domaći anglofili su, realno, najžešći zastupnici srpskih interesa (iako su neki toga i nesvjesni). Jer ako pogledamo, Zoki, Vesna i naš predsjednik su svi redom gorljivi anglofili, savjetnici i suradnici su njim gorljivi anglofili a istovremeno obožavaju naše istočne susjede.
Using Google
It is not nonsense. As the UK and the USA are interested in the betterment of Serbia and that Serbia it is much more important than Croatian (which it is undesirable that the foster child, that happened), then the local Anglophile directly or indirectly interested in the betterment of Serbia as represent and defend the right policy Anglo-Saxons who Serbia first # 1 Thus, local Anglophile are, realistically, agents fiercest Serbian interests (though some of the unconscious). Because if you look, Zoki, Vesna and our president are all of them ardent Anglophile, consultants and associates him an ardent Anglophile while worshiping our eastern neighbors.
# 6698
http://www.forum.hr/showthread.php?p=49480867#post49480867
.
The NATO-Standard was, for all units 15 minutes wheels up, sober ord drunk.
Dear The Saker,
On RT news today was some of the most ludicrous stories. This one was very funny:
They showed the identification of the so called Russian spy caught read handed – not only were words spelt wrong on the identification but they had their job classification as “Spy” – this is factual! I am not joking :).
Also they had a picture of refugees from Crimea walking along a railway line. This was the same picture used months earlier to show Syrian refugees!
Alleged empty stores in Crimea – but price tags in USD – it was a store in NY!
A big demostration pro-pustch Govt. – camera pans round and only 15 people there…..
Just some of the questionable news being sent out…..
Rgds,
Veritas
Dear The Saker,
The farce continues:
“PACE has voted for the expansion of sanctions initially proposed in the draft resolution on the powers of the Russian delegation, stripping the Russian delegation of the right to vote and work in the administrative structures of PACE and take part in election monitoring until the end of this year. The resolution was backed by 145 PACE members, 21 voted against it, and 22 abstained.
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) on Thursday stripped the Russian delegation of the right to vote until the end of this year and imposed a number of other sanctions.
The tougher sanctions for Crimea (suspension of the delegation’s powers for the same period) were not supported.
The document adopted by PACE says that PACE is suspending the Russian delegation’s right to vote until the end of the 2014 session to express its condemnation and disapproval of the actions taken by the Russian Federation concerning Ukraine”.
Read more: http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_04_10/PACE-strips-Russian-delegation-of-right-to-vote-in-2014-over-Crimea-2082/
One thing I noted was the fact that Russia can’t participate in election monitoring until the end of the year. How convenient for the Ukraine presidential elections……..
Rgds,
Veritas
p.s. The EU sucks – really sucks – they don’t represent their people :(
Saker,
I need to ask you a very pointed and seemingly negative question. Because of this let me begin on a positive note.
I was moved to tears of joy as I watched the secession of Crimea, and its being taken in by Russia.
I saw the so obvious joy on the faces of the people; the free and open elections, the, yes let me say it, the gentle yet powerful and protective presence of the Polite Green Men, and the repelling of anyone at the boarder no matter how well disguised, who would try to enter and to destabilise the peaceful change of nationality.
I also saw how quickly the Crimean government reached out to the Tatars to include them in the new situation and allay their fears about the changes.
All of this and more, caused me to reflect on the always deeply positive experience of watching the powerful, in this case Russia, with the guiding hand of Mr. Putin, protect the vulnerable; and specifically in this case from the profoundly malignant sickness of the North, which is made clear by your work, and that of a few others, certainly never by the Western (to borrow Pepe Escobar’s term) “poodle’ Press.
Anyone who can deny this amazing growth of freedom and choice in a population is a liar, a hypocrite, a manipulator, and an agent of darkness.
Now for the pointed question: Is Russia only the observing and waiting white knight in all that is happening now in The Ukraine? Are in fact Russians, (as some suggest) entering the east and the south to foment rebellion, no matter how deserved it is? Can you give us your take on all this, as well as giving us the “good” Russian processes?
Thank you Saker for bringing light and truth into the world as you do.
PV
@PV:Is Russia only the observing and waiting white knight in all that is happening now in The Ukraine? Are in fact Russians, (as some suggest) entering the east and the south to foment rebellion, no matter how deserved it is? Can you give us your take on all this, as well as giving us the “good” Russian processes?
While covert operations are by definition covert, I think that there are two very reasonable assumptions we can make:
1) There is no doubt in my mind that Russia has plenty of friends, supporters, agents and spies in the Ukraine which, after all, is right next door and which has been a major pain in the butt for Russia for the past 20 years. Think about it: in ALL OF ITS HISTORY the independent Ukraine has never caught a foreign spy on its territory. Not one. And this while the USA alone spent 5 billion dollars to subvert the place through its “democracy promoting” NGOs. So I am quite sure that the Ukraine is quite full of Russian agents.
2) Russia has NO interest in breaking up the Ukraine or even in creating any rebellion there because a rebellion there would be brutally put down and that might FORCE Russia to intervene. What Russia needs is a unitary and independent Ukraine which is federal or confederal in its structure and not anti-Russian in its central power. In terms of “what Russia wants” in the Ukraine – for itself that is – Crimea is all that really wanted or needed, and it has that now. The rest of the Ukraine is just not needed by Russia at all.
So, yes, I am sure that Russia has plenty of agents, spies and collaborators in the Ukraine but, no, I do not think AT ALL that the current rebellion in the East is in any way fomented or even exacerbated by Russia. This really is a local, popular, spontaneous and, frankly, quite dangerous uprising of simple people against the Nazi freaks in Kiev and even though the West has a vested interest in presenting this as “the Hand of Moscow” this is utter rubbish – Moscow has nothing to do with this.
I hope that this answers your question.
Kind regards,
The Saker
Well.
I think Russia is far nearer and readier to take over Eastern Ukraine than I did yesterday.
Putin: “Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday he hoped talks between Russia, Ukraine, the EU and US due next week would have a “positive” outcome, but warned that Ukraine’s interim government should not do anything that could not “be fixed later”.”
To me, the last statement or warning can be translated, “Don’t start killing people unless you want to see a whole lot of polite green men, or even impolite green men coming at you hard.”
I don’t think Putin will stand by if a lot of people start getting killed. That will trigger an invasion.
Something like a personal announcement: I wanted to let you know that I really really appreciate your writing.
The reason why I don’t continue posting comments is just this: 20 years ago I invested most of my free time in a project that was (and is) very dear to my heart. Pity was: nobody was interested.
And now, all of a sudden, lots of people want it. Problem is: 20 years ago my energy was easily enough to do it. But to do it now – that is on the limit of my strength. Therefore: No extra-curricular activities, sorry.
Veritas
“One thing I noted was the fact that Russia can’t participate in election monitoring until the end of the year. How convenient for the Ukraine presidential elections……..”
I’m sure that was part of the plan. It’s how the zionazis have their quislings operate.
вот так
Crazy Ivan says…
The Saker, you are contradicting yourself.
If Russia does not want any rebellion from pro-Russian population (what means not invading Eastern Ukraine AND not breaking up Ukraine) AND she has so many covert and overt “agents” (aka “sympathizers”) it’d suffice few phones with polite asking to calm down the activities. Of course, Russia would have given them something in return.
You might try to answer more interesting question – who will annihilate the nationalistic forces of Ukraine when they are part of new Ukraine administrative structures?
From that point of view Ukraine should be invaded NOW, with the “right sectors” and Svoboda’s __private army__ known as National Guard destroyed in 100%. The same fate should be applied to “dogs of war” to show them not to meddle with Russia any more. Of course I would kept alive about 20 mercenaries to show them on TV (for propaganda’s goals) and then exchange them for Mr Bout and the other Russian kidnapped by US MFs.
@Crazy Ivan:The Saker, you are contradicting yourself. If Russia does not want any rebellion from pro-Russian population (what means not invading Eastern Ukraine AND not breaking up Ukraine) AND she has so many covert and overt “agents” (aka “sympathizers”) it’d suffice few phones with polite asking to calm down the activities.
Sigh.
Ok, I will make it simple and clear.
a) Yes, Russia has plenty of agents in the Ukraine.
b) No, they are not the one fomenting the unrest.
If that is not clear enough, then let me add this:
c) Russia does not have the means to stop or even reduce the unrests.
Is that clear now?
The unrest in eastern Ukraine is a grassroots popular movement which Moscow does not control at all. It is not The Kremlin who triggered this unrest, but the crazy and self-defeating policies of the freaks in Kiev. The folks in the east are frightened and angry and Moscow does not have a magic wand to use to get them to all calm down and go home.
Honestly, I don’t know how to make it simpler. Sorry.
Kind regards,
The Saker
Test PV
I couldn’t agree more with you Saker.
If Putin could calm down the Russians in Ukraine, he would have done it already. “Diplomacy” is by far and away his best course now, as he holds all the cards.
But you are completely right. What’s causing the trouble in Eastern Ukraine are the murderous attacks by the freaks. And that is why Putin feels he has been forced to say, “Don’t do anything that cannot be undone.”
Just as an example. Suppose a few Russian agents were caught up in this mess. And murdered. I don’t think too terribly much of that could occur until he acted.
And suppose he does invade. Will the British people support a ground war against Russia in Ukraine? Tony Blair raised to the tenth power could not bring that off.
Lumpy Gravy said…
I think
RIA Novosti is big rubbish.
RIA Novosti works for CIA
Crazy Ivan says…
The name Crazy Ivan comes from the famous film The Hunt for Red October.
Another famous adage from the movie goes like this – Russians will not fart without an order – sort of.
The expression grassroots comes from American political culture. Did you stop thinking in Russian? :) (It’s a joke, please, do not feel offended by that.)
Anyway could you name one truly grassroots event within regions of former Soviet Union?
Perhaps the omnipotence of Russian authorities is another myth, I do not know, but having Ukraine infiltrated to the point you mentioned it is highly unbelievable.
What I want to achieve asking you the questions is to make to look over horizon of one generation. How would fascist and downright nationalist Ukraine look like after 20 years (one generation) educated, armed (by NATO) and glued with the idea of Great Ukraine?
Do you think Russian Federation could coexist with such rabid anti Russian country (administration) and Russophobes (young society) few hundred kilometers from Moscow?
Berlin costed Russian millions of her citizens, haw many Russians would have die to free Kiev from descendants of UPA and many other Ukrainian mothe*****rs?
mr Saker, I am very worried about the potential coming actions of the maidan regime.
I am wondering if at a more hidden level, mr Lavrov is able to talk some sense into Kerry et al. (red line).
And if the state department, if convinced, is able to hold back its puppet regime.
And if the puppet regime is able to hold back the mercenaries and fascist bandits.
A pessimistic view, but if all hell breaks loose, mr Putin also won´t be able to hold back, as the Russian people will demand some action.
What action?
1-Nothing
2-A heavy retaliation strike, eliminating some forces asembled, or even some commanders.
3-A temporary occupation
4-Independent republics, protected by Russian forces
5- Annexation.
Given the severity, I opt for 2, 3 or 4. 1 and 5 seem to me very unlikely.
But then, I´m no military analist!
Looking forward to your next posts!!!
Crazy Ivan says… Addendum
I must apologize for the second adage from the aforementioned movie. It wasn’t funny but represented American thinking about Soviet Army.
The sentence should go rather with “infamous” word, not with “famous” one.
It seems I started thinking in American way as well. :( I beg your pardon.
Crimea Annexes Russia
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/04/10/crimea-annexes-russia/
CUTE! CUTE! CUTE! CUTE! CUTE!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ayV0wsg61Bw
So basically 08.08.08 and the “Green Men” happened while the Americans were on their water break, waiting for the Russians to get ready to move to the start line.