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On Sunday, a US Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet shot down a Syrian Air Force Su-22 warplane near Ja’Din in the western part of the province of Raqqah. Ja’Din is located in the area south of the town of Tabqah controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
The Su-22 was supporting the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) advance towards the ISIS-held town of Resafa located at the Ithriyah-Resafa-Raqqa road.
“At 6:43pm, a Syrian regime SU-22 dropped bombs near SDF fighters south of Tabqah and, in accordance with rules of engagement and collective self-defense of Coalition partnered forces, was immediately shot down by a US F/A-18E Super Hornet,” the US-led coalition said in a statement on the issue.
In turn, the Syrian Defense Ministry said that the attack was attempt to undermine the SAA effort against ISIS.
The US attack came amid the rapid SAA advance in the Resafa area. With the liberation of Resafa, the SAA controls one of the important roads heading to Deir Ezzor besieged by ISIS terrorists. In this case, the US move is another attempt to draw red lines for the internationally recognized government of Syria. Washington sees successful SAA operations against ISIS as a threat to the US influence in the war-torn country.
Following the incident, the Iranian Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) launched medium-range ground-to-ground missiles at ISIS targets in the Syrian province of Deir Ezzor. According to the IRGC, the missiles were launched from the western Iranian provinces of Kermanshah and Kordestan, flied through Iraq’s airspace and hit terrorists targets in Syria. Iran reportedly used Zolfaqar missiles.
The IRGC statement said that the missile strike was a response to the recent ISIS-claimed terrorist attack in Tehran. However, it’s clear that this missile strike was a message to the US-led coalition and US-backed forces in Syria. The missile strike shows that Iran is capable to conduct a missile strike on joint garrisons of the US-led coalition forces and US-backed militant groups located near the villages of At Tanf and al-Zquf at the border with Iraq.
Meanwhile, according to some sources, sporadic firefights appeared between the SAA and the SDF south of Tabqah after the SDF had opposed government forces attempt to conduct a pilot rescue operation in the area.
Reports also appeared that US-led coalition forces are setting up a military facility in the town of Tabqah. US forces are reportedly aiming to build a command center and residential buildings for its troops. According to opposition sources, the US wants to adopt the new base as a long-term base in Syria.
Despite tensions with the US-led coalition, the SAA continued operations against ISIS in the eastern Hama countryside where government forces liberated Jab al-Saad, Rasm Amoun, Hanita and Hassou al-‘Albawi and continued advancing with aim to shorten the frontline in the area.
The recent events show that the US and its allies lost a tactical initiative in the conflict and now they are attempting to stop ongoing or prevent expected SAA operations in the provinces of Raqqah and Deir Ezzor, and along the border with Iraq.
And the latest tit for tat:
Pentagon Responds: “US Pilots Will Defend Themselves If Attacked By Russians”
“We are aware of the Russian statements,” a Pentagon spokesman said on Monday morning. “We do not seek conflict with any party in Syria other than ISIS, but we will not hesitate to defend ourselves or our partners if threatened.”
America is trying to call Russia’s bluff, but her allies are not so confident.
Australia, traditionally America’s closest ally, just completely suspended air strikes.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-australia-idUSKBN19B0GY
Biden’s National Security Advisor called the al-Tanf operation a “mistake”.
https://twitter.com/ColinKahl/status/876851482217369600
As I was guessing this morning, drawing a border at the Euphrates has given Russia the upper hand.
Article obviously related: (fyi)
Syria: Seedbed of WWIII
If the U.S. military continues to run amok, it is hard to see how armed conflict with Russia in Syria can be avoided…” Gilbert Doctorow, Ph.D.
http://usforeignpolicy.blogs.lalibre.be/archive/2017/06/19/syria-seedbed-of-wwiii-1158999.html
rt news at 1700 today had a brit boffin saying “summer of 1914…
Pax
meanwhile on the ground, events seem to be moving quickly.
http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/06/us-aggression-not-slowing-syrian-armys.html
Gains:
The Euphrates is now thew border between SAA and SDF. SAA won’t have to fight as much below/west if the river compared to what they would need to do. So, the SAA can encircle ISIS and neutralize. With the River as the demarcation line, easier to identify foes. Below the river, dead. Above, you’re SDF.
SDF is constrained to the area East of the river. When the time comes for Turkey and Iraq to say no to Kurdistan, no confusion about what is meant.
Russia looks sane to Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Qatar. US looks insane.
Legal precedent for exclusion of all US forces, possible war crimes trials in ICJ or reparations in ICC.
Loses: What? One plane.
This is a waiting game. Unless US tries something totally unhinged, in which case “Twilights Last Gleaming” etc.
Also, the longer this goes on, the greater the Xanax shipments to Tel Aviv until they are all so medicated they cannot fight.
Good analysis. In fact, the US seems to have laid a trap for itself.
Rt reporting Australia suspending flights …for the moment……is there any way of checking whether any usa coalition flights are taking place at all……presumably this applies also to military transport supply V flights which might make a difference too…..any way of checking SAA and Russia are extending their flight areas too?
Crucial days in Syria.
Prime time for fake news and disinformation from all directions. Fog of war almost impenetrable. Things should clear-up within 24-48 hours. But make no mistake: the Syria alliance will continue to advance on multiple fronts.
Hopeful reports are coming out of Syria. The Russians have now “basically” told the US to stop attacking Syrian troops (and planes) or they will defend them and shoot down the US aircraft. Finally,they have made that move. I began to hope things might be changing from the statements made by Russian generals lately.They have been much stronger. And the last MOD press briefing I saw after the US bombing of Syrian troops a short while ago. The General talking was “noticeably” livid when talking about it.
I dont believe that the Russian Army will shoot down US military airplanes. Russians aren’t fools and they won’t fall into this trap.
The truth is that the loss of a single bomber won’t change the course of the war, especially if Iran is responding so quickly with massive rocket strikes. US is desperate now, nervously holding the trigger to shoot, but they can’t do much damage. Each time they are exposing their agenda and making angry more allies. Australia jumped off the boat. Germany have enough of sanctions, etc.
Friends and Comrades, Belief is good. Logic is too.
Soviets shot down many USAF machines and killed in the process as well as taking prisoners.
I have heard that dismissed by US Officer Pilots as “Those were intel missions” – right. Mostly, but there was also an airliner…pilots shoot when they are ordered to shoot.
Red Air Force has no special right to this, the US has shot down many more, including many airliners…sometimes not intentionally…
My belief is based on history of past behavior of Red Air Force and US Air Force. They shoot when the time is right.
In present example the Syrians have gone to UNSC and registered the assault as as what it is, and said quite clearly that they intend to resist all non-coordinated and permitted aviation and ground operations within Syria. The Russian have their back, let the Syrians do the shooting at invader airplanes and so forth – that’s the shape of the thing…
If I said that the fellas would hear? What?
The message is obvious, there’s the door. leave now, because if you do not I will be visiting…and in the meantime stand down and stay quiet, one false move and you will get a visit right away…there’s the door…
Oz got the message. Now shall we speculate on just how many hours will pass before the Canadians also “turn” ? (Thomas Merton, please forgive me!)
However, 4th R has no alternative overall, so I assume attack ops in another theater of the 3erd WW is developing, perhaps in Donbass (Putin sure showed emotion over Donbass and Ukraine in those interviews…), perhaps also in the Pacific…air ops over Korea announced – the entire peninsula, not only SK – geewhiz!
And there’s also the falseflag parade…just about all violence stems from Policy, an crimes, whatever they may spout – it’s totalbs – Violence is Policy in 4th R, and this is 4th R…all dressed up sometimes, and increasingly open about the Policy and the Actions… (Actions is a nazi lingo term…)
Light fun might be reading an english language lexicon of the language of the third reich…the parent of the 4th with the nice folks in Munich, London and Dallas… Dallas? Well, that’s a long story…
Recommended book “nazi-deutsch/nazi-german” https://www.questia.com/library/101355173/nazi-deutsch-nazi-german-an-english-lexicon-of-the (for a review and excerpts)
Comrades, the language we have gradually witnessed develop since 1999 and the Bush 43 coup is lifted almost precisely from the language of the 3 R… It shocked me, even though it made sense…
And then there’s the ongoing freak show in EU and US, and the weather too…
What times!
Pax
LZ
Bit of relief as an Australian that my country could take a sensible move that presumably the Empire doesn’t like.
https://southfront.org/australia-suspended-airstrikes-syria-refers-us-downing-syrian-warplane-russian-response/
Happens once in a blue moon if ever.. so it’s heartening to see.
Better when they start melting down the military stuff to make toys and bicycles and window frames…but staying home is a start…
Meanwhile 12 more civilians killed in US attack on civilians in Syria
http://english.almanar.com.lb/290035
Finally, Canthama has updates:
“The Tiger Forces are moving to hold the right bank of the Euphrates, SE of Raqqa city, through the pipeline, this is not the shortest in kms but maybe, some argue about it, the safest way to Der ez Zor (no slow mountain battles).
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=pt&lat=35.692995&lon=39.699097&z=9&m=b&gz=0;387638854;353767338;0;2839097;3433227;4243738;9146118;3062222;11192321;414193;12661743;0
Additional key strategic reason for this road:
1)
is that it protects flanks, the Euphrates would shield the advance all the way while just the empty desert between the Euphrates and the Mount Bishri, that is why it is considered the safest way, beside it is flat land.
2)
This move also block the SDF advance on the right banks of the Euphrates.
3)
It boxes in ISIS in Raqqa, no more retreats, which will make the SDF to fight them instead of pushing them out of Raqqa. For ISIS, the boxed in, will mean fight to the last.
– – –
Few area to watch closely in the coming hours :
1)
New offensive to wipe clean Jobar in Damascus. Large preparation was made for this to happen, attack from 3 axis to attempt isolation and first line of defense collapse. Results unclear so far, some deep penetration on Ayn Terma-Zamalka axis may be so far the most effect and it aims isolation of the pocket.
2)
Some of us learnt that the terrorists attempted twice to hit the Marj Ruhayyil Airbase which supplies the choppers to CAS in Daraa, no serious damages were inflicted by the attacks. The attacks were done by the US regime funded terrorists from tell Musaytiba, some 10 kms form the base and holding the upper ground.
Early today the SAA recaptured Bir Qasad, this is a critical site for the whole eastern Damascus and north Suweida cauldron, which this new liberation, the terrorists in tell Musaytiba are toasted all the area between Bir Qasab and al Safa Volcanic field will collapse.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=pt&lat=33.294378&lon=36.773987&z=11&m=b&gz=0;365686798;331533614;2063369;1418769;1459121;0;0;933660;1926040;1499116;2083969;1361374
3)
The battle for the air defense site SW of Daraa city may be one of the most important attack today, this can change the situation in all Daraa Province, it will be one of the toughest and bloodiest battle int he short term, Igor has some maps posted. So far the terrorists’ counter attack was effective and they retook it. It does not look good at the moment.
4)
Eastern Khanaser pocket is about to be liberated very soon, lots of small farms and villages liberated in the past 2 days and the place has very few die hard ISIS placed there to delay any advance but not for counter attacks or anything else.
This area has just one key strategic objective for ISIS at the moment, to hold SAA troops in a longer front line only around the pocket, once it is liberated, few thousands of soldiers will be pouring into the Ithriyah-Resafa road and expand the defense perimeter for this road, and finally the access to Aleppo will be much safer in its half part of the road, still work is on going for Salamiyah-Ithriyah other half.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=pt&lat=35.630512&lon=38.150024&z=9&m=b&gz=0;378094482;354729732;0;3337033;2046203;2991701;5149841;670756;3034973;0;1057434;447232
– – –
Robin, Elijah nailed it this time, this is exactly what this insane US regime attitude led to. It won’t be long for us to see that certain groups inside the SDF will start to defect and disengage, actually after the Su22 downing, some groups voiced out that things have changed between the many groups inside the SDF. But it is too soon to tell, I really expect large mobilizations of arabs in Hasaka in the up coming months.
– – –
T3
The T3 liberation creates a very serious dilemma for ISIS, exposed flanks and no more near term safe heaven for their terrorists, it basically guarantees that the area in the red box will be completely ISIS free, which now it becomes clear why the SAA advanced late last week toward the outskirts of T2.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=pt&lat=34.409176&lon=39.331055&z=9&m=b&gz=0;386334228;340606236;1908874;4719574;16438293;2998189;7484436;0;0;2147516
Then, prep to advance inside the red triangle below toward Der ez Zor.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=pt&lat=34.861144&lon=39.795227&z=9&m=b&gz=0;388298034;343876459;0;1494603;16287231;0;12826538;8478785
Once we place this advance, plus the Tigers’ and plus the 5th Corps/Hizballah on Arak-Sukhanah, we can see that a possible main strategy is to approach Der ez Zor from 3 different axis, while boxing in and creating pockets of ISIS to be eliminated later one or pushing/herding them to a easier killer ground.
The 3 axis is a remarkable endeavour, and requires a lot of soldiers and air support, but it basically set the stage for isolating ISIS in the Myaden/Lower Euphrates (recall Syria-Iraq border strategy to eliminate ISIS from this area), and also completely block any US attempt on this side of the Euphrates.
It seems the last showdown for ISIS will be in oil rich triangle of eastern Der ez Zor, and judging by the recent advances, we are not far from it, maybe even late 2017.
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=pt&lat=35.155846&lon=40.720825&z=8&m=b&gz=0;398446655;344907116;82397;11888979;14831542;14272601;11755371;0
Why can’t the US military be ejected from Syria, since it was not invited by the sovereign authority to operate within Syrian territory? Isn’t Russia the only nation with permission to be there?