While Imperial politicians are still entertaining hopes that loud denounciations will make a difference, a “new Middle-East” (to use Condi Rice’s expression) is definintely being created by the recent events in Gaza even if it is not at all the Middle-East envisioned by the USA. The following are the main changes which have, and are still, taking place:
- The Arabs are not afraid of the Empire any more. Robert Fisk once said that, in the past, when the Israelis crossed the border with Lebanon the Arabs used to jump in their cars to drive to Beirut; now when the Israelis cross the Lebanese border the Arabs jump in their cars in Beyrut and drive south to fight. The US debacle in Iraq, the stunning victory of Hezbollah against the IDF, and now the equally stunning defeat of Fatah (and its US/Israeli/Egyptian sponsors) will have a huge psychological effect on the Arab population.
- The kind of opponent the Empire faces today is very different from what it was in the past. The old PLO/FPLP -type of secular fedayeen has been replaced by a deeply religious resistance fighter who is willing, if need be, to become a martyr (shaheed). This “next generation guerrilla fighter” is also highly patriotic and is not, countrary to Imperial propaganda, under foreign orders: he is fully home grown. Thus, he has no patrons which can reign him in or which can be made to pay for his resistance.
- The leadership of the new religious groups is, quite unlike its secular predecessors, far less susceptible to corruption. For example, even opponents of Hezbollah in Lebanon concede that the Hezbollah leadership is total honest and in not involved in all the money making schemes of the rest of the politicians.
- “Land for peace” as a concept is dead. Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Iraqi resistance and now Hamas in the Gaza strip have shown that the only way to get land is war.
- Imperial puppets (such as Abbas, Maliki, Siniora or Karzai) all realize that for all its promises the support of the Empire does not secure their future or safety (think Musharraf here). In fact, the support of the USA has become a kind of political “kiss of death” for any politician in the Middle-East.
- The huge military-intelligence-security complex put in place throughout the Middle-East to crush any anti-Imperial popular revolt is slowly coming apart. Even the House of Saud or the Al-Sabah family are coming to realize that neither the US military nor their repression apparatus can guarantee their safety.
These are fundamentally new realities to which the Empire has not been able to adapt to so far. Indeed, the options are limited. First, there is the “more of the same” kind of response which, in a knee-jerk reaction, the Imperial leaders have already displayed in response to the events in Gaza. Of course, “more of the same” will, well, bring more of the same results; hardly a viable long-term objective.
The second option is escalation: an attack against Iran, more US troops in Iraq, unleash even more terror against the Palestinian population, etc. This is not much of an option either, being as it is little more than a faster, bloodier, more frantic version, of the “more of the same” plan. It is also totally useless against the type of foe the Empire now faces. Which leaves only one solution: real negotiations with the enemy.
That would mean forgetting about the Abbas’, Sinioras and Karzais of the region, and sit down with Hezbollah, Hamas, the Taliban, the Iraqi Shia and Sunni and “negotiate with the terrorists” without preconditions of any kind.
There is no way in hell the US Zionist lobby will ever allow that to happen, so the first step must be taken by those who a) risk the most at waiting any longer and b) those who have the least to fear from the AIPAC/ADL crowd: the Israelis themselves.
Considering how totally terrified of the “Lobby” US politicians are, not to mention that they are cowards in every sense of the word anyway, I expect nothing from them.
The Israeli political system is, however, quite different and while the current choice of Israeli politicians is decidedly uninspiring, more defeats and crises will eventually discredit them in the eyes of the Israeli population. The Israelis, as a people, lack neither courage, nor vision, nor intelligence, nor patriotism and sooner or later a political figure will emerge who will not be intoxicated by the current nauseating mix of crude racism and religious bigotry with prevails in the minds of Israeli politicians and who instead will have gut to tell his people the simple basic truth: that Israel’s security can only come from making Israel acceptable as an entity to the peoples of the Middle-East.
So Ahmadinejad will get his way. While Israel – as a country – will probably not be wiped off the map, Israel as a racist ethno-theocratic state relying on terror to impose its will on the rest of the world will not survive the new Middle-East which is being created before our eyes. The only question is now much blood will be shed by the Empire before it comes to terms with this reality
Very good post.
However, I’m not quite so sure that the Israeli people will come round and elect sensible, non-racist politicians – at least not any time soon. I believe that anti-Arab sentiments are so deeply ingrained in Israeli society that it will take a lot to change that. Right now – and for the foreseeable future – the costs of occupation just aren’t high enough to force a significant change of mindset in most Israelis.
Good post, but this:
“deeply religious resistance fighter who is willing, if need be, to become a martyr (shaheed)”
There have been all kinds of martyr or suicide guerillias/soldiers throughout history. Tamil Tigers were secular marxists, Japanese Kamikaze died for their Tenno.
The PLO had suicide bombers too.
There is nothing special about those why do this for some religious reason. Why emphazise it?
Bernhard
Why emphazise it?
Because I believe that the Shia are a unique phenomenon which cannot be compared with the other resistance movements out there, not even with the Tigers or, much less so, with the Kamikaze.
The Shias are raised with the concept “every day is Ashura, evey place is Kerbala” (look it up on the net) which essentially stresses that God was betrayed by each Muslim once, at the time of the murder of Hussayn Ibn Ali and that it is therefore a soteriological imperative not to betray the Truth again. The Tigers deal in nationalism, as did the Kamikaze – the Shia martyrs (by the way, the word martyr means “witness” in Greek, just as Shaheed means “witness in Arabic, which brings the commandment “Thou shalt not bear false witness” into an interesting perspective, does it not?) are literally saving their souls and showing their love for God. I believe that this makes a huge difference.
I’m not quite so sure that the Israeli people will come round and elect sensible, non-racist politicians – at least not any time soon. I believe that anti-Arab sentiments are so deeply ingrained in Israeli society that it will take a lot to change that
Oh, but I very much agree with you. However, the Israeli racism will not prevail in the face of the reality on the ground. By an almost dialectical mechanism, the more violence and bigotry the Israelis heap on their neighbors, the more formidable an opponent they end up facing. They only really have two solution: massacre the entire Arab population in the Middle-East (sort of what the Europeans did with the Native Americans) or sit down with their enemies and find an arrangement with them (like the Afrikaaners did in South Africa). I do not believe that the Israelis have the means of the former option (even if they currently certainly do have the hate and willpower). So the latter is simply the ONLY option left. Should the Israelis choose to try to excercise the former I really think that Israel, as a country, will be wiped off the map. Simply put – there is no way in hell that Israeli racism will prevail against the Shia willpower and resolve.
Thanks for your response.
Regarding the Shia, I don’t think they are so unique, or so seperate from the run of ‘normal’ human beings. Some are secular, some are religious. Of the latter group, a few are fanatics of the type you mention, but these types, thankfully, are hardly typical.
Regarding your second point, and the example of the Afrikaners’ reconciliation with the blacks as an example of how a coloniser can make peace with the occupied, I think one very important difference when compared with Israel/Palestine is that, in the case of SA, the price of apartheid had simply become unbearable. It was no longer working for anybody – although still of course the whites abandoned it only with great reluctance – and continuing with it meant only continued isolation for all South Africans. For the Israelis, however, the price of occupying Palestine just isn’t that high, though they like you to think that they are ‘suffering’ terribly – the ‘anguish of the Israeli occupation soldier’ and all that. Until the price of occupation becomes unbearable, I see no change of heart on the part of most Israelis.
the latter group, a few are fanatics of the type you mention, but these types, thankfully, are hardly typical
Here we very much disagree I think, at least when you say “thankfully”. I think that the pious Shia are THE main force which can – and does – oppose the real threat to the world: the Salafi/Wahabi types which are, indeed, as dangerous and evil as anything the American or Russian propaganda writes about them. Not only that, but the religious Shia are also the force which will – I believe – make the Empire bite the dust, which will be a good riddance for the entire planet. Please be assured that I am not a Shia, or even a Muslim, myself. While I am an Orthodox Christian (sometimes called “Greek Orthodox) I do in no way share the beliefs of the Shias. I do, however, have a huge respect for them, their tragic history, their truly amazing courage and long-term foresight into how to prevail against a truly awesome coalition of Neocon Imperialism on one hand, and a Salafi/Wahabi resurgence – funded by the House of Saud – on the other.
Until the price of occupation becomes unbearable, I see no change of heart on the part of most Israelis.
Here I fully agree with you. I do however also think that the price to pay will increase dramatically rather soon. I still think that the crazy Neocons running the White House, the US corporate media and Congress will attack Iran before long, and that will prove to be fatal to the US imperial folly. Once the US side of the Empire goes down I think that the Likudniks in Israel will undertand that besides maybe Micronesia, Palau and Tuvalu the rest of the world only has disgust for their policies. As for their much feared nuclear weapons, they are totally useless against the kind of 4th generation opponent they are facing.
As the saying goes, it is not the size of the dog in the fight which matters, it is the size of the fight in the dog. The Shia have the biggest fight of the planet in them, and the Israelis currently have almost none and nor will they have much unless they believe that they are truly fighthing for their survival.
I have studied the Shia for years with a great deal of attention and I do not, repeat – NOT, believe that they want to kill all the Jews in the Middle-East. Unlike the Wahabi/Salafi, the Shia are far too sophisticated (and I am not talking about the kind of person like Ahmadinejad here) to ever force the Jews of Israel to fight for their survival. In fact, Khamenei, Nasrallah, Qassem and others go to great lengths to stress that they are not fighting Jews at all, but only their currenly ideology and policies.
Let the Neocons attack Iran. The Iranians have been preparing for this for two decades already and they are as ready as can be. We shall see what happens within 6 months of such an attack.