by Ghassan Kadi for the Saker Blog
The alleged stray ground-to-air Syrian missile that landed near the nuclear reactor in Dimona Israel carried many messages; both overt and covert.
And, as if the fact that this missile managed to penetrate Israel’s formidable ‘Iron Dome’ was not embarrassing enough for Israel, the official Israeli report alleged that the missile was actually Iranian-made; not Russian as initially perceived by the world.
In other words, the Israeli report is saying that its ‘Iron Dome’ has been easily penetrated by a missile that is 1) not meant to hit ground targets, 2) had already spent its fuel and maneuverability and was literally on a free fall trajectory by gravitation and not propulsion, 3) yet it penetrated the allegedly most advance air defense system in the world, and 4) above all, it was made in Iran; a nation ‘crippled by sanctions and governed by ‘fundamentalist Mullas’.
Seriously, Israel has never before admitted a defense failure that is even close to such similar proportions.
Ironically, almost simultaneously, Iran revealed photos of an American aircraft carrier taken by a drone; not to forget mentioning that Iran also revealed that it has developed kamikaze drones ready to attack any target within their range in the Gulf.
But the Dimona incident alone cannot be seen in isolation of the recent Russian ‘diplomacy’ initiatives in the Middle East. I have deliberately put the word diplomacy under inverted comas, because that Russian version of diplomacy has a side that proves its worth in both traditional diplomatic ways as well as ones that are unorthodox.
Russia has thus far been very tight-lipped about its objectives in the Middle East. My own analysis of it has landed me in hot water with Russian friends and media allies, and I accept their stand. Perhaps they do not want me to ‘spoil the hidden agenda’, but my role as an analyst is not going to stop, and their views, directives, and concerns will not make me feel guilty for expressing my analyses and predictions.
In this portrayal of recent regional political events in the Middle east, I am relying on bits of pieces of information from here and there, but the analysis of it all is based on my own understanding of what makes sense in combining all what is currently taking place. My analysis does not represent the views of any blog, news agency or government. I have expressed similar views earlier, but events keep progressing, and in every step of the way, it seems that my initial prediction about the Russian initiative in the Middle East was accurate. So here is an updated summary of it all with a bit repetition of earlier material for the benefit of first-time readers.
Ever since Russia responded to Syria’s request to offer military aid, Russia responded with accepting the request under certain conditions; conditions that stipulate a Syrian-Israeli peace settlement agreement.
But this wasn’t all. Putin’s Russia is trying to reverse what Kissinger did to Russia some forty years ago when he catapulted the USSR out of Middle East politics and conned Egypt into accepting a unilateral peace deal with Israel in the so-called Camp David Accords.
Ever since then, Russia has been deprived of a role to play in the Middle East, none at all, until Putin sent troops into Syria and thereby changing the status quo not only in the Middle East, but also heralding the end of the single global superpower status of the post USSR USA.
The post-USSR world has seen Russia suffering from huge American-based NATO encroachments in Eastern Europe, and the current impasse in Ukraine is only one aspect of it. Former Warsaw Pact nations have gone full dipole away from Russia and in cahoots with their new-found Western ‘allies’. The Stalin era might have left a bitter taste in the palate of some East European countries, but this was a long time ago, and nations like Poland and Ukraine surely must understand and know who are their historic regional and global allies. With the era of Nazism and Fascism in the dust bin of history that Europe would like to forget, even Germany and France ought to realize that today’s Russia cannot be associated with Stalin’s-USSR any more than today’s Germany and France can be associated with Hitler and Petain.
And, if Poland wants to remained mentally entrenched in the Stalin era and forget about who liberated it from Nazi occupation, it should look further back in history and remember that the partition of Poland in the 19th Century was not only orchestrated by the Russian Czars, but also in collaboration with Prussia and Austria.
As discussed in the previous article, the current animosity of Eastern European nations towards Russia is not something that can be rationally explained and justified.
Back to the Middle East.
Only Russia can broker a peace deal in the Middle East, a deal that includes not only Syria and Israel, but also Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
The main sticking elements in any such deal are Israel and Turkey, and to a lesser extent Iran.
In the same previous article mentioned above, I predicted a win-win scenario that Russia will broker between Iran and Saudi Arabia; one that guarantees the mutual withdrawal of Iran from Syria and Saudi Arabia from Yemen. As a matter of fact, a few days ago Saudi Crown Prince MBS announced that he wants to have a good relationship with Iran. Is this a sign that this deal is closer than we think? Perhaps not, but I cannot think of any other reason.
Turkey will undoubtedly want a bite of the cherry, and I not sure how will Russia be able to diplomatically appease Erdogan without giving him too much more than what he has taken already. However, his recent stand on Ukraine has put him in deep hot water with Russia and in any future bargains, he will find that his Ukraine venture will be used against him. He has deliberately introduced a bargaining chip that can be used only against himself.
This leaves Israel; how to bring Israel to the negotiating table for a deal that is unlike all previous American-brokered deals.
All American-brokered deals have thus far been based on providing Israel with the lion’s share and the Arab party with very little; especially when it came to making deals with the Palestinian Authority. Furthermore, on top of the political and strategic gains that America delivered to Israel in all of those deals, America ensured that Israel continued to have military superiority and that Arabs would never be able to score a major military victory, even if united.
Despite the October 1973 (ie Yom Kippur War) and what followed it, all the way up to the July 2006 war with Hezbollah, and the humiliations that Israel suffered from all of those military engagements, Israel remains mentally entrenched in the euphoria of the huge Six-Day War win of June 1967 and what ensued afterwards, resulting in what can best be described as the invincible army complex.
Israel will not be prepared to sign a peace agreement with Syria while it believes that it continues to have this military superiority; the power to shape events in its favour. For Israel to change course and become more realistic, it needs either a new generation of political leaders who are more rational, or a reality check; a punishment if you wish.
This is why it is that, inasmuch as the corridors of negotiations are opening up and the tables are being prepared, so are the drums of war.
It is worthy to note here that major reconstructions have not begun in Syria yet. The underlying message here is that perhaps Syria is expecting more carnage, and that reconstruction will have to wait. Why reconstruct twice? In its current state of devastation, Syria has little to lose.
Israel, on the other hand, is in a very vulnerable situation, and the Dimona incident has exposed this gaping hole.
Syria has exercised great restraint in the face of the ongoing Israeli airstrikes. Even though an Israeli jet was downed a few years ago, by-and-large, Syria has remained non-respondent. We do not know exactly what is happening behind the scenes, but it seems that Israel is misreading Syria’s lack of response and seeing weakness, despite information from Russia that such is not the case. Israel will continue to act like the regional bully, refusing to sit at the negotiating table as an equal partner, unless it receives a significant hit.
This hit is not necessarily one that will cause much carnage in Israel such as civilian and military loss of life. Putin will not accept or allow such a level of devastation to be inflicted on Israel. After all, a significant fraction of Israel’s population is originally Russian. Putin, furthermore, is intent on convincing Israel that it is Russia, and not America, that can give Israel real peace with its Arab neighbours.
To this effect, Israel only needs to lose a few fighter-jets, ten, maybe twenty, finding itself unable to defend key military and strategic land targets in order for it to realize that the days of military superiority are gone.
The Dimona incident is a forewarning, but only if Israel wants to read in between the lines. Otherwise, there will be a war in the Middle East, a war that will be intended to be contained and limited to be a punch, a powerful punch, but not a knockout.
With this said, this is the Middle East, a very volatile region, with many volatile heads. A limited war aimed at showing who has muscle may end up spiraling out of control and into something very large. With experience of such unpredictability, Syria is presenting to Israel that a long war will bring more destruction upon Israel than it will on an already destroyed Syria.
What seems certain is that peace initiatives are on the table, but not all parties are yet convinced that they will attend such talks as equal partners before some arms are twisted and statures rattled.
The “war” has to be a missile war.
Syria cannot conduct a land and air war. It has no air force capable of commanding the skies. And its land army is tied down, north, east, south and west and at the Golan. It simply cannot fight Israel.
But Iran and Syria can launch a missile war that costs the IDF those 10-20 aircraft, the author suggests.
I actually think that Russia will craft a diplomatic solution before a war breaks out.
And what if Putin is just pretending he’s on Apartheid Israel’s side?
Doesn’t Putin know what the Jewish Bolsheviks did to his country?
Are those Russians – or many of them – in Israel not a Russian secret Army?
And where does that leave Palestine, the core issue for Syria’s Assad who once said no peace without Palestine?
So many questions. Not many realistic answers.
Larch, you have left Hizbollah out of your analysis; they have the numbers and equipment to launch a ground invasion when the missiles of their own, plus Iran’s and Syria’s, start flying.
They have stated that the next war will be within the illegal borders of the Zionist entity.
Missiles will take out the Zionist war infrastructure, jets and runways included, and the ground invasion will do the rest.
I began with a missile war. I’m assuming Hezbollah’s 150,000 rockets and missiles will find use in a war between Syria and Israel, particularly over the Golan and Shebaa Farm which is the prize both sides want and for which blood will flow.
Israel is 99% in the air with standoff missile launches. For a good reason. A ground war would ignite a missile and rocket war which Israel would badly lose.
So, the inevitable war will be a missile war and Hezbollah automatically will be part of it.
Good analysis, Ghassan Kadi – many thanks.
Interesting scenario and I hope it’s correct, that the multiple forces are all working their way to the table – the entire region, including the outliers, in a gathering brokered by Russia and no doubt with the background taste of Chinese investment as the region stabilizes.
Larchmonter is correct, I believe, that Syria cannot fight Israel. The great strength against Israel is the unity of the Resistance, I think.
Iran has spoken of this, that if she goes to war, all the forces in the region will fight at her side: Hezbollah, Syria, Iraq PMU and Palestine (and Houthi to the extent able). We’ve heard this but not yet seen it demonstrated. When Iran attacked the US base last year, larger war did not develop and so we have had no cause to see the unified Resistance show itself as real.
It may be that this is what Israel needs to be shown: the unity and implacable resolve of its neighbors – as well as some missiles taking out some planes. It may be the only face-saving climb-down open to Israel, politically and militarily, to be surrounded by overwhelming power. One wonders what event would cause all the actors in the Resistance to make such a life-or-death commitment.
If in fact Israel is mentally fixed in the Six-Day War (and thanks for this information, Ghassan Kadi), then it will have to take the punch in the mouth that all bullies must take to change their behavior.
~~
Or is it possible that if KSA and the Gulf can be won geo-politically, away from the USA, and Erdogan can be constrained, and Lebanon can become a nation, a greater peace could simply emerge, rather than being painfully birthed through blood? We have seen Russia’s great dreams come true before.
Russia can attempt to broker peace between Israel-Palestine but it won’t go anywhere :
1. As long as Palestine remains under Israel’s yolk – most importantly economic/monetary control. Land control discussions are the least of their worries.
2. There is already too much baggage and too much angst against Israel to expect a win-win settlement. Realistically, Israel was and still is the aggressor (deny and twist it all you want but that is the reality). Unless Israel is willing to concede a lose-win settlement, this will drag on till eternity … piling on more baggage.
3. No peace is better than a faux peace which would explode again. Whatever you do at the wedding night, the result is the same in the morning.
A little on Israeli wars in the past that it purportedly won. What it won it didn’t win it by itself. Without Britain and the US backing them with money, military & intelligence, that little piece of land they are calling Israel would have been crushed long ago. If they’ve developed an invincibility complex despite this, well, it can only bite back at them.
Israel needs Russia more than the latter needs it when/if it’s current host (i.e. the US) goes into a predicted decline. Lest Putin forgets, does Putin need any reminder what happened to Russia in the past? The Russian speaking immigrants in Israel should not be mistaken as part of the true Russian diaspora. If Russia ever makes the mistake of twisting Arab arms to bring them to the peace table to concede, then it has fallen into a trap.
On Saudi’s MBS wanting good relation with Iran, laughable perfidity. Until they reconcile their religious sectarian issues, it will never go anywhere or mean anything. This is the first fundamental – everything else are just distractions. In addition, an Arab peace with Iran goes against the interest of Israel – as long as chaos & strife remains, they will not focus on Israel nor develop more than Israel. This is the second fundamental.
Lastly, look where MBS’s Neom vanity project is located on the map. Does that look like someone wanting to have good relation with its neighbors?
What sectarian issues there are none. Saudi Arabia and Iran had good relations under the Shah. The removal of the Shah and a mixture of Islamic theocracy and democracy was seen by the Saudis as an existential threat, and along with the West, they didn’t the Iranian revolution to be an example to others. Only then did the demonization of Iran, Persians, Shias commence. With Saudis spending $80 billion to export their takfiri ideology. A centuries-long sectarian issue was just an oversimplification by Western media. These are political issues the Saudis only really play lip-service to religion in reality while also using it as a tool to repress their people and maintain their rule. You know the Saudis have good relations with India’s Modi a hindu extremist that has incited violence against Muslims in India, while Wahhabis also despise hinduism and polytheism. They don’t care about religion, Islam, or Muslims they only care about maintaining their power.
Well, come on, mr Kadi, what grounds are putting your criticism on? Any moral standards? any religious, Islamic or christian ones?
You would nt have expected that Egypt subservicence was forever, would you?
You would rest under the prospect that if Moscow was a weak agonizing power in the 90 ties and first decade of 00, they would linger in the limbo for coming decades as well, would you?
And once, Moscow by their own effort and sacrifices comes back to the former strength as to earn some respect, which BETTER place to show it plain to every body in the West than in the Middle East?
What about the issue of ‘Weapon testing fields”? YOu would not dream that the Iraqi and Yuguslavia arms test fields (by Nato-US) or the Libia test field in 2011 was to be kept as a US-Europe privilege, would you?
The expression “Israel and its Arab neighbours” betrays a fundamental misunderstanding. The issue is not peace between the Zionist entity and any particular Arab country, but justice for the Palestinian people.
nonsense. the issue is about regional sovereignty for a geographically strategic territory linking Asia, Europe, and Africa. this region shares a common history and culture, even with regional diversities.
the idea that this struggle is about Palestine is a product of the Oslo accords which aims to solidify the artificial boarders established by Sykes-Picot in order to legitimize Israel and decieve neighboring states into view the conflict as separate from their destiny.
the idea of “Palestine only” without any conception of pan-Syrian or even pan-Arab unity is an obviously sectarian position that only benefits EuroAmericanJewish capital, as a unified political vision among Arabs would leave euro-banking cabals irrelevant and their global investments, particularly in Africa, inaccessible.
I would say that the US needs to learn the same lesson as Israel, that it is not invulnerable, that it is not #1, etc etc Problem is that US political leaders are totally incompetent and believe their own propaganda. I am worried that enough competent military leaders have been run out of the service (because they won’t bow to the party line) that many of them also believe the indispensable nation #1 fighting force propaganda, too.
Maybe a bigger trick to convince the US than Israel? Can the US suffer a defeat without escalating to nuclear war?
I’m fairly confident that American “leadership” would attempt to wage limited, tactical nuclear war rather than suffer catastrophic defeat on the battlefield. Their doctrines call for it and their oft-demonstrated divorce from reality indicates that it’s highly possible.
If a shooting war ever breaks out between. US and Russian or Chinese forces I’ll stand ready to dig a hole, shove my arse inside and pull the dirt in behind me.
The wild card in all of this is Israel’s nukes. If Israel starts to lose a regular war, they will nuke Damascus, and will also nuke Tehran (if they can).
They might hesitate to hit cities, if only for the obvious diplomatic and PR backlash. They’d be too hard pressed to justify counter-value attacks in order to avoid losing the conventional war and –if they were truly going to lose– whoever didn’t get whisked away by the US or the UK would likely stand in court for war crimes. Then there would be the issue of the hidden nukes being undeniably public and that whole can of worms would be the mega-feces topping on the whole criminally insane cake.
That said, they might consider tactical attacks on supply depots, airfields, things that can cripple logistics, command and communications. Targets that might actually help avoid defeat, which leveling Tehran wouldn’t accomplish if their line were to collapse. Remember that Iranian soldiers eschewed gas masks during the war with Iraq because they refused to cut their beards. That’s some motivation and morale in my estimation.. It’s also insane in my estimation, but I can’t deny that it was effective. Attacking Tehran would just make them fight harder.
If not, they’d get the US or the UK to do it and avoid the whole ‘undeclared nuclear weapons’ farce.
The Zionists are narcissists, have been since the fraudsters came down the mountain with the stone tablets “go gave them”.
Narcissists are not noted for their ability to calmly consider their options and select the one that does the least damage for fear of negative PR. Pushed into a corner they do extreme, self destructive stuff as they loose whatever grasp on the plot they had in the first place.
Add in the US “christians” with their endtimes nonsense and their belief in “the rapture”. Expecting them to encourage Israel to take the sensible option is the epitome of wild optimism. They wish for the cataclysm to usher in their insane biblical prophesy.
Negotiating a path through that mess without getting something very nasty on his boots will take all the skilll Putin and Lavrov have ever exhibited and a hell of a lot more. Good thing they have Shoigu to turn to if diplomacy falls into the mud.
It is time of Hybrid War and it is in the same time of Hybrid Peace .
(from Latin hybrida offspring child of a freeman and slave).
So ambiguity is the main sign of the epoch we live in.
Do not expect Peace fast , but War is also not going to be catastrophic.
So they took our freedom to speak , yet we have freedom to reflect in
silence and get ready to endure . Time is on our side.
i
Good article.
Poor Syria is on his knees and as you say very much destroyed but still there and fortunately backed by Russia.
The fact is that Israel may lose not only one or two planes but part of her military aviation if Netanyahu who seems to be cornered by his opponents makes the folly to attack Iran.
We should see a lot more in the coming months.
Thank you for your analysis.
‘As discussed in the previous article, the current animosity of Eastern European nations towards Russia is not something that can be rationally explained and justified.’
It can be explained if a small number of Eastern European politicians get big rewards from Uncle Schmuel for becoming Russophobic, though.
Why else would Poland sign a ridiculous agreement to buy hugely expensive US LNG, when gas from Russia is so much cheaper?
There have to be rewards for the politicians, if not for the people they are supposed to answer to (when was the last time the average pol responded to anyone but those greasing the wheels of international intrigue, eh?).
Otherwise such deals simply would not get signed.
Part of it involves US TNCs transferring manufacturing capabilities from the Western parts of Europe (high labour costs) to the East, including Poland. We in the UK were none to impressed by Kraft making specific promises to a takeover panel regarding a chocolate factory in the North of England, only to go back on those assurances very quickly to relocate the factory to Poland. The status of US female CEOs took a nosedive then in the UK and until proven otherwise, every female CEO with a US passport is now regarded in the UK as a lying, unprincipled bitch who needs metaphorical bitch slapping in the armoury of diplomatic options available during any negotiations of significance.
By doing all those economic transfers, the US gained leverage over the East, saying: ‘We did this for you, now you do something for us, OK?’
That’s my cynical view from the UK, anyway.
The Israeli establishment is clearly divided along irreconcilable lines. Behind the political blabber, the divide line is between the old, ground losing, US centered interests, and those that understand the future and the “juice” lies East. (By the way, this is the underlying theme in virtually every present struggle on the planet.) It’s only a matter of time before Netanyahu and anything remotely connected to Likud gets ousted. Only then can they sit with the Iranians and Arabs with a straight face. The alternative is Israel ceases to exist the moment the US inevitably withdraws from the region. I’m not sure most understand how fast this moment is approaching.
And so it is that Netanyahu desperately wants to provoke Iran or Syria to strike hard inside his borders to neutralize his domestic opposition. By not responding, Damas and Teheran are actually weakening him.
To believe Russia would protect Israel as unconditionally as the US did, is wishful thinking. Israel shares no border with Russia, hosts no Russian military base, and its Russian nationals could easily be repatriated. It’s economic and geostrategic value is modest once the US are out. If Israel expects to be heard under the emerging configuration, it must first start listening. But for that to happen Netanyahu must go, and so he will.
Just some silly thoughts hopping in my mind….
It was never anyone’s intention to invade Israel, because it’s unnecessary to do so.
Thanks,Ghassan Kadi for the well balanced article, laying out as many of the facts pertinent to the Middle East Peace process as available so far, and with recapitulation.
Interesting in the face of such vast land mass’s, all with many complex, political and historic influence’s merging together at the same time, is the straightforward presentation without too many picture’s and links, giving readers a focus on the array of salient details briefly described. As the world becomes ever more unstable, with confusion and uncertainty, potential catastrophe, potential peace, a good clear cut, helpful intro/continuation.
> “Putin, furthermore, is intent on convincing Israel that it is Russia, and not America, that can give Israel real peace with its Arab neighbours.”
– Israel doesn’t want peace. Israel wnants dominion.
One cannot agree more with the Russian strategic moves in the middle east which are synchronized to be in line with their re-entry as an essential and effective superpower to provide a counter balance to the U.S. on the world stage. In that context, Russia’s ascent to the peace broker role in the MENA proves without a doubt that your vision is fundamentally accurate.
Adding to the aforementioned, the Biden administration in the US seems to be convinced that Obama’s deal with Iran was fair and good, Israel is definitely disturbed and is now actively looking for a safety exit out of a corner she painted for herself during the Trump administration when she succeeded in scuppering the ‘nuclear deal” and was green lighted to claim the occupied Syrian Golan and East Jerusalem as Israeli.
The Russian efforts, exerted in the region and particularly in Syria have succeeded to convince the Israelis that their safety exit is to accept Russia as a reliable and fair peace broker to act as the alternate to the failed policies of the US since the start of the so called “peace process”, which has proven to be a ‘dead end’.
Hence, I can see that if the US and Iran succeed to revive their ‘nuclear deal’, peace between Syria and Israel will become a distinct and much desired probability soon after.
One cannot agree more with the Russian strategic moves in the middle east which are synchronized to be in line with their re-entry as an essential and effective global superpower to provide a counter balance to the U.S. on the world stage. In that context, Russia’s ascent to the peace broker role in the MENA proves without a doubt that your vision is fundamentally accurate.
Adding to the aforementioned, the Biden administration in the US seems to be convinced that Obama’s deal with Iran was fair and good, Israel is definitely disturbed and is now actively looking for a safety exit out of a corner she painted for herself during the Trump administration when she succeeded in scuppering the ‘nuclear deal” and was green lighted to claim the occupied Syrian Golan and East Jerusalem as Israeli.
The Russian efforts, exerted in the region and particularly in Syria have succeeded to convince the Israelis that their safety exit is to accept Russia as a reliable and fair peace broker to act as the alternate to the failed policies of the US since the start of the so called “peace process”, which has proven to be a ‘dead end’.
Hence, I can see that if the US and Iran succeed to revive their ‘nuclear deal’, peace between Syria and Israel will become a distinct and much desired probability soon after.
Na ya dreaming. You are conflating half a dozen song lines with one. When in fact (imo of course) there are many that will progress independently. My best guess for example is that the Israeli residential issues will be sorted internally – eventually. And the inter relations between Turkey Iran Iraq and Saudi Arabia etc will follow their own and varied logic and thats not forgetting either the capacity of outsiders to make trouble or war.
But for Russia collaboration not confrontation seems to be the diplomatic trump card.
” … even Germany and France ought to realize that today’s Russia cannot be associated with Stalin’s-USSR any more than today’s Germany and France can be associated with Hitler and Petain”.
Well, not quite. Russia certainly cannot be associated with Stalin, while Germany can be associated with Hitler. The 1990’s breakup of Yugoslavia saw Germany playing a huge role, openly supporting Catholic Slovenia in 1991, Catholic Croatia in 1992 and Muslims of Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1993 . The Drang Nach Osten policy is very much part of German foreign policy..
” … the current animosity of Eastern European nations towards Russia is not something that can be rationally explained and justified”.
Oh, but it can, if you know all the historical facts. Even though Poland is a Slavic country, it has always been Catholic first and Slavic second. It was and is an obedient tool of the Vatican against Orthodox Slavs. The three Baltic republics are, of course, traditionally anti-Russian, as they themselves are not Slavic countries, having more in common with Germany and Scandinavia. Bulgarians have traditionally backed the “winning” side, as they interpreted it, being German allies in both world wars. Romanians are partially descended from Roman legions which occupied current day Romania, and hence the “Roman” in the name of Romania. Albanians originate from Asia, arriving in Europe in 1043 as Byzantine mercenaries.Slovenes have been under Austrian rule for more than one thousand years, being virtually assimilated into the Germanic culture. Croats have for centuries been part of the Austrian and Austro-Hungarian Empire, and thus traditionally anti-Russian. History is an important element of European politics.
If I can take Wikipedia as a guide, then your statement that “the Albanians did not arrive until 1043” is an assertion that is not well-supported by historians. Do you have a source for your statement ?
Cosimo
Wikipedia cannot be taken as a credible source, being pro-Western in it’s approach. As for Albanians, their claim that they are descendants of Ilyrians is laughable nonsense, as there is not a single historical monument in the Balkans which proves their Illyrian origins. On the contrary, Turkish records confirm that Albanians spoke a mixture of Asian and Arabic languages as far as the mid 16th century. British maps from 1894 and 1904 show Albania and Albanians in Asia in the year 814.
Good analysis. The state of Israel is entirely dependent upon US taxpayer largess- at least $3 billion annually. As pointed out by Michel Chossudovsky, Israel is fully integrated with the Pentagon and a de facto member of NATO. Israel does not act in isolation; most if not all of Israeli attacks on Syria are done in close consultation with the US. It is also important to remember that Israel has not ‘won’ a war since 1973 and was forced out of Lebanon in 2006 by Hezbollah. Despite decades of occupying and stealing Palestinian land and oppressing and murdering the indigenous population, fierce resistance against Israel remains. In any new war, Hezbollah and Iran have sufficient missile arsenals to target any region in Israel, including the Negev Nuclear Research Center in Dimona. No doubt the Israeli military and Pentagon are well aware of this.
Notes
1. Towards a World War III Scenario? The Role of Israel in Triggering an Attack on Iran? By Prof Michel Chossudovsky Global Research, July 30, 2018; Link: https://www.globalresearch.ca/towards-a-world-war-iii-scenario-the-role-of-israel-in-triggering-an-attack-on-iran-2/20584
2. Open-source analysis of Iran’s missile and UAV capabilities and proliferation Apr 20, 2021; Link: https://www.iiss.org/blogs/research-paper/2021/04/iran-missiles-uavs-proliferat
Rumors of Iron Dome’s death greatly exaggerated I despise Israel’s, mad aggression in Syria and elsewhere but analysis of their military must be objective. The missile from Syria was ‘near’ a facility but landed in the desert and as you pointed out it was spent and in free fall. Iron Dome is supposed to discriminates between real vs phantom targets.
Isn’t it possible that it detected the missile, calculated its trajectory, determined it was a falling rock, and chose to ignore it? No damage or casualties were reported. I can hear Netanyahu’s evil cackle as he plans his next attack and anticipates people underestimating Iron Dome.
The headed his article a “battle for Middle East peace”. Battles depend on weapons, but peace is a state of mind. I should like to point out that all the Peoples of the Book — Jews, Christians and Muslims — are interested in the state of mind called Shalom, Peace, Salaam. Their founding fathers did not only include bellicose heroes like Moses, David and Joshua — ready to kill anyone who stood in their way. They also include heroes of peace and reconciliation, starting with Father Abraham who said to his Semitic neighbour, “If you want the West Bank I shall take the East Bank, if you want the East Bank I shall take the West Bank; there is room for both of us in this Land”.
The Jewish precursors of Christianity and Islam also include Rabbi Hillel of Babylon who preached sympathy above ideology, “Do not judge your neighbour until you have walked a mile in his shoes”.
And the most influential Jew of all, Rabbi Yeshuah of Nazareth is known as the Prince of Peace. There are not only Christian Zionists in the Holy Land, there are also Jews for Jesus. And what little I have seen of Muslims in and around the Holy Land impresses me by their forbearance.
“You can do anything with bayonets except sit on them” — Clausewitz
Putin is a builder, a reconciler. So is Assad. So is Nasr’Allah. So are the Guardians of the Islamic Communist Revolution. None of them are military pushovers by any means — but they all show an equally powerful mental drive for peace and understanding.
“Guardians of the Islamic Communist Revolution”
Who is that? Iran?
I’m not sure the Syrians, Hezbollah, and Iran will be content with a little punch on the table if conflict does break out. A great weakness of the Israelis is their panicked fear of death. It seems that Muslims fear her less. The Israelis will have to weigh a possible use of nuclear weapons if they are about to lose because Pakistan or North Korea could make very inconvenient transfers to Iran or even Iran could after a job. by the Hebrew state very very quickly equip themselves with the bomb.
There is no way that was an errant anti-aircraft missile. 100% sure that was an M-6000, a Syrian version of the Badr ballistic missile from Iran. That anti-air missile would have blown up in the air somewhere in Syria. There is also a rumor that Russian e-warfare was used to help the missile get past the Iron Dome. The Dome is not that good against actual ballistic missiles. They fly too fast.
@Robert Lindesay: “The Dome is not that good against actual ballistic missiles. They fly too fast.”
Long ago, when Saddam Hussein was raining missiles on Israel, we were living under an IDF base. I used leave the shelter and go out at night to watch the Patriot (aka Iron Dome) anti-missile missiles take off from that army base up the hill. The Patriots took off with a spectacular flash bang wallop that broke windows in nearby residential buildings; they equally spectacularly failed to intercept Saddam’s Scuds. Fortunately Saddam’s primitive missiles caused very little destruction; an Israeli friend told me the main injuries were from Patriot-broken window glass.
But the myth of Iron Dome (aka Patriot) lives on. Like the myth of Exceptionalism, U$ or Israeli. Last month a young Israeli-American friend starting work in the IDF research industry seemed to doubt my account of Iran’s superb missile performance in Iraq. I hope he will give up drinking soothing syrup now that a demo missile has landed near Dimona. That missile did not “land 30 km off target”; it landed exactly where it was meant to; more important, it landed at exactly the time it was meant to — a message from dead General Soleimani.