I want to express my gratitude to Israel Shamir who kindly sent me this excellent analysis for publication on my blog. I hope that in the future he will allow me to publish more of his articles.
The Saker
——-
The Ukraine in Turmoil by Israel Shamir
It is not much fun to be in Kiev these days. The revolutionary excitement is over, and hopes for new faces, the end of corruption and economic improvement have withered. The Maidan street revolt and the subsequent coup just reshuffled the same marked deck of cards, forever rotating in power.
The new acting President has been an acting prime minister, and a KGB (called “SBU” in Ukrainian) supremo. The new acting prime minister has been a foreign minister. The oligarch most likely to be “elected” President in a few days has been a foreign minister, the head of the state bank, and personal treasurer of two coups, in 2004 (installing Yushchenko) and in 2014 (installing himself). His main competitor, Mme Timoshenko, served as a prime minister for years, until electoral defeat in 2010.
These people had brought Ukraine to its present abject state. In 1991, the Ukraine was richer than Russia, today it is three times poorer because of these people’s mismanagement and theft. Now they plan an old trick: to take loans in Ukraine’s name, pocket the cash and leave the country indebted. They sell state assets to Western companies and ask for NATO to come in and protect the investment.
They play a hard game, brass knuckles and all. The Black Guard, a new SS-like armed force of the neo-nazi Right Sector, prowls the land. They arrest or kill dissidents, activists, journalists. Hundreds of American soldiers, belonging to the “private” company Academi (formerly Blackwater) are spread out in Novorossia, the pro-Russian provinces in the East and South-East. IMF–dictated reforms slashed pensions by half and doubled the housing rents. In the market, US Army rations took the place of local food.
The new Kiev regime had dropped the last pretence of democracy by expelling the Communists from the parliament. This should endear them to the US even more. Expel Communists, apply for NATO, condemn Russia, arrange a gay parade and you may do anything at all, even fry dozens of citizens alive. And so they did.
The harshest repressions were unleashed on industrial Novorossia, as its working class loathes the whole lot of oligarchs and ultra-nationalists. After the blazing inferno of Odessa and a wanton shooting on the streets of Melitopol the two rebellious provinces of Donetsk and Lugansk took up arms and declared their independence from the Kiev regime. They came under fire, but did not surrender. The other six Russian-speaking industrial provinces of Novorossia were quickly cowed. Dnepropetrovsk and Odessa were terrorised by personal army of Mr Kolomoysky; Kharkov was misled by its tricky governor. Russia did not interfere and did not support the rebellion, to the great distress of Russian nationalists in Ukraine and Russia who mutter about “betrayal”. So much for the warlike rhetoric of McCain and Brzezinski. 
Putin’s respect for others’ sovereignty is exasperating. I understand this sounds like a joke, — you hear so much about Putin as a “new Hitler”. As a matter of fact, Putin had legal training before joining the Secret Service. He is a stickler for international law. His Russia has interfered with other states much less than France or England, let alone the US. I asked his senior adviser, Mr Alexei Pushkov, why Russia did not try to influence Ukrainian minds while Kiev buzzed with American and European officials. “We think it is wrong to interfere”, he replied like a good Sunday schoolboy. It is rather likely Putin’s advisors misjudged public sentiment. « The majority of Novorossia’s population does not like the new Kiev regime, but being politically passive and conservative, will submit to its rule”, they estimated. “The rebels are a small bunch of firebrands without mass support, and they can’t be relied upon”, was their view. Accordingly, Putin advised the rebels to postpone the referendum indefinitely, a polite way of saying “drop it”.
They disregarded his request with considerable sang froid and convincingly voted en masse for secession from a collapsing Ukraine. The turnout was much higher than expected, the support for the move near total. As I was told by a Kremlin insider, this development was not foreseen by Putin’s advisers.
Perhaps the advisors had read it right, but three developments had changed the voters’ minds and had sent this placid people to the barricades and the voting booths:
1. The first one was the fiery holocaust of Odessa, where the peaceful and carelessly unarmed demonstrating workers were suddenly attacked by regime’s thugs (the Ukrainian equivalent of Mubarak’s shabab) and corralled into the Trade Unions Headquarters. The building was set on fire, and the far-right pro-regime Black Guard positioned snipers to efficiently pick off would-be escapees. Some fifty, mainly elderly, Russian-speaking workers were burned alive or shot as they rushed for the windows and the doors. This dreadful event was turned into an occasion of merriment and joy by Ukrainian nationalists who referred to their slain compatriots as “fried beetles”. (It is being said that this auto-da-fé was organised by the shock troops of Jewish oligarch and strongman Kolomoysky, who coveted the port of Odessa. Despite his cuddly bear appearance, he is pugnacious and violent person, who offered ten thousand dollars for a captive Russian, dead or alive, and proposed a cool million dollars for the head of Mr Tsarev, a Member of Parliament from Donetsk.)
2. The second was the Mariupol attack on May 9, 2014. This day is commemorated as V-day in Russia and Ukraine (while the West celebrates it on May 8). The Kiev regime forbade all V-day celebrations. In Mariupol, the Black Guard attacked the peaceful and weaponless town, burning down the police headquarters and killing local policemen who had refused to suppress the festive march. Afterwards, Black Guard thugs unleashed armoured vehicles on the streets, killing citizens and destroying property.
The West did not voice any protest; Nuland and Merkel weren’t horrified by this mass murder, as they were by Yanukovich’s timid attempts to control crowds. The people of these two provinces felt abandoned; they understood that nobody was going to protect and save them but themselves, and went off to vote.
3. The third development was, bizarrely, the Eurovision jury choice of Austrian transvestite Conchita Wurst for a winner of its song contest. The sound-minded Novorossians decided they want no part of such a Europe.
Actually, the people of Europe do not want it either: it transpired that the majority of British viewers preferred a Polish duo, Donatan & Cleo, with its We Are Slavic. Donatan is half Russian, and has courted controversy in the past extolling the virtues of pan-Slavism and the achievements of the Red Army, says the Independent. The politically correct judges of the jury preferred to “celebrate tolerance”, the dominant paradigm imposed upon Europe. This is the second transvestite to win this very political contest; the first one was Israeli singer Dana International. Such obsession with re-gendering did not go down well with Russians and/or Ukrainians.
The Russians have readjusted their sights, but they do not intend to bring their troops into the two rebel republics, unless dramatic developments should force them.
Russian plans
Imagine: you are dressed up for a night on Broadway, but your neighbours are involved in a vicious quarrel, and you have to gun up and deal with the trouble instead of enjoying a show, and a dinner, and perhaps a date. This was Putin’s position regarding the Ukrainian turmoil.
A few months ago, Russia had made a huge effort to become, and to be seen as, a very civilised European state of the first magnitude. This was the message of the Sochi Olympic games: to re-brand, even re-invent Russia, just as Peter the Great once had, as part of the First World; an amazing country of strong European tradition, of Leo Tolstoy and Malevich, of Tchaikovsky and Diaghilev, the land of arts, of daring social reform, of technical achievements, of modernity and beyond — the Russia of Natasha Rostova riding a Sikorsky ‘copter. Putin spent $60 b to broadcast this image.
The old fox Henry Kissinger wisely said:
Putin spent $60 billion on the Olympics. They had opening and closing ceremonies, trying to show Russia as a normal progressive state. So it isn’t possible that he, three days later, would voluntarily start an assault on Ukraine. There is no doubt that… at all times he wanted Ukraine in a subordinate position. And at all times, every senior Russian that I’ve ever met, including dissidents like Solzhenitsyn and Brodsky, looked at Ukraine as part of the Russian heritage. But I don’t think he had planned to bring it to a head now.
However, Washington hawks decided to do whatever it takes to keep Russia out in the cold. They were afraid of this image of “a normal progressive state” as such Russia would render NATO irrelevant and undermine European dependence on the US. They were adamant about retaining their hegemony, shattered as it was by the Syrian confrontation. They attacked Russian positions in the Ukraine and arranged a violent coup, installing a viciously anti-Russian regime supported by football fans and neo-Nazis, paid for by Jewish oligarchs and American taxpayers. The victors banned the Russian language and prepared to void treaties with Russia regarding its Crimean naval base at Sebastopol on the Black Sea. This base was to become a great new NATO base, controlling the Black Sea and threatening Russia.
Putin had to deal quickly and so he did, by accepting the Crimean people’s request to join Russian Federation. This dealt with the immediate problem of the base, but the problem of Ukraine remained.
The Ukraine is not a foreign entity to Russians, it is the western half of Russia. It was artificially separated from the rest in 1991, at the collapse of the USSR. The people of the two parts are interconnected by family, culture and blood ties; their economies are intricately connected. While a separate viable Ukrainian state is a possibility, an “independent” Ukrainian state hostile to Russia is not viable and can’t be tolerated by any Russian ruler. And this for military as well as for cultural reasons: if Hitler had begun the war against Russia from its present border, he would have taken Stalingrad in two days and would have destroyed Russia in a week.
A more pro-active Russian ruler would have sent troops to Kiev a long time ago. Thus did Czar Alexis when the Poles, Cossacks and Tatars argued for it in 17th century. So also did Czar Peter the Great, when the Swedes occupied it in the 18th century. So did Lenin, when the Germans set up the Protectorate of Ukraine (he called its establishment “the obscene peace”). So did Stalin, when the Germans occupied the Ukraine in 1941.
Putin still hopes to settle the problem by peaceful means, relying upon the popular support of the Ukrainian people. Actually, before the Crimean takeover, the majority of Ukrainians (and near all Novorossians) overwhelmingly supported some sort of union with Russia. Otherwise, the Kiev coup would not have been necessary. The forced Crimean takeover seriously undermined Russian appeal. The people of Ukraine did not like it. This was foreseen by the Kremlin, but they had to accept Crimea for a few reasons. Firstly, a loss of Sevastopol naval base to NATO was a too horrible of an alternative to contemplate. Secondly, the Russian people would not understand if Putin were to refuse the suit of the Crimeans.
The Washington hawks still hope to force Putin to intervene militarily, as it would give them the opportunity to isolate Russia, turn it into a monster pariah state, beef up defence spending and set Europe and Russia against each other. They do not care about Ukraine and Ukrainians, but use them as pretext to attain geopolitical goals.
The Europeans would like to fleece Ukraine; to import its men as “illegal” workers and its women as prostitutes, to strip assets, to colonise. They did it with Moldova, a little sister of Ukraine, the most miserable ex-Soviet Republic. As for Russia, the EU would not mind taking it down a notch, so they would not act so grandly. But the EU is not fervent about it. Hence, the difference in attitudes.
Putin would prefer to continue with his modernisation of Russia. The country needs it badly. The infrastructure lags twenty or thirty years behind the West. Tired by this backwardness, young Russians often prefer to move to the West, and this brain drain causes much damage to Russia while enriching the West. Even Google is a result of this brain drain, for Sergey Brin is a Russian immigrant as well. So are hundreds of thousands of Russian scientists and artists manning every Western lab, theatre and orchestra. Political liberalisation is not enough: the young people want good roads, good schools and a quality of life comparable to the West. This is what Putin intends to deliver.
He is doing a fine job of it. Moscow now has free bikes and Wi-Fi in the parks like every Western European city. Trains have been upgraded. Hundreds of thousands of apartments are being built, even more than during the Soviet era. Salaries and pensions have increased seven-to-tenfold in the past decade. Russia is still shabby, but it is on the right track. Putin wants to continue this modernisation.
As for the Ukraine and other ex-Soviet states, Putin would prefer they retain their independence, be friendly and work at a leisurely pace towards integration a la the European Union. He does not dream of a new empire. He would reject such a proposal, as it would delay his modernisation plans.
If the beastly neocons would not have forced his hand by expelling the legitimate president of Ukraine and installing their puppets, the world might have enjoyed a long spell of peace. But then the western military alliance under the US leadership would fall into abeyance, US military industries would lose out, and US hegemony would evaporate. Peace is not good for the US military and hegemony-creating media machine. So dreams of peace in our lifetime are likely to remain just dreams.
What will Putin do?
Putin will try to avoid sending in troops as long as possible. He will have to protect the two splinter provinces, but this can be done with remote support, the way the US supports the rebels in Syria, without ‘boots on the ground’. Unless serious bloodshed on a large scale should occur, Russian troops will just stand by, staring down the Black Guard and other pro-regime forces.
Putin will try to find an arrangement with the West for sharing authority, influence and economic involvement in the failed state. This can be done through federalisation, or by means of coalition government, or even partition. The Russian-speaking provinces of Novorossia are those of Kharkov (industry), Nikolayev (ship-building), Odessa (harbour), Donetsk and Lugansk (mines and industry), Dnepropetrovsk (missiles and high-tech), Zaporozhe (steel), Kherson (water for Crimea and ship-building), all of them established, built and populated by Russians. They could secede from Ukraine and form an independent Novorossia, a mid-sized state, but still bigger than some neighbouring states. This state could join the Union State of Russia and Belarus, and/or the Customs Union led by Russia. The rump Ukraine could manage as it sees fit until it decides whether or not to join its Slavic sisters in the East. Such a set up would produce two rather cohesive and homogeneous states.
Another possibility (much less likely at this moment) is a three-way division of the failed Ukraine: Novorossia, Ukraine proper, and Galicia&Volyn. In such a case, Novorossia would be strongly pro-Russian, Ukraine would be neutral, and Galicia strongly pro-Western.
The EU could accept this, but the US probably would not agree to any power-sharing in the Ukraine. In the ensuing tug-of-war, one of two winners will emerge. If Europe and the US drift apart, Russia wins. If Russia accepts a pro-Western positioning of practically all of Ukraine, the US wins. The tug-of-war could snap and cause all-out war, with many participants and a possible use of nuclear weapons. This is a game of chicken; the one with stronger nerves and less imagination will remain on the track.
Pro and Contra
It is too early to predict who will win in the forthcoming confrontation. For the Russian president, it is extremely tempting to take all of Ukraine or at least Novorossia, but it is not an easy task, and one likely to cause much hostility from the Western powers.
With Ukraine incorporated, Russian recovery from 1991 would be completed, its strength doubled, its security ensured and a grave danger removed. Russia would become great again. People would venerate Putin as Gatherer of Russian Lands.
However, Russian efforts to appear as a modern peaceful progressive state would have been wasted; it would be seen as an aggressor and expelled from international bodies. Sanctions will bite; high tech imports may be banned, as in the Soviet days. The Russian elites are reluctant to jeopardise their good life. The Russian military just recently began its modernisation and is not keen to fight yet, perhaps not for another ten years. But if they feel cornered, if NATO moves into Eastern Ukraine, they will fight all the same.
Some Russian politicians and observers believe that Ukraine is a basket case; its problems would be too expensive to fix. This assessment has a ‘sour grapes’ aftertaste, but it is widespread. An interesting new voice on the web, The Saker, promotes this view. “Let the EU and the US provide for the Ukrainians, they will come back to Mother Russia when hungry”, he says. The problem is, they will not be allowed to reconsider. The junta did not seize power violently in order to lose it at the ballot box.
Besides, Ukraine is not in such bad shape as some people claim. Yes, it would cost trillions to turn it into a Germany or France, but that’s not necessary. Ukraine can reach the Russian level of development very quickly –- in union with Russia. Under the EC-IMF-NATO, Ukraine will become a basket case, if it’s not already. The same is true for all East European ex-Soviet states: they can modestly prosper with Russia, as Belarus and Finland do, or suffer depopulation, unemployment, poverty with Europe and NATO and against Russia, vide Latvia, Hungary, Moldova, Georgia. It is in Ukrainian interests to join Russia in some framework; Ukrainians understand that; for this reason they will not be allowed to have democratic elections.
Simmering Novorossia has a potential to change the game. If Russian troops don’t come in, Novorossian rebels may beat off the Kiev offensive and embark on a counter-offensive to regain the whole of the country, despite Putin’s pacifying entreaties. Then, in a full-blown civil war, the Ukraine will hammer out its destiny.
On a personal level, Putin faces a hard choice. Russian nationalists will not forgive him if he surrenders Ukraine without a fight. The US and EU threaten the very life of the Russian president, as their sanctions are hurting Putin’s close associates, encouraging them to get rid of or even assassinate the President and improve their relations with the mighty West. War may come at any time, as it came twice during the last century – though Russia tried to avoid it both times. Putin wants to postpone it, at the very least, but not at any price.
His is not an easy choice. As Russia procrastinates, as the US doubles the risks, the world draws nearer to the nuclear abyss. Who will chicken out?
Israel Shamir can be reached at adam@israelshamir.net
(Language editing by Ken Freeland)
This significant announcement seems to have gotten very little attention in the Anglosphere.
On 13 May 2014 the Coordination Council of the “South-East” Movement approved and published the following Resolution on independence.
(Sources: Comm.Party RF,
Завтра)
RESOLUTION
On the protection of sovereignty and the organization of state administration of the Donetsk and Lughansk People’s Republics.
Following the referendum held on 11 May 2014 and the declaration of results in the Donetsk and Lughansk regions the Coordination Council of the social movement “South-East” considers it necessary to combine the efforts of all associated organizations and of all residents of the regions to protect the will of the citizens. For this we consider it essential to carry out in the near future the following actions:
1. In the political domain:
1.1 Pass acts to issue the Declarations of Independence of the Donetsk and Lughansk People’s Republics (henceforth: DPR, LPR).
1.2 Invite other regions (Oblasts) of Ukraine to restore statehood on the basis of sovereignty of the people and federalism by the establishment of the Federal Republic of Novorussia (henceforth: Novorussia).
1.3 Prepare a Federal Treaty of DPR and LPR and a Constitution of Novorussia to be subsequently submitted for public discussion.
1.4 Establish a working group under the leadership of Oleg Tsarev to prepare the Federal Treaty between the Lughansk and Donetsk Republics, and, in addition, for the accession of other territories into Novorussia.
1.5 Request from Russia and Belarus acceptance into the Union State and from Kazakhstan acceptance into the Common Customs Area.
1.6 Declare it unacceptable for DPR and LPR to sign the European Union Association Agreement.
1.7 Present to Russia and the other states in the UN Security Council, as well as to OSCE, demands for sanctions to be imposed on the Kiev junta in order to stop the genocide against the people of DPR and LPR.
1.8 Demand that the Supreme Rada of Ukraine terminate the counter-insurgency operations and withdraw the armed forces of the Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of the Interior from the territory of DPR and LPR.
(continues…)
(…continued)
2. In the area of state construction realize the following:
2.1 Pass acts for the Declaration of Independence of LPR and DPR.
2.2 Establish the parliaments of LPR and DPR.
2.3 Establish by parliamentary resolution functioning governments comprised of the ministries of defence, security, home affairs, foreign affairs, finance, taxation, economics and trade, health-care, education, agriculture, plus border, customs, veterinary and sanitary services. Appoint a Chief Prosecutor and establish Supreme Courts. Shut down all authorities of Ukraine in the territory of DPR and LPR.
2.4 Declare the boundaries of DPR and LPR to be the state borders of the republics. Assume responsibility for the crossing points on the Russia-Ukraine border under the corresponding DPR and LPR authorities.
2.5 Give the armed forces of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence and Ministry of the Interior 24 hours to either swear allegiance to DPR and LPR or else resign their position, surrender their weapons and vacate the territory.
2.6 Declare illegal all armed groups which are present in the territory of DPR and LPR without the permission thereof. Any operations by the armed forces of Ukraine are to be classified as a military aggression aimed at eliminating the people of the Donetsk and Lughansk republics (genocide). Issue an ultimatum to the Supreme Rada of Ukraine and personally to the commander of each armed group to halt their invasion, immediately cease combat operations and within 24 hours withdraw their forces from the territory of DPR and LPR (excluding those who voluntarily transferred to their command). After this time all illegal armed groups will be classified as saboteurs and terrorists. In addition, commence prosecution of the officials of the Kiev junta on charges of crimes against humanity. Impose restrictions on the use of the airspace of DPR and LPR by aircraft of the armed forces of Ukraine.
2.7 Appoint representatives to the Donetsk and Lughansk branches of the National Bank of Ukraine with authority over their operations.
3. In the economic sphere:
3.1 All tax revenues of the Ukrainian Ministry of Finance to be transferred to the treasury of DPR and LPR to finance their approved budget obligations.
3.2 Confirm free trade and visa-free travel with Russia and other CIS states.
3.3 Removal of customs control on the border with Russia.
3.4 Request from Russia representatives of the veterinary authorities to establish veterinary and phytosanitary control of goods produced for export within the territory of the Customs Union.
3.5 Allow use of the Rouble as an accepted currency alongside the Hryvnia. Allow Russian credit institutes and insurance companies to open branches. Appoint a Russian bank to service the Government’s rouble-denominated fiscal operations. Subsidiaries and branches of Russian State banks choosing not to operate in the new jurisdiction will be organized under the nominated Bank.
3.6 Nationalize the Ukrainian state’s property.
3.7 Impose sanctions (freezing accounts and assets, refusing entry) against individuals suspected of crimes against the people of DPR and LPR. Appoint temporary management to any businesses owned by them. Re-direct their revenues into the republics’ budgets.
3.8 Pass a resolution to prevent discrimination against goods supplied to Russia vis-a-vis Russian-produced goods, including purchases by the State and state-owned corporations.
3.9 Introduce a ban on extraction of shale gas.
4. Establishment of the federal state:
4.1 Draw up a federal treaty between DPR and LPR including the adoption of the Constitution of Novorussia, on the basis of which the federal authorities will be established.
4.2 Conduct the presidential and parliamentary elections of Novorussia as the basis for establishing a federal government, joint armed forces, law-enforcement and fiscal systems.
Keep your eye on Rinat Akhmetov. He is a pivotal player in Donbass, with consequences for Ukraine, Novorussia, Russia, and perhaps the rest of the world.
Akhmetov is the so-called “oligarch” who controls Metinvest, one of the world’s largest mining and steel operations. He is often said to be the richest person in (what was) Ukraine.
After the big shoot-out in Mariupol (second largest city in Donetsk oblast, location of his companies Ilyichsteel and Azovstal) between the South-East self-defense forces and the attacking private army “Dniepr” of another “oligarch”, Kolomoisky of Dnepropetrovsk (who evidently ordered the Odessa massacre), Akhmetov announced that his “workers” would patrol the city to maintain order.
Akhmetov’s primary concern is, of course, his business empire. He is opposed to independence for Donbass, as the inevitable sanctions from the “international [financial] community” would ruin his business. He has called for constitutional change leading to “decentralization of power“.
Meanwhile yurasumy’s blog states that Akhmetov, like all the other oligarchs, is “supporting the junta“. Furthermore, Alexander Borodai, the Prime Minister of Novorussia (whose legitimacy is no less than that of his counterpart in Kiev) has publicly warned that the property of oligarchs who don’t play ball could be “nationalized“.
In 2009 Akhmetov supported the election campaign of now exiled president Yanukovych (according to Fursov). Of course, the political loyalty of an oligarch can turn with the wind, as Tymoshenko has demonstrated repeatedly.
So Akhmetov is in a tricky position. His profits depend on keeping in with Kiev et al, while his physical assets (and ass) are heavily tied down in Donbass/Novorussia.
Pro-Kiev forces in Kramatorsk city are reported to be bombing residential areas with artillery and mortars.
@ New Insight said… 18 May, 2014 19:08
First, let me repost my comment from the Saker’s “I love the BBC!”
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/05/i-love-bbc.html
Anonymous said…
@ dusty said… 17 May, 2014 20:48
From my historical point of view (e.g. Solidarity movement in Poland and Martial Law with Polish army tanks on streets) any civil-patrols together with militia/police/gestapo (local secret police) is concocted to quell independence/freedom(s) of civilians/denizens.
My point of view that MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) is a bullshit was proved by another blogger:
http://arbaletfire.livejournal.com/2
Quote (after yandex translation and my corrections):
At this time (12:30 GMT) lull. In Donetsk until all is quiet.
(13:30 GMT) Sorry missed: Renat Akhmetov left the Donetsk region, he is trying to organize in Donetsk squad of loyal employees of their enterprises, and he also puts pressure on those in doubt of threats of firing workers, like those in Mariupol.
Before leaving, increased security, and distributed new machines, included mercenaries in protection squads.
He gave the order to shoot at people to death if they tried to invade his territory.
He called denizens of Donetsk who are against Kiev junta “separatists” who should be destroyed.
The geek-capitalist set up protection comprise of six gunmen for his mother house. Akhmetov organizes with the support of some of the regionals a counterrevolution, he does not need any DND, neither Novorosia, he needs vassals and slaves in his personal state.
So much for the much-vaunted Akhmetov.
In a short time, with devastating energy crisis looming, the Europeans and the Americans will have other things to think….
Thanks for the insightful article with food for thought. I appreciate the emphasis on the real financial viability of Novorussia, that it is not the albatross that the Saker made it out to be recently (as opposed to articles a month ago when the Novorussia region was depicted as key to the financial viability of any kind of Ukrainian state that might emerge out of this).
That Putin too is reacting to partially unforeseen events, and is in a bind just as much as the leaders of Kiev, seems to me a corrective to the recent tone of Saker articles in which Putin is often depicted as having all things well in hand.
All systems have their factions. Much as Obama in-advisably drew a red line in Syria that some CIA factions used to force his hand; so too, Putin has drawn a red line “protection of Russian people” that factions seek to use to force his hand. While in Syria Putin helped Obama out, in Ukraine there is no one offering assistance to Putin. So it will fall to the people of that region to do so themselves. Or not. What should be feared most by all concerned is a half-hearted attempt that drags out the bloodshed/fighting and drags in more outside involvement.
A very moving music video came out a week or two ago from an anonymous artist. It expresses how Ukraine has been torn apart by predators from outside who started a war in which the Slavs fight against themselves.
The song has subtitles in English:
What has become of the Slavic people / Святая Русь братьям-славянам
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dy-LywH7vJ4
Always good to read what Israel Shamir has to say. An interesting writer.
Dear The Saker,
I read this earlier today and was waiting for you to post an update on Ukraine to send it to you as he refers to you in the article.
Great minds think alike!
Rgds,
Veritas
Shooting at the emergency vehicle in Mariupol
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=KK2YYaeIwPc
http://dok-zlo.livejournal.com/1470742.html
The first link is not working without registration, but the second link does (two videos)
The more Putin will be cornered the more likely he will understand that there is no future for Russia in the West -at this historical juncture at least.And therein lies the big chance for the rest of the world to weaken and finish of the West and its hegemonic dreams.Now is coming a unique chance ,the first in centuries thus the importance of his visit to China and the closer coordination with Iran and the BRICS.Assymetric warfare should be the focus of future movements e.g discarding the $$ and the euros and moving to an economy based on a money basket, the introduction of the Globus system in place of gsm .A pool of technology knowhow between China,Russia,Iran will render obsolete the over reliance on western technologies.There are lots of ways to harm the West starting by posing a real threat to the zionist entity existence,empowering more Syria,rendering the exit from Afghanistan more costly and dangerous.Timid movements aimed at gaining public opinion in the West frankly is to be considered from now on a short sighted strategy as the public opinion in the west is more and more hostage of totalitarian regimes .Therefore Russia should rely more on strengthening the will of its own people and nothing else because this is a survival struggle for the russian nation.A de-globalisation policy will surely enhance the Kremlin hand.As for being shut out of international bodies this is impossible for the exit of Russia would mean the kiss of death for the UN,WTO and all this bodies created to strengthen the hand of the West.
http://buzz.blogger.com/2014/02/making-it-easier-to-manage-pages-on.html and go to mange your widgets allows you to set up share buttons so your followers can repost, saker.
Now, let me comment latest post of Mr. Shamir. I’m furious, both at him, and The Saker.
1) Mr. Shamir didn’t say anything new from what I read in Russian, English, Saker readers’ comments and mine. He simply put together aptly what needed some efforts to get the issues know.
2) HE Mr. Putin is not a God and his advisers can make mistakes like many others. But where the hell where Russian secret services? Did they provide those advisers with the data Putin would like to read? The Saker, you wrote about it in the context of your former job recently. I doubt it.
3) If Russian oligarch friends of Mr. Putin had revealed a slightest hint of thinking about removing Mr. Putin (the more assassination!) from the post of President of RF they would be eliminated the same night. I believe in it as present politics of Russia is a game of highest bids in the last few hundred years if not whole millenia.
4) M.r Shamir contradicts himself in neighboring paragraphs. He writes – “The junta did not seize power violently in order to lose it at the ballot box”. In the second to next paragraph he writes – “Then, in a full-blown civil war, the Ukraine will hammer out its destiny. “ My question – and who would allowed them to do it? Why he assume victory for anti-junta forces? Would US allow it to happen? Nonsense!
Please, tell me, why intelligent people like Shamir or Saker do not use their reason, minds, brains to based their analyses on cold facts (politician behaviors, geopolitic conditions, etc), but instead turns to wishful thinkings and speculations what it were good for Russia if some conditions were met (and which will NEVER EVER will be met”)?
Russia, not Mr. Putin, has fully open Asiatic direction, there are preliminary talks about Second Silk Road (it does not have to start in Hamburg!), Russia can sold China technology for fighter engines asking in return for investments in technologies which EU and the US transfered to China together with production resources, etc.
Mr. Putin, not Russia this time, made gigantic blunder not taking Ukraine as a whole. I wrote already – Russia would rise from the Western sanctions, so the USA can start producing commodities which she exported to India, China, and many other countries in two years.
I said many things which perhaps should be put in broader context or to be explained further but the words you’ll find in others’ commentaries.
And the last question. Why The Saker didn’t make Igor Strelkov statement a headline yesterday as it was very important for whole Novorossyia.
An excellent article Saker. Thank you for this. Hope you guys keep sharing posts and give us the good stuff.
He has corroborated much of what you say. And I regret having questioned your judgement.
Mindfriedo
Ukies start to use new APC
With trellis similar to those used by NATO in Afghanistan and Iraq and attached to Bradley APCs and other light armor. Take care watching the film below.
GrahamWPhillips @GrahamWP_UK · 1 min
East of #Slavyansk, the Ukraine army have added further military vehicles as the ‘Battle of Slavyansk’ escalates – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H07hD6CP8AA
In a short time, with devastating energy crisis looming, the Europeans and the Americans will have other things to think….
Not to worry, the Americans will liquify and export Unicorn farts to replace Russian gas.
At least that has to be the position of the idiots who think the US, a net importer of natural gas (supplied by Canada and Mecio), can somehow afford to export to Europe.
You have to wonder if they actually believe this delusional nonsense. I am afraid that at least some of them do though.
Bulletin. Republic, on the seventh day, 18.05.
From Joe (Ян) arbaletfire
http://arbaletfire.livejournal.com/2014/05/18/
Last entries (yandex translation/:
UPD 17: 21:30 (GMT) On unspecified information in Melitopol were unloaded several trucks of soldiers and armoured vehicles. Armoured vehicles principally new modification.
UPD 18; 21:35 (GMT) In the Eastern district an armed clash (Slavyansk).
UPD 19: 21:40 (Moscow time) At the BAS intermittent shooting (Slavyansk).
UPD 20: 21:45 (Moscow time) Mariupol, began a movement on the outskirts and in the border areas.
UPD 21: 22:20 (GMT) In Krasnyy Liman were two explosions, presumably in the city centre, the hotel “Zarya”.
UPD 22: during the shelling of Kramatorsk suffered: treatment facilities (water but there already), EMSS, Starokramatorsk machine-building plant, objects of public importance.
UPD 23: 22:45 (GMT) On the Karachun Mountain again began to work artillery. In the outskirts of Kramatorsk observed movement around aerodrome.
UPD 24: 23:00 (GMT) Malacara, two bombs exploded, heard the work of the machine gun from Kramatorsk. In the area of Mashmet two white the signaling.
UPD 25: 23:05 (MSK) Green signaling with Kramatorsk in the direction of Slavyansk.
UPD 26: 23:15 (GMT) From the Karachun Mountain towards Semenovka villages were fired five shots. It may be heavy artillery and Nona (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2S9_Nona).
UPD 27: 23:20 (GMT) Heavy artillery continues, the sounds of explosions given even in the Red river Estuary.
UPD 28: 23:40 (Moscow time) At St. Andrew post gained battalion mortars.
UPD 29: 23:50 (GMT) the Shelling stopped, the reason comes from Ukies – bush hinders (according to radio interception)
By the way, radio Amateurs have scanners, frequency of ukrepov 433/100 (targeting) 433/200 433/300 433/375 turntables – 125/AM 126/AM, 128/500 (transport, drying, etc).
UPD 30: 00:00 (GMT) On the block-post at the turn to Liman goes a battle. Artem was fired upon by cuckoo (military, a sniper whose firing position is located in a tree -> https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/%D0%BA%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%83%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0.
Part 2 of Bulletin, Republic, on the seventh day, 18.05.
UPD 31: 00:10 (Moscow time) On the station square and the Andreevka fired signal flares.
UPD 32: 00:15 (GMT) In the area of Kramatorsk aerodrome machine-gun shooting.
UPD 33: 00:20 (GMT) From Semenovka villages, Resorts, Artem machine-gun and automatic fire.
UPD 34: 00:25 (MSK) Red-Limansky turn intensive shooting, works KPVT (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KPVT). From Kramatorsk aerodrome heard the battle.
UPD 35: 00:35 (GMT) In Malacara (Малочары), side Cherevkovo, goes shooting, from Malakar start shooting KPVT. The battle is also on the Eastern side of Semenovka villages.
UPD
And what did Igor Strelkov say yesterday? Please, anonymous tell us !
Israel Shamir said: “On a personal level, Putin faces a hard choice. Russian nationalists will not forgive him if he surrenders Ukraine without a fight.”
I think this is exactly what Saker does not want to include in his analysis. I am not even a Russian, but I would be extremely angry if Putin surrenders Ukraine without a fight!
@New Insight
Thanks for the info.
Re Akhmetov, here are some interesting quotes by him and other oligarchs:
http://johnhelmer.net/?p=10778
@ Anon 18 May, 2014 21:13
Please go to comment page of the Saker’s “I love the BBC!”
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/05/i-love-bbc.html
Search for Strielkov or Strelkov.
I may understand 60-80% what Strelkov said but I can’t make transcript. Translation yes, but not transcript.
Anybody knowing Russian or knowing the place the statement was published is welcome!
The statement should be known to the Western readers as it shed more lights onto ongoing events in Eastern Ukraine. More than Mr. Shamir. (I’m sorry I couldn’t help. ;-) )
@ Anonymous
18 May, 2014 21:13
> Israel Shamir said: “On a personal level, Putin faces a hard choice. Russian nationalists will not forgive him if he surrenders Ukraine without a fight.”
But Russian President just did that!
Let’s do not overestimate his ability to play chess with the US.
What I see now is Mr Putin at the chessboard like a fair player with his opponent’s big fist under Putin’s nose.
Russian chess game with barbarian(s).
What a shit!
Pedro de Hungria says –
Vladimir Putin will wait until after big meeting in China (May 20) to make Russia-China Economic-Political-Military axis and EU elections May 22-25 where anti-establishment parties of both Right and Left are now expected to make serious gains and even outright victories from EU population’s protest vote against current economic and foreign policy. In one more week we shall know what Putin’s going to do. So far, he has played his cards close to the vest. After next week, if Obama and Co. don’t stop the Nazi insanity in the Ukraine, Putin will have to act.
The solution to this UA problem is simple, de-dollarise the world:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-13/russia-holds-de-dollarization-meeting-china-iran-willing-drop-usd-bilateral-trade
The UA oligarch will turn their coats faster than everybody else, the junta became powerless and the WEST will be on its knees and as the bonus, they will be do whatever the BRICS will want from them.
Oracle
@ Pedro de Hungria said…
18 May, 2014 21:36
Agreed.
But do not forget that countries do not have friends, only common interests. And China is rather a single player, according to the old Mao saying of “long march”. Chinese do not have to agreed to Russian images and visions… At least to all of them (why do you think gas/oil accords with Russia drag on so long?)
New Insight,
Thank you for all the material you posted. It was all most informative.
But oh, that video. Divide et impera, oh please NOT!!!
Anomymous 19:48
Your post directly after New Insight’s video is a perfect follow-up to it. And oh-so-right.
Pedro de Hungria 21:36
Dear God, I hope so!
Saker,
Please, what are your current thoughts on Strelkov, Akhmetov, and Putin? I’m admittedly more focused on the human suffering and my information is obviously limited but none of this looks very good.
For those who are frustrated that Vladimir Putin has not responded militarily (and I feel this way too at times) perhaps there is something really important going on here, world changing in fact, that is hard to grasp.
We are so used to seeing American “shock and awe” impressed into service for America to get its way that we expect the same from VVP.
But do Europeans really want war on their continent to advance the interests of American Oligarchs?
Do they want to jeopardise their own economies for the same purpose?
And the longer VVP can hold off the realization that this is what Ukraine is all about American interests and not European ones will grow.
Ukraine is a nightmare (American malfeasance created it)and VVP does not want to own the blame, he wants West Europeans to realize that NATO is not in their interest and America is not the benevolent protector of peace but a rogue nation that bullies everyone who does not conform to their will and purpose.
That’s the prize if places like Slavyansk can hold out on their own against the monster that has been unleashed against them.
Latest films from GrahamWPhillips
Quote – “Have been reports Ukraine’s president Turchynov views tonight as the ‘decisive night’ of what he calls the ‘ATO'”
Keep watching the site:
https://twitter.com/GrahamWP_UK
Good analysis but I miss there accurancy. That´s what I like about your writing, Saker. You are much more careful with facts (and therefore more convincing and believable).
Unrelated: I found an article about Putin and how he was perceived by his collegues in Finland during 90s. I wasn´t anything near to Putin-Fan in the past, but the more I read about him the more I´m convinced he has something very rare for politician – that´s combination of character, integrity, determination and intelligence.
http://www2.hs.fi/english/archive/thisweek/02022000.html
@ Andrei said… 18 May, 2014 21:53
Andrei, anything which jeopardize American plan will be ruthlessly torpedoed. You bet.
BTW. All oligarchs works together American, Britich, Russian, Ukrainian, etc. Paraphrasing “Workers of the world, unite!” – one may say – Oligarchs of the world, unite! And they did so!
You wrote –
Ukraine is a nightmare (American malfeasance created it)and VVP does not want to own the blame, he wants West Europeans to realize that NATO is not in their interest and America is not the benevolent protector of peace but a rogue nation that bullies everyone who does not conform to their will and purpose.
Now let me quote Paul Craig Roberts from August 19, 2008
Are You Ready for Nuclear War?
http://www.counterpunch.org/2008/08/19/are-you-ready-for-nuclear-war/
Back during the Nixon years, my Ph.D. dissertation chairman, Warren Nutter, was Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs. One day in his Pentagon office I asked him how the US government got foreign governments to do what the US wanted. “Money,” he replied.
“You mean foreign aid?” I asked.
“No,” he replied, “we just buy the leaders with money.”
It wasn’t a policy he had implemented. He inherited it and, although the policy rankled with him, he could do nothing about it. Nutter believed in persuasion and that if you could not persuade people, you did not have a policy.
Nutter did not mean merely third world potentates were bought. He meant the leaders of England, France, Germany, Italy, all the allies everywhere were bought and paid for.
Sorry Andrei but today only military power accounts and Putin should know that. I know that Russians know too – the later the war will start the better chance for victory as not all Russian military was yet modernized. But Ukraine is such a special place that the “chicken game” of Mr. Shamir does not play well for Russians.
Sorry Andrei but today only military power accounts and Putin should know that. I know that Russians know too
We are about to find out if that is true I suspect.
We have reached a seminal moment in human history, could be we are in for an apocalyptic war – who knows, not me or you and thats a fact.
The US Military is huge, it overwhelms just about the rest of the worlds military might combined.
But what has it achieved in Afghanistan or Iraq?
But the USA is morally, spiritually and financially bankrupt borrowing a billion dollars a day – something is going to break in the very near future.
All I know is that the world is going to be a very different place very soon
Latest from Igor Strelkov
http://rusvesna.su/news/1400451335
05/19/2014 – 2:15
Igor Strelkov: enemy losses were 100 people and 10 pieces of equipment
/yandex translation + corrections/
“And now today summary.
Early this morning a checkpoint of the enemy in the region i.e. the Malinovka was attacked from two sides simultaneously. At the same time was fired upon from mortars and many granade launchers placed in close distance. 2 BTR burned on the spot, the checkpoint was completely destroyed. The enemy suffered heavy losses in manpower. Our losses – 1 wounded.
Around noon, we moved mortars and fired grove in the area of road Sloviansk-Kramatorsk, where integrated units of NatGuards were located, 25-th and 95-th airmobile brigades and another roadblock. In the grove – three points of fire. It was perfectly visible with binoculars, how many soldiers started to scatter in panic (the grove was small – 400 x 50 metres). We released 60 shells 82-mm on the grove and 10 shells from “Nona” on the block. We have sent 6 shells on artillery positions on the opposite slope of Mount Karachun.
Later on helicopters were set on the Mount Karachun and roadblock to transport the wounded.
Closer to the evening our intelligence unit received information about the location of the enemy in Seleznevka (city outskirts, 2 km North of Semenovka villages). Recon group secretly entered the village and in quick battle killed 6 NatGuard soldiers (black plate, helmets painted with “right sector” slogans and emblems), a dozen more wounded. KAMAZ truck was burned too.
All, according to the radio, today losses of the enemy killed and wounded amounted over 100 people, 3 BTR were destroyed, radio station on GAZ-66 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GAZ-66) and 2 trucks.
According to the information from population, all killed enemy is put in plastic boxes and drive to Izyum, where the corpses already clogged all the morgues – fridges are full.
After dark, the enemy leads disturbing fire on our position from howitzers and mortars.
Just got word that our econnaissance units attacked BAS checkpoint. 1 BMP was destroyed by one shot from a Fly (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RPG-18). Several NatGuardsmen killed or wounded were pulled out.
The enemy hewed the roadblock, when we left, from howitzers… But there’s no one”.
P. S. About big losses of the enemy:
“In the grove people were filled, like herrings in a barrel. They went down in numbers and made heaps. It was the same in Malinovka – all were placed tight”.
Interesting. Many of the comments appear to share this view:
When in panic, fear or doubt, run in circles, scream and shout.
Time to open a beer, relax and take another look at what brought on the panic. Shamir, who is generally pretty good, might be a little impatient here.
Saker, I too would love to hear what you think about the Strelkov speech.
I showed the video to my mother when she visited me today and her reaction was interesting. She gets all her info from the Russian tv and she felt quite worried after she saw the vid, but she said that she suspected it all along despite the Russian tv only showing the bright side of the resistance.
I’d be mighty suspicious of this
Igor Strelkov website – apart from anything else it is hosted in the good old US of A and was registered less than a week ago
@ Anon 19 May, 2014 00:55
Where is the website of Igor Strelkov?
He published on Ruskaya Viesna (Russian Spring). Problem is that for the last several days the website worked with long breaks. I suspect sort of IT attacks. They said they resolved problems. Perhaps they moved the site to new servers? Just about “a week ago”.
Igor Strelkov is not a bogus man. He is Minister of Defense of DPR now.
—
The Saker, do think sometimes moderating your website or it goes manually but in “auto” option?
I am not too concerned that the rebels are losing the war simply because of Strelkov’s appeal for more recruits. Remember, they have time on their side while Kiev has to find a way to pay for the gas this summer or start siphoning with that activity on camera obvious to all but the Galician ultras and Washington enablers.
I think most Saker readers understand that while the rebels know the local terrain better and have significant if not overwhelming support from a still largely passive population, the junta still has more manpower to call on for now. At least if one includes the Ukrainian Army in the manpower equation which is doing as little fighting as possible but is certainly providing its armored vehicles and artillery to Right Sector/Svoboda recruit staffed National Guard units that are willing to fight. But I can’t say someone with 3 weeks of boot camp training fresh from the streets of Kiev is going to be able to spot for and adjust artillery fire on moving targets worth a poop. It’s amazing more civilians haven’t been killed. Maybe most of the shells are missing wide and landing in the countryside no where near rebel fighters.
The Kiev government certainly isn’t winning and hasn’t successful taken back one town or city — they have merely reaffirmed that the oligarch Ahkmetov owns Mariupol, but not yet the whole Donbass.
http://www.livemint.com/Politics/phptLUoL6cHlGabG2Fb7EI/Ukraine-pushes-on-with-East-offensive-after-Russia-warns-on.html
In looking at the Western media, I see hopium that after the elections of May 25 Kiev will grain more ground and the insurgency will ‘whither away’ due to locals disgust or somesuch. the insurgents, and not the Pravy Sektor/Nazi Guard, are dismissed as Sovoks and criminal rabble, and the crowds that turned out for the referendum are simply airbrushed out of the Narrative. The spectacularly noisy failure of Kiev’s military operations thus far is simply showing ‘restraint’.
Bloomberg/WSJ use Turchynov’s terms like ‘destroyed rebel bases’ without the junta Baptist preacher figurehead specifying what the ‘base’ was. Probably an empty trench or roadblock somewhere. The rebel casualties are allegedly huge but Kiev can only release photos of a body here or there which they say was a rebel and not one of their own.
Meanwhile the rebels claim Ukrainian National Guard bodies are being smuggled to morgues and hidden away. We shall see from grieving relatives soon who is right, though I suspect many National Guard widows and mothers will not speak too loudly for fear of the knock on the door from the men in black.
srael Shamir hit the nail on the head: Putin is shamelessly procrastinating.
Vladimir, you can not have it both ways: be a “darling of the West” a la Gorbachev, Yeltsin & Co. (with your stupid “Sochi” filthy rich men resort, gambling casinos in Crimea and the like…) – and at the same time be the builder of a great Russian nation state. Make up your mind … else your western “partners” (!) will do it for you – fast.
Last report from Strelkov:
http://voiceodessa.ru/news/yugo-vostok/igor-strelkov-predostavil-dannye-o-poter.html
Anon 22:17 wrote:
“the more I read about him the more I´m convinced he has something very rare for politician – that´s combination of character, integrity, determination and intelligence.”
And that is why the craven lick-spittle time servers the west has for ‘leaders’ hate him.
http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/175845/tomgram%3A_pepe_escobar%2C_who%27s_pivoting_where_in_eurasia/
It is good to see more reports from on the ground in E. Ukraine where this revolution is being made. The propaganda battle between Putin and the West is important but the real protagonists are the people of E. Ukraine who are the only ones actually fighting and defeating the Fascist forces.
If the people of E. Ukraine can unite and force out the Fascist invaders it might inspire people in W. Ukraine to mobilize and do the same.
A bit of a curates egg of an article. It makes some good points but, by ignoring large parts of the geopolitical situation, underestimates the strength of Vladimir Putin’s position. The excellent Pepe Escobar I think gives a better assessment of the real position (http://goo.gl/5B5W2H). Militarily, with Russian expenditure not concentrated on maintaining an empire, it doesn’t have too much to fear (not with extensive batteries of S400s, Iskanders and Yakhonts and radar technologies that Iran used to capture the US drone). They also don’t waste as much money by not having private enterprise weapons producers who milk the US taxpayer for every cent they can screw out of them.
As for oligarchs having Putin assassinated, presumably they’d have to do that “for the common good” because they certainly wouldn’t survive the experience. If the Spetsznaz didn’t get them first, the population would pull them limb from limb, slowly.
Shamir’s always a fun read, and his pieces are often informative, too. But he’s also known for overstating his case once in a while, and I think he may have done so here.
Early on in the piece, he states, “He [Putin] is a stickler for international law.” And then, a little later, he writes, “Putin had to deal quickly and so he did, by accepting the Crimean people’s request to join Russian Federation.”
I personally strongly supported Russia’s move in Crimea along with all the rest of you, and I have no problem believing that most Crimeans are very happy with this development, too, but I think it’s a stretch to say it was all perfectly, 100-percent legal under international law. At best, it was a grey area. As I recall, the Russians initially defended their move by comparing it with the US’s little plebiscite in Kosovo several years ago. But at the time, the Russians protested that move as illegal, only later to adopt it as precedent for Crimea. Turn-about is fair play, to be sure, but I’m still not sure that’s a legal principle.
Shamir also stated that “[t]he Kiev regime forbade all V-day celebrations.” I think they did scale them back a bit, but the information I have is that they still commemorated V-Day–even in Kiev itself. (see, for example: http://en.ria.ru/world/20140508/189668375/REVIEW-Ukraine-to-Scale-Down-Victory-Day-Festivities.html)
***
As for Akhmetov being an ally of Kiev, here’s an alternative possibility: he might be playing ‘good cop’ for the Russians in Ukraine. As Fursov noted, he was a backer of Yanukovich. I also believe, if I am not mistaken, that he does a lot of business with Russia. If so, then he could be trying to offer Kiev (and by extension, Washington) a face-saving exit from the crisis… assuming that’s what they want. Note that his suggestion of a “decentralized” Ukraine is strikingly similar to Moscow’s idea of a federalized, ‘finlandized’ Ukraine. In this scenario, the Donbass rebels are the bad cop. But even they voted, as I understand it, for ‘sovereignty’ rather than full-on independence–the former being a somewhat vaguer term. Washington isn’t going to like this, of course, and it goes without saying that Kiev will hate it. But if EU countries start deserting the US, Obama may feel he has no better option than to cut America’s losses in Ukraine.
I’m basically with the Saker on this: I still think the long-game favors Russia here, and that any rush to war should be avoided. Does anyone remember the ‘Orange Revolution’ of 2005? What happened then? Well, Putin basically outlasted Yushchenko and Timoshenko. I have a feeling he can pull it off again with the current freak-show (love that phrase, Saker!) in Kiev.
Crazy Ivan says…
@ Anon 19 May, 2014 22:42
In 2005 they fought with colors of banners. Plus Kiev’s regime had military and militia forces under control (I think).
This year the weapons are damn real and the country is in free drift with all sorts of armed bands/gangs/Fascists thugs raging on freely.
West? West? Jews!