It appears that the united West is preparing what I would call a “negotiations zoo” which would include not only Russian-US talks, but also NATO and even the OSCE. True, the US-Russia summit would take place 2 days before, at least that is the idea, but I still get the impression that the US has decided to use the Europeans like a kind of a political fig leaf behind which it would hide telling the Russians “but, unlike you, we are real democrats, and we need to consult with all our allies, friends and partners”.
So, say, Estonia will be consulted before any decision is taken.
If so, then this is headed nowhere and Russia will have to act unilaterally.
Some recent news are particularly funny. Like the Pentagon announcing that it will keep an aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean to “reassure our European allies”. As if Russia did not have the means to reach to the mid-Mediterranean. And if we are talking about the western Mediterranean, then ask yourself how far the aircraft based on the carrier would have to fly to “deter” Russia: the truth is that the Russian “reach” is much longer than the US one, making the entire exercise a pure PR action.
If my feeling is correct, then the following will happen: the Russians will see this zoo and interpret that as a way for the US not to seriously negotiate, either because they don’t want to, or because they are unable to. Makes no difference to the Kremlin.
The Kremlin made a clear (and, frankly, quite reasonable) offer to the US, which now seems poised to drown it in empty verbiage, empty PR actions and empty threats. If so, then Russia will have no choice but to turn on the “pain dial” until the West comes back to reality.
What do you think – are you also getting the feeling that the US is simply unable to negotiate seriously?
Cheers
Andrei
More nonsense from the west,trying to buy more time in the hope it will all sort itself out and in the meantime they will pursue their own agenda in Eastern Europe,The Russians have drawn the line in the sand and now they need to enforce it failing to do so will mean they will never be taken seriously in the future giving the west a free hand to do as they please,unfortunately
……ft failing to do so will mean they will never be taken seriously in the future giving the west a free hand….
As long as they take turns in inviting the West every day from higher places to negotiate, it means they are hesitant. Couldn’t they have expected/predicted the views of small EU states in the east, which both Washington and London support to cause troubles? Not, everything is show in front of “more important energent-nurture Europeans”, like Mercedes “vorstellung” in a meeting with Lukashenko. It is obvious that Lisabon-Vladivostok, later turned into Berlin-Moscow transversal, is a hope that dies last. Otherwise, there is nothing from the third Big UN arbitrator, mother Russia will become the annex of China. With such american approach, there is no chance of a multipolar world with nine or ten unions. Obviously, the military aspect without the economic one does not play the necessary role. Former Soviet countries without the Warsaw Pact countries do not have that capacity. India is its civilization. Like Iran or Turkey. How to make the countries around Heart Land depend on Russia, which gives it the role of the Big third arbiter? In my opinion, only by military force from which Putin is fleeing. Without a military advantage, Russia influence will be turned into a country like Brazil. In metter of fact, they could get in touch with the Jesuit South League :)) and merge South America with Asia.This would be something. After all, North America has Western Europe. Or there is one more thing.which can get the whole thing out….civil war in America.
There was an article published on RT just today which essentially amounts to this. Russia’s military is ranked 2nd best in the world by various lists, but still it is so far behind the US that any kind of serious military confrontation would almost immediately escalate and go nuclear, as Russia would simply have no other means to defend itself. If this was some random russophobic blogger we could just write it off to the usual hysteria. But this is RT after all, which Google never gets tired of reminding us, “is funded in part or in whole by the Russian government”.
I find it curious how there is such a wide range if opinions out there. You have the Saker who thinks that American military is incapable of, well, anything at this point. It’s all affirmative action hires and the rainbow brigade. Every last one. Then you have the usual suspects that still cling to the tires old cliche myths about “rusted and old” Russian military equipment. I suspect the truth is somewhere in the middle.
Guy
When it comes to assessment of military strength. there is always lots of hype and disinformation- some spread by the government or allies about itself and some spread about its enemies and some spread by know it all pundits who want to show how lever they are. In the west lots is spread by sectors of the military and the MIC with the aim of getting more money. The key is to sort through this mess of lies and distortions. Then of course there is chance, bad luck or good and bad leadership that can affect the outcome. Finally their is rubbish actually believed by the military/governments.
Given it is in the RT. I imagine that the article about going nuclear is designed to put the wind up Europeans, including Brits. Stir the public up a bit. Give the Daily Express some real war porn to sell their papers.
However I admit that I find the hubris of many re Russia disturbing. Such confidence could be disastrous if over estimated or if bad luck intervenes. Their could be traitors in either camp and unpredictable actions. That is one reason why I will always go the peace option if possible.
The “wide range of opinions out there” are a not so clever attempt at obfuscating the naked reality of the current situation. On this blog on 12/27/21 Larchmonter445, with brilliant prescience, deftly sketched the horror awaiting the NATO felons for any “wrong” moves:
“Larchmonter445 on December 27, 2021 · at 6:17 pm EST/EDT
@Serbian Girl,
NATO is deep into the Bear’s forest. Positionally, they are in an uphill locus. The first salvos will decimate what they think is a defendable front.
Not only will they lose all their assets along the Black Sea, the Baltics, near Belarus and Kaliningrad, the Western Military District and Southern District will clobber them with ferocity their military has never seen.
It will be a lightning war of missiles. Russian EW will blind the West and cancel their communications.
There is no military on Earth that can accept what Russia will deliver in the first hours. If it is reliably true that the US has 4000+ men on the contact line in Ukraine, they will be ashes when the Donbass erupts. NATO is said to have 8000 at least in Ukraine. They will be decimated.
This war is destined to be short and horrific for the West. The worst thing is to underestimate your enemy. The West looks down on Russia and badly, tragically underestimates the fury that Russia will launch.
Look at the goals Russia must achieve:
A Ukraine with no nazis and no military capacity to threaten Russia or operate in its sphere of influence.
NATO back in West Europe with no Intermediate Range Nuclear missiles.
Those two goals require a victory over both Ukraine and NATO. They have to submit to Moscow.
As for the US, the war itself will be death to the hegemony beyond the Atlantic. Russia will gain its historic sphere of influence.
The West can peacefully retreat and concede what Russia wants, or lose and surrender it all.
I will point you to the big battles to clear ISIS and AQ from Syrian cities. The Russians were pinpoint and ferocious and each battle ended very quickly. The longest battle was nine days, with one that went fourteen days in two parts. Taking care of civilians in urban battles slowed things.
Fighting NATO will be unrestrained. It will be hours not days for most locations.
Russia has prepared for this for 20 years. The West is unprepared.”
The language used by Larchmonter445 is easily understood but the horror of the war itself will never be understood until experienced. There is nothing more to say…
There is more to say, and the Russian defense forces should pay close attention!! The Empire has been openly conducting preparations for the conflict ahead for twenty years as well. They have recruited young, attractive, fertile women from around the country and have transformed them into fighting men!!
It is true, so Be Afraid. Only the most confident and determined would make such sacrifice in order to spread and defend Democracy, Freedom, Liberty, Truth, Liberty and Happiness. The Russians must know by now that the Empire is prepared to smash wave after wave after wave of these Trans-Soldiers against whatever Russia is prepared to throw at the West. After its certain victory, the Empire could celebrate by sex-changing the Statue of Liberty from a women to a man standing upon the bones and ashes of its opponents. So, there.
“wave after wave after wave of these Trans-Soldiers against whatever Russia is prepared to throw at the West”
Such a waste of attractive, fertile women, please spetznaz save a couple for this hungry bear.
The ‘Net of 1,000 lies’. The size of the army is not relevant, the efficiency is. A more efficient army will have less non-combatant members for every combatant, that is say that the logistics network performs better. In bloated military structures up to 20 non-combatant roles are required for every soldier on the front line, yet these are regularly counted as soldiers. So to put numbers to this – a military may consist of 1,000,000 members but have only 50,000 deployable members compared to an army that has 500,000 total and 50,000 deployable.
Same for military budget, the Chinese and Russian Governments own their military supply chains so the cost per unit deployed and cost per system developed is lower than the USA and other western countries that contract development and manufacture to third parties for profit – companies. Additionally, the connection between the Military and the development systems in China and Russia tend to produce equipment that is more functional for intended purpose than that produced by the western process.
I think you are very wrong about the more efficient fighting forces having more “tooth than tail”. The teeth are the front-line combat forces, the tail is their logistics which support the tooth.
In WW2, the Wehrmacht used Blitzkrieg tactics against the Red Army, who were themselves also using – or trying to use – Blitzkrieg tactics. In fact, the Germans and Soviets armies trained together before the Nazis came to power. One lesson of WW2 Blitzkrieg is that the “tail” is very important. The biggest difference in 1941 was that the German armored battalions had twice as many trucks per tank, and were thus far more mobile, able to move faster, more able to create cauldrons, and more able to avoid cauldrons laid out to trap them. Yes, the Germans had other big advantages, such as Luftwaffe air superiority, that the Red Army was caught up in the middle of major changes to equipment and tactics, the failure to demolish an of the many bridges across the Bug River, and probably poorer training on the Soviet side. But when historians examine the purely land aspect of the war in 1941, the lack of logistics was a major Red Army deficiency.
I agree with the point made that It’s important to not get over-confident. I think over-confidence describes the Empire and their ruling elites, more than it does the Russians.
@Cosimo,
I think you need to go back and re-read what i said. Tactical logistics were not mentioned in my post and are very different from what I stated.
Cheers!
Thanks for the heads-up, JackJC. I re-read it more carefully, and I get your point that a tooth-to-tail ratio of 1:20 is ridiculous. Absolutely true, except of course, for air forces.
Which lists? American lists? And you may have noticed that RT is basically a trash website now that caters to Americans. As far as I can tell you’re getting this from Alexey Gryazev, a political “scientist”, who quotes Global Firepower.com, which I can’t even find anything about online. Also, note Gryazev claims the US is acting diplomatically here. The guy is clearly at Atlanticist pushing an Atlanticist agenda.
Stop the nonsense. The US surrendered to IRAN. That was the signal to the entire world the US is not the #1, or #2, or #3 military on the planet anymore. Recall the US was defenseless against an Iranian missile barrage and was too scared to retaliate. So no, the truth isn’t in the middle. The truth is the US military can’t beat the Taliban or the Iranians, nor China, and certainly not Russia. Look at actions, not rhetoric. The literal wet dream of every Zionist–Iran fires missiles at a US military installation, the perfect excuse to go to war finally, except they can’t.
And you’re out here promoting this garbage the day the S-550 being deployed is announced. Yeah, tell us more about what the political “scientists” working for the Empire have to say.
@Krungle
I am not promoting anything, just pointing out that there are other viewpoints out there. We’re living in a time when everyone is stuck in their own little information bubble, so it wouldn’t hurt to at least occasionally see what else is out there.
We can talk about various embarrassments of the US military. There’s been quite a few to choose from, especially of late. And we can write off the trillion dollar budgets as nothing more than a pyramid scheme to defraud poor American taxpayers if their hard-earned paychecks. I mean, this isn’t a secret to anyone at this point that the so-called Department of Defense us just the marketing department for Lockheed Martin. But still, a trillion dollars a year is a lot of money, even if most of it is wasted. We can laugh about the various pundits from DC who mock and dismiss the Russian military and appear stuck in the late 90s. But let’s not fall into the same trap just on the other end of the spectrum.
And as far as RT, I don’t really get the amount of hate it gets from this community. Ask yourselves this question. If it was such a worthless outlet, why would the Washington establishment go to such great lengths to silence it?
Ask yourselves this question. If it was such a worthless outlet, why would the Washington establishment go to such great lengths to silence it?
Because it is in their nature to censor anything that even remotely sounds Russian, it is ttieir job, they get paid for that.
it’s not that simple. RT fulfills a purpose, and in a complex way. It is not easy to be heard by the West, in times of censorship. Sputnik and RT is preferable and better than any alienating Zionist media. Our days are not times of perfection. The weakness of is simply immorality, understand?
“The literal wet dream of every Zionist–Iran fires missiles at a US military installation, the perfect excuse to go to war finally, except they can’t.”
This is VERY true. The perfect opportunity to bomb Iran into hell (forget about troops on the ground), and they let it pass.
They didn’t exactly let it pass, Skull & Bones convened an EGM and there was some gnashing of teeth.
“Recall the US was defenseless against an Iranian missile barrage and was too scared to retaliate.” — oh, please. What projection. The US-Israeli took out the top Iranian general in an ugly but effective airport assassination and then sat back and let the Iranian face-saving anger resolve it self with some limited fireworks to pacify domestic outrage. End of story. Fear has nothing to do with it. It simply was not strategic to do anything else than was done.
It is all this Arab/Persian posturing that keeps them down and under Occupation manipulation.
I am no military historian, but almost every conflict in history seems to be based on the delusion of military invincibility.
As I have written before, time is the greatest ally of Zone B. It is Zone A that desperately needs to upset the current geopolitical trajectory. Way better to let Empire fade with a whimper than the world disappear with a bang.
@Moses
Way better to let Empire fade with a whimper…
A little push sometimes helps…
Good point, the US on paper has a much stronger military, but what resources can they bring to the location of the fight?
I could have a gun at home but that doesn’t help if I don’t have it with me and my opponent has a knife with them.
The US and its allies cannot bring much to the location of the fight (Eastern Ukraine). Russia can. That’s all that matters.
I think it’s hilarious when commentators say that “Russia has 100,000 troops massed at the border.”
No, they have at least 3.5 million trained soldiers “massed at the border”. Also known as the country of Russia (which borders Ukraine).
Spot on – How can the US bring her thousands of weapons to Eastern Ukraine without being bombarded en route .Russia is not Iraq that gave the US time transport and move soldiers to the battle field. The would all be decimated prior to their arrival.
Very well said, Logistics, Logistics, Logistics
It is evident that the publication in RT, is part of the very complex information war that Russia is waging. You just don’t have all the elements to interpret it.
“It is evident that the (ALL) publication(s) on RT, is part of the very complex information war that Russia is waging.”
Well said my friend “forest for trees”
Regards
Kent
Уже лет 5-6 как российская армия сильнейшая в мире. Более того, при складывающихся тенденциях, через 5-7 лет США потеряют и вторую строчку
Yandex translation. Mod:
For 5-6 years now, the Russian army has been the strongest in the world. Moreover, with the emerging trends, in 5-7 years the United States will lose the second line.
I have read the article and I don’t know if the analyst is a real professional with a knowledgeable military affairs.The analyst mentioned US aircraft carrier as the major game changer but he failed to even mention Russian hypersonic advantage. He stated the US has 19 of those sitting ducks that requires just 19 Zircon MACH 10 hypersonic missiles to submerge them. No mention of Khinzhal and the latest weapon systems America can dream of. He even doesn’t know how many tanks, fighters , America has in Europe to counter vast Russian conventional weapons at home.
If they have an advantage in hypersonic weapons why don’t they use it? Why is Putin offering Americans development assistance, Turkey? Are they waiting for the Americans to develop this type of weapon, so that they can start developing new ones? The old failed defensive logic of thinking? Isn’t that a form of Cold War chess playing, albeit without high production?
Russia helplessly watches as the Dresden colonel plan goes into the past. The Germans rejected him, which is the basis of Russia’s policy since Gorbachev’s collapse of the USSR. This is the downfall of an entire political era that eventually brought Russia through carrots and sticks to where it is today. A completely new policy and new people are needed for what Russia is not ready for. The only way they can get out is through war. And Putin will accept that in the end. To survive. Only instead of paying the price for the failed years and a new turn of the coat, like Stalin after the war, he will be celebrated as the winner. Even after the failed policy with Germany, they decide to go to be “partner anex” of China – China will eat them slowly but surely. Time buying again.
@djole
You sound a warmonger… Just think about how many Russians would have died if a war had happened three years ago. The decision to go to war is never a good decision. Wars happen “when all diplomatic options have been used up as a means to achieve peace”. The Russian forceful demands are, perhaps, Russia’s last diplomatic attempt at avoiding war. It is happening now because, now, Russia is finally in a position to do so, to impose changes upon the other side. The Saker said before that the Russians certainly have already predicted all possible scenarios emanating from their demand. They are aware of the danger of war. I am sure they know, more than any of us, that they can win if it happens.
I put the US military down a lot because, well, they deserve it. They spend more than the next 10 countries combined and get crappy results. That is by design.
That said I know of NOBODY on the planet who would put the US military anywhere but dead last on the list of groups they want to mess with. They can focus resources like nobody else. Military and non-mil resources can be thrown at a country and drive them back to the stone age in mere months (see Lybia for a recent example).
They are not invicible and know if they start a hot war with Iran that Taiwan falls to China and Russia does whatever it wants in the Ukraine. The USA would not be able to do a second front.
We will have to see how much weakness their vax mandates bring as losing 20-40% of your pilots and forces would render them even less effective than their current “don’t win, just generate money for the MIC” status.
I still think Smedley Butler’s idea of having the armed service personel vote on when and where to go to war. They have their lives on the line so they should be the ones deciding.
Here is the real scenario:
1) Some conflict erupts, say, Ukraine attacks Donbass and Russia responds.
2) The US and NATO forces in Europe get involved, due to stupidity on the part of the US and EU leaders.
3) Russia demonstrates what the war games have already shown: the US and NATO do not have enough forces currently on the ground in Europe to defeat Russian forces.
4) The US tries to send reinforcements by ship and air to Europe.
5) Russia destroys all NATO ports and air fields, so no reinforcements are able to come to Europe’s rescue.
6) The US is forced to go nuclear to which Russia responds with nuclear.
The difference between today and Cold War 1.0 is that in the past, the US and NATO had far greater forces in Europe than they do now. Even then the Soviet Union had an overwhelming military advantage. But the US and NATO forces were intended to hold the line until reinforcements could be sent over the Atlantic and elsewhere in the region. The problem today is that new technology has eliminated the possibility of sending reinforcements from elsewhere. When all your ports and air fields are destroyed by intermediate range missiles and air power, what can you do? All you can do is escalate to nuclear missiles.
Which means Russia could indeed win a conventional war in Europe against the US and NATO – but probably not without it escalating to nuclear war. Which is why it’s entirely unlikely to ever happen – unless number 2) above happens. This is also why Russia feels now is the time to gain geopolitically against the West over NATO expansion.
A similar situation exists over Taiwan. The US and its allies in the region can’t win against China in China’s home arena, without going nuclear.
Yes, they are unable, but it is more than that. They have no clue what to do. They know the pain is coming, but they do not really really understand it. So, they develop screeds of useless words. From the many interviews of the Russian diplomatic contingent, they were ready for this.
The last two Smoothiex12 should be read.
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2021/12/yeah-yeah-i-know-beaten-to-death.html
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2021/12/ok-this-is-official-wow.html
I just hope those that say there are still small pockets of reasonable voices in the western climes are right. Otherwise, there is nobody but madmen (inclusive of course) to talk to and that is scary.
They have never been able to keep a treaty.
Peace treaty with the British Empire, broken by USA – War of 1812
Peace treaty with the British Empire, broken by the USA, Fenian raids that morphed into the IRA
Peace treaties with Native American tribes? Gold in them thar hills? Break the treaty!
Peace with Spain? No problem – Spanish American War started by the USA
Allied with the Filipino’s to kick the Spanish out but like the countryside ambience? No worries! Concoct a reason to kill your former allies and take the land!
Want warm water ports on both oceans? No problemo! Intercede in Texan/Mexican war by sending a sacrificial garrison for the Mexicans to attack and then declare war!
Why not sell weapons and armaments to both sides in WWI? Why not bankroll Adolf Hitler in WWII to really kick-off the profit making!
(Note to moderator – this is not a self-promotion.) In 2011 I re-wrote this article from the old Truth-out Town Forum and republished it to show the back-stabbing history of the USA: https://www.veteranstodayarchives.com/2011/09/12/manifest-destiny-to-pnac/
The Monroe Doctrine makes it quite clear that the USA considers the entire planet its’ property.
The Monroe Doctrine was about Tsarist settlements in the territory of California which outnumbered
Americas at the time.Britain ruled S.America by mercantile means until WWI cut communications and shipping routes.
@Winston,
O’Sullivan, expounding on the Monroe Doctrine in 1839:
https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/osulliva.htm
This was embedded in the linked article and quite clearly supports my comments.
Cheers!
I can verify your comments with several examples which i researched myself>
From GM Archives: Bedford owned by GM, making trucks for the British war effort. Opel owned by GM making trucks for the German war effort. Opels profits held in an Escrow account with full agreement by GM to be paid after the war ended…
From ITT archives: STC owned by ITT produced radar which helped locate and shoot down German aircraft. Focke Wulf, Owned by ITT, produced aircraft which attacked STC radar installations.
Iran-Iraq war 1988. The US was now allied with Saddam Hussein (remember Rumsfeld kissing Saddam Hussein?) Iraq needed uniforms. The US subcontracts the work to South Korea, which bills the Pentagon. Iran had been allied with the US under the Shah. Iran goes to South Korea to get its uniforms as before. South Korean uniform maker has American investors cashing in, both ways.
Look at the way that American corporations have acted since 1945. On the surface, there is a intense rivalry…but not far below the surface, is an intense level of cooperation, to help each other gain market share at the cost of everyone else. Best examples are GM+ Ford (+ when Chrysler almost went under, the biggest buyers of Chrysler cars were GM dealers), Coca-Cola+Pepsi-Cola, Thermoking+Carrier.
These were good examples when there was still Entrepreneurial capitalism, so it was aggressive but others still had a fighting chance. One example of this was Crosfield of the UK competing but cooperating with Rudolph Hell of Germany..until Crosfield got into trouble and was taken over by Hell in a very Gentlemans Agreement kind of manner.
Under the current Casino Capitalist economy, only the biggest can survive – and mainly through political lobbying. Look at the way Kraft wasted funds on crushing and buying up competitors all in a desperate effort to scratch together some profits in an ever tightening market, the management driven entirely by fear of losing their overbloated salaries, then merging with Heinz…and still no worthwhile improvement in market share…then they did a name change presumably to disguise the real ownership…
Then the phase kicked in where underperforming US companies went into Chapter 11 and emerged with amazing amounts of Dollars to spend on foreign acquisitions, then in their arrogance assuming they knew better how to run highly successful European operations…changing the company names to the American parent, with clients confused about the sudden disappearance of the successful European brand and avoiding the underperforning American brand…. but at this stage, one must question why European companies have traitorous directors and shareholders who assume that the Dollar payout will enrich them.
The European business world has been part of this Zoo for a long time already. ..but it has become obvious that the Russians and Chinese are far better at capitalism than the Europeans or the Americans.
Just to remain on-topic here, yes there is a lot of information and disinformation flying around but if one cuts through the smoke and mirrors, there is no question that Russia and China have been methodical and applied and are now well-prepared to force their own agenda and potentially give the US and EU Deep State the painful slap-down which they fully deserve.
Unlike some commentators on this website, i dont see RT as being incompetent. I think RT know their audience and how to influence it. And if giving the US a false sense of superiority allows Russia time and space to build up its own defence to a tipping point where the balance is entirely in Russias favour, then these are good tactics.
I recall the incident in Syria where 700 British, French and US troops were identified in the suburbs of Damascus aiming to attack Assad…and were then attacked by Russian jets to the degree that the 700 men surrendered and were bused out by the Russians. Rather like what happened in Crimea?
Maybe the Western European bus makers will have a golden opportunity now, with so many buses being needed by NATO for their pull-out ? i make that about 200 buses…? Anyone seen any activity in this regard ?
@Analyst,
An in-depth study of the history of Krupp Stahl is also very interesting.
For decades since WWII the Empire has fed dozens of countries and millions of people to its meat grinder – no explanation needed. And all this under a mountain of lies and deceit.
So, correct, the Empire is unable and unwilling to negotiate. It revels in assiduously taking its game to even higher levels. Why not, as the monsters in control of the Empire feel they are untouchable.
Agree, west is unable to proceed in any meaningful direction. We will hear more “broken record” tunes, leaving Russia with no other option than to act according to its national interests.
In my mind the US foreign policy apparatus has been incapable of determining “facts on the ground” since Lavrov and Kerry negotiated a ceasefire in Syria in autumn of 2016- only to have NATO and ISIS carry out a combined attack on SAA positions. Since then, the State and Defense Depts have been a clown show of cretins, MIC water carriers and US apparatchiks of the exceptionalist school. The current administration shows degradation and decay and general decline in the already low quality of the pool of potential candidates for such jobs.
I’m not in a position to assess the military capabilities of NATO vs. Russia, but given recent losses in Afghanistan against non-state actors- I am concerned just where all those “Defense dollars” are going. Given this general disarray, I have no hope that a positive proposal to resolve this current diplomatic standoff coming out of US “leadership”.
“What do you think – are you also getting the feeling that the US is simply unable to negotiate seriously?”
I’d ask an “inverse” question: Is there an outcome feasible to most US stakeholders? I think that no outcome (negotiation with deep concessions, negotiation with cosmetic or standby concessions, no negotiation at all, etc.) would satisfy most US stakeholders, at least those who care or have real influence.
If no point of agreement inside the US about what is acceptable (which is different from what is desired) could be reached, then the failure is guaranteed and negotiations are set to fail regardless of the aim at negotiating.
International banksters have inflated the biggest credit bubble in history, and they need an external event to blame the bursting of that credit bubble. So they are looking for a big war. So why negotiate anything but go all in to a war…after all, the international bankers have reservations at deep underground military bunkers (DUMBs).
@Saeed
Yes, the situation is very serious. Russia would NOT give the US the war they want. But, Russia is prepared to fight for its safety, for its frontier, for the neutrality of its border countries, for the right to exist in this world.
Could the US, without its WWIII, use this Russian advance as an excuse, and break the system apart? It may be the little push they need to do so.
The US obviously has never had the intent to negotiate seriously and the Russians know it, the only question is what the Russians will do, assuming the US doesn’t do anything more provocative then wasting time by consulting their puppets, I think the Russians first steps will be to put nukes in Belarus and then every month or two some action to irritate the Americans until they come to the table, I think Feb 1 would be a good timeline to see the Russian response
As I understand it there is a Stryker Force in Italy and 173rd Airborne as rapid reaction forces with a total of 7000 men – that is US combat troop strength in Europe.
A flattop in the Med simply means it has nowhere to go and cannot decide whether to reverse course to Suez or go to Atlantic. US has no hand to play nor does Europe
Your total, Paul Greenwood is referring to rapid deployment troops, not the combat total.
US combat troops in Europe presently is at 63,900.
Jurisdiction Total Army Navy USMC USAF USCG
Germany 35,468 21,585 431 432 13,009 11
Italy 12,436 4,081 3,497 114 4,742 2
United Kingdom 9,576 164 273 52 9,074 13
Spain 3,234 26 2,578 246 383 1
Belgium 1,143 627 92 38 386 –
Greece 429 6 368 29 26 –
Netherlands 422 130 31 15 216 30
Portugal 259 4 50 19 186 –
Poland 167 44 83 9 31 –
Romania 132 17 93 9 13 –
Norway 81 22 10 16 33 –
Hungary 77 7 3 6 61 –
France 75 22 18 17 18 –
other 429 65 37 271 51 5
Total 63,928 26,800 7,564 1,273 28,229 62
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_deployments
There is no US troops in France.
None.
” US combat troops in Europe presently is at 63,900.’
And how many of those are actually “front-line” guys with actual weapons vs logistics guys?
And how fast can those guys in Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal, United Kingdom, Norway and the Netherlands actually get into action on the front in eastern Europe in a coordinated way? I believe the whole “unable to move logistically” to the front was covered in previous analyses of recent NATO maneuvers. They can’t even move the forces they do have directly in places like Germany to the front in less than weeks. Not to mention when every port and air field is under fire and long-range AD and air power are shooting down the transport air craft.
The total number is meaningless. From what I’ve read, something like 14 NATO war games show NATO losing to Russia despite having been given an initial advantage in every one.
Let me tell you how you know that Russia really does have military superiority: Biden has publically announced that he is going to talk to Putin.
USA will never agree to Russia’s demands. The USA is led (and owned) by delusional sociopaths. Putin knows this. He knows that Russia must now use extreme force
Yes, I agree. Are the Europeans prepared for this?
The USG had zero interest in negotiating these issues with Russia. The USG will delay, obstruct and obfuscate and then the PR team will declare that the democracies of the world stood up to the autocratic state of Russia and its dictator Putin.
As long as the negotiations are ongoing Ukraine will be pumped full of weapons and “advisers”. Ukraine is de facto a NATO nation already except for one minor detail, NATO article 5.
The only outcome of these negotiations that I can see is of a historical nature. At least Russia will have made an open attempt to avoid what is coming.
I think you’re right. US won’t negotiate seriously or retreat. They will add more weapons and advisors drip by drip, and force Russia to make the first major move. They believe they can handle the status quo. They will make Russia look like the aggressor. Russia will have to decide when enough is enough and then eliminate the Ukie regime and all NATO infrastructure in the Baltics and Romania. The NATO infrastructure has to be beaten back militarily. The US has to be embarrassed in defeat. But will this spiral into some thing global? China doesn’t have to grab Taiwan back, but it should be prepared to do so. Russia must be ready to protect its assets in Syria. Iran should be ready in solidarity.
Speaking of Syria, there was another intense bombing by Israel. The excuse is the same, that is, they wanted to eliminate Iranian forces, but it seems to me a warning to President Putin. If Syria is (and I have no doubt) an ally of Russia, why doesn’t President Putin give to them more adequate means of defense? Does he not have enough S-400? There is something that is not right or that I cannot explain to myself.
We are past talking, now comes conflict.
So Sun Tzu’s rules of war come into play:
(1) Which of the two sovereigns is imbued with the Moral law? Putin or Biden?
(2) Which of the two generals has most ability? Shoygu/Gerasimov or Austin/Milley?
(3) With whom lie the advantages derived from Heaven and Earth? US (which is in North America) or Russia (which has a border with Ukraine)?
(4) On which side is discipline most rigorously enforced? Woke/politicized US or the modern Russian army?
(5) Which army is stronger? Again…
(6) On which side are officers and men more highly trained? Again…
(7) In which army is there the greater constancy both in reward and punishment? and again…
By means of these seven considerations we can forecast victory or defeat.
-Tom
Conflict is not “coming”. It has been continuous since at least February 2011, with the Arab Spring color revolutions which indirectly targeted Russia and China, and then since the Dec. 2013 and the start-up of the Maidan coup which threw out a democratically elected president. This is hybrid warfare, a mix of direct violence, indirect violence (sanctions against medical supplies), threats, economic warfare that goes far beyond the usual competition, and psyop assaults on truth and the minds of the world’s public.
You seem to think the conflict will be military, between two armies. To me, that seems unlikely. The US and UK have already said they will not send their own forces to the Ukraine. Any of the other potential battlefields in Europe are far more difficult and dangerous for the Empire. I will go so far as to say I don’t see that, worldwide, there are not any battlefields where the Empire could strike and gain something of enough value to justify the loss of men and of reputation. But yeah, there are a few places where the Empire is vulnerable, and a military strike from other forces might be possible. Someone else’s comment mentioned US troops and aircraft in Syria, where the US has no legal grounds for being there.
If we focus exclusively on the options which Russians might exercise, I think they would be attracted most strongly to the variety of non-military options for which the Empire has no answer. There are so very many such options, that it’s too many to list here. That same comment noted that Russia will try to avoid anything while China hosts the Olympic games.
But it’s very possible the Empire and the Kiev criminals, will go for military strikes, probably timed to damage the Olympics and piss off the Chinese. The Empire did that once before, against the Russians. At the moment, this seems more probable than any peaceful outcome. As I wrote, a failed war tends to forcibly put the basket-case Ukraine onto the expense of Russia, and Washington expects to get full control of the EU in return.
We have been waiting since December, 2013. I believe things are headed for a resolution, one way or another.
World Gold Standard. Russia, China, Turkey, Iran, Italy, India, Serbia, Germany (seriously) Brazil ,South Africa ; the list is long but not broke and fake like the green back.
The world returning to the gold standard is a scenario which needs some serious thinking out because it is in the cards, although how it plays out has many “forks in the road”. Perhaps we can all agree on the following:
1. The US dollar is backed up by nothing, maybe not even the gold and tungsten in Fort Knox. Surprisingly, the USD is like any cryptocurrency, with a bit more intrinsic value but both monies are very useful for real-world transactions.
2. As a store of great intrinsic value, gold is on shaky grounds. Gold is valuable because it always has been valued, just like celebrities are famous for being famous. But very high value could vanish relatively overnight because there is not a huge industrial demand for gold, unlike silver, platinum, palladium, or even bismuth and iridium. In other words, in a cold hard economics real-world examination, we might find that gold has much less value than it would have if it were to fully replace all the paper money in the world.
3. A return to the gold standard would affect nations very unevenly. India, Russia, probably China, possibly even the US or England might be relatively well off because they hold a lot of gold. But other nations, particularly in the developing world, might be screwed because they have no gold. Being screwed, those nations could do something disruptive, the least of which would be to issue local paper currencies and band together to reject other monies.
4. It was widely understood over a hundred years ago, that the gold standard favored the rich and greatly slowed down economic growth, which screwed everyone else. Making “money” more available for the economy does lead to economic growth and prosperity in a normal and well-functioning world. The rise of the economies in western Europe is sometimes attributed to an increase in the availability of gold bullion, mostly from Spanish conquest of the New World but also, if I’m not mistaken, from sources within the Ottoman Empire. Ellen Brown’s book, “Web Of Debt” gives historical examples where paper money led to great economic expansion: “Script” in the British Colonies in America before 1765, “greenback” dollars during the American Civil War, and, in the 1930’s, the Third Reich’s paper marks. Now this sort of economics is called MMT, Modern Monetary Theory, and the most important supporter is Dr. Michael Hudson. Hudson’s books and interviews are of absolute importance, irreplaceable for understanding the geo political economic situation. YOu owe it to yourself to read “Super Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of American Empire”, first published in 1972, after the US went off the gold standard and before the rise of the petrodollar. The book is not the least bit dated because Dr. Hudson went straight to the heart of things, where nothing has changed in the last 50 years. Note that MMT has one weakness: it depends upon trust in governments and politicians, to make wise decisions of how much to turn the tap on or off, and what industrial projects should be encouraged or discouraged. Keynesianism has a similar flaw because the original idea was to increase the money supply when the economy was in a recession, and then … to decrease the supply when the economy was booming and it was time to re-balance the money supply. Well of course politicians want all the stimulus and none of the contraction, so Keynesianism became just another excuse for printing more and more money. Let me bring in another totally failed and discredited economic theory to explain the liability of MMT. That’s the so-called “Austrian School of Economics”, which claims that public investments today can never be profitable, and can never be paid by income from these investments. Well, that stupid idea was completely discredited by the postwar boom 1945-1975, what the French call “The Glorious Thirty”. First-world economies grew enormously with easy paper money, and that fact revealed von Hayek as an utter crackpot. A brief digression is that the Swedish National Bank bribed the Nobel Prize group (1million USD a year) into legitimizing the Swedish Bank’s nomination of von Hayek for the fiction of a “Nobel associated” prize in economics. Anyway, there is one set of circumstances which can make it seem like the “Austrian School” is correct, and that is when the investment money is badly used or is embezzled. But that’s the same two dangers as with any investment, public or private, at any time in history.
I hope my 4th point is not too long. To summarize #4, the gold standard does not allow the full potential of mankind to be reached, and therefore in the better world we will eventually create, the gold standard is already somewhat obsolete. But old celebrities fade away slowly, and never fade completely.
If I may offer some suggestions. The Russians have offered up Two documents both are specific and direct. Each provision in each is tightly connected to the Preamble. It is these documents that must form the basis of discourse between the US and NATO. But, as we know NATO and the US are virtually the same animal. Now, it seems as if the US and possible NATO want to digress for the kernel of the issues. And, to do so they will try to kerfuffle the the Two Documents and or the issues the effort of which is to create a zoo.
For Russia to keep the engagement with the US and NATO on tract there may be a need for Russia to turn up the Pain Dial. Blogger Dick Lenning on December 27th. 2021 (Clouds on the horizon (OPEN THRESD)offered a Pain scheme for turning up the pain dial so as to assert authority that Russia means business.
Probably, before Jan. 12th meeting make a proposed announcement of Intent as explained by Lenning – Phase 1: Non Confrontational’ may be with some tweaking adding or discounting options. Others proposals could be adapted as follows along his scheme.
So Shere Khan is coming with all his Tabaquis… it is quite funny that Putin used these Kipling characters, an author of the old British Empire, to characterize so properly the West. And it is much more funny that many will remember the Disney movie rather than the book, and in the movie they are quite comical indeed. So he used a metaphor both subtle and ironic.
Leaving the fun, I don’t think they are unable to negotiate, but they are convinced that forcing Russia towards a harder stance, maybe to use the military, is fitting well with their aims, which could be to isolate the EU and continue the internal reshaping of the West society. Of course we must consider that now US are also so dysfunctional that foreign politics vector is only the sum of diverging interests (The Saker already explained this and to me this is by now evident), messing up the things. Think about Afghanistan: they negotiated with the Taliban, the retreat was planned since the Obama time, but then everything was screwed up. This is why I’m so worried for the trajectory of this Ukraine affair.
The U.S. doesn’t have diplomats any more. Their foreign policy is “steal it, kill those who resist”. Of course there will be no negotiation. In any meeting they will do what they do best: use many words and try to confuse whoever is in the room, all the while watching for an opportunity to steal something.
Russia knows this. I’ve got my popcorn ready.
Patrick
I will buy three rows of seats in any cinema, (or more), just to avoid the sound of people eating pop corn within hearing distance (or any other substance making disturbing eating noises). Other option would off course be to shoot people doing it. That in itself create disturbing sounds, apart from the obvious police, swat team, etc. not a good idea really.
I do not go to public Cinemas anymore for above reasons (apart from the fact that it is a two hour drive each way).
Lucky for some stupids, and me to.
Regards
Kent
Kent
to negotiate anything this complex requires both sides to each speak with a unified voice. this does not exist in the usa or in the nato west.
therefore reaching any kind of agreement is impossible. the west has too many cooks in the kitchen making different recipes. the kremlin already knows this but for the sake of rule of international law, common decency and informing the world public what is happening and why the kremlin feels compelled to make one more effort….knowing its futile before even publishing their memorandum.
now when this effort fails, the world beyond the west and many in the west can say to themselves …. they tried… which is all imo the kremlin wanted………for the world to say … they did their best. once this begins and the world economy is dramatically upset people everywhere will know where to point their fingers.
biblically, what comes next is the flood.
General impression among common people here in the EU is that Russia is a pathetic, weak and sore loser. Russia’s never-ending patience with Israel and Turkey, calling US/NATO “partners” all those years while they show at Russia’s doorstep daily without any consequences, endless delays in SU-57 and Armata programs… are all perceived as just a bark but no bite. When it comes to hypersonic weapons and cruise missiles, quantities are being questioned as much as reliability and preparedness to actually use them against NATO. Russia has lost its image of superpower in the eyes of people here in the west, and if it don’t make good on its demands this time it should just give up and surrender. All that hard talk last days from various Russian officials is perceived as hot air. Sure thing, US/NATO will try to drag this upcoming talks al long as possible (ZOO is a nice comparison, Circus may be even better one), if there is no clear deal by 12th of January (and there will be no such a thing), NATO will call Russia’s bluff with those chemical weapons in Ukraine and stakes will just rise again. Empty threats will not help Russia, in many ways it’s now or never. Good news is testing of S-500’s in Arctic, they might need them soon and exactly there.
Wow, Europeans underestimating Russian capabilities and resolve. Wonder how that will play out?
If only a similar scenario had happened once or five times in the past, history might provide some guide…
Can’t believe Americans think Euros are sophisticated.
It is difficult to say something about what common people believe, but for what I can assess here, i.e. West Europe, Russia as a country is not underestimated. People buy very well the dictatorship narrative, with Putin poisoning the various Navalnys, but this implies the opposite of what you are saying, i.e. he is not a loser but a tough guy. Moreover, at least in Italy, where the communist party reached the 35% and many were sincerely pro URSS during the cold war, Russia is still respected as a superpower, for the achievements in space exploration and for the military technology. Unfortunately, this is absolutely not true for people in the government, as they occupy their place specifically for being super US-aligned.
“NATO will call Russia’s bluff”
Russia is NOT bluffing. They know how to, but it is not in their DNA, so they can’t/don’t.
Regards
Kent
Sarajevo veteran
Are you talking about your own general impression or that of the people in the EU ? What you have written is devoid of reality and cannot be taken seriously.
In the second targeting of its kind this month of December, Israeli warplanes hit the container yard in the Syrian port of Latakia with several bursts of missiles launched from above the Mediterranean sea. This Israeli type of strike was rare in the past ten years of war and took place only twice in 2013, and once in 2014. What is remarkable is that the Israeli strike took place while a Russian plane was in the sky close to Latakia. That caused the impossibility of the Syrian air defence system to operate and limit the substantial damage inflicted on the port for fear of shooting down the Russian aircraft. This means that Israel took advantage of the Russian presence in the Syrian air space using it as a shield but struck the Russian reputation. Syria should be considered the Russian area of strategic influence. Consequently, by allowing the Israeli illegal strike and preventing the right of Syria to defend itself, Russia was harmed more than the Latakia container yard, notwithstanding the damage caused to the Syrian economy (already under heavy sanctions).
https://ejmagnier.com/2021/12/29/israel-bombs-latakia-but-hits-russia/
Israel will help Russia, whether wanted to or not. If Ukraine starts, so will Israel. Maybe that’s why so much talk with US all the time .).Why the Russians are looking through their fingers in Syria. That will pull the whole of NATO to Midle East. Whether that was also the reason why the Iranians sent a mock-up of Dimona’s shooting, I don’t know. But possible. Maybe they, like Israel, see a chance to solve thing once for all time. In any case, if they get two front lines, NATO disappears. Some will not want to stand on the line with Russians, others with Muslims.
“The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) was allocated some nine billion shekels ($2.9 billion) to prepare for a possible attack on Iran, Haaretz reported on Wednesday. According to the report, military officials have told the government the IDF was ready to strike as soon as it had approval.Earlier this month, Israel’s Defense Minister Benny Gantz said he had informed US officials about having instructed the IDF to prepare for a strike against Iran”
https://www.rt.com/news/544737-israel-iran-strike-scenarios-problems/
No author, the editorial office writes:)) …..
Again, Israel can’t afford to start a war with Iran until Hezbollah is dealt with – and that can’t be done by Israel alone. Israel needs US direct military assistance to get rid of Hezbollah (and even that is not a certainty.)
As I’ve said many times, Hezbollah has enough missiles to keep the Israeli electorate in bomb shelters 24×7 for months, causing the Israeli economy to evaporate, and pissing off the electorate who then vote out the ruling elites in the next election, an outcome unacceptable to the ruling elites. So war with Iran isn’t going to happen without the US and Israel first attacking Hezbollah. Figuring out a way to get Hezbollah to start said war is the problem, because the US doesn’t want to be blamed for unilaterally attacking Lebanon.
My guess is these reports about Israel “planning” an attack on Iran are intended to put pressure on the US and the Vienna talks. Israel has undoubtedly had attack plans for Iran for decades and periodically update them based on current capabilities. So publicizing these now is a PR exercise to keep Israel’s opposition to Iran in the news. It doesn’t change the reality about Hezbollah’s capabilities. Hezbollah remains the Iran war spoiler.
missiles to keep the Israeli electorate in bomb shelters 24×7 for months, causing the Israeli economy to evaporate
This is an interesting possibility. That would allow Hezbollah to keep nearly all of its 100,000 missiles in reserve, while avoiding the deaths of Palestinians and of children of Jewish parents. That would seize the moral high ground in a way that even the Lügenpresse could not deny. But I’m not sure “Israel” needs a functioning economy. It would mitigate the economic damage by just draining blood out of the US taxpayers faster
It’s also interesting that the Empire could be confronted with not a two front war, i.e. Ukraine and Taiwan, but a three front war that includes parts of – or all of – the Middle East.
It seems to me that the West does not take things seriously enough and that it is a kind of theater in which it will be able to act out its role as a bearer of democratic principles. Neither the OSCE nor NATO has anything to offer Russia. America will not agree to most of the demands, while NATO, hidden behind America, will threaten Russia with its principles. The Eurovision Song Contest is a much more meaningful event than what we will be watching in the coming days.
I have total respect for the Saker and his readers but it is already obvious to me that the Americans are merely humouring the Russians with these upcoming “negotiations”. Essentially playing the Russians for fools while the outcome is obviously contempt for and rejection of Russia’s so-called ultimatum. The powerful act to create facts on the ground while the weak rely on bluff and words.
In my humble opinion (which means nothing) Russia looks weak and is weak. Who would want to be a Russian ally? See how Israel, for example, routinely humiliates Russia in Syria.
“Russia looks weak and is weak. Who would want to be a Russian ally? See how Israel, for example, routinely humiliates Russia in Syria.”
Really??
Open your eyes, please
“Forest for trees”
You (and others) are in for some interesting surprises/events in the not to distant future.
Regards
Kent
Would the sentence for the closure of Memorial NGO by russian justice be the heating up of the pain dial? Like… just a smell of the menu to come?
I wonder if Russia’s engagement in Syria was a testing ground for also the US and NATO, to see how far they can push the stick, test tolerance, patience, and how many losses they can inflict on the Russians. (e.g. During Big Trumps rein, US Generals would regularly broadcast with gloat and amusement of how many Russians they killed in Syria, (drone strike with footage of multiple charred bodies of Russians being carried out of vehicles comes to mind). The war that has no end in site, showed to the world that the Russian military refused to engage enemies of parity. On the reverse, the Iranians prove to be a more tangible, formidable adversary.
The Kremlin’s response has thus far proven in many minds, the Empire and its poodles have direct/indirect immunity for every action taken there is no real ‘non-verbal’ threat of a consequence to follow.
The time for dialogue is long past… action is overdue.
“…If so, then Russia will have no choice but to turn on the “pain dial” until the West comes back to reality…”
You’re a hopeful spirit, Saker.
The West has been gone from reality for decades now, there is no chance they will return.
The “pain dial” has many frequencies, among them General Winter. I am hopeful Eurostan will realize they are facing more than a harsh winter, if they don’t factor in that variable into the equation. Russia’s greatest quality is a stable, balanced, mindset, a great sense of historical responsibility, and a vision of their future. Decision-making in Russia is not a rash, politics-of-the-moment, vote-gaining, process. Russia has suffered enough to mortgage their future on futile, irresponsible, 15-minutes-fame flashy actions.
Serious negotiations will only start with a little help from…Russia. I certainly hope the West procrastinate a bit, fools around a bit, take Russia’s good will for granted, continue believing this is a bluff, to see Russia crush the new bastion of neo-Nazism growing like a cancer to its west. That would be a good beginning. Negotiations can start after that.
Lone Wolf
This guy ‘Borrell is even worse than US neocons.
Only winners can make demands, EU warns Russia
Moscow shouldn’t have any say over who can join military bloc(quoting)
It seems he is unaware that Russia(USSR) has WON WWII.And lost 27 millions military and civils to defend this clique of idiots(unelected).Otherwise they woul all speak german today and still be under nazi rules, but finally maybe they would have loved that perspective?
Prepare for the worse Borrell, take the first flight to NZ asap and order white flags ‘en masse’ for Brussels eurocrats and NATO people.
https://www.rt.com/russia/544695-us-led-nato-expand/
This moron/criminal (Borrell) has also Argentinian citizenship (from his father). Rather than fleeing to NZ, he would probably end up in Patagonia.
Here’s the nub of the issue, more and more explicitly being uttered now versus behind the scenes: the West’s position is that “We won the war. You, Russia, will listen to your terms of surrender.”
This was more of less explicitly stated by EU(nuch’s) mouthpiece-in-chief Borell where he said “only winners” can make demands https://www.rt.com/russia/544695-us-led-nato-expand/
Also see from Lavrov’s interview where he talks about the position of pro-Western Russian media/pundits who feel Russia should accept its “defeat” in the Cold War and be subservient to the West. (/foreign-minister-sergey-lavrovs-interview-with-solovyov-live-youtube-channel-moscow-december-27-2021/. From the interview, Lavrov says:
This confrontation was predicted by none other than George Kennan – a key architect of NATO – in NYT in 1998 who warned that “needless” NATO expansion under Bill Clinton would eventually provoke a Russian reaction for which it would be blamed. https://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/02/opinion/foreign-affairs-now-a-word-from-x.html
The situation then is between the West which believes that as the “winner”, it can dictate terms and Russia which believes that it didn’t lose a war but changed from within and now being pushed into a corner by the West.
It’s a clash of two irreconcilable narratives being tested in the harsh conditions of the real world.
I am only a neophyte in geopolitics, but since the Americanized Western bloc has been demonstrating its negligence in terms of keeping its commitments and respecting international treaties, I am almost sure that the Russian government has no doubt about how the USA will react.
By issuing this “ultimatum” hidden under a conciliatory speech, Russia is only putting up counter-fires in order to prevent the usual narratives accusing Putin of starting a war and other bullshit we have long been used to.
It seems to me that the dice are finally rolling !
Whether in a diplomatic or military way, NATO will have to leave the areas that put Russia in danger.
The very terms of the disguised ultimatum that has been issued no longer allow for a return to the past without losing face.
I have just been reading a veryinteresting analysis of global business ownership. In short, it comes down to two entities, Blackrock and Vanguard. Vanguard is the largest shareholder in Blackrock and is a private company so its share register is opaque. 82% of all global revenue flows to that point. They quite literally control what happens in the world.
https://forbiddenknowledgetv.net/monopoly-who-owns-the-world-documentary-by-tim-gielen/
It is axiomatic that all wars are bankers wars, so my question is this:
Are we not missing the point when we focus on the possibility or not of war based on the actions of those on the Anglozionist side who are in reality puppets being directed by a very small group of psychopathic individuals for their own ends, whatever they are.?
Following on these questions seem logical:
What are the odds that Putin and Xi know this?
Are Putin and Xi puppets themselves, or are they righteous opposition to the puppeteers?
The answers allow a far more informed discussion of the likelyhood of war and the possible outcomes. Without the answers then we lack enough perspective to fully understand the reality we are observing and run a very big risk of being mistaken in our conclusions.
Assalaamu alaykum w w. Putin knows this better than any of us (that the satanic little men in hats rules the west). You can trust him, he is a man of God.
If you are correct, (and I certainly hope you are) then logic would dictate that when Putin talks about taking out the places from whence the orders come, that those places are no only the military and political headquarters but also the quiet country estates and penthouses which house those whose orders direct the political and thus the military puppets.
Otherwise, what is the point?
That was my question a few article before. Why not destroy those properties first? This would definetely, IMO, destabilize the west.
As a German I am not happy at all. The MSM here is fiercely propagating the “Russia,China-bad, EU/USA/UK-good” narrative. They employ the usual agitprop techniques: the enemy has to be personified and then demonized, the ally generalized and blessed. And thus it’s almost always Putin, and almost always the USA, the EU etc.
Other techniques include not telling full stories, of which Ukraine is the best example. There is ZERO mentioning of UKR being a de-facto Neonazi Junta.
And so on and forth.
I am actually deeply afraid that our leaders gave “simply gone insane” and believe that the usual MO will continue forever. That is exploitation and gradual erosion of other countries to supply the locust-capitalism of the USA-dominated world. My parents believed in socialism of the GDR. It’s good that they are dead already.
I agree with Andrei.. if this is US negotiation tactics pretending that they need to consult and listen to Estonia and Romania or Poland , then there is indeed no need for Russians to wast time and futile negociantns. All the US is hoping for is to protract the negotiations till they have their own hyper-sonic missile working ( likely another 2-3 years) and find an answer other Russia advance military equipment. It is all about gaining time, no real intent to make any concessions or respect Russia security needs.
If Russia decides some sort of military action is required, it will very much depend on what course of action they will take.
If they chose to go for limited involvement by supplying Novorussia army with enhanced equipment and perhaps a few dozen military advisers and some special operation forces and A2/AD then Russia itself will likley lose a very limited number of soldiers and assets for the price of reclaiming the entire Donetsk /Luhansk and perhaps Zaporozhye and Kherson oblast as well if the plan is to restore the water supply to Crimea, create a land bridge to the peninsula and close off the Sea of Azov for Ukrainian navy.
However this approach is likley to result into a stronger response on part of the Ukrainian army and likley lead to significant losses for the Novorussia army and equipment.
On top of that , the more limited involvement of the Russian in both scope and size of the assets commitment, would very likely result into NATO troops amassing on the west side bank of the Don River which is perilously close to Russian lands.
If however, the Russians decide to go all in to include perhaps a decapitation strike on key politicians and sites in Kiev coupled the massive assault on all front line troops, that is would likely significantly reduce the remaining Ukrainian army (or whatever will be left of it after the first 3-4 hours) appetite for resistance.
My uneducated guess is that if this hard line approach is followed, no more than 30-40K hard line Nazi on the front line will be committed to fight till the very end. The rest of the Ukrainian army ( about 125k on the front lines) will likely evaporate in thin air pretty much the same way the Afghan 300K army soldiers have evaporated once the Taliban attack on Kabul commenced in all seriousness back in Sep 2021. Whether they will end up surrendering to the Novorussia army, deserting the army units or just simply relocate further west, it won’t matter in the end. Fact is that Russia and Novorussia army will have to fight only max 40k hard line Nazi mostly form the western parts of Ukraine and their western military advisors. That way the Russian can cut off Ukraine entirely from Black Sea access, take their most industrialized cities and fertile land, destroy most of the Ukrainian army and reclaim for Novorussia lands that were liberated from rampaging Nogai and Crimean Tatars during the reign of Katherine II. These territory has been Russian since 1792 till 1922 when Lenin and his Bolsheviks somehow decided to create a new Ukraine state on this Russian land. The rest is history.
My suggestion is give the US 8 hours to evacuate Diego Garcia and then turn it to glass.
Two birds with one stone.Its vital for the Empire who displaced the natives and far from any population centers.
I’m inclined to agree. If Ukraine attacks Donbass, the Russian goal should be to destroy the Ukrainian military in its entirety and seize enough of Ukraine – note: not occupy, just seize temporarily and organize local governments – to cut the rest of Ukraine off from the port of Odessa. This leaves the rest of Ukraine as a economically non-viable rump state.
I believe this is Russia’s intention if it becomes necessary, because Lavrov already said if Ukraine attacks Donbass, it is likely Ukraine would be “destroyed.” It’s the only way to render Ukraine “quiet” for a while and prevent NATO from installing itself.
US President Joe Biden and Russian leader Vladimir Putin will hold a phone call on Thursday afternoon, the White House announced, as Washington continues to work with allies on a common response to Russia’s military build-up on the Ukraine border.
https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/us-news/2021/12/29/biden-and-putin-to-speak-after-moscow-requests-phone-call/
Oh oh !
I’ve seen better clown shows when I went to a PT Barnum and Bailey circus. This is beyond ridiculous. It’s more a symptom of insanity than anything else.
the short but fierce war in Ukraine could have unintended consequences, which may even be intended by the Western (US, F, GB, D, I, H) governments – namely giving them an excuse to devalue their currencies, get rid of the huge deficits, and force the people to “buy” war bonds – meaning in clear speech – confiscation of their holdings. The economic havoc may be not in the mind of big business, the loss of stock values etc., but in the end the economy would begin to flourish again… like after every war. That is my layman’s opinion.
What’s ‘H’?
H for Hispania
“Difícil que el chancho chifle” as we say down here in Argentina.
“It is very hard for a pig to fly”, would be a nice (but not accurate) translation.
So, no, USA will do things as usual, it will generate huge amounts of smoke and mirrors and wait.
They are on the Titanic, completely unaware of or not capable to grasp the things to come.
The Titanic sunk, anyway…
The US is a quandary. The Israelis, forever friends of the USA, have drawn up plans to strike Iran and of course they will not start this attack without the “green light and support of the US.” So the US is drawn in a, not two front wars (the Ukraine and Taiwan), but three (against Iran through their trusted friend)? Is the US playing for time with the Russians in order to attack Iran as Israel’s good dog?
https://www.rt.com/news/544737-israel-iran-strike-scenarios-problems/
The phone call tomorrow is Putin’s request. This has to be to catalyze the Russian position. A psychological move?
There is no room for US maneuver. There is only InfoWar for the US to influence.
Think about that: trying to shade, spin, redefine, redirect the substance of the Russian demands.
Putin will state what he wants to say. It will be translated for Biden. Biden will say what his troupe tells him to say.
Russia will listen, restate the Ultimatums and wait for the US action.
As if Putin and Russia hasn’t been through this in their preparations months ago. Moscow knows exactly how the US operates, who says what, who screams, who shouts, who cries, who murmurs, who threatens, and who wets his pants.
Biden’s troupe are third-teamers, not even second string. State, CIA, Pentagon, and Nat.Sec. are staffed and led by mediocrities.
Each and every phone call, video conference, summit has been at Biden’s request, not Russia’s.
This one is reported as a Russian request.
White playing Black? It has to be a tactic. It comes after Putin has spent time in St. Petersburg with Lukashenko.
It comes as Putin’s popularity is the highest and Biden’s popularity is the lowest, lower even than VP Harris.
It comes following Russian tests of missile defense against hypersonic missiles and the reported readiness of S-550 system to be put on duty.
It might have something to do with Israel. Their latest outrage at Latakia port might mean Russia wanted to tell the US that some action may be in the cards to teach the IDF a lesson.
Putin is impossible to second guess.
“Putin is impossible to second guess.”
If we can, others can to. So for that alone we should be grateful, and very satisfied.
Regards
Kent
It will be interesting how this call will be spun in the media outlets. Putin requests a call and it is all about the Russian buildup by Ukraine. I believe that Putin will reinforce the Russians red lines during that call. There must be some troop movements going on from the West that Putin will again warn the west to stop. The new year will bring interesting geopolitical things to pass.
https://www.indianpunchline.com/us-shows-the-exit-ramp-to-russia/
Here is an opinion about the phone call between Putin and Biden… Not good according to Mr Bhadrakumar. Putin is risking a lot of credibility. We will see who is right.
I have been watching the show since Kosovo, more intensely so since Libya. I did my time in the US Marines in the early to mid 1980´s (helos) and was mentored by people with trigger time since WWII in various places around the world. They served both as enlisted and as officers, in different branches of service. I can offer a few perspectives, as somebody who just watched it all pass by, without any affiliation to current people whom are official. I kind of like it that way, because I learn about what is going on through a process which seems to be natural and holisitic, cheerleadering for no one side out of hand. Overall, I want more peace and less absolutely useless violence.
The Russians: in a nutshell they are very tightly wired. Their comportment during the heavy fighting in Syria said it all. They were absolutely professional, orderly and courageous. I could not believe what I was observing upon watching footage of Russian attack helicopter pilots engaging heavily defended targets, at extremely close range, over and over again. Their officers fought and died over there while leading, with barely a whimper. There is a reason why people fear the Russian military now and it is a sound position and appreciation of them in my book. They are not playing. This is also reflected in their political leardership at this point, which is exceptionally clear eyed.
The U.S.: The officer corps is a mess, thinking it is just a career path. They never tell it straight, are almost always worried about appearances and they ability to drive ships in the 7th fleet is a good place to start with for examples of this. The personnel themselves can be formidable but, the politics has probably made that completely impossible. Political leadership, coupled with extremely poor intelligence capacity and outright conceit at the decision making level has lead to one surprize after another. Weapons development and procurement has been used as if it´s only purpose was large scale theft. The biggest problems by far are they act as if nobody has any idea what they are doing or just can´t see where the are going …….. while at the same time relying on plans and direction from people who are cowards and are not prepared to sustain a good old fashioned paper cut.
You know, backing off and picking a new direction could be good for everybody. peace can help. Punks like Gloria and Hillary and that ilk in general are dragging us into an inferno. Russia will start removing pieces from the chess board with lighting speed and very soon, if they are not heeded. The party is over, the police are on the scene, my advice is go home and give it a rest. Fix our shcools and road systems, it is much safer and beneficial.
My take, thank you for letting me post it.
John
Hi there John
“You know, backing off and picking a new direction could be good for everybody. peace can help. Punks like Gloria and Hillary and that ilk in general are dragging us into an inferno. Russia will start removing pieces from the chess board with lighting speed and very soon, if they are not heeded. The party is over, the police are on the scene, my advice is go home and give it a rest. Fix our shcools and road systems, it is much safer and beneficial.”
You made my day with that one.
Thank you.
Regards
Kent
Hello Kent.
A pleasure. Thank you for taking the time to read it. I wish well to you and yours in the new year.
Regards,
John
Too many people in the west simply can not grasp the reality of the current world and simply refuse to negociate and to find an acceptable compromise.
Western rulers greatly overestimate their strength. This wrong assessment create two main problems: firstly they think Russia China Iran are bluffing (in their minds nobody is ready to fight them because of how strong they think they are) and if they are not bluffing then they are strong enough to win in any scenario (again because of how strong they think they are).
Ukraine is saying they and the west are ready to confront Russia militarily (words from the ukrainian ambassador to the US). The EU is saying that russian proposals are unacceptable and the pentagon deployed an aircraft carrier to deter Russia. It’s laughable but the pentagon did it anyway. It’s hard to expect something rational from people so detached from reality. Just look at the energy policy in the EU. It’s a catastrophe but they implement their policy anyway no matter the consequences. Now the EU wants to simply forbid any long term gas contract with Gazprom which means things are going te become even worse soon because Gazprom can not deliver enough gas without long term contracts which means without predictability.
We are basically in the scenario I talked about a few days ago: confronting Russia to regime change or break the country with “sanctions from hell” or worse to isolate China to then to start confronting China even more with Iran somewhere in between. I think that’s how the western hardliners decided to proceed. Their plan is based on the false assumption that first Russia has a weak economy and second that Russia is bluffing. I even think that when Russia will start to act unilaterally turning on the “pain dial” instead of getting the hardliners back to their senses the hardliners will go crazy talking about “Russian threat” and “Russian aggression” and they will use that to escalate more quickly. The war propaganda from western MSM will play a key role here.
Their are only two positive news. Firstly biden and putin will have a phone call tomorrow. Maybe things are not as bad as I think they are and a reasonable compromise will be achieved. I think anyone with a rational mind supports this scenario. Secondly the new S-550 mobile strategic missile defense system seems ready for deployment much sooner than expected and the system should be capable of striking spacecraft, warheads of intercontinental ballistic missiles and hypersonic targets.
Russian military observer and retired colonel Mikhail Khodarenok thinks Russia would get a bad spanking if they get too Froggy. Interesting that this article was on RT.
https://www.rt.com/russia/544608-last-war-in-human-history/
Utter drivel. Like the war these liberals spout upon was in the 1940s.
Not a weapon system mentioned that is modern leading edge.
The US is willing to kill off the Ukies and NATO so it doesn’t face Russian military itself.
I think some of these guys have played way too much COD (The RT ‘experts’)
It’s fairly clear that the clowns who wrote that article don’t know much about modern military engagements, hardware, it’s implementation or effect, as well as a distinct lack of any historical knowledge.
I know RT has an agenda, but they could at least try to make their op-eds even semi plausible instead of this ‘rah rah USA’ trash that seems to be more and more common recently on that site.
When was the last war that the USSA won? Compare the US Military to the Afganistan irregulars on paper. The assets of the Afgani’s is not even rounding error compared to the USSA. Yet, 20 years later, who lost? There is no scenario where the USSA destroys Russia without destroying itself. BS will be spewed publicly by both sides whilst the real deals are done behind closed doors. Perhaps Gazprom agrees to continue selling via the Ukraine, ensuring that 10% goes to the ‘big guy’ (Biden)? I’ll bet a few billion given to the beltway insiders by Russia will cut down on a good deal of the rhetoric.
The last scene in “Matrix Resurrections” spell it out beautifully.
When the master of the “new” Matrix obviously believes that Nero and Trinity are there to negotiate “terms” (and should be grateful for that privilege) , they look at each other, smiles and replies in unison “WE, are not here to negotiate”.
Sums it up.
Some face saving concessions might be discussed. That’s it!.
Kent
In poker, this is called a “tell”. Washington wants to use the crisis it made, to tighten control over its “allies”, and the pretense of consulting these dear precious allies is intended to guile them into further compliance. The narcissistic egos of the various puppets and puppet-handlers will be massaged vigorously and with great pomp and ceremony In other words, Uncle Sam’s first response is to rush straight towards the only goals it has, continued dominance of Europe. Offering to let its allies say “No!”, which is what at least the Baltic statelets and Poland will do, allows one to predict the outcome. If Washington was ready to rebuff its most aggressive allies, then there would be less going on before the negotiations. It does not look good. BTW, this is the exact same play that France and Britain did with their “last ditch” Mission To Moscow, August, 1939, where General Doumenc and Admiral Drax said they would have to consult with their Polish allies, knowing that the Poles so hated the Soviets (the Russians, too), that they would say no. Indeed the diplomats accredited to Warsaw refused to even ask the questions.
The russians know very well that the USA are not able to discuss a fair treaty with Russia.
Anyway the USA have broken on a regular basis any treaty that they had agreed upon.
I think that the russians have chosen the hard line in order to test the determination of Germany and France my country.
In spite of the very harsh words of its unexperimented “green” foreign minister, Germany will not participate to any military confrontation with Russia.
In France the campain for the presidential elections which are due next spring has started now. Not a very good schedule to launch military actions in Europe. The UE is suposed to have echausted any war threats in Europe.
I think that the russians are very well aware of that context.
They also know that if they start a limited, but efficient, military action again the Kiev regime, Germany and France will be very cautious with regards their involvement in the NATO military engagement.
Which will leave the Kiev military forces almost alone.
What are you talking about ?
France is an african colonized, US tamed country.
As for Germany. I remind you It is an occupied land with foreign US bases. Just like eastern syria.
Good points Jean.
The Russians understand Euro dynamics very well. Sergey Lavrov demonstrated this in his remarks about the German coalition government in an interview recently [around 45 min mark]:
/russian-fm-lavrov-speaks-in-exclusive-rt-interview/
If we take the US out of the equation, Nato’s stance towards Russia is being unduly influenced by its belligerent newer members from eastern Europe — Poland and the Baltic states. European members (read, Germany and France) of Nato are aware of this and offering resistance, and that’s the reason I think the US is taking a long time to get ‘consensus’ amongst its European partners and in offering a coherent answer to Russia’s ultimatum. It will need all its Nato partners to be 100% percent on-board when it meets the Russians in mid January. The US is Europe’s dictator but it needs all of them to go along 100% if the action is to take place in Europe.
For me its more than a feeling. The US has a proven track record of not being able to negotiate. Their posture has been to ‘appear’ mad, insane to scare the enemy into submission. Its human nature: a normal person is usually afraid of a madman and what he might do.
However, now, the US not only appears to be insane, they ARE insane, after practising it for so long.
Another point is that I think it is not enough for Russia to neutralize Ukraine, to remove it as a source of insecurity.
Without clear and present danger to the US homeland, without a serious and unambiguous threat to Uncle Shmuels digs all Russian action will be meaningless. The yanks dont give 2 shits about anyone i.e EU, Ukraine and even Israel (yes moneybags notwithstanding).
If Russian does not scare the bejesus out of normal and decent Americans, none of the ruling elites will get the message.
Clealry time for words has passed.
I think that Putin being trained as a lawyer would proceed where the US has absolutely no legal standing. He will order an attack on the US installations in Syria. Within a few days, the US would be driven from that country. Then based on an understanding with the Iraqi government he would do the same in Iraq. None of the nonsense about NATO or Europe would occur. If the US persists, he would wipe out the US base in Kosovo, Camp Bondsteel as Russia does not recognize Kosovo- the centre of CIA drug smuggling into Europe.
I can only hope that your excellent scenario will happen – – ASAP !
The “elites” in the west, especially in the Zio-Anglosphere, have already gone the way of Biden in terms of living in an alternate reality. Metaphorically, in their minds, they are busy watching one of those American military porn Hollywood movies and believe that it is reality and that the “movie” is the proof of their superiority. To continue the metaphor, they do so while sitting on their metaphorical couches, eating metaphorical popcorn and drinking metaphorical beer, while regularly shouting “USA! USA!” at regular, patriotic intervals as the US military in their delusional beliefs keeps blowing up and easily subjugating all manner of “bad guys”, including Russians, who. in their version of reality, are still using WW 2 military equipment.
In other words, the collective West are legends in their own minds.
The US, UK and EU (including NATO) will never be rid of their delusions until they get a hard lesson taught to them with consequent pain. It is their nature.
There is hope – Biden & Putin To Hold Urgent Thursday Call Over Ukraine Crisis
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-putin-hold-urgent-thursday-call-over-ukraine-crisis
Well, it’s now Thursday, the call has been held, Biden issued the usual threats, Putin is reported to have “not revealed his intentions.”
Which means Biden lost. Putin will have dismissed his threats as toothless. The call was probably primarily to determine whether Biden is even capable of negotiation. If so, Putin was not impressed.
Geopolitical/military analysis is not that different from a party trick. We make predictions and when the crunch comes, there are all kinds of ways for convincing the audience that we were right all along – despite the fact that we had predicted exactly the opposite. The only way to salvage this activity from a severe loss of credibility is to make clear, unambiguous predictions with clear deadlines and at least admit one’s own ignorance or even better, stop making predictions if we are proven wrong by events. This does not impinge on other forms of commentary.
The only question that matters at the moment is: Is Russia capable of making an openly adversarial painful “first move” if the West keeps stalling? The first move would include openly positioning missiles close to the US coast, entering Ukraine, downing Israeli planes, closing down Russian airspace etc.
I predict that Russia will have not made any such moves by 30th January. If I’m proven wrong, I shall stop commenting on this site (my loss). I invite other analysts to make the same bet. Let’s live dangerously.
Jacob, your Ladder leads nowhere, certainly not to Heaven.
You need strategic patience.
The game is geopolitics, not party tricks.
As for deadlines, firm dates for action? You must be kidding.
The Olympics is a huge consideration. Russia will not spoil China’s global party.
The US may set the Ukies loose to spoil the Chinese Olympics, but Russia won’t.
Russia has many options other than to attack. It also has surrogates to use. Donbass Army in Ukraine, Syrians in the Israeli issue, PMCs and North Wind volunteers, and CSTO cadres if needed.
Russia doesn’t have to wage a vast war. It merely has to drive a few thousand NATO and US boots out of Ukraine and cause the Kiev nazis to run for Lviv, or Poland and points west. As for Israel, one more Russian S-400 unit and the IDF and US will have to beg to fly near Syria. They don’t have to attack Israelis bases or shoot down any F-35s or F-16s or whatever drones the IDF launches at Syria.
When does Putin have to act? When the timing is perfect, surprise is on his side, and the fewest losses of Russians will result.
Geopolitically, he has been perfect for 20 years. There have been costs, but he controls the Go board.
I shall not reply with an ad hominem – I’ll just say that your reply perfectly illustrates my point.
Close this conversation down please. Mod.
While Russia waits for negotiations, the US continues salami-slicing away at those red lines:
“The two-jet mission, involving an E-8C ground-surveillance plane and an RC-135V signals-intelligence plane, is one of the first missions that the USAF openly has flown inside Ukrainian air space”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/12/27/two-american-spy-planes-just-flew-right-over-ukraine-their-mission-map-the-nearby-russian-army/
Perhaps they don’t want to negotiate?
Perhaps this is the proverbial end of the road when it comes to Putins efforts to postpone, as long as possible, the inevitable showdown that must come as the current ruling Empire has reached rock bottom on all fronts?
They have never negotiated so far and I don’t think they will until they get a much needed reality check.
Yes, I thought about this, too. If true, we must prepare for some Russian action very soon.
Americans are unable to deal seriously. Time passes, and the US manages to increase our disgust, disgust and dislike for the West. Humanity is an asshole, and this impasse is unsolvable. It feels like we’re in a dream. Perhaps some hidden variable will define the future, and/or perhaps Putin will surprise us. Anyone who does not see the current impasse in which humanity finds itself (I would say 80% of people), is foolish and alienated. 2022 will likely be the year of historic change. It is undeniable that humanity is lost, despite the miraculous technological advance of the last 50 years.
It is not humanity that “is an asshole”; it is the elite, the super-rich, the upper class. Any doubt that they are in command? I don’t have any.
The US regime is Still following the ‘Wolfowitz’ doctrine of taking down ANY threat to US hegemony (World domination) by any means at ‘their’ disposal!!
The other world powers (Russia, China and even India) must understand this! Nothing will change only their tactics! Our only hope is that the west will find itself in a self caused Cuban missile crises II and be forced back to some kind of reality-or face WAR!
Read the Wolfowitz doctrine for yourselves; it is as plain as day-the out look for all of us is bleak.
The German army has it’s first trans officer, Anastasia Biefang, who is on record as saying “I love being taken in dark rooms”.
In 2014 the Belgian army discarded its Leopard tanks, as a cost saving measure.
I interpret this as: the West has been busy creating an army that corresponds to a political vision, not to military requirements.
And when I look at the Russian proposals, I don’t get an impression of an ultimatum. Rather, the impression is one of “checkmate”: the West can move any piece it wants, they are all losing moves.
You are right Saker. It seems to me that Biden is in no mood for negotiations and does not want to take sole responsibility, so he delegates it to Nato.
The West has a dictatorship of the system (Borg), it is not a one man’s dictatorship as if Biden has anything to say (Trump’s presidency disproved that).
Henry Kissinger, the quintessential realist, once provocatively asked “Who do I call if I want to call Europe?” I would say that this question applies these days even to the U.S. if you want to have a bilateral agreement about something like let’s say a new security arrangement between the RF and the U.S, whom or which branch of the U.S government do we have to speak to …?
Both the Democrats and Republicans work as a team……….its a con job, they are all grifters. Neither party can win elections because they do not offer what people want. If they do offer what people want they cant deliver because they are owned by their donors.
The US is “Not Agreement Capable” we all know this. So why on earth do any of you think they are now? The donors dictate policy and all the rest is theatre.
All the world’s a stage, and all the men and women merely players: they have their exits and their entrances; and one man in his time plays many parts, his acts being seven ages. William Shakespear.
When politicians do not want to solve problem, they form working group for dealing with it.
Russia know that nothing will come up with “negotiations”. So why even bother?
We are witnesing power shift from omnipotent western empire to eastern coalition for years.
It is debatable whether corruption coroded West more than East thrived to present state. It is not important.
The fact is that in some point emerging power overtake declining one in final clash. This has nothing to do with statistics. Decaying, rotten structure always crumbles when collide with small wrecking ball, regardles how big it is.
Russia, China, Iran will attack West. That is inevitable. Those in West who know real state of economy and military are now on heavy doses of antidepressants. They hope everything will be fine when wake up.
Meanwhile, mindless drones should drag negotiations endlessly.
Not gonna happen.
“If you have an important point to make, don’t try to be subtle or clever. Use a pile driver. Hit the point once. Then come back and hit it again. Then hit it a third time-a tremendous whack.”
First I’d like to salute Mr Raesky and his crew for the outstanding work here and wish them all health, and in fact a happy new year not only for them but for those who mind reading these few words, and that said I’ll go straight to the point.
It seems that somehow it is not possible for the US to actually change it’s policy entirely, and this happens due various reasons running from sheer incompetence at top echelon (not only up there indeed) mixed up with a deep social confusion nurtured by the MSM, the new online media, the “Entzauberung der Welt” typical of our XXI century with its IPhones and Tiktoks and so weiter… All this mixed up with total despair due to heinous living conditions for the labourers with wages getting always lower, inflation, part-time (sub)employment and social chaos. Besides that, everyone watches boys and girls (like Neymar and Anitta but could be 2 americans, I sincerelly do not know) siping champagne at yachts with stunning clothes and watches and so what do US people do? Get totally in cognitive dissonce, and many get to religion – but this new sort of prosperity teólogy that puts more gasoline on it.
All that said, the US is no longer (as I see it) capable of leading the west getting out of this “check” by Putin the russian chessmaster (I think every russian plays chess…) and so they will plow on and probably even double down to “test” the russians.
Let us wait, Hr Martyanov informed that S 550 system is already combat deployed. Another game changer as I believe.
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2021/12/ok-this-is-official-wow.html?m=1
Cheers to everyone
Reading every article with interest. When Russia said it would turn up the pain. I suggest that. Al tanf, and all USA bases in Syria will be engaged by SAA and local militia in conflict that a no fly zone will be in affect whereby USA will have no choice but to exit Syria. As Syria would be declaring it is reclaiming its soveriegn territory. Remember it is there illegally thus has no sanction to retaliate.
Syria will activate its S300 system. Decapitating any Israeli attempt to assist. Russia can activate its entire S400 system on its western border which in affect makes a no fly zone for any military aircraft for a large part of Europe, hinting that it is about to do a decapitation strike in defense of donbass. This is not declaring war, but it is a painful reminder that what capability it has should one not head what they have said. Just by turning it on would make the blow hard Nato realise their futility. Just a thought.
Shooting down incoming missiles is somewhat of a sick joke for those who bare the brunt of any failure…….none of this would be happening if Syria had/has the means or will to eliminate the launch platforms performing such Acts of Terror……
I found this today… and I liked IT – REALLY !!
And a comment from
I loved reading this. -MM
(https://metallicman.com/why-is-space-x-trying-to-ram-the-chinese-space-station-why-didnt-the-us-space-military-command-approve-the-flight-trajectory/)
Blinken called US-CHINA relation a disaster.
That’s gigantic news !
The KFC-AZAEL (Kakistocratic Feudal Conglomerate of the Anglo-Zio-American EstabLishment) knows that their window of opportunity is narrowing or even closing. Now that their clumsy & laughable maneuvers to destroy the Sino-Russian Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination for a New Era obviously failed, they’ll have to do something big and probably utterly stupid. Two years ago, I still thought the window of opportunity for them is about a decade… Of course, I might have been brainwashed by the ravings of Stratfor (“Strategic forecast” & al) “predicting” or rather “predictively programming” people to believe that World War III will most probably happen in the 2030s…
But now, it’s not far-fetched to say it’s in the order of 2-3 years, 5 years max. After that, the process of Integration of the World Island will simply be too relentless to do anything humanly conceivable to stop it. Even now, I dare say it’s too late for the KFC-AZAEL. Xinjiang is perfectly under control, their little terrorists have been neutered.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has a permanent RATS (Regional Anti-Terrorists Structure) Executive Committee based in Tashkent. The Air Base just north of Kabul abandoned by the US since August 15 this year. Power of Siberia 2 going through Mongolia as the Chinese wanted to keep the Mongols interested by what the SCO can offer them, is there to stay. Russia & India will from now on settle their commerce in rubles and rupees. Russia & China in rubles and yuan (renminbi, RMB). The Russian SPFS (System for Transfert of Financial Messages) & the Chinese CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) will replace the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) if needed. Under the aegis of President Hu Jintao & President Xi Jinping, the Chinese decapitated the CIA network in Mainland China between 2010 and 2015 essentially. Peace is restored in Hong-Kong since the Law on National Security (July 2020), the color Revolution (Yellow Umbrella) an utter failure.
THAT CHINA COULD ATTEMPT SOMETHING IN THE NEXT WEEKS/MONTHS IS NOT FAR-FETCHED GIVEN THE INTERNATIONAL LANDSCAPE AND BOTH THE RUSSIAN AND THE CHINESE LEADERSHIPS CONCLUDED THAT THEY CAN NO LONGER SEE THE PEOPLE IN D.C. AS HONORABLE RATIONAL AGENTS AND IT’S TIME TO ACT.
And I strongly suggest that this time, the Russian & Chinese moves are coordinated even if there are no glaring signs. Putin & Xi talked on December 15 as everyone in this group knows… They will talk again in person, face to face, in about 5 weeks and nothing prevents them to talk by phone meantime. I wish the KFC-AZAEL is mad enough to start a suicidal double move on Ukraine & Taiwan…It would be a dazzling “SUEZ MOMENT” for all to watch…
Ushakov & Ryabkov from the Russian MOFA (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) were quite assertive in their speeches to NATO on RUSSIAN RED LINES. They are fed up, they are autonomous for food, they have the Asian market for oil and gas, they have hypersonic weapons & the unwavering and enlightened Chinese backing.
China, usually so “sotto voce” in the international landscape, declared firmly & clearly that Russia has her support for Ukraine & the gas imbroglio with the EU or as I call them with affection, the Euro-Noodles…
Yes, Blinken is right to say that the conflict with China is a disaster and the article elaborating on it is crystal clear with the facts it offered. The US recent!y went back on the diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Beijing Olympic Winter Games and asked for 40 visas instead of 18 for US officials (diplomatic farce or plans of sabotage once in China?)
I believe our distinguished colleague Metallic Man was in the right when he wrote so precisely on the attempts to destroy China by multiple pathogens attacks during the last 4 to 5 years. BUT WHY CAN’T THEY OFFER SOMETHING A LITTLE BIT RATIONAL IN ORDER TO IMPROVE THINGS ??? WELL, OLD HABITS DIE HARD… Too simplistic an explanation ? Maybe not so simplistic but at the heart of plutocratic/oligarchical/closed mindset…
People having bullied without any consequences the weak, the poor and the downtrodden for centuries cannot TRULY IMAGINE they might lose this time. It’s not wired in their brains. PSYCHOPATHS HAVE DIFFERENTS BRAINS (ANATOMICALLY AT THE MICROSCOPIC LEVEL AND PHYSIOLOGICALLY) in term of emotivo-rational integration for decision-making and action compared to the normal people, so they’re much more prone to stay in their usual ruts than the average man and will NOT take note of the danger signals. I imagine Putin & Xi scratching their heads and asking to themselves, what to do and with the least “collateral damages” possible on the global stage ?
Just read History, dying empires always fell into the trap of hubris & over-reach and the rest is…History…
Sometimes, taking into account the decisions coming from the US government, in my feverish imagination & wishful thinking, I fantasize some Chinese agents must be present at the White House…
The easiest and most probable explanation for me can be given in one word : HUBRIS.
SOME PEOPLE ACTUALLY THINK ” THE UNIPOLAR MOMENT” IS STILL A REALITY.
And let’s not forget this lesson coming from the Ancient Greeks :
WHOM THE GODS WANT TO DESTROY, THEY FIRST MADE MAD…
The KFC-AZAEL wants a New World Order ? A Reset ? They will get one but maybe not the one they wished for…
But, as they say in French : l’homme propose & Dieu dispose…
Qui vivra verra…
The venal west have been and will always be, duplicitous hypocrites and will do everything they can to cause maximum harm to Russia whilst attempting somehow to blame Russia for any and all problems that ensue. Always.
Unfortunately, the west can’t imagine a world without war. The only hope for global peace, universal prosperity is to distroy this countries, terminate the elites and make sure no man will ever achieve such power as they have today…
God forgive me for my thoughts
Energy Stalingrad
Following up on an earlier comment, where I brought up the issue of General Winter effect on Eurostan, Martyanov (Reminiscence of the Future) just quoted another blogger, Byron King, who wrote a superb analogy between WWII’s Stalingrad winter and the effect on the German Sixth Army, and the current energy conditions Germany is facing vis-a-vis the coming winter.
Here is King’s quote by Martyanov,
“In the fall and winter of 1942 – 43, Germany’s 6th Army fought its way into the city of Stalingrad where it became surrounded and trapped. Then it was systematically destroyed by a combination of hellacious-cold winter weather and the unyielding steel of the Soviet Red Army – but mostly by the unyielding steel of the Soviet Red Army. Now, 79 years later and as the winter of 2022 dawns, Germany is entering the late stage of another massive strategic calamity, although not involving the carnage of war on a distant front. Instead, Germany is on final countdown to ruin its energy supply at home.”
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2021/12/byron-king-wrote-superb-energy-piece.html
I’ve been bringing up the energy issue in other comments, I believe it will play a key role in the negotiations with Russia. The timing Russia chose for this dialogue was not an arbitrary decision, it was planned to take full advantage of all the conditions to turn the “pain dial” (Saker) at will.
On another note, Russia just declared they have no problems supplying gas to Eurostan, provided they sign up for long-term contracts. Europe wants to buy Russian gas at whim, taking advantage of price fluctuation, which is not advantageous for Russia, given the infrastructural cost for gas transportation, which take us back to “Energy Stalingrad.”
“Stalingrad,” says King, “became a metaphor, used to illustrate the most profound kind of mistake, usually on a national scale. It’s only one word, yet at the same time serves to imply a broad, deep blunder of the first rank, usually with disastrous results and implications.
Stated another way, labeling something as “a Stalingrad” implies that a nation has made a dramatic overreach and set itself up not just for mission or operational failure but for complete, total loss. Then in the aftermath of a Stalingrad-scale screw-up come horrific follow-on effects, the second- and third-order blowbacks that transform ruin into utter wreckage…”
Read on.
Lone Wolf
Maybe, none of this really matters, rather than reacting to these outer experiences, human beings, and ‘life’ is not at the mercy of what the US or Russia’s do’s and don’ts. I admire Putin and whatever is decided on. No point beating it to the ground. There is a greater power….whether you believe it or not makes no difference.
Enjoy life, look at nature, breath. Look forward to today… listen to that small inner voice and your answer will be clear.
Exceptionalists don’t do negotiations.
Whatever the future holds I suspect it will not be pretty.
Problem is, Andrei, that reason doesn’t cut it here. The Americans and the NATO top brass are convinced that Putin is bluffing again, like he did in March 2018 when he foolishly advertized his arsenal of wunder-waffen, most of it still untested and unavailable for use until much later. There has been a problem with the Russian posture via-a-vis Ukraine and it looks to me like it has has not essentially changed despite the new rhetoric. You want legal guarantees? Piece of paper to wave and declare “peace in our lifetime”? I understand Putin’s reluctance to get drawn into a big fight with the neocon nutters but the problem is that sitting on his hands and hoping to talk the US out of mischief on the western border ain’t gonna work either. It’s full-strength Gorbachev timid. Other than Crimea, initiative has been MIA since the start of the 2014 coup. But even there! I don’t understand the strategy of Russia reclaiming Crimea but failing to secure the North Shore of Azov (like it could and should have during the 2015 DRP-LPR offensive), saying in effect, “we don’t want to do anything rash, here. Let’s build a very long bridge instead!” Yeah, right! Is it any wonder that since 2015 NATO considers the Black Sea its pond? But that’s just one problem. There was the failure to respond to the assassination of Zakharchenko. Doesn’t Russia have the capability to find out who in the SBU did it and take him and his security detail out ? Quietly, on some Kiev backstreet or in a cafe, maybe. (Actually any of the Kiev bigmouths would do!) Wouldn’t that be a way to make Kiev warm up to Minsk? (No? Well, then repeat!) Surely, you don’t believe that a better approach is to rescind Vicki Nuland’s “undesirable” status, and wine and dine her in Moscow. Or do you? I am certainly not impressed by the dutiful reports by the MinOborony that military planes traffic in the immediate vicinity of Russia’s south-western borders is up 60%. By now one would expect two or three of them having terrible, regrettable accidents, preferably of uncertain origin. That would be more credible reporting of your resolve not to keep your neighborhood clean, would it not? I think it would.
Well, all I can say is that we should prepare for a big Russian response to the long list of US/NATO advances — this time it seems that they went too far for too long.
So, at Putin’s request, there is to be another telephone conversation’ between him and Biden Late afternoon tomorrow Thustday ( https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-putin-hold-urgent-thursday-call-over-ukraine-crisis ).
The timing of the request comes shortly after the public announcement of the US aircraft carrier ‘Harry S Truman’ has had its mission plan changed to keep the ship in the Eastern Mediterranean as a warning to Russia about alleged ‘troop concentrations close to the Ukrainian border’
Given that the Russians will have had prior intel about the ship’s mission change, I think it likely that the scheduled call is about that and nothing else. The americans are making their contempt crystal clear. If the Russian military capabilities really are as described over the past several months – and I believe they are – here is how I see things developing:
The call will be brief and categorically involve NO negotiations. I know we are told that ‘in-your-face’ ultimatums are not really a Russian thing but – there comes a time, and this may well be it.
1. Putin will inform Biden that, unless there is unequivocal evidence of the ship reverting to its pre-planned mission by say noon on Saturdy 1st January then it will be sunk or otherwise comprehensively disabled.
2. Any evidence of the Americans moving carriar-based aircraft ashore will be interpreted as a rejection of the ultimatum and the carrier attacked forthwith.
3. Biden will be offered confidentiality about the call, with an agreed anodyne about it having involved a useful discussion or similar – which I believe the Americans are constitutionaly incapable of accepting
4. Prior to any Russian attack, all ‘International Community’ members will be sent an already prepared message outling the Russian position and intended action.
5. The Russian ‘border states’ – most notably Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Romania, Georgia, Kosovo (Camp Bondsteel) – and probably the UK over its Cyprus sovereign base areas will be told that any retaliatory action facilitated from bases in those countries will result in the comprehensivw destruction of those bases.
6. All will be informed that any who become party to the promised ‘sanctions from hell’ will be subject to similar sanctions from Russia, most notably involving the cessation of all hydrocarbon exports
The Russians are undoubtedly liaising closely with the Chinese who are already on a hair trigger to make life very difficult indeed for the Americans over Taiwan and the South China Sea. Israel, as always is a bit of a wildcard.
All a bit extreme? Maybe, but the Russians KNOW that the West as currently configured is agreement incable and cannon be trusted so … ?
From https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/us-news/2021/12/29/biden-and-putin-to-speak-after-moscow-requests-phone-call:
“President Biden will speak with President Putin by telephone at the request of the Russian side,” the US official told reporters on Wednesday, noting that Mr Biden immediately accepted the request.
“The Biden administration continues to engage in extensive diplomacy with our European allies and partners…”
The senior US official said Mr Biden will “make clear when he speaks with President Putin that we are prepared for diplomacy… but we are also prepared to respond if Russia advances with a further invasion of Ukraine”, adding that Washington is seeking a reduction in Russian troops on the border.
—-
From the tone of the above statements, it looks like the US is more than in a hurry to talk with Russia. It sounds as it was actually the US who asked for this phone call, and it is willing to Russia alone, and only later “brief his European counterparts”.
I’d say at least some people in the West are concerned with the current situation.
This also explains the screaming coming from some people in the West (Joseph Borrel, as one of them) demanding that the EU and Ukraine must participate in the talks with Russia and the US.
Let’s see how it goes. I’d say it is a positive outcome,
Step 1 has already begun: Withdraw gas deliveries on Yamal.
Step 2 Cancel Nord Stream 2, aggressively pursue Power of Siberia 2.
Step 3 If Europe wants to buy Russian gas, prepayment in rubles is required.
Seems to me the empire is in full blown ‘how to save face’-mode cause the outcome of any kinetic settling is obvious to all with healthy grey matter left in their upper chambers.
The possibility of a joint Russian/Chinese military checkmate to consolidate the present socio-economic multipolarity is growing by the day, but then again.. i could be very wrong and some triggerhappy lunatic could actually start ww3. It’s not like that never happened before..
I realize Vlad doesn’t want to give up ELINT signals to the U.S., but I wish Russian air defense had taken out the missiles that damaged the Syrian port a couple of nights back. Why the U.S. and Israel are allowed to bomb with impunity in Syria is beyond me.
Russia knew then that has bigger fish soon to fry ?
Noo, but the zoo animals are getting restless.
Posturing can only get you so far. That is not enough in my opinion. All Russia has done is posturing.
A coisa é simples:
Dissemos o que queremos e pensamos, demos um prazo para resolver.
Se você criar subterfúgios, não se esqueça do prazo.
Simples assim…
Posso desenhar pra quem não entendeu como está a coisa :
Estou armado, digo pro cara que pulou o muro da minha casa :
” – Ou você pula de volta ou, morre ! Você tem dois minutos pra isso! “.
O cara pode tentar argumentar mas, depois de dois minutos, será um cara gravemente ferido (na melhor das hipóteses )…
Google translation,MOD:
The thing is simple:
We said what we wanted and we thought, we gave a deadline to solve it.
If you create subterfuges, don’t forget the deadline.
That simple…
I can draw for those who don’t understand how it is:
I’m armed, I say to the guy who jumped the wall of my house:
” – Either you jump back or you die! You have two minutes for this! “.
The guy can try to argue but after two minutes he will be a seriously injured guy (at best)…
Could it be that the fate of MH-17 – and the strange reluctance of USA to share their observational data about it, be a part of the agenda in the call between Putin and Biden. Compromat of some sort, to some ?
Summary of summit: Putin – cross our red lines and we will be forced to act. Biden – My intel and military guys tell me we’ll get our asses kicked if we mess with you, so we won’t put any serious weapons close to your border, but I need to keep up the rhetoric to placate the military industrial corporate types and their media lackeys. They’re my biggest donors. They’re worried about stock prices and profits if we announce a deal, so I can’t go public with this. Putin – Understand, we’ve got a deal then? Biden – Yep, deal. But I’d like to have fake negotiations so I can look tough. Putin – Not sure about that. Maybe I can spare some low-level guys to show up and say “Nyet.” I’ll think about it.
Washington apparently has its German vassals now taunting Russia by saying that only “winners” are allowed to make demands. I assume they are perceived as speaking for the entire EU, and that the EU is giving Russia the brush-off. Part of the statement made clear that NATO has the right to expand anywhere it damned well pleases, including within Ukraine which has the reciprocal right to join any alliance it damned well pleases.
Them sounds like fighting words to this red-blooded, natural born, over-propagandized American citizen. It is more bravado aimed at “calling Russia’s bluff” and cowing Putin into eating his words. The West is just so cocked-sure that the American military, stationed in a thousand venues throughout the world, with enough nuclear warheads locked and loaded in submarines throughout all the oceans will have already beaten Russia down within days of starting its latest (and last) war of choice. That’s right, I take their words to mean they have chosen to fight this war now, probably in a moment most civilised individuals would consider dirty pool–during Orthodox Christmas or during the Chinese Olympic games. You know, the sort of trick they usually pull to get the upper hand.
The Western vassals think this because they themselves have long ago given up all autonomy, all freedom of choice and self-determination, in a de-facto death spiral wherein it is conceded as hopeless to even think of bucking Washington’s will and commands.
They are all what used to be called “captive nations” and want to see every remaining independent nation on the planet become reduced to their own impotent status. For that they should be made to pay a price, especially since they harbor weapons of mass destruction pointed at Russia (and China) and will contribute their own citizens to be used as canon fodder in this coming war against Russia.
Every American and every NATO base in Europe has got to be targeted if and when THEY start any attack against Russian forces and/or the Russian homeland. If the fools keep their powder dry, they should not be attacked. Only American forces should be attacked and only if they shoot first. Russia (and China) must both prevail to free the world of this malign American hegemony that has infected it for far too long.
Even if Washington strikes a bargain with Putin to save face by offering concessions that will never be admitted, I am sure they will go right back to planning for some future day of reckoning, rather than settle for a peace under which ALL can prosper. They will never stop wanting it all. It is their mental default setting. They will break their word as soon as they have squandered more of America’s wealth and resources to achieve military superiority (full spectrum dominance), so the East will never be able to truly relax even under a new peace treaty accompanied by a spectacularly successful BRI seeming to unite all of Europe and Asia with free trade and universal prosperity. In fact, the psychopaths in Washington will consider it to be just one more score to settle.
So, a note to the rest of the world: Never relax even if you beat the guys in control of America. Not even if you make them true full partners in whatever you are creating across the Eurasian continent. I’ve lived among them for all my 75 years. They are shooting for invincibility and even immortality. They are convinced that science is on the cusp of achieving these things. They think these things can be purchased for enough money just like anything else. I fear they will not hesitate to slaughter us American plebs if we fail to support them in adding to their war crimes and try to turn them out of power. However, never make the mistake of trying to occupy any part of America even to “help” us. Americans of every stripe will resist that to the last man.
“What do you think – are you also getting the feeling that the US is simply unable to negotiate seriously?”
I am, and the reason is that US has made gladiator games of their domestic situation (by pitting everyone against everyone on just about every politically relevant issue, and by lying about everything else, like their foreign shenanigans). They can’t say the truth, let alone act on it. Their “democracy”-talk up to now, and their mafia-style actions won’t let them.
Russia has no one to talk to. It’s chilling.
I think it’s chilling too, of course most don’t see it that way, but that’s fine. I’m very glad I’m not alone!
I think negotiation would require honest and clear-minded people on the US side, which is a a joke that writes its own punchline. I don’t think the concept of serious and forthright negotation is even conceivable to the US kleptocracy – any pretense thereof would be, in their minds, an opening PR stunt to set the stage for their usual midwit Machiavellianism with the end goal of developing some new impossibly complicated grift that would fatten their wallets and impress their friends at dinner parties while maintaining the status quo.
Living under these idiots is one thing, because there’s no negotiating with them. There’s just avoiding and tolerating them. But diplomacy with them? That must be exhausting. Like an practically minded husband arguing with a narcissistic trophy wife about her latest self-aggrandizing pet project, knowing on the one hand divorce means destroying their family and on the other hand giving her what she wants would be ruinous.
Soylent Green was set in 2022. Now it seems more possible than ever.
https://fivegunswest.blogspot.com/2021/12/the-1st-commandment-reads-human-flesh.html
I am of opinion that USA&Co. are focused here at tactical level. USA alone is more concern about three fronts opened simultaneously: Europe (Ukraine and Baltics), Taivan (China), and Africa (Russia and China). This scenario will ignite some other USA controlled crisis to change their course too e.g. Venezuela, Philipins, Kosovo, BiH, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia. And this will be check-mate for the century’s of dominion and end of rule of Western civilization.
Let me add possibility of Iran closing the Hormuz Strait, even destroying oil infrastructure of Gulf states across.