So finally the US has published its “Magnitsky List” (see full list here). Russia instantly retaliated with its own list (see full list here). Now what?
Nothing.
Let’s recap what happened. The US Republicans, now completely controlled by Jewish Neocons, tried to play electoral politics by showing that, unlike the Democrats, they are “tough on Russia”. First, this caters to the traditional Jewish hatred of everything Russia and, second, it also caters to the instincts of those Americans who want to see their country like some kind of cop of the universe. So the country which has legalized torture and the extra-judicial murder of “enemies” was now seriously expressing its outrage at the death of one man in disputed circumstances.
Obama and his Democrats wanted none of that since they perfectly understood how ridiculous the entire scheme was. This is why the actual number of names on the US list has gone from 60 to 240 to 280 to a mere 18 in the final version. Not only was the list very short, but no major Russian figure was involved. Something of a wet firecracker, really.
The Russian “retaliatory” list was equally short and limited in scope. The Russians fully understood that Obama had nothing to do with this nonsense, so they kept their response to the required minimum.
Now that this kindergarten-level episode is over, at least until the next elections in the USA, its time to turn back to serious, adult, politics and, first and foremost, the upcoming trip of U.S. National Security Adviser Thomas Donilon to Moscow were he will no doubt present a “grand bargain” to Putin: drop your support for Syria and we will re-deploy our anti-missile system further away from Russia and/or provide some written guarantees about its purpose.
This will be a tempting deal for Putin as it would appear to give him a big political victory. But, if my instincts about the man are correct, he will reject that deal because he is aware of two crucial facts:
a) the Russian “asymmetrical” response to the US deployment is a cost-effective way to deal with this threat.
b) if Syria falls to the US/NATO/al-Qaeda alliance, Iran and Russia are next.
There will probably be some very tough bargaining, but I want to believe that Putin will remain firm and reject the US offer.
We shall see soon.
The Saker
Saker Message:
what do you mean by point (a)?
@Anonymous: the Russians have announced that they will target the US missile and radar installations deployed close to the Russian border with their advanced Iskander-M missiles (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K720_Iskander) which is a cheap way to deal with the military threat presented by the American system. Second, a number of Spetsnaz units is being re-trained on what was their original mission: the destruction of NATO missile systems. No problem – they excel at that. Add to this more MIRVing of mobile and fixed missiles and the military aspect of this threat is taken care of, at low cost. There is, of course, a political aspect to all this: the Yanks are provoking the Russians doing to Russia what the Soviets did in Cuba, and they are doing that with the abject servility of the East Europeans. But that is not a threat for Russia, only a fact of life which the Russians will deal with purely economically and politically. Just look at what happened to the Ukraine under the rule of the nationalists, and you will see the future of East/Central Europe. Bottom line: the US, NATO and the EU are all bankrupt and none of them can help East/Central Europe economically.
I think that the Democrats understand all that, and this is why I expect them to try to use this (useless and wasteful) anti-missile program as a bargaining chip to get the Russians to let go of Syria in exchange for some kind of mutually face-saving way of get rid of this issue.
The Democrats are no less evil than the Republicans, but they are a whole lot more sophisticated, which makes them far more dangerous than the wannabe cowboys and Neocons running the Republican Party. Both parties are, of course, just two branches of the same 1% Party truly in power. Their methods differ, but their goal is the same.
Cheers,
The Saker
Saker, this topic came up at Moon of Alabama, and I made a comment about how, if the Russians really wanted to annoy the US they would have RT start producing documentaries on 9/11, US death squads in Iraq, US/Saudi sponsorship of al qaida, etc. Spend plenty of money on the documentaries, hire the best writers you can find, and broadcast them as much as possible and in every language. If the US complains, the Russians can always hide behind the “independent media” excuse.
I’m convinced there is a large potential audience for such an alternative view and RT could build a very large worldwide viewership if it provided it.
A decade ago, western media, and thus the western viewpoint, was totally dominant. Now it still enjoys a preponderance, but there is room to challenge it.
What do you think?
@Lysander: hi Lysander, hope all is well with you!
Putin, of course, knows exactly what happened on 9/11, but he is also very much a product of the Cold War and that war had *many* unwritten rules and semi-official “gentlemen agreements” which were very much observed by the Soviets and the Americans. This is why Putin actually ridiculed the 9/11 Truth movement saying that it was all nonsense. I do not expect Putin to say anything else. First, this would *REALLY* infuriate the Americans and, even worse, the Israelis who, I am pretty darn sure, played a key operational role in 9/11. Why would Putin ever take the risk of really angering such dangerous “friends” and “partners” for no real gain?
As for the Russian media, it did mention 9/11 MANY times. Russia Today is pretty clearly on the side of the Truth movement, so is the famous journalist Alexander Gordon (himself a Jew, by the way). Still, most of the Russia media was created in the 1990s and is firmly anti-Putin and pro-American, so don’t expect them to ever doubt the official narrative.
But for the other topics you list, they are already very much doing it, in particular Russia TV which now also airs in Arabic and, I think, Spanish. It even got the Americans really mad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xzlBmJcc9c
I think that this is rather fantastic, no?
Cheers,
The Saker
Thanks for the info, Saker.
The other idea that occurred to me is banning a list of people involved with Slobodan Milosovich’s death in captivity. They might not be Americans but I’m sure that to some NATO bigwig somewhere it would feel like a dart in the eye.
And of course those involved know exactly how guilty they are.
@Lysander:banning a list of people involved with Slobodan Milosovich’s death in captivity.
This suggestion has been made by several commentators. However, this, again would, I think, fall into the category of “over-reaction” from the point of view of a guy like Putin. People like him believe that this entire business of making lists is ridiculous and totally contrary to the informal spirit of US-Russian relations so they want to keep it at an absolute minimum. They will retaliate, but only *exactly* in kind in numbers and quality. Also, the Russians understand that Obama is totally aggravated by this crap, that this are the Republican Necons at work, and they don’t see the point of making Obama pay for the stupidity and lack of sophistication of his opponents. Simply put, this kind of posturing goes totally against the corporate culture of the Russian Foreign Ministy and they have made a decision to try to keep this at a minimum and not to do anything to escalate the situation unless, of course, they are forced to reaction by some stupid escalation from Congress (which that bonehead of McCain has already threatened).
Alexei Pushkov, a high-ranking Russian official, even declared that “Obama is a hostage” to this stupid “war of lists”, and that is pretty much an official statement.
I think that he is right, this nonsense is not Obama’s fault.
Cheers,
The Saker
It appears Putin has already put down the offer, in Putin’s inimitable style:
“…Meanwhile, Obama has despatched NSA Tom Donilon to Moscow with a letter addressed to President Vladimir Putin that was apparently oozing with goodwill. But Moscow seems unimpressed. Donilon didn’t get a one-on-one with Putin, who apparently walked into the room where Donilon was being heard out by a battery of Russian officials.
Meanwhile, Moscow forewarns that it will oppose any fresh western resolution on Syria in the UN Security Council. ..”
However, it looks like Obama was going to try & escalate either way – the article by MK Bhadrakumar is definitely worth a read:
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2013/04/16/obamas-choice-grab-syria-or-keep-nobel/
Russia & China need to get together to nip this in the bud.
My take is the Western/GCC alliance knows this is the last throw of the dice to keep their rolling salafi led regime change operation rolling – a full scale Western military intervention…
A decisive tipping point seems to have almost been reached by the Syrian’s, as the sheer level of weapons/money/mercenaries along with the giant jihadi recruitment drive has reached maximum saturation point, & they simply can’t throw any more at them.
The garbage thrown out by the likes of Hague & the Washington talking heads about opening the weapons floodgates is complete rubbish – they’ve been throwing everything they can handle at them for almost a year along with a constant stream of new jihadi’s into the fray & they are losing badly.
This looks to be the final throw of the dice…
@KenM: thanks for a lot of very interesting, if worrying, information. I take everything Bhadrakumar writes very seriously and that information also jives well with the information I get that the so-called “Syrian opposition” (aka al-Qaeda & Co.) is loosing the war. Russian analysts say that the government forces have become very skilled at killing the Jihadis, so while there is plenty of money to hire more from wrecked countries such as Libya or Egypt, and while there are still enough volunteers willing to go and fight for 500 bucks a month, they are not very effective and the government kills them roughly at the same rate as they come in. Hence, a direct foreign intervention is a real option, albeit an *EXTREMELY* dangerous one as public opinion in Russia is absolutely incensed at what is going on and by now most Russians have figured out that every Jihadi killed by Assad in Syria is one less terrorist to have to be killed in the Caucasus. Since there is zero chance of the Russian government sending in its military forces, there are now debates about whether or not to send in international brigades of volunteers like what happened during the Spanish civil war. I am not sure that the Kremlin will allow this to happen, but I am sure that the Kremlin will use all is power short of military intervention to prevent and/or oppose a US/NATO intervention in support of al-Qaeda in Syria. Ditto for the Chinese.
Keep in mind that something like 80% of the Syrian military is NOT, repeat, *NOT* involved in the combats right now. They are kept back and ready to fight a US/Israeli intervention. Neither has Assad ordered a mobilization. If the US/NATO openly intervenes the conflict will dramatically escalate.
God help the Syrian people and the Syrian armed forces!
Cheers,
The Saker
Good point about the bulk of the Syrian army still not in the battle, & I think that has been overlooked by almost everybody (except probably the Russians).
Another couple of stories to add to the mix:
The EU has apparently recognised the ‘Syrian opposition’ as the legitimate sellers of Syria’s oil reserves:
EU to allow purchases of Syrian oil from opposition
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/04/17/uk-syria-crisis-eu-idUKBRE93G0K620130417
The EU has flatly lost it’s mind, & I can’t believe I was once looking at them to provide a counterbalance to the US lunacy…
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And the US is moving an armoured division into Jordan…
That could be seen in a number of ways – They are worried about the salafi horde losing & going to overthrow the Jordanian government; They want to set the stage for controlling the fallout from airstrikes against Syria;
Or they just want to up the pressure.
Either way, things are coming to a critical juncture.
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On the other side of things, the Russian’s have launched a major task force from the pacific fleet which should be in the gulf area with part stopping in Syria in May. It’s supposed to be about piracy, but includes a major marine landing force & a number of powerful capital ships.
Russian Pacific Fleet ships to call at Syrian port of Tartus in late May – Navy Main Staff
http://rbth.ru/news/2013/04/06/russian_pacific_fleet_ships_to_call_at_syrian_port_of_tartus_in_late_may_24730.html
http://www.defencetalk.com/forums/navy-maritime/russian-navy-discussions-updates-8178-44/#post262463
They also have a major diplomatic mission to Lebanon happening soon by the Deputy Foreign Minister that looks interesting, & what what happens with Mediterranean fleet over the next month will be a major factor I believe.
“Orthodox Revival” in Russia’s Lebanon Policy
http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/orthodox-revival-russias-lebanon-policy
As the Chinese curse goes, May you live in interesting times…