Dear friends,
First and foremost, I want to thank you all for your donations! Your response as been tremendous and the sense of support I get from you guys is amazing!
Thanks so much!
Then, a short update from ‘my’ hurricane. The good news is that Erika is about to run unto some atmospheric shear and some dry air, which means that there is a good chance that she might weaken. The bad news is that she is heading for a landfall very close to where I live. And while there is no such thing as a “minor” hurricane, all the models so far agree that if she makes landfall as a hurricane, this will be as a “Category 1” which, while still potentially capable inflicting some serious damage, is not considered a “major” hurricane which would be Categories 3 through 5. All this is to say that while I do expect disruptions on Monday-Tuesday, I have no reason to suspect a major catastrophe (thank God!).
Erika is still far away and, currently, a rather weak tropical thunderstorm. See for yourself:
I will keep you posted.
Hugs and cheers to all,
The Saker
Update 2: for those interested, Erika has been evaluated by the specialists as NOAA as “ “Unusually Uncertain”. There is very good chance that the system might break-up and basically vanish, but there is also a good chance that it might gain some strength. But should the latter happen, there is now a growing model consensus that she will stay off-shore
and that, in turn, means that even if we get in the windfield of Erika, it will be on the left hand side, a much better place to be than on the right hand side.
So all in all, I am rather optimistic, at least for the time being :-)
Hugs to all,
The Saker
Update3: Great news! Erika looks weak and disorganized. It is also most unlikely to turn into a hurricane.
If she stays a tropical storm, this will just be a big rain event and the main risk associated with that is flooding. I should be okay :-)
Cheers,
The Saker
Update4: better and better! Not only is Erika getting weaker, but she is moving away.
God willing, I should get a restful week-end and just some rain next week.
Unless something big, unexpected and bad happens, and I don’t expect that, this will be the last update on this. Good.
The Saker
From that map it looks like the Lesser Antilles islands will be where it hits the worse.Florida, the Greater Antilles (Cuba,etc),and the Venezuelan coast, will get more of the tail end of it,unless it changes course and goes North or South.You should get a lot of rain,maybe some high winds too.But nothing really very serious.
The latest forecasts have Ekria recurving and staying offshore:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/AL0515W5.gif
If so, that would be the best possible outcome.
We shall see.
Cheers!
The Saker
Saker, did you know there was a hurricane off the coast of Manhattan the day of 9/11 ?
nope. which one?
hugs,
The Saker
Avoid unecessary risks !
so strange Saker, there were storms here on northwest coast as well today, Saturday.