The situation in the Ukraine continues to be characterized by complete chaos and a gradual and steady strengthening of the resistance in the East.
Following the attack by pro-regime forces on a resistance checkpoint in Slaviansk over the week-end Foreign Minister Lavrov has accused the revolutionary regime in Kiev of breaking the terms of the accord.
One could argue that this attack was decided by the Right Sector (that is the conclusion that the Russian-speakers have come to based on the weapons and documents they seized) and that the cannot control them. That is probably quite true (even though the Right Sector has denied being involved). But the regime also declared that the demonstrators which are currently occupying the Maidan square in Kiev have a permit and are there legally. Truly, whether the regime does not want to enforce the terms of the agreement or whether it cannot do so make very little difference to the Russian-speakers in the East: they still have to bury the same number of people and they still face the same threat. Take a look at what Right Sector thugs did to a Russian-speaker yesterday: (no translation needed)
And this is just one example amongst many.
Another telling video is the one of the man trying to stop an armored vehicle by standing in front of it: (again, no translation needed here either)
To be really honest, I have the feeling that a negotiated solution is pretty much impossible at this point. The East really has nobody to negotiate with.
At this point in time I see the following developments taking place:
1) The resistance in the East get more weapons, more men, more checkpoints, better communication, better organization and discipline.
2) Most cities in the East will organize some kind of referendum.
3) The government in Kiev will nothing done at all.
4) The Right Sector will continue to try to attack all those who dare disagree.
5) The Ukrainian military will not assist the regime in Kiev
6) The West will remain eyes wide shut and defend the regime and everything it does or does not do.
If the above is correct, the the East might as well forget any notion of federation and they should secede. If they do that, they would probably have to join Russia just for their own safety. As for Russia, if the East secedes and asks for protection, it will have no choice other than to provide either troops or some kind of security guarantees. Either way, the West will have a hysterical fit of truly monumental proportions and NATO will even probably organize some grand maneuver to show how determined the West is to resist should Moscow decide to invade Poland, Germany or even Portugal.
As for the regime in Kiev, it is really in complete disarray. Sometimes, this become outright comical. It actually went as far as publishing on open letter of the Ministry of Internal Affairs praising the Berkut police for their courage and asking them to help defend the Ukraine. If these neo-Nazis are now trying to get the help from the very same Berkut which they attacked, stabbed, stoned, shot at, defamed, burned, humiliated and even disbanded – this means that they are really desperate.
As for the West, it has discredited itself with the East to such a degree that I would find it hard to imagine that anybody would take its promises seriously.
If I am correct, we should now enter a phase of decay and break-up.
Stay tuned,
The Saker
Well, I hate to see the US win. I was truly hoping for a democratic solution here – that would have marked a more hopeful boundary to empire.
Doesn’t a split Ukraine mean a win for the empire, in that it moves further east, locks in another IMF loan and wrecks another economy for asset-stripping by Western carpetbaggers?
I know it loses Crimea and presumably everything east of the river, but it gains the western half and that’s more than it had when it started this game.
Meanwhile Russia ends up with crazies in a failed state on its very border (after eastern Ukraine takes refuge inside RF).
Perhaps it’s too much to hope that the eastern Ukies can secede and also remain independent? I suppose I should be praying for them rather than asking them to form the front line.
It’s just so depressing to see all this happening straight out of the CIA playbook.
Crazy Ivan says…
How nice to read the only possible inferences from my own comments (no boasting) wrote by The Saker himself. ;-)
I repeat myself umpteen times now:
If Ukraine wants to be or has to be a free and normal country, first and foremost the Banderovites’ and Fascist’s formations must be annihilated.
Partition will not help. Even Western Ukraine must be squeezed out of them. How? You know too well how.
Well I think you are still missing the understanding of what it means to have a failed state, it means: total chaos. No way to make money with anything. No real right or wrong and especially: if the east breaks away, or is watching mickey mouse – it does not really matter. If Russia is trying to help them: very unlikely I think.
RU is not a failed state. The question is not what they issue in the press at that moment. The important issue is: what are RUs real plans? Everybody may guess!
My best guess is – as Putin and others said before – they do not want Ukraine becoming member of NATO. Hence I think that how they deal with eastern Ukraine or the rest of Ukraine is mostly based upon THIS ONE SINGLE INTEREST.
Therefore IF they can make sure they gonna get to this goal “Ukraine stays free of NATO” by doing nothing, they will do so. If they think it can only be done by having a strong foothold on Ukraine territory, they might send in support, supplies or even troops. The less exposure, the better.
This – the Ukraine issue – is a geopolitical issue afterall!!!
Same time German media – and yes they are under heavy influence from the US – is starting to make an issue about the April 11th usage of chlorine gas in Syria. They say: Assad was using gas against his people – in a moment were he was/is winning the war. Not very plausible! And judging by the comments by German readers nobody over here is buying it anymore.
What this most likely means is that the USA/NATO/EU and friends are getting back at the Russians at the Syrian front. We should know in one week if they plan to make this the war they think they can win.
I am still not sure if the break out from US/EU/NATO by Russia finally will be successful. As written before I am not even sure if this is something good for the planet because its going back to the nation state and not going for a new international order were states becomes finally dissolved.
From my point of view there are two countries that have the power to tilt it this way or the other: China and Germany.
China, the Romulans in Star Trek, side with Russia, but only in a very passive way. RU said they would work together but there will be no military alliance. Germany officially still backs the US/EU/NATO – but many of its people are totally fed up with what is going on and “the lies of the media”. I predict a big increase in votes for the far right during election time for the EU.
There is still no new – progressive – movement visible that goes beyond this nationalistic bs from all sides.
Lets talk about secession of South-East Ukraine. I have the feeling in my guts, it will wont stop at Donetsk.
If the split happens it is going to be much bigger than just the Donbas region. It will be everything east of the Dneipr River plus Kherson, Mykolaev and Odessa oblasts. They have no choice but to join with Russia.
This something Russia did not want to see happen. It would put NATO right up to the river. It doesn’t matter that western Ukraine would be a failed state. The US would be willing to pay the costs if they got a strategic prize like that. After all, we were willing to invest nearly $1 trillion pursuing our strategic interests in Iraq, even though we had to leave in defeat. The point is that the US is very rich and can afford such nonsense.
What is hard to understand is that this was not really planned by the US. Obama and Kerry have just stumbled from one circumstance to the next without really thinking through the consequences of their policies in Ukraine.
Maybe the West will come to their senses and push for a realistic diplomatic solution. However, it is hard to see if any government in Kiev could control the Right Sector at this point. In any case, this is a sad day for Russia.
@ Anon
“
From my point of view there are two countries that have the power to tilt it this way or the other: China and Germany. “
Sorry, I need take your illusion.
Germany is dependent on Russians goodwill, so it wont move.
China don’t want a displeased neighbor. Not to mention, the Chinese leadership knows, he is next if Russia falls.
I forgot sign my previous post about South-East Ukraine.
Oracle 911
Interesting take, Saker. I was still hoping that the Ukraine can hold together, for the reasons Grieved mentioned.
@Anonymous 20:09:
China has long wanted a multipolar world, so there is little doubt that it will side with Russia. And Obama is provoking it to do so, with his pivot to the East.
Germany has its work cut out for it, because it is still occupied. To this day it can’t take a big step without USG’s approval. Germany needs to figure out a way to extricate itself from USG control. That will be difficult to do, because German elites are mostly brainwashed by the Americans.
What I think will happen:
-Eastern Ukraine will join Russia.
-Western Ukraine will join NATO
And both Russia and USA want this outcome.
Not a classic war, but the interest to control land must not be underestimate. To maintain his source of revenues Russia must cut completely acces to Black Sea to Exxon and other major ennemies oil companies. If possible with the minimun of troubles. I think that now the focus points will go Transnistria and south (Nikolaiew and Odessa). The next and maybe last trerritorial challenge for russia in these crisis.
This whole business is way over my pay grade, but i find it hard to believe the US has the physical, financial, and moral force to occupy the West Ukraine, aka Banderastan, or that they will get any real support from their European NATO allies, who understand very well that Russia is not an existential threat. It still seems to me that Russia is holding the aces here. It’s also conceivable that the 0.1 percent who actually determine US policy will make Obama an offer he can’t refuse, and IMHO it couldn’t happento a more deserving guy.
OT, but only parly so. MOA is down again,and now as an ‘unknown site.’ I wonder if it was getting too hot for the PTB, as this one is sure to become if things continue as they have. They murdered David Kelly. Taking down a site oughtto be chickenfeed for them.
@Demian: “Germany has its work cut out for it, because it is still occupied.”
I think this is crap.
What really is going on is that the “capitalists” in Germany – as in other countries – are split:
Old fashion (make money by exploiting ppls work) like Siemens and others are very much into joining Russia bc – old fashion – there is A LOT of money to be made. There influence on German politics is for the time being limited.
New school: the guys who make money by going for the casino. They are backing Merkel’s government and they are linked to the USA.
The battle between those two factions in Germany has not been decided yet.
My take: I prefer gamblers over people building bombs. Not! Both is bs!
Once it has been decided Germany will choose this side or the other – and the outcome will have little to do with the US.
Post at 20:09 was mine and I forgot to sign it with “R” from Germany.
There is something new going on. They call themselves “Friedensbewegung 2014” (peace movement 2014, using a leftist term from the past – and they are right wing).
Voice of Russia did an interview (in German): https://www.youtube.com/watch?list=PL7KDgVubf8lpoHg5SxxaOZQ-GP8PDVjRi&feature=player_embedded&v=v-9_ntPQ_5U
I hope this is available in English. If not: I am willing to translate it.
What this guys Lars Mährholz is trying to play is: he is not left or right but he is for peace. He is just a normal citizen.
However he plays another game. He tells a story about the fed who is a private bank and between the lines it is the jews once again.
The right has become smart how it presents itself – for stupid people. Querfront is the German term. The Nazis over here pretend to be normal people or leftists.
This kind of confusion and shadow play will continue until the left – which is without hope and any concept right now – will realize that they become totally obsolete unless they realize it is all about – as they always proclaimed but never really cared about – the ppl.
Never been in times where things are so in between.
“R” from Germany.
One of the pravi sektor attackers of the checkpoint outside Slaviansk was captured and he confessed to be a pravi sektor member. He claimed the attack was the idea of the group that did it, and that he didn’t shoot any one. This is one of the articles about this that I saw over the weekend.
Задержан боевик “Правого сектора”, атаковавший один из блокпостов (Detained militant “right sector”, attacking one of the roadblocks)
http://lifenews.ru/news/131665
I doubt the pravi sektor types are “out of control”. I think they are very much under control of their CIA/Mossad handlers. The zionazis trained these terrorists in Poland and set them up as their “enforcers”, just like they have done with death squads in Latin America or their “Muslim” terrorists. The Russians are obliquely telling the USA now that they know the Americans are behind the terrorist attacks and the bullying by the bandera nazis. Lavrov essentially told the Americans to to get their terrorists off the Ukrainians’ backs here:
Lavrov: US should face responsibility for powers it installed in Kiev
http://rt.com/news/us-responsibility-kiev-lavrov-788/
“Before giving us ultimatums, demanding that we fulfill demands within two or three days with the threat of sanctions, we would urgently call on our American partners to fully accept responsibility for those who they brought to power,” said Lavrov during a press conference with his colleague from Mozambique, Oldemiro Baloi.
All attempts to isolate Russia will lead to a dead end because Russia is “a big, independent power that knows what it wants,” he added
Meanwhile, the Russian FM also criticized statements from Western countries and Kiev’s authorities, which “invent possible and impossible arguments against Russia,” claiming that a large amount of Russian arms in the conflict zones proves Russian interference in Ukrainian affairs.
He called the statements absurd as Ukraine has traditionally used Russian-made arms.
“This statement is ludicrous. Everyone has Russian arms in Ukraine,” Lavrov said.
Meanwhile, he also said that TV outlets have reported that US arms were also found in Ukraine and illegal armed groups, not the Ukrainian army were in possession of these American arms…”
The Russians know the USA is controlling all these yahoos and is deliberately using the banderas to further destablise the Ukraine to get at Russia. The zionazis want civil war in the Ukraine. Hopefully, the Russians will remain one step ahead of these ziofascists, as with Crimea.
вот так
Do we know fate of the poor Russian man on the bridge? Did he survive or escape the thugs?
It is a disturbing video.
RE: Knut’s OT on MoA
Looks like ‘b’ pulled the plug. You won’t get that message unless the domain has been de-registered.
@Knut 21:06:
It looks like Typepad is having technical problems. I ran dig on MoA’s url, and got this alternative url, which works but uses default html formatting. (Unix ftw.)
NATO’s task is to drive wedge between Russia and its allies – deputy DM
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_04_21/NATOs-task-is-to-drive-a-wedge-between-Russia-and-its-allies-deputy-DM-4488/
Very frank appraisal.
вот так
Saker
who wins if the Ukraine splits along the East/West lines, with novo rossiya comprising the new ‘eastern’ Ukraine, with the west in the hands of the Kiev fascists. I suspect losing Crimea to Russia was a major blow to the CIA, but is hanging onto the remaining rump western state a consolation prize? Also, what happens to the national Ukrainian debt? Seems to me that many western banks will be vaporized (slava boga) along with some russian entities. Any comments?
The Dnieper River would have made an agreeable boundary 2000 years ago. But see how many cities now straddle it.
Either way, the West will have a hysterical fit of truly monumental proportions and NATO will even probably organize some grand maneuver to show how determined the West is to resist should Moscow decide to invade Poland, Germany or even Portugal.
The only official troops I see on the ground in Ukraine belong to Russia, so this doesn’t hold. So far, from my vantage, NATO and The West haven’t taken any of this too seriously. It’s the media, mainstream and alternative, that’s making it the big deal it isn’t. Ukraine’s a prominent Rorschach inkblot to which all manner of psychological interlopers and manipulators project their perspectives and perceptions. That says nothing of the true reality on the ground and behind the scenes, if there is any such reality.
Let’s assume your binary West/East analysis is correct, which of course it isn’t, Russia doesn’t have the capacity to annex Ukraine any more than the U.S. had the capacity to annex Iraq.
But it’s not that binary bind. Russia and the West will further destabilize Ukraine and divvy it up amongst each other like friendly Oligarchs. Who loses? Everyone but the Oligarchs, but mostly the common Ukrainians, Russian-sympathizing or not.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-21/why-putin-smiling-bond-markets-blockade-russia
On how those closing markets to the west are not going to work.
guys, in ukraine there is nothing to be won. get it!
The USA (essentially the NWO) has made it official. They are overtly at war with Russia in much the same manner they were with the USSR.
OPINION: US Revises Approach Toward Russia in Favor of New Cold War
http://en.ria.ru/world/20140421/189293775/OPINION-US-Revises-Approach-Toward-Russia-in-Favor-of-New-Cold.html
“The United States has revised its approach toward Russia away from cooperation in favor of a new Cold War, said Veronika Krasheninnikova, Director of the Center of International Journalism and Research with the International News Agency Rossiya Segodnya.
The shift was detailed in a New York Times article published Monday describing Washington’s roadmap for the future of US-Russia relations. The new approach, it says, is an “updated version of the Cold War strategy of containment.”
“The article can be safely regarded as [Washington’s] new official strategy that it will pursue with regard to Russia,” Krasheninnikova said.
“It sounds like a declaration of a new Cold War,” she added…”
Also:
OPINION: Unwilling to Appear Weak, Obama Ambassador Pick Curbs Ties With Russia
http://en.ria.ru/world/20140421/189293436/OPINION-Unwilling-to-Appear-Weak-Obama-Ambassador-Pick-Curbs.html
The claim in the article the pick of the “chickenhawk” as ambassador in order to not look weak is rubbish, though. It’s a further indication the “Anglo-zionist” plutocracy are intent on worsening relations, as part of their now overt hostilities towards Russia.
The info in these two articles supplement that NATO article, showing how their has been a complete change of stragey towards Russia by the ziofascists in the west. The attack by these oligarchs on the Ukraine was specifically designed to get this “new cold war” going and facilitate the pretexts for it.
The zionazi sods wont be going back now, this “cold war” is their last stand.
вот так
Gazprom buys KyrgyzGaz, pushing the pipelines further East. Russia’s competent and principled nation is attracting alliance with its neighbors, who seek stability and partnership in contrast to the imperial duplicity and submission on offer by the Anglo-America-Zionist-Empire.
http://journal-neo.org/2014/04/12/rus-gazprom-priros-ky-rgy-zgazom/
Comment to the question of anon @21:38 on who wins if the Ukraine would split. First, the west is foaming at the mouth because of the sudden gain of Crimea for Russia. That alone is a huge win for Russia.
The western part is what Russia can (and i guess wants to) live without anyway. The east as a coherent country, friendly to Russia and in a economic and security union together with some other friendly countries like Bearus is what i think the Russians would like the most (this is, and was, not possible as long as this hetrogenous country is not split at its naturally fault line). This outcome would end the generations-long struggle over who is in charge in Kiev, it’d be not so relevant anymore then. The west ukraine would become another state like the baltic states. Uniting the east with Russia (soon) would be, i think, a dangerous situation because 1.) The west could react recklessly short term and 2.) there would be no formal buffer between the west and the Russian Federation.
-yt
It looks Israel’s quislings are restarting their CW propaganda again:
‘Indications’ of new chemical weapons use in Syria – US
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_04_22/Indications-of-new-chemical-weapons-use-in-Syria-US-3030/
“We have indications of the use of a toxic industrial chemical, probably chlorine, in Syria this month, in the opposition-dominated village of Kafr Zita,” White House spokesman Jay Carney said. “We are examining allegations that the government was responsible.”
Sure you do, zionazi boitoi.
вот так
Anon @ 2014 20:09 said:
“I am still not sure if the break out from US/EU/NATO by Russia finally will be successful. As written before I am not even sure if this is something good for the planet because its going back to the nation state and not going for a new international order were states becomes finally dissolved.”
——-
An international order depends upon a hegemon being able to enforce it. The very nature of such order is to serve as a legitimizing tool of powerful countries and their actions. Weak members of this order cannot enforce its existence, thus it’s not worth the paper the treaties are written on.
The beliefs, ideals, culture, etc. of the hegemon will differ from the lesser members of this “international order”, thus it hurts democracy, or rule by the people, in these countries. Trying to “bring democracy” to the Middle East is an obvious example of the failure of having “international order” depend upon two or three countries for its enforcement.
The so-called nation state is nothing more than rule by locals, who adhere to their own beliefs, ideals and culture without outside forces (hegemons) interfering with the existing way of life.
If you are against “nation state” (self-rule by a defined people) then you can support the US in its pursuit of global dominance, because that’s what it leads to.
1. I thought the Right Sector goons gave the Junta an ultimatum – last week?
2. Was it not taught to the workers: Odessa is the pivot. If Odessa goes with the people, Banderastan is guaranteed to remain a failed state for the foreseeable future.
No access to the sea, means that Banderastan remains landlocked and isolated. NATO cannot help them, except through Poland (and that would be a logistical endeavor).
The East secedes, the West gets Nato. So the end result is Nato troops in Ukraine, just a little farther West than planned.
But the West will be a complete economic and political basket case. So what, says Victoria Nuland, we have won.
Must SE Ukraine join with Russia? Not only would that be very expensive for Russia in the long-run, but the usual suspects would just do more of what they’re already doing, and not just in Novo Rossiya. Maybe it’s wishful thinking but I keep hoping there’s some way for Russia to protect that area without officially absorbing it.
Meanwhile, here is an excellent piece analyzing Putin’s moves in light of Sun Tzu:
http://www.pambazuka.org/en/category/features/91369
How now to win against a predator with no one clear leader, a decentralized and seemingly inexhaustible supply of depraved, drugged-up mercenaries, no ability to recognize defeat and a proven willingness, in the absence of victory, to content itself with ongoing chaos and destruction?
The putrid ‘The Guardian’ is running the Syrian chemical weapons lie again, today, using a creature that I believe is one of the most vicious liars of them all in this context-Martin Chulov. The Guardian maintains a menagerie of liars, presstitutes in the argot, who in my opinion represent the lowest of the low, but who are even more dangerous than the psychotics at Fox News or in our local Murdoch rags, because they maintain this hysterical charade of representing a ‘liberal’ voice.
Stay calm. The Ukraine gov’t is disintegrating.
Putin holds all the cards and won’t be goaded into foolish aggressiveness.
Ex army sapper says
Putin will be in China comes may to finally clinch the long awaited gas pipeline deal. Rumour has it that a major announcement is also anticipated jointly with the Chinese. The only person in the world who could pull the rug on the Empire is Putin. The Empire derives its strength thru the Petrol dollar by scaring the Arabs into demanding all payments in oil/gas be paid in us dollars by unleashing their Israeli guard dogs and arming them to the teeth. Any wonder why as long as there is petroldollar, there will never be peace in the middle east.
Russia is currently the largest oil exporter in the world, not to mention her monopoly of gas in Europe. Russia certainly did not sign an agreement with Henry Kissinger in1973 on the use of petrol dollar like Saudi Aruba in exchange for the Empire’s protection!
I can see Putin and China agreeing to make all payments of oil/gas in any currency and/or gold either than petrol dollar. This would follow by Putin telling the EU to do likewise. The Saudis have had it with the Empire due to Obama’s support of Iran, and may be tempted to do so to protect their interests and assets.
Once the other OPEC members get cold feet and move away from Petrol dollar, that will cause the collapse of the US dollar and the paper US economy. Scantions will come back to haunt the Empire in a way that it had never dream of. Looking forward to Putin’s China visit.
There is no telling what Kiev, after completely throwing away their opportunity to benefit from the Geneva agreement, will do next. My sense, however, is that the Russians, having leaned over backward to be conciliatory, are very nearly out of patience.
If the Russians move on the ground, there are likely to be scenes such as were described by Hans Rudel in “Stuka Pilot” when his squadron was ordered, in Nov 1942, to succor the Romanian (I think 4th)Army against a Soviet offensive. Flying toward the battle (Junkers 87s flew low and slow) Rudel came upon masses of blown clad soldiers fleeing across the empty steppe. A few miles further on he came to the abandoned Romania gun positions and trenches. Only then, did the Soviets, still well out across the steppe, come into view. A more contemporary scene was perhaps that when Georgian forces opposite Abkhasia, probably on the third day of the war, learned that the Russians and local militia were on the move. They abandoned their armor, crowded into whatever else would roll and took off.”We thought that the Americans sent military trainers” said one Russian,”but they must have sent track coaches.”
The alternative to flight, of course, is to surrender or arrange to stay passively in bases or positions. But I have a hard time imagining that most Ukrainian units in the easternmost oblasts would fight much. There might be some difficulty–though probably not all that much-in Kharkiv. Dnipropetrovsk, with the iron mines and the steel complex at Kryvi Rih, is where 6th Corp is HQd and it might not be possible to avoid a fight.
But the most dangerous (potential) theater is surely Odessa which borders Transnistria and is too strongly Russian to abandon. It is here that the West will put up its most determined defense, with Moldovia swarming with NATO troops, ostensibly on maneuvers and US/NATO vessels poking about offshore.
My sense is that international capital and the people moving the chess pieces are not really all that interested in the eastern Ukraine. The real prize, as it has always been,is found in the vast, fertile plains of western Ukraine. And is it not possible that the various, so called ‘activists’ of the western oblasts, knowing this, want a war that will leave them enough stronger to become the sellers, conceivably the defenders of this great heritage.
Ex army sapper says
Putin will be in China comes may to finally clinch the long awaited gas pipeline deal. Rumour has it that a major announcement is also anticipated jointly with the Chinese. The only person in the world who could pull the rug on the Empire is Putin. The Empire derives its strength thru the Petrol dollar by scaring the Arabs into demanding all payments in oil/gas be paid in us dollars by unleashing their Israeli guard dogs and arming them to the teeth. Any wonder why as long as there is petroldollar, there will never be peace in the middle east.
Russia is currently the largest oil exporter in the world, not to mention her monopoly of gas in Europe. Russia certainly did not sign an agreement with Henry Kissinger in1973 on the use of petrol dollar like Saudi Aruba in exchange for the Empire’s protection!
I can see Putin and China agreeing to make all payments of oil/gas in any currency and/or gold either than petrol dollar. This would follow by Putin telling the EU to do likewise. The Saudis have had it with the Empire due to Obama’s support of Iran, and may be tempted to do so to protect their interests and assets.
Once the other OPEC members get cold feet and move away from Petrol dollar, that will cause the collapse of the US dollar and the paper US economy. Scantions will come back to haunt the Empire in a way that it had never dream of. Looking forward to Putin’s China visit.
Saker, can you comment on this?
https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&tab=core&id=2bb691b61c59be3a68180bd8c614a0cb&_cview=1
Tender for the renovation of a school in Sevastopol, by order of U.S. Navy. Published in Sept 2013, modified on April 2014.
What could this be?
@Ex army sapper
“Once the other OPEC members get cold feet and move away from Petrol dollar, that will cause the collapse of the US dollar and the paper US economy.”
There is certainly something to it, because demand for the US$ would lessen. This is too one dimensional though.
A huge demand for the US$ comes from the fact that it is the de-facto reserve currency of many countries and institutions (US bonds). As long as there is no _better_ currency, replacing the US$, it will still be the prettiest of the ugly sisters. Big money needs to park somewhere. So i think, predicting the fall of the US$ is oftentimes wishful thinking.
What is true is that Russia, China and other countries try to diversify, partly away from the US$. This is more to protect themself in the long run and to lessen their exposure to the financial system of the west.
-yt
Demian @21:36
From typepad: “Update 21-April-2014 9:45AM PT: We’re sorry to inform you that Typepad was attacked again overnight. Our team has been working around the clock to restore service. While most blogs are available and the application is up, some mapped domains are showing a message that the domain is “unknown”, but there is no problem with the domain itself. We’re working to correct the error on our end.”
MoA is a mapped domain. Apparently Typepad is still having problems.
Demian @21:36
From typepad: “Update 21-April-2014 9:45AM PT: We’re sorry to inform you that Typepad was attacked again overnight. Our team has been working around the clock to restore service. While most blogs are available and the application is up, some mapped domains are showing a message that the domain is “unknown”, but there is no problem with the domain itself. We’re working to correct the error on our end.”
MoA is a mapped domain. Evidently Typepad is still having trouble.
Demian @21:36
From typepad: “Update 21-April-2014 9:45AM PT: We’re sorry to inform you that Typepad was attacked again overnight. Our team has been working around the clock to restore service. While most blogs are available and the application is up, some mapped domains are showing a message that the domain is “unknown”, but there is no problem with the domain itself. We’re working to correct the error on our end.”
MoA is a mapped domain. Evidently Typepad is still having trouble.
Demian @21:36
From typepad: “Update 21-April-2014 9:45AM PT: We’re sorry to inform you that Typepad was attacked again overnight. Our team has been working around the clock to restore service. While most blogs are available and the application is up, some mapped domains are showing a message that the domain is “unknown”, but there is no problem with the domain itself. We’re working to correct the error on our end.”
MoA is a mapped domain. Evidently Typepad is still having trouble.
shargash
Around these parts they call that tender, A Smoking Gun. The putsch was planned well in advance and the US Navy expected to be owning Sevastopol very soon.
Good find my fellow Anonymii.
Some of the comments are to much coloured by the belief induced by the relentless Western propaganda that Russia is a weak, poor, third world country (with nukes!), which cannot withstand the wrath of the Empire. I think that is the dangerous thinking which may induce the West to believe that their continuous provocation would not have consequences for them. See the sanctions for example. A failed state in Ukraine would be a greater problem for the West than for Russia. I doubt that the West is willing or able to assume the maintenance of a parasitic state just to spite Putin. And it is even more doubtful that it will integrate in EU/NATO an openly fascistic, xenophobic, homophobic regime (unless they actually prepare in secret a fascist revolution in Europe and the Banderistas could lend them a hand! – I know that this is preposterous).
An integration of Eastern Ukraine in RF would be a loss for the oligarchs and that is the reason behind the hysterics of their counterparts in the West.
WizOz
@ tom garrett
”My sense is that international capital and the people moving the chess pieces are not really all that interested in the eastern Ukraine. The real prize, as it has always been, is found in the vast, fertile plains of western Ukraine.”
Max Keiser had an interview with JP Sottile of Newsvandal.com about Big Oil and Big Ag in Ukraine that are hoping to exploit the Ukrainian agricultural sector. Start listening at about 12:30 min into the interview.
http://www.maxkeiser.com/2014/04/kr590-keiser-report-ukraines-big-oil-big-angst/
Я
Saker, imo a fascinating video posted at goingtotehran.com, a lot of detail about the oil and gas market in geopolitical terms, including a refutation of those advocating the US can supplant Russia in providing gas to Europe. The Q&A is also informative.
http://goingtotehran.com/energy-independence-and-the-perpetuation-of-americas-hegemonic-delusions
Saker, not sure if you are familiar with this website. I thought I’d post it anyway. It’s in Russian.
Michael Khazin (Михаил Хазин) is a Russian economist who has long predicted a collapse of the US dollar as a world reserve currency. He wrote a book on the subject “Закат империи доллара и конец Pax Americana” (“Twilight of the Dollar Empire and the end of Pax Americana”).
The site keeps up with current political and economic processes in Russia and around the world and provides weekly overviews of the world markets.
http://worldcrisis.ru/
Я
Some classic Pepe analysis on the developments:
The US State Department, via spokeswoman Jennifer Psaki, said that reports of CIA Director John Brennan telling regime changers in Kiev to “conduct tactical operations” – or an “anti-terrorist” offensive – in eastern Ukraine are “completely false”. This means Brennan did issue his marching orders. And by now the “anti-terrorist” campaign – with its nice little Dubya rhetorical touch – has degenerated into farce.
Full article can be found here –
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article38295.htm
@ 21 April, 2014 23:25
” As long as there is no _better_ currency, replacing the US$, it will still be the prettiest of the ugly sisters. Big money needs to park somewhere. So i think, predicting the fall of the US$ is oftentimes wishful thinking.”
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2013/05/what-is-freegold.html
The world central banks are moving to gold as the reserve asset. It can absorb big strategic money by the elasticity of price. The Chinese are rapidly building a gold reserve and EU already considers gold its number one reserve asset.
The world intends to free gold from moneyness so it can be an unencumbered asset, while fait is maintained for transactions. Gold will be used to settle international accounts. The fofoa blog has explored these issues in depth for many years.
The world wishes to stop paying tribute to the USD Empire and they will. All USD assets will be devalued. This is impossible for those of USD countries to understand, but people who have experienced the collapse of currencies, such as the rouble will understand, nothing is forever and it is time to die for the USD. Gold is on the move in preparation for this event of the new century.
Unfortunately for those with USD promises to pay, they will witness their paper burn along with dreams of world domination. The USD is the mechanism of tribute, challenged by Russia in full view of the kneeling world.
Bye-Bye-American-Pie!
@Nora 23:04:
I really enjoyed that most informative piece. Thanks!
I wonder if Obama has even heard of Sun Tzu?
Anonymous @ 22 April, 2014 00:45
“The world central banks are moving to gold as the reserve asset. It can absorb big strategic money by the elasticity of price. The Chinese are rapidly building a gold reserve and EU already considers gold its number one reserve asset.”
The big elephant in the room remains China’s $1.2 trillion holdings of the US treasury securities. Despite some claims I don’t see significant movement to reduce it.
http://www.treasury.gov/ticdata/Publish/mfh.txt
Я
@-yt
21 April, 2014 23:44
“A huge demand for the US$ comes from the fact that it is the de-facto reserve currency of many countries and institutions (US bonds). As long as there is no _better_ currency, replacing the US$, it will still be the prettiest of the ugly sisters.”
Correct, but this line of thought is itself one-dimensional. It assumes that CURRENCY is MONEY, which is not correct.
There is present now and always has been in the recorded modern history the real money – gold and silver.
The US will collapse and become irrelevant – it is a certainty, just as did 599 fiat currencies before it. It’s (rapidly diminishing) reserve status will not protect it.
Russia holds the economic atomic device in this economic scenario – gold for oil. It really is as simple as that and all the players know it.
Once gold is demanded as payment for oil, the US dollar will immediately be consigned to the historial artifact dustbin along with the 599 others.
The currently supressed price of gold will reach levels never contemplated by the ‘experts’ who are in present reality mere mouthpieces for the secret banking elite who really control the current world order.
When the shift to gold commences the US will truly be the hollow empire because it has none. Doubt this is true? Surely Fort Knox has the 8000 odd tonnes at the disposal of the US for such calamities?
The US has refused an audit of its claimed gold resevres for about 50 years. The gold is gone – been sold off to support the failing dollar.
The “price” of gold at this moment in history is determined by worthless paper contracts. When critical mass is reached and the wider population understand what has happened behind the scenes real price discovery will occur – and it won’t be by the farce that is the US financial markets.
The intrinsic value of the fiat paper will also be determined.
Pity the ordinary people in the US when that happens – which could be as soon as a Russian gold for oil payment system.
The only real money is gold and silver – the US dollar is well on the way to reaching its real value.
@ Demian & Nora
I read this peace over the weekend. Very elegant and educational.
Jean-Paul Pougala is an African (Cameroonian) intellectual, historian and Geo-political analyst who lived 20 years in Italy, 13 in China and visited 22 African countries. He self-describes himself as a disciple of Italian philosopher and mathematician Giordano Bruno.
Я
Some people in the MSM see the writing on the wall:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/obama-white-house-lost-ukraine-093000155.html
I really like this part:
“Success in Ukraine was never in the cards for this administration. But it slipped beyond all grasp late last week, when the provisionals ordered a military operation to quell dissent in the numerous eastern cities where pro–Russian sentiment tends to be strong.
There is no coming back when your soldiers and security forces not only refuse orders once in the east, but volunteer their ammunition, guns, tanks, artillery, and personnel carriers to the locals, saying they have no stomach for the mission. Readers may disagree, but I will never take the provisionals in Kiev as other than the opportunistic imposters I took them to be from the first. The first conclusion here: Kiev should get no money from anyone until a proper government is elected to office. “
@Nora 23:04:
Thanks for the link to one of the best pieces I have seen on strategy in Ukraine.
The great games of strategy are Go, Chess, Backgammon, and Poker. I wonder if Sun Tzu played Go?
from Anna news earlier:
Похоже, что данный Путиным срок в один месяц, по истечении которого Москва будет вынуждена перекрывать подачу газа Украине без предоплаты, подстегнул хунту, и она начала наращивать его отбор как в последний раз. Если в начале апреля Украина отбирала по 30 млн кубометров в сутки, то после 17 апреля это значение выросло до 115 млн. Естественно, об оплате из Киева нет ни звука – уже просто нет смысла. Денег все равно нет.
Seems, junta is preparing for the gas shortage, pumping almost 4 times the previous amount daily, since April 17.
The new laws governing Ukraine’s May 25 elections are, erm, interesting. Unsurprisingly, they are in clear violation of the Code of Good Practice in Electoral Matters approved by the Council of Europe and yes, Ukraine is a member. Let’s see if that matters.
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2014/04/21/presidential-elections-ukraine-held-violation-council-europe-norms.html
Demian & Nora,
It looked to me like Putin added a Napoleonic twist to SunTzu’s teachings…
“Never interrupt your enemy while he is making a mistake”
Erebus
@anon: 00:45
Gold was a commodity since its discovery. Gold was an asset in central banks all the time. Gold was money at times too, really not all the time and not anywhere. Having more gold will help central banks, but it won’t, for instance, make the Euro survive.
Gold has its virtues and i like it for what it is, it will play a big part in the financial protection of those institutions and individuals wise enough to foresee problems with governments and the debt-based money system (everyone should see these problems, at least since 2008). Also i think it will go up to new highs when the current move lower stops. Pretty soon.
As i especially said ‘big’ money needs to park somewhere. _Right now_ it needs that deep market that only the US Treasury Bonds can provide. For that, the gold market as it is right now, is not big enough. Now, one could come and say, well then gold needs to adjust in price to, let’s say 1 troy ounce would be worth the buying power of US$ 30.000. That, i think won’t happen anytime soon. And if it happens to go to that number, then not with todays buying power.
Smaller currencies will continue to go bust (and every currency is smaller as in how much capital can it absorb). I think that the US$ will go bust too, but as compared to todays other currencies it might do that last, not first.
Yes, i think that gold will play a bigger role in settlement in the future and that it will play a new role in a new monetary system.
fofoa did not give me too much when i looked at it some time ago. Some communities around gold and alternative economic theories are sometimes developing esoteric traits. Can’t remember if that was one of them though, only that i deemed it being uninteresting to me.
-yt
-yt
@22 April, 2014 01:58
And again -yt misunderstands the nature of gold.
By no measure is it a commodity – it is a store of value.
The evidence of this is that not one fiat currency (or fiat based instruments such as treasury bonds) have EVER survived. Gold will be the last man standing – again.
The assumption that gold cannot be repriced is a grave miscalculation and one that is commonly made by students of modern (failed) economics.
The ‘big’ money will move to gold just as surely as night follows day (if it has not already).
The true value of gold will be measured in ounces not worthless fiat paper.
“How can top US leaders be perfectly aware of what is written in Ukrainian on a piece of paper glued to a synagogue in Donetsk, and not know what was written in Haaretz and The New Republic? These endorsements are strong evidence of complicity in the forgery, since it is not credible that Kerry, Rice and Obama were too innocent to suspect a forgery.
I call this the smoking pop-gun.”
From a very good piece in CounterPunch by the very good Diana Johnstone: http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/04/21/obama-endorses-a-forgery/
I read somewhere that China had a deal with the Yanukovich government to buy (lease?) a large area of farmland. Was this true? And, if so, can anyone here comment on this angle? I haven’t read anything about this since the start of the ‘crisis’. Seems like the scuttling of that deal could be a side effect that was desired by the US.
I thank you for this rational discussion and information about the Ukraine. I believe MoA is under cyber attack, and your discourse on this subject is critical. Thanks!
Several comments have suggested an independent East Ukraine and a NATO West Ukraine.
First, the NATO admission criteria only permit states that have no border conflicts. Unless NATO revises its rules this makes Ukraine inadmissible due 1) question over status of Crimea; 2) question of partition and resulting borders.
Second, NATO is a “defensive” military alliance, not a social sector organization, or an NGO. I do not believe NATO to have any capacity to handle West Ukraine, or assist it.
Third, given the state of EU finances, I doubt the EU would welcome the costs of assisting a “West Ukraine.” The EU states have their own fiscal problems and high levels of unemployment. I cannot envisage any of them contributing to a failed Ukrainian state. I cannot see any benefits accrue to them for such action and I believe the accountants will over-ride any belligerent NATO Generals.
This status of Ukraine as a Potemkin state also makes it unlikely Russia would wish to immediately incorporate Ukraine in the RF. I believe Putin will also seek to avoid a military intervention if this is at all possible.
I think a lot of EU capitals will have bureaucrats burning the midnight oil asking how did we arrive at this state of affairs, who looted Ukraine and who spent $5 billion to dump this problem in our lap. As that answer becomes clear to them I think they may begin to reassess their role as subservient lapdogs in a unipolar world which does not really provide them with much in the way of long term benefits but which does saddle them with a set of intractable problems.
Cheers!
Saker et al,
The next time some warmongering goof in the West starts making crazy claims that the US & NATO militaries are better equipped than the Russian military I would give them this interesting reading material to shut them up:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/apr/20/tactical-advantage-russian-military-shows-off-impr/
What’s happening with comments saker? There have been 2 submitted by me in the past few hours and not posted. They were on topic and in response to ‘-yt’ about global finance and the use of gold. Surely the new policy has not restricted the comments…?
NATO may undertake wiser politics without Rasmussen – Vladimir Putin
http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_04_21/NATO-may-undertake-wiser-politics-without-Rasmussen-Vladimir-Putin-4201/
Very nice take down of the POS Rasmussen. A person whose lack of character and totally valueless immorality puts him in the same category as the worst of the nazi quislings.
вот так
Я
@22 April, 2014 01:17
“Despite some claims I don’t see significant movement to reduce it.”
Not correct – China has actively been divesting dollar based assets since about October last year with the “de-Americanising” the world comments.
TBs have been sold off each month since then from the Chinese holdings. Gold imports into China have been at unprecedented levels for several years, but 2013 was a record.
It would not make any sense to dump TB’s into the market other than slowly otherwise they would become instantly devalued.
The Chinese will act in their own long term interests – they do after all have a civilisation that is older than all the other current western mob combined.
Once further gold is unavailable from western vaults then the remaining TBs will be liquidated.
We are witnessing right now the end of the American empire play out. Relatively slowly at the moment but it will accelerate quite rapidly from here on and be complete when the dollar fails (which will have a direct correlation to the ‘price’ of gold).
The major players know it and the biggest risk right now is the hidden elite using the US military to start a major conflict. Doubt this – then you don’t know the real history of genesis of every major conflict for the past 200 years. The banking families control the world – we just live in it.
Nora
Thanks for posting a link to the Johnstone article, and the one earlier on Sun Tzu strategy as related to the Ukraine.
Anonymous said…22 April, 2014 02:38
“I believe MoA is under cyber attack”
I believe somebody has already posted here that Typepad, a company used by the MOA site and many other sites, had been attacked. I seriously doubt any of the zionazi usual suspects who run DDOS attacks for political reasons (in addition to the crooked monetary reasons) targeted MOA, since the site denies and actively blocks discussion of zionist influence.
вот так
Could someone clarify the term MoA please?
@WizOz
“And it is even more doubtful that it will integrate in EU/NATO an openly fascistic, xenophobic, homophobic regime”
Well, Hungary is already there.
A decent article, but I can’t help but wonder if (further) succession is really the best strategy over the longterm…
That would still end up with a rump state of “Ukraine” with the western and perhaps central regions that would be right on Russia’s borders and be another hostile reactionary NATO outpost.
Instead of focusing on independence it might be wiser for the Southeastern forces to set up a rival government which would claim sovereignty over the whole of Ukraine. Whether direct Russian intervention is needed or not I don’t know. Local militia and military defectors may be enough….
But I think the end goal should be the complete collapse of the fascist junta in Kiev and the restoration of a legitimate government.
I believe that as the Kiev regime implements more and more of the austerity and looting demanded by the IMF it will be harder and harder for them to maintain any sort of base of popular support – even in Galicia.
IMO, they’re desperate to maintain sectarian conflict in order to cling to power as long as possible.
My two cents anyway….
mezaar at 22 April, 2014 04:10
Don’t get hysterical mezaar. Those are just noises coming from the US military industrial complex trying to convince the US government to invest more money into weapons systems.
We are witnessing right now the end of the American empire play out. Relatively slowly at the moment but it will accelerate quite rapidly from here on and be complete when the dollar fails (which will have a direct correlation to the ‘price’ of gold).
The major players know it and the biggest risk right now is the hidden elite using the US military to start a major conflict. Doubt this – then you don’t know the real history of genesis of every major conflict for the past 200 years. The banking families control the world – we just live in it.
Last time I checked, whenever the value of gold is reported, it’s worth is reported in dollars. On the other hand, I don’t see the value of dollars denominated in gold. This tells me the source of the value now emanates from dollars, not gold, so I think you’re incorrect. Gold’s finished except for adornment and use in manufacturing. I know gold bugs don’t want to hear that, but that’s the way it is.
Also, are we to believe that these banking elites are unable to bring Putin to heel? That somehow he’s been able to evade their ubiquitous reach and grasp? I’m not buying it. If these bankers are as powerful as you say, Putin would have been a still birth. Putin’s convenient and serves a purpose every bit as much as Obama does.
Dear Nora,
Thank you for this piece
“Meanwhile, here is an excellent piece analyzing Putin’s moves in light of Sun Tzu:
http://www.pambazuka.org/en/category/features/91369“
– very interesting.
Rgds,
Veritas
anonymous 5:25,
MoA is Moon of Alabama, a site run by a guy in Hamburg I believe. He allows criticism of the US/UK but criticism of Zionists and Zionism is verboten. His posts can be quite good and some of his commenters likewise, also good URLs, but it’s a comfy home for spooks and sayanim and you have to take a lot of the comments with, um, many grains of salt. I would also add that his level of analysis is significantly less insightful, detailed or profound than what Saker provides here.
Response to Tom Kenney inquiry:
“I read somewhere that China had a deal with the Yanukovich government to buy (lease?) a large area of farmland. Was this true? And, if so, can anyone here comment on this angle? I haven’t read anything about this since the start of the ‘crisis’. Seems like the scuttling of that deal could be a side effect that was desired by the US”
Definitely something the US would have desired
I have done some work on that subject at my blog
links and brief relevant excerpts
http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2014/01/ukraine-cargill-acquires-stake-in.html
Cargill and GMO’s in!
Choice in food consumption- out
http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2014/02/the-new-great-game-why-ukraine-matters.html
“China looks to Ukraine as a secure source to satisfy its ravenous appetite for food and energy. It’s lending the country billions of dollars to upgrade farm irrigation and develop coal gasification. In December, Yanukovych and Chinese President Xi Jinping gripped and grinned while signing a “treaty of friendly cooperation.” According to the official China Daily, in addition to agriculture and energy, they agreed to collaborate on infrastructure, finance, high-tech, aviation, and aerospace”
Additional links to China suing Ukraine in response
Do hope this helps?