[Quick note: I want to begin this SITREP with a correction to something which I mentioned in the last SITREP abouy General Bezler: even though his signature did appear to figure on the infamous statement of the four commanders declaring their loyalty to “General” Korsun, the information that he had been arrested is, according so sources qualified as “solid” by Colonel Cassad, not true. Since I have no reason to doubt Cassad’s sources, I assume that this is true. I have no idea why/how Bezler’s signature was found on this document, maybe it was a fake? Either way, Bezler even made a short video today making fun of Ukie not-so-special forces. In contrast, Korsun’s arrest is apparently confirmed. Now let’s turn to the SITREP proper – The Saker]
War?
The big event of the week was, I think, Poroshenko’s speech to what I call the Imperial Senate (aka Joint Session of Congress). I have made the full transcript available here and here. I don’t think that it is worth carefully parsing this text, so I will just mention the few elements which are absolutely obvious to me:
1) This text was written by a US Neocon. It even included such typical US-propaganda gimmicks as the “personal story” to give a human touch and moment carefully crafted to generate applause. So no only what the author of this rant American, but he/she was for sure a diehard Neocon.
2) This text was a lame attempt at copying Churchill’s “Iron Curtain” speech, except that Poroshenko is no Churchill, Putin no Stalin and Novorussia no Soviet Union. Nonetheless, the message was clear: Russia represents a planetary threat to freedom, democracy, liberty, human right, free speech, etc. In fact, according to Poroshenko the choice is not between two civilizations but between civilization and barbaric darkness.
3) The US deep state is by now clearly aware of the immense challenge presented to it by Putin’s “Eurasian Sovereignist” Russia and the movement it leads (BRICS+SCO+etc.). The fact that it has to use such absolutely over the top rhetoric is a clear sign of fear and the Neocons are now freaking out. The danger for them is becoming very real (more about that below).
4) More than anything else, this speech proved to me that the only viable goal for Russia is regime change in Kiev. This is a message I will hammer in over and over again – regime change in Kiev is a vital, arguable existential, priority for Russia.
5) Far from being any kind of patriots or nationalists, the Ukie “nationalists” are subservient puppets of the West, willing to service AngloZionist interests with less shame then a old prostitute services her clients. For all the “Glory to the Ukraine, to the Heroes Glory!” slogans, the Ukies are the cheapest prostitutes on the planet with no self-respect whatsoever.
The entire speech had a Disney-like feel to it: on one side, the forces of Light, lead by the USA in white shining armor and on the other, the forces of Darkness, lead by Russia crawling out of the Asian steppes like Lovecraft’s Chtuhlu. Infantile to the extreme, the purpose of the speech was to induce a planetary war against Russia and her allies or, at the very least, to contain that 21st century Mordor. Poroshenko went as far as referring to now completely disproved lies (such as Russia invading Georgia in 2008) and hinting that Moldova, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Baltic States, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria. could/would be next. Clearly the main can lie with an ease which any used car salesman would envy.
Then there is the issue of the standing ovations. Less than Obama and less than Netanyahu, but still a lot (12 I think). The Imperial Senators appeared to stand longer and clap harder each time Poroshenko drifted off into some kind of crazy nonsense. A scary sight, really.
Now we all know who runs the US Congress (AIPAC) so what this is, really, is a declaration of war by AIPAC and the Zionist faction of the AngloZionist Empire. The Anglos are far less enthusiastic as shown by Obama’s refusal to send weapons to the Ukies. Just like in 2008 and that other lunatic – Saakashvili – I get the feeling that there might be a lot of behind the scenes Neocon “parallel diplomacy” going on. If not, why would Obama’s bosses tell Poroshenko to ask for weapons they don’t want to give him in the first place? My guess is that there is a lot of reluctance in the Pentagon and possibly in the intelligence community to get the USA fully committed behind a regime which might not be around in a few months.
Whatever may be the case, Poroshenko’s speech felt like an infantile but nasty declaration of war. Clearly, there are those who are very concerned that peace might break out
Peace?
Version 1:
On the “peace front” a number of interesting things happened. First, on September 14th sixteen business representatives from the USA, Russia, Germany and the Ukraine met for a private meeting with the Chairmen of the World Economic Forum Klaus Schwab. In attendance were some very big player including the hyper-notorious Anatolii Chubais (for a complete list or participants, see here). They adopted the following document:
(You can also download the document from here.) The publication of this document resulted in something as predictable as it was amazing. The “Putin is selling out Novorussia” choir immediately denounced this document as a total betrayal of Novorussia and a victory for the oligarchs. I said that this was a predictable reaction because by now it is pretty clear that these folks will denounce any and all negotiated documents (Agreement, Memoranda, Treaty or any other type) as a “sellout of Novorussia”, “victory for the oligarchs” and “capitulation by Putin”. Still, what was absolutely amazing to me that apparently they seem to notice #6:
Guarantee the security and sovereignty of Ukraine by the international community. Recognize the supremacy of international law above national interests. Recognize the right of self-determination but encourage to consider a policy of military non-alignment for Ukraine, comparable to the status of other European countries (i.e. Finland, Sweden, Switzerland). Amazingly, but the nay-sayers managed to completely miss the fact that 1) Ukie laws which contravene the EU Convention on Human Rights (including Protocol 12 on minority rights) and the UN Charter (whose Article 1 and others specifically uphold the right of self-determination) could be overruled 2) that the Ukies were told to recognize the right of self-determination (not just federation, but open-ended self determination) and 3) that the Ukies were told that they will have to remain neutral and non-aligned.
And that, coming form Chubais & Co!
Now, I understand that the Ukies broke every single document they signed so far, and this one will be no exception. But what is crucial here is that the message from “top finance” is not Poroshenko’s hysterical call to arms before the Imperial Senate, but “no crazy laws, self-determination, no NATO“. This is a HUGE victory for Russia who sees a Ukrainian membership in NATO as a major threat. Conversely, this WEF Initiative is a nightmare come true for the Neocons as it finalizes, if it is applied of course, the non-NATO status for the Ukraine.
True, this document speaks of a unitary Ukrainian state (apparently unless and until the right of self-determination trumps that) and it is full with well-meaning generalities. But point #6 is absolutely amazing coming, as it does, from the trans-national plutocrats which signed it. And yes, will Chubais’ friend recommend an non-block status for the Ukraine, the Ukie Rada is abrogating its nonaligned while Timoshenko demands and entry into NATO.
Finally, keep in mind that this is an “initiative” which does not commit the Ukraine or Russia to anything. At most, this is a declaration of desirable principles, a basis for negotiation if you want.
Version 2:
The other big event of the week is signing of the Minsk Memorandum. Here is the full text:
Unlike the vague and, frankly, un-implementable Minsk cease-fire agreement, this Memorandum provides some perfect reasonable standards by which to measure compliance by both parties. Some points are politically correct nonsense (#9) but most of this text can be summarized as following: a “freezing” of the conflict along the line of contact. Is that good or bad?
Depends whom you ask.
Strelkov immediately denounced that Memorandum in the strongest possible terms. According to Strelkov, this is a victory for the “betrayal” camp lead by Surkov who has deceived Putin and is now pushing him into a Milosevic-type of scenario. In contrast, Zakharchenko, obviously, full backs the plan. So let’s look a bit closer to this Memorandum.
For one thing, and that is important, it contains exactly zero political provisions. None. So the first rather obvious point that I would like to make is that this plan is very limited in scope: all it does is provide the basis for a mechanism to achieve a more or less verifiable ceasefire. Period. So if the Minks Ceasefire Agreement was list of vague and unenforceable (I would even argue undefined) general political statements, this document is the extreme opposite: a purely technical tool which really codifies the current situation on the ground.
So what is the political context in which this ceasefire will have to be observed? What is the point of the ceasefire?
Well, again, that depends whom you ask.
According to Poroshenko and other Ukrainian officials it is to give time to the Junta Repression Forces (JRF) to regroup, reorganize and prepare for a counter-attack. Strelkov would agree. Zakharchenko and Lavrov disagree. While they observe and denounce the Ukie preparations for a possible (likely? inevitable?) counter-attack, their official position is that the Agreement and the Memorandum are now binding documents useful in preparation for a final status negotiations. At this point Zakharchanko speaks of a completely independent Ukraine and Lavrov of a neutral Ukraine respectful of all its citizens.
I suggest we take it step by step.
First, long before we got to this point, we used to have heated debates on this blog about whether time was on the Russia, Novorussian or Ukie side. At the time, most commentators, including myself, were of the opinion that time was most definitely on Russia’s side, but the question was if Novorussia could survive long enough. Basically, we wondered if Novorussia could stay alive long enough for Banderastan to collapse, or whether the only way to save Novorussia from a Nazi takeover was an overt Russian military intervention in the Donbass. Some of us even spoke of weeks.
Now, several months later, we see that not only did Novorussia not collapse under a Nazi takeover, but that the Novorussian Armed Forces gave a magnificent thrashing to the JRF and instead of getting encircled in Donetsk and Lugkans, the NAF pushed the JRF all the way out to Mariupol. At the very least, this proves that
1) Those who said that a Russian military intervention was the only way to save Novorussia were wrong: Novorussia survived.
2) Those who said that there was no Russian covert aid or that this aid was insufficient were wrong again: Voentorg is thriving (named after a military store, “voentorg”, which literally means “military trade”, here refers to the Russian covert aid to Novorussia)
Furthermore, at the time everybody agreed that things could only get worse for Banderastan, especially when the Fall and Winter would begin. As far as I know, there is still nobody predicting a miraculous turn-around in the Ukie economy so we can assume that all that Banderastan did was get so much closer to the inevitable economic and social cliff. And, indeed, the cracks are visible all over, AngloZionist aid or not.
I think that basic logic tells us that time is still on Russia’s side and that the Ceasefire Agreement, this time supported by a Memorandum, solves the time problem for Novorussia: with aid from Russia freely flowing in (both over humanitarian aid and covert, “voentorg”, aid) Novorussia can now sit tight and wait. The cold season will not only exacerbate the economic-social tensions in Banderastan, it will also make offensive operations much harder.
What about the opportunity costs?
In economics there the notion of “opportunity costs”. These are the costs you do not incur directly (you don’t have to pay anything), but these are the “costs” resulting from missed opportunities. Income you could have made, but did not.
Is Novorussia incurring such opportunity costs as the result of this peace?
That depends on your hypothesis.
There are those who believe that the NAF could if not make it to Kiev, then at least liberate Mariupol, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov and other cities. I agree that Mariupol was about to fall, but only at great risk of envelopment from the north. As for other cities, I personally don’t believe that is true. Even Slaviansk is quite out of reach, at least for the time being. Some say that a collapse of the JRF would have left the road open to Kiev. While true in one sense (some units might have used to panic to make it that far), this is a typically civilian idea of warfare. “Getting there” can be easy, of course, but it’s *staying* there typically turns into a nightmare. I do not believe that by early September the NAF had the capabilities to breakout much beyond their current areas of deployment and to successfully liberate much more territory.
Furthermore, I do not believe that a purely military solution is achievable, especially not one which has Novorussians “liberating” central or, even less so, western Ukraine. I know that my hatemail will go through the roof, but I will say that I think that freezing the frontline on September 19th is a pretty good deal, especially since that removes the single biggest “distraction” in internal Ukie politics: the so-called “Russian invasion”.
There are also those who say that the Russian military could liberate most, or even, all of the Ukraine. I agree. Militarily, this is a no-brainer. But by doing so Russia would provide the Neocons with their ultimate dream: a Cold War v2 for many decades to come. Pragmatically, this would be a disastrous decision. But the moral aspect is even more important here. As far as I am concerned, and setting aside all my sympathy for the people of Novorussia who have fought for their freedom and, I am now convinced of it, will get it, Russia owes the Ukraine absolutely nothing. Not gas, not loans and most definitely not the lives of Russian soldiers. There is no reason I can think of why a young man from Moscow, Tobolsk or Makhachkala has to sacrifice is life liberating Banderastan from the local Nazis. No, sorry, the Ukrainians have to free themselves. It is the hight of hypocrisy to spend decades whining about the Moskals and then expect them to come a liberate you from your own Nazi freaks.
The people of Donetsk and Lugansk have shown that they, like the folks of Crimea or South Ossetia, are truly deserving of Russian help, even if that means that Russian young men should die, as happened in South Ossetia. And I would note here that South Ossetian man are now fighting as volunteers for Novorussia, so the Ossetians have proven beyond any doubt that they were fighting for.
But the folks in the rest of (historical) Novorussia?
Did you hear about the uprising in Mariupol? Right. Neither did I. What about the partisans around Zaporozhie or Chernigov? Same thing. Well, in reality, this is not quite true and not really fair. First, the Nazis are using terror to subdue the locals in these cities and, second, there have been a few actions here and there. But if Strelkov was speaking the truth when he said that most young men in Donetsk and Luganks were quite happy to sip beer and watch the events on their idiot-boxes, this is even much more true of the rest of the Ukraine. Even senior NAF commander admitted that their strength was in the fact that the NAF were liberators, but that the further they would go west, the more they would be seen not as liberators but as occupiers (and, believe me, the propaganda on Ukie TV is nothing short of unimaginable: according the Ukie officials who speak on Ukie TV on a daily basis, Russia is already occupying the Ukraine with, last time I heard, 19 battalion tactical groups!)
Every one is free to have his/her opinion and I cannot prove that I am right simply because hypotheticals are, by definition, unprovable. But my personal belief is that freezing the line of contact on the 19th is reasonable and that the ceasefire benefits everybody more than the regime in Kiev (which is why I expect it to be broken even more than it already is). Furthermore, I submit that these are the fundamental objectives of the key parties to this civil war:
1) Russia: regime change in Kiev (long term goal: years)
2) Novorussia: de-facto full independence from Kiev (short term goal: months)
3) rest of the Ukraine: liberation and full de-Nazificaton (long term goal: years)
The current situation is favorable for #1 and #2.
What about the warning from Strelkov: that this ceasefire agreement is like the one reached in Croatia which gave the Croats time to prepare a counter-attack with their NATO masters and (illegally) occupy the Serbian Krajinas?
For all my sympathy and admiration for Strelkov, I think that he is plain wrong.
For one thing, the Serbs in the Krajinas had their heavy weapons under UN guard and when the Croats and their NATO masters attacked, UNPROFOR was ordered by the US to get the hell out of the way and UPROFOR meekly complied (trust me, I followed that situation minute-by-minute, literally). Furthermore, Milosevic also betrayed the Croatian Serbs and he did not provide support from Bosnia were the Federal Army had several brigades (who later also dumped the Bosnian Serbs). Crimea is protected by the most powerful nuclear arsenal on the planet and by the most powerful single landforce in Eurasia. Unlike the Serbian Krajinas, Crimea is ideal to defend (as history shows). The notion of the Ukies coming from the land, sea or air to occupy Crimea is ludicrous to the extreme. A JRF which got comprehensively defeated by the NAF cannot take on the Russian military. As for the USN, it can show the flag all over the Black Sea, but every USN officer knows that the Black Sea is one big trap from which you don’t want to fight Russia.
What about Novorussia then? Could the JRF in theory rearm and successfully attack Donetsk and Lugansk? In theory yes, but in practice as long as Putin is in the Kremlin, Russia will never allow the Ukie to take over these two republics. If they tried, the “voentorg” (which, by the way, has not been stopped by the Agreement or Memorandum) will go through the roof and “volunteers” from Russia would come streaming in. And yes, if left no other choice, and facing a “do it or lose it” situation, the Kremlin will order the Russian military to initiate what will, no doubt, be presented as a “temporary and limited peace-enforcement operation to restore the mutually agree upon line of demarcation of September 19th, 2014” or some equally inane formula which, in practical terms, will simply mean “you got 48 hours to smash the Ukie forces“. It will probably take less than 24. Then the Russians will go right back across the border and ask that the OSCE attest to that withdrawal. The West will choke with rage, but it shall be too late. Just like Russia basically disarmed Saakashvili in 3 days of combat, Russia can, and will, disarm Poroshenko, Iarosh, Timoshenko or any other Ukie freak who will try to capture Donetsk or Lugansk.
So is there a conspiracy? A behind-the-scenes secret deal?
Probably not. But I bet you that there is a mutual understanding. The US tells Russia “don’t you dare take Kiev” and Russia replies “don’t you dare take the Donetsk and Luganks Republics”. Neither side commits to anything, but it “just so happens” that neither dare is called. Having said that, both sides also see that short of these red lines the rest is fair game. Hence, the US props up Kiev and Russia props up Novorussia. Sure, the Neocons in the USA are absolutely incensed, and the “hurray-patriots” (there is such a Russian term) in Russia are also furious. The armchair generals on both sides (Liashko, Dugin) offer many “simple” plans on how they would win it all if they were in the White House or the Kremlin. In the meantime, the military commanders in the Pentagon and in the Russian General Staff quietly try to make sure that this war stays local and does not force the “Big Guys” into a real world war.
The main risk is that there is a faction inside the US deep state which correctly identifies the political threat posed by Russia’s overt and unapologetic defiance of US policies as an existential threat for the AngloZionist Empire. These guys, Neocons or old Anglo Imperialists, want to play a game of chicken with Russia and they are convincing themselves that Russia must, and will, blink at the last second and back down. The Russian response is very complex one: to give the appearance of backing down without really giving up anything. Like when the Russians had to “cave in” to US threats and disarm Syria form its chemical arsenals. At the time, the Putin is selling out Syria” choir immediately denounced this document as a a betrayal and as a proof that Putin and Obama are, in reality, working hand in hand. Some even continue to clamor today that “if Assad had chemical weapons” the US would never dare to attack him (forgetting that Saddam also had chemical weapons and that this did not help him at all). Now, in hindsight, we know that these nay-sayers (I am being nice and polite here) were wrong, 100% wrong, but at the time their laments and outraged denunciations sounded credible.
To be truly honest, I can understand their feelings. I even wrote on this blog that my biggest fear is that Putin would turn out to be yet another Milosevic. In fact, I had predicted that the Russians would intervene and I was quite surprised and, frankly, appalled when they did not. That was when Donetsk and Lugansk were almost surrounded and their fall looked likely. My brain told met that this would not happen, but I had a knot in my stomach and I could barely think of anything at all besides the tragic events in Novorussia. Yet, this time again, just as with Syria, Putin did “deliver”: Russia’s covert aid turned the tide and what looked like an imminent collapse of all of Novorussia (especially after the retreat of Strelkov from Slaviansk!) turned into a unbelievable defeat for the Ukie forces. Again, those who seriously believe that this amazing turn of events happened by itself rather then as the direct result of a strategic decision taken in Moscow just don’t understand warfare, sorry. Russia’s covert aid (weapons, men, intelligence, advisors) made this NAF counter-offensive possible and if Putin wanted to “sell out” Novorussia all he had to do is nothing at all. That would have done the trick just fine. Instead Russia embarked on a remarkable and highly effective to achieve two apparently mutually exclusive results: to deny the AngloZionists the war they so badly wanted and to deny the Ukies the victory they so badly wanted.
No wonder they so passionately hate Putin and Russia :-)
So where do we go from here?
As usual, I will simply admit that I don’t know (which is not bad, considering that many folks seem not to even know where we currently are). There are too many variables. Those who tried the MH17 false flag might come up with something just as disgusting and as crazy. So far, on the US side, it look like the Pentagon is successful in preventing the Neocons from seriously committing the US behind Poroshenko. Speaking of Poroshenko, he is much safer in the US than at home. For him, things are about to get much tougher and much uglier. Right now, literally anything can happen in Banderastan, I cannot call that one at all.
Assuming the Ukies don’t launch a Fall or Winter offensive (how crazy would that be?! but then they are pretty crazy…), Novorussia will be fine, courtesy of a strong NAF and plenty of Russian aid. Hopefully, the crazy infighting amongst the Novorussian elites will eventually stop. In Russia proper, Strelkov can be the perfect spokesman to 1) hold Putin’s feet to the fire and 2) help Putin further gradually suppress the Atlantic Integrationists. Crimea’s future looks as bright as can be.
Which leaves Russia under sanctions. Short term – the sanctions are definitely going to hurt Russia. Mid-term, Russia will do just fine as long as these sanctions are used as an opportunity to finally embark on some much needed reforms. There is no risk of a “nationalist Maidan against Putin” (there never was), but the fight against the oligarchs will continue (not only were there rumors, later denied, that Evtushekov had been free, but so far the investigation of the corruption scandal under Serdiukov and his mistress Evgenia Vassilievna has gone nowhere). There are still plenty of pro-Western Atlantic Sovereignists in Moscow and even inside the Kremlin and it will take a lot of time and effort to suppress their constantly subversive and, frankly, sabotaging efforts.
That’s it for today folks, I hope that this was useful. Sorry for the long post. All I can say in my defense is that I barely scratched the surface of it all (I good, solid Ukrainian SITREP could easily be 30-50 pages long, though in real life politicians want their reduced to 3-4 paragraphs on one sheet of paper; no wonder they then take stupid decisions!).
Kind regards to all and have a wonderful week-end!
The Saker
PS: a friend just emailed me to let me know that Russia, China plan sign new 30 year gas deal via 2nd route! So much for the “isolation” of Russia :-)
Strelkov and Cassad are more accurate in evaluation of situation.
When Saker says its a deal favorable to Russia – it is, and its favorable to Paroshenko too, what Saker side-steps, thats its NOT favorable to Novorossia. And no, Banderastan wont collapse sooner than Novorossia (one puppet change to another doesnt matter the slightest), hence there is no time factor benefit. Yes, Ukies are balancing near default, so what? Novorossia is nearly completely dead from economic point of view and infrastructure is pretty much destroyed, no advantage here in any way.
Saker is hanging to “mission impossible”, which will never happen – pro-Russian regime change in Kiev. Moscow isnt pushing for it either, as it simply wont happen. What Russia is pushing for – neutral Ukraine with Novorossia as autonomous part of it. They did so since the very beginning, and continuing this policy ever since. And yes, its at the EXPENSE of Novorossians, which interests as expected are secondary to Russia.
“1) Russia: regime change in Kiev (long term goal: years)”
Impossible, West wont allow it and they have full Ukies support, as well as 24/7 media brainwashing and nazionalistic education. I dare Saker and anyone else to show how Russia can get a pro-Russia regime change in Kiev, as its nothing more than a fantasy.
“2) Novorussia: de-facto full independence from Kiev (short term goal: months)”
Thats not what Russia wants, and thats not what ceasefire stipulates. Saker’s interpretation is in-line with Russia’s policy, and completely against Novorossians point of view (except of installed Russia’s puppets).
“3) rest of the Ukraine: liberation and full de-Nazificaton (long term goal: years)”
Read 1st, its mission impossible. I dare anyone to outline HOW it can be done.
Sadly agree.
If this nut-train of ukraine is allowed to take its “natural” course (24/7 brainwashing-tv), then all those points is very inpossible.
Only thing Russia will get is a even more Anti-Russian ukrainia.
And worst, even alot of ethnic russians in ukraine will start to Hate Russia (because of brainwash, and because of Russia abandoning them).
Such “inside” hatred from within an ethnisity, can much easier spread to “mainstream” russians in russia in a very longterm scenario (if guided correctly by falseflag-operaters in maidan-attempts on russian soil).
Almost nothing good comes from giving ukraine time.
If dealt with sooner, then easier to reverse. And maybe russia do not have to loose all the ukranian market (“only 15-30billion a year? But still alot).
Two totally contradictory statements
1. Russia’s first and main objective is “regime change in Kiev”. This is supposed to be vital for Russia. Okay.
2. Russia owes nothing to Ukraine and “the Ukrainians have to free themselves”.
How exactly is this going to happen?
By hoping for an economic collapse? There already is an economic collapse. Sir, an economic collapse does not necessarily mean a military/security/thug collapse. It never does, but in this case, even less. The more misery there is, the more the thugs will impose themselves.
Assuming that this vital “regime change” (vital for Russia) is going to happen because Ukrainians will simply “free themselves” is living in total fantasy land.
They won’t free t hemselves. The repressive apparatus is becoming more and more efficient. You can see that every day. Lustration has become a thing of beauty. Try being a regular Ukrainian citizen in Kiev and try talking to people around you about the need for Ukrainians to “free themselves,” see where that gets you.
Sorry. I cannot take this seriously.
Strelkov is not an “armchair general” however as a political analyst analyst he leaves a lot to be desired.
The fact that Lutheunia, Poland and Ukraine make there own defence is a sign of fear of Russian invasion but also it is a sign of possible official smuggling of lethal weapons for Ukraine. Where Poland could get weapons and Ukraine could use it
Ukraine, hungary, romania and more countries are allready supplying ukraine with armored vehicles.
Most x-sovjet countries there are selling their old equipments to ukraine (after kinda orders of nato. To sell old, and buy new… From usa).
In addition Italy has sold around 70 humvee-like armored vehicles.
And Australia, usa (or was it canada?) has allready been caught supplying military equipment to ukraine in Kharkov.
Several Javelin of usa origin was captured by recon “sabotage” groups in Kharkov.
And this is just the start, before alot more will come to ukraine.
In addition…
When the west so “nicely” say they will only send “no-lethal” aid….
That is just BS.
Because sending 500million in non-lethal aid, frees up other budget posts… So the ukr coup gov can use 500 million on buying lethal aids!.
Example:
Norway announced it would send some millions to ukraine “educational/science inovationfund”
Just 1-2 weeks afterwards, Poroschenko announced loudly, that the science-invention fund would be Drasticly reduced! His reasoning: Because in wartime they do not need inovations.
Translation: the more foreign countries gives in “non-lethal” aid, the more the coup gov can redirect of budget into lethal purchases.
Hi Saker
Yes I strongly agree with nearly all of your assessment.
I can point to two critical factors.
1) The Ukrainian army were defeated and the military option is no longer a serious option for Poroshenko
2) Putin is not yet ready to concede that the whole of Junta controlled Ukraine is “hopeless” or “lost”.
If I diverge on one point it is that I see Poroshenko as a Businessman and Pragmatist more than an ideologue. Twice he has appeared before NATO and the US and sung their song in their favourite tune, just as he was also negotiating in Minsk. On both occasions the US gave him nothing to negotiate with, so he signed the deals in Minsk.
Also; to his credit, he stopped the war as soon as the collapse started rather than let it drag on pointlessly for more days or weeks. I do not wish war on anyone and I am pleased to see fighting stop and civilians able to prepare for Winter etc.
The key question is can Putin do Buisiness with Poroshenko? based on the docs that have appeared this week, It seems that he believes he can.
Offcourse he cant.
Usa did not start this coup (over 10 years in-the-making), just so Poroschenko and Putin can hold hands;)
As a civilian you may WISH for it to have an Easy ending.
But such Events (false flag coup in february) only ends when 1 side wins, or the side that started the false flag sees a better oppurtunity/outcome.
Usa has nothing to loose from letting this war escelate.
Allthough usa has won alot by this war so far, they can easily win alot more also.
It is not american lives at risk in ujraine;)
Here’s a brief economic analysis of Ukraine’s economy. It looks awful.
http://soberlook.com/2014/09/ukraine-on-brink.html
A brief economic analysis of Ukraine’s economy. All Russia needs to do is wait and watch.
http://soberlook.com/2014/09/ukraine-on-brink.html
The only possible way from my point of view to stop the war is to get EU and Russia to agree on Donbas , Russia has to let Ukraine go with whatever regime it has, EU to take Ukraine AS IS with many promises ahead and get USA out if the game completely. Russia has to cool off with military exercises but take Donbas Under its win officially without annexing
EU Ukraine and Russia come back to compromise and possible function.
Eu does not controll usa.
Usa controlls eu (more or less).
And zionist oligarchs controll usa. (And alot of eu).
Sadly one starts to understand the reason to the Sher hatred for jews before the WW2.
Why many countries in their constituions even banned jews from entering.
The pure devestating damage to the world the 0-1% of the jews does to the world is incredible.
Getting caucasions to completly hate eachother, while they controll strategic powerposts (media conglomerates, political office-lobbyists/bearucrats, etc etc).
Jews are smarter then caucasions (according to all official statistics. Around 10 IQ-points). Obviously 10 important points.
Saker:
5) Far from being any kind of patriots or nationalists, the Ukie “nationalists” are subservient puppets of the West, willing to service AngloZionist interests with less shame then a old prostitute services her clients. For all the “Glory to the Ukraine, to the Heroes Glory!” slogans, the Ukies are the cheapest prostitutes on the planet with no self-respect whatsoever.
Lest we forget, Ukraine is one of the last countries on earth that openly sells its women into sexual slavery.
Such a mentality can only be complemented in thepolitical sphere by the sell-out of the national interest.
Saker, your reports are excellent.
What is this rumour about 10bio$
annually from 2015-2017 to NGOs in Russia? Is this for real?
How could Putin tolerate that?!
Thank you for your great work.
“though in real life politicians want their reduced to 3-4 paragraphs on one sheet of paper; no wonder they then take stupid decisions!).”
Depends which politicians.
Your characterisation does apply to most of the opponents which gives rise to myriad opportunities.
if we ignore Anatole Kaletsky’s statement “the rebels shot down MH17,” (consider where it is published Anatole had to repeat the party line BUT– he mirrors Mr. Saker’s brilliant analysis:
Why this Ukraine ceasefire will stick
among the key nuggs:
“”[The] ceasefire no longer relies on good faith or benevolence but on a convergence of interests: Putin has achieved all his key objectives, and Poroshenko recognizes that trying to reverse militarily the Russian gains would be national suicide.
Admittedly, there is still a “party of war” in Kiev, seemingly led by Prime Minister Arsenyi Yatsenyuk, who has called on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to back his country in an all-out war with Russia. But this week’s vote in the Ukrainian Parliament on temporary autonomy for the rebel regions suggests that most of the country’s politicians have abandoned hope of winning a war with Russia. They also understood that Western military assistance is not coming.
This may sound like a grimly defeatist analysis. Yet a modest victory for Russia was actually the least bad outcome to be expected — given that there was never any chance of economic sanctions stopping Putin, for reasons explained here in March. There are several good reasons to welcome the incipient Ukraine deal:[.]””
there’s more
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Move along now – “Ukraine is where the U.S. dollar and NATO went to die” – February 2014 marks a profound event, the Maidan, which hastened the demise of the USD and the new trade roads/pipelines to the East:
• 1.This is why Russia & China are Now “The Enemy
• 2. And if it wasn’t clear by now, Russia pivot away from the west and toward China is pretty much complete.
Russia FinMin Calls For Shift Away From US Treasurys Into BRIC Bonds, Settlement In Non-Dollar Currencies
~ ~ ~ ~ ~
When SANCTIONS do Not Apply
Did we say sanctions?
Recall, less than 2 weeks ago, Obama’s decree to stop US energy companies from drilling for oil in Russia’s Artic?
And the Former CEO of ExxonMobil said “I am not a U.S. Company, and I do not make decisions based on what’s good for the U.S.”
Oh, that sanction?
ExxonMobil receives US government agreement to continue Arctic work with Rosneft — media
NEW YORK, September 19 /ITAR-TASS/.
American ExxonMobil has confirmed receiving the U.S. government’s permission to continue Arctic drilling works together its partner Rosneft which the company was supposed to stop because of U.S. and European sanctions imposed to punish Russia for escalating tensions in Ukraine, the Bloomberg news agency reported with reference to the company’s statement.[.]
= = = = =
Bwaaaaaah
Always, always follow the money.
Have a pleasant Sunday
AM
Very good post, Saker.
I would like to position the Ukraine conflict a bit differently. Putin needs a new deal gas with Europe re.. SOUTH. He needs to confirm this project and cement it. I don’t think he will agree to anything about Ukraine until Europe agrees with this project.
Also, this project will be key to what will follow in the middle east during the next few months.
Greg Schofield:
The fracking bubble is huge, and has been fake from day one (wildly overestimated productivity on even the best sites and a lot of money put into very peripheral sites — it has been a speculators dream).
All of the anti-fracking people saying nonsense like this have no idea what they are talking about. I assure you as someone who is a landowner, investor, and engineering designer involved with the industry that there is no “bubble” such as you are speaking of, in danger of imminent financial collapse (there are a few weak firms, especially Chesapeake, that took on too much debt and paid too much for land rights, but that is a seperate issue).
The amount of oil pouring out of the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Permian Basin, etc. is amazing, and dry gas is only being drilled where it is economical. In the Marcellus, the focus is on wet gas in the west and the volumes being produced there are pretty incredible too.
If you have been paying attention since the mid-2000’s, what is noteworthy is that every pronouncement of the most over-optimisitic fracking proponents and companies has UNDERestimated what the actual production occurring would be, and the size of the available reserves the technology would unlock..
There is so much production occurring now that the current industry focus is now on EXPORT facilities, because the US-Canada market is saturated until new petro-chemical plants can be built.
Porky has big problems at home. The R. Sektor wants him out. He’s got to talk like this. It is total counterproductive because Europe can’t fight a war, period. It doesn’t have the troops, equipment, gas, oil, or the will of the people, let alone the political willpower. Europe has gone too far and it is not sure how it is going to get back. It has discovered that UE is a pile of s*it but it can’t easily sweep it under the rug and it is scared it will do something stupid. Read Medvedev’s stuff from the interviews and the Sochi sessions. He has, very gently, put Europe on notice. Trade is permanently borked. Gas and oil are next. Porky can rant all he likes – no one but the ussa congress is in attendance. He is a one-trick pony and he’s played out his hand. The neo-cons did not expect this blowback from RU. They are now changing their focus to Syraq, out of necessity. But i would wager the time is also running out in this sphere. RU is off of its back foot. Expect some interference in the plans of the neo-cons in Syraq. The time window is also closing fast on the ussa in this theatre.
I looked at the list of players at this swiss meeting. It would have been nice to see some more HorsePwr from the rest of the world. DE with BASF and Siemens is a good start. These 2 firms have been at the forefront of trying to get mutti merkel to come to her senses. Reading A. Chubais bio is interesting, with his Bilderberg attendance, his seat on the CFR, and his participation in Yeltsin’s govt. I wonder how much weight he carries these days,in RU.
‘Mutual understanding’= status quo = stand off. It would not be to RU’s advantage to make such a deal. Why lock yourself into something? And I don’t think the Pentagon is running this ‘war’ anyway. This is ussa shadow government running this war. RU has nothing to gain from such an understanding, as I see it. It has shown it can keep eastern UE and why the hell does it need Kiew? Someone has yet to convince me that RU wants UE, for what? It wants a stable border. If it gets UE then it buys itself a whole bunch of trouble eg nazis, neo-cons, failed economy, obsolete industry, hostile population. The unstable border then moves to Moldova et al. It’s crazy. It’s Afghanistan all over again. Is RU interested in taking on a basketcase collection of separate states and nursing them to health? What for? There is a whole world out there and the UE is not it. It is a failed state with oligarchic fiefdoms competing with each other. It is medieval. Why would RU be interested in taking over from the ussa and the EU this failed state? Why?
A lot of the thinking is that Putin will sell out Novorussia. UE has sold itself out to the highest bidder. UE has sold out the eastern regions. Novorussia is a counter reaction. NR has been supported by RU covertly and overtly throughout this entire affair for reasons that are still valid. If RU changed course now, it would cause immense damage to RU foreign policy throughout the world. At a time when being a reliable partner is becoming a rarity RU is looking more and more trustworthy. Look at the 2 faced approach of the ussa and many of the western european countries. It does not work to talk about a ‘silk road’ and simultaneously screw your ‘friends and allies’. This is much, much bigger than UE. And what is panicing the neo-cons and their handlers is that they have discovered it too late and no one is playing the game to their rules. Look where the physical gold is going, look where trade is growing, look where new financial structures are being implemented. UE is a pimple on a gnat’s a** compared to where the world is going. No time for despair.
“”View from Russia: Could Putin be in Obama’s ‘broad coalition’ against ISIS?”
why would RU join a coalition with obummer that no one but the french have done?
why would RU go against Syria?
why would RU go against Iran?
why would RU go against Iraq?
what coalition? there isn’t one?
CNN foreign policy lol
A very nice article. I just want to make a few corrections:
– Why did Poroshenko ask for weapons? I don’t see here any Obama conspiracy. The Syrian rebels keep asking for weapons too. It seems to me that the basic theory is that if you ask for the moon you will get at least something. In addition asking for the moon has the benefit that when your wishes aren’t granted you know who to blame.
– It is not only Strelkov who has fielded the Croatian Krajna theory. On the Ukrainian side Lutsenko has done the same. Note also that the Ukrainian autonomy law is only for three years – exactly the time Croatia took before it attacked. Also its borders should be the present armistice lines.
– Note that three years is a very long time. One may hope that the Ukrainian economy breaks down before that time. But it is certain that such a period will be very hard for the DNR-LNR area. Nobody will invest in that area and the continuing uncertainty will lead to people leaving the area. If necessary Kiev can send in a few shells now and then.
– Time is also on the Ukrainian side for another reason: they can pick their time when the circumstances seem favorable. And if they don’t seem favorable they can just wait.
– for the US Navy the Black Sea is no option as the Treaty of Montreux restricts the presence of foreign navy vessels. There is now talk about strengthening the Romanian navy to get around this obstacle.
At the end of WWII States were formed by lumping cultures that had a history of clashing together. They were more manageable that way by the victors. They were designed to be semi failed states that were in a state of perpetual tension and thus were rendered politically stagnant. All statesman understand this if they took political science 101. The US and EU obviously understand this, having created most of them as they set the terms of the new world that emerged at the end of hostilities (WWII).
Likewise, they also understand that a spark will send such states into turmoil. Historically, they used sparks when a state was showing signs of progress in the wrong direction. This is what state sponsored racism and religious fanaticism is all about. However, if sparks go to far and bloodshed occurs on the scale that it has in the Donbas, Gaza, Libya, Iraq, etc …this will Balkanize the “stagnate state” permanently and irrevocably. There are still divisions in the US from the civil war. Therefore, and contrary to whatever spin, Ukraine no longer exists as it was prior to the ATO –Kaput –Istoriya!
To spill blood on the scale of the ATO with its particular brand of brutality and at the same time insist on the territorial integrity of the state is a guaranteed recipe for chaos! Obviously, the US knew that from the start and had to be their intention all along. Therefore, no matter what anyone says or how the situation is spun, only a military occupation of the Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts will stop the process of Balkanization. That is just a fact.
There are many “facts” that make no sense. For example, the junta’s army being thoroughly waxed by a civilian formed militia. I always suspected that it was the US that wanted to keep the war going by deliberate mismanagement. Moreover, In the beginning of the fight, when NAF was in dire straights, I also suspected that the US were the ones leaving “special presents” for the NAF to find. Why? To keep the fight going. I think that they did/ do protest a bit too much, “it was/is Russia”. They want chaos, not a victory for either side –perpetual war.
This is not about Ukraine, this is about Russia. Why provoke Russia? Putin stated openly that Russia will not accept a unipolar world. But what really got the empire’s attention was when Russia stopped the US plans against Syria, twice. They were fulminating, remember?
What will the US do now? They will keep the Donbas in a state of low intensity war that can be regulated as required. This will keep both Europe and Russia in line and act as an example to the rest of the world what happens when you cross the empire. If we can do this to Russia, what do you think will happen to you! The militarily wing of the IMF empire (US) will go back to Syria to finish the job, and just to let Russia, Europe and the world know who is really in charge, the prince of peace, Obama, shouted from the top of Mount WMSM, “I will bomb Syria with or without Syria’s permisso!” –flouting international law!
Therefore, the real question is what will Russia do to mitigate the empire’s perennial plans for Assad’s ouster? Did the empire sufficiently overload Russia to the point that it is now incapable of defending its ally Syria and protect the Russian population of Donbas? The point I am making is, in order to understand any regional theater like Ukraine, Syria or Isis, you must include the larger context.
Just pointing out that I believe you have crossed your labels – towards the end of the article you wrote “pro-Western Atlantic Sovereignists” rather than “Atlantic Integrationists”.
Does anybody know, if the buffer zone will now prevent (assuming the Ukrainian army honours the agreement) GRAD/artillery attacks on Horlivka?Gorlovka? And/or a map of the buffer zone? Thanks.
Re: “Sorry for the long post. All I can say in my defense is that I barely scratched the surface of it all (I good, solid Ukrainian SITREP could easily be 30-50 pages –
great sitrep, and gripping too – thought-provoking for the novice and advanced reader alike?
No mean feat at all, what does that take, the strategist’s mind with the human heart?
what was it Socrates said? “i know everything and therefore i know nothing”
and ee cummings?
..here is the deepest secret nobody knows. Here is the root of the root and the bud of the bud And the sky of the sky of a tree called life; Which grows higher than soul can hope or mind can hide. And this is the wonder that’s keeping the stars apart. i carry your heart. i carry it in my heart.
Saker,
You wrote, “those who seriously believe that this amazing turn of events happened by itself rather then as the direct result of a strategic decision taken in Moscow just don’t understand warfare, sorry. Russia’s covert aid (weapons, men, intelligence, advisors) made this NAF counter-offensive possible”
Would you please give a more detailed description of what this aid was. (specifically the men part) Were/are Russian troops involved?
Mark
Red alert:
http://breizatao.com/2014/09/21/le-mafieux-juif-mikhail-khodorkovski-veut-devenir-le-prochain-president-russe/#comment-15017
http://rt.com/news/189428-germany-plane-sue-ukraine/
“In Russia proper, Strelkov can be the perfect spokesman to 1) hold Putin’s feet to the fire and 2) help Putin further gradually suppress the Atlantic Sovereignists” – ***Integrationists
And again here:
“There are still plenty of pro-Western Atlantic Sovereignists in Moscow and even inside the Kremlin and it will take a lot of time and effort to suppress their constantly subversive and, frankly, sabotaging efforts.”
Such an easy to make yet fundamental confusion can create havoc among your uninitiated readers, Saker.
Fantastic article. Nowhere on the internet one can find such an analysis. It is logically constructed by facts and comes categorically to conclusions. Thanks Saker. I like your methodical and intelligent approach of analyzing the events and supporting them by references and facts.
Where do we go from here, generally? We can only surmise that from actions, not words/propaganda, unfortunately. The signs are all ominous. From Syria to Ukraine, and back again. Unsurprisingly, certain major financial and economics blogs have featured warnings that we are back to the same insane recklessness that ushered in the 2008 collapse. Lately, the mass commentariat seem to find consensus in the view that things are now full tilt; Uber wealthy are apparently getting very nervous too, judging by their keen interest in (physical) precious metals. Of course, the sheeple are still awaiting the memo from the mainstream media outlets, as they frantically go about their daily lot as debt slaves, punctuated by various forms of circus relief. But wherever we’re headed seems destined to be far, far bleaker than where we left.
@Bosnian Croat:
Your understanding of the Yugoslavia “breakup” is from the School of the Americas! I.e., full of doodoo!
Try these two excellent analyses of the “US War on Yugoslavia” before posting another dribble:
bit.ly/1pQWjX2 (by Michael Parenti)
bit.ly/1qUZgb4 (The Weight of Chains)
The sanctions by the US/EU against Russia and its oil projects involving EXXON, BP, SHELL and TOTAL. Every company, one after another, has declared that they are continuing, not cancelling.
Russia has achieved a lot in a few months. Their new alliance with CHINA is already bringing some results. I am sure that those companies will be replaced easily if the cancelled their projects in RUSSIA.
I believe Ukraine will have to stay neutral, military wise, if they want to have some prosperity going forward. They need the gas from RUSSIA for the next 3-5 years, at least.
Putin will not annex Dunbass because it does’t fit in this big picture. He will support them as much as he can, however. Ukraine has to get rid of the pro-nazis before there will be any significant negotiations with Putin, imho.
Bigben
“Those who tried the MH17 false flag might come up with something just as disgusting and as crazy.”
This assumes the MH17 talking point has been worn out in the media. If you look at the military situation in east ukraine, you see the one line of advance remaining from the August offensive is towards the boeing crash site
http://en.ria.ru/world/20140921/193147916/Ukrainian-Authorities-Say-Independence-Supporters-Shell.html
To: Wim Roffel
“- Note that three years is a very long time. One may hope that the Ukrainian economy breaks down before that time.”
look at the numbers eg http://www.zerohedge.com UE is cratering while we post.
“But it is certain that such a period will be very hard for the DNR-LNR area. Nobody will invest in that area and the continuing uncertainty will lead to people leaving the area.”
Think so? NR and RU will find a way to revitalize the area. NR will have enough ‘trade’ and business with RU. It will become a breakaway showpiece. What better way to pull the other regions away from Kiew?
“If necessary Kiev can send in a few shells now and then.”
I’m sure they will returned in kind. Kiew is a failure. It may go up in burnt tire smoke tomorrow.
“- Time is also on the Ukrainian side for another reason: they can pick their time when the circumstances seem favorable. And if they don’t seem favorable they can just wait.”
And NR just sits and waits. I think not. Kiew doesn’t have the ability to ‘win’ anything. They had just better hope they don’t lose more. They’ve proved that. They have already spent 5billion on this war. Where is the next tranch of money coming from?
…and oh yes, winter is coming.
Many thanks to The Saker for the lucid and detailed clarification of the current situation and its likely short-term possible developments.
It seems that, due to Russia’s handling of the situation, the imminent threat of global nuclear war has passed (though perhaps only postponed). What a relief! I admit I was worried for awhile.
I suspect our only concern now is with the possibility of some further act of insanity by the psychopaths running the AZE (or by various deranged supporters of the Kiev Junta).
As regards the Angela, I think her complete subservience to the US/Israel is best explained by blackmail, specifically, the threat of release of, shall we say, ‘compromising’, material from her East German past. Just a guess. And the same might be said of many other Western leaders (and politicians), though some, such as Tony Abbot, are just straight-out lunatics with nothing between their ears.
One of the ZPC’s 5th elements in Russia channels Catharine MacKinnon ;
«Ее так колбасило» (“Her sausage”)
http://vz.ru/politics/2014/9/19/706574.html (trans) http://translate.yandex.net/tr-url/ru-en.ru/vz.ru/politics/2014/9/19/706574.html
“…The constructive atmosphere of the conversation was broken hysterical shouting: “you Fool!”, “The scoundrel!”, “Whore!”. The voice belonged to Yevgenia Albats…”
And naturally, besides her work at the New Times mag and Echo of Moscow for the ZPC, Albats has a leadership role in the Russian Jewish Congress (an Israeli front and NGO).
вот так
les,
The Anglo-Americans can certainly escalate or destroy a lot way before three years rolls around. Besides, it would take three years if the fifth column didn’t have so much power. So we get to the question of whether Putin and his allies can push for things like Constitutional changes or getting rid of Medvedev. So far, what we mostly see are the same old faces that have been comfortable with Russia as a largely oligarchical society making deals with the Ukraine as a totally oligarchically-dominated society. Even when listening to Putin talk, he makes it sound like Russia did nothing wrong, just asking Kuchma for advice and working with the oligarchs.
‘Liable for damage’: Families of Germans killed in MH17 crash to sue Ukraine
http://rt.com/news/189428-germany-plane-sue-ukraine/
Neutral lawsuit as to who shot it down, but blames Ukraine for letting the airliner fly over a war zone.
Russia pledges support to ISIS opponents, no plans to join US-led coalition
http://rt.com/politics/189036-russia-isis-fight-ministry/
“Russia will not “buy tickets” to the international coalition that is being created by the US to fight the Islamic State, but will continue its aid to Iraq, Syria and other nations that are fighting terrorists on the spot.
“The anti-ISIL coalition is not a club party – we do not expect any invitations and we are not going to buy entry tickets,” said Ilya Rogachev, the head of the Foreign Ministry’s Department for New Challenges and Threats.At the same time Russia will continue to support all states that fight against the Islamic State, the official told the Interfax news agency on Friday.
Rogachev used the older name ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and Levant) for the group that was also known as ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) and that is now acting simply under the name Islamic State (IS)…”
вот так
The пиздобол march:
МВД: Акции оппозиции в российских городах оказались крайне малочисленными (MIA: the opposition Rally in the Russian cities were very small)
http://www.vz.ru/news/2014/9/21/706733.html (trans) http://translate.yandex.net/tr-url/ru-en.ru/www.vz.ru/news/2014/9/21/706733.html
“…So, in Petrozavodsk and Saratov gathered 20 people, Perm – 50, Yekaterinburg up to 100, in Novosibirsk for about 10 people, in Syktyvkar, about 15 participants, and in Barnaul, there was only a single picket…
The total number of members of the “peace March” in Moscow is closer to 5 thousand people. According to the report, among those who are members of the opposition and supporters of the DND and LNR, reports RIA “Novosti”. [IE: the total includes counter marchers]
Blogger Rustem Adagamov confirms the data of the Ministry of interior. “People still five thousand people”, – he wrote in Twitter…”
Meanwhile the zio-media is raving about 1000’s of marchers and Russian repression and war making to make up for their master’s failed event.
вот так
Bandolero, I am not The Saker, but just a bloke who reads. ;)
I reckon that this is a process. Steps from one place to another place. The thing is that both sides have a different destination in mind but both, on the whole, share the same departure point.
So, each step will be partly followed and partly ignored but over time the steps will tend to take a direction and that direction will be decided by the relative strengths of the parties at the time.
Now, there’s a point that I have not seen discussed but I am sure the main actors understand this thing, but neither side will make too big a fuss of it, each for their own reasons: intervention.
We have known for months that the junta is getting all sorts of support, much covertly from other European countries and the US. I’d say that this is probably fair enough given the the junta is considered by these groups and Russia to be the legitimate government in Ukraine. However all the aid provided has not seemed to aid the junta, much of the materiel seems to have ended up with the rebels and the Ukrainian forces have been beaten back and to a stalemate.
On the other hand the Russians were constantly being accused of providing support and even of ‘invading’Ukraine. However while it is clear that covert support has existed there’s actually nobody able, or willing, to show the world the evidence of any such support.
The fact of Russian support is becoming an accepted aspect of the civil war. Now, the Russians are popping humanitarian aid convoys over the border without so much as a by your leave from Ukraine who merely bluster and moan and send a humanitarian convoy of 19 trucks to Lugansk where a few days before 200 from Russia had arrived.
Bottom line is this, the rebels and Russians are slowly but surely showing the the border with Ukraine starts at the western edge of rebel held Donbass. A few more months of this and it will be accepted that Russian ‘stuff’ pops over the border whenever it is needed or desired.
This de facto acceptance serves two purposes, firstly it cements the de facto independence, within Ukraine, of the rebel territory, secondly it legitimises Russian support of the rebels. Except in extremis I doubt that we will see active duty Russian troops but there will be less inclination to hide whatever support is provided.
I still reckon that the regime change that will come will be in the form of Zacharchenko or similar as president or prime minister of a unified Ukraine. That can only come by following the direction that the Minsk Protocols and Lavrov have outlined
So what is really the intrest of AngloZionist here? I see no rational interest in attacking Russia?
Like others I have constantly underestimated the Russian Govt’s strategic skills. They have brilliantly combined military, economic and political factors.
From a ‘big picture’ point of view this is the ideal time to stop fighting for a whole raft of reasons.
Not the least of which is that wars (especially civil wars) can take on a life of their own and after a point become very difficult to stop, until total defeat of one side or the other or exhaustion of both sides. Plus the resulting bitterness and hate makes a sensible settlement very hard to achieve.
Politically, see below for details, the ordinary Ukrainian wants it all to stop and support for the Kiev extremists has collapsed. If the fighting goes on longer then there is a risk of a hardening in peoples’ positions and a weakening of the internal political pressure for an enduring settlement.
Another is that the longer it goes on the more damaged the Novorossiyan infrastructure will become. In this case a pyrrhic victory comes to mind. Now Novorossiya is militarily safe. This means reconstruction can begin.
The internal political pressure in Kiev will become tense, to say the least, especially if this report on the Ukrainian polls is correct. http://johnhelmer.net/?p=11385
This means in an election the extreme ‘nut job’ parties are basically going to be wiped out. The ordinary Ukrainian has had enough of this nonsense and just wants it to stop.
“Ukrainian politicians, including the current Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk and former prime minister Yulia Timoshenko, are losing support, the voters say, because they favour war in the Donbass, sanctions against Russia, and military intervention of NATO on Ukrainian territory. Yatseniuk and Timoshenko are leading blocs they are calling Patriots of Ukraine and Fatherland in the campaign for parliamentary seats to be decided on October 26. On current polling trends, their voters across the country will number less than 5%, the threshold for winning party seats in the new Verkhovna Rada.”
“Also tested in last week’s polling are figures from western Ukraine…. The new poll results show that voter support for them is evaporating since the ceasefire – in the case of Tyagnibok and Yarosh (Svoboda, Pravy Sektor) dwindling to single-digit numbers not larger than the pollster’s measure of statistical error. More than three-quarters of Ukrainian voters, including those who condemn the separatist movement in the Donbass, want a negotiated peace and end to war.”
saker you said “First, long before we got to this point, we used to have heated debates on this blog about whether time was on the Russia, Novorussian or Ukie side. At the time, most commentators, including myself, were of the opinion that time was most definitely on Russia’s side, but the question was if Novorussia could survive long enough.”
no sir, time is certainly not on your side.
putin is making msitakes after mistakes in last 4 months. now an elected president is being challenged by a crowd maker criminal khodoroskey and still russia does nothing. why does russia not make similar crowd protests on street of scotland agasint english cheating of vote?
@Anonymous:no sir, time is certainly not on your side.
putin is making msitakes after mistakes in last 4 months…
Do you realize that your comment is all affirmation and no demonstration?
why does russia not make similar crowd protests on street of scotland agasint english cheating of vote?
Because Russia is not the USA.
The Saker
What about the warning from Strelkov: that this ceasefire agreement is like the one reached in Croatia which gave the Croats time to prepare a counter-attack with their NATO masters and (illegally) occupy the Serbian Krajinas?
This is the kind of dreamy assessment that put Srelkov offside with everyone. There is no way to reason with mythology.
It is never “illegal” to liberate your own country. Serb and Russian claims on Krajina are/were exactly the same as Jewish and Zionist claims on Palestine. When someone forces you from your home, at gunpoint, you have every right to defend yourself and take it back.
And so we did, fascist alongside anti-fascist.
Why?
Because the decision to proceed violently was made by those who had weapons galore (Yugo-Chetniks) and fully prepared militias rarin’ to go (Yugo-Chetniks). In the 1990’s Serb anti-fascists mostly ran to the West. They would not die for Milosevic or his black hearted accomplice/witch/wife Mirjana Markovic or their Princling son. Remember them? (I wonder if that guy who keeps talking about how he was visited by Milosevic in a dream ever had a dream where he took a ride in one of Milosevic Junior’s fancy German or Italian sportscars).
Saker, since you remember all the details, what was your reaction to the cluster bomb fired into downtown Zagreb? Was it justified, either morally or militarily? We remember what we want and especially what we need to remember my friend. The good guys know for what they fight while everyone else is just taking a ride with evil. Was this not the case when you sided with the Contras way back when? (I believe you said so once before; forgive if I am mistaken)
And speaking of back ass-wardness…
So Putin doesn’t owe Novorussians anything but Milosevic betrayed Krajina and Bosniak Serbs. How do you swing that contradiction?
If you want to talk about equivalents, Germany did for Croatia what Russia is doing for Novorussia, only Germany demanded we pay up first by selling Dalmatia. The primary difference between Novorussians and Croats being that we didn’t have to be nudged, pushed, poked, prodded — BEGGED to defend our own country.
Meanwhile NAF can’t take Donetsk airport because half a dozen Poles won’t give it up. Maybe Croats and ‘Mountain Serbs’ have something to teach Novorussians after all. In a world of 200 million Russians less than 5000-15000 have chosen to fight for their country and civilization. In a world of 5 million Croats, one hundred and fifty thousand ran to enlist. With one fortieth the population we raised an army between ten and twently times the size of the NAF. So f’n what if we got weapons from NATO!
Do you see a difference?
But the real difference between Novorussians and Croatians is we momentarily overcame our victimhood and replaced it with a willingness to sacrifice. The Serbs never did and I’m actually saddened that their sense of helplessness was deepened. When Serbs finally enter the EU they will do so as an emasculated people. As someone who respects and loves his proud Serbian brothers and friends (that’s right, f/o if you don’t like it), this is sadest of all.
And I say this with an understanding that we have also been raped and emasculated by the faggot EU and are in an even more hopeless state.
When the EU is reconstituted as the Eurasian Union, from Lisbon to Vladivostok, ‘Yugoslavs’ will reconstitute themselves as a cultural and political block. Just as ‘we’ all stood together against the possibility of a Russian invasion in 1945 we will all stand together again. It is then that Serbs will remember that Russian support, like Croats will remember Western or Vatican support, wasn’t aways welcome and usually for very good reasons.
Now which of you self proclaimed Yugoslavs is ready to line up with ME?
And btw Saker, this was still a great SITREP.
I always feel better about the situation after reading an analysis.But then I remember my history studies and political studies and lose that faith.The Ukraine has had 23 years of “We are not really Russian” teaching in schools.A whole new generation has grown up thinking that way.Which is why you even see many Russian speakers siding with the junta,especially outside the East.Most revolutions are pushed by small numbers.And they grow larger by events.When the coup first happened around 80% of the Southeast didn’t except the junta as legal (according to polls).But that didn’t mean they wanted to break away.They just wanted a new government.When the junta sent the army to attack the people,who in taking over the government buildings had done no worse that they had done at maidan.That was the turning point.The cruelty of the attacks slowly turned most people (at least the 80%) from moderation to wanting some kind of break away.As the referendum showed.Then with the murders and shelling.I think we gained the majority for independence.Usually,I’d say 40% support our side totally.The supporters of Kiev are still 20%,and the other 40% favor our side,but mostly want peace and are more neutral,though favoring us .While in the rest of the Southeast I think those supporting Kiev is still the 20%.But supporting us is also no higher than 20%.While the ones that when we look to be winning would favor us.But otherwise will be silent are the other 60%.And in the other areas of Ukraine support for the junta or neutrality favoring the junta together is 80% and supporting us or favoring us if we look to be winning is the other 20%.
Given that level of support for the sides.I don’t see how it works in our favor,unless we are actually fighting and winning.Two-thirds of the area of Donetsk and Lugansk are occupied territory and lost to us for recruitment.And subject to terror and Ukie propaganda 24/7.If “Novorossii” is confined to the tiny area we hold it won’t be free.And if the Minsk agreements hold,slowly Kiev will infiltrate forces into the area.Until they can take it all back.The real battle is in Russia’s politics.If Putin wants to just string Novorossii alone,doing just enough for it to survive for now.But trade it for some deal with the junta later,over NATO perhaps.Then we have lost.Everyday the junta survives is another day of anti-Russian propaganda among Ukrainians,all Ukrainians under their control.So, we’ll see by next month.If Putin cleans his house in Russia.Then we’ll know he is serious about getting rid of the junta.And using Novorossii to do it.But if he doesn’t,and the Minsk agreements are still pushed by Russia.Then we’ll know he has accepted the loss of Ukraine and left the way open to the loss of Russia itself.
Sorry, this is OT, but very interesting. On global research a new article on climate. Things are looking bad for the UN’s climate change agenda.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/more-than-1000-international-scientists-dissent-over-man-made-global-warming-claims/5403284
an excerpt:
More than 1,000 dissenting scientists (updates previous 700 scientist report) from around the globe have now challenged man-made global warming claims made by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former Vice President Al Gore. This new 2010 321-page Climate Depot Special Report — updated from the 2007 groundbreaking U.S. Senate Report of over 400 scientists who voiced skepticism about the so-called global warming “consensus” — features the skeptical voices of over 1,000 international scientists, including many current and former UN IPCC scientists, who have now turned against the UN IPCC. This updated 2010 report includes a dramatic increase of over 300 additional (and growing) scientists and climate researchers since the last update in March 2009. This report’s release coincides with the 2010 UN global warming summit in being held in Cancun.
The more than 300 additional scientists added to this report since March 2009 (21 months ago), represents an average of nearly four skeptical scientists a week speaking out publicly. The well over 1,000 dissenting scientists are almost 20 times the number of UN scientists (52) who authored the media-hyped IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers.
The consensus of actively publishing, peer-reviewed, climate scientists is now in the region of 99%. Every single Academy of Science and learned scientific society (the geologists were last) agrees with the US National Academy of Science that the theory of anthropogenic climate destabilisation caused by increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is ‘settled science’. To argue otherwise is quite simply a very, very, dangerous error, or worse, deliberate disinformation for economic or ideological reasons.
Ask any Finn who knew well enough about their problematic history with Russia/Sovien Union. They knew well enough why this so called “Finlandisation” or in German “Finlandiesierung” is the key to open the lock for even much bigger Ukraine too.
People of Finland, those not brainwashed by warmongers, hatemongers and clowns of pro western war machine – huge majority of uss, understand geopolitical hard facts. We fought our bloody wars in terrible bad situation, paid horrific price just like Russians did. The point is: there will be no kind of secury for Finnish people quaranteed by NATO and being enemy of Russia. We don’t want to swallow that bait. We don’t want to be slaughtered just by some silly western fantasy. Those days should have been gone forever. My father was there in 1944 and it’s my job to tell younger generation: never again, never.
Science is not a democracy. Getting some bloke’s name on a bit of paper means nothing unless he has developed a hypothesis, tested it by experimentation and published her results.
Whilst models are not perfect – the only ‘perfect’ model is reality. It seems that humans are having an effect. If it isn’t humans we still need to deal with that which can be observed – thus cause is not really an issue.
I have suggested here, and elsewhere that what we are seeing in Ukraine is, in fact, a concrete manifestation of the knowledge that due to man’s over consumption we are heading into a time of crisis that will result in either the extirpation of mankind from the globe or, possibly, a few of us will survive.
There may be two forces fighting for the survival of humanity, each in its preferred model, but in either case almost all of us will be dead.
dusty, the global overlords know that the planet’s habitability for our species is collapsing, so they intend being rid of the 90% of ‘useless eaters’ that they fear and detest. What is happening in Syria, Iraq, Ukraine and Liberia is all part of the process.