Understanding the outcome of the war for Nagorno-Karabakh

[this analysis was written for the Unz Review]

A lot has happened very rapidly in the past two days and I will begin this analysis by a few bullet points summarizing what just happened (not in any particular order, including chronological):

The war which has just ended was a real bloodbath and it has seen more casualties (counting both sides) than what the Soviet Union lost in 10 years of warfare in Afghanistan
This war is now over, Russian peacekeepers have already been deployed along the line of contact. So far, neither side has dared to resume hostilities (more about that below).
There have been two days of celebrations in Baku where President Aliev has declared that the war was a triumph for Azeri forces and that Pashinian got nothing. He is right.
The Azeris are now declaring that they want compensation from Armenia.
There are now Turkish forces in Azerbaijan and Russian and Turkish forces have created a joint committee to coordinate actions.
Erdogan has insisted that he wanted Turkey to send in peacekeepers, but Putin has categorically rejected this demand: like any other state, Azerbaijan has the undisputed right to invite foreign forces on its territory, but these forces will not have the status and rights of a peacekeeping force.
Violent riots have broken out in Erevan where violent mobs have stormed government buildings, beaten officials and sacked the Parliament.
Seventeen Armenian opposition parties have declared that they want a committee of national salvation and the resignation of Pashinian.
Nobody knows where Pashinian is hiding, but he seems to still be somewhere in Armenia.
These mobs also destroyed the Soros offices in Erevan and they are now looking for Pashinian “the traitor” to lynch him.
Pashinian has complained on Twitter that his offices were sacked, that a computer, his driver license and, I kid you not, a bottle of perfume (poor perfumed baby!) were stolen.
The Russian peacekeeping force will be constituted of subunits of the 15th Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade which itself is part of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army of the Central Military District. It will include about 2000 armed soldiers, APCs and IFVs, specialized vehicles (EW, C3I, etc.), drones and air defense systems.
Russians peacekeepers will stay deployed in this area for no less than 5 years.
Russia will now control both the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) corridor and the Nakhichevan corridor.

Now let’s look at the position of the parties at the end of this war and compare them.

Armenia: there is no doubt that Armenia is the biggest loser in this war. Pashinian and his gang of russophobic Sorosites has brought a real calamity upon his people. Since he came to power his anti-Russian actions included almost totally eliminating any Armenian participation on the CSTO, he completely ceased any collaboration with Russia (including in the intelligence and security domains), he purged the Armenian military and security forces from all the supposed “pro-Russian” elements, he banned Russian language schools. In contrast, Armenia has an absolutely huge US embassy with about 2000 personnel (as much as the entire Russian peacekeeping force!) and when the Azeris attacked, Pashinian refused to ask Russia for help for a full month. He did ask Trump, Merkel and Macron for help instead. Needless to say, they did exactly nothing once the crisis erupted.

Truth be told, the Armenians had absolutely no other option but to accept the Azeri terms. The Armenians have suffered huge losses while the Azeris have taken Shushi, the key strategic city which controls both the capital of NK Stepanakert and the corridor between NK and Armenia. Had Pashinian not signed, the surrounded Armenians would have been slaughtered by the Azeris (in this war, both sides reported having almost no prisoners. Why? Because almost all were all executed, often after gruesome tortures by both sides). Russian analysts also say that Armenia was simply running out of supplies very fast (a fact also mentioned by Pashinian).

Simply put: Aliev’s plan worked, the blind arrogance of the Armenian leaders, along with their suicidal polices have almost cost Armenia the complete loss of NK and, possibly, even the existence of their own country. With all the best Armenian officers removed (including heroes from the first Karabakh war, which Armenia won), what was left were delusional clowns who promised that Armenia, without any help including without Russian help, could win the war and drive its forces to Baku (yes, they did sound just as delusional as some Ukie leaders).

Turkey: the next big loser in this war is Turkey whose objectives of bringing all Turkic nations under one neo-Ottoman empire have, predictably, crashed. Again. Erdogan is a world class megalomaniac and trouble maker, and he has involved Turkey in wars (or quasi wars) with Syria, Israel, Iraq, Greece, Libya, Iran, Russia and even (to some degree) NATO. And let’s not forget the bloody operations against the Kurds everywhere. He is a bona fide megalomaniac and that makes him very, very dangerous. Russia has intervened militarily in Syria, Libya and now Azerbaijan to deny Turkey its wannabe empire status and each time we saw that Turkey, as a country, simply does not have the resources to try to build an empire, especially since Erdogan simply does not understand that simultaneously opening conflicts on several fronts in a recipe for disaster.

There is also pretty strong likelihood that it was the Turks who shot down the Russian Mi-24 right inside the Armenian air space: their goal was to force Russia to stop seeking a negotiated solution and to impose a continuation of hostilities. Thank God for Aliev’s superb strategic skills which made it possible for him to do something very smart: he took the blame for what he called a tragic mistake and offered all sorts of compensations and excuses. Aliev’s decision to take the blame probably came after he and Putin (who are close friends) had what diplomats call a “frank exchange of views”.

The Turks are making a big deal out of the fact that the Azeris have invited Turkish forces into Azerbaijan. But let’s be honest here: the Azeris and Turks were always close and there was no outcome which could have prevented the Azeris from legally inviting Turkish forces into Azerbaijan. The real issue is what these forces can do. I submit that while we should never discard the toxic potential of any Turkish force anyway, there is little this force will be able to do other than a) monitor the situation and 2) coordinate with the Russians to stay out of each other’s way. But what these forces won’t be able to do is to attack, or even threaten to attack, Armenian and/or Russian forces (see below why).

Russia: Russia is the only true winner of this war. I know, there is a powerful Armenian lobby in the USA, in Europe and in Russia, and they are trying to present their defeat as a defeat for Russia. Frankly, I understand their bitterness and I feel sorry for them, but they are absolutely wrong. Here is why:

First, Russia has now established herself as the sole power in the Caucasus which can bring about peace. 2000 US personnel in Erevan did absolutely nothing for years to really help Armenia, all they did is force suicidal russophobic policies on Armenia, that’s about it. The same amount of Russian soldiers literally brought peace overnight. Here I have to explain a little something about the units which was sent Azerbaijan: 15th Independent Motorized Rifle Brigade (15IMRB).

The 15IMRB is not a peacekeeping force in the western meaning of the world. This is an elite combat force which specializes in peacekeeping and peacemaking (“coercion to peace” in Russian terminology) missions. It’s personnel is 100% composed of professionals, most of whom have extensive combat experience: they participated in the coercion to peace operation against Georgia in 08.08.08 and in Syria. These are top of the line, well trained, superbly equipped forces who, on top of their own capabilities, can fully count on the support of the Russian forces in Armenia and from the full support of the entire Russian military. Those who say that this force is a lightly armed token force simply do not understand these issues.

The entire theatre of operations of this war is very much inside the (conceptual) under 1000 kilometers from the Russian border which the Russian military wants to be capable of domination escalation should a war break out. To repeat, the Russian military is not organized the way the US military is: the Russian military doctrine is purely defensive, this is not propaganda, and it relies for this defense on its ability to very rapidly deploy high readiness mechanized forces anywhere inside Russia and within about 1000km from the Russian border and the ability to destroy any force entering this zone. Russia also relies on advanced weapons systems capable of unleashing a lot of firepower in defense of its deployed task forces forces. In other words, while the 15IMRB is only a brigade sized expeditionary force, it is trained to hunker down and hold a position until the reinforcements (personnel and/or firepower) are deployed from Russia. You can think of this as something similar to the Russian task force in Syria, only much closer to Russia and, therefore, much easier to support if needed.

Coming back to the shooting down of a Russian Mi-24, this action will not go unnoticed or forgotten, of that you can be sure. The fact that Putin (and the Russian military) don’t act like the US would and immediately initiate reprisals does not mean that the Russians don’t care, have forgotten or are afraid. There is a Jewish proverb which says “a good life is the best revenge”. I would paraphrase this by saying that Putin’s motto could be “an advantageous outcome is the best retaliation”: this is what we saw in Syria and this is what will happen in Azerbaijan.

Another sweet spot for Russia is that she can now (truthfully) declare that color revolutions inevitably result in territorial losses (the Ukraine, Georgia and now Armenia) and political chaos (everywhere).

Next, please look at the following map (in Russian, but that is no problem):

Please look at the two thick blue lines: they are showing corridors between Azerbaijan and the Azeri province of Nakhichevan and the corridor between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. These two corridors are absolutely vital for both of these countries and they will now be under the control of FSB Border Guards (Russian border guards are light, mobile and elite units comparable in terms of training and capabilities to their colleagues from the Airborne Forces. Again, don’t assume that they are anything like the US or EU border or customs officials). They are very tough elite units which are trained to fight a much superior force until reinforcements come in.

What that means in strategic terms is that Russia now has an iron grip on what is a vital strategic artery for both Azerbaijan and Armenia. None of the parties are willing to comment very much on this, no need to humiliate anybody, but those in the know realize what a fantastic pressure capability Putin has just added to Russia in the Caucasus. You can think of these two corridors as a lifeline for both states as long as you also realize that these corridors are also strategic daggers in Russian hands pointed at the vital organs of both states.

The usual Putin-hating choir which has been singing the “Putin lost control of the near abroad” mantra should now be both ashamed of their lack of understanding, and livid at what “Putin” did to their hopes, but that kind of magical thinking won’t change reality on the ground: far from losing anything, Putin secured an immense strategic Russian victory at the cost of 2 killed soldiers, one wounded and one helicopter.

From now on, Russia will have permanent military forces in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Georgia has been effectively neutered. The Russian Caucasus is mostly peaceful and prosperous, both the Black Sea and the Caspian are de facto “Russian lakes” and the Russian “underbelly” is now much stronger than it ever was before.

Let’s see when any western power achieves a similar result :-)

Conclusion:

This war is now only frozen and, like in Syria, there will be provocations, false flags, setbacks and murdered innocents. But, like in Syria, Putin will always prefer a quiet strategy with minimal losses over one with a lot of threats, grandstanding and instant retaliations. There is also what I call the “Putin use of force rules”: never use force where expected, always use force when least expected and always use force in a way your enemies do not plan for. Still, let’s not see all this in rosy colors, there will be setbacks for sure, Erdogan is angry and he still wants to play a role. Putin, in a typical Russian manner will give him exactly that “a role”, but that role will be minimal and mostly for internal Turkish PR consumption. Erdogan, far from being a new Mehmed The Conqueror and “The Great Eagle”, will go down in history as Erdogan The Loser and the “Defeated Chicken”. Megalomania might be a prerequisite for an empire builder, but that alone is clearly not enough.

What comes next?

Pashinian will be overthrown, that is pretty sure. What matters most for Armenia is who will replace him. Alas, there are anti-Pashinian nationalists out there who are just as russophobic as the Pashinian gang. Furthermore, considering the hysterics taking place in Armenia, there is a real possibility that a new government might annul the ceasefire and demand a “fight to the end”. This could be a major problem, including for the Russian forces in Armenia and the peacekeepers, but it is also likely that by the time the Armenian people really understand that 1) they have been lied to and 2) they have suffered a crushing defeat these calls will eventually be drowned out by more sane voices (including those of the currently jailed pre-2018 leaders).

There is also a huge Armenian immigration in Russia which will hear all the reporting and analyses produced in Russia and will be fully aware of the reality out there. These immigrants represent a huge resource for Armenia as they are going to be the one who will push for a strong collaboration with Russia which, frankly, Armenia now needs more than anything else. Right now, judging by what pro-Armenian Russian analysts are saying, the Armenians and their supporters are absolutely horrified by this outcome and they are promising that the Turks have now penetrated deeply inside the Russian sphere of influence. To them sane voices reply that this so-called “move” into the Russia sphere of influence will be mostly PR and that it is far better for some Turkish forces to move inside the Russian sphere of influence than for some Russian force to be deployed inside the Turkish sphere of influence. In other words, when these Armenia supporters say that Erdogan has moved deeply inside the Russian sphere of influence, they are also thereby admitting that this is a Russian, not Turkish, sphere of influence. They just don’t realize what they are saying, that’s all.

Frankly, the Armenian diasporas in Russia, the EU and the USA are superbly organized, they have a lot of money, and they currently control the narrative in the EU and the USA (in Russia they tried and miserably failed). Add to this the fact the Aliev was the one who started that war and that he is deeply enmeshed with Erdogan’s Turkey and you will see why the magnitude of the Armenian defeat is systematically underplayed in the western media. That’s fine, let a few months go by and the reality of the situation will eventually convince those currently in denial.

Right now, this is exactly the process which is (violently) taking place in Erevan. But sooner or later, looting mobs will be replaced by some kind of government of national unity and if that government wants to put an end to the horrendous losses and wants to rebuild what is left standing, they will have to call the Kremlin and offer Russia some kind of deal. Needless to say, the immense US embassy, and the hundreds of Soros-sponsored “NGOs” will oppose that with all their might. But with the USA itself fighting for survival, the EU in total disarray and the Turks failing at everything they try, that is simply not a viable option.

Russians used to joke that it takes 2 Jews to cheat 1 Armenian, meaning that Armenians are possibly even smarter than Jews (who, in all fairness, are not that smart at all, that is mostly self-serving and self-worshiping propaganda). I tend to share this admiration of the Armenian people: Armenians are an ancient, truly noble and beautiful nation and culture, who deserve to live in peace and security and who have suffered many horrors in their history. They deserve so much more than this CIA/MI6 stooge Pashinian! Right now, the Armenian nation is definitely at a low moment in its history, comparable to the “democratic” 90s in Russia or the current “liberal” horror taking place in the USA. But, as Dostoevsky liked to say, “one should never judge a nation by how low it can sink, but by how high it can soar”.

The best thing for Armenia, objectively, would be to become part of Russia (which Armenia was in its recent past). But that is not going to happen: first, Armenian nationalism is as blind and as obtuse as ever and, furthermore, Russia would never accept Armenia into the Russian Federation, and why would she? Armenia has exactly nothing to offer Russia, except a difficult to protect territory with potentially dangerous neighbors. No, Russia never lost Armenia – it was Armenia which lost Russia. Now the most the Kremlin will offer to Armenia is 1) protection against all neighbors and 2) economic help.

As for the rest, let’s see if the next Armenian government re-joins the CSTO not only in words (as was the case for the past couple of years), but in actions (like resume intel exchanges, military collaboration, joint security operations, etc.). That would be a great first step for Armenia.

The Saker

Tarik on November 13, 2020 · at 12:36 pm EST/EDT

Great article! Just want to comment on Erdogan. Personally I dont buy the crazy megalomaniac intent in restoring some neo Ottoman empire story. If you consider his personal history it seems obvious he’s a puppet controlled by Qatar through the Muslim Brotherhood. And was it not for extensive financial support from Qatar their would have never been any Turkish economic miracle and he probably never would have had any political life. This is why for instance he promptly flew in defense of the “hand that feeds him”, against the Saudi coalition after Qatar threw in the towel in Syria. Thus I think it is more appropriate to view him as a pragmatic politician caught in a very bad and delicate situation.

Remember the downing of the Russian jet at the border of Syria an Turkey? Well till now I dont recall any official retaliation from the Russians. However I note that neither Turkish Stream nor the S400 deal has been disrupted in any way. Also till today the Idlib situation remains misteriously frozen although every one knows that the Syrian army with just a little help could have easily settled the matter a long long time ago. And there’s nothing the Turks could have done to prevent it unless they were willing to directly confront Russia, which they clearly are not. Next thing you know Erdogan starts his psychedelic move on Libya with virtually zero reaction from the Russians to speak of. Now maybe Erdogan is really that stupid and he truly dreams of his Ottoman empire, but then again I’ve never seen an idiot anywhere on the planet that can hold to power for over twenty years. To accomplish such feat always requires extreme cunning.

So what is really going on one might ask? De facto I notice that Idlib and now Benghazi have become terrorist parks of sort, where probably around half of the world jihadists are concentrated under Turkish supervision. Basically a huge chunk of world terrorism is geographically isolated, and could easily be disposed of by any decent national army when the time is ripe. In Syria Turkish presence conveniently provides a buffer between Russian and US forces to avoid as much as possible any unwanted direct confrontation. Clearly Putin prefers to wait out the eventual voluntary withdrawal of the US out of economic exhaustion, rather than outright confrontation. Imagine if the Russians would bomb out every US presence in the region (which I believe they technically could with all the new weaponry now largely deployable) but then what?.Imagine the potential chaos they would then inherit. Turkish presence also negates any credible Idea of carving out a Kurdish state from Syrian territory or any likewise US scheme. In short Turkey is to a large extent actually shouldering the cost of waiting out the US retreat.

Likewise the Benghazi adventure, at close inspection, seem to mostly benefit Russia at Turkish and, to a sizable extent, French cost. Let me explain my reasoning. North stream 2 Should have been completed for some time now, yet the Germans are still stalling. Sure there are US sanctions hanging in the balance, But how effective can these be in a COVID induced economic depression when compared to the huge leverage the pipeline would give Germany over the rest of Europe and France in particular? There’s also this other pipeline project from Israel to Europe through Greece which de facto would compensate for the northern route, and on which it seems France has put high hopes. Could France and Germany have struck some deal to reassure the former and diversify Europe’s energy supplies? What ever the answer to this one, clearly the Israeli southern supplie is a potential direct competitor to NS2. Now I’m not saying that Russia wants to sabotage per se that project (actually I dont believe this in the slightest), but still they stroke a firm deal with the Germans and invested accordingly hard earned capital into this venture while they remain under the most stringent sanction regime. Every day that passes is money flowing down the drain. From the Russian perspective this must rightfully be unacceptable. Then out of the blue, here comes Erdogan stepping with both feet into Libya, redrawing in one stroke maritime borders cutting right through the southern pipeline route, instantly annihilating the entire project! A part from the sheer folly of engaging two war fronts while his economy is in shamble (assuming he’s serious about them), does he really think he can pull off his plan against the interests of Greece, France, Egypt, Israel and god knows who else? To me it just seem too preposterous. I also note that after an initial outrage, most of the countries affected seem to have much cooled down, except for France which remains quite vociferous. Anyway, the point of all this diatribe is that now the pressure on Europe to complete NS2 has suddenly greatly increased again, playing directly into Russia’s hand and to no one else’s apparent benefit, lest of all Turkey and France.

I’d also like to draw attention to what Putin recently said about Erdogan at the last Valdai gathering (I think it is called). He basically said the Turkish president was a reliable and reasonable partner with which one could always find workable solutions, and I dont think he said it just to be polite. Now how could he possibly say that with a strait face if Erdogan was truly animated by some fantastical Ottoman delusion.

With this latest events in the Caucasus, I’m now ever more convinced the guy is Putin’s bitch so to speak, and all that he’s been doing since the downing of Russia’s fighter Jet in Syria has been down-payments on his debt. Again a part from some token PR gains with his constituency, all the benefits went to Russia at his expenses.

119 Comments

Larchmonter445 on November 11, 2020 · at 6:58 pm EST/EDT

Excellent summary of the war and the present outcome, Saker.

Even if a person knew nothing, this article gives them a fulsome overview and a clear analysis of winner and losers. For some of us who knew some of the features of the situation, and have been following the attempts in Moscow to prevent this war, and the stupidity of the Armenian side led by a Judas Goat President who should rot in hell, the piece you have written is an A+ primer.

The US with an immense footprint embassy in Armenia should be the next target of the mobs. Soros’ offices are not enough. The culprits who instigated this horror with its weeks of war crimes on both sides are the American State Dept., the CIA and military attaches. They are complicit in the disaster. And once again, they failed at using this war to undercut Russian security and influence in the region.

Putin, masterfully, secured what the US hoped to possess.

This is one of your best pieces. Congratulations.
- The Saker on November 11, 2020 · at 7:55 pm EST/EDT
  
  Thanks so much for your kind words, Larchmonter445!
  I am already getting hate mail from pseudo-Christian imbeciles who think that this is an Islam vs Christianity issue. I can’t even begin to put in words how kind of pseudo-Christian nonsense depresses me – when faced with such pretend “Christians” (“Soros Christianity”, I suppose!) I really feel like throwing in the towel and giving up.
  Frankly, I am ashamed and embarrassed by how terminally STUPID some (a lot>?!) of my “Christian” brothers are…
  I wish they learned about how Saint Photios the Great deal with Islam and Muslim leaders…
  You know what it feels to research a topic for HOURS and DAYS and then get that kind of illiterate and, frankly, bigoted crap as a reaction to that work? Just makes me feel like giving up and just live the rest of my days in peace.
  (sorry, I had to get that off my chest)
  But no, I won’t do that. Why? Because the truth is worth suffering for. It is really that simple. At least for me. Yeah, I am naive, romantic and Pollyannish. But that’s me. They can’t change me and I refuse to cave in.
  My only loyalty is to Christ. Not to pretend “Christians”!
  Screw them! I have NO desire to change or join the herd.
  Hugs and cheers!
  - Katerina on November 11, 2020 · at 10:21 pm EST/EDT
    
    To Saker
    
    Please do not ever consider “throwing in the towel and giving up” – it’s the usual 80/20 ratio, lots are ignorant and indoctrinated, without any ability to form an informed opinion, just repeating what they hear, but the other 20% are pure gold. Intelligent, pro-active, with enquiring minds and impressive intellect. So, just ignore the dumb and ignorant commens – they matter not. You have a lot of people here who take time and make every effort to properly analyse, research and communicate the knowledge that is aquired. It is priceless. And you have all these people here totally supporting you in everything you do. It’s a great community and you should be very proud of this achivement. This is one of the best sites to gain the much needed knowledge and information. Long live Saker!
    As for this sitrep, it is absolutely spot-on. I will also add that the deluded Turk will really feel the burn, this is the second time he crossed the line with Russian President with an unbelivable atrocity of shooting down Russian military aircraft (you are not wrong on that one) and the price to pay for it this time will be MUCH MUCH higher. The Turk better be ready. Thank you!
  - Jim B. on November 12, 2020 · at 3:04 am EST/EDT
    
    I agree with amarynth (above). It would be a real loss for countless readers of your blog (or of your articles at the Unz Review) if you stopped writing, Saker. This latest of yours was an easy-to-follow account of the outcome of the latest war in N-K. My usual news source, Canada’s CBC radio, hasn’t presented anything as clear and straightforward as this about it — or about other conflicts in the world. Their commitment to the truth in political matters is feeble at best. I suppose they fear receiving negative feedback from influential listeners, possible demotion or actual job loss, etc. So thank you for your integrity & courage, Saker!
    - Jim Miles on November 12, 2020 · at 11:50 am EST/EDT
      
      “Canada’s CBC radio, hasn’t presented anything as clear and straightforward as this about it — or about other conflicts in the world. Their commitment to the truth in political matters is feeble at best. I suppose they fear receiving negative feedback from influential listeners, possible demotion or actual job loss, etc.”
      
      Too true – the CBC essentially follows the NATO school of thought – that is being subservient to the U.S. MIC.
    - Walter on November 12, 2020 · at 11:57 am EST/EDT
      
      Jim Canadian media reports from the same pool of mud that is reported south of the 49th parallel. If you have a conversation with ten Canadians 9 out of 10 will tell you that the policies of the Canadian government are a force for good in the world. Let’s just look back to WWI Canada has advanced the policies of the British and the American empires. What were these policies that our media shaped so that 9 out of 10 Canadians think that we are a force for good in the world? We tend to measure ourselves against others rather than against what we are and what we could be.
      
      Why are Canadian obsessed with hockey and why do most cheer so loudly when we beat the Russians.? This is not something which happens naturally its something that is created by forces in our society that benefit from this. Like the forces that shape our attitude towards hockey there are similar forces that shape our attitude towards our participation in the illegal war and bombing of Yugoslavia and killing innocent civilians. Ten (10) percent of air strikes against Serbia were Canadian. Our casualties in that war were hidden and Captain Bob Kennedy published a list the next day he was fired.
      
      Back to this excellent article by Saker. I think most Armenians have a positive view of Russians. A few years ago my wife and I were in Cuba (loved it) and as usual; I speak to everyone who is next to me even in an elevator. Two fellows were next to me looking over the pool area , they looked a bit lost and I said you speak English the response was “no speak”. They looked like South Americans, so I tried Spanish French “no speak Armenian”. I then said “Kak pazivayes?” Well it was like a light went on “ocen Xorosho bratko”. We became instant friends and with my passable Russian we spoke several times during the week I was there. They were businessmen selling . Armenian, champagne, wine and brandy. My last day there as I got on the bus for the airport trip one of them ran up to the door and gave me a bottle of Ararat brandy which by the way is excellent.
      
      On RT some articles claim that ISIS fighters were brought to Azerbaijan, it seems from the fact that prisoners were not taken that the maniacs from the Middle East were there just like they were in Bosnia.
      
      .
  - celeste on November 12, 2020 · at 5:14 am EST/EDT
    
    “I wish they learned about how Saint Photios the Great deal with Islam and Muslim leaders…”
    
    How did he deal with them? I briefly searched (wiki etc.) but did not find anything related. Do you have any reading suggestions or link something?
    - Anonymous on November 12, 2020 · at 10:02 pm EST/EDT
      
      @Saint Photios deals…
      
      Perhaps it is a reference to ‘suggestions’ circulating among certain academics that not only in the West, but in Byzance as well, the writings of classical philosophy were lost or neglected, preserved only in the Islamic lands. Allegedly Photios rediscovered them during an embassy to Muslim lands to debate Christianity and Islam (together with Constantine-Cyril, the future Apostle of the Slavs) at the invitation of the Calif, in the library of Baghdad, where he wrote his famous ‘Bibliotheca’, and that not only the ‘Renaissance’ but also what is known as “Macedonian renaissance”, where Photius played a vital role, was dependent of ‘Abassid humanism’, the ‘Islamic Golden Age’ supposedly far more advanced than the ‘fanatical’ Christian realms (East and West), hence a more ‘tolerant’, even ‘sympathetic’ attitude towards Islam of Photios, induced by a ‘beyond religious dogma’ cult of ‘Sophia’. It is true that Photios was a ‘hate-figure’ of the ‘West’ and accused of all sort of heresies, magic and astrology, the ‘father of the Schism’, influenced by the Jews and Muslims.
      It is interesting that Islamic ‘extremists’ of the time viewed the whole movement of translating the Greek philosophers into Arabic, as a Byzantine conspiracy! The Byzantines, it is stated, knew that these Pagan books would cause the downfall of Christianity if they became public; therefore they locked them up in a building. However, the ‘Abbasids, foolishly corrupted by non-Arab customs, required the books from the emperor and spread them throughout the Islamic world, thereby destroying the foundations of their own Prophetic religion!
    - Anonius on November 13, 2020 · at 8:47 am EST/EDT
      
      Celeste and others. St. Photios (Άγιος Φώτιος ο Μέγας – the Great), as the priest says in 2:00 besides being the creator of the first University, and while filosofer was a Great Fighter tor the “True Orthodox Belief”. I am with Saker, who says it’s the Christ we should believe in and not “the other things”.
      Sorry the video is in Greek posted by Church on line:
      Title: Άγιος Φώτιος ο Μέγας – 6 Φεβρουαρίου (his birth day) – Βίοι Αγίων
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3-GzYit0ZU
      - Anonymous on November 13, 2020 · at 10:02 pm EST/EDT
        
        A reminder that the ‘University of Constantinople’ was founded by the Emperor Theodosius II in 425 AD. It was reorganized many times, once in the time of Photios. No doubt that Photios received his education from Leo the Mathematician or Leo the Philosopher, one of the most learned men of his time, archbishop of Thessalonica and later the head of the Magnaura School founded by the Caesar Bardas in 855 (and teacher of Cyril and Methodius), and not from Baghdad, as it is sometimes suggested by historians determined to viewing the Christian-Muslim relations through rosy lenses and ‘deconstruct’ Photios.
        Closer to the subject in discussion is the fact that Photios was of Armenian origin (in a letter to the Armenian King Asot I enjoining him to accept the Calcedonian Definition, Photios declared himself his relative – συγγενοῦς αἵματος), like the Caesar Bardas. .
        Actually, it is not at all clear what is understood by ‘Photios deal with Islam and Muslim leaders’ other than the short moments of respite between the recurring assaults of the ‘Hagarenes’ against Byzance and negotiations regarding the fate of the prisoners. To presuppose that Saint Photios the Great, the ”man of God, faithful servant, minister of the Lord, chosen vessel, pillar and foundation of the Church, heir of the Kingdom, peer of the Apostles, confessor and defender of Orthodox doctrine, refuter of soul-destroying heresies, canon of true hierarchs and priests, foremost teacher and instructor most glorious, the mouth of the Theologians of Christ God’s one Holy Church”, could have had the same sympathies as the modern spin doctors in ‘Jewish and Islamic studies’, thinkers and politically correct journalists for those who strenuously and programmatically deny that Christ is God, but a mere prophet lesser than Mahomed, is a reflection of the undying calumnies that beset him and of a poor knowledge of the history of Christian-Muslim relations. Photios’ era marked the complete defeat of the Jewish-Muslim inspired anti-Christian Iconoclasm which brought such havoc to Byzance (and to the Christian world at large).
        Anyhow, Photius should be considered the ‘father of Russian Orthodoxy’, being the first to send a bishop to the first ‘Rus’ converts after the disaster of the Rus fleet at Constantinople in 860 and initiating the missions of Cyril and Methodius (first mission of Cyril was to the ‘Khazars’).
        
        Anonius on November 14, 2020 · at 10:43 am EST/EDT
        
        Anon, not to argue, but there must be some confusion here, as the priest at 0:21 talks about his birth date being around 180AD, and I repeat:
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3-GzYit0ZU
        Would he be confused? Maybe. The article below says that he was born in 810AD. I quote:
        ” … Ο Μέγας Φώτιος έζησε κατά τους χρόνους που βασίλευσαν οι αυτοκράτορες Μιχαήλ (842 – 867 μ.Χ.), υιός του Θεοφίλου, Βασίλειος Α’ ο Μακεδών (867 – 886 μ.Χ.) και ο Λέων ΣΤ’ ο Σοφός (886 – 912 μ.Χ.), υιός του Βασιλείου. Γεννήθηκε το 810 μ.Χ. …”
        http://www.saint.gr/3608/saint.aspx
        
        Not to throw some sand in your eyes. Armenians themselves consider themselves to be cousins to the Greeks, which is also confirmed by archaic Greek writings. Their origins are said go back thousands of years by the Greek settlers from Thessally. The name itself mysteriously reminds me of a name of Greek branch known as “Aromanoi (also known as Arimenoi) Vlachoi”. The “o, i” may have been dropped over the thousands of years? They are called Armenoi in Greek, also their (Armenian) language is said to be the only one related to Greek, as well.
        
        Anonymous on November 14, 2020 · at 10:17 pm EST/EDT
        
        Certainly your priest had a slip of the tongue. It is absolutely impossible that he didn’t know that Photios lived in the 9th century.
        Whether Photios was ‘Armenian’ or ‘Greek’ is absolutely irrelevant. He was a ‘confessor of Orthodox doctrine’, indeed one of the greatest, and we should stop at that. That Photios did not put any special weight of the Greek language, is shown by his patronizing the translations in ‘Slavonic’.
        The ‘Aromani’ actually pronounced Rrãmãnji, Armãnji, from Epiros, Thessalia, Macedonia, were linguistically neither ‘Greek’, nor ‘Armenian’. It is a Romance language akin to the language spoken in Romania and belongs to the Latin family of languages. They do not consider themselves ‘Greeks’, nor the Greeks consider them Greeks (that’s why they call them Vlachoi). But that is lateral question and has very little (if at all) to do with a supposed Islamic influence on Photios.
        
        Anonius on November 16, 2020 · at 4:46 am EST/EDT
        
        I am not going to repeat at nauseum, but just before I walk away from your comment, let me say the following: Really? Poor Vlachoi are singled out for your benefit? How about Karagounoi, Sarakatsanoi, Arvanites, and others … I am done talking.
  - B.F. on November 12, 2020 · at 5:26 am EST/EDT
    
    The Saker
    My compliments to The Saker. This is one of the best articles he has ever written. I enjoyed it tremendously.
    
    What happened in Armenia is what basically happened in Eastern Europe (Ukraine and Russia included) after the fall of communism. I call it the ‘post communist syndrome’. What people wanted after communism is what people thought existed in the West, namely ‘communist equality in capitalistic prosperity’. They thought they would become rich overnight, as if everybody in the West lived Hollywood style, as depicted in the movies.
    
    As I have written numerous times, the Yeltsin era was the best possible thing which happened to Russia, not for the benefits it brought, but for it’s horrors. The people were both educated and forced to experience the ‘benefits’ of liberal capitalism, which reintroduced the feudal era, run by robber barons known as oligarchs who, in conjunction with Western banks and corporations, looted Russia of 100 billion dollars a year. This era opened the way for the arrival of Putin and Russia’s return to the world stage. All attempts by the West to subvert Putin and Russia failed, as nobody could forget the Yeltsin era. Russian liberals, controlled by NGO’s, are now known as “Sorosyata”, or Soros’s little piggies.
    
    It is of course a tragedy that the Yeltsin era was subsequently replicated in other eastern countries, like Ukraine, where the population now regrets the coup d’etat of 2014. Instead of mass prosperity, the population got mass poverty and an open road for the dissipation of the country into three parts, as analysts are warning. A similar situation in Serbia, where I live. In 2000 President Milosevic was overthrown by a color revolution, which regretfully worked. However, in what must have been record time, people started complaining and turning away from the coup leaders, with one former liberal openly stating that his wish was to go to the Hague and personally apologize to the former President, except that he could not afford the trip. What is remarkable for Serbia is the elegant way the liberals were removed from power, which of course led to that Western sponsored coup attempt last July, which ended as a comedy.
    
    When it comes to Armenia, the same thing happened to it as happened to Ukraine. In 2018 Soros introduces a color revolution and two years later Armenia is at war with Azerbaijan, losing territories (true, it lost territories in Nagorno-Karabakh, outside Armenia, but even so, these territories were inhabited by Armenians and probably were historically part of Armenia).
    
    What is remarkable about the Azeri-Armenian war is not that Armenia lost, but that it managed to fight it for a number of weeks, bearing in mind it’s officer corps was purged of pro-Russian officers. Anybody who knows anything about military history knows what quality means in an army, as the quality factor is in many cases more important than the numerical factor. And now the people in Armenia are furious at what happened, not only that they lost some 2/3 of Nagorno-Karabakh, but that the West stood by and watched, doing nothing (big surprise). Even Soros’s offices got destroyed.
    
    The silent behavior of the US is of no surprise. There is no way that Aliev could have started this war without a wink form the US. The US intent was not only for Nagorno-Karabakh to be occupied by Azerbaijan, but also for Russia to be drawn directly into the war, leading to the destabilization of the whole Caucasus region. It did not happen. What was absolutely amazing was the speed of the actual termination of combat activities and the deal that was reached. Lavrov showed brilliant skill, and not for nothing is he regarded as the world’s number one diplomat. And The Saker is certainly right. Russia has nothing to gain by having Armenia join the Russian Federation. However, keeping an independent Armenia in existence is a different matter, as the new Armenia will act as a buffer zone between Russia and those forces wishing to destabilize the Caucasus.
    
    As for the US Embassy in Armenia, it’s size says everything. You do not need 2.000 personnel in a small country. The size of the personnel should have been ten times smaller, and this including the marine contingent guarding the Embassy. Even so, 2.000 people were employed. Why ? Even a kid can deduce that the bulk of them were engaged in the destabilization of the country and the Caucasus region, all efforts directed against Russia. The US was provoking a regional war, leading to the destabilization of Russia, this time striking Russia from the “soft” south. It failed, just like that US effort of more than ten years ago, when the US State Department was engaged in creating some sort of democratic front in Siberia for it’s separation from Russia. It ended as a laughable failure. Somebody should have told the SD that Russians are the largest ethnic group in Siberia, while Siberians are historically pro-Russian.
    
    And finally, the size of the US Embassy in Armenia and the A-A war is proof that the US, backed by Saudi Arabia, created ISIS and instigated that war in Syria, one of the intentions being the creation of a Caliphate which would spread into Russia. The US received a check mate then, as it did now.
  - MuslimVote MuslimPrayer on November 12, 2020 · at 10:11 am EST/EDT
    
    Far from a religious war, the Aliev government has little to do with Islam. Despite the animosity with Turks, what we need is a reckoning and coming together of Muslims and Orthodox Christians. History is history; no doubt excesses were committed by both side – we can reflect on it but cannot continue to live it. Time has come for Muslims and Orthodox Christians to stand together.
    
    In times of such immense heartache in Armenia, Muslims (especially Turkish Muslims) can take two key steps to start bridging the gap. (a) support the peaceful existence of Armenians in the NK region and (b) start a movement to hand over Hagia Sophia (here the Turkish diaspora has to play a leadership role) to the Russian (not Greek) Orthodox church leadership.
    
    Small gestures like patronizing the Saker blog and advising fellow Orthodox Christians to follow Sheik Imran Hosein will go a long way – let the healing begin Inshallah.
    - Onetribe on November 13, 2020 · at 12:55 am EST/EDT
      
      MuslimVote MuslimPrayer on November 12, 2020 · at 10:11 am EST/EDT
      I loved your post.
      Thank you.
      
      I am not a ‘religious’ person, in an institutionalized sense, for sure.
      
      The idea of ‘comings-together’ of like-minded parts of humanity could only be good, and in this case, might prove to be well beyond the sum of the parts, for the benefit to humanity.
  - AriusArmenian on November 12, 2020 · at 12:32 pm EST/EDT
    
    Thank you for your excellent report and analysis.
    
    Yes, ‘the truth is worth suffering for’. I was raised by elders that survived the march into the Syrian desert in 1915 which left me with hatred of Turks. Later, after meeting and befriending Turks it forced on me that they had nothing to do with 1915 and no one is alive from that time which left me without a target of my hate. I realized that people in Turkey today are innocent of 1915. I know that many Turks deny what happened but they are not responsible for it – they are responsible for what they do in our time. What I am saying here is touching a hyper sensitive nerve in both Armenians and Turks which has put me in a no-mans land between both. You are very correct that the truth can be painful.
    
    I hope like Larch that the Armenian crowds direct their anger at the US Embassy and the rest of the US/UK/EU front groups that subverted Armenia. Most of all I blame Armenians in the US diaspora groups and the people in Armenia for marching like morons to support the western backed coup. They marched right into failure.
  - Kristian on November 12, 2020 · at 10:08 pm EST/EDT
    
    Excellent report ! but in my opinion, Turkey have no incentive to shoot down the Helicopter cause Erdogan know very well that Turkey is the bait! Through Erdogan Is crazy enough and anticipating to gain from walking the fine line but I don’t think he would provoke a direct confrontation with Russia at this time – There are other actors at play, who want to see Russia more actively engaged and it’s not necessarily Armenia either – Russia is full in control and in a strong Position, but what if something terrible goes down in Baku ?
    Looks like what ever is going to happen – Russia is ready !
  - Mike from Jersey on November 12, 2020 · at 11:51 pm EST/EDT
    
    Saker,
    
    Please do not abandon this site.
    
    I knew nothing of what was happening in Nagorno-Karabakh – much less did I understand its’ significance.
    
    Now, in just that one article, I learned the basics of the current situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and its relation to world affairs. That is something I never would have understood on my own.
    
    And I know that the information is reliable. I have read other of your articles – involving things I knew a great deal about. Your articles were always factual but added insights that I had missed.
    
    In a dark world, you bring light. Don’t let that light go out.
- amarynth on November 11, 2020 · at 8:29 pm EST/EDT
  
  I’ll add my voice to this. An absolute marvel did we see with a nasty little war ending overnight, that had no real purpose excepting one side killing one other for the stupid purpose of some empire.
  
  We were talking about the peacekeepers this morning and I told my husband .. those are no peacekeepers in the normal sense of the word. Those are experienced soldiers and highly educated in their duties and the one who dares not keep the peace will probably not be around much longer to make further mischief. I’m glad to see from this piece that I did not get it wrong. How marvellous, 24 hours, bam! and no more war. (Yes, I know it will be hit and miss until things settle in!) What a marvellous use of just the right time by just the right people doing just the right things! Russia should export their peacekeepers! I can think of quite a few places where they will do just great work.
  
  Here is a little video of how people can be, really, even in war, with Armenian soldiers helping wounded Azerbaijani soldiers. (This is not comfortable viewing).
  
  “‘Dont be afraid, brother.
  I am a doctor, brother.”.
  
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKyywj_0Kwg&feature=youtu.be
  
  The Saker tells about his hatemail. I wonder how many noisy commenters actually understand the level of hatemail that you get, if you work at the Saker Blog? But this is still almost the last independent blog with the real objective, i.e., stop the empire’s war. And that is why I am still here.
  - amarynth on November 11, 2020 · at 8:35 pm EST/EDT
    
    If that youtube does not work for you, try here:
    
    https://twitter.com/A__Alimov/status/1326449869142315008
- Mike on November 12, 2020 · at 1:16 am EST/EDT
  
  I totally agree this is a very good read and helps understand what’s going on over there
  At this moment there are so many Hotspots around the world and without these kind of articles we would be much more in the dark
  Thanks Saker
Christian J. Chuba on November 11, 2020 · at 7:02 pm EST/EDT

After reading this obviously well thought out analysis, I will have to pay my penance in a few weeks when the Neocons come out with their revisionist drivel. My prediction, they will claim that Russia somehow orchestrated this entire operation to punish / drive the Armenians back into their camp, maybe even call it a ‘color revolution’ (projection). They will completely ignore their own campaign to turn Armenia against Russia and the Turkish / Israeli backing of the Azeris. (I’m inoculating myself so that when I read it I won’t have organ failure)
- Laurent on November 11, 2020 · at 8:06 pm EST/EDT
  
  Neocons in both the US and the EU revealed what they truly are by refusing to provide any help to Armenia during the conflict with Azerbaijan forcing the russophobic stooge pashinian to turn to Putin to avoid a complete catastrophe.
  Neocons may try all sort of things but as any propaganda it won t change reality. I think Armenians are fully aware of that reality. They listened to the neocons, they destroyed their relation with Russia, during the conflict they did not received any help from the neocons, they lost the war and the only power which came in to protect them is Russia.
  I think in Georgia in Turkey in Belarus and in the Ukraine they also got the message: neocons and propaganda won t save you if you push to far. Neocons have completely defeated themselves.
- Christian J. Chuba on November 12, 2020 · at 9:19 am EST/EDT
  
  It’s already started. I thought the election mess would delay it. The western owned Moscow Times spun this as ‘Turkey kicking Russia’s rear end in the Caucasus’ The author didn’t bother to hide his glee at the death of Russian airmen. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/11/10/russian-ceasefire-deal-marks-slow-painful-end-of-empire-in-the-south-caucasus-a72001
  
  The theme, ‘Russia was unable to help Armenia’. It made no mention that Armenia’s PM had been openly hostile to Russia (and Russians) for years and NATO declined his pleas for help.
  
  I have to wonder, who is Mark Galeotti writing for, who is his audience? Russians know this is drivel and the average American won’t read this, is he writing for the closed circuit of so-called western Russian experts or just to please his boss to get a paycheck?
James2 on November 11, 2020 · at 7:24 pm EST/EDT

Saker,

I’m still confused why Azerbaijan accepted the peacekeepers

As you state the conflict is frozen – subject to provocations.

As we have seen in Georgia when Russian peacekeepers were there those two enclaves South Ossetia and Abkhazia managed to stay Independent.
After 30 years Azerbaijan is still not in all of NK.
- The Saker on November 11, 2020 · at 8:02 pm EST/EDT
  
  I’m still confused why Azerbaijan accepted the peacekeepers
  
  Simple answer: because Aliyev is very VERY smart!
  Azerbaijan won. The NK was their for the taking. They don’t need to actually get their forces into Stepanakert.
  Could the Azeris defeat Armenia proper? Now way, no matter how delusional, stupid and arrogant Pashinian was, Russia had the legal OBLIGATION to protect Armenia. Had the Azeri forces crossed the Armenian border, Russia would have attacked them and destroyed them. Aliyev, being the smart man that he is, perfectly understood that. So he played his card beautifully being inflicting the maximum possible defeat on Armenians but withing crossing the red line which would have FORCED Russia to attack, and destroy, Azeri forces.
  Unlike Pashinian and his Sorosites, Aliyev is a hardcore realist. He played his hand beautifully (he is A LOT smarter than that megalomaniac Erdogan!).
  As for the end game: NK will have a special status, protected by Russia.
  That is fine with Aliyev.
  Thanks for a very smart question!
  - Blue Dotterel on November 12, 2020 · at 2:17 am EST/EDT
    
    The primary goal of Azerbaijan was to get their occupied territories back and return those Azeris to their homes, who were ethnically cleansed by Armenia in the previous war. They have managed to accomplish this. Neither Azerbaijan nor Turkey ever intended to attack Armenia proper. They certainly understood the potential consequences. This was also clear to the Turkish people and media (with a few lunatic exceptions, but you get them everywhere). It is not clear who actually shot down the helicopter (the fog of war), but it did end up having a positive effect in ending ihostilities.
    
    I am not sure that Turkey, or Erdoğan, lost anything in this war. They accomplished their stated goal of assisting Azerbaijan to liberate their territory irrespective of any Erdoğan ulterior desires. The Turkish people seem to feel that an injustice has been redressed. So, for Erdoğan, this is a success to counter what the Turkish public regards as a Syrian debacle. Erdoğan, of course, would like to put a cherry on top of the cake by placing peacekeepers in Azerbaijan, but this can be ignored. This has been an unqualified success for Erdoğan.
    
    The Armenian’s really need to find a leader for the 21st century who isn’t constantly dwelling on the failures of, and injustices done, to Armenians in the past (real or perceived). This negative navel gazing needs to end or Armenians will continue to flagellate themselves into oblivian. Working with Russia and eventually its neighbors for peace and prosperity should be the ultimate goal. Russia, and China with its Belt and Road initiative, are leading the way to a potentially better world. Intelligent leaders and peoples are finding ways to join them.
    - Penny on November 12, 2020 · at 7:21 am EST/EDT
      
      It sure appeared to me that Azerbaijan’s intent was to retrieve it’s territories. I never came away with any impression that Armenia proper would have ever been attacked.
      
      Blue Dotteral: “I am not sure that Turkey, or Erdoğan, lost anything in this war…..”
      
      The over focus on Erdogan and Turkey in all of this has been strange. To say the least. Azerbaijan and Turkey are allies. Russia and Armenia are allied (somewhat) So I find this hypocrisy espoused everywhere bizarre. To say the least.
      Turkey surely scored large on the goodwill/PR scale for standing by an ally.
      Turkey will play a peace keeping role of some sort. They will be in contact with Russia while doing so.
      And the pipeline routes should be secure. (Beneficial to Turkey and Azerbaijan)
      
      BD: “The Armenian’s really need to find a leader for the 21st century who isn’t constantly dwelling on the failures of, and injustices done, to Armenians in the past (real or perceived). This negative navel gazing needs to end or Armenians will continue to flagellate themselves into oblivian…….”
      
      Well stated.
      - Slava1978 on November 14, 2020 · at 1:12 am EST/EDT
        
        @Blue Dotteral, @Penny,
        
        Absolutely right. Specially about the pipelines. There’s another “state” bordering Syria that’s highly interested in that developments as well.
        As for Armenia – lost. One article in a Russian newspaper quoted it in a very interesting way: Armenia built democracy, Azerbaijan built a state.
        Same thing for Kazakhstan. I’ve been to the Canada’s south neighbor embassy there, met the economy team. The place is the size of an European neighborhood! Guess who’s next? By the way, the Turks were met in KZ as kings a couple of weeks ago…
  - Curious on November 12, 2020 · at 10:52 am EST/EDT
    
    If I may add my ( ignorant) opinion, I imagine there is no love lost between the peoples of the two countries. Aliyev would not be able to fully control what happens to the Armenians in the NKR.
    Think how it would look if Azeris and Armenians “locals” start fighting and it all gets international lised.
    The commander of the peacekeeping force has quite a CV, I’m impressed!
    - Anonius on November 13, 2020 · at 9:40 am EST/EDT
      
      Curious, You are correct. Azeris are Turkic people, and I am pretty sure (not certain though) that in the days of Ottomans Armenians lost many people of all ages to the Turks (Azeris including). Keep in mind that the biggest slaughters happened in the days when the communists took the power in Russia. As far as I know Russian Communists had their helping fingers on all three genocides (not directly though, but by providing weapons to Turks).
      To remind you those are: Armenian, Assyrian, Pontic Greek.
  - Walter on November 12, 2020 · at 9:12 pm EST/EDT
    
    Why did Russia sell Turkey their S-400. Turkey is a NATO member so is this a ploy to get at the S-400 and see what they are all about. and their technical compatibility with U.S.-made F-35 jets, Why did they stop shipping them to China. I trust the Chinese more than the Turks.
    - Swordfish on November 13, 2020 · at 9:54 pm EST/EDT
      
      Russia doesn’t sell their weapons with all tech details, i.e.: foreign buyers get second-grade weapons.
      
      It’s impossible for them to just replicate them by just inspecting
- JJ on November 12, 2020 · at 3:55 am EST/EDT
  
  Maybe the Turkish imported militants have done their job….maybe Aliyev is now embaressed by them and nervous what next they could do..maybe more could be on their way…maybe he is looking for a way to be rid of them with Russian help….maybe he has been told how they will be dealt with..?
  - Penny on November 12, 2020 · at 7:35 am EST/EDT
    
    Maybe there were never any Turkish imported militants other then as figments of imagination?
    Or as props in Armenian propaganda?
    The evidence for so called Turkish imported militants was highly questionable. Originating with known disinfo sources and specific agenda pushing media outlets.
    - Serbian girl on November 12, 2020 · at 8:41 am EST/EDT
      
      Give it a rest Penny. The only disinformation here is you.
- RedIsNotDead on November 12, 2020 · at 9:18 am EST/EDT
  
  A protracted and heavy price will be extracted for the shooting down of the helicopter and this was probably just the beginning. Also Aliyev must be aware that he could not follow Erdogan to the end as this would have led to significant loss of life.
SCT Leo on November 11, 2020 · at 7:30 pm EST/EDT

The first surprise to me is that I had no idea that both sides had lost a total of more than the Soviet War in Afghanistan, which is basically more than 15,000 people. Armenia should have known better than to trust a CIA puppet like Pashinian. As long as they don’t let other extremists take power now, then everything should work out fine in the long-run. Still, I feel the Armenians will be very bitter for years to have a tiny sliver of land left under Artsakh control.

Also, will Artsakh finally admit that their former Defense Minister Jalal Harutyunyan was killed in a drone strike? At least show a picture of the alive yet supposedly wounded guy. Instead, they just give a hero’s medal and keep quiet about it by replacing him with a successor.
Per/Norway on November 11, 2020 · at 7:50 pm EST/EDT

This will surely set of the Putin is weak™ trolls Hr Saker😂
But i for one agree and was already puzzling this together in my own head to a degree.

Sadly the soros crowd and regime change idiots in the US embassy/diplomat core managed to destroy another country, and i fear for all the Christian heritage sites like Amaras Monastery now under Azeri control.
Bc of what i have seen them do to Christian graves and sites in NK on telegram/reddit/4chan.

And no muslim country will care if it gets destroyed i do not remember many muslim government protest when erDogan dishonored and desecrated Hagia Sophia, yet we are supposed to care about hurt muslim feelings that leads to beheadings of teachers and stabbing of old women in prayer+++🤷‍♂️
Divide and conquer always work on masses it seems, but this double moral annoys me af.

( I can not find any major muslim countries that objected to erDogs aparently bs and i just double checked by norwegian and english searches scrolling far far down on duckduckgo, if it is not in english written arabic/persian media but in arabic/persian media i apologize. I did several versions of “muslim leaders object to” “muslim governments protest erdogans desicion” and similar searches. Nothing as i could see, only arabic countries praising him for it. And yes i am aware of what Imran Hossein have said and i love him for that. There are more like him on jootoobe to, that is why i do not lose hope.)
- Blue Dotterel on November 12, 2020 · at 4:55 am EST/EDT
  
  “erDogan dishonored and desecrated Hagia Sophia, ”
  As much as I disagreed with Erdoğan converting Aya Sofia fom a museum back into a mosque (which it had previously been for 500 or so years), I feel that your suggesting that this was a desecration and dishonor to be a perfect example of the bigotry and racism that we find in the world today.
  
  Aya Sofia is a religious ediface built to assist in the worship of God, Allah, whatever, basically, the same God derived from the initial Jewish bible, if you like. Christians, Muslim, Jews are all People of the Book. Between these religions, and even within their various and numerous sects there are different practices of devotion and mores, but essentially they tend in the same direction.
  
  That certain practitioners, such as yourself, prefer intolerance to understanding is highly unfortunate for all. It might be noted that except for times of prayer, Aya Sofia will be open to visitors free of charge to see the Byzantine mosaics that will remain uncovered in the Mosque.
  - Serbian girl on November 12, 2020 · at 3:09 pm EST/EDT
    
    “Aya Sofia is a religious ediface built to assist in the worship of God, Allah, whatever..”
    
    There are some who think Aya Sofia is some New Age, “catch-all” religious temple.
    
    They think that all they have to do is cover up the visible Christian frescoes and..Hey, presto! Aya Sofia becomes a mosque.
    
    They are oblivious to discreet artefacts & symbols of Christianity hidden in plain sight, scattered throughout the building.
    
    They reduce their religion to something superficial and material, (such as a building) devoid of all subtlety and spiritual. Instead of becoming graceful through prayer, they become grotesque.
  - Sanjin on November 12, 2020 · at 3:35 pm EST/EDT
    
    All is well, but Erdogan has boldly and deliberately stepped into the Christian world to show his version of Islamic power to those who might be concerned. And I think that’s the only reason he took over Hagia Sofia. Everyone and even Muslims can pray anywhere. They don’t need Hagia Sofia to pray. They should not behave like cats that are constantly moving and looking for a better place to sleep. I guess there is a thought that prayer is “stronger” if the mosque, church or temple is bigger and built of bigger and more beautiful blocks of stone. It is as if prayer comes from marble and not a sincere heart.
  - Anonymous on November 16, 2020 · at 7:46 pm EST/EDT
    
    @“Aya Sofia is a religious ediface (sic) built to assist in the worship of God, Allah, whatever, basically, the same God derived from the initial Jewish bible.”
    
    No, the church was dedicated to the “Holy Wisdom, the Logos, the second person of the Trinity”. Its patronal feast falls on 25 December (Christmas), the commemoration of the Incarnation of the Logos in Christ. Muslims do not believe in the Trinity and divinity of Christ. Transforming it into an ediface (sic) wherefrom to proclaim that Christ is not God and curse the Christians is desecration and idiotical defiance to the Russians.
AK on November 11, 2020 · at 7:57 pm EST/EDT

As an Armenian in the Diaspora, I agree with your analysis and share your hopes for the future of our homeland. I have been advocating for tighter integration and relationship with Russia for years. My words often fall on deaf ears. It is clear from reading and understanding Armenian history that there would be no Armenia in 1921 without USSR, and no Armenia after 1988 without Russia. We have to come together as Armenians worldwide and decide that the security of Armenia is the #1 priority. The security depends 100% on Russia, now and in the future. We forget the many times Russians saved Armenia from collapse and massacres. For now, it is vital that we repair the relationship with Russia based on their advice. Russia has a massive country with centuries of experience in foreign affairs. They have come out ahead in conflicts with Turkey and Ottoman Empire almost always. There is nothing from the West except words. Armenians were played by the West, once again, as in 1860s, 1915, and now. It is insanity to repeat the same mistakes. Let us learn. Pashinyan needs to resign, new elections, and expel the Soros / NGO types out of the country. We say the old regime was corrupt, but they kept the peace for decades. We are at rock bottom now, but we can rebuild and rise from here.
- The Saker on November 11, 2020 · at 8:22 pm EST/EDT
  
  As an Armenian in the Diaspora, I agree with your analysis and share your hopes for the future of our homeland
  
  Friend! You have no idea how much consolation your kind comment gives me. Though some will never believe me, I am a friend the Armenian people (who have been very kind and good friends to me). And do I really need to tell you that I see Erdogan and his neo-Ottoman delusions of grandeur as a major treat not only to Russia, but to the entire region!?
  
  I wish there were decent and sane people in power in power Erevan. In fact, I am pretty sure that they WILL come to power. And I feel horrible for having to say a lot of very unpleasant truth to my Armenian friends! But, please, remember the utter disgrace, shame and, frankly, total dishonor of Russia during the Elstin years!
  
  Pashinian and the rest of them Sorosites are just the (nominally) Armenian version of Eltsin and his gang of Semibankirshchina!
  
  The truth is that I really wish Armenia and the Armenian people all the peace and prosperity they deserve. I wish that too to the beautiful and long suffering Ukrainian nation!
  
  But it is PRECISELY because Russia suffered pure hell under Eltins that I know that as long as the people of Armenia and the Ukraine suffer under the yoke of terminal SOBs like “Ze” or Pashinian there is no hope for these nations. Is it not my moral duty as a friend of both the Ukraine and Armenia to say this openly? To call it as I see it?
  
  Right now Pashinian and his Sorosites are doing what all “liberals” do: they blame the entire universe and declare themselves as innocent, pure, victims. And as “Christian martyrs” while they are at it!
  
  These are all lies.
  
  My advice to the next government of Armenia? Prove to Putin that you are even BETTER allies than the Azeris who, let’s just look reality in the eyes, superbly played their card and never gave Russia a reason to see them as enemies.
  
  Maybe a return to power of Sarkisian is the solution?
  
  I don’t know.
  
  What I do know is this: most Russians love and respect Armenians! But we are not ideological enough to pretend not to understand that Pashinian is CIA/MI6, a clear and unequivocal prostitute to the Empire and a hypocritical enemy of Russia!
  
  For Russia, this is not a Islam vs Christianity issue.
  
  It is a credible allies vs Empire puppets.
  
  You would do the same thing, if you were in our boots.
  
  Still, Russia has, and will, guarantee the safety of all the Armenian people. Even if some Armenian politicians hate us, we will never allow the Turks to genocide you ever again. The CSTO (which many dismiss for no good reason) is a guarantor of that. And even without the CSTO, no Russian leader will EVER allow the Turks to mass murder the Christians of the Caucasus.
  
  Right now the pain and humiliation of the defeat are understandably blinding the mental eyes of many Armenians, but I trust (I know!) that there are wise Armenians who will correctly understand the causes and consequences of this war, and they will do the right thing. Armenians did not survive in this very dangerous region by being fools!
  
  God willing, the current outrage in Erevan will free Armenia from Soros’ and USA’s colonial domination! God willing, wise Armenian patriots will take power! And, God willing, we all, Russians, Armenians and Azeris will learn how to live in peace.
  - Blue Dotterel on November 12, 2020 · at 5:18 am EST/EDT
    
    Erdoğan isn’t so much a neo-Ottoman these days as a pan-Turkist with Muslim Brotherhood affiliations. His Ottomanism went out with Davutoğlu, and his current MHP support has converted him to a pan-Turkism. However, this is somewhat muted as he stated that Turkey and Azerbaijan were two countries, one nation, indicating that national sovereignty is not to be gainsaid, similar to Putin and Xi’s attitudes.
    
    Of course, that doesn’t mean he isn’t a danger as his suppressed dreams and delusions can again come to the fore. But for the time being he and his advisors are being very practical given their poor economic performance, and Erdoğan’s gradual loss of public support. They are looking to Libya for economic/energy reasons which the Turkish people tend to be neutral about, and are looking for a way to save face in Syria, which the Turkish people are much less supportive of.
    
    I don’t think the Armenians need to prove to Russia that they are better allies than the Azeris. They have to show that they are sincere allies. That would be enough. The Azeris need to be friends with all their neighbors: Russia, Iran, Turkey, Georgia, and, yes, Armenia, eventually. The ball, as they say, is in Armenia’s court.
  - AK on November 12, 2020 · at 1:30 pm EST/EDT
    
    Thank you Saker. Your words of wisdom match my own thoughts. I am grateful for the friendship of Russia, even when Armenia is being ungrateful. I would recommend we look for the Armenians in Moscow for a patriotic, honest, successful intelligent, and sincere Armenian who ideally is close to Putin who can be a new leader for Armenia. Surely there must be a few. In the West, we should focus on taking Armenia away from a war footing, develop the country, and develop any foreign relations including with Turkey and Azerbaijan under the guidance of Russia. Why not trusty an ally with vast more experience and success ? That is what we do in business. The neo-liberal agenda is a disaster. I would lobby for Russian peacekeepers to stay in perpetuity and perhaps a status of NKR in Russian federation, a region like Chechnya. I don’t know if that is possible but it is a positive goal to work towards. Armenia must support Russia more on the world stage. Russia provides security for Armenia and Armenia must show that we appreciate it. The West is controlled by the neo liberals and Zionists, and Armenia will always be an afterthought for them, except when hey want to drive a wedge between Armenia and Russia. We must not let them succeed.
  - Kristian on November 13, 2020 · at 6:25 am EST/EDT
    
    Don’t worry Saker, Armenia will prosper and gain more than it even can imagine at the moment, thanks to Russia – through the struggle is far from over yet , it all just started – Saint Kosmas was very clear and right all along and in the End Turkey will disappear – so be patient 😁
Disagree on November 11, 2020 · at 8:12 pm EST/EDT

I must be the dumbest of the dumbest, because I can’t see almost nothing of the explained. True, all the stupidity on Armenian pro-western government, but I hardly can see what’s the point on smashing such tiny country. Sure, it’s not Russian problem, but now it will be. I also can’t see how a killer cleptocracy like Azerbaijan is immune to Soros, when all its money comes from the West. Suppose Aliyev is downed (sure, not now, not precisely now) and substituted by another Sakhasvili. What if they legally expel the Russian peace force and simply retake all they want? What will do Russia, if do something?

It was from Azerbaijan that Israel attacked Iran recently, for sure Armenia has false friends, but it’s nothing compared with Russia’s. Turkey is a Western country, it’s a matter of time, with or without Erdogan, it will stab back Russia, and next time it will be painful. It’s a problem of nature, it is what it is, they simply can’t avoid to be what they are.

And by the way, the International Law says that Crimea is part of Ucrania (even Russia signed a treaty confirming this), and now we have a pretty precedent about how to resolve such a thing. Sure, the EU isn’t interested in a war, but maybe the war is interested in the EU. No problem, it is all far away from the USA.

It’s clear that Aliyev never had dared to do this without some warrants from Russia, and this with time will be harmful to Russia. The soviet intervention in Hungary in 1956 was more needed than this stupid war, and it caused huge damage on USSR prestige. When it be needed, Western propaganda will begin to sell that all this was a collusion between Putin and Aliyev, what’s the problem with an empire who forces Merkel to eat Navalny and ruining all bridges between Germany and Russia?

And how will be the reaction of an entire people completely humiliated? Lynching the Soros clown? And that’s all, sure?

Biden is not a retarded like Trump, nor he’s senile. The world is in complete desarticulation and fragmentation, neither China nor Russia will save the international stage and let’s see what remains of international law when things go worse. Turkey can invade Cyprus, because international law let it so, and Armenia will see an ethnic cleansing of Karabakh. Hard to see differences from the so called Jungle law (which is entirely a lie, the Nature laws are more reliable than human’s and, above all, exactly the same ones for everybody).

I must be the retardest of retardest, the only winner I see is the usual winner. Sure, it trashes Armenia, but who cares?

Many people think that current alliances are stable and long-lasting, at least for the foreseeable future. I don’t think so. Strong moral position, real or faked, is a very powerful weapon (do we remember the Stalin’s bullshit about Vatican’s tanks? Pity he died in 1953, surely he had made a smart comment about Karol Wowdylan, I mean, Wojtyla). Convenience stances don’t buy loyal customers, the US didn’t spent zillions on resources to appear as the purest defensor of justice if it were unuseful. Of course, they punished far worse, and with sadism, but hey, see how many people still believe that religion.

This war never should have happened. And far from it, I’m afraid we are in a worse position than before. Even from the perspective of Mr.Aliyev, who is the next target in order to do the maximum harm. A local cartoonist made a very funny panel years ago, with a guy in a political speech proclaiming “it’s us or the chaos”, and someone from the public, fed up, cried “so the chaos, please”. The speecher replied “it’s the same, we are the chaos”.

They are indeed. Very wonderful outcome.
- Larchmonter445 on November 11, 2020 · at 8:52 pm EST/EDT
  
  What International Law states Crimea Ukrainian?
  
  Sanctions by nations outside the UN regime of sanctions are illegal. Do you think sanctions mean International Law? Only when sanctions originate from the UN Security Council.
  
  Ukraine received Crimea illegally. The People of Crimea legally returned to Russia.
  
  When you consider that Russia had 25,000 military legally inside Crimea, you have a clear indication that Ukraine understood the actual nature of Crimea in relation to Russia versus in relation to itself. History, the USSR Constitution (violated when Crimea was gifted to Ukraine) and the vote of the citizens of Crimea are all the legal basis for Russia possessing Crimea.
  - Disagree on November 12, 2020 · at 3:13 am EST/EDT
    
    Don’t make a mistake here. Crimea is legally Ukranian, even Russia recognized it after its independence, even there is a treaty where Russia accepts to respect Ukranian territorial integrity, not to say what UN charter say. If the problem was limited to sanctions, and very painful ones for Russia (and the EU, all perfect for Washington), maybe could be thanks to the very contingent point that Merkel speaks Russia, and Putin speaks German. If the chancellor of Germany was any other person, maybe the matter would have finished the same in Karabakh. It it out of question that militarily Russia will prevail, but the costs would be huge, including the relation with Ukranian forever, and many other neighbours, and the international arena wouldn’t have been so lenient. It was a great risk, because a lot of people in the West want war. They *need* war. The EU will never accept this without any legal solution (for instance, Ukraine accepting it), you can laugh if you want, the Soviet leaders always dismissed the Baltic states question and it was fundamental for the destruction of the USSR, and the most laughable is the three tambourine states never aported anything of utility to the USSR, it would have been a better outcome, and far cheaper, respecting its independence. The main difference would be that surely the USSR, as unified state, still exist today.
    
    Sanctions could be even more destructive, in fact very destructive. See what is happening with the Nord Stream 2. This point is out of reach of any military force. Don’t make a mistake here either: the US cannot help anybody. It is impossible. The only options is doing harm, or doing nothing. It’s like treating with a drugaddict, almost exactly the same.
    
    Now Ukraine, like Georgia, like many other problems like these (for instance, *all* of Kashmir is supposedly Indian, the Pakistani stance is similar to Russian and Armenian), have the precedent it can be “resolved” if you get the correct Godfather, of course it always was a solution, the problem is this really only works if one of the parties is, relatively, so weak as Armenia is. Don’t even tell about Palestinians, and the potential destructive blow this matter has for the entire world.
    
    It is still to see how Armenia will react to this. As I say, now it is a Russian problem. It would have been wiser things were as it was, the Sorosites would fall anyway, but now they have won, trashing Armenia in the way, but it is exactly what intended. It was not an accident the West gifted Hitler with Czechoslovakia in order to improve German power to attack the UESR, which was the real target for everybody. The betray Czechoslovakia not one, not two, three times. Today, the bad guy is Russia.
    - Larchmonter445 on November 12, 2020 · at 9:11 am EST/EDT
      
      @Disagree
      
      You fail to produce the International Law. Repeating yourself with fallacies is not making a point of fact.
      We accept your argument as blather, bullshit, nonsense.
      
      Russia, the Russian Federation, never accepted that Crimea was Ukrainian. The people there from the moment of the breakup of the USSR, in several votes, well into 90% indicated they wanted to return Crimea and themselves to Russia. Finally, in 2014, the RF accepted them back when they voted 95% to return.
      
      And, since we have Auslander in Sevastopol who has for 6+ years told us the facts that the people took guns and held off the Ukies until the Polite Green Men established law and order on the Peninsula, we understand the actual facts, not the Ukie-US-EU fantasies like you are dishing out.
      
      Put up the International Law or shut up about it. You can’t show us the Law because none exists that applies to Crimea. Crimea has been Russian since Catherine and briefly, illegally, unconstitutionally was administered (very poorly) by Ukraine. That illegal status ended with the threat from Kiev to ethnically clean the Peninsula in 2014, post Maidan. That threat continues to emanate from Kiev and Lviv today.
      - Disagree on November 12, 2020 · at 9:45 am EST/EDT
        
        Are you mad or what? Excuse me,
        
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian%E2%80%93Ukrainian_Friendship_Treaty
        
        The Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership between Ukraine and the Russian Federation is a since April 2019 expired agreement between Ukraine and Russia, signed in 1997, which fixed the principle of strategic partnership, **the recognition of the inviolability of existing borders**, **and respect for territorial integrity** and mutual commitment not to use its territory to harm the security of each other.
        
        Is it enough? Russia violated its own signed treaty, isn’t it? And you can’t invoke inadimplenti non est adimplentum because Ukraine fullfill entirely the treaty -it only made a coup.
        
        Strictly, in order to be respectful with international law, Russia had to annul the treaty firstly, and rejoin Crimea after.
        
        About international law spoke frankly and very well Assad a few days ago. Everybody abides to it only if it is convenient, otherwise they crap over it. In fact there was another hypocrite pseudo-scandal recently about how BoJo craps on his own oven-ready treaty with EU. UK has been cleaning its ass with its treaties all over its existence from 1707 onwards (and England before), so don’t be so nervous, the problem with international law is, who enforces it?
        
        dave on November 12, 2020 · at 3:49 pm EST/EDT
        
        @Disagree The treaty between Russia and Ukraine you talk about is called “The Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership”. Have you ever read it? You only mention territorial integrity, but did you know that the treaty guarantees the cultural and linguistical rights of Russian speaking population in Ukraine, they also mention the black sea fleet?! In my opinion the Ukrainians, not the Russians, broke the treaty after the Maidan coup.
        
        the treaty: http://sbornik-zakonov.ru/184970.html
        
        Sanjin on November 12, 2020 · at 4:01 pm EST/EDT
        
        Not a conjecture, not a conspiracy theory, but the fact that Russia is on target from, literally, the entire “west” including the huge military component of that west. Ukraine grossly violated all agreements with the Russian Federation, not De jure, but De facto, when it allowed the same “West” to interfere in the political, economic and military life of Ukraine. And part of the hostility towards the Russian Federation becomes. No international law can force any state to disappear from the face of the earth. The NATO base in Crimea is outside any chart of international law. It’s just like that. Ukraine now needs to put the numbers on paper and see if their hostility to Russia and Nuland biscuits in exchange for Crimea pays off.
        
        the pessimist on November 13, 2020 · at 9:13 pm EST/EDT
        
        Because of the coup in Ukraine the treaty was no longer an issue. The duly elected leader of Ukraine was deposed by the rabble and armed thugs from Western Ukraine (supported by the clandestine services of outside powers). In response the citizens of the semi-autonomous oblast of Crimea held a referendum and voted overwhelmingly to rejoin Russia and Russia agreed to accept the territory and it’s people. Crimea had twice tried to secede before the coup but was denied the opportunity because the central government in Kiev refused to acknowledge their right to do so.
- Simon on November 12, 2020 · at 5:17 pm EST/EDT
  
  It is always for the people to decide on their own sovereignty. Not Khrushchev, in the case of Crimea, and not Boris Johnson, in the case of Scotland. The Crimean people decided loud and clear and acted. End of story. Hopefully the Scots will do the same.
  - Disagree on November 12, 2020 · at 8:13 pm EST/EDT
    
    I myself agree the right of the people of Crimea, Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia, Kashmir, and wherever we talk about, of their self-determination. I myself don’t think Russia violated international law because when two laws clashes, it must prevail the most important law of the two, and, I (*I*) think the right of the people is over the right of the states and their power over their own peoples. But this is all theoretical, my personal opinion (and of many others), and motive of a lot of debate, the fact as I said is who enforces international law, more important even than its interpretation when needed. Crimea is Russian not because of the right of the Crimean people of self-determintion, but because the Russian military is far more capable and powerful than Ukraine’s with NATO’s, or without. If it was not the case, Russia would have been smashed as it was Libya, Syria, and so on. This is the factual truth. Of course, Russia does not make whatever she wants, she reacts to menaces, it was not an arbitrary move nor a capricious one, not even pushed by internal politics, quite on the contrary, it was by an external and very dangerous one.
    
    But, the plain fact is Russia violated the international law. Even admitting Ukraine did so either, it doesn’t change the fact Russia too. It hardly can be considered law.
    
    I know perfectly that the USA violates international law hundreds of times per month, *literally*, in its relations with Russia, with its vassals, with Iran, with Jesus Christ and with itself. It does so because it has a lot of resources, economic and military ones, and it can smash and destroy what it wants, Russia included -with the little problem in this case that Russia can destroy the USA too. So I could easily write about a thousand violations of international (domestic too) law by the USA, this is a thing as “natural”, than hardly anyone considers a strange thing. But this doesn’t change the fact that the USA violates international law respect of Nord Stream 2, diplomatic missions of Russia, interventions on internal affairs, sanctions, killings, military operations, and an endless list.
    
    But they violate, every day, international law. I’m sorry, Russia did the same about Crimea. Yes, you can say Russia violates international law rarely in many years, and the West is a festival of rapists about international law. Of course. And Andorra never violates international law because it would be wiped out of the maps if it did.
    
    As I said, Turkey is seizing a large part of Cyprus, sure, according to international law, whixh is exactly the case Armenia about Nagorno-Karabakh, with the minor detail it isn’t according to (the consensual interpretation) international law. Another day we can talk about Montesquieu.
    
    But the fact is Russia violated international law. No court in this universe would make a verdict different of it. And by the way, Russia took the peninsula manu militari, she didn’t sue Ukraine, did she?
    
    The dissolution of the USSR, by the way too, was against international law. Who cares?
    
    I remember Paul Newman in that scene of “The Sting”, pretending to be drunk, and provoking in that party of cards in the train. Cheats by the load. It is exactly the position of the US about international law. Lonnegan/Robert Shaw was not “Russia” because he also cheated by the loads, but worse than Newman. If Lonnegan had been “Russia”, he hadn’t made cheats and he had kicked Newman/Gondorff in the balls. This was exactly what happened in Crimea. And we can accept “kicking the balls” as a cheat, simply because it is not a valid rule of the game.
    - dave on November 12, 2020 · at 9:52 pm EST/EDT
      
      @Disagree, Ukraine had NO territorial integrity according international norms when it was part of the communist Soviet Union. Russia agreed to let Ukraine loose if she got guarantees from Ukraine to respect the rights of Russian speakers in the Ukraine. This treaty was first established in 1989 then in 1998 it was ammended again.
      It was Ukraine and their western backers that broke international law after the Maidan revoluiom
      - Disagree on November 13, 2020 · at 3:41 am EST/EDT
        
        Yes, it was. Clearly. Any part of the territory of any soviet republic cannot be transferred to any other republic without its authorization, the point which makes unlawful the transference of Crimea to Ukraine from Russia by Nikita Khruschev. It is clearly an statement of territorial integrity, because an unitary state can modify its administrative boundaries without restrain.
        
        I don’t understand the point of deny the illegality of the Crimea union with Russia. It was illegal, so what? Nobody denies the clear will of Crimeans to be part of Russia, and not of Ukraine. But international law was breached. All independences require a breaching of international law, it is almost impossible making them otherwise (no state will never concede unless pressured some way), but as I said, when two laws (rights) collide it is needed to choose what of the two must prevail. In many cases it is a pretty clear thing, in many others is not so clear.
        
        If you want to believe it was legal, fine. If you, in order to save the life of anyone must breach the law, of course you will breach it, if not only, because deny helping is also a crime (see two rights colliding, the right to life is over any other and it is understood so almost everywhere). Jurisprudence has a lot of an exact science, and like maths, there are things absolutely incompatible, you must choose one from two (or from many). That is the case about Crimea, but you can bet the international law was not observed -because the Russian population of Crimea will be taken as host to attack the legitimate Russian government and its state, so Russia reacted to avoid so. Since it is the view of one part, you can deny the right of the other part of defending its point of view. If I were part of the jury, my vote would be that overruling the parts of international law is necessary to avoid a greater harm, and so making prevail some rights over others. But they prevail because they collided with them, not for respecting them.
Laurent on November 11, 2020 · at 8:14 pm EST/EDT

I am a little bit off topic here but I read that russia will create a Naval base for its warships in Sudan. In this article like in many others you say that russian military doctrine is purely defensive. I agree. That is why I am surprised by the decision of the Russian military. That base in Sudan will be 3000 kms away from the black sea fleet main bases. It s not really a defensive position.
According to you what objectives the Russian military is trying to achieve with that base in the red sea?
Thank you.
- Larchmonter445 on November 12, 2020 · at 9:31 am EST/EDT
  
  The base is a naval service base. China has one in Djibouti. Similar purpose.
  The both have fleets, Russia in the Mediterranean and China in the Indian Ocean that serve to protect commercial ships from pirates and others. Thus, naval vessels serving the African and Arabia and Iranian and Indian waters as the Russian and Chinese ships do need a service base close by. Or, they would have to go all the way home or to some very far other service base.
  
  These are not military outposts. Russia is slowly building its global naval presence.
  
  If you followed the route of the pipe-laying ship that the Russians brought from the Far East to Nord Stream 2 location, you would have seen it come down the East China Sea, through the South China Sea, the Strait of Malorrca, into the Indian Ocean, hesitate for days, then, instead of going up the Red Sea through the Suez and out the Mediterranean, because of protecting from US interception in the Red Sea (where this base will be), the Russians escorted it around the Horn of Africa and up the South Atlantic to the North Sea and safety near Russia. If this base had been established, likely, the Russian would have felt more comfortable bringing the ship the shorter route.
  
  Sudan is a strategic location. Russia has several operations going on in various African nations, training militaries, securing trade relations, selling weapons systems, and now will be able to demonstrate their naval ships and naval-based defensive and offensive weapons to many more customers. With a service base close by, those potential customers would know they, too, can get service readily for their Russian-built vessels.
Stand Easy on November 11, 2020 · at 8:21 pm EST/EDT

Thank you the Saker for this excellent piece. An outstanding overview.

Armenia came to within an inch of a catastrophe — the total loss of N-K to Azerbaijan. I don’t know how VVP et al pulled it off but they have conjured up a masterclass of diplomacy and strategy.

According to news reports Erdogan apparently demanded a role in the peacekeeping and he got it from RF but outside the tripartite agreement. The joint RF-Turkish ceasefire control/observation centre will be headquartered in Azerbaijan. Not really indispensable or even relevant to the RF peaceking mission in N-K. Brilliant concession to my mind: Erdogan gets some points for his domestic audience, Azerbaijan is reassured of RF intentions in N-K — not that it’s needed — while RF gets cooperation and non-interference viz-a-viz the real task at hand, stopping the killing and keeping the peace in N-K.

Looking at a slightly bigger picture it will be good if the lessons learnt from this debacle are also reflected upon by RF’s post-Soviet siblings in Russia’s near abroad. I’m hoping it will hasten the real emergence of the Union State and strengthen the CSTO.
bionic mosquito on November 11, 2020 · at 8:24 pm EST/EDT

It strikes me that in the long run (and prior to the last couple of years) that the best possible outcome for the Armenians and NK was something like what just happened here, but without the war and deaths and destruction and loss of NK territory. In other words, this same agreement, but with NK intact. With Azerbaijan, Turkey, the US and Israel all against Armenia, there was never a hope for a long-term military victory on the Armenian side.

I recall somewhere reading that this was Putin’s proposal all along: Armenia to give up the buffer zones, Russians to play the peacekeeper role, NK intact and within Azerbaijan but retaining autonomous status and protected by the Russians.

Saker, am I recalling this correctly re Putin’s proposals? If so, who would have been against it? The Armenians? The Americans pushing the Armenians? Azerbaijan?
William Manning on November 11, 2020 · at 8:52 pm EST/EDT

Thanks for this! Thanks very much, indeed! I couldn’t make heads or tails of Alexander Mercouris’ analysis this morning on You Tube. I couldn’t quite figure out how he could conclude that V. Putin was losing his touch and that was an altogether losing situation for all involved. Your analysis paints a much clearer picture. Thanks, again.
- Tom Welsh on November 12, 2020 · at 1:12 am EST/EDT
  
  In my view Mr Mercouris is good within his own domain of expertise; but I don’t think he knows much about military matters.
  - Red Ryder on November 12, 2020 · at 9:53 am EST/EDT
    
    Way overrated man, is Mercouris. A naval gazer. A bloated Brit expert of vast irrelevance. IMHO.
Voltaire1964 on November 11, 2020 · at 8:56 pm EST/EDT

Thank you Saker, most informative. As you indicated Armenia is a fascinating country with a remarkable history, culture and with some of the Russian-Armenian most remarkable and inspiring composers. As an outsider, I still do not understand what Armenia had to gain from leaving Russia, but more informed minds will know the actions and strength of the Armenian-style ‘deep state’ equivalent.
Azerbaijan, as I understand it, strong ties with Israel. Given the history of the chosen people’s “deux siecles ensemble” with Russia, one cannot be suspicious, given what they essentially did in Ukraine and (probably) Georgia. Anecdotally speaking, I remember one night in Astara, on the Iranian side of border with Azerbaijan, when the carillon notes of the Russian anthem played on the radio – I cannot explain why – gave me the feeling of being near home, or at least near a second home.
Serbian girl on November 11, 2020 · at 9:19 pm EST/EDT

An excellent analysis Saker.

I hope Pashinyan gets what he deserves and I hope all quislings everywhere, contemplating treason, are watching closely…

As for Aliyev, I do not share your enthrallment with him, Saker…. His gloating and chest thumping is totally inappropriate, in view of the tremendous loss of life in this war, not to mention that Azerbaijan had a lot of help from Turkey & Israel.

So what will now happen with the Israeli and Turkish operatives on his territory? If is true, as you believe, Saker, that it was Turkish troops in Azerbaijan who shot down the Russian helicopter, then it would appear that Aliyev doesn’t have much control over his trigger-happy allies…. Will Azerbaijan now become a platform for Zionist and Ottoman military adventurism??

Also, isn’t it worrying that the ink is barely dry on the peace agreement, and Aliyev has already started to make changes to the deal e..g. claiming that Turkish troops will be involved in the peacekeeping..?

While I am not a fan of either side’s leader, I am very glad that Russia has managed to put an end to the fighting which will provide much needed respite to the civilian populations who have experienced tremendous suffering.
- dave on November 12, 2020 · at 3:13 pm EST/EDT
  
  Interesting thing to note is that the Defense Secretary, who was recently fired by Trump, was rumored to be in the pockets of Erdogan (American rumor). They are trying to pull Azerbaijan into Nato through Turkey.
  
  I am expecting a similar scenario with the Republic of Srpska in Bosnia where Erdogan will help the central government to take control of the country while the West pretends to oppose the Turkish actions and at the same time are pulling Bosnia into Nato.
Spiral on November 11, 2020 · at 10:02 pm EST/EDT

Saker,

Great article, and I like the fact that you often share with us your feelings, while
keeping them largely separated from the analysis.

Two other items are not quite clear to me:

1. How is this war related to current and future gas/oil lines from Caspian sea to Turkey?
2. What is the status of Turkish, Israely, American and even Russian military bases/labs/outfits
in Azerbaijan.

Regards, Spiral
Mujjammil Hussain on November 11, 2020 · at 10:54 pm EST/EDT

Thank you Saker. This is definitely one of your best analyses.
Russia following the footsteps of Zulqarnain in the Caucasus! Music to my ears!
Conjecture on November 11, 2020 · at 11:18 pm EST/EDT

“Pashinian has complained on Twitter that his offices were sacked, that a computer, his driver license and, I kid you not, a bottle of perfume (poor perfumed baby!) were stolen.”

Wait! Perfume? That must be Novichok, surely? Inform the BBC tabloid immediately!
Straight-Bat on November 12, 2020 · at 12:00 am EST/EDT

Saker,
Many thanks for a wonderful essay. I would like to draw your attention to the shortcoming – you have presented the status for 3 parties (Armenia, Russia, Turkey), but what about Azerbaijan? Did Azerbaijan really gained anything (apart from the fact that Aliyev family established more control on this ‘statelet’).

My views rarely appeal to most of the readers/ analysts, but I also believe that, “ultimately truth will prevail”. ‘Statelets’ like Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Novorossia etc. can’t offer their citizens a decent standard of life and can’t build a prosperous society because of inherent weaknesses of their political entity. For the 90% common people of these so-called ‘countries’, the best option is to create a new people’s union state of eurasia. This is not idealism – I’m playing the role of a realist on behalf of the poor helpless citizens of those ancient communities!
eddie on November 12, 2020 · at 1:28 am EST/EDT

After its quick victory in NK, the main thing is for Turkey and its Idlib employees to relax and allow for a brief peace dividend..
Perhaps they might enjoy being tourists among their new partners in Dagestan, Ingushetia, North Ossetia, and so on..
Enjoy the locals’ wine and bar-b-que, build some Victory mosques..
Jovan on November 12, 2020 · at 1:51 am EST/EDT

From Wikipedia:
“Civil Contract advocates for maintaining strong connections between Armenia and Russia while promoting Eurasian integration with other CIS and Eurasian Union member states. At the same time, Civil Contract does continue to support Armenia’s European integration through developing closer ties with the European Union and to eliminate visa requirements for Armenian citizens traveling to the EU’s Schengen Area. In October 2019, Deputy Prime Minister Tigran Avinyan stated that he sees a lot of potential growth in both economic and political ties with the EU. Avinyan also advised that, “Any future EU accession is a question that the people of Armenia need to answer and would only occur following the withdrawal of Armenia from the Eurasian Union.”[12]

In 2019, the party’s leader categorically ruled out the prospect of Armenia leaving the EAEU or the CSTO, stating that Armenia would not do a “u-turn” in Foreign Policy”
jiri on November 12, 2020 · at 1:52 am EST/EDT

“Armenia has exactly nothing to offer Russia, except a difficult to protect territory with potentially dangerous neighbors. No, Russia never lost Armenia – it was Armenia which lost Russia. Now the most the Kremlin will offer to Armenia is 1) protection against all neighbors and 2) economic help.”

How would this be an advantage to Russia?

It looks like taking on all the responsibility but none of the advantages of a territory being part of Russian Federation.
Gregory Bogosian on November 12, 2020 · at 1:55 am EST/EDT

“No, Russia never lost Armenia – it was Armenia which lost Russia.” That is false. We have Armenia voting to leave Russia on video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73L-FJhebW0
- Anonymous on November 12, 2020 · at 9:39 am EST/EDT
  
  How is it going for you?
- Swordfish on November 13, 2020 · at 10:22 pm EST/EDT
  
  The more Armenia tries to distance itself from Russia, the more it hurts itself. There’s no other reliable ally for Armenia other than Russia. The US is only using Armenia to push NATO into the Caucasus. It will be a shooting range for NATO. There’s no other use of Armenia for them other than that.
  
  If Armenia expels the Russian base, they would be virtually defenseless in a future war with Azerbaijan. It was the Russian presence that kept the Turks and the Azeris from marching into Armenia.
Wendy on November 12, 2020 · at 2:21 am EST/EDT

Yeah well be that as it may the fact is for Armageddon roads must be opened so that the players can move into their assigned positions.

Once the troops are out of Afghanistan and therefore out of the fallout zone all bets are off.

And what does this war mean for Persia?
Adjemian on November 12, 2020 · at 2:32 am EST/EDT

I am half Armenian and I totally agree with your article. I was very scare of the revolution that took place and thought that could be the end of Armenia. What had happened remind me of Libya when trying to be friend with everybody. The outcome for Armenia is not too bad thanks to Russia. Anyway in the long run regions had to be lost 2 millions of Armenian versus 10 millions. I hope that the lesson will be learn. There are some Armenians jewish who have a different agenda, and a diaspora that is blind.
Yousef on November 12, 2020 · at 2:36 am EST/EDT

Saker, I appreciate your always spot on analysis of world affairs. I find your analysis is far superior, professional, well thought out, respectful of those you analyze and your reader. Your writings and objective analysis should be tought to college students before they graduate. I deal with morons who thinks it is all war on Islam. Again I appreciate your standing for is right regardless of their pathetic feelings.
Remember elephants never get bothered by mosquitoes.
We all try pass through this station and move on.
Your brother from Jordan
Vileglow on November 12, 2020 · at 3:52 am EST/EDT

It is most worrisome that such a cruel war went under the radar. It means we may have more blood baths. A great opportunity to show the horrors of wars to people. The “war is not a video game” message.

On the positive side, what your elegant piece shows is something more perennial, which is not obvious for those ignorant of the Art of war: how actual peace has been preserved between the two warring countries.
So the weakness and isolation of the Nakhichevan enclave countering the weakness and isolation of the enclave nation itself of Armenia versus Azerbaijan. It sounds a peacemaking version of the Divide & Conquer strategy of the British Empire, also favouring Iran, and now, Russia.

Thanks for giving us beauty and hope.
- JC on November 12, 2020 · at 5:04 am EST/EDT
  
  Thanks a lot Saker for your excellent analysis. Do you have some comments about Iran in this agreement?
  Best regards
  J.C.
kiwiklown on November 12, 2020 · at 4:54 am EST/EDT

Saker, please, please, please do not stop.

If they say that the best revenge is a good life, then part of the good life for truth speakers is to go on speaking truth, pointing out error.

Thanks to your work, I learned that there is a war on Russia, and that we can work to stop this war. I learned to view Russians as human beings, to love Russia, to respect the Orthodox Church, to separate myself from the “church” as she is organised in the West. As well, with new eyes opened from reading your site, I now see there is a war against China.

As Katerina says, there is always the 80%. The poor we shall always have with us. They are ‘repeaters’: they repeat error continually. Except that they also have an confounding capacity to reject truth.

Little-known fact: There is an Armenian Church, and an Armenian Street in far away Singapore.
- Faisal on November 12, 2020 · at 3:04 pm EST/EDT
  
  Same in the city of Chennai, formerly Madras, Tamil Nadu. There is an Armenian church founded in 1712. The street where the church is located known as Armenian Street.
  
  https://mirrorspectator.com/2017/01/19/armenian-church-in-chennai-rots-away/
Mike Smith on November 12, 2020 · at 5:11 am EST/EDT

Thank you Saker.
May God be with you always.
Mairon on November 12, 2020 · at 6:35 am EST/EDT

It’s hard to add anything to this truly superb analysis of the outcome of the Nagorno-Karabagh conflict by the Saker.

I have a couple of observations myself and will expand on some of the key points Saker has made in the article.

This conflict presented not a small danger for Russia, and when I say this I mean the use of Jihadists from Syria in the Caucasus by Erdogan’s Turkey. We had several statements from Russian security officials to this effect, warning of the danger of penetration of Jihadists into Russia proper. The other danger was the expansion of neo-Ottomanism though now I think this danger has been exaggerated.

Putin has demonstrated his strategic capabilities by brokering this peace deal between two sworn enemies (the hatred Armenians and Azeris have for each other is truly remarkable), neutralizing Erdogan and clipping the wings of Western-backed Pashinian, likely for good. Turkish and in extension Western plans for the Caucasus and Central Asia have suffered a considerable setback.

As for the future of Armenia, right now it does seem gloomy. One doesn’t have to be an Armenian nationalist to see the outcome of the war as a national disaster, now it’s on the Armenians to recognize the errors which brought about this outcome and to find a solution.
- Penny on November 12, 2020 · at 12:49 pm EST/EDT
  
  Penny, this is not your website, please stop the many posts you keep making over and over on the same topic – one will suffice. Mod.
  
  Mairon
  
  ” warning of the danger of penetration of Jihadists into Russia proper”
  
  From Syria? Because of Turkey? I’m not sure how you failed to notice the abundance of jihadists in Chechnya.
  
  Dagestan.
  Georgia (Pankisi Gorge)
  
  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36035312
  
  https://theintercept.com/2015/07/09/mujahedeensvalley/
  
  from where many jihadists orginated who entered Syria via Kurdish territory in Iraq
  
  I could provide more links, but, you might want to check out a map and take a bit of time to research and understand that jihadists (so called) have been at Russia’s door and for that matter have attacked Russia on numerous previous ocassions. Including a rather large attack in 2010. Another one in 2017.
  
  I’d think Saker would be familiar with some of these?
JJ on November 12, 2020 · at 6:36 am EST/EDT

https://www.euractiv.com/section/azerbaijan/opinion/russian-military-shipments-to-armenia-a-dangerous-escalation/

An assessment by an Azerbaijani of the circumstances they feel has led up to the war enacting. Whether one believes there were Armenian provocations….misunderstandings…hyperbole…exaggerations…deliberate provications from Azer side that Armenia responded to in defense and that has been used to try and substantiate more…..what comes across is the very suspicious and completely mistrustful (almost hysterical?)of the previous Armenia and Russian relationship and military supplies to the Russian base from Azerbaijan( whether just tradition or deliberate ). Eg Shoygu petsonally spoke to Aliev re the base but was not believed- deliberate or just attitude from the latter?

Also in the past there does seem to have been some antaganism between Armenia and Russia over events resulting from the base and local relationships. One senses possibly that military management and role of the base in the past might not have been the best and was a sensitive issue.

One wonders whether both the Azerbaijani and Armenian sides and their inherent rooted perspectives (whether fanciful or deliberately exaggerated or manipulated from a basis of truth) can and will adapt to change under the new circumstances….and probably there is a huge amount of effort needed from Russia in the face of the populus embedded thinking and emotional beliefs to convince them of the value of the Russian presence in Azerbaijan let alone Armenia. We shall see …hopefully for the full five years….and no development of issues or manipulated circumstances to cause it to fail…..?
- JJ on November 12, 2020 · at 7:28 am EST/EDT
  
  Forgot link to Azer article
  https://www.euractiv.com/section/azerbaijan/opinion/russian-military-shipments-to-armenia-a-dangerous-escalation/
Down South on November 12, 2020 · at 6:44 am EST/EDT

Hi Saker

Something doesn’t make sense to me in this conflict.

A genuine question.

It seems to me that Armenia did very little to help Artsak militarily and what I mean by that is, when Azerbaijan with Turkish help invaded NK why did Armenia not mobilise it’s army and engage in war to repel the attack if that area means so much to Armenians or did they and their army is just very weak and they tried but couldn’t repel the attack ?

The reason I’m asking is that it seems to me that Armenia proper did not do all they could to repel the aggression.
Penny on November 12, 2020 · at 7:32 am EST/EDT

Saker “Turkey: the next big loser in this war is Turkey whose objectives of bringing all Turkic nations under one neo-Ottoman empire have, predictably, crashed.”

Let’s check that statement?

1- Turkey’s ally has retrieved it’s territories- which is a win for Turkey
2- Turkey was fully included in the settlement of this issue- win
3- They will have their peacekeepers nearby. – win
4- They are still on working/good terms with Russia. Still looking like a partner in NK.- win
5- Pipelines should remain secure which is good for both Azerbaijan and Turkey- win

“Erdogan is angry”- Can’t see how you would know that? In fact, it’s quite certain you can’t know that.

The usual Putin haters will be out in full force and a whole lot of Armenians will jump aboard that train.

Pashinian will be overthrown or leave- Very possible.

Armenia doesn’t need Russia’s “protection” from it’s neighbours- Russia has very good relations with Azerbaijan. Which is why they did nothing to jeopardize that relationship. Armenia needs to be a good neighbour.
- Swordfish on November 13, 2020 · at 10:25 pm EST/EDT
  
  Wrong. Russia hasn’t agreed to joint peacekeeping in the region. There would be only Russian peacekeepers
  
  Russia is definitely not a partner of Turkey. They have proven that they can’t be trusted. Putin waits for erdogan to make one huge mistake.
RedIsFarFromDead on November 12, 2020 · at 9:15 am EST/EDT

Wow. The best most objective and realistic summary I have read. The Saker clearly has a good understanding of the situation and the powers at play. The comments about the attack on the helicopter are spot on.
Would like to have seen some more speculation regarding Russia and West working together on this outcome, because it is pretty clear in my opinion that there was collaboration.
Impressed.
Penny on November 12, 2020 · at 9:49 am EST/EDT

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/putin-favors-turkeys-participation-in-osce-minsk-group/2023749

Putin stated and I quote entirely

“”At the first stage, we need to stop fighting, stop the loss of life, sit down at the negotiating table and find a consensus and balance of interests based on the proposals formulated by the Minsk group and its co-chairs — Russia, the US, and France — along with the participation of other members, including Turkey and a number of European states,”
Char hard on November 12, 2020 · at 10:35 am EST/EDT

I had no understanding of this issue prior to your article but now I feel like I’m up to date. do not let the “Christians“ get you down.. they are truly like sheep and believe only what they are fed and go only where they are led. The problem is like sheep they are following the good shepherd Christ in name only. The powers that be are using Christ to talk them into wars in atrocities. It is voices like yours that Reach them. Thank you for your efforts.
Chsr hard on November 12, 2020 · at 10:54 am EST/EDT

Question for the Saker
Does the silk road play a part in this conflict?
Thanks
2nd question
Does Soros represent a Geo political movement bigger than just one person name Soros? If so what is the movement or the regime?..the
old ruling class of Europe? The head of the oligarchs? The stste of Israel? The communist party? Zionists? Davos Crowd? Etc
- Micron on November 12, 2020 · at 11:50 am EST/EDT
  
  Very clear and level-headed analysis Saker, thanks.
  
  Really the saddest thing in this conflict is to see how ordinary Armenians got completely sacrificed by their incompetent leadership.
  
  But on the other hand, are they really that innocent ? A nation has the leaders it deserves. Armenians have put up with Pashinyan and his ilk for years now. The fact is, they have tolerated them. If Armenia is democratic, then Armenias’s demos bears final responsibility. They can only blame themselves.
Victor on November 12, 2020 · at 11:44 am EST/EDT

I hate propaganda and propagandists
As a propagandist, you will present the large victory of Aliyev as a victory of Russia and the nightmare of christian armenians as a victory on, as you say, christian imbeciles. You will present the patriotic riots in Armenia as hysterics.
Your vocabulary is full contempt.
What happened during the last few weeks is, on the contrary, a great disaster for Russia and the great russian people.
I hate propaganda because i love the real world and the real people.

I apologize for my poor English
Jim Miles on November 12, 2020 · at 11:51 am EST/EDT

“Canada’s CBC radio, hasn’t presented anything as clear and straightforward as this about it — or about other conflicts in the world. Their commitment to the truth in political matters is feeble at best. I suppose they fear receiving negative feedback from influential listeners, possible demotion or actual job loss, etc.”

Too true – the CBC essentially follows the NATO school of thought – that is being subservient to the U.S. MIC.
- Conjecture on November 12, 2020 · at 2:07 pm EST/EDT
  
  What do you expect from the state broadcaster of a US colony? Look at their coverage of Syria and consistent anti-Russia vitriol, rolling out endlessly the same russophobic names- Anne Applebaum etc.. Or Bill Browder of Magnitsky fame, and Navalny. How about barrel bombs, ‘chemical’ attacks, the last hospital in Syria bombed endless times, MH17, Skripals…
Mick McLennan on November 12, 2020 · at 1:00 pm EST/EDT

Hi Saker
This is a fantastic summary of actual ‘facts on the ground’, that I suspected you were working on with developments very relevent to your concerns and interests, (of Russia, s wellbeing and security). I have found your outlook very astute mostly over quite a few yrs I been reading you, (ghassan and Intibah who are friends and neighbors. Introed me to your site in early yrs of war on Syria) I am just a roofer not acedemic in any way. But a reader and autonomous spirit. Bless you mate. You speak truth to power, literally assisting the Angels.
Sturm on November 12, 2020 · at 2:53 pm EST/EDT

Armenia, population ~3 million. Azerbaijan, population ~9 million.
Just how many military minds out there take into account the population mass or weight when waging war?

WW1, WW2 Allies vs German, WW2 Soviet defense, Napoleon’s foray into Russia, Vietnam war, Korean war … good lessons were taught. All will degenerate into a battle of attrition (in conventional warfare), time does not matter.

Long term, Armenia/Azerbaijan need to negotiate a win-win. That means trading/swapping a portion of their “claimed” territories to permanently connect the separated Azerbaijan territories. Ideal solution would not be a corridor (impossible to defend and creates another separation of territory) but a solid southern border enclave around Arevik/Shikahogh region. Likewise, Azerbaijan should not be too greedy – an unresolved situation will always simmer and invite stirring up by foreign actors. Another fracas is a matter of when, not if.

P.S. Collective US embassies in India ought to be ballooning in size soon. Should be trivial to map these oversized embassies in various other countries to see where the US is stirring the pot.

Russia should be wary of the US stirring up the hornets nest along its southern borders which requires Russian intervention. The pattern is clearly emerging. No idea why the empire is adopting this strategy – it won’t exhaust Russia but instead give them troop experience and real weapons field testing. Idiots, imo. Expect another blowout, perhaps in one those “-tan” countries, including Pakistan (which is mostly China’s interest).
Simon on November 12, 2020 · at 4:52 pm EST/EDT

Dear Saker

You say Aliyev “played his card beautifully”. Yes, and with impeccable timing: like a mousetrap, closing precisely and clinically on its prey. I don’t think it is a coincidence that all of this occurred while the USAmericans were punching each other senseless in the lead up to their election. I suspect that Aliyev knew that once their domestic dust settles the USAmericans will return their lizard gaze to the outside world.

You didn’t include the USAmericans in your list of big losers in all of this. But it seems to me that the Russians have yet again demonstrated to the world the growing extent of USAmerican impotence.

I agree with others when they say this is one of your best pieces. I live in a very safe neck of the woods far from this conflict. But I care about innocent, peace-loving people who get caught in the crossfire in such places. Your words shine a very clear light on events that would otherwise be difficult for me to understand. So please continue and best wishes.
Coldish on November 12, 2020 · at 5:30 pm EST/EDT

Thank you, Saker, for that illuminating and objective analysis. Good news is hard to come by these days, and you’ve made clear how promptly and effectively Russian statesmanship has halted the crisis. We can only hope that Armenians will now see sense and get rid of anti-Russian elements in their government.
PaulB on November 12, 2020 · at 8:08 pm EST/EDT

Terrific analysis. I would only add that ‘Revenge is a dish best served cold’. What exactly did
Armenian PM Pashinyan think would happen when he aligned himself with George Soros and the US State Department? Did Pashinyan bother to spend 5 min examining US post-911 foreign policy, which created astronomically expensive strategic debacles in Afghanistan (longest war in US history), Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen (with new wars planned for Iran, China & Russia). Your concluding remarks sum things up well-
‘The best thing for Armenia, objectively, would be to become part of Russia (which Armenia was in its recent past). But that is not going to happen: first, Armenian nationalism is as blind and as obtuse as ever and, furthermore, Russia would never accept Armenia into the Russian Federation, and why would she? Armenia has exactly nothing to offer Russia, except a difficult to protect territory with potentially dangerous neighbors. No, Russia never lost Armenia – it was Armenia which lost Russia. Now the most the Kremlin will offer to Armenia is 1) protection against all neighbors and 2) economic help.
Bottom line- when you make stupid decisions, this can come back to haunt you in may ways. Let’s hope calmer/rational heads prevail in Armenia.
Srbalj on November 12, 2020 · at 8:29 pm EST/EDT

Congratulations to the Saker for one of his best articles to date, a superb achievement in a catalogue of superb achievements. I also feel I have to say this on behalf of all Serbian nationalists (Srbski rodoljubi), I think my brothers will support me, that my heart & soul goes out to what we Serbs consider to be a brother nation – Armenians/Jermeni – maybe second next to our truest of brothers – Rossiya – I feel gutted for what has just happened to them. But, the lives of martyred Armenian heroes will not be in vain, for Russia’s intervention here is the blessing, Armenia will now pass into Russia’s sphere of influence for evermore. The political scene within Armenia will almost certainly, over time, for reasons of self-preservation, have to gravitate to a brotherly stance towards Russia. I suspect that most Armenian patriots truly feel this way. There is a distinct possibility that the US embassy will have to be evacuated, especially if word gets out that Pashinyan is hiding there – & trust me, Nikol Pashinyan is hiding in the US embassy. In the coming days the protests will move there, US military attaches & CIA security better be careful what they order their trigger men to do, otherwise it won’t only be Pashinyan who is killed, Saleh style (Yemen). The scale of Pashinyan’s treason is yet to be uncovered, but there is a good chance that he did what Slobodan Milosevic did with respect to Republika Srpska Krajina (Republic of Serbian Krajina) in the 90s, where he agreed with Croatian president Tudjman to allow Serbian Krajina to be “re-integrated” into Croatia, leading to the US backed Operation Storm (August 1995) resulting in the exodus of 250,000 Serbs from ancient lands. This was a disaster, & eventually led to the Serbian military, police and state security apparatus abandoning Milosevic & allowing a CIA sponsored coup d’etat against him on 5th October 2000 – which in turn resulting in Serbia becoming a US vassal state ever since. That is about to change, but it has been a long hard process for all of us, because we should have been in a solid alliance with Russia ever since Putin came to power – military, economic, confederal even, as the Serbian Radical Party once advocated. Armenia must survive, for Russia to be secure to the south, a strong Armenian state with a solid pro-Russian government is essential in the longer term – there will be conflict with Turkey, it is building up to that, the West are pushing for it, & it will happen, but the Armenians must clean house. Judging by events in Yerevan, this looks set to happen. (US embassy staff should activate an evacuation order if they haven’t already).
- Serbian girl on November 13, 2020 · at 9:39 am EST/EDT
  
  Srbalj,
  With all due respect the situation Serbia-Armenia is completely different.
  
  The Krajina Serbs had signed a peace deal (Z4 plan) with Croatia, to be re-integrated into their country. A few days later, the Croats reneged the deal, and attacked the Serbs (this attack btw is now on record as the single largest war crime of the Balkan wars.)
  
  Here are the source documents of the Milosevic trial in the Hague which provides a detailed outline of how the the Z4 plan was signed:
  http://slobodan-milosevic.org/news/smorg-anl082804.htm
  
  Regarding this war in the Caucuses, there was no such peace deal in place when the Azeris attacked. The Armenians never offered anything, no peaceful concessions etc and have now forfeit the territories in battle.
  
  The outcome may be the same (loss of territory) but there is a huge moral difference.
  
  Also, the Azerbaijanis are allowing the Armenians civilians to stay in NK.. They don’t seem rabidly focused on obtaining an “ethnically pure state”. In this way they are more generous and honourable than the Croats.
  
  Let us hope that both sides now keep their word for the peace agreement.
Galust on November 13, 2020 · at 3:48 am EST/EDT

It is true that Pashinyan did lots of idiotic and immature things Such as insulting Putin and humiliating Aliyev before this war began. But people do but understand the level of hatred that Armenia’s population still has for the previous leadership of Armenia. The previous leadership was extremely corrupt, monopolistic and they would elect mayors and even village leaders from their ranks and they would take lots of bribes and do lots of abominations against those who didn’t belong to their party. They totally stifled economic growth and many times over insulted diaspora Armenians who would want to invest in Armenia. From my impression from people who live in Armenia, they still prefer Pashinyan’s immaturity over previous leadership’s out of control corruptions. Russia has already warned the previous leadership not to manipulate and promise people stupid things such as taking back the lost territories. But now as they are going to open all the blocked economic roads from russia-Azerbaijan-Armenia and Armenia-Nakhichevan-Iran and Azerbaijan-Nakhichevan, now finally after 30 years this region finally has a chance to prosper. Armenia and Azerbaijan can even start trading with each other. All that remains is for Turkey to open its borders to Armenia. And if Armenia wants it can start buying a lot of missiles and military drones from China in case there is another war, and they can even pursue secret nuclear program to once and for all have %100 deterrence against everyone who would want to destroy them.
Anonymous on November 13, 2020 · at 7:55 am EST/EDT

May you always be as right in your predictions as this time. thumbs up.
Daniel on November 13, 2020 · at 10:19 am EST/EDT

Russia and Turkey have implemented similar “deescalation” agreements, spheres of influence, and joint patrols in Libya and Syria. In neither of these cases has the host-state benefited, given the continuation of instability and the persistence and/or growth of Islamist, separatist insurgencies, in each case actively sponsored by Turkey and effectively condoned by Russia. (In Syria Assad has even complained that the Turkish-Russian agreements have failed to secure Syrian territory, in light of ongoing terrorist attacks, destruction of Syrian agriculture and infrastructure, and so on.) As in the case of Artsakh, the Russians and Turks concluded separate agreements that effectively excluded the host-state—even as an observer. (Similarly, the prelude to the Munich Agreement excluded Czechoslovakia from having any say in the proceedings, much less a real presence.)

Turkey will undoubtedly exploit the current arrangement in Artsakh to send logistical, financial, and other support to militants vis-à-vis Azerbaijan, and will utilise territorial and extraterritorial acquisitions by Azerbaijan, including transport, to destabilise what’s left of the Armenian rump-nation via Naxçıvan. Pakistan and the GCC will undoubtedly continue to support Wahhabi–Salafi activity in the Caucasus on behalf of Turkey, Israel, and the West. So the threat of terrorism will continue to grow and undermine the viability of Russia’s influence in the area. Iran will also be pushed “out of the picture” and “softened up” for attack.

The people who want Russia to abandon its “ungrateful” allies are only serving the West’s takeover of the post-Soviet sphere. If Armenia weren’t so important, the West wouldn’t have even tried to gain a foothold in its vicinity, much less in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, et al. Like it or not, Russia can’t afford to let the West exploit and peel off its civilisational components. The only reason “colour-revolutions” succeeded is Russia’s neglect and inattentiveness. Let’s face it: most of the Russian establishment, excluding the patriotic elements in the military, is pro-Western and pro-liberal, exerting formidable influence even under Putin. These people deliberately sabotage Russia’s attempts to maintain cultural and economic ties to its neighbours, its erstwhile allies and Soviet republics. If not for these people, Russia would have toppled Saakashvili in 2008, reversed the Maidan coup in 2014, and not have allowed Pashinyan to seize power. Russia would not have allowed the West to move about uncontested in the realm of bribery and ideology.
Tarik on November 13, 2020 · at 12:36 pm EST/EDT

Great article! Just want to comment on Erdogan. Personally I dont buy the crazy megalomaniac intent in restoring some neo Ottoman empire story. If you consider his personal history it seems obvious he’s a puppet controlled by Qatar through the Muslim Brotherhood. And was it not for extensive financial support from Qatar their would have never been any Turkish economic miracle and he probably never would have had any political life. This is why for instance he promptly flew in defense of the “hand that feeds him”, against the Saudi coalition after Qatar threw in the towel in Syria. Thus I think it is more appropriate to view him as a pragmatic politician caught in a very bad and delicate situation.

Remember the downing of the Russian jet at the border of Syria an Turkey? Well till now I dont recall any official retaliation from the Russians. However I note that neither Turkish Stream nor the S400 deal has been disrupted in any way. Also till today the Idlib situation remains misteriously frozen although every one knows that the Syrian army with just a little help could have easily settled the matter a long long time ago. And there’s nothing the Turks could have done to prevent it unless they were willing to directly confront Russia, which they clearly are not. Next thing you know Erdogan starts his psychedelic move on Libya with virtually zero reaction from the Russians to speak of. Now maybe Erdogan is really that stupid and he truly dreams of his Ottoman empire, but then again I’ve never seen an idiot anywhere on the planet that can hold to power for over twenty years. To accomplish such feat always requires extreme cunning.

So what is really going on one might ask? De facto I notice that Idlib and now Benghazi have become terrorist parks of sort, where probably around half of the world jihadists are concentrated under Turkish supervision. Basically a huge chunk of world terrorism is geographically isolated, and could easily be disposed of by any decent national army when the time is ripe. In Syria Turkish presence conveniently provides a buffer between Russian and US forces to avoid as much as possible any unwanted direct confrontation. Clearly Putin prefers to wait out the eventual voluntary withdrawal of the US out of economic exhaustion, rather than outright confrontation. Imagine if the Russians would bomb out every US presence in the region (which I believe they technically could with all the new weaponry now largely deployable) but then what?.Imagine the potential chaos they would then inherit. Turkish presence also negates any credible Idea of carving out a Kurdish state from Syrian territory or any likewise US scheme. In short Turkey is to a large extent actually shouldering the cost of waiting out the US retreat.

Likewise the Benghazi adventure, at close inspection, seem to mostly benefit Russia at Turkish and, to a sizable extent, French cost. Let me explain my reasoning. North stream 2 Should have been completed for some time now, yet the Germans are still stalling. Sure there are US sanctions hanging in the balance, But how effective can these be in a COVID induced economic depression when compared to the huge leverage the pipeline would give Germany over the rest of Europe and France in particular? There’s also this other pipeline project from Israel to Europe through Greece which de facto would compensate for the northern route, and on which it seems France has put high hopes. Could France and Germany have struck some deal to reassure the former and diversify Europe’s energy supplies? What ever the answer to this one, clearly the Israeli southern supplie is a potential direct competitor to NS2. Now I’m not saying that Russia wants to sabotage per se that project (actually I dont believe this in the slightest), but still they stroke a firm deal with the Germans and invested accordingly hard earned capital into this venture while they remain under the most stringent sanction regime. Every day that passes is money flowing down the drain. From the Russian perspective this must rightfully be unacceptable. Then out of the blue, here comes Erdogan stepping with both feet into Libya, redrawing in one stroke maritime borders cutting right through the southern pipeline route, instantly annihilating the entire project! A part from the sheer folly of engaging two war fronts while his economy is in shamble (assuming he’s serious about them), does he really think he can pull off his plan against the interests of Greece, France, Egypt, Israel and god knows who else? To me it just seem too preposterous. I also note that after an initial outrage, most of the countries affected seem to have much cooled down, except for France which remains quite vociferous. Anyway, the point of all this diatribe is that now the pressure on Europe to complete NS2 has suddenly greatly increased again, playing directly into Russia’s hand and to no one else’s apparent benefit, lest of all Turkey and France.

I’d also like to draw attention to what Putin recently said about Erdogan at the last Valdai gathering (I think it is called). He basically said the Turkish president was a reliable and reasonable partner with which one could always find workable solutions, and I dont think he said it just to be polite. Now how could he possibly say that with a strait face if Erdogan was truly animated by some fantastical Ottoman delusion.

With this latest events in the Caucasus, I’m now ever more convinced the guy is Putin’s bitch so to speak, and all that he’s been doing since the downing of Russia’s fighter Jet in Syria has been down-payments on his debt. Again a part from some token PR gains with his constituency, all the benefits went to Russia at his expenses.
Marlene on November 13, 2020 · at 2:15 pm EST/EDT

@Saker — Dear Sir, first off I agree with the other comments!– What would we do without your God-honest commitment and gift of forthright, unbiased analyses and understanding?! Secondly — perhaps a very ignorant question, but as you said, Russia has now secured the Caucasus — now, I want to know, what comprises the Caucasus?– does it border both Armenia and Azerbaijan? Chechnya, where Ramzan Kadyrov is — falls within the Caucuses right? So does breakaway Georgia and Ossetia and Abkhazia. Its just that I haven’t been able to find a full map of the whole Caucasus region in English, I would greatly appreciate if you’d kindly provide a link to one, as it will bring your map above into perfect context. Thank you.
Swordfish on November 13, 2020 · at 9:47 pm EST/EDT

Russia should focus on promoting its image in the Armenian society with its intel services. Hard power should be coupled with soft power.

Soft power isn’t going to be enough. If they can do it, Armenia will probably have a pro-Russian leader again in the near future.
Algerien pur on November 16, 2020 · at 8:55 am EST/EDT

I share the views of the saker a lot, but unfortunately,

When it comes to turkey and erdogan, the saker loses all objectivity.

How to claim that Turkey has won nothing, and dare to say that it loses everywhere? It even enters the repertoire of pure propaganda.

In syria, all the objectives of the various operations of the companies by the turkish army achieved their objectives.
Get rid of the Afrin Kurds, control a 30km strip along the borders, meter under the control of the Syrian opposition the region of idlib, acceptance of Turkey as an interlocutor and sole sponsor of the Syrian opposition in the format of astana.

In Libya, in a few months of intervention, the total halt of aggression by hafter militias, and the subsequent rout of hafter militias, the imposition of a political solution, with Russian consent.

Now let’s come back to Turkish unconditional aid to Azerbaijan. If this is not a total success, then what is the icing on the cake, the opening of the second corridor, which allows with the requirement to l armenia opens access to the western Azerbaijani region with turkey, and it is stipulated in the agreement that the saker has censored, allows a historic land link from turkey to all of azerbaijan. if it is not a historic victory, what a victory for you.

In conclusion, everything that erdogan the “psychopath” undertook was successful, and to top it off, with the blessing of poutine the great strategist. and you notice, i don’t put quotes for great strategist, to mean that it is serious as a qualifier for poutine.

Unfortunately, many analysts do not want to admit that Erdogan is too; and he is neither a psychopath nor a megalomaniac.

I think that this refusal of this reality is due to your refusal to allow the Muslim world to have the place it deserves in the free world which is emerging, for the great interest of the Zionists. that poutine and erdogan are working for its realization .you want the Muslim world to remain scattered and weak, for poutine to refuse this sectarian and racist approach.
Makarios on November 27, 2020 · at 2:23 am EST/EDT

“Russia is the only true winner of this war.”

Respectfully disagreed.

The result was AWFUL for Russia herself.

1)Russians could have toppled the treasonous pro-Western Pashinyan administration by recognizing Artsakh, empowering and rendering them INDEPENDENT from Armenia, thus driving a wedge between Artsakh and Armenia proper, which would have weakened Pashinyan and emboldened patriotic and pragmatic Armenians everywhere. Instead, the Russians chose to accommodate Pashinyan’s stay in power, and by the same token destroy the trust of their likely staunch Armenian allies in Artsakh.

2)The Turks are now buying their gas directly from Azerbaijan instead of buying it from Russia, even though the Turks had signed long-term gas sales contracts with the Russians, I believe? Russia had built a gas pipeline to Turkey at great expense to herself. BIG MONETARY LOSS to Russia right there. This ought to be of paramount concern for the pragmatic Russians who are focused more on profit margins than any religious, strategic or or even ethical issues: the Russians themselves had documented the atrocities committed against Armenians by Azeri civilians in the pogroms of Sumgait and Baku. Putin and Aliyev are best friends indeed.

3) De facto, if not de jure, the current Russian administration has enabled the Turks to transport and likely settle thousands of ISIS Jihadis in Artsakh. In other words, a colony of Islamist terrorists in the Caucuses. This is not in Russia’s national interest. There likely will be nefarious consequences for Russia’s security in the near future.

4) Russians will not make much money through additional arms sales to Azerbaijan either. The Azeris are now making the bulk of their sophisticated arms purchases from Israel, Turkey, South Africa(?), Ukraine, and even the perfidious French I believe. The Azeris already bought all the Russian T-90 tanks they needed. They could even sell some back to Russia when the ISIS issue hits the fan in Chechnya and Dagestan soon enough. I’m really not sure the Russian population will enjoy watching the Jihadis beheading Russians on video as much as they enjoyed dismissing the Azeris’ cutting Armenians’ ears and heads off on their computer screens. Unfortunately, likely soon coming to a theater much closer to home.

In conclusion,

It was not in Russia’s best interests to openly display for the world to see that Russia’s ruling classes and the Russian government can, and do, wantonly trample Russian *national* interests underfoot, placing them above what personal gains they derive from their special “friendships” with bloodthirsty tyrants like Aliyev and Erdogan.

After all, who needs enemies when you can have friends like the Russians? Serbia? Ethnic Russians of Ukraine? The Syrians and the Iranians whom the Russians allow the Israelis to bomb and kill with impunity?

As for the Armenians, they continue to faintly exist only as the damning consciousness of man’s inhumanity to man.