I am probably going to regret doing this, but I will do it anyway (sigh): I will post maps. In fact, I am going to do this three times!
First, a video of the Ukrainian advances since their counter-attack: (no sound)
Second, here is a map to give you a closer look:
And finally a Google map of the area with the actual distance between Balakleia and Kupiansk indicated:
So what I am trying to show here?
Two things:
- This is, by far, the most successful Ukrainian attack since the SMO began
- This entire battle is limited to a short and very narrow segment of the line of contact.
The Ukrainian plan is very simple: show NATO the best they can do and it appears that the best they can do is to conduct a tactical attack (not an operational level one!) at an immense costs in human lives.
Hardly a reason to celebrate (for the Ukronazis) or to freak out (for Russians).
The fact that a “super-dooper US military commander and genius strategist” like Blinken has traveled to Kiev is no coincidence and it is rather evident the true reason why this entire show has been executed is pretty obvious: Blinken is desperate to make President Brandon look good/better/less clueless (“Presidential” in US parlance) before the upcoming elections. Blinken in Kiev is not unlike BoJo in Kiev: just a brain-dead ignoramus demanding “total war” against the Russians at, literally, any cost (to the Ukrainians, of course, and they are both irrelevant and expandable for Uncle Shmuel).
I can also clearly see that US/NATO PSYOPs are out in full force again (and I am sure that they will instantly pounce on the comments section below) trying to make it look as if the Ukronazis were about to take the Kremlin. Not only are Western PYSOPs feeding their usual nonsense to the folks in the West, they are also very active in the many Russian Telegram channels.
And the fact that the Russian MoD had nothing to say about it this for already 48 hours only adds to the sense of FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) created by this massive PSYOPs effort (more about that below). And, alas, yes, Russian information operations still suck and are Kindergarten level when compared to the multi-billion dollars PSYOP industry available to the Western ruling class (aka Neocons).
So, setting aside all hysterics and silly rumors, what do we know so far?
So far, the Nazis have made their initial push, and they have already brought in reinforcements. But, at least so far, they have failed to further develop this tactical attack into an operational offensive. The entire area the Ukrainians have taken back is roughly the size of the frontal assault of a single division.
Please keep in mind that the Russians cannot (well, will not, since that would violate basic Russian tactical/operational norms) commit their operational reserves until they are quite convinced that 1) the Ukronazis are fully committed to specific (one or more) axes of attack 2) that the Ukrainian reserves are fully committed and 3) that no other major (relatively speaking) attack is feasible elsewhere along the line of contact.
In theory, if successful, this Ukrainian attack could threaten Russian forces in all sorts of ways, but I personally don’t believe that this will happen as the Russians are, according to numerous reports, concentrating very large forces to contain the Ukrainian attack. Furthermore, the Ukrainian advances *already* has come at a *huge* cost in personnel (again!).
Also, please consider this: the further East the Ukronazi forces go, the less artillery they will have to support them: shorter range artillery systems (like small-medium caliber mortars) will either be too far, or will have to be moved forward (at great risk) and only long range artillery (MLRS & HIMARS) will be able to support the Ukrainian attack. And, of course, it is much easier to resupply the Ukrainian attack force while it is closer to the Ukrainian rear than when the resupplies will have to be brought through a very dangerous and highly contested area!
For the Russian side, it is exactly the opposite: the closer the Ukrainian forces moves East, the more firepower the Russians can unleash against them and the shorter and safer distance Russian logistics have to deal with.
The same goes for airpower. The further East the Ukrainians move, the safer it will be for Russian CAS to strike them from a (relatively) safe(r) position as most of the Ukrainian air defenses are further back and the only type of air defenses the Ukrainians have en masse for this attacks mostly MANPADs (Igla, Strela, Stinger, Osa, etc.) which are only effective against some types of aircraft (Mi-24s and Mi-8s) and almost useless against others (Mi-28, Ka-52, Su-25).
I spend a few hours reading the reports of the (very few) Russian military correspondents I trust (including Evgenii Poddubnyi, imho the best one of them) and it is pretty clear that nothing is clear. There are major clashes (not even a real “battle” in the military sense of the word!) being fought with, on one side, Ukrainian forces and (lots) of foreign mercenaries and, on the other side, Russian Guards (Rosgvardiia) and airborne units. Which means that the Ukrainian forces are heavier, at least on the ground, as neither the Guards nor the airborne forces have heavy armor. However, this is partially already compensated by the Russian artillery and CAS. But the Russian military itself has not yet engaged her mechanized and armored forces, this will happen either today or in the next couple of days at which point things will get even worse for the advancing Ukrainian forces.
So right now, we simply need to wait for what will happen next. This one is simply too early to call.
Still, I know what most readers are thinking: did the Russians screw up pretty badly or is this some kind of fancy Russian plan to pull the Ukrainians into attacking and then destroying them?
Truth be told, I don’t know.
What I do know is that there are A LOT of very unhappy voices in the Russian blogosphere and this is hardly surprising. First, the Western PSYOPs are making the most of this, and part of the Russian audience is freaking out. Second, most Russians are now too young to remember WWII and thus there are also plenty of Russians who simply do not understand that a retreat does not necessarily mean “disaster” (though it CAN mean that too, depends on the circumstances) and that this is simply what warfare is all about.
Simply put, any new type of warfare, like the SMO, always implies two things:
- Mistakes are inevitably made and need to be corrected and
- Some aspects of the operational planning need to be adjusted or even changed completely
==>>These things are NORMAL, they “come with the territory” if you wish.<<==
In Russian there is an expression “this is unpleasant/upsetting but not dangerous” (это обидно, но не опасно). I think that this fully applies here: nobody in Russia is particularly happy about what is taking place (except maybe the Russian General Staff IF we assume that this is all a big trap the Russians deliberately created, and there is some evidence for that as the force concentrations prior to this attack were reported by numerous observers, so it was hardly a secret that the Ukronazis were about to attack somewhere in the northeast). But we need to really keep aware of the proportions of what is happening: after six months of warfare, this is the first and only Ukrainian attack which shows some real capabilities, and it is all limited to a rather narrow corridor within the Russian tactical defenses only! As I said, these are strong tactical attacks and clashes, but the size of them does not even amount to a real “battle” or “offensive”, at least not in the military sense of the word.
Now if the Russians do not take back the initiative over this week-end, then things might seriously become alarming and we could speak of the first operational success of the Ukronazis and their Neocon masters.
Could that happen? Yes, absolutely.
Should we assume it will? No, this is too soon to come to such a conclusion.
So wait and see is the best I can suggest at this point in time.
One more thing: it appears that the Ukronazis have, yet again, attempted an amphibious landing near the ZNPP and, yet again, their fast attack craft were destroyed before they could reach land. Yet another attempt to get a desperately needed “peremoga” which ended up in disaster.
Remember “Ze”‘s “million soldiers army”? Of course, this statement was laughable. But there is more to this, I think. I personally see that as a type of Freudian slip in which “Ze” shows his confidence that he still has immense reserves of cannon fodder to send in all sorts of attacks à la “Charge of the Light Brigade“.
“Ze” knows: his future depends on President Brandon and right now what President Brandon needs the most is some kind of “peremoga” of his own to show the people of the USA that the US military – and, therefore, is proxy forces – is still the “‘The Finest Fighting Force in the History of the World” (as per Obama’s dixit – and who could possibly doubt that military expert?!), which it never was, but nevermind that since US Americans don’t study history, even less so the history of warfare (or, when they do, they “study” a Hollywood version thereof).
There is a sad, pathetic, irony in the fact that ignorant brainwashed US Americans are hanging Ukie flags in support of the Nazi regime in Kiev while their own rulers are basically committing genocide against the peoples of the Ukraine!
That is about as ignorant and stupid as ignorant and stupid gets…
Finally, please also check out Andrei Martyanov‘s and Bernhard‘s views on this on their respective websites:
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/09/as-was-expected.html
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/the-izium-counteroffensive-success-disaster.html
***
And since it is Friday, I will leave you with some music which I hope that you will enjoy. In this case, I want to share with you several versions of Chick Corea’s composition “Spain” (one of my absolute favorite ones to interpret and improvise over). Enjoy!
First, Chick Corea himself with Hiromi Uehara:
Next, the Spain as interpreted by the group “Nation of Five”:
Next, John McLaughlin with Paco de Lucia:
and, lastly, the vocal version of Al Jarreau:
this morning NPR had an interview with Milley and for once he sounded realistic… he did not claim to any bombast that Ukies are winning this one or the Russians are losing
His main point was offense is harder than defence and for the first time the Ukies are taking an offensive posture and probably paying for it.
here’s the link and a full extract
https://www.npr.org/2022/09/09/1121951165/the-top-u-s-military-officer-discusses-ukraines-renewed-efforts-to-push-russia-o
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
The map of Ukraine shows it’s divided by the Dnieper River. It cuts the country roughly in half, and Russia’s invasion has mostly come to its east. But here and there, Russian forces have crossed to the west bank, and that includes the place where they crossed to capture the city of Kherson. Now Ukraine has begun a counteroffensive, hoping to trap those Russian forces in a place where the water makes it hard to retreat. It’s a test of whether either of these large and well-armed forces can gain a real advantage. We discussed this with U.S. General Mark Milley. President Biden’s top military advisor was in Germany meeting with Ukraine’s other allies.
MARK MILLEY: The Russians did succeed in getting across the Dnieper River, so in the vicinity of Kherson.
INSKEEP: Right.
MILLEY: So it’s a small salient of Russian forces that are across the river. So this counteroffensive is designed to restore the river line, if you will.
INSKEEP: Do they have a real opportunity, General, to press those Russian forces back against the river and trap them there?
MILLEY: Well, there’s a series of bridges that are across the Dnieper River, and those bridges have been destroyed or partially destroyed. Now, the Russians continue to try to repair them on essentially a daily basis. So the short answer to your question is, yes, there’s a good possibility of that, but I wouldn’t say it’s a certainty. But the Ukrainians have massed significant amount of ground combat power. And we’ll see how this plays out in the coming days and weeks.
INSKEEP: I want to think this through. We should just describe for a layman, Russia has a bigger army, but if Ukraine can get more forces in a local area, they can have an advantage there. Some wounded soldiers from the Ukrainian side talking to The Washington Post, though, think they don’t have the advantage. They said they still had less artillery and technology than the Russians. Do you think that’s correct?
MILLEY: Well, as an overall statement, that’s true, in terms of a net assessment between the country of Russia and the country of Ukraine. But part of the skill of generalship in battle is to concentrate enough forces at the time and place of your choosing to achieve the desired effects. And that is what the Ukrainians are trying to do. So I think that it’s possible that in certain areas where those soldiers were that – you know, wars, you get different perspectives on combat. So if you’re talking to an individual soldier, especially one who was wounded, then the likelihood is they have a pretty grim outlook on the nature of that fight that they were in. As you go up to the brigades and the divisions and the corps and the armies, they may have a different view. My sense is that Ukraine has massed a good amount of combat power. How they use that will be the determining factor. Ukraine has fought extraordinarily well. Now, they’ve fought in the defense, and that’s an important distinction. They’re now fighting in the offense. Offensive combat, offensive maneuver is more complicated than the defense. And they’re making a very deliberate level of progress.
INSKEEP: Let me ask about that difference…
MILLEY: Yeah.
INSKEEP: …Because this war is the first one in decades that tests one relatively modern, well-equipped army against another relatively modern, well-equipped army. Is this war showing that in that situation, given the current weapons that are available, whoever is on the defensive is going to have the advantage, will be able to stop an offensive?
MILLEY: Well, historically, the defense has always been the stronger form of war – what you saw in the beginning of the war, beginning in 24 February, when the Russians attempted to conduct offensive operations with combined arms maneuver, and they were unsuccessful. They were not able to integrate their fighters and maneuver. They weren’t able to achieve air superiority and a wide variety of other factors. Now the Ukrainians are on the offensive, and like I said, it remains to be seen what’s going to happen, you know, in the next few weeks as – in terms of their ability to execute offensive combined arms maneuver. It’s a very, very difficult task that the Ukrainians are undertaking.
INSKEEP: So far as you can tell, have economic sanctions yet had any meaningful effect on Russia’s ability to sustain their side of the war?
MILLEY: Well, we said at the beginning – and this is going back, you know, six, seven months – as I recall, I believe that the leaders of Western Europe and the United States, those that – in the State Department and Department of Commerce and Treasury, etc., the ones that do things like sanctions – they said it would take a long time for those to take effect. And I’m doing this from memory, but I think they said something like six to nine months. So we’re really at about the point in time when in the next few months, we should start seeing significant impacts of these sanctions as it relates to their military.
So as you know, there’s two things. One is sanctions, and the other is export controls. Export controls could take up to almost a year to show significant effects on their military. And export controls involve things like semiconductors. So if the Russians can’t get semiconductors, then their ability to produce precision munitions will be greatly diminished, which will have significant effect. And right now, for example, the Russian expenditure rates of conventional munitions – artillery – have been very high, and that’s why you saw recent reports of the Russians going to North Korea to purchase munitions from North Korea.
INSKEEP: They’re basically buying old Soviet things that they sold to the North Koreans long, long ago, right? They’re repurchasing things.
MILLEY: That’s exactly right. And they’re having to buy it off of North Korea ’cause their industrial base is not producing them. So we’ll see.
INSKEEP: Is the goal here simply not to lose until Russia runs out of steam?
MILLEY: With respect to Ukraine, the end state has been defined very clearly, which is a free and independent sovereign Ukraine at the end of the day. Now, what that means, what that looks like, exactly what the border looks like, and so on and so forth – those are for others to decide, not me. But the intent there is that Ukraine remains free, sovereign and independent and free of Russian occupation. So we’ll see. The United States is in this for as long as it takes to ensure that that end state is achieved.
INSKEEP: General Milley, it’s always a pleasure talking with you. Thank you so much.
MILLEY: OK, Steve, thanks.
Okay, I get your intention here, but I would recommend that in the future you abstain from quoting NPR or Milley. Yes, there are some elements of reality in what he says, but much more utter bullshit.
Besides, why would you ever want to know the opinion of a general from a military which never won a real war for his opinion about how the military with the most experience on the planet fights? This idiot even repeats the “They weren’t able to achieve air superiority” canard.
So, okay, I will leave it, but let’s make this the last time, ok?
Thanks
Very rarely do I give any credence to this outlet if it’s international news. It’s total Zio media and the host of the above conversation is their biggest cheerleader (along with a pile of Zio journalists who pass opinions as news)
Many people in the USA take it as “the trusted news source — according to KUT — it’s mantra now) so reading what they’re hearing and believing should not be ignored
Thanks Andrei for posting it
You are quite welcome!
His biggest accomplishment will be the new Army field guide to gender pronouns.
I don’t want to hear more what Miiley or any stupid american has to say about the war. Are there so much people out there to even want to listen to the BS of the west.? Don’t fall for it!.Are we stupid or not? To hell with Milley and Zelensky; with many other BS;ers.
Why can’t he quote Milley? Maybe it’s you who is full of shit! Milley is massively biased towards Nato; you are massively biased towards Russia. You both suffer from the same disease. You know nothing more than any of us do.
Dear Saker,
What harm.does it do understanding the other sides opinion and rhetoric or even psych ops. I believe it’s interesting to hear that. Not because it’s swallowed fully but it shows where the Americans are and it’s good to know all sides, sun tzu – know yourself and know your enemy
A little dishonest, no?
You forget why many, if they can access it that is, read The Saker et. al. precisely because we are NOT getting the ‘other sides’ opinion.
You’re forgetting the heavy handed American directed censorship that eliminates any point of view
that is not the US State Dep’t or OFFICIAL mainstream view where the American military spokesmen, like Milley, have been touring the western ‘media’ and ‘staying on message’ regularly for the last 6 months.
Personally I find it disturbing that so called American free speech types demand that people who are critical of X have the obligation ‘under the rules of free speech’? to provide ‘equal time’? (at their expense) to include positions, including partisan issues, they are generally opposed to and probably prefer not to legitimize.
Let’s be honest — this is a tactic to simply imply that someone (who wont read YOUR propaganda) is narrow minded or bias and therefore his ‘opinion’ is flawed and can be ignored or censored as uninformed or even Fake!!
Besides do you really want The Saker to run afoul of MSNBC ;-)
MSNBC host blasts coverage of ‘both sides’
The Holocaust and climate change are issues that do not have ‘another side’ worth reporting, a prominent journalist says
https://www.rt.com/news/562493-hasan-both-sides-reporting/
I found General Miller’s conversation pretty candid and restrained. Reading between the lines, he thinks the Ukrainian counter offensive has a low probably of success. That is quite an admission. We’ll wait and see.
According to what Kadyrov announced, this is a Big trap for the Ukrops.
Their very own cauldron.
It doesn’t have to be cauldron. The goal is to infuriate and make AFU so bloodlust to pull their forces out of big towns into open. Naturally, to do that you mus give them something irresistible. Like easy “peremoga”. To feint weakness, even stupidity. Destroying just enough of their units to pull more and more reserves, but not to retreat back in cities.I would lure them inch by inch to the Russian border, before closing the cauldron. But that’s just me.
The beauty is in the fact that if anyone among AFU try to explain this to them, he will probably be shot on the spot as defeatist and traitor.
Well, the Chechens, besides being superb fighters, are also somewhat “prematurely enthusiastic” at times.
Just saying…
““prematurely enthusiastic”” LOL. What I particularly love about the Chechens is their enthusiastic and cheerful, boisterous even, attitude when in armed combat. It’s as if that is what they are born for.
“It’s as if that is what they are born for”
But it is seemingly what they were born for.
Have you ever heard of a Chechen who does a useful peaceful profession? I am curious. I have never met any Chechens. Do they have doctors / engineers / architects / artists / poets …?
I have read this book by Leo Tolstoy. That is the sum of my knowledge about Chechens.
“Hadji Murád”
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/135060.Hadji_Mur_d
Well, in Lissichansk they beat the shit out of the Ukrops. I really like them being “prematurely enthusiastic”…….
Изгледа да су много велики улози стављени на сто. Тешко је сада јасно видети шта се дешава.
machine translation: It looks like a lot of stakes are being put on the table. It’s hard to see clearly what’s going on now.
Silly comment by banned commentator removed by me, Andrei
The original Ukrainian equipment is destroyed but in this 6 months they received a lot of NATO weapons just look at this offensive i watched a video where a column and you had every single type of vehicle by country Soviet,UK,Us,Germany,Poland.
To those who are complaining about the pace of Russia’s SMO, I would suggest that Russia makes it’s decisions regarding the SMO based not only on military considerations but also on geopolitical considerations. Unfortunately, these two considerations do not always lead to the same decision.
Well, if the Russians used their soldiers as Ukie-style cannon fodder this would quickly turn into a military AND geopolitical disaster (not to mention an internal political disaster for the Kremlin).
So no, no matter how hysterical and triumphalist western PSYOPs are, the Russians will absolutely NOT use their soldiers in idiotic mass attacks or to hold ground at any cost.
Frankly, Russian generals don’t give a damn about Telegram, even less so any western media :-)
I, of course, agree with you that the Russians should not and will not use their soldiers in idiotic mass attacks or to hold ground at any cost.
In yesterday’s video that you posted, Andrei Martyanov is dismissive of the latest Ukraine “counteroffensive” and is quite sure that it will amount to nothing.
Andrei is a little too dismissive IMO. I prefer someone who is impartial, even if I’m not.
History Legends on YouTube is pretty informative.
History Legends is pro-Ukrainian. He does usually report the facts. But he tries to put a pro-Ukrainian spin on them whenever it can be done.
I dont care if he leans that way as long as he states facts. I actually think he is Russia leaning but tries to hide it.
Since the facts favor Russia is why it sometimes appears like he is pro-Russian. But whenever he can find anything that supports Ukraine he jumps right on it. I’ve also seen him on other sites talking. And figured out from the things he said on those sites that he favors Ukraine. Or at least lets just say he doesn’t like Russia.
I checked that channel and it´s Wikipedia-level knowledge he bestows on you, why you´d like the usual mix of spin and fabrication salted with some massaged facts I do not know*? My favorite when I checked was “Why is the Russian warcry Ura?”, funny stuff to be sure but don´t put too much credence on Youtubers(Those that *primarily* are YouTubers) when you´re looking for facts.
You´ll very rarely see competent people get popular on YouTube while dilettantes with a dramatic vein get the NPC Consoomer stamp of approval. War porn in modern times is consoomed mostly by people that need new stimuli every minute and so the “content creators” adapt and excrete emotional and dramatic Wikipedia “facts” that they know will get “play time”, just something to keep in mind.
Regarding Russian Telegram, it’s obvious that after months of pushing their psyops on Twitter developing an echo chamber of there downplaying mass Ukie casualties and failures up to the Kherson offensive, the NAFO groups are crawling all over Telegram. Some of them are almost certainly run by the psyops contractors Moscow-based Aussie journalist John Helmer wrote about that were hired for Ukraine info operations by CENTCOM in Tampa. Massive amounts of FUD, and likely even photoshopped or clumsy video fakes (like the A10s flying over a Ukie soldier that sound like an effect from the video wargame Arma 5). It’s a good thing the Russian soldiers falling back to prepared defenses along the Oskil River from which they can call in massive arty and air strikes on the Ukies don’t carry phones in battle.
http://johnhelmer.net/killing-is-cheaper-the-us-army-special-operations-command-weaponizes-twitter-facebook-instagram-whatsapp-telegram/
The real hurrah patriots who are asking why Putin hasn’t nuked Kyiv or Lviv yet are being massively supplemented by infiltrators from the past weeks and even months, now trying to spread panic about spectacular Ukie advances. Even sadly Ukrainian oppositionists who’ve suffered in exile from this regime like Anatoly Shariy seem to have been arm twisted or turned via threats to their relatives left in Ukraine into exaggerating Ukie successes. Don’t fall for it!
Waving a flag in one part of a city or in front of its city sign is not the same as having fully secured it. There are reportedly still Russian special forces holding out in the east end of Balaklaya calling in artillery and air strikes on the Ukies. Video is appearing of scads and Ukies cursing as thermite rains down on their dispersed vehicles setting their ammo and fuel trucks on fire. A hint of what’s to come once the Russian Air Force takes the gloves off and starts lobbing fuel air bombs, particularly where there are large concentrations of tacticool bro NATO country mercs. They need to get it through their heads that the Ukrainian Air Force hardly exists to protect their skies and a large number of the locals that despise their ‘liberators’ know which basements they’ll try to sleep in to avoid Russian shelling and hopefully Tornados or parachuted FAB500s hit right on target.
Well said. There are more issues t play than a short-lived tactical advance. The pThe problem is that we in the west want quick notification and are incapable of looking at the big picture. Everything should be viewed in the ‘long run’ geopolitics—less emotional heartache.
“Russia is risking the collapse of its regime before Nato fully supported Kiev falls”
It’s more like the West risks succumbing to its own problems, financial and elsewhere. This whole thing has a very, very strong smell of desperation by the West. Blinken’s trip, the warning of a nuclear war by an ukrainian general, the doomed Ukrainian assaults on the ZNPP, the whole energy mess in Europe, etc, etc, etc, are all happening at the same time. The West knows it has very limited time before its whole house of cards come down. For them, it’s now or never. Soon, it will be very clear that is never. The West is all talk, and no meaningful action.
Meanwhile, Russia, China, India and representatives of other 60+ countries have just met in Vladivostok to discuss the future, based, of course, in Eurasia. You can bet everything you got that the West is scared s*tless on this…
PATRICK LAWRENCE: Hearts Versus Minds
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/09/07/patrick-lawrence-hearts-versus-minds/
US tradition in a nutshell!
The Lede comment on US beliefs is rather shallow – Lawrence hits the target precisely!
Have the zionazis been studying the Battle of the Bulge? Attack with a major force through the weakest point in the front line and rapidly push through in a single line. Unlike the Germans the AFU has reserves but that will only increase the meat grinder once the Russians push back.
The Saker is correct – the AFU is playing a desperate game for their masters. Unless NATO is prepared to start WW3 there is nothing here that will lead to the collapse of the Russian front line across the Donbas. The AFU , as a concentrated force, is now completely exposed to Russian air and artillery – it is a one way trip for the cannon fodder.
Thank you so very much. I do understand the battlefield an psychological impact. Love the music.
Thanks for straight forward information. Syria had it’s share of setbacks and when you are running with smallish size forces it’s all about resilience.
There is a line in this old song that rings so true for me. ‘You don’t know which way to go’ which really speaks to my confusion over the current situation in North America. Anyway great cover with John Paul Jones from Led Zep playing with a whole cast of international players. When the levee breaks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LH0-WXUFY2k&ab_channel=PlayingForChange
Thank you!
I used to play hard rock (until I switched to Jazz and impro) and Jimmy Page was my model. I played lots of Led Zep music and I still love them. Your video is absolutely superb, thank you!!
WOW, just WOW!!! I am downloading the video in high-res and, all I am thinking, is “what a hugely talented bunch!!! I would give anything to play with these guys!!!!”
(while I have goosebumps all over me!)
There are even some fellow Floridians in the mix :-)
@EVERYBODY: make sure to watch this absolutely beautiful and deeply moving video!!!
Yes, Derek Trucks is from Jacksonville. He is nephew of former Allman Brothers drummer, Butch Trucks, and played with Allman Brothers himself. He is an excellent slide player. He also has played with Eric Clapton. There’s a great video of Clapton back in 2010 or so with Derek Trucks on slide playing “Tell the Truth” from Layla album.
thanks for the info!
Послушайте эту песню, Андрей!
Rosatom songs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ENrEDKTiHFc&list=PL9t5EAiUP_HfRgX_Ja5JsAJRF6Aim3u5f&index=4
Great find….awesome collection of musicians…left goose bumps on my arms….
Cheers M
I guessing the Floridians were Taduski/Trucks. I’ve been doing Uncle Greg in heavy rotation lately, an immense talent, seeing Dereck rip it up the slide, Uncle Duane be smiling down.
Syria is only a part of its former self. Much of its borders and land are occupied by hostile powers and U.S., Kurds, and Turks are stealing its oil and grain. You can’t say Syria won the war by a long shot, only that it has been partially salvaged. So if you are comparing what’s going on with Ukraine and Syria, and Russia doing a lot like Syria, then you can’t expect to ever win this current war.
The list of those saying Bashar must go is long. Most of them are gone, Bashar remains.
This is awesome. Saw it a few months ago. It’s actually moving.
Wow! Is right!
I got chills down my back about 30 seconds in and tears in my eyes as I write this.
Thank you, Franky
Thank you, Andrei/ The Saker
( I went up to Buffalo Creek today – saw a falcon!)
Blessings to All
L
Can’t remember how I stumbled upon it, it plays in a loop in my head lately. My favorite part the vocals by the lady in red with the wild face art, she’s got soul!
There a lots of other tunes at Playing for Change.
Sitting on a log by our now calm river and a big shadow passed overhead, this now middle aged, quite huge bald eagle had flown right over us not 30 feet over head.
See it fairly regularly. After our flood this spring it was a spectacular summer with greatly diminished bugs. My theory, the ice sat high on the banks well into June. Don’t think the bugs liked all the cold from that ice.
My thanks to all the great musicians out there who bring solace to us.
Sorry but it is next to impossible to understand the words. Is the song in English?
I always use cc but it’s not available for songs usually, and I did not see a libretto posted.
The pictures are nice though. And some of the istruments look interesting. Also engaging looking singers from everywhere. Sorry but it was just visual for me.
It’s song in a deep south US American accent.
Here is a link to the lyrics. In English
https://genius.com/Led-zeppelin-when-the-levee-breaks-lyrics
It is from an old song about flooding in the Mississippi delta region.
We suffered a flood here this spring. Very traumatic for lot’s of us. I stayed awake all night bailing out the basement as a check valve in the floor drain failed and water came up. It was a successful effort. Many locals chose to obey the evacuation orders and paid the price. No one died.
Followed my intuition and bought a sump pump about a month prior to flood, we had way too much snow sitting around.
This version, as the original, is very emotional. You really don’t need a translation to sense that these folks are suffering loss and confusion.
Thanks!
this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
One point in the article is something i had thought about,i would think its impossible to marshal thousands of troops and armour for an offensive without being noticed,Russian intelligence must have been on top of the situation,so its difficult to understand why they were not attacked?
Yep, the Russians could see the enemy building up, but couldn’t cheaply do anything about it. Within the first say 50-100km of the front lines the Russians just put like 1 shell per meter square and the enemy has to hide in holes to survive. Beyond that distance its too expensive to put out the equivalent of 1 shell per meter square. So the Ukies build up out of range of Russian mass artillery and then cover the 50-100km in a few hours at night to hit the weak areas of the Russian lines the next day. The only solution for this Special Military Operation is uav’s equipped with hellfire like missiles operating a thousand kilometers beyond the front lines day and night. But that is expensive. And putting enough manpower and armor into Ukraine would turn the battle into a normal military operation, which is unnecessary. The only benefit of this current Ukie offensive is that they won’t be able to repeat it again, too much losses in manpower and equipment.
A good dose of calm, so far the Russians have the upper hand and they fry the fish shortly before eating, that as number one and number two the ucronazis need a media success even if it was only in appearance.
In addition, it is about real life and not a television series in which the opinion of the fans is so important.
EASY : You attack them in place they duck into their entrenched hidey-holes and they become sewer rats that you have to extract the hard way, difficult, dangerous and laborious!
Let them come out and place themselves in full sunlight with vastly extended lines of supply and ….POOF!
Easy pickin’s!
I love these types of battlefield reenactments (sarc):
The Battle of the Bulge
Map / casualty figures:
https://www.normandy1944.info/home/maps/battle-of-the-bulge
Description:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Bulge
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” ~ Mark Twain
To @Rokossovsky and many others: if you really want to get most realistic and most interesting book of Ardennes (I don’t like the American term “Bulge”) i’ll recommend Christer Bergström’s Ardennes – Hitler’s Winter Offensive. Really myth destroyer explaining why not just Hitler but whole German military high command suggest Ardennes, not any place in Eastern Front, as chance where Germans to achieve something. (German commanders knew they had no chance against Red Army, Western Allied were much weaker in land warfare)
The book also helped readers to understand why offensive is much more difficult than defence. Berström explained why American military history has so long concentrate to glorify Bastogne instead of telling how poorly there January offensive worked – until Red Army helped Americans by wiping out whole German from during first day of Oder-Vistula offensive. Nor has American military history used Patton’s letter to his wife. The letter revealed how the news in Red Army success changed the spirit among American troops in Ardennes. Bergström underlined also how highly outnumbered Germans dogged fought Americans even after lots of German fire power was moved from Ardennes to Eastern Front even before Oder-Vistula Day 1.
The book may help to understand how complex especially offensive is in land warfare. During WW2 Germans have ranking list of divisions:
– capable for large scale offensive
– only for limited offensive
– only for defence task
– only for limited defence task
Obviously Ukrainian army has same kind of grim reality. Even having “army of million” they hardly have more than 20 000 – 30 000 for even limited offensive. After 1941 German army had just around 20-25 divisions for large scale offensive. This is the background to understand Stalingrad and Kursk. And Ukie offensive now 80 years later.
Matias,
Thanks for the reference!
However, my point was that the Ardennes offensive was a “joke” given the correlation of forces arrayed against Germany at the time, in terms of manpower, equipment & fuel, etc. … which is why it was so unexpected. Its primary purpose was political; an attempt to drive a psychological wedge in the Anglo-American alliance. And if you look at the media coverage of it, it did have a disproportionate effect on Allied moral before they began the clean-up operation.
And the media is doing the same thing today, coupled with Blinken’s trip to Kiev. The way people are reacting to this incursion on SM is playing into the West’s hands… and maybe even having an impact on Russian foreign relations?
——–
However, students of the Great Patriotic War, will remember that there were always huge sections of the German & Russian lines that went virtually unmanned, as there simply were not enough troops to cover the entire front. Here is a passage from a fairly superficial treatment, that drives the point home:
The Devil’s Virtuosos: German Generals at War, 1940-5
“The German front in Russia, he argued, was over two thousand miles long. In length it demanded an overstretching of the available forces that was far beyond the safety margin. That was not all. The very configuration of the front was an open invitation to disaster. South from Voronezh it hung in two large and unseemly bulges, one directed east on Stalingrad, the other south-east towards the Caucasus Mountains. And all the force in these bulges resided in the tips. Along the flanks of the northern bulge stood the make-believe armies of Germany’s allies, strong in men but weak in everything else – armour, anti-tank weapons, artillery and, above all, morale – needed to face a Russian onslaught. Between the two bulges, covering a
space three hundred miles wide and ideally suited for Soviet cavalry, there was only a solitary division, 16th Motorised at Elista.”
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/1978415.The_Devil_s_Virtuosos
When that passage is considered from a 50,000 ft view, it stunningly reveals the space and manpower required by both sides in covering that front. There was minimal resistance encountered on the “drive to Kalach” which took no more than 3 days (Nov 19-22, 1942) to close the ring around Stalingrad. That is not to make light of the Uranus Operation, it was brilliantly conceived, masked and timed… to make the most of the thin and faulty German troop dispositions. (Contrast that with the Battle of Kursk, where both sides slugged it out, knowing exactly where the other side’s troops were deployed.)
I wish folks would stop over reacting to this, and let Shoigu clean it up. Until the SMO is over, this kind of thing will always be a possibility, given what I outlined above.
I think I have an insight on why so many are unhappy. I know I am – wanted to see Ukraine’s illegitimate gov’t crushed. But it’s not the battlefield results so much that make me unhappy. I can live with ebbs and flows of battle. Rather, what upset me is the huge disconnect between many of the sources I follow (manifestly not The Saker – if anything, the only thing I can say bothers me is long periods of silence), such as the clowns on other sites and others who have long been insisting that the Ukies are out of fuel, out of soldiers, and about to fold and go into complete collapse. That can’t be “almost there” for several months, and then they mount an offensive like this. So the slow progress of the Russian forces should probably be understood to be because of stiff resistance, not simply gingerly caution to avoid any casualties. Whehter lightly defended by under-trained troops or not, an offensive like this doesn’t happen without committed soldiers to carry it out. They may all be killed or captured in coming days/weeks, but the sharp split between reality and cheerleading is what gets under my skin. Because I feel like I’ve been had. And then I doubt what else may be untrue.
Thank God the Russian General Staff cares more about Russian (and Ukrainian!) lives than about your skin…
They very much can be almost there for months. In fact it’s likely that Ukraine will be / has been there for months. It is warfare. The only way to “speed it up” requires great cost in manpower for Russia or total war, US style leveling Ukraine. It is quite clear that the former is not a choice Russia is willing to make at this stage and just as clear that Russia is unwilling to take the latter path on the basis of what can only be a moral and ethical decision. I for one, have to commend Russian political leadership for its unwillingness to level Ukraine because it shows a resoluteness of purpose to remain human and humane in the horrors of war.
I’m sure the main reason the Russians are not in a hurry is that they are waiting for a huge assist from General Winter. That’s a whole ‘nother division and if you think Europe matters, which I no longer do, then that would be the more important division. But still, Europe matters at a medium level – and of course General Winter will also rage in the Ukraine.
One should never fight anyone who has time on their side. Japan went into WW2 fully aware that they could not win a long war, so they hoped for a short war with a few quick “knock-out” blows which would incite defeatism in their enemies. Germany was in a more favorable but still a similar situation. Crucially, the American leaders understood this. So Washington planned for, and waged, a long war.
“Historical Triumphalism” is a concept that was exceedingly popular among leftists; it was one of many countless stupidities which led to their demise. I have learned to steel myself against every version of it, and I recommend others do the same.
The folks I feel most sorrow for are the villagers who will be denounced as collaborators, taken out and executed.
Screw what the trolls, the Americans and Europeans have to say. Nobody on this planet can guarantee safety along a 1200km border against even a 2nd rate army supplied with tens of billions in WMD’s.
The moral of the story is, Do Not take over a village or town where you can’t guarantee the safety of the civilians, who will have to answer to the fu**ing Bosch when you make a tactical retreat.
The Russians have already evacuated civilians both Shevchenkovo and Kupianks (and Balakliia a while ago already as it was always exposed on 3 sides).
But yes, I agree with you, these civilians MUST be protected.
The LAST thing we need is another “Bucha”…
I had not read that the civilians were evacuated. If that’s correct, then that is perfect proof that the Russians were cooking up a cauldron.
Regrettably true.
Revenge must be unleashed on the organisers and perpetators of any murderous attacks on Russian identifying civilians who rightly exercise their trust in liberation from the Ziolensky-Nato thugs.
Russia’s ambassador to the U.N. says there hasn’t been a “breakthrough.”
https://english.pravda.ru/news/hotspots/153929-russia_ukraine_offensive/
That is because Russian military terminology is much MUCH more accurate (and specific) than the English one and concepts such as битва, наступление, контрудар, контратака, операция, прорыв, etc. don’t translate well in English and when they are used (battle, offensive, counterattack, counterattack, operation, breakthrough) they are used much more vaguely.
Finally, though Nebenzya is a civilian, he is educated and intelligent enough to understand what these concepts mean in Russian.
So his statement is quite correct, at least when this context is understood.
The Ukrainians are in the centre of Kupiansk. If that is not a breakthrough in the 48-72 hours that it took then I don’t know what is. There is a real danger the Izium salient is cutoff here and the Russians trapped to a fair degree. Is it a trap? We will have to wait to see how this plays out in the next week or so, but it is not looking great to be perfectly honest.
One thing I am curious about is how Ukraine got their troops into position, was it a slow buildup over time or a relatively rapid shift close to the attack date?
I do not believe you can prevent a slow buildup as you can take measures to conceal it but this also limits your operations. But if Ukraine as able to move around their lines unobstructed by Russian air and artillery attacks that is a problem the RuA will have to address. I thought that Russia was forcing Ukraine to move around in order to hit them when they are most vulnerable.
Okay, first things first. This is a big attack by what is called in Russian a few “subunits”, divisional level and below. It seems that the core of this force were 3 BTG and (even smaller) assorted diversionary/assault units.
Now look at a topographical map of the area and ask yourself how hard it would be to hide 3 BTGs in that kind of terrain.
Next, ask yourself, if you were a Russian general, would you have committed forces before knowing for sure what the enemy is doing.
If the above does not help you, I am out of both arguments and patience. Please try again to read and understand what I explained in my analysis.
Best to catch all the mice at once, the Piper plays Wagner with Chechen choir providing harmonies. Gonna be kinda squeaky with all those Ukie mice stuck out in the open…..early reports suggest the reinforcement armour was destroyed before it got anywhere near the front.
I found it interesting, a Chechen fighting there mentions how they have been watching the build up for some time….. that, if true, even partially, would suggest that area was deliberately left lightly defended giving the Ukrainians a big fat target. Looking at how fast Russia is moving up the big guns….they were already prepositioned.
Military Summary feels this is the last big battle before some form of negotiation takes place…..I suppose, we’ll have to wait a few days to find out.
Cheers M
How feasible is my speculation about things?
I don’t pretend to have much knowledge- I just am interested.
They know the Ukrainians care about optics more than any other issue. It seems that their behavior can be predicted by treating the Ukrainian military more as an instagram e-thot than a strategic and tactical fighting force. Should the Russian generals start consulting with Neekolull or some V-Tuber to discern Ukrainian plans?
Since the Saker noted that they are only attacking on a small portion of the front, and are more and more sitting ducks the further they advance, wouldn’t it seem like a Cannae tactic would work very well in crushing the offensive?
With such a widespread, in-depth defense, retreating, even haphazardly, would enable the Russian troops to easily envelop Ukrainians. While it also is an obvious move, the Banderites among the Ukrainian civilian government would demand they push forward regardless. We know Zelensky doesn’t value the feedback of his commanders, thus any intervention by the generals, short of a coup, would have no effect. Even if virtually all of the Ukrainian forces were wiped out, the brief, Russian retreat would serve Zelensky’s purposes in the propaganda theater. Zelensky would probably see a humongous loss in personnel as worth it.
It would objectively not be worth it, though. I want to see the Russians bring tremendous pain, after observing the atrocious behaviors of the Ukrainians for so long.
These are admittedly somewhat amateurish thoughts; I never made it past Captain, before I had my fill of war and the U.S. Military.
Agree.
While Russian Forces watch the enemy carefully and plot their next moves with precision, Ze and the west are busy checking their “look” in the media mirror. Doing commercials while people die – providing a new definition for ‘zero empathy’ to an objective observer.
So, if Russian Forces were breaking for lunch the west might see it as acute apathy. Filling them with new delusions of hope to launch a sudden counter-offensive. Even just for public recognition, a few “sound bytes,” to put a flag in the middle-of-nowhere. No matter the losses.
Vanity is their Achilles Heel and arrogance makes them their own worst enemy. For this lack of insight, Putin and his Generals got them “pegged.”
No one overstates their abilities more frequently, as a media narrative better than natoistan. Politics and war don’t mix.
Pride always goes before a fall.
I think that this is, as usual, far more complicated than we think. Apart from the military aspect, there are so many other variables. There are reasons Russia is holding so much back in this SMO, complicated reasons we don’t fully understand.
The best thing for Russians is to make themselves less vulnerable to FUD and focus on their own work! There’ll probably be bigger downs and ups over the next year’s.
By the way I think it’s quite possible that Russia prefers that the neocons continue in power because they’re hastening the collapse of the West.
There’ll probably be bigger downs and ups over the next year’s.
Agreed
By the way I think it’s quite possible that Russia prefers that the neocons continue in power because they’re hastening the collapse of the West.
Agreed again
Thank God there was no Telegram when Manstein and the Nazis briefly took back Kharkov in late spring 1943, after the Russians under Rokossovskiy had driven them back hundreds of miles from the collapsed Stalingrad pocket. Incidentally, Politico cited the Manstein offensive as an example of historic counterstrokes for Kharkov in one of their articles this weekend, tipping their hand.
This is going to be a long war, not only because of UkroWehrmacht fanaticism after eight years of massive brainwashing, but primarily due to the fanaticism of those in Washington and London who would strip the US and all NATO armies of every piece of equipment they could send (leaving next to nothing for Taiwan when China takes action there later this decade) before admitting the defeat of their greatest proxy army ever.
If you can console yourselves with one thought after putting down the Telegram gloom and doom, it’s that Russians have suffered vastly worse setbacks in 1941-45 and came back to win. And any army that idolizes Hitler’s Wehrmacht and above all the Waffen SS Galizien is bound to repeat the Nazis mistakes against Russians. Above all the one of trying to fight an existential war with them in the first place.
Back in WW2 the anglo-zionist empire and its lend-lease program was what saved soviet russia. today both fight against Russia.
Thanks for the excellent SITREP/analysis of the situation, and thanks for the music, too – except that “Spain” is most definitely not a composition by Chick Corea, but rather, an adaptation of “Concierto de Aranjuez”, by the famous Spanish composer Joaquín Rodrigo. For anyone who may be interested, here is a link to the concert, played by Paco de Lucía. All the best.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9RS4biqyAc
“Spain” is most definitely not a composition by Chick Corea, but rather, an adaptation of “Concierto de Aranjuez”, by the famous Spanish composer Joaquín RodrigoM
LOL!!
As somebody who actually studied and played both, I assure you that you absolutely and terminally wrong!
You are confusing the intro to the composition (which indeed is based on Rodrigo) and the composition itself.
Are you a musician? If so, how could you make such a mistake? And if you are not, why comment with such aplomb on things you clearly do not understand???
What beautiful musical choices Andrei. Thank you. And to the topic at hand, the beautiful music the Ukies are dancing to, like all music will probably come with surprises that will awe and delight those who can appreciate them. They’ll be taken from a waltz to a jig and a reel.
Cheerleaders don’t win football games. Neither do the coaches and commentators. They only tilt with their lips and pom poms from the sidelines and let others do the jousting.
https://fivegunswest.blogspot.com/2022/09/hey-joe-where-you-going-with-king.html
Please don’t use the comments section to plug you website, thank you!
There is total disregard despise from the zionazi neocons Nuland , Blinken, etc for human lifes specially Slav lifes no matter Ukr, russians or any other. Z btw does not care either. He is there to see as many as possible Ukrainas and Russians dead. That his role. I would not be surprised that the Poles will be thown next to fight for ”freedom” against the Russians.
Thank you for your analysis. I feel the pressure that some of my elder anti-war friends told me about in contemplating joining the international brigade in Spain to fight the fascists and then joining the war against the Nazis and Italian and Japanese fascists (they were ‘pre-mature anti-fascists’ according to the US military). I am still anti-war, even as I get that guilty pleasure of watching Nazis and fascists get their deserved brutal death. I know that peace cannot come from war, but I know that no peace can come as long as some (the US and NATO depend upon war for domination and empire), so that, in order to protect innocents world-wide from premature death at the hands of the neo-liberal, neo-colonial, imperial, racist West, there will be blood-letting. Sadly. Regrettably. But necessarily it seems. The US and Europe have more blood on their hands. I hope this ends badly – horribly so – for the West.
As for the music – I love that you end the week with hope. Here is my addition, the highest and best that the US gave to world spirit: ‘Great Black Music, Ancient to Future’ as the Art Ensemble of Chicago would call it. This is Coltrane, his quartet, the fabulous Eric Dolphy, and a young Freddie Hubbard: Ole.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FR6h63xwtc
You are right, peace does not come from war.
But survival does.
And without survival, there is no peace.
Only pacification.
These Ucraniian style kamekazi attacks encouraged by NATO sociopaths is obscenely insane. Thank goodness Russian mindset is not like the top sociopath, the U..S, “kill them all and let god sort them out”.
This has nothing to do with Biden, making him look better, and the coming midterm elections. It is simply a PR ploy to justify continuing the cascade of money to the military complex.
The US is now pressuring its NATO colonies into giving their military’s current equipment – not the old warehoused junk from WWII – to Ukraine in order to pressure them to rebuild with shiny new $$$$$ US gear.
Meanwhile the U$ is selling their Euroslaves natural gas for TEN TIMES the domestic price.
If you want to understand what’s happening, follow the money. Michael Hudson spells it out succinctly here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVGrSp1xRCQ
It’s called finance capitalism, and it is applied to EVERYTHING.
Totally agree @BlackCloud, its the M-I-C’s business model. Assange stated it clearly in 2011:
“The goal is to use Afghanistan to wash money out of the tax bases of the US and Europe, through Afghanistan, and back into the hands of a transnational security elite. The goal is an endless war, not a successful war.” – Assange on prolonged wars
… and
In the West, “People will reach maturity and adulthood, under the understanding that there is always a war, and at that point, war will not be something that is unusual or surprising, or horrifying. War will become the new normal.” – Assange on normalized wars
Of course, te name of any nation: Somalia, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Ukraine, Taiwan can be substituted for “Afghanistan”.
Unfortunately that money goes back a long ways, longer than most people can track.
But it still finds a way to control you after all those following years of what was going to be a love affair, but wound up being a fleece affair by inflation, if you didn’t follow it to its absolute end and then apply it to todays laws and fight like hell to prevent from being, fleeced.
My modest Thinking about what’s happening in the Kharkov area: First comment on your fanstastic blog
This Ukrainian operation reminds me of the Battle of the Bulge which took place not far from my home (I’m from Liège in Belgium) in December 1944. My late father studied this battle until his death as an amateur historian who had succeeded in meeting the veterans of the 99th US division and the first SS panzer in the early 90s in a Belgium military camp in the Ardennes close to the 1944 front line.
Like the Germans in 1944, the Ukrainians launched an offensive in Kharkov. As in 1944, the inexperienced Russian troops (national guard) could not do anything like the 106th, 99th, 28th US divisions (among others) which mostly fled… The battle lost momentum due to lack of fuel and logistics. In the Ukraine, I’m afraid that if there is a rush at the beginning, the experienced troops will soon arrive and the artillery is already doing its job… Far from the logistics lines. And unlike the winter of 1944, the weather is sunny, which allows the ultra-dominant Russian air force to reduce the Ukrainian salient. We are only three days into the battle and already some think it is over. The Battle of the Bulge lasted just about 6 weeks (December 16, 1944 – January 25, 1945). Soon after, from the moment the Rhine was crossed, the end was quick for the Germans, hoping I guess that the Americans arrived before the Russians in Berlin…
I think it will take much less time for Ukraine to lose the battle of Kharkov… Especially if the Russians carry out an offensive counter towards Nikolaiev… The Ukrainians – wanting absolutely to defend thoroughly on all fronts – will withdraw forces from Kharkov to defend Nikolaiev and consequently Odessa. As the 1st, 2nd and 3rd panzer SS left the front of Kursk at the announcement of the Landing of the Allies in Italy… The way of commanding the army of Zelenski reminds me a lot of that of the little German mustached after the failure of Stalingrad…
Here at the end of the day the reality of an overwhelming and devastatingly punishing Russian victory is even more apparent than it was 10 hours ago.
The Russian-held part of Balakleya was never taken; neither Kupyansk nor Izyum are threatened; AFU casualties are catastrophic.
https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1568231658155044864
From reading western media, this has all the ingredients of a s#!t salad. I know when someone is trying to “put lipstick on a pig”.Here is just the way it is: Unless NATO is willing to provide air cover for the Ukies {that would be considered direct military involvement and an act of war}, this so-called offensive will exhaust itself in a matter of days, if it hasn’t already. The US press releases are pure comedy, a novice reader would get the impression this is the Ukrainian version of Operation Bagration. Obvious to me and the author this attack was planned and executed out of pure desperation; Ukie morale was extremely low, and many units were probably at risk of mutiny. Now, at least they have something to cling to, even if for several days. I suspect this time next week {if not sooner}, it will be back to the meat grinder for the Ukies. Draw them in {by giving up some ground}, then send in the armored units into their rear and cut them off. Another cauldron, just like that. In war, things are in a state of flux {until the end stage}. Ebb and flow. It’s a ways off yet from getting too excited. This is to be expected. In fact, I am surprised it hadn’t happened sooner.
If reports of massive troop and equipment movement by the Russians are true and that it would be hard for them to be unaware of a Ukraine troop build up. My educated guess is the Russian leadership expected something but wasn’t convinced they knew the direction of the offensive. They probably wanted to see the Ukrainians commit to a direction before executing a massive logistics operation. I’m not sure I would call it a “trap” but a prepared response.
My educated guess is the Russian leadership expected something but wasn’t convinced they knew the direction of the offensive.
Very sensible guess. This is also my view (until proven otherwise!)
“Here at the end of the day the reality of an overwhelming and devastatingly punishing Russian victory is even more apparent than it was 10 hours ago.
The Russian-held part of Balakleya was never taken; neither Kupyansk nor Izyum are threatened; AFU casualties are catastrophic.” – Will Schnyver
https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1568370298373967872
https://www.bitchute.com/video/pkcRhh7yKJIr/
Large ww1 style ukie colums of troops marching forward. I dont see that ending well. And yes a week will have ukies worse off than before they started this. Concern trolls feel vindicated…until next week.
Thanks for the update, Andrei. Will be wise for everybody not to jump too high on the conclusions regarding the famous UAF offensive. So far there is a lot of noise and not enough signal. We do not have any certainty that in the area of UAF advances was Russian army and not DPR troupes. Hard to believe the Russian army knowingly let UAF to advance unless there is serious plan behind it. Probably on next few days the real tactic will reveal and surprises will be. Lets just wait and see when trap will close. No adults with the IQ above room temperature will trust MSM nor Mark Milley. He was capable on calling Chinese army general to assure him that America won’t attack China during last days of Trump administration. That is pretty telling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6vRSzsBKVE
NATO spurring Ukraine to keep fighting:
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg: if Ukraine ceases hostilities, it will “cease to exist,” but if it continues, then the Kyiv regime will continue to be supplied with modern weapons with the prospect of switching from Soviet weapons to Western ones.
And a good time will be had by all, until winter.
Oh but it gets better: there are rumors that Stoltenberg will be replace by a Canadian Ukronazi freak.
That will be “fun” to watch….
This Ukronazi (or staunch “Liberal”) is more than that. But who’d of thought? [sarc]
With a maternal grandfather as editor in chief at the daily paper “News of Krakow” for the Nazi regime during WWll in Poland. But later denied his connection to Nazi Germany, claiming it a RU disinformation campaign. While later assisting an uncle in arranging information gathered from the grandfather’s connection to the Nazis as recently as 1996.
It just keeps getting better and better…
Many people have been clamoring for big arrows on the map, but big arrows always come at great cost. No matter how overwhelming a force, big arrows are expensive. Russia has been parsimonious with manpower, limiting the potential for big arrows and frustrating the chairborne brigades. So Ukraine going for a big arrow makes a splash. Of course careful with manpower is not part of Ukrainian doctrine, perhaps because they know that you’re careful with manpower for the sake of the future and there’s not much reason to save for the future if you’re Ukraine.
Maybe everyone’s surprised that after six solid months there actually was an even initially successful counteroffensive. I don’t want to minimize the *potential* the offensive has/had to be expanded upon and cause Allied forces a bunch of problems, but my initial reaction is, “ok, only another 130-some-thousand square kilometers to go and I’m still not seeing the path to that without a complete breakdown of the Russian effort.”
There’s is an objective way to answer your question, whether Russian generals are smart or incompetent: were the residents of Belakleia pulled out of the city before the counter offensive, or abandoned to be massacred.
Another reasonable military affairs writer has come online, writing on substack as Big Serge Thoughts:
https://bigserge.substack.com/
On this Ukronazi offensive specifically:
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/ukraine-counterattacks [“Please Remain Calm”]
It may be pointless to make this comment in such a crowded field, but on the one hand we have Saker’s most considered opinion that we have to wait and see before making any judgment on the battle situation, and on the other hand, dear Saker again bemoans the (apparent) fact the Russia’s MOD is kindergarten when it comes to psyop/narrative.
I’m increasingly persuaded that the Kremlin has made a severely rational and logical analysis of the “information war” and concluded that it loses more by trying to compete than by staying the course of saying a true thing once and formally, and letting the world learn all over again how to deal with sincere communication.
Personally, I think it’s a gift to all of us that Russia doesn’t play the info-war game. Yes, it could create a massive apparatus, and yes it could broadcast a stronger volume of the same narrative to the world – but to what end? And yes, it might begin by telling the truth but who can guarantee that such an apparatus would always remain true? Much better not to have one in the first place.
Instead, Russia has taught us to wait, and to trust that which is reliable, and to listen more closely, and in turn ourselves to become more silent, and removed from the clamor from the west.
And what possible effect on the battlefield can Russian propaganda have? The civilized world knows to listen to Russia’s formal announcements, and – more to the point – to see how Russia changes the field on the ground.
~~
I’m very happy to wait for the outcome. I have developed a working trust in Russia’s general staff. It has massive resources to throw at the situation if needed. So far, not needed – or more likely, Russia does not see the battlefield in the shape it wants yet.
As Saker says, we must wait and see…and as I’ll say, be grateful we can wait in the blessed peace of Russia’s not wasting words on emptiness.
“I’m increasingly persuaded that the Kremlin has made a severely rational and logical analysis of the “information war” and concluded that it loses more by trying to compete than by staying the course of saying a true thing once and formally, and letting the world learn all over again how to deal with sincere communication.”
Amen, Grieved.
“Yes, it could create a massive apparatus, and yes it could broadcast a stronger volume of the same narrative to the world – but to what end? ..Instead, Russia has taught us to wait, and to trust that which is reliable, and to listen more closely, and in turn ourselves to become more silent, and removed from the clamor from the west.”
Hear, hear!
I was collecting Native American proverbs and found a few gems that expound on these and related thoughts:
▪︎ “It is better to have less
thunder in the mouth and
more lightening in the hand.”
▪︎ “Listen, or your tongue
will make you deaf.”
▪︎ “There is nothing as eloquent
as a rattlesnake’s tail.”
▪︎ “It is less of a problem
to be poor than to be
dishonest.”
▪︎ “Beware of the man
who does not talk and
the dog that does not bark.”
▪︎ “It does not require many
words to speak the truth.”
Couldn’t agree more. There’s no point competing with the West’s domination of media via various globe-spanning conglomerates which make it impossible for Russia, China, Iran, and others targeted by the West to reach the mass of the people wherever Western media conglomerate power dominates. Russia is smart to target its message not at the masses but at governments and other major players across the globe. Buyers of its oil, buyers of its wheat, buyers of its weapons, and others across the globe who vote with their money and power. It’s succeeded in preventing Russia from becoming isolated. It’s a great strategy and so far its paid huge dividends.
I think it is the responsibility of the commentariat to put forth the info which is not coming from the Kremlin, mainly the info that might enlighten the broad populace.
The “news” at BBC today (other than wall-to-wall coverage of Royal mourning, of course) was the claiming of “Ze” of the reconquest of 1000 km 2. Taking that, the most optimistic claim, at face value, and considering the months old estimate that the Allied forces had liberated 20% of the Ukraine territory, that is, some 120,000 sqare km, even if we gave 50,000 km 2 to the areas liberated before the start of the SMO (Crimea and fractions of Donetsk ans Luhansk oblasts -couldn’t find the exact area of the two latter BTW-), that would mean that the Allied had ceded some 1/70th of the liberated territories, in a war that, as The Saker and A. Martyanov had illustrated, its more about mobility than territorial control. Hardly a motive for screams of despair, IMO. Lastly, the majority of Telegram channels today reported the lost of steam of the ukro goons.
Very good point very aptly made, thank you!
My sincere pleasure! Thank you!
“the months old estimate that the Allied forces had liberated 20% of the Ukraine territory”
But doesn’t the 20% include Crimea and the parts the Donbass already had under control before the SMO?
Of you read my post with attention, you’ll see that I discounted an estimated 50,000 km 2 for that (Crimea 27,000; LDNR before Feb 24, 23,000 guesstimate). So the territories liberated since start of the SMO, aprox 70,000 km 2. If you have a better estimate, go ahead with it.
To the impatient, all you can do is wait. What I love about Saker, Martyanov, Larry and M.O.Alabama is, they wait and see. Then they inform us. And what they report is true, not BS. Sometimes that means nothing new appears on their sites for days. What they report took place 2, 3 or 5 days back. Then, we get sitreps and maps. Takes time for the truth to filter out to us. What’s happening tonight we’ll hear about next week. Patience kids. When today’s confusion comes out in the wash next week, I’ll take Russia, giving 35. By Monday there will be stunning casualty counts. I’m waiting for a Tet moment. But not even the best ISR is real time. Now go enjoy the weekend. I’m off to Vermont on my Suzuki in the morning, back Sunday. I have the need, the need for speed. I suggest you all do the same. The truth will come out in due time.
The fact that ‘part of the Russian audience is freaking out’ and the ‘western PSYOPs are making the most of this’ shows that the ‘West’ still firmly believes that ‘regime change’ in Russia is inevitable and imminent. Just a little ‘defeat’ on the front and whoosh the ‘revolution’ is ready (the scenarios of 1905, 1917).
This ‘information’ published by the Daily Beast: ”St. Petersburg Officials Demand Vladimir Putin Be Tried for Treason in Letter” coupled with the incessant ‘information’ barrage about the imminent coup against Putin seems to confirm their illusions.
They can keep dreaming, Putin is as popular as ever and the SMO has massive popular support.
Which no NATO leader/country can claim.
And the consolidated West is committing economic, spiritual, society, and moral suicide.
Anybody want to bet that the West will win?
:-)
Yes he is still popular. But if they do not win this war his popularity will melt down quickly.
I know people psychology.
I understand Western drive to oust Putin. But why they think they could install Western stooge??
“The sense of FUD”
Oh what a great expression! I’ll give you credit when I pinch it.
Alas, I only used a well-known expression.
So please don’t credit me with it.
Cheers
Andrei
A trap? Only time will answer that question but it’s interesting how things began. Russia could definitely see the buildup of force’s but where are they going? Russia knows the west has satellites flying over Ukraine everyday and spy flights fly up and down the black sea just outside the blocked area. Show the west the area is lightly defended and allow the trap to open. Putin and Shoigu were in the east for war games. (Like the Russian military is run by two people) So the stage was set. A big advantage to get the Ukrainians out from behind the civilians and their bunkers. It appears to me the Ukrainian force’s have outrun there supply lines and most importantly there fuel support. Can’t drive heavy armor with no fuel. War is logistics and Russia has a big advantage there. We shall see in a few days.
Please don’t forget the presence of the Russian satellite constellation.
Cheeers
My reference now to that constellation will respectfully be “Bellerophontes.” Who in Greek mythology is the killer of Belleros: the bane of all mankind’s existence.
Thnx!
Nobody ever speaks about Chinese space reconnaissance. Is it not reasonable to assume that China is providing help to Russia in this regard? China does not want to get involved in any overt way yet providing satellite reconnaissance data to Russia is both effective and invisible. If there is any substance to the non-formal Chinese/Russian alliance, it should be a non-brainer for the Chinese to provide help and for the Russians to accept it, especially considering the ever increasing aggressiveness displayed by the West against China itself. It would also allow the Chinese to test at least part of their military capabilities in a real war situation against the West. Overall, it would change the reconnaissance balance of power considerably.
Good points. China is a strong, technically advanced ally. Not to be underestimated.
“ Russian information operations still suck and are Kindergarten level …”
IMHO, it is what makes them more believable. My own allegiance is to truth, which is why my sympathies lie with Russia as opposed to the Empire of Lies. If Russia also becomes fork-tongued, that would be truly sad.
Maybe, for people like you, who place truth above comfort. But, alas, most people cannot function that way.
And, look, the Russian MoD being silent for three days just looks *terrible*.
Russia has lost the information war mainly in Western controlled main stream and social media, or has never even tried to wage any information war in these domains. It has not lost or even won the information war for the minds of the elites of the global South, as shown by the near lack of sanctions on the part of the global South, attendance at the Vladivostok gathering and other developments. Heck, not even Mexico, neighboring country to the US and intertwined with the US in many ways, has joined the sanctions bandwaggon. The bigger picture is that the lost information war in the West is keeping the West on its self-delusional, hate-filled trajectory of throwing everything and the kitchen sink at the Ukrainian war effort in a piecemeal way and without any sense of grand strategy. The rational thing for the West would be to divide and rule China and Russia partly by woeing the Russians, partly by taking military action that is effective. That’s impossible for the West in the way it is configured at the moment. The West is behaving like a runaway train that has been taken over by an armed mob of grand-standing, self-indulged first-class passengers everyone of which thinks he (e.g. Boris Johnson, Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron) or she (e.g. Ursula von der Leyen, Liz Truss) is the greatest locomotive driver ever, whilst they are dishing out money to the train company (the MIC) that they are extorting from the other passengers (our taxes). Very dangerous but also very predictable. As long as this is the case, Russia has no reason to wage the information war.
I would advice everyone not to panic about this Kiev regime attack on the liberated parts of Kharkov oblast. Kiev is, by far, the weaker party in this conflict and will inevitably lose the war. The weaker party can still launch offensives, though. Think of the Confederate invasion of Pennsylvania in 1863, resulting in the Battle of Gettysburg. Yes, they briefly captured the town, but lost the battle — which was, in fact, the key turning point in the entire US Civil War. The outcome here will be no different. Kiev can temporarily take some villages, towns, and small cities, but will lose this fight due to suffering irreplaceable losses.
I also suspect that the timing of the offensive has a lot more to do with the changing of the seasons than Joe Biden’s midterms. The Kiev regime military loves using forests as cover for its troops and their movements. As the leaves soon fall off the trees, that will complicate matters. And, of course, the cooling temperatures combined with Washington’s anti-Russia sanctions war will wreak havoc on the EU economies, which will cause mass opposition to break out in Europe against this US proxy war. Thus, the West had to launch their desperate offensive now. They could not afford to wait.
Now, some videos for today.
Kiev regime opting for ‘insane offensive’ in effort to get more weapons – Russia:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/kherson-offensive:0
Russian Mi-26 helicopters transfer weapons, military equipment, and personnel (in Kharkov oblast):
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/modrf:4
Russian reinforcements head towards the Kharkov front, part 1:
https://rutube.ru/video/f81092ab63ceb9e998bfa11cfc51beec/
Russian reinforcements head towards the Kharkov front, part 2:
https://rutube.ru/video/cdb05bc24207f5ff93ea639b8aecab46/
Russian reinforcements head towards the Kharkov front, part 3:
https://rutube.ru/video/418d6b6d734b3d8af1d2d4fe6ad85291/
Russian assault helicopters head toward the Kharkov front:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/quyH0mHus1lz/
Russian Mi-8 & Ka-52 choppers work together on combat mission:
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/MI8:1
Russian Su-25s hit enemy positions:
https://rutube.ru/video/b22d50dee0a754d2b02a9d0b167de5e0/
Russian Urugan MLRS pound Kiev regime forces near Izyum:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/Ygz0QnlPctWn/
Western mercenaries getting driven back from Izyum:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/f1838agrPmfy/
Wow, thank you for all these videos, please keep posting links to such videos if you can (so that the “alternatively gifted” idiots don’t claim “wait! we did not see any footage to confirm what the Russians are saying”.
thank you
Thanks… here are some more videos from the Kharkov front:
Russian heavy artillery pounds the enemy somewhere near Izyum (in the liberated parts of Kharkov oblast):
https://www.bitchute.com/video/wlfZzXXO3cdY/
Brief video clip shows how large numbers of the enemy snuck through forest paths to launch their surprise attack:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/pkcRhh7yKJIr/
Endless ambulances carrying back Kiev regime wounded from the Kharkov front:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/DbGJkaY3KrgW/
Russian reinforcements arrive near Balakleya:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/UvDkp7Zt2QPy/
A Kiev regime militant recorded his own death — taken out by Russian special forces apparently somewhere on the Kharkov front (18+):
https://www.bitchute.com/video/dFJIPbLzQutb/
Plus two more videos from the Nikolayev/Kherson front.
Russian troops liberated the settlement of Blagodatnoye in Nikolayev oblast:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/wHtB12sXSqdg/
Russian airborne troops beating back Kiev regime troops along on the Kherson/Nikolayev front:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/UjrovgTZaIxz/
thank you!
please keep these videos coming as I physically don’t have the time to look for them.
Thanks again!
….That is about as ignorant and stupid and ignorant and stupid gets……
Oh yeah, how about financing the parasite Israel and prostrating to every one of its leaders for the last seventy years, while its henchman, acolytes, fifth column, and lackeys devour every last morsel of the country.
whoops my bad, Its the same people.
The Saker,
I have massive respect for your detailed analysis – and Bernhard Hoftsman’s, but I don’t know wtf is going to happen next, and neither do you two.
I have never actually seen them, but wanted to Upper Manchester Free Trade Hall. My girlfriend wouldn’t come. I should have gone by myself, but I was upset. Not seen her since. Too posh for me,
England was a Free Country when I was a kid. You could slag off Anyone including The Queen without fear of arrest.
How was it in Switzerland and now the USA for you?
“Sex Pistols – God Save The Queen”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqrAPOZxgzU
We all thought she was a lovely lady.
Our Queen
RIP lilibet
Tony
With the greatest respect,
England was n very a “free” country, the nearest it came to being free was under the greatest Englishman ever to of held the office of prime minister……. Clement Attlee, as Nye Bevin stated…. if a tories lips moved, they are lying…… historically, nothing changes.
The same deceit, and the English nation walked into wars that’s of none of there concern…… but it makes profits for the aristocracy.
While I respect your thoughts of the death of your English queen, I have no interest in her or her family, or those she owed her position.
Andrei My Brother,
God bless you and yours. Thanks to you and Andrei Martyanov, I’m not worried so much about this. I am worried for the civilians and what they will face from the Banderist cutthroats, but I am hoping and praying that the Russians and DPR forces on the front lines will be keeping the Banderists too busy to hunt Moskals. These people of the Kiev Regime (and the Western Ruling Class and Political Elites) supporting them are truly evil. I am speaking of those who know full well what they’re doing (and have done) to Ukraine. They are evil people. The rest in the West supporting Ukraine are brainwashed sheeple. We have plenty of them here in the San Francisco Bay Area. Especially in the rich parts. You see the Ukrainian flag flying and Ukrainian bumper stickers. It’s BLM/Rainbow flag of 2022. Mere virtue signaling. Disgusting but not that intelligent. Take care Andrei.
Sincerely,
Jamie
Voenkor Kitten Z
Military expert Boris Rozhin on the course of the special military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine on 09/09/2022, 21.18 Moscow time, specially for the Voenkor Kotenok Z @voenkorKotenok channel :
1. Fighting continues on the near approaches to Kupyansk . The Armed Forces of Ukraine failed to break into the city itself. Reinforcements of the RF Armed Forces are being transferred to the city, and artillery and air strikes are launched on the accumulations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine equipment to the west of Kupyansk.
The enemy is shelling the city with MLRS and artillery. The bridge over the Oskol was put out of action. Both sides are pulling up reserves to the city.
2. The enemy continues to press along the Oskol to the south towards Izyum , throwing forward the DRG.
The transfer of reserves of the RF Armed Forces, including by helicopters, is also underway to the city. The enemy is trying to move mechanized units behind the light infantry as quickly as possible in order to strengthen control over the Kupyansk-Izyum highway. Because of this, the main supply is now through Oskol.
The enemy will obviously try to create supply problems along this road, or even break through to it east of Izyum.
3. In the Krasny Liman area, the enemy is probing the front on the northern bank of the Seversky Donets, operating in groups of DRGs in the gray zone and accumulating a fist for a potential strike on Krasny Liman in order to at least tie down the actions of the Izyum group, and as a maximum, try to recapture Krasny Liman.
4. The situation in the Balakliya region is still incomprehensible, since even the enemy reports that the city is not yet completely controlled and there are some battles going on there. In the occupied settlements north of Balakleya, the Nazis begin to unleash terror against the civilian population.
@voenkorKotenok
Rybar day end summaries:
Rybar
❗️🇬🇧🇺🇦 The situation in the Soledar direction
by the end of September 9, 2022
▪️The units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the east of Bakhmut (Artemovsk) made an unsuccessful counterattack attempt, after which they were counterattacked in response by Wagner PMC units. Russian fighters managed to advance towards the industrial zone along Patrice Lumumba Street and capture six Ukrainian servicemen.
▪️The advanced forces of the PMC Wagner came close to the territory of the electric substation of the Donbasskaya substation, taking the territory of the facility into a semicircle.
▪️To the east of Nikolaevka, the Second allied forces, developing an offensive from the suburb of Gorlovka Zaitsevo , cleared two strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
▪️At the same time, Wagner PMC detachments are advancing towards Nikolaevka II from the direction of Kodema . The village itself and its environs are completely under the control of Russian fighters.
▪️The Wagnerites continue to destroy strongholds in the fields, moving from the Vershina – Kodema line towards Otradovka .
▪️In Soledar , the allied forces advanced in residential development, capturing several blocks, which made it possible to level the front line along the northwestern side of the Knauf-Gypsum plant.
Rybar
🇬🇧🇺🇦An hour ago, rocket artillery of the RF Armed Forces covered a landing southeast of Bereznegovatoy , where there was a temporary transfer point and a camp of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Reinforcements were accumulating there, which were preparing to be transferred to Andreevka on the other side of the Ingulets and further, to Sukhoi Stavok and to the Davydov Brod-Berislav highway .
The total losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reach two hundred people killed and wounded.
#Nikolaev #Russia #Ukraine #Kherson @rybar *Support us:
Rybar
❗️🇬🇧🇺🇦 The battle for Kharkov: the situation on the Izyum-Kupyansky sector of the front
by the end of September 9, 2022
🔻Kupyanskoe direction
▪️Due to the transfer of reserves to the Kupyansky sector of the front, the RF Armed Forces managed to stop the advance of the main forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine a few kilometers from the city limits.
▪️By the end of the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine established control over the villages of Chkalovskoye, Shevchenko, Borovskoye and controlled the Chuguev-Kupyansk highway to Grushevka, which made it possible to transfer equipment and artillery systems to the line of contact.
▪️The Ukrainian command is forming a strike force to storm Kupyansk in the area of Grushevka and Staroverovka. The RF Armed Forces carry out artillery and rocket-bomb strikes on enemy concentration areas.
▪️The Armed Forces of Ukraine are shelling the rear settlements in the liberated territories. The village of Bolshoy Burluk
was hit especially hard . The Ukrainian formations will block the reserves of the Russian Armed Forces in Kupyansk and try to bypass the city from the north with the main forces, advancing in the direction of Dvurechensky.
🔻Izyum direction
▪️From the south of Izyum, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are advancing from Vernopolye and Dolina.
▪️When trying to advance to Gorokhovatka , the mobile groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine met with a rebuff near the village of Yasinovatoe.
▪️The reserves of the RF Armed Forces came to the eastern bank of the Oskol River , which prevented attempts to cross the river by mobile groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Apparently, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will strengthen the mobile units on the western bank of the Oskol with heavy equipment and will try to conduct reconnaissance in combat of the defense of Izyum from the direction of Gorokhovatka.
🔻Balakley direction
▪️There are unverified reports that the eastern quarters of Balakleya are still being held by detachments of the RF Armed Forces. In the near future, we should expect an attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the villages of Vesele and Kunye .
In the near future, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will attempt to attack the Liman from Raygorodok. The main goal of the Ukrainian command in the area is to reach the Oskol reservoir and encircle the Russian group near Izyum.
Large resolution map
Rybar
❗️🇬🇧🇺🇦Offensive on Donbass: the situation in the east of Ukraine
by the end of September 9, 2022
▪️In Sudzha in the Kursk region , Ukrainian saboteurs opened fire on a checkpoint of the Russian Guard, several people were injured. Law enforcement agencies are looking for the attackers.
▪️Russian artillery worked on targets in the villages of Senkovka, Bleshnya and Gai , Chernihiv region , as well as Bolshoi Prikol, Stukalovka, and Zapsieli, Sumy region.
▪️During the day, the RF Armed Forces attacked the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Kharkiv and the surrounding settlements: the location of the national battalion “Kraken” was destroyed in the center of the city , in which there were a large number of Ukrainian military personnel.
▪️The Ukrainian counter-offensive continues in the Izyum direction , but the pace of the enemy’s advance has slightly decreased:
➖The Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to take control of the Chuguev-Kupyansk highway to Grushevka, which allows them to transfer reserves and military equipment to the line of contact near Kupyansk . In Grushevka itself and Staroverovka , the enemy’s shock fist is being prepared for the assault on Kupyansk.
➖According to some reports, part of the RF Armed Forces continue to hold the eastern quarters of Balakleya. An attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is expected on Veseloe and Kunya, where one of the key road junctions in this direction is located.
➖Ukrainian forces also attempted to capture the village of Gorohovatka , where there is also a bridge across the Oskol River, but were stopped by allied forces near Yasinovat.
▪️Northeast of Slavyansk , the enemy will soon try to attack Liman from Raygorodok with the aim of further access to the Oskolsky reservoir , which will enable the Izyum grouping.
▪️In the Bakhmut (Artemovsky) direction, the allied forces were able to advance near Bakhmut:
➖The Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to counterattack in the east of Bakhmut , but in the end they were defeated, which allowed the Wagner PMC units to move slightly towards the industrial zone in the east of the city.
➖In the suburbs of Bakhmut , the allied forces are developing an offensive towards Nikolaevka II, Otradovka and the Donbasskaya substation.
➖In Soledar , units of the Russian Armed Forces took control of several blocks near the Knauf-Gypsum plant.
▪️In the Donetsk direction , the shelling of Ukrainian formations on the capital of the DPR and the surrounding settlements does not stop. Positional battles continue in the suburbs of Donetsk.
▪️In the Zaporozhye region , the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to strike at ZNPP and Energodar from Nikopol and Marganets, while Russian artillery tries to suppress enemy positions with return fire.
▪️In the Krivoy Rog direction , positional battles are taking place not far from Vysokopole , as well as on the outskirts of Olgino and Arkhangelsk.
Latest from Military Chronicle:
09/10/2022 Latest news from Kupyanskaya, Balakleya and Izyum. HARD VIDEO of fights. Map of hostilities in Ukraine today at this hour (
“Aviation over Kupyansk is insane. crests are being ironed simply by the tin! Turboprops are heard.” (ZAPISKI VETERAN).
Battle for Kupyansk : the situation on the Izyum-Kupyansk sector of the front.
Kupyansk direction: Due to the transfer of reserves to the Kupyansky sector of the front, the RF Armed Forces managed to stop the advance of the main forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine a few kilometers from the city limits. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have established control over the villages of Chkalovskoye, Shevchenko, Borovskoye and control the Chuguev-Kupyansk highway to Grushevka , which made it possible to transfer equipment and artillery systems to the line of contact.
The Ukrainian command is forming a strike force to storm Kupyansk in the area of Grushevka and Staroverovka .
The RF Armed Forces carry out artillery and rocket-bomb strikes on enemy concentration areas. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are shelling the rear settlements in the liberated territories. The village of Bolshoi Burluk was hit especially hard .
The Ukrainian formations will block the reserves of the Russian Armed Forces in Kupyansk and try to bypass the city from the north with the main forces, advancing in the direction of Dvurechensky .
Izyum direction :
From the south of Izyum, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are attacking from Vernopolye and the Valley. When trying to advance to Gorokhovatka, the mobile groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine met with a rebuff near the village of Yasinovatoe . The reserves of the RF Armed Forces came to the eastern bank of the Oskol River, which prevented attempts to cross the river by mobile groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Apparently, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will reinforce the mobile units on the western bank of the Oskol with heavy equipment and will try to conduct reconnaissance in combat of the defense of Izyum from the direction of Gorokhovatka.
Balakley direction :
There are unverified reports that the eastern quarters of Balakleya are still being held by detachments of the RF Armed Forces. In the near future, we should expect an attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the villages of Vesele and Kunye . In the near future, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will attempt to attack the Liman from Raygorodok . The main goal of the Ukrainian command in the area is to reach the Oskol reservoir and encircle the Russian group near Izyum. (Rybar)
The situation in the Soledar direction by the end of September 9, 2022.
The units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the east of Bakhmut (Artemovsk) made an unsuccessful counterattack attempt, after which they were counterattacked in response by Wagner PMC units. Russian fighters managed to advance towards the industrial zone along Patrice Lumumba Street and capture six Ukrainian servicemen. The advanced forces of the PMC Wagner came close to the territory of the electric substation of the Donbasskaya substation, taking the territory of the facility into a semicircle.
To the east of Nikolaevka, the Second allied forces, developing an offensive from the suburb of Gorlovka Zaitsevo, cleared two strongholds of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, Wagner PMC detachments are advancing towards Nikolaevka II from the direction of Kodema. The village itself and its environs are completely under the control of Russian fighters. The Wagnerites continue to destroy strongholds in the fields, moving from the Vershina-Kodema line towards Otradovka. In Soledar, the allied forces advanced in residential development, capturing several blocks, which made it possible to level the front line along the northwestern side of the Knauf-Gypsum plant.
So Ukros however entered Balakleya but not completely.
Attacking on outskirts of Kupinskoje …attacking toward Isiom
No good at all …all of this is a mistake of Russian command
They underestimated the enemy
Unless the intention was to draw ukrainian troop further east and kill them off there, this is a negligence by russian higher command on a magnitude never seen before i think. This attack has been obvious by everyone interested in this SMO.
That buildup has been gong on for weeks. What are russian intelligence and surveillance doing?
i will add to this that I don´t see any evidence this withdrawal was intentional i is rather a rout right now and this will threaten the line in Donbas as well I think
Heads should roll at higher command
Mikael H: At lot of the YT commenters have been predicting this for weeks, so if they could see it coming, how could the Russian Stavka not? The whole Izium Bridgehead was lightly defended, in terms of quantity and quality, with little field works and entrenchment. And then there was Putin & Shoigu in Vladivostok at the various economic conferences and military exercises while this was developing? It reminds me more of the Regio Esercito and Comando Supremo from 1940 to 1943, than the Russian Stavka. If your supposition in the first sentence is correct, then there ought to be a counterstroke in the next few days. Lets hope. (sigh)
People are so impatient. And when nowadays not many people have experience of military they are easily fooled by noise and military propaganda. It’s waste of time and energy to try to explain to psychos how vulnerable situation any brigade or division is after penetrating 20-30 km or even more if 50 km.
My simple humble interest is focusing much more the strategic economic situation in Europe with political unrest and growing instability. Ukraine is just side show compared to battle between coalition of west and the rest of the world. And when war in Ukraine globally is side show what do we have to think about 1000 km2 (?) area taking by Ukies?
This is the test of what kind of people modern Russians are. If they are just same lame p**ssies as western wokes then clearly Russia don’t deserve any better future. Popular “culture” is mostly Made in USA and has played huge role making citizens stupid and killing real culture. Has it changed Russia too and to bad direction? Do Russians read instead of listening soulless “pop music” and wasting their time with silly tiktok videos?
I’ve heard a lot of speculations that the Ukies ‘successes’ are due to the fact that Putin and his military top-brass ‘took their eyes from the ball’, going to the ‘PR excercise’ Vostok2022. But not too many words about his presence and speech at the Vladivostok Forum, an event of some orders of magnitude than the ‘re-capture’ of empty villages in Kharkov region. Who is actually taking its eyes from the ball (the bigger one)?
I would like to point out that this exact same battle played out in WW2, and we all know the outcome.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Battle_of_Kharkov#/media/File:Map_of_1942_Kharkov_offensive.png
The playground equalizer doesn’t need to say anything as he balances the scales of justice. I believe this is the understanding of strength.
Am i the only pro russia guy happy about the ukr advancing?
It is true russia cannot afford to losd this war. not good for 80% of the world.
Equally true is the Importance of so many other issues. de-dollarisation, destruction of western industrial power etc etc.
Ukraine capitulation on June was the real nightmare to me. Give them some hopium to go along with the captogen and coke.
Maybe let them take a dot in the map good enough to crow about. Let the nato send more stuff and be disarmed.
Keep giving the west hope so they can sanction themselves for a few more winters.
Msybe next year odessa and kharkov. Too many stuff juggling in air. from ossetia to transnisra.
I have been trying to guess the next Russian move since 2014. Never got a single one right. Usually some othed move which seems best in hindsight.
My latest guess: create a cauldron, kill off the dangerous part first then spend 3 months pushing them back very slowly. Everyone saying “Stupid Russianses, stupid” while looking to see which furniture to burn next to keep warm.
I’d also like to point out that the definition of winning in this conflict can’t be measured in land or bodies. The West is prepared to turn every single Ukrainian male into an untrained slab of meat for the grinder. If all EU nations contribute to training Ukrainians, they can pump out 50,000 to 100,000 armies every month, until Ukraine runs out of people. And then there’s Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, all of which are seen by the West with the same disdain as Africans, Asians, and South Americans. As Andrei pointed out, this is naval battle in terms of objectives, playing out on waves of grass. The goal is destroying the equipment, because without heavy weapons, artillery, MLRS, and logistical support–Ukraine posses no real threat to Russia. And after all, that’s Russia’s goal–the demilitarization of Ukraine.
Now, the equipment is the question. How long can Ukraine remain equipped enough to remain a threat to Russia. Again, you’re looking at a mathematical formula here. How fast is Russia destroying equipment compared to how fast Ukraine can be resupplied. From all accounts almost all ex-soviet equipment has been funneled into Ukraine and after these round of offensives is completely gone. Ukraine is HEAVILY supported now by Western-made equipment. How fast can the West make equipment? How does their energy, financial and steel production impact on this? What happens if Russia and China, who command most of the world’s rare earth metals stop supplying? With the exception of the last point, all of this is already in absolute free-fall in the West. NATO is sending their stockpiles, and then that raises the question of how much of this can NATO risk supplying to Ukraine before it becomes really clear to the rest of the world that they don’t have the equipment left to defend themselves? This is the point Germany is particularly concerned about.
Remember, China is the real threat to US global dominance, not Russia. US knows that it can’t face China and Russia together, so the EU is being thrown at the bear. In the wildest dreams, China couldn’t imagine a situation that is better for them. Cheap resources to support Russia, and the West committing suicide. They literally don’t have to do anything but watch in stunned amazement.
I think the VSU and their mercs are going to have a very long walk back to their initial front line positions. There is no way Russian forces did not see just about all of this forming and not formulate a plan. Once this assault group is wiped off the face of the earth, they will be sorely missed by Ukraine.
The PR is just the normal hot air. Giving it much credence is like being amazed at how well a group of farm animals cackle together. I am sure the body count here is going to be amazing, which will have the desired effect on VSU/supporter morale as the mop up ensues for real. My take is simple: this was a very stupid operation by the Ukies and their friends and the massive carnage of their forces that will take place as a result, does not justify justify organizing and executing an op which is devoid of concrete objective. Dumb stuff all the way. My take so, let us see.
Thanks Andrei.
The point is..why such a thing happened..!!!?
You can’t say..it is tactical..The binning of dam collapse biggins with a hole..
My friend you cannot go to war and be involved in love with half heart..either you go fully or you don’t go..this is the killing point in Puten SMO.
The Russians did not build a dam. That’s the point. The Russian forces are at numerical disadvantage and they are constantly maneuvering to a) avoid getting destroyed and b) be able to destroy Ukrainian forces. That is why the Ukrainian advance has no military significance. The Ukrainian forces just got themselves into a situation where they are more easily destroyed.
On the other hand, this situation produces bad optics. Russian morale might suffer a blow. The West was just handed an excuse to pour more weapons into the Ukraine. I fear that this “success” of the VSU will just ensure that NATO fights Russia to the last Ukrainian. I don’t think that we will end up with another “frozen conflict”, but with the complete destruction of one side (militarily or economically).
On the other hand, having to send more weapons to a faltering AFU is a dead giveaway to their status. Obviously, the AFU are as much “MIA” and KIA as are the weapons.
Besides, that the Ukronazis do not collect their dead is strongly indicative that no one is certain what their numbers are, until the RF confirms it. Even at a numerical disadvantage (1:3) the RF kill ratio is near 1:10.
That’s 1 RF casualty for very 10 Ukronazis.
Sending more weapons means less nazis with weapons, means Ukronazi’s suffers huge protracted losses….
… means Russia’s winning by wide margins.
I work long, hard hours and came home to this Saker analysis a bit late. I had to read it a few time and look over the comments and slowly some questions started to form.
Usually I start with the objective and in this case the Ukrainian salient looks to be aimed at some important supply nodes but nothing more than the divisional level. The Uke army doesn’t seem to have a follow on force and will meet some geographical barriers soon (rivers). It is unlikely that this salient can be held once Russian reserves arrive. I dont think this salient can be sustained for very long (a few days?)
Probably this will delay a Russian offensive in another area and with winter approaching perhaps this is the reason the Ukrainians have made such a gamble. Seems to be a very steep sacrifice by the Ukrainian forces but maybe by buying time the Ukrainian government hopes for some higher level of NATO involvement by early next year. Just my 2cents.
A bit of a surprise but hardly a disaster or catastrophic for the Russian. A bump in the road that will in no way effect the overall outcome of the SMO. 404 is still just that.
As you say, this Ukro operation is actually on a very limited scale only and if your maps are correct, they have exposed themselves to all kind of flanking attacks because that breach into the Russian lines is way too long and too narrow. And it seems the Ukros do not have the reserves to expand the breach. BUT: What is also true is that for about the last two months or so the Russian offensive has pretty much stalled. And there is still no second (Northern) front, there is still no push towards the Dnjepr to secure the eastern shoreline before the Winter sets in. And there is no way to make that failure look good. Liberating Ukraine in a “nice” way is an illusion. Russia will need to go all in, crush whatever resistance there is and clean the place like Rudenko did after the war. Everything else is an illusion.
Putin does not want to commit much more manpower probably for political reasons. Move limited troops to another area leaving another undefended for Zelensky to take.
Elections in Russia this week-end..strange neocons timing not?
Putin could not change strategy, I mean total change of strategy before elections. Maybe we will go to the finaly long expected declaration of war or carpet bombing and or strikes on decision centers in Kiev next week? It is about time.
As Russia never ever retaliates at multiple false flags, even inside Russia. How do you want to be respected or feared this way? Simple logic.If I was a neocon I would double down always, it is too easy.
Till a massive STOP happen, something which will scares the West again like before the ‘Kiev feint’.
Otherwise option 1 is total defeat, losing even Donbass and Crimea, regime change in Moscow and back to te 90’s + global humiliation, forget SCO, forget BRICS +…..
Option two: massive and decisive action on the all Ukraine, like in a real war, cut everything(internet, light, rail, water, destroy SBU etc..), decapitate power once and for all.
Only the Donbass has civil deeaths (20k since 2014 +-), everything is destroyed.
Why not do them the same in Kiev, Llov, Ivano fr etc ?
This will lead to chaos and total desorganisation.
It was my forecast on this site two days before SMO started.
At best Syria no win, no lose or worse continuing bombing og russophones forever. Impossible to rebuild, both failed states, whic is perfect for the US(not for the Eu).
U.S. ups the ante: are we indeed headed into WWIII and what can save us?
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2022/09/09/u-s-ups-the-ante-are-we-indeed-headed-into-wwiii-and-what-can-save-us/
Seems to me that what Ukraine is actually proving to the US leadership with this offensive is the willingness of the Ukrainian leadership to continue to sacrifice huge numbers of its troops for the American cause and for NATO weaponry.
In may ways I feel very sorry for the Ukrainian people.
It is now an existential threath for the Western system as for Russia (with 82 % of global South waiting to take definitive position and switch side or not).
When an entity(West = US UK EU NATO) even allows his own economy to be destroyed on purpose, it is fight for survival, whatever the cost, financial and or…human.
Ukraine only battle ground and canon fodders provider.
RF retreated to the eastern part of Kupiyansk. Krasniy Liman is being hit by artillery, the storm on it has begun. It would actually be interesting to see how much personell and hardware Russia can pull together to counter current developments. Even at the danger of being kicked out here: Could it be that Russian infantry numbers and readiness of troops at the Ukrainian border are inflated and that the SMO was forecast to use much less manpower than is now the case?
I am.jusr reading this useful article by Big Serge about the offensive in the Izyum sector. May be of the interest to others here:
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/ukraine-counterattacks
Ukraine sent about 15000 men, potentially half of them foreign mercenaries to battle in kharkiv. Half have been KIA. Russian losses are minimal.
How do you know?
“Today and the next few days we will not receive the most joyful news, and crests will dump gigabytes of photos and videos from the settlements we left behind. Kupyansk has been abandoned and, in fact, we cannot hold out on the right bank of the Oskol River now. I will say this, the decision to withdraw our troops is a military necessity that has prevailed over political expediency, and we must pay tribute to the fact that he who gave the order to withdraw showed courage.
The overslept counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Balakley-Izyum sector, the state of the troops in this area, the lies in the reports to the top, let those who are supposed to deal with all this. I repeat, in the current conditions, an organized withdrawal is the only right decision. And thank God that despite serious territorial losses, our losses in personnel are very small, especially considering the scope of the operation.
In our history, there were the most difficult defeats, after some we became stronger and repaid the enemy a hundredfold, after others, the country itself slipped into disaster. The main thing now is to understand that the Izyum-Balakley battle is Narva, and not Tsushima or Mukden. No need to sprinkle ashes on your head, look for traitors and build conspiracy theories. Such searches lead to a false path, which not only does not correct mistakes, but also aggravates them. We must calmly analyze what happened and realize that there is a difficult war with a strong enemy.”
https://t.me/s/intelslava
I am starting to doubt that casualties are going to stop the Ukrainian/Nato offensive because regardless how much they loose they keep going.
And the Russians are still not taking the initiative.
Ukrops aren’t going to run out of meat anytime soon.
They seem to have embraced the zerg rush strategy.
If they loose 50k soldiers to take a 40k population city against a 10k soldiers enemy force… they are happily taking it.
The Kherson Counteroffensive was well under control by russia. Shelling them on an open field did work out there.
But if Russians have to abandon every city that the enemy appears in, this isn’t going to go well over time.
Ukrops aren’t going to run out of meat anytime soon.
Correct. They have lost thousands of people, but they have many many more.
For them such losses are simply not a problem.
The involvement of NATO troops means that NATO troops are dying in large numbers. It doesn’t matter whether they were “on leave” or wearing different uniform, they are still dead NATO troops.
In proxy wars there is no helicopter Med evacuation, and only poor and overloaded trauma treatment. There will be no acknowledgement of “heroic sacrifice” because it is a dirty war, fighting on the side of Nazis.
NATO manpower losses will rapidly become unacceptable to the West.
Nato whatever mercenaries, experts, trainers, general…body bags don’t count as they are not there officialy.
Nobody will see it, no MSM of course no official statement.
Some have been buried in France, in intimity (the near family), everyone must sign a statement to keep silent (secret defense). They receive a big amount of money in exchange, some kind of life insurance.It happen at night in a military cimetery, corpses will later be moved in the city cimetery of their choice.
The Ukrainians are in Kupyansk and attacking Izyum. Russian forces are reportedly retreating. Except this cannot be an organized retreat, as it comes unexpected. It is a rout. Ukrainians have also retaken Lyman, cutting off the Russian forces. This is very bad news.
If true this is absolute disaster. Russians have to change strategy
Kupiansk has fallen, Izyum is next. This looks like a loss, not a trap for the Ukrainians.
More than ever I have thought that Russian strategy is actually grind EU flat. And keep Ukraine alive to see what will happen to its other supporter.
At the same i can even taste schadenfreude in many Muslim countries. Same in Asia. Europe will get what it deserves.
Judging from the video it looks like the Ukies didn’t shore up the walls of their advance at all.
A pincer type movement could isolate and destroy the entire invasion force.
And that, coming at this time, would leave the west in a Valley Forge type situation.
In the UK, politicians and Military swear their allegiance to the Head of State, now Charles III.
To what extent was / is the UK’s rabid Russophobia driven by the Head of State, and will the situation change with the new King?
In November, Remembrance Day Honours the dead of two World Wars, which includes thousands of dead, fighting Nazis in Europe.
Will the new King be able to lay a wreath at the Cenotaph to honour the dead of World War II, knowing that his Country is actively engaged in arming, training and paying European Nazis, on the rampage once again?
King Charles will be judged by his actions; will he pass the test?
The king and queen of England have only a formal role. They are forbidden from any active role or influence in the politics.
That’s the theory.
King Charles has already stated that he intends to be more active in politics than his mother.
During preparations for one of the Royal Weddings it was suddenly realised that Princess Wotsit was about to wear in public, a tiara which was adorned with RUSSIAN EMERALDS.
Cue shock horror and smelling salts all round.
It is impossible to believe that a British Prime Minister could or would consistently ignore an opinion expressed by the Monarch at their weekly meetings.
What do,you suppose is the purpose of those meetings? The conversations are clearly not one sided.
More on the future influence of a new British Monarch.
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2022/09/09/can-britain-break-from-feudalism-or-will-king-charles-great-reset-go-unchallenged/
Turns out a disaster is unfolding and the only one who has been about right all the time was Strelkov.
But not even he could image, it seems, that NATO would simply send its own units in Ukrainian uniform.
Russia must now escalate or defeat will be inevitable in short order.
The Russian leadership must rise to the occasion. They may be the ones who screwed up most but they are also the ones who must take the right decisions in this dire moment. When a similar battle was lost in 1942, Stalin made decisions that led to the German defeat at Stalingrad. But retreating to Volgograd is not an option. If the front cannot be stabilized in any other way, then nuclear weapons must be used.
For all their success, Ukraine and NATO have made it simple to escalate. It’s mainly a political question of how to put it before the rest of the world, but atrocities against the Russian population are already taking place. They have also not stopped attacking the nuclear power plant. Putin must make a speech where he lays it all out. Then use a small nuclear weapon to destroy one of the Dnepr bridges, see how Ukraine reacts, escalate from there as needed. In any event a declaration of war, martial law and a general mobilization are a given.
Destiny has placed them in their positions. They owe it to the world.
On 01/07 I posted an appeal on this site.
Then it was already obvious that the diplomatic route of secret agreements had imposed itself on SMO, just as the flagrant Russian military deficiencies could no longer be disregarded.
《It was with sadness that I saw here a huge expectation with Trump, soon to dissipate into frustration right at the beginning of his term.
However, this was absolutely predictable.
Please don’t make the same mistake now.》
👉🏽 /europe-fails-with-german-help/#comment-1116583
On 8/23 I made another appeal here, also about the danger of being in denial of the obvious reality of the facts.
《This is what the excerpt from the film is about: the denial of reality and the consequences of our choices.
When we finally suppose we are facing a crossroads, it is only our mind deceiving us once again. There is no crossroads. The choice has already been made, long ago.
What were the choices made, and still ongoing, of the Putin government? The diplomatic route when it replaces the military option decrees the bankruptcy of both.
The only diplomacy possible in a war of life and death is at the point of an AK-47.》
👉🏽 /ukraine-update-dugina-murder-and-blacklisting-of-roger-waters/#comment-1139874
👉🏽 /ukraine-update-dugina-murder-and-blacklisting-of-roger-waters/#comment-1140075
Now there are no words left to be said. The eloquence of the current facts, and their unfolding, will be deafening.
Poor the Ukrainian population who supported the Russian “liberators”.
Much suffering ahead for all of us, oppressed all over the world by Imperium.
Russia just can’t afford to lose in Ukraine or Russia itself would be finished its that simple.
This increasingly looks like a big strategic error on the Ukrainian side. It’s of no importance, whether Russia built it deliberately as a trap or it is developing into such a trap out of the ill conceive push for a PR gain.
The Ukrainian troops have a far too large area and front line to secure without having any fortifications and week resupply lines. I wouldn’t be surprised if the resulting disaster, will give Russian troops an easy way turn the tide into an encirclement and following counterattack. Given the size of the movements it can drag out well into the end of the comming week, before this could become visible. I wouldn’t expect too early changes as Russia will make sure to assemble formidable air and ground forces first and shape the battlefield.
Ooh …… Andrei,
You’re logic and humanity is at loggerheads.
Excuse those that don’t understand simple maps, or those who’s heads are filled with American and European propaganda, no point in herding sheep without a couple of dogs.
No point in hitting ones self over the brutality of Ukrainians by Ukrainians against Ukrainians, at the behest and guidance of American bankers, and there NATO officers, special forces, not forgetting foreigner mercenaries paid for by the CIAs destruction of American society with drug peddling to buy the arms and pay the salaries of the aforementioned!.
They the Ukrainian nation, delude only themselves if they don’t accept the facts, when the are burying there own dead! One can use the word, “Russian” in place of Ukrainian. They are the same people.
Here, its impossible to get impartial news, or sitreps of the SMO. The BBC, also has an acronym that alludes to the perverts and to those that run the BBC. Which, the BBC, Only regurgitating the American drivel and headlines by Hollywood by another perverted long line and retinue of low lives.
Please, keep the faith. Your posts are a life changer.
this comment has been flagged as of little/no value (possibly troll) by the saker
Leaving Izyum, no matter how you sugarcoat this, this is a big fuck up.
In my opinion leaving Izium means that you give up on Slavyansk and kramatorsk and that the troops north of Slavyansk will have to retreat leaving their heavy equipments behind. Or do I miss some roads they can use?
Big failure…yes
The behinning of the end for Putin and for the rest of Russias leadership?
I have seen so much incompetence here in the west and i call westarn political leadarship (and military leadership) a bad parody of the movie “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” (Gökboet) but this is on another level itself.
It`s of course another thing if it was intentional to withdraw to Oskol river but see no evidence that support this
Don´t know what to say
Well, adversity had to come sooner or later.. Russia will have to change the operation and probably drop the limitations. NATO has watched the SMO and set up an attack that would cut through these relatively thin defenses, simple (and inevitable) as that.
Hi Andrei,
For everyone’s pleasure, a great live version from Paco De Lucia, Al Di Meola & John McLaughlin to add to your selection.
https://youtu.be/oJsZT8cRaWM
Cheers!
Sasha
Andrei is Right,
it is too early to get to some conclusions, barely 4 or 5 days, and the chickens in the coop are panicking.
Hey! Haven’t you learned, read, see…?
I don’t know if it is a FUBAR situation, everything in war is in change, flowing. The plans are not static.
Do not forget the objectives of this SMO. Denazify, Demilitarize…
This (so called) Counteroffensive will deplete the best Troops and Equipment of the VSO (the rate of current losses is unsustainable, they can not keep going forever, and these are the best available forces for the Regime in Kiev) please ask yourself: When the VSO bring their reserves in (because they are being lured with the belief of a potential Win, although I do not understand what kind of Win they expect to achieve) and they are committed and exhausted… What will happen when the Russians release their Forces?
Will it be a battle of Kursk, reenacted? Or maybe an Operation Bagration, also reenacted?
The Nazi reenactors are surely doing it very well.
War has a special Tempo, it is not a Serial of Netflix, or a discussion on Twitter. And it is not adjusted to the desires of spectators. The last word hadn’t been said yet.
So, Patience… young Padawan, the (Russian) Force is with us.
You lost the point Mr F.MAN. The whole point of this was to support Russian speaking people. They will get slaughtered during the cleaning process. Everyone says Russia used fraction of the army, then, use the rest of the army, clean the fuckers, restore the the line, then go back to barracks.
Where is the intelligence, heads need to be rolled for this. Putin once said he can take Kiew in 8 hours, then this should not be a problem. Sad for the people.
Mr Rustic,
sadly, that is war, but the civilians were given the chance to evacuate.
I think I do not lose the Point… the Point is just that, a Point, in the whole of things, it is irrelevant.
What you can not lose is the BIG Picture. There are more cities and towns. And whatever the Ukronazi do, will be repaid in kind.
This SMO is not for free, it is at a cost (in the blood and lives of russians)
The Problem is: Sacrifice a bit (something) now, or lose everything later.
The Jeffersonian Quote is perfect now:
“…The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is it’s natural manure.”
It is Curious that the Russians are better “Americans” defending their Freedom that the “Amerikkkans” themselves.
Do you think civilians from small villages had the chance to evacuate ? Who warned them ? Do you think old people or people with small children can just pack a bag and leave ?
These prorussians people have been abandonned by Russia it’s an awful shame.
Russians are fighting the exact same Neocons that attacked the USA on 911. This will not end until Neocons and dual citizen Israelis are removed from the Deep State.
Rustic,
I agree with that, 100%. Withdrawal from a city like Izium will have a devastating effect on moral, specifically in the border regions and for portions of the Russian Federation. And in some circles it will cause some to question the competence of the Russian military and political leadership.
However, what we are now seeing does help clarify an often asked historical question: “Given the talent and proficiency of German general staff, how was it possible that they allowed the 300,000 strong 6th Army to get trapped in Stalingrad?”
Hitler’s War
“Hitler, however, neither saw nor sought any alternative: in his speeches of September and November he had committed himself before the entire nation – he could not relax his grip on Stalingrad and the Volga now. Late on the twenty-first of November he again ordered Paulus to hold on.” (Not a good choice based on what happened 3 months later. )
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/54369677-hitler-s-war
Sadly, Putin is/was in the same position over the “Izium Bridgehead” …and he chose evacuation. A very sad and disturbing choice, given what happened in Bucha.
Personally, I agree with the Saker, we will need to wait 4-5 days to see how this all sorts out. Is it just the last expenditure of the Ukrainian reserves or will Russia need to increase the number of troops it has committed to the SMO? Too early to tell. But, sadly, they apparently don’t have enough forces deployed to immediately hold all of the ground they have taken and enforce a “not one step back” pledge to the populations living in the frontline areas.
All IMHO
Russians have one basic problem – not enough man power, they need more boots on 5the ground