By Pepe Escobar cross-posted on PressTV and the Saker blog and posted with the author’s permission
Iran’s parliament has just approved the accession of the Islamic Republic to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), previously enshrined at the Samarkand summit last September, marking the culmination of a process that lasted no less than 15 years.
Iran has already applied to become a member of the expanding BRICS+, which before 2025 will be inevitably configured as the alternative Global South G20 that really matters.
Iran is already part of the Quad that really matters – alongside BRICS members Russia, China and India. Iran is deepening its strategic partnership with both China and Russia and increasing bilateral cooperation with India.
Iran is a key Chinese partner in the New Silk Roads, or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It is set to clinch a free trade agreement with the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU) and is a key node of the International North-South Transportation Corridor (INSTC), alongside Russia and India.
All of the above configures the lightning-fast emergence of the Islamic Republic of Iran as a West Asia and Eurasia big power, with vast reach across the Global South.
That has left the whole set of imperial “policies” towards Tehran lying in the dust.
So it’s no wonder that previously accumulated strands of Iranophobia – fed by the Empire over four decades — have recently metastasized into yet another color revolution offensive, fully supported and disseminated by Anglo-American media.
The playbook is always the same. Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei actually came up with a concise definition. The problem is not bands of oblivious rioters and/or mercenaries: “the main confrontation”, he said, is with “global hegemony.”
Ayatollah Khamenei was somewhat echoed by American intellectual and author Noam Chomsky, who has remarked how an array of US sanctions over four decades have severely harmed the Iranian economy and “caused enormous suffering.”
Using Kurds as expendable assets
The latest color revolution overdrive overlaps with the manipulation of Kurds in both Syria and Iraq. From the imperial perspective, the proxy war in Syria, which is far from over, not only works as an additional front in the fight against Russia but also allows the instrumentalization of highly dependent Kurds against both Iran and Turkey.
Iran is currently being attacked according to a perverse variation of the scheme applied to Syria in 2011. A sort of “permanent protest” situation has been imposed across vast swathes of northwestern Iran.
What changed in mid-November is that armed gangs started to apply terrorist tactics in several towns close to the Iraqi border, and were even believed to be weaponized enough to take control of some of the towns.
Tehran inevitably had to send IRGC troops to contain the situation and beef up border security. They engaged in operations similar to what has been done before in Dara’a, in the Syrian southwest.
This military intervention was effective. But in a few latitudes, terror gangs continue to attack government infrastructure and even civilian property. The key fact is that Tehran prefers not to repress these unruly demonstrations using deadly force.
The really critical issue is not the protests per se: it’s the transfer of weapons by the Kurds from Iraq to Iran to bolster the color revolution scenario.
Tehran has issued a de facto ultimatum to Baghdad: get your act together with the Kurds, and make them understand the red lines.
As it stands, Iran is massively employing Fateh ballistic missiles and Shahed-131 and Shahed-136 kamikaze drones against selected Kurdish terrorist bases in northern Iraq.
It’s debatable whether that will be enough to control the situation. What is clear is that the “Kurdish card”, if not tamed, could be easily played by the usual suspects in other Iranian provinces, considering the solid financial, military and informational support offered by Iraqi Kurds to Iranian Kurds.
Turkey is facing a relatively similar problem with the Syrian Kurds instrumentalized by the US.
In northern Syria, they are mostly armed gangs posing as “Kurds”. So it’s quite possible that these Kurdish armed gangs, essentially played by Washington as useful idiots, may end up being decimated, simultaneously, in the short to medium term, by both Ankara and Tehran.
If all fails, pray for regime change
A geopolitical game-changer which was unthinkable until recently may soon be on the cards: a high-level meeting between Turkish President Recep Erdogan and his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad (remember the decade-long refrain “Assad must go”?) in Russia, with mediation by none other than Russian president Vladimir Putin.
What would it take for Kurds to understand no state – be it Iran, Syria or Turkey – will offer them land for their own nation? Parameters could eventually change in case Iraqis in Baghdad finally manage to expel the US.
Before we get there, the fact is Iran has already turned West Asian geopolitics upside down – via its smart cruise missiles, extremely effective kamikaze drones, electronic warfare and even state-of-the-art hypersonic missiles.
Empire “planners” never saw this coming: a Russia-Iran strategic partnership that not only makes total sense geo-economically, but is also a military force multiplier.
Moreover, that is inscribed in the looming Big Picture on which the expanded BRICS+ is focusing: Eurasia (and beyond) integration via multimodal economic corridors such as the INTSC, pipelines and high-speed rail.
The Empire’s Plan A, on Iran, was a mere nuclear deal (JCPOA), devised by the Barack Obama administration as nothing but a crude containment scheme.
Trump actually blew it all up – and there’s nothing left: a JCPOA revival, which has been – in theory – attempted for months in Vienna, was always a non-starter because the Americans themselves don’t know anymore what they want from it.
So what’s left as Plan B for the Straussian neocon/neoliberal psychos in charge of US foreign policy is to hurl all manner of fall guys – from Kurds to the toxic MEK – into the Iran cauldron and, amplified 24/7 by hysterical mainstream media, pray for regime change.
Well, that’s not going to happen. Tehran just needs to wait, exercise restraint, and observe how so much color revolution virtue signaling will eventually fizzle out.
Pepe Escobar is an independent geopolitical analyst and author, focused on Eurasia integration. His latest book is Raging Twenties.
It is very obvious that a major war is coming fast to the Middle East for nations are drawing up sides and expanding political alliances. Militaries are modernizing and beating the drums of expansion. I believe Turkey will join with Iran and Syria as we get nearer to a major conflict.
The US and pet mongrel Israel’s influence in the ME is waning. Their military bases, should the US keep poking its filthy nose into sovereign affairs, will be no longer. In less than a decade as Saudi & the Emirati Gulf States turn to China & Russia, Qatar to Turkey, the Axis-of-Evil will be homeless, with Israel contained.
I reckon israhell will be obliterated, not contained. Palestine will be liberated and all Khazarian criminals that fail to escape will rounded up and dealt with.
Those that aren’t enemies will be allowed to stay as equals, not superior colonialists.
Nasrallah said this in a speech earlier this year.
I never thought I’d see the demise of my two most hated “nations” in my lifetime.
royal eunuchs
greater israel project,
crossroads of dirty silk.
one world usury,
banks drawing
tax borders on rotten milk.
reverser of religions,
destroyers of culture,
double speakers of sin.
humanity suffers,
struggles in damnation,
dreams of brics100+ paradise a Win win.
Do these guys ever run out of ammo
As usual, the USA is attempting regime change in Iran by astroturf shenanigans and using terrorist proxies. Iranians have been wise to these tactics ever since they regained control of their own country in 1979.
Iran’s support of Hezbollah in Lebanon, of the majority Shi’ites in Iran, of anti terrorist fighters in Syria and now of Russia against UkroNazi terrorists (providing cheap drone technology etc) have caused the chickenshit armchair warmongering US neocons to spit the dummy and shit their pants. Sanctions have failed and all the crazed psychopaths like John Bolturd can do is scream “bomb Iran”.
We need to do a Lindsay Graham on Bolturd and his ilk, including on Graham himself.
*correction: Iran’s support of… majority Shi’ites in Iraq…
Original comment to which my correction alluded:
As usual, the USA is attempting regime change in Iran by astroturf shenanigans and using terrorist proxies. Iranians have been wise to these tactics ever since they regained control of their own country in 1979.
Iran’s support of Hezbollah in Lebanon, of the majority Shi’ites in Iraq, of anti terrorist fighters in Syria and now of Russia against UkroNazi terrorists (providing cheap drone technology etc) have caused the chickenshit armchair warmongering US neocons to spit the dummy and shit their pants. Sanctions have failed and all the crazed psychopaths like John Bolturd can do is scream “bomb Iran”.
We need to do a Lindsay Graham* on Bolturd and his ilk, including on Graham himself.
*also known as “doing a Soleimani”
Here is a brilliant idea. Russia can actually deliver on the fake promises that the US made to the Iraqi, Syrian and Turkish Kurds about delivering to them their own Kurdish homeland. Once Western Ukraine is rid of the UkrozNazis, that rump state can be resettled and turned into a new Kurdistan! An even better idea than the creation of new Zion in 1948!
Let’s go Brandon!
The article states: “the fact is Iran has already turned West Asian geopolitics upside down – via its smart cruise missiles, extremely effective kamikaze drones, electronic warfare and even state-of-the-art hypersonic missiles.”
WOW, hypersonic missiles!!? The US is still working on hypersonic prototypes.
That line also caught my attention. A quick “Startpage” search and even MSN is reporting this:
https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/world/iran-says-it-has-developed-hypersonic-missile/ar-AA13X2E5
@ Pepe
Obrigado, Pepe, as always.
Spot on, as usual.
Iran is flying east toward the new sunrise at hypersonic speed.
Decades of resistance have paid off, Iran can now enjoy the fruits of years of isolation, embargoes, sanctions, regime change attempts, a rainbow of color revolutions, struggling alone against the corrupt, criminal, Collective West. They are now a power to reckon with, and despite yappi dog Israhell barking, there is very little they can do.
Iran was already protected by Russia’s over-the-horizon AD system in Syria, reason Israel/US were not able to bomb them after years of training for that purpose. No matter which route the zionist bombers would have taken, Iran would have been waiting for them, notified in advance by Russia. Now, with Iran’s acquisition of the 24 SU-35 Russia built for Egypt on a deal that fell through out of fear for “The Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act,” CAATSA, plus 36 more Iran is ordering for a total flotilla of 60 “Super Flankers,” raising the stakes for potential attackers.
Thirty Iranian pilots are already training in Russia, the rumor goes.
Using Kurds as expendable assets
Unfortunately the armed gangs calling themselves “Kurds” have become the Ukrainians of the ME. Everybody uses them, selling themselves to whoever their corrupt capo mafiosi gets more money from. Long ago the Kurds lost their way to statehood, their struggle an existential one, now behaving as Pepe accurately describes them, armed gangs.
They lost their chance to elevate their cause to noble aims, by joining forces with Syria/Iran/Hezbollah, against the CIA/MI6/Mossad-created taqfiris, instead, they sold themselves to the US which will use them as they have done with many other countries/peoples/ethnic groups in history, then toss them as disposable trash.
The Kurds cause for a nation-state is lost, their future looms dark between becoming a full time armed gang, which is their only choice once the US abandons them to their fate, and their destruction by a three-sided political-military pincer between Turkey, Iran, and Syria, one of the reasons for Erdogan rapprochement with Syria.
If all fails, pray for regime change
What else?
During the failed JCPOA negotiations, Biden was loudly barking about attacking Iran if they didn’t come to an agreement, and the “greyish revolution” we are witnessing is all they can muster as an attack. Your recommendation that “…Tehran just needs to wait, exercise restraint, and observe how so much color revolution virtue signaling will eventually fizzle out,” is an accurate reading of how the current kerfuffle will fade away.
Iran, against all odds, has upheld the principles Ho Chi Minh enunciated for Viet Nam, by which all countries struggling against colonialism and imperialism should live by,
“Nothing is more important than independence and freedom.”
Ho Chi Minh
Lone Wolf
Agree. The trick to tamper down those “color revolutions” are to stretch it out, control it, keep your eyes out on changes/leaders, control weapons flow, and wait. After a few months, the sheeps will find better things to do with their time than to constantly sit on streets.
Vicki “F the EU” Nuland has attacked two NATO countries, Germany and Turkey. This means the end of NATO isn’t coming, its done.
NATO, EU, EC, USEUCOM, and SACEUR have overlapping responsibilities, missions, and C4ISR. They almost have overlapping street addresses. They could be reflagged as one organization except that Nuland has already caused The USA to make direct attack on two NATO members and indirect attack on others. Who’s keen to raise Nuland’s Army?
With NATO tactically kaput and EU and EC operationally kaput beyond financial terrorism, that leaves USEUCOM and US-dominated SACEUR as the only strategically capable forces in Europe, at least theoretically.
Actually, with Europe deindustrialized, demoralized, and overrun, and The USA dehumanized and desanitized, neither USEUCOM nor SACEUR has force-in-depth sufficient to conduct more than terrorist operations, and those more or less helter-skelter depending on what the good idea fairy whispers inside the dope-heads of State, CIA, The US Foreign Policy Establishment (USFPE, uniformly bumptious Neocons), and The City of London upon their rising from bed each day.
So which is more operationally important to Nuland and gang, USEUCOM or SACEUR? That is, apart from the fact that neither is strategically capable. Which structure is melded into which in order to create a unified command of force? . . . such as might be possible. Vicki’s got herself a problem. Neocons have a problem. They’re flaccid.
I think it’s SACEUR, but that’s a guess. In any case, there is nothing State, CIA, or USFPE can do about Iran beyond, again, conducting terrorist operations. She got no force.
Whenever one writes “color revolution,” one is writing “CIA” and “Neocon.”
Guess who is peddling the WMD lie once again?
America is openly threatening to use military force to stop the development of Iraqi … I mean Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction.
U.S. Willing to Use Military to Stop Iran From Getting Nuclear Weapon
https://www.newsweek.com/us-willing-use-military-stop-iran-getting-nuclear-weapon-1755837
@ xvfsb on December 01, 2022 · at 12:46 pm EST/EDT
Pénz beszél, a kutya ugat, a karaván halad.”
“Money talks, the dogs bark, but the caravan goes on.”
————————————————————————
Too little, too late.
Iran is now protected by Russia/China, plus, they have their own arsenal, short of nuclear weapons, but close to.
It is too late to be threatening Iran, regardless, the dogs will keep barking, that’s what dogs do.
Currently, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has the Doomsday Clock at 100 minutes to midnight. Attacking Iran will set us up at 1 second to midnight, as Russia and China will infer they are next.
Let them bark, the caravan goes on, moving eastward at hypersonic speed.
https://m.vz.ru/politics/2022/12/1/1189237.html
Moscow creates a new international geometry
——————————————————————
Lone Wolf
Correction, the Doomsday Clock is now at 100 seconds to midnight, which is uncharacteristically realistic of them.