by Observer R for the Saker Blog
BACKGROUND
In December 2021, Russia delivered two letters to the United States concerning the Security Architecture of Europe—commonly known as the “Not-Ultimatum.” The United States provided a written response to Russia in January 2022. This response was kept secret at the request of the United States. However, the Russian foreign minister announced that the response only covered secondary items and did not address the main points of NATO expansion and offensive missile placement. Russia had previously announced that if a satisfactory response was not received, then Russia would be forced to resort to unspecified “military-technical” measures. The great game among analysts is guessing the actual nature of those measures. These guesses range all over the possibilities, from the idea that Russia is bluffing and will have to back down, to various shooting-war scenarios. A Russian high official mentioned that the outcome might be another Cuban Missile Crisis, so this factor is common thread in the analyses. Another common thread is that Russia might be planning to wind up the war in Syria by arranging to extend Syrian government control over the entire country. In other words, to get the Turks, Americans, Israelis, and other countries not invited by Syria, to pack up and go home. A third thread is the question of war in Ukraine, where the US is insisting that Russia is poised to invade, while the Ukraine government is trying to downplay the war fever. There are other possible “military-technical” measures that are less common in the analyses, as well as some rare multidimensional chess schemes.
CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS II
Many years ago, the US moved intermediate range missiles into Turkey and Italy, aimed at the Soviet Union. The Soviets did not appreciate this action, so they proceeded to move their similar missiles into Cuba. The result was a huge uproar and end-of-world hysteria, but the US quietly withdrew its missiles and the Soviets turned around and also took their missiles back home. The two countries learned their lesson and proceeded to negotiate arms-control agreements. Fast forward a half-century and the US decided to try the same maneuver again by moving weapons closer and closer to the Russian border while ditching many of the arms-control agreements. The Russians were not amused and suggested that Russia might move weapons closer to the US border in response. In addition, the president of Russia had some long discussions with the presidents of Cuba and Venezuela, which sparked more speculation that something was afoot. At the same time, elections in Nicaragua resulted in a president that the US disliked and led to some US sanctions. Some pundits recalled that there has long been a proposal for China to build a competitive canal across Nicaragua and that it would be natural for China to place military forces at both ends of the canal to protect it from any eventualities.
Analysts generally downplayed the idea of Russia building bases on land in Cuba, as it would take time, they would be sitting ducks, and the supply lines would be very long and unprotected. However, the US bases near Russian borders are in the same exposed position. So it would be more of a standoff and stalemate. The former president of Russia poured cold water on the idea of bases in Cuba or Venezuela. Many analysts thought that Russian navy ships with missiles would be a better way to locate near Cuba, where they could visit Cuban harbors. Another widely held idea among analysts was that Russian submarines off the US coasts in the Atlantic and the Pacific with exotic weapons would be enough to take care of things, so there was no need to get involved with Cuba or Venezuela.
UKRAINE THEATRE
The US, along with the UK and Poland, has been promoting the idea that Russia is building up forces along the Ukraine border in order to invade Ukraine and overthrow the government. The mainstream press has gone heavily into supporting this scenario, but recently things have come unstuck. The US president had a phone conversation with the Ukraine president and tried to convince him that a Russian invasion was imminent. The Ukraine president had a different take on it and claimed that invasion fears were overblown and the excitement was bad for business and the economy. Back at the time of the 2014 color revolution, China had been very busy promoting investment in Ukraine, especially in the agricultural area. This was one reason that the president of Ukraine at the time was leaning toward China and Russia, as it seemed that they were offering a better economic deal for Ukraine, which sorely needed such help. This tilt toward the East was obviously against the wishes of the West, which wanted to keep Ukraine resources from aiding China or Russia. The same thing is happening again, as the current Ukraine president is desperate for economic assistance and has been turning to China for help. As a result, analysts have been writing long articles about the US planning to get rid of the Ukrainian president and replace him with someone who will tilt to the West. The US would not be much bothered if Ukraine became a failed state, as long as NATO forces could be based there with weapons pointed at Russia. The populace of Ukraine would likely have a different view, and the current president was elected overwhelmingly by the people who wanted some peace, progress, and prosperity. In 2014, the Ukraine president lost control of the country to the anti-Russian fighters and he fled to Russia. The US then put in a hand-picked candidate as president. It looks like the same script may be in motion.
Since the Ukraine war situation is heating up again, there are some points that could use additional attention. A common scenario is that the Ukraine army will attack the separatists in Donbass and thereby succeed in drawing Russia into the war in order to protect the separatists. This action would supposedly validate what the US has been saying all along. It would allow the US to portray Russia as the aggressor and cause the US and Europe to place heavy sanctions on Russia and at the same time bog Russia down in a quagmire in Ukraine. A contrasting scenario is that Russia would use standoff weapons located in Russia to fracture and destroy the Ukraine war machine, without actually crossing the border. Mop-up action on the ground would be accomplished by the separatist fighters.
This brings up the questions of what weapons the separatists actually have and what training they have received. Is it possible that Russia has transferred one or more S-400 air defense systems to the separatists and trained their troops to operate the systems? It is in the news recently that Russia has begun the transfer of S-400 systems to India, and Russia previously transferred the S-400 to Turkey. So why not to the separatists in Ukraine? If the S-400 is as good as advertised, and the operators are sufficiently trained, the Kiev government air force would have little success in the Donbass area.
Russia has had approximately seven years to assist the separatists in beefing up their defensive capability, including missiles and ground force weapons. In addition, Russia has had the same seven years to develop proxy forces and mercenaries to assist the separatists—so the Russian armed forces may not even have to get directly involved. A third question is just how interested is the regular Ukrainian military in getting into a war where the opponents are backed by Russian weapons and tactics? In other words, are the regular Ukrainian troops really wanting to get killed trying to take back renegade provinces, or might they lie low as much as possible and let any true believers die first? Presumably, the Ukrainian generals have been receiving messages through the grapevine concerning the future prospects of said Ukrainian generals and their armies if they start a big war. Those prospects do not appear good. Furthermore, the more knowledgeable officials in the Ukraine government may lie awake nights thinking about what would happen if the politicians ordered a major attack on the separatists and major portions of the Ukraine military declined to carry it out. In such a situation the result could be a military coup, a regime change, and a whole lot of officials losing their jobs. After all, military coups are “standard operating procedure” (SOP) in many crises—is there any evidence that Ukraine is exempt from this possibility?
SYRIA AND WEST ASIA
Another focus of thought concerning possible “military-technical” measures that could be taken by Russia is the situation in Syria and surrounding countries. While the Russians entered Syria in 2015 to keep the government in power, Russia has not gone so far as to enable Damascus to regain control over the entire country. The forces supported by Turkey are in Idlib, the US-supported forces are in the Northeast corner oil fields, and Israel has been able to drop bombs and missiles on Syria without any real penalty. There have been many questions as to why Russia puts up with the actions of Turkey and Israel and just as many different answers. So far, Russia has turned a blind eye to the US proxies taking oil from Syria and transporting it to Iraq. This practice may be changing, as Russia and Syria have begun joint air patrols around the border of Syria, effectively stopping the incursions by Israel. In addition, Russia has placed military police in the main port in Syria, after Israel attacked it, hunting for supplies from Iran to the resistance fighters in Lebanon. It would be very dangerous for any country to drop a bomb and hit the Russians. In a third blow to Israel, Russia has begun allowing Iranian planes carrying weapons supplies to land at the large Russian base in western Syria. So presumably, in addition to dealing with Israel, Russia could also turn up the heat on Turkey and the US to get out of Syria.
It looks like Russia has decided to come off the fence in other ways by inviting the new Iran president to Moscow and giving him the celebrity treatment and developing a munificent support agreement between the two countries. This gesture, along with making Iran a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the recent joint naval exercise with Iran, Russia and China in the Gulf of Oman, indicate Iran’s coming-of-age in international affairs and the role of the East. In a further blow to Israel, the US ceased support for the EastMed pipeline which was to transport natural gas from Israel to Cyprus/Greece. This is in line with some signals that Turkey is trying to tilt back toward the West, since Turkey was strongly opposed to the pipeline due to squabbles over who has rights to gas in the Med. Another area where Russia could try a military-technical effort is the war in Yemen. It seemed to be winding down as the UAE was pulling out of the conflict and both the UAE and Saudi Arabia were negotiating with Iran to settle differences. Then the war flared up with more bombing by the Saudis, and UAE proxies reentering the battle against the Sanaa government forces in Marib. One thing led to another and the Sanaa forces bombed the UAE and threatened even more attacks. The US responded by advising all Americans to avoid the UAE. This would appear to rankle the chiefs in the UAE, since this advice will greatly hamper visits by tourists and business folk, plus cause trouble for the UAE airline. Especially odd, since analysts assume that the US was the instigator of the renewed military push by UAE in Yemen. In any event, UAE got the message and the UAE proxies announced that they were “repositioning” their forces and pulling out of Marib province in Yemen. Following these actions, the situation became even more confused when Sanaa attacked the UAE forces in Shabwah province. Then news broke that Sanaa had attacked the UAE again, at the same time as the president of Israel was visiting. There are conflicting reports as to what happened next. Regardless, the war on Yemen by the US, Saudis, and UAE can only be annoying to China, Russia and Iran, who are trying to promote the New Silk Roads and other transport routes in that area. Perhaps the Russians and the Chinese are considering a message to the Saudis that they cease the war on Yemen.
MULTIDIMENSIONAL CHESS?
So there are many differing guesses and opinions as to what the “military-technical” measures by Russia might turn out to be in real life. Analysts like to say that the US plays checkers, while Russia plays chess. There are still more possible measures that have received little or no publicity that provide food for thought. Some of these are less military or at least are military in a different way.
FRACTIONATING NATO
The talk of war in Ukraine has caused NATO to develop significant cracks in its body politic. A number of countries have stated that they will not send troops to Ukraine, or will pull their troops out of NATO if the war starts. Other countries are preventing the shipment of arms to Ukraine, while others are busy providing such armaments. It is clear that the US is losing control of the situation and the NATO members on the continent are not enamored with the Anglo approach to Ukraine. A key actor is Germany, which has prevented arms shipments to Ukraine through its territory and takes a dim view of possible sanctions on Russia or China. US pressure on Germany to stop the Nordstream2 pipeline and talk about removing Russia from the SWIFT money transfer system run counter to the German national interest. The political scene inside Germany is very discordant and the nation is having a problem coming up with a coherent strategy. Witness the head of the German navy being fired for speaking about reasoned measures for dealing with Russia, and the letter by 40 retired important persons calling for changes in policy. What nobody wants to talk about in public is the question of exactly what is NATO protecting Germany from? The Russians want to sell gas to Germany and buy German automobiles. The Americans are preventing Germany from seeking out the most beneficial trades and trading partners. One of China’s New Silk Roads has its terminus in Germany. The prospects are for Germany to become a natural gas hub and a rail container freight hub for Europe. These prospects appears better than having to buy higher priced LPG from the US and transporting it across the Atlantic Ocean, or losing out on being the terminus of the New Silk Road. Russia’s Not-Ultimatum has turned up the heat on the German establishment to decide which fork in the road they should follow. The pressure is on Germany to become more like a non-aligned country and to do business deals with all three powers: China, Russia and the US. NATO is only getting in the way. Using the game analogy, at the checkerboard the US & Russia are playing NATO expansion into Ukraine or NATO return to the 1997 boundary. Simultaneously, at the chessboard the US & Russia are playing the breakup of NATO into little pieces, with NATO following the Warsaw Pact into the dustbin of history.
OUN
The Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) was a political movement prior to and during WWII working to gain independence for Ukraine. Perhaps the most prominent head of the organization was Stepan Bandera. The Wikipedia entry for Bandera notes that he was a revolutionary, was both a Nazi collaborator and spent time in a German concentration camp, and was later assassinated by the Soviet KGB in 1959. In addition, Wikipedia also notes that he was promoting ethnic cleansing of Poles, Jews, and Russians. Bandera came back into prominence in Ukraine when the president of Ukraine awarded him the honor of Hero of Ukraine in 2010. Major controversy erupted and the Ukraine courts annulled the award in 2011 on the grounds that Bandera was not eligible. Nevertheless, the memory of Bandera had many supporters who were formed in paramilitary armed bands. These groups were some of the main supporters of the color revolution that overthrew the government of Ukraine in 2014. They went on to become an important part of the new government and the military forces. These latter-day OUN disciples gained the label “neo-Nazi” for their political views, their use of flags and symbols similar to the ones used by the Nazis, and their promotion of Bandera. This resurgence and rehabilitation of Bandera and the OUN is considered an insult by those groups that had been subject to ethnic cleansing. The Russians, especially, could only view the neo-Nazis revival as a direct attack on the memory of the Soviet peoples’ sacrifice in WWII to free the land from the Nazis. This has added a highly inflammatory element to the relations between Ukraine and Russia. It hasn’t helped Russia’s relations with the West, either, to have the West use neo-Nazis to overthrow the East-leaning Ukrainian government and replace it with one leaning to the West. In addition, Russia has been holding a March of the Immortals on Victory Day each year, where the participants hold up pictures of the relatives who died in the Great Patriotic War. The neo-Nazi counter-marches in Ukraine are likely to build animosity that will probably not end well. These factors could have an important, but not immediately evident, influence on Russian policy. At the checkerboard the US & Russia play concerning OUN revival is muted; at the chessboard the odds are that Russia is busy mapping strategy; we just have to wait and see.
KAZAKHSTAN PRECEDENT
A few commentors have suggested that the very recent Kazakhstan episode might serve as a precedent for action in Ukraine. In early 2022, Kazakhstan was beset by demonstrations and riots ostensibly due to a sudden increase in the price of motor fuel. Independent observers generally opined that it more closely resembled a typical color revolution going by the playbook. In any event, the government was having trouble controlling the situation and therefore appealed to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to send help. The president of CSTO approved the request and within a few days an impressive military force had been airlifted to Kazakhstan and the soldiers proceeded to secure the important buildings and locations in the country. The loyal Kazakhstan forces were freed up to put down the rebellion/co up attempt and thousands of the perpetrators were arrested, along with many high-ranking officials. Analysts guessed that the CSTO had learned of the coup plans ahead of time and had already prepared to be asked to intervene. The intervention went off like clockwork and the CSTO forces started leaving after a week and were gone in a few days. The events began the same way as those in Ukraine at the time of the color revolution there in 2014, but then the events deviated from the script. The president of Kazakhstan did not flee, but called for support and proceeded to out-maneuver his opponents. The result was the opposite of Ukraine, where the US came out on top. In Kazakhstan, it was Russia, China and Iran who came out holding the winning ticket.
The commentors note that many stories have appeared to suggest that the US is tired of the current president of Ukraine and may be planning another color revolution to get rid of him. There is also the notion that the neo-Nazis are a major hindrance in the president’s ability to pull Ukraine out of its downward spiral into a failed-state. With the US, other NATO members, oligarchs, and the neo-Nazis trying to end his career, it might be that the president is considering calling up the CSTO to ask for support. The thinking being that it might help him and his regular army generals keep their jobs and pensions and solve a raft of problems for Russia, China, and most especially for the populace of Ukraine. At the checkerboard the US is playing its color revolution strategy, while Russia seems to be mostly lost in thought; at the chessboard the Kazakhstan precedent would definitely be an unusual and surprising move.
The Syrian stuff you mention should’ve been done regardless of future military technical.
Russia will receive all the Goodwill in the Region for the next 100 years from The Axis of Resistance/Peoples if they free Syria of US/Israeli/Turk Vermin.
I concur with your comment. Russia’s goodwill in the Middle-East will last for decades to come. Muslims have prophecy that mentions one Christian nation will come to their aid in liberating Jerusalem at the endtimes before the return of Prophet Jesus (peace and blessings f God Almighty be upon him and his Blessed Mother, Mary).
That Christian nation is resembling more and more like Russia from their positive actions, unlike US UK or EU.
1. Iran has now placed missiles in Syria on Russian base, where Israel cannot bomb
2. Russia has blocked GPS in Israeli airspace, causing problems with passenger flights. Israel aks Russia to stop, Russia says no.
Here is link which has the articles: https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/
I haven’t seen any other reports of the Iranian being allowed to shelter their missiles on the Russian airbase in Syria; is that site legit? It looks pretty sensational.
the jamming seems to be legit
https://www.timesofisrael.com/russian-jammer-in-syria-said-to-cause-interference-with-flights-to-israel/
the thing with the rockets i couldnt confirm either, but tbh i have heard such things already mid jan as rumors.
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-russia-jamming-g-p-s-in-israeli-airspace-refuses-to-stop
nice, stage one on the Pain Dail is activated. deter IAF to bomb Syrian.
and that it causes “problems” with Civil air traffic is overrated. it causes “inconvenience” for them but they are trained to not relay on GPS during landing anyways.
None of the NATO nations can be described as Christian.
I am well aware of our Islamic prophecy of a party of christians allied with muslims is liberating Palestine (Al Quds) but I have my doubts if its going to be Russians……but pretty sure that they will be eastern orthodox christians, That as it may be; The current political establishment I Russia seems to well in control of the jew money lenders state.
Yes indeed,never understood the Russin game plan,those oil convoys should have been incinerated from the air all the time,and Israel should be put on notice,also the offensive on Idlib should not have been halted two years ago to accomodate that Turkish lunatic.
“the president is considering calling up the CSTO to ask for support.”
Doubtful. First, Ukraine is not a member of the CSTO. Second, it takes time (if only a few hours as Kazakhstan proved) to get help from the CSTO. Long before them, someone would shoot Zelensky as a “traitor” (unless he was out of the country at the time, in which someone else would seize his office.) So that scenario is not going to happen.
All scenarios at this point are speculative and not worth much time considering. Putin is a high black belt in judo. He’s not going to do the obvious. He will do what he said he would do, which at the moment is limited to a Russian reaction if Donbass is attacked. The only question is how extensive that reaction will be.
But isn’t that military-technical measure opportunity that the failed nation US is looking for to engage Russia in a war to distract it’s subjects internally, who are so divided today…not to mention the revolt against Covid mandates.
‘Not a member’ doesn’t mean they can’t ask for help. It would be a bold move and is likely the only way Zelenski can save his skin as both the US and the ukie nazis are fed up with him. Even though it’s not likely it’s lovely to consider.
As far as speculation goes why not? It’s chess at a grand scale with severly mismatched opponents. This is the most riveting entertainment going.
There is a lot of talk about Russian military bases in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, and how unlikely that is. What no one mentions is that Russia could instead sell weapons to these countries (possibly at subsidized prices). Even older systems like S-300 could significantly change the balance of power in the region.
The recent episode where Russian naval exercises were announced off the southern Irish coast, overlapping Irelands exclusive economic zone is one such ‘military technical” measure that brought positive result and was great PR.
First Simon Coveney{Irish foreign and defence}minister fulminated about this announcement “not being welcome in view of Ukraine and the coming “Russian invasion”.
Next, some representatives of the Irish fishermen who fish these waters visited the Russian ambassador, who agreed to relay their concerns to the President.
Following that Simon Coveney had a meeting {must have been a zoom call} with Sergei Shoigu,interesting images spring to mind.
Then Simon Coveney announces, having shown himself to be useless as the fishermen did his job for him announced that following this meeting the Russian exercises had been moved south to accommodate the fishermen.
Coveney was quoted on the Sunday times as “warning against self fulfilling prophecies on Ukraine”
Victory for military technical measures without any diesel being used.
I heard Captain Ahab turned up on Moby Dick’s back and ordered the vessels to heel or was it Liz Truss riding on Boris Johnson’s back. Same difference I suppose.
Boris has more blubber and is much less aggressive.
A military coup / regime change should be the best solution, but it would also be necessary to neutralize the SBU and all other “special forces” that report directly to the western “masters”. This is possible ?
Interesting. All the talk about strategic moves in Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, etc., but nothing about Brasil. As a 4-star arm-chair strategist, I would expect more attention be paid to Latin America´s biggest prize. Surely, the mineral, agricultural and geo-strategic resources of this continental-scale country must be occupying more thought-space of the real decision-makers than that of this blog, at least for now.
^^;;^^
Morcegão
Cuba is adjacent to the straits which are a choke point for maritime traffic headed to/from the port of New Orleans, which is where there is a huge port at the mouth of the Mississippi River. So it’s strategic value is enormous because of its geography.
Venezuela has more oil than Saudi Arabia, just waiting to be tapped and brought to market for the next decades.
Nicaragua sits on land which is suitable for construction of a canal from the pacific to the Atlantic, bypassing the Panama Canal.
These three are politically aligned at a formal level, and form the core of the main example of Latin American socialism. This political entity in some form or another has maintained decades of friendly relations with Russia, even when times were most tense. Those three countries and their political supporters across Latin America have a ton to offer Russia that Brazil doesn’t.
What can Brazil offer?
A lot, potentially.
But Brazil would have to either play second fiddle to Cuba + Venezuela & Friends or offer Russia more than them, which seems unlikely. Russia needs strategic leverage in military and energy domains, and that’s what that bloc has to offer. Brazil can offer bananas, coffee, mangos, tobacco, and other exports to Russia – those don’t grow in Russia.
Other than that I don’t know. I’m no expert on Russia-Brazilian relations, let alone the details of their economies to be able to figure what they could offer Russia, or vice versa.
what the media and cinema of the empire did not let the world know, is that 1/3 of Brazil is made up of Germans, Poles, Italians and Japanese. Nothing in Latin America has that expression. Brazil is neither Argentina nor Mexico. That means skilled labor, etc. Why did Putin invite Bozo Bolsonaro to visit Moscow? Because the director of the CIA, the US Secretary of State, etc. visit Brazil? The pre-salt oil discovered in the world is one of the largest in the world, and there is more to discover. Countless gold and diamonds are hidden near the Amazon region, and Brazil is the second largest agricultural production on the planet. Those who went to the 2014 football cup discovered that Brazil has been no longer the land of monkeys and coconut water for 30 years. Sao Paulo has the highest number of skyscrapers on the planet, more than New York. Military technical measures will include all of Latin America.
Brazil also has most of the world’s niobium, which is a key metal for the green economy
Brazil is the industrial power-house of South America. They make airplanes, ships, vehicles, and armaments. This is manufacturing from the ground-up, not merely assembly. Lula had the country going in the direction of general prosperity, until the U$ assisted judicial coup got him out of office. The current ‘president’ is reilly only interested in oligarchic enrichment.
O Brasil não tem nada a oferecer a si mesmo quanto mais aos outros. Pelo menos não numa relação entre iguais. É um território vasto e rico a ser saqueado e sobre o qual vive uma população completamente alienada que não tem a mínima noção do que seja autodeterminação, estado nacional e qualquer coisa que lhe dê uma identidade além de futebol e carnaval. É um território que, assim como a ucrânia, está a caminho da fragmentação enquanto o estado nacional se dissolve a olhos vistos. Depois do golpe de 2016, o mais recente da série que os eua patrocinou, o império pôs em marcha um plano que tem por objetivo inviabilizar o estado nacional brasileiro e lotear seu território entre as corporacoes, tanto para a exploração agrícola como para mineração. Fala-se na perspectiva da reeleição do Lula mas dificilmente ele conseguirá reverter esse processo de insolvência. Lula é um político carismático mas que não tem a energia e nem a alcance para dar a guinada que nos tire da rota para o abismo. Além dele também não há ninguém com com qualificação para fazer as profundas e necessárias mudança que o brasil precisa, tanto no que diz respeito as medidas político administrativas como e principalmente na mentalidade dos brasileiros.
Muito verdadeira sua colocação.
A ida de Bolsonaro a Rússia ,agora em Fevereiro nos dirá para onde vão soprar os ventos.
———-
Machine translation:
Your post is very true.
Bolsonaro’s trip to Russia, now in February, will tell us where the winds are going to blow.
“Outra área onde a Rússia poderia tentar um esforço técnico-militar é a guerra no Iêmen”… O presidente Putin ODEIA os houtis desde que os mesmos se lLIVRARAM de Saleh !
Google translation,MOD:
“Another area where Russia could attempt a military-technical effort is the war in Yemen”…President Putin HATES the Houthis since they GET RID of Saleh!
Defending crypto Jews UAE/Saudi is a pastime of Leonid (The Slut ) Slutsky , Chairman of International Affairs Committee, DUMA, a former right-hand man of Putin, who distinguished himself in 2018 by rubbing up female press (removed language,MOD).
The best Russia could do is to STFU if they want to turn a blind eye to the WAR CRIMES of UAE, even grabbing coastal Yemeni resorts to entertain wealthy Israelis and Other Undesirables.
We thank God for the Islamic Republic of Iran who stand by their Brothers in Arms.
Send a few SSBNs to cruise on the surface and circumnavigate the coastlines of all NATO countries, just outside their territorial waters. Call it a freedom of navigation exercise.
Exactly; this would be shocking and recalibrating. There might be an occasion for an overflight demonstration of a Zirkon traveling from the Mediterranean Sea to some destination north.
Are there not 50 icebreakers defending freedom of navigation of the NSP from Mother Nature? But then, 50 icebreakers does not get the attention of the west. It takes something like a few nuclear subs, then they get clozapine injection time hysterical, with probably nothing in between.
Remember the hysteria when some ships of the Northern Fleet passed through the North Sea en route to the Mediterranean and Syria. Cue much hyperventilating from Sid Scurvy, Ace Reporter of the Daily Bugle.
A good summary of the various theatres. On the topic of the Cuban missile crisis i will just add that one of the negotiators on the US side, took all of 70 years before he went public and confessed that the Russians had been in the right all along. I read Kruschevs letter to the Kennedys and it was concillatory, full of good reasoning and common-sense. The Kennedys were devious and backstabbing towards Russia as they created the imagery that the Russians had backed down and the USA was “helping Russia to avoid losing face” when in reality it was the exact reverse. Kruschev had many of the same cautious traits that are ‘blamed’ on Putin today (apart from the less cultured banging of the shoe on the podium).
I recall that the US did not remove the missiles from Turkey. They said they did but they did not…they just deactivated them. The current nuclear missiles that sit in Incirlik (discovered by the Turks after they attempted coup on Erdogan) are not operational as there are no compatible aircraft available to deliver these missiles. Just as well…
The stuff sitting in Italy, Romania and Bulgaria are more of a threat to Russia.
Today the Poseidon system is just as effective as a M.A.D threat against the US…The subs run independent of any fixed base, undetectable, can pop up for photo-opportunities when needed and then vanish into the depths…
I tend to disagree with the views of many commenters on this website that ‘All Ukrainians now hate Russia due to all the propaganda” – a good analogy on the principle is that 80 million Germans were accused of “supporting the Nazis” whilst when the Allied control Commission staff moved into Germany, they soon understood that only 10% were die-hard fanatics, 30% were opportunists who went along with the system as they felt they could benefit..20% were enthused at first but went quiet after the gestapo widened its activities and 40% were keeping very quiet at all times so as not to end up in the concentration camps themselves.
I also disagree that the Ukrainians can remove / change their government themselves. The sniper activity at the Maidan and gradual impoverishment, has intimidated any further attempt. Like with WW2, the change has to ‘sweep in’ from outside and then the local population gains more courage to do more active resistance..
I will also say that Russia could have been far more proactive over recent years in most theatres. Whilst i understand the reasoning that Russia first needed to build up a force-mass, Russia already always had overwhelming deterrent capabilities and could have done more to assist all the various nationalist forces that needed support from outside…so what was really gained, was courage.. I tend to disagree with the notion that Russia has had “no reason or need to support other smaller states that would just be a drain on Russia.” Part of the imagery of a benevolent superpower is the ability to support smaller states against the bigger bullies like USA. UK and France…spreading socialist ideology was a powerful weapon in of itself against the 3 feudal empire states. Russia could have sold a lot more AK47s and other hardware ….but anyway…better late than never…
I mean…if the Americans can just send a cookie-monster to Kiev and create so much change…imagine how much more the Russians could have achieved, when Russia speaks the same language as the Ukraine…Many of my Ukrainian friends long for the moment when Russia helps to force out the western influence.
@Analyst: Only “10% were die-hard fanatics”
And the remaining 90% were mere opportunists, fellow travellers and cowards. The banality of evil.
“I also disagree that the Ukrainians can remove / change their government themselves.” Ditto.
This applies to any community under a bad regime. It is the main problem of good government, and no type of government has solved it.
“I also disagree that the Ukrainians can remove / change their government themselves.”
That is equally true of the UK.
I empathise with your comments but only because i also thought like this when i was younger. I thought it was entirely appropriate to ascribe ‘collective guilt’ to the whole German population. But having observed societies and human behaviour …and frailties….over more decades, i cannot now, see it in black and white terms…
Why? well, Margaret Thatcher lived just one mile away from me…Tony Blair was in 10 Downing Street, just 6 miles from me…i certainly felt it appropriate for us citizens to have a hangmans rope ready…was i a coward for not taking matters into my own hands? were my neighbours who were equally angry at the psychopaths running the show, also cowards? Are the young men who are so uneducated that they end up in the British Army, which trains them and educates them…and then sends them to war, to do something which their own moral judgment tells them is totally wrong…and then these young men are committing suicide…instead of turning their anger and trained skills to murder the Nomenklatura which sent them to these illegal wars? This is currently the situation in the UK and in the USA, where there are apparently more suicides in the militaries than combat deaths, in any one year…Are these soldiers cowards for simply following orders?
So i cannot condemn the German population too strongly. Their enthusiasm for getting themselves out of their low point was so strong that they realised too late how they were misled….
There was an incident towards the end of WW2 when the British Army, i believe it was in the Hamm Pocket, was asked by the Wehrmacht to stand down, as they themselves wanted to eliminate a group of SS troops and the British Army readily agreed to this situation…unusual? we think it is unusual but in reality, the German population was simply in the grip of a totalitarian terror and given the chance, many did respond decently.
Another way of putting it is, that it only took 30,000 Gestapo to intimidate 80 million…the experience of a Soviet Soldier who organised a breakout from the Bialystock concentration camp was a simple one…he calculated correctly that as there were actually only some 25 guards in total, the 600 prisoners there, had a good chance to escape…they all gained courage…and 50% escaped…50% were killed…
With these examples, can one condemn those who lacked the courage to change the system from within…or praise the – dead – heroes who did have the courage?
It may be that the (Jupiter) missiles were not removed, but I doubt it, as I have eye witness confirmation from a enlisted member of crew of DD escort that brought them (escorted the transports) from Turkey to US. Everybody was sworn to extrasuperdooperspecialsecrecy, which was a total fubar, obviously. It’s worth noting that (Dark Side of Camelot) claim Kennedy was under the influence of injected stimulants and steroids all through his lived term and specifically during the Missile Affair, and that nobody in the Kennedy group with JCS and etc thought that the Soviets had atomics ready in Cuba…and Kennedy was the only guy who stopped the process…arguably it cost both Khrushchev and Kennedy their jobs, rather messy the way they fired Jack though…
” but I doubt it,”
Very wise, which should be a constant practice for all, since there are many other false assertions within Analyst on January 31, 2022 · at 10:31 pm EST/EDT and Analyst on February 01, 2022 · at 9:08 pm EST/EDT possibly based on the assumption that some others have not enjoyed the benefit of accessing and validating sources over many years.
Some continue to understand that the illusions of others have utilities in useful fooleries, and rendering others useful fools is not only better manners but reduces the numbers of cadavers that could poison the water supply.
A relevant area of continued relevance which “Analysts” like the opponents “misinterpreted/persilscheined” after 1945, was/is the complicity of the populations of the Greater Reich in the facilitation of the Greater Reich during the period from 1933 until late 1944 to incorporate “West Germany/FDR” into the “West” whilst Austria was later rendered non-aligned with the agreement of “The Soviet Union”.
Similar “misinterpretations” were made in respect of those populations who resided in Belgium and The Netherlands during the period from 1940 until 1944 also in order to facilitate “The West”.
In the period from 1933 until 1944 the Greater Reich was rendered possible with the complicity of the majority of the population, and from 1933 until 1939 policing was affected primarily by those who had served in the Weimar police and to a lot smaller degree by constructs of the “National Socialist State” including the Gestapo which was always smaller in the Greater Reich, than the complement of the “normal” police services.
The organising ideology of the Greater Reich was the Volksgemeinschaft from which communists, criminals, the disabled/mentally ill, Jewish people and Romani people were progressively excluded/culled.
Until 1944 members of the Volksgemeinschaft were under little hazard from the “Nationalist Socialist State” since they believed that they were the “National Socialist State” and enjoyed many benefits to sustain that belief, and hence the policing of the “National Socialist State” enjoyed the addition of the Volksgemeinschaft in carrying out their functions including but not limited to informing on those not deemed to be members of the Volksgemeinschaft, who may also have had a nice apartment or an attractive partner, as was also the case in “The Soviet Union”.
This is also a component part of how “The United States of America” is facilitated and to some degree resort to it-wasn’t-me-it-was-my-sister will not be believed by others which the opponents may use as some point, as did Mr. Goebbels and others from March 1943 onwards, to encourage we-are-all-in-this-togetherness.
“I doubt it”
Two of the most relevant “qualities” required to be an analyst are, a sense of doubt and a sense of the ridiculous, which some translate as intellectual rigour and scepticism, which are no longer prevalent in many “intelligence services”.
The title of the article is “Waiting for the military-technical ” which some translate as “Waiting for Godot” since he is unlikely to appear, and even if he does appear, you will not necessarily understand that he/it/she/they has appeared – an observation made previously by Mr. Escobar.
Another example of this is to be found in https://consortiumnews.com/2022/02/01/ukraine-guides-to-reflection/ including in the comments section.
Enjoy your journey.
” Part of the imagery “…… but not the practice for different purposes.
The opponents play charades, whilst some cooperate with others to enhance facilities of all, to enable their joint developing cooperative interchanges.
The Russian Federation is not facilitating a NATO clone or a “Marshall Plan” where after the invoice is sent with a short delay/credit/grace period.
Thank for your assumptions in emulation of those constitution donators who sought to “protect” Russia from the end of history by carrying the white man’s burden in emulation of others.
” … are the regular Ukrainian troops really wanting to get killed trying to take back renegade provinces, or might they lie low as much as possible and let any true believers die first? Presumably, the Ukrainian generals have been receiving messages through the grapevine concerning the future prospects of said Ukrainian generals and their armies if they start a big war”.
No, Ukrainian conscripts are not interested in waging war against Russia, since both they and Russians are Orthodox Slavs. A few years back the police in Kiev had to raid night clubs to arrest and drag conscripts into the military. You do not start a war using such human material. As for Ukrainian generals, I think the Russian military is in touch with them. How many of them really want to fight Russia ? Also, a few years ago the Donbass Russians stated that they were in touch with front line Ukrainian troops, who were advised and who agreed to surrender in case of war. This, of course, could be a bluff, but I would not be surprised if it was true.
Finally, it would appear that Zelensky is getting cold feet. He told Biden not to dramatize events, ie. state that Russia is about to invade. Zelensky knows full well what the repercussions would be inside impoverished Ukraine if he started a war. He has no intention of becoming a fall guy for a catastrophic situation.
Thanks for the interesting added insights Mr P
B.F you are spot-on. When the Ukie military was rounding up conscripts, some 500,000 fled to the Hungarian and Slovak hills and took on small jobs for the Hungarians such as woodcutting, snail-catching (who knew that the biggest escargots sold in France traditionally came from the Tokay region of Hungary?), grape-harvesting. Seems the Ukie ‘military’ (really only an assembly of men funded by oligarchs) had no proper records of who lived where. Many Ukrainians had relatives in Poland and managed to claim residency there (surprised? – there are also Western Ukrainians who just want a peaceful life)…and on the eastern front-line, my Ukrainian friends reported that mothers ‘ordered’ their sons to go straight to safety in Russia at the first opportunity …truckloads of Ukrainian soldiers gunned their trucks straight for the Russian border and everyone jumped out and were taken to makeshift tent-cities, processed and given 3 choices: stay there temporarily until hostilities end…stay in Russia and get a temp work permit …or stay permanently and thus more or less immediately get a job and an apartment allocated.
And yes indeed…the US again makes the mistake of turning brother against brother…yes it poisons the ‘family’ relationship for a long time afterwards (we’ve seen it in Korea, Vietnam, east versus west Germany) but it is not irreconcilable. In my time living in Berlin, i got to know older east Germans who had supported Hitler in their youth, then became good communists and then had to become good capitalists again…most survived the ‘transitions’…some however committed suicide in the early 1990s as they could not adjust…
In other articles the topic of eastward expansion of NATO was mentioned. i witnessed the actual troop movements east during many business forays between Berlin and Hannover. One incident is still vivid in my memory – returning late towards Berlin and on the Autobahn, US troops were billetted on the roadside rest-stops and East Germans were attacking soldiers and the trucks with bottles and honking their horns to keep the Americans awake… I can assure you that the Russian troops stationed in East Germany never got this kind of treatment…NOT because Russia was a bigger threat…but because the East German population felt sorry for the Russian soldiers, who were living in very run-down former Nazi barracks…Today my east German friends support Russia fully…which is not always the case in the western part…
Here is an idea. Ze asked for CSTO to stop another illegitimate coup, “defend democracy” by putting down those supported by “foreign malign interference.”
When that is done it is the WESTERN Ukraine that can become an AUTONOMOUS region(s) and trade with the E.U., but only upon:
dropping all sanctions against Russia, not having universal jurisdiction and arresting foreigners or passing judgements against foreigners such, but not limited to, as Assange and Donbass militia members on trumped up politically motivated charges, dropping all such existing warrants, cases, and convictions, and remove all U.S./NATO weapons from post 1997 NATO states, and anything else I forgot to mention by signing treaties with the U.S. and E.U. (with a clause that exiting the treaty has the same requirements as entering into it) and NATO agreements to these effects.
PS: I somehow was not thinking of the fact that the West does not want Country General Protection Fault, especially the western portion, obviously. However, with a little bit of pointing out the obvious this (hopefully) would still work. If the West abandons western GPF, which they claim to care so much about, it is only because they will not agree to perfectly reasonable non-demands. The optics hopefully would not be good, at least in the East and South.
Perhaps western GPF can be as isolated as Iran (at least was) and just blame the West for anything bad that happens since all they have to do is just be reasonable. How about referring to it as Palestine 2.0?
Fine article Observer R. Thank you for a nice overview and summary.
We have to wait a little longer for the ‘military-technical’ response — if at all — , I think, although RF has made some moves, as mentioned in the article, that may be construed as a foretaste of the said response.
February 1. /TASS/. The United States has received Russia’s feedback on Washington’s proposals regarding security and de-escalation around Ukraine, a US Department of State spokesperson has told TASS.’
https://tass.com/world/1395623
They are still talking, which to me is a good sign.
At any rate ‘Russian President Vladimir Putin will express his view on the US and NATO response to Moscow’s proposals on security guarantees when he sees fit, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday.’ [Tass]
It must be frustrating for the Kremlin that much of what it wants from the Ultimatums gets subsumed by the Ukrainian issue. Indeed, in his speech to the UNSC, RF ambassador Vassily Nebenzia tried to delink the two issues ie RF-US talks and the Ukraine. [Tass]
The UNSC meeting on the “Situation along Russian Federation-Ukraine Border” was requested by the US in order to put the Ukraine front and centre. Naturally RF opposed convening the meeting but lost the vote, with Nebenzia saying — rightly — that ‘his delegation simply does not understand what the Council is attempting to discuss today.’
https://www.un.org/press/en/2022/sc14783.doc.htm
RF is not led by fools. It has gained the initiative since issuing the Ultimatums and more importantly it is maintaining that initiative. RF has lots of options for its response. Some of the the technical-military responses will be publicly known; some not. The RF leadership are deadly serious, especially when the security of RF is concerned, and I’ve no doubt they have ‘wargamed’ the possible responses thoroughly.
In case nobody noticed, I think RF has and is exercising its forces at the strategic-operational level — all those ships in the ‘World Ocean’, massive (logistically speaking) movement of troops and equipment east to west, exercises involving all military districts, live firings of missiles, the ‘Union Resolve’ exercise, etc. The only forces not exercised are the strategic nuclear forces, less subs (which are on duty patrol anyway) — concurrently exercising the SNF would be too much of course, with a high risk of being wrongly read by the professional military guys — people like newly-retired German naval chief Admiral Schonbach — in fUKUS/Nato.
Re: Ukraine conflict infowar
This is the culmination of decades of scripted reality television, where people think fiction is non-fiction and vice versa… The west will have no legs to stand on to claim they are innocent if and when something big happens, and it will all be their fault alongside those who partake and make money off of fake narrative garbage.
Nobody trusts western media already, this will be the death of western propaganda, unidentified military/defence contractor sources, acronym groups will be forced to go back to the drawing board and change tactics.
@Saker/mods – what’s the comment formatting? BBcode, Markdown?
“Russia and Syria have begun joint air patrols around the border of Syria, effectively stopping the incursions by Israel”.
Not really. As soon as the patrol has moved on, the way is clear for renewed Israeli attacks. Besides, the Israeli aircraft rarely enter Syrian air space, preferring to launch missiles from the Mediterranean or Lebanon. Moreover, in the past Israel has dared to fire missiles at Syria even when Russian aircraft were in the way – that was how the Russian IL-20M was accidentally shot down by Syrian air defences. Israel also deliberately launches attacks on Syria at exactly the times when civil airliners are in the area.
There are measures that would effectively discourage Israel from attacking Syria. If, for instance, Lebanon were to acquire powerful SAM batteries and the willingness to use them against aggressors. Any Israeli military aircraft trespassing on Lebanese air space should be shot down immediately.
For Ukraine to appeal to CSTO for military intervention would be quite different from the case of Kazakhstan, as the latter is a member of CSTO while the former is not. Even if the president of Ukraine were to make such an appeal, a CSTO intervention could easily be depicted as a hostile invasion and the president, if necessary, as a traitor.
Important Breaking News 01 Feb 2022:
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is today flying out to Ukraine to formalise increased economic and defence partnerships between the UK and Ukraine in light of unprecedented Russian Agression.
Formal statement from official UK Gov website:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-travelling-to-kyiv-in-demonstration-of-support-to-ukraine
There are also other reports that the UK is preparing to deploy 1000’s of “Trainers” and “Advisors” to Ukraine, including SBS (Special Forces component of the Royal Marines) and a British Warship to be crewed by Ukrainian Officer Cadets and Specialists for training in NATO systems.
Further shipments of “defensive” weapons are also apparently now being prepared as the UK prepares to formally assist Ukraine in “Military Technical Measures”.
An official announcement of military and technical support to Ukraine is expected to be made in Kyiv by UK Prime Minsiter Boris Johnson later today (01 feb 2022).
My guess is that a military alliance (SCO with more muscular strategic posture?) of Russia-China-Iran will soon be announced. Costs for the shared Cuban base would make it more viable and the long supply line would be protected by the threat of retaliation against US shipping elsewhere in the world. Think safe passage for Iran-Venezuela oil.
Poisedon may be cheaper and as effective strategically but is not seen by the American voter. Cuba is visible and thus the best strategy.
Russia is not viewed respectfully by the US regardless of her capabilities. A very large and capable SCO that built bases and infrastructure out to South America could create great trade opportunities and force the US to re-patriate nukes (on a reciprocal basis) without firing a shot or demonstrating a missile.
My belief that this will be the way forward is based on the fact that China is increasingly militant in its support of China, the various talks between the leaders that have been reported, and the fact that such a move seems so much more in tune with Putin and Xi’s peaceful philosophy.
The current SSBN weapons system in use by US and UK is Trident D5. Polaris was replaced by Poseidon in the late 70’s. I served aboard five SSBN’s in my 25 years in US Navy.
The Poseidon referred to is the Status 6 underwater drone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status-6_Oceanic_Multipurpose_System
I suspect that the author is European. If so, hence probably her or his focus on NATO and Ukraine as potential subjects for military-technical action by Russia. But action in neither sphere would be much of a problem for the USA, which cares little about European prosperity (Ms Nuland: “F^ck the EU”) and even less for Ukrainian survival as a nation state. I believe that whatever action the Russians take, when they take it, will be unambiguously aimed directly at the heart of USAmerican interests. Putin and Xi are soon to meet, and we know that it was the Chinese who invented fireworks.
Syria is likely because russia has legal standing to be there, and the US doesnt, and there are lots of US terrorist proxies stealing oil, and loitering in idlib
In the 1980s, deployment of the Soviet SS20 and the US Pershing II ushered in a new level of nuclear anxiety in Europe. Their flight times of 5-10 minutes was akin to having a loaded gun against your temple all the time. Millions of Europeans demonstrated for months/years until this treaty came into being. There was no military advantage to either side, a Mexican standoff, so no one gained, no one lost.
The situation has changed. The US pulled out of the INF treaty in 2019. According to US intel, the Russians have been testing Intermediate Range Hypersonic Missiles for some time. Given the Russian’s 3–5-year lead (if not more) in hypersonics, the Russian very likely have intermediate range maneuvering hypersonic missiles. They also have the world’s best anti air and anti-missile defensive systems in S400, S500, S550 and high-powered lasers (Peresvet). These systems, according to the Russian can engage hypersonic missiles with a high degree of success. They should know as they have the missiles to test their systems against.
If Russia really regards NATO expansion into Ukraine, Georgia, and other ex-Soviet republics as a “do or die” existential threat, one way to make European NATO countries wake up and smell the coffee is to deploy these IRHM to Western Russia. Russia’s world class missile defense system would offer sufficient protection from Western IRFM, if they had any, but they don’t and won’t for years. No longer a Mexican standoff. Now, these IRHM wouldn’t be a threat to the US because of range limitation. Will the Europeans see that their interest and US interest would now be deviating toward a life and death situation for Europeans. The pain and anxiety levels in Europe would go through the roof. To prevent this hypothetical nightmare for European NATO members, all Europe has to do is take control of their future and agree with the Russians, no more NATO expansion, remove US weapons from Europe. The above is one possible Military Technical response to NATO.
I tend to like what the Chinese do. They build mock targets that look to be enemy objects. They test their anti-ship missiles on mockups of US carriers.
So, get the Chinese pals to build a NATO headquarters mock up in the Siberian test range.
Then demonstrate how short a time it takes to obliterate said HQ.
Similar targets in London, Warsaw, Washington, can be built and used to send the military-technical message.
Also add targets of George Soros’ home and offices of the most virulent think tanks and NGOs.
The Chinese could erect these in a matter of 7-10 days.
Some times you have to hit the mule with a 2×4 to get its attention.
I feel pretty sure that the noise about some Russian and Chinese challenge to Monroe doctrine is just that, noise, a distraction from the real focus of Russian activity which is Ukraine. There it is clearly Russia’s plan “B”, that is ditching the Minsk II. rigmarole (which for the handlers of Kiev regime has always been anathema, and for France and Germany a diplomatic game of smoke and mirrors, accusing Russia of undermining it). Political re-federalization Ukraine is not going to happen because the country has already far advanced on a different track, that is, a sustained degradation of the Russian ethnics and their allies in depriving them of civil and language rights, and means of communication. The political structures of the Yanukovich era are gone, starting with his Party of Regions, but also with the regional administrations gutted of its native elements and their political alliances by the “lustration” laws. Clearly, Putin underestimated the dynamic, believing that this was just another “cycle” in domestic Ukrainian politics, which would cancel the EU/NATO fantasies, the way Yushchenko’s were ditched by a popular mandate in 2010. But, it has become clear to Kremlin, there is no chance for a rebound this time, since the regime has embarked on large internal political reorganizations which effectively cancel the country’s current demographics, and their political expression. The charges of “high treason” against Taras Kozak and Victor Medvedchuk, two members the Opposition Platform – For Life party in Verkhovna Rada, bespeak of a collapse of legitimate political process, and the regime’s utter disregard for the optics thereof. (Which in the West are zero anyhow, because the MSM is tigthly controlled by the woke-addled elites). I strongly believe, this is the immediate impetus for Russia’s decision to intervene. The danger for Russia is not primarily any formal membership of Ukraine in NATO – it is a de-facto NATO member already without the Article 5. protection. Russia will not allow a forcibly socially engineered, irreversibly hostile state of 44 million, on its western border.
@Soloview
Okay, so they ditch Minsk 2. That removes the internal choke bone that restricts Kiev. And that is your idea of Plan B?
Russia does that and what happens? Let me guess.
Kiev denazifies, sends a deep apology to Moscow, makes a full confession to the rapes, tortures, disappeared and murdered?
Sounds like a fantasy story not a plan.
Until forced to violate UNSC proscriptions on moving armaments into Ukraine in behalf of Donbass, Russia isn’t going to break the Minsk 2 Agreement. They aren’t even a signatory. They are enforcers of the Agreement as party to the UNSC endorsement of the Agreement.
Removing the one pressure point internally that keeps the Kiev lunatics from killing more people in Donbass means a final military solution to the separatists’ situation. Russia will have to ensure successful separation and independent status if Minsk 2 is gone.
What may be Russian hopes, that Kiev rejects Minsk 2, refuses EU insistence of holding to it, even breaks the US verbal support of Minsk 2, could be the preface to a final resolution by arms.
But, it will be a vast bloody war Russia doesn’t want. The Ukies have enough insane leaders in the government and security services to spread the war all over Ukraine, parts of Crimean Peninsula, even ignite the Belarus border. In a wide war, Russia will get losses it isn’t expecting now. A retreating army falling back to its western enclaves can inflict all kinds of losses on the pursuers. IEDs and mines, snipers and armed drones all present a war of a different kind. Then, it turns into an insurgency. West of the Dneiper River, there is massive support for a guerrilla war against Russians. And it will be heavily led and supplied by US and NATO special forces.
The Plan B won’t be to break Minsk 2 by Russian actions.
It will be to react if Minsk 2 is openly torn up by Kiev. A brief war begun by Kiev will begin. Russia will assist Donbass and the counter will be to take a little more turf into Donbass. Then force a ceasefire to save Kiev from complete doom will result in the separation and independence of Donbass. The war will be over. The Ukie military will be sent across the river and forced to stay there.
Russia wants Kiev to throw its full force against Donbass. That would be a stunning mistake by Kiev, resulting in a swift defeat and obliteration of Ukie forces. It likely would mean a change in government. A new reality.
The key is to get Kiev to attack.
Most importantly, NATO and the US would remain marginalized, seen as weak and useless.
The residual effects would be NATO wounded, the hegemon exposed.
This is not a win-win proposition. There can be only one winner. Russia has to be the winner.
If the Republics are to take more ground westward, it has to be within mortar range of Kiev, just in case the Orcs get uppity. Turn about, is fair play.
I doubt Russia wants to take responsibility for 404, other than what it has now. Any ground movement will be handled by the locals, with Russian technical help for sure, not counting the Wagner types and there will be no shortage of volunteers, there’s a few pounds of flesh to be extracted for Odessa. Plus as you noted above, it’d be an IED nightmare for Russian regulars….not including drones encounters.
Russia didn’t defeat Chechens, Chechens did. So I think it’s gotta be local and organic….is knee capping organic…. sure can be local.
NATO forces would have to commit to fight Russia in the Ukraine, for Russians forces to ever go there…..not withstanding, Z begs for Russian intervention, I’m sure he’s asked for a chopper, just in case, hey, if the the Russians can save Erdo….why not Z?
Cheers M
While we wait, the drama continues to unfold. The key UNSC meeting on 31 January was accompanied by some very choice, frank words by Lavrov that tell the story BigLie Western Media is ordered not to tell. Interested readers can get the gist and links to them here.
Just heard a lunatic British MP on TV hysterical ranting about Russia and China and says Nato should put troops into Ukraine NOW,he must have a death wish or he is totally unhinged.,looks like he wants Europe on fire.
Judging from one of ministries of truth in the corporatist version of Oceania, specifically Fox Hasbara, I think it is “highly likely” that the West may do one of their usual impropriety-technicals (psyops) not just in General Protection Fault and/or LDNR but rather in (or also in) PRC since they want as much control of Olympics-related communications (and ability to deny any access to PRC) as possible.
Of course, I have doubts that is possible. Perhaps, for example, there are plenty of holes in open source parts of Android OS code alone. Also, there is the matter of who and where chips were designed and manufactured. Of course, I am sure the above only scratches the surface, but still…
I expect a lot more redundant answers to the non-ultimatums before any (at least any particularly painful) not or elses.
There is an old story of King Midas whose touch turned everything to gold. There is a modern-day equivalent: a country that can print bits of paper that the rest of the world accepts in exchange for real wealth such as raw materials, manufactured goods, and services (including bought loyalty).
Is it possible? Would all other countries accept this?
They do. The bits of paper is The Almighty Dollar and the country is the United States of America.
It is the richest country in the world. Wealth buys power, and everything else.
How can this be ended? Bomb the printing presses? Or cease to recognise these printed bits of paper?
Perhaps China, Iran, and Russia have a non-military way by stopping Midas in his monetary madness. Return to gold, or some equivalent. Ditch the Dollar. Break the Hedgemon.
You forget the flip side which is that the sellers of rw, md, services and the buyer of souls can also use these dollars to also buy whatever they want, not to mention all the greed in the world which supports the dollar. No, fighting the dollar is a useless task whatever its certain fate will be. It is better to immunize a nations economy say perhaps turning it into a “Resistance economy.”
What a few rotten west European countries and the country of the coot failed to see was that the stake was the security of Russia. So if then 140+ Battleships of the Russian Navy leave Russian ports to sea, one should get an ‘effing clue about what’s next.
F-35 dropped into the South-Chin Sea, due to Russia’s EW? Who knows?