Week Two of the Russian Military Intervention in Syria Options for Daesh, the Empire and Russia

This column was originally written for the Unz Review: http://www.unz.com/tsaker/week-two-of-the-russian-military-intervention-in-syria/

The Russian offensive in Syria is still very much in full swing and it is hard to make sense of what is really happening or how effective it has been. According to the Syrians, 40% of all the infrastructure of “Daesh” (meaning ISIS+al-Qaeda+all the hundreds of smaller groups fighting together against the Syrian government) has been destroyed. Russian sources are less enthusiastic and speak of a rather slow and hesitant Syrian offensive. So far, no major victory has been reported, but since all sides agree that the Russian air campaign is devastatingly effective and highly disruptive for Daesh, I think that there is a good probability that the Syrians will soon achieve a major success. If not, then the Iranians most definitely have the capability to truly tip the balance. So this might be a good time to look at what options Daesh will have.

How Daesh can adapt to the new circumstances

First, up until now, Daesh basically could move around at night with total impunity because the Syrian Air Force simply did not have the technology to detect and engage Daesh units at night. This has now changed since all the Russian aircraft (rotary and fixed wing) engaged in the current campaign are fully night capable. This is a major problem for Daesh which will now have to operate in an extremely dangerous environment 24 hours a day. The solution? Camouflage and dispersal. Daesh forces will have to learn to pay much more attention to avoiding detection, including radio detection, and they will have to avoid as much as possible any detectable concentrations. Not an easy task, for sure, but one which has been successfully learned by others in the past.

Second, Daesh forces will have to adapt to guerrilla-style ‘hit and run’ kinds of attacks. Until now, both sides were willing to engage in a bizarre kind of “trench warfare” in which each side would dig in and shell the other. Now that Russian bombers and close air support aircraft can be called in by the Syrian frontline commanders, this will become very dangerous for Daesh, probably forcing them to switch to faster, ambush warfare.

Third, most sources agree that currently Daesh controls roughly 80% of the land and 20% of the population. This is mostly due to the size of the Syrian armed forces which are stretched too thin to hold on to lightly populated areas. Daesh can use that to its advantage and try to move around any attacking Syrian forces and then ambush any units whose flanks and supply routes are not secured. The Syrians will have to be very careful not to fall into a “cauldron” trap like the Ukrainians in Novorussia.

Fourth, if things become really ugly for Daesh, they can start using the Turkish, Iraqi, Lebanese and Jordanian borders to hide from the Syrian/Iranian forces and enjoy the kind of safe heaven the Afghans had in Pakistan during the Soviet invasion.

Fifth, Daesh might do what the Ukrainians have done and organized a ‘Russian atrocity’ false flag, maybe the bombing of a pediatric clinic or hospital. They could even try a “Russian chemical attack in fleeing refugees”. The corporate media will be more than happy to pick up and spread the story, no matter how ridiculous.

Finally, we can be absolutely certain that if the Syrian military is “too” successful, at least from the point of view of the Empire, then all the “friends of Syria” will join forces and demand a “peace conference” whose main purpose will be to save Daesh from complete destruction. This is the strategy used by the West with the Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 peace talks to save the Ukronazi junta from military defeat.

The world has seen numerous examples of Daesh-like forces (in military, not political, terms) adapting to a technologically superior enemy. Right now, the government’s superiority is primarily in the skies (thanks to the RuAF) and in intelligence (thanks to the OsNaz GRU units on the ground and the Russian “eyes and ears” in the sky and in space). With time, however, Russian could bring in new equipment (modern multiple rocket launchers, TOS-1 heavy flame-throwers, newer armor and artillery systems) which can make a real difference but at the end of the day, it will be ‘boots’, in the sense of infantry, which will decide the outcome. Will the Syrians and Kurds be enough to break Daesh or will the Iranians make a move? I honestly don’t know, but my bet is on Iran and Hezbollah moving in. As for a Russian intervention, Putin has now totally excluded such a possibility.

Options recommended by US politicians

US politicians have come up with two suggestions to help their “moderate terrorists”: supply advanced anti-air missiles to Daesh and impose a no-fly zone. I consider both of these suggestions highly impractical and very dangerous.

Delivering advanced anti-air missiles: which ones?! Daesh already has man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) like the US Stingers and Russian Iglas. These are fine missiles, but they don’t have the reach to hit Russian aircraft which mostly fly at 5000m. True, they can hit a low flying target like a SU-25 on a close air support mission or a Mi-24 helicopter. Both of these aircraft have been heavily modified during and after the wars in Afghanistan and Chechnia and they are well-protected against such attacks. Still, sooner or later a Russian aircraft will get hit by such a missile and it is even possible that it will be downed. Daesh already has this capability and sending them more MANPADs just makes no sense but is very dangerous considering the kind of use any terrorist group can make of them against civilian airliners. Syria is not Afghanistan and we are not in the 1980s. MANPADs are simply not likely to make a major difference in this war, especially not against the kind of aircraft the Russians are currently deploying.

A no-fly zone: against whom, Russian aircraft? For one thing, this would be insanely provocative and the potential consequences of the US shooting down a Russian aircraft are truly terrifying. But this also begs the question of where such a zone would be created. Hillary and the other Neocon crazies are suggesting a no-fly zone over northern Syria. Okay, what if in response Russia declares another no fly zone over the rest of the country? Then what? Setting aside the insanity of actually threatening to attack Russia in military terms, in legal terms the Empire has no mandate to declare such a zone while Russia is standing on 100% legal grounds should she declare one. And if the Empire really goes crazy and declares that it will impose a no-fly zone over all of Syria you can be absolutely certain that S-300s will “suddenly” show up in sufficient numbers to make that an extremely dangerous exercise. By the way, at that point, the Russians can declare that all the S-300s in Syria are manned exclusively by Syrian personnel and are under Syrian command and thus they will be able to shoot down US aircraft in total impunity (as they already have in the past in Vietnam and Lebanon).

A no-fly zone makes sense against a defenseless country, but against one armed with semi-modern or modern air defenses this is a very dangerous proposition. I want to believe that there are enough mentally sane men in the JCS and Pentagon to reject any plan which can end up triggering a nuclear war between Russia and the USA.

The “sulking superpower”

Right now, the USA appears to be completely clueless. First, they accused the Russians of bombing the “wrong” terrorists. The Russians then replied “okay, give us a list of “bad terrorists” targets and we will destroy them”. The Americans refused. Then the Russians told them, “okay then, in this case at least give us a list of “good terrorist” targets not to bomb, and we will not hit them”. But the Americans refused again! At this point, the Russian began making openly fun of the Americans and Putin even declared that his American “partners” have “mush for brains”.

Furthermore, the USA have also refused a Russian invitation to send military specialists to the Russian General Staff and now they have apparently even refused to receive a Russian military delegation headed by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev himself! I don’t think I have ever heard of a “sulking superpower” but that is what we are apparently observing right now. How long Uncle Sam will continue to pout in his corner is anyone’s guess, but this is clearly not a sustainable policy. In fact, it is no policy at all.

I see no sign of the USA having the courage to look at reality and act accordingly. Not only is the Obama Administration at an absolutely unprecedented level of incompetence and intellectual mediocrity, the upcoming Presidential election is just making things worse: with bona fide psychopaths like Hillary, McCain or Fiorina making irresponsible statements on an almost daily basis, the White House must constantly dodge accusations of being “too soft on Russia”. And since no US politician can afford to tell the American public the basic truth that the US is not omnipotent, US politicians are stuck in a never ending race to prove how “tough” they are on “defense”. As for the Europeans, they probably have the brains to see all of the above, but what they lack is the spine to say anything to their American overlords.

Just like in the Ukraine, the West has made created a total mess and now is completely clueless as to what to do about it.

Russian options

Contrary to the impression given by the western media, the Russian force in Syria is still a very small one. The main reason for that is that the airfield near Latakia simply cannot accommodate a larger Russian force. As far as I know, there are no other locations in Syria where Russia could deploy more aircraft. True, the number of sorties flown by the Russians has baffled USAF experts who could never have achieved that kind of figures with US aircraft and pilots. Still, the Russian force is small and vulnerable. Of course, one option for the Russians would be to expand the airfield near Latakia, but that would take time and more resources and my understanding is that they want to consolidate their current airfield first. However, as a stop-gap measure, the Russians could use Russian-based bombers. If Iran allows Russia to conduct in-air refueling in Iranian airspace or if Iran allows Russia to use Iranian airbases, then many more SU-34/SU-35SM or SU-34/SU-30SM “air force packages” that could be engaged in Syria. In theory, Russia could even provide her Tu-22M3 to deliver gravity bombs, her Tu-95MS to deliver cruise missiles and her Tu-160 to deliver either one or both. I don’t think that there is any military necessity to use these strategic bombers right now, but it might be a good idea to do so for political reasons – just to flex some more ‘military muscle’ and show the Neocons that Russia is not to be messed with. Submarine launched cruise missiles would also work, especially if launched by a Russian sub in the Mediterranean which the USN did not detect. What is certain is that after the first volley of Russian cruise missiles the US withdrew its only aircraft carrier – the Theodore Roosevelt – from the Persian Gulf.

[Sidebar: some Russian observers have suggested that the first volley of Russian cruise missiles included 26 missiles because the 26^th President of the United States was Theodore Roosevelt, the name of the only carrier which was in the Persian Gulf, and that this was a subtle message to the USA. Dunno. Maybe so. Maybe not. But if it is a coincidence, it is a neat one. What is certain is that for the first time in a very long while there are no US carriers in the Persian Gulf]

The main problem with any military escalation or increased Russian involvement is that Putin would have to sell it to the Russian public which, at least so far, has been totally supportive, but which is generally weary of “mission creep” and open ended military commitments (for example, most Russians oppose an overt Russian intervention in the Donbass). So far, the Kremlin has done a superb PR job explaining that Daesh is a direct threat to Russia and that it was better for Russia to “fight them over there than over here”. This logic, however, is predicated on the idea that a very limited Russian intervention can tip the balance. There is a very fine conceptual line between tipping the balance and fighting someone else’s war and that is something the Kremlin is acutely aware of. Hopefully, this line will never be crossed.

The Saker

UPDATE: the latest news is that the Americans have even refused the Russian offer to coordinate the rescue of any American or Russian pilot shot downed/crashed over Syria! Apparently, it is more important for Obama to continue sulking at Putin than to maximize the survival chances of US pilots. This is as pathetic as it is disgusting.

Alexis TK27 on October 19, 2015 · at 10:05 am EST/EDT

A few points to build up on this analysis:

1. Absence of any US carrier in Persian Gulf was announced back beginning of August, therefore it CAN’T be the result of Russian cruise missile volley which took place beginning of October – some two months later.
See e.g. this link “U.S. won’t have aircraft carrier in Persian Gulf for at least 2 months”, dated August 5th : http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/05/politics/no-aircraft-carrier-persian-gulf-iran/
The provided rationale was: “The official said that’s because the Navy has to schedule needed maintenance after years of extended deployments and because of reduced spending due to mandatory budget cuts.”
Anyway, Persian Gulf remains under control of US aircraft based in Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait etc. which could be reinforced in case of need.

2. It is to be hoped that the US do not attack Russian aircraft in Syria. That being said, not only candidates like Clinton are openly flouting such ideas, US strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski is on record that the US should send an ultimatum to Russia to stop attacking those Syrian rebels supported by the US (that is: all save Islamic State and JAN), under penalty of the US “disarming” the Russian base in Lattakia – meaning of course attacking it.
See for yourself: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c1ec2488-6aa8-11e5-8171-ba1968cf791a.html#axzz3p0O9WR3e (dated October 5th)
This is impressive since Brzezinski has generally refrained from mindless go-to-war “Grr Waf Waf Patriotism”. He is a strategic thinker and wants the US to use force only when its strategic interests are really threatened. Now this man is adamant that this is the time for US to risk a shooting war against Russia.
Brzezinski is without official power, but he is not without influence. Even more, the fact that he thinks this way is strong indication that other people, closer to active power circles, may think the same.
Probability of US attacking the Lattakia Russian base I would say remains relatively low. But it is certainly NOT neglectible.

3. Should the US choose such policy and attack the Russian base in Lattakia, a few things are sure, many more are HIGHLY unpredictable.
a) On the “Sure” list:
– None of the two countries would use nuclear weapons. Stakes are just way too low for that. Similarly, neither the 1999 Indo-Pakistan war nor the 1969 Soviet-Chinese war did result in nuclear use
– None of the two countries would wage the slightest attack on territory of the other. That would be way too dangerous, risking escalation towards nuclear use
– The Russian base in Lattakia would be incapacitated / destroyed and Russia would lose that battle
– US forces would pay a hefty price for their victory
b) On the “Unpredictable” list is… well all the rest!
– Beginning with Russia’s follow-on. Russia losing a battle wouldn’t mean the war to be over. Moscow would retaliate in basically unpredictable ways on other topics and other battlefields in the world, sooner or later, overtly or covertly. Question is: if you challenge Russian strategists to come up with creative ways to harm US interests worldwide while minimizing the risks to Russia, what will they invent? Nobody knows, not even them, since they have not received such challenge yet
– Reaction of other major powers would be… well, something to watch. Thinking primarily about China, which may well freak out and engage in a massive military buildup… or do nothing on the surface and wait for America to further weaken itself while comforting Moscow with words, plus just enough support to avoid Russia to abandon the fight.
– Also the Europeans: acquiescence of majority of European populations to let America define their foreign policy for them and then follow it more or less willingly or grudgingly is based on the idea that this arrangement is simple, cheap and above all safe. Washington doing something as radical as attacking Russian forces over policy disagreements in what in European eyes is a second or third-rate country would shatter that idea, if not collapse it entirely. Then it would be replaced… with what?
– Same question might be asked about the Japanese.
Brzezinski’s recommended course of action would lead to quick albeit costly victory, however as for the future would open so large uncertainties that I would say his (and other’s) advice will probably be ignored. Starting a war with Russia, even a relatively small one, is not how one can win an American election.

That being said, surprises do exist, and sometimes advices for “strategic boldness” (as Brzezinski puts it) are followed for good. So you never know. And then, even if nothing happens before the US election, the days after may be much more dangerous for Russian forces in Syria… which probably won’t be out of the country then, let’s face it: too many external powers are too much interested to continue fueling the flames of Syrian civil war for it to be won – by anybody – in a single year’s timeframe.

135 Comments

Auslander on October 18, 2015 · at 1:10 pm EST/EDT

As usual, Saker, a well written and insightful synopsis of the current events in ME.

In my opinion US is not so much sulking as getting over the current surprise deployment of substantial Russian Armed Forces to the Middle East with, like the assistance sent to Krim and Sevastopol early last year, zero forewarning and zero indications that a deployment was eminent before the units actually landed.

The West has been totally shocked at the speed and alacrity of the deployment and the speed of the deployed forces mounting combat operations after arrival at aerodrome. Toss in the cruise missile attack of some days ago, fired by a little known and muchly ignored river fleet that supposedly was simply confined to the Caspian Sea, and it is no wonder Foggy Bottom and Berlin don’t know what to make of the events or what to do in regards to this surprise reminder that Russia is, indeed, a world power. It seems to me that The West has fallen in to the trap of believing their own propaganda which is a bit surprising considering the breadth of experience DC and Langley has. That being said, more strange things have happened.

As some of you know, we are sitting on Ground Zero if this fight goes global. We are not worried about that but we do worry about our Navy boys off the coast of Syria and our Marines doing the facility security. It is common knowledge that our harbor is empty and in a way with so many of our boys gone the city actually feels a little quiet and lonely, at least at the facilities we visit from time to time. We pray for the safe return of our boys and our ships, all of them. May God bless them all and return them to us under His protection.

Auslander
- Anonymous on October 18, 2015 · at 4:43 pm EST/EDT
  
  “surprise deployment”
  
  You think they didn’t know why more black stuff was going down at the airbase?
  - Auslander on October 18, 2015 · at 6:36 pm EST/EDT
    
    What one hand knows does not necessarily translate in to the other hand having the information. Judging from the screams emanating from Foggy Bottom I would say either they didn’t know or refused to believe what was coming. Somebody may, or may not, have known but TPTB surely had not a clue, either that or they patently refused to believe the information presented to them.
    
    In Krim last year not a whisper was heard of what was coming until the landing ships plowed in to the beach sand above Kerch, opened their doors and out roared a whole lot of vehicles and polite young men in green about the same time as more than a few Antonovs ghosted down through the clouds and landed at Simferopol to back up Opolchensya who had taken the aerodrome couple days before and shut it down to Kiev junta.
    - Uncle Bob 1 on October 19, 2015 · at 12:21 am EST/EDT
      
      I’m curious on a couple of points here.One,the Russians say that they told all their “pardners” about what they were going to do before hand.And I do remember hearing of “this meeting and that meeting” with their “pardners” going on before.So I think it was more “they didn’t believe it”.And Russia may not have explained they meant “now”.So the others thought the move was weeks or months away.Second,you seem to be saying that Russian troops “did” go into Crimea before the referendum.Now what we’ve heard before was that those troops were already there in Crimea, as part of the Russian bases.That they were there under the base agreements and just left the bases.But since you live there, I’d think you would know better than we would on the truth of that.Personally,I don’t care.I support Crimea’s reunion with Russia either way.And propaganda being what it is,I can easily understand if they didn’t want to reveal the whole story.But I am curious as to which is true,and which not.
      - Anonymous on October 19, 2015 · at 2:41 am EST/EDT
        
        A little off-topic but perhaps relevant to understanding the short-sightedness, paranoia and cultural deficiences of the US Pentagon and various ponderous alphabet agencies is this article.
        It is unnecessarily verbose, disjointed and in need of edit but nevertheless is well worth a wade through:
        
        “How to explain the KGB’s amazing success identifying CIA agents in the field?
        Paranoid CIA heads blamed Soviet moles, but the real reason for the repeated disasters was much simpler”
        
        http://www.salon.com/2015/09/26/how_to_explain_the_kgbs_amazing_success_identifying_cia_agents_in_the_field/
      - Ann on October 19, 2015 · at 3:19 am EST/EDT
        
        Uncle Bob, I watched a Putin interview, perhaps on “Crimea the Way Home” where he said, “…of course we sent troops in…”…and the referendum itself was organized by Russians.- Putin’s people.
        
        Peter on October 19, 2015 · at 3:56 am EST/EDT
        
        In Crimea, I believe under the terms of the lease, Russia could station up to 20,000 troops/military personal there.
        Although Russia sent more troops (invasion) I think the total number would not have exceeded the 20,000 allowed at that time.
        
        Anonymous on October 19, 2015 · at 4:27 am EST/EDT
        
        https://www.rt.com/news/russian-troops-crimea-ukraine-816/
        
        Russia’s 25,000-troop allowance & other facts you may not know about Crimea
        Published time: 4 Mar, 2014 20:07
        
        Grieved on October 19, 2015 · at 4:15 am EST/EDT
        
        Ann, that same documentary has Putin saying that they wouldn’t have done it without the local self-defense forces being so strongly certain of the way forward. Putin said they were always ahead of the RF backup forces, and “we even had to restrain them at times.”
        
        Uncle Bob 1 on October 19, 2015 · at 5:03 am EST/EDT
        
        I think he meant “sent troops in”,as in, sent them off the bases.But I could be wrong.That’s why I figured someone actually there would know for sure.As to the referendum.I don’t doubt the Russians could have suggested it (that legal streak again I mentioned in a post).But I think the organizing of it was done by local Crimean Russians (the majority population of Crimea).
      - Auslander on October 19, 2015 · at 5:39 am EST/EDT
        
        Uncle Bob, there is no doubt what came off the landing ships and the Antonovs at Sim airport. Everyone in the west was screaming about no insignia etc on the troops. Big deal, I didn’t wear such when I was deployed, either, nor did we wear rank. When the first of the landed troops arrived someone mentioned to them that perhaps they should remove the license tags from their vehicles or at least turn the tags around, as under the right double digit it clearly says ‘RUS’. Somehow a box of flat black spray paint appeared and the tags had their reverse side painted with same.
        
        While there may have been the allowed 20,000 RF troops in Krim and Sevastopol, the majority of them were service troops and Navy. The Orcs had more and although we knew they were of poor quality with dismal equipment readiness they were still a force to be reckoned with if they chose to fight. Fortunately ElInt and other methods were used to stop the vast majority of the Orc commo with their commanders in Kiev who of course were screaming for them to attack the locals and Russian troops.
        
        Opolchensya were, indeed, rapidly spreading all over Krimu and Sevastopol Region, bottling up the Orc lagers and troops. Opolchensya also paid a visit to every Militsiya and DAI facility in the peninsula and confiscated their very well stocked weapons rooms, leaving just their service pistols with those worthies in both entities. I’ve never been able to figure why a little 10 man Militsiya office had a weapons room with 100 automats and half a dozen medium MGs with sufficient ammo on hand to fight for a while.
        
        As for the ‘there’s no Russian troops invading Krimea’ deal, come on. There were instant vids extant of the landings on the east and south coasts plus lots of air assets all over the place, clearly visible in numerous vids posted on public sights. In Sevastopol Region yes, it was mostly our local units who secured the region and parts of the south coast all the way to Yalta, but it was a visiting Spetznaz unit that drove direct from Kerch to Balaklava and relieved the Opolchensya unit that had barricaded Orc coast guard and navy troops in their lager at the foot of Balaklava Harbor. There was from a day earlier a Russian Navy missile ship sitting of Balaklava Harbor entrance and blockading the Orc coast guard and two navy ships in harbor.
        
        The surprise to the west in the Krim operation was they had not a clue of what was coming almost until the moment the landing ships hit the beaches on the east and south coast. OpSec was practiced to the extreme during the RAF preparations for the operation.
        
        There were no casualties in this operation beyond two orcs wounded at Belbek Aerodrome, taken out after they had made a deal to surrender the base and a couple decided to be true orcs and shoot at RF troops. At Feodosiya, the orc spetznaz unit guarding the S300 missile systems in their lager at first refused to consider capitulating but after a face saving firefight was arranged wherein a lot of ammo was expended by both sides with thankfully not a soul on either side injured the base surrendered. The two deaths were in Simferopol, that was one orc sniper who shot one orc Navy officer in command of a weather station and shot one of the Opolchensya patrol, unarmed, who ran to the sound of the gunfire. That worthy gentleman is counting trees and will be doing so for a while.
        
        Uncle Bob 1 on October 19, 2015 · at 5:03 pm EST/EDT
        
        Thanks,that clears up any confusion.I suspected as much.But its good to hear I was right.There is so much propaganda put out by both sides (and in many cases ,just needless propaganda) that its hard to understand the facts fully.I understand that since most people know nothing at all of the situations that confront them (the history and backgrounds of events).People in authority think its best to just “obscure” the facts until everything is settled.I’m not sure that’s the best policy.I think a better policy would be to fill in the information of “cause” and effect instead.
- RR on October 18, 2015 · at 10:42 pm EST/EDT
  
  They are not only a global power, they are the predominate global power militarily. Their electronic defences has absolutely blinded NATO from what is going on in Syria and they cannot defend against them. American’s can take comfort though, they still have ipod.
  RR
  - Mulga Mumblebrain on October 19, 2015 · at 8:50 am EST/EDT
    
    And ‘Grand Theft Auto’ and gangsta-rap, RR.
- Purple Library Guy on October 19, 2015 · at 4:25 pm EST/EDT
  
  This is IMO one of the dangers of propaganda. Not so much short-term disinformation, but if you have a broad, general propaganda line which is continued for a long time on a significant scale, it works itself into the consciousness of even the people perpetrating it, and furthermore over time you get people coming into the leadership whose formative years were on the receiving end of the propaganda rather than the perpetrating end.
  Such propaganda is very effective in that it works its way deep into a society and is very hard to root out. Any attempts to change society in ways that require beliefs running counter to the propaganda become really difficult. But if it implies a worldview significantly at odds with reality, it will impair leadership decison making in potentially dangerous ways.
  - Uncle Bob 1 on October 19, 2015 · at 5:19 pm EST/EDT
    
    You are “very” right there.Has anyone ever wondered how “entertainment” media has changed our thinking over the years.When I was a “kid”,you had “good guys” and “bad guys” portrayed in television,and movies (which was which, might not be accurate.But that another story there).Today,many of the “heroes” in television, movies,and video games are the “bad guys” of yesterday.Criminals and gangster characters are looked up to on the screen.In the “Godfather” series,and many others,you are “rooting” for Mafia thugs.In spy or police shows,you see the so-called “good guys”, committing crimes that would land you or me on “death row”.And they are classed as the “heroes”.Morality in today’s West has changed over the years to a point of almost “black is white” proportions.
    - Shaman on October 19, 2015 · at 8:56 pm EST/EDT
      
      This is very interesting Uncle Bob. The process to dilute the division of good and evil and to change black and white to shades of grey has been going on for much longer than your childhood I believe and I wonder whats the true motive behind it? Its been a very planned, organised and determined programme. Can anyone enlighten me the reason behind it?
      - Mulga Mumblebrain on October 19, 2015 · at 11:12 pm EST/EDT
        
        It’s simple. When truly Evil creatures, basically genocidal psychopaths, wish to pose as the moral conscience of humanity, and DEMAND that all others obey them because of their ineffable ‘Moral Values’, while murdering millions, then morality must be inverted, turned inside out and black must become white. To do so successfully one requires a political and brainwashing MSM system where the apparatchiki speak with 100% uniformity and do not hesitate to regurgitate the most preposterous lies while shouting abuse at any who dare point out the logical ‘inconsistencies’ and outright lies. And after decades of US dominance, the good, decent and rational have been entirely purged from public life in the West, and black is white, up is down, and fulminating Evil is ‘Mom and Apple-pie’.
Veritas on October 18, 2015 · at 1:15 pm EST/EDT

Dear The Saker,

Thank you for your 2nd week installment of the Russian military intervention. The word “sulk” aptly describes the pathetic US Government and its less than mediocre staff; especially Obama. They just keep cutting off their noses to spite their faces. All it does is reveal to the world just how pathetic they truly are. The backlash to this is:

NATO countries are now suppoting the Russian intervention

http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20151018/1028702002/nato-slovakia-welcomes-russia-involvement.html

US citizens – even Fox viewers – supporting Putin

http://sputniknews.com/politics/20151018/1028698965/russia-strong-fox-news-poll.html

In retaliation the US decides to increase its war mongering and the US is destroying its own reputation. US now decides lets have missile defense drills in Europe

http://sputniknews.com/military/20151018/1028696073/us-navy-aegis-missile-defense-rim161-sm3-wargames.html

And the result is the US allies turn away from the US

http://sputniknews.com/politics/20151018/1028689293/Saudi-Arabia-Israel-Egypt-Knocking-Putins-Door.html

As you mention amongest all of this is the US presidential election where Donald Trump is looking quite sane compared to his other Republican candidates:

http://sputniknews.com/politics/20151018/1028691075/Trump-US-Has-Blame-Russia-MH17-Crash.html

There seems to be other sources saying the Syrian Army is making progress (Syrian perspective and Penny’s blog) and there might even be Russian testing of new weapons on the ground via the Syrian Army.

Apparently, Daesh fighters are fleeing so they, along with Al Quaeda (all the same), are forcing all Syrian males into forced mobilisation from the age of 14 to fight

http://tass.ru/en/politics/829746

http://tass.ru/en/politics/829747

They are also fighting amongest themselves according to the Russian defence ministry………I think if Daesh and Co. carry on like this they are making it easier for the Syrian army and its allies to defeat them. So they are not adapting the way they could, as u mention above.

Rgds,

Veritas
- Veritas on October 19, 2015 · at 10:30 am EST/EDT
  
  Dear The Saker,
  
  It seems Kerry is now trying to show a bit of US “let’s have talks”. My view – them trying to look like they still call the shots. I will add to this post three articles around this announcement:
  
  http://tass.ru/en/politics/829821
  
  Moscow says it is studying the proposal from US of these talks.
  
  http://tass.ru/en/world/829824
  
  Kerry states a meeting to take place with Russia, Sauds, Turks and Jordanians – notice some other important parties missing? I hope Russia pushes back to include Iran and Syria.
  
  http://sputniknews.com/politics/20151019/1028736476/syria-meeting-kerry-high.html
  
  And Moscow’s response again after Kerry’s announcement. Seems nothing has even been discussed at high level.
  
  Is the sulk ending or is the US trying to save face and acting like “we call the meetings and decide who comes & who we control”. Too little too late.
  
  Rgds,
  
  Veritas
  
  p.s. Turkey still going on about safe zones in Northen Syria to stop “refugees” – my a***.
Mohamed on October 18, 2015 · at 1:48 pm EST/EDT

Salam Saker,

I believe that authority given to Putin is not just Syria, it is everywhere and this includes Iraq and so forth.

I might be wrong!

Best regards,

Mohamed.
JJ on October 18, 2015 · at 1:54 pm EST/EDT

Thank you…..hope you are still able to have some down time.
mikhas on October 18, 2015 · at 1:54 pm EST/EDT

“Third, most sources agree that currently Daesh controls roughly 80% of the land and 20% of the population”

A ridiculous assessment which doesn´t say much since anyone can claim to be the “Caliph” of a piece of infertile desert without even being there and SAA wont argue with you either, their job is to protect Syrians and their property.

So what Daesh really “controls”, which is also where they actually are, is probably 20-30% more or less fertile land and those being around a few cities and villages under Daesh.

“Fourth, if things become really ugly for Daesh, they can start using the Turkish, Iraqi, Lebanese and Jordanian borders to hide from the Syrian/Iranian forces and enjoy the kind of safe heaven the Afghans had in Pakistan during the Soviet invasion.”

They could, but the SAA Russian and Syrian air force´s created facts on the ground not to say the geo-polititical reality as it is, say´s otherwise.

For “Sultan” Erdogan, keeping standing impatient armies of mercenarie death squads is a costly business which would immediately create all kinds of problems. There is a reason why he want his proxies in Syria, not in Turkey, the same goes for King Playstation in Jordan. It wont be easy for these people to get back and if they do they will certainly not survive for long, Russians are meticulously thorough in what they are doing and they learned it well in Chechnya, also fighting Saudi/US supported terrorists, so are the Syrians.
- zweistein on October 18, 2015 · at 6:04 pm EST/EDT
  
  Indeed.
- Grieved on October 19, 2015 · at 4:35 am EST/EDT
  
  I prefer not to call Saker’s assessments ridiculous** but I do agree with the main thrust of your comment – namely, that hosting a bunch of fired-up mercenaries on your own territory because you’re unable to set them loose on your target is a dangerous way to live.
  
  Putin has been saying this forever, that using mercenaries and ideological terrorist groups will always backfire on the sponsor, but no one believed him. Now I think we are about to witness the truth of this, in all the sponsor countries of the Middle Eat, and also Europe.
  
  I even suspect some of this real blowback may reach into the United States, and that will be a serious milestone in the beginning of the end for the empire.
  
  —
  
  ** “misleading ” might be a better word, in that a large percentage of what Daesh “controls” is land that nobody wants to fight over anyway – no need to quibble over a choice of words. Saker knows all this. I thought his entire article was very good. i thought your comment was equally good.
ɓʁuçɚ on October 18, 2015 · at 2:00 pm EST/EDT

It’s funny how those commenters at the Vineyard who like studiously to mishear what the host over and over makes clear and to lose no opportunity to deflect attention from the USA’s primacy in global evildoing appear to have been embarrassed into silence since Russian direct action so emphatically brought the USA’s duplicity into stark relief.
Daniel on October 18, 2015 · at 2:38 pm EST/EDT

It has been speculated that Russians have now deployed a set of measures which suppress/jam all electronic systems including satellite based too. Apparently NATO are completely blind. They don’t know what is happening in the Latakia area. That may be an explanation as to why the crazies are not showing movies of their MANPADS being launched at the Russians for which they get paid by Saudies and CIA. They simply don’t work in a theatre of war completely electronically suppressed and/or scrambled. Reportedly the Russians have establish a “bubble of 300 km in radius” around Latakia. If true the military balance has now tipped to Russia’s side.
- Penny on October 18, 2015 · at 3:49 pm EST/EDT
  
  “It has been speculated that Russians have now deployed a set of measures which suppress/jam all electronic systems”
  
  Saker et al:
  
  Gallier2 left some most interesting information at my blog. I turned it into a large post
  The info is concerned with Russian technology deployed to Syria to jam electronics/communications and TOW missiles. Gallier2 was able to verify the information from additional sources- The info is in French, I put it through translate and it makes for interesting reading- I also included a video
  
  http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2015/10/syriarussian-technology-to-impede.html
  - Peter on October 18, 2015 · at 5:58 pm EST/EDT
    
    I had a look at Gallier2s information at your blog Penny and a couple of things dropped into place.
    
    The first official US report I heard on the weapons drop was that 100 tons had been dropped to moderate rebels. This quickly become 50 tons dropped to Kurds. So the 50 tons dropped to ISIS/alqaeda seems solid as from other reports the had an instant re-supply of TOW missiles.
    
    The Shoria-1 video also shed some light. I looked into this system when it was first reported. apparently the armoured unit at at Aleppo has been equipped with it.
    Apart from the EW, officially it fires an explosive projectile that destroys the incoming missile within meters of the tank.
    In slow motion, the incoming missile is very clear then it simply explodes. No outgoing projectile can be seen. In the video at your site, in the demonstrations where the camera is mounted on the tank, a fast red streak shooting out from the tank to the missile can be seen on one of the shots.
    This makes me think it is something other than an explosive charge or solid projectile destroying the incoming missile.
    Very interesting.
  - RR on October 18, 2015 · at 9:27 pm EST/EDT
    
    This is it. The SS Donald Cook was no myth and explains the US withdrawal of the Roosevelt and American inaction as well as there totally surprise at Russian activities in Crimea and in the Caspian. So who really has the stealth technology lol. I hope my reading is correct. Thanks for this post, I came to this conclusion before reading it but this seems to verify what I has been fermenting ( for lack of a better term) in my mind. They have been disarmed. All they can do is arm misguided terrorists and pay mercenaries who will not go to fight to their death they are there to make money not die.
  - RR on October 18, 2015 · at 9:59 pm EST/EDT
    
    From the combat zone in northern Syria comes news of the deployment of a new Russian electronic jamming system which can reportedly blind radar, disrupt electronic guidance systems, and interfere with satellite imagery as well. As a result, NATO is effectively blinded inside a bubble of 600 km in diameter centered on the Russian base at Latakia, reports, Thierry Meyssan from Damascus
    from tarpley.net Also reports neo con putsch in American government.
    RR
    - Daniel on October 19, 2015 · at 5:55 am EST/EDT
      
      My views exactly, RR. Something huge has happened. Hence, the confusion, desperation, craziness that oozes from the States. They should celebrate Obama who seems to be the only with a bit of braines. He practically operates in the coup situation where every centre of power pulls to its own side from the crazy neocons, through the messianic Ziinist to the butt ugly humanitarian bombers, Trockistas, embodied in beautiful (NOT!) Samantha Powers. The lady is crazy as a meat axe.
      - RR on October 19, 2015 · at 6:41 am EST/EDT
        
        Humanitarian bomber…how convoluted is that? And yes, Russia’s electronic defences have tilted the balance of forces in their favour. I see this as the end of US Imperialism in any area aligned with Russia China or either one of their interests or any non aligned nation that wants to be able to defend itself. This is BIG.
- onezeno on October 22, 2015 · at 5:12 pm EST/EDT
  
  Speculation being they key word. I would speculate that this is primarily hype. They make it sound like the Russians are jamming all possible EM bands (but not themselves of course). Might as well claim they’ve deployed some perpetual energy devices too.
Rehmat on October 18, 2015 · at 3:18 pm EST/EDT

Syrian mess is all about maintaining Israel’s regional supremacy as Netanyahu put in ‘The Clean Break’ in the 1990s. Both Obama and Putin want to take Syria out of “Axis of Resistance” (Iran, Hizbullah-Syria). Only their tactics are different. Obama-Netanyahu want a regime change in Damascus, while Putin wants to make sure Muslim Brotherhood doesn’t replace Assad’s Ba’athist regime.

The governments in Syria, Iraq, Iran, and even Egypt have welcomed Russian involvement to join Iran, Syria and Hizbullah fight against western-funded terrorism in the region. Putin on the other hand is trying to defend his only Arab ally and protect its only Naval base in the region.

On October 4, the CIA asset, Dr. Juan Cole, claimed that Vladimir Putin is willing to drop his support for Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, who has become the most hated leader in the Arab world. But he is afraid to offend Russia’s trading partners in Iran and Iraq who want to keep Assad in power.

Iran, being a ‘theocracy’, has no common grounds with Assad’s anti-religion Ba’athist regime. Iran’s only interest is to keep an Iran friendly regime in Damascus in order to keep the Syria-Hizbullah channel open. Lebanese Islamic resistance Hizbullah is the only Arab militia which has defeated Jewish army in 2006.

http://rehmat1.com/2015/10/04/should-israel-worry-about-russian-strikes-in-syria/
- sejmon on October 18, 2015 · at 3:43 pm EST/EDT
  
  I do not believe crap- Mr.Putin is willing drop support of Dr. Assad….but he is afraid of Iranians-opposite is true..Rehmat you are troll…
  - Mulga Mumblebrain on October 19, 2015 · at 9:01 am EST/EDT
    
    Rehmat has his worldview, which he expresses honestly and rationally. You can agree or disagree with him, but I would never call him a troll.
- eimar on October 18, 2015 · at 8:42 pm EST/EDT
  
  Rehmat:
  
  I believe Russian-Iranian-Syrian relations are pretty good. Fars News Agency – the official voice of Tehran – is very consistent in its support of both Putin and Assad. SANA -Syrian Arab News Agency – the official voice of Damascus – is always positive on both Russia (particularly wrt Lavrov) and Iran.
  
  The leaders and military are definitely on the same page when it comes to ridding the region of ISIL.
  
  Putin is generally diplomatic about Israel while Assad and A. Khameini are fortrightly hostile. They have good reasons to be. But they know that the same issues do not necessarily apply to Russia and that Israel has a large Russian Jewish diaspora. They are statesmen and do not expect different relations to result in the same approaches.
  
  As for claiming Iran’s theocratic organization (which uses proportional representation btw) must therefore be hostile to secular states ..absolute nonsense. By that logic, it couldn’t stop at Syria, since much of the world is made of secular states. China, with whom Iran has very good relations, is actual an atheist state.
  
  So I have really no idea where you have got your impressions. Care to share your sources?
  - Uncle Bob 1 on October 19, 2015 · at 1:02 am EST/EDT
    
    I agree.I think many people on all sides fail to understand Putin’s desire for “legality and legitimacy” in all international dealings (all! ).That can certainly be a problem for Russia’s friends as well as her enemies.He wants a strict legal basis for all his international decisions.He may “stretch” the interpretation of legal a tiny bit.But only to the limits,never over them.That can present serious problems when dealing with what are essentially “international” criminals.To whom,international law means nothing unless it serves them.But that certainly explains his actions (or lack of) in Ukraine against the junta.And it explains his restrained dealings with the EU, and the empire.Even after provocation after provocation, on their parts.To understand Putin and Russia’s policies,I think we need to understand that.Whether that is the correct priority when you are dealing with genocidal enemies intent on your destruction, is open to question.But that that is his thinking I don’t think is open for question,its just fact.
    - blue on October 19, 2015 · at 1:55 am EST/EDT
      
      So you are a country, and one side has no regard for the law and is unpredictable, and could turn on you at any time, while other acts legally, within defined limits, and will not stab you in the back: who do want to deal with and ally yourself with?
      - Uncle Bob 1 on October 19, 2015 · at 5:10 am EST/EDT
        
        In a perfect World the later.But as you and I both know,we aren’t there yet.So the strongest would be the one I would “need” to deal with.Wanting to, is another matter.I don’t disagree with Putin wanting to create that first case World.I just don’t want him to be disappointed in it.
      - William Rood on October 19, 2015 · at 3:47 pm EST/EDT
        
        Yes, and that is why Putin does his best to follow international law and treaty commitments. However, to assume as Uncle Bob does that Putin follows international law out of principle is a mistake. Putin acts first of all in his own long term best interest and to a lesser degree that of the Russian people.
        
        At least until the election of Poroshenko, Putin could have cited international law to intervene overtly in Ukraine. All he had to do was get Yanukovich to request aid in putting down the putsch. Likewise, he could have intervened in Syria 4 years ago, but did not. Why not? After all, he had an obligation to protect his besieged ally! Neither of those actions would have been in accordance with his and Russia’s long term self-interest. Either action would have resulted in a US escalation before Russia was ready. Furthermore, Western Ukraine would indeed have been another Afghanistan. Syria will not.
        
        Putin is acting in Syria at this time because he has the secret support of several European nations (due to the refugee crisis), and possibly because his electronic countermeasures are more advanced than they were 4 years ago. The true heroes in all this are the tens of thousands of refugees who are risking their lives crossing the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas.
        
        Similarly, the Iran deal signed this summer would not have happened without fissures in the relationships between the US and its European allies. Europe needs Iranian oil and was going to make a deal with Iran even if the US opposed it. Given that, US corporations didn’t want to be the only ones left out.
        
        The Empire is disintegrating due to over reach. The next step will be some defections from NATO. Greece could have been a leader in that, but Tsipras did not prepare for Grexit as Varoufakis wanted, either because Tsipras is too stupid or because he has too much personal wealth tied up in the EU.
        
        It can’t happen soon enough for we few Americans who understand that the MIC is bankrupting us.
        
        Uncle Bob 1 on October 19, 2015 · at 4:52 pm EST/EDT
        
        “However, to assume as Uncle Bob does that Putin follows international law out of principle is a mistake.”
        
        I don’t think that “principle” is his only reasoning (though I do believe it is one of them).It just so happens that his principles,match with what,if it works,is in Russia’s best interests.He unlike too many Western leaders can “walk and chew gum at the same time”.
    - Bob Jackson on October 19, 2015 · at 4:06 am EST/EDT
      
      Hence the “mush for brains” quote. It comes from the opening credits of the ’70s tv series “The Paper Chase”. Every week, John Houseman as Professor Kingsfield would intone “you come here with your brains full of mush and leave thinking like a lawyer”. Putin is arguing that US elite legal education has gone into reverse.
      - Uncle Bob 1 on October 19, 2015 · at 5:18 am EST/EDT
        
        I thought that when (one of many examples in US history) Bush got his attorney general to come up with a “legal” argument for how the US could deny human rights protections to enemies captured on the battlefield.That was such a disgraceful action of the Bush regime.And yet the “legal” establishment in the World was mostly silent about it,”might makes right is the new US motto.And its unwise for anyone to ever forget that.
        
        Mulga Mumblebrain on October 19, 2015 · at 9:16 am EST/EDT
        
        Bob, you know the story of how the Bushniks relied on the legal precedent of the Nazi ‘jurist’ Carl Schmitt and his, oh so familiar, theory of the Leader as the Exception to the Rule of Law. The Fuhrer/President can do anything he likes, and the apparatchiki just ‘follow orders’. It reminds me of what I know of the Qin ideology in China of Legalism, where everyone but the Emperor were subjected to harsh laws. What’s also interesting is that Leo Strauss, the greasy eminence of the Jewish and (a few) Sabbat Goyim neo-conservatives, and Schmitt influenced one another’s philosophies and worldviews. You can see where the Bush regime got the idea of relying on a Nazi jurist.
        
        blue on October 19, 2015 · at 5:14 pm EST/EDT
        
        One does not have to do something dumb just because it’s legal, such as getting Yanukovich to invite Russian intervention, but doing something not legal carries a cost, including into the long term. Ethics aside (which I think Putin is sensitive to) that long term thinking and abiding by law is in itself a principle and strategy. Putin wants a lawful world and it’ll be hard to get that, and support for it, if he acts illegally, so there is a convergence of reasons to go by the law.
        
        Bush’s ‘legal’ stance is still coming back to bite the US, and no one is really buying it — which, with other illegal actions, discredits the US in a major way and is a big factor in why the US is now losing support, and the war for the empire. This is not simple what-about-ism but carried to an entirely new level, qualitatively, with the US strong man now standing on quicksand.
  - Mulga Mumblebrain on October 19, 2015 · at 9:04 am EST/EDT
    
    eimar, Putin must be diplomatic towards Israel because the ruling Israeli elite are increasingly unstable and dangerous. Israel has threatened to nuke the USSR in the past, and Masada syndrome loonies may be higher up the Zionazi pecking order than we dare imagine. Diplomacy in this case is only rational.
    - Uncle Bob 1 on October 19, 2015 · at 5:29 pm EST/EDT
      
      And that is clearly the biggest problem with Israel.Its why nothing is ever done to stop them.It may be that someday that issue will have to be tested.And if they do try that (and it can be prevented or shielded against),they will need to be disarmed in the most violent manner.Allowing a rouge racist criminal state to continue to “blackmail” the World needs to be stopped.
anon on October 18, 2015 · at 3:29 pm EST/EDT

Quote “Finally, we can be absolutely certain that if the Syrian military is “too” successful, at least from the point of view of the Empire, then all the “friends of Syria” will join forces and demand a “peace conference” whose main purpose will be to save Daesh from complete destruction. This is the strategy used by the West with the Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 peace talks to save the Ukronazi junta from military defeat.”
This was also the strategy when Assad was winning against terrorists then Un sent kofi aman to save the terrorists in name of negotiation. The same when gaddafi was winnibg. In each ibstance Rusdia acted as traitor tobplease angloamericans.
- zweistein on October 18, 2015 · at 6:25 pm EST/EDT
  
  I don’t think so. By the time the US politburo and Zionist media clowns recover from their hissy fit, the easy life for the CIA mercenary-takfiris in Syria will be all but history.
  
  As I said before, a Russian failure in Syria is not an option. Peace conferences, yes, but only when Syrian territorial integrity has been recovered, and all foreign terrorists have been driven out.
anon on October 18, 2015 · at 3:32 pm EST/EDT

In war you do not go with hands tied behind your back -certsinly west will never do that. But stupid Russians have already said, no ground troops, no this, no that. And only minimum air force.
War is meant to be won and not tobwin brawn points and PR with your enemy.
- zweistein on October 18, 2015 · at 7:06 pm EST/EDT
  
  Don’t be fooled, anon, the performance by the Russian in Syria so far has been nothing but sensational on all levels, including PR. They have done everything right, as the numerous American idiot think tanks will find out in a couple of years.
  
  The brave SAA, exhausted by over 4 years of war, is doing all they can but can’t quite keep up with the speed, tactical finesse, and the modern hybrid war techniques by the Russians. That was to be expected.
  
  Luckily, Hezbollah is on the team, moral is high, Daesh already desperate and in retreat. The big offensive hasn’t even yet started.
- Ngoyo on October 18, 2015 · at 8:28 pm EST/EDT
  
  Putin is no fool. I’m sure his rejection of ground troops is well thought out and he has a solid plan to deal with any eventuality.
- RR on October 18, 2015 · at 9:35 pm EST/EDT
  
  Putin said in one interview,
  “Absolutely no Russian forces on the ground-for now!”
  Lot’s of other laws regarding rules of engagement and what type of forces Russia can employ as well as private one’s have taken place over the past couple of years.
  RR
  - Uncle Bob 1 on October 19, 2015 · at 1:30 am EST/EDT
    
    True! I’m not sure if the “no troops” covers Russian (or more importantly possibly Kadyrov’s) volunteer fighters.The Russian bases (and there will probably be more as time goes on) in the Latakia region are expected to have Russian “force protection” forces.Now it would seem to me, for that to be effective,the whole province will need to be a pro-government region.If you look at history,that is the main home region of the Alawite and many Christians in Syria.And at the beginning of the French mandate period was set up as an “Alawite” mini-state inside Syria covering the entire coast (Syria was planned by the French to be divided internally into different regions like that).So,after securing that whole region.I would like to see the entire protection for that area being turned over to Russian troops.All they would need to be is a defense force, in theory for the “bases”.But as the region is pretty pro-Assad to start with.They could,without combat,be the garrison troops for the area.Releasing the Syrian forces there now for combat against the rebels/terrorists.So in effect,keeping to the promise of Putin for no Russian troops beyond Russian “base protection”.While allowing more regular Syrian troops to fight the war.
    - mmiriww on October 19, 2015 · at 2:26 am EST/EDT
      
      There are Russian marines in Syria. I think Putin says there wont be any Russian ground troops on the offensives. They have checkpoints manned by Russian troops that display the Russian flags. They are not there to fight offensively but they will fight if attacked. Just like crimea where he said Russian troops did not invade and he was right, he had the right to place 25000 Russian troops there and he only had like 22000, so it was not an invasion. But before those extra 20000 or so Russian soldiers showed up those bases only had enough crew to man the checkpoints.
Inlander on October 18, 2015 · at 3:35 pm EST/EDT

It has been asked before, but why aren’t the Russians constructing shelters for their aircraft in Latakia?
- Outlaw Historian on October 18, 2015 · at 4:38 pm EST/EDT
  
  Clearly it was determined that hardened shelters weren’t required given the terrorist’s capabilities.
- RR on October 18, 2015 · at 10:46 pm EST/EDT
  
  They have an electronic bunker covering 600 km around that base.
  RR
- Anonymous on October 19, 2015 · at 12:18 am EST/EDT
  
  Latakia is a forward base and in no way intended to be a siege garrison so no need to bunker airplanes. There will be no Dien Bien Phu type fiasco in this desert war.
Anon on October 18, 2015 · at 3:36 pm EST/EDT

Quote US politicians have come up with two suggestions to help their “moderate terrorists”: supply advanced anti-air missiles to Daesh and impose a no-fly zone. I consider both of these suggestions highly impractical and very dangerous.”
Rusdia still dreaming of P R with westdespite suchvaggravation?
Rusdia should have supplied ANTIair misdiles tonhauthis, afgabs and other anti anhlo forces but no!; 5they are motre inerested in showing themsrlves to bevgood boys instad of men out to. Win war in shortestosdibke time with maximumkilling of enemies.
- zweistein on October 18, 2015 · at 7:09 pm EST/EDT
  
  Just the fact that US politicians are still talk about a non-fly zone shows how out of touch with reality and how delusional they are.
  
  The train has left the station – it is not going to happen!
Wim on October 18, 2015 · at 3:40 pm EST/EDT

I read somewhere that the civil airport of Latakia will be reserved for military operations. That would allow a considerable expansion of the number of flights. Sorry, no source.
teranam13 on October 18, 2015 · at 3:40 pm EST/EDT

Not sulking: Impotent rage which will spill over onto someone they think they can “take”. it behooves the Iranians to get cozy with the Russians. The insanity is that they believe their brag and like Gen Custer they head towards the Little Bighorn convinced that white makes right makes might which will win the fight. sigh. My military Guru says the middle ranking officer class of the US military is highly competent, professional and knows exactly what is going on–these are the guys that do not kiss -ass to get ahead.
- RR on October 18, 2015 · at 10:10 pm EST/EDT
  
  It seems it is the Lieutenant class of the military that has often replaced incompetent military and political elites. The lower CIA personal also came out against fake ISIS reports. Gadhafi and Nasser are two that come to mind in the ME. These guys need to mount a twitter campaign “Won’t provide air cover for Terrorists”
  - Uncle Bob 1 on October 19, 2015 · at 1:45 am EST/EDT
    
    Yes! As much as I “normally” oppose military coups.There are simply sometimes they would be the best solution to regimes gone insane.The coup against Mussolini ended his rule (officially) in Italy.Few would think a coup against Hitler wouldn’t have been a good thing.And certainly,if the Ukrainian military had done a coup against the junta,Ukraine would be better off today.It may take a military coup in the US to save it from the neo-con elites in power today.A question might be,”how far must the nation sink first”.And a second one,”are there enough patriotic lower ranked officers to mount a successful one”.I don’t know the answer to either of those questions.
    - RR on October 19, 2015 · at 6:52 am EST/EDT
      
      And it is an important question. I would think the US military has of late been closer to insurrection at any time in her history-given the support they have been providing terrorists which has just got to be eating at their craw. Given that it was mainly a CIA operation and the Pentagon intel and CIA have more often than not been at loggerheads…..Now could be the time. Especially if the neo cons just don’t understand that they are defenseless against Russia’s jamming equipment and any mission from here on in is essentially a suicide mission. The neo cons seem to be made up of West Pointer’s who never say any real action. Those General’s who actually served in battle eg Vietnam and came up through the ranks seem sincere when they say that last thing a military man wants is war…..Those getting speaker fee’s from Raytheon however another story.
      RR
Penny on October 18, 2015 · at 3:54 pm EST/EDT

Saker:

I disagree with the ‘sulking superpower’ concept- it appears to me that the US and co. is looking to “light the whole theatre (war theatre) into a more intense fire” to quote my husband when I asked him how I should describe my idea to you.
- Ngoyo on October 18, 2015 · at 8:32 pm EST/EDT
  
  Penny
  I’m sure the US is trying to come up with a way to get Russia bogged down in Syria. That may be why Putin has publicly said no ground troops. It complicates Obama & cos thinking on how to achieve the bog down. Probably they will try to ensure some Russian aircraft gets shot down, and the pilot captured by ISIS.
  - Anonymous on October 18, 2015 · at 10:28 pm EST/EDT
    
    The last time terrorist from the Middle east kidnaped Russians and demanded ransom, KGB killed whole family of one terrorist and voila, terrorist released the hostages
    - Ann on October 19, 2015 · at 3:34 am EST/EDT
      
      Yes, the Kadyrov way – he knows how to fight those *** terrorists…kill their families…yes…
      - Uncle Bob 1 on October 19, 2015 · at 5:36 pm EST/EDT
        
        I’m not a fan of that method.I have no problem with the “perp” or their associate criminals.But a person’s family,I disagree with.That is too close to “becoming a nazi,to defeat the nazi”.Once you begin to excuse evil,where do you stop.
        
        Ann on October 20, 2015 · at 5:39 am EST/EDT
        
        yeah, true…poor family members..but I guess they’d have to be taken into custody…
- RR on October 18, 2015 · at 10:53 pm EST/EDT
  
  The US is in absolute shock. Like a deer in the headlights. Reality has not yet sunk in. That is why they would not talk to Medvedev. They don’t know how to surrender as of yet. They should do it Russia will not embarrass them publically. They didn’t do it during the Cuban Missile Crisis and they won’t do it now. Etiquette, non humiliation is deeply embedded in Russian diplomacy. Annihilation of a recalcitrant enemy however is also a part of Russian tradition.
  RR
  - Ann on October 19, 2015 · at 3:36 am EST/EDT
    
    Yes, that bitch Clinton is squawking to an empty house…its all a stage…. rhetoric, for want of a ‘next move’…
    
    But they’ll eventually come up with one.
Peter J.Antonsen on October 18, 2015 · at 4:02 pm EST/EDT

The Saker:
Truly fine commentary.

To Americans, your observation: “the upcoming Presidential election is just making things worse: with bona fide psychopaths like Hillary, McCain or Fiorina making irresponsible statements on an almost daily basis,” should ring alarm bells.

They, and their financial patrons, are indeed psychopathic murderers. They have the blood of millions of innocent (mostly civilians) on their hands.

In America, the myth of the so-called ‘moderate terrorists’ continues to be sold. The ‘moderate terrorists’ supposedly include John Kerry (opinion is divided on whether he has been a CIA agent from the days of his stint as a soldier in the War Against Vietnam, when he began to voice some criticism of the American aggression, or whether he became an agent sometime later). Other ‘moderate terrorists’ are supposed to include Senators Warren, Sanders, and, perhaps, Trump.

The other organization I am a member of, the liberalish Nation Discussion Group, NDG, is generally Democrat gang oriented, and while most of the members (of our chapter) appear to prefer imperialist liberal (‘moderate terrorist’) Senator Sanders, they would, undoubtedly, as the fine programmed 1 dimension democrats they are, endorse genocidal psychopath Hilary Clinton, if she wins the party nomination.

I will tell you a secret; you must not tell anyone else; Clinton#2 is “The Anointed One.” And barring any late medical complications, will be the Democrat gang candidate, and the next unconstitutional Zionist puppet to occupy the mostly fictional office of the American Presidency.

The last Constitutional President was John F. Kennedy, the psychopaths assassinated him, and the Republic. In little more than a year, H. Clinton will replace Hollywood actor (and presidential impersonator), Obomber, (whose previous employment was impersonating the equally fictional Bin Laden).

The Zionist Oligarchs who control America and Europe and Palestine, are psychopaths. A review of their history from the end of World War II to the present clearly documents that. They were acting criminally from a much earlier date (I’m referring to the 1930s).

However, if you want to start at an even earlier date, ask the people of Jericho (unfortunately they were exterminated, men, women and children, by the Chosen ones – according to the Old Testament). To those who believe the Jericho reference is unkind, or that one cannot rely on the Old Testament for documentable history, (good point), I remind them that a song celebrating the extermination of the people of Jericho is sung in Synagogues and Churches throughout the world – today – in 2015.

American citizens can make the world a whole lot better place by restoring our Republic. Then we would cooperate with Russians, and all other peoples, to restore our planet to a pristine beauty, with all its inhabitants living with Life, Liberty, and actively pursuing their Happiness.

Oh that Jefferson!

For the Democratic Republics!

IMAGINE
- RR on October 18, 2015 · at 11:40 pm EST/EDT
  
  Simply turning America into a nation based on Law will take a social and political revolution:
  
  -OCCUPY 2.0 with AGENDA. Prosecute Bush Obama NATO War Criminals. Prosecute Wall Street Fraud Artists, Audit the Federal Reserve, Audit the Pentagon, Stop the Phoney War On Terror, Stop the Phoney War on Drugs, DISSOLVE NATO! Stop the Militarization of Local Police they cannot be used as Tip of the Spear Against People. All Police Actions involving violence must be subject to review of citizens from Community Directly Involved. Warren Buffet says there is a CLASS WAR going on and HIS SIDE is WINNING! We must not be divided by sex or race Unite across CLASS LINES GENERAL STRIKE LABOUR STOPPAGE only WEAPON WE HAVE. When the Cash Register STOPS Ringing…the 1% LISTEN. Restore Constitution, Bill of Rights, Rule of Law, Government OF FOR BY THE PEOPLE INTERNATIONAL GENERAL STRIKE AGAINST US IMPERIALISM NOW!
  Imagine!
  - Anonymous on October 19, 2015 · at 9:37 am EST/EDT
    
    Do you hammer the Russian Capitalist system&Oligarchs at the same time?
    - Peter J.Antonsen on October 19, 2015 · at 3:42 pm EST/EDT
      
      Anonymous on October 19, 2015 · at 9:37 am UTC
      “Do you hammer the Russian Capitalist system&Oligarchs at the same time?”
      
      To ask an accusatory question like that, you must show some basic integrity and identify yourself.
      
      The Russians have not murdered 2 million Vietnamese, 1 million Indonesians, 1 million Iraqis, 100,000 Guatemalans, butchered Syria, Libya, Yemen, Sudan, stolen the nation of Palestine, overthrown the American Government on November 22, 1963, False Flagged 9/11, and created the greatest and most inhumane Gulag Prison system on the planet, among numerous other terrorist acts.
      
      The Russians must strengthen their Democratic Republic; but they are a Democratic Republic. The United States cannot honestly make that claim.
      
      My major complaint against the so-called ‘Occupy’ is that they have advanced no Transitional political approach to expose the upcoming 2016 electoral circus. They utilize slogans, but put no actual obstacles in the way of Zionist Terrorist Democrat gang front-runner Hilary Clinton, or current misdirection leader, Hollywood Obomber, or the ‘moderate Zionist and imperialist terrorists, Warren, Sanders, or Kerry. Their lack of political activity, and their championing of ‘moderate’ imperialist terrorists, Sanders, and Warren, as they at the same time shield Hollywood Obomber and the actual American President, Netenyahoo, from exposure, raises questions as to their validity as a ‘Political Opposition.’
      
      The upcoming electoral farce creates opportunities for beginning a Dual Power confrontation with the imperialist Oligarchs.
      
      Restore the Republic and respect its Constitution!
      
      For the Democratic Republics!
      
      IMAGINE
      - Anonymous on October 19, 2015 · at 7:38 pm EST/EDT
        
        @Peter J.Antonsen “but they are a Democratic Republic.”
        
        It is rather a dictatorship of the oligarchs.
        
        Can you possibly manage to address my question?
        
        @Uncle Bob 1 & “casting stones” – i’m not interested in identifying the lowest common denominator.
        
        Peter J.Antonsen on October 19, 2015 · at 8:09 pm EST/EDT
        
        Anonymous = “dictatorship of the oligarchs.”
        
        You are what you pretend to oppose.
        
        You missed my missive on Lukashenko (or did you)?
        
        You also conveniently moved past my analysis of the US Government and its Totalitarian Zionist American Terrorist Oligarch leaders.
        
        You are not “Anonymous.” Who you are – is obvious.
        
        IMAGINE
        
        Anonymous on October 19, 2015 · at 8:38 pm EST/EDT
        
        @Peter J.Antonsen – i’m not interested in identifying the lowest common denominator (which is, without doubt those you refer to).
        
        Can you possibly manage to address my question of October 19, 2015 · at 9:37 am UTC?
    - Uncle Bob 1 on October 19, 2015 · at 5:46 pm EST/EDT
      
      We could use a few quotes from the Bible to explain the situation to you,”let him without sin cast the first stone”.You are casting stones at Russia’s sins to excuse the much greater ones of the empire.And,”You hypocrite, first take the plank out of your own eye, and then you will see clearly to remove the speck from your brother’s eye”.The West is dominated by oligarchs easily far more than Russia is.They just aren’t talked about very much in the West.
    - Anonymous on October 19, 2015 · at 7:41 pm EST/EDT
      
      They are under political control not vice versa and yes, Russia and China will have to come to terms with their comprador class. Guaranteed. In context I never fail to say so.
      RR
      - Anonymous on October 19, 2015 · at 9:06 pm EST/EDT
        
        Not so RR,
        
        political machinations are under control of the oligarch corporations/individuals worldwide
        
        blue on October 19, 2015 · at 9:34 pm EST/EDT
        
        The oligarchy is not monolithic. One huge division is between financiers/ banksters and manufacturers, and rentiers split off from that — and they all compete with each other.
        
        Anonymous on October 20, 2015 · at 5:20 am EST/EDT
        
        Good to have you back blue – I had become concerned you were spreading out on a wave in some ongoing reality.
        
        Of course it is not monolithic but it’s form (and control) in Russia is no more to be admired than elsewhere.
        
        It is a worldwide class war and a multi-polar world provides no benefit in this regard.
        
        Anonymous on October 24, 2015 · at 4:08 pm EST/EDT
        
        Anti- Imperialism is as good a place as any to start. Consciousness will heighten as we go.
        RR
        
        RR on October 23, 2015 · at 6:54 am EST/EDT
        
        I think you underestimate the siloviki-or Putin would not be in office. The New Swift, de-dolarization the AIIB etc….
        Cheers,
        RR
Outlaw Historian on October 18, 2015 · at 4:34 pm EST/EDT

Moon of Alabama reports: “The civil airport in Latakia has been closed to civil traffic and will be used by the Russian airforce to support the upcoming attack. This is necessary as the average number of sorties a small airport with one landing strip can handle is only about 100 sorties per day. With a second active airport now available some 200 to 300 sorties/day will be available to support the Syrian army. The Syrian airforce will of cause add its own capacity to these numbers.”

There are also two excellent reports about the military offensive targeting Idlib and Aleppo, with excellent situational maps,
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2015/10/the-battle-of-idleb-part-1-the-northern-hama-plain.html
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2015/10/syria-the-new-south-aleppo-campaign.html

Here’s a report about the war crime committed by the Outlaw Empire’s attack on the power station near Aleppo, http://www.moonofalabama.org/2015/10/syria-the-new-south-aleppo-campaign.html#c6a00d8341c640e53ef01b7c7df4a73970b

Clearly, the Deep State’s ambitious plan as detailed in Vision 2020 to rule the planet is smashed by their own hubris, likely creating an existential crisis within the group. Instead, they hope to recoup by challenging China’s South China Sea positions that China has said it will use military means to defend–that’s where the Roosevelt’s going. It’s this upcoming event that has kept China from doing more in Syria. Nothing favorable is happening for the Empire, and that’s great! But I do expect something to happen in South Asia since the Outlaw Empire’s moved some of its Daesh assets there to invade the Central Asian stans.

Is Obama “sulking” because he has looked at what he’s done as Putin suggested and retched? Maybe he’s appraised his presidency and is disgusted with what the Deep State had him do? The new leaks are as damaging as they’re damning. For Obama, 20 Jan 2017 can’t come soon enough. When you’re a megalomaniac and fail in your quest, the only direction that can be taken is retreat.
- anon on October 18, 2015 · at 9:45 pm EST/EDT
  
  The “civilian” airport mentioned is the same one as the “military” one.
  Most likey just an internet echo chamber …
- Ann on October 19, 2015 · at 3:41 am EST/EDT
  
  I wonder that he can sleep at night. There’s no retreat from your conscience. Unless you don’t have one.
  - Uncle Bob 1 on October 19, 2015 · at 5:27 am EST/EDT
    
    Most people like him think they are right.Most evil people don’t consider themselves evil.They think they do what needs to be done for their side (and of course themselves).Mafia Don’s or other crime bosses,”justify” their actions in their own minds.Political leaders are no different.(in fact they resemble each other quite a bit.Remember the Capone quip that the biggest “gang” in Chicago was the police.).
    - Mulga Mumblebrain on October 19, 2015 · at 9:29 am EST/EDT
      
      Bob, the worst of the worst in the West, the Cheneys, Rumsfelds et al, know that they are evil, but our evil is their good. That is why Western elites have been so interested in diabolism and Satanic rituals for so long. A sure sign of this influence is the prevalence of paedophilia in the West, and the involvement of elites in this abomination, the very tip of the ice-berg being seen in the Westminster paedophile activity so very partially exposed after concerted elite resistance and police complicity. Paedophilia might sate certain outrageous sexual perversions, but it also exists on a non-sexual plane, as an act of pure evil, in which one indulges in order to touch the diabolical sphere, wherein, so the theories go, one might tap into certain powers that bestow advantage in the world. The Nazis, so many of whom ran away to the West and worked for the CIA et al for decades, were also enthusiasts for Satanism.
      - Priapus on October 19, 2015 · at 7:35 pm EST/EDT
        
        Check this out: http://vigilantcitizen.com/ .
        It’s a very good site on the western media satanistic customs and coreography.
Raven on October 18, 2015 · at 5:09 pm EST/EDT

The reason for flexing muscles (using 26 Kalibr missiles) has not been fighting terrorists in Syria or makeing Roosevelt leaving the Persian Gulf (somewhat hiding in the nothern Indian Ocean). Not at all.

But instead it’s been a nice and friendly way showing european vasalls of the Empire of the Devil, there is no sense in upgrading or extending ABM (GBI) in Poland / Czech Republic or right next to St. Petersburg in the Baltics. Even when using rockets possibly able to reach Mars or the Sun – Kalibr instead will fly just some 50m above ground and, from the Caspian sea, where there’s no chance at all to counter russian activities, could already cover nowadays Ukraine, the Black Sea and south-eastern Europe (Balkan). If launched in oblast Kursk or Belgorod, almost all of western Europe (except Spain) is covered, and there is no measure against Kalibr – regardless of any ABM.

There’s a second message included: up until last weekend nobody imagined Russia being able to build/construct missiles. Expected range of russian Kalibr was set to some 500km. Of course at least every second russian! Kalibre wouldn’t take off at all. And now, there is clear evidence: Kalibre may cover a distance of up to 2500km and (after a little more than 90-120 minutes) will hit the point with less than 3m deviation (you may set the clock accordingly). And, more of it, not a single failure. Pure horror!

And, best of it all, third message: there is no military defensive measure – it’s technically / physically impossible to counter a supersonic missile (>1 mach) running just above the ground with any, even faster running ABM. Of course there is a very cheap and very easy to achieve defensive measure: stay friends with Russia! But, hurry up, the clock is running down!

That‘s been the message(s). The russian bear almost accidentally alluded what’s already in it’s pockets. There’s no doubt, the european (vassals) got the message.

Thus, if there will be anything more showing up next time, in Syria or elsewhere, it will be the clock running down. (IMHO the Northamerican clock already has.)

Dear Saker, it’s time to move back to where you are belonging to!

P.S. Russia already announced re-settlement of a permanent airbase in Latakia, i.e. right at the border of the EEU/EAEU.)
- zweistein on October 18, 2015 · at 7:21 pm EST/EDT
  
  And to think that the Kalibr is just one of many new Russian high tech weapons systems recently introduced or soon to be introduced…
- Uncle Bob 1 on October 19, 2015 · at 5:49 pm EST/EDT
  
  Haha,I thought the same on those points.A good “demonstration” is sometimes an excellent learning tool.
blue on October 18, 2015 · at 6:43 pm EST/EDT

A US problem is that the factionalization in government, corporations, intelligence agencies, and various other components preclude any integrated strategy, and so power, both political and military, is dissipated and at cross purposes, and deflected by the ignorance and propaganda.

There is also the problem of those who are taken aback by Putin’s ‘surprises’ and are afraid of what might be next — with the possibilities too complex for them to analyze, not even considering what the Chinese might do (direct actions not being the only possibility, and yet possible even if unlikely). Between believing their own propaganda and the breakdown of good intelligence systems, and general ignorance among the politicians who are incompetent, effective planning can’t be done.

But overall is the problem that the US is trying to do the wrong things in moral and ethical, and even geopolitical organizational terms for how a functional empire must be constructed. It’s a cluster-frog, slowly boiling in its own juices, without even intellectual integrity. The US has become structurally and systemically stupid. That doesn’t mean it’s not dangerous, and perhaps even more so, but it can’t possibly succeed in it’s disparate goals.
- ol on October 18, 2015 · at 8:49 pm EST/EDT
  
  your comment sparked thought for me.
  there is ample information about ‘compartmentalising’ in the CIA,
  the ‘need to know’ meme.
  
  so 16, count them, intelligence agencies (does that include homeland security?),
  are they operating on the same mindset?
  also given the tendency of some individuals’ desire
  to build little kingdoms in big organisations….
  is it any wonder their is such disfunctioning.
  
  i remember they even blamed that for the failures
  on detecting 9/11. hah!
  
  in the movie cool hand Luke when he kept escaping,
  the boss man always said “this is a failure to communicate!”
- MidaFo on October 19, 2015 · at 3:42 pm EST/EDT
  
  True blue
  The cluster frog bit in particular.
  Many blame Obama not the cluster. This is used by the great Demockery to avoid responsibility as in New President, New Start.
  Neat trick. Old trick.
  Truth is the USA (cluster frog) must be held fully responsible for what has happened in Obama’s time. Same applies for all time but let us start with Obama.
  This means the USA is no longer viable.
Red Ryder on October 18, 2015 · at 6:49 pm EST/EDT

There are two salient facts of Russian military performance.

Putin spoke of the Kaliber missiles making 147 turns on the their paths to their targets. This demonstrated not only excellence of the missile motor and warhead, but the Glonnass Satelitte guidance and the embedded software programming. Truly terrifying excellence.

The performance of the attack aircraft, including the Mi-24’s attacking at such low levels. This is not only offensive systems of awesome power and lethality, it is the superb piloting skill and courage of the Russian crews. Again, it is stunning to see the excellence of the military performing far from home, solely as professionals executing their skills and verifying the Russian military training and exercising programs.

None of this is a fabrication or produced by propaganda. It is real and it is top of the world class.

Add in night flights, precision bombing, excellent Intel and you have the RF military demonstrating that it can take 1000 men and turn back the tide of ISIS warfare capability.

The US and NATO now know what will resist them if they stumble into conflict with Russia. The sponsors of ISIS also can see that their spawn is doomed.

Putin will kill them all. That is the mission, as it was in Chechnya.
- zweistein on October 18, 2015 · at 7:28 pm EST/EDT
  
  The Russians have managed to ‘turn off’ the military level of GPS over Russian territory while leaving the civil mode unaffected. Just think how long GPS would work when things get tough.
Ngoyo on October 18, 2015 · at 7:45 pm EST/EDT

Its very interesting that Putin has, a priori, excluded the possibility of Russian boots on the ground in Syria. This must mean that 1) there is a firm commitment from Iran to enter the conflict should things unravel and 2) that Russia is prepared to commit massive air and naval resources in support of the SAA and the Iranians. Otherwise it would not make any sense for Russia to limit its potential options in advance, especially before the Empire has made its move.

What Iran really needs from Russia is airlift to Syria (avoid any possibility of the Empire attacking their forces in transit over Iraq) and supply of modern weaponry. Both would have to be massive. Presumably Putin has already concluded such a deal with the Iranians.
Louis on October 18, 2015 · at 8:51 pm EST/EDT

The Us carrier leaving the Persian Gulf might a sign that Israël is about to attack Iran.
- Ann on October 19, 2015 · at 3:44 am EST/EDT
  
  what a joke Louis…what are you smoking ?
  - Mulga Mumblebrain on October 19, 2015 · at 9:37 am EST/EDT
    
    Ann, I wouldn’t dismiss the possibility. Satan-yahoo is pure Evil, and unstable. He has all the Zionazi Oded Yinon and his own ‘A Clean Break’ plans for the destruction of Syria riding on events. The way he is stoking the uprising in Israel indicates that he is looking for an excuse for a new massacre. For a mad-man making a crazy bet, attacking Iran might seem like a ‘circuit-breaker’. Once you could rely on the level-heads in the Israeli military-intelligence elites to stop political craziness, but those elites have been more and more infiltrated by religious lunatics linked to the ‘settler’ Judaic Taliban over recent years.
    - Ann on October 20, 2015 · at 5:41 am EST/EDT
      
      hmm. well, I just can’t see it. Neytaneeawho ? is a chicken dressed as a hawk….
RR on October 18, 2015 · at 9:18 pm EST/EDT

America will ensure Russian people’s resolve with the next terrorist attack. You can count on that. Do not the Russian people realize that both the Ukraine and Syria are attacks on them? I find this rather doubtful.
RR on October 18, 2015 · at 10:04 pm EST/EDT

Russian Secret Weapon Deployed in Syria

The technology in question seems similar to the KRET Richag-AV system, although it apparently functions on a larger scale. A tactical version of this system was presented to journalists in the Russian city of Back in April 2015. As Sputnik reported then:

“The Richag-AV system, mounted on the Mi-8MTPR1 (a variant of the Mi-8MTB5-1 helicopter) is said to have no global equivalent. Its electronic countermeasures system is designed to jam radar, sonar and other detection systems in the aims of defending aircraft, helicopters, drones, ground and naval forces against air-to-air and surface-to-air defense systems within a radius of several hundred kilometers. It can be mounted on units from any branch of the armed forces, including helicopters and airplanes, as well as ground and ship-based forces. The Mi8-MTPR1-based Richag-AV platform, using multi-beam antenna arrays with DRFM technology, is designed to actively jam and thus ‘blind’ radar systems in order to defend against radio-electronic guided weapons systems. In a combat situation, the system would operate as part of an aviation shock attack group aimed at breaking through virtually any defense system, blinding everything up to and including the US MIM-104 ‘Patriot’ anti-aircraft missile system.”[i]

NATO supreme commander and US Air Force General Philip Breedlove was probably talking about this new KRET system when he addressed the German Marshall Fund on Monday, September 28. Here Breedlove had warned that Russia was creating an “A2/AD bubble” over the Syrian coast, and the eastern Mediterranean. A2/AD is the abbreviation for anti-access and area denial. Breedlove pointed out that Russia has already established such bubbles over the Baltic Sea at the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, and also over the Crimea and the black Sea.

‘While Russia’s stated goal in moving into Syria is to fight the Islamic State, NATO’s top commander believes Russia’s new presence includes the first pieces of an intricate layer of defensive systems deployed to hinder U.S. and coalition operations in the region. “As we see the very capable air defense [systems] beginning to show up in Syria, we’re a little worried about another A2/AD bubble being created in the eastern Mediterranean,” said Breedlove to an audience at the German Marshall Fund Monday. A2/AD stands for anti-access/area denial. During the early stages of warfare, A2/AD could have been a moat around a castle, or spikes dug into the ground—anything to keep the enemy off a certain swathe of territory. In the 21st century, however, A2/AD is a combination of systems such as surface-to-air missile batteries and anti-ship missiles deployed to prevent forces from entering or traversing a certain area—from land, air or sea. According to Breedlove, the introduction of an A2/AD bubble in Syria would be Russia’s third denial zone around Europe. The first and oldest he said, was in the Baltics where the Russian naval base in Kaliningrad has robust anti-air capabilities. The second zone—originating from Russian-occupied Crimea—covers the Black Sea. “Russia has developed a very strong A2/AD capability in the Black Sea,” said Breedlove. “Essentially their [anti-ship] cruise missiles range the entire Black Sea, and their air defense missiles range about 40 to 50 percent of the Black Sea.”’[ii]
tarpley.net
elsi on October 18, 2015 · at 10:23 pm EST/EDT

Searching for aerodromes in Syria?
Well, as I am aware from what I saw travelling there, I do not know if it would be possible to land in a place like this one:

http://www.alovelyworld.com/photos/websyrie/gimage/syr104.jpg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cm08LQNYNZo

I remember a similar “Bagad Café” located in a similar field in the road to Irak. I do not know if, considering the location of ISIS forces, this place would be more easily accesible from Irak or from Syria ( I do not know so well Syrian or Iraqi geography ) but, if it were from Irak, and Irak is near also to ask for Russian assistance, perhaps could be negotiated an earlier access?…..
- Uncle Bob 1 on October 19, 2015 · at 5:34 am EST/EDT
  
  It is an interesting fact that real “jihadi” are “supposed” to be Holy Warriors,martyring themselves for God.And yet except for those tricked into suicide bombings,the others seem to flee from real fighting when they would certainly die.I’m not sure what kind of a “martyr” that would make them.
  - mmiriww on October 19, 2015 · at 7:43 am EST/EDT
    
    The combat footage shows these terrorists not very good fighters. They seem as immature as the SAA recruits who are also not trained. There is a very small number of highly trained by US forces who use US tactics to capture bases and then move onto the next one while the ones who just come for the money man the captured bases, they were getting killed like flies. You can see they had no combat training and were only shooting for the sake of shooting. Of course having RPG’s and TOW missiles anyone can be Rambo. But close in fighting would show tactics and who have training. I think once the RUAF bombs out the defensive positions, those inside would run like chickens. I think the actual number of trained terrorists number under 10000. Ofcourse those can take over large territory when going up against just recruits as we saw in Iraq. After a few months it would only be these 10K the SAA would be facing. Those Iranian troops are not Iranian, they are Iraqi and Syrians who were moved to iran to train, same as when Syrians gave up land and sent those troops to Russia to train. All those troops are now back after an year. It looks like some cauldrons are also forming and looks similar to what happened in the donbas. Russians seem to be very good at this tactic.. They defeated the imperial Japanese army twice using the same tactics and even the germans in Stalingrad but you need trained troops to do it or they themselves get trapped. I think these troops going to train in Russia and Iran and the terrorists capturing land areas made the US think the SAA was failing. So Putin had this planned ever since the Iranian general went to plan this to Moscow last year.
- elsi on October 19, 2015 · at 8:11 pm EST/EDT
  
  Bedouins in Palmira area is sure to know the area well and, after seeing what ISIS did to their historical heritage, I’m sure they’re on our side. These people have always been honorable, and could make good explorers looking for places to land ….
Robert on October 18, 2015 · at 10:32 pm EST/EDT

The suggestion that the terrorists operating in Syria may resort to guerrilla tactics. Guerrilla’s fight for a combination of reasons and rewards. The strongest being the battle for their homeland against a foreign invader. The Kurds could be said to have this rationale in Syria as did the Taliban and Vietnamese.

It seems that many or most of the most potent terrorists are from other countries and are likely fighting in Syria for money, power, opportunities for rape and pillage and shear blood lust. Creatures such as these enjoy taking life but are not so keen when the odds of death are stacked against them.

In my opinion the Kurds have a valid claim and this could be used by Syria to their advantage. Grant the Kurds autonomy or even independence as an ally of Syria. This would both be a dagger in the back of the US designed ISIL and rather a large problem for Turkey as well.

If amongst the bombed out wreckage of the US inspired chaos in Syria there can be found dead US/NATO/Israeli, Saudi military advisers as well it will be a rather large bonus.
- mmiriww on October 19, 2015 · at 10:08 am EST/EDT
  
  I was watching some of these guys just killing kids in their homes. Just shooting civilians, push them out of their living room and shoot them dead. While cartoons are playing on TV. Now why people are not running when these guys are attacking is beyond me but there were only a few soldiers to be seen who are getting killed and these guys went from house to house and killing the civilians once they finished off the soldiers. lots of Allah Akbar chants in the middle of this as well. Did not see any women so I think they taken the women alive, but did not see them take any men alive, although they would yell for the men to come out and then shoot them. These must be the moderate terrorists the US is funding and arming. I think people need to watch a few of these videos to understand what the people are facing and why no one surrenders now but fight even if they wont survive. Even villages fight rather than surrender after what happened before. The SAA is close to freeing 2 villages that’s been surrounded for the last year.
  - Uncle Bob 1 on October 19, 2015 · at 6:00 pm EST/EDT
    
    Yes,it was those type of videos that showed me the truth of the Syrian War.I think at first civilians there just couldn’t visualize that type of pure evil.So they didn’t run at first.Once the word spread what was really happening they began to run,and then fight back.Sometimes we humans just don’t want to believe some are that evil.And it takes examples to show us,before we believe.
    - Mulga Mumblebrain on October 19, 2015 · at 11:29 pm EST/EDT
      
      Bob, the videos from Syria from the very beginning showed these takfiri scum screeching Allahu Akbar over and over, like some demented mantra. That told you immediately that these were Wahhabist vermin, not ‘Jeffersonian’ ‘moderates’ as the Western MSM lie-machine was saying. But the Western MSM presstitutes closed their ears to it all. The Western propagandists still repeat the lies that Assad is responsible for the war, for the vast bulk of the casualties and has no support inside Syria. I sometimes fantasize that the perfect solution to this disaster would be to drop the takfiris and their Western supporters on some isolated island, and let them enjoy a mutual admiration love-fest.
RR on October 18, 2015 · at 10:37 pm EST/EDT

World Crisis Radio
October 17, 2015
With Reports from Thierry Meyssan in Damascus and Stanislav Byshok in Moscow
Meyssan has been in Damascus for the past 4 years….
RR
anon on October 18, 2015 · at 10:37 pm EST/EDT

Excellent article Saker. Thank you so much for the priceless information you provide to us.
God Bless and guide you, Mother Russia and President Putin.
blue on October 19, 2015 · at 12:54 am EST/EDT

Incidental and OT, but there are some nifty videos ‘from the left’ at https://www.youtube.com/user/ThePublicVoiceSalon. (I’m listening to Public Voice Salon. Episode No. 98. November 22, 2014. Bertell Ollman.mov at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjvmdlKYQbk that’s pretty good. Ollman as the guy who Michael Hudson was responding to at the World Congress on Marxism, 2015, at the School of Marxism, Peking University, October 10, 2015. (Thanks Eimar for the lead to http://www.unz.com/mhudson/the-paradox-of-financialized-industrialization/ ).

Also, a new video with Chomsky at
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_G0ILhcMGeI
Al Jazeera World – Noam Chomsky: Knowledge and Power
- RR on October 19, 2015 · at 7:51 pm EST/EDT
  
  Always loved Ollman although it has been years since I read him.
  One of the few Marxists scholars in American academy. For all the talk of leftist this and liberal that only around 10% of scholars in American Academy were ever Marxist.
  RR
Terry on October 19, 2015 · at 1:07 am EST/EDT

I’m still waiting to see a good analysis of the MH17 “Final Report” and what it really said.

Did they finally release the Flight Data Recorder and Cockpit Voice Recorder details? Was the warhead around 33Kg (air-to-air) or 100Kg (ground launched, probably BUK)? How many “H” shaped fragments were found in the bodies and embedded in aircraft components?

How did they explain the many large round holes all of approximately the same size obviously made by cannon fire, probably 30mm? Or did they simply not address that?

Did they send an observer to the Russian BUK test on the IL86 cockpit? Did they at least review and compare the results? Including where the missile would have to come from for the donut shaped shrapnel to impact the aircraft in that pattern?

It has been remarkable quiet on this issue, with the MSM simply picking up on the “Russian made missile” – all BUK missiles are made in Russia, including those operated by Ukraine – to impute that the Novorossian militias fired the missile with Russian assistance without actually saying so.

I have my own opinion, which is that Saker’s original analysis about MH17 being hit by an air-to-air missile by a SU25 and finished off with its 30mm cannon is correct. Likely an Israeli Python missile which targets the cockpit on large aircraft. It takes time to read and analyze a report, and review the reactions of third parties like the Russian military and BUK manufacturer, so I’m hoping to see an updated review and analysis from Saker in due course.
eagle eye on October 19, 2015 · at 1:20 am EST/EDT

All respect to the close and careful observers looking at this from a strictly military perspective but the best explanation I can see for the behaviour of the US leadership is found not in military or diplomatic, or even political forms but in psychological terms.

The US is under the spell of an arch narcissist, Israel, and the cult behind it, which fits the requirements of the DSM 5 for narcissism quite neatly. Reading around the characteristics and behavior of narcissists is very instructive if one does so while considering the behavior of those behind the Zionist agenda.

The US has been running the agenda for the narcissistic Israel for a long time, along with other willing dupes like Australia, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia et al. The Russian action has taken Israel by surprise and the dupes are waiting for a lead to be given. The Israelis are unsure of how to respond, having been blocked comprehensively by the Russian presence and the comprehensive demonstration of military superiority.

What generally happens when a narcissist cannot get their own way is they lash out, often without any rational pattern, at those they see as impeding their sense of entitlement. That response can be extreme, and ultimately self destructive.

In the meantime, considerable damage gets done to the dupes as a result of the behaviour they have allowed themselves to be party to.

Buckle up folks, its going to be one hell of a show.
- Mulga Mumblebrain on October 19, 2015 · at 10:00 am EST/EDT
  
  eagle eye, the group narcissism and xenophobia of Judaism has been a double-edged weapon. It has kept the Jews more or less united for 35 centuries, give or take, while all their original contemporaries in Canaan have disappeared, absorbed or exterminated by later-comers. However it also inculcates habits of dominance over other groups, exploitation of non-Jews, feelings of absolute superiority over non-Jews, and extreme belligerence when dealing with non-Jews, that have bred Judeophobia over all those centuries.
  The dominance of Jewish Fifth Columns in the West means that this Judeophobia is ALWAYS presented as a one-way street, with wonderful, guiltless, Jews, only dedicated to peaceful existence, attacked for no reason but malevolence and envy, by primitive bigots. To argue that the Jews, or sections of Jewish society, have ever, in any way, contributed anything to the conflict, is, of course, vile ‘antisemitism’ and instantly silenced.
  So we must believe that in different societies, over centuries, ruled by different systems and believing different religions, the Judeophobia that so often arose has ALWAYS been the fault ENTIRELY of the non-Jews. It just does not compute, but that is what we must not only believe, but say so if ever interrogated. The Jews certainly are not responsible for ALL the conflicts they have been involved in, but even less believable is that they NEVER have contributed to them. It is just so thoroughly unpleasant to be expected to treat one tiny group as different from and superior to the rest of humanity (particularly when you believe strongly in human equality)and to be abused if you ever dare not to do so.
Ann on October 19, 2015 · at 3:14 am EST/EDT

Hi Saker ! Great article thanks alot for it. Good news, but could be better I guess…I hope Syrian army gets a major victory right now…I wonder what that would look like ? Aleppo being ‘cleansed’ of its filthy parasites I guess would be a major victory.

I hope the Air Base in Latakia is properly defended…and gets bigger soon. I think the ME needs Russian support for a few years still…then there might be normalicy in the region again…can you imagine…
Alexis TK27 on October 19, 2015 · at 10:05 am EST/EDT

A few points to build up on this analysis:

1. Absence of any US carrier in Persian Gulf was announced back beginning of August, therefore it CAN’T be the result of Russian cruise missile volley which took place beginning of October – some two months later.
See e.g. this link “U.S. won’t have aircraft carrier in Persian Gulf for at least 2 months”, dated August 5th : http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/05/politics/no-aircraft-carrier-persian-gulf-iran/
The provided rationale was: “The official said that’s because the Navy has to schedule needed maintenance after years of extended deployments and because of reduced spending due to mandatory budget cuts.”
Anyway, Persian Gulf remains under control of US aircraft based in Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait etc. which could be reinforced in case of need.

2. It is to be hoped that the US do not attack Russian aircraft in Syria. That being said, not only candidates like Clinton are openly flouting such ideas, US strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski is on record that the US should send an ultimatum to Russia to stop attacking those Syrian rebels supported by the US (that is: all save Islamic State and JAN), under penalty of the US “disarming” the Russian base in Lattakia – meaning of course attacking it.
See for yourself: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c1ec2488-6aa8-11e5-8171-ba1968cf791a.html#axzz3p0O9WR3e (dated October 5th)
This is impressive since Brzezinski has generally refrained from mindless go-to-war “Grr Waf Waf Patriotism”. He is a strategic thinker and wants the US to use force only when its strategic interests are really threatened. Now this man is adamant that this is the time for US to risk a shooting war against Russia.
Brzezinski is without official power, but he is not without influence. Even more, the fact that he thinks this way is strong indication that other people, closer to active power circles, may think the same.
Probability of US attacking the Lattakia Russian base I would say remains relatively low. But it is certainly NOT neglectible.

3. Should the US choose such policy and attack the Russian base in Lattakia, a few things are sure, many more are HIGHLY unpredictable.
a) On the “Sure” list:
– None of the two countries would use nuclear weapons. Stakes are just way too low for that. Similarly, neither the 1999 Indo-Pakistan war nor the 1969 Soviet-Chinese war did result in nuclear use
– None of the two countries would wage the slightest attack on territory of the other. That would be way too dangerous, risking escalation towards nuclear use
– The Russian base in Lattakia would be incapacitated / destroyed and Russia would lose that battle
– US forces would pay a hefty price for their victory
b) On the “Unpredictable” list is… well all the rest!
– Beginning with Russia’s follow-on. Russia losing a battle wouldn’t mean the war to be over. Moscow would retaliate in basically unpredictable ways on other topics and other battlefields in the world, sooner or later, overtly or covertly. Question is: if you challenge Russian strategists to come up with creative ways to harm US interests worldwide while minimizing the risks to Russia, what will they invent? Nobody knows, not even them, since they have not received such challenge yet
– Reaction of other major powers would be… well, something to watch. Thinking primarily about China, which may well freak out and engage in a massive military buildup… or do nothing on the surface and wait for America to further weaken itself while comforting Moscow with words, plus just enough support to avoid Russia to abandon the fight.
– Also the Europeans: acquiescence of majority of European populations to let America define their foreign policy for them and then follow it more or less willingly or grudgingly is based on the idea that this arrangement is simple, cheap and above all safe. Washington doing something as radical as attacking Russian forces over policy disagreements in what in European eyes is a second or third-rate country would shatter that idea, if not collapse it entirely. Then it would be replaced… with what?
– Same question might be asked about the Japanese.
Brzezinski’s recommended course of action would lead to quick albeit costly victory, however as for the future would open so large uncertainties that I would say his (and other’s) advice will probably be ignored. Starting a war with Russia, even a relatively small one, is not how one can win an American election.

That being said, surprises do exist, and sometimes advices for “strategic boldness” (as Brzezinski puts it) are followed for good. So you never know. And then, even if nothing happens before the US election, the days after may be much more dangerous for Russian forces in Syria… which probably won’t be out of the country then, let’s face it: too many external powers are too much interested to continue fueling the flames of Syrian civil war for it to be won – by anybody – in a single year’s timeframe.
- blue on October 19, 2015 · at 5:01 pm EST/EDT
  
  Brzezinski is also 87, which might mean his mind is not quite what it was — nothing definite or inevitable of course, but even at my tender age I notice some effects and have to wonder what another 20 years would do to me. Senility at that age is no longer premature, and he may not be quite up on the current situation. But he was always on the crazy side anyway, and he’s at ‘never trust anyone over 30’ almost 3 times over now.
  - Mulga Mumblebrain on October 19, 2015 · at 11:34 pm EST/EDT
    
    Zbig ain’t just crazy-he exudes Evil like a miasma.
Tamonten on October 19, 2015 · at 5:04 pm EST/EDT

Leonid Ivashov quoting Bashar al-Assad: “We will pray for Putin”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFoQhkvRPHE
grrr on October 19, 2015 · at 8:43 pm EST/EDT

Your statements:
1) I want to believe that there are enough mentally sane men in the JCS and Pentagon to reject any plan which can end up triggering a nuclear war between Russia and the USA.

followed by
2) The “sulking superpower”…

are disturbingly contradictory.
- Ann on October 21, 2015 · at 5:52 am EST/EDT
  
  Hi Cassandra…is that you ? I think sulking superpower describes Hillary Clinton et al very well….
3k3 on October 20, 2015 · at 6:15 pm EST/EDT

this report is worth reading because it is a good sitrep as to current and recent actions, but more valuable because it is forward looking.

and there, in the immediate future, things look very bleak for any successful and public military response inside Syria proper by the USA neocons.

but they must act, and they have over relied upon their covert and mercenary forces for the last 4 years at least, and this tactic is fading in effect. and they are constrained by the mass migration into EU, to stop butchering so many peaceful syrian villages. so what is left– their favorite standby to overturn the game board and deal themselves a new hand:

false flag.

i think it would have to be in the US or in a NATO nation. although saker mentions the possibility of an “atrocity” in Syria. still, it’s hard to say what kind of “atrocity” would be compelling to the jaded, powerless, and indifferent american MSM TV watchers. who don’t have enough factual information to comprehend either the list of real players or the real action on the field.

one thing is for sure, this current american neocon sulk will not last, nor are we capable of declaring victory and going home. i wonder if the most useful false flag would not be in the asian or south american region, so that we could use the cover story of needing to focus all our military in the new battlefield.

there is always the alien invasion FF, but the time is not ripe for that ancient strategy. and the reaction of the publics is not totally predictable. chaos here at home, is not useful to the neocons while they are holding and expanding the cabal central bank empire in other places. and that is the redline of attack–does the next victim have a compliant *privately* owned (cabal owned) central bank, which is obedient to BIS in switzerland, and permits unrestricted capital movements in and out–this is required for asset takeover by the cabal.
- RR on October 23, 2015 · at 7:43 am EST/EDT
  
  A big explosion in Israel might to the trick, lol