Summary for our preschool readers:
The fighting in Mar’inka wasn’t a general offensive by either side, but rather a series of small
attacks/counter-attacks amid heavy artillery fire. In the end, both sides are pretty much where they started, losses seem comparable. Donetsk was randomly shelled by UAF, as per usual. Overall, exact same pattern of escalating tug-of-war that we saw in Donetsk airport last fall.
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The reports yesterday were extremely confusing: sources on both sides reported attacking and defending, winning and losing – all at the same time.
Literally, there were multiple sources on both sides claiming anything from “we’ve been kicked out of Mar’inka with serious losses” to “We took Mar’inka, the enemy suffered huge losses”.
Mass media were no help as usual, Western MSM mindlessly parroting the UAF spokesman’s boasting, and Russians doing the same for the DPR.
Videos from the fighting just showed somebody shooting at something, somewhere.
Thankfully, OSCE cleared the fog of war a bit with their spot report, even if it was done in their trademark style of “we just talk about DPR actions because we it just so happened we were only watching them; we will mention in the middle of the sentence in the third paragraph, in passing, that UAF hit Donetsk with a hundred heavy-artillery rounds at 4:30am (which is the exact point the fighting broke out – what a coincidence)”.
This was followed by a “latest report” that had a “ceasefire violations table” attached, which indicates OSCE recorded ~150 artillery and MLRS rounds fired by the UAF, ~230 fired by the DPR, and ~200 where they were not sure. They have also spotted something like 12 DPR tanks and 8 UAF tanks or SPHs.
Combining this report with messages from various people on the ground (in chronological order), we can be reasonably sure of what happened. In short, sources on both sides did not agree who was winning or losing because, during the day, combat rocked back and forth.
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The fighting started in the early morning.
4:30 am is the point when OSCE detected the start of UAF shelling of Donetsk and start of DPR artillery strikes on UAF positions, but it is likely that smaller clashes in Mar’inka – using small-arms, grenade launchers, and light mortars – started some time prior (in fact, they never really stopped, at least in the previous few days).
Stages:
1. (Possible UAF attack) UAF infantry may have assaulted the DPR positions first, in the early morning; several separate DPR sources claim this, but there is no rock-solid evidence. Both sides certainly shelled each other.
2. (DPR counter-offensive) Either way, it appears DPR forces in Mar’inka quickly recovered, called in infantry and armor reinforcements, and counterattacked (according to DPR sources, they initially tried to close in with the enemy to prevent UAF artillery from firing – for fear of hitting their own forces – but when the UAF started retreating, this turned into “let’s see how much ground we can take”).
3. (DPR hold most of Mar’inka) The DPR advance got additional reinforcements and went well. By midday (very rough estimate), UAF forces were pushed to the western edge of Mar’inka. DPR reinforcements from Donetsk actually started attacking the next town of Kurahovo, trying to silence the artillery that has been shelling them and Donetsk from there.
This was the high-water mark of DPR “probing attack” and the reason the panicked messages from Kiev side / triumphant reports from DPR.
4. (UAF counter-offensive) However, just like at the “tug-of-war” we’ve seen in the Donetsk airport in the fall, the close-combat victories of the rebels in one location were meaningless without a strategic plan and silencing UAF artillery in surrounding positions.
UAF gunners were ready and zeroed in on the forward UAF positions the rebels took, and UAF soon responded with several large counterattacks, also including plenty of armor. When the dust settled, the artillery-battered rebels were more or less pushed back to where they started.
This is the reason for “we’ve been pushed back by Ukie attack” reports from the rebels and Kiev messages saying they have effortlessly defeated the “Russo-terroristic armies” (I’m not kidding, this is the official term they use nowadays).
5. (UAF hold most of Mar’inka) At this point (around 5 pm), both sides have taken considerable losses (DPR acknowledged 15 KIA and 84 WIA, Kiev acknowledged 4 KIA and 42 WIA – real losses are likely 50% higher for DPR and 200%+ higher for Kiev, as usual), and agreed to stop attacking each other.
What conclusions can we make:
A) Minsk-2 truce is very shaky, both sides seem increasingly liberal with using heavy weapons and conducting offensives and counter-offensives.
B) For now, we can not conclusively blame either side for this flare-up. The whole thing appears to be a case of escalating tit-for-tat exchanges, with both sides being quick to up the ante.
C) UAF are staying true to their trademark “when in doubt, drop single shells all around Donetsk for no military reason” terror shelling habit (see list of hits here ). At the same time, DPR have also hit both civilian houses and checkpoints yesterday, but at least their fire is always aimed to a zipcode with military targets in it. OSCE confirms both of these things, no one cares.
D) Absent some progress in implementation of Minsk-2 conditions, this scenario will likely repeat and soon lead to renewed hostilities.
Chief problem, as I see it, is that the sides were forced to sign the truce by Russia and EU virtually in gunpoint. In fact, the rebels have no real desire to surrender to Kiev, and Kiev usurpers have no real desire to stop the war – it is the only thing distracting the population from the myriad failures of the new government in all other matters . As a result, rebels refuse to disarm or let Kiev control the Russian border, Kiev refuses to lift the food/medicine/economic blockade, or release political prisoners. No progress has been made in implementation of Minsk-2 agreements for months, and absent some major pressure from both West and Russia, none will be.
Fortunately, Poroshenko has all the answers…
as long idiot lavrov is trumpeting that usa wants better relationship with russia,the novorussians will never get real help and will be back stabbed when they are winning the real battle.
The ‘Lavrov as traitor’ meme really doesn’t make sense. He is just doing the job he was trained for. He is like a lion tamer trying to rub the temples of a very cross lion to calm it down and try to tone down the anti-Russia hysteria. Think of him like a kind of Dr. Feel Good who hands out chill pills like they were candy. Yup, he is like a doctor trying to treat a patient with distemper with his cool, calm, dispassionate manner.
Givi, on the other hand, is not very diplomatic. Because his job is to kick somebody’s ass. He calls Ukrops who invade his territory *retards*. Lavrov would never say that.
Lavrov is a diplomat. Givi is a soldier. Some commentators are trolls. Everyone has their role ;)
I really hope things don’t escalate again, but I suppose that’s just my wishful thinking.
It’s like there’s a giant hole being dug in the Donbas, and there’s no way to climb out.
And, that hole is going to be filled with the blood of many, from both sides.
What an awful tragedy this is………
This is all being orchestrated out of Kiev (either with or without US prodding) on the eve of the sanctions being up for re-instatement; once they are continued (and it is a good bet that they will) they may scale it back again, or go for the push – the goal always being to get Russia to respond overtly and militarily.
A shameful time to be an American…of course, the more you look into the past, you begin to realize it has always been so.
Slightly off topic but here is the hypocrisy and lies of Harper of Harperland™ (formerly know as Canada):
“Whether it takes five months or 50 years, this country and the Western world — the free world — will never recognize the occupation of Crimea or any other Ukrainian soil by Russia — never,” Harper said”
“Canada would never agree to allow Russia back into the G7 as long as Vladimir Putin is president, Prime Minister Stephen Harper said Thursday”
Note to Harper: try hard, very hard, to imagine how little Putin cares what you think.You are insignificant and very likely to get ‘regime-changed ‘ come October with a return of the former Canada shortly after.
Always, absolutely always, when Harper speaks foreign policy he speaks on behalf of Netanyahu.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/canada-never-let-russia-under-putin-back-g7-215828615.html
I hope your right, but I would draw your attention to a sudden string, of unexpected and unpredicted polling day swings in favour of pro empire incumbents/candidates throughout the West.
I can immediately think of three in the last six months, Israel, France and the UK. I dare say other contributors can point to others recently, which appear to fit the same mould, but of which I am too unfamiliar with the politics and personalities to include with certainly.
good point. one can point back to the 2000 and 2004 federal elections in the U.S. and starting the trend. these sudden swings also occur at state and local level – Wisconsin in US where a fairly unpopular governor keeps receiving “mandates”. British Columbia in Canada two years ago saw a sudden inexplicable swing on election day in favor of very unpopular provincial government (which coincidentally had pledged to work in interests of oil and gas industry).
Lots of money can be at stake – why wouldn’t vested interests try to game the system? Particularly if they seem to get away with it.
The worst of these, IMHO, was 2006 in Mexico, when Calderon defied the polls and narrowly beat Obrador. Political scientists to this day cannot understand how Calderon won. Calderon quickly joined forces with the US and launched a “War On Drugs” which has turned Mexico into a chamber of horrors and deformed politics in the country such that it will be a very very long time before any “normality” returns.
re: Minsk, too: What a farce and becoming more and more farcical at the same time. Who is backed into a corner trying to “observe” the terms of this obscenity? and who is paying the price ? And since the major player from the other side, The US, was not invited to sign it, what, pray tell, was the purpose? Really did anyone think this would divide the Germans ( especially CIA asset Merkel) and the French from Washington? At least Hitler signed the Non Agression Pact before he violated it later at his convenience.
Methinks this scrap of waste paper has outlived its usefulness and I doubt the the people of the Donbass are going to offer up their lives to preserve the fiction any longer especially when the power goes off due to shelling and hundreds of miners are trapped underground. This is Not a sustainable sacrifice to request.
What has absolutely disgusted me for months now is the DPR attitude of wanting to be the good guys in this conflict while the civilians were daily being wounded and/or killed by UAF
bombardment in flagrant violation of a worthless ‘cease-fire’ agreement.
I, some time ago, stopped watching the videos of the DPR military where they almost daily told about the shellings of the civilian population and the resulting casualties, because I started yelling at the screen: “What are you going to do about it, you craven bastards? How much longer are you going to let your people be murdered by this Nazi scum while you think you look good by doing nothing?”
Now, I know that things are often not what they seem and that I have no idea what is being concocted behing the scenes. But, just from my superficial judgment, I have lost a fair amount of respect for the DPR military while still hoping and wishing that, one day, they will pound the UAF into the dust.
You have put to words my exact thoughts. I continue to believe there is something not quite right concerning this scenario.
It’s war. It’s war for power and money. It’s war for fear. It’s war for senseless tragic destruction, in which the East have to hold back and hold off, side step, manoeuvre, and fend off, in order to prevent dragging all Europe into war and a blood bath such as we have not seen since World War II
And the humble Bloomberg rag chimes in to promote a fellow tribesman Poroshenko Makes Putin Look Like a Wimp.
Yes, folks. Chocolate is now the new icing on the cake.
“If only we could build a wall around Vova!” –
YikesYatsVideos of fights in Mar’inka June 3rd, 2015
http://voicesevas.ru/news/14513-boi-za-marinku.html
@ Scott,
Thanks, man.
Both for sitrep and these clips. Appreciated.
When will the realization set in that the militia will be devoured without Russian muscle on the battlefield?
No matter how brave, they are and have always been a defense force. Heroically, they have fought well, scouted and reconned well, sniped well, but cannot mount an offensive against the armor, artillery and numbers of Ukies that enclose them on the front.
Thus, they can not defeat the Ukies. All this talk about taking big cities is nonsense. Much of the talk of the size of the militia is PR and self-deception.
Debaltcevo told us everything. They lost enormous numbers of men. Well over a thousand killed and 3-4000 wounded to take a town that is one-eighth the size in area and population of Mariupol.
Their great victories have been obviously Russian-coordinated and aided. The Southern Boiler along the Russian border had Russian GRADS decimating the Ukies.
The great victory by Motorola was in Ilovaisk, a town of 16,000 people. It took over two weeks.
The Airport victory took a year (it was extremely difficult, no doubt because of the underground and maze of buildings and damage atop the ground). They have won villages and towns, not cities.
They are very effective as a brigade size mobile force, fighting on their own turf, clever and determined. But they are not an army that can move and take cities. (Until the Russians provide the men and the means and scale them up 100% or more.)
This doesn’t lessen their heroism. I salute them and pray for them every night.
Talking about Minsk 2 getting in their way is also nonsense. It saves them from a continuous war which they cannot fight. They need the short burst of battle, not a prolonged war to conclusion.
They are grossly outnumbered. And they are facing 2-4000 foreign contractors from Georgia, Poland, the US. These aren’t conscripts. They are contractors with skills and plenty of tactical experience.
Realism needs to sink in to the supporters out here in the blogshere that Donbass exists because Putin wants it to, and will deliver, over time, all the missing pieces (the rest of Donbass and probably, Novorossiya connected to the Transnistria border). That will take time and timing.
If the Ukies and the warmongers of Europe and the US make a mistake and blockade Transnistria, the result will be Novorossiya will be a fact and the junta will be gone. Russia will be in Ukraine in enormous force.
From the beginning, there are two core principles:
Russia cannot allow NATO on Ukraine’s soil. (nor ported and based in Odessa)
Russia will not be baited into a Ukrainian war.
(That does not mean invasion is out of the question. Where better to fight than on the enemy’s turf?)
Of course, Russia would want to fight a war (it will be for 3-4 days) on Ukrainian territory rather than on its own soil. And that is where it will be fought. On terms of Russian making, with strategy and tactics of Russian design.
They don’t have to worry about NATO intervening. They will be doing the UN’s work, ensuring that the Minsk 2 ceasefire and terms of agreement (surrender, in essence by Kiev) is maintained.
They will win the war. Donbass cannot win that war.
Everything is going according to plan geopolitically. Minsk 2 works to cripple Ukraine. It ensures the Donbass will be independent of Kiev. The border is Russian-controlled. Humanitarian and economic aid will flow to Donbass. Eventually, the artillery will stop.
There will be offensive flareups for months more. There will be civilian deaths and destruction of homes and schools. Russia will not go to war over these failures.
Then, at some point, a fatal mistake will be made by a very desperate junta, CIA or State Dept.
And Russia will wipe the place of nazis.
It is inevitable because there cannot be a sovereign Ukraine (Minsk 2 finished that legally), and there cannot be a guerrilla force waging war on Russians from a neighboring entity.
These are absolute impossible states of being.
Russia must be free of the threat of NATO and free of a constant war next door.
Ukraine must become a dependent of Russia, and the nazis must be driven far to the West in an enclave so small it will be more a zoo, a wild animal park, monitored by blue helmets for two decades. This situation is the end product of Minsk 2.
Realize these imperatives for survival are non-negotiatble and are inevitable. (in Minsk 2, they are codified. Russia’s border is protected from Kiev forever. It belongs to Russia now, and later, Donbass.)
Who can stop Russia from protecting herself?
Who can damage Russia for taking that very action when the UNSC has already accepted Minsk 2 as the program that Ukraine must follow?
What remains is timing. There is the right time to do what needs to be done.
If the enemy gives the opening, it will happen then.
If the enemy continues a war after suing for a ceasefire and solution, then it will happen to end the war.
The only thing that precludes Russia from acting is Timing.
We saw how swiftly special ops Russians were inserted in Transnistria. No one yet knows how they got there. Be patient. The Russians are very good at this stuff. Putin does not suffer ‘buck fever’.
It is not the right time to go into Ukraine and quell the nazis. The militia can handle it with voentorg in the meanwhile.
The plans are completed. The orders are cut. The troops are ready. The engines are running. Putin will decide the precise timing.
Porky will never back down. Yarosh wants more war. It’s lining up perfectly.
What must be will be.
Special ops in Transnistria? just because it’s the first time we’ve seen them in uniform (or in their own uniform): does not mean they just got there.
I think they’ve been there for months, and not just sitting on their hands either. The local army trains well and often but…. Totally legal, too; not all RF troops there are peacekeepers; some are straight RF, guarding the huge arms stockpiles left from Soviet days. Peacekeepers can’t suddenly turn into regulars or train the locals; but warehouse security can be stepped up if higher security risks are seen.
NAF moved out very smartly and did very well in Maryinka, considering they couldn’t have a full complement of weapons. Really, they were pretending they were just shooting back, right?
So, Poroshenko & Co thought they can stop the Transnistria rotations, mnaybe set upo some provocation there, sq
The advance of the NAF got decimated by GRADS. That is the source of high dead and wounded. Just like in most of the war. High dead and wounded is from artillery.
We really don’t know exactly what went down. But it was aborted. Whatever they had gained for a few hours, they gave back.
By now, we should be less cavalier about the militia’s heroic potential.
@ Red Ryder,
Q; By now, we should be less cavalier about the militia’s heroic potential.
R: I think ‘we’ should try to remain realistic.
These wo/men are not of the Marvel variety, where everybody turns their body into a ‘Wunderwaffen,’ but they bleed and die like everyone else. Nevertheless [especially if you have a look at the videos Scott has provided via a link, a bit higher up], they do heroic things.
They stare death in the face and do not blink. I admire and respect that.
@Larchmonter445
The first part of your argument is inconsistent with your conclusion. How can Russia be strong enough to ride to the rescue of transdniestria, surrounded by NATO and hostile American proxies, while simultaneously being incapable of saving Donbass (threatened by a less capable Ukie war machine) from the Gaza-like perdition they have been condemned to. Rescuing PMR from the jaws of the Americans is an exponentially more complex enterprise than protecting Donbass. Why let all these loyal Russians, arguably the best citizens/ patriots Russia could hope for, suffer and die such a humiliating and painful death, if all along Russia possessed the means to end this nightmare. The victims of this war can forgive the state for being too weak to protect them, but it is an unpardonable crime to claim they were sacrificed because the timing was inconvenient. The cunning plans theory discredits the Russian state and is the opposite of strength.
Transnistria is Russian Dependent Territory and Eastern Ukraine is not. A different set of rules. No doubt Russia would love to officially go into Eastern Ukraine and sort things out, however, that is what NATO and the USA want. That then violates the treaties and agreements from the fall of the Warsaw Pact and Russia gets the blame. In Transnistria, it is a completely different set of rules and Russia will be defending her dependent territory, whether the USA or NATO (who have nothing to do with the area like or not). By the way, Ukraine has never ratified it’s borders with Russia, Moldovia or Belarus, it is only accepted, whilst they are part of the Customs Union, which they wish to leave.
This comment is worthy of being a short article imo!
Special ops in Transnistria? just because it’s the first time we’ve seen them in uniform (or in their own uniform): does not mean they just got there.
I think they’ve been there for months, and not just sitting on their hands either. The local army trains well and often but…. Totally legal, too; not all RF troops there are peacekeepers; some are straight RF, guarding the huge arms stockpiles left from Soviet days. Peacekeepers can’t suddenly turn into regulars or train the locals; but warehouse security can be stepped up if higher security risks are seen.
NAF moved out very smartly and did very well in Maryinka, considering they couldn’t have a full complement of weapons. Really, they were pretending they were just shooting back, right? They took losses but they moved fast.
So, Poroshenko & Co thought they can stop the Transnistria rotations, maybe set up some provocation there, squeezing Transnistria between Moldova and Odessa, to drag Russia into protecting the peacekeepers.
What they got was a rapid-response type of action from NAF which forced the Ukies out of the town. Followed by the magic appearance of RF special forces exercising in Transnistria. Who is in a squeeze now???
With all due respect, which I definitely have, this reads like a theological discussion. I would argue that the Kiev regime can stay afloat for a long time, as the US is quite experienced at keeping rotten regimes going, even during civil wars. To say that Russia can’t or won’t permit a blockade of Transnistria begs the question of how to stop it. The economic blockade seems to be reality right now. Sure, Russia can send in military supplies, but what to do about a broader collapse? A collapse that would likely happen years before any collapse in the Ukraine.
As for Russia not allowing NATO in, well, NATO will just gradually come in, as they are doing now. Trainers, PMCs, equipment, etc. They will just not announce a day when they say they are now satisfied. So, if you don’t want NATO in, what are you going to do about it? Talking about Minsk is not very effective because the interpretations are so different. Brussels and DC can say that 80% of the problems in the Donbass today are due to the locals breaking Minsk.
So, for my general personal/emotional/theological take on it, too many supporters of Russia have had a rose-colored view of the situation. Kiev won’t collapse unless the US wants it to. The Kiev military will be built up and get better over time, and they will have an advantage in terms of the population basis to work with. And the NAF will get better, too. And there won’t be a UN blessing for Russia to go in, unless it is part of partitioning the Ukraine, which Russia hasn’t wanted up to this time. Of course, Russia and the US may settle on a failed state by default at some point.
Russia made a huge mistake in thinking that everything could be worked out in the Ukraine through deals with oligarchs. Geopolitics is above people like Akhmetov or Yanukovich.
Based on your analysis, which I find persuasive, I wonder if a formal Russian protectorate of the Donbass republics, while still formally recognizing them as part of the Ukraine, analogous to the old French protectorates of Tunisia and Morocco, might stabilize and freeze the situation. Perhaps when the Minsk-II conditions (elections, regional autonomy) age out without Ukrainian concessions, either at the end of calendar 2015, or 12 months after Minsk-II (mid February as I recall). That should at least give the Ukies and NATO pause, with Russian troops on the cease-fire line, instant artillery retaliation to any Ukie bombardment, and perhaps a no-fly zone over the entire Donbas oblasts enforced by Russia S-300/400 missiles.
An interesting idea. Off the top of my head, that sounds like it would have been better at the start of the war, not now. The reason is that Russia really doesn’t want to see Kharkov and Odessa locked down, with the US bringing goodies in, along with building up the capabilities of the UAF. In other words, time is working on Russia’s side in terms of the Ukrainian economy getting worse, but not necessarily in terms of issues like NATO missiles in Europe or Kharkov. So it wouldn’t actually freeze NATO from making other moves.
In any case, Russia has had to choose amongst a bunch of lousy choices. Your suggestion would make it hard for Kiev to keep the war momentum going, but it would increase the anti-Russian sentiment and the West would consider it an invasion, so all the drawbacks of that would be in play.
So my proposal would be more along the lines of what many of us expected after the Crimean action. Destabilize and selectively bribe. Send in or use local assets to achieve the usual goals. This would actually cause an economic collapse, and a few uprisings in places like Kharkov. But mainly, the crass faith in the Kremlin and Russian elite that everything comes down to money has to be ditched. The soldiers on both sides of this sorry war are not fighting over money, and, truth be told, a large part of those in the anti-Russian establishment in the West aren’t either. The Saker isn’t here for the money, and, unfortunately, many Ukrainians who see Russia as the enemy are also sincere.
Based on lead articles today in both Tass English (http://tass.ru/en/russia/799098) “Lawmaker: Moscow can answer possible deployment of US nuclear missiles in Europe”, and Tass Russian (http://tass.ru/politika/2022531) “В Кремле обратили внимание на доклад США о возможности нацелить ракеты на РФ”, Russia may have more vital (I use the term advisedly) things to worry about right now than future developments in Kharkov and Odessa.
IMHO, the U.S. military is gearing up for war in the near future, and seem blithely unconcerned that it might become nuclear. (As was the case during the Cuban Missile Crisis, as we now know from many published reports of deliberation between JFK and his advisers. Only JFK himself and one other, George Ball as I recall, opposed war.) Our current incumbent is a weak person, in my observation, and is becoming weaker as his term ends. The SecDef and members of the JCS have been overtly contradicting him publically. Whether they will still obey him, if he tries to restrain them, is anybody’s guess. JFK’s subordinates didn’t (Diem’s murder, inter alia). Our present incumbent may be cognizant of JFK’s fate if he tries to defy them (assuming he were so inclined).
Great comment Larchmonter,
I have a teasing doubt in my mind that originates with the Donetsk Victory Day parade. Multiple colours of berets were on display, indicating various special forces. I have a hopeful “suspicion” that they weren’t all just a veneer thin facade to look good on a special occasion but that behind them were real forces in significant number. If that “suspicion” is right, who the hell are they and where did they come from? I’d wager that, except perhaps for those on parade, they weren’t native to Donbas.
Donbas has been issuing passports, and Russian forces can switch passports as easily as Odessa Governors. Were we looking at the thin edge of a Donbas army that is Russian in all but name? Are special forces carrying NAF IDs already fanning out across the countryside to hit hard the moment the orders go live? Perhaps they speak only Ukrainian in the field. Or as an extra layer of misdirection, occasionally English or Polish?
If this ain’t la-la-land dreaming, until they’re all in position, arms caches placed, your point regarding timing becomes all the more acute. Look for sudden action breaking the UAF’s weak, undertrained rear lines into panic, leaving the forward lines stranded.
Larchmonter445
You rattle on and on and on here, but you provide absolutely zero factual support for what you are ranting about. Anybody can write prose, but prose is not reality. Facts, that horrendous 4 letter word…
Three of them were captured.
Hey, Bot Tak, I think your snipe is inaccurate. Bad facts on your part.
Larch used these facts:
“Debaltcevo told us everything. They lost enormous numbers of men. Well over a thousand killed and 3-4000 wounded to take a town that is one-eighth the size in area and population of Mariupol.
Their great victories have been obviously Russian-coordinated and aided. The Southern Boiler along the Russian border had Russian GRADS decimating the Ukies.
The great victory by Motorola was in Ilovaisk, a town of 16,000 people. It took over two weeks.
The Airport victory took a year (it was extremely difficult, no doubt because of the underground and maze of buildings and damage atop the ground). They have won villages and towns, not cities.
They are very effective as a brigade size mobile force, fighting on their own turf, clever and determined. But they are not an army that can move and take cities. (Until the Russians provide the men and the means and scale them up 100% or more.)”
“They are grossly outnumbered. And they are facing 2-4000 foreign contractors from Georgia, Poland, the US. These aren’t conscripts. They are contractors with skills and plenty of tactical experience.”
As for prose, and communicating his argument, many folks approve the comment. There is not a false statement in the prose. The thought of it all was to think about the limits of the war and the effect of Minsk 2 as it affects Kiev’s reality.
It is a thought-piece. Of course, that may not be your thing. Larch has his point of view and you may have yours.
He writes his way, you write your way.
Speaking of on and on and on–Maybe he should have thrown in a few dozen “zionazi” and then you’d have felt comfortable?
larch-is right… it is very painfull for many ppl in SE ,and frustrating for many readers on Saker site but all thing must be- in place-before BEAR respond… so be a patient Vladimirovic know perfectly well with whom he deal !!!!!
Tallyman, sejmon
Those are not facts, they are claims made by an internet comment writer. Learn the difference. This is not the Guardian’s website, freerepublic.com or justthetalk.com. Expect to be challenged on your claims here and be prepared to support them with factual sources.
There is another factor at work here, and that is time, time for the Ukrainian economy to cause the people to protest, turning to rioting, resulting in a necessary pull back of troops to deal with unrest in central, western Ukraine.
“No matter how brave, they are and have always been a defense force.” Against what pray? The Ukrainians did not attack their own country spontaneously. You may remember the arrival of an international brigade of 2 500 orthodox fascists? Although I agree, Girkin siad he had only 50 under his direct command and 76 local recruits from across Donbass. They drove out the police, killed and imprisoned politicians and killed 12 Ukrainian troops sent to restore order. Then they attacked the Ukrainian army which was in a static position at the airport and lost 70 men, 40 plus of whom carried Russian passports. Most of the others without passports. Yeah. Defensive.
Summary for our preschool readers:
The fighting in Mar’inka wasn’t a general offensive by either side, but rather a series of small attacks/counter-attacks amid heavy artillery fire. In the end, both sides are pretty much where they started out and the overall losses seem comparable. Donetsk was randomly shelled by the UAF, as per usual. Overall, we see the exact same pattern of an escalating tug-of-war as we saw during the onslaught on the Donetsk airport, last fall.
School’s Out!
Interview of a NAF soldier who took part in Mariynka fight by Graham Phillips
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Ds9j9UCCJao
@ Ben,
This is not a question directed at you specifically, but based on the video link you provided.
My experiences [in general] are that when you stick a camera in someone’s face, 99% of the time they go all funny on you. This [young] man sounds very coherent [although I only understood 2 words of what he said] and determent. On top of that, he comes across as very talkative. Is this rule or an exception?
I think it would depend on how good and trustworthy an interviewer is. Graham Phillips is very good and people of Donbass trust him a lot.
@ Ben,
Q; Graham Phillips is very good and people of Donbass trust him a lot.
R; That’s true. I remember when GP got wounded [last year]. They treated him like one of their own. Very impressive and that says it all.
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/06/04/ukrainians-dispossessed-americans-next-paul-craig-roberts/
TTP full text,wikileaks
http://www.readthetpp.com/
Fool me once ,shame on you TTP.
Seems like a test. Not sure what this says about new tactics, weapons or units. The UAF was able to effectively mass firepower, which forced the Donbass forces to withdraw. Static battles of attrition are bloody and pointless. I hope that incidents such as this one at Mar’inka are not going to be the standard for the next phase of the war.
It is true that UAF has greatly improved from year ago, still they had to bring reserves from the second line of defence and adjacent areas of the front, which could spell a disaster during full scale operation. It is somewhat reminiscent of the winter campaign when UAF brought reinforcements to fight for Donetsk airport weakening Debaltsevo group where NAF made it’s main attack.
One question – why the idiots from UAF and NAF are fighting only in those places where they are facing each other? Where are panzer divisions/formations, where are strong rams aka vices dodging UAF trenches to attack them from behind? Why they (NAF) always ride on roads against blockposts? Why they bangs their heads against Ukies’ heads only? Debaltsevo was a tragic failure not a victory – UAF did withdraw easily albeit hastily but in the last time and without much losses. Contrary to the losses of NAF.
Its an important point.
There’s no blitzkrieg tactics anymore(a fact that was known to russian military theorists since the eighties), due to the massive presence of ATGMs and artillery on the battlefield.
The only mean to effectuate a breakthrough is to have an overwhelming air superiority, then kill the artillery and suppress the antitank weapons.
Then the armor can roll over infantry and engage enemy tanks with success; which was the blueprint to the so-called US victory over Iraqis (then of course came Fallujah).
What we have now in the Donetsk sector is a most unwelcome and difficult situation; a beginning of the remake of WW I trenches horror.
That being said.
Those men on both sides arent *idiots* as you put it (except for the formations of nazi bandits, but they are generally robbing and murdering at the rear, true to their Einsatzgruppe roots),
and Debaltsevo was not a tragic failure, but exactly the victory to the extent Comrade Putin wanted it to be.
– “…and Debaltsevo was not a tragic failure, but exactly the victory to the extent Comrade Putin wanted it to be.”
And that is the second tragedy brewed by Comrades’ failure.
And the Ukies together with US and NATO are creeping into Ukraine drop by drop, step by step, jump ahead after previous jump. Only Russian leaders’ faces look like faces of simpletons.
Thanks for your explanation.
P.S. The DPR/LPR’s fronts are scattered as those black spots on Vietnam maps. There’s no front line at all! Vast steppes and fields are left empty. Just as I said – head against head to the last drop of blood.
It sounds as though the UAF’s retreat from Mar’inka was a feint that was designed to draw the DPR forces into an artillery ambush, and it sounds as though the ploy worked.
Now that NATO countries are barring no holds and arming the UAF with sophisticated weaponry, I believe that Russia MUST up the ante and do the same for the DPR and LPR.
If the DPR/LPR forces are to expel the UAF from occupied DPR/LPR territory, they will have to find effective ways to counter entrenched UAF artillery. What might the solution be? A combination of drone reconnaissance and long-range artillery? Ground-attack aircraft and helicopters? Ballistic missiles? Cruise missiles? Special ops forces?
IMHO, the only ploy by the UAF was a provocation attempt to produce some political ammo for G7 to make more excuses for increasing anti Russian sanctions and further NATO involvement, tactically UAF didn’t gain anything at all having more casualties then NAF and loosing some, though not a lot, of ground.
They have drones. They know where they all are; they’ve been telling OSCE but to little avail (tho to be fair, the Ukies don’t always let OSCE in everywhere either).
They also have some good pin-point aiming gear but they might not want to give that away now; come the time they might be able to use it to knock out a lot of entrenched cannon very quickly. They recently got a thermobaric mine clearer, which is meant to throw a big low explosion through a minefield, blowing up enough mines to create a safe path for infantry (or maybe tanks in single file).
This is a long-distance flamethrower. Inhumane and illegal to deliberately use on humans, although shot into a crowded trench one shot could probably kill a few hundred. They won’t do that. They’ll just be able to approach through minefields, approach dug-in arms which are faced the other way, thinking the minefield has their backs covered.
A lot of the Ukies still are untrained conscripts who don’t want to be there. Suddenly behind them a big string of explosions, a huge fireball, and when that clears, a convoy of tanks up close? how long before they find a white flag?
They know where the big ammunition dumps are, in preparation for the Ukie attack. Two of these already blew up last week, just before the Maryinka attack. The Ukie spokesman put it down to “careless handling” by his own people and did not admit to any casualties. A rocket that has GPS targeting could in theory do surgical strikes on 4 or 5 ammo dumps in a row. Nearby survivors would be in shock,k and have nothing left to shoot with.
You can see my tactics are more wishful thinking than knowledgeable. If a war could be won like this with 7 or 8 well aimed shots, it would be over by now, right? so it must be harder than this. Point is they have a lot of gear, a lot of courage, and a good idea where all the dug-in stuff is. They’ll work it out.
@ Kat Kan,
OT
Q; You can see my tactics are more wishful thinking than knowledgeable.
R: I don’t know why, but that line just cracked me up. Thanks for a good [albeit somewhat hysterical] laugh.
One think that’s hardly ever mentioned is animals. That thermobaric bomb will clear not only mines, but field mice, rabbits, birds, and everything else in the field, and all the rest of the armaments also kill animals.
They should count too. If God, Mother Nature, Gaia, Buddha, or whatever has any meaning or reality, then that ‘entity’ is noticing, and may have some karma to dish out to humans with so little consciousness that they never even think about these things.
Dear Blue, nice but sad comment. But my understanding is that the earth is humanity’s to love or destroy. Along with all the little field mice and birds…to say nothing of factory farming….and the most horrible of all…this is a quote…”GMO food animals”.
That’s a point of Biblical doctrine I definitely disagree with: the Earth does not ‘belong’ to humans, but humans ‘belong’ to — are a part of — the Earth. The Earth was here long before humans existed and will be here long after we are gone.
In any case, it is not ours to destroy. If one takes ‘dominion’ to mean govern or rule over, as king gives a viceroy or governor dominion over an area, that doesn’t mean to destroy it but to manage it.
Also see
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew+10:29-31
Matthew 10:29-31New International Version (NIV)
29 Are not two sparrows sold for a penny? Yet not one of them will fall to the ground outside your Father’s care.[a] 30 And even the very hairs of your head are all numbered. 31 So don’t be afraid; you are worth more than many sparrows.
Footnotes:
Matthew 10:29 Or will; or knowledge
New International Version (NIV)
Holy Bible, New International Version®, NIV® Copyright ©1973, 1978, 1984, 2011 by Biblica, Inc.® Used by permission. All rights reserved worldwide.
This implies that the Earth is under God’s care, as does
http://biblehub.com/genesis/8-21.htm
New International Version
The LORD smelled the pleasing aroma and said in his heart: “Never again will I curse the ground because of humans, even though every inclination of the human heart is evil from childhood. And never again will I destroy all living creatures, as I have done.
and
New American Standard Bible
“I establish My covenant with you; and all flesh shall never again be cut off by the water of the flood, neither shall there again be a flood to destroy the earth.”
saying that the Earth is under God’s care and is still his.
If you go off for a month and leave your house in your children’s care you don’t expect them to trash it.
Many esoteric and spiritual traditions teach that planets and stars do indeed have consciousness.
And how would they know that ?
I agree with you. But the time for open Russian intervention might be years to come.
Important news re: Soros/Ukraine, hopefully Saker covers this himself. Hope it’s not old news I gotta post and run. Leaked email. Huge imo.
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/06/confidential-document-soross-plan-for-ukraine.html
Colinjames
It’s been covered here in one of the previous sitreps, but I agree this is very important. Soros isn’t a neocon, he’s zionazi, but he represents the liberal wing of zionazism. If that makes any sense. :D Soros is behind moveon.org, the anti-neocon, phony “antiwar” outfit, that forgot about being antiwar after Bush Jr. was [s]elected for a 2nd term. Soros represents the [cough] liberal Israeli/zionazi russophobic wing of the ZPC/NWO. He is a central figure in most of the Eastern European “color revolution” regime changes, and I suspect without him, and his “dedicated” zionazi loyal personnel, a lot of those war crimes would not have been possible.
Put another way, Soros represents an example of the more pragmatic zionazi wing of the ZPC/NWO, in a similar way that Brzeziński represents the practical non-zionist NWO half. Both are essentially cult figures, retired, but have dedicated “disciples” carrying on their work and expanding it. Both are also not neocons in the sense of effectiveness, they are not simple-minded bum bandits with less than 90 IQ stats, but both use the neocon freakshow because neocons, being neocons, make good patsies for achieving the more extreme ziofascist/fascist policy goals.
why dont russia arrest this soros international terrorist..causing chaos..
Thanks Larchmonter for the excellent summary of the situation. You can always tell when warfare is heightened because once again the threads are filled with fear and doubt and the totally absurd suggestions that Russia or Putin are weak, ignorant of the situation, or prone to making bad moves.
Some of this is trolling. We try not to feed the trolls. But it’s hard to know who is actually a troll and who is simply deluded. I think I’m seeing more more delusion than trolling lately, and it seems to come from panic. Some people drink the fog of war into themselves like it was an energy drink.
Personally, when the going gets tough, I try to stay calm and simply study events, since they are beyond my influence, and do my best to learn from the situation instead of prescribing cures for it. I would offer that path to many here, for more settled stomachs and more rational discourse.
ps..also, choose a name. The threads are filled with Anonymous and how can anyone converse with people you can’t recognize the second time around?
I agree with Grieved…
The threads are filled with armchair warriors who ‘know little’ about the true events on the ground.
For example, Kat Kan puts up a lot of info as if she were right there in Donbass, but from her previous posts she said was in Oz, thousands of km away from the action.
I would trust her info more if she provided sources.
Summary for our preschool readers
Echos of “Moldavian”?
Western MSM mindlessly parroting the UAF spokesman’s boasting, and Russians doing the same for the DPR.
1. (Possible UAF attack) UAF infantry may have assaulted the DPR positions first, in the early morning; several separate DPR sources claim this, but there is no rock-solid evidence. Both sides certainly shelled each other.
both sides have taken considerable losses (DPR acknowledged 15 KIA and 84 WIA, Kiev acknowledged 4 KIA and 42 WIA – real losses are likely 50% higher for DPR and 200%+ higher for Kiev, as usual)
Note such “real loss speculation” would mean Novorussians had about 22 kia, 120+ wounded, while the orcs had 12 kia and about 120 wounded. OK….
A) Minsk-2 truce is very shaky, both sides seem increasingly liberal with using heavy weapons and conducting offensives and counter-offensives.
For now, we can not conclusively blame either side for this flare-up.
At the same time, DPR have also hit both civilian houses and checkpoints yesterday, but at least their fire is always aimed to a zipcode with military targets in it. OSCE confirms both of these things, no one cares.
Yes, OSCE is a reliable source about this and would never lie…
Chief problem, as I see it, is that the sides were forced to sign the truce by Russia and EU virtually in gunpoint. In fact, the rebels have no real desire to surrender to Kiev, and Kiev usurpers have no real desire to stop the war
Who does this support? Think about it.
Bot Tak..did you see this ? Ron Paul, recent I think…on the role of the CIA…fabulous.
https://youtu.be/YS4SuojTvPM
Ann
No I hadn’t, thanks.
You may be surprised, but I try to do reporting, not political advocacy. I obviously have my sympathies, but I like to base them on facts. If we blindly cheer for our chosen team, how are we better than the Ukies?
“If we blindly cheer for our chosen team, how are we better than the ukies ?”
That’s a great quote from an excellent comment.
But some people do just that, no matter how much they look like idiots in the process.
Ukrainian forces suffered heavy losses in the clash near Maryinka
5th of June, 2015, Donetsk People’s Republic, Novorossiya.
Ukrainian forces suffered heavy losses in the fighting near Maryinka on the 3rd of June, the head of the DPR Alexander Zakharchenko told journalists today.
“According to our estimates, around 400 Ukrainian soldiers were killed, and up to 1,000 were injured,” – Alexander Zakharchenko said.
Zakharchenko stressed that on the 3rd of June, the DPR fighters “did not violate any of the Minsk Agreements, the actions of the DPR armed forces were a counterattack in response to the enemy’s aggression”.
See also:
5.06.2015 Military Report of Novorossia
05.06.2015 Military Report of Novorossia
Novorossian warriors have destroyed 60 units of Ukrainian military equipment and over 400 Kiev’s soldiers in the clashes around the settlement Maryinka, the head of DPR Aleksandr Zakharchenko has stated today. Novorossian forces are depoyed in the center of the settlements now and maintains strategic crossroad Krasnogorovka.
Meanwhile, Kiev’s military has backed all heavy military equipment to the contact line. Ukrainian military spokesperson Andrey Lisenko stated that Kiev won’t pull back heavy military equipment from sector of settlements Maryinka and Krasnogorovka. Furthermore, all Kiev’s Armed Forces was turned to the high war footage. It seems that Kiev government doesn’t care about Minsk ceasefire agreement.
Ukrainian artillery has been shelling Donetsk with heavy artillery today. The sporadic firefights are going in the Shirokino, child was killed by Ukrainian artillery fire in Telmonovo. The situation is becoing tense at the whole contact line. In turn, military spokesperson of DPR Eduard Basurin has stated that political process stopped to influence the situation in the Donbass.
And also:
9 civilians, 35 militias killed in DPR over past week — human rights ombudsman
As many as 44 people, both militias and civilians, have been killed in shelling in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) over past week, the DPR human rights ombudsperson said in a report issued on Friday.
“In a period from May 30 to June 5, 2015, nine civilians and 35 servicement have beek killed in combat operations,” the document said. As many as 48 civilians and 29 militias have been hospitalized with wounds.
Earlier on Friday, DPR defence ministry spokesman Eduard Basurin said twenty servicemen had been killed and 99 more had been wounded in hostilities in the town of Maryinka. Meanwhile, DPR head Alexander Zakharchenko said Ukraine’s losses in manpower had exceeded 400 servicemen, more than 1,000 had been wounded.
High-intensity battlefield involving Ukrainian troops and militias was reported in Maryinka near Donetsk on Wednesday. According to the spokesman for defence ministry of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, Eduard Basurin, “it was a large-scale provocation by Ukrainian troops” aimed at diverting attention from preparations for a large-scale operation in the Luhansk region.
The 13-point Package of Measures on implementation of the September 2014 Minsk agreements included an agreement on cessation of fire from February 15, withdrawal of heavy armaments, as well as measures on long-term political settlement of the situation in Ukraine, including enforcement of a special self-rule status for certain districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
I have a friend fighting in Donetsk for the NAF.He told me that from 40-50 on his side were killed in the fighting.He also said they estimate UAF killed at between 200-400.He had seen many of the bodies littering the battle areas.Those figures seem somewhat similar to what you are hearing.
Analysts blame Kiev for flare-up of hostilities along disengagement line in Ukraine
Hostilities flared up along the line of disengagement in Ukraine’s Donetsk Region earlier this week. The conflicting parties blame each other for the renewed fire exchanges. The Defense Ministry of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic has dismissed the rumors it had launched a massive offensive against the positions of the Ukrainian military. Kiev has accused Russia of disrupting the Minsk Accords and demanded putting pressures on the militias.
Over the less than four months since the conclusion of a second truce in Minsk combat operations in Donbas have not stopped altogether for a single day, but the hostilities that erupted late at night on Tuesday were so strong that many analysts started wondering if it was a temporary aggravation or evidence a full-scale war is underway again.
The leading research fellow of the Social Sciences Institute at the presidential academy RANEPA, Sergey Bespalov, believes that Kiev is hardly interested in a resumption of large-scale combat operations, but at the same time it would like to make the militias and Russia, allegedly present behind all of their actions, look as the ones responsible for the current aggravation. By doing so it pursues very certain aims.
Hostilities flared up along the line of disengagement in Ukraine’s Donetsk Region earlier this week. The conflicting parties blame each other for the renewed fire exchanges. The Defense Ministry of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic has dismissed the rumors it had launched a massive offensive against the positions of the Ukrainian military. Kiev has accused Russia of disrupting the Minsk Accords and demanded putting pressures on the militias.
Over the less than four months since the conclusion of a second truce in Minsk combat operations in Donbas have not stopped altogether for a single day, but the hostilities that erupted late at night on Tuesday were so strong that many analysts started wondering if it was a temporary aggravation or evidence a full-scale war is underway again.
The leading research fellow of the Social Sciences Institute at the presidential academy RANEPA, Sergey Bespalov, believes that Kiev is hardly interested in a resumption of large-scale combat operations, but at the same time it would like to make the militias and Russia, allegedly present behind all of their actions, look as the ones responsible for the current aggravation. By doing so it pursues very certain aims.
“Foreign sponsors have to be addressed with a reminder from time to time that Ukraine is a warring country and deserves continued assistance,” Bespalov told TASS. “It is very desirable to draw the attention of G7 summit participants and to make Ukraine a key theme. Besides, the European Union will soon be considering the question whether to prolong the sanctions against Russia. Kiev would like to rule out a situation where the question of easing or lifting sanctions might be raised.”
“The main reason behind the aggravation is Kiev’s refusal to comply with the Minsk Accords,” the director of the CIS Countries Institute, Konstantin Zatulin, told TASS. “Kiev is responsible for it first and foremost. Also, one should remember that in this situation provocations have become more frequent. Who was the first to attack is a very practical question, but the outcome could have been different. Nothing of the sort could have happened without a decision by the Ukrainian leadership. Surely it was not a spontaneous improvisation,” he said.
Zatulin sees no reasons for linking the current events with the international context.
“In the existing situation it could have happened any moment. The authorities in Kiev are balancing on the brink of a civil war in order to maintain hysteria in society and to quash any manifestations of social protest.”
“The current clashes are unlikely to result in a major war. Everything will be over before long,” an expert at the Centre of Political Technologies, Georgy Chizhov, told TASS.
It seems harsh, but perhaps the Russian strategy is to freeze the fighting as much as possible and simply wait while the Kiev regime comes to the end of its rope and falls apart. Certainly it’s inhumane and costs many lives, but is there any alternative that would not be worse? In 1941 several million Soviet soldiers died or were captured, but in December the German armies fell just short of Leningrad and Moscow. Then they were inexorably shoved back. The sacrifice was immense, but there was no other way.
Now we seem to have a situation where Kiev is steadily reneging on all the duties and obligations of a civilized government. It is refusing to pay pensions and other social security entitlements, and it is gradually running down public transportation and other services. The only thing it is still willing to spend money on is the war. How long can this go on, before the great majority of Ukrainian civilians demand changes? Perhaps equally important, how much longer can the Western MSM go on keeping their readers and viewers entirely deceived about the situation in Ukraine? Remember that every time a single Western citizen gets the feeling that maybe he is being lied to, he will be off to the Web and sites like The Saker – and from then on he will be aware of the truth. Gradually, word of mouth will erode the official story…
Ukraine wins by not attacking. Don’t forget this point.
Wins what?
Great response. :D
Shelling Gorlovka, shelling Donetsk, shelling pretty much everywhere they please, at will, every day. Ukraine screams loud and clear they dont give a hoot about any Minsk, that there is no such thing as a Minsk agreement except as an excuse for Russia to reduce help to a minimum and allow the Donbass to be slowly destroyed and depopulated (already more than halfway there).
This site is interesting as a repository of wishful thinking lalalandia. While all this wanton murder and destruction operation goes on, Russian officials make cutie meek statements about “our Ukrainian partners” not behaving as well as they should, you naughty boys, you.
It is all supposed to be a cunning ruse by the Russians. You see, they are Waiting for the Right Time to do something. The number of dispossessed, displaced, wounded, robbed of any hope, maimed, dead, and more dead and more dead, has been growing daily for over a year now. But it is not the right time. The right time will be in some undefined future when the satanic forces causing all this destruction “make a fatal mistake” of an undefined nature. Or when the Ukrainian thug state and its repressive machine, which is continuously being supported and strengthened by the West, somehow “collapses” spontaneously.
It is not even funny to read so much nonsense.
not only that. the same excuse russia has done with Syrian and Iranian episode.
when Syrian bombing was su[supposedly stopped by russia with Syria willing to give up chemical weapons then what follow up Russia did ? even years after it has NOT Delivered s-300 missiles to Syria with pretext to please Israel or USA.
Russia has betrayed her allies-for which she will pay a heavy price.thousand cuts in what awaits russia from anglo evil empire.
Imagine the scenario…
Russian NGO’s provokes street demonstrations in Quebec, Ottawa, and Toronto. The issue is whether the Canadian-USA-Mexico NAFTA is good for Canada, or should Canada join the Eurasian Union instead. A solid third of Canada, including 80% of Quebec, sides with the “OUT OF NAFTA” argument.
Suddenly, violent protests break out in Ottawa, and a great-great-grandson of the last French fur trapper shoots and wounds Steven Harper with buckshot in the testicle (he only had the one), and his security detail hustles him to Buffalo for medical treatment. He opts to become Caitlyn Harper.
A new government of right minded Quebecois Canadians is formed, they announce that only French will be the national language. English is banned.
When English speaking Toronto residents protest, Montreal Canadian fans pen 150 of them in a Brewers Retail, and throw cherry bombs into the building, setting off an explosion of 180 proof moonshine kegs that were being smuggled to US Colleges for frat pledge weeks. 78 Leafs fans die of the fire that ensues, some clubbed with hockey sticks as they emerge dazed from the building.
The subsequent investigation blames the Leafs fans for killing themselves.
The new Canada French Leaders, handpicked by the Russian embassy, immediately make a statement that US Military contractors are no better than English bullies of 1780, and orders for the arrest of hundreds of English speakers are announced.
Would the USA sit still? No freaking way.
Then why does not Russia put an end to the nonsense in Ukraine?
My bet is, the Kremlin knows that the Israelis and Americans have threatened nuclear war.
Can we try just the part with the fur trapper?
@T. Mihailovich
Thank you for your efforts to provide a more balanced view
of the fighting.
@вот так
“According to our estimates, around 400 Ukrainian soldiers were killed, and up to 1,000 were injured,” – Alexander Zakharchenko said.”
So what? Are you really unable to grasp the basic fact that
wartime ‘estimates’ r notoriously UNRELIABLE?
All sides try to inflate the casualties inflicted and downplay
casualties incurred. The ukrainians do it and so do the separatists.
At times, the ‘estimates’ gain an aura of fact and are then
commonly cited in history books by lazy or dishonest ‘historians’.
For instance, it is still frequently stated in military
histories written by brit and zamerican historians that in
Normandy alone, the germans lost between 200,000 and 240,000
KIA, WIA. Plus another 200,000 plus pows.
In truth, german military records show that for the ENTIRE
Western front(not just normandy), about 90,000 soldiers were
killed or wounded in the summer of 44.
What’s the origin of the inflated 240,000 figure? Allied wartime ‘estimates’.
There is also a propaganda angle to it, since it allows the
zamericans and brits to claim, falsely, that they inflicted
higher casualties than they incurred, when in fact they
actually suffered higher casualties than the germans in normandy.
For example, about 23,000 German KIA for all of the Western front vs nearly
37,000 allies(the thousands of dead airmen NOT included) in Normandy alone.
In the battle of the Ardennes, zamerican intel ‘estimated’ they
had killed or wounded around 214,000 germans.
This is almost 5X what the Germans really suffered.
I’ve seen people here who seem to believe that previous fighting
cost the ukrainian side 50,000 KIA!! Pure wishful thinking!
I’m driven to the point of madness with the stupidity of this all (madness,not mad,I’m past being mad at this stupidity).Why on earth our side stands around and lets these attacks take place is beyond stupid.All it would take to end this is the threat from Russia of action.That Russia would allow the independence of Novorossia,and allow the forming of a government in exile for Ukraine.That she would allow a proper arming of a military force for the Novorossians.And the junta attacks would stop.But for whatever ridiculous power politics they are playing, innocent women and children are dying for it.
I know all the “reasons” we delude ourselves with to explain the “why” of not doing anything.But in the clear and cold light of day they mean nothing.They just help our minds to accept the inaction,to lesson the guilt.But there is no “lessening the guilt”.Its still there in full strength.The West has no intention of dropping the sanctions on Russia.How many ways do they have to say that before the Kremlin gets that message.So Russia has one of two choices,kneel to the West fully,or live with and overcome the sanctions.There is no third choice to choose.The West also will not directly attack Russia.They will do everything they can other than that.They will fund “color revolutions”,spew Russophobia by the shipload.They will use Ukrainians,and fight to the last fascist,against Russia.But what they won’t do is attack themselves.And risk their own soldiers,and nuclear war.If Russian intelligence services don’t know that,then its time to get new men in them.
So then once again,that begs the question,”why” the inaction.Is it because the Novorossians are hard to control ? That many of them believe in a socialism that the Kremlin fears to see in Russia? Is it because oligarchs in Russia and those in Ukraine both sell out their countries.And there are deals between them? Is it because all the talk of believing in the “Russian world” is just talk really.And when something needs to be done no one wants to do it? Is it because Putin is so traumatized by the thought of war that he will do anything to not have one.Shades of Chamberlain,and the “he chose shame and got shame and war”? Frankly,I don’t know fully the answer to “why”. But I do know that inaction has allowed the deaths of thousands of men,women,and children.And the mutilation of thousands of little Vanya’s.
Some would say “well we don’t know what the people really want in Donbass”. First,I’d say,I’m fairly positive that they don’t want to die in this war.Second,from the start,even Western opinion polls found that around 80% of the entire Southeast didn’t accept the junta as their legal government.Then we’ve seen Ukrainian junta soldiers saying 80% of Donbass people didn’t support then.Then we had the referendum,where over 85% voted for Donbass sovereignty.Now a new survey of Donetsk shows that,when asked 42% of people wanted either Donetsk in its full borders independent.Or independent union with either Lugansk,or with all Novorossia. Another 36% wanted union with Russia.While only 10% wanted to accept any deal with staying in a Ukraine.All those polls and reports,from just after maidan,until today shows the overwhelming majority of people there want freedom from the junta.So,no,we do know what the people want.Its only they are denied their democratic choice.Both by the junta,and by our side.If they wanted to be ruled by the junta they could have just knelt after maidan. But instead they said no to rule by fascists.And yes to freedom.We are supposed to hate fascism,or at least we say we do.Yet there are some that would happily throw Novorossia under the fascist “tires”.Its time for Russia, and more importantly “Russians” to decide. Do you support your brother Russians.The flesh of your flesh,blood of your blood.Or are they nothing to you but strangers.If the former,then help them to fight.Just as for hundreds of years they helped you.If the latter,then stop the high minded talk about support.And admit its just as much hypocrisy as the West’s talking of democracy.