Why is Putin “allowing” Israel to bomb Syria?

[This article has been written for the Unz Review]

Informationclearinghouse recently posted an article by Darius Shahtahmasebi entitled “Israel Keeps Bombing Syria and Nobody Is Doing Anything About It”. Following this publication I received an email from a reader asking me the following question: “Putin permitting Israel to bomb Syria – why? I am confused by Putins actions – does Putin support the Zionist entity, on the quiet like. I would appreciate your feedback on this matter. Also – I have heard, but not been able to confirm, that the Russian Jewish immigrants to Occupied Palestines are the most ardent tormenters of the Palestinians – it takes quite some doing to get ahead of the likes of Netanyahu. Please comment“. While in his article Darius Shahtahmasebi wonders why the world is not doing anything to stop the Israelis (“Why haven’t Iran, Syria, and/or Hezbollah in Lebanon responded directly?“), my reader is more specific and wonders why Putin (or Russia) specifically is not only “permitting” Israel to bomb Syria but even possibly “supporting” the Zionist Entity.

I often see that question in emails and in comments, so I wanted to address this issue today.

First, we need to look at some critical assumption implied by this question. These assumptions are:

That Russia can do something to stop the Israelis
That Russia should (or even is morally obliged) to do something.

Let me begin by saying that I categorically disagree with both of these assumptions, especially the 2nd one. Let’s take them one by one.

Assumption #1: Russia can stop the Israeli attacks on Syria

How? I think that the list of options is fairly obvious here. Russian options range from diplomatic action (such as private or public protests and condemnations, attempts to get a UNSC Resolution passed) to direct military action (shooting down Israeli aircraft, “painting” them with an engagement radar to try to scare them away or, at least, try to intercept Israeli missiles).

Trying to reason with the Israelis or get the to listen to the UN has been tried by many countries for decades and if there is one thing which is beyond doubt is that the Israelis don’t give a damn about what anybody has to say. So talking to them is just a waste of oxygen. What about threatening them? Actually, I think that this could work, but at what risk and price?

First of all, while I always said that the IDF’s ground forces are pretty bad, this is not the case of their air forces. In fact, their record is pretty good. Now if you look at where the Russian air defenses are, you will see that they are all concentrated around Khmeimim and Tartus. Yes, an S-400 has a very long range, but that range is dependent on many things including the size of the target, its radar-cross section, its electronic warfare capabilities, the presence of specialized EW aircraft, altitude, etc. The Israelis are skilled pilots who are very risk averse so they are very careful about what they do. Finally, the Israelis are very much aware of where the Russians are themselves and where there missiles are. I think that it would be pretty safe to say that the Israelis make sure to keep a minimal safe distance between themselves and the Russians, if only to avoid any misunderstanding. But let’s say that the Russians did have a chance to shoot down an Israeli aircraft – what would be the likely Israeli reaction to such a shooting? In this article Darius Shahtahmasebi writes: “Is it because Israel reportedly has well over 200 nukes all “pointed at Iran,” and there is little Iran and its allies can do to take on such a threat?” I don’t see the Israelis using nukes on Russian forces, however, that does in no way mean that the Russians when dealing with Israel should not consider the fact that Israel is a nuclear armed power ruled by racist megalomaniacs. In practical terms this means this: “should Russia (or any other country) risk a military clash with Israel over a few destroyed trucks or a weapons and ammunition dump”? I think that the obvious answer is clearly ‘no’.

While this is the kind of calculations the USA simply ignores (at least officially – hence all the saber-rattling against the DPRK), Russia is ruled by a sane and responsible man who cannot make it a habit of simply waltzing into a conflict hence the Russian decision not to retaliate in kind against the shooting down of the Russian SU-24 by the Turks. If the Russians did not retaliate against the Turks shooting down one of their own aircraft, they sure ain’t gonna attack the Israelis when they attack a non-Russian target!

There are also simply factual issues to consider: even if some Russian air-defense systems are very advanced and could shoot down an X number of Israeli aircraft, they are nowhere near numerous enough to prevent the entire Israeli air force from saturating them. In fact, both Israel and CENTCOM simply have such a numbers advantage over the relatively small Russian contingent that they both could over-run the Russian defenses, even if they would take losses in the process.

So yes, the Russian probably could stop one or a few Israeli attacks, but if the Israelis decided to engage in a sustained air campaign against targets in Syria there is nothing the Russians could do short of going to war with Israel. So here again a very basic strategic principle fully applies: you never want to start an escalatory process you neither control nor can win. Put simply this means: if the Russians shoot back – they lose and the Israelis win. It’s really that simple and both sides know it (armchair strategist apparently don’t).

And this begs a critical look at the second assumption:

Assumption #2: Russia has some moral duty to stop the Israeli attacks on Syria

This is the one which most baffles me. Why in the world would anybody think that Russia owes anybody anywhere on the planet any type of protection?! For starters, when is the last time somebody came to the help of Russia? I don’t recall anybody in the Middle-East offering their support to Russia in Chechnia, Georgia or, for that matter, the Ukraine! How many countries in the Middle-East have recognized South Ossetia or Abkhazia (and compare that with the Kosovo case!)? Where was the Muslim or Arab “help” or “friendship” towards Russia when sanctions were imposed and the price of oil dropped? Remind me – how exactly did Russia’s “friends” express their support for Russia over, say, the Donbass or Crimea?

Can somebody please explain to me why Russia has some moral obligation towards Syria or Iran or Hezbollah when not a single Muslim or Arab country has done anything to help the Syrian government fight against the Takfiris? Where is the Arab League!? Where is the Organization of Islamic Cooperation?!

Is it not a fact that Russia has done more in Syria than all the countries of the Arab League and the OIC combined?!

Where do the Arab and Muslims of the Middle-East get this sense of entitlement which tells them that a faraway country which struggles with plenty of political, economic and military problems of its own has to do more than the immediate neighbors of Syria do?!

Putin is the President of Russia and he is first and foremost accountable to the Russian people to whom he has to explain every Russian casualty and even every risk he takes. It seems to me that he is absolutely right when he acts first and foremost in defense of the people who elected him and not anybody else.

By the way – Putin was very clear about why he was ordering a (very limited) Russian military intervention in Syria: to protect Russian national interests by, for example, killing crazy Takfiris in Syria so as not to have to fight then in the Caucasus and the rest of Russia. At no time and in no way did any Russian official refer to any kind of obligation of Russia towards Syria or any other country in the region. True, Russia did stand by President Assad, but that was not because of any obligation towards him or his country, but because the Russians always insisted that he was the legitimate President of Syria and that only the Syrian people had the right to replace (or keep) him. And, of course, it is in the Russian national interest to show that, unlike the USA, Russia stands by her allies. But none of that means that Russia is now responsible for the protection of the sovereignty of the Syrian airspace or territory.

As far as I am concerned, the only country which has done even more than Russia for Syria is Iran and, in lieu of gratitude the Arab countries “thank” the Iranians by conspiring against them with the USA and Israel. Hassan Nasrallah is absolutely spot on when the calls all these countries traitors and collaborators of the AngloZionist Empire.

There is something deeply immoral and hypocritical in this constant whining that Russia should do more when in reality Russia and Iran are the only two countries doing something meaningful (and Hezbollah, of course!).

Now let me address a few typical questions:

Question #1: but aren’t Syria, Iran and Hezbollah Russian allies?

Yes and no. Objectively – yes. Formally – no. What this means is that while these three entities do have some common objectives, they are also independent and they all have some objectives not shared by others. Furthermore, they have no mutual defense treaty and this is why neither Syria, nor Iran nor Hezbollah retaliated against Turkey when the Turks shot down the Russian SU-24. While some might disagree, I would argue that this absence of a formal mutual defense treaty is a very good thing if only because it prevents Russian or Iranian forces in Syria from becoming “tripwire” forces which, if attacked, would require an immediate response. In a highly dangerous and explosive situation like the Middle-East the kind of flexibility provided by the absence any formal alliances is a big advantage for all parties involved.

Question #2 : does that mean that Russia is doing nothing or even supporting Israel?

Of course not! In fact, Netanyahu even traveled to Moscow to make all sorts of threats and he returned home with nothing (Russian sources even report that the Israelis ended up shouting at their Russian counterparts). Let’s restate here something which ought to be obvious to everybody: the Russian intervention in Syria was an absolute, total and unmitigated disaster for Israel (I explain that in detail in this article). If the Russians had any kind of concern for Israelis interests they would never have intervened in Syria in the first place! However, that refusal to let Israel dictate Russian policies in the Middle-East (or elsewhere) does not at all mean that Russia can simply ignore the very real power of the Israelis, not only because of their nukes, but also because of their de-facto control of the US government.

Question #3: so what is really going on between Russia and Israel?

As I have explained elsewhere, the relationship between Russia and Israel is a very complex and multi-layered one and nothing between those two countries is really black or white. For one thing, there is a powerful pro-Israel lobby in Russia at which Putin has been chipping away over the years, but only in very small and incremental steps. The key for Putin is to do what needs to be done to advance Russian interests but without triggering an internal or external political crisis. This is why the Russians are doing certain things, but rather quietly.

First, they are re-vamping the aging Syrian air defenses not only with software updates, but also with newer hardware. They are also, of course, training Syrian crews. This does not mean that the Syrians could close their skies to Israeli aircraft, but that gradually the risks of striking Syria would go up and up with each passing month. First, we would not notice this, but I am confident that a careful analysis of the types of targets the Israelis will strike will go down and further down in value meaning the Syrians will become more and more capable of defending their most important assets.

Second, it is pretty obvious that Russia, Iran and Hezbollah are working synergistically. For example, the Russians and the Syrians have integrated their air defenses which means that now the Syrians can “see” much further than their own radars would allow them to. Furthermore, consider the number of US cruise missiles which never made it to the Syrian air base Trump wanted to bomb: it is more or less admitted by now that this was the result of Russian EW countermeasures.

Finally, the Russians are clearly “covering” for Hezbollah and Iran politically by refusing to consider them as pariahs which is what Israel and the USA have been demanding all along. This is why Iran is treated as a key-player by the Russian sponsored peace process while the USA and Israel are not even invited.

So the truth of the matter is simple: the Russians will not directly oppose the Israelis, but what they will do is quietly strengthen Iran and Hezbollah, which is not only much safer but also much more effective.

Conclusion

We live in a screwed-up and dysfunctional society which following decades of US domination conflates war and aggression with strength, which implicitly accepts the notion that a “great country” is one which goes on some kind of violent rampage on a regular basis and which always resorts to military force to retaliate against any attack. I submit that the Russian and Iranian leaders are much more sophisticated then that. The same goes for the Hezbollah leadership, by the way. Remember when the Israelis (with the obvious complicity of some members of the Syrian regime, by the way) murdered Imad Mughniyeh? Hezbollah promised to retaliate, but so far, almost a decade later, they have not (or, at least, not officially). Some will say that Hezbollah’s threats were empty words – I totally disagree. When Hassan Nasrallah promises something you can take it to the bank. But Hezbollah leaders are sophisticated enough to retaliate when the time is right and on their own terms. And think about the Iranians who since the Islamic Revolution of 1979 have been in the crosshairs of both the USA and Israel and who never gave either one of them the pretext to strike.

When you are much more powerful than your opponent you can be stupid and reply on brute, dumb force. At least for the short to middle term. Eventually, as we see with the USA today, this kind of aggressive stupidity backfires and ends up being counterproductive. But when you are smaller, weaker or even just still in the process of recovering your potential strength you have to act with much more caution and sophistication. This is why all the opponents of the AngloZionist Empire (including Hezbollah, Syria, Iran, Russia, China, Cuba, Venezuela) do their utmost to avoid using force against the AngloZionists even when it would be richly deserved. The one exception to this rule is Kim Jong-un who has chosen a policy of hyperinflated threats which, while possibly effective (he seems to have outwitted Trump, at least so far) is also very dangerous and one which none of the Resistance countries want to have any part in.

The Russians, Iranians and Hezbollah are all “grown adults” (in political terms), and Assad is learning very fast, and they all understand that they are dealing with a “monkey with a hand grenade” (this fully applies to both Israeli and US leaders) which combines a nasty personality, a volatile temper, a primitive brain and a hand grenade big enough to kill everybody in the room. Their task is to incapacitate that monkey without having it pull the pin. In the case of the Israeli strikes on Syria, the primary responsibility to respond in some manner would fall either on the target of the strikes (usually Hezbollah) or on the nation whose sovereignty was violated (Syria). And both could, in theory, retaliate (by using tactical missiles for example). Yet they chose not to, and that is the wise and correct approach. As for the Russians, this is simply and plainly not their business.

Addendum 1:

One more thing. Make no mistake – the Israeli (and US!) propensity to use force as a substitute for diplomacy is a sign of weakness, not of strength. More, accurately, their use of force, or the threat of force, is the result of their diplomatic incompetence. While to the unsophisticated mind the systematic use of force might appear as an expression of power, history shows that brute force can be defeated when challenged not directly, but by other means. This is, by necessity, a slow process, much slower than a (mostly entirely theoretical) “quick victory”, but an ineluctable one nonetheless. In purely theoretical terms, the use of force can roughly have any one of the following outcomes: defeat, stalemate, costly victory and a relatively painless victory. That last one is exceedingly rare and the use of force mostly results in one of the other outcomes. Sometimes the use of force is truly the only solution, but I submit that the wise political leader will only resort to it when all other options have failed and when vital interests are at stake. In all other situation a “bad peace is preferable to a good war”.

Addendum 2:

Contrary to the hallucinations of the Neocons, Russia is absolutely not a “resurgent USSR” and Putin has no desire whatsoever to rebuild the Soviet Union. Furthermore, there is no meaningful constituency in Russia for any such “imperial” plans (well, there are always some lunatics everywhere, but in Russia they are, thank God, a tiny powerless minority). Furthermore, the new Russia is most definitely not an “anti-USA” in the sense of trying to counter every US imperial or hegemonic move. This might be obvious to many, but I get so many questions about why Russia is not doing more to counter the USA in Africa, Latin America or Asia that I feel that it is, alas, still important to remind everybody of a basic principle of international law and common sense: problems in country X are for country X to deal with. Russia has no more business than the USA in “solving” country X’s problems. Furthermore, country X’s problems are usually best dealt with by country X’s immediate neighbors, not by megalomaniacal messianic superpowers who feel that they ought to “power project” because they are somehow “indispensable” or because “manifest destiny” has placed upon them the “responsibility” to “lead” the world. All this terminology is just the expression of a pathological and delusional imperial mindset which has cost Russia and the Soviet Union an absolutely horrendous price in money, energy, resources and blood (for example, the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan was justified in terms of the “internationalist duty” of the Soviet Union and people to help a “brotherly nation”). While this kind of nonsense is still 100% mainstream in the poor old USA, it is absolutely rejected in modern Russia. For all the personal credibility of Putin with the Russian people, even he could not get away with trying to militarily intervene, nevemind police the whole planet, unless truly vital Russian interests were threatened (Crimea was such a very rare case). Some will deplore this, I personally very much welcome it, but the truth is that “the Russians are *not* coming”.

The Saker

bored muslim on January 18, 2018 · at 2:40 pm EST/EDT

Nice article Saker.

But slow down a bit on ‘ What have the Arabs/Muslims done for Russia, that Russia owes them.? Most of the Arab/Islamic countries have been subjected to usually U.S. imposed dictatorships, meddling, subversion, vassalage, etc. Take Egypt for Example. Geopolitically impotent and reliant on 3 billion of U.S. aid for towing the imperial line. Egypt is , and should be the ‘heart’ of the Muslim world with its history, scholarship ( Al – Azhar University, the oldest in the world, btw). Arab governments don’t represent the true mainstream(vast majority) current of the Arab/Muslim street. We are watching, carefully whats happening with Saudi collusion with Israel, and lovemaking with the U.S…bit”.

Except for perhaps Iran and Chechnya ( great models for the Islamic world should follow), the vast majority of the Arab/Muslim people are looking up to Iran , Hezbollah, Syria, Iraqi, Afghani, Yemeni resistance to kneel, and submit to the Jewish global agenda. We admire them, all 1.6 billion of us, except for maybe 100 million who are essentially salafi, Wahhabi, takfirist, mentally ill, young and impressionable( awkward youth who are all together mentally balanced), chances are we are the same as Russia’s own Muslims and the Muslims nations peoples are its peripheral.

Lets go back a bit. Way back. . At the onset of the 7th century, there appeared a tribe of people, with many sub-tribes who formed , by incessant war, terror, banditry etc. a Kingdom of Khazaria smack in the middle of Slavic Orthodox Russians(called Russ then). Anyway these new Khazarians adapted, simultaneously the Babylonian Talmud Jewry and the wars continued to rage with all the Kingdoms neighbors, the ‘Russ’ saw many atrocities committed on them, their towns, raided and occupied (somethings never change, I guess…see Palestine today) their lands and being very barbaric and racist supremacists, as the Talmud taught them.

When the Caliphate of the Muslim world was in Baghdad, at the time, heard of this barbarity, he sent an army to intervene and essentially stop the Khazars. First expedition was a very short success, the incessant banditry and racist barbarism by the Khazars continued when the Arab armies were called elsewhere. And the Khazars promised to keep the peace. So again an army was sent, I’m not sure, if by this time the Caliphate was in Damascus or Baghdad, but anyways the Khazars were defeated and promises to not further attack the Slavic Orthodox, armies went home. This continued on for centuries, until that is the Mongols arrived and everything changed. The Mongols were a non-religious people who attacked and conquered the known Islamic Caliphate of Baghdad, Syria until the were stopped at the Battle of Ain-Jalut, by the general of generals, Baibars.

Soon large armies of Mongols horde converted to Islam. The most powerful Mongol army , The Golden Horde headed north-west into Asia after destroying renegade Mongol armies and punishing by death of the Khan who sacked, and destroyed Baghdad, a Muslim city, personally.

As the Golden Horde met up with the Slavic Russ Orthodox, good relations emerged and the Mongol Khan, Berke Khan admired Christianity and soon the Moscovite princes and the Golden Horde formed a formidable army (as the Golden Horde don’t play around), Together they marched and utterly swept aside the Khazar’s away and there went the Kingdom of Khazaria, one thousand years ago. Some stayed, scattered around Russia in small numbers, others headed west into Eastern Europe, Western Europe and the the U.S.

So my point to all this is, that we saved the Slavic Russian Orthodox people from oppression of the worst type, starting a millennium ago. Since Catherine the Great, whose own personal royal guard were Muslims, we have been brothers.

Muslims (except for the tyrannical Ottomans, but that’s another story) have fought in perhaps all of Russia’s military campaigns since Peter the Great.

In the Great Patriotic War, WW2, when German forces were at Moscow’s suburbs, and Zhukov finally launched a great counteroffensive that basically saved Moscow but even Russia from disaster was averted, where do you think most, if not all of the troops involved were not but Soviet Muslims quickly trained in (Russia at the time has a great railway network), yes, Muslim infantry from the far East were brought in just in the nick of time. The Germans never faced this type of Russian fighting ferocity before, and it was a rout, with entire armored divisions abandoned and or destroyed. At the Battle of Stalingrad, both Muslim and Orthodox soldiers took very heavy casualties but eventually wore out the Germans. Again, there are many archived letters of German fighters describing the almost maddening ferocity of the the ‘new kind of Eastern looking’ Russian fighters.

In 2014, when the situation in the Donbass was critical, pretty much banditry (some things never change) and oppression led by the same tribe, Khazars (Ukraininn style) was oppressing the good, hardworking people of the Donbass, Mr. Khadyrov, the Muslim leader of the Russian Republic of Chechnya made a plea on behalf of his Orthodox Slavic brothers, and off his shock-troops went, by the thousands, it has been reported that the tarained, equipped and fought the Ukrainian army and eventually sent it reeling and badly damaged. The Battle of Donetsk Airport Chechen slaughter of whole battalions of Ukrainian soldiers, of course I also give full credit to the Donbass peoples militias, but the Battle of Dabaltsevo was also outflanking done by these highly trained and mobile Chechens. Incidentally, they saw action in Syria just recently too.

So my point is, is we Muslims, and Orthodox Slavic Russians are brothers and sisters , facing the same enemy and threats.

As Salam Wa Alem.

223 Comments

Anonymous on January 18, 2018 · at 10:18 am EST/EDT

Re: “Can somebody please explain to me why Russia has some moral obligation towards Syria or Iran or Hezbollah when not a single Muslim or Arab country has done anything to help the Syrian government fight against the Takfiris? ”

Sorry but I believe you are wrong here. Iran is a Muslim country (and Hezbollah is a Muslim organisation in Lebanon) and they are helping Syria expel the bandits — so, as I read it, you are somewhat contradicting yourself here.

And secondly, regarding Israeli aircraft — all carry limited fuel (not sure of effective flying time) and so the decommissioning of suitable airport runways for safe return and landing (e.g., from floating assets in the Caspian Sea) would likely be an effective deterrent strategy.
- The Saker on January 18, 2018 · at 12:00 pm EST/EDT
  
  Did you read the article?!
  I clearly wrote that Iran (and Hezbollah) were the exception to the rule and that Iran did even more than Russia?
  As for IDF aircraft, they have had inflight refueling for decades already as for “decommissioning runways” that is most definitely an act of war.
  I truly wonder if you read the article…
  - Bob on January 18, 2018 · at 3:13 pm EST/EDT
    
    “decommissioning runways” that is most definitely an act of war.”
    
    And bombing SAA, Iranian or Hezbollah targets within Syria are not? I understand your assessment here, and agree that the Russians/Iranians/Syrians are following the only viable strategy available to them at the moment with regard to US/Israeli attacks inside Syria. I don’t recall who said it, but it brings to mind “the strong do as they will and the weak suffer what they must”.
    
    That being said, at some point something is going to have to be done to BTFO the Israelis. It is the Israelis that are driving the chaos in Syria and the wider region (the House of Saud being a defacto Israeli protectorate). This chaos will not end until the Israelis see the costs of continuing their policies as being “worth it” to their long term interests/goals.
    
    I do not agree with your suggestion that Israeli policies will be changed by simply upgrading the air defense capabilities of the SAA. The Syrians (or someone) will actually have to demonstrate the ability and the will to strike the Israelis hard before anyone could seriously expect to see any real change in Israeli behavior.
    
    That being the case, it seems to me that a real war (ie. one in which both sides are attacking the other) against the Israelis is inevitable. The only question is one of timing. Certainly it would be foolish to allow oneself to be prodded into such a war before “the stage is set”, and this appears to me to be what is behind the seeming timidity of the Russians/Syrians/Iranians when it comes to Israeli military actions. When this war does come, I expect that the Russians will be fully supportive of their Syrian/Iranian partners even if the Russian armed forces play only a limited and covert role in the actual combat. The Russians will do this, not for moral reasons, but because their own interests demand that that they do so.
    
    When will this war come? I expect it will come when the “partners” have put in place the missile stockpiles necessary for a sustained missile barrage against the Israelis and sufficient ground/air defenses to prevent the Israelis from halting that barrage. That is to say, this war is coming soon…
    - The Saker on January 18, 2018 · at 4:25 pm EST/EDT
      
      “decommissioning runways” that is most definitely an act of war.”
      And bombing SAA, Iranian or Hezbollah targets within Syria are not?
      
      Not, not against Russia.
      Why in the world would RUSSIA start a war with Israel over Syrian, Iranian or Hezbollah targets.
      Did any of them declare war on Turkey when a Russian aircraft what shot down?
      How do you not see the complete fallacy of your logic?!?!
      - Bob on January 18, 2018 · at 6:10 pm EST/EDT
        
        Saker, you yourself have asserted that the Russians intervened in Syria to protect THEIR vital interests and with the knowledge that they are in line for “regime change” themselves if the US/Israel are successful in knocking of Syria and then Iran. So the Russian interest in reigning in the US/Israel seems to be clear, no?
        
        I think you also have stated your agreement that the Israelis, via their Jewish kin, largely control US foreign policy and and are certainly the driving force behind the US/Israeli plans to impose US hegemony over the Russians (and everyone else). So no, the Russians would not go to war over Syrian/Iranian/Hezbollah targets, but they most certainly will have to go to war (directly or through their partners as proxies) if they are to avoid being overwhelmed by the US/Israeli juggernaut. There is simply no evidence that would suggest that anything short of a severe bloody nose is going to cause them to reevaluate the situation.
        
        For example, even after the debacle with their ISIS proxies, Tillerson just came out to explain that the US intends to keep forces inside Syria until their original goals of deposing Assad and driving out Iranian influence have been achieved. The “fallacy” is in believing that the Russians can forever prevent the fall of Assad’s regime while doing nothing to actually deter the Israelis/US…Like I said, I agree with you in that the Russians would be foolish to attempt to confront the Israelis/US directly at this point, but that a confrontation is inevitable seems to me to be fairly obvious.
        
        By the way, thank you for your work.
        
        Bob
        
        The Saker on January 18, 2018 · at 9:13 pm EST/EDT
        
        The “fallacy” is in believing that the Russians can forever prevent the fall of Assad’s regime while doing nothing to actually deter the Israelis/US
        
        Is that what you see happening in Syria?
        What I see is that Russia and Iran won the civil war, beat the shit out of Daesh and are now rebuilding Syria.
        As for the Israelis, they are going insane with frustration.
        That is why they are engaging in strikes which make them feel better, but which will change nothing.
        That’s what I see.
        Cheers,
        The Saker
        
        Bob on January 19, 2018 · at 2:38 am EST/EDT
        
        “What I see is that Russia and Iran won the civil war, beat the shit out of Daesh and are now rebuilding Syria.”
        
        The Russians and Iranians have “won” the battle against ISIS, which was/is a US proxy force. US forces are firmly ensconced on Syrian territory and are in the process of partitioning the country. The Zionist war aims remain today exactly what they were when this war began. Sec. of State Tillerson just made a statement that US forces will remain in Syria until those goals are met. This new “Border force” the US is setting up is reported to be staffed half by Kurdish militia, who do you suppose the other half will be if not ex-ISIS fighters? This war is definitely NOT over.
        
        Russian intervention only deters the Zionists to the extent that they believe the Russians will directly oppose any direct move to drive Assad from power. This is largely a game of chess where both sides calculate their moves based upon just how far they believe they can push without forcing the other side into a direct confrontation. This is not a game that can go on indefinitely. If, as you say, the Russians are unwilling to engage in a direct confrontation with the US/Israel to prevent the overthrow of Assad, then the Zionists will soon enough come to this same conclusion and move against Assad directly without any fear of Russian intervention. They are busily testing the Russian forces in Syria right now. The recent attacks on the Russian air base being a good example.
        
        The Russians say they KNOW who was behind the drone attack, but yet they did not respond militarily. So now the Zionists know that they can engage in a campaign of attrition against the Russian forces in Syria with impunity…Are they wrong? How long before the Zionists become convinced that Putin is bluffing? Do you see where this is going? A major war with the Zionists is coming whether Putin wants it or not.
        
        IMO, this present strategy of ignoring Israeli/US attacks is not sustainable and will eventually lead to a direct US move to sweep Assad from power and drive out the Iranians. After which the Russian bases in Syria will become untenable and rather pointless. The current strategy of ignoring Israeli/US attacks only makes sense as an interim strategy while all the pieces are assembled for the coming war.
        
        The Russians have made it clear that they do not intend to ever fight another war on their own territory. In Syria, they have their only opportunity to fight this war on the Zionist’s territory. I believe this is precisely what is about to happen. In Syria the Russians have very strong and experienced proxy forces with which to wage a war (while hopefully avoiding a direct war with the US). They have the Americans (at least their ground forces) in an exposed and tactically untenable position inside Syria (as well as Afghanistan and Iraq). US air power in the region is also vulnerable to a preemptive strike by Iranian missile forces (perhaps with Russian assistance?). Turkey remains a wild card, but it is not inconceivable that the Turks will close Incirlik to US/Nato aircraft. Putin: “When a fight is unavoidable, strike first!”
        
        Anonymous on January 19, 2018 · at 9:30 am EST/EDT
        
        Thank you Bob for sharing your deep understanding of the imperialist mindset. Thank you Saker for your ever excellent military analyses. I see no contradiction in what you both said.
        
        Just one thing, dear saker, I think the game is not at all about morale. There is no moral player out there, not even a single one (those are all already assimilated by the system or dead). Please don’t feel insultet if one states that to survive, every polical leader has to play the hard game. Still Morale has a great value for the Russian people, and that is a very good sign for a healthy self-understanding. Contrary to people of the west, which are already mentally crippled.
        
        I don’t think Bob’s intention is to teach you, but rather providing an additional point of view, so that we can discuss them all. His observations in this post seem 100% correct to me, and I believe Putin and his excellent Staff are discussing these thoughts again and again. At the end of the day we’ll see the outcome.
        
        There is a saying asking why the dog licks it’s balls. Because he is able to. I think if Putin was able to, he’d already thrown the Americans out of the middle east completely! Only because his power projection capabilities are limited, he has to be VERY VERY clever and careful and play all the tricks he knows!
        
        Regarding Israel, well, that is a completely different matter.
        
        R.
        
        Rinat on February 11, 2018 · at 3:49 am EST/EDT
        
        Sorry late come Johny- but admire an excellent discussion & analysis of the subjected matter. Must
        concur with Bob – zionist’s and US A.F. becoming (almost month beyond this original discussion) clearly
        ISIS/ Daesh & numerous other named entities, US/Israel proxies’, their own Air Forces.
        And yes, every ammunition storage, truck, personnel of Syrian, Iranian Army or Hezbollah destroyed
        by Zionist or US A.F. is promptly utilized by newly sprouted US. trained/supported terrorist against
        Syr. Army. Downing 2 Israeli aircraft by still somehow less experienced or not sure Syr. Army proves
        increased Israel/ US activity, proving they are not giving up on removing Dr. Assad.
        And of course Zionist are searing with anger and predictably promise major response to those naughty
        Syrians who try to protect their land against killing intruders.
        If R.F. will continue ignoring such promised enhanced attacks against Syria – their and their allies gains
        will be quickly lost and the danger of major terrorist encroachment into R.F. occurs again!
        I am afraid, there may not be any more time to play non-understandable “diplomatic chess game”,
        by objecting in words to UN, or for that matter on the box in London’s Hide Park – no one cares!
        
        And yes, R.F. might be afraid to hit the attackers in the “jaw” (as “Anonymous” rightly observes),
        because there are not really many friends R.F. has in the region (as Saker rightly observes). It is
        late to hastily canvass Lebanon, which apparently already agreed to let R.F. Navy to use their Port
        facilities (and perhaps airports), but is mercurial Turkey on board? why not huge Kazakhstan? what
        about so much expectation from China? Well R.F. could rely on well trained North Korean Army, but
        then R.F. merrily voted to enhance more sanctions against N.K. (while sanctioned more themselves
        silly sods). We may experience a toughest time yet, in M.E., no doubt planned for Russian presidential
        election less than a month away.
        
        uncle tungsten on January 19, 2018 · at 9:47 pm EST/EDT
        
        Time is on Assad’s side and so then on Russia’s side. The EU is desperate by the day to have the tide of refugees return to their middle east homelands. They have a very compelling reason to see that Syria returns to a benign stable state asap. That means the jihadists get destroyed!
        
        Whilst many yearn for a ‘strike for justice’ against the perpetrators of Israel, Saudi, USA it doesn’t mean that is a smart move. That’s what those perpetrators desperately want but can’t get. To use a chess analogy; the rooks and knights surround the other sides pawns and remove them from the board.
        
        The yankees might set up some form of eastern force that might be a local problem but in the long term that will not affect the repatriation of refugees to the vast population centers of Syria. I suspect that ultimately the yankee eastern force will be whittled away by various means including the continuing decade of drought. Besides the backers of these puppets will endure significant governmental changes and that may assist in their demise.
        
        Anonymous on January 19, 2018 · at 2:46 am EST/EDT
        
        For the moment Russia and Iran were able to stop the “civil war”. (Wasn’t it a war of imported mercenaries?) Let’s wait with any assessments if they really “won” it: https://southfront.org/us-led-coalition-forming-30000-strong-force-to-control-syrian-border/
      - readare on January 19, 2018 · at 6:53 am EST/EDT
        
        Saker. I seldom disagree with anything you write, however on this occasion, your second assumption (Russia has a moral responsibility …) is in my view poor.
        
        I’m not sure of the exact phrase, but its something like “for evil to flourish, all it needs is that good men do nothing”
        
        And in the times we live in we need a few good men.
    - Ann on January 19, 2018 · at 3:25 am EST/EDT
      
      Bob, your quote here
      
      “That being said, at some point something is going to have to be done to BTFO the Israelis. It is the Israelis that are driving the chaos in Syria and the wider region (the House of Saud being a defacto Israeli protectorate). This chaos will not end until the Israelis see the costs of continuing their policies as being “worth it” to their long term interests/goals.
      
      Israel is shooting itself in the foot – a bigger and bigger hole in it every day with their treatment of Palestinians…and their treatment of Palestinians is THE SAME as their behaviour against Syria – their bullies – and it will never work out long term…with the air strikes on Syria its like mosquitoes – and the only real targets in Palestine are families and children – shocking –
      
      They are cowards – well dressed cowards like wall street bankers – short term life spam
      - Bob on January 19, 2018 · at 9:41 pm EST/EDT
        
        I agree completely. The Israelis are eager to stomp on the unarmed and/or defenseless. When it comes to fighting forces that have the ability to hit back in kind, they look to others to do the actual fighting. It should not be lost on us that the American public has acquiesced to this “war on terror” largely because it was sold to them as a “painless war”. There is no draft, nobody is being forced to go and fight and no bombs are falling on the US homeland…life goes on as if it is peace time.
        
        The Israeli public accepts a permanent state of war only because their government has convinced them that they have no need to make peace as their enemies cannot strike back at them in kind. Sure you have frustrated Palestinians engaging in knife attacks or running over people with a car from time to time, but largely the violence is relegated to the occupied territories, save the odd Quassam rocket lobbed over the border that seldom hits anything and even when they do, they inflict little damage. The Israelis have embraced this notion that they don’t need peace because it is preferable for them to simply “manage” the conflict. This will all change when the Israeli public spend a few weeks cowering in their basements while REAL missiles rain down on them, doing very real damage and inflicting REAL casualties.
        
        We all tend to look at the Israelis as all being fanatics, but this is actually not the case. They support Israel’s policies because they have no reason to compromise with anyone, much less the Palestinians. Sadat gave the Israelis a reason to make peace in 73 when thousands of Israelis were killed. The result was not some “Sampson option” but a desperate need in Tel Aviv to make peace with the Egyptians. Not only did they make peace with the Egyptians and return their territory, they (okay, the US tax payer) have been paying them billions of dollars every year ever since to remain at peace with the Israelis. What the Israelis desperately need is a reason to make peace. I believe that Iran and their allies are about to give them this reason.
        
        Bessarab on January 21, 2018 · at 4:47 pm EST/EDT
        
        yeah Mr. Bob . But “running over people with cars’ is actually an Israeli common past time “fun” , especially children, as a friend has witnessed in the occupied KZs multiple times in the 70ies and others too. This is a fascist racist genocidal sociopathic satanic filthy pervert place .
        Greetings to Babylon
    - Anon on February 04, 2018 · at 11:07 am EST/EDT
      
      I agree with Bob on this one.
  - paul on January 18, 2018 · at 5:44 pm EST/EDT
    
    YOu wrote it poorly buddy.
    
    I am not your buddy
    
    It read the way he said it read.
    
    then you both need to learn how to read a text
    
    Yeah later you sort of contradicted yourself
    
    “sort of”? no wonder you don’t understand :-)_
    
    I what I write is too challenging for you, don’t even try.
    Cheers,
    The Saker
    - Anonymous on January 18, 2018 · at 9:07 pm EST/EDT
      
      I doubt this will get through either.
      
      correct
      under rule #3 (/moderation-policy/)
      :-P
      :-)
      The Saker
    - Paranam Kid on January 19, 2018 · at 6:56 am EST/EDT
      
      Your comment is off topic. If you have a gripe about The Saker why not contact him off forum instead of polluting the forum?
- Anonymous on January 18, 2018 · at 12:48 pm EST/EDT
  
  The notion that Russia should place herself between Israel and Syria is nonsense.
  - Bob on January 19, 2018 · at 2:51 am EST/EDT
    
    “The notion that Russia should place herself between Israel and Syria is nonsense.”
    
    Nobody is suggesting that the Russians fall on their sword for some noble cause to defend what is not theirs.. What is being suggested is that the Russians support Syria/Iran/Hezbollah in their war against the Zionists because Russia herself is on the “regime change” target list of the Zionists. If Putin is not prepared to do this, then he is bluffing and he should get his people out of Syria while he still can.
    - RussianSoul on January 19, 2018 · at 10:00 am EST/EDT
      
      For the first time ever since I started reading this blog of Saker Masterpieces respectfully I am daring to disagree and support what Bob has mentioned.
      
      Russia has to get her act right! And it is not about who supported whom and not. When Russia was in bad situation it was mostly because of their own people who sold the country to the Yankees, it was not the fault of Saddam Hussein or Hasan Nasrallah or Khomeni or Qaddafi…
      
      Plus Assad Hugging Putin has zero value…Russia (Putin) for all the right reason is saving her own Butt.
      
      Israel is an anomaly and it has to be fixed…I agree with Bob “War is not over” and Russia pull out, back in and pull out back in from Syria game only encourages Israel, ISIS and USA. They mostly control the world and and they have few countries to take out of their way, and what Russia is happy with selling more oil and more gas…
      
      Sorry Russia you dont want trouble but trouble wants you better chose your sides!
      - waywardspam on January 19, 2018 · at 3:43 pm EST/EDT
        
        This is a great thread.
        I send appreciation to The Saker and the mods.
        I am very much appreciating Bob’s input, though not necessarily agreeing with all of it.
        Many of the comments so far are also very interesting, thank you contributors.
        
        Housekeeping:
        Bob: “Sorry but I believe you are wrong here. Iran is a Muslim country (and Hezbollah is a Muslim organisation in Lebanon) and they are helping Syria expel the bandits”
        Saker “I clearly wrote that Iran (and Hezbollah) were the exception to the rule and that Iran did even more than Russia?”
        Feedback: I also found that upon initially reading the article, I was surprised, as it seemed what Bob was saying was right. Of course, the Saker’s clarification came a bit further on; so the initial statement seemed out of place. I believe that the Saker’s writing style sometimes results in blips like this, and while the writing has improved greatly (and continues to do so), I suggests, Bob, that this is just an idiosyncrasy of writing style and now that you are alerted to it, this kind of misunderstanding will be minimized.
        
        As for Russia and the game of chess.
        I mostly support the Saker’s analysis.
        Putin is, obviously, in a complex situation, juggling many issues, larger and smaller. We, the people paying some attention to actual geopolitics, will soon be getting close to a consensus that, whatever Putin’s values and/or priorities, currently, he is emerging as the best champion of almost everybody alive.
        One of the reasons is that he is the most lucid significant ‘actor’ on the global geopolitical stage; to be more precise, (again, regardless of his ostensible priority/job: servant of the RUSSIAN people), his actions are the most consistent with longer term survival of the human species.
        I agree with the Saker’s, and other commenter’s, view of the ultimately pragmatic actions of Putin; at least that is my perception.
        I agree also that his actions in the MENA have been a gamechanger, coming more or less at the eleventh hour in the implementation of the empire’s hegmonic implementations.
        The U.S.A. is suffering the degeneration of all of the host countries, taken over by the parasite, over the past 25 centuries (Babylon, Persia, ‘Islamic‘ Spain, the Ottoman empire, and you could make a good case for the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Soviet); the parasite secret negative-sum-gain approach, favours them, but will always lead to the degeneration of all the hosts’ institutions and corruption of the culture which enabled them to become dominant in the first place.
        So it goes.
        We can see the utter ridiculousness of the ‘state of the union’; as I write, Friday afternoon, we approach, yet another, ‘shut down’ of the government, as the rival political party ‘games-the-system’ by extorting the government to implement its agenda, counter to the ruling party’s agenda, through blocking the approval of debt extension to the ridiculously high government debt.
        it’s really pathetic.
        Overlaying the last century of U.S. habit of ‘projecting power’ around the globe, righteously, is a poor baseline to evaluate Russia’s practice of minimal intervention, so far with outcomes of win-win-win.
        
        I acknowledge Bob, and other commenters (and I’d bet the Saker would agree) that the ‘war’ is not over in the MENA; but most people here realize that the war will never be over until the extremist talmudian-zionists, and all basis for ideologies, which mandate the separation of their collective from the rest of humanity, and negative-sum-gain game the system, secretly, justified and enabled (by empathetic disablement) by a ridiculous racial myth of chosenness under a higher power is uniformly made illegal under world law (of course, they’d want to get an exception for that; I’m sure they argue on the point incessantly).
        
        Summary on Putin and ‘allowing’ anything outside his mandate with the Russian people:
        He’s shown tact, intelligence, vision, and delivered (so far) the best outcomes, for everybody (who isn’t against the rest of humanity/demanding recognition of their exceptionalism/dominance), and he hasn’t played his last card yet, I’d wager.
        In fact, he’s the best we’ve got (humanity), and the least hypocritical in his actions.
        The situation in Syria is extremely complex, and if there’s a guy who can deal with it, anyone you can trust, I trust Putin.
        
        (it’s not like I am nominating him for sainthood, but he has clearly differentiated himself as the best among the lot).
        
        Olivier on January 21, 2018 · at 9:45 am EST/EDT
        
        Yes, I agree that there is so much for thoughts in this thread. The Saker is exposing very clearly what it is all about. Now it is necessary to consider the following:
        1) In Russia there is soon the Presidential election. Is it too much to ask to wait until Putin will be reelected?
        2) When the Russian plane was shot down by Turkey, what happened? Those here asking for military immediate retaliation, did they have the same discourse then? What would have been the result? And look at the situation now: Turkey is at war with the USA. They just bombed an airport used by the USA for smuggling weapons to their proxies. And what are doing the Kurds? They ask help from whom? Not from the USA.
        3) We do not know all what is played behind the scene. One thing is quite sure for me. Russia behave most cleverly, with patience and I trust the Russian government completely that they do and will do what is best for themselves and for their allies.
        4) Russia knows who is behind the multiple drone attack. They said it, but did not reveal the name of the culprit. They will not forget. Patience, patience… See number 2) above.
        Thanks for reading.
        
        waywardspam on January 21, 2018 · at 10:00 am EST/EDT
        
        Olivier:
        Thanks for commenting.
        Just one think, I strongly urge you to EVER “trust” ANY “government completely”.
        Putin battles internal conspirators everyday, every minute, and every second, who would do just as the Empire does.
        Furthermore, we do not have any idea what is inside the man himself, all we can do is see the observable outcomes, and make an extrapolation on potential future outcomes.
        So far, he is an anomaly.
        We are lucky that he has thus far behaved anomalous, but we have no idea what his long game might be, for one of his observable comparative advantages is his strategic … patience, as you have described it.
        
        Read you later.
        
        Anonymous on January 21, 2018 · at 12:10 pm EST/EDT
        
        Putin probably will win the election. His victory, however, might turn into a big defeat. Lately, (despite what russian media say) the majority of the Russian people are grossly disapointed mainly by his internal policy and to an increasing degree by his inconsistent external one. Remember, Russian fedration is a presidential republic, which makes the president directly responsible for both internal and external politics.
        Besides, for the first time, there is a real (and supported by the common people) rival candidate for the presidential position – Pavel Grudinin. The russian media already launched series of attacs against him, result – more support from people.
        
        Anonymous on January 21, 2018 · at 5:13 pm EST/EDT
        
        I hope your predictions are wrong. I’ve read about internal problems as well. Hopefully President Putin will be able to address those as well (without selling any state owned enterprises, especially not to foreign investors) and present some comprehensive plan in order to support the creation of local businesses and reduce corruption. Considering the aspect of corruption I would like to say that I’m not sure if it’s than in Western Countries (starting on the local level and going up to high political positions). The West resembles some self-service shop for “our” elites.
        
        Regarding the drone attack mentioned by Olivier, I’ve got some theory:
        
        Since the drones were intended for single use, there was no need to build the fuselage with high-tech components. Despite a nearly endless amount of money for all the three letter agencies and the military they’re still attempting cutting costs. The cheaper the weapon, the more they can buy.
        
        Using a drone swarm could’ve been to test several things at once:
        
        1. The ability of the Russians to defend themselves against drones.
        
        2. To test latest (KI) technology of drones communicating amongst themselves (http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2018/01/11/how-deadly-drone-swarms-will-help-us-troops-on-frontline.html)
        
        Ric on January 21, 2018 · at 7:00 pm EST/EDT
        
        Anon…Garbage.Putin has huge support.Have you listened to his competitors speak?You are either a Putin hater or (removed,don’t use insults.MOD.)
        
        Anonymous on January 22, 2018 · at 8:26 pm EST/EDT
        
        Putin’s support in Russia is rapidly deteriorating. I am not a Putin hater at all. But I am pro Russia first and formost.
        
        Carmel by the Sea on January 23, 2018 · at 5:35 pm EST/EDT
        
        Anon,
        
        Any pro Russia first and foremost ( peace makers across the world included) should seriously consider that Putin is the greatest statesman that the 20th century and possibly 21st century will have and be grateful to God. Or Fate if you are an atheist.
        
        In my humble opinion, Putin is a blessing from God Himself to Russians. To the world too, though in a smaller scale as he is just the president of Russia.
        
        Personally, I thank God Putin is president. I am not Russian. I see a moral, just, calm and collected and true Christian at the helm of a very important country. It is because of Putin that many citizens of the world vocally defend Russia.
        
        If Russians’ support for Putin is deteriorating I pray God help you all. It is doubtful that Russia ( no other country has for hundreds of years) will get such a man like Putin again.
        Putin speaks and acts ” Peace” . He has raised the respect of Russia for people all over the world.
        
        I measure like this:
        If the governments and media of US & Israel hate Russia then surely Putin is on God’s side.
        
        Carmel by the Sea
        
        Carmel by the Sea on January 23, 2018 · at 5:47 pm EST/EDT
        
        Anon,
        
        Forgot to mention Pavel Grudinin is a billionaire. I doubt he has “the interest of the people”.
        This Pavel sounds like another wealthy guy pretending to ” care for the working class”.
        Trump, Clinton, Bush father and son come to mind.
        
        Btw…Isn’t he from the Communist Party? Strange, “according” to Communists “equality is a must for all”.
        U- huh. I heard that a long time ago while living under a Communist regime.
        
        Carmel by the Sea
        
        Anonymous on January 24, 2018 · at 2:49 pm EST/EDT
        
        Pavel Grudinin is not a member of the Communistic party, but yes, he is displaying the communistic values in the Sovhos “Lenin”, whose director he was for 30 years. You should go, see and ask people who live and work there. He did not participate in the blatant carnage, called privatization that Putin repeatedly refuse to audit and revise. He did not make his millions (not billlions, this is media frenzy) by working, not by stealing or by exploatation of others. I am a millioner by working like hell for many years with my own head and hands, so what?
      - DONALDO on January 22, 2018 · at 4:59 am EST/EDT
        
        I dare to think Putin (and many Americans) are waiting for the economic unwind that is coming. It will be a time, maybe shortly, that American shadow government (USSA) will not be able to print money willy-nilly to finance all these disasters that they inflict upon the world just because certain psychopaths presently in power, can do it.
        It will be a time of universal hurt, but this war mongering has to stop. It will and is already crashing in upon itself. If given time, like the wounded animal that it is…this evil will bleed out. It is still the monkey with a hand grenade, in the mean time.
- maurizio on March 28, 2018 · at 9:41 am EST/EDT
  
  La Russia ha un trattato di alleanza con la Siria sin dal 1971 ( Assad padre ) ecco perchè dell’esistenza del diritto delle due basi.
bizantura on January 18, 2018 · at 10:31 am EST/EDT

The Western world has regressed to toddler status, hardly adults left willing to take responsibility for anything.
So looking at Russia for new daddy or mummy status feels natural since their own mummy/daddy is so broke and has become the threat.

Thankfully, Russia isn’t willing.
Master on January 18, 2018 · at 10:33 am EST/EDT

Totally agree with you Saker. Every Country should take care of His/Her problems. That is Sovereignty.
- Oscar on January 18, 2018 · at 1:08 pm EST/EDT
  
  Yes, and Russia together with Iran are acting in defense of Syria s sovereignity.
  - Englishman on January 18, 2018 · at 5:15 pm EST/EDT
    
    Yes and that’s a good thing,they know they are next if the Reich isn’t stopped dead in Syria.
Serg on January 18, 2018 · at 10:40 am EST/EDT

I very much agree with you, especially on that “moral” obligation part. Morals is something the US is preaching day in, day out. Look where that has gotten us.

The Zionist Israel problem will take care of itself eventually. Israels policies are unsustainable and would only work if they always had a powerful guardian nation and would expand outward like Oded Yinon planned. However, Syria is lost to them, the US is crumbling and will collapse with the next financial crisis. Which will be the mother of all economic meltdowns. It would have been a softer crash, had these geniuses not pumped trillions into the Zombie economy to keep it walking a bit further, and instead let it fully crash 10 years ago. All they did was delay the inevitable and ensured that it will be a magnitude worse than it could have been. Also one of, if not the reason for the ramping up of all the wars under Obama, remember the guy started at least 5, depending on how you look it it, it’s actually more.

They tried to force the unipolar order before the eventual collapse and are now out of time. Which also means, Israel is out of time. Israel will collapse under the weight of international sanctions and blockade, which will happen if the US is not there to bark at everyone. Israel has barely any friends in the middle east and once nobody can even pretend to deny that Iran is the regional superpower, there will be a different set of strings playing, none of which favour Israel.

PS: I don’t doubt Israel has nukes, I doubt the existence of any “Samson” option. Any missiles launched would ensure a total, global genocide of Jews everywhere after a few of them hit. It’s a pre-emptive scare tactic to keep potential attackers at bay, nothing more.
- chimmy on January 18, 2018 · at 7:51 pm EST/EDT
  
  A unipolar world is unworkable, period. All that is needed–to borrow a term from Thayer and Sunstein– is a nudge. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nudge_(book)
  - chimmy on January 18, 2018 · at 8:37 pm EST/EDT
    
    …and it goes without saying that Russia’s Syria intervention was such a nudge.
  - Serg on January 19, 2018 · at 1:33 pm EST/EDT
    
    “Impossible” has never stopped the arrogant, ignorant, downright stupid so called “elites” from trying to achieve it.
- bernie on January 19, 2018 · at 11:06 am EST/EDT
  
  I heard them saying. If it is not us it is nobody. Them is an ex IDF soldier. They care about nobody not even their own kind. Their ultimate aim is world domination. It is very deep
- Si Dirst on January 20, 2018 · at 3:24 am EST/EDT
  
  Putin and Xi are working to reduce the American war machine by reducing the value of the American Petro$. This is a slow but effective way to force the reduction of the size and scope of US military engagements globally.
  
  Israel’s Samson mode is their growing nuclear armed submarine fleet. However one thinks of its various potential uses, they are all potentially very destructive and are designed to counter the numerical soldier resource advantages of her adversaries.
  
  The careful support for Syria, especially strengthening her ability to defend herself, is very wise of Russia.
- trixie dixie on January 21, 2018 · at 10:06 am EST/EDT
  
  Serge:
  Read “The Controversy of Zion” by Douglas Reed, and you might not be so dismissive of the “Samson option”.
  The mission is ultimately to destroy and/or dominate, in that order.
  “They” will certainly not “take care of itself”, or at least in a manner beneficial to the vast majority of human kind and the biosphere, and neither likely for the majority of their self-identifying membership, which likely does NOT know what the well documented and historical activities of their tyrannical, hateful little secret society has been up to.
  
  Anyways, I hope you read the book, the more people who are aware of the history and can identify the ongoing mechanics, the more likely there will be a method to counter this terror.
  - Serg on January 21, 2018 · at 4:07 pm EST/EDT
    
    Thanks for the book tip, wrote it down for later.
    
    As for Israel, it will take care of itself, I am very, very sure of it. Israel is unsustainable. Many people are leaving because they are fed up with the government and it’s policies and the number of emigrants will only increase in the future, the other UN countries are increasingly voicing their displeasure and Israel is just pissing them off even more in response, their guardian, the US, is failing on all fronts and there will come a time very soon where the US is unable to back Israel any longer – what then? It will collapse.
    
    I am fully aware we aren’t dealing with rational people, we are dealing with lunatics with delusions of grandeur. However, there is no chance for any kind of Samson option to succeed. Impossible, they launch the first nuke and they are done for. They can’t possibly have enough missile silos to wreck the globe, even if they tried.
    
    I will read the book when I’m done with my backlog, and perhaps it will present a different perspective I have not considered, but I can’t see it happening any way I look at it at the moment.
    - PerfumedGhouls1887@yahoo.com on January 23, 2018 · at 6:07 pm EST/EDT
      
      Hi Serg,
      
      You are correct. In fact Israel is imploding in varied ways that most people have no idea of.
      
      Here is an article that says ” 40% of Israelis want to leave”.
      https://www.haaretz.com/.premium-bye-the-beloved-country-1.5273011
      
      Israel CPS steals Jewish children and drug them with Ritalin:
      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vxY_jMg2hfs
      
      American Jew trapped in Israel for 16 years!
      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7NpPq38Bw9Y
      
      Israelis asking the UN for help:
      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-vLBZFP2pV8
      
      Regards,
      Carmel by the Sea
  - Rebel Yell on February 10, 2018 · at 9:51 am EST/EDT
    
    Douglas Reed wrote about a dozen books from before WW2 into the 70’s. You can find them online for free, or you used to, some are on Amazon. Controversy of Zion is a masterpiece and I agree it’s an incredible historical telling of the rise of the zionists and (((communism))). It’s shameful that history has erased him and his works because he was a brave truth teller, an incredible writer and researcher, and his books accurately document that element of 20th century history and clearly explain how we have gotten to where we are now.
- Astraea on February 22, 2018 · at 1:11 am EST/EDT
  
  “We Jews, the destroyers, will remain the destroyers forever. Nothing theGentiles do will meet our demands. We want a world of our own.” Maurice Samuel.
Anonius on January 18, 2018 · at 10:43 am EST/EDT

Excellent argumentation. I would like to add regarding what you said about shouting. It is and always been an indication of losing the discussion. Some people start yelling when they can’t convince someone. Polish people have a saying: “weź ich na krzyk”, which basically means “start yelling -> to scare them”
Finally V.V.Putin said it on many occasions that “Russia is not a World Policeman and it does not intend to because it costs to much”
J Swift on January 18, 2018 · at 10:44 am EST/EDT

Wow, what a great piece! I agree with your analysis completely, but I will admit that there are times when my indignation at the bullying conduct of Israel (and the US) really gets me boiling and mumbling to myself “Man I’d love to see somebody spank those bastards for that cowardly BS!” It’s good to be reminded that responding in overt force to brute force is in effect an admission that other, more grown-up and sophisticated countermeasures have been tried and failed. So far, they’re actually succeeding.

Right now, it is dawning on a larger and larger percentage of the world that the AngloZionist SOP of demands and threats in lieu of genuine negotiation or seeking win-win solutions is truly a sign of weakness–in fact, the AngloZionists have nothing to offer the world but military force. So while it takes the “better man” to resist the urge to immediately retaliate in kind, Russia (and China, and even Iran) are showing how it is done, and I think it is becoming objectively obvious that their way is slowly prevailing. Besides, the strongest argument for a prompt shoot-down of Israeli or US jets is that “then they would see there are consequences for their actions.” But–really? Does anyone really think the loss of a couple jets would cause the Neocons to step back and say “oh, wow, we didn’t realize they might fight back. We’d better stop!” Not frickin’ likely! There is simply no scenario in which that would not lead to an escalation, with the Neocons rubbing their hands with glee the whole time. No, Russia is categorically acting exactly as it should.
Rick on January 18, 2018 · at 10:44 am EST/EDT

This is a wonderful article that clarifies many things.
Having spent most of my life in the U.S. close to the center of power, what strikes me as most pertinent is the deep personal corruption of those in power. The notion that relations with other nations should be based on force and violence is reflected all the way down the line. Those at the bottom suffer the most; witness the huge and growing numbers of people in poverty, drug-dependent, addicted to all kinds of pornographic media, etc. The system is served and maintained by the gigantic contractor workforce of the military-industrial-intelligence complex, where a computer programmer our of college gets a starting salary of $100,000, while a teacher with a lifetime of experience earns far less for much more work. This is just one sign among many of the corruption.
I happen to believe that the AngloZionist Empire is run by people possessed by demons. At the individual level it is soul-destroying. It has happened because they have rejected their historical Christian faith, as Putin correctly notes. What the churches today preach is not Christianity as Jesus taught. Those countries that resist are the ones where faith is still alive–whether true Christian, or Muslim, which also honors Jesus, or, increasingly, perhaps, a Confucianist China.
So it’s a war between good and evil. The Empire stands only for evil. It has extended its control over every aspect of life.
My own view is that you cannot destroy this evil by attacking it directly, as the resisting nations know. The only way to move forward is spiritual renewal, starting with every individual’s responsibility to confront his own demons and work out his salvation as Jesus taught. I also believe that Jesus did not come just for those who would become Christians but for everyone in the world. In some ways his mission is just beginning, and you don’t have to belong to a church to participate in it. But you do have to find our what Jesus was really saying and how that can be implemented in one’s own life, starting with one’s own heart, mind, and soul. Guidance is needed for this. The search for such guidance ought to be our most important enterprise at present. It will lead, of course, to our own inner confrontation with the forces that want to destroy us. That is just a battle we all have to wage.
Thank you Saker.
- mundanomaniac on January 18, 2018 · at 5:11 pm EST/EDT
  
  “I also believe that Jesus did not come just for those who would become Christians but for everyone in the world. In some ways his mission is just beginning, and you don’t have to belong to a church to participate in it. But you do have to find our what Jesus was really saying and how that can be implemented in one’s own life, starting with one’s own heart, mind, and soul.”
  
  Great comment political and spiritual.
  - Anonymous on January 20, 2018 · at 7:01 am EST/EDT
    
    @But you do have to find out what Jesus was really saying:
    
    For that you really have to search the Scriptures where you will find the guidance:
    
    “Jesus said unto them, Verily, verily, I say unto you, Moses gave you not that bread from heaven; but my Father giveth you the true bread from heaven. 33 For the bread of God is he which cometh down from heaven, and giveth life unto the world. 34 Then said they unto him, Lord, evermore give us this bread. 35 And Jesus said unto them, I am the bread of life: he that cometh to me shall never hunger; and he that believeth on me shall never thirst. 36 But I said unto you, That ye also have seen me, and believe not. 37 All that the Father giveth me shall come to me; and him that cometh to me I will in no wise cast out. 38 For I came down from heaven, not to do mine own will, but the will of him that sent me. 39 And this is the Father’s will which hath sent me, that of all which he hath given me I should lose nothing, but should raise it up again at the last day. 40 And this is the will of him that sent me, that every one which seeth the Son, and believeth on him, may have everlasting life: and I will raise him up at the last day” (John 6:32-40).
    
    The guidance is through the Church in which abides the Holy Spirit:
    
    “16 And I will pray the Father, and he shall give you another Comforter, that he may abide with you for ever; 17 Even the Spirit of truth; whom the world cannot receive, because it seeth him not, neither knoweth him: but ye know him; for he dwelleth with you, and shall be in you. 18 I will not leave you comfortless: I will come to you. 19 Yet a little while, and the world seeth me no more; but ye see me: because I live, ye shall live also. 20 At that day ye shall know that I am in my Father, and ye in me, and I in you. 21 He that hath my commandments, and keepeth them, he it is that loveth me: and he that loveth me shall be loved of my Father, and I will love him, and will manifest myself to him” (John 14:16-21).
- bernie on January 19, 2018 · at 11:30 pm EST/EDT
  
  this is a very nice comment Thanks Rick
- Carmel by the Sea on January 23, 2018 · at 6:59 pm EST/EDT
  
  Rick,
  
  Good post. Particularly the part that says : “AngloZionist Empire is run by people possessed by demons”.
  
  Carmel by the Sea
vot tak on January 18, 2018 · at 10:45 am EST/EDT

Excellent analysis.

Read that article referred to at the beginning of Saker’s article here and dismissed it as a clever psyop that was intended to support zionazi, inc. by denigrating Russia for not answering zionazi provocations the way the zionazis wanted. And which would be advantageous to them instead of Russia or her allies. Basically, a sophisticated Russia bashing exercize not too different from the spamming in the comments seen regularly on this site.
- Where-Wolf on January 18, 2018 · at 6:10 pm EST/EDT
  
  You are absolutely correct vot tak — this is a psyop question, 100%. The only reasonable answer is more or less the one Saker has given, and I will quote it below while asking everyone to meditate upon it for a moment or two:
  
  This is the one which most baffles me. Why in the world would anybody think that Russia owes anybody anywhere on the planet any type of protection?!
  
  So I will ask several different but related questions, more in tune with those actually being asked by normal people who have witnessed the enveloping madness of human affairs over the last 40 odd years.
  
  What, if anything, did Russia owe Serbia in 1998, or for that matter in 1914?
  
  and
  
  What, if anything, is Russia’s responsibility as a Slavic nation, with an avowedly Christian President, elected in a theoretically Democratic process representing the people of Russia, were the United States and NATO to resume bombing Serbia back to the stone age begining tomorrow?
  
  Had there been no Serbia in 1998, would there have been a Libya, Ukraine or Syria from 2011-14?
  
  Further and so much more importantly, what, if anything, is the responsibility of each of us as individuals, when we see our friends, neighbours, or perhaps far away strangers being victimized in some unspeakable way?
  
  —————————————————————————————————————————-
  
  The world is controlled by bonafide psycopaths (meaning they have no empathic capacity), overseen and administered by sociopaths (meaning they have limited empathic capacity), and all feeding upon the remaining 95% of us who absolutely do feel the pain of all of those who suffer.
  
  For clarity and to emphasize the point I wish to make further down, I will copy and paste the dictionary definition of empathy below:
  
  empathy
  
  noun
  
  definition: The ability to understand and share the feelings of another.
  
  —————————————————————————————————————————-
  
  It is reprehensible to watch the 95% of us who are emapthic, attempt to answer questions posed by sociopaths, commisioned in the first place by psycopaths, which are in and of themselves specifically designed to elicit responses which are either sociopathic or psycopathic.
  
  Make no mistake — the progess of Zionism requires that you either become, or at least attempt to become, a sociopath or psycopath in your dealings with your fellow human beings.
  
  And because it is relevant specifically to this blog I must mention that Jesus Christ was ultimate the anti-Zionist for all time — all leading to my final question and comment:
  
  Why do we empathic people disgusted by the behaviour of Israelis in Palestine, as one example, or the Ukro-Nazis who burned their fellow human beings alive in Odessa, as another, allow psycopaths and sociopaths to determine the terms of our discourse about how we should live or how the world should be for the 95% of us who want to live in peace and get along with our neighbours?
  - Rob from Canada on January 18, 2018 · at 6:43 pm EST/EDT
    
    1) They hijack ideologies and infect societies with psychopathic values. Like democracy, and capitalism in America. 2) They consciously understand and take advantage of instinctual thinking shortcuts that humans have evolved: Like if a person looks good, they must be good and if a person is confident they must be telling the truth.
    
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_ponerology#Psychopathology_and_politics
  - waywardspam on January 19, 2018 · at 4:13 pm EST/EDT
    
    Where-
    I love your comment, and have appreciated others before this one.
    
    I have spent much cognitive energy contemplating the method of the parasite, even before I was cognitively emancipated from the socially engineered brainwashing through the media, blocking consideration of just what the motive agency was behind the very strong trend towards empathetic disablement in our so-called ‘western’ societies.
    
    The problem is of course that the culturally indoctrinated ‘values’ of separating the next generation from the rest of humanity, by continuous psychological abuse, chiefly creating a fear against all not in the in-group, thereby establishing a selective empathetic disconnect for all out-group members, enables, even encourages greater aggression with societies. This, augmented by cultural training in covert subversion of societal institutions, gives a systemic advantage to the in-group members of the collective. The process of upward mobility is greatly enhanced by the establishment of extra-governmental agencies, which effectively further the extra rights, and lesser responsibilities of members of the collective in good standing, and debilitating rival influencers and upward mobility of individuals/groups who would protest the systemic ‘exceptional’ treatment under society of the collective.
    
    The approach is reifying, that is, to compete with it, you have to adopt it.
    
    Success is emulated, so, like the stock-broker who suffers an injury to their brain, eliminating all moral consideration, and then excels at investments, there is a slow adoption of the principles of empathetic disablement by greater and greater components of the society, for achievement of their extra rights and reasons why they should get exemptions from responsibilities (disabled parking permits and now ‘service dogs’ (for emotionally fragile mostly women)).
    But the self-inflicted empathetic disablement, in the absence of the collective’s cohesion, unified self-serving activities, training in covert subversion, and without the support of a powerful extra-governmental agency like the ADL, the empathetic disablement only results in breakdown of social cohesion, thus increasing the disarray of the out-group majority (divide and conquer).
    Ultimately this breakdown in social cohesion of the out-group majority makes them much more susceptible to defacto enslavement.
    Which is what we are seeing today.
    
    We need cohesion of purpose among those of us who haven’t yet broken, but we live in fear of covert exposure, non?
    How do you start the resistance, when their ‘gestapo’ is everywhere?!?
    This is why people all over the world are coming to see Putin as some kind of a hero, even though he’s just, really doing his job.
War for Blair Moiuntain on January 18, 2018 · at 10:50 am EST/EDT

Israel would be in very big trouble were it not for the fanatical support of US Deep South Evangelical Christians and US Conservative White Catholics…from these two demographic groups does Israel’s power flow from…..
- Rick on January 18, 2018 · at 11:01 am EST/EDT
  
  Yes, I agree with this comment. I have first-hand experience with both of these churches which have sold out their religion. They have made themselves into the Pharisees that Jesus attacks. Behind their masks is deep hatred for the “other.” They are destroying their own souls.
  - War for Blair Moiuntain on January 18, 2018 · at 11:30 am EST/EDT
    
    I was born…baptized…raised Irish Catholic…Catholic School Parochial School and Catholic High School…..I am no longer Catholic….Deep South Evangelical Christians are retard canon fodder for OUR FRIEND ISRAEL!!!!….Mainstream Protestant Churches are enthusiasts for legalized filth homo-marriage and tranny-horned freak-SATANISMS!!!!!
    
    I am looking forward to making a visit to the Christian Russian Monastery in the bucolic Mohawk Valley…the economically distressed region of New York State where Donald Trump’s MAGA!!!!!! jobs program consists of Working Class Native Born White Christian Teenage Males signing military contracts to be cannon fodder for Jared Kushner and Steven Miller……
    
    I pray to Dear Jesus every night for an eruption of the Yellow Stone Caldera…soon…..very soon Dear Jesus……
    - Anonymous on January 18, 2018 · at 1:29 pm EST/EDT
      
      Call Fr Luke at Jordanville. Im sure you would be welcome.
    - Andrew on January 18, 2018 · at 3:25 pm EST/EDT
      
      Never pray for evil. Your last comment sounds like something an Evangelical would shout on a street corner. Pray for Christ to have mercy on all men, starting with yourself. The Fathers at Jordanville will love to show you how. Господи помилуй!
- Seward on January 18, 2018 · at 4:40 pm EST/EDT
  
  From what I’ve read you may be right about the conservative deep-South Evangelical Christians, at least their churches. Don’t know many personally. But having grown up in white Catholic areas of Eastern and Southern Minnesota, now living in a predominately white Catholic area of Maryland, Catholic myself, I’ve never encountered any conservative Catholic support of Israel. Almost the opposite in fact. I did know some Catholics of Eastern European decent that believed their ancestral counties were somehow sold out to the Soviets at Yalta, but they were part of an older, now passing generation, and never evinced any solidarity with Israel. They were generally mildly anti-Semitic in the popular sense, definitely not pro-Israel. What you say is likely a canard.
- chimmy on January 18, 2018 · at 9:49 pm EST/EDT
  
  Protestant support for Israel is totally understandable, given that so-called protestant “churches” are in fact synagogues– houses where the word is preached. The “Indispensable Nation” functions as the de facto church, exercising universal authority. The Israel in the world today is accepted uncritically, as the Israel in the bible.
  With Catholics, the situation is different. Catholic theology should prevent such an abberation — but who has time for theology –besides there is enough going on in the road to holiness to examine what ideology one might tacitly support. Chalk it up to the years of rubbing shoulders with protestants and neocon Catholic intellectuals like George Weigel and John Neuhaus.
  - Anonymous on January 19, 2018 · at 9:01 am EST/EDT
    
    Which kind of Protestants are you writing about? Martin Luther is considered an anti-semite.
    
    As far as I know most Protestant Churches aren’t agitating against other religions, but they’re not cheering for others as well.
    
    With those folks called “Evangelicals” (the US version) the story is entirely different. You’ve to look at them on an individual basis. Some of their pastors are publishing videos on youtube. Several of them are “similar” to regular Protestants (as mentioned above), but others are feverishly supporting Israel. The latter ones are the ones you’re writing about.
    - chimmy on January 19, 2018 · at 6:37 pm EST/EDT
      
      Luther was a philosemite before he turned anti but never mind. I admit that I was painting with a broad brush, trying to make a connection between ecclesiology and politics. Still, take a regular protestant denomination like the United Methodists you will likely that the rank and file (not the clergy) support Israel in the same proportions as the country at large. For that balance, Methodists are labeled “liberal.”
    - Bugged on January 20, 2018 · at 6:03 am EST/EDT
      
      I don’t recall Luther ever writing anything against the palestinians so why is he considered anti-semite
      - Anonymous on January 21, 2018 · at 5:20 pm EST/EDT
        
        Don’t try to split hairs concerning the wrong usage of the term anti-semite. For clarification I want to point out that it’s used to label people criticizing Jews (regardless if unjustified or justified).
Anonymous on January 18, 2018 · at 10:57 am EST/EDT

Regarding the aggressive Israeli behavior patterns, and to some extent, the Russian ‘passivity’.
(and of course the USA and North Korea are another binary)

I just by chance finished watching a recent interview with Canada’s Jordan Peterson where he defends himself rather well against the archetypal English shrew and the usual feminist BS on ‘equality’ etc. At one point he actually tames the beast although it lasted only a few moments where the ballsy mask dropped.

What I found of interest (in this Russia context) was Peterson’s comments (and he expands more deeply in other published works) on the role of “disagreeableness” as a key character trait and indicator of higher performing success etc. This act of “disagreeableness” the Israeli entity has mastered. What the “agreeable” Russians perhaps need to consider is how they are displaying their agreeableness and more importantly how this characteristic is usually interpreted by the normally “disagreeable” types who naturally work under the assumptions that they are dominant in the barn yard.

In this regard the Russian may be ‘nicer’ but according to the ‘Atlas Shrugged’ raw in tooth and claw mentality (you might call it neocon as a political manifestation) those ‘pets’ that are more equal than others (in their own estimations) simply see it cognitively as “looser” and thus unjustified in claims of being whole. The wars these days (perhaps always) revolve largely around sovereignty and according to the neocon ‘disagreeable theory’ in action today, Russia and Syria (and any other soft ‘agreeable’ cultural types) should simply rollover and break up into segmented dependencies as dictated by the dominant and ‘exceptional’ winners.

I don’t agree with many of Peterson’s more political views but what he has to say here in response to the hostile interviewer (mainly about male-female dynamics) is highly relevant to a better understanding of “Why? … etc” — and I note his professional manner and focus on accurate use of language reminds one of Putin.

https://www.louderwithcrowder.com/watch-jordan-peterson-just-nuked-feminism-30-minutes/

Video at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMcjxSThD54
- Anonymous on January 18, 2018 · at 9:22 pm EST/EDT
  
  I watched the video and didn’t notice any special professional manners and his use of language definitely didn’t remind me of Putin. Actually I found him creepy. He and the host deserved each other.
  
  I randomly clicked another video to check him and I chose a lecture How Christianity Will Be Replaced With Something Bigger. Peterson is highly manipulative with historic data and context and is using cheap neuro-linguistic programming methods with a goal to make listener feel disgust just by hearing the word Russia. He throws around big names like Tolstoy, Dostoyevsky, Frankl and Solzhenitsyn to make an impression of a big intellectual but consistently deform the subject into Russia is Mordor because Russians were, are and will be low life thugs. I only managed to watch the first half an hour. In this half an hour he at least a couple of times says we are not done yet (with Russia). I rather wouldn’t want to know what the first part of a lecture has to do with its title How Christianity will be replaced with something bigger.
  
  What is worrisome is that Peterson is a professor at the University of Toronto.
michael d on January 18, 2018 · at 10:58 am EST/EDT

Great article.
2 small things.
1. Israel killing hundreds of muslims in the open is actually good in terms of concentrating ME nations on whom their enemy really is, and US voters on what is actually happening there.
2. US war war instead of jaw jaw is not so much a reflection of their (admittedly) poor diplomacy, as a recognition that it is the armed forces that lead and take decisions within the US administration and certainly not the State department.
War for Blair Moiuntain on January 18, 2018 · at 11:17 am EST/EDT

Christian Russia could very easily destroy Israel with a massive cruise missile strike….and when you throw in a few nukes…..The problem is escalation…..An escalation means a confrontation with the US Military coming to Israel’s defense=extinction of the Human Species…

Here is my question for the Saker:

Suppose the US does a crazy 3-5 thousand cruise missile attack on Iran…Iran launches a massive missile attack on Israel……Then suppose after this Israel launches a massive attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria…….

What happens next?….What are the scenarios?…I am going to assume that both the US and Israel each launch a mini-nuke…that’s two mini-nukes…at Iran…..What happens next?…..This I believe to be the most likely scenario with Jared Kushner and Steven Miller in charge of US policy towards Iran and Syria…..

Seriously…is Russia capable of putting one thousand Panstir missile trucks in Syria+one thousand S-300 hundreds?…How many older upgraded S-200 can Russia give Syria?….Buks?
- Englishman on January 18, 2018 · at 5:25 pm EST/EDT
  
  At the last count Hezbollah has at least sixty thousand missiles,people talk of the US coming to the aid of Israel if they were attacked,but don’t seem to think the Russians should help the Syrians when they are under Zionist attack,ANY foreign Jets flying over Syrria should come under attack,thats the bottom line.
Anonymous on January 18, 2018 · at 11:22 am EST/EDT

Syria is the biggest punch bag in the world’s history. There has never been a country that was bombed so many times on so many ways by so many parties. And I am only talking about recent times (remember operation orchard). And the saddest thing of all, Syria is absolutely incapable to strike back. They are even not allowed to say who bombed them.

I do not expect Russia “to protect” Syria, nor I think that Rusia has some sort of obligation to protect Syria. But, if Russia has come to Syria to fight Takfiri there and not in Caucasus, the same is true for anglozionist aircrafts: better fight them in Syria than in Russia. There were news, rummors, photos, about advanced AA defense system (S300) being supplied to Syria, but for what? Russia does not have to protect Syria, Russia has to provied equpiment andd training for Syrians to be able to protect themselves. And that is for Russia’s own interest. If I was president of some god-forsaken country and if I wanted safe sky, I better stick with USA (think Serbia).

This article explains lot of things but I am not happy with the answers. Not at all.
- Harry_Red on January 18, 2018 · at 2:14 pm EST/EDT
  
  “Syria is the biggest punch bag in the world’s history. There has never been a country that was bombed so many times on so many ways by so many parties”.
  
  This statement is not completely accurate.
  
  The US and coalition bombing of Iraq since 1991 till today can be considered the longest air war in history.
  
  In 1991, the United States unleashed a bombing campaign of staggering proportions against Iraq: 120,000 sorties were launched and 265,000 bombs dropped. From then on, the missions never stopped.
  
  From 1991 to 2003, the U.S. and its allies conducted a low-level air war to enforce no-fly zones over northern and southern Iraq, while attacking Iraq’s air defenses and other targets. In February 2003, the U.S. would, again, conduct a blistering “shock and awe” campaign and, by mid-April, Iraq had been subjected to 41,000 sorties and 27,000 bombs dropped.
  
  And the bombing continues till this day….including the bombing of Mosul and many other cities and locations.
- Win on January 18, 2018 · at 4:13 pm EST/EDT
  
  It certainly appears that Syria is the biggest punching bag. It must have been such a beautiful country including all its antiquities. But now some of the cities, towns and infrastructure have been blown to smithereens. And the people still live with the daily threat of bombing even on the outskirts of Damascus. Still better than living under ISIS? I must admit I also wondered about why the defense systems didn’t appear to work. But as I have only a small idea of where things are in the country, perhaps the systems just weren’t around. I suppose the reports we get are not always clear as I seem to recall some missiles had been shot down by the Syrian army. I really just want someone to give arrogant, bully boy Israel, a good hard slap, a la David and Goliath, for picking on Syria when it’s down. I follow South Front among others. Saker’s point that Russia is up skilling the Syrian army and its equipment is a good one. Teach a village etc. But yes. I do feel for Syria, with their brave soldiers, whose army is always overstretched – who seem to be doing a much better job now (thanks to its allies). But who appear to be gaining greater tracts of the country and freeing villages from oppressive rule. Yes it would have been easier to go with the US. But Assad obviously has higher moral standards than that. The price to pay for being on the side of good aye. Too high you think?
stepjo on January 18, 2018 · at 11:28 am EST/EDT

A magisterial analysis, thank you Saker!
Outlaw Historian on January 18, 2018 · at 11:35 am EST/EDT

Good, useful analysis, thanks!

IMO, Putin is trying to go well beyond the mere resurrecting of the USSR in tandem with his Chinese partners; their project having attracted support from most of Eurasia’s nations and enthused the imagination of their peoples. And despite what is stated, their is a big ideological difference between the Eurasian project and the Outlaw US Empire’s aim for Full Spectrum Dominance where only it wins at all other nations expense instead of the Win/Win aim of Russia and China. The path chosen by the Outlaw US Empire in 1989 was wrong as it set it on a losing course for the long haul; and as we continually see, its position globally is slowly eroding due to its own self-inflicted errors.
Edward on January 18, 2018 · at 11:40 am EST/EDT

I am not so sure Russia doesn’t have options if it wants to retaliate. This blog has written about the asymmetric warfare options that are available to Iran and it seems to me similar possibilities exist for Russia. At any rate, I agree that Russia is not obliged to do more and is in fact quietly acting. They have been very careful to avoid becoming stuck in a “quagmire” which is the American specialty.

“Russian Jewish immigrants to Occupied Palestines are the most ardent tormenters of the Palestinians”

This is a classic pattern with immigrant communities; they elevate their own status in the pecking order by stepping on the “untermenchen”. In the U.S. this is what happens between immigrants and African-Americans.
- Abu Iskandar on January 18, 2018 · at 3:59 pm EST/EDT
  
  “Russian Jewish immigrants to Occupied Palestines are the most ardent tormenters of the Palestinians”
  
  Also it is not true. First of all all Israelis are immigrants of some sort. Second the most ardent tormenters of the Palestinians are the “settlers”. They are equally bad whether they are of American, Russian, French, Polish or Moroccan descent.
  - Edward on January 19, 2018 · at 7:12 am EST/EDT
    
    Yes the settlers are the worst and all Israelis are immigrants. The Ashkenazis have the highest status in Israel. My point is more recent immigrants such as the Russians can try to gain more status/legitimacy by stepping on the Palestinians. This is a variant on flag-waving.
    - Katherine on January 19, 2018 · at 10:12 pm EST/EDT
      
      I think the phenomenon is called “more Catholic than the Pope.”
      
      Katherine
      - Edward on January 20, 2018 · at 3:13 am EST/EDT
        
        Yes– it reminds me of this scene from Blazing Saddles:
        
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=boO4RowROiw
Tom Welsh on January 18, 2018 · at 11:47 am EST/EDT

Perhaps the key idea that The Saker does not address is Benjamin Franklin’s aphorism that “We must indeed all hang together, or most assuredly we shall all hang separately”. When you think about it, that amounts to much the same as Martin Niemöller’s “First they came for the Communists”.

The USA and Israel seek continually to penetrate, subvert, harm and destroy other countries that do not submit to them unconditionally. Just because they are not attacking or threatening a given country right now, that does not mean the country in question can relax and kick back – fat, dumb and happy.

To me, it seems vital for all the nations in Asia to band together and stand back to back, as in a shield wall. The slightest weakness anywhere in a shield wall lets the enemy penetrate, and then everyone is vulnerable to attack from behind.

That said, I do not disagree at all with the article. I fervently hope that Russia and China are fully aware of, and agreed upon, the need to resist all attempts by the USA to weaken or harm them. But that does not mean every single probe must be complained about or met with symmetrical resistance.
mijj on January 18, 2018 · at 12:03 pm EST/EDT

We shouldn’t fall for the trap that endless western tv and movies set for us. Believing you have the moral duty to interfere in the affairs of another country due to your superior status is the propaganda basis of colonialism.
Anonymous on January 18, 2018 · at 12:39 pm EST/EDT

I believe that Russian can’t do anything about Israel Bombing Syria, and Russian can’t do anything about Ukraine shelling Donetsk.
While Israel is killing most Syrian, Ukraine is killing most Russian in Donetsk, the number is from 6,000 to 10,000 civilians, and this number is increasing day after day.
Why is Putin “allowing” Shelling of Donetsk?
From 6,000 to 10,000 civilians have been killed in Donbass since the military operation began,” the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) parliament speaker Andrei Purgin said.
https://sputniknews.com/europe/201505101021957446/
I believe the game is much bigger and Ukraine and Israel are involved in New World Order expansion.

The US will keep an indefinite military presence in Syria in order to remove President Bashar al-Assad from power, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson revealed in a speech at Stanford University on January 17.
“Assad’s regime is corrupt, and his methods of governance and economic development have increasingly excluded certain ethnic and religious groups,” the official said. “Such oppression cannot persist forever.”
“A total withdrawal of American personnel at this time would restore Assad and continue his brutal treatment of his own people,” he continued.

So the NWO interest in the Middle East are focused in Syria for now, and Israel, US, NATO are just players in a big game.
After partitioning Syria, controlling the Kurdistan, now it is clear that the days of Assad are numbered, and the Syria issue would be finalized quickly. This is part of region #7.
- JJ on January 18, 2018 · at 5:38 pm EST/EDT
  
  http://tass.com/politics/985731
  
  RUS foreign ministry today saying that Rada passing the new re integration law(which seems to be anything but)….is in fact preparation for a new war against Donbass….direct control of army is under co trol of Poroshenko(or maybe whoever is President ….hmmmm)…..so maybe the question re Rus defending Syria is going to soon be more relevant to Russia directly defending Donbass now/ soonish…although coupla weeks ago VVP said Donbass was well able to defend itself….maybe Rus might have to become much more overt in the near future…with continuing troop movements and ukraine saying supplies of “new”so called defensive weaponry will not have to be payed for by them….even if that maybe wishful thinking…would not take much from Russia supplying Donbass(remember big allegations as to exactly what is in those aid convoys to Donbass) for usa to follow up again with meme of”russian agression” then no charge for ” defensive” weapons as ukr is halfway to nato integration anyways….always an objective.
  
  Interesting that Syria is openly saying it will down Turkish planes….Turkey still presumably seeking definition from nato as to its intentions regarding so called or downgraded by Tillerson today apologetically or not ” border peace keeping force”….but interestingly enough Shoygu flew to Turkey yesterday for direct talks with Turkish military pretty sure I read….and Syria has not restated-.?-any intention regarding IDF intrusions(correct me if wrong), although IDF planes attacked from within Lebanese territory……usa-Israel-turkey are total goofballs together?????
  - Anonymous on January 19, 2018 · at 9:25 am EST/EDT
    
    I totally agree with you, that Russia could handle the East Ukraine issue in a different way, minimizing the Russian Innocent civilians Casualties.
    
    “A former Russian security forces officer, with a clipped grey moustache and a penchant for historical re-enactments, Strelkov led the takeover of the town of Slavyansk in April 2014, which presaged the armed conflict across the region.”
    They should stay there, and the front line should be in Slavyansk instead at Donetsk airport, on the road to Pisky and Advinka.
    
    The Russian elite was divided and this division exist and today.
    “Putin and his circle have recently taken steps which I believe will almost inevitably lead to the collapse of the system,” Strelkov said. “We don’t know yet how, and we don’t know when, but we are certain it will collapse, and more likely sooner than later.”
    So still there are internal problems with Russian elite, with NATIONAL and INTERNATIONAL Consequences.
    Source at:
    Igor Strelkov, Russian ‘military hero’ of the war in Ukraine, steps out of the shadows to fire salvo at president Putin and predict upheaval in Russia
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/05/russias-valiant-hero-in-ukraine-turns-his-fire-on-vladimir-putin.
    
    I believe the Russian elite isn’t ready yet for bold decision, and a war in 2 fronts it is out of Question.
    My question is:
    Is this Rada, “the new re integration law”, a bold movement of the Russian elite, in the right direction, or just a Cookie before Election?
    Time will tell the truth.
    - Larchmonter445 on January 19, 2018 · at 11:57 am EST/EDT
      
      Strelkov tried to sucker the RF into a war in Ukraine in 2014.
      That war would have sanctioned the RF into a depression, not just the recession it took two years to climb out of.
      It would have meant RF would not have saved Syria. (Think about that.)
      
      Strelkov had a total disaster of a war plan. Motorola saved his asshole retreat. Several guys heroically died covering Strelkov’s retreat.
      
      It left Donetsk unable to effectively fight without massive North Wind assistance.
      
      You may love Strelkov. He was an agent of death brought upon Donbass.
      No one there talks about him any longer.
      
      The heroics of the war is mostly post-Strelkov. The victories all are post Strelkov.
      
      The absence of geopolitical thought shows what a limited military man he was.
      A clipboard corporal mentality, whipped to froth with dreams of White Russia ascendance.
      
      He did one thing, it has been told to me by sources that know, that was good.
      He sent a lot of fighters to Russia to be trained. I suspect this was Russian military doing it, but he gets credit for it.
      
      Motorola and Spartak Battalion saved Strelkov. They were the heroes of the retreat.
      And the retreat is his only claim to fame.
      
      Sort of like bragging that Custer had a great day on the Greasy Grass of Little Bighorn.
Den Lille Abe on January 18, 2018 · at 12:39 pm EST/EDT

Saker

I think this was a good read. I further think it should be compulsory reading for many on this forum, as there is a lot of blood thirst going around. That you have written it for the UNZ, gave me a giggle, some readers there will choke.
We all love to speculate what president Putin does next, I bet very, very few people fully knows his planning and thinking.
One point you did not touch, is that there is a considerable amount of Jews that immigrated from USSR or Russia and the general feelings to Russia today are pretty warm, further more there has been co-operation between Russia and Israel on non specified military projects
lindsay on January 18, 2018 · at 12:48 pm EST/EDT

Thank you for the gloss on “monkey with a grenade” – worth screeds of commentary by anyone else..

Indeed, thank you for the whole article – likewise.

(Although, what happened to all the typos? I only noticed one. I feel bereft, somehow.)
Paul Greenwood on January 18, 2018 · at 1:13 pm EST/EDT

You choose your battleground and timing rather than let your opponent choose it for you. As Napoleon put it: “recoiler pour mieux sauter”
A123 on January 18, 2018 · at 1:22 pm EST/EDT

I think Saker is pretty close in this comment:

Question #1: but aren’t Syria, Iran and Hezbollah Russian allies?

Yes and no. Objectively – yes. Formally – no. What this means is that while these three entities do have some common objectives, they are also independent and they all have some objectives not shared by others.

Everyone has a common objective, getting rid of ISIS. However post-ISIS, those objectives radically diverge. Russia and Syria want to create a stable peace in the region. Iran and its proxies want to provoke conflict on Syria’s southern border.

Given this difference in objectives, it is logical for Russia to remain uninvolved as Israel destroys Iranian/Hezbollah missile depots. Once Iran realizes it cannot use southern Syria for offensive purposes, there is a good chance they will leave the area, allowing Syria and Russia to achieve their strategic objectives. Effectively, Putin is using Israel to get what he wants.
_____

As a side issue, it is in Russia’s interest to minimize use of the S-400 platform. Every use allows adversaries to obtain intelligence on system performance.

Also, the ordinance is quite expensive, possibly $500K per launch. And, there are a limited number of missiles available. Once consumed, new ones have to be flown or shipped in from Russia.
- A123 on January 18, 2018 · at 2:38 pm EST/EDT
  
  Sorry. I either misplaced the “cite” tag, or it did not work as expected. The second paragraph is also part of the quote from the above article. It should look like this.
  
  Yes and no. Objectively – yes. Formally – no. What this means is that while these three entities do have some common objectives, they are also independent and they all have some objectives not shared by others.
  
  My comments begin with “Everyone…”
John C Durham on January 18, 2018 · at 1:34 pm EST/EDT

Since February 22, 2014 I have been paying close attention to the military and economic policy of Russia and China. It is obvious that both have come to similar conclusions of the founders of the American Republic and later leaders of the Republic like Lincoln (who leveraged the British Empire’s fall with American rail technology into transcontinental systems in Russia, a German network to all of Europe and to Persia).

China is doing everything possible to finance, provide expertise and actual construction to upgrade the Earth’s national infrastructure improving the human condition generally. Russia is protecting itself by actually inserting itself in Syria only as necessary and financing their amazing S400/500 defensive systems to Turkey, Iran and other independent minded nations most likely to soon become targets of Wall Street and London.

Using this strategy every nation on Earth is presented the option of Liberty if it follows through building up its nation’s most essential elements and showing the will to actually protect themselves. Contrast that with actions of American and British banking and industrial morons. It should be obvious how this is all going to turn out and Russia in time will have proved itself to have been the hope of the World and China acting more Christian than most of those so called Christians that came before.
Dr. NG Maroudas on January 18, 2018 · at 1:42 pm EST/EDT

Significantly, President Putin did not step in to help Syria until 2013, by which time it was obvious that Dr.Assad had the support of his people, and that the Syrian Army and Allieswere getting the upper hand over Daesh — if only some great power would keep NATZO off their backs. That was when Russia stepped in.

At school our Careers Master told us, “God helps those who help themselves; and God help those who don’t”.
stan on January 18, 2018 · at 1:43 pm EST/EDT

“Russia probably could stop one or a few Israeli attacks, but if the Israelis decided to engage in a sustained air campaign against targets in Syria there is nothing the Russians could do short of going to war with Israel. ”

You realize this is what many of these people want — a war between Russia and Israel. The people most obsessed with Israel cannot be trusted. I’ve even heard them try to start a cheer: “Putin nuke Israel.” These are members of American Intel, mind you, that have received approval on this site in the past.

Give a man a fish, you feed him for a day. Teach him to fish, he’ll feed himself for a lifetime.

Ideally, Russia will sign a whole load of weapons deals, and weapons development deals, and set up advanced training programs in all of the countries threatened by the empire. Make threats consequential! Imagine if Libya had had advanced air defense, and competent operators when NATO came in to help people die. You’d have a lot of well fed fish.
- vot tak on January 18, 2018 · at 6:50 pm EST/EDT
  
  “Give a man a fish, you feed him for a day. Teach him to fish, he’ll feed himself for a lifetime.”
  
  Odd coincidence, I heard a dj on one of those pindo “classic rock” faux rok clear channel radio stations play around with that govno line today. Don’t know the context which inspired the dj, I wasn’t paying attention, but thought it strange he mentioned it.
- Anonymous on January 19, 2018 · at 8:45 am EST/EDT
  
  Better than making weapons deals would be to disarm all sides, so that they would’ve resort to fists or stones.
Olaf on January 18, 2018 · at 1:53 pm EST/EDT

Israelis de facto control US.

Can you provide more evidence, documents facts on the matter?
- Dr N.G. Maroudas on January 19, 2018 · at 3:17 am EST/EDT
  
  Read the society news: Clinton crime family marries into Rothschild crime syndicate Goldman Sachs. Read who visits Israeli occupied Syria from Genie Energy to steal Syria’s Golan oil: Lord Rothschild accompanied by former VP Dick Cheney chief US conspirator of the Mossad 911 terrorist atrocity against the people of the USA. Read about US ship Vincennes, another terrorist atrocity against the USA which successive US regimes refuse to investigate. the .Look at the US visits of Natan Yahoo, the only foreigner ever to get two standing ovations from the combined House of Congress and Senate, when he came to tell them, Iran Bomb, bomb, bomb. Look at US policy against Iran now. At US policy against Iraq, Syria, Lebanon: destroying, destabilizing, weakening and/or bribing any and all possible rivals to Israel. Etc, etc.
Durruti on January 18, 2018 · at 1:54 pm EST/EDT

The Best Face:

Very accomplished analysis from the Saker. What I add below, is not a criticism, or even a critique of Saker, or of the Commenters, (who overwhelmingly agree with the Saker). It is merely my own analysis.

I offer some truisms (Truths before God and History).

We are talking about Russia:

1. Russia, as with all Nations, is better off, healthier, with all its people (its Nation), United. This first Truth is placed here by an American Patriot, (one who wishes and struggles for the best for his country). Russia, America, China, Palestine, France, All, deserve to be prosperous Democratic Republics, of one hue or other.
More or less religious, more or less Monarchial, all with a free and well armed citizenry. Citizens must be better armed than their governments.

2. There are 40 million Russians dispersed in the Zionist NATO occupied Ukraine. Kiev is the birthplace of Russia.

3. The Baltic Principalities (Estonia, Latvia, and, Lithuania), have a citizenry approximately 50% Russian. The Imperialists are sending troops with advanced arms into Estonia. If these troops are armed with nukes, they do not need delivery vehicles (planes, rockets, or even a slingshot) to shut down Northwest Russia. All they need to do is explode a large nuclear device from the Northwest portion of Estonia, and all Russia, up to St Petersburg (Russia’s equivalent to New York City), will be a radioactive ruin.

Location, location, location, – is an ever vital factor in Global Military power. Estonia, cannot be permitted to become a Nuclear, (or even a conventional military platform) for the New World Order’s Oligarchs. Russian leaders, and its citizens, are asleep. They cannot permit a foreign military presence in the Baltics, (or Finland), and maintain their national independence.

They must eventually close down their links to the Zionist Banking system; can they do less for their own military survival than to secure their borders?

4. Kazakhstan (look at the map), is vital for Russian survival. Its major spoken language is Russian. There is an American military base located within. Hell!!!

Love for my own Country, my Nation of birth and residence, is part of the view (proclaimed by the United Nations – along the East River), that extolls the Sovereignty of all its member nations, and that the unity of happy sovereign Nations is the key to world peace and prosperity.

Russia must not remain in pieces.

And!

We Americans must regain our Sovereignty, taken from us on November 22, 1963, along with our last Constitutional President, John Fitzgerald Kennedy.

We Americans will Restore Our Republic, as part of our Responsibility [did I mention Our Responsibility?] that We Owe to ourselves and the World. We must take our boots and the boots of our Zionist Oligarch Masters off the necks of the rest of the peoples of our planet. We must disperse our Knesset in Washington DC, and restore our Congress; but I digress.

Saker; thanks for being Saker. Thanks for This Forum.

Durruti
David Hollander on January 18, 2018 · at 2:10 pm EST/EDT

The article is very well argued. President Putin and Russia have managed the situation in Syria very well to this point. However, when the decision was made for the Russians to intervene in Syria it was never clear that the problem of the end game was sufficiently resolved. It was never possible to base expectations on simply fighting terrorism. ISIS, SDF etc. are not independent players but are supported by the coalition of Israel, the US, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. There was always and still is the risk of direct conflict between the Russian contingent in Syria and the forces of these other players. As yet, it is unclear how this will be resolved. I agree that it is not prudent for the Russians to attempt to directly against Israel at this point. However, there must be limits. If the Israelis launch a serious attempt to assassinate Assad it would seem the Russians would have to respond in some way. If the current Syrian government is removed the entire future of Russian presence in Syria would be in doubt.
bored muslim on January 18, 2018 · at 2:40 pm EST/EDT

Nice article Saker.

But slow down a bit on ‘ What have the Arabs/Muslims done for Russia, that Russia owes them.? Most of the Arab/Islamic countries have been subjected to usually U.S. imposed dictatorships, meddling, subversion, vassalage, etc. Take Egypt for Example. Geopolitically impotent and reliant on 3 billion of U.S. aid for towing the imperial line. Egypt is , and should be the ‘heart’ of the Muslim world with its history, scholarship ( Al – Azhar University, the oldest in the world, btw). Arab governments don’t represent the true mainstream(vast majority) current of the Arab/Muslim street. We are watching, carefully whats happening with Saudi collusion with Israel, and lovemaking with the U.S…bit”.

Except for perhaps Iran and Chechnya ( great models for the Islamic world should follow), the vast majority of the Arab/Muslim people are looking up to Iran , Hezbollah, Syria, Iraqi, Afghani, Yemeni resistance to kneel, and submit to the Jewish global agenda. We admire them, all 1.6 billion of us, except for maybe 100 million who are essentially salafi, Wahhabi, takfirist, mentally ill, young and impressionable( awkward youth who are all together mentally balanced), chances are we are the same as Russia’s own Muslims and the Muslims nations peoples are its peripheral.

Lets go back a bit. Way back. . At the onset of the 7th century, there appeared a tribe of people, with many sub-tribes who formed , by incessant war, terror, banditry etc. a Kingdom of Khazaria smack in the middle of Slavic Orthodox Russians(called Russ then). Anyway these new Khazarians adapted, simultaneously the Babylonian Talmud Jewry and the wars continued to rage with all the Kingdoms neighbors, the ‘Russ’ saw many atrocities committed on them, their towns, raided and occupied (somethings never change, I guess…see Palestine today) their lands and being very barbaric and racist supremacists, as the Talmud taught them.

When the Caliphate of the Muslim world was in Baghdad, at the time, heard of this barbarity, he sent an army to intervene and essentially stop the Khazars. First expedition was a very short success, the incessant banditry and racist barbarism by the Khazars continued when the Arab armies were called elsewhere. And the Khazars promised to keep the peace. So again an army was sent, I’m not sure, if by this time the Caliphate was in Damascus or Baghdad, but anyways the Khazars were defeated and promises to not further attack the Slavic Orthodox, armies went home. This continued on for centuries, until that is the Mongols arrived and everything changed. The Mongols were a non-religious people who attacked and conquered the known Islamic Caliphate of Baghdad, Syria until the were stopped at the Battle of Ain-Jalut, by the general of generals, Baibars.

Soon large armies of Mongols horde converted to Islam. The most powerful Mongol army , The Golden Horde headed north-west into Asia after destroying renegade Mongol armies and punishing by death of the Khan who sacked, and destroyed Baghdad, a Muslim city, personally.

As the Golden Horde met up with the Slavic Russ Orthodox, good relations emerged and the Mongol Khan, Berke Khan admired Christianity and soon the Moscovite princes and the Golden Horde formed a formidable army (as the Golden Horde don’t play around), Together they marched and utterly swept aside the Khazar’s away and there went the Kingdom of Khazaria, one thousand years ago. Some stayed, scattered around Russia in small numbers, others headed west into Eastern Europe, Western Europe and the the U.S.

So my point to all this is, that we saved the Slavic Russian Orthodox people from oppression of the worst type, starting a millennium ago. Since Catherine the Great, whose own personal royal guard were Muslims, we have been brothers.

Muslims (except for the tyrannical Ottomans, but that’s another story) have fought in perhaps all of Russia’s military campaigns since Peter the Great.

In the Great Patriotic War, WW2, when German forces were at Moscow’s suburbs, and Zhukov finally launched a great counteroffensive that basically saved Moscow but even Russia from disaster was averted, where do you think most, if not all of the troops involved were not but Soviet Muslims quickly trained in (Russia at the time has a great railway network), yes, Muslim infantry from the far East were brought in just in the nick of time. The Germans never faced this type of Russian fighting ferocity before, and it was a rout, with entire armored divisions abandoned and or destroyed. At the Battle of Stalingrad, both Muslim and Orthodox soldiers took very heavy casualties but eventually wore out the Germans. Again, there are many archived letters of German fighters describing the almost maddening ferocity of the the ‘new kind of Eastern looking’ Russian fighters.

In 2014, when the situation in the Donbass was critical, pretty much banditry (some things never change) and oppression led by the same tribe, Khazars (Ukraininn style) was oppressing the good, hardworking people of the Donbass, Mr. Khadyrov, the Muslim leader of the Russian Republic of Chechnya made a plea on behalf of his Orthodox Slavic brothers, and off his shock-troops went, by the thousands, it has been reported that the tarained, equipped and fought the Ukrainian army and eventually sent it reeling and badly damaged. The Battle of Donetsk Airport Chechen slaughter of whole battalions of Ukrainian soldiers, of course I also give full credit to the Donbass peoples militias, but the Battle of Dabaltsevo was also outflanking done by these highly trained and mobile Chechens. Incidentally, they saw action in Syria just recently too.

So my point is, is we Muslims, and Orthodox Slavic Russians are brothers and sisters , facing the same enemy and threats.

As Salam Wa Alem.
- Ann on January 19, 2018 · at 3:47 am EST/EDT
  
  awesome comment bored Muslim – Goethe wrote that cool book West East Divan – and he says in there that the Arabs are really ferocious fighters…I’ll never forget that. I guess all of Germany was appalled at the treatment that the Europeans were dishing out to the rest of the world….and that’s why Goethe was writing about Muslims…I know Novalis was also re feeling strong connections with the Mohammedans –
  
  And they are ferocious – I’m so proud every time the Houthis fire a missile and hit a Saudi vehicle – ship or plane – I feel so proud – and I’ve been watching the Palestinian teenager Ahed Tamimi and her story too – what an angel she is – an avenging angel – all those young people in Palestine are SUCH beauties – so young – gone already back to Allah – that is true jihad.
- Another bored Muslim on January 19, 2018 · at 7:50 am EST/EDT
  
  Nice read brother!
- Anonymous on January 19, 2018 · at 8:41 am EST/EDT
  
  But slow down a bit on ‘ What have the Arabs/Muslims done for Russia, that Russia owes them.?
  
  Muslims, be it Arabs or non-Arabs should not expect a foreign power to come and rescue them, but should put their faith in God alone. The condition of Muslims today is partially due to their own doings.
  Indeed, Allah will not change the condition of a people until they change what is in themselves.
  
  Egypt is , and should be the ‘heart’ of the Muslim world with its history, scholarship ( Al – Azhar University, the oldest in the world, btw)
  
  I agree with you, but al-Azhar, just like almost all of the Islamic seminaries has stagnated. Since past 500 years, Muslims haven’t done any independent reasoning, a key to dynamism in Islam. Movements like Tabligh jammat and the ideology of Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab have contributed to the rot.
  The separation of political, economic and social systems from religion and incorporating them into secular education has resulted in Muslims thinking that religion is just reading religious scriptures and offering prayers, this is also true for people other religions.
  Muslims are forbidden to mix politics, economics and social system with religion in this age new, least they start creating another ‘ISIS’, ‘ISIL’ or whatever fancy name you would like to give.
  I don’t know about the young Arab muslims, but many non-Arab muslims aren’t inclined to Islam to the same degree as were generations in the past, this is also true for young people of other faiths.
  
  Except for perhaps Iran and Chechnya ( great models for the Islamic world should follow)
  
  I think that you admire them because of their recent victories against takfiris, but they really aren’t good models to follow, infact no muslim country is.
  
  the vast majority of the Arab/Muslim people are looking up to Iran , Hezbollah, Syria, Iraqi, Afghani, Yemeni resistance
  
  Most of the Muslim world is blissfully unaware of what is going on around the world. Apart from Arab muslims and shia muslims, most of other muslims will start scratching their heads when you ask them what Hizbullah is.
  
  So my point is, is we Muslims, and Orthodox Slavic Russians are brothers and sisters , facing the same enemy and threats.
  
  Relations between nations change with time, Muslims and Jews once used to be closest in faith and the muslims gave refuge to the Jews escaping oppression and both the people had their golden ages during the muslim rule. Look at them today, both are each other’s throats.
  
  But I appreciate the initiative of peacemakers who are trying to bring people of different faith together against a common enemy.
  Blessed are the peacemakers, for they will be called children of God.
- Anonymous on January 20, 2018 · at 6:09 am EST/EDT
  
  The Khazar state was destroyed between 965 and 969, by the Kievan Rus’ ruler Sviatoslav I of Kiev.
  “In 965, as the Qağanate was struggling against the victorious campaign of the Rus’ prince Sviatoslav, the Islamic historian Ibn al-Athîr mentions that Khazaria, attacked by the Oğuz, sought help from Khwarezm, but their appeal was rejected because they were regarded as ‘infidels’ (al-kuffâr:pagans). Save for the king, the Khazarians are said to have converted to Islam in order to secure an alliance, and the Turks were, with Khwarezm’s military assistance repelled. It was this that, according to Ibn al-Athîr, led the Jewish king of Khazar to convert to Islam”.
  So, it is rather that the remnants of the Khazars’ were easily absorbed into the Golden Horde.
  Anyhow, the Golden Horde did not convert to Islam until the beginning of the14th century.
Gary S on January 18, 2018 · at 2:58 pm EST/EDT

Well that was an interesting article. What was the conclusion–nobody can do anything about the ashkenazi because he has stolen the nuclear technology from Germany [Manhattan Project] and then his enabler the US [Pollard]–and is capable of destroying the planet [Sampson Option]. And so, while the tiny criminal enclave slices up the world around him with a thousand cuts [yes, it’s ultimately terminal]–the best thing for the rest of us to do is remain quiet.
I will offer three other alternative theories to the Saker’s two: 1) Putin is waiting for the Zionists to bleed-out the vitality of the US– a strategy I am sure his small but powerful cadre of Russian Zionists approve of. 2) As with Orwell’s prescient 1984–the three superstates are in collusion with the primary function of war to reduce the prosperity of the state’s populace [the model of scarcity] to control their respective populations. 3) Putin is nothing more than a pussy–like the rest of the world “leaders” and is hoping that the 800 pound motza ball will allow him to ride off into the sun set–when it is time for him to exit the stage.
If I had to guess–option number 2–the one that unities the 1% across the globe–and perhaps it’s the knowledge of this option that Trump is holding over the elite’s heads–which is why they won’t touch him: Everyone is target–and everyone in a position of power is implicated. Rage, rage before the dying of the light…
- Rob from Canada on January 18, 2018 · at 6:18 pm EST/EDT
  
  Actually, the conclusion of the article is that there are too many opinionated buttheads who don’t know jackshit about military matters, writing dumb articles and comments.
Norwegian. on January 18, 2018 · at 3:11 pm EST/EDT

In my opinion an exellent analysis. I read it while thinking this man Saker must have a godgiven ability to read Vladimir Putins mind and way of thinking. :-)

And the the basis of the analysis as I see it is the art of judo: how a weak man overcomes a stronger man using the stronger mans strength to his own advantage.
Zabo on January 18, 2018 · at 3:12 pm EST/EDT

Merci Saker pour cette excellente mise au point ! C’est l’illustration de la devise des rois de France à propos de la guerre : “Ultima ratio regum” : le dernier argument des rois quand toutes les autres options ont été essayées.
Ils ne l’ont peut-être pas toujours respectée, mais c’était dans leurs principes. C’est la profonde sagesse des gouvernants responsables devant Dieu et devant leurs peuples, loin des mégalomanies et autres folies actuelles.

Mod. Note: Thank you Saker for this excellent focus! This is the illustration of the motto of the kings of France about the war: “Ultima ratio regum”: (a resort to arms) the last argument of kings when all other options have been tried.
They may not have always respected it, but it was in their principles. It is the profound wisdom of the responsible rulers before God and their peoples, far from megalomania and other current folly.
Nasser on January 18, 2018 · at 3:52 pm EST/EDT

Thank you for writing the article Saker. I too tire of the “entitled” a-holes, especially present in the Middle East, who demand so much of others without any reciprocity whatsoever.

I am firmly of the opinion that Russia would already be doing plenty by helping Syria and Iran “rearm”. This doesn’t occur overnight but in due course it would go a long way in dealing with Israeli and Saudi belligerence but not necessarily US belligerence.
дулебг on January 18, 2018 · at 5:12 pm EST/EDT

I believe that Russia has an obligation to make a Serbian people free of Western colonizers. We had a 10-year proxy-wars during 90-ths, during whom we earned a time for Russia to wake up from it’s democratic dream. Of course – we were not the only ones, there were also Armenians and the others. Now we are captured and constantly punished by the West in last 30 years, for giving to Russia a time to rise up.

As we did something similar in 1941, and who knows what in 1914 – I think that Russia should better help us to become free and prepare us for the next challenge.
B.F. on January 18, 2018 · at 5:13 pm EST/EDT

Excellent article as always from The Saker. However, when it comes to Russian AA missile systems in Syria, I think they are slightly more numerous than presented in the article. Russia has given Syria the S-300 missile system, and back in 2016 Syria did use it to shoot down one Israeli F-16, which blew up in the sky. The two Russian bases in Syria are supported by the S-300, S-400 and the Pantzir AA missile system. Personally I am not too sure that Israel would ever dare use it’s entire Air Force against those two Russian bases, no matter what kind of need would arise, as it would sustain casualties, which I don’t think it can afford, especially if it has aspirations of attacking Iran.

I am familiar with periodic Israeli Air Force attacks against Syria. However, these attacks were conducted with a minimal number of aircraft, which I always interpreted as provocations, the Israelis hoping Russians would attack. They did not, leaving that to the Syrian military. Last year Israel launched an attack, using a mixture of aircraft. The Syrians fired an old S-200 missile against them, damaging a new Israeli F-35, the first time this type of aircraft was hit. Israel issued a statement saying the F-35 collided with a bird (?), which damaged the plane. Hmmm.

Yes, The Saker is indeed correct to state that Putin is wise, not easily falling for provocations. However, he does take precautions. When the Turks shot down that SU-24, Putin sent to Syria the S-400 missile system. I don’t think the Israelis would be too fond of attacking it, no matter how many aircraft they used.
Arab Adighe on January 18, 2018 · at 5:15 pm EST/EDT

Amin! We cannot repeat it enough: only the Islamic Republic of Iran (plus tiny forces such as Hezbollah) has a structuring project and/or mindset for the arab-muslim region, why would Russia fight for destructuring arabs and muslims?

But at the same time, it is in Russia’s interest to stop or reduce the US-Zionist “creative chaos” on its southern borders. Arabs and Muslims elites, aka the “mad house”, have to wake up from their role of zomie elites, compradore bourgeoisies of the Empire and zionists. Then, maybe then, Moscow, if it keep controlling its own anti-sovereignty elites, could be more invested, involved on all fronts.

Inch’Allah…
Uncle Bob 1 on January 18, 2018 · at 5:18 pm EST/EDT

Does Russia have a “moral” responsibility there? Or even a “self-protection” responsibility to help Syria and the Palestinians? Those are both good questions.

To take them one by one. The majority of the zionist invaders leadership and probably a quarter of their Jewish population have and had roots that trance to Russia.Either to the Russian Empire or modern Russia.Does that give Russia some responsibility for the crimes committed by their ex and in some cases only barely ex co-nationals? The same question could be asked about the American Jewish settlers and co-nationals that are some of the most vile of the settler class on Palestinian land today.And the dual-citizens that use their power in the US to serve Israel.To both,I would argue yes it does give some responsibility in both cases.

As to the second question.I remember Putin saying he went into Syria because anti-Russian jihadis from Russia were there.And that defeating them was important to protect Russia from there attacks.Well,it could easily be said that the zionists from Russia in Israel are enemies of Russia’s.They hate Russia and conspire with the US to destroy Russia.They helped stir the Chechen wars.Helped undermine Ukraine,to use the Ukrainians against Russia.And both inside and outside Russia are some of the most anti-Russian elements in league with West to destroy Russia.So I could argue that combating their influence serves Russia for self-protection.

The really hard question is what can be done.And that is by far the one without a clear answer.But make no mistake,having a powerful Israel plotting to use the worldwide zionist movement against Russia.Is no less a danger for Russia than the jihadis or the US is.They have similar aims,and work together in alliance to accomplish them.
- B.F. on January 18, 2018 · at 5:28 pm EST/EDT
  
  Russia having responsibility for what Zionists, who originate from Russia, did in Palestine ? Russia does not have any responsibility, because these Zionists are not Russians and never thought of themselves as being Russian. They proved this by murdering czar Nicholas and his entire family.
  - Uncle Bob 1 on January 18, 2018 · at 7:07 pm EST/EDT
    
    One could use your same argument about the zionist Jews that are in or came from the US too. But it wouldn’t be received with any more credibility than this one. If people originate from your country you bare some responsibility for them,rather you like it or not.I don’t think the thousands of European (especially French and British) jihadis that joined ISIS by not being Europeans by ethnicity relieves those countries of the responsibility for allowing their citizens the ability to commit those crimes.
    - Anonymous on January 19, 2018 · at 9:31 am EST/EDT
      
      Some Europeans who joined the jihadis had migrant roots, whilst others didn’t (converts). Does a country or tribe bear responsibility if someone of them leaves them and commits crimes in far away location? In my opinion those countries / tribes aren’t responsible at all. With regard to the jihadis it’s a different case, since there’s the possibility that they’ve been mercenaries (maybe even useful idiots used for mercenary tasks).
- vot tak on January 18, 2018 · at 7:36 pm EST/EDT
  
  “Does Russia have a “moral” responsibility there?…yada, yada yada…To both,I would argue yes it does give some responsibility in both cases.”
  
  I was curious how ub1 would try to spin it to put blame on Russia. Total nonsense argument, the sole intent of which is to backhandedly bash Russia. This is sort of thing is what I meant above:
  
  /why-is-putin-allowing-israel-to-bomb-syria/#comment-477821
  - Uncle Bob 1 on January 18, 2018 · at 8:57 pm EST/EDT
    
    I figured out a long time ago that being an American,and a white man.Put me on your dislike list automatically.But your thinking you know my intentions is just a result of your hate.How about you stop thinking you are able to read people’s minds.You are horrible at it.
    - vot tak on January 18, 2018 · at 9:23 pm EST/EDT
      
      “I figured out a long time ago that being an American,and a white man.Put me on your dislike list automatically.But your thinking you know my intentions is just a result of your hate.How about you stop thinking you are able to read people’s minds.You are horrible at it.”
      
      A rather pathetic attempt at deflection. It doesn’t help your original absurd argument blaming Russia for israeli actions,either. In fact, it rather shows you know your assertions we’re bogus.
      - Ann on January 19, 2018 · at 3:37 am EST/EDT
        
        VT – I think Uncle Bob is sad about the state of the world, and he does wish that there was a strong man in the room to do away with evil….but he’s not a troll on Saker’s – he’s one of our friends here at Saker’s – we all have our temperaments – for good and bad…now I’m starting to sounds like an auntie
Harry_Red on January 18, 2018 · at 5:37 pm EST/EDT

Dear Saker,

This was a wonderfully written article addressing the Russian stance and strategic posture on Israeli aggression against Syria.

However, you did not directly answer the question you asked (maybe rhetorically) in your article:

“Where do the Arab and Muslims of the Middle-East get this sense of entitlement which tells them that a faraway country which struggles with plenty of political, economic and military problems of its own has to do more than the immediate neighbors of Syria do?!”

As an Arab Muslim, I believe I have enough insight and self-reflection to attempt to answer this very important question. I can also imagine the number of emails from Arabs and Muslims you are receiving since you have become an authority on the subject of the Anglo-Zionist Empire and its military and geo-strategic role it is playing in the Middle-East.

Let me rephrase your question to these several questions:

Why do Muslims, but more specifically Arabs believe they deserve to be saved by outside powers while doing nothing to unite or help one another to better their situation ?
Why are they always looking for saviors from outside their region ?
Why do they blame everyone else for their problems and never criticize themselves ?

Why don’t North Koreans blame Europeans or Russians for their current state of affairs ?
Why don’t the people of Donbass blame China for not helping them out or putting pressure on the Europeans and Americans?

This problem is much more presestint in Arabs than in Non-Arab Muslims to be honest. So I will focus on them.

The Arab political situation has basically infected the psyche of the Arab populations.

Arabs as an entire region show many problems like:
– They are in a state of denial
– Helplessness, hopelessness, depression, PTSD, anxiety, lack of self-worth
– Artificially try to boost their ego.
– Many of them actually blame the Soviet Union for not defeating Israel in past wars, and believe that Russia is just like the Soviet Union.

– There is no self-reflection, they have been taught and convinced that everything that happens to them is the fault of others and they cannot change anything…..its a very destructive and nihilistic way of thinking and believing.

There entire psychology and thought process further contradicts their religion, which clearly preaches hope, struggle, standing up for what is right and just……so you get a people who are almost schizophrenic, and who have multiple personality disorders as a population.

This is also topped off by corruption, dictatorship, extremism, a very young population…..which makes for a very dangerous setting in the Middle-East.

These were some random ideas I had. But I could write an entire PhD on the Arab state of mind and their self-victimization and blaming others…….These are characteristics are of people who are not grown up but are still children.
- Anonymous on January 20, 2018 · at 11:10 pm EST/EDT
  
  Don’t you think that the parlous state of Muslim ” helplessness, hopelessness, depression, PTSD, anxiety, lack of self-worth” has precisely something (actually all) to do with their religion? That things go in a different (quite opposite) direction than their Quran assures them that they must go? That the world does not revolve around them? That the transitory construction on the sand that was the Caliphate is gone forever and would never be revived?
  - Harry_Red on January 21, 2018 · at 10:13 am EST/EDT
    
    You asked a very logical question:
    
    Don’t you think that the parlous state of Muslim ” helplessness, hopelessness, depression, PTSD, anxiety, lack of self-worth” has precisely something (actually all) to do with their religion?
    
    No, because if you actually studied Islam, you will know that Islam teaches hope, mercy, compassion for others (whether Muslims or non-Muslims), about patience, perseverance, justice, helping the poor and needy. It teaches about correct conduct in money and business (compared to the current banking system), it teaches about correct conduct in marriage, and family life (compared to the current state of affairs around the world), it teaches about how to treat orphans and not to abuse them (physically or mentally), it teaches even about psychological problems and how to deal with them.
    
    This sea of knowledge which is contained inside Islam (Quran and the Hadith) is not being followed by many Arabs and Muslims, let alone their rulers and leaders.
    
    Can you image if Europe and the US would start disregarding the foundations of their democratic principles ?
    …..which ironically they are starting to, aren’t they ;-)
    
    What would happen to Europeans and Americans if they’re leaders (followed by their societies) would slowly start abandoning these principles ?? …….I can assure you, they would not end up in a good place, let alone if you look at the history and massacres of WWI en WWII.
    
    Islam did not spread from Morocco to Indonesia, and Tanzania to Kazakhstan….by the sword. If anyone attempted to spread Islam like ISIS or al-Qaeda, Islam would have been wiped out long ago, just like ISIS and al-Qaeda are being wiped out.
    
    Can you imagine if the Arabs would have attempted to convert Indonesians, by using Dutch or Japanese methods in brutal occupation…..Arabs and Muslims would have been the most hated people in the history of Indonesia. Arabs spread Islam by commerce, technology and knowledge.
    
    Arabs, mainly sand dwelling tribal Bedouins were nothing prior to Islam….Islam made them prosperous, advanced, gave them knowledge and wealth.
    
    And now these Arabs have completely abandoned these principals that made them successful…..They say that these principles are theirs and that they should follow it, but they follow nothing of it……just like the West are slowly abandoning their principles …….
    
    …..people who abandon their own principles live like schizophrenics with multiple personality disorders.
    
    By the way, having said all this about Arabs (and Muslims), we do not deny the disastrous and evil effects of the Western-Zionist Empire’s occupation of the Arabic and Muslim lands from Morocco to Indonesia ;-).
    
    The West absolutely without a doubt has had a hand in the subduing and corrupting many of these Islamic regions of the world. Let alone supporting and funding unrest and extremist groups.
    - Anonymous on January 21, 2018 · at 5:27 pm EST/EDT
      
      You made some interesting point by mentioning the banking system and especially the view of Islam regarding marriage. Islam and Christianity aren’t too far apart with regard to marriage. Whilst the feminist movement definitively had some positive aspects, it’s opposed to the model of the traditional family. Check all the lifestyle magazines and their opinion on stay-at-home moms. Each and every woman is free to choose, nevertheless is being being mother/wife only discouraged in Western societies.
      - Anonymous on January 21, 2018 · at 9:56 pm EST/EDT
        
        @Islam and Christianity aren’t too far apart with regard to marriage.
        
        Only three wives apart! Not to talk of “those whom your right hands possess” (Mā malakat aymānukum)!
    - Anonymous on January 22, 2018 · at 12:50 am EST/EDT
      
      @Islam did not spread….by the sword
      
      Oh, really?
Traveller on January 18, 2018 · at 6:02 pm EST/EDT

Saker, I agree with most of your assesment, but that comment regarding bombing runways does make you think.

In the scenario where Israel (for whatever specific reason) decides to go all-out on Russia’s AA systems in Syria, it could be countered by firing some 70-80 Kalibrs and taking out most of the available runways. After that, israel’s capacity for launching air strikes would have been greatly reduced, although they would probably use stretches of highway, do hasty repairs on runways, etc.

But the truth is, israel IS a tiny nation in terms of land area, and taking out all available runways is not impossible task at all.

As far as the actual wisdom of start shooting down israeli airplanes, or targeting their surface-to-surface missile launch sites is concerned, it is not all that simple as you put it. It will basically depend on amount of damage they inflict on Hezbollah or SAA, since they ARE Russia’s allies in Syria’s war. Hence, degrading their capabilities prolongs conflict and makes life more difficult for Russia.

It is not like Russia is on tourist vacation in Syria, they are fighting a war there, and they have to protect their allies by simple military logic. At the moment, it is probably wise to keep hostilities from escalating, but at some stage wider war with zionist entity is actually inevitable at my opinion.

Israel will not allow Syria’s war to end, as the next SAA and Hezbollah target is than Golan. So, evil maniacs as they are, they’ll have to launch massive airstrikes when Syria’s government victory on the battlefield becomes inevitable. They would simply have no other option, as they will gradually become more and more weaker, so they have to act swiftly. Than Russia will have to either retreat and go home (which would mean that all the efforts and casualties suffered so far were for nothing ), or respond in force. In which case I am not exactly sure how that would play out, and would very much like to hear your opinion on that.

Yes, NATO and Israel can saturate Russian installations in Syria (with some cost), but hundreds (or thousands) of missiles that would have in that scenario come screeming from Caspian Sea, Tupolevs flying in Russia’s airspace, and some submarines, would make that a very costly victory for the aggressor. Not to mention mining Israelis ports, which would make supply extremely difficult, and from what I can figure Russia is a way ahead in mining warfare than its counterparts.

Again, it would be great to read your assesment on that (not so) hypothetical scenario..:)
mike k on January 18, 2018 · at 6:04 pm EST/EDT

A masterful article! I am impressed by the restraint and fidelity to peace and nonviolence wherever possible. The struggle in the world today is between leaders and countries acting with wisdom and foresight, and the crazy ideas and childish tantrums of likes of Trump and his neocon controllers. Excessive power and wealth lead to hubris, which is a sort of megalomaniac insanity, which eventually destroys those afflicted with it.
Richard Steven Hack on January 18, 2018 · at 6:15 pm EST/EDT

I agree that Russia has no desire to get into a war with Israel and neither does Iran since that is precisely what Israel wants – a justification to start a war with Iran that the US will prosecute.

As I’ve said often here, however, the goal of Israel and the US in the Syria crisis was to degrade Syria’s military, thus making it easier to attack and degrade Hizballah’s capabilities in Lebanon, as preconditions for starting the Iran war.

That has not changed. It remains the goal of Israel and the US, although now it appears to be shifting toward a direct attack on Lebanon by Israel with possible direct support by the US. However, Syria is still very much in the crosshairs as the continued presence of US troops in Syria and continued air attacks by israel on Syria prove.

The question still remains: What will Russia do if Syria *is* eventually attacked by either or both Israel and the US/NATO in a full-scale attempt to destroy Syria’s military and the Assad government exactly as was done in Libya?

Russia will have to make some tough decisions in that scenario. It will either have to give up its intentions to maintain military and naval bases in Syria, or it will have to more directly support the Assad regime.

It also cannot ignore the obvious intent that such an attack has on preconditions for a US war with Iran. While Russia may have no “moral reason” or direct consequences to defend Syria or Iran or Lebanon, there will be negative consequences for Russia’s foreign policy if the US and Israel are given a free hand in destroying those three countries.

Putin has done extremely well so far in dealing with the situation. But the US and Israel have not given up and will not give up until they get their war with Iran, if it takes another two decades to get it. Russia will have to continue to monitor the situation and make some sort of intervention, however slight, in order to prevent a Middle East meltdown which will do no one any good (except Israel and the war profiteers in the US.)
Full Spectrum Domino on January 18, 2018 · at 6:22 pm EST/EDT

Russia is a Christian nation, an aggregation of souls. Quite paradoxically this places it at something of a tactical disadvantage. Though the Grand Strategy, salvation and redemption, will see it through in the final analysis.

Forgive me, but I have been belaboring the notion up on this blog that…

The Empire is an implacable machine (Sartre term, 1947) no longer answerable to human vectors such as passion, moral imperative, spentness, circumspection, the sense of a good fight lost, etc.

As the Antichrist spirit increasingly inhabits and animates the Empire juggernaut, in an animatronic (Umberto Eco term) –as opposed to an organic/human– manner, it will betray more aspects of the Beast.

Full Spectrum Dominance is a Beltway euphemism for a ubiquitous disembodied spirit that expels human gesture and impulse. Like most euphemisms it is meant to point away from and obfuscate the elemental spiritual battle, which is the only one that counts. Focus on flesh and blood –tanks on a battlefield– and you lose sight of the Principalities that array them.

So in Syria and elsewhere the Empire will come again and again and again. Tirelessly like a machine.This is an inhuman tempo without pause for reflection or redirection, and certainly without the slightest notion odf strategic reversal

An analogous phenomenon, in a political vein, is what Sheldon Wolin called inverted totalitarianism. This advanced form of totalitarianism has dispensed with a charismatic figure. It’s ‘advancement’ consists in the fact that it inhabits the entire system and can no longer be chased down with picks and effigies to be hanged from a bridge upside-down. The dilemma for Wolin was that IT was everywhere and nowhere like a colorless odorless gas. Think of distributive totalitarianism. We all participate in our repression. It cannot be localized. This, I submit, is another aspect of the Antichrist Spirit.

So when I see people up here speaking of devils, evil, possessed souls, etc., I wonder if they like me are still a tad embarrassed by these spooky descriptors. In recent years I have shed my embarrassment. Geopolitics is meaningless shadow-play in the absence of this crucial off-screen spiritual context.

–FSD
- Snow Leopard on January 18, 2018 · at 9:49 pm EST/EDT
  
  An excellent post FSD. America as the great Satan should really read the Great Satan has assembled its machine in the USA. But America is a nation historically programmed to encounter its own oppression and discover a deeper understanding of itself in the process of confronting of that oppression. One of America’s greatest poets wrote that he is waiting for someone to spiritually discover America. The totalitarian machine of which your write with such depth of understanding is designed by Creator to force the spiritual discovery of America. Then in that discovery America becomes an amphitheater within which Joseph Campbell’s “only myth worth talking” about breaks through to the surface of mass consciousness. That being the mythic struggle for world unity. The machine itself is evidence of a deeper and wondrous presence. When we focus on the pain and suffering of the struggle, as we must, to easy it is to forget the deeper internal outworking. Keep on writing!
  - Full Spectrum Domino on January 19, 2018 · at 9:17 am EST/EDT
    
    “But America is a nation historically programmed to encounter its own oppression and discover a deeper understanding of itself in the process of confronting that oppression. One of America’s greatest poets wrote that he is waiting for someone to spiritually discover America.”
    
    You’re speaking of Whitman of course, Snow Leopard. Very well said. I think you’re expressing a Kubrick notion: the monolith is a telos continually propelling man forward. There’s merit to that indeed. Or maybe Sartre’s implacable machine is a Deus ex Machina here to perform essentially the same task, that is, to profoundly objectify reality in order to create a groundswell of alienation that forces a mass spiritual accounting.
    
    But from a Christian eschatological standpoint, I am of the sanguine view that things will get much worse before they get better. So I don’t believe in a terrestrially-based self-perfecting mechanism that ‘withers oppression away’ That’s not to say we should adopt ascetic passivity and not fight for social justice. Ofnly that ull-bodied and inclusive justice won’t arrive in this realm.
    
    –FSD
- Dr N.G. Maroudas on January 19, 2018 · at 12:04 pm EST/EDT
  
  @FSD: “Focus on flesh and blood –tanks on a battlefield– and you lose sight of the Principalities that array them.” — St.Paul, Ephesians 6:12
  - Full Spectrum Domino on January 19, 2018 · at 1:09 pm EST/EDT
    
    That’s right Dr. NG.
    
    G-d forgive me, I sort of bastardized what has easily become the most important NT verse for me in recent years. It’s very Platonic. Physicalism is the central illusion, Realm of Shadows, not to mention that we’re getting recent confirmation in many ways via modern Physics. Glorious convergence. We must struggle at all times NOT to believe our eyes.
    
    https://fullspectrumdominoes.wordpress.com/2018/01/14/1933/
    
    The demonic project of the “destruction of superstition” (Baudelaire, 1869, The Generous Gambler) was an attempt to dethrone the Principalities which, not coincidentally, vaulted Lucifer to the fore. Such a clever clever boy he is. I ask, what side has benefited most from stressing the centrality of materiality?
    
    It pays to read Baudelaire’s short piece as it is without question an authentic transcript from the Necessary Angel himself imho and also prefigures Mick Jagger’s sympathetic ode as well as the dispiriting ethos of an entire Western epoch.
    
    http://gutenberg.net.au/ebooks06/0607031h.html
    
    If you want a compounding fork in the road (post-1054 schism) of east/west Christianity, Baudelaire captures it here. As does Ivan Ilyin in his own way on this very blog:
    
    ” Do not be surprised, my dear, by the unbelief and faithlessness of the Western peoples: they took an incorrect act of faith from the Roman Church which begins from the will and ends with rational thought and, having taken it, disdained their hearts and lost the art of contemplation. This is what predetermined the religious crisis that they are suffering through today.”
    
    /ivan-ilyin-on-contemplative-love/
    
    As far is Christianity is concerned, we’re entering the Third Rome era and that’s coming from a recalcitrant Calvinist whose renewed interest in Christianity was piqued by rumblings from the East. Dostoevksy was right. Russia will be the vanguard of a global Christian revival that may yet save ‘post-religious’ Europe from Islamic jihadism.
    
    https://wordpress.com/post/fullspectrumdominoes.wordpress.com/1300
    
    –FSD
TEP on January 18, 2018 · at 6:44 pm EST/EDT

“Can somebody please explain to me why Russia has some moral obligation towards Syria or Iran or Hezbollah when not a single Muslim or Arab country has done anything to help the Syrian government fight against the Takfiris? ”

– I hear what you are saying, but to my mind there is at least ‘some’ obligation towards the Russian military and their Families who have made sacrifices (including many lives) during the Syria task, i.e. there is a moral obligation to try to ensure that those seeking to derail Russian efforts in Syria do not succeed in turning those sacrifices into ones made in vain?
- Rob from Canada on January 18, 2018 · at 9:26 pm EST/EDT
  
  The sunk costs fallacy is not a wise basis for decision making in warfare.
  
  The only moral obligation in warfare is to win(enforce your will on your opponent) as morally as possible(minimal loss of life, suffering and economic cost). Besides, it’s always a dumb idea to do what your opponent wants you to do. Like, respond to an Israeli provocation.
  
  The wise course of action is to do what Israel doesn’t want: Continue to eliminate their ISIS and Al Qaeda proxies.
  - Larchmonter445 on January 19, 2018 · at 11:41 am EST/EDT
    
    Your tact is correct, and the results so far show, as Saker stated, the big loser in Syria is Bibi, Mossad, IDF and the warmongering government of Israel. US policy is in a new dangerous stage, so we can’t count them as big a loser. But they have suffered a huge setback. They are determined to hurt Russia in repay for such a disastrous outcome.
    
    The frustration now turns to reckless strategies using al Nusra, Kurds, and the willing bodies of Americans who think war is the end all and be all of
    - Rob from Canada on January 19, 2018 · at 10:31 pm EST/EDT
      
      Their plans for outflanking Hezbollah in southern Lebanon via Syria are wrecked.
      
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyNfTUK3XTM
      
      It’s a good thing for Russia the military reform movement of the 70’s failed.
      
      http://www.pogo.org/straus/issues/military-reform/
Anonymous on January 18, 2018 · at 7:30 pm EST/EDT

What if the Syrian government officially asked for help in dealing with this?

We’ve heard that with regard to the current intervention in Syria that the Syrian government asked for help dealing with its foreign terrorist problems? So, what if the Syrian government asked for help in dealing with a rogue neighbor who keeps violating territorial airspace and bombing targets within its boundaries?

I’d agree that Russia currently has no obligation to deal with this roque neighbor. And I rather suspect that if Syria was to ask, then Russia’s response might be “don’t ask us that”.

It would be an entirely sybolic act, but I’d like to see Syria and others call for a special UNSC session, like the USA just did over Iran, to deal with this nasty problem of having one state bomb targets within another state. In an ideal world, that would be recognized as a direct violation of the UN Charter. In this world, the one benefit it would accomplish is that it would make the US and friends come out of the shadows and go on the record veto’ing such a resolution.

Meanwhile, Russia could also say ‘we can’t get involved’ when the Turks start blowing the heck out of the US proxy forces mobilizing on Turkey’s border.
- Sarmis2014 on January 19, 2018 · at 12:18 am EST/EDT
  
  “Trying to reason with the Israelis or get the to listen to the UN has been tried by many countries for decades and if there is one thing which is beyond doubt is that the Israelis don’t give a damn about what anybody has to say.”
  You are voicing one of my long term frustration with the lack of a more vigorous reaction against all the violations the sovereign Syria endured so far: countless bombardment from Israel and USA, unauthorized military bases (virtual occupations) on its territory, and so on… I understand there are milliard of reasons not to respond by force but what prevents Syria to raise the hell at UN every single time Syrian sovereignty is attack or disregarded.? Why Russia and China don’t support and encourage Syria to demand explanation, in front of the whole world, from Israel and USA? Why the aggressors are left to have their business like usual in Syria? It’s not necessary to start a kinetic war, but a diplomatic war, based on facts and truths, and in front of the world, as often as necessary, I think is very possible and like you said: “one benefit it would accomplish is that it would make the US and friends come out of the shadows “
  - anodinous on January 20, 2018 · at 12:52 pm EST/EDT
    
    two thumbs up!
    even if it doesnt work, any country stepped on by the natzo/uza armies should cry like a baby in front of the world public audience.
    the minimun least was, when bush jr left the international penal court before invading iraq, all other coutries should demmand foreign bases and interventions closed. a country which does not believe in the internacional tribunal should have no voice in the international community.
    yet, somehow everyone seems to forget that… and whereas i often see people asking for blair to answer for war crimes, no one even botters to question why the “exceptional” wanna be world police does not even follow world treaties…
- Katherine on January 19, 2018 · at 11:42 pm EST/EDT
  
  “I’d like to see Syria and others call for a special UNSC session, ”
  
  I agree, and I have said the same.
  It might be symbolic but it should still be done.
  Silence = Consent.
  
  I do not understand why Syria does not go to the UNGA over and over again, with each new outrage. Now, call out Tillerson with his recent outrageous speech and stated USA intentions and ask for a vote condemning the US military presence and plans in Syria. Assad is the legal head of the Syrian state. More legal than Donald Trump, if you start counting votes. How can the stated objective of overthrowing him be tolerated by the international community?
  
  Katherine
Nate on January 18, 2018 · at 8:45 pm EST/EDT

“Their task is to incapacitate that monkey without having it pull the pin.”

I think the monkey hand grenade analogy only appears to be valid in the short term. Long term it doesn’t work because the monkey’s actions are essentially random due to it’s ignorance, and the animal will eventually lose interest and let the thing go.

The Empire will never let go of the pin! Over time the chance of it getting pulled will become overwhelming, they will seek direct confrontations as a distraction from internal conflict at home or as a desperate gamble.

If Putin’s strategy is to avoid a fight indefinitely then he will fail. The only hope lies in a quick victory and then prayers that the Empire doesn’t respond by blowing up the World because they can’t have it.

Note: I am not saying avoiding a direct conflict now isn’t a good idea, only that ultimately it won’t work. Corruption, overextension, and political correctness is rotting away the American military relentlessly now so it makes since to wait.
Annon on January 18, 2018 · at 9:02 pm EST/EDT

If Russia can sell s400 to turkey, then why not sell s400 to Syria ?

Syria is Russias ally in the mid east, lets not pretend its not
Anonymous on January 19, 2018 · at 12:37 am EST/EDT

Personally, I suspect that this is simply a case of ‘the time not yet being right.’ If the Zionist regime does not end its attacks on Syria after order has been restored to more and more of the country, there will be a response. The Syria/Russia/Iran coalition will not let these Zionist attacks go on forever and eventually they will be stopped.
NATO Blues on January 19, 2018 · at 12:37 am EST/EDT

I don’t know, if there are three weak kids on a playground and one bully messes with them everyday for all to see, but there is another bigger/stronger kid who one day steps in and pushes the bully down in front of the weak kids, the problem is 100% resolved from then on. This is how I see Russia’s role, especially in light of the fact that Syria hosts a naval and air base for them. The “I’ll just turn my eye while you pick on my friend, ally and host.” ideal doesn’t really gel with most people I think. In any event, we know who the two main bullies of the world are and if Russia doesn’t stand up to them directly on behalf of a friend, ally and host, then who will? At some point, as we both know, someone is going to have to step up to this plate. Somehow, when it happens, I don’t see the U.S. going beyond a lot of bellicose rhetoric for reasons of simple self-preservation and/or a loud and clear public rebuke. You saw the reaction of the poor Hawaiian’s over the false missile alert. Imagine the entire West or East Coast reacting to a direct threat of this nature. The sound would be deafening and even the warmonger neo(cons) would blink thrice. Respect to you Saker as always.
- Rita Lamar on January 19, 2018 · at 12:21 pm EST/EDT
  
  I think Russian stand up to the bully has already happened, when Russia came in support of Syria! It was one of those moments in history you cannot forget. And Russia won! I my opinion, the US (and its boss in Occupied Palestine) are totally demoralized, and all of those who are following what is happening in the region can see it.
- Rita Lamar on January 19, 2018 · at 12:41 pm EST/EDT
  
  I want to risk one more comment here…
  
  I my view, diplomacy, reinforced by deterrence, is the only rational way to get out of the mess we are in the world today (as to deterrence, it seems that North Korea has done the right thing; they need to use diplomacy, now, as the opportunity arises, to defeat the beast – and it seems that they are going to!!!). Even for Russia, with all its arsenal and people, it would be suicide to confront the aggressors directly, starting a hot war.
Anonymous on January 19, 2018 · at 2:40 am EST/EDT

Concerning Jewish immigrants from Russia and other places Uri Avnery recently published an article on counterpunch: https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/01/08/why-i-am-angry/

This article may help answer the question of the person who had sent the mail.
Ann on January 19, 2018 · at 3:20 am EST/EDT

Thanks Saker, a very sane and well presented article – its great that Putin is such a careful statesman. One of your sentences made me almost laugh though –

“So yes, the Russian probably could stop one or a few Israeli attacks, but if the Israelis decided to engage in a sustained air campaign against targets in Syria there is nothing the Russians could do short of going to war with Israel.”

Wow I just can’t see that happening – the Israelis are such ignoble cowards – sustained warfare against Russia – Ha – it ain’t happening.

But I agree that there should be no unnecessary risks taken with Nuclear –

btw – I would bet a penny that Russians in the next centuries will refer to Putin as St Vladimir – what do you think ?
- Yuri on January 19, 2018 · at 6:22 am EST/EDT
  
  >btw – I would bet a penny that Russians in the next centuries will refer to Putin as St Vladimir – what do you
  > think ?
  
  Being a Russian I’ll say it’s not very likely. Most of us supports him in foreign affairs, but we have alot of questions and claims in internal ones.
  A LOT.
  
  But yes – Syria, Crimea, Ukraine, Georgia, Munich speech … that clear what absolute majority of stands for.
  - Nate on January 20, 2018 · at 9:57 am EST/EDT
    
    “Being a Russian I’ll say it’s not very likely. Most of us supports him in foreign affairs, but we have alot of questions and claims in internal ones.
    A LOT.”
    
    That just means you’re living in a free country.
    
    I doubt there a half dozen countries in the world, and none that count of a major power, that boast a government that deserve it’s people’s trust.
Depth Charge on January 19, 2018 · at 3:49 am EST/EDT

Russia needs to be careful. Forget about moral responsibilities, but showing weakness in Syria will eventually translate to Ukraine and other areas. The end game is probably to balkanize Russia.
Peace on January 19, 2018 · at 4:19 am EST/EDT

I got all my answers. Thank you
The Saker
Anonymous on January 19, 2018 · at 4:59 am EST/EDT

So, how does this development fit with the ‘Russia focused on Russia’ thesis?

Africa and the Chinese OneBelt/Road project are a lot further than 1,000km from the border.

https://orientalreview.org/2018/01/18/russia-might-pivot-africa-mercenaries/

(also on ZH)
- Anonymous on January 19, 2018 · at 6:16 am EST/EDT
  
  Probably Russia isn’t focused on Russia solely. Nevertheless does the linked article imply that Russia already is actively engaged in such secret military missions:
  
  “… which to focus on in the course of this article is what Stratfor recently said about the African angle of this topic.”
  
  The article contains a lot of “might haves” and “mays”. For example:
  
  “Having these objectives in mind, it makes perfect sense why Russia might have actually dispatched “mercenaries” to those”
  
  Another aspect that’s suspect about the article is the assumption about the possible motivation of Russia: Already the headline “Reaping The “Rewards”” directs the reader to think it’s all about money. The following passage goes on with speculations like this:
  
  “…in many cases result in energy or mining deals that eventually lead to a further and more robust Russian presence in the continent.”
  
  I go along with the conclusion that another military power could bring some balance on the African continent. Already many citizens of African countries prefer Chinese presence over the presence of the West (mainly by the US), because they get better deals. Nevertheless do I disagree that the motivation behind such possible Russian moves is lust for imperial power and to establish colonies. Letting the West continue its African policies definitely would bring more poverty, death and destruction for those most vulnerable.
Yuri on January 19, 2018 · at 6:14 am EST/EDT

Thank you Saker. Good as always.
Being in common agree with all your points, I, as well as many russians, feel a little bad on that endless number of concessions which Putin is doing.
It’s the diplomacy properties, sports, economics and politics…
Israel-Syria relations is just one case.
Yes, we shouldn’t threaten anybody as US does, nor should we do steps which can end up with global war (if possible).
But help to Syria could’ve been more clear like sell them modern weapons (like S-200 and/or mobile antiaircraft weapon).
Now, when US is going to give Ukraine lethal weapons, it could be a good time for that and will show US where they are going.
These monkeys understand only clear signs (as DPRK shows) .
- Yuri on January 19, 2018 · at 8:25 am EST/EDT
  
  of course S-400 not 200
Harry on January 19, 2018 · at 6:15 am EST/EDT

A good read, thank you.

One or two minor points where the author dissembles somewhat: “True, Russia did stand by President Assad, but that was not because of any obligation towards him or his country, but because the Russians always insisted that he was the legitimate President of Syria and that only the Syrian people had the right to replace (or keep) him” (end quote)
It seems to me that Russia, who are somewhat lacking in warm water ports would place a significant value upon Tartus. That said, with both Tartus and Kaliningrad in mind the Russian Air Base in Latakia is strategic Gold. Too Assad stood firm against the pressure from the west re: Quatars pipeline proposals on the grounds that this would damage Russia economically. This sounds to me as though an obligation certainly existed.

I believe Russias’ insistence upon acting within the bounds of International law answers most of the rest of the questions. Israels’ actions are unacceptable in light of International law as are those of the US, but, no formal state of war exists between the actual protagonists, so, as absurd as it seems Russias’ hands are tied unless it to becomes a Rogue State,
Anonymous on January 19, 2018 · at 6:17 am EST/EDT

” Where was the Muslim or Arab “help” or “friendship” towards Russia when sanctions were imposed and the price of oil dropped?”

Turkey and Morocco for my knowledge opened their doors to exports to Russia. When EU sanctioned Russia for agricultral products, Morocco opened its doors. I have friends who own big agricultural lands in Morocco who rent it to russian to cultivate so to export back to Russia ( I have names I may also have names of russians involved).

This is the answer the question of where where were arabs/muslims when Russia was sanctioned. Otherwise I enjoyed reading the article. Thanks for your good work The Saker.
Edward on January 19, 2018 · at 7:54 am EST/EDT

I think this article may overstate matters a bit. It is true that Russia is not obliged to rescue Syria every time there is a problem such as these Israeli attacks. At the same, there are not zero obligations either. Possible obligations can form a continuum rather then being either 0% or 100%. There must be some understanding between Russia and Syria about what each side can expect from the other. The details of this understanding are unknown to us, but I don’t see evidence that Russia is obliged to respond to the Israeli attacks.

At the same time, it is hard to know if the Russians are or are not responding because they can act quietly. For all we know they may have done something or are planning something and we are simply unaware. I am skeptical that the Russians are actually as neutral as this article suggests. It should be kept in mind that at least some of these attacks have been against demands made by the Russians to the Israelis. There was an attack not long ago after which the Russians sounded angry. If the Russians do respond, though, it will not be out of anger but from a careful assessment.
cbrown on January 19, 2018 · at 9:31 am EST/EDT

I hold no illusion that both Chinese and Russian are saints or any other in regards to running the country. If the chances present themselves I’m sure both China and Russia would play the empirical doctrine in enrichment as well as the exploitation of others in the same way of the US and the west. Governmental system will always corrupted later only how much widespread and how fast.

Now back on topic i never think that Russia has to retaliate or escalate tension in the manner that can inconvenience themselves or against their interests however it also makes them unreliable ally. That’s it. It’s cooperation are loose and commitment weren’t anything close to 100%. Alliances made by circumstances, break by circumstances.

We have seen the North Korea boxed into corner that the people around it’s supreme leader couldn’t give an alternative solution other than it’s becoming de facto nuclear states. What Russia and China do amidst all the isolation it faces is to further isolates them. They’re playing the west way. “Do our demand or else !”

Now then i wouldn’t bet Russian Air Force can hit illegal invasion of Turkish forces nor it can later force their expulsion with opposition acting for their political cover.
Phaeton on January 19, 2018 · at 9:41 am EST/EDT

“Why is Putin “allowing” Israel to bomb Syria?”
This is kinda wrong.Completely.
Last time Israel actually bombed(!)Syria was in 2015.
These days Israel conducts cruise and ballistic missile strikes on Syria specifically because entering SAM envelope is DEATH.Cruise missiles that are launched from aircraft are universally launched both from beyond Syrian borders and from radar shadow.
There is nothing short of destroying Israely air force bases that can be done.
But nobody’s “allowing”anything.Israel’s cruise and ballistic arsenals are extremely limited,and now it’s forced to use these.While Russian personnel gets free training against somewhat modern targets.
Little Black Duck on January 19, 2018 · at 9:53 am EST/EDT

It’s easy to recognise wisdom when you read it.
Thanks Saker, you write with such authority [despite the typo’s].

The protocols of Zion states unequivocally that men are not equal. This premise is the all important difference between the Zionist and the rest of us.
In a way their philosophy is the most accurate and realistic of the major religions as it embraces Darwinism in as much as competition is what drives not just mankind but all of life on earth and competition is what Zionism demands [them against us].
As Zionism is littoral or fundamentalist Judaism, it draws on a political tactic of divide and rule which has seen it survive and thrive for thousands of years. While the rest of us are busy cooperating with each other building and improving the quality of life in our own societies, you know who is infiltrating the organisations with influence in those societies eventually setting competing interests against each other, class against class, religion against religion, capital against labour, black against white, country against country, always profiting and climbing the greasy pole relentlessly and one hates to acknowledge, successfully.
If there had been no psycho’s trying to blow up, slow down, hijack, profit from our labours and hard earned assets even for the past 100 years it’s hard to imagine where we would be now, let alone for the past 2500 years.
No doubt some other repugnant religio/political philosophy would have been invented to fill the void.
What we are witnessing now I think, is the penultimate triumph of Judaism over it’s competition.
They have all but vanquished Christ in the west which has led not just to a moral breakdown but an abandonment of His wisdom in dealing with Judaism. They have all but won.
Their problem is they can not win.
The ultimate prize they seek is unattainable. Their eyes are bigger than their belly’s.
I feel sorry for their innocent ones.
I probably speak for a lot of your readers when I say we don’t expect Russia to defend sanity/Christianity/Islam/ our peace and prosperity………. but God, we wish they would.
It’s easy and awful to imagine how this will end and what is obvious now is that a balance of power is needed if we are to avoid carnage. The beast of Judaism must be met with a beast of Christendom, and Russia is it.
BillAwees on January 19, 2018 · at 10:20 am EST/EDT

Sorry, Saker, (mod-to: try “I believe”) you got this one wrong.
If Russia didn’t have a moral obligation and responsibility to protect the vulnerable especially from countries with WMD, then it (Russia)would not be more than a beneficiary of an unjust international system that privileges the very few at the expense of the rest of the world. And I don’t think that Putin views such issues from the same angle. A very important point to remember is the fact that Putin always stresses the non negotiable right to sovereignty by all states. So if he wasn’t sincere about all this, then that would make him a hypocrite big time and clearly he is Not.

Mod-to note: Perhaps The Saker describes the bigger picture more adequately than us “armchair analysts”. It is easy to theorize ideals when one cannot interpret the complex reality of the whole. It is far more difficult and takes much more critical analysis to actually see this reality and describe it, hence quite difficult for lesser talents (like us) to grasp.
Rita Lamar on January 19, 2018 · at 11:39 am EST/EDT

Dear Saker,
A great, important article, thanks! I could not stop reading your well-thought-out arguments. I love this site because I learn a lot from you and the also brilliant people that make comments, here. My thanks to all of you!

You say that “… the Israeli (and US!) propensity to use force as a substitute for diplomacy is a sign of weakness, not of strength.” Yes; and I would add that they know that the nations they so much despise are at the right side of history. They are lost; they know it, which weakens them even further… Let’s rejoice, together!
дулебг on January 19, 2018 · at 1:14 pm EST/EDT

It is important to underline: that The Syrian AA forces downed 2/3 of the rockets launched in a last Israeli attack.
Sturm on January 19, 2018 · at 1:28 pm EST/EDT

Was wondering when this sort of article would turn up. It was inevitable, as people would notice Russia’s lack of enthusiasm to get into direct confrontation with Israel, despite job well done in Syria.

Well, he’s right about the Russian-Jewish relationship. They are “complex”. You don’t need to be an analyst to notice this (or even formally digest that linked Saker article from 2015). Just keep an eye for various bits of interesting news/articles from any sources, one example e.g. “Russia to pay pensions to former Soviet citizens living in Israel …” can imply several things. Using these bits and pieces, you can stitch together a rough mental picture.

Russia’s general strategy at this point in time is to avoid responding aggressively to low impact provocations which brings little benefits if acted upon (not to say they won’t do anything, just low key). They’ve set this precedent over the years with many noteworthy provocative incidents involving Russian civilians and military. So there is a record for all to see.

If they won’t respond (overtly) to Israel’s carte-blanche attacks, it’s not completely out of alignment from their general strategy. Putin is an intelligent man and chooses his battles carefully. What I think Israel is doing is probing Putin’s redline. Tbh, what really matters, at the end of the day, is Russia (& regional allies) preserving Syria in one piece and work towards stabilizing the Mid-East region into peace. How they do it, takes a backstage … in my opinion.

That said, I think it’s fair to say that some people aren’t in the naive category.
Russia’s actions, today and in the future will certainly be scrutinized more closely ;)
voltaire1964 on January 19, 2018 · at 1:58 pm EST/EDT

Given my enormous gratitude and respect for the Saker, I hesitate to… pull his leg, in however friendly a manner. Still… I believe that if the Saker had been a Socrate’s contemporary, Socrates would have given him the crown of top sophist, on the basis of this most interesting article.
Described in its concisest terms, a sophist was someone capable of winning any argument, independently and irrespective of the propounded thesis.
The thesis, here, is that the de facto current partition of Syria, effected by Usrael, is no Russia’s business. This assumes that partition were the end goal of the Jews, rather than a stepping stone. A step towards achieving what they couldn’t obtain so far.
Hence, I would contend that what happens now in Syria is of great importance for Russia’s security.
The Jews, which means in practice the US political-military machine, operate according to the official motto of the Mossad, “By way of Deception thou shalt do war.” And deception implies exploiting any enemy’s weakness to pitilessly destroy him. As per the words of a contemporary Israeli Rabbi, “The nail of a Jew is worth the life of a million goy.”
Saddam, Gadhafi and others fell into the trap of believing in Western ethics, without realizing (or ignoring) that the “West”, in the instance, was a mask for Talmudic Judaism.
My heart wishes to believe the arguments of this presentation. But, apart from military considerations, Jewry has the most powerful weapon in the world, money. And absolute control of money means the power to corrupt absolutely.
In my view, the most worrisome information contained in the Saker’s article is the statement about pervading and continuing Jewish power at the Kremlin. I wonder if there is any current information on this issue.
Nussiminen on January 19, 2018 · at 2:09 pm EST/EDT

“/…/ they all understand that they are dealing with a ‘monkey with a hand grenade’ (this fully applies to both Israeli and US leaders) which combines a nasty personality, a volatile temper, a primitive brain and a hand grenade big enough to kill everybody in the room.”

True. And they understand too that the beast’s final spasms are the most dangerous ones. As the exceptional, indispensable, and chosen garbage of this planet completely lacks human dignity and courage, violent hysteria sets in as soon as it starts to dawn upon these folks that they’re not invincible.
Katherine on January 19, 2018 · at 6:24 pm EST/EDT

” When Hassan Nasrallah promises something you can take it to the bank. But Hezbollah leaders are sophisticated enough to retaliate when the time is right and on their own terms”

Revenge is a dish best eaten cold.
Katherine
Alieu on January 19, 2018 · at 9:16 pm EST/EDT

Failing to retaliate for another country shooting down one of your planes in an unprovoked attack is a sign of weakness, not of strength. Do you think America or Israel would allow someone to get away with that, without any kind of retaliation? Russia has nothing to fear from Israel except the Jewish fifth column inside their country. Maybe it’s time Russia started treating Jews the way Jews treat the Palestinians? Revoke their citizenship and deport them to their beloved Israel. Problem solved. The USSR shot down dozens of Israeli aircraft in the early 70s in Egypt, no reason why Russia can’t do it again.

Russia is far more powerful than Israel. Israel should be fearing Russia – not vice versa. It sounds like you’re just trying to make excuses for Russia’s weak and incompetent foreign policy, both in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Russia has the joint-largest nuclear arsenal in the world, nobody can intimidate them. Letting Turkey get away with the attack on the Russian aircraft will only encourage more people to do the same thing, since now they know they can get away with it. When dealing with these people you have to show them you mean business – force is the only language the Zionists and their lackeys understand. Otherwise they won’t take you seriously. All the military power in the world is of no use if you don’t have the resolve to use it. You have to make them pay a price so they will think twice about attacking you again in the future.
- Another bored Muslim on January 20, 2018 · at 8:36 pm EST/EDT
  
  You spoke like a true GI Joe, the foot soldiers that caused the misery of many wherever they set foot in.
uncle tungsten on January 19, 2018 · at 9:26 pm EST/EDT

In case you want to respond to very nice comment -PD.
Thank you Saker and may your life remain blessed every day with clarity and rational mind. That was a really fine report and an exceptionally sane analysis. Most times a durable peace is achieved through a continuous and relentless series of small positive actions to counter the brutality of warmongers.

I believe Putin and his team have a workable formula to keep the scheming murderers compartmentalised and bottled up in Syria. Piece by piece they have encircled and annihilated them and so it goes.

I guess as onlookers we sometimes feel impatient for an end to it but that is an illusion in the everyday. The struggle for peace is an inter-generational necessity and will yield for humanity inter-generational justice and a measure of freedom.

Thank you Saker, you are an inspiration.
—
Dear friend,
Thanks for your kind, if undeserved, words!
The truth is that I am just a facilitator of sorts and that I have a wonderful and large community making it all possible.
Kind regards and many thanks
The Saker
Mark Hadath on January 19, 2018 · at 9:30 pm EST/EDT

There appears to be, some serious misunderstanding in these comments today of the Russian long game in Syria. Putin has used limited resources judiciously. He cannot take Israel on at this point even if he wanted to. Putin is a master pragmatist. Many of these comments today appear devoid of that knowledge. Maybe the word Israel is a trigger for some that throws off rational analysis. I think The Saker nailed it completely. What Putin is doing with Israel is completely consistent with how he has handled the US over the last three years. Pick your spots as to where you can have success. Consolidate around those success and minimize Russian losses. He has done that exceedingly well.

It is fair to say the war is not over. The area east of the Euphrates has a large American presence. In due time, Turkey, Iran and Hezebollah will address this problem. It just may take ten years. They won’t forget however.

For now, the SAA must liberate Idlib province and the other rebel held areas around Damascus and in southern Syria along the Golan Heights. Also the American presence around Al-Tanf must be dealt with. That’s probably a years worth of work at least.

What must be held at the forefront of one’s mind in this discussion is the long game.
- vot tak on January 19, 2018 · at 10:05 pm EST/EDT
  
  MH
  
  Most of the Russia bashing here is by websayanim who are well aware of the reality. They have a job to do and that job is to dissuade others from thinking that Russia, and her allies, offer a viable alternative to zionazia, inc. Some are rather clever in going about this psywar, such as the author of the article Saker mentioned at the beginning of his own article here. And some are rather obvious:
  
  /why-is-putin-allowing-israel-to-bomb-syria/#comment-478359
Anonymous on January 20, 2018 · at 4:32 am EST/EDT

For strange reasons the first thing that sprung to mind was Vladimir Soloviov’s ‘A short Tale of the Antichrist’.
after reading the attacks against Russia Insider.
34.8021° N, 38.9968° E on January 20, 2018 · at 8:56 am EST/EDT

Thanks Saker for the intelligent article. I find your blog very interesting to follow, although I do not entirely agree with all authors / articles, particularly the ones praising the anti-Russia formations in Eastern Ukraine – DPR and LPR (both of which I consider to be established by the same people who organised the Maidan…and both pursuing the goal of dragging Russia into a conflict / regime change). But its exactly the variety of opinions that makes me re-visit your site every now and then.

My take on the article:

– Israel’s attacks on Syria are a mere reaction to the direct and indirect political and military actions by Russia and Iran that have led to a deterioration of Israeli state security. The Israeli are quite rational in doing what they do – if their plans to colonise Syria (and its oil) and further destabilise Turkey, Iran the Caucasus, broader Russia have suffered a complete failure…and on top of that they now have a 1) Syrian army with strong morale and combat capability 2) Hezb’allah that is as combat capable as the IDF (and potentially better) and that has worked shoulder to shoulder with Spetznaz…and has all these gadgets that the uber-hyped Iron Dome can’t cope with and 3) with the events in Iraq, Iran now having a ‘de-facto’ direct land border with israel -> what could the Israelis do. One of the rational (not saying most optimal) choices they can make is to bomb Syria…as much as they can. If I were Israeli I would have probably supported such an action…what else can they do? Such bombings are, in my view, a message – not to SYR, RUS, IR…rather to global supporters of Israel —> Israel is not provoking…Israel is reacting because it has been squeezed out by Russia & Co…its losing its grip on the so called ‘buffer zone’ around Israel (Jordan being most recent to dis-engage) and is sending numb messages here and there…and yes, occasional hit on an empty depot.
Rose on January 20, 2018 · at 10:10 am EST/EDT

How about a missle defense apparatus that sends all incoming projectiles right back to where they were originally launched? A boomerang effect before they hit their intended target. Surely with all our wasted cash on military garbage someone must possess this?
Anonymous on January 20, 2018 · at 12:30 pm EST/EDT

Although well-written and argued, I suspect many will find it disappointing since it runs counter to what we hope to be the goals and strategy of President Putin and the RF government. We all perceive what the Saker calls the AngloZionist empire as an “evil” force. Debt slavery of many countries overseen by a pitiless globalist banking oligarchy. The entire system supported by a hegemonic US military ready to destroy any country deemed to be annoying.

We want to believe that President Putin together with the BRICS are forming an axis of resistance aimed to roll back the influence and undermine this system. That the bankers are soon to be doomed by the death of the petrodollar. We want to believe that Russian intervention in Syria is not just to serve narrow Russian interests but because preventing the destruction of countries and the death of millions at the hands of terrorists is simply the right thing to do.

The article presents a somewhat different picture. That is, that President Putin’s approach is based on pragmatism. In that view he doesn’t see the US fundamentally as an adversary but as a partner. In such a scenario, the President is seeking to work within existing international structures not undermine and topple them.

Perhaps the Russian strategy is too subtle for us to perceive and President Putin’s goals are to oppose the AZ empire but such hopes are often difficult to sustain.
- Full Spectrum Domino on January 22, 2018 · at 11:06 pm EST/EDT
  
  Agreed. In the end it is a scrupulously reasoned, mild disappointment –which does nothing to lessen its truth-value.
  
  –FSD