Over the past few days the Internet has been buzzing with reports about the Russian Navy sending warships including possibly guided missile cruisers (the Kerch, the Varyag, the Moskva are often mentioned), while Russian sources mention the large anti-submarine ship Admiral Panteleyev and various support vessels. Russian officials have made contradictory statements about how many ships are being send and which ships exactly would join the Russian flotilla, but the bottom line is clear: this time Russia is sending big, very capable ships. The obvious question is why?
First, I want to get the hype out of this by immediately saying that these ships are not being sent to the Mediterranean to attack the US Navy or any NATO assets. I will never cease to repeat this: a direct Russian military intervention is out of the question. But then, what are they up to?
One very likely hypothesis is that some of these ships (like the Varyag or the Moskva) have extremely powerful radars onboad, including the naval version of the S-300 (called the S-300F or SA-N-6 in NATO classification) and the associated 3R41 Volna (“Top Dome”) or (newer) 36N85 (“Flap Lid”) radars. In other words, such a warship can cruise off the Syrian coast and fully monitor much of the Syrian airspace. This type of ship is also capable of sharing this data via encrypted datalink. In the event of a US/NATO strike the Russians could not only monitor it all live, but they could easily pass on their data to the Syrians who could then continue to defend their airspace even if their own radars were to be destroyed or jammed. And while it is likely that the US/NATO would be aware of that kind of activity, there is really not too much they could do about it – not only are these ships equipped with formidable weapon systems, but the US is also not going to be willing to risk a war with Russia.
The second purpose of sending these ships to the eastern Mediterranean is that they usually have a complement of Naval Infantry troops which could be used to protect or evacuate Russian nationals if needed.
Furthermore, the mere presence of such sophisticated warships in a possible warzone will be a major irritant for CENTCOM which will have to allocate resources to track and monitor them. I am not sure if there are any US aircraft carriers in the eastern Mediterranean (last time I heard they were in the Persian Gulf), but the main capability of these Russian guided missile cruisers is to be a “carrier killer” thanks to their specially designed and very powerful missiles. The presence of such warships are just not something CENTCOM can ignore even if the Americans are certain that the Russians will not suddenly begin hostilities.
Finally, these ships have a top of the line anti-submarine warfare capability which they can use to monitor US subs near Syria, probably in conjunction with 1-2 Russian attack submarines also covertly deployed as part of this task force.
All in all, these warships, combined with Russian satellites, intelligence gathering aircraft in the skies and local intelligence assets on the ground in Syria probably give the Russians an excellent picture of what is going on, all of which they than can share with their Syrian colleagues.
The deployment of the naval task force is yet another proof that Russia is doing all it can to assist Syria and deter a US attack.
The Saker
Parliament voting against military action on Syria is huge in terms of domestic British politics. I think it could be the first time Parliament has ever voted against a prime minister on the issue of going to war.
Pubic opinion in Britain has been dead against intervening in Syria right from the start, across the political spectrum and conservative papers like the Mail, Express and Telegraph have opposed it. Only Murdoch’s Times and Sun have been banging the drum and Murdoch has American interests as well as being a fervent Zionist.
The Times published a rabbi arguing that the parable of the Good Samaritan justifies military intervention. There was a rebuttal to this in the Letters to the Editor in today’s Times arguing that the rabbi should know that Jesus taught against being swept along in a flood tide of emotion (St Luke by G.B.Caird) This was in his parable of the Two Kings “What king, going out to encounter another king in war, will not sit down first and deliberate whether he is able with ten thousand to meet him who comes against him with twenty thousand?” (Luke XIV,31)
Jesus is arguing that the careful consideration of hard facts may mean having to seek political and not lethal solutions. That is why “prudence” is a fundamental virtue in traditional Just War theory.
It would therefore make absolutely no sense for Russia to start a conflict with NATO but clearly Putin is going to use all means short of that to frustrate the US assault on Syria.
@Robert:This was in his parable of the Two Kings “What king, going out to encounter another king in war, will not sit down first and deliberate whether he is able with ten thousand to meet him who comes against him with twenty thousand?” (Luke XIV,31). Jesus is arguing that the careful consideration of hard facts may mean having to seek political and not lethal solutions. That is why “prudence” is a fundamental virtue in traditional Just War theory.
Excellent point!
This acts as a monitoring station rather than a deterrence?
Saudis offer Russia secret oil deal if it drops Syria:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/10266957/Saudis-offer-Russia-secret-oil-deal-if-it-drops-Syria.html
Could these ships provide the precise location of US and Israeli ships in the Med, to help the SAA aim its Chinese and Russian missiles?
@Anonymous1: This acts as a monitoring station rather than a deterrence?
The way a radar acts as a deterrence is by preventing the enemy from being able to covertly attack you.
@Anonymous2: Saudis offer Russia secret oil deal if it drops Syria
Yeah, that is old news, that fact cat Bandar tried that. Russia doesn’t need any deal with the KSA and will not trade off Syria on principle.
Cheers,
The Saker
Hey Saker, what’s up
It looks like some actors are saying in public what seems the surer way to prevent the return of war madness: Tell to IsraHELL, loud and clear: “If war starts, you won’t have a free ride. Forget.About.It.”
On other issue, since you are clearly a very articulated religious man, I have some questions. Sorry if they are nonsensical or something. My religious formation is pretty poor.
Having said that:
1) It looks to me that Wahabbism is a sort of satanic deformation of Islam. What’s your take?
2) I look in a similar way the Calvinist tradition in Christianity. Turning the explicit love of Christ for the poors of the Earth into a celebration of obscene wealth looks really wicked and evil to me. Again: satanic.
3) To finish with the abrahamic religions, It looks that you see many forms of judaism (Kavala? correct me if I’m wrong) as similar kinds of man-made abominations against God. ¿There are respectable traditions in Judaism? I, for one, think of the folks of Neturei Karta with the utmost respect.
You’ll see that the common trend here is a classic question: Why the evil in the world? Could you summarize the thought of your church about that?
Cheers!
@Anonymous:
It looks to me that Wahabbism is a sort of satanic deformation of Islam. What’s your take?
This question would be far better answered by an educated Muslim (and there are several who read this blog) than by myself, but I would say that in my opinion Wahabism is truly an amazingly vicious sect which really hates everybody else, literally, beginning with all the other Muslims which it accuses of being idolaters and apostates and which the Wahabis have always massacred with enthusiasm at each opportunity. Something so filled with hatred has to be Satanic in its core.
I look in a similar way the Calvinist tradition in Christianity. Turning the explicit love of Christ for the poors of the Earth into a celebration of obscene wealth looks really wicked and evil to me. Again: satanic.
Here I disagree. There are in fact many versions of Calvinism out there many of which do not glorify wealth or the rich. There are a lot of very humble and socially active Calvinists in Germany, Switzerland and the Netherlands which are completely different from the kind of money-centered crazies you see in the USA.
To finish with the abrahamic religions, It looks that you see many forms of judaism (Kavala? correct me if I’m wrong) as similar kinds of man-made abominations against God. ¿There are respectable traditions in Judaism? I, for one, think of the folks of Neturei Karta with the utmost respect.
Couple of things here: first, ALL modern versions of what is called “Judaism” nowadays are descended from the sect of the Pharisees; second, this “rabbinical phariseism” is nothing more than an anti-Christianity which has its roots in the end of the first century AD with saw the de-facto substitution of the Torah (Old Testament) with the Talmud which, itself, was later further developed into a book of black magic: the Kabalah. The creators of the Talmud went as far as to produce a new version of the Torah which they amended to suppress the numerous references to Christ in it. This text became known as the “Masoretic” text which, amazingly, the Western Christian denominations still use nowadays even though the real original text of the Bible (called “the Septuagint”) still exists today (Orthodox Christians only use that one) and even though a pretty decent translation (called the “Vulgate”) also exists. All this is to say that what we call “Judaism” today is really a Satanic anti-Christianity which is centered on a) racist self-worship and b) a hatred for the rest of mankind which is declared as “inferior”.
Check either one of these two books on this topic:
http://www.amazon.com/Judaism-Discovered-Anti-Biblical-Self-Worship-Superstition/dp/0970378459/
http://www.amazon.com/Judaisms-Strange-Gods-Revised-Expanded/dp/0970378483/
(some of the views of the author are not my cup of tea, but the research he has put into this topic is quite amazing).
to be continued
continued:
Now, a little group of *real* old Jews still exists. They are called the Karaites and they never accepted the innovation (really “substitution”) of the Torah by the Talmud. Though they do not believe that Christ was the Messiah, they show no signs of this viceral anti-Christianity of the rabbis. So I would see them as a very respectable tradition in Judaism.
As for the Neturei Karta – I know only of their political stance which I respect. I do not know what their theology really teaches. So if they accept the common humanity of all men and if they only see the election of the Jewish people as Chosen of God as a higher call to obey God, then I have no problem at all with that. But if they also subscribe to the racist nonsense of the rest of the rabbis about being superior to the rest of mankind in essence, called to rule over us in the name of God, and all the rest of the racists insanity Maimonides, Luria, Karo and all the other founders of modern “Judaism” subscribe to, then I reject such views. I would love to interview one of their rabbis, but so far I had no success doing so.
Why the evil in the world? Could you summarize the thought of your church about that?
Wow! You could write 100 PhDs on that topic but the short answer is this: evil is a necessary potential consequence of the fact that man has been created free. In itself evil has no real “existance” as such – it is the consequence of an act of will by a spirit or a person. Is that horribly short answer ok or do you want me to expand it?
Cheers,
The Saker
@Anonymous1207:Could these ships provide the precise location of US and Israeli ships in the Med, to help the SAA aim its Chinese and Russian missiles?
First my apologies for missing your comment until now. I am very sorry.
To answer your question: yes, I am confident that these ships have the computers to exchange targeting solutions with other platforms (ship, aircraft, etc.). I am not so sure that the Syrians have what it takes to receive it, if only because that kind of stuff tends to be weapon specific. Also, if the Russians begin illuminating US aircraft with a tracking radar signal, the Americans are going to see that and get very unhappy about it very fast. I don’t think that the Russians can afford doing that.
But yes, in theory, these ships have the capability to fuse the data they have with aircraft and submarines creating a single image of the battlefield and using all the available weapons systems as one big united multi-part weapon system.
HTH and sorry again for the late reply.
Cheers,
The Saker
I don’t know much of anything about military intelligence, capabilities and technology. You’ve educated me well with this, and I thank you.
I’ll confess that I had thought the chief reason for the Russian ships moving to the Mediterranean was to deter Erdogan from getting any ideas about trying to block the Bosphorus or something.
You’ve saved me from ignorance again !
@Sky:You’ve saved me from ignorance again !
Not for certain! I have no special access to any privileged information and all I can offer are some guesses as to what is going on. And I am sure that over the years I got many many things wrong too :-)
Kind regards,
The Saker