These three additional links support Andrew’s thesis that the US is turning on Turkey:
US says Turkey downed Russian jet while Syrian airspace
Retired US airforce general says Turkey broke international law
The West wants Turkey out.
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Why is the US Hanging Turkey Out to Dry?
By Andrew KORYBKO (USA)
Turkey’s shooting down of the Russian anti-ISIL aircraft was an unprecedentedly direct aggression against Moscow that trumps even the tense and hostile militarism of the Old Cold War era. The world stands on edge in the immediate aftermath of this attack, with tabloid-esque commentators warning that the beginning of World War III awaits. President Putin, for his part, has been much more measured in responding to the incident, but still couldn’t contain his shock at having received this “stab in the back delivered by accomplices of the terrorists.”
The question now comes down to how Russia will respond to what happened, but perhaps even more important for observers to ponder is why the US is unofficially distancing itself from its ally’s aggression. Despite both NATO and Obama giving full backing to Turkey’s fateful decision, Reuters has quoted an anonymous American military official that purposely leaked that the Russian plane was downed while over Syrian airspace, basing the assessment on heat signature detection. This raises questions about why the US is playing both sides of the fence – on one hand, publicly supporting Turkey, while on the other, strategically releasing information that conflicts with Turkey’s official depiction of events.
The Setup:
This dichotomy is suggestive of a Machiavellian plan whereby the US manipulates both Turkey and Russia into behaving according to what it has already forecast as their most likely responses, knowing full well that these could be guided into supporting grander American strategic interests. For starters, the US likely intimated to Erdogan that not only does he have the ‘legal’ right to shoot down any Russian aircraft he chooses, but that the US would actually prefer for him to take this course of action sooner than later. This is reminiscently similar to how the US put Sakkashvili up to bombing Tskhinval and invading South Ossetia – it may not have directly issued an official, on-paper order for this to occur, but it left no ambiguity as to how it wanted its proxy to act in each situation.
According To Plan:
For the most part, this explains the public pronouncements of NATO and the US’ support for Turkey’s actions, and it also goes a long way in soothing Erdogan’s nerves and reassuring him that he did the right thing. The predicted aftereffect of the plane’s downing was an immediate deterioration of Russian-Turkish relations, with the full consequences potentially affecting the diplomatic, military, economic, and energy spheres. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov cancelled his upcoming trip to Turkey and advised Russian tourists to refrain from visiting the country due to the terrorism level being similar to Egypt’s. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has spoken about the possibility of barring Turkish companies from the Russian market and cancelling planned nuclear and gas projects with the country.
All of these prospective actions are fully justifiable and grounded in the self-respect that Russia feels in not aiding what has proven itself to be a militantly hostile state no matter the economic stakes involved, but at the same time, one can’t help but wonder whether this is exactly what the US wanted. There’s no doubt that Russia would react this way, as even a cursory glance of its potential ‘response toolkit’ indicates that these are the most likely to be taken amidst any deterioration of relations. Therefore, it can’t be discounted that the US put Erdogan up to shooting down the Russian jet precisely to provoke the predictable Russian response in threatening to cancel its forthcoming energy projects with Turkey, the core of the strategic partnership between the two. If this is the case, and it certainly seems likely, then it shows exactly how far the US is willing to go to make sure that Russian energy (and subsequently, all of the soft power and multipolar advantages that come with it) doesn’t enter the Balkans through the Turkish Stream megaproject, likely because it understands the transformative impact that this would eventually have on the entire region.
The Curveball:
Thus far, everything seems reasonable and well within the realm of predictability, but the curveball comes with the Reuters revelation that an unnamed American military source is essentially saying that the Russian position is justified. Unexpectedly, it now seems as though the US is also playing to Russia’s side to an extent, and this raises questions about what it really wants. After all, it’s been proven beyond any doubt that American-supplied TOW anti-tank missiles were used to down the Russian rescue helicopter that attempted to retrieve the two pilots. With this indisputable evidence of indirect American aggression against Russia, it certainly is a curious fact that the US establishment would purposely leak a statement saying that the Turkey downed the Russian plane in Syrian airspace, and basically take Russia’s side on this behind the scenes.
Playing The Kurdish Card:
Explaining this diplomatic twist requires knowledge about the popular response that Russian citizens and global supporters worldwide are requesting to Turkey’s aggression. They quite reasonably propose that Russia intensify its arms shipments to anti-ISIL Kurdish fighters, with the wink-and-a-nod approval that some of them would be siphoned off to the PKK and be used against the Turkish military. This is an effective and pragmatic plan, and in reality, it actually doesn’t even require a policy shift from Moscow because support is already being rendered to some Kurdish groups as part of their joint cooperation in the anti-ISIL struggle. The Kurdish Insurgency hasn’t gone away since Erdogan unwittingly unearthed it this summer as an electioneering tool, and the fact that it’s still going strong even after the elections has scared him so much that he might have been the one who ordered the recent assassination attempt against pro-Kurdish HDP co-chairman Selahattin Demirtas. Thus, if Russia chooses to inflict an asymmetrical response to Turkey by beefing up its indirect support for the PKK and other Turkish-based anti-government Kurds or disrupting Blue Stream gas supplies in order to provoke an intensified rebellion, then it could certainly inflict a heavy amount of strategic damage to Erdogan and increase the likelihood either of a military coup in Turkey (explained more in detail as part of a different article accessible here) and/or the creation of an independent Kurdistan.
That being said, the US has traditionally been the out-of-regional power that has the greatest interest in Kurdistan, seeing the possible state as a ‘geopolitical Israel’ from which it can simultaneously exert influence on the rump portions of Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. The strategic trajectory of a theorized Kurdish state has been complicated by the anti-ISIL campaign, however, since many Kurds have shown themselves to be pragmatic in cooperating with Russia and Iran against this shared threat. The positive multipolar cooperation that each of these countries has engaged in with the Kurds challenges the US’ planned hegemony over them and their territory, and it thus means that any forthcoming independent Kurdish political entity could theoretically go either towards the multipolar or the unipolar camps. At this point in time, and given all of the dynamic military and diplomatic developments of the past couple of months, the loyalty of a future Kurdish state (no matter if its boundaries are confined only to present-day Turkey and/or Iraq) is totally up for grabs, and it’s impossible to accurately forecast which way it will go.
Kurdish women’ ‘Peshmerga’ batallions cause horror among ISIS gangs in Syria.
Kurdish women’ ‘Peshmerga’ batallions cause horror among ISIS gangs in Syria.
The strategic ambiguity that this entails means a few things to the US and Russia. For the US, it indicates that the time is now for it to bunker down and support Kurdistan’s independence before it loses the strategic initiative to Russia, which might be moving in this direction (whether formally or informally) out of grand geopolitical spite for Turkey. Moscow, as was just mentioned, seems inclined to hit Ankara where it hurts most, and that’s through supporting the Kurdish Insurgency in one way or another. However, it’s not yet known how far this would go, and whether Russia would pursue this strategy as a form of short-term vengeance or if it would resolutely go as far in recognizing Kurdish Independence if it could ever be de-facto actualized. Of course, Russia wouldn’t do anything that could endanger the territorial integrity of its Syrian, Iraqi, and Iranian allies, but if the Turkish-based Kurds contained their ambitions solely within the borders of Russia’s historical rival, then it might be able to rectify itself with this reality, especially if they even refrain from legal independence and instead seek a sort of broadly de-facto independent federative or autonomous status within a unified Turkey (which could only realistically be brought about by an intensified insurgency and/or a coup in Ankara).
Joining Hands For Kurdistan:
Having explained all of this, it’s now clear that a remarkable convergence of strategic interests has developed between the US and Russia focusing on Turkish-administered Kurdistan. Understanding the changing calculations that Russia may now be having towards this topic as a response to Turkey’s aggression against it, one can’t necessarily preclude the possibility that the Reuters leak was actually a strategic overture to Russia. Washington might be sending a signal that it wants to speak to Moscow about ways to cooperate in this regard, knowing that each of them possibly have an interest now in seeing the proto-state rise to the fore of the global arena. A shared understanding has likely developed by now that a New Cold War competition for Kurdistan’s loyalty could be fought after the entity is legally formalized (whether as an independent state or a de-facto independent sub-state entity modeled off of the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq), and that the two Great Powers need to put aside some of their differences in joining hands to see this happen first.
Such a strong signal could have been discretely and secretly communicated to Russia via secure diplomatic and intelligence channels, but the reason it was so publicly broadcast via Reuters, the global newswire service, is because the US also wants to send a signal to Turkey as well. Despite taking its side on the matter before the global eye, the US is also “stabbing its ally in the back”, to channel President Putin, by purposely leaking the information that the Russian jet was shot down over Syrian airspace. It’s not news that the US has been unhappy with Erdogan for not behaving more submissively in the past and refusing to blindly go along with the previous plans to invade Syria (rendered useless after Russia’s anti-terrorist military intervention there), so it might be trying to convey the message it’s had enough of his games and is now playing their own in return. Of course, the US has always been manipulating Turkey ever since it joined NATO and allowed the Americans to operate out of Incirlik airbase, but this time, the treachery is being taken to a higher level by implicitly throwing out suggestions to Russia, Turkey’s new foe (and only because the US manipulated Turkey into taking aggressive action against it), that it might want to team up in undermining Ankara’s control over its volatile southeast.
Concluding Thoughts:
It can safely be assumed that the US influenced Turkey into shooting down the Russian jet over Syrian airspace, predicting quite accurately that this would immediately lead to the deterioration of ties between the two states. An elementary forecast of the specific counter-measures that Russia may take stipulates that these will likely relate to the diplomatic, economic, and energy sectors, which is just what the US wants. Because of Turkey’s aggression against Russia, the strategic partnership between the two is now broken (although not necessarily irreversibly), and Ankara has become the fourth and perhaps most geopolitically significant member of the anti-Russian Intermarum coalition. Furthermore, Turkish Stream looks to be indefinitely put on hold, thus delaying Russia’s game-changing pivot to the Balkans. While the ‘unintended’ consequence of the crisis has been Russia’s foreseeable and absolutely legitimate decision to deploy the S-400 SAM system to Syria, this in a way also plays to the manipulated Turkish-Russian rivalry that the US wanted to produce in order to solidify the completion of the Intermarum project and simultaneously counter Russia’s growing influence in the Mideast.
The reaction that no one could have predicted, however, is the US purposely leaking comments to Reuters that support the Russian version of events, namely, that the anti-terrorist jet was shot down while flying over Syrian airspace. This completely conflicts with what the US and NATO have said in public, but it shows that the US has had enough time to game out the plane-shooting scenario well in advance, and that it’s playing a sinister divide-and-conquer game against Turkey and Russia. Put in the position where its decision makers are scrambling for responses to the unprecedented aggression against them, Russia can now more easily be led into supporting the Kurdish struggle for sovereignty (whether formally independent or de-facto so) in Turkey, which coincides with one of the US’ premier geopolitical projects.
From an American perspective, a divided Turkey is doubly useful for its grand strategic designs, as the large pro-NATO Turkish military would remain mostly intact, while the US could gain a major base for force projection (both hard and soft) right in between some of the most important states in the region. It can’t, however, go fully forward with this project unless it has the support of the diplomatic leader of the multipolar world, Russia, otherwise Kurdistan will be just as illegitimate as Kosovo is and might not even come to geopolitical fruition if Moscow and Tehran work to stop it.
Seen from the Russian standpoint, the US’ intimations actually seen quite attractive. An increase of Russian support to anti-ISIL Kurdish fighters would be a plausibly deniable but strategically obvious way to funnel weapons and equipment to anti-Turkish PKK insurgents. Weakening Turkey from within would be a strong asymmetrical response to a country that has lately been a major thorn in Moscow’s side, and it might create the conditions either for a military coup against Erdogan, a divide between him and Davutoglu (which could be used to Russia’s diplomatic advantage so long as the constitution remains unchanged and Davutoglu legally remains more powerful than Erdogan), or a weakening of Erdogan and a tempering of his anti-Russian and anti-Syrian positions.
Importantly, the emergence of an independent or semi-independent Kurdish entity in Turkey could create a tempting piece of geopolitical real estate in the New Cold War, but of course, it would then be contested between the multipolar and unipolar worlds. Still, however, it would represent a positive multipolar development in the Mideast, since under the present state of affairs, the entirety of Turkish territory is under unipolar control. If a large chunk of it suddenly became the object of competition between both blocs, then it would definitely signify a strategic advancement at the expense of unipolarity. Of equal importance, this would also significantly impact on the Turkish state and whatever government is in power by that time, and it could possibly make it more amenable to returning to the previously pragmatic relationship with Russia and perhaps even resurrecting Turkish Stream.
Therefore, Russia surprisingly has nothing to do lose and everything to gain by covertly supporting the Kurdish cause in Turkey, no matter if it’s full-out independence or relatively more restrained autonomy, and even if this is objective is shared by the US and done in semi-coordination with it. Turkey would immediately be put on the defensive (although it could try desperately responding by supporting Tatar terrorists in Crimea), the multipolar world have a chance at competing for the loyalty of an ultra-strategically positioned entity, and the consequences that this has for the Turkish government (whether it remains the same or is changed via a [military] coup) could recreate the political conditions for Turkish Stream’s feasibility.
Few things to think about:
The US has different factions, and the old military is different than the CIA, or the neocons, so mixed signals may come from mixed elements in the US power structures.
Recall the old physics book diagrams with different forces on an object pulling and pushing in different direction and doing vector additions to find the resultant movement of the object. Figuring out US actions needs similar vector addition to find the resultant — which can shift along with shifts of power within the US — and with elections on the horizon there will be a lot of jockeying for position.
If Turkey is weakened this goes along with total dominance by the us hegemony, where no other country would be able to challenge US power anywhere. Erdogan’s playing for more power is not in keeping with that, especially if he seems to be getting or having thoughts of some independence.
Many elements in the US want to see relations between Turkey and Russia weakened, and Russia weakened in general, and if Turkey as a projection of Russian influence is weakened then it will make a poor tool for Russian force projection.
The United States Government is by far the largest and most complex institution in the world. The rivalries between agencies are legendary. The CIA and DIA have always been at odds, but all these groups have to compete for congressional and black budget, so what’s to like. Considering how many different alphabet agencies exist plus the armed services, it’s a real wonder that they can get along at all to accomplish anything, but somehow they do. It’s funny when they whistleblow on each other, like CIA Snowden blowing the whistle on the NSA. The latter must have been wincing as they lost budget to CIA again.
Could this be a NATO trick, the provoke Russia by shooting down a Russian jet, Russia of course becomes furious and brings in S400, ready to fire at any Turkish jet.
A few weeks later or less, Turkey will begin violating Syrian airspace with their jets, with the goal of getting Russia to shoot one down, as soon as Russia does this, Turkey will invoke article 5 of NATO, declaring that they need protection and all NATO countries will be forced to aid Turkey..
This will be especially potent if Russia fires a missile at a Turkish jet that violates Syrian airspace, but the missile does not hit the Turkish jet until it is in Turkish territory, so the Turkish jet crashes inside Turkey’s territory.
Turkey could immediately start a ground offensive in Syria using their full might, saying Russia shots down planes in their country, Turkey could then destroy the Russian military base and demand that all other NATO members protect them. Russia would be unlikely to be able to resist the Turkish army as Russia only has a fairly small contingent in Syria.
Syria would be lost, the terrorists/NATO would win, and Russia would have to decided to declare war on NATO or not.
Turkey is already massing troops at the Syrian border.
http://news.antiwar.com/2015/11/26/turkey-masses-tanks-on-syria-border-amid-rising-russia-tensions/
Turkey invoking art. 5 does allows NATO countries to come to it’s aid but does not force anyone. and Turkey proving such a downing of a jet is an attack on Turkey is problematic. For Turkey to destroy a Russian military base is even more problematic, and Russia could respond very quickly, including with cruise missiles. Such a war on Russia would end very badly for Turkey, and if NATO forces got involved it would not go well for them either. This is, essentially, Turkey trying to start WW3, and it’s doubtful anyone but basement crazies in the US, or NATO members, want that. Russia would not need to declare war on anyone anyway — just beat off anyone invading Syria, which she is capable of doing.
You do know that Russia has a first use nuclear doctrine?
But it wont get that far.. For one, the force that turkey can muster can easily be destroyed with what Russia has inside Syria without breaking a sweat.. Don’t forget the Russian long range missile carries as well as cruise missiles.. And if Turkey starts massing formations for a massive attack, Russia will also get prepared for that. Don’t forget, The SAA is not a push over that Israel fought in 1973.. All the fat has been worked out in the last 5 years. Only truly patriotic Syrians exist in the army now. Almost most are not well trained they are no push overs and I bet there are more and better trained Syrian special forces than nato combined.. By the time turkey got very far, those FABS would come into play.. 44ton thermobarbrics.. The war would be over faster than it got started.. Maybe a couple of days at the most. Knowing that Russia will absolutely use nuclear weapons if Nato got involved, will they? Now if the US got involved it would be different but then the nukes get used far sooner and then you are not looking at tactical mini nukes but strategic city busters.. Erdo can poster all he wants.. huff and puff all the while his turkmen terrorists are wiped out. But nato wants to live,, If they can plunder Russia and live better, they would be all for it.. But not while Putin is in power.. getting bricks off the ground is paramount so nato cant keep nicking Russia and making it weak.. They are still at it..
No, Russia has a small conteigent inside Syria that certainly cannot take on the Turkish army, Turkey is the most powerful country in NATO excluding USA
Not trying to insult you, Liz, but you don’t appear to be thinking logically. How do you suppose Turkey would destroy the Russian air base in Latakia, regardless of the size of their army? March a million men over the border, and over 200km of mountainous terrain, all while avoiding regular Syrian army and IS? And that “small Russian contingent” consists of about 1000 marines for security, but you’re forgetting a bunch of bombers able to routinely hit 400 targets in one day. Do you think they would just be sitting idle on the runways? Never mind the long range bombers used a week or so ago, and the Caspian see fleet with cruise missiles so neatly demonstrated recently.
Only chance for Turks to attempt an attack on Russians in Syria is an air raid, and that would be noticed the moment they took off. There are few Russian ships in the Mediterannean too, with some serious air detection and defence capability.
Forget the attack on Latakia air base, not happening. Besides, Turkish jet could always be hit by a Syrian crew operating their brand new S-400 ;)
The likelihood of a real shooting war between Turkey and Russia is slim, and the chance that the Turks would or could take out the Russian contingent in Latakia is none.
As +Mikie points out, that base is more than a stone’s throw from Turkey and it would take some time to mount an infantry assault on it. All the while the S-400 would keep Syrian airspace closed, allowing the Russian air force and/or cruise missiles free range to annihilate invading ground based forces. The only way such a Turkish assault could ever take the relatively small Russian contingent would be with full NATO air-cover. Even this prospect ever came to fruition, the Russians could simply get in their planes and withdraw.
But NATO isn’t going to get into a shooting war with Russia. Not over Turkey, not now, not ever. Even after the downing of the Su-24, with full official US cover, there were anonymous leaks to the press from other NATO members less than impressed by Turkey’s explanation. Germany and France wouldn’t back Turkey against Russia if push came to shove. The only way NATO would get involved is if Russia mounted a real attack of a military installation in Turkey proper. And let’s face it, Russia simply would never do that.
As Mr. Korybko notes, the real crux here is Kurdistan. The AKP and the rival nationalists view any manifestation of Kurdish autonomy as veritable kryponite. So if you want to hurt Turkey, this is where their gonads lie. Undoubtedly Russia knows this in spades, so while I expect ‘carrots’ brandished around publicly (economic sanctions, energy projects), the ‘stick’ to be wielded by Moscow will be very quiet but substantial military and political support of the PKK, HDP, and Syrian Kurds. As stated above, this makes the US and Russia strange bedfellows. In turn, this makes actual US support of Turkey in a hypothetical hot war with Russia even less likely.
The name of the NATO’s game is provocation both in Donbass and Syria. Russia wins the game (or at least minimises losses) by NOT being provoked.
My suggestion: handle the Turkish provocation with the same restrained, cool-headed determination that Putin displayed in Donbass.
Seems clear to me that the West is trying to split away Turkey from Russian influence, trade, energy deals etc.
If Erdogan has offered a face to face meeting, I would control my rage and take him up on it. The best way NOT to fall into the US trap is to a) give vent to Russia’ legitimate outrage but b) to quietly go about mending fences with the Turks.
Getting into a war with Turkey is exactly what that bastard Zbigniew Brzezinski wants. Don’t give him the satisfaction of dragging Russia into a conflagration with Turkey a la Afghanistan.
If a war does break out with Turkey, Russia will be fighting on two fronts in Ukraine and Syria and its armed forces will be split and thus weakened. Russia doesn’t need that.
I see your point,but don’t agree with it. I don’t see how Putin could meet with Erdogan unless Erdogan made an apology first (which I don’t see him doing).He is playing a propaganda game with Putin. He is saying “see I’m trying to be friendly,but big bad Vlad is pouting and won’t make up”.The tone of his statement on the meeting was all arrogance. And I’m sure that made the Russians even madder. He even demanded that Russia “apologize to him” over the shoot down. That is a “rubbing salt in the wounds” type of move.He should count himself lucky if he lives through this situation (and certainly if his son does.I put that at 50/50 odds).
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/11/russian-bear-vs-neo-ottoman-turkey.html
Russian Bear vs Neo-Ottoman Turkey: A military comparison
[…]
It’s not even close, and Russia can move very quickly if it has to — and this in not counting the quality of weapons and troops, or the substantial electronic and nuclear advantages. Don’t think that if you step on a bear’s paw that the rest of the bear is not attached to it.
Russia 1088 miles from Turkey — flight time of about 2 1/4 hours for commercial traffic. That’s from Moscow to Ankara, but distance between borders is much closer — maybe 250 to 500. If Turkey made war on Russia in Syria one should not expect, of course, that the only fighting would be in Syria, but even Syria is not that much further — about a day’s drive away.
Syria has alread been hit by missiles in the Caspian.and Russia has navy with missiles in the Mediterranean.
But even just Russian forces in Syria are very powerful and it would take a fair bit of time to deal with them — time for reinforcements to arrive, and perhaps allied forces as well. Syrian military is already there of course. Turkey trying to wage war on Russia would be suicidal.
Are you joking? It is one of the weakest and most pathetic countries in nato used as cannon fodder.. The US used them as cannon fodder in asia because the turks were suicidal and that came in handily to keep American casualties down as they could be used as shock troops.
Egypt the most powerful arab country.. how long did it take Israel to make them cry uncle? They have some minor terrorist problem in the Sinai and that mighty powerful army cant do a thing about it. I would not think Turkey is far above them.. Then again saw what the 1million man US trained and equipped mighty Iraq army did a couple of years ago.. That IS super power is being beaten mostly by militia.. not an army.. So much for US training, US equipment.. Now nato leaves Afghanistan driven off by a real bunch of goat herders..
Interesting that USA and Germany are withdrawing their missile defense systems from Turkey “for upgrade” with no date for return.
Another hint?
Liz you bring up a very crucial point.
A Turkish invasion of Syria is a very real possibility and will pose a major problem for Russia.
The invasion will not be directly at the coastal base but will come from North Aleppo between the 2 Kurdish enclaves. That is where all of Turkeys tanks are massed.
The question is, what will Russia do about it? There is noway the SAA can do Jack so it leaves it to Russia airpower try an stop the invasion.
The funny thing is that had Turkey invaded last week they would probably have got away with it but now you would have to think that Russia will/ may respond.
It would be fireworks and how much destruction is done before the US can cool things down is anyones guess.
Its not just air power in the russian options, but long range cruise missiles too. Which means that Turkey will not be able to construct any stationary military camp/structure/fortification in Syria.
I couldn’t disagree more with this assessment. The S-400 is the single most advanced surface-to-air system on the planet, hands-down. It is now operational. If the Turks invaded, it would be without air-cover thanks to the S-400. While it is easy for the Takfiris to hide among civilians and in mosques, columns of invading Turks don’t have that option. They would be sitting ducks to the Russian air force and cruise missiles.
The only way to overcome the S-400 would be with sheer numbers, i.e. with NATO air-cover. The NATO treaty DOES NOT cover wars of aggression, which no one could argue that such an invading force would be anything but. The US might, and I stress might, go along with it, but the rest of the alliance (Germany, France, Italy, Spain) would not. The alliance can barely hold together a sanctions regime against Russia, that they would support a Turkish war of aggression against Syria and Russia is out of the question.
The only prospect for NATO getting involved is if Russia and Syria officially attack Turkey, false flags wouldn’t cut it when WWIII is at stake. And such a Russian or Syrian attack just isn’t in the cards.
Kurds: chaos on the border of Russia is the goal
1.there is no way that the USA and Russia are going to cooperate with anything dealing with the Kurds. They support different factions within the Kurdish political realm first of all. The Kurds see how Daesh is being played by the US etc. and they are very wary of the historical phenomenon known as ” everybody gets together and kills the Kurds”.
2. Erodogan, his prime minister, and his head of intelligence are a gruesome threesome united in more ways than one. The military is trained and sponsored by the West so if there is to be any “coup” it will come from NATO/CIA agents within the military for purposes of disruption and, back to my first point, chaos.
3. One must understand that there is a shadow government which has an agenda and operates like a fish in the watery levels of US bureaucracy to influence policy and they are not into touchy-feelie relationships with Russia about anything whatsoever. In fact they are quite outspoken and publish their plans in the Wall Street Journal often and loudly. The go-to-guy which they send to Russia is Kerry and they view him as a buffoon because he still plays with them after being “swift-boated:”
4. For Russia not to expect another dagger to plunge would be a mistake. So to engage in speculations about peaceful resolutions over Turkey/Kurds during a year when these same elements plan to solidify their control of the United States is to engage in dangerous naivete .
5. The apology owed Russia is from Obama who said that the Turkomens in N. Syria had every right to “defend” themselves. By brutally killing a helpless parachuting Russian pilot? By calling in the Turkish air force onto Syria territory in order to do so? What the neocons are establishing is the “right” to attack Russia when the Russians are in combat with the “wrong” anti-Assad forces i.e. whichever ones they decide are “wrong”. It is a slippery slope greased by these elements and it will continue.
“For Russia not to expect another dagger to plunge would be a mistake.” – Exactly, for this reason Russia must prepare for the worst and should not delay in meting retribution to Turkey.
Those two courses of action are in conflict. Which are you going to pick?
I do not see contradiction.
Welll, not a true contradiction, but a conflict. The “worst” is the threat of global, perhaps nuclear, war. Preparing involves trying to arrange for it not to happen, because the reality of global war is not one that can have a survivable outcome. Immediate hard retribution to Turkey increases tensions, adds to the momentum of the situation, drifts it in directions that could be uncontrollable–much like the drift before WW I. This increases the threat of “the worst” rather than decreasing it. Retribution to Turkey must be calculated and calibrated very carefully if it is to avoid this problem.
In my opinion, the US invites Russia to act exactly the way the US does: covertly support separatist groups with dubious means (case in point here: Kurdish people in Turkey). This is an attempt to kill the high moral ground Russia is operating on. In case of abuse, this high moral ground vanishes in thin air and it would be extremely difficult to get it back.
Secondly, if Turkey was played, it resembles the US signalling to Saddam Hussein that Kuwait would be his own business (i.e. we don’t care what you do there). Of course, this was an outright lie to get the pretext for the first Iraq war.
Russia insists on an official apology by Turkey’s government and is certainly right in putting on hold the economic partnership. However, if Turkey apologizes – Why not by sacking the president and/or prime minister? – Russia should consider normalizing its relationship with Turkey.
I don’t understand your reference to the “moral high ground” that Russia might lose by supporting the PKK or its Syrian affiliate, the YPG? Doesn’t the most egalitarian, least sectarian force in the region, at least among those forces that have any military capacity, deserve support? Or does the “moral high ground” involve defending existing governments against uprisings by oppressed ethnic and linguistic/nationality groups? (Ukraine, anyone?) If that’s the “moral high ground”, I prefer the moral valley.
to name names in the Great Game : interesting article by Engdahl:
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article43544.htm
Looks to me like a win-win situation for the US, as *any* form of deterioration of relations between Turkey and Russia is very much welcome in Washington.
Of course the simultaneous pretense of being angered by Turkey’s “irresponsible excesses” and acting as if they may “hang it out to dry” is also a useful show to encourage Russia to take drastic measures, and further control Turkey.
Machiavelli at his best.
You must be kidding. All US power brokers are dashing around like headless chicken these days. And even if they would stumble upon a win-win situation, as you suggest, they wouldn’t be able to recognize it.
NASA wouldn’t waste time declaring it the universe biggest black hole, while Obama, never impressed with anything, would simply ignore it.
The CIA folks, of course, those crafty bastards, would gleefully rub their hands together, thinking, here we have it, the perfect staging ground for our next mega false flag operation.
It was not about Turkey. Turkey carried out approved plan to put Russia on collision course with NATO, so there would be no chance for some NATO members (like France) joining Russian lead coalition. It’s true that there are different factions in the US. There are many indications that one of this faction is that of Obama who tries to free himself from liberal hawks and neocons. Obama head several occasions to finish off Syria (like poison gas issue in 2013) but he dragged his feet and even used Putin’s help to not cross the red line he drew himself in 2013. To save the budding coalition Putin seems to be giving up on some parts of his original plan. He allegedly promised Hollande to intensify attacks on ISIS at expense of fighting other anit-Assad forces. However, Turkey must be dealt with to save Russia’s and Putin’s face. Economic sanctions will not suffice unless they would bring Erdogan government down. After that Erdogan and his family would be a free game. However it does not seem likely that economic sanctions would have that big an impact. Obviously Kurdish issue is important and Russia can use Kurds and it would get Israel’s approval but Assad and Iran would be ambivalent. During Chechen war when Turkey was trying to meddle, Russia started helping Kurds and that made Turkey to back off. The most important thing Russia could do is to impose strict no-fly zone on large part of Syria territory including regions near Turkey border. This would help Kurds immensely and would give Russia opportunity to take down few Turkish planes. However, it is not certain that Russia has sufficient means to enforce such a no-fly zone. Turkey probably would unleash its anger on Kurds in Irak where Russia no legal means and also has limited abilities. Also effective closure of Turkish Syrian border would be ideal to cut off Turkey from meddling in Syria.
Well too late…
November 27, 2015 Erdogan Establishes No-Fly Zone Over Syria
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2015/11/erdogan-establishes-no-fly-zone-over-syria-.html#comments
what kind of nonsense is that ?
if there is NFZ over Syria, Russian fighter planes would not be flying over it.
The headline is an ironic one; it means that Turkey has succeeded in establishing a no-fly zone in Syria, but it is a Russian no-fly zone from which Turkey is now excluded.
why do people keep quoting MOA … many time discredited here as disinformation site…
Well for breaking news I don’t have time to verify it but this was on sputnick.. So I used the satire from moa.. This is not really a no fly zone, but means any nato force acts provocatively will be shot down. A clear message..
Luv it . Turkey enforces NFS on itself.
That really is a funny turn of events. :)
Dear Sir
I agree with nothing you wrote because America has not changed and the her goal is as desribed by G. Friedman – to wipe Russia off the map.
Natoist for money
The article is mostly wishful thinking. It might be part of communication to Americans, I hope, because otherwise it really is not that good analysis.
I do not think that anybody wants to wipe Russia off the map. But THEY would be just happy to have another Yeltsyn back in power.
utu
I think yours is wishful thinking, or rather carefully crafted thinking to be planted on this blog. Korybko’s analysis is right on the money.
Of course they want to wipe Russia off the map – having another Eltsin would accomplish exactly that. Give Eltsin another 10 years, and by now RF would have been broken down into 10 or more puppet states.
Or there is a much, much, much simpler explanation: Erdogan ordered the shooting down on his own bat, in the expectation that he could then hide behind Obama and NATO so there wouldn’t be any consequences, and at the same time look tough for the domestic audience. His primary purpose would be to try and stave off Assad’s regaining control over the Turkey-Syria border, through which his looting of Syrian oil and antiquities comes and through which he sends terrorists into Syria. His action would have shocked Obama, who – in order to stave off domestic criticism of “abandoning an ally” – would make supportive noises, but make it clear that Erdogan was on his own. Obama does not actually want a nuclear war with Russia, after all – and he knows, even if Erdogan doesn’t, that what this means is disaster, not for Russia, but for the “moderate” cannibals he and Erdogan have been openly supporting (just as they’ve been supporting ISIS covertly). It’s not that America is hanging Turkey out to dry, it’s just that America wants no part of Erdogan’s stunt.
I agree with you that Turkey might have acted on their own, but not to hide behind NATO. Quite the opposite: to get kicked out of NATO. This is just a theory, but maybe the Turks realize that their commitment to NATO, and NATO’s inevitable confrontation with Russia will make Turkey a warzone. Maybe Erdogan would love nothing more than to join in the Russia-China new silk road. But he can’t because Turkey is part of NATO. Maybe this is a deal between Erdogan and Putin.
I question the immediate accusation by Putin himself. The usual response would have been to preach calm and “investigate together with our western partners”, and blah, blah blah. There is always an excuse that can be given to the public. But in this case Russia went into full verbal attack of a NATO country. Quite out-of-the-ordinary when you compare it to every other “event” that has befallen Russia in the last few years.
I respect your opinion, but I must disagree………..funding from EU, NATo so important to them, to keep up the militaristic front.
Bill Purkayastha, I don’t agree with you point that Turkey acted on its own. Putin accused the US of leaking Russian bomber’s flight details to Turkey.
In Putin’s own words:
“We told our US partners in advance where, when at what altitudes our pilots were going to operate. The US-led coalition, which includes Turkey, was aware of the time and place where our planes would operate. And this is exactly where and when we were attacked. Why did we share this information with the Americans? Either they don’t control their allies, or they just pass this information left and right without realizing what the consequences of such actions might be. We will have to have a serious talk with our US partners.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-26/russia-releases-video-s-400-sam-battery-deployment-syria-putin-issues-warning-obama
I think we can rule out the ‘Turkey acting on its own’ chance as a most likely reason. I am inclined to think it’s a double game by the US (or a war faction in the US) with Turkey being used to carry out the attack. Mind you Turkey most definitely has its own game in play here. So we have to consider a wide range of independent interests instead of looking for a single simple explanation.
One of several things that still bother me in all this is what could Turkey possibly gain by antagonizing Russia to justify the loss of the Russian economy and partnership. No reasons so far put forward by many esteem analysts and commenters here as well as on other sites give me full satisfaction. Turkey must’ve been given solid promises of a generous compensation for its action. Understanding what has Turkey been promised and by whom might reveal some unexpected exposures.
The best route is for Putin to engage Erdogan. With economical incentives, Turkey or any one will be more incline to engage you constructively. Freeze Turkey out will surly push him in to US’s embrace 100%. For now, he is trying very hard to engage China, Russia, and Iran.
People should not think in term of days, bit in term of long time. Make a total enemy out of Turkey is detrimental to health of RF, and every country nearby.
Engage Erdogan with a huge stick. If the Turks get rid of him and the other terrorists and put some sane people in charge who are trustworthy and interested in the best interests of Turkey rather than themselves and tyranny, then Russia can talk about rebuilding relations.
Putin offered erdo the biggest carrot he could find.. Visa free travel, energy hub, huge trade opportunities, integration with EEU and SCO..
I say get a big stick and whack that gangster on the head with it. In jan visa free is going away.. Energy hug not while the terrorist is in power.. No one will agree in the EEU and SCO to let in islamo fascist nut cases.. This is dead for the next 5 years.. By then Turkey will look like the Ukranian economy or worse..
The latest is that Erdogan ‘regrets’ the shootdown and ‘wishes it hadn’t happened – I’ll bet he does.
Claims from Turkey too that they didn’t know the jet was Russian – if they had, it wouldn’t have been shot down.
NATO has also said Russia did not provide them with the flight plan of the jets. (What to make of this? Does the de-confliction agreement include the provision of Russian flight-plans to NATO? Is this a tacit admission of their involvement? Are they preparing the ground for ‘mistake’ because Russian data proves it was an ambush?)
And finally, news just in – the Kurdish head of the Diyarbakir Bar Association has been shot dead at a protest meeting:
http://www.todayszaman.com/national_diyarbakir-bar-association-president-killed_405573.html
Did he know something about the operation in the region?
Good find Elsi.
An article from Theirry Meyssan confirming the Israeli agenda, as well as the real reason for French ‘support’ for Russia’s anti-terror campaign: the Allen-Wright-Juppe plan continues apace –
http://www.voltairenet.org/article189385.html
The ‘rogue’ element in this plot is the YPD (Syrian Kurds.) It seems un likely they are unaware of the machinations that underpin the ‘Kurdistan’ Zionist project, or that they are likely to trust the Israeli apartheid regime’s ‘friendship.’
Nor can I see them too happy with a Barzani-dictatorship – or any replacement the Zionists have lined up if Barzani proves too ‘independent.’ Goran (rumoured to be CIA-seeded ) don’t really have a mandate and would not attract peshmerga support.
Of course, both the leadership of the YPD and the PKK could, in time-honoured fashion, be ‘bought-off.’ But that leaves a perpetual threat in the form of battle-hardened militias ready to strike at any time.
Certainly the policies of the leading Kurdish political party in Turkey are straight out of the US State Department playbook, with Kurdish issues only adding ‘local flavour.’ They have actually dropped support for this increasingly obvious reason.
The article explains the abandonment of the Yazidis by the HDP prior to the Shingar ‘liberation’. It also confirms my own suspicion that the Barzani clan are in league with Turkey/ISIL and Israel.
Re those rumours of possible Turkish Army rebellion – the arrest of two generals and a colonel who intercepted a Syrian-bound ‘humanitarian’ convoy in 2014 for ‘treason’ could provide a spark:
http://www.todayszaman.com/national_3-senior-commanders-detained-over-stopping-of-mi-t-trucks-reports-say_405582.html
Note: this report carefully omits to mention that arms were indeed found in the intercepted trucks. A crackdown on Erdogan-critical media (journalists of the Cumhurriyet outlet are facing trial for ‘treason’ too ) means even the pro-Gul, anti-Erdogan Today’s Zaman are walking on egg-shells.
Oh, and Erdogan’s son-in-law is now a member of Parliament.
Mr Korybko neglects to delve into the probability that Russia will use international legal means to discipline Turkey’s leaders’s support for Daesh and other terrorist groups–particularly the oil smuggling, which also involves the Iraqi Kurds. Such an avenue is provided by the recent UNSC resolution, and the Turks would only be the first in line.
If I may?
The Kurdish State will be of greatest benefit to Israel- I will in fact be part and parcel of ‘greater Israel’ in the ME
I wrote more then a year ago that Turkey will be destabilized- that NATO had turned it’s back on it’s ally of more then 60 years- Information to those older posts can be accessed in the link below
http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2015/11/carving-turkey-after-nato-roasting.html
Indeed NATO is set to destroy Turkey- but the support for so called Kurdistan among alt media is shocking to me.
The support among msm is understandable, but, among the alternatives I don’t understand it ?
How can alternative thinkers not comprehend the level of death/destruction/human/ environmental and otherwise in order to remake the ME for the benefit, again, of the big powers and Israel. This will not bring peace, only guarantee more war
Why would Russia support the PKK when they are already so well supported by NATO?
Is the author of the piece suggesting that NATO and Russia are working together?
I don’t know?
The creation of Kurdistan? “Still, however, it would represent a positive multipolar development”
It absolutely would not- It would represent a solidification of a unipolar world agenda- one that benefits the Atlanticist/Israel/NATO banker classes- Kurdistan will be NATO’s new southern flank- making life every more miserable for the remaining Arabs
Much rubbish from Andrew- Much rubbish
Indeed. How come the usual suspects are suddenly all lobbying for a free, sovereign, independent, magnificent Kurdistan?
A Kurdistan that could easily solve all the region’s problem. A Kurdistan that would preferably have as few Kurds as possible. And maybe even those few could be encouraged, by one of George Soros’ many humanitarian NGOs, to migrate with their Iraqi and Syrian neighbors to Germany.
Agree with you, unfortunately. If the PKK is being temporarily supported ( i.e. armed) by the CIA/Saudis it is only until they can swing it so the N. Iraqi Kurds can turn on the PKK and do a mass killing a la Indonesia/ Sukarto. Hey, these formulas work so they keep on cranking them out. It is up to us to be smarter and quicker on our feet.
Totally agree Penny.
And besides Kurdistan being a new province of the Hitlerian scope and scale expansion ambition of the Zio colonial carbuncle – two other reports on who benefits from Turkeys loss :
1. Every Israeli newspaper crowing … replacing food imports :
Russia to boycott Turkish goods; ‘We’ll buy from Israel instead’
“…….Russia is preparing a raft of retaliatory economic measures against Turkey after Ankara downed one of its warplanes, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Thursday – with Israel among several countries likely to benefit as Moscow looks for alternative trading and tourism partners……”
2. With Turkey and Egypt out, Israel looks to woo Russian tourists
http://www.timesofisrael.com/with-turkey-and-egypt-out-israel-looks-to-woo-russian-tourists/
Andrew is correct about a wedge (big long shelf?) on South Stream …. and what will this do to regional peace negotiations on Syria?
DeeCT
http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.ca/2015/11/kurdistan-aka-second-israel-ethnic.html
Kurdistan aka ‘second Israel’ as written by a professor emeritus from Israel
” “How should Israelis and Jews approach the idea of an independent Kurdish state? I argue that if there is one state that should support the idea of an independent Kurdistan in Iraq it is Israel, for various moral, political, economic, and strategic reasons.
Indeed, the affinities between these two small non-Arab nations, both of which have been denied the legitimacy to have a state in a region that the Arabs define as belonging solely to them, go a long way back.
These relations, which started in the 1960s and have gone on intermittently until today, have been advantageous for both parties. The Kurds gained military, technological, and humanitarian support while Israel gained access to intelligence. The Kurds also helped Jews who were fleeing from Iraq. However, both parties chose to keep these ties secret because of the expected negative reaction of the surrounding countries.
On the political level, the idea of another non-Arab state coming into existence in the Middle East sends a powerful message to the world and the people of the region that the right to statehood should not be the prerogative of Arabs, Turks, and Persians alone’
This push for the second Israel is tied to a campaign of ethnic cleansing in the Middle east
If interested in all the information access it via the link- thanks :)
Hi Penny,
Good to see you back!
Hi WizOz
glad to see you round these parts too! :)
Thought I needed to visit the extended neighbourhood, but, it’s hard to get away from the blog and regular life stuff-
take care Wiz!
Thanks Penny.
Between Oded Yinon, Wolfowitz, PNAC etc public domain plans, 7 wars in 5 years with an ‘Axis of Evil’ that happens to coincide with Palestine supporting / anti colonisation nations … the wars very strategically ‘Divide and Ruin’ sequence and locations ..
plus many a NYTimes published map of neoSykes Picot – there is zero doubt in my mind about “From the Nile to the Euphrates Tigris” being a very real (understated) objective.
US military utterances about “30yrs to clear IS” sounds more like the entire Pax Judaica colonisation time frame to me … and just how far does that extend I wonder … if I look at the Kiev Knesset … watch so much of Africa being purchased, Zion-ified , recolonized …
Here is a report from 11th Nov 2015 … this week … That absolutely gives me the creeps :
Netanyahu envisions ‘three more Israels’ in Mideast, N. Africa?
“Outlining vision for countering Iranian conventional threat, prime minister curiously suggests ‘Israels’ near Afghanistan, Libya and Yemen.”
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/203220#.VlmgIpuhfrc
Thanks DeeCT
I look forward to the read :)
He wouldn’t mention the “fourth Israel” in Ukraine, Bessarabia, Crimea, up to the Abkhaz coast (with the capital Odessa), would he? It was attempted two times in the past: after the WWI (and Revolution) and after WWII. Both with the backing and support of “the Jewish masses of all countries, in particular the United States”.
The only sane person standing for a position in the next election? This is a rather level headed piece.. Logical and lacking propaganda.. Mater of factual actually and a good read..
Erdogan’s Desperate Move To Save His Terrorist Pals
Jim Jatras, a former US diplomat and foreign policy adviser to the Senate GOP leadership, currently is the only announced prospect for the Republican vice presidential nomination.
Already, there has been some indication that Russians will curtail vacations in Turkey (a popular beach destination, both for price and because Russians don’t need a visa) and of tour companies dropping Turkish vacations packages. Ironically, tourism retaliation primarily will hurt people in Turkish coastal areas, which are generally more secular and Europeanized than central Anatolia – in short, those disadvantaged would be disproportionately Erdogan opponents, not supporters.
Possible military responses include directing intensive airstrikes on Turkmen militia positions [which appear s already to have begun], with the aim of killing Turkish intelligence personnel;
The Turkmen militia, who cooperate with al-Nusra and other jihad groups against the Syrian government and Kurdish militias are an essential asset of Ankara’s in keeping control of the portion of the border abutting Turkey’s Hatay Province. They are controlled by embedded Turkish intelligence officers.
The firing on the parachuting Russian crew, irrefutably recorded on video, is a war crime, for which the Turkish government bears command responsibility and criminal accountability. (One online comment on a video of a “militia” commander claiming “credit” for shooting at the Russians asserts that from his accent he is identifiable as a Turk, presumably an intelligence officer, not a local Syrian Turkman. I am unable to confirm this claim.) [In a further aggravating development, a Russian marine was reported killed when “moderate” Free Syrian Army terrorists shot down a Russian rescue helicopter with a U.S.-supplied TOW missile.]
http://antiwar.com/blog/2015/11/25/erdogans-desperate-move-to-save-his-terrorist-pals/
A Syrian rebel commander who boasted of killing a Russian pilot after Turkey downed Russian jet on Tuesday appeared to be Turkish ultranationalist and a son of former mayor in one of Turkish provinces.
Alparslan Celik, deputy commander of a Syrian Turkmen brigade turned out to be the son of a mayor of a Keban municipality in Turkey’s Elazig province.
He also turned out to be the member of The Grey Wolves ultranationalist group, members of which have carried out scores of political murders since 1970s.
Before he went to Syria he was in Iraq.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymKnnMJjtFA
I suspect Russia will move to classify (as they should) the “Grey Wolves” as a terrorist organization.And the worse mistake the Turkmen could have made was murdering the pilot.They aren’t a “large” minority in Syria.And I wouldn’t be surprised if they were all ethnically cleansed from Syria during or after this war.Before the murder Russia might have stood up for them.And convinced the Syrians to accept them.Even though they have turned traitor to Syria. But now if anything Russia will probably totally agree with the Syrians on them being expelled.So we’ll probably see them all leaving for Turkey as soon as the government begins the recapture of the border regions.
Rule #1 through infinity – Never believe anything a US politician says. Another thing to never forget is that “my fellow Americans” are as smart as Fredo Corleone. They have aligned themselves with perfidious Albion, ZioNAZIs, terrorist Saudi Arabians and the slimy Turks and think they are running things. Why do you think all they can accomplish is chaos?
“Russia can now more easily be led into supporting the Kurdish struggle for sovereignty (whether formally independent or de-facto so) in Turkey, which coincides with one of the US’ premier geopolitical projects.”
Don’t think so. Russia is not into Sovereign country regime change. Quite the opposite.
“Russia is not into Sovereign country regime change”
It’s high past time Russia dismissed bourgeois legality with utmost, supreme contempt. Moreover, what “sovereignty” could possibly be attributed to a bunch of bankrupt Ziocolonies? Let George Soros and his whole entourage rage and fume. It makes me feel absolutely elated whenever it is in real pain.
I think if Turkish Stream is dead, then Russia loses in the Balkans. Unending tension with Turkey over the Kurds is likely to become a geopolitical dead end with little to show for it except the possibility of an inchoate multipolarity expressed in a Kurdistan that might be. Not a good trade-off.
The Empire likes to keep everybody stirred up and off balance, easier to control that way. If I were Putin, I wouldn’t bite. For the long term picture in the Great Game, I would start with diplomatic overtures to Erdogan. The alternative is tension with Turkey for the foreseeable future and the death of Turkish Stream. Infrastructure is critical in the world island. Let’s build that now, we can help out the Kurds later.
I agree with you. I think it is very likely TAF made a mistake when shooting down RAU jet. Turkey has absolute nothing to gain, or interest earned on the incident. If Putin is smart, he will have back channel open with Turkey to resolve this incident soon. After all, for all his fault, Erdoğan is pivoting to east, not west. Work with turkey has a lot more benefit than shut them out.
I predict Russia and Turkey will patch up soon.
Well, the US is just regaining control of Turkey. Erdogan is not loved in Washington (wikileaks shows it). Furthermore, he has been sowing conflict within NATO, by overloading EU countries with refugees and by supporting ISIS. But the internal consistency of NATO is of the utmost importance for the US.
However, I don’t think it is in the strategic interest of Turkey to sever relations with Russia. Turkey engaged Russia — despite the “bad blood” between the two countries, rooted in historic events — because it needed strategic autonomy from the US. If the conflict with Russia is here to stay — and Russia really has other cooperation options, in the region — then Turkey would be fully reduced to a vassal state of the US. But, anyway, the Americans cannot allow Erdogan to put together his Ottoman Empire. Europe and Israel do not need mighty Turkey, again pulling the shots in the Middle East. Hence the Kurdish project, hanging as a Damocles’ sword over Erdogan’s head.
This is somehow reminiscent of the negotiations between Franco and Hitler. To enter the war on the side of Germany — thus loosing the remainder of his strategic autonomy — Franco demanded that the French colonies in Northern Africa be handed over to him. But Hitler could not do that, otherwise he would loose Petain’s collaboration. He was also sure that the Spanish fascists could not even defend themselves from internal insurgencies supported by the Allies. There would be no profit, for Germany, if Spain entered the war in operations other than the closing of the Gibraltar strait. Hence, Spain (and Portugal) could only remain neutral, even though both dictators wanted to help Germany in every way they could.
Realistically, and as much as Hitler wanted it, Spain could not dare to invade Gibraltar, or even provoke an incident with the British navy stationed there; either it would enter the war and become a complete vassal of Germany (Franco would thus score no points for his regime’s propaganda, in return) or be forced to make a U-turn and petition for British forgiveness (upon paying a hefty price, for it — i.e., the loss of the whole Gibraltar strait region to the UK).
Realistically, the ill-advised blow-up of the Russian warbird means Erdogan now has to quit his Otoman project, if he wants the strategic autonomy of Ataturk’s country to survive.
Gentlemen, Ladies,
Russian President Vladimir Putin, has already said, (in his press conference with France’s President Hollande), that the United States gave the location and time of the Russian bombing attack of their SU-24 bomber, to the Turks. He did not imply (altho it was worded as an ‘by implication’), Putin explained that the United States set up the attack on the Russian bomber. Read/listen carefully. The statement by Putin is crystal clear; it bears no ambiguities. It was made – publically, and in full view of millions.
* The Key is: The Zionists and their puppet Americans wish for the Russians to stop what they are doing. They are not happy. They are desperate. Whatever the Russian nation is doing, it must be tremendous, fantastic, awesome, revolutionary… you add your description here…….. The Zionist imperialists really— don’t like what the Russians are doing.
This plot upon a plot as described by Korybko is too filled with ‘plausible’ excuses for everyone from Hollywood Obomber and his puppet Israeli government, to the remnant Turkish Empire [Prison house of Nations], and butcher of Arab, Armenian and Kurdish and Greek (lest we forget the Greeks in Cyprus), peoples. Within proto-fascist Erdogan- Turkey, their own people, their own political opposition, are brutally repressed.
Korybko’s conclusion is a discombobulated, although possibly intentionally so, mish mash.
“Turkey would immediately be put on the defensive (although it could try desperately responding by supporting Tatar terrorists in Crimea), the multipolar world have a chance at competing for the loyalty of an ultra-strategically positioned entity, and the consequences that this has for the Turkish government (whether it remains the same or is changed via a [military] coup) could recreate the political conditions for Turkish Stream’s feasibility.
1. What “Tatar terrorists” in Crimea? Does he mean the Zionist American puppet Ukrainian proto-fascist government? “Tatar terrorists” All 5 of them? A new group based inside some think tank? Evidence of their existence in, or near the Crimea?????
2. The “Turkish Stream” is a small river next to Ankara. Oh! that Turkish Stream!!! That was stillborn. It never began. Turkey is a puppet of the ZioAmericans; as a puppet, it is not allowed to consummate any deals of that magnitude with a Free Russia. Russia and Turkey had a date; and Russia escorted Turkey to their front door, but did not receive so much as a kiss.
The Good News:
And the presence of the Russian Air Corps in Syria is as much a proof of the Sovereignty and Freedom of the Russian people and their government, as were the Minutemen at Lexington and Concord a proof of fine things to come in America. Those things ended for us on November 22, 1963.
The Greek people may not remain quiet in all this. Now is the time for them to finish unifying their nation, and that means reunification with Cyprus, and exit from NATO, and eventually the IMF.
The Zio-Americans hang everyone out to dry, sooner or later.
For the Democratic Republics!
IMAGINE
Methinks you gots it Peter J.
Putin knows who is responsible. He won’t lose sight.
This is a short play to relieve pressure on his air force, punish the Turks, discourage Israeli intervention, head off and possibly reverse sanctions and possibly also to put pressure on Iran who have not delivered forces necessary to ensure coalition success in the Syrian theatre.
Everyone could see the pressure building on Russia as it moved from success to success — a reversal was imminent and plenty of people wanted to see Russia take a very hard punch.
Now Putin has side stepped. It is a judo move.
The Empire will lunge forward, thinking it has trapped the Russians, only to find their own weight and resulting momentum has carried them a away past the battlefield.
The result is Putin has more time to consolidate his and Assad’s recent gains.
In the long term, the US will betray the Kurds and the Kurds will remember Putin’s generous attitude towards them.
Iraqi Kurdistan is already a defacto state entity.
There’s no going back. The threat of creating a version of same in south eastern Turkey will be a powerful incentive for the Turks to ditch the Muslim Brotherhood/AngloZionist project to destroy Russia. This decision will be a most useful lever for Russia in a conflict that will be not be resolved in the forseeable future.
Fear not. In the short and long term, Russia will not abandon its goals in Syria.
c l eh,please stop!
You are giving away the game to the Cee Eye Ay! Now they will peruse this blog comments to find out what our game plan is and block us every way they can. Shame on you…..
Best help for syria in addition to the current airstrikes could be, egalising the border area ground a little bit, placing a strong fence with glonass coordinates on the exact botder, camera/observation towers,drone surveilllance, a road along the fence, quick reaction forces to respond to violation of the border. And so step for step lock the border down for real with active and passive force this will also prevent turkish armor/convoys from illegally crossing the border in support of their terrorists, close all border crossing and videotape every violation.
Pepe Escobar breaks it down. Excellent article on Telesur:
Why Turkey Stabbed Russia in the Back
http://www.telesurtv.net/english/opinion/Why-Turkey-Stabbed-Russia-in-the-Back–20151126-0029.html
The last thing Russia needs is yet another splinter state in her backyard that can become yet another potential Nato base. Too many headaches as it is. Not another piece on the devil’s chessboard.
This was a well planned downing of the Russian plane. The Russian fighter was over Turkey for around 17 seconds! Think about that! Did the Turkish government get “permission” from the US? Someone knows and it will come out eventually.
Turkey is a part of Nato which should have been disbanded many years ago. And yes, this could start WW3.
IDIOTS!
The Su-24 NEVER entered Turkey.
The fully monty.. Amazing how the Russians in 3 days have finished their investigation and conclusions and presented their report on the incident..
Turkish F-16 attacked Russian Su-24 without warning, both were above Syria – commander
A Turkish fighter jet launched a missile at a Russian bomber on Tuesday well ahead of the Su-24 approaching the Turkish border, the chief of Russia’s Air Force said. The bomber remained on Turkish radars for 34 minutes and never received any warnings.
Both aircraft remained in the area for 34 minutes. During this time there was no contact between the crews of the Russian bombers and the Turkish military authorities or warplanes.
Some 20 minutes after arriving at the designated area, the crews received the coordinates of groups of terrorists in the region. After making a first run, the bombers performed a maneuver and then delivered a second strike.
Immediately after that, the bomber crewed by Lieutenant-Colonel Oleg Peshkov and Captain Konstantin Murakhtin was attacked by a Turkish F-16 fighter jet operating from the Diyarbakır airfield in Turkey.
To attack the Russian bomber with a close-range air-to-air missile, the Turkish fighter jet had to enter Syrian airspace, where it remained for about 40 seconds. Having launched its missile from a distance of 5-7 kilometers, the F-16 immediately turned towards the Turkish border, simultaneously dropping its altitude sharply, thus disappearing from the range of Russian radars at the Khmeimim airbase.
The Turkish fighter moved two kilometers into Syrian airspace while the Russian bomber at no stage violated Turkish airspace, Bondarev stressed.
The crew of the second Su-24M had a clear view of the moment the missile was fired from the Turkish F-16, and reported this to base.
Commander Bondarev noted that a pair of Turkish F-16Cs had been in the area close to the attack zone for more than an hour prior to the attack
https://www.rt.com/news/323651-turkey-su24-downing-syria/
Can this be proven that F-16’s were in Syrian airspace during shooting?
The Russian radar showed that. And in the article ,even privately,the US has said the same.
“This is reminiscently similar to how the US put Sakkashvili up to bombing Tskhinval and invading South Ossetia – it may not have directly issued an official, on-paper order for this to occur, but it left no ambiguity as to how it wanted its proxy to act in each situation.”
It’s also eerily reminiscent of how America set up Saddam Hussein to invade Kuwait, leading him to believe all would be ok … then when he did: Bang! Out comes the international coalition, and we all know where that led. Erdogan needs to be very careful here.
As to whether Russia will support the emergence of a Kurdish state in some form, as a “geopolitical Israel”, I have some doubts. The Soviet Union did something similar when they recognised Israel’s initial emergence as an entity, and look where that got Russia and the world. Again, tread careful when dealing the Anglo-Zionists. Surely Russia by now has had that lesson well and truly rubbed in.
If this is the case, I suspect the Americans are miscalculating. It hasn’t been all that long since they couldn’t tell a Sunni from a Shi’ite. There may be a strand now which thinks all Kurds are basically the same, and since they get along with the Iraqi Kurds, Turkish and Syrian Kurds would be a good group to back too. In reality, though, the PKK and most of the Syrian Kurds have a very different ideology from most of the Iraqi Kurds, and it’s an ideology that is basically pretty hostile to the governing US ideology of neoliberal capitalism. They are some sort of anarchy-tinged socialists (which is just fine by me), so in the medium term I doubt they are going to be co-operating with the US government much beyond the minimum necessary to get them to bomb the terrorist fanatics in that strong point over there. Once the war is over, all bets will be off and they will be much more likely to co-operate with whoever is willing to co-operate back with the least attempt to dominate them. That’s unlikely to be the Americans, with their “let us have a military base every five miles and then open your markets to our multinationals” philosophy.
A most intriguing and plausible deep analysyis of the high quality that we have come to expect from Andrew Korybko. Is it the only possible conclusion? I could posit three others that are not mutually exclusive:
1)The US is just stirring things up as usual to further extend and weaken Syria and Russia.
2)The US wants too precipitate an excuse for its NATO warriors and vassals to invade Syria for R2P or whatever. In other words to break the current stalemate.
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3)The Turkish military hatched this (with or without US support) to embarrass Erdogan whom they hate with a passion. The ultimate objective being his downfall.
The US support for (3) may just be the NeoconCIA/Pentagon behind the scenes muscle that indicates some level of power struggle between them and the Administration.
What is very obvious from the ’17 seconds’ and blatant lies about ‘not knowing’ the identity of the aircraft is that all the Turkish and US military assets on the ground and in the sky were in place and ready to pounce. A premediated ambush in other words.
Superb analysis from Andrew once again.
Have we ever seen Putin maneuvered geopolitically away from his goals for Russia?
We have seen eruptions, like Maidan chasing Ukraine’s president out of office and junta launch an ATO war.
Now there is a shoot down and disruption of Turkish Stream and trading partnership.
But Ukraine’s Maidan purpose was to get into EU and NATO and those are impossible. So, the Putin goal is still the result we see.
Ukraine is blocked.
And with the changing topography of relations between Turkey and Russia, what is the bigger goal, neutralizing NATO and getting complete control of Syria or the Turkish Stream is the goal?
With the S 400s in place and the war being fought the way Russia wants it fought (with Syrian Army the chief boots on the ground, and turning rebels from fighting Assad to qualifying themselves in the political rearrangement by fighting ISIS) Russia has control of the destiny of Syria.
Russia also assures its own ME base for military and gas and oil trade. This also locks Iraq between Syria and Iran assuring Iran’s domination of its neighbor, building a continuum of common interests from the Mediterranean up through the three nations to Eurasia.
What happens with Erdogan is politics. Russia has little influence over that, as it also has little influence over Kiev. Russia will act where it can have or does have control.
NATO will see many more S400 units come to the region, in Syria at first, then Iran. Over the next few years as the S500 comes on line, Russia will bring those to Syria.
The price for NATO’s involvement is Turkey. They own Turkey. They own Erdogan.
Meanwhile, the Kurds can get enough new weapons they need to tie down Turkey’s military. If the US wants Erdogan controllable and Kurdistan viable, it will have to do it openly.
I don’t see Putin playing any part of the US game. He’s on another game board completely.
Putin has nullified the regional power positions of Turkey, Israel and NATO. The US may bait Turkey into some new suicidal mission against S400 defenses, but I don’t see Turkey able to sustain the negative economic impact while it also has to deal with the Kurds. Turkey has to accommodate Russia unless it can trick NATO into some suicidal action of its own.
What is birthing in the events is multipolarism, the ME being flipped from AngloAmerican vassals into Eurasian client states for Russia, Iran and China. It is just the first labor pains. But the demise of ISIS will be symbolic of the Hegemon’s hospice period in the region. The Hegemon too will have a long dying process. But this piece of the globe is about death of one system and and birth of another.
And this is not the final death process. Oh, no. There are other regions the Hegemon will live to shake and make chaos. And maybe it will have enough ISIS assets to send into those regions if the Hegemon can rescue them from Russian incoming munitions.
But, the US lost the international deal on Assad with its gambit encouraging Turkey to strike the Russian plane. Russia will dictate terms of federalization and the core of government in Syria.
As I stated, Syria now is Russia’s. There will be no power-sharing with the West.
Sanctions are on Russia for the long term, citizens of Russia have been killed in large numbers, three aircraft have been shot or blown out of the skies. Putin will never “negotiate or accommodate” the US.
The Turkish Stream does not matter at present. Syria is far more important.
And if Erdogan counts his fingers, he might have enough left to form a handshake and save himself, his economy and his government.
I also think there are many scenarios that can be wrought. This is just my sorting of things.
Hi Larchmonter445,
I always enjoy your analysis. Please share your wisdom with us more often! You’ve been commenting on China in the past. Many people are wondering where China is these days. Not a word anywhere on blogosphere on China’s position on the downing of the Russian bomber.
Now please let me comment on your statement:
“As I stated, Syria now is Russia’s. There will be no power-sharing with the West.”
I am cautiously optimistic on this one. Hollande’s call for a coalition with Russia is a bit disconcerting for me. As history demonstrated more than on one occasion, the West has a habit of joining the winning side the last minute to share the spoils of its victory.
China is conflict adverse. The Dragon actually is best seen as the Panda. China has a military that has not seen war since 1979. They spent two weeks across the border in Vietnam and got mauled. They really have built and are still redesigning command and structure to defend their borders. They exercised with the Russians to learn how to use battalions and brigades, and how to integrate technologies. They own the right weapons and are fully armed for any contingency but they are without the will to get involved as a nation. Their special strategic relation with Russia is a Eurasian relationship of neighbors who have one common enemy—the Hegemon with its attack dogs ISIS, AQ, Japan (now that they have broken the Constitution that did not permit them to use their military offensively) and NATO in its various permutations.
China will supply military equipment to assist if asked. They have a security force from PLA in Iraq. They definitely have troops in small units in South Sudan and are moving into other African nations with a small visibility.
They have billions of investments at stake that they would like to secure after ISIS is wiped out in Syria, Iraq, Egypt and Libya. But unless Russia uses SCO, China will not use its troops anywhere at this stage of the struggle.
Their foreign policy is to stay out of conflicts and urge (sometimes facilitate) negotiations. They love the UN to be the organization to go to. They converge with Russia in many ways and will integrate to defend Eurasia together.
But Syria is Russia’s historically as the USSR sided with the Middle East nations that chose to resist against the AngloAmerican hegemony back in the day.
The Russians military and MIC has deep roots in Syria and Egypt (though Sadat broke that and Mubarak really return toward Russia). But the Assad family and now General Sisi need Russia.
China is building a base in Djibouti which eventually will probably cause the US to leave Camp Lemonnier where they have a Drone Base.
China is very slowly beginning to create facilities in ports that may eventually be bases for their navy over time. They do a lot of port building in the world.
Projection of power into regions this far from China require enormous naval strength. China has only had a blue water navy for about five years. They built a green water navy, coastal or Littoral as it is called. Coast Guard sized ships are mostly scientific boats they mounted a gun on. So, though China floats tens of thousands of commercial tankers, freighters and gigantic container ships, she has a small navy. The aircraft carrier is still not fully operational as a warship fit for battle, and it is really a training vessel. They are constructing a very large carrier that will be ready in about five years to start moving into distant regions.
China is twenty years from being a super power military with global reach. Russia is much more powerful and it is small compared to the US because it has an inadequate naval force. One carrier is nothing in terms of making a show of power. What makes the Russians effective are the Electronic Warfare systems and missile defenses as well as the recently displayed cruise missiles. They really impressed the world with that capacity.
China has a defensive military, small, inexperienced, fearful of scaring its neighbors, and philosophically uninterested in the rough and tumble of warfare against proxies the Hegemon uses.
However, if ISIS gets larger in Xinjiang, China will throw 200,000 men at them in a flash. But that’s on their turf. Also, if the US convinces Taiwan that it should kill itself and declare its independence from the Mainland, or bases US or any other nation on the island, China will throw a million men at them. If Japan tries to occupy the Daiyou Islands China would go to war against Japan in some form, if not in a wide spread way. China is a Motherland protector, not a global military.
China wants to be the banker of the world, not the hegemon. China wants to invest and build customers in Eurasia, Africa and the Western Hemisphere, Europe and Middle East. They understand how poverty is eliminated, how emerging nations need investment and loans, how developing nations need education and trade and are willing to help everyone eventually buy Chinese, sell to China, trade with China and love China. They are a big lovable Panda with a Dragon mask.
Would they come rescue Russia if it needed rescuing? You saw that when the ruble was in trouble. They moved in with Yuans and helped Russia weather the crash. They extract a price in all relationships, but that is universal.
Russia with Putin is a Bear, a street fighter, a regional (several regions) superpower, and proactive. Putin’s philosophy is to strike the first blow. China is a counterpuncher. So far, so good. We are witnesses to this unique relationship and cannot hope that either will change. They are what they are. They will dismantle the Hegemony over the next ten years. But I’m not certain they can really slay the Hegemon. That beast may morph into something we have yet to imagine. But the multipolar reality has begun.
Putin and Xi are incredibly smart. There are no match for them in the West. But the West is Satanic and a shape-shifting force. Russia confronts it directly. China stands off and analyzes, studies and measures it while it devises a plan.
Larchmonter445, thank you so much for the very detailed reply. Your love for China so unmistakably shines through your beautiful and almost poetic words.
What mixed-up confusion. My fingers itch for a sword to cut this Gordian Knot.
I suspect a Weapon of Mass Distraction. A canard is a false story. In another language canard means a duck. A duck can be a decoy or the real thing. How can I tell reality from fantasy? Get my ducks in a row?
When in doubt, follow the money. The US creates digital dollars. Russia and Co. tries to slip the noose without killing the golden egg goose and create some duck eggs of its own.
The Russian Central Bank is caught between the lines, frozen like a deer in highlights. The Zionist-Khazars aka Ziozars are the headlights.
The RCB is the canary in the mine. If I want to escape the blinding headlights of confusion I need to go down into the dark and check that canary, or canard.
The magician gets me to look at his right hand while his left picks my pocket. My eyes are glued to the latest war theater while the pretty girl takes my money and gives me a ticket to entrainment central.
Banks are not all central but they all have ranks. Most know their place but there are always those mavericks who don’t. Elvira Nabiullina is not a maverick but Vladimir Putin has dreams about her being one. He can’t quite decide if she’s a canary or a canard. He doesn’t wish her to be a sitting duck.
The RCB is not that big a deal; in fact for some it’s a steal. I guess I’m just infatuated with Elvira. I can’t decide if she’s a canary or a canard, or just a “pawn in their game.”
To escape my confusion, Andrew K. doesn’t help much. When all else fails, I turn to love. The fog clears but then she tells me to go check on Elvira and Vladimir and I’m a deer in the thicket once again.
Love it, Dennis. You are a rare talent.
A couple of things to consider:
– it is no secret Erdogan was pissed off that his countrymen in Syria (Turkmen) were getting hammered by the Russian air strikes, as well as the destruction of his support convoys.
– the US hawks were eager for Russia to pay for their actions in Syria. They would have been encouraging Erdogan to attempt to take down a Russian aircraft.
– the Russian response is well anticipated, even Erdogan must have been advised what the most likely Russian response would be.
– the Russians will increase their efforts in Syria (to the delight of Assad), and be itching to exact some revenge on the withdrawn Turkish army.
Taking the above into consideration, the biggest question is why did Erdogan decide to undertake the course of action he did? He doesn’t stand to gain anything from this political manouver, on the contrary, his position and that of his country will greatly weaken. Where is the benefit for him to do what he did?
As morbid as it sounds, the biggest benefactor of this incident is actually Russia (and indirectly France, I’ll explain further down), since they now have the moral excuse to bring more weapons into the middle east and to accelerate their strategic plans.
Russia is actually hoping that Erdogan does something more stupid, and to watch the rest of NATO (especially the French and Germans) back away quickly since they are not interested in playing with the Bear.
Turkey doing something foolish can actually cause NATO to disintegrate faster than anyone thinks. In the past, France has already left NATO once before (but rejoined), and they might actually use the fear of WW3 to leave NATO again.
Everyone knows that Europe has no sovereignty due to US political/economic pressure, and the threat of NATO countries being dragged into WW3 because of crazy Erdogan might be the trigger that makes the bigger European countries (like France) finally step free from US influence.
Again, this benefits Russia, but also France and Germany.
I still don’t understand why Erdogan chose this path – there is zero benefit for Turkey or for him.
Erdo didn’t choose this path. His hand was forced.. by Turkish intel and their Western backers.
Erdogan is on the outs. Davutoglu is the number one beneficiary, athough Turkey gains nothing. Davutoglu will no longer care to give Erdogan his constitution. There’s a new big Turk in the neighbourhood.
The way this going, by next week IS in Raqqa and allepo will be SDF wanting to vote..
Everyone should be made to show their birth certificates.. The speed at which the YPG is taking positions means no one is fighting them.
SDF has reportedly taken Malikiya village from Turkish backed militants, the latter blames #RuAF airstrikes in helping SDF advance #Aleppo
Syrian democratic force or something.. basically YPG armed by US weapons..
Rojava Defense Units @DefenseUnits · 12h12 hours ago
Formed by over twenty Kurdish, Arab and Assyrian military units, the #SDF
Arab villagers in newly liberatd areas of Hasaka welcme #SDF fighters
15 opposition brigades in Idlib, Aleppo join #SDF forces
Kurdish forces dig in just outside ISIS headquarters in Raqqa
watch the #arabs celebrating after #YPG #SDF free&librated them form #ISIS
https://twitter.com/kovandire/status/670250630808752128
AS Stephen Cohen has said, if it ever looks like the EU will create a coalition with Russia expect some very strange things to happen.
And the EU will do so – on Ukraine (either to pick up the pieces after it self destructs, or better to get it into order once it realised that the US is out to destroy Ukraine not help it). And in Syria even sooner.
When the EU countries quit Nato and say they won’t work with a US that encourages Georgia, Ukraine and Turkey to start wars with Russia (and Afghanistan before that), when they say it is either Turkey quits or we do, we will get an EU defence force where the US no longer has any say.
This of course would be disastrous for the US – all their worrying about Russia or China representing a rival influence to the US and sudden the EU will be a player!
The real question is, how will the EU countries get rid of the American bases in Europe. Politely ask them to leave ?
Becoming aware again of the power of unity of citizenship and take to the streets to claim it?
Voting to parties which have in their program the output from NATO and bases outside, as IU in Spain?
The problem for this is that parties like IU virtually have no presence in the media, or the truth is that they have not worked this issue as they could, because they could well traversed the country informing people, as Podemos did when was newly born with their project.
If people really knew what we face at home taking what we have here, with a minimum payment on an alleged gain of jobs, people would demand the departure of both the bases and from NATO, and allocate these budgets to other needs more important for citizenship.
I would suggest that people that want out of NATO.And US bases out,not broadcast that.Keep those thoughts to themselves until they get power.Look at Putin.If the oligarchs had known he was how he is.That he wouldn’t just be a younger Yeltsin,he could never have become President at that time.They thought he would be a puppet for them.But once he gained power he became much more of a reformer.And overturned a lot of their influence. Take the example of his success.As long as the US and the elites think you are “their boy” they won’t try to stop you from gaining power.Once in power,surround yourself with only like minded people.And purge your governments of US puppets. By then you should have a long list of who they are. If the European states want to be free they have to clean their own stables to get there.
Yep, That was basically Prince Hal’s strategy.
The Tudor era (Shakespeare’s, too) wasn’t exactly a walk in the park for getting power and holding on to it.
Katherine
“When the EU countries quit Nato /…/ “
NATO is the armed wing of the Zionazi Bankster Cabal which also happens to reign supreme in the EU. Consequently, if and when the EU countries quit NATO, that means neither the EU, nor NATO is around anymore. Today, more than ever before, the two are inextricably linked as Siamese Twins of Western imperialism.
To make an interesting point here: France under De Gaulle actually did quit NATO in 1966 (the quisling Sarkozy brought France back there in 2009). Granted, there was rage and fury in the US about this, but it didn’t lead to any retaliatory acts of subversion and coercion. Possibly, De Gaulle’s measures were tolerated since the social cohesion and the booming capitalist economy throughout Western Europe in those days could afford minor concessions in favour of neutrality.
The issue of leaving NATO today is of an entirely different political magnitude, however. More than ever before, NATO is absolutely indispensable to the Western bankster mafia who is slowly but surely losing its despotic power over the Global South while at the same time being confronted by Russia’s and China’s rising power and cooperation. Also, deep down, there is much instinctive fear among Westerners at large of what would happen to their material living standards — forever at the expense of the Global South — if NATO were weakened, let alone dissolved. And these fears are further reinforced by the fact that reformism was abandoned long ago — the so-called “post-industrial society” having no needs to sustain itself by any other means than utter parasitism all along the line.
Bottom line: NATO = Nazi American Terror Organization. Total lawlessness and violent coercion. Expect no mercy trying to quit or resisting “Anschluss”.
1. The guys who fired on the parachuting Russians were Turkish.
2. They were interviewed in the area by CNN and Fox crews pretty quickly after their exploits.
You can see the CNN and Fox mikes come inside the video frame after the 5 second mark.
https://video-yyz1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hvideo-xpt1/v/t43.1792-2/12306515_915068481896540_317417873_n.mp4?efg=eyJybHIiOjE1MDAsInJsYSI6MTAyNCwidmVuY29kZV90YWciOiJzdmVfaGQifQ%3D%3D&rl=1500&vabr=253&oh=58e107f95b2f6d3b385f88c04cddcc7e&oe=5658E27F
This was very much an out-of-the-way area of Syria, and it looks like the crews were clearly ready.
For Russia, maybe the best outcome would be to keep its relationship with Turkey reasonably healthy. One way to do this is for them to say that they will not retaliate for the Su-24 shootdown — but only if Turkey forces Erdogan to step down and fine him all of his assets. Erdogan certainly deserves punishment for almost starting World War 3. The punishment should satisfy Russia, and keep Turkish business interests happy.
I have little doubt that the AZ empire would like to split Turkey from Russia, just as it would like to keep Germany away from the bear. What better way to foil the zionists than for Turkey and Russia to refuse to be enemies?
This article, a geopolitical game-theory analysis of the current tension between Russia and Turkey and the pivotal role of the Kurdish card is good on many points. However, it’s inexplicable – frankly bizarre – that Israel’s well-documented relationship with the Kurds is not even mentioned! If I’m being generous, it may be because the whole situation is already so complex – with multiple rivals and shifting alliances – that adding this factor to the pot, makes any sensible analysis hard to accomplish.
Nevertheless, historically, culturally and financially, the Israeli-Kurdish mutual partnership is so well established and tight, that ignoring it just can’t be justified. In fact, Israel and Kurds are openly proud of the relationship:
“Israel’s support of the long and justified struggle of the Kurds is not a secret. Israel, leaving aside Egypt and Jordan, which have recognized the Jewish state, has always sought allies to reinforce its legitimacy in the Muslim world to counter the Arab siege around it.”
… “Moreover, Israel has always had close ties with the Kurds. The Barzanis, uncle and nephew, have close ties with Jewish Kurds of Barzan and Acre. According to a 2008 study by researcher Selin Bolme conducted for SETA [the Political, Economic and Social Research Foundation of Turkey], Kurds assisted in the migration of Jews to Israel during the establishment of Israel and after the 1967 war. These traditionally close ties, plus the presence of 150,000 Jewish Kurds in Israel, contribute to intimate ties.
Source: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2014/07/iraq-crisis-israel-welcome-kurdish-state-us-turkey.html#
You say we are on the cusp of a remarkable moment:
“Having explained all of this, it’s now clear that a remarkable convergence of strategic interests has developed between the US and Russia focusing on Turkish-administered Kurdistan.”
And conclude, “Russia surprisingly has nothing to do lose and everything to gain by covertly supporting the Kurdish cause in Turkey…” However, you don’t explore who benefits most from Turkey’s irrational decision to attack a Russian plane because the reason Putin was deeply disappointed was because the relationship between the two countries up to that moment was, if not cordial, then at least businesslike and profitable. Israel clearly has most to gain – think gas and oil fields lying under a future Kurdistan. It also has a proven record of sabotage and murder by eliminating perceived threats in order to pursuit of its goals. Behind the attack on the Marvi Marmara and Kurdish terrorist attacks in Turkey, lie rivalry over said gas and oil fields.
Sorry, but if founding Kurdistan contributes to a warming of relations between the US and Russia, then that benefit is only incidental and will be short-lived. Make no mistake, the prime beneficiary of this Kurdistan will be a ‘Greater Israel’ inexorably expanding its military and economic reach. Overtly and covertly, Kurdish militancy has been a useful tool to destabilise Israel’s enemies – Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran – and fits in with long-term imperial ambitions from which aims to dominate the region. “The Promised Land extends from the River of Egypt up to the Euphrates, it includes parts of Syria and Lebanon.” Israel Shahak exposed the blueprint for achieving this aim in his expose of Oded Yinon’s “A Strategy for Israel in the Nineteen Eighties”:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/greater-israel-the-zionist-plan-for-the-middle-east/5324815
That two superpowers will have been maneuvered into giving Israel what is desires so cheaply, attests to an intimate knowledge of game theory. They may not have invented it but they certainly excel at it – they even have a Nobel-winning exponent, the arch-Zionist and Talmudist Robert Aumann: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Aumann
Who profits from a Kurdish ‘geopolitical Israel’… Not hard to see, Israel! Haaretz reported on August 24th this year that Israel imports three quarters of its oil from Iraqi Kurdistan: http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.672599
Kurds are ISIS: http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.co.at/2014/11/kurd-isis-symbiosis-impending.html
Russia giving its approval for Kurdistan would be a blunder:
Kurdistan. NATO’s New Southern Flank? http://pennyforyourthoughts2.blogspot.co.at/2014/11/kurd-isis-symbiosis-impending.html
Pepe Escobar: Why Israel is in love with Kurdistan: https://www.rt.com/op-edge/169672-israel-kurdistan-conflict/
Further Israel-Kurdish cooperation:
Mossad and Kurdish Terrorism:
http://www.heptagonpost.com/fiore/was_the_mossad_really_behind_the_resurgence_of_kurdish_terrorism_in_turkey%3F
http://jcpa.org/article/the-future-of-kurdistan-between-turkey-the-iraq-war-and-the-syrian-revolt/
Israel and the Kurds:
http://www.meforum.org/3838/israel-kurds
Israel Reportedly Training Kurdish Forces
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/135877#.Vlb1NKZ637D
Iraq appoints Jewish Representative in Government:
http://ekurd.net/jewish-representative-iraqi-kurdistan-2015-10-16
“Mossad sent me to Kurdistan to help the Kurds”:
http://ekurd.net/mismas/articles/misc2011/7/state5261.htm
Do Kurds even exist as a homogenous group? http://m911t.blogspot.ca/2014/09/kurds-vs-arabs-freemasonic-fabrication.html
Maybe I’m being too harsh because this article is in many respects excellent but the conclusion is flawed. For some reason, the malignant role of Israel in the destruction of the Middle East today and the role Kurdistan plays in that, seems sadly under-examined and under-reported by Russian media and writers. We know that Israel and the Jewish lobby has long been the elephant in the room in US political, economic and cultural affairs. Does that elephant also have a room in Russia?
By all means, Turkey’s demented elite should be appropriately punished and the best way to do that would be to seal the Syria-Turkey border and wipe out the terrorists. But remember they’re just corrupt opportunists in a big coalition that includes Israel working behind the scenes pulling the strings.
” We know that Israel and the Jewish lobby has long been the elephant in the room in US political, economic and cultural affairs. Does that elephant also have a room in Russia?”
Very much so. While (as far as I know),its not quite as extreme as in the US. Its very strong among the Russian elite classes. The difference,is among the masses of the population. There isn’t the pro-zionist feeling among the Russian masses that you have inside the US.
I don’t know about what strings Israel might be pulling, but assuming they stay more or less neutral in the U.S.-Russia struggle, (although clearly they are in the NATO camp) they are set to come out of this making like bandits.
In the Mackinderist struggle of the outer islands to prevent Eurasia from realizing its heartland, Israel can profit three ways.
Playing off the leavings from the struggle between East and West, such as the vast black market that has emerged in the shattered Middle East, defying any ‘boycott Israel’ notions.
Being the ‘friend’ to the lead players and any probable winner of such a struggle, if one somehow arises or as one emerges briefly in the lead. Even now, the U.S. is upping its aid to Israel for the crime of not invading Iran.
In having the sole remaining bridges between East and West after the two finish burning theirs.
Israel is mostly in the news for its anti-Palestinian activities; its not really overlooked, so much as attention is drawn to these other activities that compete for attention with its actions in Syria. However, Israeli airstrikes against Syria and Hezbollah don’t go unmentioned.
It might be a good idea to know more about “the Kurds” before we think about Russia’s involvement or not with them.They were/are an “Iranic” language group.Related to Iranians,and Armenians.They have been in those lands for untold centuries.In the old days “Kurd” was a common name for nomadic travelers.Over the centuries they assimilated people from the lands they were in.The Northern parts of “Kurdistan” used to be Armenian.And the Southern areas were inhabited by Semitic peoples.Even today there are differences between the “ethnic” Kurdish regions in language.Basically most historians think the Kurds are a mixture of original tribal peoples with very heavy assimilation of the surrounding peoples taken into their “ethos”.Probably the Kurds in Iran and far North Eastern Iraq are more “pure” than the Kurds in Turkey and Syria.Its only been in the last centuries (helped by nationalism among the “Turks” and Arabs,and by Western intrigues.),that there has been a “Kurdish problem”.They are mostly Sunni,and as long as treated fairly,were loyal to whatever Sunni Muslim ruler controlled the land they lived in.
Now,understanding all that. What is the US and Russia’s interests there.With the US (as always) there is a double game.In Iran and in Iraq and Syria.They use the Kurds to undermine the governments in those countries.And in Turkey they use them to blackmail the Turkish state.Basically half of a potential “Kurdistan” is in Turkey.So for a “real” Kurdish state to come about it would severely dismember Turkey.And if they created instead a smaller Kurdistan out of Iraq and Syrian territory it would leave a huge area claimed by the Kurds and guarantee constant unrest and warfare there.Which would be good for the US.They could claim to be the “saviors” of the Kurds.Creating a “Kosovo” for them.While they could also claim to the Turks that they saved them from getting dismembered.While subtly letting them know,if they don’t obey that could still happen.
So what about Russia in that mess.They have nothing long term to gain by supporting the Kurds.A Kurdistan would take lands from Russia’s allies (or potential allies) in the region.So to gain support from the Kurds,they would lose the support of Iran,Iraq,and Syria. Not really a good trade for Russia.The best for Russia,would be to support the Kurds fighting Daesh and some support for those anti-Erdogan Kurds. But to support the idea of only some Federal autonomy for the Kurds.Based on a country by country basis,and not region wide.With Iran they will need to completely stay out of any dispute about Iranian Kurds.And let the Iranians and Kurds settle their own issues.In Iraq,the Kurds have an autonomy arrangement.Which the Russians should support.But also staying out of that affair.In Syria,I believe Russia is pushing the Syrian government for a Federal state already.So to get them to assure the Syrian Kurds of home rule wouldn’t be anything out of the ordinary. But would get the Kurds more on Assad’s and Russia’s side against their enemies.The Turkish Kurds are the “wild card”.While supporting them against oppression by the Turks.I’d think Russia should also push for a Federal autonomy there.Not for an independent Kurdistan.
The only ones to gain from a “Kurdistan” state are the US and Israel.Even the Kurds would not gain.They are too spread out to all be included in one state.And that would leave those outside in a desperate situation.And they would probably be ethnically cleansed from their centuries old homes by the states betrayed by them.While inside that “Kurdish” state would include large numbers of other ethnic peoples.Many would be forced to flee,many would most likely be killed.And those left (if any) would harbor hatred for the Kurdish state.Leading to ever more war and chaos.
When the DAESH declared Sykes-Picot dead, they were parroting Western geostrategic planners. Since the formation of Israel, plans have been proposed to redraw and balkanize the Middle East into more manageable ethnic bits.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/greater-israel-the-zionist-plan-for-the-middle-east/5324815
This balkanization is no secret and the actual maps used by strategic planners probably loosely resemble the ‘trial balloons’ released to the public. Most notable, an independent Kurdistan, landlocked, but with land parceled from Turkey, Syria, and Iran.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/plans-for-redrawing-the-middle-east-the-project-for-a-new-middle-east/3882
The Cold War Arab strongmen were apparently too successful at cobbling together working nation-states, despite the ethnic diversity meant to keep them fractious and unstable entities.
In terms of geopolitical grand strategy, this balkanization plays into MacKinderism.
Halford MacKinder developed the ‘Heartland theory’ of geographical world pivots. A continental space bordered by natural defenses – seas, and mountains, within which a central plains intersected by navagable rivers served as an agricultural and commercial hub.
The central Eurasian plains is the worlds largest geographical pivot, dominated by Russia, and shared with China. The North American Great Plains forms the world’s second largest geographical pivot. Unlike the Eurasian heartland, the North American Heartland is fully developed. Currently, fortress North America is the centre of a world empire, one, according to MacKinder, ever at threat of displacement by the far, far larger world heartland, should it ever realize itself.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/eurasia-the-world-island-geopolitics-and-policymaking-in-the-21st-century/2095
Many wars have been fought based on MacKinderism. There may be something to it; the worlds first worst economic system, the Marxist-Lenonist Soviet Union, survived years after educated detractors thought it would collapse.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictions_of_the_dissolution_of_the_Soviet_Union
Fascist crony capitalism, the new worst economic system ever, exemplified by the United States, is also long-predicted to collapse.
Somehow it hasn’t. It thrives, perhaps not just because it has the world reserve currency of choice, borrowing off everyone else’s GDP to fund the largest military-intelligence-financial industrial complex ever. The U.S. is plugged into, and totally dominant over, the powerhouse of the North American Heartland.
The Kurds are a large piece on the grand geopolitical chessboard. It is in NATO’s interest to use them as Mackinderist pawns, and Russia’s interest to foil that. For the Kurds, likely their best hope is in not realizing nation-stathood, but in their leader Abdullah Ocalan’s vision of autonomous stateless nationhood and be nobody’s pawn.
http://roarmag.org/2014/08/pkk-kurdish-struggle-autonomy/
Syrian Kurds and Syrian government have the same enemies. It is fairly obvious which way this will go.
Russia has ensured that the wording in all international agreements says that Syria’s territorial integrity remains.The Kurds have a presence in Moscow and I think Russia will be the mediator that allows the Syrian government and Syrian Kurds to come to an agreement.
Syria and Armenia both have historical claims on Turkish territory. So if Turkey plays the Anglo-Zionist game much longer and becomes weakened, then she may be the one getting balkanized. And does Russia then enter in as the historical protector of these countries (Armenia and Syria)? Would she want to? Would this then become a process for the AZ empire to exploit. Would Greece, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Iran then also take advantage to redress losses in previous wars with Turkey? Erdogan needs to tread careful. Prior to the collapse of the Soviet union, who would have thought all the geopolitical events that followed would have occurred? So please don’t write off the possibility of the above scenarios. Anything is now possible, as the genies are being let out of their bottles one by one.
excellent analysis uncle bob
One of your best mini-analyses ever Uncle Bob.
‘Kurdistan’ is basically a Zionist project. Should this proto-nation ever be realized, it would be little more than a ‘Transdineister’-on-steroids’ , a long, thin slice of border country, characterized by lawlessness and perpetual unrest. All the nation-states bordering this manufactured entity would be on permanent alert.
There are far too many internecine political rivalries between the different factions for Kurdish ‘unity’ to be anything other than a pipedream. That’s why Zionatoists are constantly promoting the project – they can exploit this factionalism to control and exploit resources in the region.
Even where there is a regional Kurdish government (Iraq) , it is in disarray. Massoud Barzani is essentially using the project for personal self,enrichment and to further the interests of his clan. He is clinging to power despite having no electoral mandate for his continuing presidency. His recent overtures to Russia should be ignored in my view, as he is simply attempting to woo Russia away from vital cooperation with the Iraqi government.
The recent Shingar liberation was not quite the pr success touted by the msm: a spokesman for the Yazidis denounced the HDP’s peshmerga forces for having abandoned them in the first place and denying them weapons to protect themselves from ISIS.
Barzani also tried to stop the Iraqi flag from going up in Shingar, despite the heavy presence of Iraqi (mostly Shia militias) in the operation.
He himself has a Turkish passport and his children’s children have been born in US hospitals. I think it is pretty clear where his ‘allegiance’ lies – and its not to the overall benefit of Kurds.
Following a budget dispute with the Baghdad government on the failure to supply the agreed amount of BPD of oil, the KRG began selling on the black market. I would not be at all surprised if the ‘arrangement ‘ included ISIS and Erdogan/Turkish MIT.
Russia should maintain its policy of territorial integrity out of a) principle, b) maintaining trust with nation-states and c) with a view to brokering post-terrorist political-economic deals that address Kurdish grievances in Syria. It will be far better for the Syrian Kurds to remanded within the established state structures of Syria than attempt to form them from scratch with other regional rivals and factions. The Iraqi situation will largely be resolved internally as will the Turkish: Russia should not get involved other than to treat the PKK as a legitimate group. This they already do.
Thank you! And yes you are right.The very best for the Kurds (who I like BTW),would be some sort of federal autonomy in the countries they live in.The saddest thing is their problems weren’t caused by them.The nationalism of the nation states created there,instead of realizing that the Kurds were a special group.And needed “kid gloves” treatment.Thought of them as potential traitors,and started to oppress them. That led to a wedge the Israelis and the US where able to exploit for their own benefits.As I said,the Kurds are not a “united” people.Ethnically they are a hodgepodge in the different states.Many scholars say the main dialects of “Kurdish” are so far apart as to even be separate languages.And politically,they certainly are split as well.With some being socialist followers and some tribal capitalistic. They have even fought among themselves in the past.A Federal system,would give them the autonomy they need.And at the same time allow the nations in the region to keep their borders intact.As I looked at the foolish map that the US developed to reshape the MENA.I thought to myself how insane the nations on that map were that supported the US.With friends like the US they don’t even need enemies to destroy them.
Hi Uncle Bob, I’ve read and written on that subject myself- the non unification of the kurds
Where I disagree a bit with your contention regarding the Kurds. In my opinion much of their misery is self inflicted- (not the masses, rather those they allow to lead them) they have acted in horrendous ways- They have a history of participating in brutal massacres. They also have some secret society involvement… which would make them suspicious to those that govern them and those around them
http://www.foia.cia.gov/sites/default/files/document_conversions/89801/DOC_0000258376.pdf
You can see from this CIA document (1948) the kurds were identified early on as being of strategic importance- which means that some would have been approached and groomed by the CIA as destabilizers some time ago.
It’s an interesting and enlightening 22 page read
Uncle Bob –
I recommend this editorial on the current state of the KRG (‘Kurdistan’ Signal Government) – not too optimistic for Kurdish ‘unity.’
http://ekurd.net/troubles-in-iraqi-kurdistan-2015-11-28
Note: though the writers believe in the ‘Kurdistan’ project, they give an honest appraisal of the obstacles it faces.
While I mostly agree with the article, its maybe a little too Russia-centric. Its possible that Russia is only a secondary target of this action, the opportunity for an action, and the first, none other than Erdogan’s Turkey.
Recep Erdogan considers himself a rival to Saudi Arabia as a leader of the Sunni Muslim world, presumed to chastise Israel over the Gaza aid flotillas, and pursued an independent policy on the Kurds, whom he bombed instead of the DAESH, but whom the U.S. wants to prop as their people on the ground. He also presumed to make major gas and nuclear trade deals with the Russians, whom the U.S. wants to isolate.
Seems like someone a little too independent for NATO’s cozy club.
The incident happened on a holiday week for the U.S., guaranteeing that the public NATO’s most indispensable member would be mostly tuned out by Thanksgiving and Black Friday Shopping. Its a time when Congress might quietly pass legislation with little public scrutiny, or government make announcements it really doesn’t want heard.
Shooting down the jets and rushing to NATO, only to receive a few polite words of support, must have been very disconcerting and Erdogan immediately ended any beginnings rapprochement with Russia, instead becoming more belligerent, like he had something to cover for.
Not quite following all of the logic of Brockland’s post.
Re “presumed to chastise Israel over the Gaza aid flotillas”
I certainly think that was the right thing for Erdogan to do.
BTW, there is a pretty high-profile trial currently taking place in Istanbul regarding the Israeli attack on teh mavi Marmara. I have seen nothing about this in the Western press. I wonder whether there are any Turkish speakers in the Saker community who could find a summary in a Turkish news source and translate it for us.
Thanks in advance!
Katherine
Multi-faceted alliances are forming among all nations affected by not just the Turkish SU-24 shootdown but also the Paris attacks, remeniscent of the gradually forming alliances prior to World Wars I & II, which raises fears that a global war is impending. NATO is being split down the middle, the US is pretending one thing, doing another. Will the US come to its senses and align with Russia against the Islamic State, or will America be caught out in the cold if there were a World War on the horizon? So much happening, it’s hard to say. Some interesting articles giving a scope on the subject can be found here:
http://quemadoresearch.blogspot.com/2015/11/russia-and-europes-crucial-alliance.html
Correction: A better link I should have given for the above article is:
http://quemadoresearch.blogspot.com/
If you scroll down past it, there are some other reports that are even more to the point.
You seem to recall the good old fashioned days of Kemalist Turkish army.
But they are done for.
Didn’t you know that the good old erdogan imprisoned or eliminate 4-5 thousands officers during his first term?
Andrew points correctly to the reason of the apparent double game of the Americans: “Kurdistan… a ‘geopolitical Israel’”. The real constant of the American foreign policy was always the “protection” of Israel. The only way to ensure its full protection is the creation of a “Greater Israel”, creating a “glacis” around the Judean fortress (to which must be added the Sinai Peninsula as well), and advanced garrisons in the form of vassal states. This strategy was clearly formulated in the now well-known plan of Oded Yinon and fully endorsed by the American strategists ever since. Russia must be kept out of the region, therefore an important strategic goal was to create an second “geopolitica Israel” next to her borders (Ukraine and Intermarium – remember the ‘Jewish Soviet republic in the Crimea’ project?) and to control the potential allies of Russia in the Balkans (the Orthodox countries). Turkey was assigned a central role in this project, as it is demonstrated by the support for the Tatar activists of Crimea, Islamists in the Caucasus.
A very worying developement is the approval given by the Romanian Government for the construction of the biggest mosque and Islamic Cultural center in South Eastern Europe, financed by the Turkish Govt, totally disproportionate with the number of Muslims in Romania, but motivated by the prospective increase in their numbers – that was just a short time before the invasion of “Syrian” refugees sent by Turkey). The opposition of the outraged Orthodox majority of the population which expressed concearns that the real goal of this center was in reality a grooming ground for terrorists, was ritually denounced in truly PC lingo: “intolerant, xenophobic, islamophobic”. Turkey has already buit a huge Islamic centers in Albania, and Bulgaria.
In respect with the downing of the Russian plane in Syria, I think that it must be viewd in conjunction with the agitations of the Crimean Tatars. Tentatively, I surmise that the real objective was to capture the pilots and to create a hostage situation with the attendant media circus to show again how misguide the Russian intervention was. That makes the approval of the Americans most likely. The failure of the operation explains their sudden reservations.
But keep an eye on Ukraine.
“In respect with the downing of the Russian plane in Syria, I think that it must be viewd in conjunction with the agitations of the Crimean Tatars. Tentatively, I surmise that the real objective was to capture the pilots and to create a hostage situation with the attendant media circus to show again how misguide the Russian intervention was. That makes the approval of the Americans most likely. The failure of the operation explains their sudden reservations.
But keep an eye on Ukraine.”
I think you are on to something there.I read that the Turks were telling the terrorists on the ground not to murder the pilots.That they wanted them captured instead.I suspect that was their plan to get out of this situation.As long as they didn’t kill anyone they could have claimed they didn’t know whose plane they were shooting down (a lie of course).And they could have said “see,we rescued your pilots. So really,its not so bad.” It would have made Russia mad,and embarrassed.But that would have been about it.But with the pilot being savagely murdered,and on video too.There is no excuse for them now.They can’t just paper that over and think Russia will “just get over it”.Erdogan (I believe,though some others don’t think he was at fault) made a huge mistake getting the pilot killed like that.That has enraged all Russians.And as one poster said (multiply that by millions) about his daughter.That she said she’d eat tree bark before buying food from Turkey.People are very mad.That will make it difficult for Russia to reconcile with Turkey as long as Erdogan is in power there.And I don’t see him leaving power if he can prevent it.I think we are just at the beginning of a bad situation.
As to Ukraine,yes that is what to watch.After this atrocity from Turkey.Coupled with the Crimean power outrage.I think the junta is on “thin ice” with Russia.That deluxe idiot Turchinov said recently that Ukraine and Moldova needed to invade Transnistra while “Putin was stuck in Syria” and end Transnistra. So that shows they are still plotting away against Russia.I think if they were to try something like that,or attack Donbass.That would be the “straw that broke the camels back” for Russia.The Turks and Ukrainians are both “playing with fire” and may get fatally burned by it.And if NATO tries anything to help them the flames will engulf them as well.
Of course, your reading is as good as mine.
But look at “‘Syrian rebels’ waiting on the ground to kill Russian pilots were commanded by a Turkish citizen from “Grey Wolves”@Fortruss
The “selfiemania” was their downfall. Putin knew exactly who they were at the press conference with Hollande. From the report on Farsnews they were monitored all the time.
Yes, those terrorists on the ground wanted that.I remember one article said that there was constant communication chatter picked up from Turkish officials arguing with the terrorists about that.Saying “don’t hurt the pilots,they must be taken alive”. And the terrorists arguing back “no,we are going to burn them alive.We want them dead”.That was said to be one reason the other pilot was able to be rescued. The arguing about what to do with him took up time. And that allowed the rescuers to get to him first.
Andrew, I like your stuff, but you are completely wet on this one. There is a split in the U.S. The British and Obama on the one side and the American institutions on the other. Erdogan was nudged to do this by Obama, but when it happened the other side, the non-British side, moved immediately to open channels of communication on military and diplomatic levels with Russia to prevent an escalation, since the Russians knew it was Obama motivating Turkey. That is why there was an admission of guilt by a faction in the U.S. What happened is derivative of the internal situation in the U.S., far more than your local geopolitics, That is Obama is supporting the global terror with the British and their allies, and the rest of the policy institutions for the most part are not. Russia is serious about defending the human race from this. The issue is the use of terror to disintegrate the world rather than see the BRICS, the World Landbridge, the AIIB, ect take hold. In this the issue is also the use of nuclear war threat as the ultimate terror, in that Obama appears to believe in the efficacy of the Prompt Global Strike.
Hi Andrew, great thought out article….could be true. Yeah, it would be very bad if Turkish Stream was cancelled, unless German industrialists could get the other ‘stream’ back…I forget its name…but I remember how devastated a German pipeline technician was, when that whole thing got cancelled…I suppose that would require German bankers to stand up and fight for Germany, which is something they don’t feel the need to do, with the EU being so much in ‘their court’.
Falling in a trap to fight Turkey instead of ISIS would be stupidity on part of Russia. But not teaching a lesson to Turkey would be a suicide on international arena and even bigger stupidity.
Hi Everybody,
Thanks as always for the enthusiastic feedback, it’s much appreciated. I want to briefly address a few of the purposefully distorted criticisms in the thread, since the authors behind them are intentionally manipulating what I said. I very plainly wrote that the U.S. vision of Kurdistan is to turn it into a “geopolitical Israel”, alluding to a term that I had used many, many times before in describing that prospective entity. Please do a google search on it and see for yourselves. Secondly, my most recent analysis about Kurdistan prior to this one spoke at length about the relationship that it has to Israel:
http://orientalreview.org/2015/08/10/strategic-scenarios-surrounding-prolonged-kurdish-insurgency-in-turkey-i/
Sometimes it’s not possible to cite all of one’s extensive research into one article,especially if that piece is written in a couple hour time period amidst many other contractually pressing obligations that need to be done. For those of you who aren’t aware, I work with the Sputnik News agency,and as you could imagine, we have been super busy since Turkey stabbed us in the back. I give the benefit of the doubt to the community and my audience that they would do some cursory research on my prior articles before leveling unwarranted attacks on my work — something as simple as typing “Korybko” and “Kurdistan” into google or Oriental Review’s search bar is sufficient.
i also want to remind everyone that I wasn’t calling for an independent Kurdish state per say, as I wrote that a sub-national autonomous or federative arrangement would still be to Turkey’s ultimate detriment. My overall idea, buttressed by a multitude of evidence that one can find online, is that Russia and Iran are becoming important and influential actors in Kurdish affairs, with their multilateral anti-ISIL cooperation bearing testament to this fact. There is the distinct strategic possibility that this influence can be used to restrain the U.S. “geopolitical Israel” ambitions for Kurdistan and turn whatever manifestation of this prospective political entity (autonomous, federative, or independent) to their multipolar advantage. Considering that the entirety of Turkey is now under unipolar influence, the emergence of a potentially multipolar-friendly or multipolar-influenced entity over more than a quarter of its territory could be a setback for unipolarity, although of course this is still a very delicate task to maintain and much can still happen.
Thank you again to all of you who provided constructive feedback on my piece. It’s good to see that the majority of you weren’t led astray by the manipulative engineering of a few provocateurs with their own personal and political agendas.
Best,
Andrew
RF and China both concerned about territorial integrity of sovereign states and not meddling in others’ ethnic problems. This hypothesis/thesis is convoluted, Mr. Putin will not consider strategies with non-state actors as it would logically invalidate his efforts against IS.
The focus will be Syria’s peace, strategically Mr. Assad is in a better position to reclaim territory previously prevented by NATO contributed SAMs preventing his air-force from acting against northern intrusions.
The shoot-down was a game changer but the overall situation is exceptionally volatile considering the west wants that whole region under their control in the long run (one way or the other).
It is not only Turkey and the Erdogans who are benefiting from the black market of crude oil, but there is another player in the shade to whom anyone appoints and well known for his false flag operations:
“Netanyahu supports the disintegration of Iraq for Kurdistan oil”:
http://hispantv.com/newsdetail/Irak/76896/israel-petroleo-kurdistan-irak-isis-netanyahu
(….) “Benjamin Netanyahu, said in a statement that the Tel Aviv regime supports the independence of the Iraqi Kurds and the creation of a sovereign Kurdistan.
Noting that the Iraqi Kurds dream of forming an independent state, Netanyahu has highlighted that the Tel Aviv regime must cooperate with Iraqi Kurdistan, a region that has rich oil resources.
Netanyahu’s statements show, according to political analysts, the Israeli regime includes access to an energy source in the heart of the Middle East.(….)
(….) According to a report in the Financial Times, published last April, firms and Israeli refineries imported, in Iraqi Kurdistan, more than 19 million barrels of oil between May and August this year, representing the 77 percent of oil consumption of the regime of Israel.
Sales of oil in northern Iraq have caused a dispute between the Iraqi central government and the regional government of Kurdistan.
Baghdad argues that the oil belongs to Iraq as a nation so it should be sold through the Ministry of Petroleum; Meanwhile, the Kurdish regional government export oil through Turkey.
An Azeri newspaper reported in late August the drastic reduction of the purchase of oil to Azerbaijan by the Israeli regime for the oil of EIIL terrorist group (Daesh, in Arabic) and Iraqi Kurdistan.”
“Israeli Colonel Caught with ISIS Pants Down” by F. William Engdahl.
For Truth Follow the Money not the words of ISIS
MUST READ!
http://democracyandclasstruggle.blogspot.com.es/2015/11/israeli-colonel-caught-with-is-pants.html
(….) In a statement to Iran’s semi-official Fars News Agency a Commander of the Iraqi Army stated, “The security and popular forces have held captive an Israeli colonel.” He added that the IDF colonel “had participated in the Takfiri ISIL group’s terrorist operations.” He said the colonel was arrested together with a number of ISIL or IS terrorists, giving the details: “The Israeli colonel’s name is Yusi Oulen Shahak and is ranked colonel in Golani Brigade… with the security and military code of Re34356578765az231434.”(….)
(….) Precisely this creation of a “Salafist Principality in eastern Syria,” today’s territory of ISIL or IS, was the agenda of Petraeus, General Allen and others in Washington to destroy Assad. It’s what put the Obama Administration at loggerhead with Russia, China and Iran over the bizarre US demand Assad must first go before ISIS can be destroyed. Now the game is in the open for the world to see Washington’s duplicity in backing what the Russian’s accurately call “moderate terrorists” against a duly-elected Assad. That Israel is also in the midst of this rats’ nest of opposition terrorist forces in Syria was confirmed in a recent UN report.
What the report did not mention was why Israeli IDF military would have such a passionate interest in Syria, especially Syria’s Golan Heights.(….)
(….) In December, 2014 the Jerusalem Post in Israel reported the findings of a largely ignored, and politically explosive report detailing UN sightings of Israeli military together with ISIS terrorist combatants. The UN peacekeeping force, UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), stationed since 1974 along the Golan Heights border between Syria and Israel, revealed that Israel had been working closely with Syrian opposition terrorists, including Al Qaeda’s Al Nusra Front and IS in the Golan Heights, and “kept close contact over the past 18 months.” The report was submitted to the UN Security Council. Mainstream media in the US and West buried the explosive findings.(….)
(….) Interestingly enough, on October 8, Yuval Bartov, chief geologist from Genie Energy’s Israeli subsidiary, Afek Oil & Gas, told Israel’s Channel 2 TV that his company had found a major oil reservoir on the Golan Heights: “We’ve found an oil stratum 350 meters thick in the southern Golan Heights. On average worldwide, strata are 20 to 30 meters thick, and this is 10 times as large as that, so we are talking about significant quantities.” As I noted in an earlier article, the International Advisory Board of Genie Energy includes such notorious names as Dick Cheney, former CIA head and infamous neo-con James Woolsey, Jacob Lord Rothschild and others.(…)
Hanging out Turkey dry?
That seems to me an exaggeration. There had to be a step back. You cannot make it the new rule of international relations that any plane that crosses international boundaries for 17 seconds is shot down. That would be tantamount to starting World War III. Also, it is not unlikely that the Greek have asked at the NATO summit whether the member states would support it if in the future it shot down any Turkish plane that stayed longer than 17 seconds in its airspace.
The fact that it took so long for Erdogan to understand that suggests either a lack of IQ or the kind of arrogance that grows in some people who are too long in power.
My Russian American bride very much enjoyed this analysis. When we attempted to find a Russian language translation, we were able to find 35 language translations from Arabic to Urdu, but NOT Russian. Pochemu? Why?
It’s possible Mr. Korybko is right, that the US set a trap for Erdogan similar to the trap is set for Saddam Hussein in 1991 when April Glaspie told him his dispute with Kuwait was an internal Arab affair and he should settle it himself. He is certainly correct that foiling Turkish stream would be ample motive for such treachery. However, I’m skeptical that Turkey’s actions were authorized “at the highest levels” or with a sound, coherent strategy of any sort in mind.
I’m more inclined to agree with “blue’s” comment about different factions within the US power structure. There are at least three different lines of thought: 1) neocons dedicated to US hegemony, who want to continue using ISIS to remove Assad while pretending to fight ISIS, then deal with ISIS militarily while establishing a de facto partition of Syraq, 2) liberal interventionists who actually believe “Assad must go” to protect human rights in Syria and think they can do so by supporting the “moderate” al-Nusra forces against both ISIS and Assad. Like the neocons, they want to protect ethnic groups through a partition of Syraq, and 3) a few principled analysts and military brass for whom the defeat of ISIS is the first priority and are willing to genuinely work with the Russian coalition to get it done. There is also a fourth group, who have no strategy other than to create as much chaos as possible in the world to justify the institutional imperatives of the MIC. As a result of all the conflicting advise, the glib and narcissistic President is never quite sure whose behind from which to follow.
Add to this the fact that Turkey, especially under the leadership of Erdogan, has always been a “bad boy.” Korybko himself references “The West Wants Turkey Out” by Martin Berger, which lists several rogue actions taken by Turkey, including the invasion of Cyprus in 1974. More recently, Turkey has at times been at odds with Israel and has occasionally taken Iran’s side in the long dispute over its nuclear program, offering to supply fuel for the Tehran research reactor. As Korybko himself points out, Turkish Stream was not something the Empire wanted. However, the most egregious proglem has been Erdogan’s encouragement or failure to discourage the flow of refugees to Europe, which caused the unraveling of the Empire’s entire plan for Syria. It was the refugees that enabled Putin to get quiet EU approval for his intervention.
I believe the West hoped to use the Paris attacks to justify the introduction of NATO troops into Syria, led by the Turks. The SU-24 incident has foiled that, instead providing a causus belli to rally the Russian people behind the possible introduction of Russian troops. I doubt the neocons or liberal interventionists are happy about that, and certainly would not have encouraged it.
There is no doubt that Erdogan is a loose cannon that many would not miss were he to lose power, but that doesn’t mean the Empire would deliberately shoot itself in the foot to be rid of him.
Sanctions against Turkey are here:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50805
I think this writer is full of beans.
Don’t give up your day job is my advice to him.
WHO PAYS for a piece of writing like this, placed here?
2LT Dennis Morrisseau USArmy [armor – Vietnam era] retired. POB 177 W Pawlet, VT 05775
802 645 9727 dmorso1@netzero.net
turkey has a sunni agenda in line with the gulf states but it has a weak link,the kurds.turkey will simply be stopped from bombing kurdish positions by russian missiles.
the russian transport plane will come down over damascus and will start a fire that will burn the city to the ground.the flames will reach high into the sky and signal the begining of armaggedon
a final warning to all regional armies to seek peace in syria or risk all out war