I don’t think Muqtada will declare all out war. He has requested Allawi to negotiate a cease fire. (I was surprised by this development, as I am sure you were.)
FYI for some of the readers here:
Allawi and Muqtada hate each other.
I hope that Maliki doesn’t over reach. He should take advantage of his temporary leverage to negotiate a solution.
This clip is incorrect on one point. There have been negotiations between Muqtada’s representatives and MNF-I since at least early 2005. Muqtada has a stake in the Iraqi health, education and transportation ministry working well. It would help him in upcoming elections. He was been willing to accept US tax payer funded grants that assist his ministries. Muqtada has publicly asked Iraqis not to violently attack the occupation since August, 2004. In recent days he has been teetering. Let us see if he continues this policy.
Much of the reporting on Sadr is unsophisticated to say the least. You have to analyze his political prospects by province, and by district within provinces. All politics is local. Muqtada’s political support is fluid. He is blamed for poor GoI ministry performance (in his ministries) and the sluggish performance of the Baghdad and Maysan provincial governates. But Muqtada is helped by the poor provincial governance in the remaining 8 southern provinces, and poor non-Sadrist GoI ministry performance. Actually, you could write a thesis on his strengths and weaknesses by province.
Muqtada also has a PR problem with Iraqi sunni arabs and Kurds. The Sunni Arabs and Kurds in parliament have been cheering on the attacks on Muqtada. (Many of them want the IA to attack Badr next. :LOL: )
Ayaz, why do you think Muqtada and Chalabi have remained such close allies? They were close allies back in March, 2003. But Chalabi remains Muqtada’s closest ally in Iraq, even today. Both in April and August 2004, Chalabi remained loyal to Muqtada. Why?
On another note, do you think Khamenai has been backing Abu Deraa (an excuse for a human being.)
Anand, I do not know much about Chalabi except that he is a very prominent figure in terms of the politics in Iraq however if I was to take a guess on why they are close allies it is because that Moqtada and Chalabi both share a common interest that is Iran.
Having said that you also have to remember that Moqtada is politically very naive and Chalabi maybe the person who is working behind the scenes. Given his track record it would not be surprising. Chalabi is involved in the government now too on the recommendation of Maliki himself which is surprising to myself.
As for Abu Deraa, I have only found one blogger claiming or rather indicating that he has protection by the Iranians and given his track record I would be very skeptical. Other than that I have never found any other sources linking him to Iran. Moqtada has distanced himself from Abu Deraa and does not consider him a part of his party after his atrocities.
Furthermore there are rumours he is in Iran but not under the protection of the Iranians rather the Iraqis there. However I doubt he will stay long there once the authorities find out he is in the country.
“Moqtada is politically very naive.” Yeah, he reminds me of President Bush, except that President Bush is slightly more articulate :LOL:
The connection between Chalabi and Muqtada is deeper than Iran. Chalabi reminds me of Willy Brown, former California speaker and San Francisco Mayor. Chalabi has a way of surprising people.
You are right that Muqtada has distanced himself from Abu Deraa. The IRGC Kuds force created Muqtada’s JAM (be creating their officer corps and cadre.) Unfortunately, much of JAM was loyal to Khamenei or organized crime rather than Muqtada. This is why Muqtada quietly accented to the IA and MNF-I attacking “rogue” JAM. Abu Deraa was part of the rogue JAM.
Many Iraqis believe that Abu Deraa is close to the IRGC Kuds. It is hard for Iraqis to believe that one of their own, created and supported by Iraqis, is capable of such horrors.
Among the MNF-I, it was widely believed that Iran was supporting Shia extremists and encouraging them to attack Sunni Arab civilians, presumably in hopes of exacerbating Iraq’s civil war and tension.
I haven’t figured out what Khamenei’s motives or objectives are in Iraq.
I think I could turn and live with animals, they are so placid and self-contained … They do not lie awake in the dark and weep for their sins; They do not make me sick discussing their duty to God; Not one is dissatisfied, not one is demented with the mania of owning things; Not one kneels to another, nor to his kind that lived thousands of years ago.
Anand, IRGC did not create JAM that is a very widespread rumour which makes no sense at all given that most of the personnels of JAM are people who live in the South of Iraq and for them to get training or be inflitrated by the likes of IRGC would be very hard to digest for a number of reasons. IRGC has a hand in terms of aiding Moqtada and his army. And JAM are not loyal to Ayatollah Khamenai. The thoughts of JAM on the whole Marjiyyah system reeks of dislike hence for them to leave their own Marjas and support another would not make sense given their whole stance on Marjiyyah.
The problem with JAM is too many personnels are not following the line of Moqtada and are guilty of taking things into their own hands. The incidents of 15th Shabaan in Karbala is a prime example of this and that prompted Moqtada to call for a ceasefire to reform his militia.
I do not think it is hard for one to believe that Abu Deraa being an Iraqi is capable of this. Most people forget that people like Abu Deraa lived under Saddam for 35 years and now have to deal with another occupation which is causing them to lose their head. Many of these likes who caused the killings a number of Sunnis were people who had enough of everything and just took matters into their own hand. Fustration in the government is going to lead to this and Maliki currently needs to realise this. There is no basic services even after 5 years of having some sort of Government that is why many Iraqis are losing faith in politicians.
The allegation is not that JAM foot soldiers are IRGC Kuds force, (that would be ludicrous) but that the officer corp and senior cadre has been massively augmented by IRGC Kuds force affiliated Special Groups (Ramzan Corps . . . {Ramadan is called Ramzan in Urdu and Persian.}) It takes many years to build effective leadership in military organization. Think about a football (soccer for us Americans) team. Even if every player on the team is amazing, the team as a whole can be awful unless the players learn to work together as a team. The same is true of a military organization. Muqtada was forced to incorporate IRGC Kuds or IRGC Kuds trained officers to lead his forces without sufficient vetting. As a result, much of the nominal JAM was not loyal to him (or as he put it loyal to Iran rather than to him.) This was a major cause Muqtada’s cease fire. And attempt to regain control over all of JAM. Muqtada has quietly acquiesced to attacks on ‘rogue’ JAM by the IP, IA and MNF-I for this same reason.
The IRGC Kuds force operates in Iraq through their Ramzan Corps (further dived into three smaller organization) and Hezbollah from Lebanon. They train the senior cadre leadership of Shia militias (most of which are not JAM based on Petraeus’ testimony.) They have provided more limited training to thousands of foot soldiers. They also provide substantial money and equipping. (The large artillery pieces that fire on the International Zone and other parts of Baghdad, as well as ammunition, maintenance, spare parts, and training to use them comes from the IRGC Kuds.)
These activities have lead to a major backlash. See question 34 from http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/poll/2008/0308opinion.pdf (68% of Iraqis want American help with respect to Iran.) Q34 For each item I name, please tell me if you think the United States should or should not have a future role in that area: Providing training and weapons to the Iraqi army Mar08 % Should 76 Should not 23 Refused/don’t know 1 Providing financial aid for reconstruction within Iraq Mar08 % Should 73 Should not 26 Assisting in the security of Iraq in terms of Iran Mar08 % Should 68 Should not 31 Refused/don’t know – Assisting in the security of Iraq in terms of Turkey Mar08 % Should 66 Should not 34 Refused/don’t know – Participating in security operations against al Qaeda or foreign jihadis in Iraq Mar08 % Should 80 Should not 19 Refused/don’t know 1
It is clear that most Sadrists do not like Khamenei. (I would distinguish between the millions of Muqtada’s political followers and relatively few fighters who fight in JAM.)
Many Iraqis share your frustration with GoI national ministry execution, and provincial governance execution. Many blame the entire UIA.
The only point you make that I might differ with is regarding Abu Deraa. He is so cruel that many Iraqis don’t want to accept that he is one of them. Many insist that he is with Khamenei.
I noticed that MNC-I commaning LTG Austin was reaching out to Muqtada in Wednesday’s briefing (he was trying hard to make his comments consistent with Rice’s which were not as accommodating), while making it clear that he couldn’t comment on any negotiations between the GoI and Al Sadr.
Now if I can end with a question, I have a feeling that the UIA will claim that most of the problems in Iraq are caused by the resistance (Baathists, Takfiris, Iran, incompetent occupiers.) That if not for the resistance, security, the economy, governance and the quality of life would have been much better. Do you think that this platform can save them in the upcoming Iraqi elections? I think it will help them with some Iraqi voters, but that they will still lose many seats overall.
What this article doesn’t emphasize is that many of the militias that have been driven out were not JAM.
Now the question is who gets credit? Muqtada will claim credit for his nonviolent cease fire, and calling JAM off. Dawa will claim credit. So will many other political parties. The test will come in October.
ISCI and Fadheela will likely loose seats. But who will gain them?
Now if I can end with a question, I have a feeling that the UIA will claim that most of the problems in Iraq are caused by the resistance (Baathists, Takfiris, Iran, incompetent occupiers.) That if not for the resistance, security, the economy, governance and the quality of life would have been much better. Do you think that this platform can save them in the upcoming Iraqi elections? I think it will help them with some Iraqi voters, but that they will still lose many seats overall.
If UIA claims that the problems have hindered the progress and the problems as you have outlined Iran, Takfiris, Baathists and incomptent occupiers then they are going to shoot themselves in the foot. If there are incompetent occupiers then why are they in the region in the first place? Takfiris have gone quiet over the last year or so and most of the conflict is inter Shia hence that is point to hurt them too. That leaves Baathists and Iran, UIA cannot play the Iran card because the public might not appreciate it, not every Iraqi in the country is against the aid of Iranian be it even military aid. UIA cannot hold Moqtada responsible for the hindering of progress either given that he has been in the same boat as them yet managed to established the biggest social welfare entity in Iraq and doing much more than the Government. Both have had similar time period, similar circumstances however one has had much more resources yet failed to deliver hence the question has to be asked why the failure given the resources? Infact where are these resources? Billions that was to be pumped into Iraq are missing which no one has a clue about.
The blogger you linked to has taken the story from another blogger by the name of ‘Eye Raki’ which I have already specified in my previous post as to what I make of his blog. Why do Iraqi insist that he has to be with Khamenai? If the precieve Ayatollah Khamenai to be murderer then they can keep their assumptions to themselves for all I care. Abu Deraa is not with Khamenai nor given any protection by him.
Muqtada’s people have 6 Iraqi ministries, including health, education and transportation. To the degree that Muqtada’s safety net is a success, it is a testimony to the Iraqi ministries he controls and the overall GoI. Some Iraqis do not realize that the health/education/transportation ministries are part of the GoI and funded by the GoI because Muqtada puts his own pictures inside ministry building and next to ministry projects.
Muqtada has three sources of funding for his “informal” activities in this order:
1) Siphoning funds from his 6 GoI ministries 2) Khamenai 3) Organized crime (other political parties also participate in organized crime)
Ayaz, do you believe that Muqtada has done a good job running the health, education, and transportation ministries? If so, doesn’t Muqtada have to share credit for these ministries with the rest of the Maliki led government, as well as the funding approved for his ministries by the Iraqi parliament.
As an American, I would also note billions of dollars in American grants have gone the Muqtada’s ministries and their functions. American taxpayers have contributed to Muqtada’s success.
Overall, however, I am encouraged that you regard the Iraqi health, education and transportation ministries as successful. In many Shia majority areas, I would agree with your assessment. My observation, however, is that Muqtada has not done as good a job providing services in Al Anbar, Salahadin, and the Sunni Arab portions of Diyala province. Muqtada’s mandate is to serve all Iraqis with the GoI ministries he controls.
I would also note, that providing health care, education and transportation to every Iraqi is Muqtada’s responsibility. It isn’t the responsibility of other political parties that hold other GoI ministries. Other parties are responsible for their own ministries.
I like ‘Eye Raki.’ He seems quite well informed about the dealings of the 4 Grand Ayatollahs and the rest of the Najaf fiqh. He seems to be a good source of information regarding An Najaf, Karbala and the inner dealings of the Iraqi parliament.
To everyone else (excluding Ayaz): Muqtada killed Eye Raki’s dad Sayyid Abdul Majid al-Khoei–the son of Sayyid Abul-Qassim Al-Khoei—on April 10, 2003.
Moqtada’s role in the ministry is much less, yes his personnels are taking care of things that they are incharge of but their liason with the Government is not that great. And from the ground reports in Iraq I know that the funds are not coming from GoI since GoI do not have the allocated funds that they were suppose to receive after the invasion. If you get a chance have a look at the missing billions documentary, it specifies how the money that was set aside for the Government has never made it. Furthermore, if the GoI had so much money to fund well these ministries then why are the women in Iraq resorting to prostitution to make a living? Mahdi Army out of the Government are the biggest social welfare entity, their role in the Government is quiet restricted given their conflicts with the GoI.
If he has done it without using the resources of GoI then the credit goes to him alone, if not then the Government can take the credit. But to add weight to this if the Government knows he is doing well in these sectors then why bring a conflict on him? With all due respect, I do not think the US billions has even made it to the hands of the rightful receivers. Health and basic needs are still lacking and given the amount that was specified these should have been up and running in full functionality yet the reality is far from it. Have a look at the documentary I stated above and see the fate of the American taxpayers.
Overall, however, I am encouraged that you regard the Iraqi health, education and transportation ministries as successful. In many Shia majority areas, I would agree with your assessment. My observation, however, is that Muqtada has not done as good a job providing services in Al Anbar, Salahadin, and the Sunni Arab portions of Diyala province. Muqtada’s mandate is to serve all Iraqis with the GoI ministries he controls.
That is actually a very biased assumption given that I know of people living in pre-dominant Sunni areas who have been equally treated by Moqtada as the Shias have been treated. Given the circumstances in which Moqtada had to operate it is impressive to see how he has managed to make himself a very powerful broker in the Government and at the same time make his party a big social welfare entity in Iraq. The Iraqi Government should have kept the ceasefire alive rather than going for a conflict. I would simply say leave Moqtada and his people to their positions and see what can be done rather than cause conflicts because it only harms the Iraqi civilians and puts the Government into more chaos which gives the occupational forces more time in Iraq.
Everything I read from people’s blog which come from their meetings and their visits are taken with a pinch of salt given the character of the person and their views. For me nothing is certain fact from these posts of meetings and dealings since it is selective talk at its best.
Ayaz, I want Muqtada to be as successful as possible running his ministries because that is good for Iraq. I don’t care that much who wins between the different Iraqi political parties. Some Shia have said that it wouldn’t be a bad thing for the other major political parties to suffer an electoral setback.
“Moqtada’s role in the ministry is much less, yes his personnels are taking care of things that they are incharge of but their liason with the Government is not that great” The funding for these ministries come from the Iraqi government. This said, many in the Iraqi government, MNF-I and State Department are frustrated working with some Muqtada ministry officials. Simple example: the health ministry requires an immense logistical support network. MNF-I and the ISC (Iraqi Support Command within the IA {Iraqi Army}) can and do help. But coordination is sub optimal. This is hurting overall ministry performance.
Another point is that the many health clinics built, renovated or upgraded by American taxpayer funds need to be transferred to Muqtada’s health ministry and operated on an ongoing basis in a specific way. This transfer has been problematic in many cases. Although to be sure, there have been many successful transfers as well.
“And from the ground reports in Iraq I know that the funds are not coming from GoI since GoI do not have the allocated funds that they were suppose to receive after the invasion. If you get a chance have a look at the missing billions documentary, it specifies how the money that was set aside for the Government has never made it.” Elaboration? I am not referring to funds from 2003 and 2004, but the GoI budget today. The Iraqi finance ministry sends funding to specific ministries including Muqtada’s ministries. Whether it sends enough money, or the money is spent effectively enough are different questions. (I don’t think the GoI is spending enough money on these priorities or spending its money productively enough.)
“Furthermore, if the GoI had so much money to fund well these ministries then why are the women in Iraq resorting to prostitution to make a living?” Does this suggest that Muqtada has done a mixed job with his GoI ministries? “Mahdi Army out of the Government are the biggest social welfare entity, their role in the Government is quiet restricted given their conflicts with the GoI.” Muqtada’s supporters are in the government. Most of their funding and patronage comes from the government.
“If he has done it without using the resources of GoI then the credit goes to him alone, if not then the Government can take the credit.” The credit should also partly go to who funds the projects. Most of Muqtada’s money comes from his ministries. It is also true that Muqtada gets some money from Khamenei and organized crime independent of the GoI. None of Iraq’s political parties should be engaging in organized crime, although several do. Khamenai should give all his money directly to the GoI instead of to Muqtada, Dawa, Hakim, Fadheela, Iraqi Hezbollah, Kurdish parties, etc. Without these two revenue sources, Muqtada has no money except for through the GoI. He should be judged by how efficiently he spends GoI money.
“But to add weight to this if the Government knows he is doing well in these sectors then why bring a conflict on him?” This gets to the question who has greater responsibility for the current conflict. Muqtada’s followers should stop shooting at ISF and GoI representatives from non Muqtada ministries when they directly distribute food and other social services. (Muqtada believes that all services should only be provided through his own militias in their areas.) JAM should also stop attacking other Baghdad neighborhoods with their large artillery pieces. Currently the IA doesn’t have (with the exception of 8th IAD) mortars larger than 60 mm. JAM has many of them, and is firing them quite frequently, including at the International Zone. This very much offends Iraq’s parliamentarians and threatens the lives of Muqtada’s own 32 parliamentarians.
At the same time, the GoI must be willing to negotiate a compromise with Muqtada. Both sides need to compromise.
“With all due respect, I do not think the US billions has even made it to the hands of the rightful receivers.” In many cases you are right. “Health and basic needs are still lacking and given the amount that was specified these should have been up and running in full functionality yet the reality is far from it.” This suggests that Muqtada has a mixed performance with the health ministry, and that coordination between Muqtada, other parts of the GoI, ISF, and MNF is deficient. I think that American tax payers should provide more grants to the GoI, including Muqtada’s ministries.
“That is actually a very biased assumption given that I know of people living in pre-dominant Sunni areas who have been equally treated by Moqtada as the Shias have been treated.” This is true. The health ministry has had many successes and failures. Muqtada has had some successes.
“Given the circumstances in which Moqtada had to operate it is impressive to see how he has managed to make himself a very powerful broker in the Government and at the same time make his party a big social welfare entity in Iraq.” Muqtada has real achievements. Some other parties, however are upset that Muqtada gives the impression that the health ministry comes from him rather than the GoI. Personally I don’t’ care how much credit Muqtada takes as long as he delivers improved health services to the Iraqi people.
“Everything I read from people’s blog which come from their meetings and their visits are taken with a pinch of salt given the character of the person and their views. For me nothing is certain fact from these posts of meetings and dealings since it is selective talk at its best.” Very true.
“The Iraqi Government should have kept the ceasefire alive rather than going for a conflict.” I hope a negotiated settlement happens soon.
Ayaz, some of my friends have been looking for an Iraqi blog that is pro Muqtada. There is none in the blogosphere, although Raed Jarrar comes the closest (but he isn’t nearly as knowledgeable as you are.) Please consider starting your own blog. You seem to be partly sympathetic to Muqtada (importantly your support comes from a deep level of understanding), and your perspectives would be much appreciated.
I don’t think Muqtada will declare all out war. He has requested Allawi to negotiate a cease fire. (I was surprised by this development, as I am sure you were.)
FYI for some of the readers here:
Allawi and Muqtada hate each other.
I hope that Maliki doesn’t over reach. He should take advantage of his temporary leverage to negotiate a solution.
This clip is incorrect on one point. There have been negotiations between Muqtada’s representatives and MNF-I since at least early 2005. Muqtada has a stake in the Iraqi health, education and transportation ministry working well. It would help him in upcoming elections. He was been willing to accept US tax payer funded grants that assist his ministries. Muqtada has publicly asked Iraqis not to violently attack the occupation since August, 2004. In recent days he has been teetering. Let us see if he continues this policy.
Much of the reporting on Sadr is unsophisticated to say the least. You have to analyze his political prospects by province, and by district within provinces. All politics is local. Muqtada’s political support is fluid. He is blamed for poor GoI ministry performance (in his ministries) and the sluggish performance of the Baghdad and Maysan provincial governates. But Muqtada is helped by the poor provincial governance in the remaining 8 southern provinces, and poor non-Sadrist GoI ministry performance. Actually, you could write a thesis on his strengths and weaknesses by province.
Muqtada also has a PR problem with Iraqi sunni arabs and Kurds. The Sunni Arabs and Kurds in parliament have been cheering on the attacks on Muqtada. (Many of them want the IA to attack Badr next. :LOL: )
Ayaz, why do you think Muqtada and Chalabi have remained such close allies? They were close allies back in March, 2003. But Chalabi remains Muqtada’s closest ally in Iraq, even today. Both in April and August 2004, Chalabi remained loyal to Muqtada. Why?
On another note, do you think Khamenai has been backing Abu Deraa (an excuse for a human being.)
Peace,
Anand, I do not know much about Chalabi except that he is a very prominent figure in terms of the politics in Iraq however if I was to take a guess on why they are close allies it is because that Moqtada and Chalabi both share a common interest that is Iran.
Having said that you also have to remember that Moqtada is politically very naive and Chalabi maybe the person who is working behind the scenes. Given his track record it would not be surprising. Chalabi is involved in the government now too on the recommendation of Maliki himself which is surprising to myself.
As for Abu Deraa, I have only found one blogger claiming or rather indicating that he has protection by the Iranians and given his track record I would be very skeptical. Other than that I have never found any other sources linking him to Iran. Moqtada has distanced himself from Abu Deraa and does not consider him a part of his party after his atrocities.
Furthermore there are rumours he is in Iran but not under the protection of the Iranians rather the Iraqis there. However I doubt he will stay long there once the authorities find out he is in the country.
Regards
Ayaz
“Moqtada is politically very naive.” Yeah, he reminds me of President Bush, except that President Bush is slightly more articulate :LOL:
The connection between Chalabi and Muqtada is deeper than Iran. Chalabi reminds me of Willy Brown, former California speaker and San Francisco Mayor. Chalabi has a way of surprising people.
You are right that Muqtada has distanced himself from Abu Deraa. The IRGC Kuds force created Muqtada’s JAM (be creating their officer corps and cadre.) Unfortunately, much of JAM was loyal to Khamenei or organized crime rather than Muqtada. This is why Muqtada quietly accented to the IA and MNF-I attacking “rogue” JAM. Abu Deraa was part of the rogue JAM.
Many Iraqis believe that Abu Deraa is close to the IRGC Kuds. It is hard for Iraqis to believe that one of their own, created and supported by Iraqis, is capable of such horrors.
Among the MNF-I, it was widely believed that Iran was supporting Shia extremists and encouraging them to attack Sunni Arab civilians, presumably in hopes of exacerbating Iraq’s civil war and tension.
I haven’t figured out what Khamenei’s motives or objectives are in Iraq.
I think I could turn and live with animals, they are so placid and self-contained …
They do not lie awake in the dark and weep for their sins;
They do not make me sick discussing their duty to God;
Not one is dissatisfied, not one is demented with the mania of owning things;
Not one kneels to another, nor to his kind that lived thousands of years ago.
–Walt Whitman
Peace,
Anand, IRGC did not create JAM that is a very widespread rumour which makes no sense at all given that most of the personnels of JAM are people who live in the South of Iraq and for them to get training or be inflitrated by the likes of IRGC would be very hard to digest for a number of reasons. IRGC has a hand in terms of aiding Moqtada and his army. And JAM are not loyal to Ayatollah Khamenai. The thoughts of JAM on the whole Marjiyyah system reeks of dislike hence for them to leave their own Marjas and support another would not make sense given their whole stance on Marjiyyah.
The problem with JAM is too many personnels are not following the line of Moqtada and are guilty of taking things into their own hands. The incidents of 15th Shabaan in Karbala is a prime example of this and that prompted Moqtada to call for a ceasefire to reform his militia.
I do not think it is hard for one to believe that Abu Deraa being an Iraqi is capable of this. Most people forget that people like Abu Deraa lived under Saddam for 35 years and now have to deal with another occupation which is causing them to lose their head. Many of these likes who caused the killings a number of Sunnis were people who had enough of everything and just took matters into their own hand. Fustration in the government is going to lead to this and Maliki currently needs to realise this. There is no basic services even after 5 years of having some sort of Government that is why many Iraqis are losing faith in politicians.
Regards
Ayaz
Salaam Aleikum to you too Ayaz.
The allegation is not that JAM foot soldiers are IRGC Kuds force, (that would be ludicrous) but that the officer corp and senior cadre has been massively augmented by IRGC Kuds force affiliated Special Groups (Ramzan Corps . . . {Ramadan is called Ramzan in Urdu and Persian.}) It takes many years to build effective leadership in military organization. Think about a football (soccer for us Americans) team. Even if every player on the team is amazing, the team as a whole can be awful unless the players learn to work together as a team. The same is true of a military organization. Muqtada was forced to incorporate IRGC Kuds or IRGC Kuds trained officers to lead his forces without sufficient vetting. As a result, much of the nominal JAM was not loyal to him (or as he put it loyal to Iran rather than to him.) This was a major cause Muqtada’s cease fire. And attempt to regain control over all of JAM. Muqtada has quietly acquiesced to attacks on ‘rogue’ JAM by the IP, IA and MNF-I for this same reason.
The IRGC Kuds force operates in Iraq through their Ramzan Corps (further dived into three smaller organization) and Hezbollah from Lebanon. They train the senior cadre leadership of Shia militias (most of which are not JAM based on Petraeus’ testimony.) They have provided more limited training to thousands of foot soldiers. They also provide substantial money and equipping. (The large artillery pieces that fire on the International Zone and other parts of Baghdad, as well as ammunition, maintenance, spare parts, and training to use them comes from the IRGC Kuds.)
These activities have lead to a major backlash. See question 34 from http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/poll/2008/0308opinion.pdf
(68% of Iraqis want American help with respect to Iran.)
Q34 For each item I name, please tell me if you think the United States should or should not have a future role in that area:
Providing training and weapons to the Iraqi army
Mar08
%
Should
76
Should not
23
Refused/don’t know
1
Providing financial aid for reconstruction within Iraq
Mar08
%
Should
73
Should not
26
Assisting in the security of Iraq in terms of Iran
Mar08
%
Should
68
Should not
31
Refused/don’t know
–
Assisting in the security of Iraq in terms of Turkey
Mar08
%
Should
66
Should not
34
Refused/don’t know
–
Participating in security operations against al Qaeda or foreign jihadis in Iraq
Mar08
%
Should
80
Should not
19
Refused/don’t know
1
It is clear that most Sadrists do not like Khamenei. (I would distinguish between the millions of Muqtada’s political followers and relatively few fighters who fight in JAM.)
Many Iraqis share your frustration with GoI national ministry execution, and provincial governance execution. Many blame the entire UIA.
The only point you make that I might differ with is regarding Abu Deraa. He is so cruel that many Iraqis don’t want to accept that he is one of them. Many insist that he is with Khamenei.
See this post by one of my favorite Iraqi bloggers on Abu Deraa: http://ejectiraqikkk.blogspot.com/2008/04/government-aims-for-muqtadas-balls.html
Regarding: “Will Sadr declare open war?”
I noticed that MNC-I commaning LTG Austin was reaching out to Muqtada in Wednesday’s briefing (he was trying hard to make his comments consistent with Rice’s which were not as accommodating), while making it clear that he couldn’t comment on any negotiations between the GoI and Al Sadr.
Now if I can end with a question, I have a feeling that the UIA will claim that most of the problems in Iraq are caused by the resistance (Baathists, Takfiris, Iran, incompetent occupiers.) That if not for the resistance, security, the economy, governance and the quality of life would have been much better. Do you think that this platform can save them in the upcoming Iraqi elections? I think it will help them with some Iraqi voters, but that they will still lose many seats overall.
Updated Sadr video on Sadr from today.
http://therealnews.com/web/index.php?thisdataswitch=0&thisid=1398&thisview=item&renewx=2008-04-24+09%3A33%3A18#
There is some normalcy in Basrah for the first time since 2003, some would say 1990 or 1980:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article3671861.ece
What this article doesn’t emphasize is that many of the militias that have been driven out were not JAM.
Now the question is who gets credit? Muqtada will claim credit for his nonviolent cease fire, and calling JAM off. Dawa will claim credit. So will many other political parties. The test will come in October.
ISCI and Fadheela will likely loose seats. But who will gain them?
Peace,
Now if I can end with a question, I have a feeling that the UIA will claim that most of the problems in Iraq are caused by the resistance (Baathists, Takfiris, Iran, incompetent occupiers.) That if not for the resistance, security, the economy, governance and the quality of life would have been much better. Do you think that this platform can save them in the upcoming Iraqi elections? I think it will help them with some Iraqi voters, but that they will still lose many seats overall.
If UIA claims that the problems have hindered the progress and the problems as you have outlined Iran, Takfiris, Baathists and incomptent occupiers then they are going to shoot themselves in the foot. If there are incompetent occupiers then why are they in the region in the first place? Takfiris have gone quiet over the last year or so and most of the conflict is inter Shia hence that is point to hurt them too. That leaves Baathists and Iran, UIA cannot play the Iran card because the public might not appreciate it, not every Iraqi in the country is against the aid of Iranian be it even military aid. UIA cannot hold Moqtada responsible for the hindering of progress either given that he has been in the same boat as them yet managed to established the biggest social welfare entity in Iraq and doing much more than the Government. Both have had similar time period, similar circumstances however one has had much more resources yet failed to deliver hence the question has to be asked why the failure given the resources? Infact where are these resources? Billions that was to be pumped into Iraq are missing which no one has a clue about.
The blogger you linked to has taken the story from another blogger by the name of ‘Eye Raki’ which I have already specified in my previous post as to what I make of his blog. Why do Iraqi insist that he has to be with Khamenai? If the precieve Ayatollah Khamenai to be murderer then they can keep their assumptions to themselves for all I care. Abu Deraa is not with Khamenai nor given any protection by him.
Regards
Ayaz
Ayaz,
Muqtada’s people have 6 Iraqi ministries, including health, education and transportation. To the degree that Muqtada’s safety net is a success, it is a testimony to the Iraqi ministries he controls and the overall GoI. Some Iraqis do not realize that the health/education/transportation ministries are part of the GoI and funded by the GoI because Muqtada puts his own pictures inside ministry building and next to ministry projects.
Muqtada has three sources of funding for his “informal” activities in this order:
1) Siphoning funds from his 6 GoI ministries
2) Khamenai
3) Organized crime (other political parties also participate in organized crime)
Ayaz, do you believe that Muqtada has done a good job running the health, education, and transportation ministries? If so, doesn’t Muqtada have to share credit for these ministries with the rest of the Maliki led government, as well as the funding approved for his ministries by the Iraqi parliament.
As an American, I would also note billions of dollars in American grants have gone the Muqtada’s ministries and their functions. American taxpayers have contributed to Muqtada’s success.
Overall, however, I am encouraged that you regard the Iraqi health, education and transportation ministries as successful. In many Shia majority areas, I would agree with your assessment. My observation, however, is that Muqtada has not done as good a job providing services in Al Anbar, Salahadin, and the Sunni Arab portions of Diyala province. Muqtada’s mandate is to serve all Iraqis with the GoI ministries he controls.
I would also note, that providing health care, education and transportation to every Iraqi is Muqtada’s responsibility. It isn’t the responsibility of other political parties that hold other GoI ministries. Other parties are responsible for their own ministries.
I like ‘Eye Raki.’ He seems quite well informed about the dealings of the 4 Grand Ayatollahs and the rest of the Najaf fiqh. He seems to be a good source of information regarding An Najaf, Karbala and the inner dealings of the Iraqi parliament.
To everyone else (excluding Ayaz): Muqtada killed Eye Raki’s dad Sayyid Abdul Majid al-Khoei–the son of Sayyid Abul-Qassim Al-Khoei—on April 10, 2003.
Peace,
Moqtada’s role in the ministry is much less, yes his personnels are taking care of things that they are incharge of but their liason with the Government is not that great. And from the ground reports in Iraq I know that the funds are not coming from GoI since GoI do not have the allocated funds that they were suppose to receive after the invasion. If you get a chance have a look at the missing billions documentary, it specifies how the money that was set aside for the Government has never made it. Furthermore, if the GoI had so much money to fund well these ministries then why are the women in Iraq resorting to prostitution to make a living? Mahdi Army out of the Government are the biggest social welfare entity, their role in the Government is quiet restricted given their conflicts with the GoI.
If he has done it without using the resources of GoI then the credit goes to him alone, if not then the Government can take the credit. But to add weight to this if the Government knows he is doing well in these sectors then why bring a conflict on him?
With all due respect, I do not think the US billions has even made it to the hands of the rightful receivers. Health and basic needs are still lacking and given the amount that was specified these should have been up and running in full functionality yet the reality is far from it. Have a look at the documentary I stated above and see the fate of the American taxpayers.
Overall, however, I am encouraged that you regard the Iraqi health, education and transportation ministries as successful. In many Shia majority areas, I would agree with your assessment. My observation, however, is that Muqtada has not done as good a job providing services in Al Anbar, Salahadin, and the Sunni Arab portions of Diyala province. Muqtada’s mandate is to serve all Iraqis with the GoI ministries he controls.
That is actually a very biased assumption given that I know of people living in pre-dominant Sunni areas who have been equally treated by Moqtada as the Shias have been treated. Given the circumstances in which Moqtada had to operate it is impressive to see how he has managed to make himself a very powerful broker in the Government and at the same time make his party a big social welfare entity in Iraq. The Iraqi Government should have kept the ceasefire alive rather than going for a conflict. I would simply say leave Moqtada and his people to their positions and see what can be done rather than cause conflicts because it only harms the Iraqi civilians and puts the Government into more chaos which gives the occupational forces more time in Iraq.
Everything I read from people’s blog which come from their meetings and their visits are taken with a pinch of salt given the character of the person and their views. For me nothing is certain fact from these posts of meetings and dealings since it is selective talk at its best.
Regards
Ayaz
Ayaz, I want Muqtada to be as successful as possible running his ministries because that is good for Iraq. I don’t care that much who wins between the different Iraqi political parties. Some Shia have said that it wouldn’t be a bad thing for the other major political parties to suffer an electoral setback.
“Moqtada’s role in the ministry is much less, yes his personnels are taking care of things that they are incharge of but their liason with the Government is not that great”
The funding for these ministries come from the Iraqi government. This said, many in the Iraqi government, MNF-I and State Department are frustrated working with some Muqtada ministry officials. Simple example: the health ministry requires an immense logistical support network. MNF-I and the ISC (Iraqi Support Command within the IA {Iraqi Army}) can and do help. But coordination is sub optimal. This is hurting overall ministry performance.
Another point is that the many health clinics built, renovated or upgraded by American taxpayer funds need to be transferred to Muqtada’s health ministry and operated on an ongoing basis in a specific way. This transfer has been problematic in many cases. Although to be sure, there have been many successful transfers as well.
“And from the ground reports in Iraq I know that the funds are not coming from GoI since GoI do not have the allocated funds that they were suppose to receive after the invasion. If you get a chance have a look at the missing billions documentary, it specifies how the money that was set aside for the Government has never made it.”
Elaboration? I am not referring to funds from 2003 and 2004, but the GoI budget today. The Iraqi finance ministry sends funding to specific ministries including Muqtada’s ministries. Whether it sends enough money, or the money is spent effectively enough are different questions. (I don’t think the GoI is spending enough money on these priorities or spending its money productively enough.)
“Furthermore, if the GoI had so much money to fund well these ministries then why are the women in Iraq resorting to prostitution to make a living?”
Does this suggest that Muqtada has done a mixed job with his GoI ministries?
“Mahdi Army out of the Government are the biggest social welfare entity, their role in the Government is quiet restricted given their conflicts with the GoI.” Muqtada’s supporters are in the government. Most of their funding and patronage comes from the government.
“If he has done it without using the resources of GoI then the credit goes to him alone, if not then the Government can take the credit.” The credit should also partly go to who funds the projects. Most of Muqtada’s money comes from his ministries. It is also true that Muqtada gets some money from Khamenei and organized crime independent of the GoI. None of Iraq’s political parties should be engaging in organized crime, although several do. Khamenai should give all his money directly to the GoI instead of to Muqtada, Dawa, Hakim, Fadheela, Iraqi Hezbollah, Kurdish parties, etc. Without these two revenue sources, Muqtada has no money except for through the GoI. He should be judged by how efficiently he spends GoI money.
“But to add weight to this if the Government knows he is doing well in these sectors then why bring a conflict on him?” This gets to the question who has greater responsibility for the current conflict. Muqtada’s followers should stop shooting at ISF and GoI representatives from non Muqtada ministries when they directly distribute food and other social services. (Muqtada believes that all services should only be provided through his own militias in their areas.) JAM should also stop attacking other Baghdad neighborhoods with their large artillery pieces. Currently the IA doesn’t have (with the exception of 8th IAD) mortars larger than 60 mm. JAM has many of them, and is firing them quite frequently, including at the International Zone. This very much offends Iraq’s parliamentarians and threatens the lives of Muqtada’s own 32 parliamentarians.
At the same time, the GoI must be willing to negotiate a compromise with Muqtada. Both sides need to compromise.
“With all due respect, I do not think the US billions has even made it to the hands of the rightful receivers.” In many cases you are right. “Health and basic needs are still lacking and given the amount that was specified these should have been up and running in full functionality yet the reality is far from it.” This suggests that Muqtada has a mixed performance with the health ministry, and that coordination between Muqtada, other parts of the GoI, ISF, and MNF is deficient. I think that American tax payers should provide more grants to the GoI, including Muqtada’s ministries.
“That is actually a very biased assumption given that I know of people living in pre-dominant Sunni areas who have been equally treated by Moqtada as the Shias have been treated.” This is true. The health ministry has had many successes and failures. Muqtada has had some successes.
“Given the circumstances in which Moqtada had to operate it is impressive to see how he has managed to make himself a very powerful broker in the Government and at the same time make his party a big social welfare entity in Iraq.” Muqtada has real achievements. Some other parties, however are upset that Muqtada gives the impression that the health ministry comes from him rather than the GoI. Personally I don’t’ care how much credit Muqtada takes as long as he delivers improved health services to the Iraqi people.
“Everything I read from people’s blog which come from their meetings and their visits are taken with a pinch of salt given the character of the person and their views. For me nothing is certain fact from these posts of meetings and dealings since it is selective talk at its best.” Very true.
“The Iraqi Government should have kept the ceasefire alive rather than going for a conflict.” I hope a negotiated settlement happens soon.
Ayaz, some of my friends have been looking for an Iraqi blog that is pro Muqtada. There is none in the blogosphere, although Raed Jarrar comes the closest (but he isn’t nearly as knowledgeable as you are.) Please consider starting your own blog. You seem to be partly sympathetic to Muqtada (importantly your support comes from a deep level of understanding), and your perspectives would be much appreciated.