Today, I want to ask you a simply question.
Let us assume that Russia does not intervene and that, with time and effort, the nationalists regain control of most of the eastern and southern Ukraine. Let is further assume that the referendum wanted by the Russian-speakers is either not held or ignored, while the Presidential election goes ahead and that Poroshenko or Tymoshenko get’s “kind of elected” in a farcical election which, however, the USA and its EU protectorate will immediately recognize as “legitimate”.
What will happen after that?
Say in June? And July. In August and then in September. Let’s even try to imagine what the Ukraine will look like in October. So 6 months from now.
Now, once you have made your prediction first, then ask yourself what would happen in Russia does intervene between now and the end of May.
Then compare the two outcomes and tell me which one you prefer and why.
In other words – would a Russian military intervention make things as seen six months down the road better or worse?
I am curious as to what each of you will reply :-)
Many thanks and kind regards to all,
The Saker
[PS: I think I have beat the flu (finally!). Should be back to normal by tomorrow.]
I’ll take a shot. The ability of Russia to refrain from intervening, will be greater than the ability of the Kiev government to provoke them to intervene, given that the eastern Ukrainians *may* be able to fend off, at great expense to life and limb, the Kiev-Neo-nazis. And we will be left with a total utter mess, and in effect a stalemate.
I think that the last, the very utter last thing Russia wants is to be drawn into Ukraine. I think a split Ukraine with Russia in one half and Nato in the other is exactly what is being planned.
Russia should not intervene. Ukraine is already bankrupt and there is no way the economy will revamp (which is mostly based on the east). Ukraine will not be able to pay for gas in which case its economy will still lag. The US and Europe do not want to support the Ukrainian economy. The US/EU already show their fascist side, so they will loose people’s trust overtime.
Russia can just wait, develop Crimea, and play both Europe and eastern economic expansion. Consolidate the economic base, expand industrial development and enhance the National pride.
No Russian intervention? Civil war because the junta will not stop till they have either subjugated the east or been defeated. Russian intervention? WWIII (which seems to be what the west is counting on.
I believe the reports that Russia is already sending ‘helpers’ to counter the CIA and junta forces. If the situation continues to escalate (this seems to be Kiev’s immediate objective) I don’t see how Russia can remain sitting on the fence and risk the consequences of a Ukrainian civil war. All paths seem black to me :(
Prognosticating is like describing the form of water, with that caveat, I say that the greed and bloodlust of the puppet masters, having thoroughly gelatinized the brains of the useful idiots, mercenaries, etc, will overcome any sense of reason left however small, and they will “go for it.”
And since nyet, is an alien concept to them, they will invariably force a reckoning and be destroyed by the very forces they awakened in trying to dominate.
There, now, isn’t that sufficiently vague for a prophecy?
In all seriousness, I don’t know what’s gonna happen, but I don’t think the Russian government and assorted allies for a return to normality, will disappoint.
The future is a shining spectacle.
If the nationalists regain control, the referendum will NOT be held. There will undoubtedly be some brutality against the Russian speakers, but for the most part they will just have to go back to whatever life they have left. The story will disappear.
If Russia does intervene, there will be a few weeks of bloody warfare against the nationalists but things will then settle down. The US will NOT intervene. Some of the EU countries may continue to beat the wardrums—perhaps even make a stupid move—, but Euro businesses will finally step up and say stop. Trade with Russia is too important to them.
But I think there is a third possibility. If east and south Ukraine manage to hold out and establish their own independence, the US will do the same thing they are doing in Syria—fund terrorist from anyplace in the world to come in and fight against free Ukraine.
I actually think the third alternative is the one that will come about.
RT is reporting assault preparations around Slavyansk now – these people will not stop until Russia has no choice I think – as I said, I see a black road ahead and 6 months seems an eternity and all outcomes hidden by the mists of the unknown…
I am very concerned.
I agree with those who have said that this does not seem to have been a miscalculation. (Who truly did the ‘calculation’ and organizing is another story. It wasn’t team Obumble or blathering Haircut.) Ukraine is a basket of scenarios right now.
The provocation is ongoing and will. not. stop. So that is the 6 month outcome of no Russian response. NATO bylaws aside, any manner of “protection” treaty can be extended to Banderstan at any time. Attacks are by any means. Cyprus, Syria, and Ukraine all have Gazprom in common.
Ultimately if I had to guess I think a generational war would quite handily coincide with a reset of certain currencies on the global level, and the calculus would be that if we are not all showering in unstable isotopes for the next 30k years, the world will become a paradise for a certain type of exquisitely evolved parasite.
from a realist’s point of view, Russia should stay out, let the donbassians fight for (and they’ll win) independence like in Kossovo.
american public definitely not in the mood to interfere with other nations (but elites differ as they are almost always chickenhawkish).
What are you realising that Putin won’t support the rebels? Fuck, I’ve lost so much respect for him, he hasn’t even provided them with any weapons! The border is wide open and with some anti-tank guided missiles around, none of Kiev’s troops would be able to poke their noses into any town in the South-East. Hell some real spetznaz, he’s being accused of it every day anyway!
As to what will happen in 6 months, if Russia looks so impotent on victory day, there are plenty of people in the Caucuses and beyond will want to organise their own independence referendums, with generous US support no doubt.
With the Syria precedent, I think Russia can’t intervene directly, but a couple of brigades of spetznas and all the weapons they want could have made the rebels laugh at the rabble Kiev is sending their way right now(which won’t be a rabble in 6 months BTW, it’s the only thing they will definitely fund).
I’m so pissed off at him right now.
Go in as soon as a sufficiently bloody pretext arises. Taking all the East and South which will then (probably) become an independent country though closely associated with Moscow, is paradoxically the best way to keep Western Ukraine out of Nato for now: the West would have to recognize the partition first, in which case Lemberg as a Nato base isn’t a big deal (though sentimentally speaking it is a pity about Kiev…) Also: the Krim without land access is not fully viable militarily. Six months from now the South East will be stable and happy it isn’t ruled by the IMF, perhaps even part of Russia. Transnistria will then also has a non-oddball future. The downside for Russia, namely demonisation and
economic war, is already here. “Il faut crever l’absces” as they say in France and see what comes out: Selon moi, less puss than expected.
1. Russia does not intervene, the putschists gain control of all Ukraine with much propaganda cackling from the Nulanites.
Outcome, by October, let alone by winter, when the cold bites and gas is unaffordable and the ‘austerity’ bites even harder, there will be great social turmoil, which will be attributed to Russian agitators and ‘terrorists’ and a savage reprisal would ensue. Give the umber of ethnicRussians among the victims Russia will have to intervene belatedly.
2. Russia intervenes soon– the game becomes very hard to predict given the NATO forces amassed all around. All hell breaks loose
Anonymous 69
Sure intervention triggers a military response despite NATO saying it will not intervene. Obama says the Kiev government is elected right now and troops and military gear and missiles are moving into position. Outcome for Europe and Ukraine is a cold winter at best and tactical nuclear war at worst. America does not care if Europe goes down and in some ways benefits by greater bellicosity.
Russian government wins by intervention if no clash with NATO.
According to Paul Craig Roberts, the window for military operations is closing fast. His argument is that Russia needs to act soon in order to pre-empt NATO, before they have time to amass troops in strategic places.
On the other hand, by intervening now , Russia will lose the PR battle, as they will be labelled the “aggressor” in this conflict.
I am suppose to be studying and not doing a SWOT analysis, but this is my quick observation
No intervention:
Strengths to the argument:
a. Russian can continue to claim it was not the aggressor and blame the hysteria on the US/NATO allies. Kind of hard for the media to say “Bad Russia” when Russia does not bite. People will being to notice.
b. NATO / US will need to pick up the tab – all those planes and troops they’ve send, it is going to start costing them money.
c. There will still be skirmishes, innocent people will die and all of this will be the responsibility of NATO/ US. Think of all the images we are seeing now, of grandparents, woman and someone capturing a pic of US soldiers doing the killing.
d. I do not know for how long NATO and US soldiers will be able to sleep with fascists. It is one thing to kill muslims (followers of Islam), it is another thing to kill Christians (white Christians). The US army has a right wing problem, their right wing though is very Christian.
e. Winter – someone needs to pay the bill, and “brr” winter is cold. Cold makes people miserable.
f. IMF agreements come in force. This will affect pension, pay, etc, people are going to be pissed at their own country
g. Crimea – huge Chinese investment announced for Crimea / followed by huge Russia investment in their shipyard. All of this money coming in, all of these jobs, the rest of Ukraine is going to realize they should have gone with Russia
h. Russia – has other deals in the works (BRICS meeting in June, new oil deal with China at the end of the month, new deal with China to build a new canal in Nicaragua
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-plans-to-join-nicaragua-canal-project/499603.html
http://ru-facts.com/news/view/34694.html
http://www.wnd.com/2014/05/russia-joins-china-in-building-nicaragua-canal/
i. Sergei Lavrov – he was in Latin / South America, last week, I believe. Lot of interest about entering in Free Trade with Russia
http://www.ibtimes.com/russian-foreign-minister-sergei-lavrovs-trip-latin-america-may-be-aimed-irking-us-1579671
Russia economy – does not need Europe. That got to hurt.
j. Petro dollar – Past month there has been all of these talks regarding agreements, Billion dollar talks (Russia – Iran deal regarding Russian good for Iran oil), and all the deals there was a hint that they will be using other currency. Not the dollar. This is going to hurt the US/NATO. They are going to be spending a lot of money in Ukr and their economies are going to be weak.
k. Elections in the US – November, if US soldiers start coming back in body bags Americans will not be pleased. Same for Europe. People are going to demand more accountability, like how the hell is this going to be funded, and why are my taxes going up….
Weakness to the argument
a. Putin will be seen as weak by the public and NATO. It will be hard for regular folks to understand the value of waiting. That by making all of Ukr suffer (Russian separatists – who will continue to fight / regular Ukr who will see their pension disappear and realize that fascists, will being to kill indiscriminately) they might be more willing to reflect back on how good they had it, before the coup and if only they accepted Russia’s deal
Sometimes the grass is greener on the other side.
b. NATO/US – cannot be trusted, they just may make things worst.
c. US elections. Republicans. Do I need to say more? Ugh.
d. The more time passes, you end up leaving a lot of things to chance. Sometimes it is better to play with the cards you have, than the cards you think you might get.
Anyone want to do opportunities and threats?
I have to go and finish my assignment on diabetes and look up some Cdn stats. Sigh.
Lets assume that a/Russia doesn’t interfere b/pseudo presidential elections are held c/people in the south and in the east try to organize a better resistance and now we are in october 2014 well the outcome in the short term (october)is grim because the West will at any cost infiltrate more and more mercenaries/lunatics/terrorists/nazis into these two regions so by the aforementioned month we will have a/different massacres growing up in scale as people will definitely try to resist b/probably real ethnic cleansing on a large scale c/jews fleeing to the entity of the Beast d/having taken the russian passivity as weakness which we know it isn’t they will then try to infiltrate Russia from the ukrainian territories and then again from Chechen region and eventually destabilizing Russia from within wherever there is a republic with a majority of muslim population through all the wahabi/takfiris that Turkey and Saudis have cultivated on behalf of the west as trojan horses,the dispute on the islands Kyril with Japan will be reactivated.Conclusion:in the long term Russia will respond being confronted with a real existential threat .Poor Palestine will be drown with more rabid criminal settlers.And the russian ukrainian people?they will have payed the highest price as always victims have throughout history.Meanwhile Russia will go again through a terrible trauma.
In terms of the future it will be in the hands of Russia in the long term because the empire is decaying and dying whereas Russia is reemerging from its ashes,which it always does(lesson from the last centuries).The West will not stop and listen to Lavrov and go back to the Geneva accord because the West doesn’t want to acknowledge their loss nor their decline.Its an issue of life and death to them as their loss mark the end of a period that started in 1495.They are focusing on their denial of reality and their grand pursuit of the absolute control of the pipelines energy routes.The lesson should have been learned from what happened in Syria and the constant policy of Russia to go back to international law and the UN Charter impeding a more robust syrian government response.The West took it as a sign of weakness till september 3 2013 when Russia,Iran ,China ,Hezbollah and the Syrian government draw a red line to what the West can or cannot do.I remember writing a pamphlet in form of an obituary(of the West) the day of the third UNSC veto by Russia and China because at that point it became apparent to all to see that the zionist empire had entered an irreversible coma .
My 2 cents. I can be as wrong as anyone else. Forty years ago I predicted that McDonald’s was doomed to failure.
Scenario 1 (the West Wins).
After that? Well, there is never an end. US leases naval base in Odessa. Missile defense installations. NATO membership. The narrative moves on. Litigation for gas price offsets to compensate for the theft of Crimea. Russian language TV is gone for good in the interests of National Unity. Economy continues to spiral downwards. The West continues to threaten Russia and anyone else standing in their way. Life goes on.
Scenario 2 (Russia steps in).
As the only tactical choice for Russian intervention is a decisive move, all of Ukraine is seized as a Protectorate pending internationally monitored elections and referendums. The West shriek like screaming banshees, but no hot war ensues. Some local skirmishes and vendetta killings amount to a significant loss of life (some hundreds). The Ukrainian Federation is shaped. The sanctions imposed by the West have significantly impacted Europe, but not the US or the RF. The West continues to threaten Russia and anyone else standing in their way. Life goes on.
– DM
I’m going to be really obstinate and not make those assumptions, Saker – because I think it is important to still support nationhood in the best sense, federated, whatever, up to the Ukrainians to decide.
You can call me a pollyanna and for sure I don’t know very much about Ukraine or Russia for that matter – I simply want those mothers and grandmothers and children, all of them, who are not all of them monsters of one kind or another, to have back their Ukrainian flag that the Right Sector has stolen from them. Surely the very small band of thugs cannot hold out against an united country, if Ukrainians can listen to their better angels and support that.
I can’t fault any that wish for closer ties to Russia at this point – clearly Crimea has benefited from annexation. But such a large country with so much potential – surely Ukrainians for the most part would want to keep their nation peacefully together! If all of them, or most of them would reject the thuggish ways of this paltry regime, along with the false friends that support them, how could such a small pack of vultures succeed?
The tactics of the thugs are being unravelled – I don’t really know how that affects the population at large, but it must – and again I can’t fault them for yearning for help from Russia, that it come speedily to save fathers, brothers, even sisters from oppression and slaughter.
I wish for them courage, and strength, and the compassion of the God of peace be with them all! Wishful thinking indeed, but I don’t feel qualified to prophesy or to diminish in any way the prospects for the best outcome as I hope and pray will occur.
Best I can do, sorry!
Putin waits. The neocons and nazis continue to be monsters for a while. Obama blames it on Putin and thus imposes the very sanctions that he in fact knows will cause the EU countries to say WAIT A MINUTE we’re not going down with you. This weakens the offensive by a long shot. Also, the sanctions give Putin the ability to enact Glazyev’s nose-thumbing anti-sanction program which includes cashing in dollar-based bonds to such an extent that the US money system truly does implode.
Thanks to subversives in US government, military, media, and business who have been quietly, for years, getting all their ducks in a row for precisely this moment, the devastating effects of the implosion impact almost excluslively the .01%, so that further military aggression simply cannot be afforded.
A knight on a beautiful steed stops by to pick me up and we two as well as the rest of the world except the banksters, who are finally in jail, live happily ever after.
-Ap
There’s such a strategy as letting an inept, crazy opponent die by his own sword by leaving him alone, letting his capricious madness run its course. You find it sometimes in history, and more rarely in politics nowadays. One case I remember is that of Mexico’s revolutionary government letting the Cristero sect run its mad course to oblivion.
As the Saker has pointed out, under the gang currently in power in Kiev, the future in Ukraine looks very dire: they are offering nothing but austerity for the people. I suspect the only real program they will come up with will be some nationalist propaganda about rebirth, which will include the “cleansing violence” common in Eastern European history earlier last century. Since most of the money promised by the West will go straight to pay their bondholders, plus money to keep Kiev’s right-wing goons fed, and the rest will be looted by the oligarchs and their toadies, sooner rather than later there will be another Maidan, one that unlike the last one will be nation wide, including the Western regions, and the banderites will be facing the anger of their own people, on top of that of those in the east and south. I don’t think they will stand much of a chance, and any massacre will push what’s left of the Ukranian army to intervene and wipe them out. The government will have lost all legitimacy by then and will easily collapse. What happens after is anybody’s guess.
Russia is better off waiting this one out. After all, given how quickly the cover up over the Odessa massacre has been picked apart in the Russian ‘net, the banderites will soon be running out of tricks. I can’t help thinking that the opposition among the Ukranian police and army is growing day by day, and I don’t think it would be unreasonable to expect revolts for which the banderites will be ill prepared.
Scenario 1:
The putsch regime takes control of eastern and southern Ukraine thereby alienating a large part of the population, first and foremost the people who see the violence first-hand and can’t be brainwashed by Ukrainian media. Poroshenko is “elected” President and continues the IMF’s “structural adjustment” policies thereby alienating many people in the West as well. Regime in Kiev has no popular support anywhere in Ukraine, infighting between oligarchs and Nazis. Gazprom cuts natural gas supplies to Ukraine and when winter comes all hell breaks lose.
Scenario 2:
Russia intervenes and eliminates many Nazis, but the leaders Parubiy, Yarosh, etc. escape to western Ukraine. “International community” is outraged, NATO forces enter western Ukraine. Eastern and southern Ukraine follow Crimea’s example: secession, referendum, accession to the Russian Federation. NATO gets its new Cold War with the front line running through Ukraine instead of Germany.
I prefer Scenario 2 because it will save many people in eastern and southern Ukraine. The new Cold War is potentially much more dangerous than anything in Scenario 1 but only as long as we (the people in the West) let our psychopathic “leaders” get away with this nonsense. Washington’s fifth column in Germany is currently being exposed to a considerable extent and if the United States goes overboard with the anti-Russian campaign, it might end up losing its pivotal satellite state in Europe.
I have read a pro-West Russian blogger who says that Putin has painted himself in a corner and now MUST invade Urkaine. I don’t know if he will or not, but if he does not, Urkaine will become another Greece and will owe the EU billions. the EU, unlike Russia, will not forgive or be lenient. Austerity will further wreckt the Ukrainian economy although the EU will buy some manufactured goods from there. How much is the real question and no one can answer that.
Based on what Oleg Tsarov said, it is hard to believe that Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast will be interested in participating in presidential elections if they successfully hold their independence referendums on May 11. Kiev Junta is broke as it is, so it will be a real stretch to expect that they can successfully control population of some 15 million people in those two areas. If we add to that mix Zaporizhia Oblast, Odessa Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, thats another almost 10 million. All in all Kiev would have a task of controlling the population of some 20 million, similar number of people that Yugoslavia had, before it was dissolved.
Just during the Bosnian war (one of ex Yugo republics) all 3 sides had together almost 100,000 men under arms, but not much territory ever changed hands, regardless of some 50,000+ casualties. So based on that I don’t see any possibility of Kiev ever gaining full control of these territories, even if they succeed in controlling some major communication routes and city centers. How will things develop mostly depends on who is willing to foot the bill for military, or political settlement, and in that regard, as Donald Rumsfeld would say: There are too many unknown unknowns…
Pedro de Hungria says –
If the Resistance in the SE is crushed, Obama will have the new ‘president’ in phony balony election with fascists count the vote, invite NATO in. While NATO sits on Russian border and next to Crimea, with American naval base in Odessa, Kiev Nazis will murder there way around SE Ukraine. eliminating all opposition.
Putin has to keep SE Resistance alive by any means necessary. Hopefully Russian Army intervention can be avoided, but once Putin said he will not permit fascist massacre in SE, he cannot go back on his word without losing all credibility and popularity. Washington neo-cons are after Putin’s scalp over Syria. Since Washington will just keep pushing till they get him, Putin has nothing to lose by saving SE Resistance. Some Crimean and pro-Russian Chechnian ‘volunteers’ with anti-tank weapons would be a good start.
That’s lent question and exactly what Russian policy makers should be asking.
If Russia does absolutely nothing to help the east Ukrainians the the west will form an army of death squads ala Latin America, Iraq and many other places as is SOP for the CIA and they will kill a lot of people until Kiev has regained control.
If Russia can provide deniable covert support to prevent this from happening that would be they best option. This would mean assassinating the mid and high level managers and oligarchs involved.
If Russia will not do that then the plan must be to hope that eventually the Ukie coup government will collapse from economic troubles and lack od support even from west Ukraine.
But you can’t expect that to happen. If it is true that the zio-west wants to rule the globe (and it does) and that it needs to destroy Russia to do this (and it must) and that control of the Ukraine is a crucial step towards doing that (is it?) then you have to assume that the west will do what ever it must to keep hold of Ukraine. That means a purely dictatorial government which will be pawned off as a Xanadu-like democracy.
Russia can hope that eventually the masses in western Europe will figure out what is happening, but that could take a very long time. And a lot of damage can be done in the meantime.
And I’m not even sure that Anti-Russian Ukies will ever come to the conclusion that Russia was their best friend all along.
And once control of the East is regained that’s it. There wont be a politically acceptable cost to intervention.
So unless Russia can
1) Put together a plan to have the Ukie military overthrow the Junta (best option if available)
2) Use covert mean to ensure East Ukraine can defend itself (second best)
then
3) It should either intervene openly or accept that all of Ukraine will be part of NATO.
It will be 30% Kosovo, 70% the Spanish Civil War
I would like to widen the picture to one important point. Russia would not start any operation before the 26th of May, they’ll wait for the result of the EU-Election. In the moment many of right-oriented parties seem to have big success in this election and this could ‘distroy’ the EU like what it is in the moment.
But when Russia will move before then the EU-Gangster will win because everybody will look at Russia as an enemy and also believe that all stupid talk from the EU was right.
Maybe think about that?
Your question does not cover all possibilities. In my opinion Russia will not invade, but the Ukrainian army will not be able to regain Donbas. The presidential elections will not be successful. Even if a new president is declared, he/she will not have more authority than Turchinov. The western part will fall in severe depression in all cases.
Russia will not invade, because it won’t be necessary. Volunteers from other parts of Ukraine and from Russia will come to support the Donetsk Republic. Some army units will join the uprising. I also think that it is very possible to see some army general tople the “government” in Kiev.
It will be 30% Kosovo, and 70% the Spanish Civil War
One way to look at it is in comparison with 1914, a hundred years ago, with Serbia like the Russian-speaking Ukraine, Austria like the Ukrainian junta, NATO like Germany, and Russia still Russia. We know now from the records that Germany wanted war before Russia got too strong, so backed Austria every step of the way, having it reject a Serbian agreement to every Austrian demand, and go to war instead. What would have happened then if Russia had not come to the aid of Serbia, letting Serbia be overrun, as it was anyway in the short run (and has been again) ? Would the Romanovs have been overthrown by public opinion ? We know Rasputin advised against war. Would Germany have found another pretext for war when the next crisis developed ?
In comparison, what would happen now if Russia let the Russian-speaking Ukraine be overrun ? Would Putin be overthrown by public opinion ? Would NATO find another pretext for war when the next crisis develops, before Russia gets too strong ? (For example, I’ve heard two proposals recently, one today from a Heritage Foundation person testifying before Congress, that NATO demand that Russia evacuate the Crimea post haste.)
We now know what did happen when Russia came to the aid of Serbia in 1914: World War, revolution, the Bolsheviks, foreign intervention, terrible famine, widespread devastation. Is something comparable in the cards, if Russia comes to the aid of the Russian-speaking Ukraine ? Would the alternative, a fascist Ukraine on Russia’s doorstep, be worse ?
To me there are two main variables here and I just don’t know enough about either one of them.
First, I read a couple of accounts yesterday that seemed legitimate and said that NATO is planning some “exercises” in Ukraine this July, with troops from just about everywhere. If this is true, rather than just more provocation to get Russia involved now, I think it pretty much guarantees a major, all-out war. If this is just flaunting, making money for arms manufacturers and a new raison d’etre for NATO, and Russia continues to sit tight, one would ordinarily predict guerilla warfare (i.e., costly, interminable and ultimately unwinnable for the invaders, which in this case includes the crew in Kiev). At best it would be a good way for Kiev to keep their frenzied undesirables from attacking them, but the end result would be a failed state for the near future at least — but a failed state on land that has provided a major chunk of breadstuffs for a major chunk of the world, land under which a fair number of pipelines flow to Europe, and, perhaps most significantly, a land on which I believe 50 nuclear plants exist in various stages of repair, including one (Chernobyl) which requires constant monitoring at the very least. The problem is, if Russia were to intervene, all of these risks would multiply exponentially and the ruined soil, pipeline ruptures and severe nuclear risk could end up, well, catastrophic and not just for Ukraine. Europe would truly starve in the dark (fracking is a ruinous, *expensive* scam and there’s no way the terminals et. al. could even possibly be ready for another couple of years — at which point most of the wells here will already have run dry). But also, for gosh sakes, which way do the winds blow? I don’t think Russia really wants any more Ukrainian nuclear crud than she’s already been blessed with. And, considering that what goes around comes around, neither do I.
The second variable is the Ukrainian people themselves, or at the very least, the ethnically/culturally/linguistically more Russian population in the southern and eastern parts of this cobbled-together country. I’ve been pondering this a lot the past couple of days and almost posed you another one of my questions, Saker, but I’m still not sure I can phrase it properly. Some groups of people are more easily provoked than others, and given that the range of skills and behaviors attributable to genetics within any one group is always wider than any comparison you can make between them, I’m going to attribute this difference to cultural factors. (Also, now is hardly the time for a nature vs. nurture conversation.) But Saker, even you, way back when you first mentioned Ukraine and worried that what was going on might “open the gates of hell”, you lamented the passivity of the people in the culturally Russian areas. Now maybe Odessa changed that, but I’m guessing that there’s an intersection of a couple of long-term cultural factors going on and I’m thinking the people of the South East may be less easily provoked partly because of their Orthodox faith, and partly because of their longer collectivist experience, both as serfs, then briefly peasants, then workers.
So, this is a very long-winded way of saying I think Putin is being very wise to hold back. If the fighting comes, it will be awful, and endless, with a risk of severe permanent damage. Why the hell jump into that, or escalate it if there are any means whatsoever to avoid it. Ultimately it still depends on the will of the Ukrainian people.
One way to look at it is in comparison with 1914, a hundred years ago, with Serbia like the Russian-speaking Ukraine, Austria like the Ukrainian junta, NATO like Germany, and Russia still Russia. We know now from the records that Germany wanted war before Russia got too strong, so backed Austria every step of the way, having it reject a Serbian agreement to every Austrian demand, and go to war instead. What would have happened then if Russia had not come to the aid of Serbia, letting Serbia be overrun, as it was anyway in the short run (and has been again) ? Would the Romanovs have been overthrown by public opinion ? We know Rasputin advised against war. Would Germany have found another pretext for war when the next crisis developed ?
In comparison, what would happen now if Russia let the Russian-speaking Ukraine be overrun ? Would Putin be overthrown by public opinion ? Would NATO find another pretext for war when the next crisis develops, before Russia gets too strong ? (For example, I’ve heard two proposals recently, one today from a Heritage Foundation person testifying before Congress, that NATO demand that Russia evacuate the Crimea post haste.)
We now know what did happen when Russia came to the aid of Serbia in 1914: World War, revolution, the Bolsheviks, foreign intervention, terrible famine, widespread devastation. Is something comparable in the cards, if Russia comes to the aid of the Russian-speaking Ukraine ? Would the alternative, a fascist Ukraine on Russia’s doorstep, be worse ?
October 2014 Ukraine. Thousands of the most passionate voices of autonomy/separatism/Russia and Russian volunteers have been killed. NATO is in the process of building multiple bases in Ukraine. NATO has tens of thousands of troops in Ukraine. The Oligarchs are paid well and the fascist gangs are kept around to kill dissidents and prevent counterrevolution. There are nuclear missiles in Sumi, Kharkov, and Donetsk pointed at Russia. Putin’s popularity has plummeted, and the West has had its biggest success since Libya.
Intervention Scenario. Putin uses victory day to outline clearly what is happening in Ukraine and what he will do if these fascists freaks continue to plunder for the West. Then anyone could start the war. If the fascists kill hundreds of peaceful people or if a popular resistance arises that turns Ukraine into Syria, then Russia will have to intervene. God knows what will happen.
I prefer intervention by default, because it’s clear to me that the Ukrainian people have no life in them anymore. The only ones who are fighting are more interested in killing, destruction, and death. It’s like Germany after it was financially raped, all the symbols are skulls are ancient death emblems. I visited Kiev in 2012 and it war the most depressing place I’ve ever been. Many men just standing around like zombies and the women were public drunks and propostioning me for sex. At least, the Russians had the sense to go with Putin after shock therapy in 1999. The Ukrainians, except for a brave bunch in the SE, seem ready for shock therapy 2.0 and rape by NATO. American GI’s would love those drunk Ukrainian women. I think after the smoke clears they should come up with a new name like Краснорусь for the area.
Nice idea Mr. Saker
God Bless Russia and Russian peoples from America
Better or worse for whom??
The first scenario is a nightmare for most Ukrainians, even if many don’t know it yet. The country’s assets will be auctioned off. It will be mostly governed by Germany and the US. The industry in the east will be shut down once commerce with Russia halts. Chernobyl will become a nuclear dumping ground for Europe. Tymoshenko will continue to finance thugs to beat up on ethnic Russians. She will continue to cheer when they are killed.
Maybe a third of the population will have to emigrate, as happened to other countries subjected to the shock doctrine. And once the system is fully occupied by western experts and advisers and military, and properly brutal riot police, there is no way the population can hope to overthrow anything. They would be crushed.
Their only hope is right now.
Maybe it’s already too late. Military equipment seems to be flowing already into the country in great amounts. Mercenaries keep coming. They are surrounding the cities, blocking exits, blocking merchandise. They will exhaust the locals.
This is a tough question, but here’s my 2 cents. If Russia does not intervene (as I believe is most likely), it retains the moral high ground by avoiding military action unless an attack on Russian soil is imminent. The Banderists will be in charge. They will crank up the propaganda, and win many more converts. Ukraine will become a Nazi state, but if it tries to install NATO or nuclear weapons, Russia will bomb them on the spot. Life will be especially hard for Jewish people and Russian speakers left behind. There will be a large diaspora to prosperous Russia, which will share its largess by offering instant citizenship, subsidized housing and other benefits. It’s the least it could do.
If Russia intervenes militarily, for anything less than a complete bloodbath, we will come far too close to WWIII, with results far to dangerous to predict. Of course I prefer the first outcome. Sometimes, you just have to turn the other cheek.
I did ask myself these questions many times.
If Russia doesn’t intervene and the events would go as you described, Ukraine joins EU, and becomes a member of NATO as soon as possible, with all the consequences and dangers for Russia.
But not the eminent war as of yet.
Internal mood will change very little, same hate, same nationalism: “lawful” after the “election”. Tension between East and West will be higher, but there would be no protests, at least not like now. All the protests will be cruelly suppressed before they grow.
Fear will prevail for many years to come.
I Russia does intervene; it could mean WW3 sooner than later. And the main “playing field” will be Ukraine. Neither part of Ukraine is happy about it, this is foe sure.
And Russia doesn’t need the war.
I don’t know if my opinion is right or wrong. But I think Putin must keep his cool, be as smart as he was so far. There is no winning solution for Russia in either situation; Ukraine is not savable any more.
Russia must think for itself, straighten its military, and build up its economy, and be the country everyone wants to live in.
The only winnable solution could be if hunta goes so crazy, that the world finally sees the truth. I cannot quote, I don’t remember the saying, but it is something to the effect:
One can lie to a few forever, one can lie to everybody for a while, but no one can lie to everybody forever. And when the truth comes out, then maybe everyone wins.
I hope, though not too much
N-V
Non intervention by Moscow will make a luaghing stock of Russians and will encourage more western terrorists to poke Russia having tasted how weak in resolve Russ is.
Peception is evrything. You can not talk to such vile enemies like that ugly english scuuuum bag of a woman catherine ashton who needs to be shown her place.
Russia needs to harass Nato not for ukraine but for her security.
Losing PR (even that is doubtful( is less omportant than losing Respect and shown to be a pushover in the International relationship.
In fact this is the easiest time for Russia to come back as A Super power again whom others will flock to once they realize that Russia means business.russia can indirectly help or directly act but it must be decisive and bold enough to hurt anglosaxon race .
NATO troops Arne invited in to stabilise Ukraine for the election – war with Russia
Or
Russia moves in. To stop the depredations on Ukraine’s citizens. – war with Russia
Either way it’s “mission accomplished” for the forces of evil, who of course don’t care about the welfare of Ukraine’s people but seek a war with Russia
These events were set in motion over a year ago because this is the last chance to use the mighty American military against Russia before the East surpasses the West in economic power,
And when the east surpasses the west the huge killing machine- the American Military, the largest military formation the world has ever seen and one which no other Nation comes anywhere close to matching can only decline
After all how long can a nation borrow a billion dollars a day? And that is where the USA is at, as they conduct multiple wars all over the planet some public and other covert
Option 1. Russia Conducts a military operation in Ukraine, the Banderite scum get the whipping they’ve been asking for, many Russians (including myself) rally around the flag and feel a sense of accomplishment. Obama is stupid enough to impose some severe sanctions which will likely be quietly ‘forgotten’ about with time. Lots of huffing and puffing takes place, maybe the Russian banking system is targeted.
Russia stays out and protests are suppressed. Ukraine is enslaved to IMF, which ends up lending it billions of dollars so that the Ukraine can then take that pay and give it to Russia in the form of gas payments (at full price). Meanwhile Russia is free to use its wealth as it pleases instead of supsidizing the Ukrainian economy and builds up internal markets for sectors of the economy which have been sanctions, invests in high tech, etc… Its happy to let the US empire buy itself a problem child…
DT
Events may well overcome predictions as everyone seems to be playing hard ball from the Kiev government setting up the Odessa police and regional governor with a psi op at the Trade Union Hall and blaming them in order to replace Odessa’s functionaries with their cronies (National Guard and RS types) to the general harassment of pro Kiev professionals and spokespersons in the Eastern region. Will the Ukraine become a festering sore like Syria ? A place of low level proxy war between Russia and the US with a motif of ethnic cleansing? Let’s hope someone acts decisively to nip that scenario in the bud. Or better, that the Ukrainian people get hip and refuse to play their part in the Great Game. Certainly the people of Odessa, horrified, showed common humanity in the face of the massacre at the Trade Union Hall.
A sense of reality seems to be creeping slowly in the minds of the global planners:
“NATO’s top military commander in Europe said on Monday he no longer thought regular Russian troops would enter eastern Ukraine, predicting Moscow could achieve its goals through the unconventional forces stirring up trouble there… Shortly before his public remarks, Breedlove discussed Ukraine and Russia in a meeting with Harper, who told reporters beforehand that Russia was mounting a “a slow-motion invasion” of Ukraine. (http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/russia-may-achieve-goals-without-ukraine-invasion-nato-commander-1.2632522)
Political commentators suggest that there is an overarching conflict in society between the reality-based community and the “faith-based community” as a whole.
There was this quotation attributed to Karl Rove
“That’s not the way the world really works anymore (based on realities based on observation, facts),” he continued. “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors… and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do”.
The split of Ukraine is in the order of realities. Its “unity” under Unia is a violation of realities and it will necessarily collapse.
Ummmmm… don’t think the West will regain control over the East. That ship has sailed. Odessa won’t be forgotten by ANYONE. Least of all those poor folks in the East. But, if your first scenario happens, then civil war will continue to unfold in Ukraine. There are lots of failed states spiraling out of control throughout the globe with ZUSA finger-prints all over them. That template is a given.
If Russia intervenes it will be much better for Ukraine, but not good for Russia. Tensions with the west (ZUSA-ZEU-ZATO) will worsen. While that may be inevitable, there are degrees of hurt that each side can force on the other which may be devastating and irreversible. But assuming responsibility for East and South will be a huge drain on Russia. If I were Putin, I would not wish to be entangled and distracted at this time in history. That said — Russia needs to keep the East close, but independent. Frankly, the earlier Russian outline was the best framework — a federation of semi-autonomous regions. There were no clear winners — but everyone got something and Ukrainians got more autonomy from the idiots and oligarchs in Kiev.
A bit off-topic. On C-Span today one of the guests was a guy talking about transportation funding and the sad state of US highway system. A caller (who was black — and identified himself as a democrat voter) went off on this guest-speaker asking “why would the US spend one dime on Ukraine when we didn’t have funds to fix our roads”? Great question! Black voters “get” that sending money (or military equipment) to Ukraine is crazy if we don’t have sufficient funds to fix our roads in the US. It got better. The C-Span guest-speaker totally agreed with the caller that the US shouldn’t be sending money or equipment to Ukraine! Amazing in that the topic was transportation funds. Americans are figuring it out — and the MSM can’t stop us. Made my day.
Best,
AGS
Anglosaxon nations the mian evil plotters are cowrds and they are not going to take casualty so the main aim of Russia should be to kill as many as possible the anglo troops journalist spies and advisors in ukraine and to threaten englad and usa with nuke attck_that will shut up these coward race . Anglos want not world war 3 But war by thousand cuts on one enemy after another without taking loss itself. They know one language only and that is not the language of lavrov
Scenario 1.
Suppose your first scenario takes place. Here is what my un-informed self “sees” happening after that. From June through September, you say. Well, everything starts with a strict nazi martial law in the East & South. Under the guidance of the USA, the Uke nazi jails gradually get filled with all the leaders and active sympathizers of the opposition. Simultaneously, monstrous propaganda war a la “1984” is unleashed upon the entire population (it works ***extremely*** effectively in big USA – so why wouldn’t it work in little Ukraine…). The Russian non-intervention rightly and thoroughly disgusts all the people in the East & South. The demoralized populus is beaten into placid submission. In the meantime, the Uke nazis join NATO, whose ballistic & antiballistic missiles are installed right at the border with Russia, and Putin The Sheep can then shove his entire Crimea you know exactly where…
Scenario 2.
A serious Russian intervention must start with a massive landing of the elite paratroopers in Kiev. Simultaneously, in a combined move, Russian army and air force make a lightning strike taking all the strategic points in Ukraine, sweeping Ukraine clean from the west (!). Ukraine becomes a protectorate of Russia. (Oh … and when is this all supposed to happen?… I would say … way, way before your six months from now mark, but definitely after Putin’s trip to China, certainly not earlier…)
(*I* prefer Scenario 2, hands down. I don’t know about you…)
Scenario #1: (Russia does nothing)
1) IMF “loans” enough money to stabilize the potential (next winter) fuel crisis for both Ukraine and Europe. Strings will be attached, of course. Most people live between poverty and middle class.
2) Ukraine joins NATO, followed by tightening the offensive-weapons noose around Russia by installing missile bases.
3) Crimea stays with Russia.
Scenario #2: (Russia takes military action) (This one is a lot harder!)
1) It appears that Israel/US/England are pushing for a hot war, but they want Russia to strike first. Reason? It is madness, but we’ve seen it before with the Bay of Pigs operation where it was believed that the US could “win” a nuclear exchange, and we’d better do it now, while we still have an “edge.” (I assume Russia is becoming militarily stronger these days…) It appears that I/U/E is goading Russia with insults accompanied by a full-court press in the propaganda theatre. I/U/E may feel that their defensive missiles are good enough to confine most destruction to Russian territory. (What about Russian nuclear subs? How are they alerted? ELF radio, I assume. Could their ELF be taken out on a first strike? There must be a backup system. What is that?) Bottom line, I assume that a Russian attack would very quickly escalate into a major exchange.
2) The US has not fought an equivalently-equipped army since late 1944. They are filled with hubris. Their weapons systems will not be as effective against Russia’s as they think. The war would be vastly more destructive than anticipated.
3) The reason I/U/E wants war is to distract from the impending world-wide monetary crisis as well as eliminate Russia as a contender. A war, as usual, provides cover. If the war does not destroy everything, the dollar will collapse and be replaced by a one-world electronic currency (as in a debit card)
I’m afraid I pick scenario #2. If I/U/E (or really the banks behind them) really want war with Russia, eventually they will get it. The only thing (other than a major natural disaster) that could prevent it would be the prior collapse of the dollar. I think all of this could easily take place prior to October.
John
First, a prediction. Russia will and is helping the Donbass resistance, and they will have their referendums. Then Russia will have a responsibility to protect in those oblasts. They will support the kind of polite activities that discourage a major attack, and they will have significant help from within the Ukrainian military, as many of them will want their new salaries and life in Novorossiya. A lot of this military help is simply to give weapons or plans to the resistance. Looking at websites of the resistance, as well as many Russian news sources, many things have been happening that are unlikely to have been done by mere volunteers with no military knowledge or support.
As for intervening, my guess is that it is better to intervene, but wait till after the referendums. Till then, send in as much help as possible, and bribe as many in the Ukrainian military as possible. The risk of a Syrian scenario or a desperate provocation by the US in Kiev at some point is too great.
The thing we can’t know is the actual diplomacy. It is possible that Putin and Merkel have a deal in mind to split the country, and avoid a major war. Merkel can’t say this, of course, and she can’t influence the Americans too much.
Paul
Let me explain my pessimism that Russia will intervene and there will be war. The West (Washington actually) can under no circumstances be seen to be the loser here. All the rhetoric coming from Washington and the major news outlets is an uncompromising “Russia must stop it’s ‘provocative’ behavior and accept the coup – that is, Russia must surrender. If Washington does not prevail the empire is finished, as it will be clear to the world that it cannot enforce its will.
Likewise Russia cannot accept a such a strategic failed state on its border, from which it will face constant threats, and must act to stabilize the situation.
I believe that this is Washington’s calculus – Russia folds or they fight.
Should Washington wait, Russia and China will strengthen both militarily and economically and it will become impossible to contain them. I believe this to be the showdown at the OK corral – hope to god I am wrong.
Perhaps Russia is hoping that with some limited strategic assistance the east can break away from Kiev and that will be acceptable to the West. I don’t see that it will be acceptable however – I expect they (Kiev and their masters) may be thinking to make an example of Slavyansk and Maruipol and utterly crush the resistance there. The slaughter in Odessa was also likely meant as such a threat.
I think Lavrov may be hoping there are still some sane elements in the EU leadership (and in Washington) and that they will back away from the cliff or that some important EU states (like Germany) will finally stand up to the US. I don’t believe Putin is counting on this though.
If the reported incident of the Russians shutting down the targeting Radar on the Ageis cruiser is true then perhaps Putin was trying to warn the Americans not to try the doomsday option – that it would fail.
Hope I am all wet on this…
The pessimist
West is bankrupt. They don’t have the money for an another war. Who will finance their war China/Russia?
Money/Business is always self preservative.
Best regards,
Mohamed.
US don’t care about Ukraine. Nor does EU.
If Russia stay quiet, in 6 months from now the situation will be worse.
US wants to back off Russia, put it down, and finally destroy it. And will do their play until then.
Maybe the next step is the US put their missiless in the basement of Kremlin.
After then? Well, China is next.
To maintain the world’s peace, US must be stoped. In Ukraine and elsewhere. And it’s time for that. And is now or never.
I don’t know but perhaps the best solution to the debt crisis WOULD BE to tax the wealth of the oligarchs,or at least whatever portion of it is not secreted in some off-shore account ( e.g. in London or N.Y.) Since so much of their wealth IS hidden, whatever IS NOT hidden should probably be taxed 100%. Like in France after W.W. II: 100% tax on all wealth created during the occupation.
Of the two options you present, I think the first (EU and US obtaining their immediate objectives) is better. My odd reason for this preference is that I don’t think the US, collectively, is ready to face defeat and, that being the case, defeating them might provoke irrational, extreme, and violent behavior.
I am not certain though that inaction on Russia’s part would allow the present Kiev government to carry out convincing elections and silence the anti-Kiev forces in eastern Ukraine. The two broadly sketched options are not the only possible outcomes.
Off topic, but this is an excellent article on so-called “right wing nationalist” groups in Russia and Ukraine have been co-opted as useful idiots of the CIA since the end of WWII.
It is also explains why Putin has recently banned “Holocaust Denial”, which has upset a lot of revisionists. This move will allow him to crack down more heavily on CIA, MI6, Mossad ultra nationalist groups, while also making it more difficult for the Western elites to call him a “new Hitler” in the Western mainstream media who “must be stopped”, because we must “never allow WWII to happen again”, etc, etc.
Why Did Putin Ban ‘Holocaust Denial’?
http://tomatobubble.com/ukraine_nationalists.html
I’m sorry for deviating from your scenarios, as I’m certain that Russia will just do what the West did in Libya and Syria, long before they try an invasion.
Destroying all military equipment from the air, that threatens civilians like in Libya, while they send in Russian volunteers, like the west did with their Muslim immigrants in Syria.
What happens to the west Ukrainians, I don’t know, but I have started to hate them, and I don’t think I am alone. Trying to provoke WW3, just to get revenge, is too much for the average westerner.
I used to have great sympathy for them, because of the Holodomor and how they were betrayed by the West after WW2, but when they don’t seem interested in anything but killing Russians, rather than build their country, my guess is that the west will betray them once more.
The only good thing that is certain as of now, is that the neo-nazis in the west will be gone, leaving the space open for some sensible nationalism in Western Europe.
@Saker
http://www.dagbladet.no/2014/03/14/nyheter/innenriks/forsvaret/overvakning/32308236/
Norway is letting Russian subs escape undetected from Murmansk, and that the reason is lack of money, is just stupid. If Norway is doing this on their own, risking the wrath of the USA, it at least shows that Norway is more scared of WW3, than of Russia invading.
Putin’s strategy is to wait, to be like water as Lao Tzu suggests:
“Water is fluid, soft, and yielding. But water will wear away rock, which is rigid and cannot yield. As a rule, whatever is fluid, soft, and yielding will overcome whatever is rigid and hard. … Through this I know the advantage of taking no action.”
The Ukraine, in six months, will deteriorate perhaps into civil war because of the malady it contracted over the past year from the Empire and its satellites. Again to quote Lao Tzu:
“There is no calamity greater than lavish desires. There is no greater guilt than discontentment. And there is no greater disaster than greed.”
Having said that, he realizes that Ukraine will disintegrate in six months, either by civil war
A Russian military invasion beyond a bloodless coup as in Crimea or minor aerial attack would be utter catastrophe. Blood will fill the streets, and the streets will fill with rubble. Look at the pictures of WWII in case anyone has forgotten. I don’t even want to imagine this horror.
The best outcome of any Russian intervention is this. The Ukrainian Army heavily shells and bombs Slavyansk and Kramatorsk causing mass casualties. Putin declares the equivalent of a no-fly zone and proceeds to destroy the Ukrainian Army tanks and artillery from the air, and destroys its air force entirely, allowing Donbass to free itself. In the remainder of the country, anyone with sense will rise against a government that attacks its own civilians with heavy armor, and the Kiev government is tossed out and into prison by its own people, or flees to rump Banderastan which proclaims its own independence. This is the equivalent of the 6-Day War – short and quick. Fear of this scenario is why the Ukrainian Army is just blockading.
If Russia does not intervene, a low grade war establishs de facto Donbass independence. This won’t take long, as rebellion is either going to be crushed or win shortly – the status quo is unsustainable, and I don’t see the Ukrainian Army willing to win because the scenario above where Russia detroys them in the open. What I think happens is some fool rolls tanks into the city and shoots. They will come in and be trapped and finished off with RPG’s, anti-tank missiles, and molotovs. This will have the same effect as MANPADS to down two helicopters did a few days ago did the Army will pull back just like there haven’t been many helicopter flights since then. The radicals in government in Kiev will fly into a rage at the Army and demand it flatten a city inviting their own removal by the Generals who remind them at gunpoint while leading them into the hands of the police that the Army defends Ukraine from foreign enemies, not fight its own people. By this time Donbass is already lost.
The alternative to this is that the Army just continues to encamp like it is, in which case the referendum is going to occur on May 11 across Donetsk and Lughansk in enough places and produce a high enough margin to make independence on the ground. I predict a vote of around 60-75% of all qualified voters for independence. The “International Community” and Yats and Turd will freak out, but it will be sound and fury signifying nothing. Donbass is big enough to be a state of its own and does not require Russian annexation, given 6.6M people and $27.6B GDP.
All scenarios end up with Donbass broken from Ukraine. The real question is the reaction of the rest of Ukrainian to this and to their government of murderers. I don’t see armed rebellion spreading. If people aren’t fighting now, they won’t later. I do think Odessa, Kharkov and Zapoizhia Oblasts may pull some sort of referendum off in the chaos, and this results in a statelet around Odessa, Budjak, and Transnistria and Kharkov and Zaporizhia joining Donbass. Neither region will want to remain in Banderastan by itself, because they would be effectively isolated due to their politics. If Moldova can be a successulf state, so can Odessa/Budjak. It might be possible that negotiating an end to the Transnistria problem results in Gauguzia leaving Moldova and joining Budjak in return for the Romanian parts of Transnistria and Budjak rejoining Moldova. I see a high Russian interest in influencing the inhabitatns to this to finish crippling Ukraine, since it would lose its main port and remaining heavy industry in Kharkov. This is the most extreme realistic scenario.
People dreaming of seeing Banderastan rolled back more are deluding themselves, and don’t understand that Kiev is nearly as radicalized as Galicia. What goes on between the Dnieper and Bug will have to play itself out on its own.
I believe Russia will not intervene and that if the resistance fails to cohere a popular political program, the neofascists will win. But only select oligarchs will be scapegoated and only “moderate” Svoboda figures will officially rule. EU austerity will be directed largely against the south and east. Neofascists violence will be covered up using the model of Yeltsin’s assault on the Russian White House and its consequent repressions, as in Odessa. Other repressions will be modeled more on the Salvador Option pioneered by James Steele.
NATO will be across the Dniepr. Georgia membership in Ukraine will be fast forwarded. Destabilization of Azerbaijan will begin. Chechen rebels will be resupplied. Jihadis will be sent into other Caucasian regions.
Pressures against Sevastopol and Crimea, ranging from naval “incidents” and bombings and water cutoffs and boycotts will continually mount. US dfforts to create prop up democratic opposition to Putin will be increased. Oligarch opposition to Putin will seek US alliance. Putin’s defeat will rankle many nationalists. Putin will compensate by pressuring, attacking the Communists some of whom will be inflamed by the neofascist victory.
Neofascists foreign fighters will return from Ukraine with their training and up the violence in their home countries. Right wing parties across Europe will post even larger gains. Intervention against Syria and Iran will go up yet again, military in Syria by the Turks and Israelis. Lukashenko of Belarus will detach from Putin who will have demonstrated his weakness.
The Eurasian customs union will die. (Possibly the main goal all along.)
To the superficial observers it will seem pretty much like business as usual.
Steven Johnson
What are the two options:
1. WW3 (or WW4) as per Dear Saker.
2. Russia to wait out and bite its time and Ukrainians will suffer/killed.
Which is worst of the two evils?
Best regards,
Mohamed.
Either way – East Ukraine, Russia and the world wins. This is the first chance for progress since the mid-70s. In some ways, it might be better for the East to fight its own revolutionary war. In fact, international volunteers can and will defeat fascism. Further, the resulting post-revolutionary social structure may be post-oligarchic/neoliberal capitalist in nature.
Russia will help whether it intervenes formally or not. Russia can save lives but might paradoxically weaken the East’s development by doing so. But either way, the time is now, it’s happening. The better question is what can we do as individuals committed to anti-fascist resistance.
Thank you for the opportunity to comment on this forum.
In solidarity with Donetsk, Lugansk, Odessa, Kharkiv
Saker, have you seen this?
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2014/05/05/Russian-Strategic-Bombers-Flying-Along-California-Coast
I believe Russia will not intervene and that if the resistance fails to cohere a popular political program, the neofascists will win. But only select oligarchs will be scapegoated and only “moderate” Svoboda figures will officially rule. EU austerity will be directed largely against the south and east. Neofascists violence will be covered up using the model of Yeltsin’s assault on the Russian White House and its consequent repressions, as in Odessa. Other repressions will be modeled more on the Salvador Option pioneered by James Steele.
NATO will be across the Dniepr. Georgia membership in Ukraine will be fast forwarded. Destabilization of Azerbaijan will begin. Chechen rebels will be resupplied. Jihadis will be sent into other Caucasian regions.
Pressures against Sevastopol and Crimea, ranging from naval “incidents” and bombings and water cutoffs and boycotts will continually mount. US dfforts to create prop up democratic opposition to Putin will be increased. Oligarch opposition to Putin will seek US alliance. Putin’s defeat will rankle many nationalists. Putin will compensate by pressuring, attacking the Communists some of whom will be inflamed by the neofascist victory.
Neofascists foreign fighters will return from Ukraine with their training and up the violence in their home countries. Right wing parties across Europe will post even larger gains. Intervention against Syria and Iran will go up yet again, military in Syria by the Turks and Israelis. Lukashenko of Belarus will detach from Putin who will have demonstrated his weakness.
The Eurasian customs union will die. (Possibly the main goal all along.)
To the superficial observers it will seem pretty much like business as usual.
Steven Johnson
PS Having trouble with the sign in (keep forgetting passwords) so there’s a chance this is a double post. If so, sorry.
Major food for thought here, Saker, both in your provocative question and in all the many responses.
Mostly, I am just glad you are feeling better — and may tomorrow be a better day for all!
Saker.
A simple answer to your simple question,
If I were advising Putin, I would recommend playing the long game. Time is on the side of the Russians.
No intervention unless the Nazi’s start killing thousands of women, children, etc., Then they can invoke the R2P
Meezer
I think the question is based on a counterfactual hypothesis. I don’t see how the resistance can hold out anywhere in the east or south, indefinitely. This is like the Spanish Civil War, in my opinion. Whatever obscure aid Putin, like Stalin, grants to the rebels, it will not be enough for them to win. He wants to keep his powder dry for the big, global conflict, (WW3), which he anticipates in 2020 or so. Just like Stalin, again.
If Russia does not intervene, the United States and their allies, will have won yet another bloody coup,installed a fascist regime in Ukraine and there will be civil war for years to come and more bitterness, hostility and polarization of countries in this world. Ukraine will look like Syria, Afghanistan, Egypt, Iraq and all the other countries the western aggressors have destroyed. There will be continuing class war and the poor will only become more poor, while the rich wallow in their greed. They will have succeeded in yet another of their conquests because war and weapons are the only thing that helps their economy. Maybe a catastrophic event like Yellowstone erupting will put an end to this madness
If Russia played by US “rules” it would replay Libya and establish a no-fly zone and bomb the living shit out of any Ukrainian military unit that moved.
Greetings from Singapore:
Ukraine army does a coup and ensures referenda are done.
Ukraine becomes a federation with a democratic elected government.
Eventually the federation splits in two different Ukraines.
I am not very confident on this scenario, but it would be the one with less casualties and not requiring any Russian invasion.
I’ll answer your question with a story…
A Chinese proprietor of a restaurant in a small, all white town in the 1950’s is forced to endure the racist comments of a regular customer who visits for lunch every Friday afternoon. Let’s call this customer Ukunchuk.
Once a week Ukunchuck enters the restaurant and stops near the entrance. Making sure everyone notices him he takes a long look at a water colour painting on the wall before marching to the main counter to order a plate of chicken fried rice. Ukunchuck is always obnoxious and mercilessly taunts the restaurant’s Chinese owner and his son as he clears off his plate.
After many months of abuse the son finally asks the father why he doesn’t ask Ukunchuk to leave. The father tells his son not to let Ukunchuck bother him and explains that throwing him out might cause problems with his all white clientele, not good for the lone Chinese family in a small town. The son accepts his father’s explanation with obvious disappointment.
Several more months pass as Ukunchuk’s visits and abuse continue. Unusually early one Friday morning the Chinese owner wakes his son and they head off to the restaurant. When they get there the owner takes down the water colour painting and grabs the chair where Ukunchuck normally sits, bringing them to the back. There he carefully saws off 1/4 inch from the legs of the chair and with a paint brush he adds details to the water colour painting that greets visitors to his restaurant. The painting is of a naked girl next to a river in the summer. On the first week he adds a bathing suit bottom.
When Ukunchuck enters the store later that day he makes his usual grand entrance and turns to look at the painting. He notices the new addition to the formerly naked girl and makes a funny face before moving to his usual seat at the front counter. Week after week this pattern continues as the chair gets shorter and the picture slowly morphs into something much less inviting. The scene slowly changes from summer to winter and the Chinese restauranteur also makes sure to add an extra spoonful of fried rice to Ukunchuck’s plate every week, which he always finishes but only with growing unease.
Finally after several more months pass Ukunchuck comes in one Friday and sits down for his usual meal. He looks uncomfortable and distressed with the counter top now reaching halfway up his chest. Unable to finish his plate of fried rice Ukunchuk stands up suddenly and storms out of the restaurant never to return.
To put this in the context of events in Ukraine, Putin is slowly making his opponents more and unconfortable. Months will pass and the expense of NATO’s deployment to eastern Europe will grow as the nature of the putchist regime becomes ever more difficult to hide from an increasingly skeptical Western public. NATO and the regime in Kiev will continue to grow more uncomfortable but will be unable to force Putin’s hand. The West will slowly lose credibility as Putin undermines US economic power by working to wreck the petro dollar.
Digital armchair warriors like ourselves will have to get used to the idea that a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO is extremely unlikely. Slowly but surely Putin will win the hearts and minds of Europe and the whole world as the western alliance is weakened and co-operative governments in the EU are forced from power. With due consideration for anti fascist Ukrainians they will not be abandoned but neither should they expect Russia to coming riding to their rescue. This will take time.
Kenny Rogers – The Gambler Lyrics
You’ve got to know when to hold ’em
Know when to fold ’em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you’re sittin’ at the table
There’ll be time enough for countin’
When the dealin’s done
Every gambler knows
That the secret to survivin’
Is knowin’ what to throw away
And knowin’ what to keep
‘Cause every hand’s a winner
And every hand’s a loser
And the best that you can hope for is to die
in your sleep
Best regards,
Mohamed.
If the aid Russia provides is not enough fire the eastern provinces to hold their own, they aren’t trying hard enough. Think Vietnam war, think of the northern regions of Burma.
There are plenty of polite green men and Cossacks volunteers to train people for FIBUA.
Anything more serious will get the attention of Iskanders and SU 24s. As time goes, the eastern rebels will get stronger and better.
There will be fatalities, formal Russian intervention will not prevent them. They are an inevitable tragedy.
So as things stand, it will only get “better” with time, just like every day we grow closer to the end of dollar hegemony.
Russia’s strategic aim is to separate Germany from the grasp of the Anglo-America-Zionist-Empire.
Let Nato expend its military and monetary assets into the zombie land of the Ukraine. There is not enough human energy in the Ukraine for a sustained civil war. It will be controlled chaos discrediting NATO as time reveals all.
It would be best for Ukrainian’s short term if Russia moved fast, but long term zombie land can greatly benefit as a participant on the Silk Road from Berlin to Shanghai.
I suggest without intervention the
situation will become more chaotic.
I am well aware that the west are
provoking Russia and will take as many lives as needed to do it…
A strategic intervention as you Saker, have suggested previously is the likely move.
Timing will have to be spot on….
1. In the first instance the intimidation and murders will be maintained as the “government”
goes about it’s raping of the country.
2. With intervention if carried off successfully the darkside will
receive a hard lesson.
They will continue their “yapping” of course but appreciate there are limits. I suggest their will then be negotiations ongoing as some sort of normality returns…
I prefer ‘selected’ intervention
as a way of defusing the conflict.
Despite the bluster I cant see the west attacking Russia, they will cop a hiding if they do…
Cheers.
I suggest without intervention the
situation will become more chaotic.
I am well aware that the west are
provoking Russia and will take as many lives as needed to do it…
A strategic intervention as you Saker, have suggested previously is the likely move.
Timing will have to be spot on….
1. In the first instance the intimidation and murders will be maintained as the “government”
goes about it’s raping of the country.
2. With intervention if carried off successfully the darkside will
receive a hard lesson.
They will continue their “yapping” of course but appreciate there are limits. I suggest their will then be negotiations ongoing as some sort of normality returns…
I prefer ‘selected’ intervention
as a way of defusing the conflict.
Despite the bluster I cant see the west attacking Russia, they will cop a hiding if they do…
Cheers.
Putin is being more honest and convincing in his public statements than the Atlanticists.
People in the West are sick of propaganda from the MSM, and they are hungry for some insight into what is really being imposed on them by their political overlords.
Putin should take advantage of this situation.
Putin anf Lavrov should go on tv regularly and be interviewed, and give speeches at universities in the west and at the UN, and generally put out their version of events, in order to counter US propaganda. there are a lot of people eager to listen.
They could do it, and it would be highly effective. The MSM would be forced to cover it, and even if they covered Putin just to vilify him, they woud still draw the public’s attention to Putin and his message.
Great call Mohamed….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jj4nJ1YEAp4
I would go with this, which is similar to what most comments are suggesting.
Do not be too hard, lest you be broken; do not be too soft, lest you be squeezed.
Ali ibn Abi Talib (A.S.)
Mindfriedo
It’s a complicated question because there are different types of Russian intervention.
Possible interventions include:
1) arming the separatists with more advanced weapons,
2) mercenaries,
3) airstrikes against Kiev military forces in the East,
4) airstrikes against Kiev military forces in the East and West,
5) taking out the current unelected leadership with airstrikes or covert operations,
6) if the referendum(s) goes through and the separatists win, send in peacekeeping military forces in those areas at the invitation of the new Eastern leaders, which would result in those areas either continuing to be pro-Russian or part of Russia,
7) all out invasion and takeover of Ukraine.
And we don’t even know if the referendums will take place.
My best guess is Russia should do at least options 1, 2, and 6, and possibly 3 and 5 as well. They’re going to be demonized and sanctions maintained regardless. The West seems intent on breaking up Russia.
If Russia does nothing before the May 25th election, the new government will be able to claim legitimacy, get more military aid from the West, and the threat to Russia will increase slowly. Then we’ll have another crisis down the road. If they act we will get more short term turmoil, but the long term threat to Russia will be reduced (although not eliminated). Russia has made clear they will use nuclear weapons if thier existence is threatened.