by Jorge Vilches for the Saker Blog
Robert Habeck, Vice-Chancellor of Germany and Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, jointly with Annalena Baerbock — Germany´s Anglophile Minister of Foreign Affairs — have patronized the world from the German Green Party´s self-proclaimed moral high ground thru their ´we truly care´ and ´superior knowledge´ mantras.
Now, both German officials — quite active in the European War Party led by also German Ursula von der Leyen – are behind NATO´s announced increase of military presence in Europe with US headquarters and troops in Poland… plus a 10-fold enlarged rapid-response force up to 300,000 with yet additional troops in Romania and the Baltic states… plus yet more destroyers and F-35s in Europe´s waters and skies… and now considering itself the “unique, essential and indispensable”(sic) bloc while sweeping under the rug the deep existential crisis it has dug Europeans into with no way out for energy and commodities sourcing security. Ref #1 https://www.rt.com/news/558088-biden-troop-deployments-nato-europe/
And precisely to address the current self-inflicted energy debacle, German Minister Habeck is compounding this ugly all-inclusive European conundrum in at least 14 different ways and has (1) shut down Germany´s nuclear power plants including the domino impact upon the inter-connected European electrical grid without any foresight or consideration whatsoever (2) banned excellent, cheap Russian hydrocarbons and distilled petroleum products thereof to which Europe´s entire economy and energy infrastructure is uniquely matched and tuned for, including the superb, proven, mostly un-replaceable Russian Urals crude oil blend and the most convenient Russian Druzbha door-to-door pipeline rendering 24x7x365 already vetted exceptional performance (3) shut down and indefinetly cancelled the most-needed NS2 pipeline for delivery of Russian hydrocarbons, with possible partial expropiatory theft yet again beyond bank deposits and other assets (4) fully ignored the very loud Siemens compliance warning regarding the EU ban on return-delivery of NS1 equipment back to Russia under well-known, scheduled and mandatory Canadian maintenance requirements (5) re-introduced the dirtiest of coals, namely brown coal, as feedstock for German and EU coal-fired power plants (6) rationed hot water and fuel consumption including the amount of time that Herr Habeck himself spends in the shower (7) shamefully placed Russia´s Gazprom Germania in a ´trusteeship´ of sorts which will also prove to be a very expensive mistake (8) promoted a fully counter-productive wind-mill expansion program requiring fossil-fueled equipment for the extraction and transportation of thousands of tons of nickel and rare earths that Europe does not have, plus subsequent movement, erection and maintenance of such wind mills with other fossil fueled equipment that Europe has to import, plus additional fossil fuel power-generating equipment always needed as backstop during low wind seasons such as the last several months, plus tons of fossil-fuel powered equipment to eventually de-commission such wind-mills (9) fast-tracked the LNG Acceleration Act to favor in every possible way the construction of fully unnecessary and super-costly Liquefied Natural Gas terminals in detriment of many other much needed infrastructures so as to many months from now eventually buy über-expensive LNG from the USA which is really the Master Pupeteer behind this anti-Europe Master Plan (10) with direct benefit to Russia, the current lower volume of its oil exports at much higher prices thanks to EU sanctions allows the Ruble to become ever stronger while saving Russian oil for sale to others (11) pushed for a naïve buyer´s oil price cap cartel in a seller’s market (!!!) (12) seized Russian LNG tankers (13) crashed German nat-gas giant Uniper now ready for bail-out and Lehman moment (14) launched Germany and the EU in the most nonsensical “firehose” oil & gas policies already explained to death and with excruciating details Ref # 2 https://10.16.86.131/herr-habeck-firehoses-oil-gas/ Ref #3 https://www.rt.com/business/558116-germany-seizes-russian-lng-tankers/ Ref # 4 https://www.rt.com/news/558073-nato-adopts-new-strategic-concept-russia/ Ref #5 https://www.rt.com/business/558126-skepticism-russian-oil-price-cap/ Ref #6 https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/uniper-crashes-russian-natgas-supply-crunch-bailout-talks-germany
So, Herr Habeck and Fräulein Baerbock, on behalf of the few future European survivors, please enjoy a loud and clear “bravo, bravissimo, bravo” from your colleague Mario Draghi – Italy´s NATO Prime Minister courtesy of Goldman Sachs – for such creative and successful ´green solutions´ that will have both of you go down in history forever.
Unbeknownst to EU politicians and to these two ignorant dilettantes, Europe´s diesel is now strictly in Russian hands.
I have said it before and I´ll say it yet again: no imagination can ever be creative enough to make this stuff up. No way.
Could it be a deliberate insider attack of the West on the West? Will Joe Six-Pack figure all this out soon enough?
Ref #8 https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-economy-minister-on-the-gas-shortage-there-is-a-black-hat-and-putin-is-wearing-it-a-e387bacf-70ce-447f-b7dc-3b48d0ac4178 Ref #9 https://www.rt.com/business/557554-europe-coal-energy-crisis/
Russia rules diesel
European transportation of anything and everything — from people to peanuts to 500,000 metric tons ULCC oil tankers — is 99% diesel-powered. Whomever in Europe wishes or needs to move whatever with whichever vehicle or craft from point A to point B anywhere — either very close or very far away — will need diesel-powered engines somewhere along the line, and sometimes all along the long line. This is a fact, not an opinion. No diesel, no Europe. By the same token – and if so far you´ve only been browsing from now on please focus sharply on every word — less diesel, less Europe… and not enough diesel, no longer Europe as we know it. Furthermore, less diesel necessarily means even far less diesel yet as explained below. But first, let´s recall where diesel comes from.
Diesel comes from distilled crude oil which, as of December 2022 will no longer be from Russia but per the EU sanctions package No.6 from somewhere else yet an unfathomable mystery. Now then, so far nothing to write home about as we all know such circumstances very well and mostly pray and hope for the best right?. Unfortunately, it´s much much worse than that. Why so? Please keep reading, we´ll get there soon enough, in the next couple of paragraphs at the most. Because when we all generically talk about “diesel”, we automatically and exclusively think
of diesel fuel, the beautifully colored liquid we fill up our fuel tanks with. But actually, the problem is three-fold as we have, yes indeed, (1) diesel fuel of course… but also (2) diesel exhaust fluid or DEF + (3) diesel engine lube oil…
and all three are required by diesel engines. And to compound the problem further, the vessels absolutely required for seaborne delivery of non-Russian diesel-refinable crude oil from December 2022 also run on diesel-powered engines. So that´s why above you read “less diesel necessarily means even far less diesel yet ” clear enough?
By the way, other Russian commodities besides their superb Urals blend for diesel distillation are also involved.
(1) diesel fuel
Diesel fuel is required and consumed all along the transportation vectors, from container ships with goods from wherever and the trucks that pick up such goods from European ports and bring them to warehouses and then to homes etc., etc., etc. Same thing for farms that grow food produce and have tractors and vehicles to move stuff around. Trucks, cars, ships, industrial machinery, buses, factories, homes, etc., etc., etc., all require diesel fuel.
(2) diesel exhaust fluid (DEF)
DEF is a solution of urea + de-ionized water required by diesel engines in order to reduce harmful gases released during combustion by catalytic conversion of the nitrogen oxide into nitrogen and steam. In most cases diesel engines will not even start without urea-derived DEF — manufactured as a derivative of natural gas – and normally produced partly in Europe but mostly in Russia and China, the world´s two largest exporters. Europe is now having very serious natural gas supply problems, so no urea — and thus no DEF — will come from Europe. And both China and Russia have stopped exporting urea in order to produce fertilizers for themselves. So without urea anywhere around either of European origin or imported from wherever then no DEF for Europe which means no diesel engines for Europe okay?
(3) diesel engine lube oil
Because of the Ukraine war and previous Covid supply chain problems, key manufacturers of certain additives have curtailed operations, and thus diesel engine lube oil has suffered serious shortage problems worldwide. With foresight, some countries have stockpiled such raw materials for additive manufacturing or improvised new ones. This includes Russia, India, China, and others in Southeast Asia. The additives involved are antioxidants, anti-corrosion agents, dispersing additives, antirust mechanisms, friction modifiers, EP additives, antifoaming agents, antioxidants, and others. Without these additives, traditional manufacturers cannot produce the final oil products for the internal lubrication of diesel engines. Please do remember that all three “diesels” explained above are required by any diesel engine.
Ref #12 https://www.motorbiscuit.com/what-could-a-def-shortage-mean-for-diesel/
So then, let´s summarize the European crude oil-dependency factors that impact availability of diesel products
(A) Crude oil shortage
- Source yet unknown, below please see “what NOT to do” as non-sensical and foolish as it might sound.
Also please see Ref #15 https://10.16.86.131/no-fuels-for-europe/
(B) Crude oil seaborne delivery is either poor or has failed
- Diesel fueling problems for tankers, so less crude oil delivery means less diesel refined (vicious circle)
- Suez limitations + Cape Horn problems + piracy + very long trips from far away with serious issues
- Much higher freight costs + much longer distances complicate logistics compliance of batch deliveries.
- Tanker problems & port labor union issues re schedule non-compliance both out-bound and in-bound
- Tanker size limitations in a very tight batch-delivery quantum-discontinuous system
- Tanker availability as 50% of the existing fleet is still fully dedicated to the delivery of Russian oil exports
Please see Ref #16 https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/sovcomflot-has-worked-around-sanctions-to-keep-sailing
(C) Crude oil serious port limitations & compromised loading & unloading capabilities
- Port limitations + reforms per the Rostock example at Ref # 17 https://10.16.86.131/dear-ursula-you-are-dead-wrong/
(D) Crude oil serious land logistics very limited capabilities
• The Schwedt pipeline example per Ref # 18 https://10.16.86.131/germans-schwedt-hard-for-russian-oil/
(E) None (zero) refinery modifications planned for, coordinated, or made for new crude oil- refinement capabilities
* Please see Ref # 19 https://10.16.86.131/for-europe-from-russia-with-love/
- European DEF shortage per the description above
- European diesel engine lube oil shortage per the description above
- European diesel fuel shortage affecting the distribution of diesel fuel per the description above
the sequence
The process starts by defining the desired output, in this case with the focus on much-needed diesel fuel for all-around transportation and industrial machinery up and downstream of every sort which ends up governing everything else.
The process does NOT start by deciding to buy some whatever good or bad or intermediate quality oil at a “fair” price somewhere else wherever with whatever freight & delivery terms from whichever somebody you don´t even know yet. No, it doesn´t work that way. If skeptical, please ask other sources, and then understand, accept, and act accordingly.
Benjamin Franklin once said: “ Experience is an expensive school but fools will learn in no other”. That is humbly true.
what NOT to do
Reuters – “ France wants to replace Russian oil with oil from Venezuela and Iran ”. Really, do they? First of all, there is the very live and sensitive political memory both in Iran and Venezuela of years-long damaging sanctions and always constant Western aggressions, be it with Soleimani´s brutal in-your-face acknowledged assassination or Guaydo´s now supposed ownership of the Venezuelan gold vaulted in the Bank of England. But beyond the enormous geopolitical obstacles involved now even with Iran officially requesting admission into BRICS, the ignorant fools in charge should be whispered to in their ears that they will NEVER EVER distill the quality and amount of diesel that Europe requires from readily available either Venezuelan or Iranian oils. The reason is that both are heavy (or very heavy) and also ´sour´ meaning with relatively high sulfur content and are thusly very complicated to process into diesel, let alone by European refineries which simply can´t do it no matter what or how hard they try. Very exceptionally some very rare Iranian and Venezuelan blends could possibly be found to be somewhat better adapted to European needs. But the price of such would be ultra-high while constantly available volumes are ultra-low for European requirements or simply non-existent. In sum, not good, forget about those, please do not blow up the refineries (I kid you not) just stick to “the science” as Herr Habeck would have it, and for Heaven´s sake please do hurry up and stop proposing foolish ideas which you should know much better about.
Ref # 20 https://www.rt.com/business/557918-france-replacement-russian-oil/
Ref # 21 https://10.16.86.131/europes-mad-ban-on-russian-oil/
Ref # 22 https://10.16.86.131/why-russias-oil-ban-is-impossible/
Ref # 23 https://10.16.86.131/europe-now-cheats-or-suffers/
Ref # 24 https://10.16.86.131/pitchforks-soon-in-europe/
Now please repeat out loud after me, word by word… refineries-are-pretty-much-built-and-later-matched-and-finely-tuned-for-the-feedstock-they-will-use-for-the-rest-of-their-useful-service-lives… and can only be tweaked so far to be able to use even a slightly different feedstock, let alone completely different crudes such as traditional Venezuelan or Iranian oils. That is the reason why crude oil procurement contracts are so difficult to agree upon with a humongous amount of lab data, tests all-around, back & forth, and highly intense negotiations (meaning lots of TIME) which also necessarily require the guarantee of decades-long constant-quality supply. Crude oil blends are always at least slightly different (possibly a lot) but are definitely never fungible, not interchangeable in any way, shape or form. European refineries were built, matched, and mated to the Russian Urals blend to which everybody has become used to in more than one way. Iranian and Venezuelan oils are perfectly good for refining very important petrochemical distillates but are mostly very different from those which Europe now needs. Instead, Europe needs massive amounts of high-quality diesel and they better have lots of it soon enough, or else… What part of this is so hard to understand?
So please stop the wishful-thinking dead in its tracks, right now. Please. Many hundreds of millions of people depend upon a correct judgment nowhere to be seen today. Time is of the essence and in more than one-way time is already up. Once that diesel is defined as the preferential output, then – and only then – you look for the right type of crude oil to be refined ( … not from Iran or Venezuela…) but always delivered in the agreed quality and quantities, means, and terms, including guarantees provided by the right type of reliable vendor. There is a whole LOT to unpack in that last sentence so do not breeze by it lightly. Rather stop and focus on the many key difficult features yet to be found for the Urals substitute which will not happen. It may though possibly be that several different blends are found from different vendors, not a single well-known reliable supplier as Russia, which would complicate the matter tremendously as it would not be a “universal” substitute, but rather many. And finally – and never ever before – all the European refineries would be modified according to a (1) “coordinated plan” which now does not exist and (2) per the specific crude oil to be refined which now does not exist and (3) with the due process for each and only one by one (which does not exist) one at a time, not all simultaneously throughout Europe as these fools have decided without even knowing yet the source crude oil(s) to be refined (!!!!). Do you now understand why I say that it´s impossible to make this stuff up?
the chicken and the egg
Despite being a clear priority, so far Europeans are acting as if they did not need diesel production as the main desired output of their refineries. Furthermore, the diesel portion extracted from any new non-Russian crude oil – if ever found in the right terms with the delivery of large and continuous quantities and quality – would never be identical to what the Urals blend renders today, no way. At any rate, if the already approved game plan is to change such Russian Urals blend, the modifications to all European refineries would have to be made necessarily after the new crude oil feedstock is precisely known and made available, not a second before. And after decades of constant only-Urals processing, the switchover to whatever is finally found – yet unknown, if ever – is unfathomable. The only way to do it is to close down the distillation process throughout Europe for months. And precisely who, how, and by when will keep on supplying the European market with the quantity and quality required by the all-important diesel and other distillate fuels and petrochemicals, huh? We need an answer for that right now, before messing things up forever, okay?
not a drill
I am listening but can´t hear a single sound, anyone and all please do respond. This is for real, not a drill. If you don´t have the answer to the above question, come December 2022 — unless EU politicians backtrack with a humiliating 180 rewind, something which is definitely in the cards — supposedly the seaborne Russian Urals blend will be fully banned from Europe, meaning that a different non-Russian blend would be its substitute. But until a definition of such is made, nothing can be done, no plans, no bids, no contracts, no modifications, no calibration, no fine-tuning, no certification, no permitting, no commissioning, nothing. And whenever it is finally known, the switch-over sequence will be the hardest trick on planet Earth. The only known procedure is to very gradually stop the inflow of Urals (which takes time) and slowly “purge” the system, then shut down the refineries (not easy to do and yet more time) but always having ready at hand the continuous feed of the new (but yet-unknown) batch-delivered crude oil substitute right there and then – and only then — start with operational trials after lots of lab tests and back & forth until finally the bosses – not technical folks, but the political bosses — feel ´comfortable´ ( I did not say ´sure´) to re-start operations with the traditional comings and goings and – quite frankly – just see what the hell happens until the refinery achieves cruising speed, if ever, and then lock on the operating parameters. A very messy and risky experiment done simultaneously throughout all of Europe´s refineries … and winter is coming… And please do not blow up several European refineries in the process, I beg you because that would perpetuate the problem pretty much forever. Only harebrained fools can plan for this, but the price will still be paid by all Europeans, not only by two German Greens.
Slightly off-topic ( still very much EU energy-related ) per the Financial Times the UK has warned that, if push ever got to shove, it would shut down its nat-gas supply pipeline to Europe. Yes, it will. Meanwhile, a fully unsubstantiated report from Fitch without any details whatsoever, concludes that “it could take the EU more than three years to offset a full loss of Russian gas supply”. No kidding Fitch. How about never ever as it´d had to be mainly through non-existent LNG terminals and non-existent supplies plus hundreds of un-existent pipelines and lots of additional land-logistical infrastructure. And just from where exactly would Europe find the nat-gas required to survive during such “three years or more“? Are only harebrained ´experts´ available or shall we ever get any no-nonsense reporting from the West?
Ref # 25 https://www.rt.com/business/558053-europe-gas-threat-uk/
Ref # 26 https://www.rt.com/business/558048-eu-russia-gas-replacement/
Ref # 27 https://www.rt.com/business/557967-eu-gas-crisis-domino-effect/
Off-topic, of course. It is not necessary to publish. Thanks.
To The Saker,
Operations in Ukraine are at a delicate moment, what we see is just the tip of the iceberg.
Consulting Russian channels on Telegram is indispensable, not only as a source of information and opinion but also to gauge the reaction of the most engaged portion of Russian society.
Russia’s Communication deficiencies are well known. Russian soft-power is impotent.
As I have posted here before, I have followed this site for many, many years.
It was with sadness that I saw here a huge expectation with Trump, soon dissipating into frustration early in his term.
However, this was absolutely predictable.
Please do not make the same mistake now.
《The withdrawal from under Kiev, Chernigov, and Sumy was also explained by goodwill, de-escalation. And it was not just a statement to cover military necessity.
An Istanbul-1 was concluded, among whose clauses: the Russian Federation undertook to attack only in certain areas, not to kill encircled AFU soldiers and the National Guard, withdrawal of troops from Belarus, security guarantees for visits of Western leaders to Kiev and no barriers to Western military aid.
The withdrawal of Azov plus the lifting of the naval blockade is not a military necessity under the guise of a goodwill gesture, it is precisely a political process under the guise of military necessity. Istanbul 2.
Oh, according to the Defense Ministry, they also lifted the naval blockade of Ukraine at the same time. Grain, neon and lots of other goodies will go to the West, and money to Ukraine.
“For the UN, as a goodwill gesture.”
Lumpy went. They don’t conclude Istanbul 2 all at once, they prepare the ground.
Understand one truth: private deals with Western partners and international organizations are far more important to Russian elites than some serf Russians like you and me.》
https://t.me/bulbe_de_trones/1117
https://t.me/bulbe_de_trones/1118
Nice try at disinformation
Thanks for the heads-up, I know there’s been nowhere to post this these past days. So this is just the lull before the calm? Another charade paraded by the int’l elites? Is this why getting their guys killed is no big deal? Getting their boat sunk no big deal? Losing half their sovereign wealth no big deal? Art, sport, culture zeroed out no big deal? 1200 miles new border with NATO no big deal?Continued Donbas shelling not a problem? Medvedev an amusing figurehead (Misha, 1980)? Eleven time zones of hot air. We got these weapons, you just wait.
? Well, ok, everyone has an opinion. Yours is clouded in an extremely poor delivery of whatever it is you are trying to say ? Evidently you just wanted to harp on the last sentence. Are you trying to say that Russian ‘elites’, which are what ? the oligarchs from the 90’s yet to be neutralized sufficiently, are traitors to the nation. If so, perhaps that is the baggage being drug along with the partial commitment to Capitalism as a driver of the economy, and if that is happening it is not the deciding factor, bad boys getting rich at the expense of the public good will be dealt with at some point of necessity.
I wonder why he chose this time to humiliate himself in public.
“no barriers to Western military aid” ?? All right so UK nukes and long range missiles expected in Ukraine. Good.
….”no barriers to Western military aid.”
Yes. In order to completely destroy it upon arrival.
Slowly the penny of understanding is dropping for me. It is almost non-intuitive for someone that does not know this industry. You build refineries and industry and the complete delivery to the end user on the basis of the available feedstocks, and not the other way around. It’s not that you build the major infrastructure A to Z and then go and look for the feedstocks. So, the infrastructure is a custom solution built for the inputs available.
And now, with the announcement (and I believe they will fail), of an increase of military men and machines to Europe, one has to ask: So, what are you going to put in that tank to make it go? What even about specialized aviation fuels? With Jorge’s explanations, I’m finding more and more things to laugh about!
My father-in-law (rip) was a chemical engineer and high muckety muck in this industry, specializing in by-products such as plastics and things like aluminum. The mind boggles – the impact and complete life cycle of this stupidity has no end.
The Western Elites are so dumb and dense, the sheer stupidity is mindboggling. I think Russia, China, India knew this all along, how the West would react, how they would turn to selfharm, how they would try to sanction that would only harm themselves not Russia or China. I knew the Western Elites were dumb, but I am stunned that they are that stupid to be honest. They know absolutely nothing about Math, Physics, Chemistry, Military History, History, Economy. They are just a bunch of networking slimeballs who went up the ladder via ass munching and buttering up the and parotting the right people.
Our politicians are indeed dumb, but they have nothing to say. They are just following orders. After all, they were made. Have a look at WEF’s Young Global Leaders program or Tavistock Institute. They are useful idiots to the ones that are really in control.
El plan de la guerra de ukrania sido forzado por usa ,por una parte maneja a los líderes idiotas dela UE y por otra la intención es Separar a UE de Rusia.
Creo que Alemania estaba acercándose a Rusia económicamente ( ns2 ) y todo lo que conllevaba ,,ahora EU estará en bancarrota y aislada de Rusia lo que rompe el camino para un evolución exitosa de acercamiento Rusia ,-EU y todo ello manejado por usa
machine translation
The Ukraine war plan was forced by the USA, on the one hand it manages the idiotic leaders of the EU and on the other hand the intention is to separate the EU from Russia.
I think Germany was getting closer to Russia economically ( NS2 ) and all that entailed , now EU will be bankrupt and isolated from Russia which breaks the way for a successful evolution of rapprochement Russia ,-EU and all this managed by USA.
Jesús, tu podrías tener razón okay ?
Pero… yo pregunto… los europeos son tan pero taaaaaan idiotas que aceptan alegremente las imposiciones de EE.UU. en contra de sus mejores intereses ? Por qué ? Niños no lo harían, intentalo ! O acaso los europeos están hipnotizados por El Diablo ?
Cordialmente, Jorge
============================================
Jesús, you might be right okay ?
But… I ask… are Europeans soooooo stupid as to happily accept what the US imposes upon them against their own best interests ? Why so, why would they do that ? Children would not do it, try it ! Or have Europeans been hypnotized by The Devil ?
Cordially Jorge
I can’t remember where I read this, but apparently US bailed out Deutche Bank as well as other non-US banks – if true, could this be the reason?
V for Vendetta,
I must be missing something, or maybe not.
I cannot sort out the European plan, if any.
Europe, the cradle of Western civilization ?
Following orders ? Why ?
Cordially, Jorge
The term “BRICS” was a word coined by the west, maybe it should be renamed “CRIBS” – the new Cradles of civilisation!
You are late, Tara!
Buds are growing already.
But OK The House of Civilization now is moving. Again.
No, it’s not new…
I would say differently – they – politicians – are use to generalizations – not making decisions on precise data coupled with the reason they have the positions they do – with considerable compensation – current and futures – is they have pledged to take an order and not question the logic or source of the order – just do what they are told
further they are told – no one will stop them since everyone is on the “take”
it should be obvious that industry has put in very complicated systems to supply everything – from one point / supplier – to the next — and none of those people in the millions are saying……anything – in response to these directives – no push back?
Germans are engineering based – lots of education / experienced people – no one is offering contrary opinion – all assume their job depends on…silence > not performance
so the entire system in Germany is going to grind to a halt – as stock outs occur – not just chemicals but downstream end user producers of next product.
why is this happening ?- somewhere – someone – has given an order which cant be questioned – but that party doesnt understand the intricate web of consequences and believes it all can be switched on again easily and doesnt care anyway – they are not at risk!
everyone at the table is just taking meetings – no real participation – no real contrary opinions or data presented. just sit there and shut up.
Johnson / Biden / Macron / Schultz et al – are all dummies not serious people – who put them there? – how could they all end up on the stage at the same time? how could they all go along at their respective citizens expense?
how could they completely ignore Russia’s central position in the chain supply, economics and military capacity?
who is pulling the strings?
Why mankind is not yet ready for space. Can you imagine what would happen if a space habitat or Mars colony were run this way and how long it would survive?
gabon 45, you say
” Germans are engineering based – lots of education / experienced people – no one is offering contrary opinion – all assume their job depends on…silence > not performance ” I true that.
” who is pulling the strings ? ” I also question that gabon 45.
Who and why are they “taking orders” from as you say in that case ?
Why can´t such ´orders´(?) be questioned ???
They are all going to either blow up, or look very stupid and be fired by regular folks.
” … and none of those people in the millions are saying……anything – in response to these directives – no push back ? ” I´m confused as much as yourself gabon 45 but no matter how hard I try I cannot find any flaw in my BASIC reasoning
Please do help me in that, I cannot make headway on my own.
Trust me I have tried, hard, very hard.
This is an open invitation to you and also to all readers / commentariati / whomever.
But I would say that politicians only say “generalizations” for us to read and hear them saying, not because politicians do not make decisions based on precise data…coupled of course with the “reasoning capability” they should have in their unique positions regarding information + access to experts + etc etc
Thank you very much Jorge for your informative article!
It is another puzzle to understand how interconnected the economies are, how dependent we all are from one another. It almost can be compared to a heart that can not work without the right amount of blood flow, but it has to be healthy blood with enough oxygen levels etc.
As for the question who is pulling the strings and more importantly why. It is the one question we all look for an answer for.
I think we can all agree that all, really all politicians in Europe are in the pocket of either trans-Atlantic organisations which again are financed by the Military/Industrial/Complex. It is all very well hidden and you have to go around a number of corners to find the beginning of the string. The politicians have pursued a career and passed institutions which heavily brainwashed them along the way. They are well chosen by the string holders. They will not betray the string holders. Either they believe in what they say or they are being blackmailed/bribed.
They have to believe they are the good guys who are on the right side of history. But the same must apply to the string holders behind the scene. Also it all stays in the family. They (the string holders) are brought up in an environment that nurtures the belief that they are born to be the elite, they are born to lead, they are special. They deserve to be in the position they are in. They inherent it from their forefathers or a few are chosen and it comes natural to them. And of course they need to defend their position and their wealth in this world with all means against all enemies.
Remains the question why can they not stop at a certain level of power and wealth. Is it addictive? When is enough enough? Never?
What is the endgame? When earth is destroyed, do they realise that they are in the same boat? Does their psyche not allow them to make peace and let others profit and live as well? Where does the urge to accumulate more and more wealth come from? Is it a genetic disorder?
Who knows the answer?
Thank you Demeter for your words of encouragement that keep me going. I am a one-man band with a shoestring “budget” meaning my very low government pension, imagine ! So your comments are much-needed and most welcome. Furthermore your points all are well-taken. I follow your most valid line of thought. I still question — not he leaders as you have well described them — but the 95-99%. Are they sooooo stupid to allow being unnecessarily dragged into Armageddon ? How come ? What for ? Cordially Jorge
The reason is: God punishes, so they have to believe the lie as they did not want the truth (God’s word, his son, rescue only through Christ->Psalms 2):
II Thessalonians 2:10 ^
And with every deceit of wrongdoing among those whose fate is destruction; because they were quite without that love of the true faith by which they might have salvation.
II Thessalonians 2:11 ^
And for this cause, God will give them up to the power of deceit and they will put their faith in what is false:
II Thessalonians 2:12 ^
So that they all may be judged, who had no faith in what is true, but took pleasure in evil.
LeoTolstoiFan, I agree !
I read you, we are on the same page, and I can follow your line of thought.
And no matter how much I read everyone here, there, everywhere and also his sister, I still can´t understand Europeans, unless them are hypnotized by The Devil.
Honestly, I cannot sort out their game plan.
If you and I know all this, would you think Europe´s top politicians don´t ?
Of course they do, so I cannot figure out their (lose-lose-lose) strategy. No way.
I am surely missing something… or maybe not.
Cordially, Jorge
I’m a second generation immigrant of Chinese origin who has lived in Germany for over thirty years. Can’t speak about the other European countries, but at least in regard to Germany I might give you some answers.
The short answer is that German society as a whole has indeed become this stupid. That isn’t to say that there aren’t smart and knowledgeable people on the individual level who are well aware of the upcoming economic disaster. But German society as a whole lacks healthy mechanism on the political, societal and media level to adapt and course-correct.
Commenters already mentioned that the political elite is trans-atlanticist, but that is just the tip of the ice-berg. What’s far more important is that the German mass media has become trans-atlanticist to the core. Most print media, even local newspapers, have consolidated behind two publishing giants, the Axel Springer Verlag and the Bertelsmann Group. Both of them are neck-deep into the neoliberal agenda with one of the leaders of the Axel Springer Group openly stating (2020 or 2021) that solidarity in their publications to US foreign policy and the State of Israel is inviolable. Germany is also infested with US think tanks which the media loves to cite as so-called experts on foreign policy issues and there was a broadcast by two German satirists in 2014 when they showed how the chief editor of the German publication ‘Zeit’ Josef Joffe was participating in over a dozen different US think tanks.
The media class in Germany has also become homogenized, with the younger generation of do-well journalists being typical “Gutmenschen”, who were ‘educated’ through the Bologna process. They are people who vote Green because they think they care for the environment, believe that driving an electric vehicle makes them carbon neutral, try to eat vegetarian or even vegan, are always first to virtue signal on their social media accounts and think that doing these token gestures makes the world a better place. I’m generalizing of course, but one main point that Andrei Martyanov complains about when it comes to US elites also ails the German political and media class: they suck at STEM and engineering. They know nothing about it. Most members of the German Bundestag are law graduates, another big bulk of them are school teachers. Baerbock is a housewife with a supposed degree in international relations, so basically an empty degree while Habeck has a degree in philosophy. Contrary to popular belief, the German knowledge base in natural sciences and engineering has been slipping in recent decades due to a lack of interest of the younger generation and therefore a lack of young upcoming blood to replace the older generation that was capable of building and maintaining the German industrial wonder.
As of now, I can guarantee that there is no regular media publication in Germany, print, online or TV able to talk about the diesel shortage and Schwedt refinery the way you have done. The editors themselves know nothing about the topic and even when citing experts who do warn about the issues you’ve raised, they fail to instill the sense of urgency and danger that is appropriate because that would end up questioning the Western sanctions policy that is still sancrosanct within the media sphere. It has been the same with the Covid vaccines in Germany with every sceptic prior to 2022 who dared voice contrary opinions on the Biontec-vaccine (the Pfizer one) being character assassinated.
Germany isn’t a functioning democracy anymore and the mainstream media devolving into mere propaganda outlets is one big factor.
Xiaolei Mu, thank you so much for your most enlightening and precisely detailed input. I would never have guessed that the situation would be so hopeless. If what you correctly describe is today´s Germany, I wouldn´t dare imagine what other EU countries would be like. Thank you Xiaolei for a job well done and please keep posting. Cordially Jorge
Dear Amarynth (always my editor but right now in Andrei´s abscence my only editor).
I have just started my day still sipping down my first cup of morning coffee. I opened up The Saker web site and found my photo right next to very fine company, including Pepe Escobar, Vladimir Putin, Sergei Lavrov, and my friend Prof. Michael Hudson. Who could ask for a better start ??? !!!! Then I read down a bit and find that we already have some 50 comments approx. which means I better get to work and respond to some of them real quickly !
Of course, immediately I saw your input Amarynth — which made me think quite a bit, trust me — but decided to pospone my response because your conclusion not only is as valid as it is succint and attractive to read (excellent features) but it also triggered in my mind important corollaries which will require some time to put in writing… which is not always as easy as it may look to be… although I have no problem doing it.
So Amarynth, your comment is very powerfull and also intellectually, politically and technically provocative. Please bear with me and also accept why I call this Comments Section right here right now my second home. Cordially Jorge
“…the impact and complete life cycle of this stupidity has no end.”
I used to believe this was stupidity too, but let’s start from a different premise. Let’s start out with the statement that these people are as smart as any of us, with access to both the same and more detailed data than we have. When we ask the question ‘how could reasonably intelligent people create such a mess of things’, there are three probable answers, by design, by mistake, or by coercion. If we accept that BAD (Best Available Data) decisions are right approximately 50% of the time and observe the current track record then the answer appears to be by design or coercion. Reviewing the cause and effects of those decisions and action you can almost discern a pattern that has been well concealed by massive layers of bullshit and deflection.
Agree. Behind it all is a decade long plan to drop the dollar and shift the balance to China. Then the absurdities makes sense.
Then only thing open is whether the present development was wanted and on track, or they lost the management of it to Putin and Xi due to the unexpected hypersonic weapons in 2018 and OBOR in 2013.
@Tommy,
Great comment, I was at first inclined to disagree on your direction but I after a few considerations I think I can add a bit of meat to it and agree that is one of the potential answers to what lies behind the bullshit and deflection.
I think 10 years is too short a time, I think it’s pushing 50 as Nixon visited China in 1972 and that’s when the shift started to move production there. That’s also shortly after the start of Bretton-Woods II (1971), so reading between the lines, it would seem that the USA initiated the Petro-Dollar cycle then intended to use China to prop up the financial strength of companies by shifting from production to consumption and control and consulting. The US probably gamed this as a means of keeping China and Russia from reconciling while forgetting that history has a way of biting, and China for about 4,000 years stood astride the world as an economic, scientific, and cultural giant. I would think that with control of the economy of 1 billion people and strong US ‘sponsorship’ they figured this would stabilize demand (and value) to a gold decoupled dollar.
I’m guessing that the results the USA has achieved today is far off from what they wanted and I believe the USA has been gamed by far older, far more ruthless, and far more powerful forces. I’ll admit my thoughts on this topic are only half formed.
amarynth (this article´s editor)
Dear Amarynth, I finally made for some “special” time and got around to reply to your comment in certain ´deeper´ depth of sorts. Of course, it´s not the case that I have finished making my case, no way ! But I preferred to first respond to as many posters as possible in order to have the specific “ease of mind” required for this special occasion. To make a long story short Amarynth, I could not have said it any better and — with your kind permission — with due credit I will probably ´borrow´ your words sometime for future use. Your comment Amarynth makes a whole lot of difference not because you are the editor of this site but rather because — think about it — of the many factors that make you a genuine representative of the real, effective, target audience for my arguments, starting with your open confession from very first phrase and paragraph. Not a technically-oriented person but deeply interested in the topic and focused on its analysis.
So you said: “… It is almost non-intuitive for someone that does not know this industry. You build refineries and industry and the complete delivery to the end user on the basis of the available feedstocks, and not the other way around. It’s not that you build the major infrastructure A to Z and then go and look for the feedstocks. So, the infrastructure is a custom solution built for the inputs available…” Amen. Oils are different and not fungible. Refineries are fine-tuned for each specific oil blend if ever available in large enough quantities and constant quality and adequate delivery terms (!!) from reliable vendors…. Seaborne batch delivery complicates things even further and beyond, let alone inter-port supplies and dock to refinery pipelines to be revamped and upgraded such as the all-important Schwedt case. Different people, different vendors and different means and different products get involved (tankers, ports, docks, sea lanes, FAR longer distances and dis-continuities risks, etc. etc., etc.) Russian Urals blend had none of that and was already up and running smoothly in European refineries for decades yonder with everybody used to it and perfectly happy. Not anymore, or so it seems…
Regarding military equipment fuels of all sorts the problem is not only (1) availability but also (2) adequate and timely distribution in very broad, scattered cosumer points in very distant areas and (3) “social” theft from regular folks that lacking fuels for their own life-sustaining purposes might / would decide to prey upon their own military fuel in the understanding that surviving is far more important than fighting… for no reason I should add. I have personally witnessed the above-mentioned “social” theft in times of scarcity without any war going on. So imagine what it would be like…
The impact that fuel-failure would have is enormous. Social chaos, migrations, and sudden (conventional) military defeat are three instantaneous outcomes. In a matter of days (if not hours…) non-functional contagion would spread like wildfire. Now then, how could “fuel-failure” occur ? For one, even if everything is done correcty and ´by-the-book´ the switchover process from Urals blend to whatever is found out there ( I still have very serious doubts) is very SLOW and also very risky anyway it´s diced or sliced. Refinery people know this, and many times the damage done during trials is irreversible most specially under current supply crises all around. Partial explosions here and there are not a total surprise, they happen. Human resources are a weak link not only because of lack of knowledgeability & expertise — as this has never ever been done before, zero experience, not even thought of as a possibility — but also because today the younger ones want no part of any project of this nature. Millennials and Zoomers are not anywhere like long gone old-timers. And the instant the first refinery reconversion attempt fails, Herr Habeck will have to run for the hills and hide in a very deep cave.
Then you have the inter-EU country conflicts. Assume that for anyone reason, say, France is able to either successfully reconvert an important number of its refineries and/or find a suitable (yet limited) crude-oil supplier that no other EU country has. So they would have all launched themselves to the “ban the Russian oil” bandwagon but only France (in this example) would have a reasonable outcome. They never had such differences before, did they ? Intra-EU fuel gangsterism could blossom everywhere with yet more massive migrations…
And it goes on and on. The quality of the fuels possible obtained — if ever — would vary. Today Europe does not have such problem. As other regular ´take for granted´ supplies would simultaneously be missing or scarce (food, minerals, medicines, etc.) social chaos would fluorish.
I´ll probably think of additional comments, but I shouldn´t make this any more “longuish” . Above all my congratulations to you for such an excellent summary of the situation in 1 (one) single short paragraph Amarynth.
Cordially Jorge
It looks like “blow up the refineries” (as false flag attacks) will be the politicians only way to survive (Winter is coming, Jon Snow). And their survival, as we know, is all that matters. This multi-decade green energy fantasy of theirs had to come to an end somewhere, and it appears this is as good a place and time as any. The outcome was never in dispute, except in fantasy land. Do not be distressed, the rulers will survive; everyone else, not so much. It’s gonna be pitchfork and scythe time, which will give them the excuse they need to thin the herd.
Not if the people thin the WEF ‘tards first.
It seems that we in the West are seeing a sudden tipping point at which decisions are made by ignorant, arrogant politicians on matters which they do not understand at all.
They announce that Europe will stop using Russian hydrocarbons – and assume that their techies will figure out a replacement. Surely six months should be ample!
They are told about a new form of flu, and announce that everyone must be injected over and over with potentially lethal, untested compounds; everyone must wear masks; everyone must stay at home; and no one must tell the truth about any of it.
They provoke Russia’s special miltary operation in Ukraine, and then announce that it is “an unprovoked aggression”; and that they will send huge amounts of Western Wunderwaffen that will stop Russia in its tracks.
Apparently the link between brain, mouth, and reality has simply snapped. Although not the link between American cash and mouth.
This is one symptom of why it is that nothing anywhere in the West works in any practical sense any more.
We are stuck in an infantile culture where even those supposedly at the top of the hierarchical decision making pyramid are operating not in reality but in their own fantasy world – witness the bizarre conversation more fitting to a fourth form prep school common room at the G7 meeting earlier this week.
The metaphor which seems most appropriate to describe the collective West is that of a computer which
has crashed/or is in the process of crashing and the start up disk has long been discarded as an unnecessary cost preventing any possibility of internally generated recovery.
Dave Hansell, yesssss !!!
…”…witness the bizarre G-7 conversation more fitting to a fourth form prep school…”… including the comment from the UK Prime Minister ´shall we take our clothes off ?´… and the ´show our pecs´ follow-up by the Prime Minister of Canada !!!!!!
Also I get the impression many of the things that this immature bunch ever say (older men included) are the very first time they´ve ever thought of such idea as if merely thinking out loud with some off-the cuff casual comments that just in passing are intended to affect the whole world. Not statesmen or stateswomen, just dilettantes at the very best, and not even that !
And, your IT metaphor is quite pertinent Dave which with your permission I may even “borrow” from you for future use. At least millennials would instantly understand the problem at hand !!!
Great input Dave Hansell !! Cordially Jorge
No worries Jorge. Feel free. The obvious conclusion of course is that there exists no possibility of the West generating any kind of system recovery internally, via its own efforts. The start up disk will by necessity have to be provided from outside the West.
(Hopefully it will not be any version of the shite produced by Microsoft but something more stable and versatile (Linux?) that does not need patching every other day because of the business model of the twelve year olds running the shit show demands the latest version be shipped last Tuesday and we’ll iron out the bugs from the inadequately tested coding later).
We are doomed and screwed!!!Like that!
Incredibly informative.
A devastating and inescapable scenario for the EU.
So badly the peoples of Europe have been mislead by their incompetent political class.
If ever there was a time to grease and sharpen Madame Guillotine, surely it is now!
Thank you Lucky Larrikin or your favorable comment. I sure hope it´s usefull Cordially Jorge
Longterm reader, first time comment.
Jorge, Congratulations on your brave attempts to explain the technicalities of why the “oil supply chain” elephant is not only in the room but has now grown to the point that the exit doors are too small, so it can ultimately escape only by smashing walls down. Those who put the elephant in the room for poorly thought through reasons might wish to take note if they love their existing walls (metaphorically Europe).
I do hope somehow, somewhere, those “in charge” are reading your essays, as they need to understand how the world actually works rather more than you need to try to explain realities to them in terms they might grasp.
As someone who spent much of my working life in oil and gas field development at the sharp end, including for a time at the very source of said “Urals Crude” as it exits the ground (not recommended at 40 below zero in the winter) I can only concur that you have nailed the reality most in politics cannot understand, or deliberately avoid understanding.
And today’s “reality check” courtesy of your good self only focuses on the fuels and additives. Oil of course as we all know is also the base for the chemicals industry, hence plastics, fertilisers, computers, communications devices, car manufacturing, in fact most manufacturing of just about everything from mops to medical equipment that constitutes modern life for humans.
No oil industry feedstock supply ultimately means no car production, or diesel to deliver to fuel stations, so no need to worry about filling the tank.
Those currently running Europe are going to destroy it unless there is a drastic change in course.
Inostranets,
Thank you so for much for your praise, encouragement and technical exchange which, coming from someone like you with direct first-hand field experience means a lot to me and really does make the difference, trust me. The same as you, we both know how hard we tried hard to raise awareness on basics which should be well-known to decision-makers and their technical staff, right ? Well, they act as if they fully did not, or else leaders are doing this on purpose ? Inostranets, I am not smarter than many/most and have studied only little/some/enough about all this… so how can we both know more than the whole German Ministry of Technology and Economics ?
Trust me Inostranets that many times I strongly doubt my own thoughts and conclusions and I challenge myself re-reading my own articles trying to find “flaws”, but as much as I´d wish to I can´t find any so please help me guys !!! I only to come back with yet more solid findings regarding even more problems to the current situation and mis-management thereof. For example, as you wisely say…crude oil also means ” plastics, fertilisers, computers, communications devices, car manufacturing, in fact most manufacturing of just about everything from mops to medical equipment that constitutes modern life for humans “…
Your comment “… so it can ultimately escape only by smashing walls down….(metaphorically Europe) “. I true that Inostranets. And like your also rightly say we haven´t even scratched the surface with petrochemical products also !!!
Inostranets, by now I gather that some of “those in charge” must be reading these essays of mine because of the brief but focused feed-back I have obtained by some well-known European Parliament members (MEPs). They ask very few but yet pertinent questions and quite possibly have checked out my articles with their own technical staff. I still can´t know what conclusions they themselves may have reached. Maybe they think that both of us are some two crazy technical bogey-man weirdos for all I know (!!!) The problem is that the whole “system” is captured along the required political allignment. Let´s admit it, both of us are 100% politically IN-correct okay ? We are both against the Davos G-7 party line, not good, and politically it won´t get us anywhere right ? And they all beñieve and act as if it were all about politics even to the extreme of changing basic chemistry, physics and geology ! Many thanks again for your valid input Inostranets !
Cordially Jorge
It may not be complicated from the august perspective of the enlightened European Technocrats at all. What if all calculations, the single operative plan, is to maintain “European refineries.. built, matched, and mated to the Russian Urals blend to which everybody has become used to in more than one way?” And they intend to do this with “at any rate.. the already approved game plan is to” pirate Russian Urals oil and gas wells by force? They had hoped to capitulate Russia by the Spring, after tsunami of ‘sanctions from hell,’ and global boycott, with simultaneous successful war by Ukies, and internal implosion in Russia… so now they sit high and dry, none of those objectives achieved, yet still stuck to the script like Biden to an imagined nonexistant memory rather than seeing the real-time teleprompter..
PS – All this started developing since 2011 and likely before when Germany started shuttering nuclear PP with Fukushima as excuse. So the intent to deindustrialize and degrade fuel refining and energy supply is one thing. It harms Europeans alone. However the most disturbing action may be (12) seizing Russian LNG carriers, which both is direct aggression on Russia AND other customer nations, since Europe has “non-existent LNG terminals and non-existent supplies plus hundreds of un-existent pipelines and lots of additional land-logistical infrastructure!!!!” The devils want to harm others as they are harming themselves right now, and turn off lights worldwide. This needs immediate intervention.
Yes, of course in the end calculus it was another Rape of Russia in the making. Except, this time it won’t fly.
What can we say — No Ruble No Ride!
The seizure of the carriers – Russia has done their thing – They turned off the tap. Pain Dial time.
“Gazprom Germania, which used to operate Germany’s largest natural gas storage facilities, was taken over by Berlin several weeks ago.
In response, Gazprom stopped supplying gas to the company, which resulted in problems for the key gas retailers in Germany and the UK. “
Question maybe with an unknown answer….as yet.. post Madrid determinations to fully military support from 50 countries the imbecile Ukraine til there is no more battlefield(or Ukraine)… USA and Nato and EU no response to Russian security concerns ….is it now time for Russia to give 1 month notice to shut of all oil and gas supplies to EU???? Force the issue.
Thanks Jorge..
I tend to agree, Russia should take the economic hit, and do it now. Before US/EU/NATO gets its act together.
It seems tempting but the other way around has its advantages also. Let Zone A burn through cash and diesel in futile attempts at reaching a very opaque target. They make fools of themselves more and more every day towards the rest of the world. And the support of the rest of the world is also vital for Russia
@Gilmartin. Thanks for your comment. It make me laugh when I read “before US/EU/NATO gets its act together”. Will that ever happen?
I assume planned destruction by order of the 0,0001%.
Habeck and Baerbock (married, 2 kids and hence not a Fräulein anymore) are useful idiots – both thick as a brick.
Last Stooge, thanks for the info I did not have. True enough, Baerbock is not a Fräulein anymore. Cordially Jorge
That would be a mistake.
If Russia cuts off the petroleum unilaterally, the WEF politicians will twist that into casus belli, and whip up their populations into support for a full mobilization war.
Letting the western politicians hang from a noose which they tied themselves is much better — because you know that come December, they’re NOT going to eat crow and admit that they’re complete idiots.
The added bonus … the Africans and Arabs will flee Europe.
EU elites may need a military buildup partly for the purpose of slightly later fending off the masses and to strengthen the ties with the part of the working force related to the mic. Meanwhile the great reset is ongoing and the wages will be comfortably suppressed to make the spoiled westerners poorer but more competitive. The very real climate change doesnt go fast enough so the elites used Covid Ukraine and more to come. The mass immigration in Europe and the US will be a recruitation basis for the forthcoming bootcamps in preparation for Nato’s piracy operations aimed at Chinas merchant ships. Reminding of the days of Sir Francis Drake.
I have to digress a bit, since I recently encountered MIT’s Jeremy England’s discovery concerning how selfordering systems, connected to a heatbath, and reminding of biological life may be seen as examples of a general principle explainable from basic ie reductionistic physics. The idea is that a clump of inanimate atoms would be able to dissipate more energy to the environment by becoming more ordered. In particular he mentions that such a system if it emerges would be able to multiply this property most effectively by making copies of itself.
Now the reason I bring it up in the current context of geopolitics and oligarchic financial power games is that I have been looking for some such physics idea for explaining the persistence of the kind of economic system we are familiar with and since we may be at a pivotal time in history where the emerging competing system may now be gaining persistence – or not. After getting familiar with Jeremy’s ideas I sense that they might apply to a much wider array of applications regarding all ordered phenomena inside civilisation as well as in nature.
Very interesting digression. evolutionary biology echos everywhere. I recommend looking up and reading anything by Nick Lane, if your not familiar with him.
I have been toying with a similar idea, which assumes a thermodynamic root behind self-organizing systems, including life, cognition, economics, etc, but especially looking at feedback loop formation. We are looking for deeper transfinite ordering principles within the “soup”, as opposed to “chaos”. Sort of a meta-organizing principle which touches upon all these systems.
What “competing system” are you referring to? Do you imply one with specific advantage in the thermodynamics sense?
From my research so far, we see a nexus between “least action principle”, transfinite series like the golden section, life, and thermodynamics, and self-similarity at different scales (fractal geometry). It’s all very interesting to me.
It seems that the masters of the universe are trying to steer civilization into their image, by destroying gods work, so to speak. Under this mentality, I do not think they will be able to deploy special scientific advantage, including so called AI, because all things destructive of the general population will ultimately undermine their empires by killing the genus and good will on which it relies.
With competing systems, Mr-Mayhem, I meant systems like BRICs a system which unlike the typical financial oligarchy which we are accoustomed with, is intent on development. The existence of the financial oligarchies is suggested by for example Lyndon Larouche as something persistent so I take it there might exist some ordering principle. And although I didnt depart from Larouche, he actually also mentioned a connection to the transfinite citing Cantors theoretical work. I wouldnt dare to have an opinion about Larouche ‘s theory which connnects economic development to energy expenditure and innovation.
No the point I wanted to make was that Jeremy posits this connection with an effective/maximised energy output following from apparently very general ordering processes. Previously I have encountered a lot about life as something which dissipates and produces entropy in the environment. This lies very close to what Jeremy brings fprth but I haven’t heard anyone put the emphasis on the energy aspect like that.
It seems as simple as it could be and yet has this not been stated before?
I mean it seems like Jeremy may have discovered a universal engine principle driving the worlds evolution as well as everyday functioning. There may be exceptions but I think it is an attractive idea and that it is here to stay. One might guess that it is possible to define a generalised energy concept and then check for what structures would maximise it in various system theoretical contexts. Be it economic or other.
I think fractals may be somewhat related to what Jeremy said about making copies of one self as an effective method. I wouldnt be surprised if chaos theoreticians already have defined suitable energy concepts for testing the Mandelbroit Set or whatever system.
Nature’s calling: its the energy stupid!
Thanks for your clarification on BRICS as the competing system.
I am subscribing to the ideas of Mr. Hudson and Mr LaRouche, seeing they are essentially coherent in a broad sense, that one of their major points in common is differentiating between industrial capitalism and financial capitalism.
LaRouche goes deeper by expanding upon the chain of causality pertaining to human creativity providing new innovations, bootstrapping to a higher plane of physical advantage or power of labor, and how such quanta increase in frequency and density within the system as a whole.
The idea corruption begins with conflating “making money” in the Wall Street sense, versus generation of wealth as bootstrapping of the productive power via investment into research, technology, and innovation.
The question of which is primary, shareholder value or the general welfare.
Globalists insist on non-interference from governments, ant-sovernity. This gives monopoly financial piracy free reign, and the monopolists capture the government, and impose a cannibalistic policy upon the middle and lower classes unimpeded.
The critical aspect of sovereignty, is to keep monopoly capital under regulation, so it doesn’t take over and expose the people to the whims of financial cartels.
There are very few people alive today who can properly connect human creativity to economics. The challenge is that they have to connect the entire history of humanity as a series of bootstraps in power relative to nature, while being looted by oligarchs, who bootstrap rent leverage until society collapses.
An underlying idea of an elegant principle of life, love, cognition and least-action is where I ended up after understanding the ploy behind most everything else claiming to describe economics. The power of a concept is also situated within its historical context, so there is a question of undervalued ideas that are simply ahead of their time.
It’s refreshing to see someone raise an idea so similar to my deepest thoughts.
The question we face now is how to historically intervene during a run-up to a dark-age.
I don’t know about this DEF issue. I own a diesel and have never had to buy DEF. Never even heard of it. When I followed the link to motorpoint given in the article, it explained it was something Americans have to put in the engines. I don’t know what Europeans have to do. I live in the UK btw.
Hi vince. This should clear things up.
https://www.drive.com.au/caradvice/what-is-diesel-exhaust-fluid-adblue-and-how-does-it-work/
Our country (australia) just had a shortage after China cut urea (fertilizer) exports. Modern diesels wont run or even start without it. Kaput.
Modern diesels can apparently be made to run without DEF, but it required disconnecting the inputs to the engine managment computer to make it happen and it is illegal to do this as it increases exhaust emmisions.
Once enough pain is created the law will get changed, that much can be counted on.
” It’s worth knowing that under law, a vehicle with an empty DEF fluid tank will not start. And under hard working conditions (like four-wheel driving and towing), consumption will increase along with your fuel consumption. Don’t get caught out; it’s just as bad as having no fuel.”
https://www.drive.com.au/caradvice/what-is-diesel-exhaust-fluid-adblue-and-how-does-it-work/
Europeans do it also. AFAIK, some engines that need it can run without but the taxation for trucks on the highway is, among other things, tied to the Euro exhaust level of the engine. So if you drive without, you’re a tax cheat.
And lately I get the impression governments are calling more and more “levies” and “fees” taxes because there is a good system in place to collect them so they don’t have to create a new enforcement system. They just add it to the yearly bill and skin you accordingly. Might be common knowledge, might be a fantasy though
Yes I have some doubts about this also as I know the older diesels didn’t use or need DEF. I spoke to a friend who works in this field and he had this to say:
“Only works on cars / trucks fitted with DPF (Diesel Particle Filter) systems. Eurocat engines basically. That’s why there’s money made in having these systems bypassed as ironically it reduces mpg and restricts performance when there are issues with the system or when you need to top up/run out.” See also https://defdeletekits.com
So the answer to the food and ‘stuff’ delivery crisis Jorge refers to is to remove the DEF/DPF systems and get the EU regulations changed or ignore them – can’t see many objections arising from that if the population are starving or can’t get stuff delivered. But we are talking about the EU here……
As for Jorge’s comment “So without urea anywhere around either of European origin or imported from wherever then no DEF for Europe which means no diesel engines for Europe okay?” No, not okay. Jorge is not considering simple workarounds which exist, but if there’s no diesel anyway DEF is irrelevant. Unfortunately because of this exagerration by Jorge I’ll now have to check out his other assertions for accuracy. Shame really.
No, your comment is the shame really.
Please start checking. I’m waiting for your list. I’m sure you know all the regulations world wide for older diesels and newer diesels. Start with tractors.
Arthur, as you may know or guess, I am very short of time right now and have postponed my response to many important comments I will eventually answer of course but not right now for reasons explained which are surely well understood, I hope.
Still, I will make the point of replying to your comments for reasons of credibility regarding the absolutely needed DEF requirement of diesel engines. Arthur, I understand that your “simple workarounds” would be most unproductive.
(1) DEF requirements described do not apply in the US for the very few diesel engines manufactured before 2010 and still up and running
(2) If you by-pass the DEF system ( or cancel it altogether) you will definetly have problems starting up your engine in cold weather which I guess is too high a risk to run, isn´t it ?
(3) I take for granted that diesel engine owners are law-abiding citizens that would not want — or benefit from — violating the established law besides also seriously damaging their diesel engine.
(4) Arthur, per your own website referenced above … QUOTE…” If you do choose to delete your DEF system, it is important to note that your vehicle will no longer be emissions compliant. This means that you will not be able to register or insure your vehicle in most states. Additionally, deleting your DEF system may void your vehicle’s warranty. Your car’s DEF (diesel engine fluid) is important to keep up. This is because it helps to cool and lubricate the engine, as well as keep it clean. If you don’t have enough DEF in your car, the engine will overheat and eventually break down. You’ll also see a warning light on your dashboard telling you that you need to top up.”
(5) Your own source website goes on to say :…” keeping your DEF levels topped out (full)… will save you a lot of hassle (and money) in the long run.
(6) If your DEF level is low, don’t wait to refill it. Driving with a low DEF level will cause your vehicle to enter into “limp mode” which limits your speed and engine power. It’s important to keep your DEF level topped off to avoid any issues while you’re on the road.
And it goes and on… so I guess we would both agree Arthur that good DEF upkeep is important, do we ?
And regarding what you consider to be an “exaggeration” (not) and now requiring you to check out my other assertions for accuracy, “shame really”(sic) I please welcome you to do it and report us all about any other “fact-check” of yours which I have been begging for all along because this is pretty much a “sparring session” with friendly poster folks like yourself Arthur, so imagine what a Zoom worldwide debate would mean with me facing Herr Habeck or Fräulein Baerbock with the whole German & EU establishment backing them up and supporting them all along on this subject !
But certainly I would not think that “the answer to the food and delivery crisis Jorge refers to is to remove the DEF/DPF systems and get the EU regulations changed or ignore them”. That would be a very different Europe from what we have today and Herr Habeck and his powerfull Greens would not allow for it, would they ? And as you say Arthur if anyway there´s not enough diesel fuel around we should not even discuss DEF, should we ? Arthur, your comments are well-taken and please do let us all know about any other constructive criticism you may have now or in the future. Cordially Jorge
“Arthur, your comments are well-taken and please do let us all know about any other constructive criticism you may have now or in the future. Cordially Jorge”…
I Enjoy reading along, not commenting much these days.
Lol. I don’t think Autist Arthur anticipated Jousting with Jorge.
Vince,
Check it out, DEF applies to every diesel engine in the US, the EU, and elsewhere after 2010. Now with Brexit I wouldn´t be sure what happens in the UK from the legal point of view. Of course, I can´t know what may be going on with your particular diesel vehicle. Still, check it out in DEF to avoid possible problems, even from the maintenance and performance pooint of view.
And, of course, there is also the most probable lack of missing diesel lube oil issue that most people don´t pay attention to as part of the refineries petrochemicals etc. No lubricating motor oil, simply no engine possible, whether diesel or not. Lube oil lubricates any moving part of any machinery no matter what fuel it may run on. Cordially Jorge
Rusvesna today
The Germans booed the Vice-Chancellor for the words about the sanctions against Russia | Russian spring
Residents of Germany booed German Vice Chancellor Robert Habek after his words about the need to adhere to the imposed sanctions against Russia, the newspaper Die Welt reported.
Habek spoke in the German city of Schwedt, home to the large PCK oil refinery, which is experiencing difficulties due to Germany’s decision to completely abandon Russian oil supplies through the Druzhba MNP. He assured the workers of the plant, who are afraid of losing their livelihood, that “the authorities will do everything possible so that the enterprise and the region as a whole do not sink into oblivion.”
The politician said that Germany needs to adhere to the sanctions imposed on Russia.
The listeners of Khabek’s speech met such words with whistling and dissatisfied shouts. Die Welt readers were also not optimistic about the future of the German economy due to restrictions against Moscow.
“Now let’s think about who dragged us into all this – the Russians or Khabek with his stupid retinue and the Americans?” the user asked.
“Maybe we should reconsider the sanctions policy towards Russia or we want to die as adherents of the concept of excessive loyalty to Ukraine?” another supported him.
“Just launch Nord Stream 2. As a taxpayer, I expect economic policy from the federal minister of economics. That’s the point,” said the reader.
“Habek does not represent the interests of the citizens of Germany, he acts against his own people,” another user stated.
Источник: https://rusvesna.su/news/1656617275
JJ thanks, nice find, good eye.
Herr Habeck better know what he´s doing, or else…
My best reply — and advice — would be found at
/germans-schwedt-hard-for-russian-oil/
Cordially Jorge
Hi JJ, your posts are always valuable.
I am following Herr Habeck on a day by day basis and I get the feeling that FINALLY it has dawned on him the terrible Catch-22 he has placed all of Germany in and also the whole EU as a consequence. Habeck has today made specific reference to all the problems presented in my article regarding the Schwedt refinery.
I am not implying he reads my articles out loud every morning before breakfast. No, all I´m saying is that by whichever means or information sources he finally got a hold of, Habeck now seems 100% AWARE of the problems that, if the anti-Russian course of action is not 100% reverted immediately, his policies will necessarily stop all of Berlin dead in its tracks, with the Berlin airport (imagine !!) and a large Western area of Poland without fuels and lube oils without which NOTHING moves or works sorry to say.
Herr Habek will probably not be visiting anyone anywhere nor make any public presentations before the press as he is now politically very highly exposed and time is running out.
JJ please keep up the good work, we count on you !
Cordially Jorge
If all this is true, i’m going to be sitting pretty w/my 58 Mercedes diesel seeins hows it does run w/o the additive and takes domestic blended engine lube.
I feel sorry for the rest of Europe’s peoples, you got steered off the cliff.
Yep, the Eurolemmings can be pitied.
@Lucky re: “EuroLemmings”.
Reminds me of the ending of a whimsical story by James Thurber:
“What I don’t understand” said the Human, “is why you Lemmings insist on committing suicide”.
“What I don’t understand” said the Lemming, “is why you Humans don’t”.
Is the EU$A trying to catch up with Thurber?
I
The logical conclusion to all this is the technocratic facists WEF et al get their world finally. Inflicting maximum misery upon humanity under their control. Release a few germs etc and the survivers become living under the dome types. Interestingly my country australia has only just started seeing the outcomes of vaccines. 40% higher ambulance callouts for heart attacks in the last year qld health minister quote. 1000% new born infants hospitalised from breathing complications. 17.5% excess mortality than other years. Still the public message is get boosted. The statistics keep adding up. I dont believe for a minute the collapse of continents economically is not fully planned and gamed out.
Apparently, without any other option available, Europe will crawl back to Mother Russia and beg for relief. They simply must, no other option exists. The only question to be answered, what will it cost? The answer is apparently coming soon.
@Roy :”Europe will crawl back to Mother Russia and beg for relief.”
Not likely. Most likely swallowing pride is so hard that system should first collapse and there is no alternative political class able to replace this 1991 August euforia hybris eurobroiler generation.
Siempre es un placer leer tus artículos, Jorge, me iluminan!
It is always a pleasure to read your articles, Jorge, they enlighten me!
Angeles, mil gracias por decírmelo ! Me encanta y necesito escucharlo de personas como vos porque me hace toda la diferencia saber que sirvo para una buena causa. Un respetuoso y cálido saludo para vos de Jorge
============================================
Angeles, thank for letting me know ! I love and need hearing it from people like yourself because it makes a whole lot of difference for me to know that I´m being usefull for a good cause. Respectfull and warm greetings for Jorge
A lot of European so called elites will have to eat
some humble pie to put it mildly.The self inflicted
demolition job is just mind blowing in its scope
with far reaching consequences,the clowns and
fools in the G7 meeting all laughing hysterically
at inane jokes says it all,but beneath the laughing
I detected a terror unspoken.
Some people are deeper than they seem, but this lot seem to be much shallower. Trudeau we already knew about of course. But the rest?? Scary to be trapped in a game of chicken knowing that the steering wheel is in the hands of such idiots!
The thing that did for Germany in WW2, was above all oil. I’m not saying they could have won with more, but without oil, they could not even fight for a stalemate. They ran out of fuel in more than one theatre of operations.
Lack of oil is why they could not put the industries of Occupied Europe to work on war production. In France very little war materiel was produced, because most energy sources were deployed in Germany.
When Britain, with its then massive naval power and global reach, blockaded Europe’s oil, Germany was done for. The furthest they got to Russian oil, was a few advanced units near Grozny. Then the long trek back to Germany.
It seems Germany has yet again failed to learn the lessons of history. Plus the US Occupation Forces, ensure Germany toes the line.
Gilmartin: “The furthest they got to Russian oil, was a few advanced units near Grozny”
Likely off topic but in 1941-45 Soviet Union itself could produce on average just around 19 million tons of crude oil while USA produced annually over 200 million tons. That world was very different. USA and Venezuela together produced over 70% of global oil. Biggest European producer was Romania, just around 6 million tons.
Very on topic IMHO. The only economics worth taking seriously is economic history. As to the future ‘we simply do not know’ as JMKeynes observed.
Note that the forecasts of the fall in Russian GDP of only four months ago is already 100% out. Not a fall of 15-20% but 10% or less. In my view quite a lot less.
Gilmartin, I true that. The Caucasus oil was the goal of the Wehrmacht in WW2, but Hitler got distracted with Stalingrad, saw it lightly militarized — or was told so by German intelligence — liked the name it had (“Stalin….”) thought it would be an easy fight… tried to conquer it… and lost it all. Not to mean that WITH oil the Germans would have beaten anyone in the long run, but WITHOUT oil they had no chance winter, rain, mud and all. My father-in-law (Italian) was right at the front-line battles by the Don River “loop” in 1943 and took the next-to-last train out of Millerovo station after walking his way there in just one day (15 kms.) through woods, snow, strong winds, no food, no water. He left it all down on-record by his own handwriting in his personal “Memories” as soon as he got back from a Polish prison where, being Italian, he was made ´political prisioner´ again with no food, cold, etc. etc. leaving there 6 months after with height 6´3″ and weighing 95 lbs… interesting reading. German General von Paulus was trapped surrounded by the Russians and wanted to surrender as they had zero chances with no fuel at all. But Hitler would not let him surrender despite every German there wanted to. So finally, after losing 50 thousand men to starvation, von Paulus surrendered to the Russians his remaining 90 thousand men with no permission and was therefore demoted by Hitler after having named him Field Marshall, the topmost title in those times.
My question, if you allow me Don Luis, is the following, in an economy with a severe crisis, how can we project new refineries and complementary facilities if there is no money to keep the existing ones in operation; How long will it take for all the refineries to be paralyzed due to lack of maintenance?
Excuse my name mistake, I meant D. Jorge.
Oscar de Caracas, you are basically correct, but it is even worse. What is needed is to reconvert, retorfit, adapt and tune refineries for refining different oils, non-Russian very different oils. Technically it is not possible to do any refinery conversion though, with or without money. The whole European system runs today with a single Russian oil (the Urals blend) of superb quality and price. Changing the Urals blend would be like trying to change the oil inside your engine while cruising at 150 km/hr on a German autobahn, So the only way to keep Europe running is to stick to Russian oil & gas not changing anything. Once that Franz married Natasha the divorce was impossible. Too many “children” too many mouths to feed. Too late for divorce. Cordially Jorge
«Time is of the essence and in more than one-way time is already up»
it is a race between EU fuel needs and regime change in the Russian Federation, in essence the EU countries are betting a lot on a second “yeltsinization” before the end of the year.
For the USA it is a win-win: either the Russian Federation is “yeltsinized” again, and then the EU gets their fuel and the USA get their chain of DOD/CIA bases on the chinese border (the bigger win), or the EU and Germany in particular become even weaker and more need of USA “protection” (the lesser win), and anyhow hard work to “yeltsinize” again the Russian Federation will continue.
That’s what I am thinking. The European leadership know that oil refineries are non-fungible and so they are betting the farm on Russia losing… by December, while Russia’s strategy is to bankrupt the West in a slow war: Russia is doing everything to slow down its eventual victory.
>>>it is a race between EU fuel needs and regime change in the Russian Federation
Thank you. While grander, more nefarious motivations might be in play, I believe you summary explains exactly what is going on in the minds of the EU politicos.
The above is not all that different from Hitler’s stated expectation that the Soviet Union was a rotten structure, and all the German military needed to do was “kick in the door”. That roll of the dice didn’t work out as planned, and neither will the EU’s.
«Hitler’s stated expectation that the Soviet Union was a rotten structure, and all the German military needed to do was “kick in the door”. That roll of the dice didn’t work out as planned»
It worked as planned: the USSR was quickly and severely defeated, just like the french and english empires earlier, and was about to collapse, and was kept going only by USA money and supplies and weapons.
In WW2 it was in effect the USSR that was fighting a proxy war on behalf of the USA against the nazis, “to the last russian” (Stalin kept begging for the USA to a second front on the west, but the USA were far more focused on conquering the Pacific). Nowadays it is “to the last ukrainian” against the russians instead. For the ruthless elites of a rich state like the USA it is quite convenient to say “let’s you and them fight!” :-).
Nowadays the Russian Federation is relatively much stronger than the USSR was in 1941, so it has better chances.
Sorry, that is just wrong and ahistorical. The German defeat at the gates of Moscow in late 1941 was the real turning point of the Second World War in Europe, and it happened before the USA was even a formal belligerent, let alone a supplier of aid to the USSR. The Soviets certainly had severe losses in the summer and autumn of 1941, but they had the great advantage of being able to trade space for time while they prepared their counterattack.
Lease-lend aid to Russia certainly made a difference in the latter part of the war: not in weapons, but in the mobility which Studebaker trucks and jeeps gave to the Red Army in its long march to Berlin. For that, the Russian infantry remains eternally grateful.
Blissex, I understand, I read you.
A helluva a bet though no ?
Trying to rape Russia yet again, despite that the previous 1990s “yeltsinization” attempt did not work out thanks to Vladimir Putin.
So, pounce on Russia soon enough is the current EU strategy…
Force a regime change, grab its resources, steal all, lebensraum policies, etc. etc.
I still can follow this line of argument though as the EU leadership is probably crazy enough to try it out.
Of course, I think Europe will lose it badly.
Question: do you think that most Europeans are aware of this explanation of yours ?
If they were, they would all deserve what´s coming to them, no pity, no sorrow, no tears for them.
Cordially Jorge
«Force a regime change, grab its resources, steal all, lebensraum policies, etc. etc.»
The EU “convergence” approach is not that brutal, more like Poland, Romania or Bulgaria: take advantage of low wages to offshore, and reward the local upper and upper-middle classes with managerial jobs. The colonial powers are following the USA model of getting a cut of the profits of a country, not all of the profits, as co-opting the local elites as “compradors”.
«I still can follow this line of argument though as the EU leadership is probably crazy enough to try it out.»
They don’t quite have an alternative: the main decisions are made in Washington, and they got to go along with them, with some wiggle room.
Their options are: be “sanctioned” and “regime changed” by the USA, or be “sanctioned” (but zero chances of “regime change”) by the Russian Federation. The latter is the less painful option. Until next winter, their best bet is to help the USA to push hard for regime change in Belarus, RF, Kazakhstan. Kick the can down the road.
«Of course, I think Europe will lose it badly.»
Not so sure, a large majority of USA-sponsored regime changes have happened.
«Question: do you think that most Europeans are aware of this explanation of yours ?»
Many (perhaps not quite a majority) at least in the countries where voters are aware enough not to trust the media. But they know that foreign policy is made in Washington, so they have little to no say in the matter.
William Rees-Mogg in “The Times”, 2006-08-07:
“When Jack Straw was replaced by Margaret Beckett as Foreign Secretary, it seemed an almost inexplicable event. Mr Straw had been very competent — experienced, serious, moderate and always well briefed. Margaret Beckett is embarrassingly inexperienced.
I made inquiries in Washington and was told that Donald Rumsfeld, the Defence Secretary, had taken exception to Mr Straw’s statement that it would be “nuts” to bomb Iran.”
Side note: he had more precisely said that it would have been “nuts” to *nuclear bomb* Iran, he was not objecting to some of the usual conventional bombing.
“The United States, it was said, had put pressure on Tony Blair to change his Foreign Secretary. Mr Straw had been fired at the request of the Bush Administration, particularly at the Pentagon. … The alternative explanation was more recently given by Irwin Stelzer in The Spectator; he has remarkably good Washington contacts and is probably right. His account is that Mr Straw was indeed dismissed because of American anxieties, but that Dr Rice herself had become worried, on her visit to Blackburn, by Mr Straw’s dependence on Muslim votes. About 20 per cent of the voters in Blackburn are Islamic; Mr Straw was dismissed only four weeks after Dr Rice’s visit to his constituency.
It may be that both explanations are correct. The first complaint may have been made by Mr Rumsfeld because of Iran; Dr Rice may have withdrawn her support after seeing the Islamic pressures in Blackburn.
At any rate, Irwin Stelzer’s account confirms that Mr Straw was fired because of American pressure.”
In most EU states and other USA protectorates top civil servants and generals, ministers, party leaders, newspaper editors are vetted by the local CIA head or the USA ambassador or the top USA general.
The USA president usually is not troubled with such mere details, his limited attention is focused on states that matter, like Texas or Israel or China.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4964236/Special-relationship-seen-joke-diplomats.html
“Barack Obama and his aides regarded the idea of a special relationship between Britain and the US as a joke, it was claimed last night. Jeremy Shapiro, a former presidential adviser, said the special relationship was ‘unrequited’ and he revealed he would insert references to ‘the Malvinas’ – Argentina’s name for the Falklands – into Press conferences. Mr Shapiro said that although US officials stressed the importance of the relationship to British visitors, they would make jokes about the Falklands away from the cameras. He added that the so-called special relationship with Britain ‘was never really something that was very important to the United States’. […] Referring to a 2009 survey that revealed 14 out of 25 EU countries believed they had a special relationship with America, he said the relationship with Britain ‘didn’t differ dramatically from other countries’.”
Still for many states (that is their upper and upper-middle classes) full independence is less valuable than access to USA-controlled resources and markets, and USA “protection” from socialism. That is also the opinion of a large part of the ukrainian and even russian upper-middle and upper classes, the 5th-6th columnists.
It’s relatively easy to see what are the true cosequences of this boneheaded strategy of European Greens – less and less European electricity needed industry. According latest aluminium production statistics China produced 59% of global aluminium during May 2022. Some 5-6% higher than in 2021 average.
https://international-aluminium.org/statistics/primary-aluminium-production/
When it comes the electricity price itself this week shew daily market prices up to 400-500 €/MWh. Even weekly average prices have been around 200-250 €. Prices are very high especially during morning and evening. In Neatherlands though all solar energy bandwagon and hype the reality is that on average 50% of electricity is produced by natural gas. 30 June the share was between 48% and 72%.
https://app.electricitymap.org/zone/NL
Habeck and Bärbock are 150% Transatlantic “Creation”
Bärbock was a Klaus Schwab (WEF) Solar https://www.weforum.org/people/annalena-baerbock
She “studied” “Politics” in Hamburg, got her Bachelor in double the time of normal intelligent people but were mentally not able to make her Master in German. In Politics (!!) which is here a “Talking Head” studies.
Therefore, they send her to the “London School of Economic”, LSE to get a degree at a branch which was created for dumb people around the world who had no chance of graduating. So she “studied” “International Law” which is an euphemistic title and means: “pay 13.000 pounds and we give you a “degree” where you literally need no work, no exam or test. 300 “graduates” from all over the world got there a “LL.M Master” without test, only a “work” of 30 pages (INCLUDING table of contents, abbreviations register (it is hard to believe that Annalena Bärbock knows any abbreviations))
So she got a “LL.M Master” which is nothing worth in Germany because the study at the LSE is not the precondition for a real LL.M. Master. Her final thesis is locked from the public, that nobody laughs him/herself to death…
To give her some sort of “wisdom” or reliability, she “wrote” a book, but afterwords it turned out that she copied most of it, it was a big “scandal” in Germany because everybody new that she was simply to dumb to write a book, even a cooking book, but the (transatlantic) media played it down
https://www.stern.de/politik/deutschland/meinung–baerbock-hat-abgeschrieben—das-ist-keine-kleinigkeit-30595540.html
Annalena Bärbock gave several interviews and talks in TV and it was in the face of the audience that her intelligence quotient was deeper than the floor under the carpet and the whole nations was laughing when she talked: she can’t even talk proper German, Putin can better talk German than Annalena Bärbock (seriously)
For example, in an interview she gave (her transatlantic role is/was “climate activist”), she talked about battery cars and storing energy, she permanently confused the “Kobalt” (the metal) with “Kobold” which in German means gremlin. It was no slip of the tongue, threw the whole interview she really thought that the kobalt metal was named “Kobold” (Gremlin).
These sort of things she did in EVERY interview, the whole nation knew that she was dumb as a can of beer. And that she is. She has an IQ far beneath 100. Everybody knows that in Germany. Except the transatlantic media.
Before the “elections” in 2021the “greens” in the German Bundestag were the smallest fraction and everybody knew, they even would get fewer votes.
Therefore, the transatlantic media declared this dump pile to “candidate for chancellorship): threw that manipulation, they could place Annalena Bärbock and Habeck in EVERY news, TV or talk show to give her prime time without any reason.
Because of that, people with little interest in politics or dumb “climate activists” voted for her, so the “Greens” got nearly, because of that scam, double the votes from before: 14,8%. (At a voter turnout of about 72%)
With this scam, the “Greens” could be place in the government and are simply US/Globalist marionettes with no knowledge, no expertise, no intelligence, nothing.
Robert Habeck “studied” philosophy but was also not very bright, the only achievement of him as a book for children….
Most of the greens have no proper education, nor knowledge, but that is not necessary: they only have to follow the orders from US/Deep State/WEF.
They know nothing about science, technical things or economy.
The situation in Germany is so bizarr and rotten that the USA chooses presumably the dumbest puppets, they could get. But BECAUSE they are so dumb (I don’t choose this word because I don’t like her but because that is a fact), they, under no circumstances, can be let alone and occasionally make something stupid which would counter the US “strategy”: so they gave her a nanny which let to the bizarre situation that a CIA agent who former worked as a “Greenpeace” chief, Jennifer Morgan, an American citizen, became a minister of state in the German government
https://www.rnd.de/politik/baerbock-holt-greenpeace-chefin-morgan-als-klimaschutz-beauftragte-ins-auswaertige-amt-EIWIOBS2JVGUVIMDFVXC4CL4XQ.html
The German government is so ridiculous and absurd that nobody, except the transatlantic media, takes them serious.
Because of that, the German government is a zombie of the USA and is working day and night against our German interests. (Olaf Scholz is an intelligent person, but maybe he can’t act free in a land which is occupied by 30.000 US troops…)
But maybe the disaster which is coming in autumn 2022 may wake up the people. But I have my doubts, the remote contro, the hypnotic and fanatic “awareness” is scaring me in memory of the year before 1939 here in Germany…
Europe is an oligarchy of political parties controlled by strangers who choose by hand who their candidates for congress are, the president of the nation is not elected by the people, nor are the deputies to congress; The president of the nation is elected by a coalition that does not represent the sovereign will of the nation, so what do the voters vote for? they only vote for parties in order of color and give an image of “democratic participation”… What is this type of “democracy” called? Weimar regime from which Hitler emerged.
Laertes, excellent input.
Now I have a couple of questions for you:
If all of this is so well-known (…as it surely is…) why is it that Germans accept what´s coming to them very soon ? Am I missing something ? It just doesn´t make any sense. Everybody is aware of the coming disaster … but is perfectly willing to accept it all ? How come ? I am at a loss here… Please explain, if possible. Thank you.
“Laertes, excellent input.
Now I have a couple of questions for you:
If all of this is so well-known (…as it surely is…) why is it that Germans accept what´s coming to them very soon ? Am I missing something ? It just doesn´t make any sense. Everybody is aware of the coming disaster … but is perfectly willing to accept it all ? How come ? I am at a loss here… Please explain, if possible. Thank you.”
Jorge,
1. “why is it that Germans accept what´s coming to them very soon ?”
Because an amount of people don’t know. Really. Media is controlling the minds. Not of all, but of some degree of substantial amount. In a “democracy”, you have not to control the majority, you don’t need even control more than 50% of the people. [1]
How do they control it?
Its about media (as everybody knows)
But media in Germany is different: there are some publications in “private” hand, about 5 persons/institutions (which are strongly transatlantic) controlling the printing (Web) press. They all (most of them) have to be member in the “Transatlantic Bridge”, a US-run institution in which they get their “orders” ( https://swprs.org/netzwerk-medien-deutschland/#foobox-1/0/netzwerk-medien-deutschland-spr-mt.png?ssl=1 )
There are some “private” media, but the biggest are the “Öffentlich-Rechtliche” with the highest budget: the inhabitants of Germany are forced to pay an amount of money every month to finance the TV/Radio stations. Every household has to pay about 20€ every months. Therefore the TV, which is a Government TV (but disguised as “democratic” institution, has the highest budget: 8 Milliard (in US million), €.
The board of directors is constituted, and that is the “clue”, by the parties/Government which were elected threw government propaganda and out of other organizations in Germany which directors often are former government members.
If an inhabitant here in Germany would not pay the fee for TV/Radio, he/she would go to jail ( https://www.bild.de/news/inland/news-inland/seit-132-tagen-hinter-gitter-knast-besuch-beim-gez-verweigerer-77000870.bild.html )
But this system has even an better effect: because the government TV/Radio controls 8.000.000.000€ budget (known as “GEZ” (former notation)) every year, it controls which actor, which musician, which comedian, whoever, will be engaged. And that has the consequences that NO actor, no musican, whoever, dares to say something against the official propaganda. Only already famous and strong persons with a good financial background are able. And if they do, very seldom, then a shitstorm would brake out and, they even get criticized, abused, insulted by their own colleagues who’s existence are dependent from the official TV/Radio budget (GEZ)
This devilish system has an ancestor: the propaganda machine of the nazis. Although smashed by the allied 1945, they used the central structures which existed and so they established this centralistic system of propaganda, but in their favor.
Of course, not everybody is dumb enough to refuse to look behind the curtain, but if the money for living is rolling, why he/she should change something?
And the Government/Deep State/US puppets, don’t need to control more than 30-40% of the inhabitants because we, as humans, build the world (in German, there is a difference between “reality” (Realität) and “reality” (“Wirklichkeit”) out of our imagination. Often the imagination is congruent with reality in our nearest environment, but when we need information from the distance, we need a medium and whoever would control that medium would control our minds and consciousness (“Wirklichkeit”).
One could argue that only the dumbest persons would fall for such propaganda, but we have to remember that about 30% in every population have an IQ of under 100. Therefore there is a big resource for lazy voters. But also the state rate in Germany is very high, about 10% of all inhabitants are working for the state (or get income, pensions etc), that is about 20% of the voters.
Of course, not all of them are happy with this situation, but the mind controlling media/TV/Radio is everywhere and even if a majority is opponent to this system, their awareness, threw the media, is, that they are a minority.
This fact arose (were jeopardized) last fall when millions of inhabitants, citizen were demonstrating against vaccination mandates in Germany: this was amazing, in every city, even in villages, people were standing up against government and the (as some believe, and many experienced, fascistic politics of the government).
Media, TV, Radio/News paper were on high alert and rotating at high speed to vituperate, blame, spread the lie that that were all “Nazis” (which is ridiculous in front of the fact that they support real nazis like Azov Battalion, Ajdar, SS-Galizien in the Ukraine…)
(And when Russia invaded into Ukraine, the protest potential of the anti vaccine mandates were still active and turned somehow into a critical mass against the official pro-Nazi line of the German government (in favor of Ukraine)…)
Things are floating…
2. Jorge “Everybody is aware of the coming disaster … but is perfectly willing to accept it all ?”
As I tried to explain: My simple words, I don’t want to stress Immanuel Kant, no. Not everybody, as a consequence of the media situation here in Germany, ist aware of the coming disaster… Their consciousness is made out of information. And as long as the (government false information) is somehow correlating with their surrounding, they feel “comfortable” and are willing to believe. But if their reality is confronted, their existence is jeopardized, then they start to ask questions. And winter in Germany is not a breeze: it is bitter. It is cold.
When this clowns like Bärbock or Habeck are cutting the energy supply, there will be much more protest and questions on the streets as in the winter 2021/22 (and that were the biggest and widest protests I experiences since 50 years in Germany and I´ve been on many…)
I do not like it because the wish for zero energy in Germany in a winter is like a death wish, but I fear that there is no other way. The elites corrupted our political structure (and ruin our democracy when they decided to let the fake climate-“menace” annulate our constitution, our society, our environment, our industry) to that way that the presentation of our government has nothing to do anymore with the inhabitants and people of our wonderful country.
I am sad, not about me, I am thinking of the old people who already can’t afford the heating in winter, I am thinking of the millions child this winter and I literally think every night, every our of the coming situation.
(They banned me from social media, they banned me from Twitter because I picked the nazis in Ukraine as discussion theme), we can’t do anything except for the coming demonstrations…)
The only hope is the people.
[1] Nordrhein-Westphalen has 18 Mio inhabitants from which about 13 Mio are entitled to vote. But the turnout was about 55%. That means that (about) 7 Mio deciding the government. “CDU” (“conservative” party) got 2.6 Mio, “Greens” 1.2 Mio, they build the government with about 3.8 Mio votes, from 13 Mio voters. That is, 30% of the voters are deciding the politics. Again, from 18 Mio inhabitants.
In reality, government is elected normal only by a minority.
Laertes, thank you for such an elaborate reporting and your very focused and detailed explanation.
Accordingly, I am appalled Laertes and cannot see any reasonable way out except self-defeat, which is still possible you know. Otherwise the only way out is plain flight, physically get out of there, right now and abandon everything as if on board of the sinking Titanic. I mean in Poland people are now being instructed by the government to pile up wood sticks from the forests just like in the Middle Ages…
Laertes, you say the only hope is people. OKay, but I´d add that requires not just plain less-than-100-IQ “people” but rather ´well-INFORMED´ people such as yourself … which would seem something impossible in view of your excellent explanation and succint graph at https://swprs.org/netzwerk-medien-deutschland/#foobox-1/0/netzwerk-medien-deutschland-spr-mt.png?ssl=1
Of course, the solution to all of these problems we described would be simple and fast only if simple commercial relationships with Russia were allowed for. So I say that another possibility is for this disaster to start happening first…(yes, sorry)… maybe for a couple of weeks (or less)… and in view of the severe negative impact people would massively react and take power on their own hands. I am thinking in the guillotine. Please be advised that it´d be a very ´democratic´ phenomenon as having money would not help at all to buy what does not exist plus also surrounded by everybody´s starvation… and, actually, poorer people — with torches and pitchforks — would solve it faster by storming the political meeting places and venues of these bought-for politicians demanding solutions right NOW… or else.
I am following Herr Habeck visits and statements ( and problems quite frankly, I do not envy him at all — and I am slowly convincing myself that at the very last minute he would pospone the Russian oil ban simply because it would be political suicide for politicians such as himself. For example, he just visited the CPK Schwedt refinery and his statements reveal he is now becomning finally aware of the REL problem and that the “solutions” found are definetly not enough. Of course, if Russia meant real business on its own Russia could unilaterally cut-off the oil & gas spout just to let Germans get a feel of what´s coming to them and produce an instantaneous regime change in Germany.
Laertes, please respond if all possible I´ll be on the look-out of your feedback, better yet if posted at the very end of this thread as if it were a new post of yours, not a reply. It is easier for me to find you that way. And whatever happens let´s always keep in touch Laertes.
Cordially Jorge
Laertes, please comment upon this comment posted by Catherine waaay below in this same thread which I am re-posting here for your convenience and awareness
Catherine on July 03, 2022 · at 1:38 am EST/EDT
Dear Jorge… I perhaps think the Europeans are in a state of denial about what’s ahead for their economies, or… perhaps… there will be a 180 degree turnaround at the last minute and Russian oil will be flowing again.
The Poles have been told to go into the forests to gather wood to heat their homes! When I read this I thought it sounded like feudal times. So unbelievable! As the next few months go by and we get closer to winter maybe people will wake up and realize what’s coming. That’s when social unrest will start.
Your comments please Laertes. Cordially Jorge
Dear Laertes, the effort required for your accurate reporting — including your previous posts re Habeck and Baerbock — is clear to everyone. Below please find additional pertinent food for thought I have just copy-pasted in reply to another poster ( namely Amarynth, the editor of this article) in order to forecast the possible impact and regular people´s reactions probably with torches and pitchforks at hand. What follows applies to fuels of course, but also to food and everything really (including clothes, footwear, blankets, guns and ammunition, etc). Take good care Laertes
” Regarding military equipment fuels and of all sorts the problem is not only (1) availability but also (2) adequate and timely distribution in very broad, scattered cosumer points in very distant areas and (3) “social” theft from regular folks that lacking fuels for their own life-sustaining purposes might / would decide to prey upon their own military fuel in the understanding that surviving is far more important than fighting… for no reason I should add. I have personally witnessed the above-mentioned “social” theft in times of scarcity without any war going on. So imagine what it would be like…
The impact that fuel-failure would have is enormous. Social chaos, migrations, and sudden (conventional) military defeat are three instantaneous outcomes. In a matter of days (if not hours…) non-functional contagion would spread like wildfire. Now then, how could “fuel-failure” occur ? For one, even if everything is done correcty and ´by-the-book´ the switchover process from Urals blend to whatever is found out there ( I still have very serious doubts) is very SLOW and also very risky anyway it´s diced or sliced. Refinery people know this, and many times the damage done during trials is irreversible most specially under current supply crises all around. Partial explosions here and there are not a total surprise, they happen. Human resources are a weak link not only because of lack of knowledgeability & expertise — as this has never ever been done before, zero experience, not even thought of as a possibility — but also because today the younger ones want no part of any project of this nature. Millennials and Zoomers are not anywhere like long gone old-timers. And the instant the first refinery reconversion attempt fails, Herr Habeck will have to run for the hills and hide in a very deep cave.
Then you have the inter-EU country conflicts. Assume that for anyone reason, say, France is able to either successfully reconvert an important number of its refineries and/or find a suitable (yet limited) crude-oil supplier that no other EU country has. So they would have all launched themselves to the “ban the Russian oil” bandwagon but only France (in this example) would have a reasonable outcome. They never had such differences before, did they ? Intra-EU fuel gangsterism could blossom everywhere with yet more massive migrations…
Off this specific topic but relevant, another layer:
Backstory: Leviathan Gas Field
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leviathan_gas_field
Lebanon, Israel at a crossroads for gas wealth prospects
5 days ago Europe’s growing need for gas caused by Russia’s [intervention in] Ukraine is increasing interest in speeding exploration of gas fields in the Mediterranean Sea — and pushing Lebanon and Israel to settle …
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2022/06/24/lebanon-Lebanon-Israel-Mediterranean-gas-fields-border-dispute/9331656091466/
Plus:
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/germany-striving-to-develop-gas-field-with-senegal-amid-supply-uncertainties/
“I have said it before and I´ll say it yet again: no imagination can ever be creative enough to make this stuff up. No way.”
Imagine – if you can – 50 years in the future: how the hell, will future historians explain EU insanity in 2022?
I guess the easiest explanation is the best — EU elites are traitors who have been bribed by the US for so long they can’t see their treasonous noses on their faces.
Nothing else makes sense. Only what Lew Rockwell said (I paraphrase): The USSA gives the European quislings bags of cash. They are highly paid prostitutes. (although pimps might be more accurate, with the prostitutes, or slaves being the general population)
«The USSA gives the European quislings bags of cash»
That too, USA ambassadors, CIA local station heads, USA generals, USA based corporations have large slush funds to bribe politicians etc., or at least fund their elections campaigns (the USSR used to help fund, on a much, much smaller scale, the various EU communist parties).
But that is not enough: even nationalist EU politicians who cannot be bribed are absolutely terrified of their states being “sanctioned” by the USA (or being “regime changed” by the USA). The EU economies are very dependent on USA-controlled imports of resources, and USA-controlled foreign markets for exports.
The “mistake” of the chinese elites has been to want it both ways: to be substantially independent of USA “guidance”, and still to access USA-controlled import and export markets.
From the RT telegram news ticker .. Major News .. Russia is dialing up the pain dial.
Nord Stream AG will stop BOTH gas pipelines from July 11-21 for scheduled repairs
OK this is not diesel, but gas but this all makes the modern civilization survive.
And even more on the news ticker. The German biggest supplier of wood stoves and wood just told that they are out of stoves and out of wood. No supply expected on the short term.
Your comment connects nicely to another issue which must have exercised our minds.
Just how will Russia enforce it’s security demands issued last year?
It is safe to assume that Russia will have thought deeply about this as basically it is an issue of survival of the country with missile bases in Poland and Romania capable of sending missiles at Moscow with 5 minute flight times.
Moon of alabama suggests that without using military force there is a way to de-Americanise Europe and force nato back to it’s1997 borders.
” How Russia Can (And Will?) De-NATO-size Europe”
“Russia is a superpower in that it produces all kinds of raw materials the world, and especially the ‘west’, needs.
German industry leader have loudly announced that they will have to close shop if the current European policies of restricting Russian energy supplies continues.
Only with new and decent leaders will Europe come to its senses.
Russia can help to achieve that while at the same time solving its NATO problem.
It can publicly declare that:
THERE WILL BE NO FURTHER RUSSIAN SUPPLIES OF ANY KIND TO EUROPE UNTIL IT BREAKS WITH WASHINGTON.
To destroy the current system of U.S. hegemony over Europe, Europe will have to be de-NATO-sized. Regime changes in European countries will probably be necessary to see to that.
Russia’s leaders now have a once in a century chance to achieve those aims. They will be condemned by their compatriots if the refrain from doing so. ”
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/06/how-russia-can-and-will-de-nato-size-europe.html#more
I do wonder if the pipeline shutdown is the Russians “testing the water” as they realise that without firing a single bullet, they can achieve all their aims for a re-arrangement of Europe and a new peaceful security architecture and solve a whole bunch of problems – once and for all.
I have no doubt shutting the pipelines is a gentle reminder (warning shot) of ehat is to come.
Am I the only one who suspects China’s lockdowns of major ports over a handful of colds is also a warning shot?
“Only with new and decent leaders will Europe come to its senses.”
I don’t know about other EU-countries, but in Germany there are no “new and decent leaders”. They are all more or less on the same track.
Amarynth, some details have now been published at
https://www.rt.com/business/558203-nord-stream-to-halt-gas-eu/
Russia to suspend ALL gas supplies to the EU for 10 consecutive days.
After reading the comments there, with some readers wishing that the suspension were longer or even permanent, I’m not sure I’d want to read English RT again.
RT confirms at https://www.rt.com/business/558203-nord-stream-to-halt-gas-eu/
After a life of driving a truck, I was aware of the basics of this system, still good to have it explained in detail. A lot was said last years about the next really big conflict being about water, we would have been evolved beyond oil. But it seems it will be about oil anyway… on the upside, there will be no need to fight about the water afterwards :-/
So for the third time in appr a century, Germany completely screws Europe … In their dreams they are probably already boarding carriers with Russian oil, which they will confiscate and accompany to European ports to unload at European refineries.
How stupid can we be?
Why does Germany even have an army? Is it really just an excuse to keep the US military stationed there? To fill the pockets of the US MIC? Now they are going to spend an extra € 100.000.000 on the military and the yearly defense budget will be raised with € 60 till 70 billion. “Germany will protect Europe” said der Scholz.
Europeans just get a just reward for their stupidity, me included.
peter, okay I understand.
But still, why are 95% of Europeans willingly dragged into this disaster ? Are they in agreeement or just do not see it coming ? I agree when you say “how stupid can you be ?” Cordially Jorge
Great article by Jorge. Another concern is the inherent danger of more and more LNG tankers around people, ports and infrstructure. An accident or intentional strike on a tanker could result in an almost small nuclear like explosion (minus the radioactivity) due to the high amount of stored energy in LNG.
Thank you so much for the kind words BJ as you know I care and need encouragement just to keep on (and it ain´t easy I tell ya…) but above all you are very much correct, oh yessss. LNG tankers are always very very very dangerous… in the high seas, crew handling, lightening bolts, etc. But around people, ports, docks, and infrastructure, next or close by to existing urban distribution networks (where they would surely be located) I would not want to know the effective risk and insurance costs of such LNG storage and manouvering operations, de-pressurizing. etc. etc. Thanks for input BJ !!
BJ, with such intensive yet UN-planned and so many LNG activities the risk exposure sooner rather than later will take its toll. And then public opinion at large will react negatively and the problem will compound even further as no LNG to the rescue any more. And then no “emergency gas” to fill in the gaps.
” Volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exported from the US into Europe were higher than Russian pipelined gas in June ” . Soon we´ll all get the LNG balloons sight in every major European city…
https://www.rt.com/business/558208-us-lng-russia-gas-eu/
Hmm. The lack of urea seems to be a critical problem. Maybe we should organize a “piss for Europe” charity to help them out.
Love it, Jorge!
This reminds me of an old joke: Contra windum non est pissandum.
(Yandex will not translate this mix of Latin and English but the meaning of it
is well known in most languages)
In today’s arrangement of forces this ought to be updated:
Contra windum orientalium non est pissandum.
Best regards, Spiral
Or ´sputum airus stupidum est´… no ?
Russia has never rattled the cages over its ‘300 billion’ dollars in seized assets, at the beginning of the Ukraine skirmish? Even if futile, there should have been all sorts of legal processes set in motion, with court cases to recover the assets. They yet be coming, but surely the legal precedents should already be in third gear, and escalating!
Hello Jorge. It’s looking more and more like Germany will be giving us the first real time look at what the Great Reset will be like for the peasants. It ain’t gonna be pretty as you’ve said on more than one occasion.
Take care!
TravelAbout yes, and the coming disaster will affect the 1% also, not just the peasants. You can run, but you can´t hide. Them all in the same boat. As learned during the Middle Ages, massive migrations can be a very democratic learning experience for all. Take care, Jorge
The plan isn’t all that crazy if your real intention is to reduce the population of Europe substantially. No heat , no food, riots, complete societal breakdown. Sounds like just what the Eugenicsts want.
Tom, I follow you, the elites may want this outcome but but but…. Don´t 95% of Europeans see what´s coming to them ? Are they willing to openly accept this unnecessary harm ? Am I missing something ?? Please fill me in, I mean it. Quite frankly, it´s not credible to accept that Europeans would willingly accept no heat, no food, etc.
Yet still… I dunno.
Furthermore, even with money in their pockets the elites will not come out the other side of this disaster smelling like roses. No money will ever buy you food or fuel or heating if there´s not enough to go around. This disaster will affect every-body, literally. Even those thousands of miles away will be somewhat affected anyways methinkxs. Cordially Jorge
Hi Jorge, thank you for one more excellent article.
About why people don’t object and protest. Could it simply be that they are “emotionaists”, in the sense that they are only driven by emotions, not reason. In that case, the “natural law” is that it is always the “strongest motivation” that wins. Always!
So they will not protest as long as they are getting something that their emotions desires more than “fighting on the barricades”.
The Romans gave them bread and circuses, and today the elite knows even better how to “play their emotions like violins”.
That is why logical people can’t understand the emotionalists. In the “thinking” persons mind, the actions and reactions of the emtionalists don’t make any sense. Because the thinking person is driven by facts and truth in their pursuit of happiness (or power).
And the emotionalist is only driven by “whip and carrot”. So just give them some carrots, in this case food and shelter (for now – who cares about tomorrow?), and means and ideas how to fight against your neighbor, defending your turf/backyard, and how to get sex.
Strongest motivation always wins!
Unsophisticated ‘arm-chairist’: the Euro political class is obviously irrationally dead-headed and not subject to rational thought. If Russia completely cut-off all oil/gas to Euro for a period (?) to be determined, to indicate their real bankruptcy, that Euro’s self effacing pronouncements and indeed actions are dooming their peoples to utter misery and death in 23′.]\, perhaps reality could prevail – just sawing!
Russia only supplies about 20% of EU crude, plus about 10% refined distillates. About a third of the crude is by pipeline – the rest by sea and land. So the EU currently imports over 90% of crude by sea and 80% of its refinery capacity is not dedicated to Russian oil. Claims that the EU cannot deal with oil from other sources or by sea logistically don’t seem well-founded.
However whether or not those other sources can increase capacity (particularly other major EU suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and the US) is a moot point. US gasoline prices are going up mainly because of lack of refinery capacity rather than lack of crude and the EU appears to be trashing a sizeable chunk of its refining capacity. So much higher prices to look forward to.
The future? Russia is still selling to the West while it develops long-term markets with Asia. An economically-collapsed NATOstan on the western border is less of a military threat. I doubt a future return to cheap Russian energy, ever.
I was just waiting for somebody to start the “only x percent” numbers smokescreen.
How do you like the idea of suddenly being deprived “only” of 20% of your fingers, plus about 10% of your income? Still can’t feel inflation yet?
(No worries. According to western MSM, you’re doing the right thing!)
Haymer Doots,
Your last paragraph is unfathomable. It makes no sense, let alone in the context of “the future” which you posit. And if Russia were still “selling to the West” (as you say) it´d mean that the EU back- tracked its No.6 sanctions package with a full 180 rewind. But then you “doubt a future return to cheap Russian energy, ever” while Russia also ” develops long-term markets with Asia” which would obviously be very large and long-term, of course. So which is it ? Impossible to follow you Haymer.
And above all, I have not mentioned a single word about the higher costs for US gasoline prices. And my article said moot about the US refineries huge problem. So I can hardly make sense of what your real point is. Your second paragraph has a “trollish” whiff to it I reckon.
Percentages of Russian crude oil and distillates imported by the EU are a moving rollercoaster target, first affected by European 2018-2020 increased consumption, later by Covid and supply-chain disruption drops, then by post-Covid recovery increases, lately by Ukraine war impact…
Still, we differ in that today the per EU official sources import figures from Russia would rather be
(1) 30-35% for crude oil if considering “triangulation” re-sale of what still is and will always continue to be Russian oil (2) 20-25% for distillates etc etc
We do agree though in that, today, approximately one third of Russian crude oil is delivered through pipeline while the remaining are seaborne loads to be replaced in 6 months. But if considering the German-Polish committment to also replace the Northern Druzbha pipeline deliveries that would mean that 90% of Russian crude oil imported today by the EU would be replaced in 6 months. The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has repeated this to death many many many times in MSM worldwide. That would be 30% of EU crude oil imports to be replaced by non-Russian sources in less than 6 months. And yes, 30% of the EU refining capacity is currently and necessarily dedicated to Russian oils, of course.
Now then Haymer Doots please name names as beating around the bush is beyond non-productive at this late stage. Which countries (names please) would supply such amount of EU-refinable oil as refineries find themselves tuned and matched for today ? Venezuela ? Iran ?? Middle East ??? Saudi Arabia ????
Also, I have many times presented — in other articles which you have also commented upon so you have obviously read them also — very specific and very long (indeed) check-point listings of specific problems at hand for Russian crude-oil substitution which you simply and readily dismiss as ” don’t seem well-founded ” without any explanation whatsoever. Go figure, and good luck with that.
Haymer, my personal humble impression is that basically you do not know much about refineries, logistics or project management for that matter. Cordially Jorge
Brilliant analysis. No room for error.
Steven, thank you for your favorable comment. Still – and just between you and me — there is always room for correcting errors, so please warn everybody here to be on the lookout for such. Of course, I understand what are your trying to say Steven and — basically, despite being my own work — I do agree that at least I try very hard to triple check everything etc etc etc. But there´s always room for improvement, that´s what we all need. So I count on you being my “wing” man by pointing out whatever needs to be corrected. Cordially Jorge
How many Eussies does it take to open a fuel tap?
“re-introduced the dirtiest of coals, namely brown coal, as feedstock for German and EU coal-fired power plants …” [to charge electric vehicles, inter alia]
Genius Green German Girl.
“My salad days when I was Green in judgment” — Shakespeare, Cleopatra
Jorge’s article reminds me the case of Hitler’s personal physician who pumped him full of drugs which gave him a temporary high but undermined his health in a serious way, which was not immediately apparent. Hitler thought that his physician was a true genious unlike the run of the mill doctors who gave him advice typically like old women. In this case, some so-called scientific advisers of Western leaders are telling them to ignore warnings like those from Jorge. “Our Western science has progressed beyond such old fashioned concerns. We will show them that we mean what we say”.
Andrei Martysnov once put up a video on the theory of stupidity. That is what the world is up against. It is for each individual person to make up his/ her mind whether to go along with stupidity or wake up and walk away out of harm’s way.
Jorge’s mission is to sound the alarm as loudly as possible, as often as possible. Those who get it will be able to save themselves. For the others, it is their choice and their karma. We can just shed a sad tear and pray for their soul after this is all over.
Jorge, I really appreciate what you are doing. Thank you and God bless you.
esskumar,
God bless you esskumar for encouraging me with all that you have just said, I need it.
Regarding my own future personal impact, maybe because of having sounded the alarm so much so loud right now I feel that I will not be sorry for those harmed in the future. But we´ll have to see what I really feel when I really get to see what would be REALLY happening ( a disaster). And maybe I end up highly impacted, no ?
I mean, I´m only human and do not want disaster to happen. Being “right” is not my point, this is not about me. This is about hundreds of millions of people´s livelihoods ruined… or just plain dead. Thanks again esskumar. Take care Jorge
Another information packed piece by Jorge.
The determination of the Eurozone leaders to deliberately self destruct their own countries is self evident and using Russia as the scapegoat to hurt themselves is beyond imagination.
Why would they do this to themselves?
To satisfy their U.S. masters.
The EU and the Euro is a competitor with the US and it’s dollar.
With Europe soon to be in ruins U.S. corporations can pick over the carcass and snap up bargains. No energy? Well they can’t think of everything!
As long as the Euro is replaced by the dying USD in Europe. It may buy a few more months at best. Soon the USD may only be useful to heat the homes of the long suffering Europeans.
Then there’s the China-sees-China-does plan.
China sees Russia draw a red line which the U.S. crossed. China has a red line in relation to Taiwan. The U.S. is about to cross it.
China wants to act to seize control of Taiwan before Joe Biden gets thrown out. Trump might not be so easy as Joe to handle. The already weak U.S. couldn’t deal with another war front opening up in the Pacific, with Taiwan being swallowed up by China, so it needs to happen before the November mid-terms.
With precious metals and commodities linked to the BRICS basket of currencies to be used in trade within the member countries and those friendly to Russia, it’s a step toward the disintegration of the paper derivatives market used by the U.S. and the U.K. to squash the price of gold and silver. A high price means the USD is losing value against these two monetary metals. They wouldn’t want you to know that. They want you to keep using their fiat currencies because those who control the supply of money make the rules.
Those close to the liquidity providers
( financiers ) in the wholesale precious metals market like Andrew Maguire know more than meets the eye and even if you don’t get the jargon the message is clear.
https://youtu.be/_gJeTb7TqlA
Colin, thanks yet again !!!
I least I try my best to contribute with hard facts and informed opinion. I still can´t wrap my head around to what Europeans are doing no matter which explanation we agree upon. I am at a loss. Please keep your input coming Colin. Cordially Jorge
All thanks to you Jorge! Thinking critically, writing engagingly, is hard work. And trying to make some sense of events in these “interesting times” as Xi would say, is a “labour of love” and I’m with you on this one. We’re here for the same reason. The Saker is a very special place. I’m glad and privileged to be able to contribute something here. Cheers, Colin.
Since the promoted western policy towards fossil energy is genocidal, the simplest explanation is that the western leadership has shifted into a death-cult. And the bottom line is we need to rid ourselves of them before they kill us all. Putin suggested this will eventually happen as a necessary consequence.
This wouldn’t be the first time this sort of thing has happened. This suicidal “green” policy is looking like Jonestown on a much wider scale.
As with Mao or Stalin, they demonstrate by their specific policies a set of cult beliefs which threaten to kill millions of people. Like mass formation psychosis of the elites. But the sheer stupidity of it makes one wonder again and again if they are truly serious or just playing a narrative game to scare the crap out of everybody, Game of chicken? Their confidence suggest either madness or belief in having an ace up their sleeve or both. Probably both.
Mr-Mayhem, I understand your point.
Still, no matter how much I read everyone here, there, everywhere and also his uncle, I still can´t understand 99% of Europeans, unless them are hypnotized by The Devil in person. Honestly, I cannot sort out their strategy, if any.
Your “suicidal green policy” explanation and/or the “mass formation psychosis” of the European elites do not convince me. For example, let´s not talk about leadership elites. Let´s talk about the 95%, they do and accept all this or just cannot see it coming ? Are 95% of Europeans THAT stupid ?
Cordially Jorge
You may have noticed that society in the western world has become extremely polarized. People are made more and more to think that they have to be careful what they say or they could get into some kind of trouble, the chilling of discourse. Intimidation by political correctness to the point of absurdity Is One example.
This is closer to the root of the problem: The population is being gaslit and intimidated into silence as they are collectively bent over. The psychological chilling effect of having strict government passports for daily life, for example, is another way of suggesting subconsciously that “watch what you say or do to attract attention, we have your number.” The resulting dynamic is that the pain temperature has to rise significantly higher before spontaneous demonstrations breakout. That is the aim and result of the psychological warfare.
They’re applying the pressure in order to make moves which will be detrimental to the population, and otherwise result in widespread demonstrations.
In the United States we had the Black Lives Matter burning down towns. In a different context most people are familiar with the firefighters technique of doing a back burn to prevent the main fire from advancing. That’s essentially what BLM did. It’s sucked the energy out of the psyche of the country to effectively replace legitimate demonstrations against the shutting down of society, with NGO and government sponsored demonstrations. It created a degree of spectacle which undermined legitimate political discontent from being able to achieve critical mass.
About the degree of influence upon the population attempted by the establishment-
This is Tucker Carlson today saying essentially what I was trying to say, but much more artfully.
The permitted political discourse has been reduced to a demoralization, gaslighting, and distraction campaign targeting the population.
The strategy also contains a signal marker or dog whistle, whereby if you’re not saying something that’s part of the approved party line, or innovates upon it, you don’t get recognized or amplified, but if you do, you’re quickly recognized and rewarded with additional exposure, A.k.a. the echo chamber.
This became quite apparent in the abuse of social media by their owners and insiders to craft Orwellian narratives, while simultaneously silencing dissent.
The most extreme examples was people losing their jobs by being targeted on grounds of violating political correctness via an online “cancel culture” Lynch mob, related “Doxing” terrorism, and the example of citizens losing deep-career employment for refusing the vaccine. This is classic insider vs outsider bifurcation of Society, and this often has a very deep psychological impact on average people. Just the in-your-face aspect of openly telling us the evil intents, like WEF’s “You will own nothing and be Happy” is Orwellian and chilling.
https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/tucker-carlson-ssris-in-the-water-supply/
@Laertes: “But I have my doubts, the remote contro, the hypnotic and fanatic “awareness” is scaring me in memory of the year before 1939 here in Germany…”
Swedish historian Peter Englund based Nazi German secret intelligence report of public mood in fall of 1939 mentioned that there were actually lots of sadness and apathy among Germans. That’s why we can even suggest that modern Germans, thanks to power of media for skillful public manipulation, are now even more brainwashed that those of 1939. And the same have to say of all other European nations. No wonder why Göbbels admired Hollywood and its film industry as brilliant machine of state propaganda veiled as “entertainment” and “freedom”. This method is largely adopted in Europe using hooks like liberalism, multiculturalism, feminism, LGQT, “free market” etc. The center of all ideology is skillful veiled humanitarian imperialism where the latter is the real goal, preceding just scam.
Dear Mr. Vilchez ,
THX for your very eye-opening article.
In one of your answers to your readers comments you expressed your own concerns that you do not understand the reasons behind all that ( my words ).
I do NOT have the truth – however there are some recent expressions that round the picture to me :
A ) Germany and the EU were also adopting the US FASAB 56 regulations = allowing for black budgets to be legal and non-controllable. That was some years ago. Meaning the whole “western economies” are open systems. Dissapearing money in the trillions – but so far no hyperinflation. WHO got the countervalue ?
B ) Georgia Guidestones : population reduction.
C ) Klaus Schwab : You will own nothing by 2030….
D ) Catherine Austin Fitts : Its not a turndown – it’s a takedown. ( Interview just a couple of days old )
E ) Solari Report NOV 2021 Interview – a PDF is available in the www – between J.P. Farrell und Catherine Austin Fitts on – what I read as a version of “who is in charge ?” – Mr. Global.
Somebody really means – at least as the “west” is concerned their business to get rid of most of the wests population.
“They” said it so often in plain sight – yet few take them seriously.
Admittedly hard to swallow stuff.
Be reminded that even someones dog knows when it gets attacked.
How about our western intellectuals ?
Best
CLJ
Thank you for your kind words, always helpfull to keep me on my toes at this most lonely task I have undertaken always prompted by this Comments Section where I feel at home. Keep your input coming CLJ !!!
Cordially Jorge
Wow, this is great, amazing detailed analysis, shocking ! I really enjoyed this read with breakfast, and find it so densely packed it is my read of the day to keep unpacking, following links and etc. It is all just so cosmically inexplicable, and appears Europe and likely many of us in the US are tied to the tracks and hearing the choo choo train coming around the bend. Though we have to laugh in horror at the promised tomorrow, it is not like it is all very funny. There are some people who will need to pay for orchestrating all of this, with their heads on a platter preferably. The one thing I might comment on from the article was the comment wondering/suggesting that maybe this dead end of civilization is being done intentionally. Yes, that is what I am thinking and surely many others also, watching it develop since 2014 it has all been just too stupid and ignorant at every juncture to not be intentional, if I can see it, then They not only can see it but planned it. So who runs the US Government, the Soros and other funded Think Tanks, who write up their stupid position papers and then almost directly feed them into Bidens or Trumps or whomever, all of them D.C. prostitutes, tele prompters, where and when like good Pinocchio puppets they read their brain dead lines, and dutifully collect their free lunch paychecks. This is the Great Reset NWO Klaus Schwaubb Davos Boys grand plan for god only knows what, being as everything they do and have done the past 50+ years has been or turned into pure dog POOP. Gangster upside down Capitalism enriching their entitled selves, little Lord Flontleroys running around in their tight underwear that has evidently chocked off the blood to their brains, and most certainly drained their souls. We are all in for a tough road ahead. Diesel here in the US in running @ 6 bucks + a gallon in the Midwest, and as Jorge so expertly points out everything runs on Diesel. Europe had better flip over soon and reject this Western B.S., I saw that years ago, their prosperity lies in cordial ties with Russia and flipping the Big Bird to the ugly demented Uncle Pedophelia sometimes known as Sam.
edwardi HUMPHREY
I follow your line of thought.
Still, no matter how much I read everyone here, there, everywhere and also his sister, I still can´t understand Europeans, unless them are hypnotized by The Devil.
Honestly, I cannot sort out their game plan.
I am surely missing something… or maybe not.
Cordially, Jorge
STATEMENT : confession / observation re highly thoughtfull impact & comments – keep them coming !!!
I hereby deeply congratulate you all for I have never ever learned so much so fast from my own commentariati´s comments than from this one article…. I do NOT think I personally had any direct or indirect influence for the above to happen though as I know for a fact that there are lots of many people much smarter than me and far better-informed also. What I am not sure though is about the willingness of these folks to stick their necks out as much as I have.
But I DO think that it could possibly have been “something” or “some-THINGS” — or combination thereof — that I unknowingly touched upon that did trigger so many focused and pertinent comments. I have the hunch it could be my approach to ´political politics´ so to speak, but I am not sure of that either.
So I´d like to find out what really did it. In a nutshell, I´d like to know what (unknowningly) I did right. Your comments true enough do mention specific quotes taken form this article. But I feel that there is something else like a different “mood” and/or a “tone” that was struck that led many readers to comment (1) for the first time and (2) with new deep and pertinent analysis (including some most valid geo-political in nature) I am now learning from and which I shall comment upon later in response to individual comments due to lack of time and space right here and now.
Still, Amarynth and commenters should know I will require lots of more time than usual to reply to so many thoughfull responses and also simply because my in-mail box is also full thus requiring yet additional replies of mine, at least briefly !
Many thanks folks and please do keep it coming, it helps me LOTS !!!!
OMG overwhelmed by oh so many valid comments and input I feel like failing everyone by not responding adequately and promptly. But please understand and accept that — per my own diagnosis already explained in previous article oh how ironic (!) — for me it´s like being very very thirsty and trying to drink from a firehose !!!
I just can´t do it, nobody really can just plain too much, too soon, too valid also. But I can´t and should not leave anyone out. So rest assured I want to and WILL try my best to respond to all of your most valid comments and feedback, but it will take me some time, probably a couple of days !!! And there´s lots going on internationally also, so I do recommend for you to constantly check out “Russia Today” at http://www.rt.com.
Thanks LOTS and I´ll be back momentarily
Great atricle, thanks. To be clear, I am sarcastical from now on. The author is wrong on one thing though. ”Whomever in Europe wishes or needs to move whatever with whichever vehicle or craft from point A to point B anywhere — either very close or very far away — will need diesel-powered engines somewhere along the line, and sometimes all along the long line. This is a fact, not an opinion.”
The EU does not need diesel engines and they know it all. All the way from Brussels to Moskow. There are horses for a reason! Way more green than that diesel and almost as fast. Oh, I am sorry, in Holland they decided that animals are not green either….. Well, as proven with wind and solar energy, they are reliable as well! Just install sails and solar panels on them vehicles and tadaa problem solved. See, you can not fool an EU burocrat! They have the ultimate wisdom to tackle any issue. Ha, got you there.
It will be a green and great economy. Really, unicorns thrive here because of all the green stuff here. I already have three! (I kid you not) unicorn horns in my collection.
Regards,
Hugo
Hugo, my friend, thank you.
Ha you did get me there with many “gotchas” man !
But you forgot to add that horses — and cows and sheep — also belch and fart !!!
Hmmmmm…. I fear you are old man just like me Hugo…
But most respectfull koala bear hug for ya !
PS: do tell us more about your (exclusive ?) unicorn horns in your collection (for real ?)
Aaaahahahahhh
“Europe fails with German help”
Europe in general and Germany in particular are colonies of the Anglo American Empire. Nothing more.
Europe’s “failure” is due to the fact that they have not rebelled against their Anglo American overlords and instead are committing suicide for them.
The question to ask is this:
What is the Anglo American agenda? The real Anglo agenda–not their Goebbelsian propaganda about defending “freedom and democracy against authoritarianism.”
The Anglo American agenda is:
To maintain Anglo American world dominance by preventing Eurasian integration through the fomenting of conflict and war, including economic war.
That means continental Europe must be geopolitically incited to adopt a war footing towards both Russia and China.
If you read NATO’s recently released new Strategic Concept, that is exactly what they are doing.
The Anglo Americans think that they can sit back smug and safe from the wars and conflict that they are stoking throughout Eurasia from Ukraine to the Taiwan straits.
Led by the USA, the Anglo American nations are all essentially island empires, who believe they are relatively insulated from the maelstrom that they are deliberately fomenting.
The Anglo Americans will have no problem watching the Global South plunge into famine or Eurasia embroiled in conflict–as they will benefit from these atrocities.
Never underestimate the cunning and deceit of Perfidious Albion or its preeminent spawn, Perfidious America.
America’s real adversaries are its European and other allies: The U.S. aim is to keep them from trading with China and Russia
/americas-real-adversaries-are-its-european-and-other-allies-the-u-s-aim-is-to-keep-them-from-trading-with-china-and-russia/
The Sarmat can hit any empire island. If WW3 breaks out the US isn’t getting out of the destruction this time like they did in WW2.
I believe the name written on the first Sarmat to hit the west should be KARMA.
xvfsb,
I read you, we are on the same page, and I can follow your line of thought.
Still, no matter how much I read everyone here, there, everywhere and also his sister, I still can´t understand Europeans, unless them are hypnotized by The Devil.
Honestly, I cannot sort out their game plan.
If you and I know all this, would you think Europe´s top politicians don´t ?
Of course they do, so I cannot figure out their position. No way.
I am surely missing something… or maybe not.
Cordially, Jorge
They are on the take.
@Jorge,
14 points missed the real diesel Big Bang – DIESELGATE.
This made such a headache for Auto AG, that vast improvements in combustion, catalysers and Diesel Blu, actually makes the exhaust gasses cleaner than the intake on various road choke points!
So the problem is not the Engineers – it is the firm lawyers who played along to get along to Diesel Hell.
And to believe that US Diesel Emission Test was purely serendipitous, around the time Chancellor Merkel declared “Alles Neuland” when her mobile was compromised is sophomoric. Ed Snowden did prove the NSA does do industrial espionage.
To target Germany for destruction, means targeting Auto AG.
Maybe the just-in massive disaster for Biden’s Clean Air program – SCOTUS just dumped it, just might give these lawyers some spine! SCOTUS just may have torpedoed the Green obsession.
Now that German coal fired plants are about to restart (if they find labor and equipment…) next could be the ridiculous auto emissions laws.
Is it possible to retrofit or disable auto diesel add-blu units?
bonbon
Please keep us updated on both fronts regarding (possible) restart of German coal-fired plants and possible retrofit or modification of add-blu DEF units. Like you say bonbon, re-starting coal-fired plants will not be easy, let alone automatic. And rewinding auto-emissions laws is a clear Green defeat, yet again. These people do not think by any stretch of the term. Do they still have brains though ? Cordially Jorge
RE: famine(ssssss)
Very angry and hungry, no-nonsense Dutch farmers blocked the border with Germany and elsewhere. Holland is the world´s 5th largest exporter of food and Dutch farmers are demanding that the Hague immediately reverse course 180 degrees.
Even larger protests are scheduled for July 4, with organizers taking to Telegram to call people to action against rules they say will “flatten” the country’s agriculture industry. The farmers, who plan to protest at many of the nation’s airports, specifically mentioned Schiphol and Eindhoven. The Minister of Nature and Nitrogen Policy expects about a third of the 50,000 Dutch farms to ‘disappear’ by 2030. …” There is a real risk that multiple famines will be declared in 2022 and 2023 could be even worse.” So Green for thee but nor for me.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/dutch-farmers-livid-over-eus-green-nitrogen-rule-block-border-between-holland-and
The Netherlands has been planning to halt Groningen gas production by 2022 due to earthquakes. This field was the largest onshore natural gas field in Europe.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-gas-idUSKCN1VV1KE
Now that this cheap natural gas heat closes down the government is betting on “clean energy alternatives”
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20211025-netherlands-the-end-of-europes-largest-gas-field
Such energy substitutions are expensive and fail in many instances to meet the energy and chemical industry needs. For instance, the massive number of Dutch greenhouses have in many cases “gone dark” due this last Winter due to the high cost of natural gas to heat them, thus reducing food production. This will only get much worse this coming Winter.
https://www.naturalblaze.com/2021/10/dutch-greenhouses-go-dark-as-energy-crisis-worsens-food-inflation-fears-mount-for-europe.html
Krollchem, perfect, just keep it coming. Precise, factual data, that´s what we need. We count on you Krollchem !
Respectfull yet warm koala bear hug for you Krollchem !!
Great stuff as usual — really thorough and muy sensible! I’m told that the thoughtless Euros are quietly purchasing Russian crude that has been discounted and exported to India and/or China who then mark it up and re-sell back into Europe. I’ve heard other “tales” about re-naming and re-certifying ships/insurance cos, etc. to get around the sanctions to acquire Russian crude as well. Though this might temporarily put off dealing with the refinery problems (which the Euros only seem vaguely aware of), as you point out, neither of these methods can necessarily be “counted on” to fulfill steady needs. It seems pretty obvious that if the Euros don’t lift the sanctions, they’re committing economic suicide. When it becomes clear to the U.S. and Europe that Ukraine has lost the war, perhaps an “off-ramp” (a neutral whatever is left of Ukraine and agreed upon de-escalation of tensions in Europe?) can be created to justify lifting the sanctions, saving the Euros bacon. But Uncle Sam has now corralled the Euros, “stiffened” NATO (supposedly), and is salivating at selling both LNG and new “bright and shiny” weapon systems to an even more subjugated Europe. I don’t think anything good — short of collapse in the U.S. — is going to come out of this, alas.
Thanks DickyGee for your favorable input which I do need although not for my ego — not a this very late stage of my personal game at least — but just to keep me going in this most lonely task I have undertaken on my own for no benefit at all whatsoever, just regular headaches, trust me. And yes, I also true the triangulation re-sale games you adequately describe etc etc etc… although come December 2022 it´s just impossible to fathom the stupid excuse the EU politicians will come up with to explain the Russian oil ban they cannot possibly comply with. The reason being that, for example, diesel oil cannot be printed !!!
Regarding LNG, this Western new gimmick is barely starting. Please check out
https://www.rt.com/business/558205-sakhalin-project-russia-west/
Thanks again DickyGee !!!
Russian food for Russian rubles, of course.
Why US dollars ? You plain rob them anyways, so you propose me giving you my Russian food for nothing ?
Charity, is that what you want ? Say so then…
Paying Russian food YOU want for US dollars — or euros for that matter — I don´t need, care to have, or find a use for… is only your strict nonsense, not mine.
https://www.rt.com/business/558232-russia-switches-grain-exports-rubles/
Another wonderful piece. Thank you! I begin to suspect that the mandarins of Europe are slow walking the energy change over to ensure that nothing really gets done, anticipating that people like Habeck will be long gone and the cheese-eating, schnapps-swilling, pasta-gorging surrender monkeys will come out of their jungles and force Europe’s ignoramus governing classes to accept Russia’s terms. For it all stops the minute the Europeans agree to provide Russia with the security guarantees it demanded in December.
Many thanks Midge and keep your input coming !
Cordially Jorge
India & Russia happily “married” on the oil & food export / business.
Putin and Modi held warm phone convo minutes ago.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/putin-modi-hold-warm-phone-call-india-gorges-cheap-russian-oil
” (13) crashed German nat-gas giant Uniper now ready for bail-out and Lehman moment ”
point in the first paragraph of article
The financial cascade + Lehman moment effect is the real problem for Germany now. Let´s see what Herr Habeck has to say
” German energy giant seeks government bailout – Reuters
Uniper took a financial hit due to reduced gas supplies from Russia”
“… possible guarantees, raising credit facilities, or even the state taking an equity stake…”
https://www.rt.com/business/558213-german-energy-giant-government-bailout/
“The dependence of the German economy on Russian gas is underestimated,” Prognos AG spokesman Michael Behmer said, as quoted by the Bild.”
https://www.rt.com/business/558054-germany-russian-gas-cut-costs/
Amarynth announced that both NS1 + NS2 would be cutt off in July with an ever increasing “pain dial” on Europe.
Somebody wants the pain dial, turned to maximum for our world, while they continue to burn down US food processing plants.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/biden-admin-halts-2nd-largest-us-lng-plant-restarting-operations-after-blast
The only consolation is that we will soon see their operations, in broad daylight. Crisis, brings opportunity!
Some details now published at
https://www.rt.com/business/558203-nord-stream-to-halt-gas-eu/
” Russia to suspend ALL gas supplies to the EU for 10 consecutive days ”
Pain dial goes UP
Meanwhile, the “simpletons” the German politicians want to coerce and “sacrifice” to fight for the “Liberal New Order” seem to have a mind of their own…
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/markets/there-s-a-massive-pile-up-of-car-furniture-exports-bound-for-u-s-and-it-s-spreading-across-european-ports/ar-AAZ52g9?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=548be3dc69d9470f8e850f4f807e2dde
A starting point on marine fuel shortages that fit into the overall energy deficit picture for the EU
It was reported as of February 2022, that there was “tight availability of bunker fuel, especially of 0.5% sulfur fuel in key ports”
https://www.bunkerworld.com/news/insight/163972/Staff/BUNKERWORLD-INDEX-Supply-limits-support-bunker-prices-amid-wobble-in-crude-markets
Subsequently, sanctions on Russian bunker fuel has further tightened the availability for marine shipping:
https://www.shippingherald.com/european-bunker-markets-feel-the-heat-of-russian-sanctions/
Marine fuel prices have since reached new records of over $1,000/tonne and higher for the very-low sulfur fuel
https://en.usm.media/bunker-fuel-prices-peaked-due-to-war-in-ukraine/
Marine fuel products, such as bunker C must meet acceptable ISO 8217 characteristics:
https://www.exxonmobil.com/marine/-/media/files/global/us/marine/news-and-resources/iso-8217-2010-fuel-characteristics-tech-topic-a4-x1a.pdf
For example , Bunker fuel for ships must meet the following parameters:
https://www2.mst.dk/udgiv/publications/1998/87-7909-173-3/html/kap06_eng.htm
Krollchem, EXCELLENT precise, factual input. Please keep it coming on anything related to this topic. You know damn well about it, so please educate us all be it marine fuel shortages, bunker fuels, etc. etc. Of course, obviously that no marine fuels, no crude oil or distillates delivery. Repeat, excellent Krollchem !
Technically a very good analysis except that you missed the most important point: 30 to 40 % of the EU population in Western Europe(eastern europe nobody cares about in Paris, Brussels or Berlin..), will NOT be impacted. They are the one (mainly old people, csp+ rich or very wealhty) they vote for Macron, SPD GREENS etc…they pretty don’t care about middle and lower middle classes and of courses popular classes, poors, unemployed, very poor elderly etc..who will be the ONLY impacted. If you are a couple with a good executive salary, between 2 x 4.000 up to 6/7/8.000 euros(total let’s say netto 5 or 6.000 eur x 14 months) + multiples advantages(company car gas card included, pension, hospital insurance etc..) you don’t care about inflation of let’s say between 7 and 10 % for a while(one, two years?).In some countries like BELUX the salaries are automaticaly increased with the inflation level(indexed).Governments decreased vat from 21 to 6 %. Some are sending cash check between 100 up to 3.000 euros, social energy tariffs has been allocated to 25-30% of the population, taxes decreased. Macron blocked the energy price ‘bouclier énergie’, decreased oil taxes (18 cents/ litre, total energies just gave 12 cents additionnal discount).It is still manageable. We did not see brent at crazy levels like once said of 150/200/250 eur. It ranges from 95 to 125 (which is high) but not a disaster.
Poor people will NOT revolt, I mean in Europe, yellow vests in France tried during 2 years when their situation was still much better than now, Macron destroyed them with maximum lethal violence( check google images gilets jaunes blessés injured), even three were killed and 1.000 sent in jail simply to protest. Believe me now they are so scared they will not try again…and France loves revolutions, other countries don’t even think about it.
It is sad but this is a class war, and like Warren buffet said my class is winning.
Nothing will happen
war is on,
Okay, let´s assume that NOBODY revolts. I do not agree, but for the sake of argument let´s accept it for a couple of minutes. OKay, so NO revolts, everything is peacefull… and also DEAD. Because what I don´t seem to be making clear is that money $$$$$ a yen a buck or a pound like the Cabaret musical goes will NOT buy you what´s not available, such as energy. If Russia cuts off nat-gas — which they already have and will continue to do thus rising the pain dial — that means simply LNG and wood if ever available and with supply quite short of demand no ? So I don´t care about nominal BELUX (sic) salaries etc etc. it´d just be colorfull paper with dead musicians portraits…
No oil, no diesel, no nothing, just DIESELGATE war is on… I hope I made myself clear´er´ this time around… BTW, you say “nobdy cares about Eastern Europe ?” Hmmm… like nobody cares about 100 million neighboring people migrating to Western Europe ? Hmmm… I am not sure we are both on the same page as WAR IS ON war is on…
Cordially Jorge
«30 to 40 % of the EU population in Western Europe(eastern europe nobody cares about in Paris, Brussels or Berlin..), will NOT be impacted.»
For that 30-40% in many countries the key is booming house prices, e.g. USA, UK, etc.; these are some key numbers from the UK:
– 14%: house price increases.
– 9%: official consumer price increases.
– 4%: mortgage rates.
– 2%: wage increases.
For property owners, especially those buying real estate on credit, it is simply fantastic: borrow at real interest rate of -5% to buy assets with prices rising at a real rate of +5%, and at the same time the real cost of cleaners, gardeners, baristas, shop assistants, nurses, carers, is falling in real terms.
«even three were killed and 1.000 sent in jail simply to protest. Believe me now they are so scared they will not try again…and France loves revolutions, other countries don’t even think about it.»
As to this I have a delightful quote:
https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=jJj0NgA08SUC&pg=PA244&lpg=PA244
George Orwell, “Review of The Civilization of France by Ernst Robert Curtius” (1932):
“In England, a century of strong government has developed what O. Henry called the stern and rugged fear of the police to a point where any public protest seems an indecency.
But in France everyone can remember a certain amount of civil disturbance, and even the workmen in the bistros talk of la revolution – meaning the next revolution, not the last one.
The highly socialised modern mind, which makes a kind of composite god out of the rich, the government, the police and the larger newspapers, has not been developed – at least not yet.”
That “composite god” in practice today is the neoliberal “Washington Consensus” and their enforcement tools.
Even a well enjoyed lobotomy could not induce the levels of stupidity being displayed by the West. I lean to Michael Hudson’s belief they now own well stacked off shore bank accounts for services rendered. All that remains is to see why and at whose behest are they destroying their countries, the end game to me remains elusive.
Yes but not stupidity. Only deception as your enemy would do.
Yes not only accounts, but places indeed.
Not in the pitchforks’ way.
All hierarchies at their fingers.
The simplest explanation the better.
It’s malignity.
Organized Group[s]. I recall late Stanley Kubrics’ Eyes Wide Shut, etc etc.
It’s a Spiritual battle.
@organic
All wars are capitalist financial bankers wars, and that includes the Rothschild owned central banks, so that they can loot Russia.
Biden is under instructions to do everything possible to weaken Russia and replace Putin with someone who will allow privatization of Russian state assets.
Once that is accomplished the US will go after China with the aim of subjecting them to debt slavery.
«so that they can loot Russia»
That is important, but even under Putin western businesses had many lucrative activities in “Russia”, and Putin was useful as a scarecrow.
There has been a dramatic change in the attitude to “Russia” is not merely about looting, it is about China and “domino theory”. The USA first grabbed Poland and Romania etc. as domino pieces, then Ukraine was the next domino piece, and the next domino piece is “Russia” itself, to get a ring-of-fire or CIA/DOD biolabs and bases on the northern and western chinese borders from which to fund, train and arm a large number of “freedom fighter” groups inside the China-mainland. That’s the prize, not “Russia”.
I reckon that there is a good chance that if Putin offered the USA “deep state” permission to build 10-20 bases on the chinese borders, the next day the USA media would denounce _elensky as a nazi collaborator and the tyrant responsible for all the atrocities of the ukrainian war of aggression against the Donbas, and Putin as a great champion of democracy and supporter of the “rule based liberal order”. “We have always been at war with Eastasia”. :-)
I don’t understand why China is the ultimate prize, and not Russia.
True, China has a huge economy. But it is Russia that has the natural resources the West covets, plus the wide-open spaces, but plenty of water.
So, why isn’t Russia itself the ultimate prize?
Why isn’t the USA trying to prise China away from Russia, not the opposite?
«I don’t understand why China is the ultimate prize, and not Russia.»
It is the difference between being a prize and a threat. Russia (or more precisely the ability to put a chain of bases on China’s borders) is the prize, China is the threat.
«But it is Russia that has the natural resources the West covets, plus the wide-open spaces, but plenty of water.»
So do south America and Africa too, but they are no threat to USA rule of the world. China has the size, technology, organization, logistics, money, population to be a threat. The only other present threats that the USA strategists fear are a combination of Germany with other large european countries (thus intervention in WW2) or a combination of Germany and Russia. Therefore the USA strategists want to prevent either.
In several decades India could be the next threat, and perhaps one day even Brazil.
The big question: can the West enable Ukraine to survive its bitter conflict with Russia? A major statistically and analytically supported report from Britain’s Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), one of the oldest military think tanks in the UK, emphatically said, not in anyone’s wildest dreams. The U.S. can no longer be the “Arsenal of Democracy” which it brazenly purports to be. Its manufacturing capacity has moved to China; it has drastically decreased its own domestic ammunition and missile production rates; and it cannot restore this capacity without a major reprioritization of American interests and culture. Even if the will to do so were available, it would be unable to save Ukraine in the time available to keep it from collapse. Put simply, the United States is unable to re-arm Ukraine.
The only possibility remaining for America is to create a false flag incident and blame it on Russia as an excuse to enter the war. Or to attempt to devise some provocation which will lure Russia into an action which can be interpreted as a casus belli. Such an attempt was the recent U.S. machination by which it got Lithuania to block Russia’s access to its separated province of Kaliningrad (Калининград, pre-1946 Königsberg), on the Baltic. But Putin did not take the bait, since the province can still be provisioned by sea from Saint Petersburg. So unless the Washington warmongers succeed in something which will provide a pretext for using American nukes against Russia, the declining Empire of fraud and deceit will lose.
Bye, bye, American pie.
«The big question: can the West enable Ukraine to survive its bitter conflict with Russia?»
Ukraine is doomed:
* It was a failed state before their war of aggression against the Donbas, one of the two with a worse economy than in soviet times, a failed state like the baltic operetta republics.
* The population of Ukraine has been collapsing even faster than that of most other european countries, I think even more so than the baltic operetta republics (in some of which something like 25% of adults emigrated after the 2008 financial bubble collapse).
* Even worse, several million young ukrainian women and children have emigrated in the past several months to much richer EU countries and will not come back, and the ukrainian government has forbidden the emigration of men to send them into the war grinder.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/ukraine-population
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/lithuania-population
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/latvia-population
BRILLIANT.
Another educational moment.
Reinforcing the “German Sausage,” theory. So the Ukrainians are smarter than the Germans. Who would’ve thought. I was about to build a boat with two diesel outboard motors, (Imported from Norway.) Will put it on hold until the Russian Victory is declared and Putin has finished, dancing bear on Red Square.
Let’s be honest, the Russians has been slowly drawing teeth for sometime, with no sign of ending the procedure. Germany will have to facilitate the return of the sanctioned/stolen, $billions before a drop of diesel is delivered to Europe.
We live in hysterical times!
Aaron, as always, thanks again for favorable comment and specific input. Cordially Jorge
As a German, I agree with this analyse; by the way, Habeck and Baerbock are the most popular politicians in Germoney. Its insane. But it reflects the power of media and decades of reeducation.
This country will be absolutly disrupted, oeconomly and social.
And it will be interessting to see, how the well known “Einmänner” aka “Partyszene” will react on the shortages (people from 2015). I expect some kind of hot Beirut feeling. Feeded by the weapons, the West delivers to UA.
“Chronicle of a Death Foretold”
Any idea to emigrate?
Frank D. thanks for your very pertinent comments re Germans and current Germany. With the perception of chaos, massive migrations — whether justified or not — are an important possibility disrupting absolutely everything
Please keep your valid comments coming !
Cordially Jorge
Sorry, that is just wrong and ahistorical. The German defeat at the gates of Moscow in late 1941 was the real turning point of the Second World War in Europe, and it happened before the USA was even a formal belligerent, let alone a supplier of aid to the USSR. The Soviets certainly had severe losses in the summer and autumn of 1941, but they had the great advantage of being able to trade space for time while they prepared their counterattack.
Lease-lend aid to Russia certainly made a difference in the latter part of the war: not in weapons, but in the mobility which Studebaker trucks and jeeps gave to the Red Army in its long march to Berlin. For that, the Russian infantry remains eternally grateful.
Bernard Davis, thanks for contributing historical data. Still, I would not think histoirians would agree that Moscow-1941 was “the real turning point” of WW2 as you say. If it were, why did the war last so much longe ? The surrender of von Paulus at Stalingrad plus the defeat of Erwin Rommel in El Alamein (both in very late 1942) made Germany retreat along all fronts in 1943, not before. Still, many thanks Bernard and keep making comments please. Cordially Jorge
«Moscow-1941 was “the real turning point” of WW2 as you say.»
Moscow 1941 was just a stall. The USSR military and economic situation was hopeless: they had plenty of untrained men to throw into the grinder, but no logistics.
The real turning point was not military, it was the passage of Lend-Lease, which meant that the USA was the logistical backstop for UK and USSR, or even more so Pearl Harbour, when the USA started raising huge armies. Churchill’s doctor reported that on the news of the Germany declaring war on the USA he stopped being depressed and became very much happier.
«If it were, why did the war last so much longe ?»
Because the USSR and UK were defeated but did not want to surrender, and it took some time for USA logistics to restore their ability to fight, and then for a while the USA government was happy to watch for german nazis and russian commies to massacre each other. Once they got into the action they ended the war fairly quickly.
Congratulations everyone !
Congrats editors Andrei & Amarynth !!
Congrats commenters herein !!!
This article has been RE-published yet again by The Automatic Earth & The Debt Rattle at https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2022/07/debt-rattle-july-2-2022/
‘Great Ideas’
aka German green ideas.
How to get from an idea to reality, well you need to apply the This Means That Process, completely unkown to EU policy makers it seems.
The late Roger Andrews could do this, translating the detail to the horrible reality.
Over at MoA, we have great summary posted by c1ue | Jul 1 2022 14:26 utc | 106 moonofalabama.org/2022/06/open-not-ukraine-thread-2022-98
Andrews estimated, as a indication at least, that German green policy requires the following;
On the supply side, almost 300 GW of variable renewable generators are installed: 92 GW solar PV, 94 GW onshore wind, and 98 GW offshore wind . . . . For solar PV and onshore wind power, this is nearly twice as much as the installed capacity in 2020; for offshore wind power, this means more than a tenfold increase.
For comparison, Germany’s current peak demand is in the range of 100 GW, and average demand is in the range of 60 GW.
Then there will be some 56 TWh of storage, equivalent as discussed to about 24 days of full electricity consumption for the entire country of Germany at near-peak usage levels.
To get a handle on how much that is, consider that a Tesla battery is in the range of about 100 KWh, and sells for about $13,500, or $135/KWh. So, if you were trying to cover the 56 TWh of storage with Tesla-type batteries, it would run you around 56,000,000,000 x $135, or about $7.56 trillion — which is about double the GDP of Germany.
Here are couple of comments comments on Andrew’s article;
An outstanding synopsis of the lunacy with which we are being confronted.
Is there an influential windbag in *any* government in the western world who is sufficiently numerate to grasp this? It seems not! Or maybe they’re all on the gravy train.
democratic governments appear to be dominated by people with law degrees. They go into law because they are not very good at math and science,
http://euanmearns.com/the-cost-of-wind-solar-power-batteries-included/
* USD $ 400 / barrel of oil is in the cards per JPMorgan
* pain dial UP
* Russia winning attrition war + financial / economics warfare
Global oil prices could reach a “stratospheric” $380 per barrel if Western penalties prompt Russia to impose retaliatory output cuts, according to JPMorgan Chase analysts.
“The most obvious and likely risk with a price cap is that Russia might chose not to participate and instead retaliate by reducing exports,” the analysts wrote in a note seen by Bloomberg.
“It is likely that the government could retaliate by cutting output as a way to inflict pain on the West. The tightness of the global oil market is on Russia’s side.”
https://www.rt.com/business/558256-jp-morgan-alarm-oil-prices/
Hey maybe we could just pee( urea) in a bottle of rain water and shake it up (de- ionized ) !
Huh, whadda ya think ? That would solve the DEF problem….
The level of negative intelligence of our leaders is so overwhelming…
I guess their plan is that we all throw away our diesel cars, trucks, boats etc, and go electric.
They must know what they’re doing , no ?
A few interesting and shocking posts up this morning from Armstrong worth a read especially the one on Syria.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/energy/macron-tells-biden-to-rethink-energy-plans/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/energy/the-untold-war-in-syria-and-deserted-pipelines/
So many interesting possibilities. Is the US giving Germany a spanking for daring to insist on repatriating their gold over the last decade or so, when the US had so obviously already used it for other purposes?
Are evil cabals given a certain finite number of dirty tricks they will suffer no consequences from and they have long since run out of their quota? Certainly punishing Russia for doing what NATO deliberately set out to force them to do is dirty. Or am I missing some key point?
The notion that they would not defend themselves from the same families of Nazis that took a really serious toll on them in the past, is not the bet most experts would make.
Finally can’t we utterly dismiss a movement that embraces the most environmentally destructive behavior, war? It’s promoters have hijacked the green movement in a very similar way to how Zionists bat us about with the anti-Semitic label. How did the must un-green wind up in charge of determining greenness? Never mind being the gate keepers to the profits available from exploiting tree hugger ness.
Anti-Semitism is the ultimate crime, but anti-humanism is just hunky dory? Really leave all those non-Zionists alone already! Oh dang keep forgetting my subservient lessons.
Besides diesel fuel, diesel DEF and diesel lube oil … of course that all sorts of lubrication oils matter lots. Lube oils provide much-needed lubrication to all sorts of industrial machinery.
Please check out https://www.machinerylubrication.com/Read/28960/mineral-oil-refining
Dear Jorge, thank you for another excellent post. I am not a technically oriented person when it comes to understanding oil, but you make the subject fascinating and understandable. I perhaps think the europeans are in a state of denial about what’s ahead for their economies, or perhaps there will be a 180 degree turnaround at the last minute and Russian oil will be flowing again.
The Poles have been told to go into the forests to gather wood to heat their homes! When I read this I thought it sounded like feudal times. So unbelievable! As the next few months go by and we get closer to winter maybe people will wake up and realize what’s coming. That’s when social unrest will start.
Also congratulations on your post being republished at the Automatic Earth. You deserve to be read far and wide! Kind regards and I look forward to your next post.
Dear Catherine,
Thank you for your kind words and feedback. And your support Catherine is essential as you have probably noticed. I can only assure everybody that I do try hard from this one-man band with a shoestring budget (my small government pension). I will try to post yet again next week, possibly from a different perspective if it convinces me enough. For the time being please allow me to re-post for you a most pertinent comment from Amarynth, the editor of this article. Best for you Catherine !!
Dear Amarynth… you said: “… It is almost non-intuitive for someone that does not know this industry. You build refineries and industry and the complete delivery to the end user on the basis of the available feedstocks, and not the other way around. It’s not that you build the major infrastructure A to Z and then go and look for the feedstocks. So, the infrastructure is a custom solution built for the inputs available…” Amen.
Oils are all different and not exactly fungible. Refineries are fine-tuned for each specific oil blend if ever available in large enough quantities and constant quality and adequate delivery terms (!!) from reliable vendors…. Seaborne batch delivery complicates things even further and beyond, let alone inter-port supplies and dock to refinery pipelines to be revamped and upgraded such as the all-important Schwedt case. Different people, different vendors and different means and different products get involved (tankers, ports, docks, sea lanes, FAR longer distances and dis-continuities risks, etc. etc., etc.) Russian Urals blend had none of that and was already up and running smoothly in European refineries for decades yonder with everybody used to it and perfectly happy. Not anymore, or so it seems…
Regarding military equipment fuels of all sorts the problem is not only (1) availability but also (2) adequate and timely distribution in very broad, scattered cosumer points in very distant areas and (3) “social” theft from regular folks that lacking fuels for their own life-sustaining purposes might / would decide to prey upon their own military fuel in the understanding that surviving is far more important than fighting… for no reason I should add. I have personally witnessed the above-mentioned “social” theft in times of scarcity without any war going on. So imagine what it would be like…
The impact that fuel-failure would have is enormous. Social chaos, migrations, and sudden (conventional) military defeat are three instantaneous outcomes. In a matter of days (if not hours…) non-functional contagion would spread like wildfire. Now then, how could “fuel-failure” occur ? For one, even if everything is done correcty and ´by-the-book´ the switchover process from Urals blend to whatever is found out there ( I still have very serious doubts) is very SLOW and also very risky anyway it´s diced or sliced. Refinery people know this, and many times the damage done during trials is irreversible most specially under current supply crises all around. Partial explosions here and there are not a total surprise, they happen. Human resources are a weak link not only because of lack of knowledgeability & expertise — as this has never ever been done before, zero experience, not even thought of as a possibility — but also because today the younger ones want no part of any project of this nature. Millennials and Zoomers are not anywhere like long gone old-timers. And the instant the first refinery reconversion attempt fails, Herr Habeck will have to run for the hills and hide in a very deep cave.
Then you have the inter-EU country conflicts. Assume that for anyone reason, say, France is able to either successfully reconvert an important number of its refineries and/or find a suitable (yet limited) crude-oil supplier that no other EU country has. So they would have all launched themselves to the “ban the Russian oil” bandwagon but only France (in this example) would have a reasonable outcome. They never had such differences before, did they ? Intra-EU fuel gangsterism could blossom everywhere with yet more massive migrations…
And it goes on and on. The quality of the fuels possible obtained — if ever — would vary. Today Europe does not have such problem. As other regular ´take for granted´ supplies would simultaneously be missing or scarce (food, minerals, medicines, etc.) social chaos would fluorish.
I´ll probably think of additional comments, but I shouldn´t make this any more “longuish” . Above all my congratulations to you for such an excellent summary of the situation in 1 (one) single short paragraph Amarynth.
Cordially Jorge
Have a look on the wrongmakers championship – it’s hard, to live in Germany
The head of the German Ministry of Economy, Robert Habek, underestimated the degree of Germany’s dependence on Russian oil, writes Welt.
At the end of April, the minister stated that supplies from Russia account for 12% of the oil consumed in Germany, whereas in May the real share of supplies from the Russian Federation was 27.8%, the publication indicates.
Subscribe to @Sputnik
Hi JJ, could you please — or anyone else reading this for that matter — share with us a link for the above ?
I tried to find it in Sputnik News to no avail.
I had the same un-official information although actually a bit higher percentage closer to 35% if Indian-refined petroleum products are added + other ´triangulated´ crude-oil out there in the high seas.
Thank you JJ !
Thank you guys !!
Cordially Jorge
I FOUND IT !!!
Check out how ignorant fool Herr Habeck is at https://www.rt.com/business/558262-germany-downplays-reliance-russian-oil/
Cordially Jorge
Habek’s MOST UNFORTUNATE statement was “apparently more of a spontaneous estimate,” Jens Spahn, deputy head of the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU) faction, was quoted as saying by the paper.
“spontaneous estimate ” ?
We here a one-man band running on a shoestring government pension budget know more than HIM ??
Mind you Herr Habeck is the German Minister of the Economy okay ???
He has hundreds of experts working for him, literally many billions of Euros budget
Whatever policy Herr Habeck establishes the EU follows behind in lockstep !!!!
Habeck is the leader of the hemmlings…
“The oil-importing companies had signalled at the time that they could escape contracts with Russia – so that in the event of an immediate embargo or a supply stop by Russia would have had the opportunity to obtain oil from other countries,” the Economy Ministry said, commenting on the issue.
YEAH, sure enough, you may possibly find “some” really expensive crude oil out there on a discontinuous basis but not the right grade as the Urals blends delivered who knows how where and when ( hint to France: NOT Venezuelan oil NOT Iranian oil) that European refineries would NOT be able to refine unless laboriously and slowly modified all at the same time with the same December deadline with no guarantees whatsoever that such sourcing would not run out in a matter of weeks if not days !!! I insist, you can´t make this stuff up.
And if by magic I were appointed by the Bundestag and the Greens to replace Herr Habeck (God forbid) I would resign way before accepting. The problem has no solution. This is guiltfull-ignorance at its best
Cordially Jorge
I responded to a comment posted above at 5:36 pm EST/EDT by Haymer Doots,
“Percentages of Russian crude oil and distillates imported by the EU are a moving rollercoaster target, first affected by European 2018-2020 increased consumption, later by Covid and supply-chain disruption drops, then by post-Covid recovery increases, lately by Ukraine war impact…
Still, we differ in that today the EU official sources import figures from Russia would rather be — [ higher than what Herr Habeck has stated to Sputnik News per JJ´s post above ]
(1) 30-35% for crude oil if considering “triangulation” re-sale of what still is and will always continue to be Russian oil (2) 20-25% for distillates etc etc
intermediate manufacturers
Drug intermediates are the drugs used as raw materials for the production of bulk drugs, or they can refer to a material produced during synthesis of an API that must undergo further molecular change or processing before it becomes an API
Seems the elites are pushing Europe into a no choice war with Russia. They desperately want the world’s population at 55 billion people of their own choosing.