By Amarynth for the Saker Blog
Taiwan. In this article, Taiwan crossing the Red Line when the leader of the Taiwan region, Tsai Ing-wen, admitted to the presence of US military trainers on the island for the first time, was discussed. This was an open secret but the admission in public made it necessary for China to respond. Now it is clear what form the response is taking. At the time, all the media in English called for ‘punishment’. There is always the option of kinetic action but China considers Taiwan as Chinese (despite the civil war) and the leadership really does not want to act kinetically against what they consider fellow Chinese. Soon we saw the words, Taiwan Separatists, appearing in the Chinese media. The reunification groups in Taiwan are becoming visible and reunification is presented as a fait accompli.
Here comes the ‘punishment’ but first the ‘accusation’.
China is accusing the Taiwan separatists of crimes against the peace:
- inciting cross-Straits confrontation,
- maliciously attacking and slandering the mainland and colluding with foreign forces to split the country.
- undermining cross-Straits relations, peace, and stability in the Taiwan Straits, and therefore the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation.
This is the punishment
- The separatists have been placed on a blacklist and circulating in Chinese social media, the words ‘dead or alive’ are used.
- They and their families are banned from entering the mainland and the Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions.
- Organizations related to them are restricted from cooperating with organizations and individuals on the mainland, and enterprises related to them and their financial backers are not allowed to make profits on the mainland.
- The mainland will pursue criminal responsibility for the separatists in accordance with the law, and they will be held accountable for life.
In other words, they are being treated as traitors to their nation and their state and the peace, and there is no place to hide.
While there is no date for reunification yet, the laws governing such a reunification are being drawn up. The expectation is that the hot public opinion war between the reunificationists, separatists, and mainlanders will continue for a while yet. We can be thankful that it is a public opinion war and for now the probability of kinetic action between China and Taiwan is low. The western forces (US, NATO, European Union, etc.) are the dark horse in this configuration. We don’t know what to expect from a stated policy of strategic ambiguity, but which is openly hostile, running regime change operations, and stationing soldiers as trainers in what is China’s province. Washington is expected to continue making noise and petty moves until they understand that reunification is not a choice, but a firm given.
The Chinese perspective on this:
US used to deter China by conducting military exercise around China, and the strategy recently changed to make its generals, political leaders and media contantly talking tough about Taiwan.
Why? Run out of budget? I know It is cheaper to conduct lip exercise.
— Dai Weiwei (@WEIWEIDAI4) November 8, 2021
[Sidebar] While we are discussing paradigm collapse themes in general in our world, the issue around Taiwan is considered internally as a guide or a measure of the current collapse of the paradigm of a single hegemonic world, into a multipolar world. This is their yardstick and their measure. In other words, it is a sign of the times.
The RCEP has now been ratified. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade agreement will take effect at the start of January. This is the largest trade agreement in all of the world and in all of history. Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea have signed and ratified the RCEP agreement. (This is the agreement where India was part of the group and then would not sign and stomped off).
Yes, you are right to sit up and take notice. Both Australia and Japan are in the lineup. What do we make of that? Australia is most probably figuring out where their food comes from and this is the first trade agreement where Japan is involved with both China and South Korea.
RCEP is huge. It groups the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) plus Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea.
In the past few weeks, we had the twin spectacles of the G20 meeting and COP26 with the two most imminent leaders in our world not only not attending, but giving short shrift to the messaging in general, both leaders making simple statements that they will do what they will do generally but will fulfill agreements that they made.
[Sidebar] Again we can link this to a paradigm collapse theme in general where the disintegrating late-Washington world order attempts to implement political technology projects, doomed to fail, for people with no critical thinking.
And just days after COP26, China took the lead again by launching a new sophisticated Earth-science satellite. They have about 30 similar but less sophisticated measuring systems in orbit, but this one is dedicated to the UN 2030 Agenda, of course, to meet and fulfill agreements made with a factual presentation of actual data. What becomes clear is that the cheaters and self-worshipping big hot air statement makers from COP26 cannot hide their own actions any longer. (You can run but you can’t hide). If there are agreements to be made, China will measure the data and do the count.
Developed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the satellite will carry out precision analysis of energy consumption, habitat patterns, and coastal areas in the vicinity of human populations, and provide data for sustainable development indicators. This launch is the 395th flight of the Long March rocket series, developed by the Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology.
A few data points gleaned from the Here Comes China Newsletter from Godfree Roberts (link at the end).
Governance: President Xi proposed a ten-year education plan for SCO members, four of which are Central Asian nations: 30,000 government scholarships to study in China, plus 10,000 places for Confucius Institute teachers and students. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, a fluent Mandarin speaker, studied in China. Ex-deputy PM Dariga Nazarbayev argued that closer ties to China is the destiny of Kazakhstan. Kyrgyzstan’s President Sadyr Japarov‘s parents lived in China for decades. Read full article →
The US is attempting to disrupt China’s Belt & Road Initiative across many parts of the world, so the BRI is setting up shop in Cuba, says Tom Fowdy, “China’s willingness to deepen ties with Cuba is illustrative of a broader strategic shift. In the past few years, Beijing may have been too wary of getting close to Havana for fear of upsetting the US or diluting its unilateral sanctions, but as the new reality of US-China competition has crystalized, and as Washington has sought to exploit the role of Taiwan, Cuba naturally becomes a means to push back”. Read full article →
The UN passed a Chinese draft resolution calling for peaceful cooperation on international security, the first arms control resolution proposed by Beijing in its 30 years as a member state. “Promoting International Cooperation on Peaceful Uses in the Context of International Security”, was approved with 75 votes in favour and 55 against. Beijing’s resolution was fuelled by a desire to enhance international security by preventing harmful military cooperation between countries, citing the trilateral Aukus deal in particular. Read full article →
Covid Policy in China. China moved fast and closed down a Disney theme park in about 2 hours and tested everyone. They also closed down schools for Covid testing. They believe that a Zero Covid policy is less costly than living with it and reintroducing restrictions each time outbreaks occur, China’s top expert, Zhong Nanshan, says. “The country had no option but to aim for zero infections because the coronavirus was replicating quickly and the global death rate of about 2% was unacceptable. Some countries have decided to open up entirely despite still having a few infections. That led to a large number of infections in the past two months and they decided to reimpose restrictions. This flip-flopping is more costly and the psychological impact on citizens is greater.” https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3154568/zero-covid-still-less-costly-living-it-chinas-top-expert-zhong
The Sixth Plenum
Best described as the beginning of a new epoch, the Sixth Plenum of the 19th Party Congress has started. This is a big deal with a “resolution on history” on the cards. Only three of these have been adopted. The first was in 1945 and served to firmly cement Mao’s era of revolution. The second was adopted in 1981 and served a similar function for Deng with his reform and opening-up policy. It is expected that Xi Jinping will be established as a long-term party leader and charting what is termed a new era. These resolutions are not only statements of the past, but serve strongly to confirm a new direction. The era of the Deng Xiaoping-inspired “opening and reform era” is now closing and Xi Jinping’s New Era will be entered as the era of Common Prosperity. While we usually talk about Mao and Deng and now Xi Jingping, the acknowledged representatives of the Chinese System and CCP are Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, and Hu Jintao.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202111/07/WS61870571a310cdd39bc73c86.html
We will hear more from this Plenum. It is clear, that at least in China, they consider this to be of considerable importance.
Something that people should bear in mind when looking at Chinese governance: These are not entry-level people. By the time that they become household names, they have solid education and successful previous governance experience. China is a merit-based country in its governance.
Please go and enjoy episode six of Nathan Rich’s excellent Epic China series, dealing specifically with the opium war. Note that 1839 was the last year in history that China was completely free of official foreign interventionism.
In 1839, The Qing Dynasty sought to reason with Britain (“The Lion”), to stop its illegal cartel opium smuggling operations.
Here is the playlist of previous episodes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gl1bPVn81Ok&list=PLo4_KHAgJYFypZFLczc5xf-BzNAfcHGgG
Many of the data points here are courtesy of Godfree Roberts’ extensive weekly newsletter: Here Comes China. You can get it here: https://www.herecomeschina.com/#subscribe
Quote: “And just days after COP26, China took the lead again by launching a new sophisticated Earth-science satellite. They have about 30 similar but less sophisticated measuring systems in orbit, but this one is dedicated to the UN 2030 Agenda, of course, to meet and fulfill agreements made with a factual presentation of actual data. What becomes clear is that the cheaters and self-worshipping big hot air statement makers from COP26 cannot hide their own actions any longer. (You can run but you can’t hide). If there are agreements to be made, China will measure the data and do the count.”
That sounds as if China wants to overtake the “West” in the madness of self-destruction (and mass-murdering) due to “climate change”.
Regarding the currently stongest levers towards the neo-feudal global world order, “covid” and “climate”, China and the “West” seem converging. So perhaps issues like “Taiwan” are just minor issues, mostly for show?
Or it could be a much-needed dose of actual science in this whole shebang. The climate *is* changing. International climate agreements *are* being made. It’s smart to have the data that can be used to substantiate or refute accusations of breaking such agreements. That data should also theoretically provide more detailed view of the changes as they happen. Its usefulness for furthering the scientific progress is difficult to predict, but in general there’s no such thing as “precise factual data that is useless to science”.
Oliver K says: “That sounds as if China wants to overtake the “West” in the madness of self-destruction (and mass-murdering) due to “climate change”.”
No it is not. The satellites will provide data, to counter western propaganda and lies if necessary, and to help make better decisions and policies.
Or are you suggesting China should just accept whatever data provided by the West?
Regardless of your view on climate change, China is not interested in “self-destruction” nor “mass-murdering” anyone.
“That sounds as if China wants to overtake the “West” in the madness of self-destruction (and mass-murdering) due to “climate change”.”
Yes, that is what it looks like.
But what the Chinese are doing is “beating the West by playing by its own rules”. What the West always does is come up with rules that it expects everyone but itself to follow. What the Chinese are doing is saying “OK, we will follow these rules but make sure that you follow them too.” At which point the West will go nuts because they are not expecting the rules to apply to them since they make the rules and enforce them.
I expect the the whole Climate thing to quietly disappear as being not such a good idea after all.
Thank you! rekas, d dan and jiri, for these comments and explanations. I think most of that is very pragmatic and well said.
Something else though, China does not consider ‘climate change’ as a thing in and of itself. It combines the concept with a clean ecology which is a driver of human health. It is not a single issue thing.
We all know that we are in a process (and it will take years) to move away from using fossil fuels, to alternative methods of power generation. The experts tell us that this will have an effect on climate. Whether they are right or wrong remains to be seen but clean ecology including less pollution is not a bad outcome in my mind. One of China’s goals at the moment is to construct 300 nuclear power stations. Modern, safe with the new enclosed methods that burn up the waste, and low pollution. There are hundreds of experimental ‘plots’ or pilot projects working with different methods of alternative power generation.
China has greened, i.e., planted trees more than any country in the world – last that I saw, was a landmass as big as Texas in China alone, and in other countries they have tree planting, greening deserts as an objective. I know of one, and that is in Namibia. There are more. And they are intelligent about it, using their trees as a method of income. Putin said just recently that Russia has massive forests, and we all know that forests, trees have an effect on climate.
It is good to remember that China views things differently. China’s ‘climate change’ is not Al Gore’s climate change. China doubles up, develops new industry and follows a holistic approach. China has cleaned up polluted air in a massive way and this holistic approach is a very large part of China’s development methodology. Who thought we would literally see blue skies over Beijing?
For anyone really interested in this, this is what China says about the US. What I found quite fascinating is the historical numbers:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202111/09/WS6189aee6a310cdd39bc74177.html
And this is what one of their experts say about climate change:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202111/09/WS6189ebf6a310cdd39bc74421.html
Of course in Russia they measure climate change and their permafrost is melting. In China they measure as well and they see the effects in deterioration of quality of soil for example. We cannot any longer say we are not in a process of changing climate. It is only natural and has happened before on our planet.
Besides all the incessant fights about this, I see nothing wrong in cleaning up environment, and assisting the poorer countries to move to a modern world without incessant poverty, without going through the pollution cycle of using fossil fuels.
What I also find interesting and this is as a result of moving to a different world ordered with multiple poles, is that both China and Russia are giving the west short shrift. It is so that the relationships are so bad, that they can perhaps talk to one another only on the level of climate change and this is how they keep a shallow relationship going. Everything is political these days.
So, Xi Jingping is largely credited with the growth of a environmentally clean movement in China. He is being a little deified at the moment but keeping that in mind, here is the thinking:
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-nine-key-moments-that-changed-chinas-mind-about-climate-change
To our poster that always asks me for detail on China’s demographics: Did not get to it this time but I have not forgotten. Patience :-)
Regarding Taiwan: this will end with some “action” that is kinetic.
I base this on the necessity to President Xi and the CCP to get control over Taiwan. President Tsai’s election and re-election threw the slow, peaceful, easy, gradual changeover into turmoil. It is now impossible to work out some other pathway. Her alliance with the neocons and US military is for keeps.
There is also, anecdotally my experience with immigrant Chinese from Taiwan. Southern California has many residents and some US citizens from Taiwan. They are all absolutely behind separation. By absolutely, I mean fanatically! They have zero interest in China as motherland. These people have economic interests that are totally within the US sphere. China is anathema to them.
There are significant Taiwan ties to the Motherland. Some are major economic ties. Breaking them will cripple Taiwan’s economy. It won’t hurt China because revenues that flowed back to Taiwan will thus stay inside China for more reinvestment.
Next Spring-Summer may be the post-Olympics window for China to end Tsai’s reign and to install a pro-Beijing regime.
There are several strategies that are less than total invasion and a very violent war. China will be rehearsing these. The test of the right strategy is the one that will not upset the ASEAN neighbors, not a strategy that the QUAD and AUKUS and EU can abide. China’s relationships with ASEAN countries is vital.
The US will be working to bait China into a failing strategic move.
The recent criminalization of the separatists and their supporters is a sign that the China will make an anti-crime move rather than an anti-separatist/anti-extremist move. PAP forces rather than PLA troops might be what they use. They have 1.5 million of them if that is what they decide.
Anecdotally I agree that the Taiwanese whom I have met outside of Taiwan have ranged from mildly to strongly anti-China. On the opposite side though, I have met Taiwanese inside China who were excited and proud to visit the Mother Country. It would be difficult to know the percentage in each camp versus how many really don’t care.
Master Sun would remark that the peasants care not who the ruler is as long as the taxes and law are just. I would hazard that the CCP will first try to cut the head of the snake off and leave the infrastructure intact – another tenet of Asian war. Watch for a decapitation strike of some type while the USA is engaged elsewhere.
Taiwan separatists depend entirely on the US backing them.
It is unclear whether the US is willing or able to fully support Taiwan independence.
The US has been unable/unwilling to support the Ukrainians which is a much smaller issue, with less risk than Taiwan. If US cannot back Ukraine fully, can it back Taiwan?
If things are not going well in Taiwan I expect the CCP to simply announce one day that Taiwan has re-integrated with the mainland and that it is sending a senior team of officials to manage the transition.
That will be the end of the saga.
The US is unable/unwilling to support the US and it will be the end of them.
Amarynth, you asked:
“Yes, you are right to sit up and take notice. Both Australia and Japan are in the lineup. What do we make of that? ”
RECP is meant for perpetuity; well, if that’s too lofty a goal to aspire to, at least it is hoped that the partnerships will last for decades. Japan and Auz, on the other hand, are babbling nd foaming at the mouths for the the time being. There were times when these clowns were cooperative, complaint, and capable of win-win. Their nascent bipolar fits are not reason enough to shut them out of a regional win-win fiesta that would last for a while. Besides, RECP sans Japan and Auz is a much miniatured outfit, while having them inside risks no ill side effects. What can they do to jeopardize trades between other parties in the partnership, besides babbling?
” … China’s top expert, Zhong Nanshan, says. “The country had no option but to aim for zero infections because the coronavirus was replicating quickly and the global death rate of about 2% was unacceptable … ”
Death rate is much smaller. IFR (infection fatality rate) is between 0.15% to 0.25%.
The North Atlantisists’ propaganda apparatus is all geared up to impose Orwelllian Newspeech about Táiwan: They call the resident governement of the Republic of China in Táibĕi’ (T’ai-Peh) “the governement of Taiwan” while her title is “President of China” (Republic of China/Chung-hua Min-kuo/Zhōnghuá Minguo’).
The aim of all this is to confuse West European, orth American and Osceanic (Aussie) opinion.
Wording is important. Especially as to names.
So they’ve appointed another president and created another country based on rules based international order. Well, it will go the same as Juan Guaidó. She will forever be in the hands of her imperial masters.
The cost of solar energy in China has dropped to a threshold equal to the thermal plant. In fact, subsidy was phased out last year.
China has made some breakthrough in semiconductor material. The manufacturing capacity in Xinjiang is as much as half of the world. And that is why Biden sanction Xinjiang and put a few manufacturers on the entity list.
China is commissioning a thorium reactor in Wuwei, Gansu, the first of this technology. Thorium fission reactor TMSR is considered much safer, and thorium is more abundant.
I live in China, and the media here are drumming for war with Taiwan at least since two years.
Roberts is simply lying about many things people living outside China will never know.
Others live in China too.
Which media?
What of the 4 extractions from Roberts here is a lie?
Draft resolution for peaceful cooperation?
Covid policy?
Disruption of Belt and Road?
Governance and the training/education plan?
Please tell.
>>Others live in China too.
Good. They could confirm the point made, if they can and are willing read Chinese media.
>>What of the 4 extractions from Roberts here is a lie?
Roberts depiction of what and how China is are distorted in many ways. He is wrong in essential parts about censorship, about corruption, about education, about the alleged democratic processes that Chinese policy is guided by. Calling him a liar over the years usually leads to a reply like: “And what about the west? What about the US? Happy with the situation there?” No, but that’s not the point. I would not live in China for two almost decades if I would find it unbearable or had a hostile attitude towards Chinese. Nor am I supporting the US-Empire. But that doesn’t make me blind for the things that are running wrong here. Roberts sees only in Black and White. He is a mirror of what he claims to criticize and what I initially found interesting.
>> What of the 4 extractions from Roberts here is a lie?
I did not bring this up.
And I would get censored by you if I spoke my mind about the Covid policy and the nonsense it is everywhere, not just in China. ^^
So you continue smearing someone else that has nothing to do with this article, and then to complain about a site policy.
It’s futile.