I have to admit that when I heard that the US has no intention of giving the Russians anything in writing I began wondering whether it even made sense for Lavrov to fly to Geneva. Yet, Lavrov thought otherwise and flew to the Swiss city. The outcome? Meh…
The US wants another week to prepare a written reply. Okay, that is some kind of result and I suppose that, considering what is at stake, waiting yet another week is okay. Frankly, the Russians are acutely aware of two things:
- US diplomats and experts are, at best, clueless amateurs
- The War Party is in full-blow hysterics mode
So they decided to give “Biden” another week. Like a teacher who agrees to give a particularly dumb student a few extra days to turn in his assignment.
What else?
Well, there is this: remember the rather weird words by Biden about a “minor incursion“? (since then, both Biden himself and Blinken has declared that Biden was misunderstood).
Today former ambassador McFaul, a true russophobic nutcase and certified imbecile, said that if the Russian soldiers go as far as Kiev this would trigger a full-scale response from the US and its allies.
Wait! What?
Since when do the Russians have to get their soldiers as far as Kiev to get sanctioned???
Before continuing, a few absolutely CRUCIAL reminders:
- Russia neither wants nor has any reason at all to invade country 404, with all its intellectuals already long gone (most of them in Russia, low qualified refugees when to clean EU toilets), its deindustrialized wastelands, its many neo-Nazis and zero natural resources (they already sold it all). In fact, most Russians are categorically opposed to any such intervention.
- The only thing which could force Russia to use her ground forces would be a successful (and rather unlikely) Ukrainian invasion of the LDNR. Russia currently does have the forces needed for such a counter-attack in her western regions. She does not have the size of force needed to occupy the Ukraine.
- Russia has the means to defang the Ukie military using only standoff weapons, Russian military experts believe that such an operation would take a week or even less.
In other words, the notion of a Russian ground operation to take Kiev is total, hallucinatory, nonsense. Ditto for the idiotic idea that Russia must invade in February before the frozen ground turns into dirt (Russian ground forces have no problems operating or fighting with dirt, snowmelts or any other natural phenomenon between -50C to +50C). That is exactly the kind of crap McFaul always spews (with this uniquely paranoid eyes and freaked-out facial expression). But the fact that McFaul is a drooling idiot does not mean that he does not have access to what is going on behind the scenes (Blinken is just as dumb, and he is in charge of the entire US diplomacy).
So what gave him this truly weird idea?
First Biden with his “minor incursion”.
Now McFaul with his “no Russian soldiers in Kiev”.
I can offer three possible explanations for that:
- The Biden Admin is doing a “April Glaspie” operation on Russia: tell the Russians that the US will do little or nothing as long as Russia only liberates some areas (presumably in the eastern and/or southern Ukraine) only to then take that as a pretext and declare some kind of war (probably not military, but political and economic for sure).
- The Biden Admin is really trying to get rid of the Ukie suitcase and wants to break up this monstrosity into smaller, much more manageable, successor states. If so, I like the idea.
- The Biden Admin is ready to let the LDNR break-away and move under the protection of Russia. Officially, of course, the USA will never agree to that, but they can present that as a problem they did not create and they could not solve alone either (or something else along similar PR lines).
Now, like I always repeat, there is a HUGE difference between “possible” and “likely”. The explanations above are only *possible* explanations for the weird language coming out of Biden and McFaul.
I also hasten to add that I don’t think that Russia will accept any such terms because they only refer to the Ukraine and not to a new international world order with a new international security framework, which is really what the Russians are after. And we are talking about verifiable, binding, security guarantees – not written, or even less so, oral, assurances.
However, if these proposals are made as one part of a much broader package of ideas, then they would be worth at least considering.
I have to tell you that my feeling is that the US has already at least partially lost control of the Ukraine and possibly even the EU.
Remember how I always write that when the US President is weak (which all of them since Bush Sr. have been) then the various branches of government and administrations begin doing their own thing, having a semi-official foreign policy of their own: one by the CIA, another one by the Pentagon, another one by Foggy Bottom, etc.?
Well, the same applies to US colonies: when the colonial master is weak and in deep crisis, the colonies begin feeling that they can act more independently. For example, the 3B+PU gang are now clearly setting the agenda in the EU, and the old Europeans à la Germany of France have become quasi irrelevant. Likewise, I am not confident at all that the real, hardcore, Ukronazis give a damn about what the US has to say, especially since the said Ukronazis seem to have the solid backing of the EU and parts of the Ukie government: just look at how Ze was unable to deal with Poroshenko – that will tell you a lot about the real correlation of forces in Banderastan.
This is the “tail wags the dog” thing on an international level.
All that is to say that I don’t find it likely that some big deal is being worked on behind the scenes.
But I do find it possible.
We shall find out soon, in one week or less according to the US side.
In the meantime the Ukies are massing a very large force right across the line of contact. I think of these Ukie forces like I think of folks driving motorcycles without a helmet: organ donors. Should the Ukies use that force to actually attack, the Russians will destroy that force in 24 hours or less. The problem is that Ukronazis are 1) rather stupid 2) totally fanaticized and 3) utterly unaware of the realities of modern warfare.
By the way, from a purely US point of view having the Ukronazis wiped out by Russian strikes is not a bad outcome as it would get rid of loads of truly crazy and unsavory characters.
I think of it as a “de-nazification by Russia” (along the lines of the expression “suicide by cop”).
One more thing: remember the rumors about the Russians evacuating their diplomatic personnel from Kiev? Turns out that it ain’t Russia, but the US and EU representations which are being evacuated (at least partially).
In the meantime, Stoltenberg wants Sweden and Finland to join NATO while many EU countries are now sending (small) forces into various locations in Eastern Europe. The worst of them all, the Baltic statelets, are now shipping Stinger MANPADs to the Ukies. Knowing how many Takfiris and neo-Nazis nutcases there are in Banderastan, this is absolutely, totally and terminally irresponsible! Yet those demented idiots are doing it. Typical.
I wish everybody a peaceful and great week-end!
Andrei
Update: NATO Deputy Secretary-General Mircea Geoana on Friday rejected Russia’s “anachronistic” demand for the Atlantic alliance to withdraw from Romania and Bulgaria, members since 2007.
Romania, which has recently “admitted” on its territory 1000 more American mercenaries, just declared it expects even more, including French.
Spain and Netherlands are sending F-16 and F-35 to Bulgaria, part of the so called European Air Policing.
Per CNN, Biden is ordering large scale US troops to be sent to eastern europe.
Aloha Saker, thanks for the analysis and perspective. I always look forward to your work and share it with everyone I can.
I had some US foreign policy classes in my undergrad time back in the day (1987-88) and I remember thinking “Why is the US so retarded?” We have created such an avoidable mess. There is a shocking amount of pride and hubris on full display in America’s history and our actions towards the world. And I cannot understand how my countrymen cannot see this or acknowledge our decline which, in my view, is directly connected.
I truly hope there is a peaceful outcome to this but the empire continues in its death throes, so nobody near it is really safe.
Also, wanted to thank you for posting the Orthodox History pdf – it helped get me started on the road to Orthodoxy.
Kind regards
I was in US colleges in DC (SIS and SAIS) from 1986-1991 and I have to tell you that most of my teachers (mostly military folks) were very responsible, well educated and honorable officers. They would have been absolutely horrified by the stampede of morons running the USA nowadays.
I think that the Cold War was, all in all, preferable to the kind of lunatic chaos we see nowadays.
I am glad that my humble efforts to convey something valuable about Orthodoxy have been helpful to you. Glory be to God for all things!
Kind regards
Andrei
My teachers were all academics but in looking back, I can see they had a pretty balanced view. I’m sure they would be horrified as well by the current idiocy that is American Foreign Policy. You are definitely right about the Cold War being preferable. There was a structure to that that everyone seemed to understand and work within. Now? Madness.
I’ve also found Andrey Martyanov and his videos on Youtube – very informative! Will be getting some of his books as well.
Glory to God!
Be well
Andrew
Follow the MONEY Andrew. $777 Billion of it, probably more undeclared.
I heard that the true total sum for US imperialistic aggression (military + 17 “intelligence” agencies) is close to 1 trillion dollars.
Any opinions?
Yes Andrei, in addition to the basic Defence Budget there’s an Overseas Contingency Budget, plus an Emergency Budget (Spin The Wheel ), a Veteran Affairs Budget which was over $200 Billion in 2020 that brings it well over the $1 Trillion . . . . and yet with Resource Theft, Drug Running and all the other clandestine activities, let’s make it a round $1.5 Trillion as these Jihadi Militias and failed Colour Revolutions don’t come cheap.
PS I say failed, however, folks, companies, still cash the checks even in defeat. Nice work if you can get it!
Easily. Vetrans Affairs are not, I believe, counted in the ‘military’ budget. Neither is the DOE, which makes the nuclear weapons. And a great deal of what little scientific research is funded, is DoD-related. Bio-weapons labs in Eastern Europe are not counted either, I believe. Basically, the ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund) is off-budget, and the military component of its activities is unknown. We are being bled dry on many levels, but the MIC is the largest parasite.
Also note that the Pentagon audit – attempted – went no where – why? The Pentagon can not be audited because of the so-called missing billions. Well, they are not missing, they are simply the real budget that can not be publicly disclosed. Corruption is used as an excuse, $50,000 toilet seats & the like, which no doubt exists, but is not the real issue – the real issue is the extortionate true cost of running a global military protection racket, it is vast, & if the American public were made aware of the real cost it could cause a major political scandal & upheaval. It is noteworthy that between 1945 – 1970 the US was effectively bankrupted by war expenditure, after emerging from WW2 fantastically rich, with much of the world’s finance capital in its banks, vast quantities of gold & other tangibles stored for “insurance & protection” – in a matter of 25 years it was all squandered. And the US had to offshore its manufacturing capacity in order to get the Wall St banks to agree to run a huge credit inbalance (i.e. loaning money that would never be repayed) – the real reason for the deindustrialization of the United States & not the mere opportunistic search for cheap labour, this was a lesser factor motivating a huge strategic blunder which has cost the US its position as No 1 industrial power. So, the military, & the foreign wars are simply unaffordable – global empire is coming to an end largely because no one can afford it – & can not admit openly its real financial cost.
“So, the military, & the foreign wars are simply unaffordable – global empire is coming to an end largely because no one can afford it – & can not admit openly its real financial cost.”
And now we’re pretending like there’s no insane quantitative easing going on in the US for litteral decades. As long the USD is a global reserve currency, US can run it’s budget into negative infinity. Only real way to make this practice useless it to make the USD a toilet paper of a currency.
Stop deluding yourselves, the US can’t go bankrupt as long as rest of the world uses it’s currency.
The budget numbers for the “intelligence ” agencies are so classified that Congress as a whole is not permitted to know the exact figures.
Forgetting the constitutional implications for the time beong, this begs the question of who is I charge of whom?
I have once worked up the actual numbers – that was back in 2018. I used several sources to gleam where some of the monies allocated to “defense” expenditures were hidden. At that time – >3 years ago! – I already concluded that the total comes close to $900 B (when the “official number was “a mere” $675 B).
I have this article on a medium site (to which I never added the promised follow-up – because…many things, medium as platform being one of them, even though the interface was a breeze**). You can check it out (hope the link works):
https://medium.com/@proterran2/the-costs-of-being-an-empire-b4fb80c90ad
I can probably whip up a similar analysis (based again on multiple sources plus educated guesswork) for the current actual budget – everything included, if you/others think it’d be worthwhile*. My first guess is the usual 30-35% “top-up”.
*Yes, I like playing with numbers – I consider it an occupational hazard
** In time, little by little I’ve been collecting “stuff” in a Substack site. To be unveiled one of these days (time permitting)
“ have to tell you that my feeling is that the US has already at least partially lost control of the Ukraine and possibly even the EU.”
Didn’t Ukraine said This retarded guy by the name of Biden has sent 20,000 mercenaries to Ukraine and fail to the cia style coup d’etat cia ? To change the comic 404 guy for other poppet?
Is there a deal being prepared behind the scenes?
The common ideology driving the West is Fascism.
If one wasn’t so filled with MSM propaganda one would think that the pandemic was a test to see which Nations were prone to accept Fascist rule.
And after 2 years of testing, here are the most draconian results.
The US has turned into a Fascist rule.
Britain has turned into Fascist rule. But the British people are fighting back
Canada has accepted Fascist rule
Australia has turned into a Fascist rule. But the Australians are fighting back
New Zealand has accepted fascist rule.
The EU has turned into a Fascist rule.
France has turned into a Fascist rule. But the French are fighting back
Germany has turned into a Fascist rule. But the Germans are fighting back
The Netherland has turned into Fascist rule. But the Dutch are fighting back
Ukraine has turned into Fascist rule.
Austria has accepted Fascist rule.
Italy has turned into Fascist rule. But the Italians are fighting back
In the fight over Ukraine it doesn’t matter for Fascist´s which Union (US or EU) Ukraine will be a vassal of, as long as it remains under Fascist control.
Please note that the Nation’s most prone to accept Fascist rule are members in NATO.
Thus the ultimate goal for Russia and humanity must be the fracture of the military arm of Fascism: NATO.
Italian sheeple fighting back? You must be kidding.
Unfortunately my connationals gladly accepted the brainwashing. Most people in the recent years were crying against fascism for each initiative that could have been even lightly patriotic and against EU dispotism and now they are welcoming all of the new dictatorial rules.
Italy is lost.
Maybe we will be able to recreate something in the future after a total collapse but people now are hating and fighting each other instead of fighting for their freedom.
Well somebody in Italy have demonstrated against the restrictions:
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Covid+demonstrations+Italy
The Globe is demonstrating against COVID tyranny Today and tomorrow.
Italians are not alone Lets see you on the streets.
Norwegian
I agree with italian: Are you kidding ??
Europe has populations of hapless sheep totally controlled by their elites.
The vestern elites are our common enemies, not the ones defined by our corruptet Media.
I share you frustrations.
But seeing People actually protesting is a minimum for what we are up against.
Suggesting anything but protesting will be unwise to advocate online, at the moment.
However, last time we were under lock down (1945) People found ways to fight Fascism.
And we will do it again.
I think that you are correct concerning the cracks in the ‘western alliance’. Appears from recent statements from Macron, plus lack of statements from the German FM, that the old, but major, EU powers are reassessing the Ukraine situation. Also appears that Finland is reducing their profile in the matter – definitely do not want to be seen as EU/NATO satrap.
The Ukie build-up along the Donbass region has been reported in bits and pieces for at least two months now and seems likely to result in a military push soon, if only due to the pent-up frustration of some of the more ideologically extreme elements. Most obvious timing would be the start-up of the Beijing Olympics. With the recent additions of anti-tank weapons, they do not seem to find a stand-off response by the RF to be a credible strategy. Perhaps they think that weaving into the area with smaller units among all of the non-combatants will work to prevent a massive response. I think that they either don’t realize that their support systems will be destroyed, leaving them isolated in a hostile region, or they think that NATO will mobilize air and other forces to protect their rear lines. Seems a forlorn hope, given the force relationships.
It would be insane for USA to provide a written response because it would provide political cover to Russia for their military technical response. Therefore, there is no reason to believe their promise to provide it next week.
At some point Russia’s patience will be perceived as weakness and thus Russia will start to lose the narrative/info war. That point is nearing.
It would be insane for USA to provide a written response because it would provide political cover to Russia for their military technical response
You are right. But you are smart. Blinken is not, and he did promise it publicly.
So Blinken has screwed over his own side :-)
Now they are stuck, the HAVE to give that written reply which, of course, will be leaked one way or another.
I am happy that Blinken is Sec of State and not you!
Kind regards
Blinken already said the written reply would not be in direct response to the treaty proposals, but instead a laundry list of US “concerns.”
From BBC: “Russia’s foreign minister said the US would send “written responses” to all of Russia’s proposals next week but Mr Blinken only said America hoped to share its “concerns and ideas in more detail in writing next week”.
So right away Blinken has snubbed Lavrov again. That’s twice in two weeks.
You are missing the point :-)
Even if Blinken’s reply is a piece of paper with only “FUCK YOU RUSSIA!!!” as a reply, Russia will have exactly what she was gunning for since Day 1 of that ultimatum.
Remember, Russian have ZERO trust in whatever the US Americans say or write.
What they want is to FORCE the US to reply, thereby creating chaos inside the US and inside the EU.
That objective they *already* achieved.
I agree that Russia doesn’t care what Blinken says. But forcing the US to reply with a meaningless reply is simply…meaningless (not to mention that we haven’t seen that reply yet). Also, the chaos inside the US and the EU is due to the fact that Russia has, as you say, already achieved their goals by merely proposing the treaties – which makes a US reply even more meaningless.
The bottom line, however, remains the same. Russia won’t get any significant movement towards ending NATO expansion or rolling back existing NATO expansion, and will have to implement their counter measures. Not getting a reply to its proposals is already a “victory”, but Russia still has to go ahead with their counter-measures. Meanwhile, the US drags this out while setting the Ukraine war in motion, which will make any reply they do make even more meaningless.
So we’re in agreement: nothing has changed.
If I may try to further explain what the Saker is signalling. First, all NATO members are American vassals and they have been engaged in destroying many small nations for quite some time when the US was swinging its Unipolarity power after the USSR transition. See Matthew Eheret article titled, “The Old Black Magic Just Ain’t What It Used to Be”. This US-NATO Regime Change was halted or seems to be halted after the failure in Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Now, the US and its NATO vassals who depends on the US for defense are now faced with the Russian Ultimatum so to speak. First, off will they support Ukraine against Russia if there is war. Second, all the American Vassals have become potential targets of a militarily powerful Russia. It is these two situations that have caused all the American Vassals to be rattling in their cages of American serfdom. This is not an Iraq, Serbia situation instead they are facing a bad Bear who potentially can finish them all in a wink. But, this is not Russia’s focus.
It’s focus as explained by the Saker is the global readjustments to a Multi Polar system as the Unipoar system is practically dead or it will be killed.
The Saker further explained that Russia has already got what it wanted which is chaos within NATO. But, the next stage is the dismantling of NATO as to the membership it has become too dangerous to be members in the light of Russia’s demands. This is one of the reasons as why they cannot arrive at a consensus as there is no honor among crooks.
I am of the view that Russia want US Military occupation of Europe and especially Germany to end. This Russian target is the kernel of the British/American policy and Putin may press the accelerator hard to get this issue on the German table as its future is hinged on Russian Gas as there is no substitute at this time. Germany has signaled its out of the US generated Ukraine crisis which seems as if the US will push the Ukronazis to war in the Donbass so as eliminate them as a force.
Russia will keep the pressure on turning up the ‘Pain Dial’ until NATO is all fragmented as they all have obsolete military gears that can do little harm to Russia. The best American military gears cannot compete with Russia at this time. Another reason why Russia must settle with the Europe and US involvement in Europe.
I guess this is the point the Saker was indicating.
Thanks for the explanation, because I had not understood the “chaos” goal.
@Saker
In EU the chaos has already started and it seems it is already creating a debacle for US….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhFpwwF5_xw&t=1140s
That piece of paper is legal proof the other side chooses war.
Kindly Humbly recall the following:
“Our contest in not with flesh-and-blood(matter) but against principalities of darkness and evil-spirits…” – https://biblehub.com/ephesians/6-12.htm
Ergo simplistically, the “dark” powers do things in D-ARK and the “light” powers do things in D-LIGHT, imho, lol (is there such a thing as non-evil-spirits(entities) which do things in the dark?? Not certain… perhaps… maybe… however things are, one thing is clear though: NO1CANSERVE2MASTERS – https://biblehub.com/matthew/6-24.htm ) – “Washington asks Russia to keep US response on security guarantees secret” – https://tass.com/world/1391787 + “Russia’s top diplomat urges US to go public with its reply on security guarantees” – https://tass.com/politics/1391593 + “Russian Foreign Ministry called a provocation US publication on Russian policy in Ukraine” – https://tass.com/politics/1391871
To wit, it does not “matter” if there is to be a response or whether or not said response is given the full light-of-day. The all-encompassing mammon-related issue remains in the concept of the Exorbitant-Privilege, from which root-and-trunk “all-of-the-above” mentioned budgetary governmental corruptions branch-out; again imho, lol (UCANNOTSERVEBOTHGOD+MAMMON – – https://biblehub.com/matthew/6-24.htm ) – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exorbitant_privilege
IOW, The All-Mighty-Dollar(MASONICSAURON) versus Basket-Of-Currencies(ALL-ELSE)…. Or, in the popular-words of the Architect from Matrix-genre: “You are here because Sion is about to be destroyed…” – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHZl2naX1Xk&t=259 +TOLKIEN-VER-SION- “Aragorn: Let the Lord of the Black Land come forth! Let Justice be done upon him!” – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To_RJ_mPNqM
DOUBLE-SPEAK-JOKER=JESTERDAY+TODAY: “Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so-many(99%) to so-few(1%) – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78emGJzXo7Q
McFaul is too much of a brainwashed believer in “liberal internationalism” and “democracy” to be involved in covert signalling based on insider knowledge. He really is a dumb liberal who believes the US is free and democratic and a beacon of light to the world and does no wrong. In his stupid book he says that the war in Iraq, NATO expansion, abrogating ABM Treaty, overstretch in Libya, etc. were merely “bumps in the road” of an otherwise noble US foreign policy record. He has no shame. He is clearly obsessed with Putin (in an unhealthy way) and projects blame for everything onto Putin and his “Thermidor” regime of “kleptocrats” in Moscow. He thinks that NATO expansion is akin to giving puppies and kittens to everyone and not a threat at all! What an ignorant tool. That’s why he teaches IR at Stanford I guess; to peddle BS to gullible American students.
The goal of China, Russia, Iran, and a host of other nations is to get the Outlaw US Empire to conform to what it signed onto in 1945–the UN Charter–and thus finally become a normal nation, although there’s the big issue of its debt that must be solved. Similarly, Russia’s diplomatic offensive is aimed at getting the Outlaw US Empire to again agree to the #1 postulate of Collective Security all three OSCE Treaties restate–indivisible security means no nation’s security can be obtained at the expense of another nation’s security. If that postulate would be adhered to by all the world’s nations, then there would no longer be any need for the current level of military establishments, and they could slowly be decommissioned along with the nukes and their delivery systems. Unfortunately, such an outcome will be viciously fought against by the Empire’s Merchants of Death for that would mean the end of their livelihood. I don’t see a similar problem for most other nations where the military industry is subordinated to the central government, not as supposedly private corporations.
Likely Blinken and Co has been trying to offer various options which could motivate Russia to step back and withdraw its documents… They were firmly told that none of the options would work for Russia… Likely one option was for Ukraine to start really implmenting Minks 2, but it did not work…
Now, Blinken should have exhausted all options and got confirmation that Russia insisted.. He reportadly comes back to Biden and Co plus some close allies to get he final confirmation for the written response…
I don’t believe there can be a backroom deal simply because there is no one person or entity in the US to make a deal with – and Russia knows it.
The reason that Russia is asking for an official position in writing is because there are so many different constituents in the US acting independently with their own agendas. Notionally Biden is in charge but even in this he has to deal with the Senate which is opposed to any deals with Russia. Then there are the intelligence services, the military contractors, the media, the moneyed interests etc. This is even more so with NATO which has even more dynamics.
Essentially what Russia is up against is a hive colony without a central Queen, and making a deal with one member is useless since they can easily be overruled/replaced by another.
This is why Russia wants things written down so that a couple of things happen:
1. There is some level of ownership of the issue from the Americans about what they say. A formal response from the US Executive is a place to start.
2. This will require some sort of internal discussions within the US to come to a common point of view.
3. Once written down, there is no confusion about what was meant or said.
In a way, Russia is helping the Americans/EU come to a consensus about their own posture, just like adults help children who are confused about what they want for Xmas. Write it down so we can look at it rather than yell it out different things at different times.
This is also why the US needs so much time to write things down – the state department draft has to be revised and grudgingly approved, if not signed off by all the various constituents.
All true, Chanakya. But when the Founding Fathers of the USA wrote the Constitution, they intended that the USA should stay out of all foreign entanglements. No wars, no enemies, not even any alliances. Just trade and friendship with all who wanted it. See Washington’s Farewell Speech, and similar warnings by Jefferson, Madison, etc.
Under such peaceable policies, the US political system would work. Checks and balances are ideal for internal affairs, where there is rarely much hurry and it is far more important to get everything right.
The “entrepreneurs” (bandits) who took over the US government during the 19th century had no use for checks and balances except – as you point out – as a system of diffusing responsibility to the point of non-existence, and making sure that no agreement, treaty or guarantee is worth the paper it is written on.
Which is why I honestly don’t understand the talk about “verifiable guarantees”, etc. No piece of paper can stop an attack being launched; and once the war is on, no one cares about the piece of paper. How do you verify that the other side is honouring a promise not to launch a preemptive attack? When the first thing you know about it is when your radars tell you “incoming”…?
The one person who could be considered with respect to making a deal in my opinion has been shipped off as Ambassador to New Zealand. That is Tom Udall, who did not run when last he was entitled to do so as a sitting Senator. He’s highly regarded in New Mexico, and didn’t lose any of that regard by standing down from an administration such as the present one. Whether or not it’s a good political move to send him out of the current mess, he would be one who could help right the ship had he the inclination to do so. Just my opinion, not worth much, and he may not wish to be part of the current fray, when the ship of state is sinking. He’s a good man, though.
Biden, in actuality, is in charge of nothing.
“I have to tell you that my feeling is that the US has already at least partially lost control of the Ukraine and possibly even the EU.”
i) Britsh arms supply flights had to bypass Germany on their way to Ukropistan.
ii) The Berlin prosecutor’s Office is investigating members of the presidium of the German Green Party, including party co-chairs Annalena Burbok and Robert Habeck [certified Russophobes] , Der Spiegel magazine reported on Wednesday … representatives of the party’s presidium in 2020 illegally received “coronavirus” payments in the amount of 1.5 thousand euros each. The party’s Presidium determined these bonuses for itself and paid them out. [I love the smell of corruption in the morning].
iii) Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said that Nord Stream 2 is necessary for reliable energy supply to Europe, and it is inappropriate to consider the pipeline as a threat.
iv) Prime Minister of the Federal State of Mecklenburg — Vorpommern Manuela Schwesig at a reception of the Eastern Committee of the German Economy called for the early certification of Nord Stream 2 … Gas is needed as an energy source, at least for the transition to renewable energy sources.
I think some Germans and other EU politicos with clout are fighting back against the US plans for Germany to commit economic suicide [with the US as a ‘purely coincidental’ benefactor?]
Well said…. and the list keeps growing. You may add the unusual fact that the Navy chief of Germany resigned over Crimea & Putin comments.
https://www.rt.com/russia/546858-german-admiral-resigns-comments-crimea/
Seems to me that Russia is already successfull in opening visible cracks within NATO. There are still some “more sane” voices in NATO, but those are abandoning ship now. Sure they know they become cannon fodder for uncle Shmuel.
There’s some hope for Germany. “German chancellor turned down Biden invite to discuss Ukraine crisis – Der Spiegel”. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-chancellor-turned-down-biden-invite-discuss-ukraine-crisis-der-spiegel-2022-01-21/
Saker, What do you think of reports that Turkey wants to broker a deal between Ukraine and Russia, only to have their gas pipeline bombed, while Russia is criticized for identifying past Ukraine leaders? What about Zelensky saying all the warmongering was “hype” and the citizens of the Ukraine should calm down. Doesn’t sound like Ukraine doesn’t want to be cannon fodder but the transit for natural gas into Europe. A deal between providers and users? Optimistic, but…
Russia has *zero* trust in Erdogan or Turkey. The latter are all smiles, but they opposed Russia in Syria, the Caucasus, Central Asia and even have claims on Siberia and China.
As for Banderastan, Turkey is playing both sides, which makes it a terrible broker.
No, I think that Russia will slowly but firmly “squeeze” down Turkey to its real size and relevance (with China’s help)
Saker, if the EU gets all its energy from the U.S. ISNT THE UKRAINE SCREWED? Doesn’t the Ukraine make most of it’s money transiting Russian gas. What benefit do they get from sacrificing their army for Uncle Sam? Seems like they would do a better deal brokering an agreement between the EU and Russia and cutting the US out. And as you have said, Turkey’s relationship to Russia is important to Russia that is has Turkey making parts to its military technology. And if you could get Turkey independent of NATO…
Nord Stream 2 was built to *avoid* the Ukraine.
End of story.
Ukraine Inc’s export income: food, remittances, metals https://ubn.news/remittances-by-ukraines-labor-migrants-is-forecast-to-reach-13-3-billion-this-year-11-higher-than-the-12-billion-recorded-in-2019-and-2020/
Wow,
this is actually pretty serious bit of info.
Remittances count for about $13 billion of an %155 billion economy. That’s about 8 percent which is a huge number.
“… I think that Russia will slowly but firmly “squeeze” down Turkey to its real size and relevance (with China’s help)”
And Iran.
Raisi visit to Russia [and its timing, LOL] is *hugely* significant.
BTW Russia pulled the same trick with timing Putin’s visit to India.
Dating back to the “Young Turks” of the 1910’s, Turkey has had pan-Turkic ambitions. Military assistance by Turkey to Ukraine (so far, especially drones) could be one way of drawing Russian military and political attention away from the “stans” with Turkic majorities – Kazakhstan as we have seen. Turkmenistan obviously, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan – and the Turkic minority, Uighurs, in the west of the Chinese province of Sinkiang (or however it is spelled in Pinyin). Erdogan’s regime may be repellent to Europeans, but he is certainly preferable to the Stalin mini-clones in the “stans”. The creeping rehabilitation of Stalin in Russia will especially alarm the Turks of the former USSR, so promoting pan-Turkic sentiment will be a low-cost and potentially high gain strategy for Turkey. Hence Turkey’s arming the Ukrainians – the more Russian troops that can be occupied with Ukraine, the fewer Russian troops there are to put down the revolts in the Turkic “stans”.
I’m sure that Putin and Lavrov knew exactly how Washington in its hubris would respond to a perfectly reasonable request to stop escalating its hybrid war of aggression against Russia using Ukraine as potential proxy canon fodder. Blinken has been relentlessly gibbering that America’s foremost foreign policy is simply “we do what we like and no one else has anything to say about it!”
But, before this seemingly futile meeting comes to a conclusion Lavrov ought to apprise Blinken and his nominal boss “Biden” of all the ramifications of Washington’s unilaterally defining the standards of legitimate foreign relations. Washington has asserted and established through military actions that if a world power wishes to “liberate” and annex a piece of another sovereign nation’s territory it is free to do so under the rubric of “might makes right.” Case in point, the Serbian province of Kosovo which was excised from that country after several months of heavy bombardment of Serbia lands, its capital Belgrade, and the embassy of a sovereign nation (China) choosing to maintain relations with the Serbs through their persecutions by the world’s exceptional country. Of course, the entire break-up of Yugoslavia into over a half dozen statelets was provoked by extensive American meddling as prelude to Kosovo.
Washington has also established the apparent legitimacy of military invasions, intense bombardments, and the assassination of national leaders in countries that America wishes to control after forcibly destroying their legitimate government, military, infrastructure and entire social order. Washington long ago set the precedents in its early history, mostly by bullying its Hispanic neighbors in the Americas. But, in more recent times, this reliable strategy has played out in Korea, Vietnam, Israel, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Somalia, to name only the largest targets of American aggression and skipping the even more numerous “minor” dust-ups in places like Panama, Grenada, Haiti, etc, etc.
Lavrov ought to tell Blinken that he should be honored that Russia so admires Washington’s forceful leadership that it is choosing to fully emulate their American “partners” and do what it pleases to defend its security against ever more incursions by an America that has clearly gone rogue and now merely bullies rather than leads. If Ukraine persists in begging for a lesson from its betters, one will be provided whether Washington approves or not. Russian populations will not be added to Washington’s Russophobic empire (period, full stop!). Furthermore, Washington itself just might be taught some essential geography lessons in the bargain, re-learning such niceties as Ukraine is 0 miles from the Russian frontier (and was actually part of Russia for most of the last thousand years) but is many thousands of miles across one huge ocean and several lesser seas from territory governed by the wayward regime in Washington. In short, Washington should have no complaints for other countries simply following its exemplary example.
What a great comment – And So True.
“I think of it as a “de-nazification by Russia””
Didn’t they do that once already?
In East Germany yes.
In Banderastan, not yet
Andrei
Do you think maybe Russia is allowing the US to drag out the response because Russia doesn’t plan to do anything dramatic til after the Olympics are over, and if the US agencies are squabbling over how to respond, and having useless meetings pretending to negotiate, they have less time to plan a disruptive provocation during the Beijing Olympics?
No because I am absolutely sure that Russia has no desire/need/intention to intervene in the Ukraine.
She might HAVE to do it, but she is not planning it.
Saker – great speculation as always.
Here are my questions related to what has been happening:
1) You have made it clear that Russia could solve these problems with strikes by standoff weapons. Would these strikes be limited to the military gathered near the Donbass front or hit military installations nationwide?
2) Do you believe there is any chance Russia might use a decapitation strike against the Nazi government in Ukraine?
3) Will Ukraine respond to any strikes on its territory by launching strikes into Russia? Does Russia also have to increase its security to protect against Ukrainian terrorists that might try to infiltrate and cause mayhem in Moscow or other areas of importance?
4) While I understand that your possibilities would only be enacted should Ukraine attack the Donbass, how does this address any of Russia’s problems with NATO? NATO is unwilling to limit its membership and from all intents and purposes says it is going to continue its open membership and defense of Ukrainian sovereignty even though the Russians have said this is a red line. I have looked at NATO and quite frankly I do not understand how their leadership is structured and what role the vassal states can play to bring NATO to heel. This may be one reason why Macron is set on creating an EU military. But the funny thing is if France and Germany were to move forward with this idea, would this mean that NATO would go away? Very hard to believe that there would be two military structures in Europe, one dominated by the USA and the other dominated by France and Germany.
5) If Russia limits its offense to standoff weapons, how would British troops and other NATO troops be removed from Ukraine?
My belief is that the USA wants Russia to act (perhaps they think Russia can be induced like Saddam was) in order to implement their war on Russia’s economy. I read an interesting piece that said that with fossil fuel prices rising and the fact that Russia’s government is far more solvent than those in the West (including the fiat-based USA), the sanctions from hell will simply not be effective as a deterrent. However, the USA could still claim some sort of victory by eliminating the Nordstream 2 pipeline. However, Germany appears to be pushing back against this policy knowing full well that the USA and its fossil fuel companies would love nothing more than to enrich themselves at the expense of the German economy – not the Russian economy. So, with that said, will Germany and France continue to move in a more independent orbit, especially if there is war in Ukraine.
I think like you, it would be great if the Ukraine could be brought to heel with standoff weapons. However, while that may win the battle, the real question is can NATO plans and its military be dislodged using only standoff weapons?
Allow me to respond to your questions in lieu of Saker’s response.
“1) You have made it clear that Russia could solve these problems with strikes by standoff weapons. Would these strikes be limited to the military gathered near the Donbass front or hit military installations nationwide?”
In my view, that depends. Russian military doctrine says you hit not only the forces you’re facing, but their command and control. If Russia decides in that direction, they should hit Ukraine forces in the rear as well as at the contact line, if for no other reason than to disrupt logistics so there are no reinforcements sent to the contact line. But that may also depend on the civilian political decisions. If Putin doesn’t want to go there, they won’t.
“2) Do you believe there is any chance Russia might use a decapitation strike against the Nazi government in Ukraine?”
Essentially the same answer. It depends on Putin’s political decision.
“3) Will Ukraine respond to any strikes on its territory by launching strikes into Russia?”
Ukraine won’t be given the opportunity. Any stand off hardware they have is either too far away from the contact line or will be destroyed early on. Russian military intelligence knows every piece of hardware the Ukies have and where it is. With Russian drones surveillance and air superiority, very little of it will escape.
“Does Russia also have to increase its security to protect against Ukrainian terrorists that might try to infiltrate and cause mayhem in Moscow or other areas of importance?”
My guess is that Russia’s military and federal intelligence services are constantly on the alert for such a thing, especially around Crimea. It’s also likely that any terrorists who actually succeed in some incident will bring down serious consequences to Ukraine. There have been incidents in the past IIRC, but nothing significant so far.
“4) While I understand that your possibilities would only be enacted should Ukraine attack the Donbass, how does this address any of Russia’s problems with NATO?”
It doesn’t. Ukraine is only relevant in that it is the country being directly supported by NATO at present and up until recently was being considered for NATO membership. The real issues are NATO expansion in general and the rollback of existing NATO expansion. Russia’s response to those issues probably won’t involve Ukraine.
The real problem is what happens if Ukraine attacks Donbass. Then Russia has to trash Ukraine in whole or in part. That immediately renders moot any movement on stopping NATO expansion or any rollback of existing expansion, as well as probably eliminating any wavering of the EU vis-a-vis the US and NATO. In essence, Cold War 2.0 takes firm hold.
However, I think Russia fully expects this to be the outcome and is prepared for that eventuality. What measures they will take then are unknown and unknowable until they happen.
Analytics: Top grade!
Do you believe there is any chance Russia might use a decapitation strike against the Nazi government in Ukraine?”
Transcendence is not facilitated by emulation, and the Russian Federation is not “The Soviet Union” which emulated their opponents periodically including in “decapitation” including in 1979 in Afghanistan, despite the advice of those preparing for the ongoing transcendence of “The Soviet Union”.
Mr. Bandera’s fate was facilitated by many parties not restricted to Mr. Sudoplatov and his associates.
Like Mr. Nemtsov, Mr. Bandera and Mr. Berezhovsky had become “inconveniences” to many, but unlike Mr Nemtsov, Mr. Bandera enjoyed the benefit of several states and organisations to effect his exit, whilst Mr. Berezhovsky understanding his fundamental loss of blat including the practice of “losing” to his former associate Mr. Abramovich, emulated a Roman Emperor, retired to his blath, did not open some dull opiate to the drains, but opened his veins.
,
Anything is possible.
What is probable?
Look to goals, established predictable goals.
The goal for the US is to get Russia into more sanctions. The idea is to cripple Russia’s economy (even though sanctions won’t achieve this, but the Russophobes only have sanctions, so they believe in them.)
The goal for Russia is to break NATO. That is halfway there. Several nations already have said they will stay out of any war with Russia. That means Article 5 is broken if war breaks out and some nations are caught up in the war. Also, some members of NATO have indicated they don’t want Ukraine in NATO, not now, not in ten years.
Some like the idea of a neutral Ukraine.
Thus, NATO is being weakened at its core principle. All for one, one for all, Article 5 is shriveling as we speak.
The US is desperate to hold the alliance. It even dreams of it joining AUKUS in the Pacific containment of China.
Well, Russia is stressing the seams of the alliance. Whatever actions Russia eventually takes will confront NATO and the US in some way that will bust the alliance substantially.
The US is using Ukraine to bring sanctions upon Russia.
Russia is using Ukraine to break NATO and confront the US to stand alone in stark weakness.
A secret deal? A deal?
I see no place, no objective that fits a deal.
Any deal is capitulation by one side or the other.
That is impossible, not possible.
All that can happen is the US leave the scene. Britain wants Ukraine. Britain, Poland and the three dwarfs of the Baltic will carry on if the US withdraws.
The West is not going to give up Ukraine. It is the next best thing to fighting Russia directly. The Ukies are happy to battle in Donbass as they have for eight years. They will do so with more weapons, more money and more encouragement.
The reality of the situation remains as it always has been: it is Russia’s move.
Just remember what the goal of Russia is: the breakup of NATO. (It is not about Ukraine.)
Speaking of a secret deal, Washington now has asked Russia to keep its written response secret, according to Tass and the Washington Post. https://tass.com/world/1391787
LOL
Moscow would be nuts to do that. Remember Cuban missile crisis? Because the agreement hat the US would withdraw the Jupiter missiles from Turkey was kept secret, the whole thing was passed of as a great victory for the USA rather than a joint victory.
Larchmonter, my close friend and dear comrade. What you have written is a very clear and erudite synopsis of the situation and I agree with every word you wrote. You see through the fog and bovine scatology tossed up by the amateurs in Foggy Bottom and Five Points, the amateurs who are dumbfounded by the Russian Diplomatic Service, read totally outclassed. Well done! Would that I had your skills of cutting to the quick!
Auslander
The US Government and elected bodies are a reflection of its citizens, sorry, 80% are semi-illiterate Supposedly there’s a new groundswell of WORKERS (well those numbers have dwindled in recent years ) UNITED against not only the Repugnant Party (who view Unionism as Commie-Pinko) but also the Dimocratic Party as equally rotten to the core Users. This new initiative they view as A CLASS WAR, financial bailouts by the 2fer1 Parties for the Elite while they fight for toilet breaks and better working conditions on the AMAZONIAN PLANTATION.
Similarly, here in the UK, as much as Partygoer Boris and The Elite are supporting NATO, these Clowns will suffer a backlash from the British Public (only 70% illiterate ) should he involve the country in a WAR with Russia.
What we’re talking about here then is A Lust For Dominance from the 1% and it’s shameful that these treasonous bastards in the West and their minions act without the consent of the people.
Much like the US/Bankers use of Sanctions on particular Individuals & companies, I hope that Russia finds a way to hurt these Elite Maggots in their pocket, castles and yachts and not so much the Great Helpless Unwashed.
I know for certain that should a Russian missile hit London/UK then the UK Government will fall the next day and citizens will be baying for their blood.
If specialists such as Martyanov and you Andrey, are saying there’s more about these boring news announcements and backdoor negotiations than meets the eye, then I can say what’s on the back of my mind: the United States and the collective West have begun Operation Saving Private Face.
Gold!
Really, I think the whole “Russian boogeyman gonna invade Ukraine” schtick is just the Democrats trying for a bounce in the polls for the 2022 midterm elections. The fact that there are actual Russians around they have to actually talk to is just an inconvenience to them, largely irrelevant. They will be hard to talk to because they have no real diplomatic objectives, they’re only there to posture for the cameras and look tough for the American audience. On the other hand, it does mean the chances of them doing anything very real are slim; another symbolic sanction or two and some huffing and puffing, but no attempt to do serious damage.
…I don’t think that Russia will accept any such terms because they only refer to the Ukraine and not to a new international world order with a new international security framework, which is really what the Russians are after…
Absolutely agree Andrei.
RF proposals to the US and Nato mention the role of the UN Security Council as the arbiters of international peace several times, both in the preamble and the articles, IOW they want an end to the ‘rules-based order’ currently entrenched in the West’s thinking and practice.
If we look at the RF Ultimatums as a cascade of demands, we can guess the implicit RF priorities — in that respect Ukraine (mentioned only once by name in the Nato document) is pretty low in the pecking order of priorities; which is not surprising since RF can take care of PU+3B without breaking sweat.
Most analysts/commentators — and not just here — have been greatly distracted by the US’s constant harping on Ukraine and made to look at a particular tree — and how and which way to fell it — rather than the woods, and in this sense the US has succeeded in deflecting RF’s real demands from the public mind.
I believe from RF’s point of view — and PRC will agree with the view –, faced with a nuclear power adversary, the imperative thing is to get back to nuclear arms control regimes (ABM, INF, Open Skies) first before anything else is contemplated — the gist of RF’s demands actually, and UN supremacy in matters concerning war and peace.
It is easy to be dismissive of the West’s ability to keep a promise — and who can blame us — but such things as treaties still work even in times of tension and loony rule:
“January 18. /TASS/. Russian inspectors will visit a military facility in the United Kingdom under the 2011 Vienna Document on security and confidence-building measures, the head of the Russian National Nuclear Risk Reduction Center, Sergey Ryzhkov, said.”
https://tass.com/defense/1389381
Russia is not in the business of wrecking countries but it does have legitimate security concerns, and will take steps to ensure its security. With regard to the Donbass, the increased presence of RF military muscle on its western border — and no one denies this — is part of the guarantee of Donbass’s security. Crimea is a given.
RF is a great power and like any great power, it has allies, formal or otherwise. It is consolidating its relations in the Union State, CSTO, CIS, with PRC, Iran, etc; its geopolitical manouvres thus also need to reassure its allies of its ‘surefootedness’ in its dealings with its adversaries. Who knows, that ‘surefootedness’ may also prompt an increasingly frisky Turkiye (vis-a-vis Europe; and its ideas about charting its own ‘Turkic’ path) with the most powerful military in Euro Nato, to contemplate being neutral should RF have to deal with the Ukraine.
Top grade!
I don’t believe Russia ever expected any acceptance of its (non)ultimatum. Rather, it was a desire to be on the right side of history – objective achieved. Also, they are using their overwhelming superiority in diplomacy to fracture the collective West. This is being steadily achieved. One has to admire the vision and skill. The Iranians set the pattern when they dropped missiles on the US base, showing the Emperor has no clothes. It would have been all too tempting to set the 1st Guards Tank Army loose to roll as far west as they wished. But no; clever people in the Kremlin have devised a strategy to win without firing a shot. If there is no US written response (already cast into the role of naughty school boy late with his homework) then the ratchet will tighten. Meanwhile, the ineluctable forces of nature (economy, energy, political, social, racial) further undermine the west whilst Russia strengthens its ties in the east. Frankly, a masterpiece of strategy.
Готовится ли сделка за кулисами?
– Она уже ведется.
Сегодня бывший посол Макфол, настоящий русофоб-псих и констатированный дебил, заявил, что если российские солдаты дойдут до Киева, это вызовет полномасштабную реакцию США и их союзников.
Ждать! Какую?
– “Реакция”- абакция – рафакция… Реакция будет восторженной, но скрытной! Это же “бой за Гейропу”, а если США не могут выиграть – они уничтоюат все (тактика выжженной земли).
Америке нужен ЕС в руинах, в холоде и голоде – тогда амеро- мародер и приберет ресурсы (активы, технологии, умы и руки), как всю историю бывало.
Оставив с носом и Россию и Китай.
С каких это пор русские должны доводить своих солдат до Киева, чтобы попасть под санкции???
Прежде чем продолжить, несколько абсолютно ВАЖНЫХ напоминаний: Россия не хочет и не имеет никаких причин вторгаться в страну 404
– Путин с 2014-го постоянно заявляет, что “Россия заинтересована в территориальной целостности Украины”, [внеблоковой конфедерации Украина].
Единственное, что может заставить Россию использовать сухопутные войска, — это успешное (и довольно маловероятное) вторжение Украины в ЛДНР.
– Не только СВ ВС РФ. Россия во всех войнах будет задействовать все системы и средства вооруженной борьбы [все виды и рода войск, все виды вооружения, военной и специальной техники (ВВСТ), включая Стратегические ядерные силы (СЯС)].
В соответствии с Новой [трехуровневой/трехмерной – три войны] концепцией стратегического сдерживания, деэскалации и пресечения угроз военной безопасности концепцией будущих/предстоящих войн. Согласно которой Стратегические наступательные силы (СНС) в виде Стратегического неядерного оружия СНЯО уже вписаны в традиционную сферу сил общего назначения (СОН) в части решения задач локальных войн.
Система стратегических действий ВС РФ на Даркаине/НАТО/ВС США отработает Единую стратегическую операцюй (ЕСО). В проведение которой будут включены ОССС (операции стратегических сил сдерживания) и ОСОН (операции сил общего назначения).
А СНЯО, НСЯО/ТЯО и СЯС централизованно решат задачи локального, регионального и глобального, сдерживания. То есть “угандошат” в пух и прах, чтоб неповадно было даже думать… о реванше.
У России в настоящее время есть силы, необходимые для такого контрнаступления в ее западных регионах. У нее нет сил, необходимых для оккупации Украины.
– “У России в настоящее время есть силы (и потенциал/ресурс), необходимые для” одновременного или параллельного ведения трёх войн: локальной, региональной, мировой. В сегодняшней войне сначала следует завоевать воздушное, морское превосходство, а нам и завоевывать не надо и так все превосходства во всех доменах/сферах/средах наши! Так что изгнание гадаринских свиней труда нам не составит никакого, только радость и чуство глубочайшего удовлетворения. Бить будем отовсюду – удары с неба, с моря и земли (морской десант, воздушный, бтг… колонны танковые с РФ/Крым/РБ, а ПМР котел закроет))). У нас есть силы оккупировать Европу – легко! Но вот увязнуть в этом кале неохота.
Но “оккупация” не входит в цели, задачи, планы ЕСО – только наведение порядка, установление законной власти, помощь … и уборка за собой.
У России есть средства, чтобы обезвредить украинских вооруженных сил, используя только боевое оружие, российские военные эксперты считают, что такая операция займет неделю или даже меньше.
– “Такая операция” займет от 0,5ч. до 1,5-2,0 суток, ну максимум до 3(трех). Масштаб применения военной силы зависит от масштаба угрозы. Какой план выберет наш Верхоглавк, такие средства, методы применим – обычные или высокоточные гиперзвуковые и/или ядерных. А может микс – закрытие “района” и “неба” в том числе, работа РЭБ и РЭП-зарядов, артиллерийский, минный, авиабомбовый удар, арт/РСЗО подготовка ЯЗ/ТЯО (что по КП, ПУ, укрепрайонам эффективно))), потом уж и обычными… У нас же ТЯО раз в 15 больше чем США, Росатом круглосуточно штампует, вот и утилизируем, которым ГСХ истек. ))) Неделя – это наведение порядка, … см. выше.
Основные цели,меры и средства нейтрализации локальных, региональных[ и глобальных возможных военных опасностей и военных угроз в рамках Новой трехуровневой концепции стратегического сдерживания:
– СЯС (стратегические ядерные силы) вкупе с НСЯО/ТЯО (нестратегического/тактическим ядерным оружием) и СНО (стратегическим неядерным оружием: гиперзвуковыми ракетами, планирующими крылатыми блоками, …) обеспечивают Глобальное ядерное сдерживание с опорой на эффективный потенциал ответных действий СЯС в любых условиях стратегической обстановки;
– ядерное оружие (СЯС и НСЯО/ТЯО) во взаимодействии с СНЯО выполняет роль сдерживания, деэскалации и пресечения крупных неядерных угроз, в том числе коалиционных;
– СНЯО дополняет механизм ядерного сдерживания, способствует достижению целей стратегического блокирования локальных неядерных угроз военной безопасности и обеспечивает невозможность сползания ядерного порога в сферу локальных войн и вооруженных конфликтов]
…
Все это говорит о том, что я не считаю вероятным, что за кулисами ведется какая-то большая работа. Но я нахожу это возможным . Узнаем скоро, по данным американской стороны, через неделю или меньше.
– Как БлинкИн обещал, он явит миру “свои озабоченности”. Мы знали, это “школа Соломона Пляра – две шаги налево, две шаги направо, шаг вперед и две назад”. Гарантий не дождаться, тем паче на бумаге или вслух. А неофициально США включают заднюю уже.
Если укры воспользуются этими силами для фактической атаки, русские уничтожат их за 24 часа или меньше .
– Верно, “или меньше”. )))
Проблема в том, что укронацисты 1) довольно глупы 2) тотально фанатичны и 3) совершенно не осведомлены о реалиях современной войны.
– Ни то и не другое, точнее всего помногу. ))) Но главное, что в “угрожаемый период” (не говоря уже времени когда придет приказ о вскрытии Секретного пакета, если придет конечно))) их словно ветром сдует. Сдадутся, разбегутся, …
Кстати, с чисто американской точки зрения уничтожение укронацистов российскими ударами — неплохой результат, так как это избавит от кучи по-настоящему сумасшедших и неприятных персонажей.
Я думаю об этом как о «денацификации со стороны России» (в духе выражения «самоубийство полицейского»).
– И это абсолютно верно: проблемы индейцев шерифа никогда не волновали. (с)
PS
– Математическая модель/сценарий … аналогичной провокации в Приднестровье (ПМР) выдает аналогичный результат.
Но я войну не верю, хотя давно желаю … Это же все акты пьесы “Стратегическое сдерживание”, в главных ролях: Россия Пиндостан.
А для эффективного сдерживания угроза должна выглядеть правдоподобной т. Как этого добиться США? Миссия мне кажется невыполнимой.
И вообще, при анализе проблем стратегического сдерживания надо рассматривать всю совокупность факторов, определяющих его эффективность, – не только военно-стратегических и военно-технических, но и политических (политико-психологических), экономических, информационных и пр.
В данном случае политико-военному сдерживанию сопутствует угроза применения других “адских”/жестких политических и экономических мер в отношении России еще до порога применения Вооруженных сил РФ.
Политико-военное стратегическое сдерживание – это прежде всего угроза той или иной дозы возмездия за разного рода действия, угрожающие жизненно важным интересам России, направленная на недопущение таких действий. Эта угроза предусматривает тот или иной масштаб применения военной силы.
Google translation,MOD:
Is a deal being prepared behind the scenes?
– It’s already underway.
Today, former Ambassador McFaul, a real Russophobe psycho and a declared moron, said that if Russian soldiers reach Kiev, this will cause a full-scale reaction from the United States and its allies.
Wait! What?
– “Reaction” – abaction – rafaction … The reaction will be enthusiastic, but secretive! This is the “battle for Geiropa”, and if the US cannot win, they will destroy everything (scorched earth tactics).
America needs the EU in ruins, in cold and hunger – then the amero-marauder will take away resources (assets, technologies, minds and hands), as it happened throughout history.
Leaving with a nose both Russia and China.
Since when did the Russians have to bring their soldiers to Kiev in order to fall under sanctions???
Before continuing, a few absolutely IMPORTANT reminders: Russia does not want and has no reason to invade the country 404
– Putin has been constantly saying since 2014 that “Russia is interested in the territorial integrity of Ukraine,” [the non-bloc confederation Ukraine].
The only thing that can force Russia to use ground forces is a successful (and rather unlikely) Ukrainian invasion of the LDNR.
– Not only the RF Armed Forces. In all wars, Russia will use all systems and means of armed struggle [all types and types of troops, all types of weapons, military and special equipment (AMSE), including the Strategic Nuclear Forces (SNF)].
In accordance with the New [three-level / three-dimensional – three wars] concept of strategic deterrence, de-escalation and suppression of threats to military security, the concept of future / upcoming wars. According to which the Strategic Offensive Forces (SNA) in the form of Strategic Non-Nuclear Weapons SNF are already included in the traditional sphere of general-purpose forces (SNS) in terms of solving the problems of local wars.
The system of strategic actions of the RF Armed Forces on Darkain / NATO / US Armed Forces will work out the Unified Strategic Operation (USO). The conduct of which will include OSSS (operations of strategic deterrence forces) and OSON (operations of general forces).
And SNF, NSNW/TNW and SNF will centrally solve the problems of local, regional and global deterrence. That is, “Ugandos” to smithereens, so that it would be disrespectful to even think … about revenge.
Russia currently has the forces needed for such a counteroffensive in its western regions. It does not have the forces necessary to occupy Ukraine.
– “Russia currently has the forces (and potential / resource) necessary for” the simultaneous or parallel waging of three wars: local, regional, world. In today’s war, you first need to win air and sea superiority, but we don’t even need to win all the superiority in all our domains / spheres / environments! So the expulsion of the Gadarene pigs will not be any work for us, only joy and a feeling of the deepest satisfaction. We will strike from everywhere – strikes from the sky, from the sea and land (seaborne assault, airborne, BTG … tank columns from the Russian Federation / Crimea / Belarus, and the PMR will close the boiler))). We have the power to occupy Europe – easy! But getting bogged down in this feces is reluctant.
But “occupation” is not included in the goals, tasks, plans of the ECO – only restoring order, establishing legal authority, helping … and cleaning up after oneself.
Russia has the means to neutralize the Ukrainian armed forces using only military weapons, Russian military experts believe that such an operation will take a week or even less.
– “Such an operation” will take from 0.5 hours. up to 1.5-2.0 days, well, up to a maximum of 3 (three). The scale of the use of military force depends on the scale of the threat. What plan our Verkhoglavk chooses, such means, methods are applicable – conventional or high-precision hypersonic and / or nuclear. Or maybe a mix – the closure of the “area” and the “sky”, including the work of electronic warfare and electronic warfare charges, artillery, mine, aerial bombing, artillery / MLRS preparation of nuclear weapons / tactical nuclear weapons (which is effective for command posts, launchers, fortified areas))), then the usual ones … We have TNW 15 times more than the United States, Rosatom is churning out around the clock, so we are disposing of it, which the GSH has expired. ))) A week is putting things in order, … see above.
The main goals, measures and means of neutralizing local, regional [and global possible military dangers and military threats within the framework of the New three-level concept of strategic deterrence:
– SNF (strategic nuclear forces), together with NSNW / TNW (non-strategic / tactical nuclear weapons) and SNO (strategic non-nuclear weapons: hypersonic missiles, gliding cruise units, …) provide global nuclear deterrence based on the effective potential of response strategic nuclear forces in any conditions strategic environment;
– nuclear weapons (SNF and NSNW/TNW) in cooperation with SNF carry out the role of deterrence, de-escalation and suppression of major non-nuclear threats, including coalition ones;
– SNF complements the mechanism of nuclear deterrence, contributes to the achievement of the goals of strategic blocking of local non-nuclear threats to military security and ensures that the nuclear threshold cannot slide into the sphere of local wars and armed conflicts]
All of this to say that I don’t think it’s likely that there’s a lot of work going on behind the scenes. But I find it possible. We will find out soon, according to the American side, in a week or less.
– As BlinkIn promised, he will reveal to the world “his concerns.” We knew it was “the school of Solomon Plyar – two steps to the left, two steps to the right, one step forward and two steps back”. Guarantees do not wait, especially on paper or aloud. And unofficially, the United States includes the rear already.
If the Ukrainians use these forces to actually attack, the Russians will destroy them in 24 hours or less.
– That’s right, “or less.” )))
The problem is that Ukronazis are 1) pretty stupid 2) totally fanatical and 3) completely unaware of the realities of modern warfare.
“Neither one nor the other, more precisely just a lot. ))) But the main thing is that in the “threatened period” (not to mention the time when the order to open the Secret Package comes, if it comes of course))) they will be blown away by the wind. Give up, run away…
By the way, from a purely American point of view, the destruction of the Ukronazis by Russian strikes is a good result, since it will get rid of a bunch of really crazy and unpleasant characters.
I think of it as “denazification by Russia” (in the spirit of the expression “cop suicide”).
“And that’s absolutely true: the sheriff never cared about Indian problems. (With)
PS
– A mathematical model/scenario… of a similar provocation in Transnistria (PMR) gives a similar result.
But I don’t believe in war, although I’ve been wanting it for a long time… These are all the acts of the play “Strategic Deterrence”, starring: Russia Pindostan.
And for effective deterrence, the threat must look plausible. How can the United States achieve this? The mission seems impossible to me.
And in general, when analyzing the problems of strategic deterrence, it is necessary to consider the entire set of factors that determine its effectiveness – not only military-strategic and military-technical, but also political (political-psychological), economic, informational, etc.
In this case, political-military deterrence is accompanied by the threat of other “hellish”/tough political and economic measures against Russia even before the threshold of the use of the Russian Armed Forces.
Politico-military strategic deterrence is primarily the threat of a certain dose of retribution for various kinds of actions that threaten the vital interests of Russia, aimed at preventing such actions. This threat provides for one or another scale of the use of military force.
fantastican komentar Andreja iz Moskve.
Yandex translation. Mod:
a fantastic comment from Andrei in Moscow.
Спасибо(г)!
Canadian propaganda apparently said more “Russian hacking” is coming.
Darn those Russian hackers guys!
@ Realist on January 21, 2022
“…Lavrov ought to tell Blinken that he should be honored that Russia so admires Washington’s forceful leadership that it is choosing to fully emulate their American “partners” and do what it pleases to defend its security against ever more incursions by an America that has clearly gone rogue and now merely bullies rather than leads…”
——————-
Ryabkov would be in full agreement with you.
TASS.RU carries articles that do not appear on TASS.COM, and I had just read an article where Ryabkov expands on how Russia is shaping the security agenda, and the US/West are just following, before stumbling on your thoughtful post.
https://tass.ru/politika/13496617 (need translator)
“Ryabkov: The United States and the West as a whole follow the security agenda formulated by Russia”
“…Diplomacy turned out to be not only the art of the possible, but, to some extent, the art of the impossible, because the tasks and the frontiers that we must reach, they were probably not considered in practical terms some time ago. Now we are doing this on a daily basis. The agenda on which we work is formulated by us, and the United States, and behind them the so-called collective West, follow this agenda,” the deputy minister said.
“We are keeping the foreign policy initiative. We will work to ensure the security of our country more reliably. The role of diplomacy, in my opinion, has increased,” Ryabkov added…”
———————-
Russia came from behind and in twenty years was able to stand up to the US/West as a whole, take back the diplomatic initiative, and forced the US/West to a dialogue on collective security.
Not an easy fit.
Martyanov today quoted Deng Xiaoping paraphrasing von Clausewitz, in the video posted by Saker on the Blinken/Lavrov meeting, “Diplomacy is the continuation of war by other means.” We sure hope the potential for war will continue to be resolved diplomatically, and as long as Russia is in the lead, there is a possibility.
Lone Wolf
Fine in theory but don’t forget that for the neocons gang this the fight of their ENTIRE LIFE, last chance to destroy Russia and awaiting their armagedon and the coming of their fake Messiah(a World war must happen where christians and muslims will destroy each other…) then we all know the rest..Jerusalem capital of the remaining world order and we survivors, their slaves.They don’t care about the US, Europe even about ukies.Their loyalty belongs only to the zio entity occupying temporarily Palestine.
Check the Talmud and Torah.It is idiot for us and crazy but the problem is, THEY believe it.
They can only double down.
During the meeting with Blinken and Lavrov, I have watched a video whereby Blinken look into the face of Lavrov to tell him that the US will not agree to Russia’s draft proposal to stop NATO expansion to include Ukraine. Is that not what the response from the US will be. ? Then what will Russia do?
Patience while inducing confusion to the enemy can be a tactic. It might all boil down to the phrase, who will you pay to be your friend in the end and what price will it bring when the dollar doesn’t mean a thing?
The Saker, what is your take on the meeting between Shoigun and Wallace? Any results?
I think the possibility of a behind the scene deal is almost zero. Given the important fact – among many others – seeing how eagerly those little mini- states in Eastern Europe are prostituting themselves for their Western paymasters, the US’ subconscious ego section is -today- way too inflated to be able to show any sign of weakness and/or return to normal patterns of behavior. Psychologically speaking- In other words Washington has no other choice but to act in grandiose styles. Which explains why Biden thinks it’s easy to defeat not only Russia but China as well as Iran all at the same time. That was evident when during their recent meeting in Geneva between Russia and the US, Blinken’s face showed extreme levels of obliviousness, while the other was filled with confidence.
“Я думаю, что возможность закулисной сделки практически нулевая.”
– Вы имеете в виду возвращение Евро-НАТО в границам 1997 года, согласно Основополагающему акту Россия – НАТО “О взаимных отношениях, сотрудничестве и безопасности”?.
Если да, то Кремль и не сомневался в этом.
Сегодня США вынуждены “лавировать”, вынужденно создавая себе ситуацию “вечный шах”, прекрасно понимая. что ничьей не будет!
Санкции США/НАТО против России неэффективны, а другого механизма “сдерживания” Русского медведя у США/НАТО (сегодня) нет. Война обрушит США, а не Россию – РФ на континенте Доминант!
Замечу, США, скоро век, играет в карты, Китай 35 веков – в вэйци (Го), Россия 5 веков – в карты, шахматы и Го, и издревле в Царя горы. )))
Вы видите процесс по принуждению США к миру, Россия и Китай заставят США:
официально принять ответственность за судьбу вассалов:
принять Новую систему стратегической безопасности (и стабильности), Новой системы контроля над вооружениями (в т.ч. в космосе и киберпространстве), …
В противном случае – РФ выходит из СНВ№ с РСМД и Пиндостану гарантирована смерть!
PS Привязанный к кровати неизлечимо больной не хочет эвтаназии – боится. Но Путин сказал: “В морг”, значит в морг! – пока везут, пусть истерит, болезный: визжит, брыкается, плюется …
И напоследок
Россия стала “Великой” не за счет присоединения “Украины” (в 1651–1654 гг. Левобережная Гетманщина Малопольской провинции католического Королевства Польского (Речи Посполитой) попросилась под протекторат московского царя Алексея Михайловича Тишайшего – Романова в Великое княжество Московское.
А когда Русское царство стало расширятся Сибирью. Так что, ваш Бжезинский пошлый шулер, который играл краплеными картами на “шахматной доске”.
Ну, шлюхтичи – они такие…. такие же хохлы.
Machine Translation:
“I think the possibility of a behind-the-scenes deal is practically zero.”
– Do you mean the return of Euro-NATO to the borders of 1997, according to the NATO-Russia Founding Act “On Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security”? If so, the Kremlin had no doubt about it.
Today, the United States is forced to “maneuver”, having to create a situation of “eternal check”, knowing perfectly well. that there will be no draw!
US Sanctions/NATO is ineffective against Russia, and the United States has another mechanism for “deterring” the Russian bear/NATO (today) is not. The war will bring down the USA, not Russia – the Russian Federation is Dominant on the continent!
I will note that the USA, soon a century, plays cards, China 35 centuries – in weiqi (Go), Russia 5 centuries – in cards, chess and Go, and since ancient times in the King of the mountain. )))
You see the process of forcing the United States to peace, Russia and China will force the United States:
to officially take responsibility for the fate of vassals:
to adopt a new system of strategic security (and stability), a new system of arms control (including in space and cyberspace), …
Otherwise, the Russian Federation withdraws from START No. c of the INF and Pindostan is guaranteed death!
PS A terminally ill person tied to a bed does not want euthanasia – he is afraid. But Putin said“ “To the morgue”” so to the morgue! – while they are driving, let him get hysterical, sick: screams, kicks, spits …
And finally
Russia became “Great” not due to the annexation of “Ukraine” (in 1651-1654 The left-bank Hetmanate of the Lesser Poland province of the Catholic Kingdom of Poland (Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth) asked for the protectorate of the Moscow Tsar Alexei Mikhailovich the Quietest – Romanov in the Grand Duchy of Moscow.
And when the Russian kingdom began to expand Siberia. So, your Brzezinski is a vulgar cheater who played marked cards on the “chessboard”.
Well, whores are like that…. the same Ukrainians.
More correct translation
“I think the possibility of a behind-the-scenes deal is practically zero”
– Do you mean the return of Euro-NATO to the borders of 1997, in accordance with the Russia-NATO Founding Act “On Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security”?
If so, then Russia had no doubts about it.
Today, the United States is forced to “maneuver”, creating a situation of “perpetual check”, understanding. that there will be no draw!
US/NATO sanctions against Russia are ineffective. And the US / NATO (today) does not have another mechanism / method of “containment” of the Russian bear.
The war will bring down the USA, not Russia – the Russian Federation dominates the Continent!
I note that the United States has been playing cards for almost a century, China has been playing weiqi (go) for 35 centuries, Russia has been playing cards, chess and go for 5 centuries, and has been playing king of the hill since ancient times.
I hope the comparison is clear
Today we are witnessing the process of forcing the United States to peace.
Russia and China will force the US:
formally take responsibility for the fate of the vassals:
adopt a New Strategic Security (and Stability) System and a New Arms Control System (including in space and cyberspace),…
Otherwise, the Russian Federation withdraws from START with the INF Treaty (or does not renew it) – and Pindostan is guaranteed to be fucked up!
And finally
Russia became “Great” not because of the accession to itself of the so-called. “Ukraine” (Ukraine – the territory of Great Russia and the Russian Empire – became under the Bolsheviks, becoming the Ukrainian Republic, which is part of the RSFSR, the former republic of the USSR).
Reference: In 1651-1654, the Left-Bank Hetmanate of the Lesser Poland province of the Catholic Kingdom of Poland (the Commonwealth) grew under the protectorate of Moscow Tsar Alexei Mikhailovich – into the Grand Duchy of Moscow.
So, Russia / Russia became “Great” not due to the accession of the so-called. “Ukraine”, but due to the annexation of Siberia.
Your vulgar Brzezinski is a cheating swindler who played marked cards on the “chessboard”.
“Your vulgar Brzezinski is a cheating swindler who played marked cards on the “chessboard”.
In respect of “the Soviet Union” and The Russian Federation, Mr. Brzezinski used the analyses and strategies of the Second Department of the Second Polish Republic during the period 1919 to 1935, and the analyses of a faction of the Polish Socialist party during the “First World War” when they formed the Polish legion under the leadership of Mr. Pilsudski – without Ukraine Russia is a land of lakes and forests refers – to act in conjunction with the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and presented them as his own.
In attempts to deflect blame in the “Who lost Russia” debate/internal witch hunt post 1998, in protection of his myths of attribution for encouraging “The Soviet Union” to invade Afghanistan , and in hope of the encouraging lets-move-onism, Mr. Brzezinski attempted a subsequent sleight of hand by evangelising the mantra “The United States of America” should preclude the association of Russia and China, largely a Mr. Mackinder production.
This had been in limited discussion in “the Soviet Union” through various branches of the Academies of Science on a co-operative basis from at least 1969 onwards,changing orientation with the Japanese zaibatsu represented by Mitsui and the Mitsubishi Foundation from 1973 onwards, the zaibatsu’s prime motivation being investigating opportunities of recycling the fiat currency including bonds which had been been substituted for gold in order to escape from/moderate their integration into the coercive social relations self-misrepresented as “The United States of America”, but this was officially put into suspended animation by the Politburo, partly as a function of “The Amur war” with China, and partly as a tool in facilitation of the believed detente with “The United States of America” on the bases of “spheres of influence”.
The Politburo attempted to change the orientations of various branches of the Academies of Science towards projects such as BAM with mixed results, the work of some the Academies of Sciences contributing to the subsequent co-operation with China in many spheres.
Consequently Mr. Brzezinski is thanked by some for his service in useful foolery to others.
Anthony Blinken should seize the opportunity Sergei Lavrov offers him. He should have an inkling of the fact that “empires” crumble at first slowly and then suddenly. It started a long time ago. We have been seeing it in the last years, both in the homeland as well as abroad. Things happen fast nowadays. America’s domination is of the moment, it does not count. What is behind the façade but a society that is driven by intemperate urge and lacking real knowledge? To delude oneself is not a good choice. One will lose friends. Blinken now has the opportunity of stabilizing world affairs and America’s standing by acting responsibly and in concert with the other great powers.
BREAKING: US govt asks Russia to keep the written response to Moscow’s demand on security guarantees —a secret, to not publish any contents of the US response – Washington Post citing leaked doc
“Is there a deal being prepared behind the scenes?”
RE: Posted by: Tom Hickey | Jan 21 2022 18:35 utc | 2
“Not to mention the strategic blunder — even worse than the invasion of Iraq — of driving Russia and China into an alliance, to which Iran is being added.”
Opportunists often seek attribution for things they did not do given that their target audiences are immersed to varying degrees in notions of exceptionalism upon which the social relations are based.
In some coercive social relations one protective mechanisms is resort to it-wasn’t-me-it-was-my-sister or them.
However in context resort to it-wasn’t-me-it-was-them would assign too much agency to Russia and China undermining their target audiences’ immersion in exceptionalism including their “own”.
Consequently as in the Who lost China witch hunt resort to it-wasn’t-me-it-was-my-sister/colleague was/is required.
The false narrative was fashioned in perparation by some in anticipation of the Who lost Russia witch hunt, since the activities of some “intelligence agencies” have been focused on their targets, including their target audiences immersed to varying degrees in notions of exceptionalism, the variations being facilitated by various precedents including but not limited to “I did not have sexual intercourse with that woman”.
this is good (Kedmi, in russian):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=naFHobxRSvU
Question: what does the US want from Russia, in order to make a deal?
—It seems likely the US wants to have Russia’s A-Ok, for the Ukrainian invasion of the LDNR, and possibly Crimea. This must have been the plan from the get go, from before the *ultimatum* until now, and there must be such inertia behind this *plot*, it can’t be easily abandoned— hence the curious and suggestive mnemonics noted above. I think that going back a month now to the initial proposals, we can look at it specifically in this light: article 3 only, which is summarized as: ‘’The US shall not invade the LDNR.’’ (or else). And the rest was a filler.
So now the question, assuming the above: why does the US want an invasion of LDNR? And what is plan B?
Do you believe there is any chance Russia might use a decapitation strike against the Nazi government in Ukraine?”
Transcendence is not facilitated by emulation, and the Russian Federation is not “The Soviet Union” which emulated their opponents periodically including in “decapitation” including in 1979 in Afghanistan, despite the advice of those preparing for the ongoing transcendence of “The Soviet Union”.
Mr. Bandera’s fate was facilitated by many parties not restricted to Mr. Sudoplatov and his associates.
Like Mr. Nemtsov, Mr. Bandera and Mr. Berezhovsky had become “inconveniences” to many, but unlike Mr Nemtsov, Mr. Bandera enjoyed the benefit of several states and organisations to effect his exit, whilst Mr. Berezhovsky understanding his fundamental loss of blat including the practice of “losing” to his former associate Mr. Abramovich, emulated a Roman Emperor, retired to his blath, did not open some dull opiate to the drains, but opened his veins.
Excellent analysis by Dmitri Simes in a last week’s interview with Vladimir Solovyov: (video is in Russian without captions, sorry):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdjtTM3jlD4
US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield:
https://qazet.az/en/article/us-considers-military-action-against-russia
The United States is considering military measures, in addition to economic ones, against Russia in the event of an escalation around Ukraine.
Qazet.az news reports that US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield said this, in an interview with the Moldovan television channel Jurnal TV.
Furthermore, Russia has brought into the theater its S-400 air defense missiles, which would enable it to enforce a ‘no fly zone’ over Ukraine at any time of its choosing, thereby denying access to the United States and other allied planes for delivery of further weapons or for performance of aerial reconnaissance.
So far not a single shot has been fired. There is heightened tension but no war. It is safe to assume that this line of psychological warfare is precisely the favored strategy of the Russian President to reach his objective of revising the European security architecture.
Already the fissures within Europe over how to respond to the Russian demands are deepening. In a lengthy address to the European Parliament meeting in Strasbourg, French President Emanuel Macron has spoken of the need for a Europeans-only approach to Russia on this question, showing more than a measure of skepticism if not contempt for the Biden administration. And German chancellor Scholz has tamed his inexperienced, loudmouth Greens Party foreign minister Annalena Baerbock and has himself taken the lead in parting company with the United States and fellow NATO members over how to deal with Moscow. Even the BBC reporting yesterday on the flights of British planes carrying military supplies to Ukraine showed the large arc by which they skirted German airspace, traveling instead to the north through Denmark to avoid conflict with the German government’s policy against sending arms to Ukraine under present conditions.
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/?fbclid=IwAR1X7zCMHjSoyBEzbKLycb6dEVQiPKj7JAq6UqNHufZX1G-G5IXXBaN_nLQ
US has asked any deal to be kept secret. Like in the Cuba crisis.
The key word is “angry”!
But the US could:
– do not answer;
– to answer in such a way that there is nothing to be humiliated in front of Russia;
– don’t date…
What a disgrace! – USA merge into the toilet… )))
There is another possible scenario here, albeit admittedly quite speculative.
1. Given that Russia-China is in a profoundly symbiotic alliance, seemingly unbreakable
2. If the current techno-fascist push towards totalitarianism is simply part of a Russia-China-GlobalCorporatistas attempt to dislodge the AngloZionist empire from it hegemonic (well, wanna be) throne, then the main nut to crack is the US after which all other developed western nations and satellites will fall into line.
3. Having some sort of highly confused and confusing conflict with Russia will further undermine the US’s international standing whilst further pushing the country into more dysfunctional hysteria and finger pointing.
4. Around the same time looks like we are having a globally engineered ‘supply chain’ crisis, aka ‘deliberately crashing the international trade flows into and out of the US’ imports from which are vital to the normal functioning of US society and absence of which will promote yet further dystopic dysfunction.
If most of the above is roughly correct, then the goal may simply be more demoralization of the current western order as part of a push to topple its democratic republic systems in preparation for their being replaced by some sort of technocratic ‘new normal’ type of governance that replaces current westphalian nation state structures with something more globally universal, basically turning current nation into the equivalent of States in a larger, and no doubt highly centralized, World Federation with its own World Federal Govt.
Certain European nations are hosting military equipment that Russia considers a threat. Why doesn’t Russia make sure the populations of these nations know that they might be vaporized if these threats are not removed?
USA officials don’t care about this. They don’t care much even about USA citizens. USA officials are just making fools of the Russians. Nobody cares about these legal fine points that Russians fret over. USA does whatever it wants. If Europe is not seriously shaken by news their nations are going to take strikes from Russian missle systems – maybe nukes – this proves their is no sense or future in talking to Europeans and/or Russia has no credability. In this unhappy case, Russia needs to say goodbye to Europe and USA forever. Work with China.
Norwegian
I agree with italian: Are you kidding ??
Europe has populations of hapless sheep totally controlled by their elites.
The vestern elites are our common enemies, not the ones defined by our corruptet Media.
Let’s take a look at the panic from the West. My feeling is all groups, including Russia, understand that direct military engagement will not happen. Case in point. In 2015 Turkey shot down a Russian SU-24 near its border with Syria. The events that followed flowed something like this.
1. Putin made statement to the affect that Russian considered the event an act of war and re-located military assets the next day.
2. The following day Erdogan publicly invoked the article of common defense.
3. The same day, maybe the next day, Stoltenberg stated that it was a dispute was between Turkey and Russia and NATO would not get involved.
4. A global shift followed along with the understanding that Russia is no longer playing games.
So, let’s put military engagements aside and get to what I believe is the real battle between Russia and the West. Consider the current US administration and prior administrations. All of the economic and military assistance packages, not to mention the Biden and NGO “side hustles”, were under some type of signed contact. Within those contracts, the territorial boundaries of Ukraine are mentioned. The International Court of Justice and other western courts defined territorial boundaries by 9 properties. Among which is “who controls the territory”. NATO does a good job keeping Serbia away from all of the 9 properties in Kosovo. There is a good example of how a country functions without legally defined territorial boundaries.
If even a small portion of Ukraine, were to be occupied by a foreign military, Ukraine would not longer be in a position to sign international agreements with the “side hustlers”. To continue the hustle, Ukraine will declare new territorial boundaries. I think (just my interpretation of the legalese) for the ICJ and the rest of Europe to recognize a new Ukraine, Russian needs to acknowledge the changes in writing. Would Russia ever do such a thing? So, in effect Ukraine will be closed for business until Russia says otherwise.
I agreed Biden probably wants Ukraine to be vaporized and the “side hustle” paper trail with it. Stoltenberg and other hustlers would like that outcome as well in my opinion.
No matter if, or how, Blinken responds to Putin in writing, Russia will have its arm on the pain lever for years to come.
WHO? Zbigniew Kazimierz Brzezinski
Was it not this Polish-Catholic swindler, Nazi, neo-fascist and Russophobe, a native of Soviet Kharkov, who advised the United States to send troops to Afghanistan (Operation Enduring Freedom)?
And the admission to NATO of the “hyena of Europe” (W. Churchill) of Poland and the Baltic limitrophes of Russia –
ex-republics of the USSR with a rotten Intermarium project, is that also him?
Well done – worthy of the Gold Star medal and the military title of Hero of Russia !!!
Also award the Joseph Robbinet Biden Jr. Medal for his 2013 speech at the Munich Conference, where he called the Western (amero-)) wars against Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan “major successes.” And they even declared them “models for future campaigns”!
These “powerful old men” are both heroes – Zbigniew and Josef, “The haberdasher and the cardinal, this is power!”.
LINK
PILSUDSKY’S AGREEMENT WITH HITLER, OR “USELESS MAN” HITLER
Signed on January 26, 1934, the “Pilsudski-Hitler Pact” became the first of the existing interstate agreements that paved the way for the Third Reich to a world war.
Piłsudski hoped to convince the Nazis to jointly resist Czechoslovakia and the USSR, but his support allowed the Third Reich to prepare for large-scale aggression, brought the catastrophe of Poland in 1939 and the pan-European tragedy of World War II, the enslavement of the country of Europe by Hitler and the attack on our Russia/USSR.
The rapprochement between Poland and Germany was caused primarily by the fierce hatred of the two dictators for Russia, the thirst for the seizure of our lands.
In 1935, Goering followed the body of the Polish leader Piłsudski in the front row. All German newspapers came out with condolences on the front pages. Völkischer Beobachter wrote: “New Germany bows her flags and standards before the coffin of this great statesman who for the first time showed the courage of open trust and complete alliance with the National Socialist Reich.”
Adolf Hitler declared national mourning in the Reich and sent a telegram to the Polish President:
“I am deeply touched by the news of the death of Marshal Pilsudski and express my sincere condolences to Your Excellency and the Polish government. Poland has lost the creator of her new country and her most faithful son in a marshal called to eternity. Together with the Polish people, we mourn the death of this great patriot, who, by his comprehensive cooperation with the Germans, did a great service not only to our countries, but also rendered invaluable help in calming Europe.”
Hitler to Pilsudski’s wife: “The sad news of the death of my husband, His Excellency Marshal Pilsudski, deeply hurt me. Dear Madam and her family, please accept the assurances of my deepest sympathy. I will forever preserve the image of the deceased in my grateful memory.
In addition, Hitler ordered a mass to be held in the Berlin Cathedral at Piłsudski’s symbolic coffin. After the funeral of the empty coffin, the fascist guard of honor paid military honors to the coffin. This was the last time Hitler participated in worship.
And when in 1939 the Germans occupied Krakow, where the grave of the leader Pilsudski was, the guard of honor was put up there first of all.
You write that Brzezinski is the new Pilsudski – I agree.
LINK
AFGHAN – BEGINNING
On June 8, 1979, in Vienna, the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the CPSU Brezhnev and US President Carter signed the second Strategic Arms Limitation Agreement (SALT-2). Which the US Congress has not ratified
In June 1979, US President Carter signed a secret directive on the creation of the Taliban terrorist organization (with the financial and material support of the Salafi-Wahhabi movements advocating the restoration of the Islamic Caliphate of Afghanistan: Jamaat-e Islami (JI), Jamiat-e Ulema- and Islam” (JUI), “Jamiat-e Ulema-i Pakistan”…)
On December 12, 1979, at a meeting of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the CPSU, a decision was made, formalized by a secret decree of the Central Committee of the CPSU No. 176/125 “For a position in” A “” to send troops to Afghanistan.
And already on December 13, 1979, a “Muslim” battalion in Afghan uniform arrived in Kabul with the relevant documents “to strengthen the protection of the palace of the head of state of the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan, the general secretary of the Central Committee of the PDPA and the chairman of the Revolutionary Council of Afghanistan, Hafizullah Amin.”
On December 27, 1979, on the armor and shoulders of a reinforced “Muslim” battalion, two groups of KGB special forces “Thunder” and “Zenith” will storm Amin’s palace. …
Oh, it was a glorious hunt!
PS Menachem Begin spoke very badly about Zbigniew’s ability to play chess – obscenely, but in Yiddish, in Polish and in Belarusian. )))
“Menachem Begin spoke very badly about Zbigniew’s ability to play chess – obscenely, but in Yiddish, in Polish and in Belarusian.”
Some are still of the belief that chess is a complex game which informs strategy and that being tri-lingual is very difficult to attain.
Some hold that Go is a more complex game than chess and informs strategy.
Some understand that the beliefs of others are vectors of opportunity/transcendence, and tend not to precisely criticise the beliefs of others, but derive and implement strategies using vectors of opportunity/transcendence – not normally an option for “The United States of America” as within these social relations attribution is often sought, even when they had no connections with that they seek attribution – a paraphrase of Mr. Stalin’s unheeded caution of “The Bolsheviks learned to talk, I learned to listen” as corroborated in conversation by both Mr. Kaganovich and Mr. Molotov refers.
Being born in Brest in 1913 Mr. Begin like many throughout the Pale of Settlement was multi-lingual/multi-cultural from childhood, although given to “emotionalism” including unwise tantrums thereby rendering him more likely to talk the talk, but not wisely walk the walk.
Mr. Brzezinski’s family also lived in the Pale of Settlement in Brzezany in the Ternopil region
but the family moved to Warsaw upon the creation of the Second Polish Republic where Mr. Zbigniew was born in 1928.
Mr. Zbigniew’s father Mr. Tadeusz Brzezinski was the Ambassador of the Second Polish Republic to Germany from 1931 until 1935 and helped to facilitate the Pilsudski Hitler Pact in 1934.
So how did a family from Brzezany in the Ternopil region make a journey from Brzezany via Warsaw to heading an Embassy in Berlin, which was second only to Washington in the hierarchy of postings for Ambassadors of the Second Polish Republic?
Before the inception of the Polish Second Republic in 1919, those who became active in the Polish legion and subsequently the Second Department of the Second Polish Republic a.k.a. Polish intelligence, implemented strategies exacerbating “ethnic/cultural” differences throughout the Pale of Settlement to undermine the Russian Empire, particularly in what became Galicia and Wolyn, adding to, and using as a tool of obfuscation, the anti-Jewish activities of the Russian Empire until 1917.
Included in these activities were the Brzezinski family.
Mr. Wilson and his associates in creating the Second Polish Republic in 1919 were informed of these pre-1917 activities partly through the efforts of the Polish political diaspora in “The United States of America”and hence the Polish Second Republic was created based on ethnic/cultural difference with minorities treaties/obligations – divide and rule with a cloak which almost all did not take out of the wardrobe, but kept in pristine condition as a reference point du jour.
Last week the Hungarian representatives were reminding NATO that Ukraine should be required to create and implement protection of minorities legislation – as are incorporated in the Minsk agreement before Ukraine could join NATO.
The efforts of Mr. Wilson and his associates encouraged the creation of OUN in Vienna in 1928, the increasing civil wars in the Second Polish Republic before 1939, the increasing association between OUN and the Third Reich, The Pilsudski Hitler Pact of 1934, the ascension of OZON after the death of Mr. Pilsudski, the complicity of the Second Polish Republic in the breakup of Czechoslovakia including the occupation/incorporation of the Teschen region, all facilitating The Second World War, but more destructively The Great Patriotic War including its extention until 1954 by way of the Rollback strategy of “The United States of America” in conjunction with the “United Kindgom” and the Gehlen networks.
“Eastern Europe” was/is a pregnant Pandora’s box of opportunities and vectors of transcendence – part of the reason that some in the “Soviet Union” lubricated the passage of the “near abroad” out of “The Soviet Union” to aid the ongoing transcendence of “The Soviet Union” by what is presently The Russian Federation.
It was understood from at least 1969 that curious children would try to prise this Pandora’s box open by slightly different methods than those that had been frustrated in 1944 and 1954.
In respect of Ukraine neither the efforts of the opponents in 2008 nor 2014 were unexpected, hence why the “United States of America” gained an albatross, one of the consequences of forgetting the salt and drinks whilst handing out plain bulkas – not restricted to Ukraine – whilst the Russian Federation gained a new member.
Present discussions are not restricted to Ukraine but encompass the paradox faced by Mr. Berezhovsky before he took his bath.
This forms part of the reason that “The United States of America” has asked The Russian Federation not to publish full details of discussions and any agreements, possibly in the belief that Russia was complicit in their own subjugation during the 1990’s after “we” won the Cold War, conveniently forgetting that the war never ended and it was never cold.
“You write that Brzezinski is the new Pilsudski “
You misunderstand.
Mr. Pilsudski was a practitioner and strategist.
Mr. Brzezinski was an insecure stranger in a stange land seeking to make his passage carrying symptoms of leukemia contracted from others, which those he advised subsequently contracted from 1966 onwards, possibly through sharing needles ?.
Mr. Zbigniew’s son Ian became the American Ambassador to Poland in the last week or so.
Apologies for the imprecision.
Some do not assign the same significance to others, that others seek assign to themselves.
Hence:
“Consequently Mr. Brzezinski (not only Zbignniew, but also Tadeusz and perhaps Ian ) is thanked by some for his service in useful foolery to others. “
“perhaps Ian”
Some do not assign the same significance to others, that others seek assign to themselves.
and so forget their names.
It likely should be Mark, named after a “saint” ?
Whilst others depend on their “copybooks”.
Hello.
As much as I would like to see a deal I just can’t see the Yanks doing it due to their own stubbornness, group-think and ‘we are the exceptional nation’ brain washing.
Win-win scenarios are anathema to them. The Empires way of thinking is that not only do they have to always ‘win’, but the other side (Russia in this case) always has to ‘lose’ and demonstratively so. They are incapable of stepping outside that mental and political box.
On top of that the Russo-phobic politics in D.C. automatically deems any sane talk of compromise or diplomacy as ‘appeasement’ and ‘treasonous’ which puts all rhetoric on a dangerous one-way ratchet upwards towards an explosion.
Every time there is a problem the American default mode is ‘double-down’. When that doesn’t work, they think it was just a ‘lack of commitment’ and decide to double-down yet again. Rinse and repeat over and over until it escalates to utterly insane levels hoping the other side will eventually back down and America ‘wins’.
Reading RT today I see that Biden is contemplating sending thousands of U.S. troops into Ukraine and neighbouring countries which shows what I said earlier about doubling down.
Their mind-set in 2022 is they will not compromise. They cannot admit/show that someone stood up to them and said no, and they cannot show that the Emperor no longer has any clothes. They MUST win at all costs – logic and consequences be damned.
I wonder if the Europeans ever reflect on the cavalier attitude of Washington about starting a war in Europe? They seem too afraid to stand up and say ‘no’ to stop the U.S. from starting a major war in their neighborhood that will set their continental home ablaze.
I hope Russia and China have completely thought through all these scenarios from a ‘A’ to ‘Z’ as I’m afraid that the Biden / Deep State Borg will find a hundred ways to weasel out of the security guarantee and just keep on doubling down until eventually one stray bullet starts WW3.
“scenarios from a ‘A’ to ‘Z’ ”
Why limit yourself to linear frames within which your opponents are enmazed?
” I’m afraid that the Biden / Deep State Borg will find a hundred ways to weasel out of the security guarantee and just keep on doubling down until eventually one stray bullet starts WW3.”
Why emulate your opponent instead of transcending your opponent?
Why assign the same significance to your opponent that your opponent seek to assign to themselves ?
(the use of the singular and the plural in respect of opponent is by design not default.)
“Every time there is a problem the American default mode is ‘double-down’. When that doesn’t work, they think it was just a ‘lack of commitment’ and decide to double-down yet again. Rinse and repeat over and over until it escalates to utterly insane levels hoping the other side will eventually back down and America ‘wins’.”
That is a consequence/function of their purpose and facility which includes, but is not limited to a failsafe brake to limit backward movement as a minimum facilitator of sustainability.
However from the late 1960’s onwards when parked on some hills the failsafe brake did not work, and the engine started to go backwards at increasing speed, this required the alchemy of turning gold into fiat to dampen the speed for a while which was aided in time by offshoring parts of the economy.
That is a component of why the matter is not restricted to Ukraine and the choice of hopes which “The United States of America” attempt to misrepresent as “strategies” are limited in an interactive contexts, why “The United States of America” has asked The Russian Federation not to publish details of discussions and agreements, and why the increasing noise/signal ratio of theatrics in respect to Ukraine that the “Ukrainians” are asking to turn down the volume.
“I wonder if the Europeans ever reflect on the cavalier attitude of Washington about starting a war in Europe? They seem too afraid to stand up and say ‘no’ to stop the U.S. from starting a major war in their neighborhood that will set their continental home ablaze.”
As Mr. Schrodinger observed phenomena do not require to be seen to exist, whilst a hypothetical cat may be considered simultaneously both alive and dead as a result of its fate being linked to a random subatomic event that may or may not occur.
“The United States of America” understands, as do their interlocutors, that resort to the things-that-go-bang war derivative will place outcomes in the linear spectrum from breaking the failsafe brake to ending sustainability.
As outlined in a separate thread about a month ago, the best hope to achieve the sustainability of “The United States of America” with benefit of failsafe break, is to create a spectacle of potential events/intents that they understand are unlikely to happen, including but not limited to the “invasion” of Ukraine by the Russian Federation, and then seek attribution for the frustration of things that were unlikely to happen when they don’t happen, which to assuage the fears encouraged by the theatrics others will likely – the Mr. Chamberlain routine updated by incorporation of the gold into fiat routine, “The United States of America” made the “Soviet Union” invade Afghanistan in 1979, “We won the Cold War”, the cold war was cold but ended, in the hope of facilitating see like Mr. Tsun Tsu we are exceptional, we won a war without fighting it – you can trust us routine.
The target focus is those immersed in the coercive social relations self-misrepresented as “The United States of America” plus anyone else who may be naïve enough to conflate reality with theatrics by living towards the edges of the bandwith, and require the good guys in the white hats to protect them from falling off the edge.
The lacunae include but are not restricted to the sole agency derivative of exceptionalism, that the benefits of dumbing down accrue solely to the would like to be dumbing down initiators.
Mr. Ritter in the article linked below outlines some components of the above, whilst retaining a notion that The Russian Federation will invade Ukraine, which some in “The United States of America” with better reception don’t want, and hence Mr. Biden’s oscillating practices/statements in matters “Ukrainian”.
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/01/22/ukraine-crisis-us-toolboxes-are-empty/
This is understandable given Mr. Ritter’s socialisation and his professional expertise being derived primarily, but not exclusively, from analyses derived through certain methodologies.
Over-extensions of facilities are always disadvantageous to some degree – the Battle of Moscow 1941/42 refers, whilst analysts and strategists are assigned different names for reasons.