I sat down and listened to the full four hours of the infamous “Shuster Live” show of September 4th. This was not easy (if only because to a Russian ear Ukrainian sounds roughly like Klingon to a English speaker. Except that Ukrainian is really easy to understand, as it is basically a mix of rural Russian, Polish and some old Slavic words). But it was also very interesting (if you understand Russian, or Klingon-Russian, you can watch the full show here). For one thing, my personal Ukronazi favorite – Oleg Liashko – was invited. I also had the opportunity to listen to the bona fide Nazi Oleg Tiagnibok (the leader of the “Freedom” party). The topic was what happened during the protests, who was responsible for the grenade attack and whether or not the Rada has the right to change the Ukrainian constitution.
Very interesting stuff.
Oleg Tiagnibok and Oleg Liashko
There were also supporters of Poroshenko invited. It was quite amazing to see the contrast between them and the “Ukronazi opposition” (i.e. Liashko, Tiagnibok & Co.). While the supporters of the current Adminisration looked extremely defensive and uncomfortable, both Tiagnibok and Liashko looked moved by a sincere sense of outrage. They were confident, very articulate and, in their own way, logical. Now, please do not construe what I just said as an endorsement. Hitler was also confident, articulate and logical his own way. All I am saying is that while all these politicians have very low ratings of popular support, the Urkonazi opposition looks far more credible than the Poroshenko fanboys. Again, the SS was clearly far more credible than the SA, but to state that does not imply an endorsement of either one.
One of the arguments put forth by the Ukronazi opposition is this: considering that the Rada’s support right now is in the single digits, this body has no right whatsoever to reform the Constitution of the country. Furthermore, if the Donbass is to get any kind of special status, it ought to be approved in a popular referendum. A very nice and “democratic” idea for sure.
Except that all the changes resulting from the implementation of the Minsk-2 Agreement (M2A) must be negotiated with the representatives of the Donbass
Except that no such negotiations took place. In fact, the junta has specifically rejected any such negotiations.
Except that the deadline for the implementation of M2A is the end of 2015.
Except that M2A was ratified by the UN Security Council and is now mandatory for the Ukraine.
[Sidebar: In other words, the delaying tactics used by Poroshenko are, in fact, having a fatal impact upon M2A and the Ukraine will soon be in material breach of a UN Security Council resolution.
What would that mean practically? Well, since Uncle Sam has his veto power over any UNSC resolution, there is no danger from any consequences for the junta in power, at least not coming from the UNSC. However, and this is important, there are two major consequences which will result from such a situation:
1) Russia would legally keep the control of the Russian-Ukrainian border (M2A foresees that Russia would relinquish the control of that border only after all the other terms of the M2A are fully implemented; M2A is not a list, it is a sequence)
2) Russia could declare that M2A has officially failed due to the refusal of the junta to abide by its terms. At this point in time, Russia would have all the options on the table, including a possible recognition of the Lugansk and Donetsk Republics (although there would be problems with that considering that the actual territory of these republics has not been defined yet) and moving in peacekeepers, possibly as part of a SCO operation].
My gut feeling is that the grenade tossing in Kiev was a carefully set up false flag and that the Poroshenko people (i.e. the USA) are really behind it. The purpose is to make those who oppose the (even partial) implementation of M2A as violent terrorists. And since Poroshenko obviously has no desire to really abide by the terms of M2A, I can only conclude that the current crisis is not triggered by the pseudo-implementation of M2A but by the desire of both sides to use M2A as a pretext to get rid of the other. It was quite amazing to see Avakov, the Minister of Internal Affairs, immediately blame the Freedom Party and Oleg Tiagnibok even though no investigation had been completed (it reminded me of how the US immediately blamed Osama Bin Laden on 911). Oleg Liashko and his Radical Party correctly read the writing on the wall and immediately left the coalition in power and joined the opposition.
Poroshenko is now in a very difficult situation. The Radicals have left him and Yulia Timoshenko is now openly saying that she could replace Iatseniuk (“our man Iats”). She also sided with the Freedom Party against Avakov and Iatseniuk. As for Iatseniuk – he is hated by everybody except the US Embassy and his future appears to be very gloomy at best.
Last, but most definitely not least, our friend Saakashvili, the current governor of Odessa, publicly went on air to declare that he had been lied to by everybody and that the regime is corrupt and run by oligarchs! Considering that it was Poroshenko who appointed Saakashvili to replace Igor Palitsa – the man who organized the Odessa Massacre and who used to be “Kolomoiski’s man in Odessa” – it is rather strange (if immensely gratifying) to see Saakashvili now turn against the regime.
My sense is that things are now becoming extremely dangerous for the junta. While Poroshenko did succeed in wrestling Odessa away from Kolomoiski (at least officially), Saakashvili has now turned against him while Kolomoiskii is now free to run his huge empire, including Privat Bank and the various death squads Privat Bank pays for, in any way he sees fit.
Could it be that the Uncle Sam is losing his grip over the Ukraine?
Here is what I see: First, who were the main “our SOBs” in the Ukraine? It’s a long list for sure, but I would include the following at the top: Iatseniuk, Poroshenko, Avakov, Turchinov, Nalivaichenko. The last one has already been given the boot, and the four other are now in deep trouble. At this moment in time it appears that the following figures are all in support of regime change: Tiagnibok, Timoshenko, Liashko, Kolomoiski, Iarosh and, apparently, Saakashvili. Add to this that none of these figures appear to have any real popular support, and you get a very unstable dynamic and a real potential for regime change.
It could even be that for the USA regime change might be a desirable option. If the US has concluded that the current team of “our SOBs” has failed and is unable to get anything done, then getting some real crazies in power might be a good option as it would most definitely result in even more chaos and violence, all of which can then be used either as a pretext to intervene directly or indirectly or, alternatively, to be presented as a rationale to “protect Europe” from the chaos in the East. If you think Libya and Syria can generate a lot of refugees, wait until 42’000’000+ Ukrainians start running from the latest “success” of “democracy”!
It is too early to make any predictions yet, if only because the situation is very unstable. But listening to Tiagnibok and Liashko I get the feeling that these guys are not just going to pack and leave for Israel or the USA. They are going to stay and fight. And in a fight between, basically, non-entitites like Poroshenko, Turchinov, Avakov and Iatseniuk on one side and strong personalities like Tiagnibok, Liashko, Iarosh, Timoshenko and Kolomoiskii on the other – my money is definitely on the 2nd group.
The next few months are going to be very, very interesting.
The Saker
Yeah,
artificial no-nation,
country which indeed does not exist,
language just compiled of the neighboring…
Politicians who do not deserve to breathe.
The nazi black hole of Europe.
The pattern is being repeated as with Iraq. If within a short time-frame the US of Arrrghh is unable to set up a sustainable “occupied state” it immediately moves the “failed state” scenario – basically screwing up “occupied state” so that nobody has any use of it.
So I agree – an interesting autumn-winter ahead of us.
Not too long ago, this blog cited a poll showing that Ukrainian public opinion favors Putin, which I think means that most Ukrainians want an orientation toward Russia. In that case all of these politicians are unrepresentative.
And if I were Ukrainian, I would certainly feel the U.S. & friends had really messed up my country.
Wrong. Ukros (minus the breakaway regions) sincerely enjoy being thoroughly sodomized by ‘European values’. Corollary question: Can one really blame Western imperialism for taking due advantage of its most die-hard, devout bootlickers? The Zionazis can trash this silly joke of a country knowing full well that the Ukro-trash will, if upset at all, vent their anger “elsewhere”, so to speak.
Yep,
Ukraine has been thrown under the bus by its masters in Baghdad-on-the-Potomac…
I prefer ‘Mordor-on-the-Potomac’.
My primary argument against the idea of a Russian military move against Kyiv is, the current regime there has been doing a nice enough job of destroying itself without the need for a grandiose show of power from which much hay will be made by Western Propaganda Corps. They make enough stuff up already, so they don’t need more. Taking on Donetsk/ Lugnask in the same way that Crimea was “annexed” didn’t happen because the people there were not yet ready. Mood may have changed considerably in light of the way Kyiv has worked to “win hearts and minds” with reforms from the barrel of a howitzer. A public referendum in that part of Ukraine could reveal the shift in mood to be majority favorable, since they know nothing good (for them) will ever come from Kiev any time soon, and if Tymashenko comes to power, none may survive it. the Dark Empire of the Potomac has a limited number of Orks to put into play, and most are occupied with destabilzation of the Middle East, so only token Ork support in Ukraine for now. Once Assad is out of the way, the DEoP will have “more flexibility.” Waiting to see if, the imaginary Russian expeditionary force in Syria will make any difference, and…what if they win? Laugh if you will at the question, but in this RPG it’s not what is, but what they put their reports and speeches.
Today’s Ukronazis — hardcore or otherwise — are characterized first and foremost by the most salient features of Eastern European Fascism: total Russophobia and total ecstatic grovelling before Western imperialism and Zionism. Of course, Tiagnibok and Liashko would be elated to the n:th degree wildly drooling non-stop were they instructed to try what Saakashvili tried back in 2008, but absent such instructions the “hardcore” Ukronazis will remain committed to in-fighting while their beloved Fatherland disintegrates as per Anglo-Zionist diktat.
As everybody knows, the Ukros are fervent admirers of the adorable European Union. They will be more than happy to provide the latter with their skills in toilet cleaning, petty crime, commodified sex, and anti-Russian agit-prop.
Thank you Saker.
Unreal that the govt has been able to hold on as long as it has.
What do you make of this? http://www.therussophile.org/assassination-attempt-on-interior-minister-avakov-by-volunteer-battalion-commander-folded-in-ukraine.html/
Let’s hope these psychopaths start their fireworks against each other soon.
And, what of the oh-so-quiet Andriy Yevhenovych Biletsky manoeuvring behind the scenes with the most powerful of all the Kiev regime private armies, the Azov Battalion, or is it a brigade now, which he commands, and which is receiving the most professional and assiduous attention from Empire trainers and suppliers? Is he under, beside, above, or even independent of, Kolomoiskii? Does he have Saakashvili in his corner now? I doubt that Saakashvili would place his fate in the hands of lightweights such as Tiagnibok, Timoshenko, Liashko, or Iarosh. Just when will Biletsky emerge from the shadows to assume his manifest destiny as der Führer des Großukrainisch Reiches? Only the Shadow knows!
I’ve heard he gets money from Kolomoisky.But like I tried to explain in a previous post.Biletsky is different from the others.He is a “true believer”,a full-fledged Bandera nazi.Yarosh,while a nazi,will deal with anyone,its power he wants no matter who he supports to get it.Tiangibok while a fascist is trying to “normalize” his fascism into something the EU will accept. Biletsky though,wants a European “Brown Revolution”,not just power.He will deal with “Jews”, oligarchs,and EU “democrats” as long as they can help him.But as soon as he gets power,its “off with their heads”.Reading his ideas reminds me of Hitler in the 1930’s.I think since the old “Bandera” people died.He is the nearest to the true nazi Ukraine has produced.And considering the groups they’ve produced,that is saying a lot.
https://youtu.be/AT4zU2iYFiINext small terrorist in the germany
Sorry off the topic:
immigrants know what for are they heading to Europe,
to behead…
That kid is going viral.
The West went to far this time with their ‘refugee’ sting.
Whole lot of eastern Euro-Peons instantly cured from the EU virus.
Time for these weasels to start killing one another. No more fistfights.
Let their blood flow in the streets of Kiev.
What scum.
Obombi was whacking the drums of war like a fiend on meth, back in the day, ready to bomb Syria back to the stone age, and then, suddenly, he did not…
Poroshenko amassed 100K troops to storm the Donbass area, along the fluctuating borders of neverland, and then, suddenly, they did not storm anywhere…
Who is this person, who knows where to find the west’s osmotic pressure points?
Who is this person, who knows how to halt FUKUS’ madness?
Yes, the same man MSM tries to grind to dust, headline after headline. The same man every single agency despises. The same man nobody saw coming and nobody will see leaving.
You and I both know who I’m talking about.
Mankind, currently, can’t muster enough courage to do him just for now, but, over time, history will.
Nice comment, Daniel. Very nicely put. He would chuckle to read it, I suspect.
The Exceptionalists are cowards, really, really, happy to kill for ‘Freedom’, but really, really, unwilling to die for it. They are very good at terrorising weak, impoverished, defenceless states, and just love genocide. It gives them a perverted sense of being in control of Death, which they fear greatly. All Putin needed to do was decry them bravely, starting at the famous Munich speech, and righteously criticise their evil doctrine of Exceptionalism, which drove them to impotent fury. Putin and Russia cannot be pushed around, which is dangerous, because the Exceptionals are quite capable of a catastrophic miscalculation, which Ukraine or Syria may prove to be, because they know that once their capacity to terrorise and destroy is gone, their power and privilege will quickly crumble. This, of course, is why they fear and hate China, too. The Exceptionals do not entertain treating non-Exceptionals as equals, anywhere, ever.
“The Exceptionals do not entertain treating non-Exceptionals as equals, anywhere, ever.”
Exceptionalism, sometimes known as collective narcissism, is a form of blindness to be welcomed.
Logically “exceptionalists” can never be equal, nor can they be perceptually or practically equal given that main components of the present socio-economic system’s ideology and practices are predicated on notions of “individualism”.
The key process of transcendence are the lateral trajectories from “exceptionalism” to equal and different.
Exceptionalism is a useful vector to facilitate lateral challenge, such as those posed in :
Anonymous on September 17, 2015 · at 12:52 pm UTC below.
With the exception of the addition of inverted commas ” ” to the second last word “surprising”, this broadcast of September 17th 2015 at 12:52 UTC is a verbatim copy of a broadcast made on February 20th 2015 at 09:58 UTC.
The purpose was to offer the option of testing the hypotheses posed using “surprises” occuring within the period from February 20th 2015 to September 17th 2015 inclusive, although 209 days is a limited evaluation horizon.
In small illustration :
http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/32823-are-neocons-an-existential-threat
So eloquent..
I just hope he doesn’t invest in a cape and leotard…:)
Very well put.
He is the man who deserved a nobel peace prize for the swift resolution of what would have been a dreadful crisis in Crimea.
and no – not Strelkov :)
Oh most of the world outside the Western Orbit know his name! A cheer when they hear it. Louder than when the POPE arrives.
RR
Well, there are obvious USA paths to resolving problems in Kiev.
First, implement a no-fly zone (yes, I know it doesn’t make sense).
Second, a surge of US polticos smiling while handing out cookies (yes, I know it doesn’t make sense).
Pass the popcorn !!
Yes, very very interesting which may cleanse anther few millions of Russian Ukrainians to Russia and Germany. Deeply tragic.Far worse that Hitler. And is just what the USA has wanted all along. They do not like Europeans of any kind.
I think you underestimate the American die-hard infatuation with Yulia. There are some analysts who believe this Euromaidan was a do-over of the Orange Revolution designed to reinstall Yulia, this time as president, and Yatseniuk, as before, as the auctioneer to sell the country’s assets.
The coup was not against Yanukovich. He was gone. The EU had negotiated his resignation and early elections. According to the Constitution he would be replaced by Klitschko, leader of the opposition. The coup was against that outcome. The fix was in with Yatseniuk. Who knew what Klitschko might do? Or the electorate?
Saakashvili is sounding to me like a potential candidate running up trial balloons. Does he also have his die-hard American clique looking for a do-over?
Incidentally, I believe it was all about Crimea. I think the last 25 years have been about Crimea. If the U.S. could vanquish Russia from the Black Sea and Crimea, she would be land-locked when the sea ice came in. Beyond the military implications, this would finish Russia as a major trading nation. At Ukraine’s secession, Russia’s continued possession and control of her assets that were on Ukrainian soil were guaranteed by 25-year leases. (What were they thinking?) A more tangible guarantee was the right to station 20,000 Russia soldiers at their Crimean bases. The clear spirit of the agreement is that Russia not only had the legal right to control of her Ukrainian-based assets, but the right to defend them militarily if necessary.
The Orange group were not intending to renew those leases. Yanukovich gets in after some desperate effort and renews them in 2010, way ahead of the due date. Yanukovich gets chased out and Yats announces, the first time he shows his face, that they will abrogate the leases.
“GO!”
Prior to the coup, Russia was preparing to relinquish the naval base at Sevastopol. The new base for the Black Sea Fleet was to be Novorossiysk. The submarine fleet had already been moved there, but it takes time to build up the the size of base necessary for the whole fleet. All that new high-speed transportation network into Krasnodar Krai wasn’t just for a one-off Olympics. It looks like the Empire made a serious misstep, when it tried to pre-empt that gradual process, and freaked out the Crimean population with the threat of a neo-Nazi, barbarian-horde invasion. That has saved Russia multi-billions in further development of Novorossiysk, money that can now be put into Crimean economic development to make it a showcase to the world, an oasis of peace and prosperity beside the poverty, pestilence and putschist pandemonium in Banderastan.
Yes, very very interesting which may cleanse anther few millions of Russian Ukrainians to Russia and Germany. Deeply tragic.Far worse that Hitler. And is just what the USA has wanted all along. They do not like Europeans of any kind.No wonder the Netherlands’ native Nazis were never cleansed as they were in Germany!To be useful later. No wonder the US soldiers never left Netherlands. Holland was to be the small iconic and key funnel to pour American, British and German controls to cover all the rest of Europe, trash the Euro and remove all European Laws. Helpful NATO to bring in the criminal monopolies of US Corporations to minimise Europe manufacture and trade. The laws protecting EU civilians gutted as if by accident. The US/EU/Israeli wars of choice with US owned EU NATO doing all the ‘heavy’ lifting as the US plotted the moves they were to make. 80 million war refugees flooding Europe to find peace, completely changing the Europe the US always intended to bring down. Almost done. seeing how Greece has to fight almost alone to survive the Geramns for the third time in one hundred years, the EU may already be over. Obama has many one percenters who will joyous.
And if and when Ukraine collapses into chaos and confusion and the time comes for calling out all responsible, let them remember the diasporic double agents, such as the Ukrainian Congress of Canada, not to mention the government of Canada and all of its parliamentary parties, the same that voted unanimously for a Canadian general to lead NATO’s back-to-the-stone-age bombing of Libya, and that since Maidan have been marching lockstep with Kiev’s Nazi oligarchy supplying it with ‘humanitarian aid’ and lent it almost a billion dollars. Not that you’ll ever read a critical word in the Canadian press for whom the ‘Revolution of Dignity’ never stopped but only continues its eternal struggle against the evil Russian bear. Sure hope those Canadian Forces ‘trainers’ are out of harm’s way if the shit begins to fly.
> the Ukraine will soon be in material breach of a UN Security Council resolution
That’s very smart tactics, the reason one must understand why Putin ran/continues to run for M2A.
On the other hand: How many resolutions were already completely ignored and breached by Israhell?
Whatever, in 100 years we all will probably be dead anyway.
Cassandra: you make some very good points… yulia has always had amazing press here in NA. I think they may have had to go with a back-up plan at the time of the coup because at that time her actual words were so rabid there was no way the spin doctors could fix it.
There is one observation/prediction however that should be repeated. It was first made by commentators that frequented these pages a year and a half ago. The deeper Ukraine sinks into economic failure, the stronger the appeal of fascist ideology and the more likely a profoundly fascist state will emerge. Should such a thing happen there is no limit to the amount of grief such a AZ manipulated force could cause to its’ own people, the EU and Russia
Joaquin Flores explored a possible scenario back in about April. (I can’t find it at his Syncretic Studies site, it was probably published at Fort Russ.) He conjectured that US might support Right Sector in overthrowing Poroshenko, in order to bring a clear “Nazi Regime” to power – all this as a cause for UN-sponsored peacekeepers. A peacekeeping operation of such a kind would include the US and form the perfect cover for NATO and Gladio-style elements to wreak havoc in the country.
This was just one possible scenario. But I note how strongly Russia has resisted all notion of peacekeepers.
Well, Right Sector hasn’t worked out that well as a power grabber, perhaps. But from what you write, Saker, these interesting next few months could boil down to a struggle over whose peacekeepers go into Ukraine, SCO’s or NATO’s. I have no doubt the Russians will win this struggle, as with all the others. Minsk 2 loads the dice too strongly in favor of this side.
it may be in a few years time that Poroshenko will be classified as a war criminal, as BUSH and BLAIR are today, although in many cases justice is not always administered until they dead or nearly dying.
Joaquin Flores has posited that the US mode of control in the Ukrainian case is done through 3 main axes:
a) The good, enlightened, democratic, pro-market, pro-Western liberals. The kind of people that the audiences back in Europe and the US want to see. This faction includes Yatseniuk, Poroshenko and maybe also Klitchko.
b) The radical nationalists, or the xenophobic right. People like Tyahnibok and his Svaboda people. The people that have roots in fascism, but are not overtly acting like it. People that the western audience could identify as similar to the far-right parties found in the EU countries.
c) The batshit crazy Nazis such as the Pravy Sektor. People like Yarosh etc… People who have supposedly been galvanized through their struggle against the previous “regime”. People who have been radicalized by fighting against Russian aggression, and people who inadvertently, the West help create by not supporting Ukraine enough against the evil Russian bear.
All these three axes, are more or less under the control, or at least the manipulative capabilities of their US masters, and at every turn of the crisis can be mobilized in such ways so as to push developments into a result that the US Empire deems desirable.
That is not to say that the US puppeteers control everything and everyone, but this is the template for their modus operandi in recently acquired colonies.
A similar mechanism was utilized in the Middle East. Again, three axes of manipulation, three types of US proxies:
a) The Arab Spring/liberals/moderate rebels, who fight against oppressive and autocratic regimes such as those of Gadaffi and Assad etc etc etc…
b) The radicalized Islamists. Through the heroic but ultimately doomed fight for democracy in the Middle East, elements of moderate Islamism emerge, as was always more or less inevitable. Even though this is a relative setback for “democracy” and the West, these people are still preferable than autocrats and brutal dictators (such as Assad) and also a bulwark and preferable to:
c) The absolute lunatics and sociopaths and mass-murderers of ISIS! Because of the evil Assad (as also the evil Putin) some fighters and elements of the opposition turn completely insane and genocidal. A power so vicious that we must definitely wage war against at some stage, and is largely the fault of evil dictators such as Putin and Assad who will just cling to power no matter what.
So, to sum up:
EuroMaidan = Arab Spring
Svobada/Radical Party = Al Nusra
Pravy Sektor = ISIS
Again, I am not saying that the Imperialists control everything and everyone. But this is the trilateral axis on which CIA propaganda and strategy relies.
Dear The Saker,
Thank you for your thoughts. I agree the next few months will be interesting in Ukraine. The failure of Porkie to adhere to a UNSC approved M2A & how Russia reacts will be interesting.
Sadly the utter arrogance of the US, its imbeciles particularly Nuland and Pyatt, will likely lead to more chaos as they cannot accept failure and would rather have a failed state. Remember F*** the EU!
As you say the Saker forget the refugee crisis now – imagine the 42mil Ukranians right in the EU. There will be no need for visa free travel!
Rgds,
Veritas
Apologies for this particular post being off-topic, but as it relates to the global energy sector, an issue of primary importance for Russia, I decided to return to it. At the end of my post, I will provide some links that back-up all of my claims.
As I have noted in countless posts since 2014, the fall in the oil price will only harm Russia in the short-run.
In the medium to long-run it will harm the energy production of western nations. This is so for a very simple reason: Russia’s oil and gas production is not marginal. In matter of fact, Russia’s oil & gas production is one of the most efficient in the world. Russia’s cost of oil extraction is only slightly higher than KSA’s and her natural gas output is cheaper than even Qatar’s.
At the other end of the spectrum, oil & gas production in western countries is extremely costly. The costliest of all is that found in Canada with their tar sands. The problem is not only that tar sands production is extremely expensive for the full production cycle, but also that Canadian Select (the type of oil produced by Canada) and bitumen (the type of raw material that is then processed into oil) trade at a massive discount to global oil benchmarks such as WTI and Brent. Then you have the shale oil production of the USA, which has only been possible when at least four conditions were met:
a) Zero Interest Rate Policy (aka ZIRP) plus QE by the US Federal Reserve.
b) A WTI price around $100/bbl.
c) Crude at a discount from Canada.
d) Duped stock-market investors.
As some of those factors are now out of the picture, the future for US oil production is quite grim. US oil production has already begun a quite steep decline. More than half a million bbl/day has already disappeared from the recent peak earlier this year.
Moreover, oil production in some other areas, while not as expensive as that of shale and tar sands, is still way higher than Russia’s. I refer of course to North Sea oil production by Norway and the UK (a few other countries as well) Shale/tar sands production requires a price for WTI to be at least $70/bbl and up to $110 for them to have any hope of breaking even. In the case of the North Sea, you need prices of around $50 to break even (and remember, no capitalist bothers to produce so that he can break-even)
Something similar is also the case in other offshore production sites, such as the Gulf of Mexico, offshore Brazil and offshore Western Africa (the first and third of those places are dominated by western oil majors)
Basically, the entire western oil sector is currently going through real hell.
Now, don’t get me wrong, nothing of this means that their entire oil and gas sectors will soon go under, or that their entire production will shut-in. But it means that part of that production will definitely go off-line in the coming months, or maybe even a couple of years. Also, remember that western economies are much more capital rich than Russia and can endure losses for some time, but only for some time. It’s only a matter of time for the least efficient of these producers to go bust.
At the same time, Russia, despite her relative capital scarcity compared with the West, and the sectoral sanctions imposed on her by the AZ Empire is still managing to keep production going and even increase it somewhat (around 1%) Moreover, Rosneft, the biggest Russian oil producer has massively increased drilling this year and expects substantial increases in production through 2016, presumably against a background of increasing prices since there will be increasing demand along with decreasing production from North America and possible other places as well.
What this all means, is that the West (and the West’s Gulf-state puppets) has far less leverage over Russia than they would like to think. Moreover, the coming implosion of North American oil production will demonstrate to the everyone that the axis of the western MSM, politicians and business leaders are nothing but frauds and liars and cannot be taken seriously. Also, the energy security weakness of the West will also be revealed to the eyes of the world. This is nothing but good news for Russia (and Iran)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-07/move-over-exxon-russian-drillers-are-oil-world-s-top-performers
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-13/rosneft-bucks-world-trend-to-boost-oil-drilling-amid-price-slump
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Shale-Delusion-Why-The-Partys-Over-For-US-Tight-Oil.html
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Biggest-Red-Herring-In-US-Shale.html
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Iran-Enjoys-Increased-Oil-Exports-US-Shale-Plays-Face-Structural-Decline.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/15/us-oil-shale-rigs-idUSKCN0RF01T20150915
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Low-Oil-Prices-Throw-North-Sea-Oil-Into-A-State-Of-Crisis.html
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/10/drilling-outlook-idUSL5N0RB23320140910
The fact that even the western MSM have now begun to openly discuss the plight of their oil & gas producers is indicative of the gravity of the situation and of the developments we are bound to witness in the coming months and years. Now, will the AZ Empire attempt a strategic retreat in the face of stern opposition from Russia, China and Iran, or will they try something even more brutal and inhumane than what they have already been doing? This is the question.
Also:
http://oilsandstruth.org/canada-losing-30-bn-year-tarsands-oil
And also, a rare moment of partial honesty from MSM about Russia’s true energy potential. In my view, this guy is still understating it considerably:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2015/03/25/how-much-energy-does-russia-have-anyways/
“Apologies for this particular post being off-topic”
Why do you believe that your post is off topic?
“Apologies for this particular post being off-topic”
The binary notions of on/off topic obscures connections and lateral opportunities.
It appears that these notions “inform” many of the opponents practices.
50,000 Canadian workers laid off in tar sands-20,000 more expected soon. A great many Canadian’s want this black eye shut down period. They cut down Boreal forest and let the trees rot don’t even use the lumber. and the water they use for FREE to sit in leaky tailing ponds. After 50 years of conservative rule the people finally elected a left government. Harper is trying to blame them for Canada’s recession. The only G8 country in recession. If anyone recalls during 2008 Harper was bragging about Canadian Banks being soundest in the world. Only after he bought up all their sub prime mortgages through our own Fanny Mae….so we the people end up holding the bag. And when you talk to most Canadian’s oh I am not interested in politics…..while the food is being stolen out of the mouths of their Children and they take out a second mortgage to send their kids to University since “education” is the answer to upward mobility in Liberal Democracies-once their they are totally head f**ked with gender studies…….Post modernism and any actually what are forms of reaction and idealism…… And of course a big bill and useless piece of paper in what should have been the most brain growth section of their lives…. Having families is post poned, buying houses are postponed, all to pay for a useless piece of paper that serves the interests of the empire only. Just look at the Obama administration if you want to see the results of a western liberal education. NONE Thinkers who don’t understand the purpose of language is to communicate and that in order to communicate that language must be congruent with reality-it does not determine the reality the way THEY believe it does. Sooner or later this reality interrupts the narrative and then overnight everything they said changes…….to some other narrative.
“the SS was clearly far more credible than the SA”
…especially after June 1934, when the SA were all dead.
“especially after June 1934, when the SA were all dead.”
Historically incorrect – the SA were not all dead after June 1934.
Unless misrepresentation and/or pontification are included in the purpose, it is normally held that a level of “correctness” is to be encouraged.
True they weren’t all dead (just many of their leaders and most rebellious members).But instead they were curbed and put on a leash.With leaders totally loyal to Hitler put in charge.
The basic problem for anyone planning on replacing Poroshenko is that they will face the same troubles, they will have the same lack of solutions, and so they will soon find themselves with the same deep unpopularity. Given the increasing weakness of institutions in the Kiev-ruled part of Ukraine, deep unpopularity will also translate into effective lack of power. More and more it seems that “governing” from Kiev is a matter of juggling the support of warlords while maintaining acceptability to the US and other international purse-string holders. Perhaps it need not be that way in theory, but since acceptability to the US requires approaches to governing that are (worse than) useless to the general population, the warlords become the only source of support left.
One plausible progression, then, would be first other oligarchs take down Poroshenko, perhaps a succession of them, each falling into the same trap, until finally the power (and legitimacy) vacuum becomes so great that the Nazi warlords take the bait and decide to rule directly. At that point, they have two choices: Carry on the same US-acceptable economic policies, or break with the US. If they do the former, they will slip into the same deep unpopularity as everyone before them because they will continue the country’s ruin; denazification will be imminent. If they do the latter, they will not have the public support to pull off any very useful changes (because they just aren’t very popular), and they will have the US, EU and Russia against them and no friends whatsoever; denazification will be imminent.
Then maybe something can be done to improve matters.
In any lateral system when one component changes, all components change, the main variables being trajectory and velocity.
Encouragement throughout the process has catalysed the exposure and use of “assets “ by the opponents – the present “actions” by Poroshenko and others of the opponents are not unexpected.
This encouragement has also facilitated opportunities including but not restricted to:
1. Perceiving the weaknesses of the opponents and using this understanding to challenge them – not restricted to civil war in Ukraine.
2. Using the opponents efforts’ in perception management against them.
3. Catalysing the metamorphoses of some of the present opponents.
Understandably some on this blog have little if any experience in transcendence, its catalysation and encouragement.
Like many self-described “strategists” of the opponents, some on this blog exhibit a marked level of immersion in the expectations, perceptions and ways of seeing/thinking of the opponents.
One of the consequences of this is an over-estimation of the agency and opportunities of the opponents. This affords opportunities to those opposed to the opponents since it is not an unalloyed disadvantage.
In a linear spectrum from representative democracy to fascism, oscillations are often functions of the rate of accumulation including all factors subsumed within this concept, and these interactions afford opportunities to facilitate/implement lateral strategies.
Some in disregard of context and time may seek to counter this with historical analogy, namely the KPD’s notion of social fascism in the 1920’s and 30’s and the rise of the National Socialists, also restricting their evaluation period to say 1925 to 1945, thereby failing to perceive the re-integration strategies of the opponents post 1945, sometimes referred to as the Cold War.
Consequently the present “actions” by the opponents afford and will afford opportunities to those opposed to the opponents to encourage developments which could include but not necessarily be restricted to:
1. Transcendence of the European Union.
2. Transcendence of NATO.
3. Transcendence of neo-liberal finance capitalism.
These will appear “counter-intuitive”, but the level of intuitiveness in opponents will help catalyse/facilitate these “surprising” developments.
They’re full of s**t. They talk a tough game but the won’t do anything without the support of their Zionist masters. They’re pathetic shills who pretend to be “Nazis”. Whatever you can say about Hitler, he was an independent and strong leader, who would never have accepted his country becoming a puppet state for corrupt Jewish oligarchs and foreign governments. These people say one thing while they do the exact opposite. They apparently oppose joining the EU, which is why they led the pro-EU Euromaidan coup and demanded that the EU Association Agreement be signed. They oppose Jewish power and oligarchs, which is why they’ve supported Jewish oligarchs to take every top position in Ukraine’s government. They claim to be “Ukrainian Nationalists” – while they collaborate with foreign governments to destroy Ukraine’s independence and make it part of a foreign-controlled federal state. They support foreign governments to hand-pick the new leaders of their country. They support foreign citizens to replace Ukrainians as the ministers in their government. With “nationalists” like them, who needs traitors?
Openly homosexual Lyashko a nazi ? What next the jews these kosher nazis have installed in power will be nazi too?
The only nazis in Jewkraine are the zionazis in power while the punked peasants are playing some make believe kosher nazis.
Creating a stampede of ukro-cattle charging across the borders into the Gayropa by the millions would be nice. They easily flee on the battlefield so chasing millions of them all the way to the Atlantic shouldn’t be a problem. Let the western degenerates be eaten up by all the mobs flooding there from everywhere.
4 weeks time and we get the MH17 report. Given that there is no evidence of a BUK (or if 100 different people have found some of the thousands of bits of shrapnel that would be scattered around the explosion, they have managed to keep it an incredible secret) we can expect either an official call for more evidence or a further delay. However the fiction is prolonged, it will be time for the Rebels, Russia to just call the bluff and declare the Dutch lead team to be fake.
This makes Poroshenko/Kiev’s task even more impossible. If I were the US choosing the next king, I’d want to get the report over with.
The Dutch are complete NATO stooges. I expect a faked report directly blaming Russia, as the basis for an increased hate campaign. Something like the Lockerbie sham that framed Libya. Totally confected, illogical, using planted ‘evidence’ and an FBI ‘investigator’ with a long record of malfeasance, but loyally peddled by the Western MSM with their habitual 100% Groupthink. With the scum who rule the West always expect the worst and you will never be surprised.
Saker’s comments about the Ukrainian language… You know, there needs to be added a new category of psychiatric disgnosis, under the name “linguophobia”, meaning, an irrational, bizarre, groundless hostility and outright hatred toward a particular given language. Far too many Russians suffer from this linguophobia regarding the Ukrainian language, and this seems to be the start and the springboard for much of the rest of Russian racist-like attitude toward “Ukrainian identity” or “Ukrainian nationalism”—probably dating back to the 1600’s.
It would be so much better to follow the Chinese example. There is actually a family of Chinese languages spoken in China. For instance, taken from Wikipedia source, the name for a breed of Chinese dog called “Tibetan mastiff” is transliterated Mandarin: Zàng áo; Cantonese: Tzong ngou, meaning “Tibetan mastiff-dog”, and you can see, there is a big difference between the Mandarin and the Cantonese,—yet, Chinese do not fight over language. No one claims that the Cantonese variant of the language is somehow artificial and invalid and must disappear, etc.
Most Chinese, I would bet, are actually bilingual, at least, or multilingual.—And most normal people would be if anything curious about some different language and would like to learn it, not hate it and label it “Klingon”-not human.—So there is a big mental problem here among the speakers of the three main Eastern Slavonic languages [Ukrainian, Belarussian and Russian] that so many Russians hate and disdain certain other languages,—like, I have also read that Russians living in the Baltic countries hate the native languages and refuse to learn them to the point that they would rather not even be citizens and have the rights of citizenship in those countries.—What do we have here?
“You know, there needs to be added a new category of psychiatric disgnosis, under the name “linguophobia”, meaning, an irrational, bizarre, groundless hostility and outright hatred toward a particular given language. Far too many Russians suffer from this linguophobia regarding the Ukrainian language, and this seems to be the start and the springboard for much of the rest of Russian racist-like attitude toward “Ukrainian identity” or “Ukrainian nationalism”—probably dating back to the 1600’s.”
Since it appears you wish to clothe your assertion in a discipline which some hold to be scientific, on what data using which evaluation methodologies do you base your assertion, upon which you seek to extrapolate to incorporate “far too many Russians”?
Perhaps you should consider that one professing to live in Florida is possibly immersed in aspects of the opponents’ ideology, including emoting cultural arrogance?
These particular subjects and contention on language has a long pedigree, including last year when a contributor to this blog contended that German is a “savage” language, and was asked “When did it become so?” The question was not answered.
“Far too many Russians suffer from this linguophobia regarding the Ukrainian language”
I will not reveal sources and so you can treat the following data as assertions.
Some in the present “Ukrainian” government at “elevated” levels and some of their supporters appear to privately “present” indicators of your neologism “linguophobia” in respect of the Ukrainian language, and have exhibited/held these attitudes for some time.
It would also appear that many in Ukraine experience difficulty in regard to “Ukrainian identity” or “Ukrainian nationalism”.
Since it appears you wish to clothe your assertions in a discipline which some hold to be scientific, perhaps I can reprise a previous request and ask on what data using which evaluation methodologies do you base your assertions?
Once again anonymous used as a cover for trolling,why am I not surprised.Both standard Russian (East Russian), and the multiple Western Russian dialects (Ukrainian) are parts of the same language.Just how hard is it for you Ukie supporters to get that common understood fact.They are like Low German and High German which are both parts of the German language.Many people in North Germany speak Low German dialects,but the state language taught as “German” is the High German dialect.They have little problems about that in Germany (a few North Germans crumble sometimes) it is just accepted as the way it is.But in the Russian lands including Banderastan,you people have gone insane with your language nationalism.Daring to prescribe a mere dialect (and not the biggest dialect at that) as the national language that everyone must use.Its disgraceful and will be at an end when this crisis is finished.
An illustration of the wonders of , and the opportunities afforded by, “simplicity”.
http://fortruss.blogspot.ru/2015/09/yatsenyuk-to-polish-pm-annexation-of.html
IN the West women pierce their belly buttons to make them look pretty and feminine but if you are a hetero and you look and are attracted this is politically incorrect and you are a chauvinist pig. In the west the unnatural exception is celebrated….Normal is boring. In fact they made a cartoon out of the working class called the Simpson’s-where any man who carried a lunch pail was characterized as a fool by the people who couldn’t find their rear ends with both hands and have to pay their social “lessors” to find it for them.