Okay, predictably some has misunderstood my rant as a change in heart. Others wonder what has changed over the past 24 hours. So let me clarify:
1) No change of heart? No – Putin did the right thing by waiting as long as was possible. I just don’t believe that waiting is possible any more. Why not?
2) What has changed? Not just words, but actions by Poroshenko. I, along with many other observers in Russia, had hopes that Poroshenko would use his “clean hands status” to come up with at least a temporary cease-fire followed by negotiations. Heck – even a 48 hour break to “celebrate” his “election” would have been helpful. All that happened was a dramatic increase in violence. Also, Merkel did specifically ask for a meeting with Putin and I had some hopes that the bitch has something useful to say to him. But the EU leaders did, again, show that as soon as Uncle Shmuel shows up they turn into the “great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies”.
Finally, Poroshenko did more than just spew some garden variety Ukie nonsense. He specifically committed himself to one language, no federation, no negotiations (at least not with those folks who matter) and he topped it all with a completely surreal statement about the Crimea being forever Ukie. Ok, these are not just words, the man cornered himself into a crazy, maximalist position. Some ask what I was expecting and say add that Poroshenko had no other options. Nonsense! He could have said something along these lines:
The blood of the glorious Ukrainian people is sacred to me and my first duty is to prevent it from being spilled (= stop the shelling). I shall never rest until each and every Ukrainian will feel that he/she is a precious part of an inclusive Ukrainian society whose historical roots have always been diverse and multi-national (language issue). The Ukraine must forever become a land of peace and peaceful trade (= neutrality). There is no personal sacrifice I shall not consent to achieve these lofty goals (= negotiate with the Novorossians). Etc. etc. etc.
Guys, this is not that hard. Not to mention that NOW would have been the correct time to get rid of the Nazis while the “eyes of the world” were upon the “legitimate President of the Ukraine”.
Poroshenko totally blew it. Totally.
And not because he is dumb. All those who know him agree on two things: he is a total prostitute and he is very smart. In this case, he was simply reading the speech written for him by Uncle Shmuel.
So that is what changed:
a) a total collapse and surrender by the EU 1%ers
b) a total sellout of Poroshenko to Uncle Shmuel
And this is why I see no point in waiting any longer. That, and the fact that if time is on Russia’s side (which it is – Banderastan is not viable), time is not on the side of the people of Novorossia who need help now.
So no, no change of heart. Change in objective circumstances. Remember dialectics 101: a quantitative change does eventually result in a qualitative change. I think that we have reached this point now.
As for my fear, it is primarily triggered by what I perceive as a “wishy-washy” tone out of Moscow. If that tone is designed to allow for a last ditch effort (I hear that Poroshenko has now announced that combats should stop this week) or for a cover for an intervention – fine. But something needs to be done in the next 24-48 hours and my Bosnian experience makes it very hard for me to live through these next couple of days.
Last, and frankly: I want the Polite Armed Men in Green to make minced meat of the Ukie Nazis involved in this disgusting war on civilians. These SOBs don’t deserve to live, imnsho.
I hope that I have explained myself to the satisfaction of at least most of you.
Kind regards,
The Saker
To Anonymous 09 June, 2014 20:05
Well, USA is an island nation. Most people here, the general populace, watch and trust TV. Europeans have long been a bit trickier to fool, because European countries share borders, problems and threats. USA is a standalone sort of thing (with castrated Canada/Mexico on both sides) and the people here are completely and utterly brainwashed.
I laugh when my US acquaintances bring up the whole ‘freedom of press’, Russians are brainwashed etc and so on. Yes, Putin may have shut down some blogs or leaned on some journalists, but the majority of Russians have lived through hell in the last 50+ years – they don’t trust ANYONE, and always know that there are ulterior interests and motives when it comes to politics. Americans are so completely naive and that’s what’s terrifying.
Thought provoking posts Andrew. Do you believe that the US has the means to force the Russians to give up Crimea short of a military strike? I am thinking no but there is clearly a full court press on to bring restive Europe in line with US policy through threat, bribery, and extortion. The Russian AWACS planes were up earlier in the crisis – no news on them now… I wonder if the US military is on board with such a policy.
the pessimist
Saker, anyone acting on your impulses has not understood history and will thus be doomed to repeat it:
By 31 August 1939 some 50.000 Germans had been interned, abducted, or slaughtered by the Polish mob. British “dirty tricks” units had actively participated in inciting the Poles.
For background on Poland’s disgusting nationalistic frenzy see here: http://www.wintersonnenwende.com/scriptorium/english/archives/articles/wrsynopsis.html
(this has actually started in the 1920s).
Hitler “saved” the rest of the Germans in Poland. He “saved” Germany by not taking chances with the Polish army which was fully mobilized by 30 August 1939.
Unfortunately that was also exactly what the Anglo-Zionist masters of conflict had been planning for. Hitler’s dozen peace proposals to England after 1 September 1939 went straight into the trash bin.
Fortunately Putin understands the risks better than Hitler and people acting on your impulses do. I sincerely wish the people of Novorossia will not have to go through the nightmare of Germans in Poland.
Saker, anyone acting on your impulses has not understood history and will thus be doomed to repeat it:
By 31 August 1939 some 50.000 Germans had been interned, abducted, or slaughtered by the Polish mob. British “dirty tricks” units had actively participated in inciting the Poles.
For background on Poland’s disgusting nationalistic frenzy see here: http://www.wintersonnenwende.com/scriptorium/english/archives/articles/wrsynopsis.html
(this has actually started in the 1920s).
Hitler “saved” the rest of the Germans in Poland. He “saved” Germany by not taking chances with the Polish army which was fully mobilized by 30 August 1939.
Unfortunately that was also exactly what the Anglo-Zionist masters of conflict had been planning for. Hitler’s dozen peace proposals to England after 1 September 1939 went straight into the trash bin.
Fortunately Putin understands the risks better than Hitler and people acting on your impulses do. I sincerely wish the people of Novorossia will not have to go through the nightmare of Germans in Poland.
Andrew,
While the not-precisely-brilliant current crop of Ukrainian and American oligarch-politicians might well approve the use of nuclear weapons in the Donbass, I seriously doubt their corporate overlords (oh, Monsanto, Cargill and Chevron, to name the first three who come to mind) would favor the very long-term glow-in-the-dark results. It also makes no sense given the latest info on Israeli-style ethnic cleansing, though frankly every one of the monsters responsible for harming utterly civilians deserves to live in a permanent nuclear winter.
If Andrew is correct then Mr Poroshenko has likely delivered the US position on Ukraine in his inaugural address. Are he and the Americans willing to give any ground in Eastern Ukraine? I would guess no – so that would mean negotiations are in bad faith – a play for time while additional forces and equipment are brought to bear. Also seems likely that the US intends to introduce and build up NATO forces within Ukraine. Re Tymoshenko – she didn’t deny the conversation, just complained it had been edited.
the pessimist
Your analysis may be correct, Andrew. All the more reason why the Russians should warn the U.S via back channel, whatever the hot line is now, that any future threat conveyed to them regarding a Tomahawk ship like the Vella Gulf, nuke-capable fighter-bombers in the Baltics, or whatever (B52’s, B2’s), will result in the following:
(a ) the source of the threat (ship, airfields) will be immediately nuked;
(b ) the Russian nuclear deterrent will go to full alert: subs at sea, mobile missiles deployed, bombers on strip alert at arctic bases, silos ready;
(c ) any indication through technical means of a nuclear attack on Russia will result in an immediate full-spectrum nuclear counterstrike to destroy the attacker.
No nation able to resist this bullying can long exist with a sword of Damocles hanging over its head. While the strong can do what they wish, only the weak must submit or suffer.
Here What if there’s an Agreement in the works — behind the scenes, meeting 3 x over 2 days of talks
From Reuters
Russia, Ukraine edge closerUkraine sees ..”a mutual understanding” with Russia on peace moves
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/09/us-ukraine-crisis-talks-idUSKBN0EK1V820140609
(Reuters) – Ukraine said on Monday it had reached a “mutual understanding” with Moscow on parts of a plan proposed by President Petro Poroshenko for ending violence in the east of the country.
Kiev gave no details and Russia did not comment directly but two days of talks, following a brief encounter in France last week that broke the ice between Poroshenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin, have given momentum to peace moves.
German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said in a statement released in Berlin that there was “some faint light at the end of the tunnel” in the Ukraine conflict for the first time in months.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said in a brief statement in Kiev that Russian and Ukrainian representatives had met three times in the past two days to discuss Poroshenko’s plan to end an insurrection by pro-Russian separatists in the east.
“As a result of the work, the sides reached a mutual understanding on key stages of the implementation of the plan and on a list of priorities which will contribute to a de-escalation of the situation in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine,” it said.
The talks are being mediated by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Vienna-based security and human rights watchdog, but almost no details of Poroshenko’s plan or the talks have been made public.[.]
Ukraine signaled last week they hoped to resolve a dispute over the price Kiev pays for Russian gas and its gas debts.
Failure to secure a deal, though, would fuel tension again because Moscow has threatened to turn off the taps on Tuesday if there was no agreement at the latest meeting in Brussels.
As the EU gets about a third of its gas imports from Russia, almost half of it via Ukraine, its member states could also suffer from supply disruptions.
In Finland, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the government in Ukraine and the EU had to work more constructively to end the crisis in Ukraine, but also expressed some hope.
[.]
Let that “faint light at the end of the tunnel” shine as the mid-day sun.
Hope faith and charity
Anon Mongoose
Andrew 09 JUNE, 2014 21:04
That is an odd take on Westphalia. Sounds more like “might is right” doctrine. I would suggest reading a good general article on the subject. England was not a signatory. Russia had a free hand to wage war against e.g. Sweden, winning extensive concessions in Baltic by Treaty of Nystad in 1721 and again under Treaty of Åbo in 1743 and later swallowed large chunks of Poland which had been allied with Prussia.
It seems odd to consider Germany as a “Westphalian nation” for while numerous German speaking HRE and non HRE states participated the idea of Germany was still a few centuries in the making. In a curious twist, France, whose diplomats engineered the treaty(s) had, by undermining Hapsburg power created the conditions that allowed those numerous German states to gradually coalesce under Prussian leadership until they were strong enough to handily beat Hapsburgs and then France in the second half of 19th C.
Westphalia is dying a slow death in our time mostly because it took exception to supranational government which is all the rage in Europe and NA post WW II.
Brian
the pessimist:
Russia fought to the last man and last bullet in Sevastopol in 1855 and 1942, and never gave up the port and fleet after 1991. She never recognized the right of Ukraine to the peninsula in contradiction to the wishes of her populace or the seizure of the Federal City of Sevastopol by Ukraine in 1991. At the first opportunity, Russia re-seized and annexed the entire peninsula in spite of vociferous Atlantacist opposition.
My conclusion is that nothing will dislodge Russia from Sevastopol and Crimea short of total military defeat and the enforced partition of Russia.
Thought provoking posts, indeed, Andrew. Thank you for your insights, which, together with Sakers, provide for fascinating reading.
When connecting dots in the big picture, I wonder if and how the reputed purchase of 1.6 billion rounds of ammo by the DHS, the NDAA, and the FEMA camps are connected to the growing rumors of a nuclear first-strike plan…
Protests in case of a nuclear flare-up? Doubtful, given the passive credulity of the populace of the Benighted States of Mammon. Maybe it’s a way to cull hordes of useless eaters, especially those who horde their constitutionally protected guns? (The Lugano Report may be fictitious, but only because we haven’t seen the original.)
Putin may be playing chess, and I desperately hope he continues to play it masterfully: he may be the last remaining bulwark against the suicidal triumph of the greedy sociopathic fascists. Tragically for Ukraine (and the rest of humanity), though, the AngloZioNazis will swipe the pieces off the board rather than lose the game to a better player…
Brian:
Germany today = Austria and Prussia and Saxony at Westphalia.
While establishing International Law and the sanctity of treaties and borders, it is clear that these principles only applied to those nations accepted into the “International Community” formed by Westphalian law. They hardly applied to the Ottomans, Chinese, Africans, or Indians, who were fair game for conquest by Europe.
It is also questionable if they were ever intended to be applied to Russia, and especially to Russia’s conquest of Tartary in Siberia, the Caucusus, and along the Black Sea. The Western Powers have never treated Russia as if she had legitimate rights in International Law except when it is convenient for them. See for example the Napoleonic invasion, Crimean War, Congress of Berlin in 1878, struggle over Afghanistan/Persia with Britain, WWI, Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, non-recognition of the Communist government, non-recognition of the reabsorbtion of the Baltic States, dismemberment of the Soviet Union, proposed dismemberment of the Russian Federation, non-recognition of Russian peacekepping efforts in Transnistria, Abkhazia, Ossetia, and Nagarno-Karabakh, and the opposition to the Crimean referendum.
@ Everybody
Andrew is really worth every single cent to the master.
After all the (very well-constructed) nonsense to convince the little ones about how much the world needs the US dollars (LOL! you must love their insolence), now he is out with this (slightly less well-constructed) nonsense to convince the little ones that you can play just as long you are allowed by his master; then the D-Empire send the Vellasomething and the game is over.
You know, that mighty mighty master…. sometimes he just got bored by his own might and so he will play a little with you, to have a little fun.
It’s just for this he has not yet taken over the whole world. In fact, nothing would be more easy: send a couple of Vellas, a few hot calls et voila’!
LASCIATE OGNI SPERANZA VOI CH’ENTRATE!
The master is unjust, ruthless, a murderer and a liar, you are right, little ones; but he is SOOO powerful, almighty I dare to say, you can see that everyday, so just surrender, do not bother to resist and fight, look at the powerful Putin…. a Vella is all that it took…..
Most assuredly I say to you, little ones, trust the Lord and ONLY the Lord, because the Lord is the only One Who can be trusted!
There is only One Almighty and is the One Who did rise the Lord from the dead.
Without the Lord you can do nothing, because He is the only One Who has overcome the world! Take away the (fear of) death and they have no power left. None, Nichts, Nada, Rien, Niente di niente!
Fear not, little flock. Christ is Risen!
And there’s nothing that Andrew’s master can do about it (apart from trying to take as many of you as possible with him to the outer darkness).
@ Andrew, stop the nonsense. There is no such thing as “Westphalian Law”, Westphalian treaty revolves solely around sovereignity issues. You know very well that the basis of your (anglo-american) law is the Magna Carta, which is based on the bible ultimately (the authority of the king is “god-given”). Which is to say, the whole concept of law as we know it in the west today is illegitimate.
Which is entirely unrelated to the fact that the BAR association defines what the “law” actually is.