[This analysis was written for the Unz Review]
The end of the year is often a time of relative calm when the various parties to a conflict take a moment off, even when they declare nothing of the sort publicly (there are, of course, exceptions to this rule of thumb, such as the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979). This year, both the Russians and the USA ended the year in a climax of sorts which we shall look into.
Another rule of thumb says that, “past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior”, and this turned out to be very true in both cases: the Russians did more of what they have done all year long, as did the Americans. Specifically:
• Uncle Shmuel decided to bomb five bases of the group Kata’ib Hizbullah in Iraq in retaliation for an attack on the K1 U.S. base in Iraq
• Defense Minister Shoigu announced that the first regiment of Avangard equipped ICBMs was fully operational and on combat alert.
Let’s take a look at the implications and consequences of these two events.
The U.S. airstrikes on Kata’ib Hizbullah units in Iraq
First, just to clarify, Kata’ib Hizbullah has nothing to do with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The word “Hezbollah/Hizbullah” simply means “party of God” and Kata’ib Hizbullah simply means “Brigades of the Party of God”. Yes, both groups have similar names and they are both Shia. Kata’ib Hizbullah probably aims at becoming an Iraqi version of Hezbollah, and while they even have a similar flag, Kata’ib Hizbullah is neither an offshoot nor creation of Hezbollah. Kata’ib Hizbullah was created as a direct response to the U.S. invasion of Iraq (whereas Hezbollah in Lebanon was blow-back from the Israeli invasion of Lebanon).
This being said, there is no doubt in my mind that the U.S. actions in the Middle-East, and especially the total and abject subservience of the USA to Israel (and when I say “subservience” I am being polite, really) have greatly contributed to facilitating the alliance and cooperation of all Shia factions in the Middle-East. The best example of such cooperation is the support the Yemeni Houthis get from Iran (but “support” is not the same as “proxy”, and Iran had nothing to do with the devastating Houthi counter-strikes against the KSA).
I won’t go into the details of the recent strike, especially since “b” on Moon of Alabama already has done a very good job analyzing it. What I will do is simply suggest an answer to the rhetorical question “b” asks at the end of his analysis: “Yesterday’s attacks guarantee that all U.S. troops will have to leave Iraq and will thereby also lose their supply lines to Syria. One wonders if that was the real intent of those strikes”.
My personal opinion is that Occam’s razor and past events ought to suggest that the most straightforward explanation is much more plausible than any kind of “5d chess” strategy.
Furthermore, far from suggesting that this latest expression of the hatred of the Iraqi people for Uncle Shmuel will result in a withdrawal, we already see the exact opposite happening: not only has the USA announced that it will send another 750 soldiers to Iraq, but it has also announced that another 4’000 troops might also be send to the region, to the immense joy of its Israeli overlords who can’t wait for a US attack on Iran (how nice that the “only democracy in the Middle-East” is always cheering for as much violence and wars as possible).
Does that look like a preparation for withdrawal to you?
Finally, there is also Donald The Great with his usual garden variety of empty threats like this wonderful tweet:
….Iran will be held fully responsible for lives lost, or damage incurred, at any of our facilities. They will pay a very BIG PRICE! This is not a Warning, it is a Threat. Happy New Year!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 31, 2019
And, sure enough, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei quickly replied:
If the Islamic Republic decides to challenge & fight, it will do so unequivocally. We’re not after wars, but we strongly defend the Iranian nation’s interests, dignity, & glory.
If anyone threatens that, we will unhesitatingly confront & strike them.
— Khamenei.ir (@khamenei_ir) January 1, 2020
and
That guy has tweeted that we see Iran responsible for the events in Baghdad & we will respond to Iran.
1st: You can’t do anything.
2nd: If you were logical —which you’re not— you’d see that your crimes in Iraq, Afghanistan… have made nations hate you. https://t.co/hMGOEDwHuY— Khamenei.ir (@khamenei_ir) January 1, 2020
It sure doesn’t look like anybody in Tehran is taking Trump, or the US, seriously.
And, frankly, why would they?
As Ayatollah Ali Khamenei correctly pointed out – there is nothing much the US can do about what is taking place all over the Middle-East; except, of course, starting a war which the US will most definitely lose (Hollywood inspired delusions of invincibility notwithstanding).
I believe that the U.S. Deep State has no intentions at all of leaving Iraq (or Syria, for that matter). Furthermore, far from being a strike to justify a withdrawal, this strike was aimed at bullying the Iraqi people into submission and acceptance of the lawless and thug-like behavior of the USA in their country. Simply put, Pompeo & Co. did what Uncle Shmuel always does when they do not know what to do: they crudely decided to use brute force with the goal of terrorizing their adversaries into submission.
You might object that this strategy has not worked in decades, and you would be right. But here is the catch: the weaker the AngloZionist Empire looks, the more the Empire feels that it ought to restore its putative ability to terrorize by doubling-down, again and again. This mental block is called, “la fuite en avant” in French, which can be translated as a flight forward: that is what you do when all you can do is what got you into serious trouble in the first place, because:
1. It did work in the past.
2. You don’t have the intellectual capability to imagine any other approach.
3. Because you sincerely believe that violence always solves all problems (as in the German saying “Wenn es mit Gewalt nicht geht, dann geht es mit mehr Gewalt”)
Those familiar with Hegelian dialectics will immediately see what is happening; the Empire is being destroyed from within, as a result of its own internal contradictions and its inability to evolve to a higher level of functioning. This inherent corrosiveness within the Empire does not require an external enemy, it destroys itself due to its very nature.
There are rumors that Trump wants to get rid of Pompeo, but I don’t believe them. Assuming that these rumors are true in the first place, are they linked to the recent air strikes or is this an expression of Trump’s comparative benevolence? Again, I doubt it. Trump is already blaming Iran for the fact that the US embassy in Iraq was attacked by large crowds of US-hating Iraqis.
Finally, and just as pathologically dysfunctional, is the fact that the only “solution” the leaders of the Empire could devise to the current crisis is to send in even more forces to reinforce the huge embassy compound in Baghdad. Obviously, Uncle Shmuel can’t even begin to imagine a strategy not solely predicated on violence.
This clearly shows that the expression, “insanity is repeating the same thing over and over again expecting different results” still fully applies to the rulers of the USA.
Now let’s take a look at how Russia ended the year
Russia deploys the Avangard (and more)
Remember how after Putin’s famous speech, the so-called “Russia specialists” declared that all these weapons did not exist, that they were all just computer animations?
Well, now probably the most exotic and “incredible” weapon mentioned by Putin (the Avangard) is fully operational and on combat duty. The Russians went so far as to show that weapon to US inspectors. Still, there remains a tiny minority which do not believe the “Russian hype”, despite an unambiguous report by the GAO which clearly states that “There are no existing counter-measures” against hypersonic weapons, and who will only admit the existence of these weapon systems if they get vaporized by them. But what do these Russian weapons (especially the Mach 10+ Kinzhal and the Mach 27+ Avangard) mean for the rest of us?
One one hand, this is very good news because it it yet another sign that Russia is now fully prepared for war, including total nuclear war. To put it differently, all the hopes that the U.S. had regarding the development of an ABM system which could stop a Russian counter-strike (following a U.S. attack) are now gone. Not only have the new Russian weapons made the US carrier fleet obsolete, it also made the US ABM plans obsolete too. Thus, in theory, this new reality ought to deter even the craziest folks at the Pentagon, CIA, NSA and White House.
On the other hand, however, this is not good news, because now the U.S. has a factual basis to declared that it feels threatened. Why? Because of the tricky issue of first-strike stability.
I can state categorically that Russia will never deliberately start a war, least of all against the USA (the Russians understand that Russia could never escape a US counter-strike, even if delivered by the comparatively old US nuclear triad), but that is not an assumption the Pentagon’s force planners can make. Simply put, the Avangard + Burevestnik (nuclear powered infinite range cruise missile) combo could seem rather destabilizing from the point of view of what is called first strike stability (for a detailed discussion see here). For the time being, only one ICBM regiment has been outfitted with the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles while the Burevestnik is still in the late stages of testing. But we also know that three more regiments are scheduled to receive the Avangard in the near future while the testing and evaluation of the Burevestnik is near completion (in spite of a possible recent accident). Once ready, this missile will probably be deployed in large numbers. Right now U.S. defense planners will have to assume that both systems will be deployed in numbers sufficient to affect the first strike stability between Russia and the USA.
The solution? To hammer out a new strategic arms treaty between the two countries. Alas, at this point in time, the U.S. leaders show no interest in any such treaty. Worse, the New Start Treaty will soon lapse.
I suppose that in the demented political culture of the USA any kind of treaty with Russia is a “sign of weakness” and is therefore “unpatriotic”. Still, first strike stability is one of those things which, along with cooperation in space, self-evidently benefits both nations (not to mention the rest of the planet) and, therefore, almost any strategic arms limitation/reduction would be highly desirable (the one exception to this rule would be a dramatic reduction in the number of deliverable warheads, even by both sides, which would threaten also first strike stability; see here and here for a discussion).
Finally, Russia ended the year by launching the newest Yasen-M-class SSN/SSGN, the Novosibirsk. This class of subs, arguably the most advanced on the planet, can function as both a nuclear attack and a missile attack submarine: it has eight torpedo tubes as well as ten vertical missile launch silos which can launch all sorts of missiles, including hypersonic ones. Most amazingly, it has only 64 crewmen, which suggest an unprecedented level of automation (the latest Virginia-class sub has a crew of 134). The Yasen-M is truly an amazing submarine, the big question now is how many of those Russia will be able to build? Probably not enough to really please the Russian force planners, but probably enough to create yet another major headache for the USN.
What is crucial to understand here is that the Avangard, the Yasen-M and all the other weapons systems Russia has deployed (the Avangards, Zirkons, Bastions, Sarmats, Pereswets, Burevestniks, Poseidons etc. are only the ones discussed in the western media, in reality there are many more) are but the tip of a much bigger iceberg: for the past 5 years or so Russia has been preparing for total war precisely to try to deter the USA from doing something literally “terminally” stupid. Will that be enough to shock the leaders of the AngloZionist Empire out of their delusions or grandeur and invincibility?
I honestly don’t know. I hope that it will. But, frankly, I am not sure. Listening to the likes of Trump, Pompeo, Bolton and the rest of these ignorant and self-deluded clowns, not to mention the English language corporate media, I don’t feel very reassured, to put it mildly. Let us pray that the actual deep-state decision makers can still discriminated between feel-good propaganda for the masses and the actual reality out there.
Conclusion: two diametrically opposed approaches to security
Trump is stuck in a position where he has no other choice but to continue to threaten anybody and everybody. This kind of manic aggression towards the entire planet is what passes for “looking presidential” in the current US political doxa. This, at leasts, is not Trump’s fault and it all began a very long time ago (remember Dukakis cruising around in a M-1 tank or Dubya landing on a carrier with “Mission Accomplished” in the background?). Not that I am excusing Trump in any way: no adult leader of a nuclear superpower should even think issuing such silly but nonetheless most dangerous threats towards any other sovereign country, nevermind another nuclear superpower. But let’s be honest here: every single US President starting with Clinton and all his successors was a clown of one kind or another and Trump is probably not the worst of them. As I have said many times, at this point the problem is not the man (or woman) in the White House, it is the entire system which is both terminally dysfunctional and unreformable.
The year 2020 will be dominated by the (frankly treacherous) attempts of the Dems to subvert the US Constitution and overthrow Trump. Like many others, I predict that this will boomerang into the Dems collective face and will yield a landslide victory for Trump (the Democratic Party is at least as unreformable as the US political system). Externally, Trump will probably continue to simultaneously threaten the EU, Russia, China, Iran, Syria, North Korea, Yemen, Lebanon, Venezuela, Mexico, Turkey, etc. and the entire worldwide Muslim community (keep in mind the following stats: there are about 2 billion Muslims out there, and make up a majority of the population in 49 countries around the world). Basically, the US believes that it can simultaneously threaten, sanction and otherwise bully (or even attack), most of the countries on the planet and prevail. To call this delusional is an understatement.
For Russia 2020 will be an important transition year. This is best illustrated by the compromise deal reached with the EU and the Ukraine on gas: Russia yielded to some of the Ukrainian demands solely in order to show support for the EU which is now slowly showing signs of truly getting fed-up with the endless stream of threats and demands coming from across the Atlantic. You could say that Russia agreed to a tactical concession in order to secure a strategic objective.
The Germans and the French, in particular, seemed to have finally (!) realized that they gained nothing and lost a lot in their subservience to the USA . The Russian plan is quite simple, really: show the EU that Russia has more than enough force to smash any US/NATO/EU attacking force while, at the same time, indicating that Russia is more than willing to cooperate, and even compromise, to establish normal, civilized, relations with Europe. This being said, Russia will only agree to relatively minor compromises, simply because her real priorities, political and economic, are not in the West anymore, but in the South, North and East and, especially, China [quick reminder: the top exports of Russia are crude petroleum ($96.6B), refined petroleum ($58.4B), petroleum gas ($19.8B), coal briquettes ($16.1B) and wheat ($7.93B); the top export destinations of Russia are China ($39.1B), the Netherlands ($27.7B), Germany ($19.9B), Belarus ($18.5B) and the United States ($15.4B).] Yes, the EU is still important to Russia, but not a top priority anymore.
How can all this be summed up?
Well, and paraphrasing a famous quote by Foreign Minister Lavrov, we could say that
- the US plan is to turn allies into friends, turn friends into partners, turn partners into neutrals and turn neutrals into enemies and
- the Russian plan is to turn enemies into neutrals, turn neutrals into partners, turn partners into friends and turn friends into allies.
I will let you decide which of these two plans is viable and which one is not.
I wish you all the best in 2020, especially peace.
The Saker
Thank you Saker for helping us to maintain our sanity in North America. I don’t know what we would do without you!
Happy New Year to you and everyone.
#1 Prediction for 2020:
US will “fight” inside Iraq. This war heating up to white heat (white phosphorous, thermobaric) is aimed at Iran, but is absolutely necessary for the MIC and the Israeli Lobby support Trump. The Pentagon, CENTCOM specifically, has its “cajones” invested in Iraq. These are the war stores, the service ribbons and medals for full generation of “warriors” who must continue the fable that the US defeated an Army of Saddam’s and destroyed AQ and then more recently, conquered ISIS in Mosul.
Iraq is the cornucopia trough of Trillions of dollars the US pigs out upon in weapons sales, black ops slush funds, contractor overruns, waste and corruption, and the illusory “missing billions-trillions” for which the military cannot account, the State Dept. has no clue and several administrations wrap in national security blankets, sealed to Congressional, IG and FOIA searches.
So, the “honor” of the military and “national security” against terror, as well as protecting our lords and masters—the so-called only democracy in the region—who demand and require we stay until total dominance over the region (necessitating the removal of Russia and the destruction of the Islamic Republic in Tehran) is handed to Israel.
The US will leave when Israel has hegemony over the region. Not a day sooner.
#2 Prediction for 2020, the focus on the Iraqi Shia militias is really a focus on General Soleimani. The US wants him dead. The price on his head is probably $100 million. Most likely, a score of the best snipers are always trying to make their way to where he may be. And most of his time is spent in Iraq. Yes, he works the battles in Syria, but Iraq is the base of his operations because it is the first line of defense of Iran, deals with the Kurds, AQ, ISIS, and the British in the Basra region and the US where it is based. His portfolio for the Quds force, for the PMUs and for Hezbollah in Syria all thread through Iraq.
If he is not assassinated by drone strike or sniper round, we are sure to see US troops attacked in Iraq and Syria by forces Soleimani directs. He has pledged to drive the US out of the region. The battle is pitched as of Friday with the US strikes in western Iraq.
Iraq is not going to be a safe place in 2020. The way the US fights wars, drones dropping guided bombs and missiles will become a near-daily event. Thousands of innocent civilians will die. Chaos is what the US wants so a Trump Surge of tens of thousands of troops (until the election is over) can assure “stability”. The tactic is useful to break the supply from Iran to Syria and Lebanon.
Russia and China have little leverage in Iraq. Russia passed on the opportunity to move in when invited a few years ago.China has only security for its construction and oil projects. And they won’t fight using those forces.
The Iraqis will have to fight again against the invader. Will they?
It looks like they will or there won’t be an Iraq when the US is done with its work there.
Great summation, Saker. Lavrov’s words, as always, resonate with power and truth.
Deeply sad to report my Prediction #2 was only 24 hours cold when news of General Soleimani being killed has happened.
its an intuitive comment Larchmonter. Amazing.
News moves so fast!!! I am just catching up on The Saker “real” (not fake MSM) news and came across this comment!
You predicted this death a day ahead of time…… wow.
Thank you Saker for your assessment of the geo political situation. It would really be of benefit to all readers of your site if they had an opportunity to Google the { chronologically dated…but absolutely current ; ” 1976 Wallace Rosenthal Interview “. Mr. Rosenthal was the Administrative Assistant to the late Senator Jacob Javits who was very instrumental in increasing Israel’s influence in the U S National Government. The Interview is both in text form and oral. Unless People can actually identify the germs that are causing the Disease ; it is hard to work on the cure.
Thank you Saker for this and many other excellent analysis. Have a successful year 2020.
I agree with Larchmonter445 that Iraq is going to suffer again in 2020, but like before, this will not avail the Empire of what they want. Iraq was already invaded and destroyed in the dawn of this century when the Empire was even stronger, and that did not lead to the gold ring of Israeli hegemony over the region. The real danger is that the dying Beast will lash about blindly an wreak untold destruction through its nuclear arsenal.
What you call delusional U.S. behavior in the MidEast is explainable as what you refer to as subservience of the U.S. to Israel. Israel doesn’t care how much it costs the U.S. to weaken Israel’s enemies.
1. The best way to weaken an enemy is not to attack it at all. This ossifies the enemy into believing it is invincible, and therefore the enemy does not take steps to improve.
2. The best way to strengthen an enemy is to attack it with insufficient force to obliterate it. The enemy then learns to adapt and develops better defenses against future attacks.
This is Immunology 101.
The U.S. and Israel fit into 1. The Muslim world in the Middle East fits into 2.
Thank you Saker for yet another illuminating article. 2020 promises to be even more tumultuous than the year that just ended. We can only hope and pray that there are enough sane people left in the US Gov. to help avoid a major war.
You write “…such as the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.” Correct me if I’m wrong, but weren’t the Soviets invited by the PDP Government in Kabul to send troops to help ward off Wahhabi style Islamic guerrilla fighters such as the mujahideen and other foreign mercenaries, recruited, financed and armed by the CIA?
Interesting piece of history here: “Afghanistan, another untold story”
https://www.globalresearch.ca/afghanistan-another-untold-story/11279
I believe Saker meant in general that the end of the year usually means a break from the usual, not much happening. The Soviets moved into Afghanistan on December 24th 1979 and, I think, Saker mentioned that as an exception from the rule.
Happy New Year to all. Good luck. God help us.
Based on the Treaty of 1978, “Treaty of Friendship, Good Neighborliness and Cooperation”, Moscow, December 1978, the Afghan government requested military forces be sent to assist the government in spring and again in summer 1979. Advisers and specialists were in country to assist with helicopters and other weapons systems.
The insertion of operational combat forces occurred on December 25, 1979, “with the mission of rendering international aid to the friendly Afghan people and establishing advantageous conditions to prevent possible actions by the governments of neighboring countries against Afghanistan.”
The war would last nine years, one month and eighteen days. 13,000 Soviet soldiers perished, by official counts.Some analysts say the total is closer to 26,000 died. 55,000 were total Soviet casualties.
—per “The Soviet-Afghan War”, a study by the Russian General Staff, translated and edited by W. Grau and Michael A Griess.
I was going to point out the same – USSR did not “invade” Afghanistan in 1979. Correct terminology – particularly in matters of war and peace – is very important for all of us. The then-Afghani invited USSR to help it against militant forces, supported by the US – not unlike Russia going to help Syria in 2015. None of us should propagate that old myth.
Of course, in light of what happened last night, this suddenly seems trivial. Just hope we’re not on the precipice of a war.
A blessed Christmas to the Saker and Club of Saker admirers !
Question:
Is the $ 27.7 Billion of Russian exports to the Netherlands really destined for use in Holland or is much of it actually shipped elsewhere through Rotterdam?
Good question. Apparently it’s not all for the Dutch. According to this source the bulk is shipped out through Rotterdam. Netherlands, in this case, appears to be a transit country.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-russia-trade/dutch-russian-tulips-for-oil-trade-suffers-under-crisis-sanctions-idUSKBN0KP1LO20150116
If anyone has more info about final destinations of the exports please post.
EU IS not important?
The Saker only mentioned Germany and the Netherlands. What is the volume of trade with the rest of EU?
The bombing of Kata’ib Hizbullah was more than hitting this particular militia. The Kata’ib Hizbullah are part of the Iraqi army, so are controlled by the Iraqi government since 2016 I believe. The bombing of Kata’ib Hizbullah killed 9 of its members and killed 21 from the Iraqi army (artillery units) and police forces. Around 45 more were injured. This was a direct attack on the Iraqi army. All Iraqi’s are angry, not just Kata’ib Hizbullah. The missile attack on K1 airbase is located hundreds of miles from where the US decided to bomb. At first I heard ISIS had claimed responsibility for the attack. I’m not sure if that was confirmed. The truck used in the attack on K1 wasn’t destroyed by the perpetrators of this attack and conveniently several Iranian missiles were found with the truck. Come on guys, all that was missing was General Qasem Soleimani’s passport in the glove compartment.. This looks like to me as a set up to continue the pressure on Iran. To keep the money flowing you have to keep the problem rolling. Money flowing to the MIC, money flowing out of Iraq through theft and corruption by the US and corrupt politicians in Iraq. The US will need more than a few thousand troops to keep the juices flowing.
All Iraqi’s are angry, not just Kata’ib Hizbullah. and their supporters. The US is now between a rock and a hard place. More bombings will do the impossible, unite all Iraqi’s against the US. The US doesn’t do sorry so the other path is a slow slide to the US being requested to leave by Political and non violent protest. The protesters were allowed to attack the Green Zone by the security forces. When asked to leave by Iraqi government, the protesters did. This also looks like it was planned. Was it to let off some of the pressure immediately so things could go back to “normal”, or was it part of a process to get the US to leave. Time will tell.
/…/ the EU which is now slowly showing signs of truly getting fed-up with the endless stream of threats and demands coming from across the Atlantic.”
With utmost emphasis on the word ”slowly” here, mind you. Sure, it is true that the prestige of imperialism has taken a hit as the globalists switched to the current Open Border regime. Neoliberalism at first seemed to promote reactionary petty bourgeois delusions about endless spending with no strings attached and the First World firmly in control of global affairs. When the USSR broke up and Serbia later was bombed by NATO, the bogus Left/Right ”divide” vanished completely as the entire West celebrated the triumph of ”Human Rights”, a.k.a. ”End of History”.
Today, neoliberalism has ”betrayed” its erstwhile grassroots. And with the so-called ”revisionist powers” Russia and China changing the power balance globally, aforementioned grassroots feel very correctly that their formerly deeply revered imperialist statesmen and media are ditching them as the West loses its grip elsewhere. It is going to get worse and uglier with each passing day. But, hey, the dullards can still revel in their nostalgia as the Ziomedia broadcast the sweetest memories of 1989 in Berlin.
Concerning the Lavrov thesis, only the russian plan is a plan that will work. It is the opposite of constructing a problem that cannot be solved. It can be solved by a winning formula. That is
a statement of the russian foreign policy and the russian diplomacy.
The US foreign policy and diplomacy are in a state of mismanagement and chaos. The solutions are oversimplified, corrupted and presented to a supreme leader obfuscated and based on secret elites policies and departments of war. The answers become very simple.
One can understand the recent US attacks on iraqi military forces by very simple understanding therefore: There must be gains in reestablishing US hegemony over iraqi politicians who has become outspoken against US presence, constructing a (corrupt) basis for US military forces in Iraq.
There must be gains in reestablishing US proxy forces (formerly IS) control of own territories in the Anbar provice, one of the main US strategic objective is the Syria – Iraq blockade have relied on proxy forces.
The recent attacks serve a third purpose as holding Iran responsible, continuation of the cyberwar media psy-ops serve as false flag operations against Iran a long term objective .
Altt these are corrupt goals, illegal goals in the eyes of international law but that is the nature of US policies, they are corrupt, illegal and hidden from the eye of the public by substituting truth with lies and propaganda.
The audience loudly applauds encore for Russia on the world stage….and boos and laughs at the embaressing and ever failing USA comedy show of inane idiots….
I heard about the fight to drain the swamp includes the Deep State (DS) actors who are part of Iran’s DS agents who work withe US DS and that this whole thing in Iraq was set up to disrupt and goad Trump into war with Iran (as that is what the DS always does: create war and profiteer and dominate/rule beihnd the scenes). If this is true, Trump will, for public consumption’s sake, act but not go to war. Perhaps it is true as he is the only President of the US in my lifetime who refuses to actually go to war or start a new one. Yes, there are still troops here and there, but they have been reduced significantly. The theory is that it is meant to continue fighting the remainder of the DS wihle most of those actors inside US Intels, DOJ etc, have already been replaced.
Not that Trump is the brain behind all this, but the team behind him (he is the first POTUS who perhaps dares to go along with those who wish to undo the DS) might well be onto it. After all, it was Admiral Mike Rogers who told Trump from the start about SpyGate and appears to be part of this team which dealt with RussiaGate and will deal with people like Biden/Ukraine and will start indictments of the coup dӎtat players now in 2020.
If correct, then there will be no war, just as Syria is not under constant attack by the US anymore and things are less war-like in Afghanistan, Libya, N.Korea (where US Intels also had a lot of clout) etc.
I can only hope this is what might unfold and that Israel is not in complete control anymore of the US.
@Andre:
“I heard about the fight to drain the swamp includes the Deep State (DS) actors who are part of Iran’s DS agents who work withe US DS” (sic.)
US DS is part of Iran’s DS?????
Stop listening to the sounds rattling around in your head. You didn’t hear this. You fabricated the nonsense all by yourself.
Document it, source your information, Andre.
This is just silly otherwise.
Oh, I’ll source it for you, but not with links. It is all over the Full On Trumpers that have to make excuse for Trump .. they continually manufacture strawmen and rabbit holes to make Trump look good, and you know .. that bazillion G Chess that he always plays. It is not realpolitic but manufactured dreams, unicorn fantasy, because Trump is ‘much more clever than anyone and cannot possibly do anything wrong’. It is that cadre that has come up with this latest excuse – Trump is just draining the swamp dont’cha know Larchmonter – funny the shooting is always toward Syria or Iraq or the threatening always to Iran – but Trump is only draining the swamp in those areas of the world – not to worry at all. /end sarcasm
The Dems are trying to sabotage their own chances for 2020 deliberately. They want Trump to win, they need him to win even. By now, everybody knows the next financial crash is coming and it is coming very soon. Trump is the perfect halfwit to pin it on. They do not want a dem in the white house when it happens. As soon as it does, they will remind us of the shelved impeachment articles, at which point in time they will have the country fuming at the blonde dummy who claimed the economy is the best it had ever been and took full credit for it.
Happy new year!
The US seems to be suddenly moving large numbers of cargo planes and fighters to Kuwait:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=r6z_ia0L7Wc&feature=emb_logo
US helicopters are flying low over the Iranian embassy in Baghdad, and are armed with air to surface missiles..
The attacks on the Kataib Hizballah was near Aqaem. It is the only border crossing open between Iraq and Syria. By weakening the forces defending the border, it allows ISIS to threaten the Aqaem border crossing, much like what happened when the Coalition Forces bombed SAA positions on the high ground south of the airport. They hare hoping to cut off the land link from Baghdad to Damascus, or more importantly, the link from Iran to Hizbullah in Lebanon.
US helicopters are at the moment flying low all over Baghdad, one twitter account describing it as provocative. One report had the helicopters flying over the Iran embassy. More provocation. They are really trying hard to start a fight.
Haidar Sumeri is a thoughtful and informed commentator on Iraq. Here is his observation on the recent events in Baghdad:
https://1001iraqithoughts.com/2019/12/30/american-strikes-in-iraq-have-just-made-a-bad-situation-much-worse/
Middle East predictions 2020
Everything can happen but the future has already been decided, the Middle East goes Eurasia.
This sentence is of course the one that counts: “Let us pray that the actual deep-state decision makers can still discriminated between feel-good propaganda for the masses and the actual reality out there.”
So, are some still in place to do this discrimination? I was heartened when I read this piece from Patrick Lang’s blog – where the writer states clearly: “For weeks, it was Iranian consulates and facilities that bore the brunt of Iraqi popular unrest. Iran reacted with restraint. With our lethal attacks on the Kata’ib Hezbollah, we changed that. Pompeo, Esper and Trump are keeping up the trash talking. Threatening Iran by killing Iraqis… whose ass was that brilliant diplomatic strategy pulled from?”
https://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2020/01/our-embassy-in-baghdad-ttg.html
Perhaps there are a few still left. And perhaps their words still count.
It is certainly right that “the Empire” follows the pattern of what worked for it in the past, but fails to see a deeper pattern: the ultimate fate of all Great Powers. It is always an honor to join in the Saker’s informative and interesting discussions. For my own small contribution:
https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
My feeling is that this criminal attack in Iraq is rather an inner-American confrontation on the backs of the Iraqis. But do not bet on it; for me, this is more a working hypothesis, than a conviction.
“Let us pray that the actual deep-state decision makers can still discriminated between feel-good propaganda for the masses and the actual reality out there.” Well said. Can you tell us who the actual [dark]-state decision makers are?
The rest of the world needs to get it through their skulls that America is not to be trusted, on any level.
Saker: what are your thoughts on congress introducing a law declaring Russia a sponsor of terroism and its implications?
Its a sign of a desperate and uninformed congress, its not worth the paper its written on.
“…the Empire is being destroyed from within, as a result of its own internal contradictions and its inability to evolve to a higher level of functioning.”
That sentence hit the target. The US learned nothing from fighting WW2. It became what its narratives claimed it fought. All its potential madness hatched out in strength after the end of Cold War v1. It hungers for the disaster it is marching straight into.
Thank you Saker for your clear thinking articles. I hope for the best but fear the worst from the lunatics in the US.
Vladimir Vlad’mirovich Putin was handed the presidency of Russia at a time when Russia was to all intents and purposes dead. I can only conject over what The Powers That Were back then thought they were doing, apparently figuring he will preside over the death and funeral of Mat Rossiya and take the blame whilst they continued to loot and pillage to the very end. What a surprise he was, this mid level aparatchik that no one had ever heard of, and that’s an understatement rivaling calling a 300 kilo rabbit mildly horizontally challenged.
V V Putin seized Russia by the lapels and shook her in to consciousness, pulled her up by her bootstraps and forced her to stand up and be Russia again. I have seen him called every name in the book except ‘competent and foresighted’ on many sites, and sadly including this one. He has backed and filled, patiently taking attacks and outright insults that from other countries would have brought a declaration of war, albeit that war would have been a Gotterdammerung for Russia, a last valiant and epic charge in to history….and death. He took the insults and attacks, both personal and against Russia, and never wavered from his task.
He has in two short decades brought Russia back from near oblivion and returned her to her rightful place as a world power. He does not use that power to project Russia as the new ‘hegemon’, he instead uses that power to protect Russian and enhance her economic growth as she matures in this ‘modern’ world and attempts to bring some sort of peace to the world. As part of this process, he has top to bottom overhauled her armed forces and included General Shoigu as part of the leadership troika which also includes the premier statesmanship of Sergei Lavrov. It is actually these three men who will go down in history as the saviors of Russia and in all probability of The World.
As such, the Russian Armed Forces have been overhauled top to bottom, Army, Fleet, Air Force, ‘specialists’, everything. Almost a year ago V V Putin announced to the world what he was bringing in to service and this included weapons for which at this time there is no defense for those in the receiving end. It is this mailed fist, this force to be reckoned with, that will bring at least a modicum of peace for few years. However, it is not only these formidable strategic weapons coming in to service that are important.
While these weapons get the headlines, what no one reports is the complete modernization of those ordinary soldiers, the infantry, the tankers, the artillery, the support echelons, navy, air force support, all of which are just as important as the headline grabbers, and it is here, with the ‘lowly’ grunts, where the modernization really shines through. The spirit and patriotism of these troops is becoming legendary and if you don’t believe me, just watch the Victory Day parades over the last 15 years. Look close at the actual soldiers marching, the looks on their faces as they have begun to realize just how important, and popular with the citizens, they are, and look at their equipment and machines, almost all of it new and cutting edge. Their pride shows through clearly, as does their pride in Russia and their patriotism. President Putin has returned Russia to what she was and what she should be, and with any luck he has brought at least a glimmer of peace for the near, and hopefully far, future.
As for the soporific miasma that is Foggy Bottom, not much can be said for a world power, or in some’s opinion ‘THE’ world power, that is literally tearing itself to shreds as the upper crust fight over what may well be the last crumbs they can bite off. It’s actually a pity, and worthy of pity, to see what was, what could be, what should be, and what ain’t and will never be again devouring itself with gluttonous gusto.
Auslander
Author http://rhauslander.com/
Never The Last One, paperback edition. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1521849056 A deep look in to Russia, her culture and her Armed Forces, in essence a look at the emergence of Russian Federation.
An Incident On Simonka, paperback edition. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1696160715 NATO Is Invited To Leave Sevastopol, One Way Or The Other.
What can we do with an irrational, paranoid empire. Here is the latest news from Sputinik.
https://sptnkne.ws/ATu9
Thanks for this Saker, and Happy New Year. We all have to pray for peace and for cooler heads to prevail.
Esper is the return of Rumsfeld, any war, any where, but give him Moar War, dammit.
The only thing that will stop the US warmongering is a long, continuous line of body bags and caskets back to Dover AFB.
Very sensible overview of the bigger events that exist and are developing. I saw a headline for a story saying that Russia now has unstoppable FIRST STRIKE capability against uncle Schmuel. It really annoyed me and I let my displeasure be known in their comments section. It is the U.S. who threatens the first strike and is threatening the entire planet, not Russia. I’ve listened to other analysts such as Scott Bennett and his view is that Russia is not a problem or threat to the west. I agree. The empire seems to have lost its mind. I can see how having such weapons would be used as such an excuse by the west to escalate. They have left Russia with no choice. Well, as an initial act of good faith, I would suggest they move away from the Russian border. Way back along with their missiles which were placed there to thwart rogue state Iran. (wink, wink) OH, I forgot. They don’t do diplomacy. They only make demands. I suppose it would be a good thing to have new agreements limiting arms except uncle Schmuel cannot be trusted to conform to the agreement, even as they were the ones who actually did violate the INF treaty for a very long time.
> for the past 5 years or so Russia has been preparing for total war precisely to try to deter the USA from doing something literally “terminally” stupid. Will that be enough to shock the leaders of the AngloZionist Empire out of their delusions or grandeur and invincibility?
I honestly don’t know.
This is the multi-trillion $ question. I honestly don’t know either. My gut feeling doesn’t lead me to have a positive outlook. No, they are clearly not leaving either Syria or Iraq. If anything they are shoring up their forces and prepositioning, likely for Iran. I would expect Israel and Saudi Arabia to be on the front lines of air attacks. In this current environment, no country in the sights of the empire can afford to be complacent because war is only a false flag away.
My final thoughts are for Trump the not so great. I would really like to be able to offer excuses for him but I can’t find any. Because of his inclination to say too much, there are a lot of statements he has made in the past, that when viewed by events since he was selected as President take on real meaning. For example, his statement that he is a globalist and a nationalist. His statements about the stupid wars were good but why were they stupid? Because the U.S. spent a lot of money but got nothing back. We should have kept the oil! More than once he has expressed his feelings about the Clintons. They are good people! His giant tax break to bring jobs back to America was really a giant payoff to his multinational corporate friends. I used to describe Trump as being amoral. But really what does that mean except he is immoral. While he may prefer to avoid the dirty business of a shooting war neither is he against it. He was screaming angry about the little children killed by that monster Assad in a fake chemical attack which Assad didn’t commit. But he doesn’t seem to care so much for the thousands of other children killed by the direct actions of the empire. I guess what I’m trying to say is that Trump is right at home, fits in quite well with the wishes of the deep state.
As you rightly said, this is a system that is so corrupt it cannot be reformed. I agree. Where does that leave the world? If everyone tries to move on and ignore them they are likely to throw a huge hissy fit and attempt to kick over all the tables so nobody else can have fun either.
When the plug is pulled on this fake economy I expect events to get very dark very fast, especially in the U.S.
God bless you Mr. Saker and thank you for all the informative reading you provide us with.
The nature of the game has changed. Russia now employs geoeconomics more prominently while still engaging in geopolitics, while the Outlaw US Empire is no longer capable of using its once formidable geoeconomic muscle and must now rely on its dwindling geopolitical capacity. Thus as Admiral Yamamoto observed after Pearl Harbor, the future outcome is essentially already ordained–the Outlaw US Empire no longer has what it takes to compete either geoeconomically or geopolitically and will now decline relative to the rising Eurasian Bloc. IMO, we’re now at the point where Oceania is about ready to enter 1984 in reality as it finds itself opposed by both Eurasia and East Asia, with the addition of Africa and Latin America as allies to the latter blocs.
But what is the actual root of the problem? In the opinion of Dr. Hudson, myself, and a host of others, the Neoliberal ideology has run its course and must either gain possession of the Russian and especially the Chinese financial systems that will allow its Ponzi Scheme to continue another decade or two, or the Scheme will finally collapse in massive bankruptcy causing a intense but localized Great Depression for the Outlaw US Empire. All the armed and deadly hysterics act as cover for this underlying truth that cannot be uttered whatsoever. However, there’s one way out of the dilemma that’s anathema for those in charge of the grandly dysfunctional USA political-economy: Write down the debts, nationalize most of Wall Street and its banks, and return to having a financial system that’s almost entirely 100% public as it was prior to 1913. Yes, a very hard pill to swallow, but it’s the only one having a chance to cure the deeply entrenched sickness ruining the people of the USA. Sanders has given some very basic lip service to this solution. And within the USA’s historical context, the political battle between having a public versus private financial system predates the 1787 Constitution and is the focal point around which the grand political battle for control of the nation must revolve.
Lending credence to my conclusion is the 1st edition of the “Keiser Report” for 2020 featuring Dr. Michael Hudson for the entire program. In fact Mr. Saker, you’ll want to put the video on your main page and write an article about it!
One problem the US has is the pervasive lying by all the officers, as revealed by the recent Wapo story about 18 years of lying about Afghanistan. The current Chairman of the Joint Chiefs is the same way . A few years ago he very emotionally said the Army could defeat the Russians. This was just the same Can=do Hoorah US Army nationalism not based in reality. Pompeo lies all the time also. No evidence about who killed the contractor and a stupid bombing which has enraged most Iraqis. The Houthis, the iraqi militias, these are all robotic lackeys of Iran, so the Washington consensus goes. Unable to look at the situation with out the propagandistic biases, it will probably be a fiasco. The US Military and Intel agencies are in denial about how we spent $6 trillion and only got to be hated throughout the ME.
”/…/ a law declaring Russia a sponsor of terrorism”
Now Russia/Moscow/The Kremlin/Putin will finally ”see the light” /sarc off/.
Nussiminen’s verdict: Russia/Moscow/The Kremlin/Putin could reciprocate by declaring the Pindos Certified Human Garbage. I have a sneaky feeling that such a legislation would gain appreciable recognition worldwide except in the US and, of course, Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltics, LOL.
Some time back, Sayed Hassan Nasrallah gave a detailed commentary on the role of the US & its military in the fight against ISIS in Iraq & Syria. He mentioned a number of important & revealing points, confirming what many of us already suspected, or knew. Nasrallaha’s claims were also backed up by numerous sources, including members of the Iraqi government, militia commanders, including the commanders of Kata’ib Hezbollah. Nasrallah claimed that the US had attempted to thwart the offensive to liberate Mosul, & when they could no longer stop it, they tried to delay it, then obstruct it, & in the end assisted many ISIS units & commanders in achieving safe passage to Deir Ezzor in Syria. Mosul was destroyed in part because ISIS were constantly being fed with intel on Iraqi troop movements which made it all the more difficult to destroy them. Then, after Mosul was liberated, & the fight went into the desert of Al Anbar & towards the Syrian border, the US blatantly intervened to support ISIS by diverting Iraqi forces using all manner of tactics, & flew surveillance drones to inform ISIS of the approach of said Iraqi forces, PMU’s etc. The US destroyed Raqqah to push ISIS to concentrate on Deir Ezzor, in a bid to prevent the SAA from liberating that city. It was the US that arranged for safe passage of ISIS remnants from Raqqah to Deir Ezzor. And now we have this, which is reminscent of the bombing of the SAA in Palmyra, & this was clearly an action designed to assist ISIS once again, the last remnants of which are being eliminated in the desert border area with Syria by PMU’s. The entire time the US has actually been supporting the Salafist Principality that its military intel (DIA) envisaged back in 2012 being formed 2 years prior to the pronouncement of the Khalifah. And in that document it was predicted that the centres of this entity would be Hassakah & Deir Ezzor, & later the two major centres were Mosul (which was also mentioned in the report as a centre of support) & Raqqah. What is interesting in this report, which much commentary missed, was that as early as 2012 the DIA is mentioning an ISIS commander Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, who had earlier been in US custody in Camp Bucca – alongside with the entire command structure of what would become ISIS, including Ibrahim al-Badri a.k.a Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi. Now the US military released Adnani, just as it did all other future ISIS commanders, & a few years later the DIA is reporting that it is aware that Adnani is mobilizing support for ISIS in the desert area between Syria & Iraq. This is tantamount to confirming that the US was aware of detailed activity on the part of ISIS’ entire leadership at the earliest stages – & so the question arises, did the US, via the CIA or other affiliated agencies, participate or even manage that organizing activity? There is no question in my mind what the answer to this question is, just as with the Russian speaking contingent of ISIS was organized/commandeered by the elder brother of Tarkhan Baritashvili, a.k.a abu Umar al-Shishani, or Omar the Chechen, who had been in the Georgian military & participated in the was on south Ossetia in 2008. Umar Shishani was then given a cover story of having been discharged from the Georgian military so that his presence in Syria & Iraq as a publicly promoted ISIS commander could not be formally associated with a NATO aspiring member state. Shishani was supposedly killed, his elder brother however, who was reported to be on ISIS’ shura council, its governing body, turned up only a few months ago in Ukraine under the name Cezar Tokosashvili, a false name & gave him a faked biography to cover up who he really is. What was he doing in Ukraine & why was he arrested? Well, clearly surviving Russian speakers from ISIS are being sent to Ukraine to fight in an eventual was against Russia, or the Donbass, or both, only he was arrested because clearly some element in the Ukrainian authorities feared he would be used to mobilize a force in a potential civil conflict in Ukraine. Going back to Der Ezzor, the main reason ISIS were not able to set up there was that they alienated one of the major local tribes early on, al-Shaitat, & killed many of their members, securing their loyalty to the Syrian state & government, where they fought heroically up to the liberation of the area. No thanks to the US though, that did much & more to secure Deir Ezzor for ISIS. Now it seems they have taken on one of the main PMU forces & that does not bode well for them. The drama in the Mid East continues.
Super sadly I predicted it:
Soleimani killed in Baghdad.
yes, although here is a comment by an Iranian –
Iran has many millions Qassem Soleimani the great martyr, the soul of resistance against Western imperialism. ❤️✊✊
This was something that many of us knew it is going to happen.
That is why he was called by Ayatollah Khamenei the living martyr.
Nevertheless, his lost is like a very deep wound in the heart of not only Iranian revolutionaries but also all those who are part of International resistance against the western hegemony.
We have to remember that the martyr Qassem Soleimani was looking forward to being a Martyr and also remember that his death and blood as he and all other martyrs wish is going to strengthen the resistance and will produce many more brave men and women who will fill their places.
for the same reason, all of us should be even more united and stronger in defeating the evil of western imperialism and the Zionist/Wahhabi criminals.
Suleiman does not fear death .He always walks around and never wear a bullet vest. Your predictions are meaningless because you don’t know how religious and tribal allegiance are done in the middle east. Suleimani is only responsible for the quds forces. Iran does not control Lebanese Hezbollah .Kataib-Hizballah is part of the PMU so is Harakat Hizbullah al Nujaba another shia millitia.
The PMU was create when Ayatollah al Sistaani (not Iran) gave a fatwa and called people to protect the shrines and stand up to isis. The PMU is two million man strong(well,that is how much showed up after the Fatwa) and it includes many of Iraki desert tribes not just shia. Iraki Christians also fight alongside the PMU.
Killing Suleimani is not smart at all because more brigades will be created and named after him.How many brigade Hezbollah created after the death of Imad Mougniyeh in Syria ?
“the Netherlands ($27.7B), Germany ($19.9B), Belarus ($18.5B)”
Most of what the Netherlands imports from Russia ends up in Germany.
Most of what Belarus imports from Russia ends up elsewhere including Ukraine.