Over the past few days the events in the Ukraine have seen a fantastic acceleration and many important events have simultaneously taken place. I will try to look at them one by one.
- In Kiev, the leaders of the insurgency have taken full control of the Parliament and immediately passed laws revoking the official status of the Russian language.
- The political leaders of the insurgency have gone to the Maidan to obtain the approval of the proposed members of the new government.
- Just as Ms Nuland had ordered, Iatseniuk has taken the post of Prime Minister
- On the Maidan itself, deep differences are now opposing different parts of the crowd.
- The neo-Nazi leader of the “Maidan security forces” and one of the founders of the Freedom Party, Andrei Parubii, becomes chief of the Security Council.
- The leader of the neo-Nazi Right Sector. Dmitri Iarosh, has become Deputy chief of the Security Council.
- The rest of the new government are mostly supporters of ex-President Yushchenko in other words: loyal US agents.
- The new regime has disbanded the riot police thereby liquidating the last force capable of maintaining law and order in the regions controlled by the insurgents. Now is mob rule, pure and simple.
- The local currency is in free fall, Iatseniuk claims that $35’000’000’000 are immediately needed to avoid a default. The full debt is $170’000’000’000.
- In the regime controlled areas, “expropriations” (assault & robbery) are taking place everywhere and criminals rule the street.
- Yanukovich has been exfiltrated from the Ukraine by Russian security forces (more about that later)
- The Parliament of Tatarstan and the World Congress of Tatars has appealed to the Crimea Tatars to basically stop the crap (it was said in more police terms). Kudos for the wisdom of these two organizations!
- Unidentified armed men have taken over the building of the Crimean Parliament at 4AM only to make sure that this time the elected members of this parliament could enter the building and convene a meeting. A Russian flag was raised over the Parliament building
- Kharkov governor Mikhail Dobkin has resigned his post to run for President of the Ukraine on May 25th.
- The Crimean Parliament has taken over all the functions of the central government and has announced a referendum on the future of Crimean to be held on May 25th.
- The newly elected mayor of Sevastopol has met with the Commander in Chief of the Black Sea Fleet. Both men has declared that no violence of any kind will be tolerated.
- New popular defense militias have been formed in Crimea and their numbers are estimated at somewhere between 5’000-15’000 men organized in platoons. They have taken control of all the key roads and are now filtering traffic for any “visitors” from the insurgency-controlled areas.
- Senior members of the Russian Parliament have visited the Crimea to express their support for the local people and hold consultations with their Crimean colleagues.
- In Russia the opinions are split as to what to do: Vladimir Zhirinovksy and his LDPR Party say that Russia should stay out of it but not pay a single Ruble to the Ukrainians. The Communists want Russia to bring the issue to the UNSC. The “Just Russia” Party (most “moderate”) are expressing full support for the people of the Crimea and say that Russia has to intervene and assist them. All-in-all, the takeover by over neo-Nazis in Kiev seems to be triggering a mix of disgust and rage which will put a lot of pressure on the Kremlin to do something.
So what about the Kremlin? Actually, I think that I am beginning to discern what I believe is a multi-tiered response strategy which the Kremlin will conduct simultaneously:
1) Legal level:
By getting out Yaunk and allowing to seek refuge in Russia the Kremlin has made sure that the last legitimately elected President of the Ukraine would be physically available to challenge any and all decisions of the new regime, the insurgent-controlled Parliament and the nationalist government. Yanuk is clearly politically dead, but in legal terms he actually is an extremely powerful and important actor which should be kept alive.
2) Ukrainian level:
The (now ex-) governor of Kharkov, Mikhail Dobkin, took a “discrete” trip to Russia and came back with the decision to resign as governor and to run for President. First, the idea to run in an election controlled by the insurgents might appear stupid, but think again. First, in the totally unlikely event of a halfway decent election he would most likely get elected (most Ukrainians do not support the insurgents). Second, is the election is carefully “managed” Dobkin will be able to challenge it. Third, by the simple fact of running he can force the insurgent-controlled media (especially the TV) to give him air time to debunk the nationalist propaganda. So all in all, this is a very slick move.
3) In Crimea – political level:
For the Crimea I would say that it is a done deal: it will become an independent state in May. That state will then have options open to itself. If, by some totally unexpected and basically impossible miracle, Dobkin becomes elected, the Crimea can agree to a status quo ante but with the clear understanding that this will be a federative arrangement the Crimea can leave at any time. If some crazy nationalist is “elected” then the Crimea will break all ties with the Ukraine and join the Economic Union with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia as an independent state.
4) In Crimea – security level:
Russia will use force to defend the Crimea if needed. The preferred solution is to assist the local authorities to defend themselves by providing funds, weapons (if needed), expertise (if needed), intelligence (if needed), etc. But in most cases, that will not be needed simply because the locally based Black Sea Fleet can provide it all. At most, the Ukies can send the kind of mobs they used in Kiev. In contrast, the Black Sea Fleet can engage the 810th Independent Naval Infantry Brigade the 382nd Independent Naval Infantry Battalion and even the 102nd Independent Detachment of Navy Spetsnaz (see their emblem on picture), that is something like 1300-1400 elite soldiers all commanded by battle-hardened and experienced officers, backed by artillery, airpower, armor, etc. In fact, I expect that local authorities, police forces (including the local Berkut and the popular self-defense militias will be able to handle any “visitors” from the insurgency by themselves, without any help from the Black Sea Fleet. Bottom line: the insurgents will never control Crimea.
5) Eastern Ukraine:
That’s were things become far more murky. My sense is that the Kremlin is adopting a “wait and see” attitude towards the eastern Ukraine waiting to see what happens on a local level. The core principle behind the Kremlin’s policy is “we only help those who help themselves and deserve our help”. Crimea is a perfect example of this approach. The fact is that the nationalists do have a strong presence in Kharkov, Dniepropetrovsk or Poltava so the outcome there is far more delicate to predict.
6) Rest of the Ukraine:
Here I think that the correct policy is self-evident: first, let the crazies fight each other to their heart’s content. Let them run the already ruined economy into the ground, let them see how long their can survive by singing the national anthem an screaming “Бий жидів та москалів – Україна для українців” (beat the Jews and the Russians – the Ukraine for the Ukrainians). Let the EU and the US come up with $35’000’000’000 to pay for this color-coded revolution and avoid a default, and then let them manage this new “popular and pro-western” regime. And once they all run out of money, wait for them to call the Kremlin and ask for help. And then, basically buy them off, one by one, factory by factory, politician by politician, oligarch by oligarch, region by region. Russia owes these Russia-hating Nazis *nothing* and it will give them nothing for free. The Ukies will try to retaliate by messing around with the Russian pipelines going through the Ukraine, but that is not a viable strategy: it hurts Europe first and foremost, and Russia has built two pipelines bypassing the Ukraine anyway. Eventually, the Ukraine will break up with the west going to the EU and NATO and the Crimea to Russia.
As for China, it is already suing the new regime for breach of commercial contracts (I think, just heard/saw that somewhere on the news). China will follow the Russian lead on this one.
7) The upcoming violence in the eastern Ukraine:
Barring a miracle, there will be a lot of violence in the eastern provinces of the Ukraine. At this point in time I do not see a Russian military intervention to protect the Russian-speaking population which will have to defend itself. Russia will provide a) political support b) financial support and, possibly, a limited amount of c) covert support.
That’s about it, at least for the time being. I might have to correct/refine this analysis.
As for the US/NATO, I don’t believe that they will intervene militarily. There will be A LOT of Russia-bashing, a lot of pro-Ukie propaganda, millions of US dollars will continue to flow into the pockets of the insurgency leaders, but eventually the US and its EU puppets will have to come to term with the fact that they failed to boot out the Black Sea Fleet from the Crimea and that the Crimea is going to Russia instead as a direct blowback to the color revolution the US and EU unleashed in Kiev.
What the US/EU will not do is to recognize any type of pro-Russian authority anywhere in the Ukraine. So the country might be split like Georgia or the two Koreas are today. That’s ok, Russia and Crimea couldn’t care less – let them have their own version of Kosovo for a change :-)
What do you think? Does the above make sense?
Many thanks and kind regards,
The Saker
Great blog; I just found it two or three days ago, linked-to in a comment at the following site: http://www.cluborlov.blogspot.com. You may be interested in the blog, as Dmitry Orlov, the guy who runs it, is both Russian and quite interesting in his own right.
I proceed from the premise – shared by almost no one, anywhere, of any political persuasion – that the US enjoys nuclear primacy vis a vis both Russia and China.
As such, I think the US will operate in basically an unrestrained and seemingly reckless manner as the crisis continues to unfold – though only SEEMINGLY reckless, since they hold nuclear primacy, and they know that Putin knows this, and they also know that Putin is neither reckless nor a fool.
As such, I predict that you will be wrong about the Crimea: In the long run, some how, some way, the US will unleash its Neo-Nazi proxy dogs in the Crimea – and Putin will do nothing but bluster, and maybe hold a few more harmless military exercises as a desperate PR exercise on the world stage.
These PR exercises will prove an ineffectual gambit: Putin will see Crimea fall to the Neo-Nazi thugs (and, by extension, to the capitalist looters of the EU-US nexus), and he will watch in abject humiliation as the Black Sea Fleet is cut off from Russian back-up and reinforcement.
Since Putin is militarily powerless, his only weapon is the marshaling of world public opinion against the US aggressors. It worked in Syria, but it will not work this time. The major global hegemonist factions in the US foreign policy establishment are now united, and implacably determined to eliminate Putin – and Russia – as an independent force in world affairs.
The long-standing infighting between the Rockefeller-Trilateralists, on the one hand (whose principal frontmen have been Zbig and Kiss-my-assinger, along with Carter and Obama), and the Neo-Cons, on the other, has now been settled and resolved. Facilitating this rapprochement has been the putting-out-to-pasture of the most obnoxious and idiotic of the Neocons from the Bush years. As a result of this resolution, a confirmed neo-Con like Nuland is happily able to play a key role in the administration of a Rockefeller-Trilateralist like Obama.
They hold global nuclear primacy, and they will stop at NOTHING to succeed in their aim of eliminating Putin, and Russia, as an independent player on the world stage.
That’s where I see all this going in the long run. What do you think?
How is Putin militarily powerless? What an absurd claim
You seem to hate Putin : your language of ‘powerless ‘ humiliated etc shows contempt for president Putin
Point (6) does match with my view expressed on the 25/02. Excellent analysis and summary.
Thank you Saker that sounds very likely.
As for “Nestorian” and other my-dad-is-bigger-than-your-teens, sounds like you would have major problem finding Russia on a map, let alone knowing anything about it´s capacities, other than what CNN tells you before you go to bed so i suggest you stay there boy…
@ Nestorian
Your probably right, usually the one with the “pointiest” stick runs the bullie show. Pretty grim Outlook.
Greetings from a Swede
Saker
Thoughtful analysis. Correct about the Chinese suing Ukraine. Read a pretty good article on it, but cant find it now. The Chinese recently also made a political statement on the Ukraine that is essentially the same as those from Russia.
It’s interesting the diplomatic strategy Russia is using. The basics being that a political agreement was reached in the Ukraine between the Ukraine government, the insurgents and the EU/USA, with the EU/USA agreeing to enforce the agreement among the insurgents. The Ukraine government followed the agreement faithfully, while the insurgents broke it immediately and then seized control of the Kiev government in a violent coup. And that this coup was supported, encouraged and at least partly run by the EU/USA. Therefore, the coup government is illegal and it’s actions are crimes and that the EU/USA are fully complicit in that and must bear responsibility for these crimes, as well. In other words, the Russians are saying the insurgents/EU/USA are essentially behaving like criminals here and that is how they should be treated.
The zionazis obviously want some sort of Russian military intervention. Their almost immediate threats this am after the Crimea self defense forces acts show that quite clearly. They sitting on edge, waiting for any “sign” they can use in their propaganda to demonise Russia as an invader, like in 2008.
The Russians are not falling into that zionist trap and are sticking to strickly legal remedies. The frustration simmering just below the surface in ziofascist/western fascists circles about this is palpable.
Again I’m reminded of Putin’s judo background. ;)
вот так
test
nestorian
The Book of Nestor the Priest (c.900 CE)[1] is the earliest surviving anti-Christian Jewish polemic
not every day you get visited by the inteligence agencies looking for some help
id be talking about the lesser spotted crimean sparrow for a few days if i was you
thanks hadrian
Saker,
The whole situation in Ukraine reminds me of an old joke:
“Citizens and compatriots! We all know how our previous corrupt, inept and self-serving government poised our country on the brink of a chasm. But fear not! With these historic elections, we have now taken a giant step forward!”
On a more relevant note, it’s interesting to see how the hereto passive mass of Crimea’s “russian speakers” is suddenly crystallizing into Russians. And how that gives the RF a base to act on, vs. what is occurring in Kharkov or Donetsk. After all, one cannot support something that isn’t standing in the first
place.
It’s also ironic how the West has shot itself in the foot and got stuck supporting a clearly illegitimate government opposed by a legitimately elected president in exile. All it had to do was wait until the 2015 elections, and it would all have worked… Instead, the whole thing exploded prematurely, and the EU/US team got splattered by the flying crap.
What a show… with more to come.
Wonderful, thoughtful post. Your analysis makes perfect sense. Russia continues to take the high road and Putin’s words about international law and justice continue to be applied in real life situations. That in itself is exceedingly rare for any politician. Thus Russia’s reputation continues upward for much of the world and the U.S./EU propaganda outlets (NYT, CNN BBC, etc.) are increasingly ignored.
I find it hard to believe that the U.S. policy towards Ukraine is as stupid and self-destructive as it seems. Certainly the junk yard dogs like McCain, Kerry and Nuland are behaving as expected, but could the real thinkers (if there are still some in Washington) be so naive to think Russia will come blundering in like they once did in Afghanistan?
To Nestorian – whether your assertion that the U.S. is stronger than Russia regarding nuclear weapons, mutual destruction still applies in my opinion. The size of one’s nuclear dick is not so important.
Regarding “conventional” military strength, even if the neocons had their way, the U.S. has about as much chance of winning a real shooting war in Ukraine as Russia would have winning one in Puerto Rico. In any case, the recent American wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and their proxy wars in Libya, Syria don’t inspire confidence to any neutral thinking person.
Russia did not blunder into Afghanistan / they were called in by the afghan govt out if desperation . Why are people so poorly informed ?
What are the cultural differences between the young population of East Ukraine and Crimea? By young I mean 18-35 y/o. I know some folks from eastern Ukraine and they seem to live fantasies about Europe and the US. I think there is a lot of fear in eastern Ukraine rather than rage.
Hi Vineyardsaker,
I am one of those who have been reading in this blog for a while now, and with great interest.
Perhaps it will amuse you to hear that today I have written a comment on your „Follow up to my post etc.“ Suffice it to say that I was quite a bit pissed off with the – as I perceived it – constant arguments and quarrelings on religious topics in your blog. Well, I have changed my mind about actually dropping my post (there are too many posts anyway, even without mine).
To be precise, I‘ve changed my mind when I read the above recapitulation of the current events in the Ukraine. It must be said: I think you have an extraordinary ability of summing up a complex political situation, clearly put in order in a few points. I can certainly not call myself an insider in these affairs, but what you are writing seems absolutely logical and believable, and it concurs with the few other sources of information that I feel I can trust in these matters.
So, once again, thanks for providing us with these analyses – just like the ones about the old and the new Cold War. You are doing us a great service indeed. These pieces are truly excellent – as I am sure you have been told many times before.
And sure, as far as I‘m concerned you can write as long, and as much as you like on Orthodox and other, not-to-be-named forms of Christianity and its faults and sins of the past and presence. I don‘t in any way want to ridicule it, I am sure you have very good reasons for your bitterness. (As a sidenote, I have actually started reading some of Romanides‘ texts out of curiosity. This is certainly not going to be my main concern though.)
But please, please, do come back as often as possible to THIS kind of rational, analytical and penetrative writing about the current events. It is GREATLY appreciated!!!
Cheers!
Not confirmed yet.
About 150 members of Crimea’s Berkut security force were deployed Feb. 27 to the Perekop Isthmus to prevent Ukrainian troops from entering the peninsula, a law enforcement source said, Interfax-Ukraine reported. The isthmus connects Crimea with the rest of the country. Interfax-Ukraine added that it had not officially confirmed the statement.
correct analysis. crimea is the key and now is in the russian hand
Crimean premier considers Viktor Yanukovich to be Ukraine’s legitimate president
“We consider Viktor Yanukovich to be a legitimate president and will continue following his instructions,” Aksyonov said.
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/721327
More ziofascist panic:
Ukraine turmoil LIVE UPDATES http://rt.com/news/kiev-clashes-rioters-police-571/
“17:06 GMT:
Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, will urgently draft a new language bill, according to the press service of PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk’s Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) party.
The law will be “completely balanced,” promised acting Ukrainian President Aleksandr Turchinov, who ordered the law to be prepared.
The language bill will “take into account the interests of the east and the west of Ukraine, of all the ethnic groups and national minorities,” Turchinov said.”
And hadrian 27 February, 2014 15:08
Well spotted. The “support” post (Greetings from a Swede 27 February, 2014 14:57) is another encoded web sayanim spamming technique.
вот так
Promises by a thug and coup
Master have no validity
I don’t want to be misunderstood – I am NOT by any means writing in an approving sense of what I see the US-EU nexus (and principally the US, at that) doing in the Ukraine. I am just calling unfolding events as I see them.
Also, US shortcomings in recent conventional wars do not ultimately matter if they have nuclear primacy for the following reason: Insofar as the US enjoys nuclear primacy vis a vis any other nation on the globe, it is free to blow it to nuclear oblivion with complete military impunity if it so desires. To me, that represents the ultimate in raw earthly power.
No one disputes that the US is in just this position with regard to every country on the planet except Russia and China. The 64 trillion dollar question at the present juncture of history is whether the US is also in this position vis a vis Russia and China.
My premise in analyzing events in the Ukraine is that the US IS in such a position vis a vis Russia and China. The US nuclear capability (and also virtually all other relevant non-nuclear military capabilities) are so far in advance of those of Russia (badly degraded now, and greatly inferior to US capacities even in their prime) and of China (never more than miniscule and primitive by comparison to US capabilities) that the US can also effectively blow both those countries to smithereens without needing to fear any direct military repercussions whatsoever.
At any moment of its choosing, the US could take Russia AND China (and both at once, if necessary) by complete surprise with an overwhelming, instantly destructive nuclear first strike, before these two countries even had time to consider a reprisal strike.
That may sound like an outlandish assertion, but I suspect that the Saker, with his background in military analysis and intelligence, will at least regard this as a proposition open to serious debate, even if he disagrees with me; or even if he agrees, but only with serious qualifications.
For what it’s worth, this claim has been advanced in a serious way in a series of articles in FOREIGN AFFAIRS by Keir Lieber and Darryl Press, beginning in the March 2006 issue. As the house organ of the Council on Foreign Relations, this is probably the leading periodical publication of the US foreign policy establishment.
I had the opportunity to have lunch with Keir Lieber a few years ago, and he informed me that this view of things is rather widely taken for granted within the precincts of the Pentagon and similar places.
Did you see this analysis, Saker?
http://www.voltairenet.org/article182329.html
Might be a surprise for Poland in store.
Info from Sweden:
This is what our public radio says:
– Very heavy armed men have taken Krim paliament and put up the russian flag
– Parliament have displaced regional government, and put Aksjonov in place as prime minister
-Ruslana Lyzjytiko is in Sweden and talks as a eyewitness from Maidan, shows her sniper-killed friends pink mobile with a bullet hole
– The rest is on and on and on about what Russia does or dont.
Not a word about eu, US, lawlessness, neonazis und so weiter.
I`m extremly ashamed of all our media and especially public
Meanwhile:
(same source)
“20:57 GMT:
Thousands will be attending an “In defense of Kharkov” rally scheduled for Saturday on March 1, mayor of the second-largest city of Ukraine Gennady Kernes hopes.
“We need to show those who stand contrary to our beliefs, that we love our city and will not let it get pillaged and robbed,” Kernes told the crowd at the central square, calling on the public to avoid violence by all means.”
Hopefully, the beginnings of the successful strategy by the people of Crimea spreading to the rest of the eastern regions. The response from the ziofascist colonies:
20:23 GMT: Washington no longer considers Viktor Yanukovich as the president of Ukraine, White House press secretary Jay Carney announced as he “abdicated his responsibilities” and “undermined his legitimacy” by leaving Kiev.
“He was elected president,” Carney told reporters. “He has abdicated his responsibilities by — shortly after signing an agreement to bring an end to the violence and take the actions that so many in the world had called on him to take, which was to establish a unity government, to end the violence and move towards early elections — he packed up his belongings and disappeared.”
21:50 GMT: Canada has welcomed the appointment of a new “legitimate government” in Kiev as “a vital step forward in restoring democracy and normalcy to Ukraine.”
Shows that such a resistance strategy by the people in the Ukraine is one of the major zionazi fears because their only recourse is to resort to terrorist violence, which would mean a loss of all perceived legitimacy on their part (as happened with their running of terrorism against Syria and their open wars against Iraq and Afghanistan).
вот так
A note for history. Ukrainian Greco-Catholic Church, which was instrumental in the fascist armed insurrection in Kiev, is now entering the fray by actively blaming Russia in stoking civil war in Ukraine:
http://zn.ua/UKRAINE/glava-ugkc-obvinil-rossiyu-v-razzhiganii-grazhdanskoy-voyny-v-ukraine-139941_.html
Nestorian’s comments are pure spin. He gives himself away when he says,
“Putin will see Crimea fall to the Neo-Nazi thugs (and, by extension, to the capitalist looters of the EU-US nexus), and he will watch in abject humiliation as the Black Sea Fleet is cut off from Russian back-up and reinforcement.”
The nuclear primacy is nonsense as TicoTiger points out.
Additionally, the US did not pull back from attacking Syria because of world opinion. They demonstrably don’t give a shit about world opinion. The US after much talk about a short sharp surgical strike against Syria, fired two missiles at Damascus from the Mediterranean Sea over the heads of the Russian Fleet parked off the coast of Syria. The Russians shot them down demonstrating superior missile technology in the process. The Russians also notably demonstrated a willingness to confront the US militarily.
The US were then handed the Syrian Chemical Weapons deal which they had to take to save face. The march to world dominance by the US was stopped in its tracks by the Russian Fleet.
The Russian Fleet is supported by the naval base in the Crimea. So that is the target now so that Syria can be attacked and then onto Iran.
I don’t think the US Administration will prevail but they will try everything short of direct military confrontation as they are both desperate and filled with hubris.
They reason like addicts.
TicoTiger:
“but could the real thinkers (if there are still some in Washington)”
Surely you jest: when did we last have anyone who could think more than six months ahead? And as for learning from the past, well, first one needs to know, understand and remember it, and we don’t do that well either. But we sure can destroy; we’ve done that well right from the start.
Under our current government, Canada’s actions on the world stage should almost always be interpreted as the official Neocon position.
That MAY change with the next election in 2015, because we’ll probably elect a new PM from the French-speaking part of Canada, where Neocon ideology has never been popular.
But until then, Canada = Neocons in foreign policy. And our media currently is very much like Reinfeldt’s description from Sweden.
I think your analysis makes sense and I totally agree that the US will not intervene militarily.
I can’t help not thinking though that what the US is trying to do in this case is to keep Russia occupied while they are cutting down on military spending and completing their pivot to Asia.
This means that they don’t care about Crimea ending up in russian hands provided that a long-term conflict is involved that will pre-occupy Russia.
Worst case scenario for them they end up with a couple of bases close to Russia and cheap labour and resources to further decrease labour costs in the EU.
Seems like Putin’s course of action you have highlighted is the optimum course of action, but I wonder what the pros/cons would be if they managed to draw in the US to intervene directly.
@Nestorian,
The Lieber / Press analysis was of dubious value even at the time when it was published in 2006. This understanding “dubious” as a polite euphemism.
Regarding the ability to effect nuclear reprisal on US territory following surprise US nuclear attack “out of the blue” that is outside of any international crisis, ensuring nuclear deterrence, three countries presently possess such ability. They are:
1. Russia
– Russia resumed continuous SSBN patrol in 2012 http://russiandefpolicy.wordpress.com/2012/02/05/ssbn-patrols/
meaning at least 1 SSBN with 16 MIRV SLBMs is at sea at any moment, protected from surprise attack. Russian SSBNs are not the most silent, however
– this form of deterrence is reinforced by mobile ICBMs and long-range bombers, a portion of each would survive a US first strike
– Not counting the fixed ICBMs which the US indeed may take out entirely within a first strike. Note however that the US leadership would have to run a risk of failure and several fixed ICBMs remaining
2. China
Chinese built very large complex of underground interconnected tunnels to protect their second strike force (mobile DF-31A ICBM). Not only is the precise map of these tunnels secret, at least part of it is deep enough so that it cannot be destroyed by nuclear strike on the surface.
This method enables survival of reprisal capability even in the event of US nuclear first strike
3. France
France maintains continuous patrol by at least 1 and generally 2 SSBNs. These boats are as silent as anything built by America (less noisy than background sea noise) meaning no SSNs can stalk them, and they maintain reprisal capability by at least 16 MIRV SLBMs even in the event of US out of the blue first strike
Note: Britain also has 4 SSBNs like France, but is not on the list because it is technically and operationnally dependent on the US and America has a practical if not official veto on British nuclear use
Alexis TK27,
Yes, the Lieber/Press article from 2006 is out of date, to be sure. But as capabilities have advanced in the interim in all the ways you mention, it stands to reason that so too they have in the US as well, in the interim.
But you evidently don’t regard it as a serious piece of analysis to begin with. From talking to the author about it, I certainly think he does! But if it is not, then why was it published by an outfit such as Foreign Affairs? For its propaganda value? But if only for its propaganda value, then why does one of the authors clearly accept his own basic conclusions as serious and defensible?
I am no professional military analyst, so I am certainly open to instruction by those who are. That’s part of why I posted here in the first place.
Saker, if you are knowledgeable in the area of nuclear primacy, could you do a full post on it?
@Alexis TK27
Ad.2. I hope the Yamantau complex is not for keeping dignitaries’ silverware…
Saker, if you are knowledgeable in the area of nuclear primacy, could you do a full post on it?
Trying to turn a Red Herring into a nose ring, Nestorian?
It’s been suggested that there is a lot of oil and gas under Ukraine, which western oil companies want to frack, to compete with Russia for a while.
Political turmoil is expected to cause much disruption and misery in Ukraine, and the neonazis will be blamed. Thus there may be worldwide indifference, or even enthusiasm, if in a year or so Russia, USA and EU quietly agree to suppress them, probably using Russian troops.
Then American, European and Chinese companies cheaply buy up Ukrainian assets such as farmland and oil and gas rights, and Russia is allowed to take the Crimea and as much of the rest of eastern Ukraine as it wants.
How about Democracy as the public relations of Kleptocracy?
Could the US/EU also be paying some Russians to create havoc in the Crimea? If so, then the US/EU is really trying to cause a war.
I hope it’s just happening spontaneously.
Breaking News:
A group of armed men in military uniforms have seized Simferopol international airport in the capital of Crimea, Interfax reports.
According to eyewitnesses at least three KamAZ trucks without license plates drove to the airport with about 50 armed men. They are reportedly equipped similar to the group of local ethnic Russian ‘self-defense squads’ that had taken control of and raised Russian flags over the buildings of the Crimean parliament and government in the region’s capital.
At first the group cordoned off the airport’s domestic flights terminal, but then pushed forward, according to Interfax. So far the motive for the takeover remains unclear.
Yep I think you’ve got it pretty right. Only thing you missed is that Crimea is very defensible esp when you have a navy to help out. Almost an island.
I have the strong feeling that USA/EU/NATO is rather stunned by what they have got hold of and don’t know what to do about it.
@Nestorian: Saker, if you are knowledgeable in the area of nuclear primacy, could you do a full post on it?
Ok. let me offer you a compromise of sorts. Here is the deal: no, I will not make a full post on it but, yes, I will basically reply to your question. No, I will not provide the data to prove my assertion, but I will tell you that nuclear force planning used to be something I studied with some of the very best in the USA, so I know what I am talking about. Deal? I assume a yes from you and here we go:
I) The US and Russia have very similar capabilities. Neither side can conduct a disarming strike on the other. In other words, the side which would strike first could not avoid being hit back. The counter-strike of both sides would be powerful enough to basically destroy all the key infrastructure of the other country. No side has the means to stop/intercept/destroy the retaliatory counter-strike. In other words – in case of a full scale nuclear exchange both countries would basically be destroyed.
II) The US and Russia are the two only countries will a full-spectrum nuclear capability ranging from small tactical nukes to ICBMs. They are the only one which can follow an escalation throughout the full spectrum. The other countries have a much more limited capability which limits their options should deterrence fail.
III) The USA and Russia are also the only ones with enough satellites to detect support nuclear operations (detection, targeting, etc.). Their forces are also much more survivable.
Conclusion #1: Only the USA and Russia are nuclear superpowers
Conclusion #2: They cannot use nukes against each other
So, I am sorry to say, you are 100% wrong about what you believe is a US nuclear primacy. Furthermore, TicoTiger is correct “The size of one’s nuclear dick is not so important.” – at least between the US and Russia.
He also got another one spot on when he writes “Regarding “conventional” military strength, even if the neocons had their way, the U.S. has about as much chance of winning a real shooting war in Ukraine as Russia would have winning one in Puerto Rico. In any case, the recent American wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and their proxy wars in Libya, Syria don’t inspire confidence to any neutral thinking person.”
Sorry!
The fact is that the US is nowhere as powerful as its propaganda would have you believe. When is the last time the US won against a halfway capable enemy anyway? Korea? (I know, they did not win, but they did push them back, and they fought very well in tough conditions).
The US as a world class nuclear capability, but against Russia it is useless. It also has a world class Air Force, but air forces do no win wars alone and its aircraft are getting very old except for a few F-22s. It has a huge and sophisticated Navy, but the missions it can execute are limited by geography. As for the US Army and Marines, they are actually pretty good, but vastly overstretched. It special operations forces suck badly (but nobody will believe me on that one, I know) I don’t blame them for the weakness of the USA, I blame the politicians which put them in an impossible situation (except that moron Saddam who made an old US military wet dream come true: to fight AirLand Battle against a clueless forces).
Botton line: the US is nowhere near the military hyperpower you seemed to believe it to be. Sorry :-(
Cheers,
The Saker
I am very glad I have found this blog, particularly in light of current events. Trying to decipher from US-based news reporting has been maddening. I was referred here from a commentor at Steve Sailer’s blog.
Thank you for your updates and analysis. This is very sad for the people of the Ukraine. The videos of these thugs going around and harassing people in sickening. This whole mess has been made worse by the EU/USA/IMF/NWO/banksters and billionaires like Soros and the oligarchs. The people of the Ukraine would be insane to cast their lot with the EU/USA. Just look at Greece, Ireland, Spain and others who are now slaves to the IMF and banksters.
The same gangster mentality using proxys and paramilitaries like the USA/EU/Saudis are using in Syria and were used to create chaos in Libya, Egypt and Tunisia.
Hopefully, Putin and Russia will stay strong against these gangsters. I am sick at what America has become.
Disgusted American
Follow up on USA Air Force. i agree with your comments. The F-22 is newer but it is not that good. The newer F-35 is even worse. The military industrial complex and Pentagon have become so corrupt that many of the weapons the USA has are compromised. The F-35 is insanely expensive and is junk. The F-22 was killed because it is expensive and is not very good. The older F-16 is a better plane. The F-15 and F-18 are old too. The U.S. public was sold on stealth but it does not work. Russian radar and even many older radars can see stealth. Stealth was an idea by a Russian physicist Pyotr Ufimtsev. Lockheed took the idea but it does not really work. The co-developer of the F-16 and A-10, Pierre Sprey, said stealth is a scam. He also has said the F-35 is junk.
The bigger is issue is how good is Russians newer anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles. It appears the US Navy did not want to find out off the coast of Syria this summer. As far as ICBMs. They cannot be used and either side is probably equal. The USA has mentioned secret kinetic weapons, space based systems and lasers on naval ships and on the ground. Who knows but Russia probably has a few tricks up it’s sleeve. The American public will not allow Obama to start another war and the Europeans have no real army to go into the Ukraine. Forget NATO.
American – who sick of what America has become
Nestorian’s scenario and hypothesis have already been disproven by the Russo-Georgian War of 2008. It’s why NATO will not intervene militarily and Crimea is already lost. Anyway, great analysis here Saker, thanks! Your point on the usefulness of the universally loathed Yanukovitch is especially well taken.
Btw, I just love how the Crimean Berkut pulled a Maidan on the Crimean Parliament and were then comically labelled “terrorists” by the illegitimate Kievan regime. Also, I saw an interview with Aksyonov on Russian television last night. This guy is the real deal, very charismatic, tough and saying all the right things. Just the type of leader Russians love. I dare the Banderites to try and take him down, double dare them!
Nestorian came here from Club Orlov (Ukraine = Eastern Poland + Western Russia), where Andrey Tymofeiuk’s essay was almost the polar opposite of the Saker’s analysis (hard-line “barbarous dictator Yanukovych”, Kremlin masterminds, feckless EU, inconvenienced Americans and British). Yet the commenter Garryk declared both had equal merit. This might explain why Nestorian was surprised by his hostile reception.
Good article,
Probably a lot of covert support in the east but not too blatant.
There is billions of tons of coal in the Donets region which is in the east of the Ukraine. Bear in mind that Germany is dismantling many of it’s nuclear plants. They will need energy from somewhere and I would not be suprised if this did not play a part of it. Hence the caution by the west for Russia to stay out of this.
I don’t think the goal by the EU is a partition, they want it all.
https://dublinsmickdotcom.wordpress.com/2014/02/23/frau-susan-rice-warns-russia-not-to-intervene-in-the-ukraine-the-names-change-but-the-play-is-the-same-only-the-150-us-bases-in-the-world-are-up-to-this/
Ukraine’s integration in the Eurasian Union would be problematic at best, even without the Maidan and with Yanukovych in power, given that the anti-Russian elements that now control Kiev and Western Ukraine would continuously disrupt the process, causing problems to the smooth integration of Ukraine and thus jeopardizing the entire Eurasian project at its foundation. There would be calls for secession on their side like we now see happening in the South and the East. Now however, Putin – if he plays his cards right – has a golden opportunity to take – by force or otherwise – the developed part of Ukraine that has industrial infrastructure and is economically developed – the one that really matters – which is the Southeastern, Russian-dominated part, adding to the Russian Federation and the future Eurasian Union almost half the Ukraine, 15-20 million population, key economic and industrial hubs, while letting the backward, unneeded and potentially troublesome western part starve to death and its people die on the streets waiting for “help” and “reforms” from the US-EU-IMF as it happened with Latvia, Hungary, Greece etc. Not before too long you’ll see Western Ukrainians now cheering for the Western-backed terrorist regime installed in Kiev trying to jump off fences and walls to join the Eastern part the same way more than two decades ago East Germans were trying to reach West Germany. Who said that History doesn’t have a sense of irony? This could well turn out to be a camouflaged attempt by Russia to get rid of the part of Ukraine that it considers useless and not worth risking the Eurasian Integration process for.
Thank you, Saker. But why will you not provide the data? Is it because the data is classified, or simply because it is too much trouble to do so? If the latter, could you refer me to sources on the matter that I might consult?
In this vein, I appreciated the comment of AlexisTK27, and found it very helpful. Alexis, could you refer to further sources as well?
I am not a professional military analyst, but I do consider myself a serious student of the issue. I have an ardent interest in getting to the bottom of the matter as far as this is possible to a member of the general public without access to classified information.
Also, regarding the propaganda aspect of it, in my experience, people tend to take for granted the existence of military parity between the US, Russia, and even China. It doesn’t seem to me that the US government and its press minions generally propagandize all that forcefully in this vein. If anything, my sense would be that they try to downplay it.
Articles such as the one by Lieber and Press are much more the exception than the rule, and the Lieber/Press article in particular was directed to a specialized audience. But was that specialized audience particularly in need of propaganda conditioning? It seems to me rather that this audience includes many of those who DESIGN the propaganda.
Lastly, it seems I inadvertently offended a lot of people on this site. I meant no harm. Please know that I write in defense of no earthly power, as I regard them ALL as corrupt, and many as demonically evil.
The only POLITICAL hope for humanity is Christ’s Second Coming.
@Nestorian: But why will you not provide the data? Is it because the data is classified, or simply because it is too much trouble to do so? If the latter, could you refer me to sources on the matter that I might consult?
Oh, there is absolutely nothing classified about that – its all in the public domain, declared and verified by both sides. No, its just that I really am swamped with work and don’t have the time to look up the sources of which there are plenty: IISS, SIPRI, UN, http://www.ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report, http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/index.html, etc. It’s all out there, at least on the bean-counting level. For analysis, you will have to look for yourself, but there is plenty out there too.
HTH, Cheers,
The Saker
How hard do you think the central authorities will fight to prevent a vote in the Crimea? Also, do you expect them to vote to void the Russian naval agreement? If so, what would Russia do? Finally, do you expect the Ukrainian army to help put down the East and South?
Paul
NATO troops landing in Western Ukraine? http://3rm.info/43836-smi-voyska-nato-vysadilis-na-zapade-ukrainy.html
Great read…the primary post. Many of the comments are equally lucid and entertaining.
Just one comment from someone who has dealt with “intelligence trolls” for over a decade.
Comments like “Thank you, Saker. But why will you not provide the data? Is it because the data is classified, or simply because it is too much trouble to do so? If the latter, could you refer me to sources on the matter that I might consult?” are purely designed to enable inferior minds to benefit from the research of others with the EXPRESS PURPOSE of sweeping information from the net or for formulating talking points for future discourse that aids the inferior trolling mind.
We covered the Ukraine and hit most of the talking points before they were released on my radio show, Inside the Eye – Live! this past weekend (Feb 22).
To Nesterland I would say – nice try – go do your own research and figure it out yourself.
Your verbal patterns are, in an era of Internet savvy analysts, highly suspect.
Lastly, it seems I inadvertently offended a lot of people on this site. I meant no harm. Please know that I write in defense of no earthly power, as I regard them ALL as corrupt, and many as demonically evil.
Written like a Tel Aviv Sayanim fool. You also did not find the the blog “two or three days ago”…
Saker – great work, great read.
Beware the rabbies (tick) mentality…
Wow, I marvel once more about the intensely incendiary character of the ideological minefield into which I have inadvertantly stepped by posting here. Though many of you will not believe me, just let me say it, once more:
Not only do I not have a stake one way or the other in the cross-fire of polemics into which I have stuck my nose unawares, but I don’t even understand yet what the issues are.
However, I think I will hang around this blog and learn. People here clearly know what they are talking about, and they clearly also, by and large, are honest in saying what they know.
And if people get as worked up about certain things as they have, then there must be some things that really matter at stake, and such things always interest me.
And if, along the way, I can get some of you to drop your unfounded suspicions of me, then so much the better. But if not, then I can certainly live with that, too – this is certainly not the first time in my life that I have been involved in a tense and hostile discourse.
And if anyone, perchance, is interested in learning more about where I am REALLY coming from, check out the following website:
http://www.antipasministries.com
Gentlemen, it is “Ukraine” not “the Ukraine”.
You would not say “there is a revolution in the France”, so why would you say “there is revolution in the Ukraine”?
With regard to anything else, everything I have read is pure speculation. I don’t care if it is written by an American, German, Russian or an Ukrainian. There Russians and Ukrainians will have their own perspectives and know the regional history and politics much better than anybody else but they re still speculating.
Most Americans’ opinions are less than worthless. These are based on nothing but some old Hollywood movies and government propaganda. Even those that have visited Ukraine and/or Russia don’t know anything other than the superficial exposure they have gotten.
@Аnonymous: Gentlemen, it is “Ukraine” not “the Ukraine”.
Oh man, not again, will you language-Gestapo wannabes ever give up? This canard has been covered here:
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/02/the-geopolitics-of-ukrainian-conflict.html?showComment=1392989141432#c479681669784762186
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/02/the-geopolitics-of-ukrainian-conflict.html?showComment=1393199497394#c8501729857516105488
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/02/the-geopolitics-of-ukrainian-conflict.html?showComment=1393201549706#c8321961927406233408
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/02/the-geopolitics-of-ukrainian-conflict.html?showComment=1393205017447#c6105660615616191738
With regard to anything else, everything I have read is pure speculation
Guess what? That is the very purpose of this blog: intelligent speculation, exchange of opinion, analysis of current events, etc.
If you want to read “pure facts” – read a telephone book.
Now go back to play to your sandbox and let adults talk in peace.
The Saker
Apart from the rough equivalence and thus theoretical deterrence to be found in MAD, which is reason gone mad, there are other factors to consider. The game of chicken breaks down if insanity or paranoia or false perceptions take over. Furthermore, believed to be or tangible signs of an attempted surprise attack, no matter how irrational in conception or catastrophic in potential result, can lead to decisions which take on a catastrophic life of their own. The Ukraine destabilization is a very dangerous game. Some decades ago the nuclear weapons complex of the planet was described by the author of Command and Control of Nuclear Forces as “incomprehensibly complex”. Others in positions to render informed judgment have described missing the bullet of nuclear war so far as miraculous. The point is that to poke a few hegemonic-ambition sticks at the tiger is the most irresponsible of teases. The situation that prevailed before the installation of Pershing missiles in Europe in the 70s was insanely dangerous. The Pershing merely reduced Moscow’s response/consideration time in regard to a potential first strike attack to a few minutes. More recently, the installation of ‘missile shields’ in Bulgaria, Poland and Turkey only increase the danger of miscalculation on both sides. In addition, in recent years more leeway has been given to US field commanders to use nuclear weapons. And in the United States in recent months a purge of top military has been ongoing. The situation.
Again, it is the basic agenda of seeking global ‘full spectrum dominance’, hegemony, incrementally, destroy a lovely Libya here, drone kill a wedding party there, distant pain for most of us, but always with the backdrop of the risk of nuclear miscalculation elsewhere, in which what goes around comes around.
Robert Snefjella,
Just so. Your remarks touch on something else regarding the nuclear primacy issue that I had not mentioned, but that is a very relevant consideration: Even if the US hegemonists are quite wrong in the view that they hold nuclear primacy over Russia, what matters even more in some sense is whether they BELIEVE they have it. Because they will act according to what they BELIEVE, even if it is false.
Acting on this belief, they may prove to be relentless in their reckless antagonizing of Russia via their manipulations of the situation in the Ukraine. In that event, Putin may at some point find himself faced with a very difficult dilemma, to wit:
Will PUTIN find himself in a situation where he realistically US plans to launch a surprise nuclear first strike (one that they falsely believe will disable him militarily), with Putin’s only available option at defending himself being that of launching a nuclear first strike himself?
This is a very interesting post and a great summary of events. I think the discussion in comments though has gone from: what are Russia’s reasonable responses and strategies, as well as what are east and Cirmea up to? to: whose daddy is bigger and who is a bigger brat?
This primarily applies to Nestorian, who presents this peaceful, almost pius front, but in fact appears to be a blood thirsty warmonger.
I realise that some people on this blog are somehow militarily inclined and perhaps they talk about potential first strikes and nulcear primacy as a matter of curiosity – as in bread and circuses curiosity.
But I can assure you all (esp. Nestorian here) that Russia’s govt and Putin personally are incredibly level-headed and rational people, thank god – someone has to be. No one will be doing first strikes and full scale wars, not even arrogant, yet short-sighted, Americans.
Russia has a plethora of peaceful and QUIET means for dealing with this issue, and they will use them all. Also, Russia is presently buying time. More about that in my articles.
I have written 5 articles re: What is really happening in Ukraine? Including predictions. Article No.6 is coming, which will analyze the geopolitics of the situation. Please check them out here: http://futuristrendcast.wordpress.com/
To the author: Just found your blog via a comment a reader posted on my article about Ukraine situation. Want to say: great analysis of the Yanuk situation, and that of the Kharkov ex-governor running for Ukraine presidency. Agree, Russian strategy is multi-layered.
Agree – Russia is taking a wait and see position re. elections and how people will respond in east and south of Ukraine. Disagree that they are not going to support east/south fully. By fully I do not mean military intervention, unless there is no choice and US/EU stupidity goes into overdrive.
Generally, Putin/Lavrov can run circles around Obama/Kerry, therefore, time is on Russia’s side as they will simply watch US/EU burry themselves deeper and deeper. Then, US/EU will be required to clean up the mess they had created.
In the end, the chess match will end in Putin/Lavrov/Russia’s favor – invariably. More on my blog.
Thanks!
Lada Ray
@ Nestorian
Everyone reading this blog is now dumber for having read your ridiculous portrayal of the state of modern military power and capacities.
The US does have every technical advantage on a purely paper war scenario. However, you fail to take into account the human factor that is to this day the single most important one in armed conflict and struggle. The US could not possibly engage in a direct armed conflict with either Russia or China because the entire political and military structure of the US would collapse. No rational person would participate and an army under acting under duress – even with overwhelming technical and numerical supremacy – has been beaten and repulsed time and time again by spirited and motivated defenders. Western civilization would never have emerged if your logic were even remotely correct. Western civilizations have disappeared time and again exactly because they increasingly resorted to intimidation or exploitation to motivate their citizens to sustain an increasingly irrational and destructive status quo.
Only an idiot would command his forces to attack with the knowledge that even a quarter or his forces and command structure might hesitate and even refuse or withdraw or fight haphazardly or the like. If even a quarter or a fifth of your fighting force capitulate the consequence is mass retreat. It is one thing to delude and deceive the general citizenry into fighting an insane war that they ridiculously imagine will be watched live on TV like some distant sporting match; it is quite another to expect stakeholders who have at least a vague idea of what is being asked of them to blindly throw themselves into an ultimately pointless task that has no viable chance of succeeding ultimately even if it is a success.
You have to be some kind of stupid to entertain the idea of NATO troops policing all of Russia or China for years on end. Good luck getting the population to pay and die doing that for more than a month.
@Nestorian,
A bit belated (don’t know if anybody is still looking up this particular thread!) but here is a useful link debunking the original Lieber / Press 2006 study:
http://russianforces.org/blog/2006/03/speaking_of_nuclear_primacy.shtml
Regarding robustness of French and Chinese deterrences, you may want to Google for “Triomphant noise level” and for “Great Underground wall”, respectively.
You will get an idea of the -very different- paths chosen by French and Chinese to ensure survivability therefore escalation ability of their respective deterrences.